Weather - General

Don’t Rush The Replant: Field Conditions And ROI Outweigh The Calendar

Thu, 14 May 2026 20:34:56 GMT

Corn and soybean growers facing slow emergence, shrinking planting windows and cool soils shouldn’t reach for the replant button too quickly, say University of Wisconsin’s Harkirat Kaur and Shawn Conley. They emphasize that field conditions, stand uniformity and return on investment matter more than the date on the calendar.

When damage occurs in corn, the first step is to diagnose what happened to cause the loss, advises Harkirat Kaur, Extension corn specialist at the university.

“Are you seeing stand loss because of seedling issues? Was the hybrid vigor not there? Is there waterlogging? Those things are important to understand, because replanting a field which is damaged is still an extra cost that we incur,” Kaur says.

She believes stand uniformity often matters more than the plant population for corn.

“A uniform stand at a low population is better than having a stand which is at a higher population but has quite a few gaps in it,” she says. “No. 1, it will impact your overall nutrient uptake for the entire field. Secondly, it will also impact your overall operations as you move further into the season.”

Calendar date, surviving stand quality and hybrid maturity all have to be weighed together in the decision.

“If you are looking at a surviving stand which is less than 70% of what your original target was, then you might want to go for a replant,” Kaur says. “But is that replant going to be this soon? It depends if the field is clearly showing no signs of recovery, showing a complete loss of uniformity across the field.”

In many cases, she recommends patience – especially when a frost or hail event enters the picture.

“It is always good to give the crop some time to recover,” she advises, particularly when hail strikes while the growing point is still below ground. “Most of the corn plants in May or early June have their growing point still under the ground (in Wisconsin), and those plants often have the ability to recover from these stresses.”

Running The Corn Replant Math

To frame the replant decision, Kaur walks through a replant return-on-investment scenario for a southern Wisconsin field that was planted May 5 with a full-season 113-day hybrid.

Extension corn specialist Harkirat Kaur shared this example of when replanting would deliver more ROI than sticking with the existing crop. The decision to replant would make sense, depending on how many acres would be able to deliver this financial advantage.

(Harkirat Kaur)

In her example, a stress event drops the stand from a target of 34,000 plants to around 18,000 — roughly 60% to 65% of the original population. That moves expected yield from about 215 bushels per acre to a range of 130 to 160 bushels, or roughly $602 per acre in gross income at current price assumptions.

Replanting later in May means giving up some yield potential to fewer heat units, but it may still pencil out.

“With replanting, the yield potential comes down to about 80% to 85%, which brings the number to approximately around 180 bushels per acre,” she says. “Then we need to account for the replant cost — the cost for new seed, the cost for your fuel, and the time that you’re spending.”

In her example, even after those expenses, the net return on replanting comes out ahead.

“That would bring us to a net of around $675 per acre,” Kaur says. “We are having anywhere around a net advantage of replanting of about $70 to $72 per acre, which could be a bigger number when we are looking at hundreds of acres.”

Still, she frames replant as a decision of last resort.

“Replanting only when the ROI is likely to be positive is critical,” she says. “Keeping ROI over all the operation in mind is the No. 1 thing.”

Nitrogen, Natural Gas And Timing

Kaur also links replant timing to nitrogen management and volatile natural gas markets.

“Natural gas is very critical for agricultural production, because it drives the production of our nitrogen fertilizers,” she says. “When we are looking at overall gas price instability, it reflects in our agricultural cost anywhere between two to eight weeks when it is happening at the global scale.”

Before deciding to replant, she urges farmers to know where they stand on nitrogen availability.

“We need to ensure how much nitrogen is already in the ground and how much nitrogen is still available to be used for the crops,” she says. “Doing another soil analysis might be of use. It might help save the cost of applying more nitrogen, or also putting in hours of applying that fertilizer.”

Kaur says split nitrogen application strategies become more valuable in a tough economic year like this.

“Protecting existing nitrogen investment is critical,” she says. “If you (can), plan for a sidedress. Then replanting before the sidedress is something that can help you save some of your time and also some of your money.”

For Soybeans, ‘Don’t Change Anything’ — Except Row Width

On the soybean side, Shawn Conley, Extension soybean and small grains specialist at the University of Wisconsin, offers his take on next steps at this point in the season.

“In short, basically, don’t change anything except maybe narrow your soybean rows up if you can,” he says. “

Most of his university research plots across Wisconsin are already planted, though some beans are still sitting in dry soil waiting on a rain.

Conley adds that he expects Wisconsin farmers to plant roughly a half-million more soybean acres in 2026 than they did in 2025, based on current projections and spring conditions.

Prioritize Corn Now, Finish Beans After

For growers juggling both crops, Conley says the yield penalty curve has flipped solidly in favor of corn.

“At this time of the growing season, where we are sitting in May, we’re really in this significant decline in yield penalty for delayed planting in corn versus where we are with soybean,” he explains.

“We’re obviously losing yield by delaying soybean planting, too, but not to the extent that we are with corn,” he adds. “It pains me to say, and I tweeted this out last week — it’s time to prioritize corn planting, if possible, if the ground is fit.”

His message to farmers: get corn wrapped up, then come back and finish soybeans.

Seeding Rate And Replant Thresholds

Conley does not see a need to bump soybean seeding rates for now, even with cooler conditions.

His economic analysis shows little payoff to cutting rates aggressively at this point, once seed cost and yield are both considered.

Optimal seeding rate for planting would be 100,000 seeds per acre, even in mid-May, according to Shawn Conley. “But, that really doesn’t take into effect delayed canopy and management of waterhemp,” he notes. For replanting considerations, Conley says he tells farmers that unless they have under 60,000 plants per acre and actively growing, his advice is “don’t do anything.”

(Shawn Conley)

“Optimal seeding rate would be 100,000 seeds per acre, even in this May 13 timeframe,” he notes. “But, that really doesn’t take into effect delayed canopy and management of waterhemp.”

In high weed pressure, Conley says most farmers should stay with about 140,000 seeds per acre unless they have a “very strong weed management plan on the waterhemp.”

On replant decisions, his threshold is clear.

“Generally, what we tell farmers is that unless you have under 60,000 plants per acre and actively growing, don’t do anything,” Conley says. “Don’t even touch that crop.”

If stands fall below that mark, he recommends what he calls a repair plant, not a full reset.

“If it is under 60,000, just do a repair plant, which means you don’t start over from scratch,” he says. “You just go into that field, set the planter at an angle so as not to run over or disturb any of those existing growing plants, and then just plant into your existing stand.”

“The population that’s in the field right now has a higher yield potential than anything you’d be putting in the ground today,” he adds.

Consider Row Spacing

Row spacing is the one area where Conley does advise a change for mid-May and later planting — when farmers have the equipment to do it.

“As our yields have increased due to earlier planting, the yield difference between wide rows and narrow rows shrank,” he says. “However, as we get into lower yield potential — i.e., later planting — then we see those yield differences still remain.”

That shows up particularly in 30-inch rows planted in mid-May and later.

“The longer it takes from planting date to when those soybeans hit R3, the smaller the yield difference between row spacings,” he explains. “Because we’re delayed planting, the number of days between when you plant today and when you get to R3 is going to be in that 50- to 60-day range. You’re going to see a yield penalty if you stick with the 30-inch rows.”

“If you have the capacity — you still have a 15-inch row planter and you maybe haven’t been utilizing that — I think you need to be able to break that out and use that for finishing off your soybean planting,” he says.

‘We Need Rain’: Dry Fields Stall Corn Planting

Thu, 14 May 2026 15:06:23 GMT

Planting season sounds different across central Kansas this year. By mid-May, planters usually run full tilt, pushing long days and short nights as growers race to get corn, soybeans, and grain sorghum into the ground. Instead, silence hangs over many fields. Drought-stressed soils, soaring fertilizer costs, and mounting economic pressures have kept many farmers from even starting, according to Matt Splitter.

“We’ve had 1.2 to 1.5 inches of rain this year during a window where we should be at 28 inches,” says Splitter, who farms in the I-35 corridor between Kansas City and Wichita. “It is dry. I can’t even find the right words for how dry it is.”

The data backs up his frustration. Approximately 65% of topsoil moisture in Kansas is currently rated as “short” or “very short,” according to the May 11 Crop Progress & Condition Report.

#DroughtMonitor 5/12: Drought worsened in large parts of the Northwest and Plains. Also the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic.

Improvements in AZ, CO, and the Southeast.

Mixed for WY, S. Plains, South, Northeast.#Drought2026’s Footprint: 51.3% of the USAhttps://t.co/mljsjQE3B9 @NOAA pic.twitter.com/ONOWe9IEfP
— NIDIS Drought.gov (@NOAADrought) May 14, 2026

On a recent school run, Splitter looked across empty fields that would typically be full of machinery.

“I took the kids to school and didn’t see one machine in a field — no tillage, no applications, no planting,” he told Chip Flory, host of AgriTalk. “Planting progress here is non-existent.”

Personally, Splitter gambled early on planting his corn, hoping the scant moisture near the soil surface would be enough to get a stand.

“We went early, thinking we were probably making the wrong decision,” he says. “We had just enough moisture for germination. The corn is up, but it can’t hang in there much longer.”

The National Picture

Corn planting in central Kansas, other parts of the High Plains and in the Southeast has been slow-going this spring. However, some states are surging ahead. Nationwide, 57% of the 2026 corn crop is in the ground, outpacing the five-year average of 52%.

The Crop Progress Report indicates the national average is being buoyed by high-efficiency corn planting in parts of the mid-South and Midwest:

The Early Birds: Tennessee and Kentucky are nearly finished, reporting 92% and 87% completion.
Midwest Movers: Iowa leads the I-states at 72% planted, while Illinois sits at 54%. Minnesota is at nearly 70% completion.
Emergence: Nationally, 23% of the crop has emerged — trailing last year’s 26% due to cooler, drier soils across the Central Plains.

Farming From A Desk in Kentucky

In central Kentucky, millennial farmer Quint Pottinger is planting corn from behind a desk, watching his fully autonomous tractor crawl across his fields, thanks to a computer screen. Pottinger says technology is his primary weapon against the brutal economic environment U.S. farmers are dealing with.

High expenses led him to equip a 100‑hp tractor with a Sabanto retrofit kit, sell his big-frame 8,000‑series tractors and 40‑foot planters, and move to a smaller 20‑foot planter. The result: he’s running a lot slower, but cheaper.

“We sold two large tractors, two big planters. That was the only way we knew how to cut costs in this economic environment we’re in, and we had no idea if it would work,” Pottinger says.

The trade-off is speed, but the gain is efficiency. “I can slow this planter down to 2.5 miles an hour to get the right depth as the soil dries out,” he adds.

Despite a smoother start than the flood-plagued springs of the last two years, weather remains a hurdle. A sudden frost during pollination “dinged” his wheat crop, causing a 20% loss in some areas.

The one bright spot? His rye grown for the whiskey industry is looking good. “It just grinds through this weather and keeps going. It’s a whole different animal,” Pottinger says.

The Fertilizer Squeeze

For both farmers, the drought collides with a second crisis: fertilizer prices. In Kansas, Splitter is trimming his nitrogen rates by 25% to 30%.

“We’re so dry that even if you apply fertilizer, the risk of volatilization is just too high,” Splitter explains. “We’re not spending as much money, because it wouldn’t do any good anyway. But there’s no truly ‘good’ decision here — it’s a perfect storm of bad options.”

Moisture outlook for farmers in Nebraska and Kansas is DEPRESSING. Opportunities this weekend are isolated in nature, and anyone who gets a drink probably deals with severe weather impacts. Another opportunity in late May, early June.

30-day outlook from EPS weeklies: pic.twitter.com/a36c7FuXWQ
— Andrew Pritchard (@skydrama) May 14, 2026

In Kentucky, Pottinger’s attempt to lock in prices failed when global political shocks in the Strait of Hormuz voided his deferred pricing contracts. He was forced to buy at market price — when he could find supply at all. He worries the fallout will last years, especially if natural gas production for nitrogen doesn’t fully recover.

“This should be a problem for 2027, not 2026,” Pottinger says. “I fear farmers will get taken advantage of in both seasons, potentially stretching into 2028.”

Searching For Optimism

Despite the stalled planters and market anxiety, both men are looking for reasons to stay positive — be it through cost-saving technology or policy shifts like higher ethanol blends that could drive demand.

“In tough times like this, everybody’s trying to find something to be optimistic about,” Splitter says. “We should be that way as an industry as a whole. We shouldn’t be pitting one guy against the other. That’s not what American agriculture is about.”

For now, optimism for Splitter and Pottinger depends on a simple, old‑fashioned variable neither farmer can control.

“We need rain,” Pottinger says. “We need rain now.”

Hear the full planting discussion and more on AgriTalk at the link below:

From Football to Farming, 2026 is a Season of Ups and Downs

Wed, 29 Apr 2026 19:12:09 GMT

An early start to planting season doesn’t mean Cody White’s worries are out of the woods in DeWitt County, Ill. On Monday, 1.5" to 5" of rain as well as hail, straight-line winds and tornadoes hit his area. This year, White’s beans were planted earlier than ever before, April 14, which means he expects he’ll have to replant.

“We were off to almost a picture-perfect start here,” he says. “That has now been flipped on its head.”

However, the first-generation farmer is accustomed to changing directions. White’s NFL career is helping him make the game-time decision to navigate the highs and lows of the 2026 season.

From NFL to the Farm

After a standout collegiate career at Illinois State University, where he started as tight end and later moved to the offensive line, White signed with the Houston Texans in 2012 as an undrafted free agent. White’s third season was looking up when he ruptured his Achilles tendon.

(Cody White)

“That shut my year down. I had to have it restructured, repaired, tried to come back. It wasn’t the same. It wasn’t enough time,” he says. “I fought, fought, fought, and then finally there comes a day when football is done with you, and that’s just when my time was.”

The shift in 2016 forced him to pivot toward a new profession. Today, White farms with his father-in-law and sells seed for Wyffels Hybrids. He notes that the transition from the football field was more natural than some might expect.

“Football and farming — there’s a lot of similarities,” White says. “They both have an offseason, the planning, the game planning, executing that plan and knowing when to change it.”

Adjusting the Game Plan

Changing the game plan is exactly what White has had to do over the past three years. This growing season, expensive fertilizer and rising diesel prices are the primary problems he is trying to tackle.

While White secured his fertilizer for this year, he admits that diesel costs are at the top of his mind.

“I wish I would have booked our spring use back in December or January,” White says. “It was sub-$3 then. It’s one of those things that are out of your control, right? You just kind of control what you can control.”

To manage the squeeze, White says they are cutting back where possible. But he says there is only so much he can trim before it impacts his crops.

Concerns Over Market Concentration

White is keeping a close eye on the numerous dynamics in the fertilizer industry. He’s glad to see members of the president’s Cabinet meeting with industry leaders to discuss rising costs.

“I’m all for capitalism, but at some point, when there are three companies running everything, they’re able to dictate,” White explains. “We watch commodity prices go up, and now fertilizer prices are up. We’re just trading dollars constantly.”

In a game of pennies, or inches, White thinks most farmers will find a way to make the numbers work for the remainder of this year. However, he thinks 2027 could prove tough for many farmers.

“Football is a game of ups and downs,” White says. “You’re never too down; you’re never too up. That’s kind of the world we’re living in right now.”

(Haley Bickelhaupt)

Crop Progress Throughout the Midwest

According to the latest USDA reports, approximately one-quarter of the U.S. corn and soybean crops are now in the ground. Despite a pattern of spring storms moving across the Midwest, farmers are finding windows of opportunity to advance the 2024 planting season.

Northwest Iowa: Emergence Underway

In Northwest Iowa, Matt McCarthy is seeing significant progress. McCarthy has wrapped up corn planting and is roughly 75% finished with his soybeans. He expects to finish soybean planting by the end of the week. Progress on McCarthy’s farm is currently ahead of last year’s pace, largely because recent rains have missed his location.

“Yesterday [the crop] just was spiking through, and then with this little bit of rain really softened the top, and it’s coming up pretty nice,” McCarthy says. “It’s cold, probably 53 degrees right now, but you can row it. Those fields planted on the 14th and even some corn on the 17th are spiking through.”

Minnesota and Northeast Iowa: Rain and Cold Slow Momentum

Near Mankato, Minn., Chris Schenk reports that his soybean planting was completed last Saturday. He managed to seed more than 200 acres of corn before being sidelined by three-quarters of an inch of rain on Monday. While Schenk doesn’t expect to return to the field until early next week, he notes that roughly 60% of farmers in his area have already finished.

Farther south in Cresco, Iowa, Darrick Barnikle is still waiting for the right window. While fertilizer applications are nearly complete, planting has not yet begun on his farm. Cool temperatures and scattered showers have kept planters in the shed for most growers in the area, with Barnikle estimating only 5% of local corn and soybeans are planted. With a drier forecast ahead, activity is expected to ramp up midweek, though growers remain cautious of a forecasted dip to 32°F Friday night.

Southwest Iowa and Beyond: Navigating Variable Rains

In Percival, Iowa, Pat Sheldon reports that weekend rainfall was highly variable. Despite the scattered totals, planting progress remains strong in his area. Sheldon estimates that 75% of the corn and 20% of the soybeans are already in the ground, with planters expected to roll again later this week.

