WEATHER

Weather Extremes Take Their Toll on the Winter Wheat Crop

Fri, 20 Mar 2026 14:15:16 GMT

While winter wheat is a crop that seems to have nine lives, the dramatic weather extremes are taking a toll on the crop.

Winter wheat may have already been damaged in January and February due to extreme cold and the lack of snow cover in many areas.

Throw on top of that freezing temperatures at the start of the week and now heat and continued dry conditions, which are stressing the crop.

Freeze Damage Early This Week
Freeze damage was noted in Texas up through Kansas with below freezing temperatures to start the week according to Brady Huck with Empower Ag Trading and a farmer near Dodge City, Kansas, then followed by a huge warm up.

“Out here in Dodge City, Kansas, you know, over the weekend, I woke up Monday morning, I think it was 10 degrees out here. So not what you want to see the middle of March when that growing point starting to come above the surface out here. A lot of vegetation protecting that growing point, I think. But if you drive around these fields out here and you can see some of the damage to the vegetation from that freeze event, then you turn around and we’ve got 90 degree days here coming into the week. So weather is pretty dynamic and wild.”

Already Freeze Damage in January and February
And there was already possible freeze damage in January and February due to the lack of snow cover accordign to Drew Lerner, ag meteorologist with World Weather Inc.:

“And there is some concern that there’s damage done out there. And having a warm and dry spring season is the absolute worst thing to do for a possibly damaged wheat crop. You need it to rain. It’s got to rain a little bit more frequently than usual, and the temperatures need to be kept in a mild regime. Instead, we’re going to be seeing quite the opposite. It’s going to be quite warm at times.”

Drought Monitor Tells the Story
This week’s U.S. Drought Monitor is showing 55% of U.S. winter wheat areas in some level of drought which is further stressing the crop according to Huck.

‘Right now the big problem out here in the west regarding weather is drought and will the rains come,” he says.

(USDA )

On Monay the state ratings showed Oklahoma with only 18% of the crop rated good to excellent, down 6% from the previous week and the lowest level since 2018.

In Texas only 15% of the crop is in good to excellent condition, down 1%.

Lerner says the crop conditions are deteriorating further with the extreme weather. “The temperatures have been so warm that we have evaporated huge amounts of moisture from the soil, leaving that crop limping along.”

Forecast Continues the Pattern
And unfortunately the forecast looks to stay warm and dry for the next 8 to 14 days.

U.S. HRW wheat dryness is expected to intensify through at least next weekend as upper-level high pressure blocks energy and low humidities persist.

That will be accompanied by heat into the weekend and then next Tuesday through Thursday.

A large system likely moves across the central U.S. at some point March 31 - April 5, but it is unclear if it will move slowly with good rains for HRW wheat.

Washington Pear Growers Face Record Flooding and Unusual Pest Management

Fri, 19 Dec 2025 14:44:43 GMT

Last week, approximately 78,000 residents in the Skagit River floodplain in Washington state were ordered to evacuate as back-to-back atmospheric rivers saturated the region. The water surpassed historical marks, notes Robert Ezelle, director of the Washington Military Department’s Emergency Management Division.

“What we have seen in actuality is it came through right at about the record flood level,” he told AgDay. “That doesn’t mean to say that we’re out of the woods. We’re not, because as the waters come down here, they’re still going to be gaining strength. And as they hit the Burlington, Mt. Vernon area, we’re still expecting to see about 2 feet higher than record flood level. It’s going to be most likely worse than you experienced back in 2021.”

Last week’s storm impacted many parts of Chelan County, as well as other parts of the Pacific Northwest, where officials evacuated Washington State University’s Northwestern Washington Research and Extension Center in Mount Vernon due to high water and flood warnings.

The impact stretched across the Cascades into the Cashmere Valley, where Randall Chipman, a certified crop adviser in Cashmere Valley between Wenatchee and Leavenworth, scouted area orchards to assess what he saw. In a video he posted on LinkedIn , a pear block in Cashmere that usually sits 10 feet or more above the waterline had trees pulled up with roots almost 5 feet in the air.

