Weather

60% of U.S. Now Facing Moderate to Exceptional Drought

Mon, 20 Apr 2026 16:54:04 GMT

The latest drought monitor shows three-quarters of the U.S. is now dealing with some level of drought or dryness. Of that, 60% falls in the D1 moderate drought to D4 exceptional drought categories, the highest level since November 2022. To put it in perspective, drought coverage has only exceeded 60% about 30 times in recent history, 25 of those during the widespread drought of 2012 and 2013.

(NOAA/NWS)

The drought and dryness picture is even clearer in the latest root zone moisture map from NASA , which shows the amount of moisture in the top 3' of soil versus a historical average.

The soil in parts of the eastern Corn Belt, the Southeast and into the western Plains is parched and in need of a rain.

The soil in parts of the eastern Corn Belt, the Southeast and into the Western plains is parched and in need of a rain.

(NASA)

Unfortunately, those areas might not see any measurable rain for a couple of weeks, causing the drought area to further expand and deepen.

Drought Monitor Shows Expanding Footprint

“The Drought Monitor has been roughly 80% now for over a month,” says Eric Snodgrass , senior science fellow, Nutrien Ag Solutions. “Remember, that’s using all drought categories, but 80% abnormally dry to exceptionally dry is a big area that’s coming out of a winter and spring with drought concerns going into summer.”

In the Southeast, he says Arkansas is showing a 15" deficit since last October. Recent forecasts for rain have been a disappointment or missed the driest areas altogether, creating a historic drought profile.

“The Southeast is enduring one of the driest springs it has had historically going back to the late 1800s. The drought there is a rough picture,” Snodgrass says. “The high plains are absolutely bone dry. Big dust storms. Nebraska’s really taking a beating. They’re pre-irrigating the crop.”

Winter Wheat Acres Could Be Abandoned

In winter wheat country, 68% of the acres are experiencing drought. Nationally, only 34% of the winter wheat is rated good to excellent. In Texas, 54% of the hard red winter wheat crop is rated poor to very poor, indicating some areas could see acres abandoned.

“I think there’s going to be a lot of lost acres. They’re waiting on rain that now if it comes, it’s almost too late,” Snodgrass says. “I was talking to a grower on the tip of the Red River, and he said he’s already had the insurance adjuster out and was looking at 1 bu. to 19 bu. yields. The crop is gone.”

(USDA)

Any Relief in the Forecast?

Snodgrass says the quick transition over to a super El Nino could provide some drought relief to those areas ... eventually.

“I think we’re going to see rains relieving the drought pressure — not alleviating, but helping in the Plains and in the Southeast in May,” he adds.

Unfortunately, Snodgrass says that relief will not last all summer.

A 2014 Repeat? Why This Meteorologist Sees 'Bumper Crop Potential' for 2026

Wed, 11 Feb 2026 17:37:04 GMT

The weather outlook for 2026 is one of “cautious optimism.” While there is less immediate concern compared to the start of 2025, Matt Reardon, senior atmospheric scientist for Nutrien Ag Solutions, says the “spring predictability horizon” remains a factor where conditions could still shift.

El Niño and La Niña are the two opposing phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. This cycle describes the fluctuations in temperature between the ocean and atmosphere in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.

“That gives us some sense of where things might tilt weather-wise, particularly in winter,” Reardon says. “In summer, there are some correlations, too.”

For many U.S. farmers, El Niño is often welcomed because it can bring increased precipitation to major growing regions, though it can also cause flooding in some areas. Meanwhile, La Niña is frequently associated with increased drought risk in the Southern Plains and Mid-South, which can lead to yield-robbing conditions if the pattern persists into the summer.

“We tend to root for El Niño, particularly in North America, as it tends to be beneficial for our growing regions with a little more precipitation,” Reardon says. “But those correlations are very far from a home run. We’re talking just a slight lean in that direction.”

He says the forecast predicts fading out of La Niña pretty quickly in spring and heading toward an El Niño, potentially by summer.

What Can Farmers Expect This Spring?

“What I’m looking at as we head toward both spring planting then summertime heat and real drought risk in June and July is that one sea surface temperature is closer to home in the Northeast Pacific,” he says. “We found, especially this decade, that as those sea surface temperatures go, our season tends to go.”

Last year, with all the drought concerns going into 2025 growing season, water temperatures in the Northeast Pacific stayed warm – actually record warm.

“We had a great growing season for the most part with plenty of moisture, if not too much, in some areas,” Reardon says. “In 2023, those water temperatures stayed a little bit cooler, and we had more drought risk.”

Reardon admits he’s learned that “cautious optimism about where things are headed” is often helpful when determining weather expectations.

As he looks toward 2026, he sees a similar start to 2014, which was a huge bumper crop year.

“But things can change,” Reardon adds. “There’s that spring predictability horizon we’ve got to leap over here.”

Is Drought Likely in 2026?

One of his concerns is that the latest USDA Drought Monitor shows some overwinter drought, which he says isn’t uncommon.

“We’ve seen a lot of that this decade. Spring rains can quickly make up for a lot of that,” Reardon says.

On Feb. 9, the Southern Plains saw a lot of grass fires. He says some of those were prescribed burns, but winds will be picking up again over the next 10 days.

