Longer term prices continue to look less optimistic for farmers, and farmdoc daily economists suggest farmers be prudent in starting to budget for much lower prices.
In a farmdoc daily report titled, “Increasing Pessimism About 2024 and 2025 Corn and Soybean Returns,” ag economists say that current levels for future contracts suggest that for budgeting purposes, prices for 2024 crops should be $4 per bushel for corn and $10.50 per bushel for soybeans.
“Those prices would result in low returns in 2024, far lower than the last low-price period from 2014 to 2019,” the economists stated in the farmdoc report. “Much higher costs cause lower 2024 returns.”
The economists say those budget forecasts could change due to unforeseen events, but say it seems prudent to plan for much lower prices.
“The current December futures price for corn is consistent with cash prices below $4.00 at harvest, roughly $3.80 per bushel. Given usual price patterns, one expects cash prices to increase over the marketing season, and an average cash price of $4.00 per bushel for 2024 production seems reasonable,” the economists state in the latest report.
The report says futures markets are currently suggesting roughly similar prices for 2025 for corn. With the December 2025 contract trading near $4.60, economists say that indicates a cash corn prices at harvest in 2025 that could be in the low $4.30 range.
For soybeans, economists say it’s a similar story.
“The 2024 projected price for soybeans is $11.55 per bushel, well below projected prices in 2022 ($14.33) and 2023 ($13.76),” says the report. “November futures prices have fallen since February, now trading near $10.20 per bushel. Cash price at harvest below $10 per bushel are likely, with an overall 2024 MYA price of $10.50 being an appropriate projection.”
Economists say current futures prices suggest the trend of lower prices will continue into 2025.
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