“The main concern now is, alright, where are we going to get our topsoil back?” he says in the video. “We have all of our roots exposed. It’s going to be more detrimental than maybe just having regular soggy feet. Now we have to wait for next year, but keep an eye on it.”

Chipman says a bright spot to the flooding is that it hit during dormancy, when trees have already shut down for the winter. Prolonged wetness isn’t necessarily as much of a concern as exposed roots. And, he says in the winter, most orchards are waterlogged with snow, so this is almost the same thing.

“Realistically, dormancy will help,” he says. “We’re not worried about waterlogging. If it was during this season and we had fruit on the trees, then you have no oxygen, and then that’s it’s an issue.”

Chipman says some pear growers in the area have experienced flooding, but nothing to the extent that happened last week.

“It’s going to be this annoying thing that we’ve never really thought we had to deal with,” he says.

Downed trees with exposed roots are a main concern for pear growers in the Cashmere Valley in Washington, says Randall Chipman, a certified crop adviser.

(Photo: Randall Chipman)

And he’s also optimistic that all this rainfall could help limit pear psylla pressure next growing season, though he says he needs to monitor pest pressure next year to see if his assumptions play out. Instead of psylla overwintering under the limbs of nearby pine trees, it could be those rains could have washed the psylla out of the trees, he says.

“We’re essentially doing an overhead wash right now, which is a pest management strategy for washing psylla out of a tree,” Chipman says.

He points out that growers in the Hood River of Oregon have much less pear psylla pressure, which could be due in part to the amount of rainfall the area gets compared with the Cashmere Valley.

“It’s not exactly on the packing side of things, but it would be interesting to find out,” he says. “It’s definitely an interesting horticultural phenomenon of sorts.”

How Current Weather Trends Are Shaping Global Grain Production

Tue, 21 Oct 2025 20:36:51 GMT

Kevin Marcus of Marcus Weather Consulting gives the areas to watch as harvest goes into the home stretch in the northern hemisphere and the growing season is shaping up in the southern hemisphere.

Looking at the U.S., South American and Chinese weather patterns, here are his takeaways on the impact and outlook of weather:

U.S. harvest season is a mirror of 2024 in many ways.

Marcus says for many in the Midwest, September and October are echoing patterns this time last year being warmer and dryer than average.

He notes two earlier weather patterns in the year are bringing attention to their impact on yields.

In the eastern corn belt, the prolonged heat may have dinged yields.

“We had lots of warm night sin July and August,” he says. “For some, it was the highest numbers since 2010 and 2011.”

When nighttime temperatures remain elevated, the respiration steals from grain development resulting in shallower kernels.
In the western corn belt, the focus is on the favorable conditions for disease—including the expansion of southern rust.

“We’re seeing southern rust stealing 40 to 50 bu/acre in fields that were left untreated,” Marcus says. “Iowa was the epicenter of the problem, and if just 10% of the fields weren’t sprayed properly at a 50 bu loss, that’s 5 bu. off the state yield. And 1 bu. off the national yield.”

You can hear more about his weather analysis and the effect on yield estimates here:

La Nina is a factor.

Marcus is watching the development of La Nina, warmer waters in the eastern Indian ocean and systems and patterns developing in southeast Asia. He says it all adds up to polar jet getting invigorated.

As such, he sees “more of a slug” for the finishing weeks of corn harvest across the Midwest.

And this winter, especially compared to last year, he sees wet heavy snow across the northern plains starting in November.

Questionable start for the southern hemisphere.

As Brazil and Argentina’s growing seasons get kicked off, there’s cooler and less wet weather.

“This isn’t typical. It usually rains every other day. Now it’s only raining once a week. And temperatures are popping above 100 degree. Young crops are being stressed early,” Marcus says.

Looking ahead, he notes there aren’t any “red flags” for the weather dramatically effecting yields, but there is definitely risk in the forecast.

China’s domestic production is a question mark.

Marcus says a developing story to watch are yields for the Chinese corn crop.

“We just came through seven weeks of exceptional rain in the north China plains,” he says. “When corn can’t be harvested, and you’re getting rains every other day for seven weeks, you have an idea of what that quality will look like.”

When a comparable weather pattern occurred in 2022, Marcus points to private estimates stating a loss of 30 million metric tons.