Meanwhile, for Chris Harrell, recent rains will likely keep fieldwork on pause for most of the week. Harrell currently has about two-thirds of his soybeans planted, but corn progress sits at roughly 20%. He hopes to return to the field by the weekend.

Assess Soybean Frost Damage: Ken Ferrie Urges Patience, Replanting Discipline After Hard Freeze

Wed, 22 Apr 2026 15:53:31 GMT

Earlier this week after a series of storms and subfreezing temperatures swept through central Illinois, agronomist Ken Ferrie walked his March-planted soybean test plots south of the Bloomington area and didn’t like what he found.

“We had a substantial frost, reports of temperatures from 29 to 32 degrees, with the frost hanging around three hours or more,” Ferrie says. “Things are kind of crunchy in the grass this morning.”

That crunch underfoot translates into real damage in soybeans. Some plants, Ferrie says, are not going to make it.

“The worst hit are soybeans in the unifoliate stage or more and that were planted in our low ground,” he notes.

Illinois wasn’t the only state where soybeans were hit by frost. Weather reports from Monday and Tuesday indicate a late-season cold snap brought frost and freezing temperatures to at least four additional key soybean-producing states, impacting parts of Iowa, Indiana, Michigan and Ohio.

According to the USDA Crop Progress report released on April 20, roughly 12% of the national soybean crop had been planted. States like Illinois and Indiana were slightly ahead of their five-year averages, making crops there more vulnerable to this specific frost event.

Don’t Rush To Replant, Be Disciplined In Your Approach

Ferrie describes a clear set of visual cues growers can use to evaluate frost damage in their crop.

“Look for unifoliate leaves that are dark and deflated, and the cotyledons have a dark color,” he says. “The biggest telltale is the stem has no turgor pressure right below the cotyledons.”

He notes that those beans with discolored cotyledons and limited turgor pressure will require more time to see if they will refire at the cotyledon node.

Ferrie urges growers to take a systematic approach to evaluating frost-damaged soybeans with these four steps:

Check bean growth stage and field position (low ground vs. higher areas).
Inspect unifoliate leaves and cotyledons for dark, deflated tissue.
Pinch stems just below the cotyledons to feel for turgor.
Flag concerning areas and return in a couple of days to reevaluate survival and stand uniformity.

This bean is at the VC growth stage. While leaves look nipped and are discolored, what matters even more is what’s happening just below the cotyledons. Ferrie says there is no turgor pressure in the stem underneath the cotyledons. Turgor pressure serves soybeans a number of ways, including support for the movement of nutrients and water. “This plant is going to dry up and die on us and not make it,” Ferrie says.

(Crop-Tech Consulting Video)

This plant shows some leaf damage and possible stem damage just below the upper leaves. However, turgor pressure lower in the plant looks good. This plant is likely to survive, but Ferrie says farmers would want to reassess plants like this a few days following a frost to make sure.

(Crop-Tech Consulting Video)

Young soybeans, like this one, handle frost better than plants at VC and older because they are closer to the ground, allowing them to benefit from soil warmth, and they have thicker, waxy cotyledons. This plant is going to do fine.

(Crop-Tech Consulting)

Once you’ve assessed damage, the questions then are, how many beans survived, and how uniform a stand remains?

Replant decisions, Ferrie emphasizes, should be based on surviving plant counts and uniformity, not on first impressions the morning after a frost. That will take a few days to assess.

Why Risk Planting Soybeans In March?

Ferrie addressed the broader strategy that put March-planted beans at risk in the first place — and why many growers benefit from planting early.

“Guys ask me why plant beans in March, when you can plant them April 15,” Ferrie says. “If you can plant them April 15, not much is gained. But if you get rained out at May 1 or later, you could definitely miss the early flowering window.”

That early flowering window, he notes, remains a key driver of soybean yield potential. The risk of frost is the tradeoff.

“So that risk of early planting and dealing with frost and the need to help them up with a hoe and things like that, that always needs to be weighed against missing the early flowering window,” he says.

Go Time For Planting More Soybeans

Ferrie says the next few days are a green light for planting soybeans in central Illinois.

“If you don’t have your full-season beans planted by April 24, you may want to switch to your shorter-season beans, giving them a better chance at early flowering. Our early flowering window is closing for these full-season beans,” he adds.

The freeze may claim some of the earliest soybeans, but Ferrie insists growers still have tools to protect yield — from switching maturities as key dates approach to making informed replant calls based on stand counts and plant response.

Younger soybeans typically handle the cold and frost better.

“Population is, here at the campus, the last emerging beans, still in the cotyledon stage, are in good shape,” he says. “And the beans that we plant in the covers are protected well.”

Ferrie’s message to farmers this week is clear: get out and assess your crop, but don’t rush to replant. “By the end of the week, we’ll know how rough this frost damage is, and we’ll reassess replanting decisions after that,” he says.

You can watch Ferrie’s brief video on how to assess soybean damage here .

Illinois Farmers Sidelined by Rain and Storms, as Southern Farmers Plant at Record Rates

Wed, 22 Apr 2026 15:21:30 GMT

While many Southern farmers are shattering speed records for the 2026 planting season, planters are sidelined for many farmers in the Midwest who are facing wet conditions. For the father-and-son duo of Dave and Chris Harrell, the 2026 season is off to a slow start. However, the corn and soybean farmers in Hancock County think the slight setback could be a setup for a successful season later.

Chris and Dave Harrell test the planter in Carthage, Ill.

(Haley Bickelhaupt)

“[There’s] little to nothing going on at all this week,” Chris Harrell said April 17.

“I know we’ve had roughly five-and-a-half inches in the last in the last two weeks,” he adds. The Harrells received 2 more inches of rain and storms last weekend.

The nation’s corn crop is currently 11% planted, sitting 2 points ahead of the five-year average. Much of that momentum is coming from Illinois and Indiana, which both had a big week in the field. Illinois is now 13% planted, and Indiana follows closely at 14%. However, the western Corn Belt is seeing a different pace. Iowa is off to a slow start, with just 2% of its corn crop in the ground as of this week.

Soybean planting is moving even faster relative to historical norms. Nationally, soybean planting is 7 points ahead of the five-year average at 12% of the soybean crop planted.

Harrell says farmers south of his family’s farm in Carthage, Ill., are further along planting. The Harrells planted one field of beans March 30 before rain paused their efforts. With 40 years of experience under his belt, Dave Harrell thinks the rain won’t set them back too far and that it will helpful in the weeks to come.

“We’ve got ample time,“ Dave says. “You know, it’s still middle of April, so we’ll be fine.”

Shown is the Harrells’ bean field as of April 17, 2026.

(Haley Bickelhaupt)

Navigating the Bottom Line: Diesel and Inputs

While the rain may eventually prove to be a blessing in disguise for yields, input costs, specifically fuel, are weighing heavily on the books. According to AAA, the average diesel price in Illinois this week is approximately $1.80 higher than it was this time last year.

“The diesel prices, I think, is No. 1 top of mind subject right now,“ Chris explains. “I mean, the price of corn’s gone up with it, but I think a lot of farmers would say it’s not gone up enough to offset some of it.”

To combat these rising costs, Dave is utilizing strip-till practices. He also relies on early contracts to lock in fuel prices.

“We lucked out and had some contracted to kind of cover our spring needs, so we’ll be OK through the spring,” he says.

(AAA)

Finding Opportunity in Non-GMO Premiums

In addition to conventional corn and soybeans, the Harrells also plant non-GMO corn from Wyffels. While the process requires more management, Dave said the financial upside makes it a win-win situation.

“It’s a little extra work on segregation and storage and clean out,” Chris says. “You just kind of have to have a little checklist and get through it all, but the premiums are nice, especially in a tougher environment like this.”

Four generations of the Harrell family stand for a photo. Dave’s dad still helps out on the farm today at 95 years old.

(Chris Harrell)

Looking Ahead

As the fields in Carthage begin to dry out, a new challenge has emerged: High winds are currently preventing spraying operations. However, the Harrells are rolling with the punches, expecting farmers in their area to potentially move back into full-scale fieldwork by Wednesday.

Chris Harrell works on the planter while waiting for fields to dry out.

(Haley Bickelhaupt)

This barn on the Harrells’ farm was built in the early 1900s. It’s been through storms and been given updates. Today, it serves as a shop for the family.

(Mike Byers)

Historic Gains in the Corn Belt South

According to latest USDA reports, corn planting in Kentucky and Tennessee is moving at its fastest rate since 2012. The numbers tell a story of an efficient window:

Tennessee — Farmers have 64% of the corn crop in the ground, which is a massive 40-point jump ahead of the five-year average and 42 points ahead of last year.
Kentucky — Growers are nearly halfway finished, sitting roughly 30 points ahead of the normal pace.

Soybeans See Record-Setting Pace

The speed isn’t limited to corn. Soybean planting is also rewriting the record books in the Deep South:

Louisiana — Leading the pack at 58% planted, which is 26 points ahead of average and the fastest pace in USDA history.
Mississippi — Currently at 55% planted, running 32 points ahead of the usual pace, another record.
Tennessee — Soybean planting has hit the 50% mark, 41 points ahead of the historical average.

The ‘Dry’ Reality: Farmers Forced to Wait

While the dry weather allowed for uninterrupted field time early on, the lack of moisture is now a major hurdle. David Hula says for growers in the Southeast, the dust has become too much.

“We’ve been dry all season so far, and we actually stopped planting because we’ve been so dry,” Hula says. “Can’t just get the planter in the ground, but it’s the first top, the first planting window. We waited till things warmed up, you know; I’m very diligent and patient about that, and all that corn has come up awesome.”

He says they stopped planting last Thursday, and there’s no measurable rain in the forecast.

“I don’t know when we’re gonna get started back,” Hula says.

Pocket of Extreme Drought

The topsoil moisture maps highlight a stark reality for the region. In a corridor stretching from Virginia to Georgia, topsoil rated “short to very short” in ranges from 83% to a staggering 97%. It has become one of the driest pockets in the country, creating a sharp contrast to the Midwest.

Canadian Farmers Look For A Fresh Start After The Driest Year In Decades

Mon, 20 Apr 2026 18:47:51 GMT

The way Tim Webster tells it, his 2025 cropping season was nearly a disaster. Summer delivered the lowest July–August rainfall his area had seen in 50 years. That lack and abnormally high temperatures pushed corn and soybeans to their limits.

“We had just enough moisture to get to the finish line,” recalls Webster, a sixth-generation farmer based just west of Lindsay, Ontario, Canada. The end result: corn and soybean yields came in at about half of normal.

Webster and fellow farmer Steve Crothers, who farms on the north shore of Lake Ontario about 50 miles east of Toronto, recently sat down with Illinois-based Farm Journal Field Agronomist Ken Ferrie to talk about how they’re adjusting cropping plans for 2026 after last year’s drought.

Drought Reshapes Farmer Expectations

For Webster, last season was a stark reminder of how quickly yield potential can evaporate. Ultimately, Webster’s bottom line took a hit.

“We’re hoping that doesn’t repeat again,” he told Ferrie.

Crothers’ experience, though slightly better, was still defined by drought. Growing corn, soybeans, wheat and edible beans along Lake Ontario, he says it was the driest of his 40-plus years in farming.

“We had a couple half-inch rains, so we kind of ended up with three-quarters of our long-term average yield. So, we fared a little bit better,” Crothers says.

Still, the season left him and Webster concerned about their cropping plans and finances for this year.

Crop Insurance As A Lifeline

Ferrie drew a comparison between Canadian and American safety nets as he listened to Crothers and Webster describe their experiences. In the U.S., Ferrie notes farmers often lean on multiple levels of crop insurance to blunt losses in a bad production year. He asked whether similar options exist for Canadian farmers.

Webster replied that growers there do have a provincial crop insurance program, but participation and coverage levels vary.
“I think we all felt after last year, maybe we should have been insured a little higher. But we were very happy to have what we had to help pay the bills, that’s for sure,” Webster notes.

Crothers says specialty crops, including edible white beans and adzuki beans, come under similar insurance frameworks as corn and soybeans, though they have higher premiums because of their higher value.

Most of the white beans grown in his part of Ontario head to the United Kingdom, while the adzuki beans (also called mung beans) are shipped to Japan, Crothers notes. Those export markets add another layer of risk to already weather-sensitive crops, making insurance an important backstop when weather or markets turn against them.

Fertilizer Sticker Shock Hits Canadian Growers

If drought defined 2025, fertilizer prices loom large over this season for Canadian farmers, much like they do for U.S. farmers.

“For 2026 our biggest thing is hope — hope for typical average rainfalls after last year’s drought,” Crothers says. “And then, of course, the economic challenges with the fertilizer situation are obviously troubling to everybody.”

He tells Ferrie most fertilizer in his part of Ontario is not prepaid “The fellows using 28% are usually prepaid, because it’s been hard to get the last few years. But generally, not near as much fertilizer is prepaid as what, in a perfect world, would have been.” Crothers reports.

That leaves many Canadian farmers more exposed to potential sticker shock as they head into spring planting.

Webster says he pre-bought some of his nitrogen (N) in February and is now leaning hard into a strategy of splitting applications and dialing back on more expensive, slow-release N options where he can.

This year, for his wheat topdress program, fertility costs didn’t pencil out, forcing a change in his plans.

“It’s $32 more [per acre] to go with the time-release product versus straight urea,” Webster notes. “So, I think on our wheat this year we’re going to do a lot of split applications.”

With diesel, fertilizer and other costs trending higher, he says, “anything you can do to save small increments adds up … for the whole operation.”

Cropping Plans: Adjust Or Stay The Course?

Both farmers describe their region as an area where crop rotations remain fairly consistent: corn, soybeans and wheat typically share the mix. Asked whether high input prices and drought fears would drive large acreage shifts this season, Webster says his own operation plans to stay the course with its rotation, helped by a marketing strategy that spreads grain sales out over time to manage risk and meet mortgage payments.

Still, he’s aware some of his neighbors are recalibrating their cropping plans.

“I know some guys are going to go less corn, more beans — just less dollars to put it in,” Webster notes. “Maybe the profits aren’t as high, but there’s less risk involved.”

Ferrie notes that, similar to Ontario, many U.S. growers also appear to be largely holding to their established crop plans, as their major fertilizer and seed commitments were already made before input costs soared.

In a region still feeling the effects of the driest season in decades, both Webster and Crothers are essentially betting on a return to something closer to normal this season — average rains, manageable input costs and no repeat of last year’s extremes.

“If we get good yields, then we can deal with those [costs],” Crothers says. “But another weather year like last year would definitely be a struggle for a lot of people.”

Crothers and Webster spoke with Ferrie during a meeting hosted by the Durham Soil and Crop Association, a grassroots group that works under Ontario’s agricultural umbrella to bring new ideas, funding opportunities and conservation programs to farmers in the region.

You can catch the entire conversation between Ferrie, Crothers and Webster on this week’s Boots In The Field podcast, available below.

60% of U.S. Now Facing Moderate to Exceptional Drought

Mon, 20 Apr 2026 16:54:04 GMT

The latest drought monitor shows three-quarters of the U.S. is now dealing with some level of drought or dryness. Of that, 60% falls in the D1 moderate drought to D4 exceptional drought categories, the highest level since November 2022. To put it in perspective, drought coverage has only exceeded 60% about 30 times in recent history, 25 of those during the widespread drought of 2012 and 2013.

(NOAA/NWS)

The drought and dryness picture is even clearer in the latest root zone moisture map from NASA , which shows the amount of moisture in the top 3' of soil versus a historical average.

The soil in parts of the eastern Corn Belt, the Southeast and into the western Plains is parched and in need of a rain.

The soil in parts of the eastern Corn Belt, the Southeast and into the Western plains is parched and in need of a rain.

(NASA)

Unfortunately, those areas might not see any measurable rain for a couple of weeks, causing the drought area to further expand and deepen.

Drought Monitor Shows Expanding Footprint

“The Drought Monitor has been roughly 80% now for over a month,” says Eric Snodgrass , senior science fellow, Nutrien Ag Solutions. “Remember, that’s using all drought categories, but 80% abnormally dry to exceptionally dry is a big area that’s coming out of a winter and spring with drought concerns going into summer.”

In the Southeast, he says Arkansas is showing a 15" deficit since last October. Recent forecasts for rain have been a disappointment or missed the driest areas altogether, creating a historic drought profile.

“The Southeast is enduring one of the driest springs it has had historically going back to the late 1800s. The drought there is a rough picture,” Snodgrass says. “The high plains are absolutely bone dry. Big dust storms. Nebraska’s really taking a beating. They’re pre-irrigating the crop.”

Winter Wheat Acres Could Be Abandoned

In winter wheat country, 68% of the acres are experiencing drought. Nationally, only 34% of the winter wheat is rated good to excellent. In Texas, 54% of the hard red winter wheat crop is rated poor to very poor, indicating some areas could see acres abandoned.

“I think there’s going to be a lot of lost acres. They’re waiting on rain that now if it comes, it’s almost too late,” Snodgrass says. “I was talking to a grower on the tip of the Red River, and he said he’s already had the insurance adjuster out and was looking at 1 bu. to 19 bu. yields. The crop is gone.”

(USDA)

Any Relief in the Forecast?

Snodgrass says the quick transition over to a super El Nino could provide some drought relief to those areas ... eventually.

