USDA Reports

USDA Expands Farmer Surveys to Improve Data Accuracy, Relocates Staff Closer to the Farm

Fri, 24 Apr 2026 13:40:47 GMT

USDA is moving to adjust how it collects and communicates agricultural data following an April 22 meeting with stakeholders in Kansas City, pairing expanded farmer surveys, increased transparency efforts and new performance tracking with a sweeping reorganization that will relocate staff closer to agricultural regions.

Leading into the USDA Data Users meeting on Wednesday, Farm Journal spoke one-on-one with USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden. While he wasn’t in the room physically on Wednesday, instead joining virtually, Vaden made clear he intended to play an active role in the discussion.

“I’m excited about that because one of the things that both the Secretary and I are committed to is better transparency, especially when it comes to our data,” he says. “USDA data needs to be the gold standard, and we need to be brave enough to take feedback. Everyone can always improve.”

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That theme, being “brave enough” to hear criticism, carried through both the meeting and the department’s broader outreach effort. As USDA, ERS, NASS, World Board and others participated in a panel on stage followed by Q&A, they had unified message that they’ll do whatever it takes to rebuild farmer trust and restore confidence in USDA data and reporting.

Earlier this month, USDA closed a public comment period inviting anyone who interacts with its data to weigh in on how it could improve.

“What we have done is we had a public comment process which just closed on the 9th of April, where we asked everyone who has any interaction with our data, tell us what you think,” Vaden says. “Are there ways that we can collect data better? Are there ways that we can report data better?”

Data Users Meeting Highlights Concerns Over Participation, Accuracy

At the Kansas City meeting, one issue stood out: falling farmer participation in USDA surveys and what that means for the reliability of widely watched reports.

Officials from USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) acknowledged that response rates have dropped to historically low levels. The March 31 planting intentions report drew responses from just 37.6% of surveyed producers, down from 44.3% a year earlier and the lowest on record. But they also talked about plans to improve those numbers.

That decline has raised concerns across the agriculture sector, particularly after USDA made sizable revisions to 2025 corn acreage estimates earlier this year. Because markets rely heavily on USDA data for price discovery, risk management, and policy decisions, even small questions about accuracy can ripple widely.

In response, NASS plans to significantly expand its farmer survey efforts in an attempt to rebuild participation and improve data quality.

USDA Plans Expanded Farmer Surveys to Improve Data Reliability

According to NASS Administrator Joseph Parsons, the agency intends to increase the number of farmers surveyed for major acreage reports, pending approval from the Office of Management and Budget.

The most immediate change would come with the June 30 acreage report, where USDA plans to boost its sample size by roughly 35%. Additional increases of about 10% are planned for the September, December, and March reports.

The goal is straightforward: generate more usable responses and improve the precision of crop estimates.

Beyond simply expanding outreach, USDA is also working to improve how it communicates uncertainty in its reports. Parsons says the agency will incorporate more “plain language” explanations to help producers, traders, and policymakers better understand confidence levels and potential variability in the data.

Reorganization Announcement Follows Immediately After Data Meeting

Just one day after the Data Users meeting, USDA underscored how quickly change is unfolding across the department by announcing a sweeping reorganization that will relocate major divisions, including positions tied to data and research, out of Washington, D.C.

The agency announced the broad reorganization and relocation of staff, saying it will modernize operations. But some stakeholders warn the changes could strain staffing levels and institutional expertise at data-focused offices, including NASS and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, following recent departures tied to the Deferred Resignation Program.

According to USDA’s Thursday announcement, the overhaul will shift key components of the Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) and the Research, Education, and Economics (REE) mission area closer to agricultural regions, in what officials describe as an effort to modernize operations and better align staff with the producers they serve.

At the center of the changes is the creation of a new National Food Safety Center in Urbandale, Iowa, which will serve as the primary hub for FSIS administrative, technical, and support functions. The facility is expected to house roughly 200 employees and become the agency’s largest office. A separate science center in Athens, Georgia, will expand capabilities in microbiology, chemistry, and epidemiology.

USDA officials emphasize that frontline inspection operations, which account for roughly 85% of FSIS personnel, will not be affected, and no reductions in force are planned. Additional staff tied to international operations will be located in Fort Collins, Colorado, while about 100 positions will remain in Washington for policy and congressional work.

The restructuring also reaches into the department’s data and research arms.

The Economic Research Service (ERS) and National Institute of Food and Agriculture (NIFA) will relocate additional positions to Kansas City, reinforcing a move first initiated during the previous Trump administration. NASS will also shift certain Washington-based roles to St. Louis and other regional offices while maintaining its nationwide data collection network.

Meanwhile, the Agricultural Research Service (ARS) will begin decommissioning the Beltsville Agricultural Research Center in Maryland, redistributing research programs across the country to better align with regional agricultural needs and modernize aging infrastructure.

USDA leaders frame the reorganization as a move to reduce duplication, improve accountability, and strengthen connections between federal agencies and the agricultural sector. Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden says the changes are intended to better align staff with mission needs, while agency leaders emphasize improved workforce support, training, and recruitment.

Greater Transparency and Accountability Ahead

The timing of the reorganization, coming immediately after a meeting focused on data credibility, highlights the broader scope of USDA’s efforts to rebuild trust and improve performance.

Alongside expanded surveys and structural changes, the department is also taking steps to more directly evaluate its forecasting accuracy.

Vaden says USDA is planning to launch an annual report, potentially beginning this fall, that will compare its crop forecasts against final production totals after the marketing year concludes. The effort is designed to give stakeholders a clearer picture of how USDA estimates stack up over time.

“This is not something that will be solved in a day,” Vaden says. “But we have to be brave enough to take feedback and issue public reports on how we did and how our numbers ended up stacking up against the final facts, so that we can begin the process of ensuring that there is continuous improvement with regard to the quality of USDA data.”

Behind the scenes, that process is already underway. Vaden says he is receiving internal briefings on the feedback submitted through the Request for Information and is meeting directly with trade groups and farmer representatives.

“I, as a matter of fact, am receiving a briefing later today on what the comments that came in as part of our request for information show, and how we can have further areas of improvement,” he says. “And I am meeting with some of the commenters… to hear from them personally about how we could do our job better.”

Is USDA’s Reorganization Impacting Data Accuracy?

Even before the formal announcement, questions had already been circulating about whether internal restructuring could affect USDA reporting.

Vaden dismisses that idea.

“Well, first, with regard to your question about whether there’s a link to the data, the answer is no,” he says. “Our WASDE professionals are professionals in the Office of the Chief Economist. They are unbothered by the reorganization. It doesn’t affect their day-to-day work at all.”

In practical terms, he suggests the impact on those teams is minimal.

“The only thing they’re going to have to do is leave the South Building and come over here to the Witten Building for lockup,” he says.

Still, the scale of the changes is significant. USDA is looking to shrink its Washington footprint, where the South Building is more than 70% vacant and carries over $1.6 billion in deferred maintenance, while relocating employees closer to rural communities.

“No private sector company in the world would pay for real estate that is more than 70% vacant,” Vaden says.

Q&A Underscores Concerns Over Trust, Participation, and Transparency

The question-and-answer session at the close of the Data Users meeting made clear that concerns about USDA data go beyond methodology.

Several attendees pressed officials on how the agency plans to reverse declining farmer response rates, with some noting that lower participation could introduce bias into key reports. NASS officials acknowledged the concern and pointed to expanded survey efforts as a primary solution, while also emphasizing outreach to better explain why farmer participation matters.

Officials say they are exploring additional ways to engage producers directly, including clearer communication about how survey data is used and stronger assurances around confidentiality.

Questions also focused on large revisions to recent crop estimates, with market participants asking whether those changes signal deeper issues in data collection or modeling. USDA representatives stressed that revisions are a normal part of the statistical process but acknowledged the need to better communicate why those adjustments occur and what they mean for users.

Another recurring theme was transparency, specifically, how USDA conveys uncertainty in its reports. Attendees urged the department to provide clearer indicators of confidence levels and potential variability, particularly during periods of market volatility. NASS officials pointed to planned “plain language” additions as one step toward making reports more accessible and easier to interpret.

Some participants also raised concerns about whether internal changes, including the department’s broader reorganization, could disrupt data quality or continuity. USDA officials reiterated that statistical staff and processes remain intact and said efforts are being made to ensure consistency regardless of organizational shifts.

Finally, several questions centered on accountability, and how USDA evaluates its own performance over time. Officials confirmed that the department is working toward publishing a regular assessment comparing forecasts to final outcomes, a move widely viewed by attendees as a meaningful step toward rebuilding confidence.

Corn Futures Drop Following Surprise Yield Increase in January USDA Report

Mon, 12 Jan 2026 18:44:22 GMT

The January USDA reports are the biggest of the season with final crop production for the previous year, world supply and demand estimates, quarterly stocks and winter wheat seedings for the new season. Average trade guesses ahead of Monday indicated only minor adjustments to the annual reports that are historically a huge market mover.

This year, all eyes were on final yields and production, specifically corn, and USDA provided several bearish surprises.

Corn Crop Still Big

USDA didn’t back off its big corn crop forecast, putting its final 2025 production at 17 billion bushels. The agency raised its final yield estimates from November to 186.5 bu. per acre. ( Ahead of the report , the trade was expecting a 2 bu. cut to 184 bu. per acre.) The gains also include raising acreage 4.5 million above the June survey, which analysts say is unprecedented. The final harvest area is now estimated at 91.25 million acres.

In January 2026, USDA released record corn yield and production numbers.

(USDA/Lindsey Pound)

The increase in production also lifted U.S. ending stocks to 2.227 billion bushels. That’s up from 2.029 in December 2025 and well above traded estimates. Corn futures markets sank double digits immediately following the release.

“That’s just a massive crop, 186.5 for yield, says Matt Bennett with AgMarket.Net. “I take issue with the higher corn yield considering the heavy disease pressure in parts of the Corn Belt.
A lot of people, of course, with recency bias and all the issues felt like [USDA] could take this yield down a fair amount. I would say it was definitely a shock for most people.”

USDA raised total corn usage to a record 16.4 billion bushels.

“Exports have been nothing short of incredible so far. As far as sales are concerned, we’ve actually had good shipments, but USDA left exports at 3.2, and then actually took up feed and residual usage,” Bennett adds.

Soybean Numbers Remain Steady

On the soybean side of the aisle, USDA left yields basically unchanged from the November report at an estimated 53 bu. per acre. However it did raise overall production to 4.262 billion bushels.

USDA left soybean yields basically unchanged from the November report but did raise overall production.

(USDA/Lindsey Pound)

Ahead of the report , the average trade guess lowered yield by 0.3 bu. to 52.7 bu. per acre. Jerry Gulke thought President Trump’s goal of keeping food prices low and the fact USDA is providing Farmer Bridge Assistance might dictate a bearish slant.

Ending stocks are beginning the new year at 350 million bushels. That’s higher than December’s estimates based on smaller expected exports. The increase in production and lack of exports drove futures lower following the report.

“Essentially there were minor changes [for soybeans] other than exports, which went down 60 million bushels,” Bennett explains. “You’ve got to assume it’s because USDA took that Brazil crop up to 178. It’s something I think they lagged in doing. However, a 350 million bushels soybean carryout is still tight and with exports sales running 30% behind last year, it may be a gift for now.”

Winter Wheat Seedings Down

Farmers found a reason to plant more winter wheat than previously expected at 32.99 million acres. That’s well below last year’s crop planted on 33.15 million acres but larger than the trade had anticipated. Hard red winter wheat was nearly steady with last year at 23.50 million acres. Soft red winter wheat also near a year ago at 6.14 million acres while white winter wheat plantings fell to 3.36 million acres.

Click here to hear how Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist with StoneX, breaks down the price action following the report.

Why Corn Prices Aren’t Responding to Record Export Demand

Tue, 16 Dec 2025 19:45:20 GMT

From record-setting corn exports to unresolved trade negotiations and a new round of federal support payments , grain markets are sending mixed signals as producers begin to think beyond the current marketing year. While headlines point to strong demand and government assistance, underlying supply dynamics and policy uncertainty continue to weigh heavily on market confidence.

WASDE Offers Encouragement, But Supply Still Looms Large

The December WASDE report is typically considered a low-impact release, but this year’s update, released last week, caught the market’s attention with another sizable increase in corn export projections. That adjustment immediately invited comparisons to last year, when a similar move marked the beginning of a multi-month rally.

“We’re watching the price reaction off that WASDE because the similarities to last year are pretty incredible,” says Garrett Toay, principal with AgTraderTalk. “Last December, we had a 150-million-bushel increase in exports — the largest on record. We have 125 million this week. This week last year is when the rally in corn started and lasted through February.”

Despite that demand-side improvement, Toay says the broader supply picture remains difficult to ignore. Ending stocks are still large by historical standards, and upcoming USDA adjustments could reshuffle the balance sheet without meaningfully tightening supplies.

“We still have a fairly large carryout,” Toay says. “If we do get a yield reduction in January when they come in with final production numbers, I still feel there’s enough corn out there to keep the carryout relatively burdensome.”

U.S. ending stocks projections released in the December WASDE report.

(Lori Hayes/USDA Data )

He also notes that much of the demand strength is already embedded in USDA assumptions, leaving limited room for additional bullish surprises.

“We have a 600-million-bushel year-over-year increase in feed residuals,” Toay explains. “There’s a lot of demand that’s kind of baked into these S&Ds that could possibly be whittled away if they do cut supply.”

Record Exports Highlight Demand, But Prices Still Lag

Even as exports surge, corn futures have struggled to reflect that strength, raising questions about where the disconnect lies. For corn growers, the issue isn’t whether demand exists, but whether it’s translating into meaningful price support.

“We’re talking about record corn exports — 3.2 billion bushels — and we’re about 70% above where we were a year ago,” says Krista Swanson, chief economist for the National Corn Growers Association. “We’re off to a great start, but while this is a record in terms of volume, it’s not a record in terms of value.”

That distinction matters, she says, particularly in an environment of high input costs and tight margins.

“One of the problems is how does that value get back to the farmer?” Swanson says.

Looking ahead, acreage decisions will play a major role in determining whether supply growth continues to overwhelm demand gains. Swanson points to the soybean-to-corn price ratio as an early indicator of producer behavior.

“The soybean-to-corn price ratio is coming in really close to 2.5,” she says. “Above that favors soybeans, below that favors corn.”

After a historically large corn acreage year, some pullback appears likely — but even modest reductions would still leave the U.S. with substantial production capacity.

“Coming off such a high corn acreage year, we’re likely to see acres come down a little bit,” Swanson says. “But even if we came down to 95 million acres, that’s still a high corn acre year.”

That reality brings the focus back to demand expansion, both domestically and abroad.

“So, where does the demand come from?” she says. “We’ve seen good progress in trade agreements. Southeast Asia — Vietnam, Thailand — those markets have good potential. Diversified exports are one of corn’s strengths.”

Policy also remains central to that discussion, particularly ethanol blending.

“We are pushing for E15 to get done before Jan. 30,” Swanson says. “That’s the next funding deadline when Congress either has to act or go into shutdown.”

China Trade Uncertainty Weighs On Soybeans

Trade disruptions are a major reason those payments exist in the first place, and nowhere is that uncertainty more apparent than in ongoing negotiations with China. Conflicting messages around timing, volume commitments and enforcement have kept markets on edge.

“It feels like there’s a lost-in-translation aspect of these negotiations,” Toay says. “The White House wants China to buy a lot of soybeans. China wants to end the trade war and appease the White House, but we still don’t have a trade deal signed.”

While China has made purchases, Toay says they don’t reflect a return-to-normal commercial trade flows.

“The purchases we’ve seen have largely been from Cofco and Sinograin,” he says. “Those are government entities, and the beans are going into state reserves.”

Toay says while government entities might be buying, private crushers remain cautious about the current status of trade relations between the two countries.