“We are keeping an eye on the Southern Plains,” Reardon says. “They are getting some rain over the next seven days, but that’s an area that’s so prone to drought, especially in spring. If we see it build there and then try to leach over to Little Rock or Nashville, that can start to become a concern.”

In big yield-robbing drought years, it often flares in the Mid-South or even the Southeast over into the southern plains, first in April or May, and then tends to spread north.

“That’s a common behavior of some of these big concerning years of the past like 2006 or 2012, so we are keeping an eye on that right now,” he says. “But the good news is, in the next 10 days, we are going to get some moisture into the ground.”

Corn, Soybeans Thrive While Drought Hits Other Crops Harder

Mon, 25 Aug 2025 18:47:32 GMT

For a summer that many meteorologists predicted would be characterized by dryness over much of the Midwest, that scenario has not materialized for the most part in corn-soybean growing areas.

The U.S. Drought Monitor released August 21 reports only 5% of corn and 9% of soybean acres are experiencing some level of drought currently.

Just last week Pro Farmer released estimates from its annual Crop Tour for both crops, predicting 182.7 bu. per acre average for corn and a 53 bu. per acre projection for soybeans.

Furthermore, temperatures across much of the Midwest for the week ahead are expected to drop into a cooler-than-usual range for late August, according to the NOAA.

(NOAA)

But not all crops are in a garden spot this summer. Some are in double digit drought conditions. That includes 52% of barley, 22% of cotton, 49% of rice, 32% of sugarbeet and 31% of wheat acres.

Areas Where Dry Conditions Are Settling In
Meteorologist Jack Van Meter called out parts of the rice-growing region on Monday where dry conditions have increased in recent weeks.

“The big dis-improvement in the country, if you will, is down in the Mississippi River Valley,” he reported on AgDay TV. “We’re talking over by Arkansas, Tennessee and Mississippi. We can see moderate drought starting to spread throughout [that area].”

The No. 1 rice producting state, Arkansas, is enduring dry conditions. California, Missouri, Texas and Louisiana are other top rice producing states that are experiencing varying degrees of dryness or drought currently.

(U.S. Drought Monitor)

USDA data shows Arkansas ranks first among rice-producing states, accounting for more than 40 percent of the country’s rice production.

One of the concerns Van Meter says he is watching is what the lack of rainfall in those states will mean to water levels on the Mississippi River.

“If water levels drop, that will mean it’s harder for shipping to get through and start to transport goods out of the country and, actually, into the country for that matter, as well,” he adds.

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers reports it has been performing maintenance dredging throughout August to keep navigation channels open on the upper Mississippi. Navigation on the lower Mississippi continues to be affected by persistently low water levels, despite recent rainfall.

Rain In The Forecast This Week
Van Meter says a good slug of moisture will come in from the Rocky Mountains this week and across Oklahoma. That rain pattern will then move lower into the Southeast.

This week's precip forecast by @NOAA's @NWSWPC.

Large parts of the West finally see needed monsoon precip. The S. Plains into the Lower Miss River Basin are expected to see inches of rain. FL too.

Little to no rain for the Midwest (except MO) and Mid-Atlantic. #drought @NWS pic.twitter.com/2gt1vrEsjF
— NIDIS Drought.gov (@NOAADrought) August 25, 2025

“We’re going to be watching the Southeast for some impressive rainfall over by northern Florida and also by Georgia and South Carolina,” he says. “We could be seeing some impressive moisture moving in from the Gulf – obviously, something we’ll be keeping a rather close eye on.”

As the end of August plays out, Van Meter says it appears a dry pattern will set up for the Great Lakes area in the Midwest, just as the country heads into Labor Day weekend and the final, unofficial weekend of summer.

Parts of the western U.S., where farmers are dealing with severe (D2) and extreme (D3) drought this summer, are expected to see rain by the end of the week.

“We are going to be seeing some abnormally wet conditions, or at least wetter than normal conditions to end the month, out there in Oklahoma. That is actually going to continue through much of the Rocky Mountains and head over to the West Coast,” he says.

Your next read: How Pro Farmer 2025 Crop Estimates Compare and Contrast With USDA Expectations

Searing Temperatures In Store For the Week

Fri, 18 Jul 2025 20:37:05 GMT

Something is missing in eastern Nebraska that Dave Warner says is usually available in abundance – and then some – on his farm in mid-July: sunshine and dry weather conditions. Warner refuses to complain, though, given how dry his soils were at corn planting time in May. Still, he would be happy if Mother Nature would ease up on the moisture deliveries just a tad.

“We’ve had a lot of rain; in the last 30 days, we probably had 18.5 inches. We had an inch overnight again last night,” he said on Thursday. “We are inundated with moisture.”

Weather Outlook Just Ahead

Warner’s weather scenario might or might not change this weekend, given his area is on the cusp of a new forecast. It’s one meteorologists believe will deliver high temperatures and dry conditions to parts of the central Plains, the Upper Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic by Tuesday.

(NOAA)

But first, the National Weather Service (NWS) says those regions will have to endure strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rains this weekend. Then, those regions will see a heat dome start to build.

“We are keeping a very, very close eye on a heat dome that will be building up after this weekend,” says Meteorologist Jack Van Meter. “It’s going all the way through Wednesday, bringing sweltering hot temperatures to most.”

