U.S. Farm Report

USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden Says High-Level Washington Meeting Puts Fertilizer Industry on the Spot

Fri, 17 Apr 2026 20:10:01 GMT

The fertilizer market has been a growing point of tension in agriculture for years, but USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden says recent meetings in Washington marked a more direct and wide-ranging confrontation between federal officials and the companies that dominate input supply. Those discussions, he says, were not limited to USDA alone but included a broader slice of the administration’s economic leadership, signaling how central fertilizer costs have become to the national conversation on food production and inflation.

Vaden says cabinet-level officials from the Department of Commerce and the U.S. Trade Representative were present, alongside USDA leadership and state agriculture commissioners from Iowa and Georgia. Fertilizer executives were also in the room, making the meeting a rare setting where policy makers, regulators and industry leaders sat together to address pricing, supply constraints and long-term market structure.

He says the purpose was not simply informational, but confrontational in the sense of putting real-world farm impacts directly in front of industry decision-makers.

“It was an opportunity for those other cabinet officials to hear from the fertilizer company executives,” Vaden says, “and for those fertilizer company executives to hear from the secretary and me, as well as our two state counterparts who joined, about the real harm that farmers are facing from uncertainty in the market and, equally as importantly, years of elevated prices.”

Vaden says what often gets lost outside agriculture is that the current fertilizer environment is not a short-term disruption, but the continuation of a multi-year pricing trend that has reshaped farm budgets.

“For people who don’t pay attention to ag every day like your listeners do, they may think this fertilizer thing came out of nowhere,” Vaden says. “But American farmers know that we’re on year five or more of elevated prices for fertilizer, and questions about adequate supply of all fertilizer types.”

He adds that the timing of the discussions is critical, as global geopolitical tensions are only adding pressure to already strained markets.

“So I see this as an opportunity now that the attention of everyone is focused on fertilizer, not just agriculture, to begin to solve the problem that has taken years to develop and that has been exacerbated by the current situation in the Middle East,” Vaden says. “So that we don’t find ourselves in another long-term question about fertilizer supply going forward.”

USDA Pushes Industry: Bring Projects Forward or Explain the Bottlenecks

As discussions continue with fertilizer companies, Vaden says USDA is shifting the conversation from general concern to specific accountability. Rather than broad discussions about market conditions, he says officials are now asking companies to identify concrete projects that could increase supply and to explain why those investments have not yet materialized.

This approach, he says, reflects a broader strategy inside the department to move beyond analysis and toward action, particularly in areas where supply constraints have persisted for years without meaningful change.

In meetings held both jointly and separately with industry leaders, Vaden says USDA has been consistent in its message to fertilizer companies.

“We are saying the same thing to everyone who comes before the department,” Vaden says. “Be a part of the solution, don’t be a part of the problem.”

He says that includes detailed questions about whether expansion projects are already in development but stalled due to permitting delays, regulatory barriers or capital constraints. In some cases, he says, USDA is asking companies to identify where federal or state action could realistically speed up timelines.

“We are asking them what projects they have in the pipeline that they can bring on board to create new fertilizer supplies, hopefully here domestically, but if necessary, near-shoring overseas,” Vaden says. “And are there steps that we can take to make those projects move faster? Are there permits that are held up? Are there states or localities that are holding up their expansions? Are there investments that they are looking for with regard to needing capital to be able to expand their production capacity?”

He adds the department is not approaching the issue passively, but actively pressing for answers.

“We’re asking as many questions as we are making declarative statements, and we’re trying to see what levers we can pull to get more supply on the market,” Vaden says.

Market Concentration at Center of USDA Concerns

Beyond supply timelines and permitting issues, Vaden says one of the core structural concerns in fertilizer markets is the level of consolidation, particularly in phosphate production where a small number of companies control a dominant share of supply.

He says that level of concentration raises fundamental questions about how prices are formed and whether farmers are receiving signals that reflect true market conditions.

With that in mind, Vaden says USDA is focusing heavily on competition and price discovery as part of its broader review of input markets.

“With one of our fertilizer markets, there are two companies that control 90% market share,” Vaden says. “Anybody, I don’t care whether it’s fertilizer or what any other commodity you want to talk about, if there are only two major players, how can anyone be sure that the price you are paying reflects actual market conditions?”

He says the issue is not simply about individual price spikes, but about whether enough competition exists to keep pricing behavior transparent and responsive.

“In order to have adequate price discovery in a market, you need multiple players,” Vaden says.

That concern, he adds, is one of the reasons fertilizer investigations already underway by federal agencies predate recent geopolitical disruptions and continue to expand.

Vaden Details Heated Meeting With Mosaic: “A Different Tune in My Conference Room”

Among the most pointed parts of Vaden’s interview are his comments about a recent face-to-face meeting with Mosaic, one of the most influential players in the phosphate fertilizer market. He says the discussion, held in his conference room just this week, was direct and, at times, uncomfortable, focusing heavily on production decisions, capacity investment and the company’s role in a highly concentrated global market.

Vaden says he challenged Mosaic on why additional production capacity has not been brought online in the United States over a long period of time, and what barriers the company believes are preventing expansion.

He says he left the meeting with clear expectations for follow-up information from the company, describing it as an assignment rather than a casual discussion.

“I gave them a homework assignment,” Vaden says. “I told them what I expected to see, and I hope that they will get back to me as soon as possible.”

But what stood out most to him, he says, was not just what was said in the room, but how it contrasted with the company’s public messaging.

So disappointed in this response, @MosaicCompany, especially as you decide to idle two fertilizer production facilities, removing 1 MMT of supply from the world market. 🚨

Our Great President and this Administration have our farmers' backs. 💪🌾

Any sleight of hand will not be… https://t.co/GTCxcBQNgi
— Secretary Brooke Rollins (@SecRollins) April 13, 2026

In his view, there was a noticeable difference between internal discussions and external communications, particularly on social media, where fertilizer policy debates have increasingly played out in public.

“And I will say, without being able to go into details, when they were in my office, they were singing a slightly different tune than they were signing on Twitter responding to the president’s Truth Social message that you noted,” Vaden says.

He uses that contrast to underscore what he sees as a broader disconnect between industry messaging and the realities USDA believes farmers are facing.

“We need more supply, we need answers, your company hasn’t provided either of those two things,” Vaden says. “It’s about time that you did.”

Industry Responses, Trade Policy Pressure and the Mosaic Question

While Vaden applies pressure to Mosaic, he notes that not all fertilizer companies are taking the same stance on trade policy and tariffs. He points specifically to Nutrien, which he says has indicated support for removing certain trade enforcement measures.