The Key to Reversing Low River Levels and Shoring Up Critical Infrastructure

Fri, 03 Oct 2025 18:55:11 GMT

Mississippi River levels are low this fall season—for the third year in a row.

“The timing couldn’t be worse,” says Jon Davis, chief meteorologist at Everstream Analytics. “October is a critical month for barge transportation in the Mississippi River Basin. This is especially the case in the agricultural sector as crops are harvested in the Midwest and transported mainly by barge to New Orleans.”

He says this year’s river levels mimic 2024 conditions. Barge restrictions were put in place in September, and currently, the low-water restrictions for southbound vessels on the Lower Mississippi River from the U.S. Coast Guard include:

• Cairo, Ill., to Lake Providence, La., MM 869-483: Drafts no greater than 10'6" and barges no more than six wide.

• Lake Providence, La., to the Gulf of Mexico, MM 483-303: Drafts no greater than 11' and barges no more than six wide.

“August was a very dry month in the Central and Eastern Corn Belt and in the Delta, and in mid- to late August, we began to see that response in the river system overall. That was the time frame we began to watch things very closely,” Davis says. “Based on September being very dry, it looked like the overall decline in river levels was going to continue and we’re going to get into a bit more of a restrictive environment, which would certainly impact logistics on the river system.”

The weather patterns of the past seven weeks accelerated river level issues.

“The combination of recent warmth and long-term dryness has led to this decline in river levels, and if we look at the river levels now compared with the last 10 years, we’re at some of the lowest levels we’ve seen,” Davis adds.

Ohio River at Cairo, Ill. Oct 1, 2025

(USGS)

Mississippi River at Dubuque, Iowa on Oct. 1

(USGS)

Davis says there’s not much recharge for the river in the forecast — and the greatest source for getting levels back up is unfortunately a tropical system, such as a hurricane.

Mississippi River at Memphis, TN on Oct. 1

(USGS)

Mississippi River at New Orleans on Oct. 1

(USGS)

“That’s what helped last year—the storms that developed in October,” he says.

Looking at the forecast, the next seven to 10 days doesn’t show much promise for precipitation along the Mississippi River Valley or the Ohio River Valley, which notably feeds the lower Mississippi. However, the end of October could turn wetter, which might slow the finish of harvest but could recharge the vital artery in our inland waterways.

Cotton Bolls Are Opening, Harvest Aids On Deck

Thu, 25 Sep 2025 18:38:54 GMT

Temperatures in the 80s and 90s are welcomed this week across West Texas and the Texas Panhandle, as growers seek the “open fall” that helps finish the cotton crop. Hot temperatures and a few storms are forecast in central Texas. Oklahoma and Kansas are also enjoying favorable growing conditions.

The forecast for the Mid-South is similar, with the Memphis and Little Rock areas projected to see clearing skies after several days of rain. A few showers are expected to yield to sunny skies in the Jackson, Miss., and Delta regions further south.

Of course, forecasts can change, but hopefully not enough to slow crop maturity. On Sept. 14, USDA reported bolls opening nationwide were at 50%. That increased to 60% this past Monday, Sept. 21. Key cotton state boll openings included:

70% in Alabama
79% in Arkansas
76% in Georgia
22% in Kansas
89% in Louisiana
75% in Mississippi
71% in Missouri
57% in Oklahoma
77% in Tennessee
53% in Texas

Tennessee cotton started slowly due to the wet spring. “We had good potential after the rain, but the faucet cut off in the summer,” says Tyson Raper, University of Tennessee Extension cotton specialist in Jackson, noting the state’s cotton acres are down. “The early cotton looks good, but the later stuff is rough due to drought. About 80% of the early bolls are open. The later cotton bolls are approaching 60%. We’re barely into harvest. Yields should approach 900 pounds per acre.”

Drip-irrigated field in Hockley County, Texas, should see defoliation in early October.

(Kerry Siders)

The recent rain is forcing a more aggressive approach to defoliation. “The concern now is for regrowth,” Raper says. “Much residual fertilizer wasn’t taken up by plants in the summer dry conditions. It’s now being absorbed after the rain. We may need higher rates of Folex. As we see more regrowth, we’ll likely need a second shot.”