“I think we’re going to see rains relieving the drought pressure — not alleviating, but helping in the Plains and in the Southeast in May,” he adds.

Unfortunately, Snodgrass says that relief will not last all summer.

"Super” El Niño Talk Grows: What It Means for U.S. Farmers

Mon, 13 Apr 2026 14:39:36 GMT

Now that La Niña is out of the picture, farmers across Texas and the Southern Plains are anxiously watching both the skies and the Pacific Ocean, hoping a developing El Niño pattern will finally bring relief to ongoing drought conditions.

The updated forecasts show chances are growing that a historic El Niño is brewing this year. According to NOAA’s April 2026 outlook , there is a 25% chance of a “very strong” or super El Niño developing by late 2026 or early 2027, while NOAA is placing a 50% chance for a “strong” El Niño yet this year.

Ag meteorologist Brian Bledsoe of Brian Bledsoe Weather says the talk of a strong El Niño could be good news for the South and Plains, but the area of concern remains in the Pacific Northwest for summer and fall. And he expects El Niño to continue to be a story into 2027.

While hope for rain relief in parts of the South and West centers on El Niño, in the short term, the question remains: will it arrive in time to matter?

Rapid Shift Toward El Niño

Bledsoe says the most important piece of the forecast right now isn’t just that El Niño is forming—it’s how quickly conditions are changing.

“The thing that I’m focused on right now is just simply the rate of change from where we are right now until about June,” he says.

Bledsoe says the most important piece of the forecast right now isn’t just that El Niño is forming—it’s how quickly conditions are changing. “The thing that I’m focused on right now is just simply the rate of change from where we are right now until about June,” he says.

(ECMWF)

Forecast models are showing unusual agreement on that shift.

“If we look at the latest European seasonal model—you’ve seen this all over the place—look at how closely packed those lines are together from now through June,” Bledsoe says. “That is the model exhibiting very good confidence in not only how quickly this is changing, but also how strongly it’s going to pivot in one direction.”

Confidence decreases further out in time, but the near-term signal is strong.

“As you get out there toward October, you see the lines spread out a little bit—that’s the model saying, ‘Oh, we’re uncertain exactly how strong this is going to be,’” he says.

Still, Bledsoe’s outlook is clear.

“I do think this is going to be a strong El Niño. I’m very grounded in that opinion right now.”

What Makes a “Super El Niño”?

As mainstream headlines increasingly use the term “super El Niño,” Blesoe says the definition is straightforward, but the implications can be significant.

“It just simply means that the sea surface temperature anomalies in a particular area of the Pacific get to be greater than two degrees Celsius above average,” he says.

Some forecasts are pushing beyond even that threshold.

“If we look at some of the computer modeling that’s out there, some of these models push that to over two and a half degrees Celsius above average,” he says. “That is a huge change from where we’ve been in dealing with the La Niña phenomenon off and on for about five out of the past six winters.”

That kind of shift doesn’t just stay in the Pacific.

“When you see that big change take place, it really has a big impact as far as global weather is concerned—let alone what goes on here right in the United States,” Bledsoe says.

Uneven Rainfall Pattern Continues for April

Bledsoe says recent rains have been inconsistent, with parts of the Southern Plains missing chances of rain, while areas of Kansas saw nearly 10 inches of rain over two days. But Bledsoe says that trend isn’t over yet.

“I think some folks got shorted out of this last round of rain,” Bledsoe says. “It’s been very easterly biased. And that’s really been the big trend so far, as these storm systems just simply aren’t slow moving enough and consolidated enough to yank that moisture farther back to the West.”

Brian Bledsoe says the ridge of high pressure parked over the east, but the blue in the west is what is sending energy that’s fueling storms benefiting some areas of the Plains.

(Brian Bledsoe, Brian Bledsoe Weather )

Bledsoe says over the next 10 days, that pattern largely holds.

“The thing that I’m focused on is all of that orange in the East, that’s where the ridge of high pressure is. But the blue out West, that’s where the upper-level low pressure is, that’s where the energy is coming from,” he says. “And we’re going to continue to send pieces of energy through the West and the Southwest that will come out into the Plains that will benefit some areas; however, not everybody.”

The result is a narrow window of opportunity for precipitation.

“Texas into the Midwest looks to benefit from this the most,” Bledsoe says. “But if you look at the western High Plains—which desperately need the moisture right now—we’re still not in a great pattern to bring that moisture far enough northwest to benefit you. And that does include northwest Texas, northeast New Mexico.”

Signs of Improvement Into May

While the short-term outlook remains mixed, there are signals that conditions could begin shifting as spring progresses.

“If we look beyond that for that 30-day period—from, say, April 21st through May 21st—we start to see that dry signal diminish considerably in the middle part of the country,” Bledsoe says.

That doesn’t mean drought is gone, but it may begin to loosen its grip.

“We still stay fairly wet from Texas into the Midwest. We are still getting moisture across parts of the northern Plains,” he says. “But it’s really right there—southeast Wyoming, western Nebraska, eastern Colorado, western Kansas, down to the Panhandles and eastern New Mexico—where that dry signal kind of relaxes a little bit.”

For producers in those areas, that “relaxing” of dryness could be an early signal of a broader shift tied to El Niño.

“I think that’s kind of a tell to how the pattern is eventually going to evolve as we push into this El Niño by the time we head into May,” he says.

EURO seasonal model forecast for precipitation from May to June.

(WeatherBELL)

Historical Clues Offer Encouragement

Looking to the past can provide additional insight into what might lie ahead.

“If we look at the historical analogs here—1972, ’82, ’97, 2015, and 2023—those five years fit most closely with where we are right now,” Bledsoe says.

“If you look at what the Plains do traditionally during May—they light up. They get much wetter than where they are right now. And that is certainly some good news,” says Bledsoe.

(NOAA Composite of previous comparison years for precipitation. )

And those years, according to Bledsoe, share an important trait for Plains agriculture.

“If you look at what the Plains do traditionally during May—they light up. They get much wetter than where they are right now. And that is certainly some good news.”

Model guidance is echoing that trend.

“The European seasonal model that just got released this week—that’s the May, June, July forecast—all of that green indicates precipitation anomalies that are wetter than average,” he says. “Even if they’re a little bit overdone, the situation is better than where we are right now from a historical basis.”

Temperature trends also offer some relief.

“When we look at the modeling from a temperature side of the coin here, we don’t see any extreme heat right there east of the mountains,” Bledsoe says. “The main heat signal pivots into the Pacific Northwest.”

Managing Expectations in Drought Conditions

Even with strong signals pointing toward El Niño, Bledsoe says improvement won’t happen overnight.

“Folks’ expectations have to be measured a little bit simply because we do have some dry soil and some drought to overcome,” he says.

The key question isn’t just whether rain comes—but how quickly it can make a difference. Still, once the pattern begins to shift, conditions could improve rapidly.

“Once we get things going, then I think it’s off to the races,” Bledsoe says. “It’s a matter of getting things going.”

A Longer-Term Shift Ahead

Regardless of whether it ultimately reaches “super” status, this El Niño event is expected to stick around.

“Even if it isn’t as strong as what some of the modeling is predicting—even if it’s just strong—that El Niño is likely going to continue into at least the first half of 2027,” Bledsoe says.

For producers who have endured multiple years of La Niña-driven variability, that could mark a meaningful, and potentially welcome change in the overall weather pattern. But for now, the focus remains on the coming weeks and whether the long-awaited shift begins in time to impact the 2026 growing season.

Replant Or Ride It Out? How To Manage The Challenges Of Early-Planted Soybeans

Mon, 06 Apr 2026 16:33:08 GMT

A burst of early soybean planting across parts of the Corn Belt last week has some farmers feeling ahead of schedule, while others are already bracing for replant decisions and dealing with seed challenges.

Farm Journal Field Agronomist Ken Ferrie reports in central Illinois, the convergence of record early planting, heavy spring rains, and uneven seed quality is testing stand establishment. Farmers are now facing tough choices regarding which fields — and which seed lots — will make the cut.

“The past 10 days, a lot of soybeans went in the ground,” Ferrie says. “I believe this may be the most beans ever planted in March for our customer base. We planted some here at the Crop-Tech campus, and they went in very well.”

However, that promising start was quickly met with adverse weather.

Ponding, Cool Soils, And Replant Calls

In parts of Illinois, recent storms dumped 3" to 3.5" of rain in a single night, leading to widespread ponding. While many of those areas drained within 24 hours, the status of those early-planted soybeans remains uncertain.

“Only time will tell, but because soil temperatures remain cool, I expect most of the beans will survive,” Ferrie contends. “If it were saturated and hot, they would die off quickly. But in cool conditions, you’d be surprised how long they can last.”

Ferrie urges growers to stay disciplined: scout fields, evaluate stands, and avoid guessing.

“If you’re scouting ponded areas and find soft, discolored seed, we’ll obviously need to replant. The quicker we get them back in the ground, the better the yield potential. We still have time to replant and maintain an early bean advantage,” he notes.

Crusting: The Hidden Threat

While ponding areas are highly visible, Ferrie warns that soil crusting on conventionally tilled fields may pose a greater threat to late-March soybeans.

“The bigger job is monitoring conventional-till soybeans for crusting. Heavy rain can create a seal that slows or stops emergence,” he explains. While no-till soybeans typically face fewer issues, they are not immune to crusting challenges and still require monitoring.

Ferrie believes many growers underestimate the importance of timely intervention.

“We may need to help these March beans out of the ground. Get the rotary hoe ready,” he advises. “The time to break a crust is when it’s light and the bean is not yet pushing hard against it.”

Waiting too long can turn a simple pass into a stand-loss event. “If the crust hardens and the bean hypocotyls become swollen trying to push through, your chances of success drop significantly. The trick is to go early. If you wait until the beans are clearly in trouble, the rotary hoe won’t be able to save them,” Ferrie says.

Seed Quality Under the Microscope

Weather isn’t the only risk factor this spring; seed quality is also under scrutiny. Seed labs are reporting a wide range of saturated cold test results.

“Samples are coming back all over the board,” Ferrie reports. “We’ve seen saturated cold scores ranging from 95% down to 9%. I suspect the samples falling below 40% may be carryover seed from previous seasons.”

The low cold score numbers are causing ripples in the supply chain, with seed companies pulling questionable lots from the system. This has led to canceled orders or last-minute substitutions for may growers.

“While it’s frustrating to not get the exact genetics you ordered, this is good seed stewardship,” Ferrie says. “Your supplier is doing the right thing by pulling that seed before it becomes a stand disaster in your field.”

Ferrie attributes these quality issues to last season’s production challenges, including heavy disease pressure and late-season drought.

Action Plan For Next Steps

Ferrie outlines several practical steps to help farmers manage the current volatility with seed quality and planting:

Scout Aggressively: Dig for seed in ponded spots for evaluation. If the seed is mushy or discolored, make the replant call early.
Ready the Rotary Hoe: Be prepared to move as soon as a crust begins to form. Ferrie refers to this as “Hoe before you know.”
Monitor Seed Tests: Work closely with your dealer to ensure you are planting high-quality lots.
Be Flexible with Genetics: A sound, high-quality substitute is better than a preferred variety with poor vigor.
Use Rain Delays Wisely: Focus on equipment maintenance and planter calibration so you are ready to roll when conditions improve.

Hear more of Ken Ferrie’s agronomic insights in this week’s Boots In The Field podcast:

Boost Your Bottom Line By Keeping Your Soils In Place

Wed, 01 Apr 2026 20:21:09 GMT

Not every cost on the farm shows up on an invoice. In the view of Eric Beckett, some of the most expensive losses corn and soybean growers face this spring will be invisible — soil carried away by winds moving across their fields.

Beckett, an agronomist with Sunrise FS, says a combination of windier springs, tighter margins and volatile fertilizer prices is forcing a reckoning with long-standing tillage and nutrient application habits. The goal for farmers, he contends, shouldn’t be just agronomic performance this season but risk management, as well.

“Anytime we drag a piece of tillage equipment across the field, we are essentially breaking down that soil aggregate into smaller aggregates,” Beckett says. “That makes soil more susceptible to loss.”

While Beckett isn’t calling for an end to tillage, he is urging farmers in Illinois and beyond to consider the “ramifications coming down the road” before making multiple passes to clean up winter annuals or level tile lines.

A Growing Storm in the Midwest

Beckett’s concerns are grounded in shifting weather patterns. Meteorologists like Victor Gensini at Northern Illinois University have noted a rise in the frequency of convective storms and damaging straight-line winds across the Midwest and Southeast.

Likewise, Nutrien principal atmospheric scientist Eric Snodgrass reports that the Midwest is in a rapid transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions. While this “swift exit” can open planting windows, it also creates erratic atmospheric patterns. High-velocity winds are expected to surge through the Mississippi and Missouri River valleys through early April.

Beckett offers a concerned reminder for farmers tempted to push through windy conditions: “You’ve paid good money for that fertilizer. Why would we go out there when it’s windy and we have no idea where that fertilizer is going to end up, especially if it’s a variable-rate application where we know specific areas of a field need those nutrients?”

Calculating the True Cost of a Pass

Beyond the risk of blowing nutrients, Beckett suggests farmers “crunch the numbers” on the physical cost of every pass. With diesel prices hovering around $5 a gallon currently and tractor leases reaching $300 to $400 per hour, the overhead of extra tillage adds up quickly.

Beyond hard costs, tillage in what are currently dry soils will create additional costs. Beckett describes the ground in his area as “dry as a bone” six to eight feet down.

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, this isn’t just an east-central Illinois issue: 41% of the U.S. corn-producing area and 42% of soybean acreage are currently experiencing some degree of drought. In droughty conditions, every unnecessary tillage pass further dries out the seedbed and can impact topsoil.

Navigating the Label and the Law

Wind doesn’t just steal nutrients; it creates significant legal liability. Most herbicide labels cap applications at 10 mph—a limit that is a legally binding mandate for many products, not a suggestion.

“If you are applying outside those windows and something goes wrong, you can be held liable,” Beckett cautions. To navigate these tighter windows, he suggests focusing on three tactical areas:

Carrier Volume: Increasing from 5 or 10 gallons per acre to 15 or 20 gallons can improve coverage and reduce the risk of fine, drift-prone droplets.
The Dust Factor: Even if winds are within legal limits, fine soil particles can “tie up” product and carry it off-target before it even hits the ground.
Drift-Reduction Tools: While not a license to spray in a gale, modern spray tips and drift-reduction agents are underutilized tools that can significantly improve stewardship.

The New Era Of Documentation

As new requirements tied to the Endangered Species Act take hold, Beckett says the burden of proof for compliance falls squarely on the applicator—whether that is the farmer or a custom applicator.

“Each field has got to have its own documentation,” he says. “Even if it’s just a manila folder... fill out what your mitigation practices are, what your setbacks are. Have that established in a file so the applicator can add to it as the season progresses.”

This level of detail is necessary because the industry is “under the microscope.” In an era where every passerby has a smartphone camera, Beckett says an application in a dusty field can end up on social media in minutes.

Ultimately, Beckett is asking farmers to make a deliberate pause to question habits and routine applications.

“I’m not standing here saying that everybody’s got to put cover crops on and turn every field green,” he says. “But if, collectively, everybody took it a little bit more upon themselves, I think we’d be in a lot better shape.”

Beckett addresses the topic of managing tillage and spray applications in unpredictable weather conditions during a recent episode of the Illinois Field Advisor podcast. You can watch the complete podcast here .

Solving The Sulfur Shortage In High-Yield Soybean Systems

Mon, 16 Mar 2026 16:46:10 GMT

As more farmers push to plant soybeans early, one nutrient is emerging as a valuable difference-maker in the crop: sulfur. The macronutrient is helping deliver some of the largest yield responses Shaun Casteel says he has seen in recent field trials.

“Never would you think you’d see double-digit results, let alone 20-bushel numbers in soybean yield from one treatment,” says Casteel, Purdue University agronomist and Extension soybean specialist.

Yet that’s exactly what he has documented in some Indiana fields where supplemental sulfur was applied, especially in early planted soybean fields.

Why Sulfur Matters More Now

Sulfur is required by all crops, but Casteel says soybean needs are unique compared with grass crops like corn. In soybeans, sulfur is critical as a co-factor for nodulation, the biological process that allows soybean plants to use atmospheric nitrogen (N).

“If we don’t have good sulfur supply, we don’t have good nodulation and fixation,” Casteel explains. “If you’re sold short on nitrogen in soybeans, you’re sold short on yield in a major way.”

Historically, sulfur came “free” from the atmosphere and also from mineralization of organic matter in the soil. Cleaner air regulations have reduced atmospheric deposition, and Casteel says many farmers are starting to see sulfur shortages that weren’t obvious just as recently as a decade ago.

Historically, sulfur was readily available to soybeans via atmospheric deposition (acid rain) from industrial emissions, providing 10 to 30 lbs./acre annually. Due to the 1970 Clean Air Act reducing emissions by over 95%, this “free” source has disappeared, making sulfur supplementation essential to prevent deficiencies, especially on sandy soils, according to University Extension.

(Shaun Casteel)

The classic high-response situations for sulfur — coarse-textured, sandy soils with less than 2% organic matter — still stand out. But Casteel’s work is showing the story for sulfur doesn’t end there.