(BAM Weather on X, formerly Twitter)

Jonathan Erdman, senior meteorologist at weather.com, says temperatures could reach dangerously high, searing levels next week. He says, in summary:

By mid-week, temperatures in the 90s will have spread from the South into the lower Midwest. By late in the week, at least some 90s are possible in the Northeast.

Parts of the South could see triple-digit highs for several days in a row, including Texas, Oklahoma, northern Louisiana, Arkansas and Missouri.

Overnight lows in the middle to upper 70s will become increasingly common as the heat wave builds. That won’t allow much heat relief at night.

Michael Clark, with BAM Weather, says he has concerns about a lack of moisture in three states, in particular.

“If there’s a spot where we want to talk about there needing to be some moisture, it is Illinois, Indiana and Michigan,” he told U.S. Farm Report’s Tyne Morgan this past week. “They are running about 25% to 50% of the normal. Despite what anyone is saying right now, it needs to rain there.”

Warmer nighttime lows are not particularly ideal for corn production, notes Clark. But he offers farmers some encouragement as he evaluates the potential impact of current weather trends on yield projections.

“In my opinion, we are tracking close to three years – 2005, 2021 and 2024. In 2005 and 2021 we had above-trend yields, and 2024 was very big,” he says, adding for 2025: “Indications are the weather is doing what it needs to do for a very large crop to come from it overall.”

Your next read: Grains Surge Friday: Was it Weather and Did it Bottom the Market?

Parched: More Than 25% of the U.S. Is Experiencing Drought Conditions

Wed, 02 Jul 2025 20:54:03 GMT

Ron Suppes has been praying about rain for the past 10 years, asking God to send more precipitation for his wheat fields. Those prayers got answered this season, says the western Kansas farmer, based near Dighton.

“I’m not going to not pray for rain, but we’ve had enough that it’s kept us out of the field when we should be finished with wheat harvest about now,” he said on Tuesday.

Despite wheat harvest delays, Suppes says he’s happy about how area corn, soybeans, grain sorghum and pastures are looking now, especially for early July.

“They all look good here, but not as good as Iowa,” he notes. “I was through Iowa two weeks ago, and they’re way ahead of us. Of course, it’s always green there,” he laughs.

Iowa crops are off to a strong start this growing season, according to this week’s USDA Crop Progress Report. USDA rated 85% of the corn crop and 77% of the state’s soybean crop as good to excellent.

Weather conditions in much of the state have been favorable to crop growth and development.

In Washington County, Iowa, Mitchell Hora gave a two-word description of his corn crop. “It’s beautiful,” he told AgriTalk host Chip Flory.

Hora and Suppes shared their personal crop report Tuesday on AgriTalk. Listen here:

The Factor Driving Crop Conditions Across The U.S.

Nationally, USDA-NASS estimated that 73% of the corn crop and 66% of soybeans were in good-to-excellent condition in its weekly progress report released on Monday.

USDA cites favorable weather conditions for the positive ratings. The drought some meteorologists predicted last winter for parts of the central Midwest has not yet materialized.

“Nobody would have thought three months ago that we were going to have this much rain occurring across key crop areas, especially in the southern half of the Plains and in the Delta and Tennessee River Basin,” says Drew Lerner of World Weather, Inc.

The Crop Moisture Index provides a quick view of areas with a short-term need for moisture versus where there’s available moisture in the soil profile.

(NOAA)

The USDA Agricultural Weather Highlights issued July 2 acknowledges the favorable growing conditions.

“In the Corn Belt a lull in an overall wet pattern favors corn and soybean development, although a few showers are occurring west of the Mississippi River. The … mostly abundant moisture reserve is allowing earlier-planted corn and soybeans to enter reproduction without significant stress.”

What The Current Drought Monitor Shows

The U.S. Drought Monitor reported on June 24, 2025, that 25.83% of the U.S. and Puerto Rico were experiencing some degree of drought.

#DroughtMonitor 6/24: The Northwest and NV saw large degradations. Areas of the Rockies too.

The Plains to the East mostly improved or remained drought-free. But small areas did worsen in the Plains, Midwest, FL.#Drought2025 Footprint: 25.8% of UShttps://t.co/mljsjQDvLB @NOAA pic.twitter.com/UInYEWmvVM
— NIDIS Drought.gov (@NOAADrought) June 26, 2025

The percentage of crop acres experiencing some level of drought included 16% of corn acres, 12% of soybean acres and 3% of cotton acres.

Crops experiencing higher levels of drought conditions included 39% of the durum wheat acres, 29% of barley, 25% of spring wheat, and 20% of winter wheat acres.

Drought continues to build in the northern half of the High Plains, impacting rangeland and pastures, in particular, USDA reports.

For example, Montana led all states from the Rockies eastward with 47% of its rangeland and pastures rated in very poor to poor condition on June 29.

In the West, hot, mostly dry weather conditions have blanketed the regions for weeks

USDA says several Western wildfires remain active, and new fires could be ignited later on Tuesday by dry thunderstorms that are expected to occur from the Great Basin to the northern Rockies.

In the South, scattered showers are primarily confined to the lower Rio Grande Valley and areas east of the Mississippi Delta, according to USDA.

This season’s abundant rainfall has left pastures rated at least 80% good to excellent in several southern states, including Alabama, Kentucky, and North Carolina. However, frequent showers have also slowed many southern farmers’ fieldwork.

