According to Washington-based sources, Senate Ag Chairwoman Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) holds the key as to whether a farm bill can be completed this calendar year.
The unknown is whether Stabenow can work out a deal with the other farm bill players–Senate Ag ranking member John Boozman, House Ag Chair G.T. Thompson (R-Pa.) and House Ag ranking member David Scott (D-Ga.). Some say that could be at least possible after elections.
Results of the Nov. 5 elections, whenever they come, will likely help determine the odds of a farm bill yet this year.
Some say Stabenow would like another farm bill completion for her legacy items as she is not running for re-election. Others say she already has billions of dollars in additional conservation funding via the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA/Climate Act) and adequate food and nutrition funding without a new farm bill, especially relative to the Thrifty Food Plan.
The Broader Picture
While seen as a win-win for Democrats and Republicans, in the final farm bill Democrats must be content on funding and policy issues relative to food and nutrition and conservation, and Republicans must be satisfied relative to getting most if not all of the increase in reference prices contained in the House Ag Committee-passed measure.
Some long-time Washington contacts still give the odds of a farm bill this year at only 15%.
This group thinks a new farm bill will be part of an already busy agenda for a new Congress and new White House in 2025. This is the reason why some optimists think once the anchor of the elections is out of the way, the four major farm bill players can at least talk with perhaps more flexibility and perhaps more funding than the current farm bill baseline. That will depend in part on whether House Budget Chair Jody Arrington (R-Tex.) is able to get more funding beyond what is now signaled by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).
And Washington insiders continue to signal high odds for ag disaster and ag price mitigation measures to be part of a “minibus” spending package that includes Agriculture appropriations for fiscal year (FY) 2025. House Speak Mike Johnson (R-La.) does not support a year-end omnibus spending bill and will likely again push his layered approach to spending measures like last fiscal year.