“I don’t think you see private crushers in China buying U.S. soybeans until we have a trade deal,” Toay says. “There’s just too much risk.”

But he points out that uncertainty has also influenced speculative positioning.

“The funds started getting long when it looked like we were going to have a deal,” he says. “Now, with uncertainty about timing, they’re paring that back. If we get everything signed, sealed and delivered, the funds will know we’re good to go.”

Could Corn Enter The China Conversation?

While soybeans, sorghum and cotton dominate trade discussions, corn could still play a role if negotiations advance.

“I definitely think there’s a possibility,” Swanson says. “China is a big corn producer, but they’re also a big importer.”

She notes questions surrounding China’s domestic supply estimates.

“I’ve heard some rumblings that their corn production maybe wasn’t as big as the numbers indicate,” Swanson says. “If we have a deal, anything’s on the table, even though we haven’t seen that yet.”

Federal Payments Factor Into 2025 Outlook

Beyond market fundamentals, government support is shaping income projections for the coming year. USDA’s recently announced farmer bridge payments are designed to offset trade disruptions and weak prices, and early estimates suggest they could be meaningful for row-crop producers.

“We’re coming in with an estimate of about $45 for corn and $25 for soybeans,” says Gary Schnitkey, agricultural economist with the University of Illinois. “The corn payment is a little higher than the ECAP payment, and the soybean payment is a little lower.”

Schnitkey’s estimates are based on calculations by Nick Paulson of University of Illinois. He estimates the USDA per acre bridge payment will be:

Corn: $46
Soybeans: $25
Wheat: $39
Cotton: $115
Oats: $92
Rice: $134
Peanuts: $64
Sorghum: $48
Barley: $21

While final rules have not yet been released, Schnitkey says the estimates are broadly consistent with other analyses across the industry. When you combine that with anticipated ARC and PLC payments, the amount of government payments that will go on this year’s balance sheets will be significant, but still makes margins tight.

“As we’re looking at incomes for 2025, we’re looking at almost $100 of federal payments [for corn and soybeans],” Schnitkey says. “That gives us a positive income projection for 2025.”

However, those payments largely arrive after expenses have already been incurred.

“That’s also putting about $100 of receivables on the balance sheet,” he says. “These payments are significant, but we will have cash flow issues for a while.”

As Markets Search for Clarity, USDA Says NASS Will Issue Key Reports in November Despite Government Shutdown

Fri, 31 Oct 2025 17:37:32 GMT

The federal government’s continued shutdown is no longer just a Washington standoff — it’s becoming a real-world problem for farmers and ranchers. As the days drag on without resolution, three Kansas State University economists warn that even with FSA offices back open, the absence of key USDA reports is rippling through every corner of the ag economy, from commodity markets to cattle prices and farm-level business planning.

But on Friday, USDA-NASS issued a bit of surprise. The agency says NASS will release key data in November for the following reports , some with a delay:

Milk Production – Nov. 10 (previously scheduled for Oct. 22)
Crop Production – Nov. 14 (previously scheduled for Nov. 10)
Cattle on Feed – Nov. 21 (as previously scheduled)
Milk Production – Nov. 21 (as previously scheduled)
The World Agricultural Outlook Board will release the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) in conjunction with the Crop Production report on Nov. 14.

With much of the agency still furloughed, there are questions regarding how NASS will have enough staff to provide those key reports. The release didn’t offer any additional details, only saying those key reports will be released in November.

However, there are a few key reports still missing, which includes daily flash sales reports and weekly export sales information.

A Data Blackout Hits the Heart of Agriculture

Until now, the shutdown has silenced the regular flow of government data that producers, analysts and traders depend on — reports like the weekly export sales, crop progress and Cattle on Feed updates, as well as the highly anticipated World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE).

“The fact that the government is still shut down means we aren’t getting those weekly export sales reports,” says Allen Featherstone, head of the department of agricultural economics at Kansas State University. “That’s a real problem because we rely on that information to confirm what’s actually happening in the market.”

Is China Actually Buying? The Absence of Flash Sales Reports Creates Confusion

With the U.S. and China negotiating renewed agricultural trade commitments , there are fresh promises of more purchases in the weeks and months ahead. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Thursday that China has agreed to buy 12 million metric tons of American soybeans during the current season through January and has committed to buying 25 million tons annually for the next three years as part of a larger trade agreement with Beijing.

Featherstone notes that while China claims it is buying U.S. soybeans, the lack of USDA verification makes it difficult to gauge the truth and confirm those buys are happening. And in USDA’s announcement Friday, there was no indication the flash sales and weekly export sales will resume.

“Earlier this week, China reportedly purchased three vessels, about 180,000 metric tons, but not having official data from USDA is a major issue,” he says. “Tracking purchases becomes challenging when the normal reporting mechanisms are down.”

Despite some optimism around U.S.-China trade progress, Featherstone says markets are hesitant to believe much until concrete export numbers appear.

“If China doesn’t come through, that will lead to more negativity in prices given the size of this year’s crop,” he says. “China imports roughly 60% of the world’s soybeans, and if they don’t buy from us, that’s a big problem.”

Featherstone emphasizes the importance of diversifying U.S. export markets.

“We need to broaden who’s buying our products,” he says. “Relying too heavily on one trade partner makes us vulnerable, and this shutdown is a reminder of just how fragile that system can be when government data and diplomacy both stall.”

No November WASDE?

While some private companies attempt to replicate USDA’s data models, those efforts often fall short, according to Terry Griffin, K-State’s precision agriculture economist.

“We’re not likely to have a November WASDE because all the footwork that leads up to it hasn’t happened,” Griffin explains. “Even if the shutdown ends this weekend, that report won’t be ready. There’s just too much groundwork that hasn’t been done.”

He says the lack of USDA reports has forced brokers, trading firms and agribusinesses to depend on private estimates that vary widely.

“They’ve become so reliant on USDA’s National Ag Statistics Service that they’re struggling right now to do their business,” Griffin says. “It’s throwing off everything from national models to local crop forecasts.”

Griffin also points out the shutdown’s impact reaches beyond the boardroom and into academia.

“We have a graduate student working on a peanut production forecasting model, and she’s using crop progress data that come out every week,” he explains. “Without those reports, she can’t validate her model. The data blackout affects research, innovation and business planning all at once.”

Cattle Producers Face Growing Uncertainty

The shutdown’s effects extend deeply into the livestock sector, where missing data is already creating confusion and volatility. Glynn Tonsor, K-State livestock economist, says the absence of reports like Cattle on Feed and slaughter estimates makes it difficult to assess market fundamentals.

“The Cattle on Feed Report is something we normally get monthly. Historically, it has a steer and heifer breakdown, which would be quite useful at the moment as the most recent insight about whether we’re expanding the herd or not, and we’re not going to have that detail,” says Tonsor. “There’s also been a lot of discussion about beef prices and some accusations or desires to make those lower, and we’re actually already behind on what the beef price is in this country. So there’s lots of examples that we could give you that are not just livestock and not just crops. And the longer the shutdown goes, the longer those data gaps exist and build, the harder it is for anybody, whether it’s an academic like us up here or private sector or individual producers, to adjust.”

He notes while we did see life in the cattle market this week, if you look at what happened since President Trump made comments about cattle prices being too high , the cattle market has pulled back significantly in recent weeks.

“Roughly $200 per head has come off the value of cattle in just 10 days,” Tonsor says. “If you’re a cow-calf producer, you’re still positioned for 2025 to be a good year, but uncertainty is the biggest risk right now. Anything that elevates uncertainty delays long-term investments, whether that’s expanding the herd or making capital improvements.”

That uncertainty isn’t only about market data. Tonsor says the political noise out of Washington, including renewed calls for mandatory Country of Origin Labeling (MCOOL), adds to the confusion.

“Taste remains the main driver of beef demand,” he says. “Origin and traceability rank much lower for the average consumer. There are niche opportunities, but for most people, it’s not what decides their protein purchases.”

A Cloud of Uncertainty Over Rural America

For now, K-State’s economists agree on one thing: The shutdown’s ripple effects are growing with every passing day. From grain markets to livestock pricing, from academic research to on-farm decision-making, the absence of reliable government data leaves agriculture flying blind.

“The longer the shutdown goes, the more those data gaps build,” Tonsor says. “And the harder it becomes for anyone, whether you’re an academic, a trader or a producer, to adjust.”

Political Blame Game in Washington

The political blame game continues in Washington, and it’s creating a stalemate. The Democrats are blaming the GOP, and the GOP is blaming the Democrats, both claiming the other party doesn’t care about every day Americans, otherwise the other side would make concessions to reopen the government.

House Committee on Agriculture Chairman Glenn “GT” Thompson, R-Pa., released a statement on Friday, the day before SNAP benefits are set to expire, saying the prolonged government shutdown is caused by Democrats in the U.S. Senate.

“Because Senate Democrats insist on keeping the federal government shut down, more than 40 million Americans — including children, seniors, veterans and military families — will not receive their November SNAP benefits beginning this weekend. The No. 2 House Democrat acknowledged that suffering families are their ‘leverage’, confirming that this is a political choice.”

U.S. Representative Angie Craig, D-Minn., and Ranking Member of the House Ag Committee, says the onus falls on President Donald Trump and Congressional Republicans.

“Secretary Rollins said one honest thing today: The government is failing the American people. Republicans control the House, Senate and White House. The Trump administration has the legal authority and funds necessary to get November SNAP benefits out the door. They are illegally withholding food from 42 million Americans, and it is shameful,” said Craig in a statement on Friday.

USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden says the fallout extends well beyond the Capitol. From families losing access to food assistance to disruptions in beef and soybean markets, Vaden warns that the consequences are real and immediate.

In an interview on “AgriTalk,” Vaden accuses congressional Democrats of blocking a “clean continuing resolution” and says the resulting gridlock could harm both consumers and producers.

“If they don’t vote to reopen the government, then 40-plus million SNAP recipients see no extra money added to their benefit cards this weekend,” Vaden says. “We shouldn’t be playing politics with people’s lives and people’s dinner tables.”

SNAP and WIC Funding Hang in the Balance

Vaden says USDA manages to keep the Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) program funded for now by reallocating money from other programs. But the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), which costs about $9 billion each month, has no such cushion.

“When it comes to SNAP, we’re talking about more than 9 billion — with a B — dollars,” he explains. “We don’t have that kind of money lying around here at USDA. The contingency fund people talk about is nowhere close to that amount, and it’s meant for natural disasters. We surely don’t want to be spending that and then hoping there’s no hurricane while Congress continues this shutdown.”

Without congressional action, Vaden says 40 million Americans might not receive their grocery benefits at the start of November — a moment when both food demand and household strain typically rise ahead of the holidays.

“That’s 9 billion dollars of groceries,” Vaden emphasizes. “And those groceries include beef, pork and poultry. These are markets that are sensitive to even a 1% shift in demand.”

“A Lump of Coal” for the Holidays

As the shutdown looms, Vaden says the timing is especially painful.

“We’re heading into the holiday season; it’s supposed to be a time of good cheer,” he says. “Unfortunately, Senator Schumer and Representative Jeffries are giving everybody a lump of coal. This needs to stop. We shouldn’t be playing games with people’s lives.”

He adds that USDA can move quickly once Congress passes appropriations.

“You want people to receive their SNAP benefits? It’s real simple,” Vaden says. “Give us our normal appropriations, and USDA will do what it does so well: get those benefits onto people’s cards quickly and efficiently.”

Farm Journal Survey Signals 2025 National Corn Yield Could Fall Short of 2024

Fri, 17 Oct 2025 17:58:55 GMT

The government shutdown and resulting absence of data from USDA has left a void in the volatile grain and oilseed markets. To fill the gap, Farm Journal conducted a survey to get an update on yields and harvest progress as well as other important topics on producers’ minds.

Based on more than 1,100 qualified responses from across the U.S., the biggest takeaway is that corn yields are estimated to be down compared with USDA’s September estimates in six of the seven Pro Farmer Crop Tour states. Due to disease pressure and dryness, the 2025 national corn yield could be lower than the 2024 average of 179.3 bu.

(Farm Journal)

As of mid-October, yields are steady or lower for 74% of the respondents across the Crop Tour states, a far cry from higher production estimates for each state in USDA’s September Crop Production Report, says Lane Akre, Pro Farmer economist. Traders and analysts saw production falling from the September USDA estimate of 186.7 bu. per acre to 185 bu., according to a pre-report poll from Bloomberg in early October. If production does shrink, as the Farm Journal survey indicates, the national average yield could fall to 178.5 bu. per acre.

When compared to 2024, the Farm Journal survey shows the biggest yield decline in the “I” states:

Illinois at 7%
Indiana at 4.6%
Iowa at 3.2%

On the other hand, Minnesota at 3.8% and South Dakota at 3.3% are seeing yields come in higher than last season.

Soybean Harvest Progress Well Ahead of Corn
Corn harvest progress is on par with other private estimates at 43% on Oct. 15.

(Farm Journal)

Soybean harvest is well ahead at 79% due to dry conditions.

“While we aren’t getting the weekly crop progress reports, they are still calling and the analyst average this week was 60%,” Akre says.

(Farm Journal)

Storage Issues Especially Challenging in Northern Plains
Just over a third of all respondents in Farm Journal’s survey noted storage concerns as many producers are opting to store grain rather than take it to market. Storage issues are more prevalent in the northern Plains, with 56% of producers in South Dakota saying they are facing issues.

(Farm Journal)

With China absent from the export market and soybean yields strong, basis levels in the northwestern Corn Belt have widened to levels not seen since the 2018 trade war. Storage piles are already stacking up at local elevators.

“We’re just a week into harvest and already seeing more piles than we have seen in years past,” says Kevin Deinert, a farmer from Mount Vernon, S.D. “If you look at total production and total storage capacity, we’re going to exceed our storage capacity by a considerable amount.”

Typically, farmers in the Dakotas sell soybeans right off the combine, but this year many are holding onto their crop, hoping for better prices down the road.

“The basis on corn is not great either, but it’s exceptionally bad on soybeans,” explains Todd Hanten of Goodwin, S.D. “I’m going to store it all and try to capture some better basis in the future.”

David Struck, a farmer from Wolsey, S.D., is also storing beans with the hope come January and February, he’ll be able to move them and get a better price.

Based on CoBank estimates, the nation will be short 73 million bushels of upright grain storage this year, a dramatic shift from last year’s surplus.

“When you pull out to the 12 major corn-producing states, and that includes soybeans, we’re going to be short by about 1.4 billion bushels of storage capacity,” says Tanner Ehmke, CoBank’s grain and oilseeds economist. “Last year, we were long by about 360 million bushels.”

Farmers Still Support Tariffs
Despite the ongoing trade war with China, which has weighed heavily on row-crop prices, more than 60% of respondents say they support tariffs. Many are hopeful that aggressive trade policies will pay dividends once it is all said and done.

(Farm Journal)

Negative Crop Margins: Sec. Rollins Explains Three Thresholds For Farmer Payments

Fri, 19 Sep 2025 22:24:37 GMT

In a special AgriTalk interview with Chip Flory, Sec. Brooke Rollins of USDA acknowledges harvest is underway for many row crop farmers and says she and her team are aware of the financial hardships faced by many agricultural sectors as they look to find profitable markets for their crops.

“I’ve had conversations with lawmakers on the hill, counterparts in the white house and across the cabinet. We are putting together option from A to Z, so when the President decides it’s time, we can step in,” she says.

Pointing to $13 billion in ECAP scheduled to be deployed over the next few months, Rollins says any future payments will have to “make sure”:

“We are being good stewards of taxpayer dollars.”
“Not distorting the markets”
“We’ve got the backs of these great farmers.”

Market-supplied opportunities

Rollins says trade deals are a focus for the Trump administration, adding soybeans are “very much top of my mind right now.” Referring to the announcement from Friday morning of $10 billion in ag products over the next four years to Taiwan, Rollins says this is a ‘game-changer’ of a deal and includes soybeans, corn, wheat and beef. She says the trade opportunities will not be fully developed and explored overnight, but “we’re making good progress.”