“I also have fields that are flat and black as a table, with 4% organic matter, where we’re getting sizable yield differences,” he says.

Early Planting Amplifies Sulfur Response

Casteel links some of the most dramatic sulfur responses to a broader trend across the country: earlier soybean planting.

In Indiana, planting patterns have shifted sharply in recent years. Soybeans that once went in the ground two weeks after corn are now being planted within a day or two of corn — and in many cases, are planted first.

Early planting improves yield potential by giving soybeans more time to develop nodes and reproductive branches. But it can also expose a weakness in the natural sulfur supply.

For those farmers chasing higher yielding soybeans, Shaun Casteel believes the use of supplemental sulfur deserves more consideration.

(Shaun Casteel)

Casteel points out that mineralization of sulfur from soil organic matter depends on microbial activity and warm temperatures. When soybeans are planted in late April or early May, Indiana soils – as week as soils in other states – are often too cool for the microbes to release much sulfur.

“In those cooler conditions, that mineralization really isn’t occurring,” he says.

Across multiple studies where planting date was combined with sulfur use, Casteel has seen consistently stronger responses in early-planted soybeans.

“We’ve got years that we’re averaging an 8- to 11-bushel response on prairie soil,” he says. In these trials, sulfur was (e.g., ammonium sulfate, pelletized gypsum, ammonium thiosulfate) applied pre at 20 pounds per acre during a 5-year period.

Beyond Fertility: A Surprising Disease Connection

Sulfur’s role may extend beyond delivering nutrition and helping fix nitrogen in soybeans. Casteel and his research team are seeing signs that sulfur helps reduce the severity of sudden death syndrome (SDS) in soybeans.

In a 2023 soybean trial, as Casteel began rating symptoms of SDS, he noticed a clear difference between sulfur-treated and untreated strips.

“We had good conditions for SDS development — cool, wet conditions during early vegetative growth. We had a marked, substantial reduction in SDS in those areas that had the sulfur treatment,” he recalls.

The unexpected result prompted a deeper look in 2024, when Casteel worked with Plant Pathologist Darcy Telenko on trials that combined planting dates, sulfur rates and SDS inoculation. Early data from those studies pointed in the same direction: soybeans receiving sulfur showed reduced disease expression.

“Beyond the fertility effect, beyond the fixation-boosting capacity that comes with this, there is evidence that we have some disease control or suppression,” Casteel says, cautioning that the results are still based on only a few years of data.

“If you really think about it, the first fungicides on the market 100 years ago were sulfur-based, so it’s not too surprising that we might be seeing something here,” he adds.

Big Upsides Where Sulfur Use Fills The Gap

Casteel is careful to note that the sulfur response in soybeans is often site-specific. Classic sandy soils and low-organic-matter fields are prime candidates for the nutrient. But his work suggests that even high-organic-matter fields can show strong gains when sulfur is limiting.

(Shaun Casteel)

That variability doesn’t dampen his enthusiasm. Instead, he sees sulfur as a high-upside tool for intensive soybean managers who already have the basics — variety selection, disease packages, and timely planting — under control.

“It’s fun to have treatments out there that are providing hope and promise,” Casteel says. “We’re seeing numbers with sulfur that really move the needle.”

With earlier planting becoming the norm and biological sulfur supply under pressure, Casteel expects interest in using Sulfur to keep growing. For those growers chasing 100-bushel soybeans, especially, he believes sulfur deserves more consideration as they develop fertility plans.

“If you have not explored sulfur on your soybean crops, I suggest applying strips of S fertilizer that is soluble (e.g., ammonium sulfate, pelletized gypsum, ammonium thiosulfate) between 15- to 25-pounds of S per acre to determine if you have fields or production practices that are responsive to boosting nodulation and N fixation,” he recommends. “Applications can be applied mid-March through planting with higher rates the earlier you apply the S fertilizer.”

More information on Casteel’s research with sulfur in soybeans is available here .

Is A Nitrogen Inhibitor Worth The Cost?

Wed, 11 Mar 2026 20:34:50 GMT

Nitrogen inhibitors, often referred to as stabilizers, are increasingly used by farmers looking to protect their fertilizer investments and maintain yields amid increasingly erratic weather.

There are two primary types of nitrogen inhibitors in the marketplace today: urease inhibitors and nitrification inhibitors.

Nitrification inhibitors such as nitrapyrin, DCD, and pronitridine have been developed to delay the conversion of nitrogen fertilizers into nitrate, according to Fabian Fernandez, University of Minnesota Extension nutrient management specialist.

“The reason we want to delay transformation to nitrate is that nitrate can leach below the root zone or be denitrified if there is excessive precipitation,” Fernandez reports.

University of Minnesota researchers have evaluated nitrogen inhibitors as well as numerous enhanced efficiency fertilizer products.

(Fabian Fernandez)

Urease inhibitors such as NBPT and NPPT delay the conversion of urea into ammonia. “We want to prevent nitrogen transformation to ammonia as this too will end up in the environment and not available to the crop. In this case, though, the loss happens as ammonia goes off as a gas to the atmosphere,” he says.

As the 2026 season gets underway, here are two key reasons to consider using a nitrogen inhibitor:

1. Maximize Nitrogen Efficiency

Inhibitors delay the conversion of ammonium-N to nitrate-N, which reduces nitrogen loss via leaching and denitrification, increasing N availability for crops and boosting yields by 5% to 12%, according to Bob Nielsen, Purdue University agronomist and professor emeritus.

Furthermore, because inhibitors slow down the nitrogen conversion process the nutrients stay in the root zone and available to crops longer – up to eight weeks depending on the product used, according to Corteva Agriscience.

2. Keep Nitrogen In The Field

Early in the season, heavy rains and warming soil temperatures can contribute to significant nitrogen loss. With spring applications, research shows soil can lose more than 20% of its total nitrogen after just one or two rain events, according to Heather Vosburgh, nitrogen stabilizer strategic account manager, Corteva Agriscience.

The concern for potential N runoff is why Tyler Wiltfang , a fourth-generation farmer, near Oregon, Ill., says he uses an inhibitor in early spring, prior to planting corn.

“Some of our fields are very close to a creek, and we don’t want that [nitrogen] going other places,” says Wiltfang, who grows corn and soybeans on the same land his great grandfather bought in 1929.

“It’s important to be thinking about the environmental impact, because we have to take care of the ground to grow our crop,” Wiltfang adds. “If the soil isn’t up to par, and we’re not doing our part, we’re not going to have a good crop using a nitrogen stabilizer, such as Instinct.”

With meteorologists predicting an active weather pattern across the Eastern Corn Belt this spring delivering excess moisture that could delay early planting, farmers in those areas might want to be prepared to use an inhibitor.

When To Pass On Using An Inhibitor?

There’s at least one scenario when you don’t need to use a urease inhibitor — when you make a broadcast application of urea that is immediately incorporated by tillage at least 2” in the soil, Fernandez reports in this online video and article.

“If you were concerned about nitrogen loss from a pre-plant application, I would not use urea-ammonium nitrate (UAN) and include a nitrification inhibitor to protect the investment,” he says. “While the nitrification inhibitor will provide protection, 25% of the application is already nitrate in this fertilizer source and the inhibitor will do nothing to protect nitrate from leaching or denitrification loss. It would be a much better idea to use the inhibitor with a urea application.”

On the other hand, Fernandez says using a urease inhibitor when urea is surface-applied in a high crop-residue field, or a nitrification inhibitor or polymer-coated urea in fields or portions of fields that tend to be wet, is most likely to increase the chance that you see a benefit from your investment.

Agronomic specialists like Fernandez emphasize that nitrogen stabilizers are not stand-alone solutions. They are most effective when integrated into a broader nitrogen management strategy that includes realistic yield goals, soil testing, attention to soil type and drainage, and thoughtful decisions on application rate and timing.

Smart Strategies for Planting in Wet or Dry Conditions

Tue, 10 Mar 2026 20:47:43 GMT

There are few mistakes that you can’t overcome, given enough time. But problems at planting time set the stage for an entire season’s worth of trouble.

Many, if not most, planting problems result from failing to adjust practices and equipment to fit soil and weather conditions, says Farm Journal Field Agronomist Ken Ferrie. Since you can’t know what the weather will do, you have to plan for various scenarios.

What If It’s Dry?

Ferrie has one rule: Don’t plant corn into dry soil, hoping to “rain it up.”

“Putting corn in dry soil, and not having it germinate in timely fashion, can be a disaster for your stand,” he says. “If you do spring tillage too far ahead of planting, that lets the soil dry out. Don’t let your soil finisher get too far ahead of the planter in a hot, dry spring.”

In a dry situation with conventional tillage, use row cleaners to push away clods in front of the planting units. “If you crush clods with your depth wheels, you’ll put dry soil around the seed,” Ferrie says. “Use your row cleaners as a clod roller.”

In either no-till or conventional tillage, use row cleaners to move residue out of the way. “Normally, a little residue is no big deal,” Ferrie says. “But if it’s dry, residue tucked into the seedbed wicks moisture out of the furrow, away from the seed.”

Running out of planting moisture in no-till is rare, but it can happen in sandy soil or if you fail to kill a cover crop on time, Ferrie notes. “It can happen when strip-tilling in coarse soils, if you are not timely with your planter,” he says. “In strip-till, you may have to go off the strip and no-till the seed beside the strip.

In tough conditions, with no rain in the forecast and you know it will be even drier in 10 more days, use your row cleaners to move away the dry soil. Hopefully, this will get you closer to some moisture where you can place the seed, Ferrie advises.

This carries risk, though. “If you applied a pre-emergence herbicide, there will be no herbicide left in the row,” Ferrie says. “Have a plan in place to control weeds in the row.”

If you “plow down to moisture” in strip-till or conventional tillage, you will actually be planting in a valley. “If the weatherman turns out to be wrong and you get a toad strangling rain before the corn comes up, the corn will get buried and you’ll have to replant,” Ferrie says. “But at least you’ll have moisture to replant in.”

What If It’s Wet?

Unless you own a crystal ball, you need a plan for wet weather, too. “Don’t mud a crop into cold, wet soil unless you’re running up against the crop insurance date because of prolonged cool, damp weather,” Ferrie says.

Most often, you’ll have soil that, while fit to plant, is on the wet side. “In marginally wet conditions, the biggest problems I see are carrying too much down pressure on row units and being too aggressive with row cleaners,” Ferrie says. “That makes it difficult to close the slot. If you back off down pressure and let up on the row cleaners, you’ll often find that a field that seemed too wet to plant will plant nicely.”

Worries about maintaining seed depth are what make farmers too aggressive with down pressure. “That gets people in trouble in marginally wet conditions,” Ferrie says. “With today’s monitoring equipment, you can back off down pressure and know whether you’re maintaining depth control.”

A row unit functions sort of like a Jet Ski, Ferrie says. The faster you pull the planter, the more it wants to come out of the ground, so it takes more down pressure to maintain proper depth.

“In these marginal conditions, in order to stay on top of dry soil and plant through it without moving it, you may have to slow down the planter to maintain depth control,” Ferrie adds. “Slowing down from 5 mph to 4 mph is still faster than waiting for the field to dry out, so you can plant with more down pressure and a higher speed.”

In marginal conditions, stop the planter and adjust row cleaners, closing wheels and down pressure from field to field, Ferrie says.
One other time you might need to plant in wet soil is when you have wet spots in an otherwise dry field.

“It’s a time-sensitive issue,” Ferrie says. “If you’re in danger of missing the optimum planting period, and 80% of the field is ready but 20% is still wet, go ahead and plant. You’ll have yield loss in the areas that aren’t ready, but not as much as if you miss the optimum planting window on the 80%.”

If spots in a field are wet every year, consider tiling them. “If you improve timeliness over the entire field, you pick up yield everywhere, not just in the wet spots,” Ferrie says.

If you can’t improve drainage in those fields, set your planter for wet conditions. “Use spoked closing wheels to close the furrow,” Ferrie says. “Put scrapers on your planter’s depth wheels. Use a variable down-pressure system, so you can take the pressure off when planting through wet areas.

“Be conscious of planter weight in those fields. If you have a center-fill planter with starter fertilizer tanks, fill the hopper and tanks only partway. Keep the planter as light as possible.”

Give Extra Attention To Fertilizer Management

“In a dry year, be careful about applying starter in the furrow, even if you’re using a low-salt product,” Ferrie says. “If you’re worried about having enough moisture to germinate the corn, don’t put any salt in the furrow.”

If you apply anhydrous ammonia in the spring, allow at least two weeks between application and planting, and hope for a 2" rain. “In a dry spring, I’ve seen ammonia applied in February burn corn planted in April,” Ferrie says. “If you have auto-steer, you can use it to apply the ammonia and then plant between the ammonia strips.”

Here are a couple of other things to keep in mind if spring turns out dry: “Soil-applied herbicides need moisture to disperse in the soil and activate the active ingredients,” Ferrie says. “Plan to scout more and apply rescue or cleanup treatments, if needed.”

In northern areas where primary tillage is done in the spring, do secondary tillage within hours after chiseling. “There will be no freezing and thawing to break up chunks and prevent them from turning into clods,” Ferrie says. “If they turn into clods, you’ll have to deal with them all season long.”

Whatever the weather brings, patience at planting is a virtue. “Don’t feel that you have to plant just because your neighbor is,” Ferrie says. “With today’s genetics, we have a wider planting window. Diversity in planting dates, as long as you don’t miss the optimum range, reduces pollination risk.”

Is Planting Always a Struggle?

If weather is cool and wet, you might have to fight to get corn planted during the optimum window—that’s normal. But if you struggle to finish on time every season, or if you find yourself starting earlier to finish on time, you might need to re-evaluate your equipment and manpower, says Farm Journal Field Agronomist Ken Ferrie. “Early planting is fine if conditions are right, but if you plant in wet soil in order to finish on time, you risk problems with stand establishment,” he says.

Consider the following pinch points to determine if your planting pipeline needs an update:

Timing. How much time do you have to get planting done? Your landgrant university or seed company can tell you the optimum planting window for your locality because it varies by area.

Ferrie suggests his Midwestern clients be able to plant their corn crop in five days, when conditions are right. “Of course, those five days may not come in one stretch. It may take a month to get five days of good planting conditions, depending on the weather,” he says.

Machine power. Is your planter sized for your acreage? “As farmers pick up acres, they may add a grain cart or a second combine but forget to upsize their planter,” Ferrie says. “Rather than a bigger planter, you may want a second one, so you can plant in two areas at once.”

Manpower. Consider hiring a custom operator to spray while your skilled employee plants. “You can hire people to do a lot of jobs,” Ferrie says. “But it’s difficult to hire someone to plant your crop on a timely basis.”

Early Planting Unlikely for Much of Eastern Corn Belt as Wet Pattern Dominates Spring Outlook

Mon, 09 Mar 2026 19:37:23 GMT

While some farmers may be enjoying the recent stretch of unusually warm temperatures, the broader spring weather pattern suggests early planting will likely be difficult across much of the eastern half of the country.

Matt Griffin, meteorologist with BAM Weather, says the start of March brings temperatures well above seasonal averages in many areas, particularly across the southeastern U.S. But those warmer temperatures are coming alongside an extremely active weather pattern that continues to deliver frequent rainfall.

The forecast points to an active moisture track from the eastern half of the country through March 12th.

(Matt Griffin, BAM Weather )

“Over the next week or so, it’s just going to be very warm,” Griffin says. “It’s going to continue to be very warm and very active.”

Griffin says the warmth is widespread across the eastern half of the country. In some areas of the eastern Ag Belt, temperatures are running significantly above normal for early March.

“We’re starting off March on a very warm note,” he says. “In fact, some of those colors into the eastern Ag Belt, the eastern U.S., in some spots 20 degrees above normal.”

However, the bigger concern for farmers isn’t the temperature. It’s the amount of precipitation expected to accompany the pattern.

Griffin says forecasts show a wide swath of rainfall stretching from Texas into the Ohio Valley, with some areas expected to see multiple inches of rain in a short period of time.

“With this pattern coming, a lot of rain,” he says. “In fact, you can see this corridor of rain from near Dallas stretching into the Ohio Valley.”

Flooding Concerns Already Building

Some parts of the eastern Midwest could see particularly heavy totals.

“The folks in the Eastern Ag Belt, lots of rain,” Griffin says. “That area of pink there suggests amounts of three-plus inches of rain.”

In parts of the region, the ground is already saturated from recent systems. Griffin says the combination of previous rainfall and additional storms raises concerns about flooding. He adds that the areas receiving the heaviest precipitation could continue to deal with high water issues.

“I think anywhere you see the purples and the pink colors, and especially the blue areas, we’re going to have a continuation of flooding issues as well,” Griffin says.

Mid-March Cold Front Brings Another Shift

Even though the opening stretch of March is unseasonably warm, Griffin says that warmth likely won’t last the entire month.

A colder air mass is expected to push through the country around the middle of March.

The forecast points to an extremely mild pattern for the western half of the U.S. in March.

(Matt Griffin, BAM Weather)

“The warmer temperatures I don’t think are here to stay necessarily,” Griffin says. “If we look at the following week’s pattern, this is around March 13th to the 19th, we do see a cold front that passes through.”

That cold front will help bring temperatures closer to normal across portions of the eastern Corn Belt, he says.