The Outlook For July Weather

John Hoomenuk of EmpireWeather.com anticipates farmers in the Central Plains will see drier, hotter conditions this month.

“Most of the long-range data we’re seeing, if you look at July as a whole, is showing some pretty substantial [temperature] numbers in the Central Plains. We’re talking somewhere between four and five degrees above normal in some areas of Kansas and Nebraska, two or three degrees above normal for the month on average, surrounding that in parts of southwestern Iowa and the Dakotas,” he says.

As for states further east, such as Indiana, Michigan and Ohio, Hoomenuk says farmers there will likely see temperatures “closer to normal” for July, based on data he’s reviewed.

“It doesn’t seem like we’ll get into that long-term heat there in those eastern regions of the U.S, so the concern level out there is pretty low right now heading into July,” he says.

Your next read: Kansas Wheat Yields, Quality Take A Hit From Disease Complex

Unexpected Impact From Illinois Dust Storm Hits Corn, Soybeans

Wed, 28 May 2025 17:45:12 GMT

It was bad enough Illinois farmers affected by the May 16 dust storm saw priceless topsoil blow off their fields and into the hinterlands. Adding insult to injury, many corn and soybean growers now face not only damaged or destroyed crops but will need to reapply fertilizer and herbicide products in some scenarios, says Ken Ferrie, Farm Journal Field Agronomist.

“If you ever tried to imagine what the Dust Bowl was like in the 1930s all you had to do was be in central Illinois that Friday afternoon,” Ferrie says. “You didn’t need your imagination to experience the Dust Bowl, you got to live it. Now, granted, it was only a few hours long. But it blew soil, it blew residue, it blew trees over, did property damage in some areas, and some of our most precious, McLean County soil was deposited in Lake Michigan.”

On Friday, May 16, 2025, an NOAA satellite captured images of a dust storm that pushed across northern Illinois, northern Indiana and the metropolitan area of Chicago. The dust storm was driven by strong winds, gusting over 60 mph at times.

(NOAA)

Not only McLean County topsoil went north to Chicago and beyond. Ferrie is concerned recent surface-applied herbicides and nitrogen were likely blown away with the soil and residue, too.

“Some of these fields that were sprayed that did not receive a rain to move it into the soil and get it activated are at risk now,” he explains. “We’ll need to keep an eye on these fields for weed escapes and the loss of nitrogen. We can make some estimates on the nitrogen losses with nitrate testing, but herbicide losses will only show up in weed escapes.”

Additional Consequences From The Storm
Ferrie, who is based just south of Bloomington, Ill., reports the dust storm generated a number of farmer requests, calls asking him to come inspect fields for crop damage. He notes that affected cornfields looked like they received a hard frost. With soybeans, some fields had plants sheared off at the ground level.

“In most cases with corn, I saw mainly cosmetic damage, and the corn will bounce back,” Ferrie says. “But in cases where the corn was covered up by dust, the crop will not come back, and it’ll need to be replanted. This occurred mainly where grass strips worked like a snow fence and the dirt piled up on the corn. In some areas buried in residue, we may need to burn that off the field before we can replant.”

Farmers who want to apply fertilizer or herbicides will benefit from holding off making any spray applications until affected crops show signs of a robust recovery, primarily in the form of new growth, he adds.

“Growth out of the whorl tells you that things are getting back on track,” Ferrie says. “We e do want to apply [herbicides] based on weed height, but this would be one time where I would put a pause on it and let this corn recover before we come back in with our post applications.”

Third Consecutive Year Of Spring Dust Storms In Illinois
Rains totaling 1” to 3” in the days following the storm, helped replenish soil moisture levels and start the recovery process in some affected corn and soybean crops.

But Ferrie points out that the dust storm marked the third year in a row such an event has swept through parts of Illinois, and the storms have cast a bad light on production agriculture in the region.

“Guys, we need to step back and take a minute to evaluate what we just witnessed,” Ferrie says. “Our soil went a quarter mile in the air, blew all the way to Chicago, closing roads and causing accidents.”

Such risks and consequences from dust storms are garnering more critical attention from the general public and scientists.

A 10-year study done by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and published by the American Meteorological Society in 2023, found a total of 232 deaths occurred from windblown dust events between 2007 through 2017.

“We found that dust events caused life losses comparable to events like hurricanes and wildfires in some years,” says Daniel Tong, research scientist at NOAA and an associate professor of Atmospheric Oceanic and Earth Sciences at George Mason University, in a news release. “Greater awareness could reduce crashes and possibly save lives.”

Haboobs, another term for intense dust storms, can occur anywhere in the U.S., but are most common in the Southwest , according to the National Weather Service. El Paso, Texas, has seen 10 in 2025 alone, reports Inside Climate News .

El Paso, Texas, has been hit by 10 dust storms so far this year.

(Tom Gill)

Two other recent examples of severe dust storms include:

March 3 – a crash involving 11 vehicles on Interstate 10 occurred near Albuquerque, N.M., left three people dead. Authorities there say heavy dust storms contributed to the crash by severely limiting visibility.

March 14 – Kansas Highway Patrol officials reported eight fatality victims from an Interstate 71-vehicle pileup that occurred during a dust storm.