In the South Plains, Kerry Siders, Texas A&M AgriLife Extension IPM agent, Cochran, Hockley and Lamb counties, says it will likely be Oct. 20 before cotton strippers hit the fields. “Harvest aids will go out in early October on irrigated fields,” he says. “If they’re applied on Oct. 3, it will take 10 to 14 days before fields are ready to strip. Some dryland fields that receive a shot of paraquat could see harvest start earlier.”

The forecast for the South Plains-Panhandle region calls for temperatures in the high 70s and low 80s for the next few weeks. “We don’t see much of a forecast for lower temperatures,” Siders says, adding application of a boll opener, such as Ethephon, should help get plants ready for harvest.

“Remember, the Ethephon label requires the product come in contact with the boll for it to open,” he stresses. “Just getting it sprayed on top of the plant isn’t enough. Coverage is the key. We recommend a quart of Ethephon mixed with 10 to 15 gallons of water per acre.”

He projects strong yields if the weather continues to cooperate. “We’re seeing good cotton,” he says. “It’s still near the range of 9 nodes above cracked bolls NACB. At that rate, plants need to open another 4 to 5 nodes on their own. Irrigated fields could yield in the 3.5-bale range,” he says. “Some dryland fields could hit 200 pounds per acre.”

In central Texas, Tyler Mays, AgriLife Extension IPM Agent, also recommends a solid defoliation program: “We’re in the middle of harvest, but some late-planted fields are getting ready for defoliation. With the cooler weather, Folex or Finish 6 are good replacements for Ethephon.”

Southern Texas Blacklands yields are above average, he says, with dryland yields ranging from “2 bales per acre to as high as 4 bales. Our average yield is 1 to 1.5 bales.”

Jostling with Jassid

As Georgia growers begin harvest, the “catastrophic” jassid leafhopper is on their radars, says Taylor Sills, Georgia Cotton Commission executive director in Perry. “Georgia is ground zero for the new insect threat. Some acres have been severely affected by it,” he says.

“Bidrin has been the pesticide of choice for jassid control, but Carbine is also being used. As an industry, we have a lot to learn about this insect.”

Meanwhile, he says only a small percentage of Georgia cotton has been harvested. Maturity varies, as some acres were planted after June 1. “In far northern Georgia, growers are hoping for a late fall and winter,” Sills says. “Overall, we could have an above-average crop, but there’s a long way to go.”

Ben McKnight, AgriLife Extension cotton specialist in College Station, says no jassid leafhopper damage has been reported in Texas. However, large retailers are being monitored by the Texas Department of Agriculture to determine if imported ornamental plants that were the source of jassid are contaminated with the insect.

McKnight says harvest in the Upper Gulf Coast “is progressing nicely. Yields are slightly above average.”

How Much Could the Flash Drought Cut Corn and Soybean Yields Due to a Poor Finish?

Tue, 02 Sep 2025 18:01:53 GMT

August was one of the driest in history for some areas of the U.S. — like Ohio and Indiana. The onset of flash drought may have trimmed yield potential for both corn and soybeans, and it could also result in an earlier start to harvest.

Eric Snodgrass, senior science fellow with Nutrien Ag Solutions, says it was an abrupt change from too much rain early in the season.

“All of a sudden, the Bermuda high leaves and now we start watching the Delta, the mid-South and the eastern Corn Belt go very dry,” Snodgrass says.

Those drought conditions showed up in the most recent U.S. Drought Monitor, authored by USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey.

Is the U.S. Corn and Soybean Crop Getting Smaller?

“We still need moisture in the southern and eastern Corn Belt into the Northeast. [We’re] also keeping a close eye on the western drought, which has come on strong this summer,” Rippey says.

(Brad Rippy, USDA )

Flash Drought Develops
However, some areas of the eastern Corn Belt are seeing a flash drought, which just came on in the last three weeks, according to Snodgrass.

“In fact, there’s been a three-class degradation and drought in the mid-South and along the Mississippi River down there in the Delta,” Snodgrass says.

