The Ag Analyst’s Briefing: Week of Feb. 13 Watchlist
Markets had a “crude awakening” last week (oil and gas stock prices gained 5%) as Russia threatened to cut oil production by 5% in March in response to sanctions. Interestingly, Dutch (-7%) and U.S. natural gas (+7%) went in different directions, and North American wholesale fertilizer prices continued to ease.
Key items we are watching this week include inflation (CPI and PPI) and retail sales reports, earnings from Andersons, Deere, Mosaic and Nutrien, and USDA’s baseline forecast.
Charts and slides to consider:
- USDA’s recent first estimate of U.S. farm income for 2023 (showing an expected decline)
- An enhanced equity market performance table showing several key indicators and treasury market yield data.
Source: Barron's
- Three Commodity Review tables (Energy, Agriculture, and Metals) sorted by monthly performance.
- A timeline showing the frequency and severity of earthquake activity in Turkey since 1990
Turkey is in one of the world’s most active earthquake zones, with land stretching over the Anatolian fault line in the north of the country that has caused large and destructive tremors In 1999, a tremor of a similar magnitude to Monday’s quakes devastated İzmit, killing more than 17,000 people. Erdoğan described Monday’s disaster as Turkey’s worst since 1939, when an earthquake killed more than 32,000 people and injured more than 100,000.
Numbers of Interest
Economic and Other
$3,863: Cost of the least expensive Super Bowl seat according to Vivid Seats and the New York Times.
15% to 20%: Estimated decline in housing prices in the Bay Area (San Francisco) today vs. first quarter of 2022.
$383 Billion: Estimate of the U.S. / China deficit in 2022, up from $354 billion in 2021.
22,000+: Number of people reportedly killed following earthquakes in Turkey and Northern Syria.
Agri-Food
980,000 MT: Amount of corn that Brazil shipped to China in January 2023 (source: StoneX)
$2.70: Price per pound of chicken wings at the end of January 2023, down 22% from last year’s Super Bowl.
12%: According to Chicago Fed AgLetter, Seventh District farmland values were 12% higher yr./yr. in 4Q 2022
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