Fortunately, no fatalities were reported as a result of the Illinois dust storm that occurred May 16.

Calls For Action To Reduce Dust Storm Numbers
A number of individuals and organizations in Illinois are calling for agronomic practices that will prevent or limit such events in the future. One of those is Robert Hirschfeld, Director of Water Policy at Prairie Rivers Network, an independent, state affiliate of the National Wildlife Federation

“These are man-made ecological disasters, driven by a form of agriculture that exploits and depletes the land, leaving millions of acres of soil exposed and eroding for half the year,” Hirschfeld said in a statement distributed three days after the Illinois storm. “We can’t keep farming this way.”

Hirschfeld wants the issue to be addressed formally via legislative action: “If we want real change, we have to move beyond voluntary conservation and start requiring practices that keep soil in place and pollution out of our water.”

Steps Farmers Can Take
While no one can control the weather, farmers can adjust their management practices to reduce the risk of dust storms, according to Illinois Extension. A logical first step is to reduce the number of tillage passes, especially in fields adjacent to busy highways, to begin moving toward conservation tillage.

Additionally, increased soil productivity can be achieved through reduced erosion, enhanced water infiltration, and decreased water evaporation during dry periods, according to the USDA Managing Crop Residues in Corn and Soybeans research report.

Ferrie says many of the farmers he works with are “great stewards of their land and are able to keep their soils in place.”

He advocates using a systems approach in production agriculture that will protect vulnerable soils and other resources (see A System for Every Soil) .

“There are many tools in the toolbox we can use to accomplish this,” he says. “We can work together to implement practices that will eliminate [dust storms] from happening in the future.”

Check out Ferrie’s latest Boots In The Field podcast to hear his specific recommendations and additional insights.

Will Geomagnetic Storm Watch Slow Down Farmers in the Field?

Wed, 16 Apr 2025 15:07:29 GMT

In the midst of farmers busily planting in the field, a strong geomagnetic storm (G3) watch has been issued for April 16. The Space Weather Prediction Center says geomagnetic storming conditions are likely to persist into April 17 due to the arrival of multiple coronal mass ejections that left the sun on April 13.

Could last year’s Gannon space storm, a powerful geomagnetic weather event that caused mass global navigation satellite system (GNSS) outages, impact farmers again? Kansas State University precision agricultural economist Terry Griffin says these events were not an anomaly.

What seemed like a once-in-a-lifetime space weather storm might become more of an expectation for growers in the future, he says in a release.

During the weekend of May 10, 2024, the Gannon Storm led to an assumed $565 million in losses for Midwestern crop producers.

“GNSS signal degradation associated with the Gannon Storm was unprecedented, especially at the specific timing with respect to peak agricultural activities,” Griffin and colleagues shared in ‘Impact of the Ganon Storm on Corn Production Across the Midwestern USA.’ “Lack of GNSS for planting for subset of farms reliant upon the technology led to production and economic losses.”

The Actual Anomaly
Since 1750, humans have been measuring solar cycles. The planet is entering it’s 25th solar cycle now, he points out. Geomagnetic disturbances could still occur this spring, fall and in the spring of 2026.

“It seemed like an oddity because we haven’t had something like this happen during planting time, yet the actual anomaly is we’ve had mild solar cycles as of late, which are usually 11 years,” Griffin says.

Part of the reason these outages seemed out of the blue is because this is only the third one since GPS has been commercialized.

“It’s probably what we should expect moving forward, not just for the next solar cycle, but also for this spring because we haven’t passed the maximum amount of geomagnetic disturbances for the solar cycle yet,” Griffin says. “Spring 2025, fall 2025 and even spring 2026, we should still expect this type of activity.”

What Happened in 2024?
During the weekend of the Gannon storm, there was increased solar activity, which included sunspots seen by the naked eye and several coronal mass ejections that led to part of the atmosphere becoming more dense, he explains. This caused the GPS and GNSS signal degradations.

“It was sort of a perfect storm of solar activity that even caused a radio blackout at one point,” Griffin says. “Space weather is different from terrestrial weather. Besides the northern lights, there’s nothing we can see, feel or hear from space.”

He’s quick to add this is definitely a real thing and he expects it to be an issue for the remainder of this solar cycle. In the May 2024 G5 event, outages lasted anywhere from a 1/2 day to a day. He says G3 event outages may only last for minutes and could be unnoticed by farmers.

Be Ready
Producers can best prepare themselves for future events by simply being aware and quickly determining the source of system outages, he says.

“It’s important to know whether it’s a local problem with your hardware or if it’s a global problem that is outside of your control,” he adds. “You can learn that online through the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Space Weather Prediction Center.”

Growers can find a bar chart on the Space Weather Prediction Center ’s website that denotes high geomagnetic activity for the entire planet with orange or red bars.

Geogmagnetic Storm Scales

(Space Weather Prediction Center/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)

“If you’re having problems with GPS and the bars are green, it’s probably a local issue,” Griffin says. “Call the dealer, but if the bars are dark red for nine hours or so, it’s probably the atmosphere being activated by solar activity, and there’s nothing we can do about it.”

It can be frustrating when technology doesn’t work, but he advises farmers not to panic or try to fix something you can’t fix.

“Farmers can sometimes switch to a less susceptible correction system to get them through the day if a geomagnetic disturbance occurs,” he says. “If not, go have an early dinner or see a movie.”