The bull’s-eye of the drought in the eastern Corn Belt is even more obvious when you look at a climate map that ranks the precipitation according to deviation from normal.

“It starts right here where I am in east central Illinois and then moves across a big section of Indiana and gets into Ohio — but don’t forget Kentucky and Tennessee,” Snodgrass says. “During that summer time frame, were there pockets of drought developing? Yes. Where I am here, when you subtract evaporation from the precipitation total, we’re 8" off of normal.”

(IEM )

Extreme Heat Also Had a Role
He says the flash drought was also a result of heat in June through most of August.

“Our biggest stressor is the fact that we saw, when compared to average, an additional 25 nights where the low temperature was greater than 70°F. We just never brought the temperatures down enough at night to really allow the crop to rest. Even though it’s cool now, it wasn’t that way in June, July and most of August,” Snodgrass says.

Is It Cutting Yield?
That likely impacted back-end kernel depth, or the fill on corn. When combined with increased disease pressure, it potentially trimmed yields.

Missy Bauer, agronomist with B&M Crop Consulting, says: “When we have poor conditions — whether heavy disease pressure, a lack of nitrogen in some areas or maybe dry weather — all of those influence the finish of that crop. It can be so variable based on that. If you just do math alone and you say, ‘Well, I got 90,000 kernels in a bushel versus 60,000 kernels in a bushel’, that’s 100 bushel difference per acre.”

Rains are even more critical in August to fill out the soybeans, so both crops may be going backward from the August WASDE.

Don Roose, U.S. Commodities, says: “We had the Pro Farmer [Crop] Tour going through, and some others, coming up with a lot of disease issues out here in both corn and soybeans. So, its very realistic that we’ve seen the biggest numbers in corn and soybeans from a yield standpoint going forward.”

Snodgrass says though there are upcoming chances for rain in some of these drought areas, it may be too late for the corn and may not fill in all the holes in the soybean crop.

Silver Linings: Farmers Share What’s Gone Right & Wrong This Season

Fri, 08 Aug 2025 16:42:29 GMT

What you can’t hear, reading this brief article, is the laughter.

In some cases the farmers attending this year’s Farm Journal Corn & Soybean College were laughing because the stories others in the room were telling were just downright funny.

In other cases, it was the laughter of commiseration – the ‘I understand-what-you-are-going-through’ kinds of chuckles.

Either way, the camaraderie was cathartic. It lifted spirits, gave encouragement and reminded this group of farmers they were with people who understood their worries but were doing their darnedest to press on and find silver linings in a year marked by dismal markets.

Below are comments from five different farmers who shared how their growing season is going. I hope you’ll be able to relate to some of their experiences:

East-central Iowa: “We’re just sitting in a pocket that’s had ample rain. Planting went well. The corn crop looked fabulous the moment it came out of the ground, and it just hasn’t looked back. I think it’s going to be a whopper.”

Northern Illinois: “I’ve got several neighbors coming up and saying mine’s the best crop they’ve seen, but we’ve been blessed with rain. I’ve got cattle in a (feedyard) so having extra rain isn’t always the greatest thing for that, but it is what it is.”

Southwestern Ontario, Canada: “It was a cool, wet spring. Most of our corn took at least three weeks to get out of the ground. We’re just starting to tassel now here (in late July). The crop is very uneven. There was a lot of burn, a lot of urea was put on 4-foot-tall corn. We ran out of 28% and 32% UAN. People bought it in October, and it never showed up.”

Eastern Oregon/central Washington. “We pretty much irrigate everything. If you’d look at the Google Earth map, everything you see brown is dryland wheat and everything you see that’s green is irrigation. I grow primarily fresh market potatoes. The corn’s our rotation. Everything we do, onions, alfalfa, etc., is irrigated. We don’t (have) rain. We’ll turn the switch on and start pumping. It’s costly. Hearing you guys talk about two, three inches of rain, I’d love to have it, but it never comes.”

Northeast Kansas: “Everything has been like perfect (conditions) for our corn all the way through, so far. We’ll see if that carries out to yield, but right now the corn looks fabulous. 2014 was our best crop ever, and we think we’re going to be right there this year, if things continue the way they have.”