“I was very happy after I met with the Nutrien CEO that they came out and announced we don’t need this CVD order anymore,” Vaden says.

By contrast, he says Mosaic’s position on countervailing duties and phosphate trade enforcement remains unresolved, and that broader policy decisions are now effectively waiting on the company’s response.

He characterizes the situation as fluid but heavily dependent on industry input.

“Right now the question is in Mosaic’s court, if you will,” Vaden says. “And we’re waiting for an answer from them.”

He adds that regulatory or executive action is unlikely to be taken in a vacuum while negotiations and responses are still unfolding.

“One thing that I know as a lawyer is that there’s a whole lot more possible if you have consent of the parties than if you don’t,” Vaden says. “With consent, nearly all things are possible.”

Investigations Expand as USDA Seeks Farmer-Reported Data

Alongside industry meetings, Vaden says USDA is working with the Department of Justice and Federal Trade Commission on ongoing fertilizer market investigations, with a particular focus on pricing behavior and market transparency.

He says one challenge is the nature of pricing information itself, which often reaches farmers through informal channels and can change quickly.

“We’re asking questions and waiting for answers, and we need farmers’ help as part of our question asking,” Vaden says.

He describes a pattern many farmers have reported directly to USDA, where fertilizer prices are quoted in a way that encourages immediate purchase rather than delayed buying.

“I know in my own family’s operation that you get phone calls, and those phone calls tell you ‘Here’s what the price is now, and if you wait, here’s what the price will be later,’” Vaden says. “And that later price is never lower than the price that it is now.”

To address that, he says USDA is working on a confidential reporting system designed to protect farmer identity while improving data quality for investigators.

“If they trust us with their information, if they trust us with the facts that they have, they’ll be able to remain anonymous,” Vaden says. “And the companies under investigation will not know who shared what data with us.”

“This Has Been Going On for Too Long”

Vaden closes by emphasizing that fertilizer prices and supply constraints are not a new challenge for agriculture, but an entrenched issue that has persisted through multiple years and market cycles.

He says the administration is trying to shift both short-term supply conditions and long-term structural dynamics at the same time, adding that USDA’s goal is not temporary relief, but sustained changes in supply, competition and pricing stability.

“We are focused on getting new supplies here now, and not just now, but next year and the year after that and the years after that,” Vaden says. “So that we can have guaranteed new supplies over the long term.”

Vaden’s Message to Farmers: “We’re Saying the Same Thing in Public and in Private”

At the end of the conversation, Vaden returned to what he described as the central audience for everything USDA is doing on fertilizer: farmers themselves. He acknowledged frustration is not just growing, but it has become a defining sentiment across much of farm country as input costs remain elevated and supply questions persist year after year.

He emphasized USDA’s posture is not different depending on the room or the audience, whether speaking with industry executives, other federal agencies, or producers themselves.

“I want farmers to know that when I am sitting with representatives of other cabinet departments or when I am sitting with big fertilizer CEOs, I am saying the same thing in private that you hear me saying in public,” Vaden says. “I do not change my tune. I may be slightly more polite, but I am equally as direct in terms of telling them what I think the situation is.”

Vaden says that directness is rooted in what he believes farmers are already experiencing on the ground, particularly when it comes to fertilizer pricing volatility and uncertainty in purchasing decisions. He says producers are not misreading the situation — they are responding to real, long-running pressures.

He also acknowledges the emotional toll on producers is part of the reality USDA is hearing more frequently.

“I especially communicate to them that farmers have gone from exasperation to anger with the situation that we have now,” Vaden says. “They are not wrong to be feeling those emotions because they understand that this is not a new situation.”

Looking ahead, Vaden says USDA’s goal is not just to address short-term pricing spikes, but to change the underlying conditions that have kept fertilizer costs elevated for years. That includes expanding supply, increasing competition and improving long-term stability in input markets.

“This is an issue that has bedeviled American agriculture for at least five years, and it is time that it stopped,” Vaden says.

Water Fight With Mexico Leaves South Texas Farmer Unable to Plant Half His Acres

Mon, 22 Dec 2025 19:37:23 GMT

For South Texas farmers, the ongoing water dispute between the United States and Mexico isn’t an abstract policy issue. It’s a crisis that has reshaped planting decisions, reduced production and injected deep uncertainty into every growing season along the Rio Grande.

Brian Jones, a South Texas farmer, says years of shorted water deliveries under the 1944 Water Treaty have forced him and many of his neighbors to dramatically scale back their operations. What once was a fully irrigated farming system has turned into a constant struggle to stretch limited water supplies across fewer acres.

“I believe it really starts to reach a crescendo in the 2023 crop year,” Jones says. “For 2024 and 2025, basically I’m only able to plant half of my farm because we don’t have enough water.”

Jones says the water shortages are not the result of drought alone, but of Mexico failing to live up to its treaty obligations. Under the 1944 agreement, Mexico is required to deliver water to the United States through the Rio Grande basin. However, U.S. officials and South Texas producers argue those deliveries have fallen well short in recent years.

“That’s exactly right,” Jones says, confirming that he has been unable to plant roughly half of his acres. “Going from fully irrigated to basically only being able to plant half the farm — and not even having full irrigation for that half — has been quite a struggle over the last couple of years.”

The reduced water supply has forced farmers to make hard decisions, prioritizing which crops and fields can survive with limited irrigation. Jones says even the acres that do get planted are often under-irrigated, increasing risk and lowering yield potential.

“Mexico has willfully held back water that they had,” Jones says. “That puts us in a huge shortfall.”

Hope on the Horizon?

Earlier this month, USDA announced it had reached an understanding with Mexico to release 202,000 acre-feet of water to the U.S., following heightened pressure from the Trump administration — including threats of tariffs if Mexico failed to comply. The announcement marked the most significant movement on the issue in years. But for growers on the ground, the news has been met with cautious optimism.

“I would say I’m both hopeful and skeptical,” Jones says. “I’m hopeful because President Trump and his administration really take the bull by the horns on this and bring the fight to Mexico.”

Jones says farmers in South Texas have long felt ignored as water shortages worsened, and he credits the current administration for taking a more aggressive stance.

“Under the previous administration, it’s like talking to a brick wall,” he says. “Under this administration, President Trump and Secretary Rollins really pick up the club and use it to bring Mexico to the table.”

Despite the agreement, Jones says trust remains an issue. Years of unmet commitments have made farmers wary of celebrating until water is actually flowing into the Rio Grande and irrigation systems.