Specific to China, which had been the major customer of U.S. corn, soybeans, cotton, sorghum, beef and tree nuts, Rollins says while the current talks may have focused on Tik Tok, she has had conversations with colleagues who were in those rooms and who understand what is at stake for U.S. ag producers, notably soybean farmers.

“I have full faith in the President, and he’s very aware of the necessity of our top buyers in our row crops are continuing to buy, especially as we move into harvest. And there should be good news very soon,” she says. “We have the world’s top deal maker and negotiator in our President, that everything he does at every turn and every corner he’s hyperfocused on getting the deal. We are in a different scenario than we were. China began investing in Brazil. China began moving away from US supplies. Times are different today. What’s important today is making sure our guys get their crops out into the market and out into the world market.”

If not China, then where?

As she just returned from the trade mission and Presidential visit to the United Kingdom, Rollins uses the recent trade deal with the United Kingdom as a template for future deals. She says she and her team are engaged at a deeper level than ever before to bring together buyers for U.S. ag products.

“Take ethanol and pork in the UK, we brought buyers and sellers together, created levels of expectations, and pushed to get deals done,” she says. “Our second largest importer of U.S. ethanol is the UK, and by next year, they’ll be buying all of their ethanol from America.”

She says in the coming weeks, on a planned trip to Japan, a focus will be to do the same for rice. Mexico and Vietnam are other trade partners they’ll engage with soon.

Flory’s full interview with Sec. Rollins is available below. Please note there are some issues with audio quality.

USDA Set To Downsize With Reorganization Plan

Thu, 24 Jul 2025 18:10:22 GMT

Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins announced July 24 that the USDA would reorganize, representing consolidation and elimination of programs and personnel.

Dubbed the “ USDA Department Reorganization Plan ,” the move will include moving more than half of the agency’s Washington, D.C.-area staff to five different hubs across the country, “refocusing its core operations” on USDA’s founding mission, and reducing overall staff. According to the announcement and plan document, the move is intended to “improve the internal management” of the department.

“Here at USDA, we are refocusing our core operations to better align with President Lincoln’s founding mission of supporting American farming, ranching, and forestry, as well as serving American taxpayers,” Rollins wrote Thursday morning on social platform X.

Here @USDA, we are refocusing our core operations to better align with President Lincoln’s founding mission of supporting American farming, ranching, and forestry, as well as serving American taxpayers.
— Secretary Brooke Rollins (@SecRollins) July 24, 2025

The reorganization is built around what the agency calls four pillars:

Ensure the size of USDA’s workforce aligns with financial resources and priorities.
Bring USDA closer to its customers by relocated resources outside of the national capital region.
Eliminate management layers and bureaucracy.
Consolidate support functions.

USDA Workforce Costs and Location Changes

Highlighting the high cost of living in the nation’s capital — where average monthly rent in January 2024 was $2,475, according to real estate and rental search site RedFin — USDA’s reorg seeks to move roughly 2,600 of its current 4,600 D.C.-area personnel to five “hub locations” across the country.

According to the plan document, these locations were selected considering cost of living and “existing concentrations of USDA employees.”

These hubs (and their January 2024 average rent levels) are:

Salt Lake City, Utah ($1,627)
Fort Collins, Colo. ($1,607)
Raleigh, N.C. ($1,371)
Indianapolis, Ind. ($1,265)
Kansas City, Mo. ($1,140)

“In addition to these five hubs, USDA will maintain two additional core administrative support locations: Albuquerque, New Mexico and Minneapolis, Minnesota,” the reorg plan reads. “USDA will continue to maintain critical service centers and laboratories including agency service centers in St. Louis, Missouri; Lincoln, Nebraska; and Missoula, Montana.”

The department says it aims to have no more than 2,000 staff members remain in the National Capital Region.

“The details are still to be determined,” adds Callie Eideberg, a Principal with The Vogel Group. “It will be helpful when we know the pace and cadence of these changes, as that will determine how smooth or chaotic this move will be.”

She agrees that the reorganization could benefit those employees looking for a lower cost of living, but the distance between hubs will make for its own workforce management issues.

“Different administrations have tried, in smaller ways, to move the federal workforce to other regions and they’ve been met with these management obstacles,” adds Eideberg. “Stakeholders, as well, will now need to travel to five different locations around the country to have their conversations with USDA instead of ‘one stop shopping’ in Washington.”

The location changes are not limited to personnel only, however. The physical buildings USDA will be occupying in the capital area will also change. The reorg plan cited costs associated with maintaining and repairing some of the overly large buildings as part of the motivation.

Announced building changes include:

The South Building and Braddock Place facilities will be vacated.
Beltsville Agricultural Research Center will be vacated over several years “to avoid disruption of critical USDA research activities.”
George Washington Carver Center, currently being used for area USDA personnel during the reorg, will be sold or transferred eventually.

The department said the Whitten Building will remain the USDA headquarters, and both the Yates Building and the National Agricultural Library “will be retained for use.”

Consolidation and Elimination

Though the reorg document stressed that “USDA is not conducting a large-scale workforce reduction” as part of the change, it also highlighted that the move is part of its ongoing process of reducing its workforce.

“Much of this reduction was through voluntary retirements and the Deferred Retirement Program (DRP), a completely voluntary tool. As of today, 15,364 individuals voluntarily elected deferred resignation,” the reorg document read.

According to the agency’s own site — both currently and during the previous administration — the USDA has “nearly 100,000 employees.” This makes the stated number of USDA employees who have taken deferred resignation slightly more than 15% of the agency’s overall staff.

Programs within USDA will also be consolidated or eliminated. Those programs and efforts highlighted include:

The Agricultural Research Service (ARS) will eliminate its area offices, with “residual functions” to be preformed by its Office of National Programs.
The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) will consolidate its current 12 regions into five “over a multi-year period.”
The Food and Nutrition Service will reduce its current seven regions into five, aligned with the five hubs, in the next two years.
The Forest Service will “phase out” its nine regional offices in the coming year. It will maintain a reduced state office in Juneau, Alaska, and consolidate its stand-alone research stations into one in Fort Collins, Colo. It will keep its Fire Sciences Lab and Forest Products Lab.
Most “support functions” previously done within the USDA — such as civil rights functions, Freedom of Information Act responses, IT and HR, legislative and tribal relations, and others — will be moved into other agencies of the federal government in an effort “to reduce duplication” within the department.

The reorg document also notes that it will consolidate grants and financial assistance: “This consolidation will include, where feasible, the transfer of grant making and administration functions from USDA offices and agencies that currently have limited capacity to perform such duties to other offices and agencies.”

Most extension personnel in hub-area institutions whom The Packer reached out to about the potential impacts of the reorg either had not responded as of press time or reported that it is too early to provide any meaningful insight.

The News Service from Colorado State University in Fort Collins said, “CSU is continually tracking changes at the federal level and assessing impact to our work.”

Rollins: Impact in Her Own Words

Midday July 24, Rollins spoke to AgriTalk ‘s Chip Flory to talk about the announcement.

“This is just another step in the implementation of getting the government out of Washington, D.C., and getting it to the people,” she says, adding that the move “will save a lot of money.”

When asked if the existing D.C. staff will make the move to the five hubs or if new personnel will need to be hired in those areas, Rollins says she thinks it will be “half and half.”

“For those that do want to continue leading in the Forest Service or working hard on food stamps or, of course, our key work supporting farmers and ranchers, they’re going to have an amazing opportunity to move to, frankly, a better part of the country,” she says. “Out of Washington, D.C., better quality of life, better cost of living and continue to serve the great people of our country. I think that’s a win-win.”

For those who don’t want to move, she says “there are plenty of opportunities in the private sector.”

Rollins adds that the transition is not going to be easy, but the department is ready to do hard work that will streamline its operations and bring services closer to the communities being served. She gave the example of the Forest Service.

“A lot of people don’t know that the USDA manages all of our national forests. We’ve got 11,000 full-time firefighters on the USDA payroll that are constantly battling our fires and are the frontliners,” she says. “The fact that that leadership is in Washington, D.C., but most of the fires are in the West — that doesn’t make any sense. Why don’t we have the leadership of the Forest Service closer to the fires and the firefighters that they serve?”

Another Week of Major Planting Progress Wraps Up April

Mon, 28 Apr 2025 22:56:40 GMT

At this point in April, the majority of the farmers have buckled in for spring planting. And with another week of favorable conditions in the tractor’s rearview mirror, USDA has released the latest update on planting progress.

As of April 27, the report calculates 24% of corn and 18% of soybeans are in the ground. That’s up from 12% for corn and 8% for soybeans at this time last week.

The most progress since the last report goes to:
Corn

North Carolina (18% gain)
Minnesota (17% gain)
Iowa, Tennessee and South Dakota (16% gain)

Soybeans

Mississippi (19% gain)
Iowa and Louisiana (14% gain)
Arkansas (13% gain)

Progress up to this point is right on track with last year — with corn 1% behind and soybeans 1% ahead of the 2024 numbers.

Good Conditions To Go Around
With warm, sunny weather and rain where it’s needed, farmers are starting to feel cautiously optimistic for what’s ahead this growing season.

Started beans today. I thought the conditions were great before the rain the other day, even better now. After the last 2 wet miserable planting seasons I'll take it. Hopefully I don't jink myself #plant25 #notill pic.twitter.com/B3azISX2PF
— Bryan Biegler (@BryanBiegs) April 26, 2025

This oughta ease some drought concerns for a while around here. Already double what the forecast was pic.twitter.com/ENOizKjJGu
— Jacob Birklid (@NDSodbuster) April 28, 2025

In fact, conditions have been so good, some growers (like this Minnesota farmer) are way ahead of schedule.

And just like that, 2025 corn is planted. I can only remember being done with corn in April once before. #plant25 @MSP_Traffic pic.twitter.com/kBzZVPpxEz
— Shawn Anderson (@AndersonSM24680) April 27, 2025

They might even be wondering, “What’s the catch?”

It will either be a bin buster or a drought. It will be one or the other, I have not seen ground work up this nice in several years pic.twitter.com/klaAIP5GHx
— Greg Zimpleman (@gregzimpleman) April 27, 2025

Maybe it’s the ongoing windy conditions .

Planting soybeans into a great stand of rye. You can see the dirt blowing in the distance.

38mph wind gusts at the moment pic.twitter.com/JqipfrVtFk
— Ben Longlet 🇺🇸🌽🌱 (@blonglet) April 26, 2025

Or the forecast for the week ahead.

Let’s get crackin’! But actually let’s wait until after all this predicted hail tomorrow night…. pic.twitter.com/Zky90AX0x8
— Nicole Stecklein (@NicoleStecklein) April 27, 2025

🚨Here's our updated thinking for severe weather threats on Tuesday. Greatest timeframe of concern is from 1PM - 9PM ET. All hazards on the table. pic.twitter.com/WjSUuScifW
— BAM Weather (@bam_weather) April 27, 2025

Whether you’ll be making progress this week, or on a severe weather delay, take a lesson from this farmer-in-training. Grab a snack, pet your dog and catch your breath.

Tractor naps were the best pic.twitter.com/bzP1IF0798
— C Bar J (@CbarJRanch) April 27, 2025

Your Next Read: Want to Boost Soybean Yields But Not Costs? Sunlight Can Help

Planted Acres Soar As Mother Nature Plays Nice (For A Few Days)

Mon, 21 Apr 2025 23:05:17 GMT

Last week’s warm temperatures and handful of rain-free days were a perfect recipe for spring planting — and farmers took full advantage of the opportunity.

Great week of farming. #plant25 pic.twitter.com/KKneurz4Ay
— Travis L (@fishliveinwater) April 19, 2025

At this time last week, USDA reported 4% of corn and 2% of soybean acres had been planted. As of April 20, those numbers have jumped to 12% for corn and 8% for soybeans.

The states with the biggest gains in corn this past week include:

Missouri (24% gain)
North Carolina (23% gain)
Iowa and Kansas (16% gains)

For soybeans, the top states are:

Louisiana (34% gain)
Mississippi (20% gain)
Arkansas (18% gain)

This year’s progress is just ahead of 2024 — up 1% in corn and soybeans alike.

Making Progress While You Can
Not wanting to miss out on Mother Nature cooperating for a few days, some farmers are sharing this is the earliest they’ve planted.

Joined the party. Earliest I’ve ever planted. #plant25 pic.twitter.com/x5yCzGurUf
— Roger Warner (@JDFarmboy) April 18, 2025

This agronomist found corn that’s already emerging in Illinois. USDA reports 2% of the overall corn crop has emerged — mostly in Texas and North Carolina.

We have corn emergence near Stonington, IL. #plant25 pic.twitter.com/oRKQX1AOgR
— Stephanie Porter (@skporter) April 21, 2025

Rain Where It’s Needed?
While a dry spell during planting season is usually good news, there are still many parts of the country in desperate need of a good rain.

It’s dry in Nebraska, @RichVelde! #plant25 pic.twitter.com/kdglMjbkoM
— 🌽 John and my sidekick, Quila 🌾 (@CornDogQuila) April 18, 2025

In fact, as of April 15, USDA reports 30% of corn production and 23% of soybean production occurs in areas currently experiencing some degree of drought.

(USDA)

Though it won’t be enough to reverse a drought, planting did come to a halt over the weekend for some of those states in need of moisture. Farmers’ freshly planted crop received a solid soak as they got a quick break to enjoy time with family.

We got the crust softening rain plus some the corn needed. pic.twitter.com/o2hWbmP2p6
— Zach Townsend (@TandTAg) April 20, 2025

Don’t forget: Legend has it that rain on Easter means rain for another seven Sundays. Plan accordingly.

Rain for the next 7 Sundays??? pic.twitter.com/dYmHLfoLkj
— SharkFarmer (@sf28430) April 20, 2025

Your Next Read: No, You Aren’t Crazy: It Is The Windiest Start To Spring In 50 Years

More States Join Plant 2025 Thanks to a Break In the Rain

Mon, 14 Apr 2025 21:33:15 GMT

USDA might have started its weekly crop progress updates last Monday , but with warmer soil temps and sunny skies, this weekend certainly seemed like the unofficial kickoff to #plant2025.

Green flag on #plant25 pic.twitter.com/nYOriGSq7Z
— Ryan Heiniger (@FarmrHuntr) April 12, 2025

From Indiana to Oregon, farmers have taken to social media to share their “first day of planting” photos and send well wishes to other growers.

A lot of planters started rolling over the weekend. Soil conditions look great. Wishing everyone a safe and successful planting season!
— Dusty Rich 🇺🇸 (@drich82) April 14, 2025

The progress made the past couple of days will likely be reflected in next week’s crop progress report. As of April 13, USDA says 13 states have started planting corn and 10 are working on soybeans. The report calculates 4% of corn and 2% of soybeans are in the ground so far.

That’s compared to just 2% of corn last week .

These numbers are slightly behind last year at the same time, which were 6% for corn and 3% for soybeans. That could be because some states — such as Ohio and Kentucky — are still seeing the effects of the late March/early April flooding. This year’s windy spring has also caused delays.

Applying NH3 today. Have to hunt around for spots dry enough pic.twitter.com/66CMmAoyre
— Dennis Carnahan (@CarnahanDennis) April 14, 2025

Neighborhood is a buzz today with #Plant25 action. Looks like a good stretch of planting weather ahead. Spraying weather a little less desirable in the forecast. #wind #soybeans pic.twitter.com/QpQyOov38N
— Brent Johnson (@BrentJFF) April 12, 2025

The state that made the most progress in a week’s time was North Dakota – jumping from 6% to 19% of the corn crop in the ground. Louisiana also made progress in soybeans, up from 11% last week to 22% this week.

The next few days look promising for farmers to continue rolling in the field, but the weekend might bring another round of storms and showers.