“It will help, especially for some of you folks in the Eastern Ag Belt, really knock down those temperatures a little bit,” Griffin says.

In addition to cooler temperatures, the system could bring another round of precipitation and even some late-season winter weather for northern areas.

“This would be a window for a sneaky wintery weather threat,” he says. “The Northern Plains into the Great Lakes, through Michigan and into the interior Northeast—not impossible.”

Active Storm Track Through March

Even beyond that system, Griffin says the broader weather pattern remains active through the remainder of March, especially in the eastern half of the country.

“Once again, I’m going to sound a little bit like a broken record,” Griffin says. “The Eastern Ag Belt and the Northeast, where the rain I think can be above normal in those spots.”

The active storm track could also bring severe weather risks at times as the region transitions deeper into spring.

Above normal to much above normal precipitation is in the forecast for the eastern part of the U.S., along with the northern tier of the country, as we finish March.

(Matt Griffin, BAM Weather)

“At times, not only this week but last week as well, there is some potential severe weather associated with this as we head into the first half of March,” he says.

Looking further into the month, Griffin says the divide between wetter eastern areas and drier western regions becomes more pronounced.

“Later into March, I do think we continue to see this active weather pattern into the Eastern Ag Belt in particular,” he says.

Forecast maps show significantly above-normal precipitation stretching from Ohio southward through Kentucky and Tennessee.

“Our latest forecast shows much above normal rains into Ohio, down into Kentucky, into Tennessee,” Griffin says.

Because of the ongoing storm activity, he says it would not be surprising to see additional severe weather events during the period.

“That active weather pattern remains,” he says. “Wouldn’t be shocked to see some bouts of severe weather.”

Meanwhile, conditions further west are trending in the opposite direction.

“It’s going to be a bit of an Ag Belt divided,” Griffin says. “Wet east, dry to the west.”

Temperatures are also expected to fluctuate frequently as the pattern evolves.

“We’re going to see ups and downs in our temperatures,” Griffin says. “I do think it’ll be a little bit of a roller coaster ride.”

He points to another cooler stretch likely developing around the third week of March.

“We get around March 18th through the 22nd, it’s probably going to be a little colder,” he says.

El Niño Influence Builds Into Spring

As the calendar turns to April, Griffin says longer-range indicators show an emerging El Niño pattern beginning to influence weather across the United States.

“What I think starts to occur is we start to feel a little more influence of our emerging El Niño,” Griffin says.

April’s weather pattern is shaping up to be divided, with below normal precipitation for parts of the West, and above normal precip in the South, along the Atlantic Coast and in the Northeast.

(Matt Griffin, BAM Weather)

That shift could move the corridor of heavier rainfall slightly farther south and east.

“What that’s going to do is shift the above-normal rains a little bit further to the south and to the east,” he says.

Areas such as northeastern Texas and the Tennessee and Kentucky River valleys may see an increased focus for precipitation.

“Where I think the focus of the rain will be is areas into say northeastern Texas into the Tennessee, Kentucky River valleys and some of those areas as well,” Griffin says.

Even so, parts of the central Corn Belt could still see periodic rain events.

“If you’re in areas eastern Iowa to Ohio, I still think there’s some rainfall opportunities there,” he says.

Watching Frost and Moisture Into May

Temperature patterns may also turn somewhat cooler in parts of the Plains during April.

“I do think this will be a little bit of a colder pattern, especially for some of you folks in the Northwestern Plains into the Northern Plains,” Griffin says.

He also says early April could bring the possibility of additional late-season winter weather in some regions.

“We may have some early April sneaky winter events as well,” he says.

May looks to turn dry in the heart of the U.S., with below normal temperatures in the east and heat in the West.

(Matt Griffin, BAM Weather)

By May, the broader weather pattern may shift again as the El Niño signal strengthens.

“I think the colder air that we talked about in April does start to bleed to the east,” Griffin says.

At that point, rainfall may concentrate more heavily across the southern tier of the country.

“We continue to see this transition more into this El Niño,” he says. “The southern jet stream is just going to be a little bit more energetic.”

That setup could bring above-normal rainfall to the desert Southwest, Gulf Coast and southeastern U.S.

“I think that’s where the rain, above normal rains, are going to be more focused,” Griffin says.

Meanwhile, parts of the Plains may trend drier as spring progresses.

“You can see much below normal at this point into areas into the Plains—the Northern Plains, the Central Plains,” he says.

Despite those shifts, Griffin says the temperature outlook for May does not currently suggest extreme heat.

“At this point we’re not talking about any extreme temperatures one way or the other,” he says.

He notes the dryness across parts of the western Ag Belt could become a concern if it persists.

“All of the outlooks I mentioned out further to the west and to the Western Ag Belt were relatively dry,” Griffin says.

Still, he says there is at least some positive news in the seasonal outlook.

“I guess if there’s one silver lining… I don’t think we’re talking necessarily about extreme heat at this time,” he says.

One additional factor farmers will be watching closely is the possibility of a late spring frost in northern areas.

“I do think we need to watch May as far as late frost concerns,” Griffin says.

Regions such as the Northern Plains, Michigan and the Northeast may face the greatest risk.

“Those would be areas at risk for a late frost,” he says.

However, Griffin says the broader Corn Belt may largely avoid that issue this year.

“For much of the Ag Belt, to be honest, I just think this year we largely avoid that risk,” he says.

Bottom Line for Planting

For many growers, though, the biggest immediate concern is the wet start to the planting season.

With repeated storms expected across the eastern Corn Belt, Griffin says field conditions will likely remain too wet to support widespread early planting.

“Especially east of Iowa, it’s just not going to happen in my opinion,” Griffin says.

He says the persistent rainfall throughout March and April makes early fieldwork unlikely in many areas.

“It’s just too wet for March, too much rain in April,” Griffin says. “I just don’t think it’s going to happen.”

As La Niña Looks to Make One of Its Quickest Exits on Record, Strong El Niño Signals Are Now Brewing

Tue, 03 Mar 2026 01:39:06 GMT

A rapid shift in the Pacific Ocean could soon reshape weather patterns across U.S. farm country, and according to Eric Snodgrass, it’s unfolding faster than anything he’s witnessed in his career.

Speaking to U.S. Farm Report during Commodity Classic, the senior science fellow for Nutrien Ag Solutions said the current La Niña pattern is collapsing at remarkable speed.

“It’s happening fast, actually, very rapid,” Snodgrass says. “In fact, in my career, I don’t think I’ve ever seen a La Niña die as fast as this one.”

This year’s El Niño will very likely become a strong event.

Yet another series of strong westerly wind bursts over the central Pacific will trigger a new downwelling Kelvin wave that further suppresses the thermocline in the East Pacific a few months now. pic.twitter.com/mvfA6kcNHx
— Eric Webb (@webberweather) March 2, 2026

That quick exit is raising a much bigger question: How quickly does El Niño take hold, and how strong does it become? It’s the answers to those questions that could shape the moisture picture for crops and pasture this spring and summer.

But it’s something all meteorologists are watching as it’s likely this year’s El Niño coudl be a strong event.

Plains Dryness Still Front and Center

Current soil moisture across the U.S. shows areas of the Midwest and South are in desperate need of moisture.

(Eric Snodgrass )

Even as ocean temperatures shift, drought concerns remain very real across portions of the Plains.

“I’m very concerned about snowpacking the Rockies,” Snodgrass says. “I’m concerned about the snowpack on the river system that feeds into the Platte River system through Nebraska, which is very, very dry. And the whole Mississippi is still low right now.”

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows shows much every state except California, North Dakota and parts of the Ohio Valley region are seeing some level of drought entering into March.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

Portions of the U.S. have seen some moisture relief this winter, while other parts of the country are in desperate need of moisture heading into spring.

“So we’ve solved some major issues that need to be overcome,” he says. “But spring can do that. The question’s going to be, does it happen in time?”

Timing, he emphasizes, is everything. He points to last year as an example of how quickly conditions can turn around.

“Don’t forget, last year when we were at Commodity Classic, there were dust storms coming out of Texas. There was a dust storm through parts of Kansas,” Snodgrass says. “We were talking the same story, and by May, it was all erased. So I have to learn to be patient in spring. Just remember that spring can undo all of winter’s problems in a heartbeat, and that’s where we sit right now.”

Still, patience doesn’t mean ignoring the warning signs. He cautions to keep a close eye on drought pockets across the Plains.

If you look at the precipitation since November, it shows the locations that have seen the driest winter months.

(IEM)

Models Going “After Very Aggressive Rainfall”

As La Niña fades, ocean waters across the tropical Pacific are warming. That warming is already influencing long-range model projections.

“The issue here is how quickly do we get El Niño-like behavior, and what you’re going to notice is because all of the weather forecast models make the ocean temperatures very warm on both sides of North America, they’re all going after very aggressive rainfall,” says Snodgrass.

He described current precipitation outlooks as above normal precipitation for much of the country this summer.

“If you looked at a map right now of the forecast precip for the summer, it’s just like wet for everybody except for Arizona,” he says.

But Snodgrass warned that such widespread wet signals deserve scrutiny.

“That’s always concerning because anytime I see the model swing for the fences, I’m like, ‘OK, I’ve seen it lose before.’ I want to make sure that I really see how things shape up,” he says.

Forecasted precip in the middle of March shows signs if change for the Delta.

(Eric Snodgrass )

He does believe some areas are likely to see meaningful relief.

“I think they’re going to see quite a bit of rain,” he says, referring to areas from the Plains into the Delta and Mid-South. “I think we’re going to get some severe weather out of it.”

“I think we’re going to be wiping out drought throughout the Delta parts of the Southeast and maybe as far back as southern Texas,” he adds. “So it may be raining here very, very soon, with some nasty storms, too.”

The 14-day precip outlook shows areas from Texas through the East could see some heavy moisture.

(Eric Snodgrass)

AccuWeather: El Niño is Brewing

Forecasters at AccuWeather are also seeing signals that El Niño is forming.

“The trends support El Niño developing late this spring to early this summer,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Chat Merrill says in a recent outlook.

However, forecasters caution that this time of year presents forecasting challenges known as the “spring predictability barrier,” when long-range models are often less reliable.

“Typically, the stronger the signal, the more confidence on impacts for a typical El Niño season,” says AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls. “There are early signs in the Pacific Ocean that El Niño is starting to develop, but this change is slow, and there are still several months for it to fully develop.”

That slower, steady development described by AccuWeather stands alongside Snodgrass’ observation that La Niña itself is collapsing unusually fast, creating a transition period that farmers will need to monitor closely.

Bam Weather: Similar to 2023, Moderate by Summer

Bret Walts, meteorologist with BAM Weather , agrees this is one of the quicker La Niña exits in recent decades, though he sees parallels to a more recent season.

“It is one of the faster ones in the past 20-plus years, but very similar to 2023, a more recent year,” Walts says. “I see a lot of similarities to that year ahead.”

Walts expects El Niño conditions to be firmly in place by late May or early summer.

“We will be in El Niño by late May / early summer and nearing moderate territory by the end of summer,” he said. “I do think we can make a run at strong territory, but it would be more into fall.”

Even if the event peaks at moderate strength during the growing season, Walts says it would still influence temperature and moisture trends.

“A moderate El Niño would aid in less substantial heat as we head into summer,” he explains. “These years tend to actually run a bit cooler — so less GDUs — especially for the eastern belt.”

However, cooler doesn’t necessarily mean wetter everywhere.

“They can suppress moisture in the Upper Midwest, especially early in the season, and pose drier risks,” Walts says. “But they also favor timely rains as we head through mid- to late summer.”

Overall, he sees more upside than downside for crop production.

“While a few localized areas could get drier, it’s a setup that is favorable for many in terms of growing conditions,” Walts says.

Could This Be a Strong El Niño Like 2015?

Snodgrass says ocean temperature projections suggest the event could strengthen significantly.

“I think right now we’re looking at ocean temperatures that could be more than a degree and a half above average, and if you look historically, the last time we saw this would have been 2015, and that was a big one,” says Snodgrass.

The last event of that magnitude was the powerful El Niño, which significantly altered global weather patterns.
But Snodgrass cautioned against assuming a repeat.

“2023 was the most recent El Niño event, but the timing was way different,” he says. “So I don’t know that we can draw a direct correlation. I don’t know if there’s a good precedent for like, ‘Oh, go look at this year.’ And so as a result, we’re all going to be just watching it carefully to see how it transitions.”

What Farmers Should Watch

For producers, the message is to stay vigilant, according to Snodgrass. He says to

Watch the drought pockets in the Plains.
Watch the snowpack and river systems.
Watch how quickly El Niño-like behavior begins influencing storm tracks.

Because if Snodgrass is right, and this is indeed the fastest La Niña exit of his career, then 2026 may hinge on how quickly the Pacific Ocean rewrites the script for moisture this spring and summer.

When Weird Corn Ears Wreck the Bottom Line

Mon, 02 Mar 2026 15:20:06 GMT

Abnormal corn ears may look like a cosmetic problem, but depending on the severity, they can deliver a significant hit to yield, reports Osler Ortez, Ohio State University corn specialist.

“If a field is managed for 200-bushel corn but only delivers 100 bushels because abnormal ears dominate, then every pound of nitrogen, every inch of irrigation and every pass you make across that field becomes much harder to justify,” he says.

Yield losses from abnormal corn ears can range from 35% to 91% in affected plants, with typical field-wide impacts often trailing lower, Ortez reports.

For reference, an “average” corn ear generally produces 16 kernel rows with about 800 kernels per ear, according to the Iowa State Extension.

Irregularities such as zipper ears (shown below), earless plants or multiple ears, reduce grain yield through poor kernel set, abortion or reduced kernel weight.

A common abnormality called zipper ear is caused by kernel abortion or failed pollination. The issue is often triggered by severe environmental stress during early grain fill or pollination from factors including drought, high heat or nutrient deficiency.

(R. L. Nielsen, professor emeritus and Purdue University Corn Specialist, retired)

Ortez emphasizes no single factor explains abnormal ear development. It’s nearly always the result of an interaction between three factors that corn researchers refer to as GEM:
G — Genetics (hybrid)

E — Environment (weather, stress)

M — Management (practices)

He adds that understanding when the stress is happening, the timing of it, is also important. For instance, early-season stress can limit ear initiation and potential ear number, while midseason issues impact pollination and kernel set. Late-season stress reduces kernel fill and overall weight.

Strategic Management Levers

While the weather can’t be controlled, Ortez says understanding the GEM interaction gives corn growers more leverage than they realize.

He lists three management decisions that can help growers mitigate the risk of abnormal ear development:

1. Evaluate the genetics: Treating hybrid selection as a defensive tool against ear problems — right alongside disease tolerance and standability — is one of the clearest ways to lower risk.

2. Pick a recommended seeding rate: In Nebraska field trials, Ortez observed abnormal ears increased at both ends of the seeding rate spectrum.

“Chasing a few extra bushels with aggressive populations, especially on drought-prone or otherwise stressed acres, often backfired when stress hit at the wrong time,” he notes. Conversely, pulling populations too low also created conditions where ear development went off track.

3. Consider the planting date: Researchers found planting hybrids outside the optimal window — either very early into cold, wet conditions or very late into heat and moisture stress — made it more likely sensitive growth stages would line up with damaging stress. Matching planting date to local recommendations and the strengths of a given hybrid proved to be an important way to reduce those risky overlaps.

Ultimately, by tuning into GEM, farmers can better safeguard their investments. As Ortez points out, the more sides of that triangle a farmer can stabilize or improve, the less likely a season’s worth of hard work and inputs will be undone by a field of problem ears.

Hear Ortez share more of his research on abnormal ear development in a recent podcast sponsored by the Crop Protection Network.

Smart Strategies for Topdressing Dry Fertilizer

Mon, 23 Feb 2026 20:12:17 GMT

If you’re topdressing corn acres this spring with dry fertilizer, keep in mind how that product is managed in a high-residue system will determine whether the fertilizer feeds your crop or disappears into thin air.

Ken Ferrie notes that farmers in his area, central Illinois, commonly use ammonium sulfate, urea and potash for topdressing. He says every hour untreated urea sits on the field surface is a chance for the nitrogen (N) in the fertilizer to gas off and disappear.

“The ammonium sulfate is stable, but the urea has potential to get away when it breaks down,” explains Ferrie, Farm Journal Field Agronomist.

That “getting away” is nitrogen loss caused through volatilization—when N escapes as ammonia gas instead of being captured in the soil as ammonium. In a corn-on-corn rotation, with a lot of stalks and leaves on the field surface for instance, the risk for volatilization is even higher.

Residue Can Supercharge Urease

The problem starts with a naturally occurring soil enzyme called urease. It’s what kicks off the breakdown of urea into ammonia and then ammonium. In a corn-on-corn field with lots of residue, the urease is supercharged.

“The thing about urease enzyme here in the surface with all this residue, it is 10 times higher than it would be in the soil,” he says.
The enzyme goes to work quickly, converting urea to ammonia at the soil–air interface, and that ammonia can simply drift off into the atmosphere. The more time it spends on the surface, the higher the odds of loss.

That’s why timing and management of dry fertilizer applications are critical.

“We sometimes say you need to keep the pin in the grenade – keep the urease enzyme at bay until we can get it worked in or rained in,” Ferrie says.