“On the other hand, I’m still skeptical because Mexico has willfully withheld the water for a number of years,” Jones says. “Until it really starts flowing and they meet that full agreement of the 202,000 acre-feet, we’re still skeptical.”

Water Releases Reported to Start Immediately

According to Jones, Mexico indicates water releases should begin immediately, though geography and infrastructure mean the impact is not instantaneous for South Texas farmers.

“It should start this week,” he says. “It takes about three to four days for the water, once they release it in the lower parts of Mexico, to reach the Rio Grande. Hopefully by now, we start seeing that flow.”

Beyond the immediate relief, Jones says the water dispute highlights deeper concerns about fairness and competition. He believes the issue should be addressed in broader trade discussions, particularly as the U.S. reviews the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).

“We actually hope it is a point of contention,” Jones says. “Not only is Mexico withholding water, they’re using that water to grow products we normally grow here in South Texas and compete directly in our marketing window. That creates a trade imbalance.”

Water Issue Could Be at the Center of USCMA Review

Jones says Texas lawmakers and agricultural groups are pushing to bring the issue into USMCA negotiations, arguing water compliance should carry real consequences.

“We’re hoping to use USMCA as a tool to put some punitive measures and some teeth into the water-sharing agreement,” he says.

Planting Decisions Uncertain

As planting season approaches, uncertainty remains front and center. Jones says decisions for the 2025 crop year will hinge almost entirely on whether Mexico follows through on its promises — and how quickly water arrives.

“We’re about 45 days from corn planting here in South Texas,” he says. “I’ll definitely get all my corn in, then switch over to milo. Cotton is the big question mark.”

Cotton planting typically begins in mid-March, leaving little margin for error if water deliveries fall behind schedule.

“All the details are supposed to be out by January 31, and they’re guaranteeing all that water by the end of March,” Jones says. “By early- to mid-March, we should know where they stand on deliveries, and that will shape how I plant this upcoming year.”

For now, Jones and other South Texas farmers are watching river levels, weather forecasts and diplomatic negotiations with equal intensity — hoping that this time, the water fight turns into real relief on the ground.

Moment of Truth: The Louisiana Farmer Who Captured Trump's Ear, Put Human Face on Ag Crisis

Fri, 19 Dec 2025 19:29:01 GMT

Rice country is hurting, badly.

Prices have collapsed to levels not seen in four decades, while production costs climb beyond $1,000 an acre. According to the American Farm Bureau Federation, rice farmers are projected to lose more than $360 per acre this year. For many operations, that kind of math pushes losses deeper into the red and pushes tough decisions closer to reality.

That financial pressure was front and center at the White House last week as President Donald Trump unveiled his Farmer Bridge Payments, but what captured national attention wasn’t just policy — it was a farmer.

Her words, delivered candidly and unscripted on live television, put a human face on the crisis gripping America’s rice farms and mills.

That producer is Meryl Kennedy.

A Family Business Rooted in Rice

Kennedy is the youngest of four daughters, carrying forward a family operation that stretches back nearly six decades. Her father began farming rice in the late 1960s, and over time the family expanded beyond production into milling and value-added markets. That vertical integration gives Kennedy a front-row view of how price volatility affects not just growers, but entire supply chains.

“So I’m actually second generation,” Kennedy says. “My father started as a farmer back in the late 1960s, and we continue to take rice from the farm to a finished product today.”

After returning home from college, Kennedy helped oversee the startup of the family’s rice mill in 2012. The mill steadily grew, sourcing rice from roughly 60 farm families who relied on the operation as a stable market outlet. For those growers, the health of the mill is closely tied to the health of the farm economy.

“We actually mill rice, distribute it to many large companies throughout the U.S. and internationally,” Kennedy says. “But then my sisters and I have our own brand called Four Sisters that we launch about five years ago.”

As president and CEO of Kennedy Rice Mill and co-founder of Four Sisters Rice, Kennedy balances brand development, export logistics and farmer relationships. That role places her at the intersection of domestic agriculture and global trade, a perspective that proved pivotal when she was invited to Washington.

An Unexpected Moment in the Spotlight

Kennedy was one of eight farmers invited to participate in the White House roundtable on Dec. 8. Like many producers attending policy discussions, she expected a private conversation focused on data and feedback. What she did not know until moments before entering the room is that the discussion will be broadcast live.

“And my sisters and I, because there are four of us — I’m the youngest of four daughters — started our own rice brand a few years ago to just tell the story of American agriculture that hadn’t really been told before,” Kennedy told Trump and the White House Cabinet members who attended the farmer roundtable that day. “But I wish I was here under better terms.”

As the conversation turned to the financial outlook for rice, Kennedy did not sugarcoat the situation. Her remarks reflect what growers have been telling lenders and suppliers for months: Margins are gone, and losses are mounting.

“I know that prices right now are the lowest they’ve been in over 40 years, so we’re going to struggle,” she continued. “We’re going to max out on our payments probably, so that’s something that I know those in Congress can potentially help us with to change.”

Kennedy says the magnitude of the moment did not fully register until after the cameras are rolling. Sitting beside the president, she realized she was speaking not just for her own operation, but for growers across the country.

“In fact, it still seems like it is a dream, I’m going to be honest with you,” she says. “At the beginning of this year, I had a feeling that it was going to be a very difficult year. But it really wasn’t until midway through the year that we just saw a drastic drop in prices that has continued month after month.”

Farmers Asked Her to Speak Up

Kennedy says her decision to engage directly with the administration was driven by the growers who supply her mill. As conditions worsen, those farmers began urging her to use her industry position to push for action.

“And so it really is my farmers urging me a month ago to write a letter to the president,” she says. “To explain the situation to him, to urge him to help our farmers.”

That outreach, Kennedy says, marked a turning point. What began as a letter quickly became a national conversation.

“We wrote that letter, and look what the president does,” she says. “He responded.”

Kennedy explains the collapse in rice prices cannot be understood without looking beyond U.S. borders. Rice, she notes, is not just another commodity; it is a staple food for much of the world, making global market dynamics especially complex.

“Rice is a global commodity. It is the means of survival for most of the planet on a daily basis,” she says. “I truly mean it that rice is more of a currency than it is a commodity.”

While the U.S. ranks fifth in the world for rice exports, Kennedy says heavy subsidization and overproduction by major exporting nations distort markets and undermine U.S. competitiveness.

“And what has been happening is that really since COVID, there’s been truly an overproduction,” she says. “Then we over-subsidize in these nations and then dump rice globally across the world.”