Becoming increasingly concerned not only about severe weather potential late this week and beyond - but additional excessive rain and flooding threats.

Weekend trends bumped up rain potential through the end of the month big time.

This will be extremely impactful from… pic.twitter.com/IAZwIAwMar
— BAM Weather (@bam_weather) April 14, 2025

So, have you hit the fields yet?

pic.twitter.com/DaCb8sHrpJ
— Shay Foulk (@FoulkShay) April 14, 2025

Your Next Read: 60% Drought Risk? The Latest Forecast For The 2025 Growing Season

Corn Acres Top 95 Million, But There's a Silver Lining in USDA's March Acreage Report

Mon, 31 Mar 2025 18:03:41 GMT

USDA’s first survey-based acreage report of the year confirmed one thing: U.S. farmers plan to plant considerably morn corn acres than they did in 2024. But even with corn acres coming in above 95 million, and nearly 1 million acres more than what the trade anticipated, the corn market seemed unfazed by the news.

USDA’s March Prospective Plantings report estimates U.S. farmers will plant:

95.3 million acres of corn, up 5% from 2024
83.5 million acres of soybeans, down 4% from last year
45.4 million acres of wheat, down 2% from 2024
9.87 million acres of cotton in 2025, down 12%.

Total corn and soybean acres in the March report equal 178.8 million, which is up 1.1 million from a year ago.

The corn acreage came in above the average trade guess, which was 94.361 million, but the USDA survey results were below the soybean prereport estimates, which was 83.76 million acres. Why weren’t traders more surprised by USDA’s large acreage number for corn?

“I think it’s probably because there was also the expectation that no matter how high the number on corn plantings that it would be the smallest number of the year on corn plantings,” says Chip Flory, host of “AgriTalk” and Farm Journal’s economist. “So, the trade was leaning up on the corn number, but don’t rule out it having a negative impact by the end of the day.”

Ben Brown, an extension agricultural economist at the University of Missouri , says even though 95.3 million is above the average trade guess, it’s not as high as what some expected.

“There have been whispers that managed money traders were anticipating a number in the upper 95s or even 96-million-acre range for corn,” says Brown. “Those whispers pushed new corn down 9 cents per bushel last week and new crop soybeans up 22 cents per bushel. If true, today’s planting intentions report would have been disappointing to them and trigger a reversal of last week’s movement. It is still a relatively large corn acreage number.”

According to USDA’s report, total corn acreage is expected to be up 5%, with some of the biggest increases coming in the South.

Arkansas: Up 42%
Mississippi: Up 41%
Tennessee: Up 29%

“Iowa was the biggest amongst the I-States at over a half a million acres higher,” AgMarket.net’s Matt Bennett told AgDay’s Michelle Rook . “That’s no surprise. As I’ve been in Iowa several times this winter. I’ve heard over and over that they’re going to be heavy corn growers have told me that personally that it just didn’t work for them to plant soybeans. Then, if you add up Illinois, Indiana and Iowa, you’re over 1.1 million acres of additional corn.”

Bennett says the entire Midwest is seeing higher corn acres in 2025, as well.

“I understand that profit margins are still raised or thin. It’s just that we all know that U.S. growers love to plant corn first of all, and second of all, with $10 cash beans for the bids for beans, t that was a big factor for a lot of these folks,” Bennett added in his interview with Rook.

Shift in Acreage and Potential Impact on Yield
If farmers want to search for something positive in USDA showing such a large number of acres being planted in corn this year, Flory says you don’t have to go far. And that’s the fact that some of the large acreage shifts are coming in the fringe acres, which could bring down the national average yield on corn.

“The movement of acres from cotton and spring wheat to corn should make it tough to get to the 181 bu. per acre for a national average corn yield that USDA currently has penciled in,” Flory says.

If you dig into the details of USDA’s acreage report, and look at where the acres went, the 2025 principal crops planted acreage number fell in the Plains, but corn acres actually increased in some of those states.

“We haven’t hit the USDA trend line yield the last seven years causing many to wonder if the trend has changed and drawing the ire of many producers, so, the 181 bu. per acre number is already under question,” says Brown. “However, where corn increases matters. Of states with an average yield over 181 bushels per acre, which is 14, 13 of them had an increase in corn acreage relative to 2024. One could thus then make the case- we have increase corn acreage in states with state wide yield averages better than 181 bu. per acre.”

Soybean Acres Slip

The pretrade estimates were wide for corn, ranging from above 96 million to below 93 million. For soybeans, the range was 82.5 million to 85.5 million. USDA’s actual report number came in at 83.5 million, which was only 1 million acres higher than the lowest trade estimate. So, why did the soybean market trend lower after the report? Flory says it’s the opposite of corn.

“There was an attitude that the bean number would be the biggest we see this year, so the trade was leaning down on the bean number,” Flory explains.

Biggest Surprises Out of USDA’s Reports
The fact that the March 31 reports included Prospective Plantings and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) means the markets have a lot of information to digest. But what are the biggest surprises?

Here’s Flory’s list:

That the market surveys did a fantastic job of identifying the March 1 corn, soybean and wheat stocks. Wheat stocks are a touch heavy but not enough to make a difference.
Also, USDA printed a cotton plantings number below 10 million. “I think that’s important, even if the market doesn’t — wow,” Flory says.
Spring wheat at 10 million seedings is a bullish number.

For Brown, the biggest surprise wasn’t in acreage; it was the fact the March Grain Stocks report didn’t produce any shocks to the market.

“Maybe it’s adrenaline- but I was surprised the stocks report was as accurate as it was as it can be full of surprises especially for corn,” says Brown “However, corn came in spot on and the smallest surprise in the corn quarterly stocks since I started tracking in 2018/2019. Beans and wheat were also relatively small surprises.”

Brown says the total prospective acreage number wasn’t really a surprise, but he does question if U.S. farmers will hit that total this year.

“I just don’t know if producers will break their necks to plant everything this year,” says Brown.

Brown also points out sorghum was able to increase acreage in 2025 vs 2024 by 265,000 acres.

“Sorghum prices have been relatively weak compared to corn- but it is dry in Kansas and that could incentivize people to plant more of crops that do better in dry conditions,” says Brown.

Your Next Read:
Where Did the Acreage Shifts Come From and What Does it Mean for Prices?

What USDA Corn and Soybean Acreage Estimates Would Shock the Market On Monday?

Fri, 28 Mar 2025 12:14:21 GMT

Anticipation has been building ahead of USDA’s Prospective Plantings and quarterly Grain Stocks reports on Monday, March 31. Not only is USDA releasing its first survey-based acreage report of the year, but it’s the week President Donald Trump is set to unleash reciprocal tariffs. Market analysts warn it could be an explosive week in the markets, and farmers should prepare.

Pre-report corn acreage estimates by Reuters range from north of 96 million to below 93 million. For soybeans, the range is 82.5 million to 85.5 million.

🇺🇸Analysts see 2025 U.S. #corn plantings at 94.36 million acres and #soybeans at 83.76 million.
▪️Larger-than-normal range of estimates on corn; 3 of 22 analysts above 95.0M
▪️-3.8% predicted drop in soy acres YOY, the largest drop analysts have predicted in March since 2007 pic.twitter.com/itlriMiDGv
— Karen Braun (@kannbwx) March 25, 2025

USDA’s first glimpse at acreage, though it wasn’t survey-based, was during the Ag Outlook Forum in February. At that time, the agency’s corn estimate came in at 94 million acres, which caught the market by surprise. What would shock the market this time? That’s the question U.S. Farm Report’s Tyne Morgan had for market analysts this week.

“I think most people are thinking it’s going to be something closer to 95 [million],” Shawn Hackett, president of Hackett Financial Advisors, told U.S. Farm Report. “If we printed a 96 number that would be a surprise and the market would have to probably trade lower. That’s the working numbers I’m going with as to what the market has already built into the current price of corn.”

As Mike North, Ever.Ag’s principal of risk management, has traveled the country he’s encountered producers embracing more corn.

“[For corn] to come out higher than what the USDA Ag Outlook Forum projected in February would not be a real shock to me. I think even in this last day you’re seeing it’s settling into what could be a larger number,” North says.

For soybeans, USDA projected 84 million acres in February, which was down 3.1 million acres from the previous year’s final estimate. Hackett thinks soybeans’ double digit price gains on Thursday was the market anticipating lower acres.

“I think that the market, if you’re looking at soybeans, has been pulling in. We started to get some upside Thursday,” he says. “I think the market is starting to get a little worried about a low number and maybe having to reprice the soybean market relative to corn to maybe get those numbers back into balance by the time we get to the June acreage report. There’s been very interesting action in soybeans the last few days and how it’s trading relative to corn and wheat.”

Ahead of Monday’s report, AgWeb compiled details of some of the private acreage estimates.

AgMarket.net Pegs Corn Acres North of 95 Million

Co-founder of AgMarket.net Matt Bennett explains their 45-person team surveyed growers for data.

The brokerage firm is pegging corn acres at 95.39 million.

“Every region, quite frankly, had higher corn acres,” Bennett says. “A couple of retailers in central Illinois said this is the biggest spring run they’ve had for corn-on-corn acres in a long time.”

Soybean acres in the AgMarket.net report sit at 82.75 million.

“Growers just keep telling us we can’t make money with sub $10 beans,” Bennett says.

All wheat acres total 47.82 million, according to the AgMarket.net report, despite spring wheat acres holding strong. The firm points to overall wheat profitability affecting acres.

The estimates from the brokerage and consulting group have been fast-developing as Bennett says pre-plant decisions are still evolving thanks to the weather and the markets.

“There were some [planting] changes made, two weeks ago, literally. I think some folks were putting on anhydrous and said, ‘This is going on like a dream, and then they looked up, saw their cash fall bid for soybeans at $9.70 and thought, I don’t want to do that, I want to do this,’” Bennett says.

Allendale Estimate Falls Below 94 Million Corn Acres

Allendale’s annual acreage survey results confirm higher corn acres at the expense of soybeans.

Their survey shows corn planting intentions of 93.981 million acres, which would be up 3.4 million from 2024. Using 91.23% harvested and a 182.3 bu. per acre yield, production lands at a record 15.633 billion bushels, which is 767 million bushels more than 2024. Rich Nelson, chief strategist at Allendale, says that raises corn ending stocks to 2.1 billion bushels versus 1.54 billion bushels for this year.

Allendale tallies soybean planting intentions at 84.283 million acres. At 98.79% harvested and 52.7 bu. per acre, production totals 4.391 billion bushels, which is 24 million more than last year.

“On the corn side, there were no real surprises compared to what the trade is talking about,” Nelson says. “On the soybean side, which is about 2.8 million lower than last year, that’s maybe a little trimmer than some other people as far as what we happen to be hearing. The biggest question for ourselves in the survey was actually about the spring wheat numbers. Mind you, the Ag Outlook Forum numbers implied no drop in spring wheat for this year, but we’re seeing clear confirmations of some pretty good drops.”

Wheat acreage is estimated at 45.863 million acres, down 0.2 million from last year. Using 81.82% harvested and a 50.1 bu. per acre yield, production comes in at 1.879 billion bushels, which would be 92 million more than last year.

FBN Sees A Shift Away Soybean Acres

FBN’s survey included almost 1,000 responses from its farmer-member network. Cody Bills, director of U.S. Market Advisory & Brokerage at Farmer’s Business Network, says the company has done this report for five years with only a 1.3% error versus USDA’s numbers.

Compared with 2024 crop acres, FBN’s report shows corn acres up nearly 5 million acres in 2025 to 95.5 million acres.

“For corn, we are on the higher side of analysts’ expectations,” Bills says. “It’s a broad shift out of soybeans into corn — out of beans in Iowa, out of beans in Illinois and out of beans in Indiana.We also saw some notable shifts in North Dakota out of spring wheat into corn, and we saw some broad switching out of cotton into corn.”

The shift from soybeans leads to a 3.6 million acre dip comparing 2024 to prospective 2025 data.

“There’s uncertainty around the demand side of soybeans,” Bills says. “When you look at spring prices, when you think about crop insurance, corn is at $4.70, so 4¢ higher than last year. Soybeans are almost $1 lower. The ratio of bean prices to corn prices have slipped. The ratio of soybeans to corn is 2.2:1 this year compared to last year when we were 2.5:1.”

Adding up acres for corn and soybeans, FBN expects that total to be over 179 million.

“We saw some acres out of sorghum into corn. In general, we felt pretty comfortable being in line with the Ag Outlook Forum, which was somewhere around 178 and we’re sitting right around 179,” BIlls says.

Pro Farmer Expects Total Planted Acres to Jump 1 Million

Results of the annual Pro Farmer/Doane planting intentions survey signal there will be a notable shift from soybeans to corn this year. Total corn and soybean plantings are projected at 178.8 million acres, which would be up 1.11 million acres (0.6%) from last year. Total acres planted to corn, soybeans, wheat and cotton are expected to be down roughly 1 million acres at 233.9 million.

“This year happens to be one of the years with some bigger movement, especially on the corn side,” says Brian Grete with ProFarmer.

Based on Pro Farmer’s analysis of survey responses, producers intend to plant 93.75 million acres of corn this year, up nearly 3.2 million acres (3.5%) from last year. Corn acres are expected to increase in all but one key state, South Dakota, with Iowa, Nebraska and North Dakota acres to jump 4% or more and the cotton states signaling a 3.7% increase.

Producers indicate they intend to plant 85 million acres to soybeans this year, down 2.05 million acres (2.4%) from last year. Of the top nine soybean-producing states, six are projected to decrease plantings. Among states indicating a decline, soybean acres are projected to fall an average of 4%. The states noting higher plantings, which are South Dakota, Ohio and Minnesota in the Midwest, are expecting modest increases.

“About two-thirds of the corn acres that are gained are attributable to soybeans,” Grete says. “Every region except the Northern Plains is expected to see a decline in soybean acres.”

Part of that swing can be attributed to prevent plant acres coming back into production, not necessarily a switch from another crop, he adds. Declines in anticipated soybean acres in cotton states are the greatest at 3.9%.

Total wheat acres are projected at 45.4 million, down 680,000 acres (1.5%) from last year. Spring wheat seedings as a whole are expected to decline 590,000 acres (4.6%) to 12.1 million acres. The Pro Farmer survey shows Northern Plains producers will favor durum over other spring wheat. Other spring wheat acres are projected to decline, which is not overly surprising given current prices, Grete says. Contrary to USDA’s winter wheat seedings estimate in January, winter wheat acres are expected to be down modestly. Acres in historical winter wheat areas dropped while Midwest states signaled an uptick. Relatively longer growing seasons and favorable insurance regulations have encouraged Midwesterners to double crop wheat and soybeans.

Did the U.S. Cattle Inventory Shrink Even More in a Year? 60% of Ag Economists Think So

Fri, 31 Jan 2025 19:49:00 GMT

Last year’s USDA Cattle Inventory Report showed the smallest cattle herd in 73 years . And with no strong signs of rebuilding underway, along with strong prices providing no incentive to retain heifers, agricultural economists think the U.S. cattle inventory has shrunk even more since last year.

Last year, USDA’s Cattle Inventory report showed as of Jan. 1, 2024, the All Cattle and Calves inventory was 87.15 million head, a 2% reduction in just a year. Ahead of the 2025 report, the January Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor asked economists to project inventory as of Jan. 1, 2025.

50% said they expect inventory to fall to 86 to 86.9 million head.
20 percent expect inventory to remain similar to levels last year
An additional 20% think inventory will rise to 88 to 88.9 million head.
And 10% think cattle numbers could to 85 to 85.9 million head.

What would change a producer’s minds and give them confidence to grow their herds again? That’s exactly what we asked in the latest Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor, which is an anonymous survey of nearly 70 ag economists from across the country. While some said it will just take time, others pointed to the economics of strong cow-calf returns, weaker fed cattle prices and lower prices at the sale barn.