Evaluate Your Risk Potential

If tillage is in the plan, your solution to prevent volatilization is simple. Apply the fertilizer, then work it into the soil as soon as field conditions allow. When urea is incorporated, even lightly, any ammonia that forms is far more likely to be captured in the soil and converted to ammonium, where the crop can use it.

“There’s probably not a lot of worry in that scenario,” he says. “You’re going to incorporate this urea, and when it gasses, it’ll be in the soil, it’ll be captured.”

But not every system or scenario involves immediate tillage. In many no-till or strip-till fields, or when soil conditions are too wet for equipment, growers end up spreading fertilizer and then waiting on the weather to do the incorporation work. In those situations,
Ferrie warns, the risk of volatilization can increase quickly.

“If it’s going to lay out here and depend on rain [for incorporation], depending on how long that’s going to be, we’re going to need a urease inhibitor to give us time to get it rained in,” he says.

Urease inhibitors can temporarily slow or stop enzyme activity, giving farmers a bigger window before significant nitrogen loss occurs. For fields with a lot of residue, that extra time can make a big difference—especially when the forecast is uncertain.

Alongside conventional urea plus a urease inhibitor, Ferrie points to another option – using ESN, a polymer-coated, encapsulated urea.

“The ESN basically keeps the urea protected,” he says. “In that situation, if we lay it on the surface, you’re going to have about 60 days of protection. If you incorporate it, in our studies, [it] would show about 30 days of protection.”

ESN uses a physical coating to regulate how quickly water gets in and dissolves the urea. For growers who want extended protection or are looking to match nitrogen release more closely with crop uptake, that can be a useful tool. Still, Ferrie’s quick to point out that this isn’t a one-size-fits-all solution.

“It’s quite a bit more expensive,” he notes, underscoring the need to weigh costs against potential risks. For some high-yield, intensively managed corn-on-corn systems, the extra investment might pencil out. For others, a urease inhibitor on regular urea, combined with smart timing and placement, might be the more economical choice.

In addition, farmers need to think through when and how the urea in a fertilizer blend will get treated, Ferrie says If a urease inhibitor is added after everything is mixed together, you end up paying to “treat” nutrients that don’t actually need it.

“Treat the urea before you add the ammonium sulfate and the potash, or you’re going to end up treating all of the product, otherwise,” he cautions.

Know The Rules For Dicamba Use In Your State

Wed, 18 Feb 2026 19:51:23 GMT

The EPA has finalized the dicamba label for the next two growing seasons, bringing much-needed clarity to U.S. farmers. But while over-the-top (OTT) use is officially back, it arrives with the most restrictive federal requirements farmers have seen to date for products like Engenia , Tavium , and Bayer’s new XtendiMax replacement, Stryax .

In some cases, states are adopting stronger regulations for dicamba use, especially with regard to temperature and calendar cutoffs:

Temperature Cutoff: The federal label mandates a 95°F forecast high as a hard cutoff. If the National Weather Service forecasts a high above 95°F, you cannot legally spray OTT dicamba that day.
No Federal Calendar Cutoff: Unlike previous labels, the EPA has not set a nationwide calendar deadline.

State-Specific Restrictions In Place

Illinois and Minnesota are two states, so far, that are going with stricter regulations for temperature and application timing cutoffs for dicamba.

Illinois is using an 85°F forecast high as the cutoff for dicamba applications in soybeans.

“If you load your sprayer and it is 78 degrees at 10 a.m. in the morning, but the forecasted high by the National Weather Service is supposed to be 85 or 86, that is a do-not-spray day,” says Kevin Johnson, director of government relations and strategy for the Illinois Soybean Association.

Deadline for application: Plan for a June 20 cutoff for OTT applications, Johnson says.

Minnesota:

Temperature: Minnesota is using an 85°F forecast high cutoff for dicamba applications in soybeans.

Deadline for applications: June 12 cutoff south of I-94; June 30 cutoff north of I-94, according to Dicamba Restrictions Announced for 2026 Growing Season .

Shifting Your Weed Control Strategy

Because of the tighter application timing windows in Illinois, Johnson anticipates there could be a shift in how farmers there use the chemistry. He expects many Illinois farmers to move dicamba to a pre-emergence timing rather than post-emergence, saving OTT dicamba only for “super high weed” pressure situations.

With many seed trait packages now stacking dicamba and glufosinate (Liberty) tolerance, Johnson says to expect “a lot more guys using Liberty on the back end.”

In addition, the EPA is tying dicamba use to mandatory conservation practices. Farmers can find more details on the Bulletins Live! Two Website

“We’re still waiting on a lot of details on what those conservation practices are,” Johnson says. “Bulletins Live! Two is a good website, but it’s, I’ll say clunky… it’s not real easy to just find one thing and find what you need,” he cautions.

Record Keeping: Don’t Risk A $700 Fine

The most immediate hurdle for many farmers interested in using the technology this spring will be the paperwork. In Illinois, the Department of Agriculture uses a 22-question record-keeping sheet specifically for dicamba.

“If I can stress anything in this call, do your record keeping,” Johnson emphasizes. “If you ever get called in on a complaint, the first thing they ask you for is your record keeping. If you do not have all 22 questions filled out, you are going to get a $700 fine. There’s no questions asked.”

To stay ahead of that risk, Johnson advises Illinois farmers to complete records on a timely basis, not “later when things slow down.” He urges them to fill out as much of the form as possible before the season begins, including static information about equipment, farm identifiers, and general practices, then finish the day-specific entries in the cab during or immediately after the job. Some of the information—like wind speed, wind direction, and exact application timing—can only be captured accurately in real time.

For custom applications, the legal burden for record keeping falls on the applicator, Johnson adds, but growers should still ask for copies for their own files and talk openly with retailers about documentation expectations.

All of this points toward one overarching need, Johnson says: have a clear herbicide game plan for 2026, especially if you plan to use dicamba, and build in contingencies. He addresses more of the dicamba requirements specific to Illinois farmers in a recent Field Advisor podcast, available here .

A 2014 Repeat? Why This Meteorologist Sees 'Bumper Crop Potential' for 2026

Wed, 11 Feb 2026 17:37:04 GMT

The weather outlook for 2026 is one of “cautious optimism.” While there is less immediate concern compared to the start of 2025, Matt Reardon, senior atmospheric scientist for Nutrien Ag Solutions, says the “spring predictability horizon” remains a factor where conditions could still shift.

El Niño and La Niña are the two opposing phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. This cycle describes the fluctuations in temperature between the ocean and atmosphere in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.

“That gives us some sense of where things might tilt weather-wise, particularly in winter,” Reardon says. “In summer, there are some correlations, too.”

For many U.S. farmers, El Niño is often welcomed because it can bring increased precipitation to major growing regions, though it can also cause flooding in some areas. Meanwhile, La Niña is frequently associated with increased drought risk in the Southern Plains and Mid-South, which can lead to yield-robbing conditions if the pattern persists into the summer.

“We tend to root for El Niño, particularly in North America, as it tends to be beneficial for our growing regions with a little more precipitation,” Reardon says. “But those correlations are very far from a home run. We’re talking just a slight lean in that direction.”

He says the forecast predicts fading out of La Niña pretty quickly in spring and heading toward an El Niño, potentially by summer.

What Can Farmers Expect This Spring?

“What I’m looking at as we head toward both spring planting then summertime heat and real drought risk in June and July is that one sea surface temperature is closer to home in the Northeast Pacific,” he says. “We found, especially this decade, that as those sea surface temperatures go, our season tends to go.”

Last year, with all the drought concerns going into 2025 growing season, water temperatures in the Northeast Pacific stayed warm – actually record warm.

“We had a great growing season for the most part with plenty of moisture, if not too much, in some areas,” Reardon says. “In 2023, those water temperatures stayed a little bit cooler, and we had more drought risk.”

Reardon admits he’s learned that “cautious optimism about where things are headed” is often helpful when determining weather expectations.

As he looks toward 2026, he sees a similar start to 2014, which was a huge bumper crop year.

“But things can change,” Reardon adds. “There’s that spring predictability horizon we’ve got to leap over here.”

Is Drought Likely in 2026?

One of his concerns is that the latest USDA Drought Monitor shows some overwinter drought, which he says isn’t uncommon.

“We’ve seen a lot of that this decade. Spring rains can quickly make up for a lot of that,” Reardon says.

On Feb. 9, the Southern Plains saw a lot of grass fires. He says some of those were prescribed burns, but winds will be picking up again over the next 10 days.

“We are keeping an eye on the Southern Plains,” Reardon says. “They are getting some rain over the next seven days, but that’s an area that’s so prone to drought, especially in spring. If we see it build there and then try to leach over to Little Rock or Nashville, that can start to become a concern.”

In big yield-robbing drought years, it often flares in the Mid-South or even the Southeast over into the southern plains, first in April or May, and then tends to spread north.

“That’s a common behavior of some of these big concerning years of the past like 2006 or 2012, so we are keeping an eye on that right now,” he says. “But the good news is, in the next 10 days, we are going to get some moisture into the ground.”

Why Soybeans Don't Need A Perfect Stand To Deliver High Yields

Tue, 27 Jan 2026 20:00:40 GMT

Soybeans are built to “improvise, adapt and overcome,” says Purdue Extension soybean specialist Shaun Casteel. But whether they can actually do that in your fields early in the season depends heavily on a few management decisions you control.

Here are three takeaways from Casteel’s recent presentation at the 2026 Illinois Soybean Field Advisor Forum that focus on his planting and replanting recommendations.

1. Before You Plant, Check The Forecast For The Following 24 Hours

Many farmers aim for the “50°F soil temp” rule when heading to fields to plant and, while that’s on track, Casteel thinks that’s only half right.

“Soybeans can germinate at [temperatures] as low as 36 to 43 degrees,” he said. “But it’s not necessarily soil temperature [we’re concerned about], even though that’s what we’re measuring, it’s the water temperature.”

A soybean seed must absorb (imbibe) approximately 50% of its own dry weight in moisture for germination to start. But if it absorbs cold water, the seed can be injured, resulting in damaged cell membranes, reduced germination, and dead or weak seedlings.

Casteel’s recommendation: if a cold front with rain is headed your way and likely to occur in the next 12 to 24 hours, hold off on planting, even if the soil temperature looks OK or you feel the calendar is pushing you to plant.

He adds that the time to soybean germination and emergence is related to heat unit accumulation (GDDs), noting there “is >50% emergence after 140 to 160 air GDDs.”

2. Aim for 1.5" Planting Depth and Good Seed-to-Soil Contact
Planting depth is important for soybeans’ ability to emerge well, and it also plays a big role in setting up root hair growth, nodulation and the plants’ access to nutrients.

“If you don’t have good root hair development, guess what? You don’t have good nodulation, you don’t have a good nitrogen supply. Kiss those high yields goodbye,” Casteel says.

As a rule of thumb for planting, he recommends farmers place soybean seed at 1.5” deep with a variance of between 1.25” to 1.75” depending on soil moisture and residue.

He advises against chasing moisture too deep, like you might if planting corn, as soybeans don’t handle deeper planting well. What happens if you plant too deep? Casteel says there are commonly three results:

1) The hypocotyl has to pull cotyledons farther to reach the surface. 2) That extra distance costs time and energy, so emergence is slower and less uniform. 3) In cool or crust-prone soils, deep-planted beans are more likely to stall or die before they break through the soil surface.

3. Don’t Be In A Hurry To Replant Soybeans. Evaluate Your Stand Thoroughly First.

Casteel urges farmers to be more cautious about replanting soybeans. His own line in the sand is around 70,000 plants per acre. At or above that level, with healthy, evenly distributed plants, his data shows soybeans usually deliver about 95% of full yield potential, making a replant hard to justify. He also notes that stands in the 66,000 to 100,000 range often end up with very similar yield results.

The reason is soybeans will compensate. In delayed-emergence and overseeding studies, Casteel says he found that when part of the stand emerged late, the original plants simply “branched more and produced a larger share of the yield.”

In one scenario he evaluated, the original plants contributed 60% of the yield and the late-emerging plants 40%, yet the total yield matched a uniform stand. In a V2-type “replant” timing, roughly 95% of yield still came from the original soybean plants and only 5% from the later ones.

Because of that, Casteel says most soybean replants at V2 are “just making us feel good rather than making us more money.” Once plants are established and starting to branch, overseeding or tearing them up rarely changes the final bushels much, but it does add cost and risk.

Where he says a “full reset” is likely needed is when stands are around 50,000 to 60,000 plants per acre and it’s still roughly the first week of May—before the original plants have much node development or branching. Outside of that scenario, his research and experience say the better decision is usually to leave the stand alone and let soybeans compensate.

If you can manage that, Casteel contends soybeans will usually do what they’re designed to do: “They can improvise, adapt and overcome. It’s our job not to get in the way,” he says.

Hear Casteel’s complete presentation at the Field Advisor Forum on YouTube here . Be sure to check out what he says about managing corn residue after the 2026 harvest, so it doesn’t negatively impact your soybean crop the following year.

Timing of La Niña Exit, El Niño Entrance is Unclear, Raising Questions About Dryness for Spring and Summer

Wed, 21 Jan 2026 14:32:21 GMT

Farmers across the U.S. are watching the Pacific closely this year as NOAA predicts La Niña could exit faster than expected, potentially giving way to an El Niño later in 2026. While this transition could bring shifts in rainfall patterns, experts caution the change will likely be gradual, meaning parts of the country could remain dry well into spring.

NOAA is now forecasting La Niña to exit by spring and El Niño to possibly enter the picture this year, but not all meteorologists agree on the timing of that. Drew Lerner, agricultural meteorologist and founder of World Weather , says the key is when this transition takes place, and when warming ocean temperatures occur, as to how it could change weather conditions for not just planting but also the growing season ahead.

Two Weather Patterns Driving Dryness

What’s scary for farmers today is just how dry it is across parts of the West, Southwest, Southeast and Midwest. Similar to last winter, a dry fall was only exasperated by a fairly dry winter, with drought a growing threat heading into spring.

The map that shows percent of normal precipitation shows the areas of the country desperately in need of more moisture heading into spring for both crops and pasture conditions.

(World Weather )

Farmers have a reason to be concerned. According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor drought and dry conditions remain widespread across the country:

About 35.7% of the U.S. (including Puerto Rico) is in drought (D1–D4)
More than 42.5% of the Lower 48 is also in drought conditions
Moderate to severe drought levels have worsened in parts of south-central Texas into Arkansas/Missouri and from Florida to Virginia over the past week

Meanwhile, California, long a drought focal point, has recently been reported as drought-free for the first time in about 25 years after significant winter storms.

Over the next five to seven days, much of the western half of the U.S. is anticipated to be dry from the West into the Plains. The wettest areas are anticipated to be over the Great Lakes region and into the Northeast.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

What’s driving the dryness across the rest of the country? Lerner says it’s two-fold.

“We’ve actually got two major patterns at work right now,” Lerner says. “One is La Niña, which is definitely influencing the drier tendencies across the central U.S., and the other is an upper wind flow pattern tied to the lunar cycle. Together, they’re keeping cold surges coming into eastern North America and limiting rainfall across much of the Plains.”

Subsoil moisture maps also paint the picture of how dry it is across portions of the U.S.

(World Weather )

Current soil moisture charts also show large swaths of dryness in the west-central and southwestern Plains, amplifying concerns heading into spring.

“These areas aren’t likely to get another good drink of water anytime soon; we had a little break last week, but it’s temporary,” Lerner says. “Even though the Midwest doesn’t look too bad for this time of year, much of Missouri, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana and northwestern Ohio should already have saturated soil. Still, we’re in a droughty environment.”

The Big Debate: How Quickly Will La Niña Exit?

According to NOAA models, Lerner explains, La Niña is in place but expected to exit rapidly, with a possible shift to El Niño by May.

“You can see the ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are still cooler than normal,” Lerner says “To qualify for La Niña, you need roughly half a degree Celsius below normal, and that’s exactly what we have right now.”

World Weather’s Drew Lerner says if history is any indication, NOAA’s forecast model for ocean warming temperatures may be too aggressive.

(World Weather )

However, he warns that the NOAA model predicting a quick exit has historically been overly aggressive, and last year was a perfect example of that.

“If you look back at the last two years, the model forecast La Niña would develop by May or June, but it didn’t actually arrive until the fourth quarter,” Lerner says. “I think the model is too warm for a rapid exit this year as well. My expectation is that El Niño won’t really show up until the latter part of the third quarter or into the fourth quarter.”

Earlier this month, NOAA issued its latest La Niña forecast, saying La Niña is likely to persist for now, but that’s followed by a 75% chance of a transition to ENSO neutral during January to March. ENSO Neutral, according to NOAA, is likely to develop in at least the northern hemisphere through late spring 2026.

“Here’s what I take away from this, and I’ve been chatting about this and other meteorologists have been chatting about this for a while,” says Brian Bledsoe of Brian Bledsoe Weather . “I have great respect for NOAA and the National Weather Service, but to be honest with you, I think they’re a little late to the party with how this transition is going to unfold because what’s going on in the Pacific Ocean right now is a pretty significant transition away from the La Niña. So I think we have seen this event peak, and I think it is going to exit more quickly than maybe what NOAA’s forecast is currently suggesting.”