Also, check out the brief video I did with two growers during the event. I appreciated their willingness to share their thoughts on what’s gone right for them this season. They did their best to share some words of encouragement for anyone who’s watching. My sincere thanks – Pat Gannon, Colfax, Iowa, and Doug Bontekoe, Marion, Michigan – for letting me talk with you between sessions.

Your next read: Ready For What’s Next: How An Iowa Farmer Survived the ‘80s Farm Crisis and Now Invests In Others

Ag Commissioner Calls Deadly Flooding in Central Texas "Devastating"

Tue, 08 Jul 2025 17:58:06 GMT

Its being called one of the deadliest U.S. floods in decades.

Devastation in central Texas over the holiday weekend as heavy rain and flooding on the Guadalupe River created a 26 to 30 foot wall of water.

Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller says while the priority in Texas is on search and rescue for the over 40 people still missing, flash flooding hit 21 counties, accounting for about 10% of the state.

He says they won’t have an accurate damage total for at least a month, but the loss to agriculture will be significant.

“If you can picture this in your mind, in less than 24 hours there was the same amount of water that goes through Niagara Falls in a month and a half. Now that’s that’s a lot of water by anybody’s standard. It came early in the morning, 3 a .m. pretty much unannounced,” he describes.

Miller says they haven’t assessed the agricultural damage yet but this is a large production area for cattle, sheep, goats and hay, but also vineyards and wineries.

“But I can tell you firsthand that we have over hundreds and hundreds of miles of fencing destroyed, barns, structures wiped out, homes wiped out, farm equipment, tractors underwater, implements washed down the river, crops underwater, crops washed out. We’re finding dead livestock, cows, and top of trees in the river bottom. So it’s the impact on agriculture is going to be pretty large,” he says.

Miller says they’re helping farmers and ranchers with supplies and opening up the STAR or State of Texas Agriculture Relief fund, plus the agriculture mental health hotline to all Texans.

He says, “I have opened up our hay and feed hotline. If anybody needs feed or hay, call that. You can find it on our website TexasAgriculture .gov. Also, if you want to donate or even donate transportation, we could use that. Number two is our emergency response hotline or agri -stress helpline. That’s probably the most important one.”

Texas AgriLife Extension, including Disaster Assessment and Recovery agents and County Extension Agents, also mobilized over the weekend to support Kerr County.

The devastation comes as Texas farmers and ranchers are still recovering from one of the largest wildfires in U.S. history just a little more than a year ago.

Heads Up: Space Weather Could Disrupt GPS Signal This Week

Sun, 01 Jun 2025 17:01:55 GMT

The National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration has updated its expected arrival of a G4 severe geomagnetic storm. Initially expected to be observed June 2 to June 3, it’s now potentially ending earlier by June 2.

These space weather events can disturb the Earth’s magnetic field and at this severe level cause “more frequent and longer periods of GPS degradation.”

“If you’re finished planting, have no spraying to do, or otherwise too wet to get into the field, this solar storm may not matter for production agriculture even for the most susceptible states,” says Terry Griffin with Kansas State University. “Given the time of year, several hundred thousand acres of peanuts are left to be planted in Georgia (74% planting progress as of last week). Without RTK (not just GPS but sub-inch accuracy RTK), a 11% yield penalty is known at planting due to uncertainty of AB line when digging, the topic of my current research. In Kansas, corn was 85% planted as of last week and most crops have been planted on schedule or ahead of the 5-year average, but spraying and other midseason operations are still vulnerable.”

He adds Kansas winter wheat harvest usually begins mid-June so it won’t be affected by this storm.

Are these events normal?

Griffin says accurately predicting solar storms is more difficult than terrestrial weather.
“One analogy is to think of predicting geomagnetic disturbances on Earth as compared to the familiar tornado season. We know that in Kansas every April and May we can expect tornadoes in our area; when we may have a tornado watch, sometimes a tornado warning, and less common for an individual homeowner to be directly affected by a tornado,” he says. “Geomagnetic disturbances are similar: every 11 years we should expect a variety of “watches” and “alerts” due to increased solar activity before quieting down for about the next seven years until activity ramps up again.”