A Candid Exchange With a Call to Action

That backdrop set the stage for one of the most striking moments of the roundtable, as Kennedy directly addressed concerns about dumping and unfair trade practices. The exchange unfolded live, capturing the attention of producers watching from home.

“And we do believe that countries are dumping rice into this country today,” Kennedy said during the roundtable at the White House. “We’ve never seen imports this great.”

When pressed for specifics, she named the countries she believes are contributing to the problem.

“India, Thailand, even China into Puerto Rico,” she said. “Puerto Rico used to be one of the largest markets for U.S. rice. We haven’t shipped rice into Puerto Rico in years.”

As Kennedy listed off the countries, Trump turned to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and asked him to write the countries down. Kennedy said the moment was monumental.

“None of it is scripted,” she says. “He really called me to action, and I responded.”

“When he turns to Secretary Bessent and asks him to write these countries down, it really is a powerful moment,” she adds. “It’s a moment I’ll never forget.”

Aid Helps — But It’s Not Enough

The roundtable featuring farmers on Dec. 8 was intended to announce Farmer Bridge Assistance Payment Program, for which USDA is expected to release payment rates next week. Ahead of that official announcement, University of Arkansas economists estimate rice payments could approach $115 per acre, though statutory payment caps will limit the amount many farmers actually receive.

“You know, I’ve seen some other figures kind of siding more like $50, considering that $155,000 payment cap,” says Mollie Buckler, CEO of U.S. Rice Producers. “While I think it will help some farmers, this is not putting huge profits in their pockets.”

Buckler says the assistance might keep some producers afloat short-term, but it does not address the underlying market imbalance. Without structural changes, she warns, the industry will continue to contract.

“Absolutely,” Buckler says when asked if farmers could be forced out of business. “Possibly even up to a quarter of farmers having to make tough decisions.”

Pressing Trump to Love Rice

Despite the seriousness of the discussion, Kennedy’s exchange with Trump also included a lighter moment that resonated with viewers. The humor underscores a broader effort to build demand for U.S.-grown rice.

“And you love rice, right?” the president asked.

“I love rice,” Kennedy replied. “I’m going to get you to love rice too. The next time, you’re not going to have a button for a Coke, you’re going to have a button for rice.”

It was another moment that stole the spotlight, as Kennedy’s quick-witted response garnered laughs. Kennedy says she even surprised herself in that moment.

“It just came out,” she says. “I encourage everyone that doesn’t eat rice on a daily basis to think about making rice part of your diet.”

A Voice for Farmers

For Kennedy, the experience reinforces the importance of connecting consumers with the people behind their food. She says telling that story is now more crucial than ever as farm families navigate financial uncertainty.

“This has given me a voice to encourage people to think about where their food comes from,” she says. “To think about supporting American farmers.”

As rice producers confront one of the toughest years in decades, Kennedy’s message reflects a broader industry plea for fair trade, market transparency and a future where family farms can continue growing a crop that feeds the world.

Fertilizer Prices Under Fire: Monopoly or Markets to Blame?

Mon, 10 Nov 2025 17:11:29 GMT

As President Donald Trump demands a federal investigation into meatpackers for inflating beef prices , another battle over farm input costs is already heating up. Fertilizer, long one of the most volatile and least transparent costs in farming, is now drawing renewed scrutiny on Capitol Hill.

Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, has reintroduced The Fertilizer Research Act, a bipartisan measure requiring USDA to study pricing and competition across the fertilizer market. U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins says that effort will go hand in hand with a Department of Justice probe into market concentration, promising to take a look at whether farmers truly have fair choices when buying the inputs that feed the nation.

“Pressure Cooker” on Capitol Hill

Two weeks ago on Capitol Hill, lawmakers took up the issue farmers have long demanded answers for: Why fertilizer, seed and input prices keep rising while competition keeps shrinking.

The Senate Judiciary Committee’s hearing, titled “Pressure Cooker: Competition Issues in the Seed and Fertilizer Industries, ” drew fiery testimony from across agriculture. Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle say they’re hearing growing frustration from rural America.

Grassley tells the committee that farmers are being boxed in by consolidation at every level of the ag supply chain.

“Over the last 20 years, a few big companies have bought up many of the smaller seed and chemical businesses,” he says. “Those same companies now sell not just the seeds, but also the pesticides and digital farming tools that tell farmers what to plant and when. Because all these products and data systems are tied together, it’s hard for farmers to switch to a different brand.”

Sen. Cory Booker, D–N.J., delivers one of the sharpest warnings of the day.

“What’s happening in America is dire,” he says. “Congress must not just talk about the problems; we’ve got to fix them. Otherwise, American farming as we know it will be forever changed.”

Farmers Take a Stand

The goal of the hearing was to understand what’s driving record-high input prices and what, if anything, Congress can do to restore fairness and competition.

Of the six witnesses called that day, two were farmers who spoke candidly about what they’re experiencing on the ground.

Noah Coppess, a fifth-generation farmer from Cedar County, Iowa, tells senators the volatility of fertilizer pricing has turned crop planning into a gamble.

“If the market becomes too constricted, it is ultimately the farmer who loses,” Coppess says. “Fertilizer pricing has become very volatile, with wild swings of 25% to 50% from year to year. We’re asked to prepay for fertilizer three to six months before it’s applied to the soil and up to 14 months before harvest. Many contracts have a narrow window for application. If we miss it, the contract expires and the input is repriced higher or we’re charged monthly fees just to extend it.”

He says it’s forcing farmers to cut back in ways that threaten long-term soil health.

“Phosphate fertilizer has become a bare-minimum usage fertilizer on our farm because of the cost,” Coppess adds. “We simply can’t afford to apply it like we used to.”

Kentucky farmer Caleb Ragland tells the committee the same pressures are weighing on his operation.

“Farmers are paying more than ever to grow their crops,” he says. “In just five years, seed prices have increased by 18%, fertilizer by 37%, pesticides by 25%, machinery by 23% and interest expense by 37%. Seed is a key cost consideration for farmers. Advancements in seed technology and pesticides have delivered real agronomic benefits — but at an added cost. Those costs are eating away at what little margin we have left.”

Industry Response: “A Perfect Storm”

But the hearing wasn’t just about farmers. Corey Rosenbusch, president and CEO of The Fertilizer Institute (TFI), appeared before the committee to represent the industry’s view. Speaking later with “AgriTalk” host Chip Flory, Rosenbusch says the pressures farmers face are real but are largely the result of global dynamics, not domestic decisions.