Your Next Read: What Farmers Need To Know About Severe Solar Event With Potential To Disrupt GPS

From Seed to Success: Plan for Your Largest Corn Harvest in 2025 with Drought-Proofing Strategies

Wed, 05 Mar 2025 21:21:21 GMT

Ground moisture levels in some parts of Corn Country are abnormally low as planting time nears. Ken Ferrie, Farm Journal Field Agronomist, addressed the issue at length in this week’s Boots In The Field podcast for growers.

Ferrie has been keeping tabs on moisture and where there are deficient areas, via the weekly U.S. Drought Monitor. Based on the Monitor, he estimates that about two-thirds of the Midwest is abnormally dry with more than half of that area already in a D1 drought.

Given the increasingly dry conditions there, farmers are asking Ferrie whether they should cut back on their corn populations, reduce yield goals or trim nitrogen rates. The simple answer, Ferrie says, is no, as conditions can change rapidly.

“With timely rains the soil profile can be reloaded with moisture quickly. We never set out at spring planning for a drought,” he says. “We want to plan for 2025 to be our biggest crop ever, because we know this moisture concern could disappear.”

Going into the season, plan A is to be prepared to grow your largest crop ever. However, Ferrie advises farmers to make a plan B – figure out how to mitigate drought risk this season if conditions stay dry.

“We can mitigate drought risk by eliminating and farming without compaction layers – getting roots to go deep quickly,” he says. “Pick the right hybrids and place them correctly in your fields. That will go a long way in mitigating drought risk.”

How farmers can go about making their plans for this season:

First, identify the hybrids in your lineup, which ones have offensive characteristics and which ones have defensive characteristics.

Second, evaluate your fields to identify where soils are offensive or defensive in nature.

Third, match the right hybrid to the right field (or part of a field, if you use VRT). Essentially, defensive hybrids go on defensive-type soils. Offensive hybrids go on offensive-type soils.

The 3 Rs Of Hybrid Selection
Ferrie says in his agronomic meetings with farmers this winter, Jared Bergan, research agronomist for Crop-Tech Consulting, Heyworth, Ill., spent a lot of time addressing the three Rs of hybrid selection – picking the right hybrids, the right placement and the right management. Learn more at Plant Corn Hybrids Where They’ll Perform The Best

A large portion of Bergan’s presentation focused on taking corn growers through what makes a hybrid defensive or offensive in its makeup.

“To maximize yield, we must capture 97% of the sunlight by the time a corn hybrid tassels, whether the hybrid is offensive or defensive,” Ferrie notes. “Capturing sunlight is a combination of several things: plant population, row spacing, plant height, leaf architecture and leaf size.”

When water is not a concern on heavy soils or irrigated soils, farmers can achieve 97% light capture by pushing up their hybrid plant populations.

When water is a concern, you still want to achieve 97% light capture but you will need to do it with fewer plants, leaving more water available per plant, so you will be lowering your planting population.

Assess Fields For Moisture
As you evaluate fields and how to match them to your hybrids, identify where water is and is not a limiting factor in each field. In most cases, this can be done by tapping into your personal experience in a field, as well as by revisiting previous yield maps.

Fields that can retain moisture and are more productive are referred to as offensive. Fields with light soils that tend to get tight on water in dry years are referred to as defensive.

Soils can vary considerably across a field, so sometimes you’ll have to make a judgment call on whether to call it offensive or defensive.

Ferrie offers this example: “If a field is 70% defensive, we’re talking about light soils that tend to get tight on water in dry years, while the other 30% has high water-holding capacity and can hold its own in dry years. With how those percentages are, we’d call this a defensive field,” he says. “On the other hand, if 70% of the field is more productive soil and can hang on in a dry year, then you have an offensive field.”

Look At Your List Of Hybrids
Once fields are identified as offensive or defensive, Ferrie says to look through your hybrid lineup to see what you have to match the fields.

So what makes a hybrid offensive or defensive? Here are three key factors to consider:

Plant Height. Defensive corn plants tend to be taller, making it easier to shade the ground at low populations.
Leaf Architecture. On defensive plants, the architecture tends to be pendulum in nature with wider and longer leaves.
Number of kernels per bushel. The third thing to evaluate is, how many kernels does the hybrid need to produce to make a bushel?

“When you lower the number of plants on defensive soils to conserve water, it’s important that your hybrid can still produce enough kernels to reach your yield goal,” Ferrie explains.
“Defensive hybrids produce typically somewhere between 55,000 to 65,000 kernels per bushel. They can get that low.”

Offensive hybrids are on the other side of the spectrum in characteristics. They’re usually shorter in nature and are more upright in leaf structure. To capture 97% of available sunlight, they need to be planted at higher populations.

“Kernels per bushel in our offensive hybrids tend to be in that 70,000 to 80,000 per bushel range,” Ferrie says.

Engage Your Seedsman In The Process
Many hybrids fall into the space that’s in between defensive and offensive: medium-tall, semi-pendulum in nature; or medium-short, semi-upright in nature, for example.

“It’s why for many growers, this might be a conversation you need to have with your seed supplier,” Ferrie says. “They can help you match hybrids up with the fields that are best suited to them. On those defensive fields, match them with taller, pendulum-type hybrids that can be planted at lower populations. On the offensive fields, line them up with the more upright, shorter-statured hybrid varieties that can be planted at higher populations.”

