The Battle for Rural Representation: Top Congressional Races to Watch on Nov. 3

As the number of lawmakers with direct ties to production agriculture continues to shrink, who will step up to speak for rural America? Farm Journal is proud to present Ag Vote 2026: Who Speaks for America’s Farmers?, delivering in-depth reporting from now through Election Day. Tune in for LIVE election night coverage Tuesday, Nov. 3 at 7 p.m. Central on Farm Journal TV, Farm Journal Now, AgWeb.com and YouTube.

As election night approaches, the balance of power in Washington is just one part of the story. For rural America, there is another crucial metric on the ballot: agricultural representation.

Farm Journal is closely monitoring key House and Senate races to see whether the agriculture industry will gain, maintain, or lose crucial advocates in Congress. This is just a brief look at what we are watching for as the results roll in, specifically focusing on the presence of an “Ag Voice” in Washington.

How We Determine an “Ag Voice”

Our “Ag Voice” designation is categorized by whether a candidate or current incumbent brings a strong, dedicated perspective for farming and rural interests to Congress. An individual earns this status if they possess direct agricultural ties—such as growing up on a family farm, actively operating an agricultural enterprise, or holding profound agricultural policy experience—or if they currently serve on the House or Senate Committees on Agriculture.

Top 10 Races We’re Following

Of the nearly 140 Ag Voices in the current Congress, we have identified 22 departing voices, more than 100 in relatively safe races and at least 12 in competitive races. While we are actively tracking over two dozen races, here are ten high-stakes elections that could dramatically shift the agricultural landscape in Congress based on who currently holds the seat and who is running to fill it:

• Ohio Senate (Sherrod Brown vs. Jon Husted): A Potential Gain for agriculture. The current incumbent, Jon Husted (No Ag Voice), lacks a farm background or committee presence. However, challenger Sherrod Brown (Ag Voice) grew up on a farm and was a longtime member of the Agriculture Committee during his previous Senate tenure, offering a chance to add an Ag Voice to the chamber.
• Kansas Senate (Roger Marshall vs. Adam Hamilton): A Potential Loss. The current incumbent, Roger Marshall (Ag Voice), is a 5th-generation farmer who sits on the Ag Committee. His challenger, Adam Hamilton (No Ag Voice), has no direct ag ties, meaning a flip would silence a critical rural voice.
• Iowa Senate (Ashley Hinson vs. Josh Turek): A Guaranteed Loss. The retiring incumbent, Joni Ernst (Ag Voice), provided strong representation on the Ag Committee. Unfortunately, neither candidate running to replace her—Ashley Hinson (No Ag Voice) or Josh Turek (No Ag Voice)—has a farming background, meaning this heavily agricultural state will lose an Ag Voice regardless of the winner.
• North Carolina Senate (Roy Cooper vs. Michael Whatley): A Potential Gain. The retiring incumbent, Thom Tillis (No Ag Voice), has no ag background. If Governor Roy Cooper (Ag Voice) defeats Michael Whatley (No Ag Voice), he brings deep rural roots and experience cropping tobacco on his family’s farm, adding a new agricultural voice to the Senate.
• Arkansas Senate (Tom Cotton vs. Hallie Shoffner): A Guaranteed Ag Voice. The incumbent, Tom Cotton (Ag Voice), was raised on a cattle farm. He is being challenged by Hallie Shoffner (Ag Voice), a 6th-generation farmer who operated her family’s row-crop farm. Because both share profound ties to farming, agricultural representation is maintained either way.
• Minnesota District 1 (Brad Finstad vs. Jake Johnson): A Potential Loss. Incumbent Rep. Brad Finstad (Ag Voice) is a fourth-generation farmer and chair of an Ag subcommittee. If challenger Jake Johnson (No Ag Voice) wins, the district loses its direct agricultural voice.
• Minnesota District 2 (Eric Pratt vs. Matt Little): A Potential Loss. The current incumbent, Angie Craig (Ag Voice), serves as the top Democrat on the House Ag Committee. With her seat open, the district will only maintain its Ag Voice if Matt Little (Ag Voice, co-owner of a hemp farm) defeats Eric Pratt (No Ag Voice).
• California District 22 (David Valadao vs. Randy Villegas): A Potential Loss. The incumbent, David Valadao (Ag Voice), is a lifelong dairyman and Ag Committee member representing a heavily farmed district. A victory by challenger Randy Villegas (No Ag Voice) would strip this key region of its direct agricultural representation.
• Georgia District 14 (Shawn Harris vs. Clay Fuller): A Potential Gain. The incumbent, Clay Fuller (No Ag Voice), has no ag background. However, challenger Shawn Harris (Ag Voice) operates a cattle ranch in northwest Georgia, offering an opportunity to add a new farmer to the House.
• Nebraska District 2 (Brinker Harding vs. Denise Powell): A Guaranteed Loss. The retiring incumbent, Don Bacon (Ag Voice), provided strong rural representation on the Ag Committee. Because neither candidate running to replace him—Brinker Harding (No Ag Voice) or Denise Powell (No Ag Voice)—has direct farming ties, this seat will result in a guaranteed lost agricultural voice.
  

Breakdown of Other Notable Congressional Races

Below is the complete list of notable races Farm Journal is tracking. The table is sorted alphabetically first by our Ag Voice Determination, and then by the state where the race is taking place.