“It’s a challenging time for growers,” Rosenbusch says. “In some cases, it’s even harder for the American farmer right now than it was a few years ago when markets exploded because at least, back then, commodity prices were high. Right now, it’s a perfect storm. Commodity prices are low, and input costs keep going up and up. Our message is simple: We need farmers to be successful because if they’re not, we don’t exist. But the factors driving this market are frankly outside of our control and, honestly, outside of this country’s control. Geopolitics is taking the headlines when it comes to supply and demand.”

He says Russia’s war in Ukraine, China’s fertilizer export restrictions and global energy volatility are all rippling through fertilizer markets — forces far beyond the industry’s ability to manage.

“These are global supply and demand pressures,” Rosenbusch says. “When geopolitics dominate, prices react worldwide.”

Farmers Push Back: “Too Few Suppliers”

Farmers listening to the hearing say those global explanations don’t tell the whole story.

Mark Mueller, a farmer from Bremer County, Iowa, was supposed to testify on behalf of the Iowa Corn Growers but says he was disinvited, which he believes was because of Iowa Corn’s strong stance on lack of competition in the fertilizer market.

He still attended the hearing in person and says one statement from the fertilizer industry blew him away.

“The bottom line is that we don’t have many places to get our inputs from,” Mueller says. “I might have a half dozen retailers in my county, but when you go a little farther, they all get their phosphorus from one company, their potash from two companies, and their nitrogen from maybe three, and it’s the same problem in the seed industry.”

Mueller says one comment from the industry’s leadership stuck with him.

“The most disingenuous statement I heard came from the CEO of the Fertilizer Institute,” he says. “He said there are 20 unique companies supplying fertilizer inputs to the industry. That’s like General Motors saying they’re made up of four or five unique companies — Buick, Chevrolet, GMC and Cadillac. It’s all one company.”

“It’s Not a Monopoly — It’s an Oligopoly”

Josh Linville, vice president of fertilizer at StoneX Group, agrees the U.S. fertilizer market isn’t a monopoly, but he says it operates much like one.

“Here’s why I can’t be a politician,” Linville jokes. “No, there isn’t enough competition. It’s not a monopoly, but it’s definitely an oligopoly. When you look at nitrogen, three players control the vast majority of production. For phosphate, there’s one main producer. For potash, we’re highly dependent on imports. Almost all of it comes from Canada. So yes, we have some competition — but not enough.”

Linville says fewer players mean tighter supply chains, and that amplifies every global shock, from wars to tariffs.

“A lot of what’s happening is global supply and demand,” he says. “But the lack of competition doesn’t help. Tariffs, countervailing duties and even the fear of new sanctions on Russia are inflating prices that global trade already pushes higher.”

Concerns Potential Government Trade Aid Payments Further Inflate Fertilizer Prices

There’s yet another wildcard this year: the potential for the White House to release tariff aid payments. USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden confirmed on AgriTalk the agency is preparing to roll out $12 billion in trade aid once the government reopens.

Linville says the potential for new government aid has some unintended consequences for the fertilizer market.

“Unfortunately, no,” Linville says when asked if fertilizer prices might ease if aid payments don’t go out. “If the payments come out, I’m afraid it’s gonna boost fertilizer prices. It doesn’t change the supply and demand for most of these products, but it does change the timing, and timing is everything.”

Linville says the fertilizer market is as much about when farmers buy as it is about how much they buy. Injecting fresh cash into the market at once could cause a surge in demand that suppliers can’t absorb smoothly.

“If there’s a big fat check that goes into the farmer’s pockets and that gets spent on fertilizer, and you pull all that demand into one period, fertilizer is going to see its prices boosted as a result,” he adds. “We saw that the last time the checks went out.”

Read More: Tariff Aid Payments Could Backfire, Boosting Fertilizer Prices, Analyst Warns

Little Hope for Price Relief

When asked whether fertilizer prices could ease before spring, Linville doesn’t sugarcoat it.

“You know me — I’m never going to deal in guarantees,” he says. “I’m not going to say prices can’t fall between now and spring, but the second I do, the market will humble me again. We’ve got some improvements: China’s exporting a little more, Russia’s exporting more, there’s more peace in the Middle East, but we still have production problems in Europe, and China’s slowing exports again. Phosphate exports are being cut in half this year, and the world doesn’t have anyone ready to fill that gap. So could prices fall? Yes. But I’m not holding my breath.”

Stockpiling Isn’t a Solution

When asked on “AgriTalk” whether stopping exports and stockpiling product domestically could help ease prices, Rosenbusch says the U.S. doesn’t have that capability.

“Even if we wanted to take a page out of China’s book and stop exports, we couldn’t,” he says. “We still have to import 40% of our phosphates. We don’t have the infrastructure to stockpile fertilizer in this country. It just doesn’t exist.”

A Critical Step Forward

In what’s being hailed as a small but meaningful win for the U.S. farm economy, the Trump administration recently added phosphate and potash to the list of 10 minerals deemed critical to national security. The designation could help accelerate mining permits and spur new domestic investment — something both industry and lawmakers say is badly needed.

But for farmers testifying before the Senate Judiciary Committee, the message was clear: They can’t wait years for market reform.

“Fertilizer is the biggest pain point on farms today,” Coppess says. “We need change, and we need it soon.”

'Everything’s a Game of 3D Chess': The Real Reason Behind U.S. Ties to Argentina

Fri, 24 Oct 2025 19:32:25 GMT

The U.S. is tightening ties with Argentina, and that’s raising eyebrows across farm country.

From a $20 billion bailout to plans to import Argentine beef, farmers and ranchers say the growing alliance feels like it’s coming at the expense of U.S. agriculture.

But according to Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist with StoneX, there’s more to this story, and it has everything to do with China .

A Geopolitical Chess Match

“Everything’s a game of 3D chess,” Suderman explains. “At the center of it is China.”

For years, China has been strengthening ties with Argentina, investing heavily in infrastructure and agriculture to secure long-term supply lines and influence. Suderman says the U.S. sees an opportunity to pull Argentina away from Beijing’s orbit, using economic incentives to win its allegiance.

“The White House sees this as a way to create a split between Argentina and China,” Suderman says. “It’s not just about soybeans or beef. It’s about global positioning.”

The Beef Backlash

But for cattle producers, that strategy feels like betrayal. President Donald Trump’s recent talk of importing Argentine beef sparked anger across rural America. Many worry increasing imports will undercut domestic markets.