Other economists said:

“Today’s high prices are certainly incentive, along with the expectation of moderate feed costs.”
“Government policies, global demand, price cycle”
“Better spring forage supplies could be the most important factor in growth. More quality labor could be critical, too.”
“Confidence that the general economy outlook is positive and that there are unlikely to be negative policy shocks. And, of course, there has to be adequate forage.”
“Improved weather pattern in the West, along with profitable margins.”

Record-High Prices

January Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lindsey Pound )

Cattle prices continued to hit records this week. And with no signs of those record prices slowing down, it’s a question of how high these prices will actually go.

Is it the supply side or the demand side driving prices? According to economists in the survey, it’s both. And that’s why out of the 10 major commodities, economists are most bullish on cattle in 2025.

January Monthly Monitor

(Lindsey Pound )

Advice to Manage Risk
Even with no end in sight, the Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor asked economists, “What advice you would offer beef producers to consider to make sure they are in the right position to take advantage of high prices now and to be prepared for when the market changes?” Here’s what they had to say:

“Stay sold forward, and avoid over-leveraging.”
“To just keeping looking at their genetics, retaining those with the best traits to continually improve herd quality and meat marketability.”
“For those with adequate forage availability, the near-term outlook for cattle profitability is very positive. Remember, though, that all good things come to an end—those who wait too long may only have more animals to market when prices turn back down again.”
“Consider all options for their risk management strategy, including both insurance products, futures, options, or other strategies.”
“You must have something to sell.”
“Today, there is more downside price risk for cattle prices. Risk management against a significant decline in future cattle prices should be considered today.”
“Hedge sales and inputs both. Hedge the crush!”

On-Farm Income Is An Oxymoron This Year

Mon, 13 Jan 2025 21:29:22 GMT

One trend is showing that while farm income generally exceeded those of other U.S. households, the majority of farm households had farming losses and were getting the majority of their income from off farm sources, AgDay-TV reported on Monday.

Your Next Read on AgWeb: Biden Administration’s 45Z Announcement Leaves More Questions Than Answers

10 Charts to Help Understand the January Data Dump From USDA

Fri, 10 Jan 2025 22:15:35 GMT

2024 Production and January 2025 Stocks

(Farm Journal)

The 2024 crop was big but not quite as large as USDA originally forecast last fall. In its annual crop production report, the agency released its final tally for 2024.

2024 Production and January 2025 Stocks

(Farm Journal)

USDA says the 2024 corn crop totaled 14.9 billion bushels, down 3% from the 2023 estimate, with a record-high average yield of 179.3 bushels per acre and ending stocks nearly 200 million bushels lower than its December forecast. That’s also well off USDA’s high of 183.8 bushels per acre from October and just slightly above the 2023 average of 177.3.

2024 Production and January 2025 Stocks

(Farm Journal)

“This report was more friendly than just about anybody had expected,” said Joe Vaclavik, the founder and president of Standard Grain. “They did adjust harvest acreage a little bit, but the end result was a crop size that was 276 million bushels smaller than what they had previously reported. This is a great thing for prices and it’s a great thing for farmers.”

2024 set a record for corn yield at 179.3 bu./acre

(USDA)

Vaclavik lamented the timing during an interview with Michelle Rook for U.S. Farm Report. He said better numbers a couple of months ago could have helped farmers make decisions during harvest about sales and storage. Corn futures rose following the report and analysts like Jim McCormick of AgMarket.Net say that’s likely to impact sales in the coming months.

“What’s it going to take to get that farmer to sell that next chunk of corn,” asks McCormick. “Fiscally, farmers are definitely feeling the pinch, and this is going to make for a little bit brighter picture. One thing to keep an eye on, though, new crop corn [futures] is not rising as fast as the old crop today.”

2024 Corn Yield by State vs 2023

(USDA)

The U.S. soybean crop is a different story in terms of production direction. USDA officially puts 2024 production at 4.37 billion bushels with a per acre average of 50.7. Both numbers are higher than last year and above USDA’s previous October per acre yield estimate of 53.1 bushels per acre.

“The report was a little bit friendlier for old crop, but the world situation is still an anchor on the whole complex,” Vaclavik says. “You’ve got these big South American crops expected and big, healthy global balance sheets for soybeans. Whereas in corn, things are tightening up a little bit.”

2024 USDA Soybeans to 50.7 bu./acre

(USDA)

The soybean futures market fought its way back above the psychologically significant $10 per bushel mark following the report release.

“With a very substantial crop, harvest underway in Brazil and selling likely to be aggressive with the Brazilian real as weak as it is, it’s hard for me to see the U.S. exceeding $11 and even then, that might be a stretch,” said Shawn Hackett with Hackett Financial Advisors.

2024 Soybean Yield and Change vs 2023

(USDA)

Looking back to the 2024 Pro Farmer Crop Tour, USDA’s numbers are right on par with the team’s estimates and margin of error. Pro Farmer put its estimates following a weeklong survey of fields in August at 14.97 billion bushels for corn on an average of 181.1 bushels per acre with a margin of error of +/- 1%. At minus 1%, the Pro Farmer estimate matches USDA final production numbers of 179.3.

“USDA’s final corn production estimate came in just 112 million bushels below where Pro Farmer pegged the crop in the third week of August following Crop Tour,” said Brian Grete, editor of Pro Farmer. “We realized the corn crop wouldn’t be as big as USDA estimated as of Aug. 1, though production ended up falling slightly more than we anticipated.”

On the soybean side, Pro Farmer was a little more optimistic, calling for 4.74 billion bushels of soybeans +/- 2% with an average yield of 54.9 bushels to the acre.

“We overestimated the soybean crop following Crop Tour,” Grete added. “At that time, the soybean crop had faced very few weather hurdles and was heavily podded. Unfortunately, a hot and dry finish robbed bushels before harvest.”

2025 Winter Wheat Plantings

(USDA)

Wheat futures ended about even following USDA’s final production tally and global outlook. It says 2024 production totaled 1.97 billion bushels on a 51.2 bushel per acre average. The wheat ending stocks of 798 million bushels were adjusted just slightly higher.

Also released in a flurry of final reports is the total acres seeded to winter wheat for the 2024/2025 crop year. This season USDA says 34.1 million acres are planted. That’s up 2% from a year ago. Crop ratings in Kansas, the nation’s largest winter wheat producer, for November, stood at 55% good to excellent. In early January good to excellent only described 47% of the state. That said, much of the winter wheat areas have seen moisture in the last couple of weeks in the form of snow, ice or rain.

Change in Winter Wheat Planted Acres from 2024 to 2025

(USDA)

Looking globally, USDA is calling for slightly larger supplies, lower consumption, reduced trade and higher ending stocks. The agency expects exports from Russia to fall by 1 million tons while India is dealing with record prices amid dwindling supplies and robust demand.

South American Production
While USDA shares its final U.S. production numbers from 2024, it’s also keeping an eye on the growing season underway in South America. In its World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) researchers are forecasting the Brazilian corn crop to be 127 million tonnes, which is right in line with its previous estimates in December but 5 million more than a year ago. Soybeans in Brazil are forecast to be 169 million tonnes. Also steady compared to previous estimates. In Argentina, widespread drought and dryness are a concern for crops now in the heart of the season. However, USDA says it’s sticking with the current production forecast calling for a 51 million ton corn crop and a 52 million ton soybean crop.

2025 WASDE Estimates for South American Crop Production

(Farm Journal)

“When you look at the Brazilian crop, they chose to leave it unchanged this time around,” said McCormick. “I think nine out of ten traders are looking for that crop to get bigger.”

USDA Surprises the Market By Raising U.S. Corn Yield Estimate, Leaves Soybean Yield Stagnant

Thu, 12 Sep 2024 21:00:07 GMT

USDA’s September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) produced a bit of a surprise with the agency raising their national corn yield estimate. USDA left the soybean yield estimate unchanged, which sparked a bullish reaction in the markets. However, analysts chalk it up to how early it is in the year and the uncertainty around soybean yields in early September.

Leading into the report, surveys showed analysts expected USDA to decrease yields. Instead, the agency bumped the national corn yield by a half a bushel.

USDA’s updated September forecast shows

U.S. corn yield: 183.6 bu. per acre
Corn production: 15.2 billion bushels, up 39 million bushels from August
U.S. soybean yield: 53.2 bu. per acre
Soybean production: 4.6 billion bushels, down 3 million bushels from August

USDA’s September WASDE report is the first time USDA actually goes into fields to measure yields. The field samples, along with farmer surveys, are then used to update their yield and production forecasts. The change to the national corn yield caught analysts by surprise, according to Matt Bennett with AgMarket.net.

“The crop didn’t finish great,” Bennett said. “I think overall the Corn Belt was fairly dry in the month of August. But I think what USDA found is that obviously there’s a lot of ears out there, and it looks like it’s going to be a pretty good size ear. Corn looks like you’re going to have a pretty big crop.”

Where did USDA’s higher yields come from? The state-by-state breakdown shows even though USDA trimmed the Illinois state yield estimate by 3 bu. per ace, the agency raised Iowa’s yield by the same amount compared to August.

The largest increases came in Texas, where the agency raised the yield from 117 bu. per acre in August to 121 bu. per acre in September, which is a 3.4% increase for the state. Pennsylvania’s yield was increased 3%, from 135 bu. per acre in August to 139 bu. per acre this month.

The biggest declines came to North Carolina where drought has hammered the crop there. USDA now forecasts the state yield to drop to 88 bu. per acre, a 12% decline from August.

Corn yield changes from August to September

(USDA NASS )

Arlan Suderman of StoneX Group points out even with the increase in yields, the corn balance sheet isn’t a disaster.

“I originally thought USDA came up really kind of back in May, fluffed up their demand estimates to keep sending stocks down around below 2.1 billion bushels,” said Suderman. “I feel better about the number now because we have a smaller Black Sea crop and we’re generally expecting acreage to be planted in Argentina to be down 20 to 25%, granted, that’s going to soybeans and that’s bearish soybeans. But if you have a much smaller crop in Argentina, you have a smaller crop in the Black Sea that could boost our exports in the last half the marketing year. I generally agree with the stronger ethanol demand. Cheaper prices are creating demand.”

USDA also adjusted ending stocks for corn, lowering it 55 million bushels to 1.8 billion bushels of old crop. That adjustment was based on increased exports. The agency is forecasting 2 billion bushels of new crop corn.

“USDA raised ethanol by 15 million bushels, you raised exports 40 million bushels,” Bennett added. “And so that 55 million bushels basically of a lower carry out coming into this year offset the 39 million bushels more corn that they came up with production. So, you actually brought carryout down.”

U.S. Ending Stocks

(Data Source: USDA; Graphic: Lori Hays)

Bullish for Beans?

The soybean side of USDA’s latest report was more mundane. USDA’s decision to leave soybean yields unchanged from the last report, despite the late season dry weather that could impact the crop, might have been the safe move for USDA this early in the season.

“I think the trade was really bracing for much higher yields,” said Suderman. “I think they saw the possibility that maybe we would be up there close to 55 bushels per acre. That was kind of the whisper number, so to speak, not necessarily the average trade guess that was published. So there’s a little bit of a sigh of relief.”

USDA also made revisions to carryout, with old crop soybean carryout now sitting at 340 million bushels, according to USDA. New crop was revised down 10 million bushels from last month to 550 million.

“When you see USDA increased domestic crush a little bit, 5 million bushels for the old crop, not making any adjustments upward on yield overall, you think, ‘Okay, maybe the bad news is into this market.’ I don’t know that we can really take that assumption this early in the game because soybeans are still fill in pods and so there’s a lot of potential changes. I think USDA mostly just took a safe route this month,” Suderman said.

Suderman says what was one of the more interesting details of the changes to soybeans were the soybean pod counts from USDA.

“It was interesting to note that pod counts in this in this report were below year ago levels. And that was a little bit surprising considering the pod populations that Pro Farmer found on their Crop Tour last month. Maybe we lost a lot of pods there in late August. That would be a possibility. But on the other hand, what counters that is you do the math and USDA’s numbers suggest a pretty good sized seed size. You don’t usually lose a lot of pods if you have conditions conducive for good seed size.”

Suderman said bottomline is he thinks USDA wasn’t comfortable in making big changes when the soybeans aren’t fully mature. He called USDA’s September report a “safe route” for siybeans.

“Over the last five years, pod counts have gone up every year of the last five years from September to October by varying amounts, sometimes significantly. So I don’t really think we’ll have a good handle on the soybean crop size until the October report,” Suderman said.

Nonetheless, Bennett points out you can’t discount how hot and dry the month of August was for parts of the U.S., a trend that has continued into September.

“August was pretty darn dry,” Bennett said. “I would say coming into the month of August, most people had a pretty full soil moisture profile. And so you’ve got to think that maybe some of these early beans, especially, had plenty to get to the finish line. Whenever you look at the USDA report, I mean, essentially there wasn’t a whole lot in the way of changes. The crop size didn’t change or just marginally, if you look at the balance sheet, it’s just a slight amount.”

Soybean yield changes from August to September

(USDA NASS)

USDA made some steep revisions to their yield estimates in Ohio, Kentucky and Tennessee. USDA lowered the Ohio yield estimate by 6.8%, now at 55 bu. per acre. Tennessee was revised 6% lower, to 46 bu. per acre.

However, Louisiana’s yield was increased 6% to 52 bu. per acre. USA also raised Iowa’s state yield to 63 bu. per acre, a 3% increase from August.

Old crop soybean carryout sits at 340 million bushels, according to USDA. New crop was revised down 10 million bushels from last month to 550 million.

“Carryout did come down 10 million bushels, but it’s still at 550 [million],” Bennett said. “And so this is a big enough crop considering we’re carrying a pretty darn big crop to boot. Now most of the time whenever you raise a soybean yield, it’s like 80% of the time Pro Farmer goes up from the August USDA report, USDA in September also typically goes higher, and that was not the case, but again, there are a lot of pods out there. We just didn’t have enough rain to fill them.”

Burning Question This Fall: Do You Store or Sell at Harvest?

The heat and dry weather means harvest is rapidly approaching for some, while it’s well underway for others. And as farmers weigh the current commodity prices, it’s a big decision this fall: do you store the crop or sell it off hte combine?

Suderman says there are three things farmers need to keep in mind this fall when making that decision.

Rapid Harvest: “It looks like we’re going to have a weather pattern that facilitates a rapid dry down, which means that harvest of both record corn and soybean crops coming in very quickly, really stretching our our storage facilities,” said Suderman.
Low Water Levels and Possible Port Strike: “We also could end up with some problems on the Mississippi River with low water levels. There’s even a risk of a port strike by longshoremen on the East Coast as well as the Gulf Coast, and that could create some problems for exports as well,” added Suderman.
Basis at Risk: “With all of those factors, basis could be at risk. Amount of grain coming on at harvest time could be at risk. So depending on your on farm storage, you need to really pay attention to that risk. If you don’t have the on farm storage, you need to take steps to protect yourself, protect the equity that you’ve built into your farm,” Suderman said.

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USDA’s Latest Farm Income Data Looks Brighter Than Early 2024 Numbers

What You Need to Know About USDA's Surprisingly Friendly Changes to Corn, And Why Prices Seem Unimpressed

Fri, 12 Jul 2024 20:30:26 GMT

USDA threw the corn market a curve ball in the July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report released Friday, and it was a good one with an unexpected cut to old crop corn stocks through increased demand.

Here’s a snapshot of the surprise changes:

· USDA projects corn ending stocks to fall to 1.877 billion bushels, down from 2.022 billion last month

· USDA raised old crop exports by 75 million bushels

· The agency also increased feed usage by 75 million bushels for old crop corn

· Increased new crop corn feed usage by 75 million bushels

Joe Vaclavik of Standard Grain says the substantial increases to old crop demand forecast came out of nowhere.

