Kenneth Scott Zuckerberg

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Could Stagflation, Rather Than Recession, Happen Next?
Despite reporting strong results, John Deere’s chart is telegraphing a negative message for agriculture
Uneasiness is the feeling that most describes where capital and agriculture markets are at the moment, despite ongoing positive economic news.
We are hearing that ag retailer inventories are generally full, that China has received very few new orders of glyphosate and wonder whether adverse weather in Argentina will hurt global input demand, near-term.
Two key US inflation gauges showed incremental pressure last week.
Although Treasury yields have increased over the past month (blue line in the included chart) they remain inverted, which signals “recession.”
Agribusiness business insurance programs are experiencing rate increases of 25% to 75% (and even more in certain geographies such as the Dakotas.
The only thing we know is that baseball is back…Economically speaking, 2023 has been a year of changing narrative.
There are three things on the Watchlist this week
The Fed hiked rates 25bps at last week’s FMOC meeting and indicated it will stay the course. So why are forward yields (1 year through 30 year still lower, suggesting Fed easing?)