Bledsoe says not only does he think NOAA is late to the party in forecasting La Niña’s departure, but he also thinks the U.S. will see a transition to El Niño faster than what NOAA currently shows.

“Initially what that can do, and what that can mean, is that transition period, it can still have some dryness produce across the Plains and across the Corn Belt, at least early on in that transition,” Bledsoe says. “History suggests that after that early transition is gone, that a lot of us will have wetter than average conditions try to show up during the heart of the growing season.”

Bledsoe says that is several months away and difficult to forecast, but he says there are different models that indicate this scenario and a quick transition can also bring wild weather.

Brett Walz Sees a Neutral Spring, Possible El Niño Summer

Brett Walz, meteorologist with Bam WX , also thinks we could be saying good-bye to La Niña in the next couple of weeks.

“I’m starting to see the shifts and getting away from La Niña probably in the next couple of weeks,” he tells “AgriTalk’s” Chip Flory. “We’ll warm the waters up and get into what we call ENSO Neutral as we work into spring. I really think that by summer we can get into an El Niño.”

Walz also notes ENSO-neutral springs often bring a mix of dry and volatile conditions.

“The back half of the season tends to see some dryness, especially in the Upper Midwest,” he says. “May 2023 was a very dry month leading into planting and the start of the growing season, and I see some similarities here. Before that, March and early April could be a little volatile, with some ups and downs and even early-season severe weather.”

Implications for Spring Planting

For U.S. farmers, the combination of lingering La Niña effects and a transitional ENSO-neutral spring could mean dryness persists in critical growing regions through spring.

“Parts of the central U.S., especially the western Corn Belt and hard red winter wheat areas, are going to see below-normal precipitation during spring,” Lerner says. “The Delta and lower Midwest may do a little better, but overall, we’re looking at a spring that won’t dramatically relieve the dryness farmers have been dealing with.”

He points out analogs from past ENSO years support this outlook, but then the forecast flips to more moisture in summer for more northern states, with dryness parked in the South.

“Three of the four years I’ve analyzed moved from La Niña into neutral conditions through early summer, then transitioned to a weak El Niño later,” Lerner says. “We generally see a wetter bias in the northern Plains and parts of the Midwest in summer, while the Southeast may fall back into drier conditions after a brief spring break.”

“If we were to suddenly shift into El Niño, we’d see more rainfall in the Plains and western Corn Belt during spring,” he adds. “But given the history of these forecast models, it’s unlikely we’ll see a dramatic shift until later this year.”

___________________________________________________________________________________________________
Summer Outlook: A Mixed Picture

Looking ahead, both Lerner and Walz see the potential for wetter conditions later in the growing season:

Northern Plains and parts of the Midwest could see above-average precipitation in summer
Southeastern U.S. could experience drier conditions after a brief spring respite
The western Corn Belt and hard red winter wheat regions will likely remain dry through spring

___________________________________________________________________________________________________

Impacts on South America’s Weather

Walz says these ENSO shifts have global implications, particularly for South America.

“There’s a lag in how La Niña affects South America, because their growing season is opposite ours,” he says. “Currently, we’re still seeing dryness across Argentina and Southeast Brazil, but as La Niña weakens, we may start getting rains back into Brazil, especially by the back half of February.”

But up until this point, Lerner says La Niña isn’t having much of an impact on South America’s weather, which he says is a byproduct of the very weak status of the current La Niña event.

“And if you look at the soil assessment there in Brazil and Argentina, you can see the moisture profile is really not too bad,” Lerner says. “Now we are starting to dry out portions of Buenos Aires and some of the neighboring areas there in Entre Rios and southern Santa Fe, even southern Cordova, and we do to see some significant moisture in these areas.”

Subsoil moisture maps in South America show a couple areas of dryness, but Brazil looks to have adequate moisture for now.

(World Weather )

He points out just last week some of the computer forecast models were trying to generate a La Niña-like ridge of high pressure over Argentina through these next 10 days.

“And if that happens, we will continue to dry down Argentina, but more so in the east rather than the south, and it will go ahead and spread a little bit into southern Brazil,” Lerner says. “But, as far as La Niña events is concerned, this one has not brought much dryness to South America, and most of the South America crops, up until now, have been doing very well.”

He says if La Niña does dissipate in February, then it’s going to probably start raining again in these drier biased areas.

“I think that this short-term bout of ridge development and drier bias conditions in Argentina, Brazil, will not likely last long enough to have a big impact on the bottom line,” he adds.

What U.S. Farmers Need to Know Going Forward

Spring 2026 could bring a mix of dryness, volatility and early-season severe weather in key U.S. crop areas. Irrigation management and soil moisture monitoring will be critical. Farmers should also keep an eye on South American conditions, which influence global markets, especially for soybeans and corn.

“Farmers shouldn’t rely on a sudden shift to El Niño to solve moisture deficits,” Lerner emphasizes. “Prepare for continued dry spells in spring, and be ready to take advantage of wetter periods later in the year if they arrive.”

Walz adds: “This spring will be ENSO-neutral, a transitional period, but summer could bring a true El Niño — something that isn’t common but could have significant implications for rainfall patterns and planting decisions.”

Master Your Emotions To Drive More Profitable Crop Decisions

Mon, 12 Jan 2026 16:57:05 GMT

As plans for the coming season take shape, many corn and soybean growers continue looking for places to cut expenses. That’s understandable, but if those cuts are driven by emotion instead of hard numbers, they can create expensive mistakes.

“I truly believe that to improve on what we are going to do, we need to evaluate what we have already done,” says Ken Ferrie, Farm Journal Field Agronomist. “Then, a good evaluation of our existing plan can involve actual numbers and less emotion.”

Ferrie likes to start the evaluation process with information from calibrated yield monitors and a disciplined, field‑by‑field review from the previous season.

“[It’s important to] sit down with your farm crew to evaluate each field, seeing how last year’s plan worked out, looking for answers to both the success and the disappointments of the past year,” he says.

Consider What You Had Control Over

A central theme to consider in the process is learning to separate what factors were under your control from those that weren’t. “Be sure to separate Mother Nature’s effect on yield from your management decisions,” he stresses.

Soybean crop performance is a good example of how weather impacted performance and was out of farmers’ control in parts of Illinois. Ferrie explains that in recent years, many growers have used a spread of maturities to manage risk, from roughly 2.6 to 4.2 group beans. That strategy experienced a hiccup when weather turned against full‑season beans this past summer.

“In areas where we saw little to no rain in August and early September locally, these full-season beans lacked the moisture needed to give us big beans,” Ferrie says. “What we saw is that the 3.5 to 4.2 group had kind of lackluster yield compared to the 2.5 to the 3.3 beans.”

The danger, he says, is if farmers react to this single year as if it provides a rule to follow. “If we don’t rely on past yield history and don’t plug in this last season’s weather conditions, we can make an emotional decision that late maturity beans don’t work for me, that I need to cut them from my lineup,” he explains.

But the whole point of using a wide maturity range is risk management. “When you plant a wide range of maturities to mitigate risk, you shouldn’t plan on hitting it out of the ballpark with all of them, because that seldom happens,” Ferrie says. “We don’t know what lies ahead for [2026] weather. We might have a drought. We might not.”

Corn tells a similar story. Weather during pollination—like the “days that we had the heavy fog during pollination” — are showing up clearly on yield maps. Good scouting records are critical for interpreting those maps correctly.

“Good scouting records from the pest team can help sort out pollination issues caused by weather,” he says. “When you combine your past data with this year’s scouting records and weather data, we make better decisions, what worked, what didn’t and why.”

Is Soil Insecticide On Your Cutting Block?

With budget tightening well underway, another recurring question Ferrie has been fielding from farmers is whether to cut soil insecticide on the planter. The answer, at least in Illinois, is to consider how much damage your corn crop is incurring from rootworm.

Field scouting this past season underscored how uneven rootworm pressure can be, according to Ferrie. One consideration is watching root feeding and beetle traps and beetle activity, because many times you can see the problem advancing toward your fields. But he cautions against knee-jerk reactions. For instance, he says to avoid making a decision to eliminate soil insecticide on the planter just because your neighbor is cutting it.

On the other hand, field data can support some risk‑taking where rootworm pressure truly is low. “If we’ve dug and done root washes that show very little rootworm feeding, and we put in some insecticide plots, and I’m seeing little to no response, it’s a lot easier to take the insecticide off the planter,” Ferrie says. But he adds a firm warning: “There’s no rescue for rootworm damage. Once the corn goes down, we can’t make it stand up.”

Assign A Pest Boss For Your Farm

Ferrie frequently addresses the importance and value a pest boss can deliver for your crops. He says to make sure and involve them in your planning meetings for the upcoming season.

“We talk about the importance of a good pest team and a pest boss… they can save your operation a lot of money and/or hassle,” he notes. “The insights they can provide during your winter meetings can help you create a successful and more cost-effective input use and management plan for the upcoming season.”

Reviewing calibrated yield data, scouting records, and using an honest assessment of weather and pest pressure by field are the tools that separate smart cuts from costly ones, Ferrie adds.

Here more about Ferrie’s instructions on making smart cuts for 2026 in his latest Boots In The Field podcast:

2026 Weather Outlook: La Niña’s Quick Exit, El Niño’s Potential and the Signals Farmers Should Watch

Thu, 08 Jan 2026 14:37:04 GMT

After a year that challenged nearly every long-range forecast, weather uncertainty remains a dominant theme heading into 2026. Shifting climate signals with La Niña looking to make a quick exit, evolving ocean temperatures and global production concerns are once again forcing producers and markets to stay flexible.

Eric Snodgrass, senior science fellow and atmospheric scientist with Nutrien Ag Solutions, says the lessons of 2025 serve as a reminder even confident outlooks can unravel quickly, and that adaptability is critical as weather patterns reset. But overall, he thinks 2026 could bring favorable weather, especially for crop production.

2025: A Year Forecasts Missed

Coming into 2025, a growing body of forecasts pointed toward drought risk across the western and central Corn Belt. Those concerns were based on long-term dryness signals that had appeared consistently for nearly a decade. But as spring unfolded, the atmosphere took a sharp turn.

“2025 didn’t shape up like any forecast thought it would,” Snodgrass says. “Instead of the widespread drought everyone was worried about, we ended up with flooding, excess moisture and major disease pressure.”

Heavy rains in April and May triggered widespread flooding across the Mid-South, Delta and southern Plains, replenishing soil moisture and wiping out early drought fears. While summer brought hot overnight temperatures, frequent storms in June, July and early August kept crops supplied with moisture — but created ideal conditions for disease.

“If you were in the Corn Belt, you were fighting southern rust and tar spot,” Snodgrass says. “If you hit twice with fungicide, yields were there. If not, disease pressure took a real toll.”

Warm overnight temperatures combined with frequent rainfall created ideal conditions for crop disease across much of the Corn Belt. Southern rust and tar spot became widespread issues, reinforcing how excess moisture can be just as damaging as dryness when timing and intensity aren’t favorable.

Despite those challenges, U.S. production came in strong overall, shifting attention to the global balance sheet and, in particular, South America.

South America Avoids Major Stress... For Now

With the U.S. crop largely established, concerns turned south as traders and analysts monitored planting progress and moisture conditions in Brazil and Argentina. Early delays raised questions, but recent rainfall across key growing regions helped stabilize crop conditions.

He says vegetation health indicators, including NDVI data, show little evidence of widespread stress heading into early 2026. While La Niña is typically associated with dryness risk in parts of South America, its influence so far has been muted — and that has kept weather-driven market anxiety in check.

The bigger question now isn’t how La Niña has behaved so far, but how long it will remain in place.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issued a report earlier this month that says La Niña is present and is “favored to continue for the next month or two.”

CPC says it’s important to note:

El Niño: characterized by a positive ONI (the rolling three-month average temperature anomaly) greater than or equal to +0.5ºC.
La Niña: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC.

To be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, CPC says it’s those thresholds that must be exceeded for a period of at least five consecutive overlapping three-month seasons.

The Growing Likelihood of El Niño in 2026

The move to possible ENSO neutral conditions.

(CPC )

Snodgrass says as La Niña is in place to start 2026, it’s a pattern that typically brings cooler, wetter conditions to the northern U.S. and warmer, drier weather to the South. However, he adds the event may not last.

“I was wrong earlier when I thought 2026 might mirror 2025,” he admits. “That dialogue is gone.”

Most major forecasting centers, particularly European models, suggest La Niña could exit quickly in January or February. By spring, there’s roughly a 50% chance El Niño conditions could emerge — a major departure from last year’s pattern.

“That fast exit changes everything,” Snodgrass says.

CPC agrees. In a statement released Thursday, January 8 , CPC says there are now growing chances of an El Niño this year.

“La Niña may still have some lingering influence through the early Northern Hemisphere spring 2026. For longer forecast horizons, there are growing chances of El Niño, though there remains uncertainty given the lower accuracy of model forecasts through the spring,” says the CPC. “In summary, La Niña persists, followed by a 75% chance of a transition to ENSO-neutral during January-March 2026. ENSO-neutral is likely through at least Northern Hemisphere late spring 2026.”

The IRI multi-model predictions indicate ENSO-neutral will emerge during January-March (JFM) 2026.

(CPC )

What a Faster Transition Could Mean for Spring

If La Niña fades quickly, spring could offer more favorable planting opportunities across key production regions. Drier periods and fewer prolonged storm systems would be favorable for spring planting.

“Two of the analogs I’m watching closely are 2009 and 2018,” Snodgrass says. “Those were pretty good crop years across much of the Midwest.”

Still, Snodgrass cautions confidence will increase only as March and April weather patterns become clearer. Until then, flexibility remains essential. He says at this stage, however, the pattern looks supportive rather than threatening.

“Right now, I like what I see,” Snodgrass says.

The Most Important Signals to Watch in 2026

While ocean temperatures remain important, particularly in the Gulf of Alaska, Snodgrass says one indicator stands above the rest as spring approaches.

“Watch where the severe weather sets up,” he says.

If spring storms focus across the Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio River valleys, including the Delta and surrounding states, then Snodgrass explains that typically reduces the risk of summer drought. But if severe weather stays concentrated farther west, like in western Kansas, Colorado or western Nebraska, that’s when concerns begin to rise.

“If the storm chasers are far away from the Mississippi River, my ears perk up,” Snodgrass says. “If they’re chasing storms all through that valley, I feel much better about moisture and drought risk.”

Global Weather Still Shapes the Market

Even with improving signals at home, global production remains a major market driver. As U.S. farmers prepare for planting, attention will also remain on South America’s safrinha corn crop.

“Does that crop go in on time? Does it have moisture stress late?” he asks. “Those questions still matter, and they can tug on markets while we’re focused on planting here.”

Late-season moisture stress or planting delays there could tighten global supplies and inject volatility into prices. That makes spring a uniquely complex period, one where weather developments across multiple continents can influence market direction simultaneously.

What Farmers Need to Keep in Mind

After a year defined by surprises, 2026 is shaping up with a different set of risks — and opportunities. A faster La Niña exit, improving spring conditions and historically favorable analogs provide cautious optimism, but weather remains an ever-moving target.

“These are early signals, not guarantees,” he says. “But knowing what to watch, and when, makes all the difference.”

For producers and markets alike, the key will be watching the right signals at the right time.

La Niña Versus El Niño: Why the Difference Matters

La Niña and El Niño are opposite phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and each carries distinct implications for U.S. and global agriculture.

La Niña Typically Brings:

Cooler, wetter conditions across the northern U.S.
Warmer, drier weather across the southern Plains and Southeast
Increased drought risk in the Delta and parts of South America
Greater risk of spring temperature extremes and uneven rainfall

El Niño Typically Brings:

Wetter conditions across the southern U.S.
Milder winter temperatures in much of the Midwest
Reduced drought risk in key U.S. production regions
Higher rainfall potential in South America during critical growth stages

A fast shift from La Niña to El Niño can dramatically alter planting windows, early-season moisture availability and disease risk. For markets, these transitions often drive volatility as traders reassess yield potential and global supply outlooks.

Understanding when the transition occurs can be just as important as which phase dominates.

Meteorologists Say to Prepare For An Active December

Wed, 26 Nov 2025 19:03:07 GMT

For those in the Midwest, a low pressure system arrived Tuesday night bringing strong winds — a wide area of wind advisories — and for some winter precipitation.

“Wisconsin is having an amazing snow event today,” says Eric Snodgrass, meteorologist for Nutrien, in his latest YouTube update. “There’s a blizzard warning in northern Wisconsin.”

Are there more rounds of snow coming and will it be widespread?
While Snodgrass says for most, Thanksgiving Day itself will be quiet-weather-wise, the day after brings increased interest for travel-effecting weather, especially for those east of the Rocky Mountains.

“There will be 10°F to 20°F temp drops through the northern Plains to the Gulf coast,” Snodgrass says. “Snow is more probably because of the cold temperatures — the transition line between rain and snow on Saturday night — we don’t know. It’s going to be a fine line.”

He points to parts of Missouri, Illinois, most of Iowa, Minnesota and all of Wisconsin and Michigan to see some snow. With Wisconsin and Michigan seeing models indicating snow totals from 1’ to 2’. There will be better precipitation chances for the southeast in the form of rain.

The precipitation event forecast comes with greater confidence heading into the holiday weekend.

“I was happy to see the models align this morning,” Snodgrass says.