However space weather brings an even greater level of uncertainty for what the precise impacts on Earth will be. Just because there’s activity measured from the sun, it doesn’t always arrive at Earth in a predictable pattern.

“Activity on the sun does not always arrive at the Earth, observed coronal mass ejections (CME) can go in the opposite direction or even be a “near miss”, just like a tornado,” he says. “Instruments can detect CMEs several minutes after they occur, and even when material is coming toward the Earth it may take a few days before we know if we’re being affected.”

What can farmers do?

“GNSS outages caused by solar storms should be expected to be the norm, at least during solar sunspot number maximums that occur about every 11 years,” Griffin says. “At the very least, farmers should expect GNSS outages associated with solar storms during sunspot maximum; spanning maybe three years of the 11 year cycle.”

Griffin says solar storms can occur any time of year, and he points to some historical evidence suggesting increased frequency of geomagnetic disturbances near the spring and fall equinoxes.

Farm Journal reached out to Griffin first thing Monday morning for an update. He said the solar storm “arrived a day early...it was moving really fast” and would likely be over by Monday afternoon. He did not hear from any farmers about GPS outages or issues with satellite lock on their farm equipment as of Monday morning.

NOAA did record a G4 level solar event in space occurring on Sunday, June 1, however, by Monday morning at 8:45 am EST it had weakened to a G1.

Griffin says farmers should check the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center hompage (www.swpc.noaa.gov) on a regular basis this summer before heading out to spray or do other field work.

“That May 10th event (last year) was not a once in a lifetime event,” Griffin warns. “We need to keep our eyes open for the next one.”

The “next one” could happen anytime in the next 12 months, or not at all, he believes. Griffin says we’re in the middle of what some scientists call the “battle zone” of solar activity and the current conditions are expected to last for the next year. Once we get to next summer, Griffin says, scientists are projecting a “quiet period” for the next six or seven years before space weather and solar storms start to ramp back up in the early 2030s.

“The previous solar cycle we were in was really quiet, and the one we’re in right now is normal,” he says. “We need to be ready for these events.”

Rain Slows Record Start to Iowa Planting Season, but Farmers Optimistic About Early Finish

Wed, 23 Apr 2025 12:48:51 GMT

Before the weekend rains in the central Corn Belt, farmers in Iowa were off to a record start to planting with 18% of corn and 11% of soybeans in the ground, well ahead of average.

That was true for Jeff Reints who says, despite the setback, he’s still on pace to be done planting by the first week of May. Reints started planting corn at his farm in northeast Iowa, near Shell Rock, on April 8.

“This is definitely our earliest start,” he says.

Reints, who farms 5,500 acres with his son, Clay, and Bruce Swinton, says early field conditions were ideal.

“The ground was just perfect so we felt like we had to take advantage of the conditions,” Clay says.

They strip-till phosphorus, potassium and a third of their nitrogen before planting corn in the spring. No-till beans are seeded simultaneously, which is a bit of a frost risk for both crops.

Jeff says, “We did have beans in ahead of the April 15 soybean crop insurance day, but both planters have been running,”

Getting over several thousands of acres dictates planting corn and beans at the same time, but Jeff says the risk is also worth the reward.

“A lot of times with these early beans, we see a 5 bu. to 7 bu. yield bump, especially if we get delayed and it’s mid- or late May or even early June occasionally.”

The same can be said for the yield potential on early planted corn, as Reints says the crop pollinates before the intense summer heat.

“With these modern hybrids, their yield punch is that flex of the kernel size, kernel depth or weight per ear. If you can still finish that hybrid early to mid-September when we still have some decent growing degree days, you can pack a lot of weight into that ear of corn,” Jeff explains.

Iowa farmers intend to plant 600,000 more acres of corn this year, and an early spring can often entice even more acres.

But Reints stuck with his normal rotation.

“Probably the reason why: I still have hope for this bean market. Corn does tend to be a little more profitable, but there’s some other factors. One of them is rootworm control — that can be a challenge,” he explains.

A soybean processing plant nearby and an ethanol plant across the road also tips his decision.

“We have a heck of a strong market right here in our backyard, so that makes it very, very convenient for us and profitable,” Reints says.

