USDA Shocks the Market By Estimating Farmers Will Plant 94 Million Acres of Corn

USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum kicked off on Thursday. Leading up to the event, market analysts and traders were focused on corn acres.

USDA’s first acreage estimate showed farmers could plant more corn acres this year, but fewer soybean and cotton acres.

• Corn: 94 million acres, up 3.4 million acres from 2024
• Soybeans: 84 million acres, down 3.1 million from last year
• Sorghum: 6 million acres, down 300,000 from 2024
• Wheat: 47 million, up 900,000 from last year
• Cotton: 10 million acres, down 1.18 million from 2024

While acreage estimates didn’t really surprise some market analysts, it seemed to catch traders by surprise, as corn prices fell double digits while digesting the news.

“I suppose traders thought that maybe USDA would be just a little bit more reserved with its early estimate,” says Joe Vaclavik of Standard Grain. “I’ll tell you what, based on what we know about on farm margins and budgets, it really shouldn’t be a surprise. I’ve personally been kind of working in my head with a number that’s actually higher than 94. So the 94, even though it was higher than pre-report expectations, I don’t think it should be a shock to anybody.”

AgMarket.net’s Matt Bennett was on-site at the Ag Outlook Forum when the acreage numbers hit. He also wasn’t surprised by such a large number for corn, pointing out he also thinks it could trend higher.

“In all honesty, when you look at the economics of things, I really struggle to think we’re going to be below, for instance, the acreage we saw two years ago, which was 94.6 million acres,” Bennett says. “I thought the Outlook Forum would come out a little bit conservative. I guess I was right on that. But I do think the the overwhelming trend should be higher from here, especially looking at what the economics have been leading up to this.”

The story could be in soybeans. USDA expects soybean acres to fall to 84 million acres,

“It could be a story, especially if the yields come in light,” Vaclavik says. “I think, though, there is a narrative or thought out there that if the U.S. has a light crop, there’s plenty of beans around the world and the U.S. will just end up exporting less. That very well may be true.”

At the same time, Vaclavik adds, if farmers plant less soybeans, it puts more pressure on South America to produce a crop.

Ending Stocks Follow Acreage Shifts

More corn acres means corn ending stocks jumped 425 million bushels, but the total is still below 2 billion and likely inflated, according to Bennett.

(USDA/Lori Hays)

“Keep in mind, over the last five years, the [February number] has actually been too high verses the final number,” he says.

Soybean carryover dropped 60 million bushels, reflecting 3 million fewer acres.

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