Ferrie notes that corn growers often lean toward having a lineup of offensive, racehorse type hybrids. But it’s important to have some defensive hybrids in your lineup. The reason: having a lineup of only offensive hybrids – when you likely also farm a number of defensive-type fields – will not mitigate drought stress.

For example, Ferrie says planting a short-statured, upright leaf hybrids at a 38,000 population on defensive ground could be setting yourself up for yield losses. “Not being able to close the canopy quickly or sufficiently will allow temperatures to climb to a point where they will stress that hybrid. Catalog your farms and your hybrids, and match them up accordingly,” he says.

“This is where a good seedsman is worth their weight in gold. They can help you find defensive hybrids for your defensive ground. Now, most likely these hybrids will not be contest winners. You’re looking for base hits here, not home runs. But by getting the right hybrid on the right field, you’ll mitigate drought risk every year, and not just when you think a drought is coming,” Ferrie adds.

Your next read: Understanding Ear Flex

Listen to Ken Ferrie’s Boots In The Field podcast here:

Will the U.S. Corn Crop Bake In the July Heat? What You Need to Know About the July Forecast

Thu, 12 Sep 2024 15:29:13 GMT

The possibility of a hot summer has been advertised for months. As meteorologists watched the transition from El Niño to La Niña, the thought it would be a hot summer, but also dry in the southern tier of the U.S., dominated conversations.

Now that July is here, and the market is focused on the forecast, it’s been an extremely wet start for the heart of the Midwest, with flooding issues along both the Missouri and Mississippi rivers. In fact, 18 gauges along the Upper Mississippi River are at major flood stage, and the Missouri River continues to swell with more heavy rainfall this week.

With eyes on the forecast for July, one ag meteorologist says it looks fairly favorable for much of the Midwest.

“I think we’ll make it through without really critical heat, that’s the way it looks to me, with a lot of heat staying west, south and east of the heart of the Corn Belt,” says Brad Rippey, USDA meteorologist. “One wild card will be the Atlantic Tropic basin — incredibly active already so early this season. That could infuse some moisture into the southern and eastern United States, possibly even the Midwest, as we move forward. As we know from past years, even dry year soybeans can benefit from late rain. So that’s something we’ll be keeping an eye on.”

Rain Chances in July

National Weather Service (NWS) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) recently released its 30-day precipitation and temperature outlook . NOAA is forecasting below normal precipitation in the Pacific Northwest and down really through the central and southern Plains, above normal in the upper Corn Belt and along the eastern seaboard.

Rippey says he agrees with NOAA’s 30-day outlook, especially considering the ridge parked across the country that will create more chances for rain.

“We’ve got this ridge that’s pretty well established. It’s going to move from day to day, but that is going to allow some Gulf and Atlantic moisture to work its way into these cold fronts. There’s also going to be a component where the ridge is strong enough that it doesn’t allow the cold fronts and moisture to reach into other areas. And so we are going to be seeing that drying trend across parts of the northern tier, Pacific Northwest, and on into the parts of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest, little bit drier, but then there’s still should be plenty of moisture.”

Rippey says the active weather pattern will continue throughout early July.

“From the standpoint of the Upper Midwest, maybe a little bit of bad news, but for just about everybody else, there could be some good news in this July forecast with some scattered to widespread showers,” he says.

According to USDA’s weekly crop progress report, 11% of the nation’s corn crop is already silking, 5 points ahead of average. The crops need moisture but also not too high of heat. But Eric Snodgrass, science fellow and principal atmospheric scientist for Nutrien Ag, says some areas need a break from the wet weather right now, but they could also use some heat units.

“Honestly, if we can get a little bit of drier weather into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest after this, no one’s going to complain. And on top of that, we need some heat in that area, as well. So, some of the crops are behind in the North,” Snodgrass says.

Snodgrass points out the area he’s worried about the most is the southern Plains.

“If you take a look at that particular map, you notice I’ve got this dry bullseye somewhere around, Texas to Kansas, maybe back over toward Arkansas and parts of Missouri, and given the fact we’ve got such warm ocean temperatures in the North Pacific and in the North Atlantic, historically, that tends to anchor a ridge that sits right in that particular part of the country. So, it’s always a situation every summer of who’s stealing rain from someone else, right? When it comes to the way the pattern sets up, what I just worry is what if it gets stagnant at some point late July or to August? But overall, I think the CPC’s got a pretty good handle on what we think we might see for July.”

The July Heat

What about the heat? Much of the U.S. is expected to see above normal temperatures throughout July, according to NOAA’s 30-day outlook. However, Rippey thinks the core of the Corn Belt won’t bake like the map leads you to believe.

“You notice the little donut hole that is really focused across some major production areas of the Midwest. And that is, I think, the key to this July temperature outlook,” Rippey says. “If you picture the ridge of high pressure that’s been dominating this early summer, think of it as the top of a trampoline. Somebody jumping on that trampoline just kind of bouncing away. That would be the cold fronts trying to knock away the top of this ridge. The Climate Prediction Center thinks that it will be enough, bouncing on this ridge to keep temperatures down a little bit across the Upper Midwest, maybe extending on into other parts of the Corn Belt. That would be good news.”