After 3" of rain over the weekend, the farm’s planters are parked with about 50% of their corn and beans in the ground. Reints is confident they’ll finish in early May, which is still ahead of normal and hopefully will give them a leg up if drought predictions materialize.

“This could be a challenging year, but if you plan for a failure, you’re going to have a failure,” Reints adds. “We’ve planned a full production, and we’ll roll with the punches.”

Your Next Read: Iowa Farmers Report Breakneck Planting Pace, Some Even Say They’ll Finish Planting Corn This Week

U.S. Braces for a Hotter and Drier Fall as La Niña Looms

Wed, 11 Sep 2024 20:31:57 GMT

If predictions hold true, this fall could be a hotter and drier season across much of the U.S. According to the Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), unusually warm days are still ahead for parts of the country during the meteorological fall, which spans from Sept. 1 to Nov. 30.

Seasonal Temperature Outlook

(NOAA)

The temperature outlook for September through November 2024 favors a warmer-than-normal season, with the greatest probabilities — exceeding 60% — expected in New England and parts of the Southwest. The West, particularly Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Utah, is likely to experience an unusually warm September. On the opposite coast, Florida and much of New England are also trending warmer than normal. Conversely, while southwestern Alaska may see below-normal temperatures, northern Alaska is more likely to experience above-normal warmth.

La Niña, known for bringing dry, warmer-than-average conditions to the southern half of the country, is favored to develop during the September to November period, with a 66% chance of formation. Once established, there’s a 70% chance it will persist through the winter of 2024-2025. Though La Niña hasn’t officially started, signs of its arrival are reflected in NOAA’s fall weather predictions.

Seasonal Precipitation Outlook

(NOAA)

As the weather pattern strengthens in the coming months, the U.S. might see an extended period of warmth and dryness, particularly in regions already feeling the heat.

Your Next Read: It’s Okay to Celebrate Your Wins

El Nino Coming Back?

Fri, 20 Nov 2020 05:12:06 GMT

(Bloomberg) -- La Nina is dead. Long live El Nino?

A weather pattern known as La Nina that has worsened drought conditions across the U.S. Great Plains has faded, according to the U.S. Climate Prediction Center. But it could be replaced late this year by one called El Nino, which often roils agriculture and energy markets around the world.

La Nina and El Nino are the terms used for fluctuations in ocean temperatures and atmosphere in the equatorial Pacific that can cause large-scale changes to the global climate. Conditions are now neutral, though the potential for El Nino has increased, according to the center in College Park, Maryland.

“La Nina is gone,” said Michelle L’Heureux, a forecaster at the center. “We did not issue an El Nino watch because the probabilities are still not that high, but we wanted to at least notify folks there is a possibility.”

The problem facing meteorologists is forecast models about El Nino and La Nina aren’t very good at this time of year. Many predictions about El Nino and La Nina made in the Northern Hemisphere’s spring have fizzled in the past, L’Heureux said. But La Nina probably won’t be coming back for a third year, and the chance of an El Nino forming between November and January is 49 percent, up from 48 percent last month.

El Ninos, which occur when the ocean warms and the atmosphere reacts, can bring torrential rains to parts of South America, depress winter storm tracks through the U.S. and -- if they arrive early enough -- cut the number of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic.

‘False Alarms’

“At this time of year the false alarms of some of these models is fairly high this has to be taken into consideration,” L’Heureux said, adding that it gets easier around July and August.

The last El Nino, one of the strongest on record, left farmers from Vietnam to Africa struggling with drought, triggered powerful Pacific typhoons and hurricanes and helped push the Earth into a series of its warmest years on record. There is a good pool of warm water across the Pacific, so if the atmosphere does edge toward El Nino “it has a good source to tap into,” L’Heureux said.

The La Nina that just ended probably did play a role in the drought across the lower Great Plains, which has damaged hard red winter wheat throughout the region, L’Heureux said. Almost 89 percent of Kansas is dealing with drought, while just under half of Texas and Oklahoma were also struggling as of May 1, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor in Lincoln, Nebraska.

Tuesday, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology also said the Pacific is in its neutral state and will probably remain that way into September.

Copyright 2018, Bloomberg