Eric Snodgrass highlights the latest ECMWF Ensemble forecast for getting at least 3" and 6" of snow through Thanksgiving weekend.

(AgWx.com)

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey notes some will see extreme cold for the first time this winter.

“Look for our first outbreak of sub-zero temperatures of the 25/26 winter season,” Rippey says. “And by Monday morning, December 1, those sub-zero temperatures will encompass large parts of the northern Plains and upper Midwest.”

And then early next week, there’s another system moving from the Mississippi delta through the southeast to bring additional rainfall totals.

Some areas that will remain dry through early December include the Canadian prairies, California and the southwest.

The First of Many
“It’s the post-Thanksgiving period that I’m most concerned about. We will be looking at a series of storms moving out of the northwest and eventually reaching the nation’s midsection,” Rippey says. “If you’re going to wait a little bit for heading home after the holiday, do look for some potential for very disruptive weather late Sunday into Monday, eventually reaching airports like Denver and spreading toward Chicago as we head into the first day of December.”

Rippey adds as we head into the winter months it’s reasonable to expect it to be colder and much more stormy across a vast swath of the country.

Grain Movement Into New Orleans Shifts From Usual Routes This Fall

Fri, 21 Nov 2025 19:47:04 GMT

Year-over-year, Susan Olson says there are few interesting updates comparing how the Mississippi River is being used for grain transport.

Most surprising to her is according to USDA data there was a 3.4 million metric ton increase in grain exports from NOLA in mid-year 2025, however from her firm’s proprietary data, barge movements decreased. This could mean a shift toward rail being used to bring grain to the port for export.

(Action Intel)

Olson founded Action Intel, which uses proprietary data combining AIS signals that come from tow boats, imagery, computer vision tools and more to analyze barge movement and logistics volumes. Since 2023, the company has assembled barges per tow and reported its data.

Trade Flow and Logistics

While September and October usually usher in higher barge volumes due to grain harvest in the Corn Belt, this year did not see as high of a peak for traffic into New Orleans.

“Patterns changed this year. The numbers are lower and aren’t the peak of October last year. It is a little less than 1 million metric tons lower this fall into NOLA,” Olson. “Outbound north from NOLA volume is up 1 million metric tons. Also, notable, we are very slowly increasing trends in liquid tows moving in and out of NOLA.”

(Action Intel)

Increased backhauls is being attributed to another trend emerging this year – longer turn times for dry bulk tows. In 2024, turn times for dry bulks tows averaged 4.8 day but it’s up to 5.6 days in 2025. Olson points out backhauls usually carry fertilizer, metals, minerals, salt, etc.

“We could be seeing a change in the historic trends and a flattening of supply and demand of barges instead of peaks,” she says. “It could be a trend this year and may not persist. But we’ll have to watch the logistical patterns and flows changing.”

To-date in 2025, grain barge freight rates have remained high, averaging 500% to 600% of tariff compared to 400% tariff in 2024. Converted to dollars per ton, the first quarter of 2024 averaged $18.71/ton, and the first quarter of 2025 averaged $25.20/ton.

Delays and wait times also rose with higher barge wait times in 2025 due to lock delays and high water levels. In Cairo, Ill., this year saw an average of 1,000 barges waiting compared to 800 in 2024. The first half of 2025 had high water levels and lock delays, which contributed to the waits, whereas the second has been plagued with lower water levels and the slower turn times.

In September, the Coast Guard issued low water restrictions on barge drafts and configurations, which are still in place on the lower Mississippi River. Earlier this week, the Coast Guard issues an update to deep water tows to leave the St. Louis area, and all vessels to travel at slow speed because of narrow channel width.

For marketing year 2024, corn was 32% of the exports out of New Orleans (5.5 MMT), and in 2025, corn is 48% (7.6 MMT).

“The reduction in exports of soybeans to China has changed what exports overall look like,” Olson says.

Looking at the top 15 destinations for corn exports out of New Orleans, there’s been a dramatic shift.

(Action Intel/USDA)

Normal La Niña Pattern to Return By Thanksgiving

Tue, 18 Nov 2025 21:47:22 GMT

What are the primary weather events being watched by the leading ag meteorologists right now? Here’s a round-up.

A Bit of an Oddball La Niña

“We need to be really careful about making big assumptions about this La Niña. It is not a classic La Niña,” says Drew Lerner, World Weather, Inc. He points to two large rain events in the southern U.S. Plains this past week.

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey adds southern California has also received a lot of precipitation. He says it’s the timing and strength of the La Niña bringing a different pattern than could be expected.

“The big thing we’re watching is the fact that we’re in a La Niña during the month of September for the fifth time in six years,” Rippey says. “And with that, November’s been a little bit strange so far. We haven’t fully kicked into what you would expect to see with a La Niña regime.”

More Precipitation on Its Way

“We also have a lot of warm ocean water between Hawaii and California, so watch for more heavy rain, like we saw this week coming into California a little later in the winter,” Lerner says.

Rippey says people across the Great Plains can expect more storms through this week.

“Given the fact that we are heading into a La Niña winter, we need the moisture across the southern Plains now,” Rippey says. “It looks like more of a La Niña regime setting in for the latter part of November and certainly by Thanksgiving. By that I mean stormier, colder weather across the north, and some of that warm and dry weather should become more established across the South. It’ll be a while until we get there.”

The week of Thanksgiving is showing some increased chance for winter storms and perhaps travel-impactful weather events.

Droughty Conditions Bring Concerns

Dry weather persists in key grazing areas, which Matt Makens from Makens Weather says is his biggest concern for the rest of this year and early into 2026.

Lerner adds: “The northern Plains and neighboring areas of Canada’s prairies won’t see much precipitation. There’s still a big, bad drought up there, and they’re hoping for better moisture. But in the meantime, our wheat that’s in the soft wheat that’s in the lower Midwest bowl will get a nice drink of water.”

Pacific Storm Season Brought More Action Than the Atlantic

Reflecting on the ongoing hurricane season, Rippey says while it was indicated we could have an active season, there have been only 13 named storms and only five hurricanes.

Without any major storms making landfall in the U.S., Rippey points to a few factors:

“We had the African feeder storms, the thunderstorms that come off the African coast, came off a little further north than they normally would. And that put some of those thunderstorm complexes into a more hostile environment as they developed or tried to develop,” he says.
“We had a protective jet stream across the eastern United States, a little dip along the East Coast of the United States that really forced any developing storms to recurve before they ever reach the United States,” he says.

“A lot of that moisture ended up in the western United States eventually, remnant tropical moisture, and that certainly has helped to chip away at the drought across the western United States, courtesy of the active eastern Pacific season with 18 overall named storms,” Rippey adds.

Planting Season Outlook

While planting season is about five months away for many, the weather trends are tipping the scales to a slow start.

“I still have some confidence in saying that some of the northern areas of the country — northern plains, upper Midwest — could face a spring with a delayed warm-up,” Rippey says. “We could see some snowy cold conditions lingering into the early to mid-spring across some of those northern production areas. Typically coming out of La Niña, we do see a later planting season in the north, and we will have to watch drought in the south.”

La Niña Will Flip to El Niño

As for what’s ahead in the new year, Maken says while we might start with a La Niña, toward the end of the year, we’ll flip into an El Niño.

“And when you do this flip, it depends on how quickly it flips, because it can mean a lot of rainfall for a lot of folks,” he says. “And not that La Niña and El Niño are the end-all, be-alls, but they’re the major players in the room. Some really like hearing El Niño. Others really do not like the person saying that.”

The Scoop Podcast: When We Could Flip Into An El Nino Pattern

Fri, 14 Nov 2025 20:25:45 GMT

Matt Makens from Makens Weather will present at the 2025 ARA Conference and Expo. On The Scoop Podcast, he shares a recap of the weather trends most effecting agriculture in 2025 and gives a preview for his outlook going into 2026.

Here are three top observations:

First Push of Cold

“This week and last week, too, the last couple of weeks, we’ve been chatting about this big freeze that’s hitting the U.S.,” he says. “It was the first really strong seasonal push of cold, and it went all the way down to the Gulf.”
Droughty Conditions Bring Concerns

Dry weather persists in key grazing areas, which he says is his biggest concern for the rest of this year and early into 2026.

And there’s dryness effecting the inland river systems as Makens is also watching dry weather over the past 45 days effecting the Mississippi River Valley.
Surprises This Summer Set New Expectations

Maken says this past summer is an example of how seasonal forecasts were set, but then the observations of those forecasts were delayed. And therefore, it comes down to the science and communicating it better to help those who could be effected in the industry.

“We really have to be much more on top of long-term seasonal weather forecasts and the impact, because there was some indication by May, and certainly by June, that this summer is not going to be what we would normally think of for summer and here are some impacts. And if we can do a better job of communicating that probability then, any retailer, any producer, anybody, that had those impacts at least would have had a better idea in their head that it was possible. At least they would say, oh, there’s a 1 in 3 chance that this panned out.”

Looking Into 2026

As for what’s ahead in the new year, Maken says while we may start with a La Nina, toward the end of the year, we’ll flip into an El Nino.

“And when you do this flip, it depends on how quickly it flips, because it can mean a lot of rainfall for a lot of folks,” he says. “And not that La Nina and El Nino are the end-all, be-alls, but they’re the major players in the room. Some really like hearing El Nino. Others really do not like the person saying that.”

Makens says there have been 25-year cycles to these weather patterns, with our current cycle producing more La Nina events. This has been a factor in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events.

“It increases your risk of severe weather events, including hail and wind,” he says.

Regarding increased precipitation and flooding, he says “There are long-term patterns of shifting precipitation, like huge bullseyes, several states’ size, and where that precipitation area moves. And over the last 100 years, it’s been moving progressively into the Corn Belt and northwest of the Corn Belt. What impact does that bring? It increases your risk of flooding. increases your overnight temperatures, so now your sugaring processes are now different. Now we’ve discovered, over the last couple of decades, we’ve increased the amount of precip in corn regions by at least a third, by at least 30%, on top of what naturally would be there.”

Two Livestock-Related Updates

Makens is watching two livestock pest threats—from the north and the south.

Regarding New World Screwworm, he say research from the last big outbreak in the 1950s/1960s showed the ideal temperature for the flies, which is between 80 and 82 degrees.

“Once we pass September and October, really the only habitable location for these flies in a typical year would be far south Texas, Florida, perhaps southern New Mexico, perhaps Southern California,” he says.

For next year, he’s watching the seasonal wind pattern that moves the flies from central or southern Mexico starting in May.

“That is a big concern for next year, because the only way to control them is a sterile fly technique. And to date, we do not have a facility anywhere near completion to control that, so we have to rely on the weather to do our controlling for us.”

With some earlier than normal infections of HPAI, Makens says weather is a factor in the spread of the disease, but it’s a bit harder to track.

“In winters like this. our temperatures will be very volatile. There’ll be swings of very, very warm days. And then very, very cold days. And I think there is a connection to bird flu spread in those warmer periods,” he says.

Click here to learn more about the 2025 ARA Conference and Expo, Dec. 2 to 4 in Salt Lake City.

Drought Conditions Require Careful Attention To Fall Tillage Practices

Fri, 07 Nov 2025 17:57:39 GMT

With harvest now in the rearview mirror in many areas, farmers are focusing their attention on fall tillage. The soil type you’re working in and where you farm are making a big difference on how fall tillage is going, according to Ken Ferrie, Farm Journal Field Agronomist.

Some fields in Illinois and surrounding states that had excessive rainfall last spring have ruts and compaction to address but are currently in the midst of D2 and D3 drought levels. With that challenge in mind, Here’s a look at some tillage options by system:

Strip-Till: In lighter soils – particularly light silt loams – Ferrie says farmers are creating good strip-till berms, with few to no chunks or clods that will have to be addressed next spring.

“These will mellow out and create a pretty decent seedbed next spring. Even though the soil is hard and dried out, the lighter soils are stripping nice,” he reports.

That’s not the case where farmers are working heavier ground with clay to clay-loam soils. Strip tilling in these soils is creating a rougher environment that Ferrie is afraid will lead to some tough seedbeds next spring.

“If you’re running a strip freshener next spring, much of this problem can be corrected, but only if you’re running that freshener before these large clods become dried clods in the spring,” he says. “Clods that get smashed into the furrow by the planter next spring will create some germination issues.”

If you use a strip freshener, one avenue Ferrie says you might consider is to bypass the fall strips and just freshen them in the spring to achieve a good seedbed. But if conditions continue to be dry going into next spring, he would advise farmers to conserve available moisture and just no-till the field.

Conventional-till: To eliminate ruts in conventional-till, use a chisel plow or disk ripper on cornstalks, then follow with a leveling pass next spring. Run a chisel plow at a slight angle across the wheel tracks to break up soil compaction.

In bean stubble with 4" ruts, use a soil finisher and level in the spring. If ruts are 6" to 8", use a chisel plow to fill them in first. If possible, spot chisel to fix only the areas in the field with ruts. Follow with a soil finisher pass next spring. Use aerial imagery from the growing season to help determine whether you can patch the field or if it all needs to be worked.

Vertical-till: In a corn-to-soybean rotation with ruts or severe pinch rows, use a chisel plow in the cornstalks followed by a vertical-till leveling pass next spring. When using a chisel plow, make sure you achieve full width shatter from shank to shank for optimum results, Ferrie says.

In a soybean-to-corn rotation, use an in-line ripper in bean stubble when dealing with pinch rows and 4" ruts. Run the in-line ripper at an angle to make sure you cross the ruts or pinch rows. If you run with the rows, it might not bust wheel tracks apart; it will only pick them up and set them back down. In these scenarios, it will likely take two passes with a vertical-till leveling tool next spring to eliminate the tracks.

In 6" to 8" ruts, don’t use an in-line ripper. Instead, Ferrie suggests using a chisel plow. If ruts are spotty, chisel them in first and then in-line rip the entire field, leaving a large portion of the field covered in residue. If deep ruts appear across the entire field, run the chisel plow across it all.

Be sure to respect land contour to eliminate erosion.

Deep ruts usually aren’t an issue in strip-till and no-till fields because the soil is more firm. However, take action to fix tracks and 2" to 4" ruts, as the benefits far outweigh the risks.

No-till: Ruts usually aren’t too big of an issue in no-till fields because the soil is firm. However, don’t let a 4" rut or pinch rows fool you. Both can be hard on ear counts the following year.

If you’re dealing with wheel tracks in a no-till soybean scenario, there’s a good chance freezing and thawing paired with a vertical-harrow tool will do the trick. If fixed, you can return to no-till the following year.

With 4" to 6" ruts in cornstalks followed by soybeans, plan to shallow chisel the field to achieve full width shatter and then level with a vertical harrow. Once fixed, the field can return to no-till the following year.

In soybean stubble with ruts in small portions of the field, patch it with tillage and continue to no-till the rest of the field. If pinch rows or ruts are present across the entire field, use vertical tillage to address the problem and then return to no-till in future years.

“Ultimately, in order to avoid long-term yield effects, fields might have to come out of no-till or strip-till to fix ruts and compaction issues,” Ferrie says. “Ruts often show up in aerial imagery for two to three years. As soon as the problems are fixed, the field can return to no-till or strip-till.”

Anhydrous Ammonia Considerations In Dry Soils
Without some rainfall in areas suffering from drought, Ferrie is concerned anhydrous ammonia (NH3) applications will be challenging to seal. In some cases, when growers are smelling ammonia a day after application, that means the product is making its way to the soil surface and being lost.

Ferrie says you should be able to stand out in the field as NH3 is applied and not see it or smell it. That was not the case this past week in some central Illinois fields.

“I saw one field that had cracks big enough that you could put your hand down in them. The anhydrous bar was not only smoking around the knives, gas was coming out through the cracks in the soil between the knives,” Ferrie reports.

Anhydrous ammonia will move in soils until it finds enough soil moisture to convert from ammonia to ammonium. In dry soils, an inhibitor will be ineffective because it is designed to stop nitrification and not volatility.

“That’s why growers wonder why they can smell ammonia leaking out of a dry soil when they use N-Serve. It doesn’t work like that. You’re not protected against volatility,” Ferrie explains.

Instead, N-Serve acts to slow down the bacteria that converts ammonium to nitrate, keeping nitrogen in the ammonium form longer.

European Corn Borer Populations Rebuild
Ferrie says he had a number of farmers call in this fall regarding certain hybrids that were dropping ears. Most of the fields contained non-GMO hybrids, and in many cases the problem was caused by European corn borer and the hybrid was not at fault.

Ferrie advises farmers to inspect ears from the fields in question, if still available, for telltale signs of the pest. “Look at that butt of the ear in the shank,” he says. “Corn borer will leave a tunnel in the shank, or through the center of the cob, coming out the butt of the ear into the shank.”

Ferrie says he is seeing populations of the pest starting to rebuild in areas where non-GMO corn has been grown multiple years.

“Corn borers have been gone so long, most growers have forgotten about them, or they’re too young to have farmed when corn borer was a threat,” he explains. “Inspecting some ears now will give you insights on what you’re dealing with and a leg up on what you need to plan for next season.”

Learn more of Ken Ferrie’s recommendations on how to address tillage, NH3 and pest control in his latest episode of Boots In The Field:

Your next read: Unpacking the Disappointment: 5 Reasons Some Iowa Growers Had Ho-Hum Corn Yields