30-day temperature outlook

(CPC )

Rippey says with 11% of the corn crop silking at the end of June, the early July forecast is a critical time for those crops.

“High probabilities above normal temperatures as you move into the western U.S. That is probably going to be true for the Deep South and parts of the East as well,” Rippey says. “So the real question becomes, how much can we keep this ridge knocked down during the critical month of July.”

Last summer was dry for much of the Midwest but also hot. However, the wildfire smoke provided a bit of a blanket to protect crops from the heat. Some agronomists and meteorologists argue last year’s weather proved the crops are more resilient to drought than they are heat.

This year, the West is already baking in consecutive days of triple-digit heat. Dallas-Fort Worth set a record this week for the highest minimum temperature with a reading of 83°F. That beat the previous record from 1998.

Snodgrass says those elevated nighttime temps are something to watch.

“That’s been a concern all season. We thought that this would be a year that was a hot summer, but a lot of that heat coming in overnight lows that were so very warm. If you can remember, when you keep the overnight lows so warm, you also pump out a bunch of moisture into this,” Snodgrass says.

He says the concern with the forecast is the lack of heat forecast for the Upper Midwest, including northern Iowa, Minnesota and South Dakota.

“We had farmers in those areas who had to replant in late May, early June,” Snodgrass says. “The issue there is that if you plant like 105-day corn in late May, your first frost date runs into before you’ll be black layer. And so, there’s some concern in that area. We need some heat, but just keep us under 92°F, right? And that’s going to be the trick as this goes forward.”

Meteorologist Talks Emerging Weather Trends And The Ag Supply Chain

Tue, 02 Jul 2024 21:06:42 GMT

Weather is a critical component to the success of any growing season. But Jon Davis, chief meteorologist at Everstream Analytics, says it’s going play an even bigger role from start to finish - eventually changing where specific crops are grown and how they are transported after harvest.

“The climate has absolutely changed things. Agriculturally, there are winners and losers,” Davis says. “For example, the Dakotas have gotten wetter over time. They’re able to support corn and bean development further north up in the prairies. You have a longer growing season and there’s less worry about spring and fall freezes.”

Davis recently joined an episode of the Top Producer podcast to discuss overall weather trends he’s seeing and what the long term impact could be for agriculture.

“There are areas that will be more vulnerable with a higher risk for heat or wetness. Others may actually see an improvement in the overall weather condition for better yields across those areas,” he says.

Beyond the growing season, he shares climate change and the uptick in extreme weather events will have a significant impact on the agriculture supply chain.

“How do extreme weather events affect how we ship and how we move commodities? How does it affect ports, rail lines and trucking overall?” he says. “When moving finished crops with wetter conditions and higher humidity levels, the overall time frame food products can last is shortened up a bit.”

What’s In Front Of Us
As for the 2024 growing season, Davis says he has been tracking a system that could be the key to the overall quality of this year’s crops.

“There’s a ridge of high pressure that has quite a history associated with it. Anywhere it’s gone, it’s produced very hot and extremely dry conditions,” he says. “That ridge is starting to move across the lower 48.”

He’s anticipating unfavorable conditions to strike at the worst possible place and time.

“Places like the prairies will have a lesser impact, but there’s higher risk for corn and soybeans across the Midwest - especially going into July with corn pollinating across those areas.”

Catch up on all episodes of the Top Producer podcast .

NOAA: Expect a Warmer Than Average Winter

Wed, 03 Nov 2021 20:42:21 GMT

With snow and cold already hitting many areas, you may be wondering if this is a sign of things to come this winter.

USDA Meteorologist Brad Rippey says while the new NOAA winter outlook map shows no below normal temperatures, that doesn’t mean we’re going to have a year without winter.

Rippey says, “We are actually expecting fairly significant incursions of cold air, particularly across the Plains and the Midwest.”

Overall, averaged across three winter months, the southern two-thirds of the U.S. should see above normal temperatures. That won’t necessarily be true for the northern reaches, where normal temperatures and more moisture are expected this season.

Rippey adds, “We’ve got a lot of excess soil moisture and some low land flooding across the North. As we get into the colder months and the higher precentage of that falls as snow, you’ve got double trouble really setting up for some of those northern production areas. We’re going to have a lot of moisture that’s going to be frozen in or locked into the soils and then we’re going to expect to put a lot of snow on top of that.”

After 20 million acres of prevent plant in 2019, Rippey says he’s worried 2020 could be a repeat. “I’ll go out on a little bit of a limb here and say that we do expect to see some big trouble with spring field work in states like the Dakotas and on into the upper Midwest due to the excess soil moisture this fall and the expected heavy snow coming for this winter.”

Historic flooding in the Midwest impacted nearly 17 million people during 2019, However, NOAA says this summer and early fall, drought developed rapidly across the South, and dryness now persists in 20% of the country. That’s expected to continue in south Texas and California, but the biggest predictor of winter weather may be the lack of a predictor.

“Again, we don’t have El Niño or La Niña to talk about this winter. We’ve got a neutral oceanic condition in the Pacific, and so a lot of the forecast may be driven by other factors that we don’t normally consider and are a little bit less predictable,” said Rippey.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center updates the three-month outlook each month. The next update will be available November 21st.

Related article:

NOAA Winter Weather Outlook