“It was about the friendliest report you possibly could have received from USDA today,” Vaclavik says. “They added hundreds of millions of bushels of demand. A lot of it was old crop, there was a little bit of a new crop. Relative to expectations, it’s a friendly deal, because that demand that they added for old crop, that’s real demand. Everything on the new crop balance sheet — the yield the acres, the demand — that’s all smoke and mirrors. That marketing year hasn’t started yet, but the old crop stuff is real. And you can take it to the bank.”

However, the markets were unimpressed by the friendly adjustments that came as a surprise to demand. Vaclavik says the report was friendly compared to what it could have been, but corn prices barely inched into the green, with the September corn contract closing 1 ¾¢ higher at $4.02. New crop December contract finished up 4¢ at $4.14 ¾ .

Peter Meyer of Muddy Boots Ag says he doesn’t trust the demand numbers. He anticipated USDA would increase demand, but it was a matter of where, and he says he just doesn’t trust the demand side at this point.

“One of the more telling things to me is that I always look at year on year supply versus demand, and especially in corn, there’s a very high correlation between changes in supply and changes in demand. Total supply now from 23/24 to 24/25 is up 270 million bushels. Demand is up 50. This is very telling to me, because typically during the year, they will adjust that by 50%. And we did a 25-year study where actually the correlation is probably closer to 85%. But the fact that they did not use their 50% rule and increase demand by 135, and only increase it by 50 suggests to me there’s very little confidence in their demand numbers.”

Even with the surprising adjustments to demand in the July WASDE report, the factor haunting the grain market is the fact farmers are holding on to 3 billion bushels of corn in on-farm storage. That’s what USDA’s June Grain Stocks report revealed. And at 3 billion bushels, that’s the highest level of on-farm storage since 1988.

“The general narrative among traders and analysts is that the market cannot rally in a material fashion until that stuff is sold,” Vaclavik says. “I don’t know if that necessarily has to be the case. If you see demand enter the marketplace in a material fashion, and I think it’s got to be on exports, I think that’s what could move the needle real quickly.”

Vaclavik says U.S. corn prices are competitive on the global market again. So, if China or some big buyer came in and really wanted to buy U.S. corn, he says the situation could change, and it could eat into the 2 billion bushels of old crop carryout USDA is currently estimating.

“The new crop marketing year hasn’t started yet. I still think overall, this report today, it was a friendly item. The on-farm stocks issue isn’t, but we did get some good news today,” Vaclavik says.

Meyer says the battle in the market right now is almost a game of chicken between the farmers holding on to a large amount of crop grain, and the funds being record short.

“The funds really don’t have a fundamental view, to be honest with you, they are still trading the path of least resistance, and the farmers are holding on for higher prices,” Meyer says. “I agree with Joe, and this is a friendly WASDE report, but how friendly can it be? $4? $4.25? $4.30? Is that going to get the corn out of the farmers’ hands? I don’t know.”

He says the funds will keep selling and stay short until the farmers capitulate and start selling the corn they have stored in the bin.

“Funds are not stupid,” Meyer says. “They saw those 3 billion bushels in on-farm storage, and they know what’s going on.”

USDA July 2024 WASDE Crop Production Forecasts

(Lindsey Pound)

USDA left yield for corn and soybeans unchanged in the July report, which wasn’t a surprise. For new crop, USDA currently has yield and production forecast as:

· 181 bu. per acre yield for corn with corn production forecast at 15.1 billion bushels.
· Soybean yield pegged at 52 bu. per acre and production at 4.4 billion bushels.

When could USDA adjust yield, and how big of a yield could we see? Plus, why is the corn market immune to the storm that caused widespread hail damage in Nebraska and parts of Iowa this week? Vaclavik and Meyer discuss in the video below.

10 Charts to Show Farmers' Biggest Challenges Identified in the USDA June Acreage and Grain Stock Report

Mon, 01 Jul 2024 20:22:15 GMT

USDA’s June Acreage report released Friday sent chills through the corn market. With planted acres for corn above pre-trade estimates at 91.5 million acres, the combination of more acres and growing stocks sent corn prices tumbling.

Here’s a quick recap of what USDA had to say in Friday’s June Acreage and Grain Stocks reports:

2024 corn planted acreage at 91.5 million, which is down 3 percent from 2023, but above the 90 million acres in the March Prospective Plantings report.
Soybean acreage was pegged at 86.1 million acres, up 3 percent from last, but down from the 86.5 million in March.
All wheat is estimated at 47.2 million acres, slightly lower than the 47.5 in March, but down 5 percent from 2023.
All cotton planted acres for 2024 is estimated at 11.7 million acres, up 14 percent from last year.
The June Grain Stocks Report estimates on farm stocks are up even more, up 36.5 percent. USDA says there are more than 3 billion bushels of corn currently stored on the farm, which is the highest level since 1988.
Farmers are also holding on to more soybeans. Soybean stocks are up 22% overall. On farm stocks are even more shocking, up more than 46% since June of last year.

An In-Depth Look at Acreage Shifts

The report did come with a special note. USDA cautions farmers reported not being finished with planting when the survey was conducted between May 30 and June 16. “Nationally, corn left to be planted was 3.36 million acres. Soybeans left to be planted for the United States was 12.8 million acres,” USDA noted at the top of the report.

So, where did the planted corn acres shift in 2024 compared to 2023? According to USDA, the biggest shift to more corn acres came in the West, Western Plains and parts of the East Coast. Parts of the Southern growing areas saw a big dip in corn acres this year.

Percent change in corn acreage in USDA’s June Acreage report.

(Lori Hayes )

As for soybeans, the shift to more soybeans happened in the Upper Midwest, Louisiana and Kentucky. Key growing acres like Iowa, saw acreage up 1 percent year-over-year. Illinois is up 3 percent.

Percent change in soybean creage in USDA’s June Acreage report.

(Lori Hayes )

In Friday’s report, USDA stated of the total acres planted and to be planted, 3.36 million acres were reported as remaining to be planted when the survey was conducted.

USDA’s corn planted and harvested acreage estimates over the past decade.

(USDA NASS)

USDA says of the total acres planted and to be planted, 12.8 million acres were reported as remaining to be planted when the survey was conducted.

U.S. soybean planted and harvested acreage over the past decade.

(USDA NASS)

A big question after the March Prospective Plantings report was the loss of principal crop acres, which fell 6.3 million acres year over year. But in the June report, USDA shows the loss of principal crop acres wasn’t as much, however, we are still seeing big losses in some state year-over-year.

Change in principal crop acreage compared to 2023.

(USDA NASS)

USDA says crops included in area considered principal acres include corn, sorghum, oats, barley, rye, winter wheat, Durum wheat, other spring wheat, rice, soybeans, peanuts, sunflower, cotton, dry edible beans, chickpeas, potatoes, sugarbeets, canola, and proso millet. Harvested acreage is used for all hay, tobacco, and sugarcane in computing total area planted and includes double cropped acres and unharvested small grains planted as cover crops.

Changes in principal crop acres over the past decade.

(USDA NASS)

Changes in principal crops since the March survey.

(USDA NASS )

The Amount of Grain Stored on Farm Skyrockets

In addition to the June Acreage report, USDA also released an updated look at Grain Stocks as of July 1. It showed farmers are holding on to a surprising amount of old crop corn with stocks up 22 percent compared to June 2023.

The June Grain Stocks Report estimates on farm stocks are up even more, up 36.5 percent. USDA says there are more than 3 billion bushels of corn currently stored on the farm, which is the highest level since 1988.

Corn Stocks on farm

(USDA NASS)

Farmers are also holding on to more soybeans. Soybean stocks are up 22% overall. On farm stocks are even more shocking, up more than 46% since June of last year.

Soybean stocks on farm

(USDA NASS)

However, both sorghum and durum wheat stocks declined compared to a year ago, according to USDA.

Grain Stocks

(USDA NASS)

Related Market Insights:

Corn Prices Tank After USDA’s Shocking Acreage Increase

Jerry Gulke: Where Do Prices Go From Here?

The Countdown to USDA's Big June Acreage Report: Ag Economists Weigh In on Wild Cards

Mon, 24 Jun 2024 15:13:22 GMT

USDA’s June Acreage report tends to be a major market mover.

Ahead of the June 28 report, we asked ag economists to weigh in on where they think the acreage numbers could land. The majority of economists think we could see more soybean acres than what was revealed in the March Prospective Plantings Repor t, but they don’t expect the corn acreage estimate to grow much.

In the latest Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor , a survey of nearly 70 ag economists from across the country:

60% of economists think corn acreage will fall in the 90 to 91 million acres range.
That compares to the 91 million acres USDA found when they surveyed growers about planting intentions back in March.
20% think it’ll be even lower, in the 89 to 90 million acres range.
20% also think it could come in higher, at 91 to 92 million acres.
Soybean acreage was slightly higher, with 60% of ag economists saying 87 to 88 million acres.
That compares to the 86.5 million in March.

The No. 1 Thing Farmers Can Do Now

As the market awaits the big report, what are some potential fireworks that could come out of the report? S cott Brown, University of Missouri ag economist who helps author the monthly report, says the big fireworks could come if USDA shifts both corn and soybean acres.

“I think if we get a growth in both corn and soybean planted acres, it will be a negative for markets, at least they’ll respond negatively in the short-run,” Brown says. “I would encourage folks to think about whether there’s any risk management they might want to do before the report comes out. It’s hard to tell, at this point, which side of that. Some ag economists are saying we will see less acres for both corn and soybeans. If that happens, we could get a surprise on the other side as well. I keep saying I think we’ve planted more acres, but we’ll see what happens on the yield side. All of this could continue to put pressure on prices to move lower as we get closer to fall harvest.”

What If Corn Acres Grow?

If corn acres come in around the 91 million acre mark, Krista Swanson, lead economist for National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) , thinks the U.S. balance sheets can handle the shift to slightly more corn acres.

Economists think we’ll gain back little bit of maybe what we lost in terms of principal crop acreage from the prospective plantings report back in March, when we see the June acreage report at least, that’s what the economist that reported this month say.

“It really depends on where yield comes in, and that’s a big question at this point in the growing season,” says Swanson. “Tight now USDA is projecting a 181 bu. per acre yield, and just as a reminder, last year, the 177.3 bushel per acre yield that we had was a record yield. So we’re talking about a yield that’s four bushels per acre above that. So, I think that there’s some question as to if we can actually achieve that level.”

She says if the yield comes in under 181 bu. per acre, and acreage stays around 91 million acres, it could cut the U.S. carryout.

“If we had a yield at 178 [bu. per acre], which would still be a record just edging out over where we were last year, there is a way to end up with carry out below 2 billion bushels. So, it’s the combination of acres, and also where yield comes in this year,” says Swanson.

She says some areas of the U.S. are off to a great start with this year’s corn crop, especially in areas seeing drought relief. However, other areas of the U.S., including Texas and Minnesota, are now seeing too much rain.

“I definitely think that there’s some areas of the country where maybe we’ll have some of those yield impacts due to weather,” she adds.

However, Swanson points out if USDA shows 1 million more acres of corn and 1 million more acres of soybeans, that will put pressure on commodity prices.

The Principal Crops Wildcard in USDA’s June Acreage Report

Another wildcard is what happens with the principal crops number. In March, one of the big surprises was the drop in overall acres this year. USDA’s report showed principal crop acres fell 6.3 million acres year over year. The biggest decline in overall acreage came in Texas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Kansas and South Carolina.

The Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor asked economists to weigh in on where they think those 6 million acres could go. More than half said it could go to more corn acres. Some economists think those 6 million acres could also shift to soybeans, cotton or wheat, but a few economists also think USDA could show more hay acres.

Swanson also thinks some of those acres this year shifted to CRP or other climate programs, including solar.

“There was the open enrollment in CRP. I know, just speaking on our farm, in particular, we have we have quite a few acres that we farmed last year that are in CRP for this year. And so you know, that’s one potential place that some of those acres,” she says. “I think that we’ll still be under acres with total principal crops compared to last year, but we’ve also seen expansion of things like solar and that that’s taking up some farmland.”

Swanson says she does expects to not see 6 million acres of lost principal crop acreage in the June report, expecting that number to come down, possibly moving to more corn and soybean acres.

Members of industry agree there are incentives for farmers to plant any potential acre.

Jeff Tarsi, president of global retail at Nutrien, said during the company’s early June investor day that Prevented Planting coverage is not as strong as it has been in the past, and while it may be a tight time window, farmers will want to finish any corn acres they can and also plant soybeans.

“There’s a big difference this year versus in the past–a grower is really not incentivized to take prevent plant this year. And so some those areas where we have seen some crop shifts, what I’m very confident of is we’ll see a crop planted on that acreage in 2024,” he says.

What You Need to Know About USDA's May WASDE Report

Fri, 10 May 2024 19:28:39 GMT

USDA’s May WASDE report sent corn and soybean prices higher, it also caused wheat to soar. However, one analyst questions why the trade viewed the latest report as so bullish, considering the U.S. is still staring at large crops and carryout.

In Friday’s report , USDA provided a first look at the 2024/25 crop production picture. USDA is projecting a smaller corn crop compared to last year. Even with a trend-line yield penciled in at 181 bu. per acre, it’s fewer corn acres that’s causing a lower production picture with USDA penciling in 14.86 billion bushels.

In contrast, more soybean acres prompted USDA to pencil in a bigger soybean crop this year. With a projected soybean yield of 52 bu. per acre, production is forecast to reach 4.45 billion bushels, which is up considerably from last year’s crop size of 4.165 billion bushels.

USDA pegging 2024/25 corn stocks at 2.1 billion, which was below trade estimates. Soybean stocks are projected at 445 million bushels, above trade estimates, and wheat is forecast at 766 million bushels, below trade expectations.

“I didn’t see really anything in it that I thought was all that bullish from it; I thought it was more bearish than anything,” says Jon Scheve, president of grain trading for Superior Feed Ingredients.

Scheve says he took a look back at the May WASDE report from last year to compare USDA’s initial thoughts on the 2023/24 new crop, and USDA had penciled in a 2.2-billion-bushel carryout. He says December 2023 corn was trading at $5.15 then.

“It ends up that we come in now here at just over 2 billion on the carryout, and what we also saw was that the price that the USDA thought the farmer would get would be $4.80 for the average price,” Scheve says. “Now they’re already saying that price is down to $4.65, and we’re struggling to even maintain that value for cash for a lot of farmers across this country.”

Scheve says that’s also one reason he doesn’t see why a bullish reaction stemmed from the latest WASDE report.

“Future reports are going to be over 2 billion, and that’s assuming if we only plant 90 million acres of corn,” he adds.

One of the bullish revisions in USDA’s May WASDE report that might be viewed as bullish is the fact new crop corn carryover came in 180 million bushels below trade expectations.

“Old crop demand was 100 million bushels higher, and then they have new crop demand, higher as well. And so that ended up with a carryout figure that was well under the average estimate,” says Chip Nellinger, founder and owner at Blue Reef Agri-Marketing. “I think that’s certainly something that supports us going into the growing season here. We have to get the crop planted, and we have to make sure that we can get pollinated and have that big crop and that chance at 181- bu. [per acre trendline yield].”

USDA’s first look at the 2024/25 corn crop shows a yield of 181 bu. per acre. The latest look at the U.S. Drought Monitor clearly shows an improving drought picture with nearly 75% of the Midwest is now drought free. Recent rains have wiped extreme drought from Iowa, and the area of the country now in extreme drought is at its lowest level since April of 2020.

With just slightly over 15% of the nation in drought, the rain has been welcome for repairing dryness, but the planting pace is also starting to struggle.

Considering the moisture relief, but also the lagging planting pace in the U.S., can the U.S. hit a 181 bu. per acre corn national yield like USDA currently has projected? Nellinger says there’s a possibility we don’t.

“We’ve never hit it before, right,” Nellinger says. “If you use a five-year average of national average corn yield, it’s 5 bu. to 6 bu. below where they have the trendline at 181. I think the longer it takes to plant this crop, the higher the bar is to hit 181 [bu. per acre].”

He says the longer-term market outlook is really focused on how the weather is in June and July.