Suderman urges producers to stay calm. He points out the announced beef imports, around 80,000 metric tons, are only equal to about two day’s worth of U.S. beef production.

“It’s not enough to impact prices,” he says, “but it does show a disconnect between Washington and agriculture.”

He adds that advisers to the president might have misunderstood how ag markets work.

“These aren’t controlled industries like pharmaceuticals,” Suderman notes. “Ag markets are driven by supply and demand, and right now, we have record demand with tight supply.”

Soybean Farmers Feel Left Behind

While beef producers protest, soybean farmers are already bruised. Argentina’s temporary suspension of export taxes earlier in the year allowed them to undercut U.S. prices and quickly sell beans to China — a major blow to American growers. Suderman says it’s a reminder that the U.S. is no longer the world’s low-cost soybean producer.

“Argentina and Brazil have a cheaper currency and lower costs,” he explains. “And China has been investing there for decades.”

Suderman says he’s been warning the industry for years that the U.S. would eventually lose China as its top soybean buyer.

“This didn’t happen overnight,” Suderman says. “China has been building toward this for 20 years. The current administration may have sped it up, but it was coming.”

Beijing’s refusal to buy American and its pivot to Brazil could be less about economics and more to do with politics. “It’s a calculated decision about control and national leverage, not about getting the cheapest beans,” says one ag economist. Read more here.

Caught in a Bigger Battle

Beyond agriculture, Suderman says the real fight isn’t over soybeans — it’s over rare earth minerals. China currently controls about 90% of the world’s processed rare earths, which are essential to making electronics and advanced defense systems.

“That’s the real leverage,” he says. “Soybeans are small compared to the rare earth battle.”

The Trump administration is now trying to expand domestic rare earth supply chains, sourcing from Australia, Greenland and even within the U.S. But Suderman says it could take two to three years before those efforts meet national defense and economic needs.

What Farmers Need to Know

To many farmers, Washington’s global strategy feels like it’s coming at their expense. While the administration is playing the long game with China, rural America is paying the short-term price. Still, Suderman sees opportunity ahead if the U.S. can continue developing new markets, strengthen biofuel demand and tap into growing trade opportunities in Africa and beyond.

“We weren’t ready to give up China,” he admits, “but we need to look forward not backward.”

A New Road for Soybeans: Building New Domestic Demand

Tue, 14 Oct 2025 13:33:17 GMT

The loss of China as a dominant buyer has left a hole in U.S. soybean demand that hasn’t been easy to fill. While export sales have held up better than expected elsewhere in the world, farmers and industry leaders are still asking the same question: Where will the next big wave of demand come from?

In an unexpected twist, some engineers in Iowa believe the answer might be right beneath our wheels and in the refineries used to fuel vehicles today.

A Parking Lot That’s Anything but Ordinary

From the sky, the parking lot at Iowa State University looks like any other — smooth, black pavement stretching across rows of cars. But a closer look reveals a surprising secret: this blacktop isn’t made with conventional petroleum products. Instead, it’s paved with soybeans.

“As a chemist, you look at the soybean molecule itself — it’s just an absolute dream,” says Eric Cochran, Mary Jane Skogen Hagenson & Randy L. Hagenson Professor at Iowa State . “It’s just a playground. There are so many different things you can do with it.”

For Cochran and his team, that “playground” led them to reimagine something as ordinary as pavement and, in the process, potentially open a powerful new market for American soybeans.

A Crisis Spurs Innovation

Soybean oil had been on the sidelines for decades, mostly used in food or as a fuel source. But around 2010, Cochran and his team discovered that the long molecular chains of soybean oil could be strung together to form elastic, rubber-like materials. Those properties mirror exactly what asphalt needs to survive the extremes of summer heat and winter freeze.

Traditionally, asphalt producers rely on synthetic polymers, particularly a petroleum-based product called SPS, to provide flexibility and strength. But in 2008, a global SPS shortage triggered a crisis in the asphalt industry. Just as panic was setting in, Cochran’s lab had an idea: What if soybean oil could fill the gap?

“It wasn’t long before [the Iowa Department of Transportation] was asking if they could try our new soybean rubber in asphalt,” Cochran recalls. “And things just kind of cascaded from there.”

From Pilot Plant to Proof of Concept

At first, the idea of soy-based pavement caught one civil engineers off guard.

“No, it was not on my radar at all,” admits Chris Williams, Gerald and Audrey Olson Professor in Civil Engineering at Iowa State University . “We had seen a lot of market increases in asphalt as supply was getting tight for demand. In the U.S., when we have an economic downturn, we correct that by investing in infrastructure. Everybody benefits — safer roads, better fuel economy, smoother rides and jobs.”

The team secured initial investment to build a pilot plant, their “first flag in the ground,” as Cochran puts it, proving soybean oil could be transformed into a durable, scalable pavement solution.

By 2018, that pilot plant produced its first soy-based asphalt. Over the next five years, with support from the Iowa Soybean Association and the United Soybean Board , the team ramped up production to showcase just how tough soy pavement can be.

“We formed a startup company in 2020,” Williams says. “We’ve worked out manufacturing issues, started getting customers, and now is really the time to take advantage of all this extensive testing.”

Consistency in a Volatile Market

Beyond its performance benefits, soy polymers bring something else to the table: predictability. Unlike petroleum-based polymers, which swing wildly with the energy markets, soybean oil prices are far more stable.

“When you look at price volatility of polymers, it’s a wide range,” Williams explains. “The consistency of soybean oil pricing is a lot less volatile. When you’re planning infrastructure projects four, five, 10 years out, lower volatility reduces risk and makes costs more predictable. That’s critical for how we invest in infrastructure.”

Soy polymers also fill critical supply gaps when refiners shift between crude petroleum and natural gas. When the market leans toward natural gas, the availability of butadiene, a key polymer ingredient, drops. Soy steps in to keep supply steady.

What’s Next? Rethinking the Refinery

Cochran and Williams believe the implications go far beyond the road surface. By redirecting soybean oil from fuel use to industrial materials, they say the U.S. can make its refineries more efficient and economically viable — at a time when refinery closures are becoming more frequent.

“Rather than burning it for energy, we could use it to really transform how the oil processing industry operates,” Cochran says. “Every ton of soybean oil we produce can become a permanent part of the pavements we drive on, and allow us to get more energy out of every barrel of crude oil.”

Williams notes there are just over 60 active refineries in the U.S., down from previous decades. Soy polymers could help keep these facilities competitive while enabling the production of more jet fuel and exportable products — boosting both rural and industrial economies.

