Biden Our Time Until the New Congress and Administration; Blue Wave Crashes Into Red Dam

The polls showing a “Blue Wave” seemed to have crashed into a “Red Dam.” The end results seem to reflect most Americans prefer divided government. It also shows most political pollsters are less accurate than the local weatherman.

Summarizing one word that best describes the year 2020 – nuts. We have had to deal with impeachment, a Covid-19 global pandemic, and an unprecedented 2020 election. The election results seem to show former Vice President Joe Biden as the next President of the United States, the Republicans gaining seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and potentially maintaining control of the U.S. Senate. Republicans will also pick up a Governorship and expand their controls of state legislatures. The polls showing a “Blue Wave” seem to crash into a “Red Dam.” The end results seem to reflect most Americans prefer divided government. It also shows most political pollsters are less accurate than the local weatherman.

President

As of publishing, former Vice President Joe Biden has secured enough electoral votes to become the 46th President of the United States. Biden’s apparent victory was secured in 4 key states – Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The vote differential between all these states totals around 92,000 votes - Arizona (approx.17,000) with 11 electoral votes, Georgia (approx. 11,000) with 16 electoral votes, Pennsylvania (approx.44,000) – 20 electoral votes, and Wisconsin (approx..20,000) – 10 electoral votes.

This small number of votes cast from nearly 147 million voters is quite remarkable and shows how our country remains divided politically. In 2016, out of more than 120 million votes cast, around 107,000 votes in three states (Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania) decided the election of President Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton. At the time of this article, there have been several lawsuits alleging voter fraud filed in federal court in the states previously mentioned, as well in Michigan and Nevada - no final vote counts have been certified. In December, the electors hold meetings in their States to vote for President and Vice President. In January, Congress sits in a joint session to certify the election results.

During the 2000 presidential election of George W. Bush and Al Gore, it took about 37 days to settle all lawsuits and legal challenges and that was dealing with one state and primarily one county within the state of Florida. We can all hope the 2020 Presidential race is finalized in a similar time frame. Stay tuned!

House

As of November 9, 2020, the current U.S. House of Representatives elections finalized have Democrats at 215 seats to Republicans at 196 seats with 24 races still not called. A total of 218 seats are needed by Democrats to maintain their majority. Once all votes are finalized, the House Republicans are likely to pick up around 10 new seats. Prior to November 3, 2020 many so-called expert political pollsters predicted House Democrats would expand their majority by 10 to 15 new seats. A key loss is the defeat of House Agriculture Committee Chairman Collin Peterson (D-MN), a two-time ARA Legislator of the Year Award recipient. Peterson’s 30-year career in Congress was spent advocating on behalf of America’s agricultural industry to ensure the federal government maintained a strong safety net for farmers and ranchers. The industry now will await the naming of who will be the next Chair of the House Ag Committee as Peterson’s boots will be hard, if not impossible, to fill.

Senate

The 2020 elections saw two GOP Senate incumbents (Cory Gardner, R-CO; Martha McSally, R-AZ) and one Senate Democrat incumbent (Sen. Doug Jones, D-AL) lose their re-election bids. Mark Kelly, Senate Democratic nominee defeated McSally, who was appointed to fill out the term of the late Senator John McCain (R-AZ). Kelly will be up for re-election in 2022. The current election results for the U.S. Senate stand at 48 Republicans and 48 Democrats (includes 2 Independents) with pending races in North Carolina and Alaska likely remaining in Republican control.

Over the next few months, the country will have their eyes on state of Georgia. The balance of power in the U.S. Senate and whether there remains a firewall between efforts to end the filibuster, “Pack the Supreme Court”, and an aggressive, progressive agenda will depend on the results of two Georgia Senate run-off elections that will be held on January 5, 2021. One race pits Senator David Perdue (R-GA) against Jon Ossoff, Democratic Senate nominee and the other race has Senator Kelly Loeffler (R-GA), who was appointed by Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) to fill the seat of former Senator Johnny Isakson (R-GA), against Rev. Raphael Warnock, the Democratic nominee. The winner of the Perdue v. Ossoff race will serve a new six-year term, while the winner of the Loeffler v. Warnock race will fill out the remaining two years of a six-year term and run for election again in 2022. In the words of Senate Minority Chuck Schumer’s (D-NY) “Now we take Georgia and then we change America.” The future direction of the nation now lies in Georgia’s hands.

Governors and State Legislatures

All Governors running for re-election won on Nov. 3, 2020. Republicans picked up a Governorship in Montana where there was an open seat. For 2021, this will result in the GOP holding 27 Governorships and the Democrats holding 23. The GOP was able to hold state legislative chambers in Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Texas. Republicans also flipped the state of New Hampshire’s state legislature. For 2021, this will place the GOP in control of at least 30 state legislatures and Democrats in control of 17 state legislatures with the remaining states having split control of their state house and senate chambers. The total population results of the U.S. Census, which is conducted every 10 years, determines how many Congressional seats each state will have. States lose and gain seats after every Census. The 2020 Census is nearly complete with a report likely to be issued by the end of this year or in January 2021. GOP solidifying their grip on state legislatures and Governorships will give them an upper hand in controlling the redistricting process in many key swing states.

Concluding Thoughts

The results of the Nov. 3, 2020 election show that the American electorate remains divided. This split often results in divided government. The checks and balances of the U.S. government – Legislative Branch (Senate, House), Executive branch and an independent Judiciary helps to ensure policies being adopted are in line with a majority of American voters and not veering off too far to the left or right of the political spectrum. There was no political mandate for likely Biden-Harris Administration or any new Congress. The one clear signal is a massive rejection of socialism and progressive policies. We can only hope our elected officials in Washington, D.C. listen. This continues to underscore the importance of your membership in ARA. Our team in Washington, D.C., will work through the transition to a new administration and Congress by continuing to utilize its established network in Congress and across the agencies to ensure policies continue to be realistic for the ag retailer and their farmer customers.