“Certainly, we have a lot better moisture than we did before, that’s a good thing to get this crop up and out of the ground, assuming we get the rest of it planted,” he says. “But it doesn’t mean you still can’t have isolated hot and dry weather, and heat, probably more than anything is what we need to worry about.”

Nellinger points out the lack of heat was the salvation for last year’s crop.

“And so there’s still plenty of time for scares out there,” Nellinger says. “In my mind, 181 it’s very doable, but we better get the crop in the ground a lot faster paced, and we have the last two or three weeks here.”

The planting pace will become more in focus over the coming weeks, and according to Scheve, the market is starting to get nervous about the current delayed planting pace.

“If we look at where the market is with a 2-billion bushel carry out, we should be at $4 corn,” Scheve says. “And so because of that, the market has already built 90¢ of weather premium into this, so I would be very concerned.”

Scheve says while it’s true the U.S. has never grown a 181-bu. per acre national corn yield, if you look back in history dating back to 1974, on average, the U.S. sets a new record crop one in every three years.

“So, I would say there’s a ton of weather premium at the moment, but if we don’t have this crop, you know three-fourths planted with within two weeks, then I think that the chances are 50% that we don’t necessarily have to hit trendline yield,” Scheve says.

The South American Production Wild Card

Portions of Brazil faced catastrophic flooding, and now there’s a lot talk about the impact on the crop in South America. The severe flooding that hit Brazil’s southernmost state of Rio Grande do Sul should cause farmers to lose an estimated 1.32 MMT of soybeans, according to data from consultancy AgResource this week.

USDA made slight adjustments to the South America crop in its report, cutting Brazil’s corn crop by 2 mmt to 122 mmt. The soybean crop in Brazil was trimmed by 1 mmt, to 154 mmt.

In Argentina, USDA cut the corn crop by 2 mmt, to 53 mmt, but left soybeans unchanged.

Related May WASDE Report News

WASDE a Mixed Bag for Grains but Rally Continues: Is the Market Trading the Report?

NASS Discontinues County Estimates For Crops And Livestock and July Cattle Report

Fri, 12 Apr 2024 16:56:58 GMT

If you use the annual County Estimates for Crops and Livestock or the July Cattle report from USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), plan on looking elsewhere to find that information.

NASS announced on Tuesday that it has eliminated those two reports, along with the Cotton Objective Yield Survey.

“They’re pretty significant,” Lance Honig acknowledged to Chip Flory, AgriTalk host, in a discussion on Wednesday afternoon.

Too Few Dollars Available

Honig said the cuts are a direct result of the agency having fewer dollars available to develop the reports. As acting director of the NASS methodology division, Honig oversees all crop estimating programs at USDA-NASS. This includes more than 200 official USDA reports each year covering acreage, yield, production, price and value for more than 100 crop commodities.

“Certainly, we’re not excited about having to do that. But just like anybody else that has a budget to manage, you can only spend what you’ve got, and so we need to be respectful of that. Unfortunately, sometimes, hard decisions like this have to be made,” Honig said.

“Boy, Lance, the one that has raised the most questions that have come my way was about the county estimates on crops. That data was used in determining federal farm program payments, wasn’t it?” Flory asked.

“Well, not as much as it used to be,” Honig replied.

Honig noted that from a crop insurance standpoint, The Risk Management Agency (RMA) has been utilizing more of their own internal data to support farm programs rather than relying on NASS data.

“We’ve worked closely with them to ensure that the impact won’t be as extensive as a lot of folks might think, from the outside looking in,” Honig said.

Pushback From Groups And Individuals

The agency’s decision to cut the reports was met with criticism from various ag groups and individuals.

“Unfortunately, due to poor government mismanagement, of literally everything, certain reports are being cancelled,” wrote Chris Swift, Swift Trading Co., in “Shootin’ The Bull,” his daily futures and commodity market commentary.

“While this is certainly not the first time, and most likely not the last, it is just another slap in the face of every producer out there by every government official that helped to promote this issue,” Swift added.

The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA) also took exception to the decision by NASS.

“NCBA calls on USDA-NASS to immediately reverse this decision and continue delivering on its stated mission of providing timely, accurate, and useful statistics in service to U.S. agriculture,” said Ethan Lane, NCBA vice president of government affairs, in a prepared statement.

Decisions Weren’t Made Lightly

Honig told Flory the agency didn’t want to cut the reports.

“In a perfect world, we don’t want to discontinue anything. In fact, we’d love to do more,” he said. “That’s what we’re all about – providing as many statistics as possible about everything related to agriculture. But the reality is, we just can’t do everything.”

Honig said the agency scrutinized the value of the reports and the information they provide. One of the factors they looked at is whether the same information the reports provide could be accessed elsewhere, and in each case, determined that the answer is yes.

“We’re trying not to leave anybody empty handed (regarding NASS reports). But as time goes on, if more of this (budget constraints) continues to happen, it’s only going to get more painful, because you just have to go deeper and deeper every time it happens,” Honig said. “Money’s tight everywhere, and it’s not unique just to NASS.”

The full discussion on AgriTalk is available here:

Here's Why Analysts Are Scratching Their Heads After USDA's New WASDE Report

Thu, 11 Apr 2024 21:41:28 GMT

USDA’s monthly look at supply and demand offered a few surprises, including the lack of changes to South America’s crops. The April World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) showed larger wheat and soybean ending stocks, but smaller ending stocks for corn.

USDA’s estimates for corn, soybeans and wheat ending stocks all came in higher than what the trade expected.

• Corn ending stocks: 2.1 billion bushels, 50-million bushels lower than last month
• Soybean ending stocks: Up 25 million bushels to 340 million
• Wheat ending stocks: 698 million bushels, up 25 million bushes

“The cut in corn ending stocks have certainly been justified,” says Arlan Suderman, chief economist for StoneX Group. “Cheap prices generate demand, and that’s happening in corn. I think the bigger cuts yet to come are going to be related to added ethanol demand.”

Suderman says if you look at the marketing year to date, ethanol use for corn exceeds the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA’s newly revised target by 98 million bushels.

“We could see that ethanol demand go up considerably, yet we’re still going to be above 2 billion bushels. So I don’t want to get anyone overly bullish on that,” says Suderman.

On soybeans, Suderman says the 25-milion-bushel increase in ending stocks was caused by USDA’s cut to soybean exports.

“I think that was justified, but they continue to hold the line on crush, and I think they’re going to be forced to increase crush,” says Suderman. “And that’s going to pull us back toward that 300-million-bushel ending stocks estimate, still not bullish, but not as bearish as where they currently have us.”

South American Numbers are Suspect

USDA made small changes to South American crop production numbers by lowering corn production in Argentina by 1 mmt. Those revisions were due to drought’s impact on the crop there. USDA made no change to Argentina’s soybean crop estimate.

The agency also made no changes to its forecast for Brazil’s corn or soybean crop size. Chip Nellinger, owner of Blue Reef Agri-Marketing, says USDA’s updated South American crop forecast was the bigger surprise in Thursday’s report.

“To me, the biggest surprise is the lack of changes that we saw from the USDA versus some of the numbers that are coming out of like CONAB and the Rosario Grain Exchange in Argentina. It just seems like USDA has a massive disconnect, still about a 500-million-plus-bushel difference with where CONAB came out on Thursday versus where the USDA came out for the Brazil bean crop.”

Nellinger says the difference in estimates is also leaving traders confused.

“It is going to have a direct influence, no matter what the crop size is on our exports. I think there’s still some unknowns out there as far as what the ultimate crop size is in the Southern Hemisphere,” says Nellinger.

What Now?

Now that USDA’s April report and the Prospective Plantings report are both out of the way, Nellinger says the market will shift its focus to planting and the weather forecast in the U.S. Currently, it’s a story of the East versus the West, with dry conditions continuing to consume the areas west of the Mississippi. In the east, more rain means not as much planting is underway.

“It was this way last year, as well,” says Nellinger. “You look at the drought map that came out this week, even though there were some decent rains around there in the western Corn Belt, it’s still a worse setup at this point in the calendar than what we had in 2012. I’m not saying we’re going to have a repeat of the 2012 growing season weather, but there needs to be some regular rainfall in that western Corn Belt during the growing season.”

Nellinger says the dry weather will initially be a bearish factor for the grain markets due to the quick planting pace, but he says there’s a tremendous amount of uncertainty about how the weather could shift during the growing season.

“Just add on about the wheat. We’re going to need some rain in the Black Sea area and in Russia, and we’re going to need rain in the Southern Plains to get the wheat crop worldwide across the finish line,” says Nellinger. “So, there’s still some question there. And then when you look at how planting is going and this line of what La Nina will mean to summer temperatures and rainfall, especially the western Corn Belt. There’s just a tremendous amount of uncertainty going forward.”

There's a Possibility USDA's Prospective Plantings Report Next Week Produces a Surprise in Corn

Fri, 22 Mar 2024 20:02:27 GMT

UDSA’s 2023 Prospective Plantings report was a shock to them market last year, with USDA showing farmers intended to plant nearly 92 million acres of corn. While the June 30 survey came in even higher, at 94 million acres of corn, the expectation is farmers will plant fewer corn acres in 2024; however, anything is possible in the report, analysts say.

“I just have kind of come to expect the unexpected in this report,” says John Payne of hEDGEpoint Global. “This is one that you can get the wild card. It wouldn’t shock me to see USDA surprise us a little bit here and keep the acreage up.”

The March Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor, a survey of nearly 70 ag economists from across the country, found nearly 80% of those surveyed say soybeans pencils better than corn this year. But even with those economics, economists increased their corn acreage projections slightly from last month.

Economists increased their corn acreage projection slightly this month, to 92.12 million acres. That’s up from the 91.47 million in February. The soybean acreage projection declined from 86.62 million to 86.41 million.

“As we think about plantings here in the united states, we’re certainly seeing maybe an early spring that’s allowed folks to get more fertilizer on more anhydrous on than we would have thought earlier. Perhaps that’s going to increase corn acreage relative to what we’ve thought in the past,” says Scott Brown, an ag economist with the University of Missouri who helps author the Monthly Monitor.

Payne says the anecdotal evidence points toward more soybean acres, but if history repeats itself, and the weather cooperates, corn acres could compete with last year’s levels.

“Farmers here like plant corn us and at this point, given the early spring we’ve had, I think you could see corn acres somewhere close to where they were a year ago,” says Payne.

So, what does the trade have baked in to the market at this point?

“The trade is definitely expecting that we’re going to see less corn acres planted than last year,” says Naomi Blohm, senior market adviser, Total Farm Marketing by Stewart Peterson. “The biggest takeaway is that there’s going to be some ebb and flow throughout with what comes on the report. But the big picture, keep in mind, is that even if we plant 3 million less acres of corn than last year, we’re still going to be battling 2 billion bushel carryout into the next growing season. So, that might keep the market prices suppressed in the short-term.”

Blohm says in order for prices to rally significantly, something else will need to happen on the supply side.

“We’re going to need something to happen with Brazil weather or some kind of a summer weather issue here in the United States later on in the summer,” says Blohm.

Recap of the 2023 Prospective Plantings Report

The 2023 Prospective Plantings report showed farmers intended to increase their corn acreage. USDA’s survey showed farmers who intended to plant nearly 92 million acres of corn, which is more than 1 million acres higher than pre-report estimates and a 3.42 million acre jump from 2022.

USDA’s March plantings report shows:

Corn: 91.9 million, up 4% from 2022
Soybeans: 87.51 million, up slightly from 2022
All Wheat: 49.9 million, up 9% from 2022
Cotton: 11.3 million, down 18% from 2022

2023 Crop Production Déjà Vu? USDA's Latest Report Shows Brazil's Crop Isn't A Disaster, Despite Crippling Drought Early On

Fri, 08 Mar 2024 21:16:38 GMT

Despite drought and weather concerns to finish 2023, South America is still sitting on a big crop. USDA’s latest WASDE report released on Friday made minor revisions to the South American crop production estimates, and even raised the corn production estimate in Argentina.

In the March WASDE report, USDA made the following revisions:

Cut Brazil’s soybean production estimate by 1 million metric ton (mmt) to 155 mmt.
No changes to the Brazilian corn crop estimate of 124 mmt.
No changes to Argentina’s soybean production estimate of 50 mmt.
Raised Argentina’s corn crop estimate by 1 mmt to 56 mmt.

The biggest controversy was the fact USDA didn’t make larger cuts to the Brazil soybean production estimate, as the 1 mmt drop was less than what the trade expected.

“As you look at this particular report, those were the only numbers that people were really watching,” says Mike North of Ever.Ag “So, for them to not make a change, I think it was kind of upsetting the applecart in terms of expectations, but likely more to come.”

North says boots on the ground estimates suggest there’s more room for cuts, with North estimating another 4 mmt to 5 mmt could be trimmed from Brazil’s soybean estimate.

“I think the question the market is still trying to answer is, what extra growth do we maybe have to add to Argentina? And then how do we balance an Argentine crop that’s twice the size of last year against a less than record crop coming out of Brazil,” says North.

Not every private firm thinks the crop in Brazil is getting smaller. StoneX Group released its recent survey from Brazil, raising its forecast for Brazil’s 2023-2024 soybean crop by 1.5mmt to 151.5 mmt. That’s still lower than USDA’s current estimate for Brazil soybeans of 155 mmt.

“It’s the old story with these grains now. They have the genetics. They just wait for the rains, and while they’re waiting, the crops look terrible. When they get two inches of rain, all of a sudden, they’ve got a pretty good crop, and they’ve had decent rain since then,” says Mark Gold of StoneX Group. “So, there’s no reason to think that they’re not going to wind up with a pretty good crop. Is it 155 [mmt] or 156 [mmt]? I don’t think so. I think we’re much closer to 150 mmt or 151 mmt than anything else. But we’ll see where we go.”

Brazil exported 6.610 mmt of soybeans during February, according to official government data. That was up 3.755 mmt (118%) from January and 1.593 mmt (31.8%) more than last year given the rapid soybean harvest.

U.S. and World Ending Stocks

USDA made no change to the U.S. ending stocks figure, except for wheat. North says exports from the Black Sea region have been remarkable, especially from Ukraine.

“That becomes the one-two punch,” North says. “Now you add in these extra bushels coming out of South America as they’ve gotten the good weather Mark alluded to, and you walk into another U.S. growing season. Balance sheets, globally, look really, really full and that ultimately sets the stage for this lower market that we’ve been in and really kind of justifies market action over these last couple of months, as we’ve really put to bed the South American story.”

North says when you add the extra layer of additional Ukrainian volume, along with 5 mmt of wheat coming out of Russia in the next marketing year, it’s another layer in the overall global grain supply glut story.

“There’s going to be ample supplies of grain available in the world market,” North says.

China Cancels Wheat Purchase, Yet Wheat Seems Unfazed

USDA pointed to poor exports in the latest WASDE report, but there’s another piece of bad news for the wheat market this week. On Friday, USDA reported a SRW sales cancellation from China of 110,000 metric tons during the 2023/2024 marketing year, which marked the second straight day of cancellations.

“Isn’t it interesting that we had two cancellations, one on Thursday and one on Friday, but the wheat market, as we sit right now, is looking at a key reversal and it made a contract low overnight,” Gold says. “So, this market rejected bad news, if we see this higher close, and I believe the markets may have certainly seen the bottom in here.”

He says now the key is what the funds do, as the funds still hold short positions.

“If we can just get the funds to pull the trigger and come cover some of these massive short positions, which they started to last week in the corn - they covered about 50,000 corn - but there’s a lot more yet to come and that can lead us to some higher prices,” Gold says.

What Spurs the Funds to Exit the Short Positions?

As Gold mentioned, the funds are extremely short. So, what will it take to get the funds to exit those positions? North says in today’s day and age, when the geopolitical events continue to surprise the world, there are several things that could cause the funds to change and bring some bullish excitement back into the market.