From Fields to Freeways

While that might be more long-term, today, soy oil for asphalt is a reality. And years of research is finally paying off.

The researchers say each bushel of soybeans yields about 10.7 lb. of oil, and researchers are working on ways to squeeze even more value out of every drop. Their efforts have been fueled by farmer checkoff investments through the Iowa Soybean Association and United Soybean Board — groups that both Cochran and Williams say made the research possible.

It’s a road less traveled, quite literally. But this innovation is paving the way for a new domestic demand engine for U.S. soybeans — one that isn’t dependent on international trade flows or the whims of a single buyer.

And for farmers looking for the next “shining star” of soybean demand, the answer might already be under their tires.

California's Water Crisis: Farmers Warn Water Rules Could Cripple Central Valley Agriculture

Wed, 01 Oct 2025 10:52:47 GMT

On Hansen Ranch in the Central Valley, fifth-generation farmer Erik Hansen grows a little bit of everything — pistachios, almonds, pomegranates, alfalfa, corn for silage and cotton.

“We farm 15, 16 different crops,” Hansen says. “Cotton is our biggest acreage crop, and that’s in the form of Pima cotton.”

That diversification has long been the Hansen family’s survival strategy. But in spring 2023, no amount of crop rotation could shield them from disaster.

“Where we’re standing right now was underwater,” Hansen recalls. “A mile from here, over by that PG&E substation, was the edge of the lake.”

The flood wiped out 600 acres of pomegranates and 400 acres of pistachios. One thousand acres of permanent crops gone in one season.

“It was a massive hit,” Hansen says. “We had about 5,000 to 6,000 acres under water. Some of that water lasted for over a year.”

From Too Much Water to Not Enough

The irony is hard to ignore: In 2023, floodwaters destroyed thousands of acres. Now, Hansen says it’s the lack of access to water that could cripple farms across the Central Valley.

“The last projections I heard were anywhere from 1 million to 1.2 million acres totaled in the valley,” he says, referring to farmland that could be idled by the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) .

Passed in 2014, SGMA requires local agencies to reduce groundwater overdraft and achieve sustainable use by 2040. On paper, Hansen says, that makes sense.

“To some extent it is good because you have to have a way to manage the overdraft,” he explains. “The problem is there are surface water facilities we developed back in the 50s and 60s that we’re just not using. A lot of that water is going out to the Pacific Ocean.”

For Hansen, the politics sting. He believes decades of state decisions — prioritizing fish and wildlife, reallocating water, and neglecting infrastructure — set up today’s crisis.

“I’m frustrated because the families that have been farming here for years, some decades, sometimes even more, are being footed with a bill for problems that somebody else created,” Hansen says. “If the state doesn’t look in the mirror, I think we’re going to find ourselves in the same position again.”

Young Farmers Face the Same Struggles

Forty miles south, 30-year-old Elizabeth Keenan is navigating the same regulatory headwinds. Her grandfather Charlie started Keenan Farms in 1972, acquiring one of California’s first pistachio orchards. Today, Elizabeth farms alongside her parents and brother.

“Rolling with the regulatory punches can be complicated,” she admits. “Despite pistachios being such a high-value product, despite having optimal land and weather conditions, we really have everything set up beautifully — except for legislation.”

Water, she says, is the most difficult hurdle.

“We’re up to a 50% allocation,” Keenan explains. “The base allocation is 2.2 acre-feet, so we get 1.1 acre-feet to use. Otherwise, we have to have open fallow fields. To pump more water, we have to buy it on the open market, and that’s expensive too.”

A Political Battle Over Flows

Signs line highways across the Central Valley warning that 80% of California’s river water flows out to the Pacific instead of farms. Assemblyman David Tangipa, a freshman lawmaker representing the 8^th District, says those numbers are real.

“It’s 100% happening,” Tangipa says. “Almost 83% of all water in the state is automatically pushed out for environmental purposes.”

California averages about 200 million acre-feet of water each year, Tangipa notes, but despite record rainfall, farms often get less than half of their allocations.

“We’ve prioritized so much environmental legislation that more than 80% of our water is pushed out immediately to the ocean, unnaturally,” he says. “Meanwhile, farmers get less water and more land goes out of production.”

Proponents of Current Water Flows

There are proponents of the current way the water flows, mainly for environmental reasons and to prevent saltwater contamination of freshwater sources.

California releases water into the ocean to prevent saltwater intrusion into freshwater supplies, protect endangered aquatic species and ecosystems, and maintain the delicate balance of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta estuary, a critical source of drinking and irrigation water.

A portion of released water is also used for stormwater management to prevent flooding, as it can be difficult and impractical to capture and store all of it.

And those in favor of environmental water releases say it’s essential to support broader ecosystem benefits like water filtration and carbon sequestration, which are important for overall environmental health.

The Ripple Effect

The Central Valley of California is a powerhouse in food production for the U.S. That area alone produces approximately half of all the fruits and vegetables grown in the U.S., as well as a large portion of the nation’s nuts and other foods. When you break down the numbers, the Central Valley accounts for about 60% of the nation’s fruits and nuts, and about 30% of the nation’s vegetables.

For Thomas Putzel, who works with farmers across the Central Valley, the impact of regulations isn’t just measured in acre-feet. It’s measured in livelihoods and the food supply.

“The environmentalists try to say farmers are wasting water,” he says. “But when we look at what farmers provide, we’re planting forests. One acre of almonds will capture 18 metric tons of carbon a year. That’s like taking 29 million cars off the road.”

Putzel says California voters already approved a water bond to build new storage a decade ago, but no new projects have been built.

“Not one shovel has gone in the ground in 10 years,” he says. “Actually, they took some of that money and tore dams down.”

Meanwhile, permanent crops wither when water isn’t available, leaving behind dead orchards that invite pests and rodents into neighboring fields.

“SGMA’s not necessarily a bad thing,” Putzel says. “But you’ve asked growers to run a marathon with their legs tied together. People don’t understand; food doesn’t come from a grocery store. It comes from a farmer. If California stopped shipping produce for one week, our stores would be empty.”

“Is Farming in California’s Best Interest?”

For Erik Hansen, the question is bigger than water allocations or acreage lost.

“Government is probably the biggest problem right now,” he says. “It just seems California hasn’t really decided whether farming is in their best interest. Politicians like to say they’re for small business and small farming, but virtually every piece of legislation makes it more difficult to survive.”

As the Central Valley wrestles with the challenges of floods, drought and regulations, one reality is clear: The fate of these farms is tied not just to weather and soil but to political decisions that could shape the future of food in America.