“It could very well be some of this strong job growth that we continue to show, and some of the ultimate strength in the economy, which raises this inflation story some more and maybe starts bringing them back into the mix to use commodities as the inflation play,” North says. “But I think the one bandwagon everybody is hoping on is weather.”

North says the current drought map shows the U.S. remains dry.

“I think there’s going to be some patience around that story, given the way the crop performed last year following a very hot and dry June,” North says. “And so it’s an unknown factor right now. But it’s going to take something large, it’s going to take something unknown, something like weather, to develop further and become a real threat.”

A Snapshot of USDA's Surprising January Report in 10 Charts

Fri, 12 Jan 2024 20:36:13 GMT

USDA’s final crop production report for the 2023 year shocked the market. Not only did the U.S. grow a record corn crop, but USDA also increased its soybean yield estimate for 2023. Cotton yields, however, plummeted in 2023 with cotton production dropping to the lowest in a decade.

With larger-than-expected yield revisions to both corn and soybeans, it leaves one burning question: Which states grew such big yields? USDA-NASS breaks down the numbers in a series of charts and maps to help show which areas saw the biggest yield and production changes.

USDA raised the national corn yield to 177. 3 bu. per acre in the January report, which is a new national record yield. It’s also a big jump from November, when USDA had the national yield penciled at 174.9 bu. per acre. When you look how yields changed year-over-year, you can see the Plains and the Mid-South saw big yield improvements from the 2022 growing season.

With a new record national yield in 2023, the trendline chart shows just how much yields have improved over time.

With a new national record yield, USDA also shows corn production hit a record high in 2023, at 15.3 billion bushels.

USDA also surprised traders with the increase in the soybean yield estimate. USDA raised it’s soybean yield forecast for the 2023 crop to 50.6 bu per acre, which was up from the 49.9 bu. per acre forecast in November.

While the 2023 yield of 50.6 bu. per acre isn’t a record yield, it’s still higher than 2022’s final yield of 49.6 bu. per acre.

USDA pegs 2023 soybean production at 4.16 billion bushels. That’s lower than what growers produced in 2022.

Drought and prolonged heat really took a toll on cotton yields across the U.S. this year. Texas saw the biggest yield drop year-over-year, followed by Florida and California.

With a projected cotton yield of 845 pounds per acre, USDA’s 2023 cotton yield estimate is a sharp drop from the 953 pounds per acre the U.S. saw in 2022. The 2023 final cotton yield figure from USDA is also higher than 2021.

With such a sharp drop in yield, as well as abandoned acres in West Texas, U.S. cotton production fell to the lowest in a decade this year.

Corn and Soybean Prices Tank After USDA Report Makes Surprising Revisions to Yield

Fri, 12 Jan 2024 19:41:03 GMT

USDA’s final look at crop production for 2023 caught the commodity markets by surprise. The agency increased the final yield estimates for both corn and soybeans, and as a result, prices plummeted on Friday.

The big news in the report was the revisions to yield. USDA raised the national corn yield to 177. 3 bu. per acre in the January report, which is a new national record yield. It’s also a big jump from November, when USDA had the national yield penciled at 174.9 bu. per acre.

USDA also cut harvested acreage, but with the big increase in production, USDA pegs the 2023 corn production figure of 15.34 billion bushels.

The increases to yield and production were larger than what the trade expected, which caused corn prices to sink.

“We got a lot of criticism for our estimate all summer long being too high. And we ended up too low,” says Arlan Suderman of StoneX Group. “This crop, I’m just really impressed with, not just the genetics of it, but farmers with their technology, the seed placement, just the management of it. They are getting better and better at withstanding the stresses and it just makes you wonder how good this crop might have been had we not had the stresses we had.”

USDA also increased demand, which helped offset a portion of the increased yield. USDA increased feed use by 25 million bushels. The agency also increased ethanol use by 50 million bushels.

“Those revisions were pretty much in line with what the trade expected,” says Jim McCormmick of AgMarket.net. “And I guess it’s a good thing because without those upward revisions of demand, this carryout would have really exploded to the upside. And I think the market could’ve had an even worse negative reaction than it’s currently having.”

Surprise in Soybeans

USDA also surprised traders with the increase in the soybean yield estimate. USDA raised it’s soybean yield forecast for the 2023 crop to 50.6 bu per acre, which was up from the 49.9 bu. per acre forecast in November. Soybean production is now pegged at 4.16 billion bushels.

Suderman says these yield increases are something farmers should note, especially with the current debate on how much of an impact weather will have on Brazil’s crop that’s currently in the ground.

“The same genetics we plant here we plant in South America as well, essentially, so we need to look at South America in that same light,” Suderman says. “This crop really did well, especially in eastern Midwest. We saw some really good yields from corn and soybeans this year. And some of that may have been some of the benefits from the smoke coming from the Canadian fires. That’s one of the theories now that was sulfur and some other positive effects were coming from that smoke.”

Cuts to Brazil

After drought impacted Brazil’s crop for much of the growing season, USDA cut its soybean forecast in Brazil to 157 million metric tons. That’s down from the 161 million metric tons forecast in the last report. USDA also trimmed its corn estimate for Brazil by 2 million metric tons.

“Traders were looking for bigger cuts,” McCormick says. “The rhetoric I think was even for bigger cuts and what the average straight guess was. So yeah, it was definitely a little bit disappointing. But time will tell where we’re at. Some of the modeling I’ve seen for the weather is that we are going to turn a little bit warmer and drier here in the middle part of January, and with this latest crop that has been planted, that could cause some problems to that crop and still shrink it. And of course, we still haven’t started planting safrinha corn crops. So the size of that crop is yet to be determined.”

Quarterly Grain Stocks

USDA’s revisions to the 2023 crop production numbers pushed the quarterly grain stock estimates higher and above trade expectations.

Corn stocks are forecast up 13% to 12.2 billion bushels. Soybeans were adjusted down 1% from December to 3 billion bushels.

Wheat supplies on December 1 were forecast to be up 8% from a year ago at 1.41 billion bushels.

USDA's December Reports Unwrap No Major Surprises, And Analysts Argue Corn Prices Are Stuck For Now

Fri, 08 Dec 2023 21:53:51 GMT

There wasn’t much excitement in Friday’s USDA reports. Despite weather concerns sprouting in Brazil, USDA didn’t make any major adjustments to the South American corn or soybean crop, but USDA did acknowledge the increased appetite for U.S. corn and wheat from China, as well as increased buys of corn from Mexico. Those recent reported sales prompted the agency to make minor cuts to U.S. ending stocks for both corn and wheat. Overall, analysts say it was a typical USDA report for December.

“This is probably the least important report of the 15 reports released during the year, we shouldn’t expect anything big,” says Jon Scheve, president of grain trading for Superior Feed. “I think our focus is now solely on weather in South America for the soybean crop.”

USDA trimmed its estimate for Brazil’s soybean crop, but left Brazil’s corn and Argentina’s corn projections unchanged. USDA’s December report now has the following projections penciled in:

Cut Brazil’s soybean estimate by 2 MMT from the November report to 161 MMT
Left Brazil’s corn production estimate at 129 MMT
Left Argentina’s corn production estimate unchanged at 55 MMT

Scheve thinks USDA’s decision to not make any major adjustments to the South American crop was due to timing.

“Basically from December 20 through January 20, that’ll be the biggest timeframe for South American weather for soybeans. Also, the exports will pick up for U.S. beans during that timeframe. So, if we’re going to see fireworks, it’s going to happen during that time, and especially depends on what the weather is like for that,” Scheve says.

He says the timeframe for possible fireworks in the corn market is even later.

“I don’t see any reason to worry about South American weather for corn until we get to April or May when that second crop goes into reproductive stage. And then maybe we can have fireworks for corn. But until that time, I just look at a farmer who wants to get $5 for corn in the U.S. So that’s going to be trouble for them to sell it. And I think the end users want to buy it at $4.50. So we’re probably stuck in a range somewhere around that $4.75 to $4.80 mark, up or down 20 cents, from there.”

Mike North, president of the producer division for Ever.Ag, agrees that USDA didn’t make any major adjustments due to the time of year.

“It is too early, and when you look at this time of the year, we often don’t make adjustments,” says North. “The fact that they lowered bean production by 2 million metric tons kind of falls in line with some of the boots on the ground analysis. Some are talking about the early weather maybe taking the cream off of the top for yield, especially in northern Brazil. But it really is too early to know. As we saw with our own soybeans this year, it’s way too early in the game to be destroying yield when we’re just getting them in the ground.”

Is the South American weather story a bigger issue for corn or for soybeans? Scheve says when you base it simply on timing, it’s soybeans.

“I think the weather first has to be a story for soybeans because that’s the first one that’s going to be affected. There could be a bit of an argument made that if the bean crop is delayed a little bit from its plantings that possibly that could push plantings back on the second corn crop which would then end up in the May dry season and maybe hurt the yield a little bit, but since their yields are already only 80 bu. per acre across the country in general, I don’t know that it’s going to be a substantial drop,” says Scheve.

The other thing to keep in mind, according to Scheve, is the scope of the growing area in South America.

“It’s a massive area. When you look at from the top of Mato Grosso to the bottom of Argentina, you’re talking about 2000 miles. Compare that to Fargo, North Dakota to Jackson, Mississippi, which is only 1200 miles. So, it’s massively big area, it’s spread out over a much bigger area. And the weather is way different across all of that area,” he says.

USDA Trims Ending Stocks

As Mexico and China ramp up buys of U.S. corn, it prompted USDA to cut its U.S. corn ending stocks estimate by 25 million bushels in the December report. China has also increased its purchases of U.S. wheat, which took 25 million bushels off the wheat balance sheet.

USDA’s updated look at U.S. ending stocks estimate shows:

Corn down 25 million bushels to 2.13 billion bushels.
Soybeans unchanged at 245 million bushels.
Wheat down 25 million bushels to 659 million bushels.

China continues to buy U.S. corn and wheat. USDA confirmed another purchase of soft red winter wheat from China, this sale totaling 4 million bushels. What’s behind the buys? Scheve says it goes back to concerns with their domestic wheat crop.

“I think it’s just a function of that they’ve had some poor quality around the world,” says Scheve. “They’re seeing an opportunity right here. They’ve seen some value on prices, and that’s giving them a quick opportunity to add a little bit into their storage.”

North thinks China is just one of several countries seeing some potential production issues with wheat.

“That short crop in China has what’s it’s definitely been what’s inspired him to come to the market. I think as you look elsewhere in the world, Australia has had some real issues with their wheat crop and downgraded a bunch of their soft red. We’ve got certainly available supplies and growing inventories here in the United States,” says North. “If I look to places like Argentina to try to fill in gaps, everybody’s still scratching their head waiting to see what the new president does with export tax. So, if I’m China, and I know I have a short crop, I’m going to try to get ahead of that. And for the U.S., this is a great opportunity right now, especially with the US dollar coming down 3% here over the last few weeks.”

What’s Next? USDA’s Big January Reports and Potential Fireworks

After USDA’s raised its U.S. corn yield forecast by nearly 2 bu. per acre in the November Crop Production Report , Scheve says the worst-case scenario for corn prices is if USDA increases the yield forecast again in the January reports. Based off conversations he’s having with producers, he thinks an increase in the national yield is a possibility for next month’s report.

“I think best-case scenario is that they don’t change the yield at all in January,” says Scheve. “I think the worst-case scenario is that they add another two to three bushels per acre to the national yield.”

Scheve says based on conversations he’s having with producers, the “better than expected” yield story played out again this fall.

“I’ve talked to people across the entire country, and everyone is absolutely surprised by their yields,” he says. “Most of them are all to the positive. I would say I had less than 10% of clients that were telling me that the yields were worse than they expected, and that was only if they were in kind of a middle of Nebraska to Sioux City area. That was the only area that kind of saw some really bad potential outside of Northeast Iowa.”

USDA’s January reports are scheduled to be released on Friday, January 12, 2024.

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USDA Makes Two Surprise Changes to Corn Yield and Demand In Its Latest Crop Production Report

Thu, 09 Nov 2023 22:44:50 GMT

In a surprise move for so late in the season, USDA raised its corn yield forecast by nearly 2 bu. per acre in the November Crop Production Report . With a larger crop currently being harvested across the U.S., it means estimated corn ending stocks is getting even bigger, but analysts say the increase wasn’t as big as it could have been since USDA also boosted demand.

USDA-NASS made adjustments across the board, upping the yield forecast for corn, soybeans and cotton in the November report.

Corn yield: 174.9 bu. per acre, up 1.9 bu. per acre from October
Soybean yield: 49.9 bu. per acre, up 0.3 bu. per acre from October
Cotton yield: 783 pounds per acre, up 16 pounds per acre from October

One of the biggest surprises in the November report was the large increase to corn yield, according to Matt Bennett of AgMarket.net.

“It’s not typical to see that kind of increase,” says Bennett. “In the past, especially whenever they got in the field in August, you’d hardly ever see something like that. Now that they’re in the field in September, I think that it’s going to be a little bit more prevalent at times.”

He says the other surprise was the increase in demand, which Bennett thinks cushioned some of the possible impact from such a large increase to production.

“As soon as I saw the 174.9 yield in corn, because that’s the number that catches your eye first and what you’re looking for, I thought we’d be down 20 cents in corn,” he says. “And then you see that carryout only goes from 2.111 billion bushels to 2.156 billion bushels, you realize it’s not as bad as it could have been.”

November 2023 Corn Yield Bushels and Percent Change from the Previous Year pic.twitter.com/GSD16pJV1R
— Jim McCormick (@jpmccormick3) November 9, 2023

USDA’s November report increased total corn demand by 125 million bushels, which included a 50-million-bushel revision to feed usage, and an increase of 25 million bushels to ethanol demand.

“That’s pretty interesting, though, to see them take yield up 2 bushels [per acre] and then see carryout grow by 45 million bushels. Quite frankly, I would have never said those two things would go hand-in-hand, especially with some of the demand concerns that are still lingering.”

November 2023 Corn Yield United States pic.twitter.com/FkS8d8lxlO
— Jim McCormick (@jpmccormick3) November 9, 2023

Bennett says even though the increase in demand helped offset the bigger crop, the 2.156 billion bushels ending stock estimate is a nearly 50% increase in just a year. He says producers need to keep in mind that if Mother Nature brings favorable weather during the growing season next year, it’s possible that corn ending stocks could climb into the 3-billion-bushel range.

The Story in Soybeans

The November report was less of a story for soybeans. While USDA made a slight increase to yield, there wasn’t much change on the demand side of the balance sheet. However, with the increase in yield, it did increase the soybean ending stocks estimate to 245 million bushels.

November 2023 Soybean Yield pic.twitter.com/duoNBcj9dZ
— Jim McCormick (@jpmccormick3) November 9, 2023

“Revising the 220 [million bushels] carry to 245 is still extremely tight, but bottom line is when you see the export sales that were posted this morning, they were massive. We’re talking 1.7 million tons to China and unknown destinations, which is likely China. And so China’s back, and I think it’s because they’re a little bit nervous about what’s going on in South America.”

Bennett says while the 2023 U.S. crop production story isn’t over, and there’s still a chance USDA could also raise its soybean yield forecast in the January report, the market is currently focused on South American weather.

“Without the weather influence from South America, I’d be pretty bearish. I don’t like being bearish, but I just would be when you’re looking at world stocks of 115 million metric tonnes. That’s just a lot of beans. But, let’s say you take 10 million metric ton or even 20 million metric tons out of production with Brazil, if they stay in this just ridiculous weather pattern that they’re in, there’s no question that the bean market could be quite dynamic moving forward,” says Bennett.

He says AgMarket.net is encouraging producers to lock in a worst-case scenario for prices, while leaving the upside open on a few bushels. That way if a rally takes place, producers can take advantage of it.

“Because if this weather straightens out as a lot of times it does for Brazil, then there’s no question that downside could be pretty wild as well,” he adds.