Breaking Down the 4 Biggest Challenges Facing the Ag Economy

Mon, 29 Sep 2025 19:15:37 GMT

Farm Journal’s Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor, an anonymous survey sent to nearly 70 ag economists each month, shows growing concern about the farm economy. “AgriTalk” host Chip Flory breaks down the latest results, pointing to four key findings.

1. Recession Calls Hit a Survey High

A record 91% of ag economists now say the farm economy is in a recession. That’s the highest level since the survey began, fueled by record input costs while commodity prices remain depressed. Still, about 10% pushed back, arguing that as long as farmland values hold strong, agriculture’s store of wealth remains intact and technically keeps the sector out of a recession.

“Basically what they’re saying is that we’re not going to be in a recession until we see land prices start to pull back,” Flory explains. “That’s where agriculture stores its wealth. As long as those land prices hold up … we are not going to be in a recession as long as that store of wealth remains safe.”

91% of ag economists say the crops sector of agriculture is currently experiencing a recession, which is a survey high.

(September Ag Economists’. Monthly Monitor )

2. Bleak Outlook for 2026

46% of ag economists say the economy situation is “somewhat worse off” compared to last month and 27% say it’s “much worse off” compared to last year.

(Lindsey Pound, September Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor )

While opinions about the next 12 months are mixed — 50% expect some improvement, 30% think it will worsen — the longer-term picture is troubling. Economists expect 2026 corn and soybean crops to be breakeven at best, with potential losses of up to $200 per acre.

“The expectations on the ’26 crops are that, at best, it’s going to be breakeven on corn and soybeans,” Flory says. “There’s expectations for losses up to $200 an acre among the survey respondents … We’ve drained a lot of working capital out of the industry already. And it’s really going to get tight in 2026 if this continues.”

Results from the latest Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lindsey Pound, Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor )

3. Soybean Exports Under Pressure

Economists see U.S. soybean demand as vulnerable. USDA currently projects 1.705 billion bushels in exports, but survey respondents say that’s a best-case scenario. Some expect exports could fall below 1.4 billion bushels, a 300-million-bushel drop that could be catastrophic.

“China is obviously doing everything that it possibly can to avoid buying U.S. soybeans,” Flory says. “The current USDA export estimate … is a best-case scenario that the economists expect. Some see it all the way down under 1.4 billion bushels. To take another 300 million bushels off of bean export demand might be catastrophic.”

There are still a majority of economists who think China will still buy soybeans from the U.S. this year, with 54% responding “yes.”

Even though China has bought zero new crop soybean cargoes from the U.S., more than half of economists still think China will come to the table in 2025.

(Lindsey Pound, September Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor )

4. Screwworm Detection Near Border Raises Concerns Over Mexican Cattle Imports

This week, New World screwworm was detected just 70 miles from the U.S.–Mexico border, sparking renewed debate over cattle imports and whether USDA should keep the border closed to live cattle imports.

In the September Farm Journal Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor, economists were asked: Should the U.S. reopen its border to cattle imports from Mexico? Eighty percent said no.

91% of ag economists say the crops sector of agriculture is currently experiencing a recession, which is a survey high.

(September Ag Economists’. Monthly Monitor )

Their concern is the risk of screwworm spreading to U.S. herds.

“It’s important we continue to protect the health of our beef herd. Screwworm could have a devastating effect,” said one economist.
“Each day of delay [on reopening the border] gives more time to develop effective treatments/response,” was another response.

With the U.S. cattle herd already at a 75-year low, screwworm infestations can cause massive losses in livestock, threatening both animal health and, according to economists, the ag economy.

The Bright Spot: Beef Demand Stays Strong

There is a bright spot. Despite record-high retail prices, which economists thought would taper the hunger for U.S. beef, beef demand is holding firm. Two-thirds of economists say beef demand is inelastic, meaning consumers keep buying even as prices rise.

Even with record retail beef prices, the majority of ag economists say beef demand is proving to be inelastic.

(Lindsay Pound, Ag Economsits’ Monthly Monitor )

“It’s quality. Quality is a big part of the reason why,” Flory says. “We’ve done an unbelievable job responding to consumer demands to put choice and prime beef in the meat case … Consumers recognize the improvement in quality, and they’re responding by continuing to buy beef. The other thing is … high protein diets. That is a real thing that we need to adjust to, not only in beef, but in pork too.”

You can see the full results of the latest Monthly Monitor here .

Ag Lender Warns Farm Finances Under Greatest Stress Since the 1980s

Fri, 19 Sep 2025 16:12:18 GMT

As combines chew through this year’s crops, farmers are faced with a bleak reality: this crop they’re harvesting is coming at a steep financial loss. And for some, this marks the fourth year in a row they won’t make any money.

“What the general public doesn’t realize is these things have not just occurred over the last six months. This started in 2021 and 2022,” says Tommy Young, who farms in Newport, Ark. “In our particular situation, we started noticing shortfalls in 2021 and 2022 simply because of the input costs.”

That worry and concern took center stage and was at the heart of a meeting in Brookeland, Ark., earlier this month. A meeting that was supposed to be just a handful of farmers at a local bank turned into more of a movement. And for farmers, there was one resounding message: We need help, and we need it now.

“I think when everyone, other farmers, started seeing how many farmers showed up, it changed the overall dynamic of the meeting. It made it become emotional. It made it become more than reverence, from the standpoint that it made me feel personally that I’ve not done anything wrong,” Young says.

‘It Felt Just Like a Funeral’

In the middle of harvest, farmers from across Arkansas, southern Missouri and Tennessee parked their combines to attend the meeting. Young says as he parked his vehicle and saw trucks lining the road and lines of people standing outside to get in, the somber mood became very real.

“It felt just like a funeral,” Young says. “And then when we got inside, you didn’t see signs being held up. You didn’t hear screaming or any kind of thing like that. You saw people that were genuinely concerned about the industry as a whole.”

Young says during that meeting, the frustration farmers voiced came down to three main concerns within the ag economy:

Record-high input costs
Low commodity prices
The loss of key export markets

It’s those three factors fueling a perfect storm, but farmers are considerably concerned about the record-high input costs and what’s fueling those in agriculture.

“All we can do is hope for the best, be as efficient as we possibly can be with what we’re doing, and then thinking things would change. Well, they have not changed. They’ve gotten worse,” Young says.

Ag Lender Says Farmers Are Seeing the Most Financial Stress Since the 1980s

Greg Cole is president and CEO of AgHeritage Farm Credit Services, which serves roughly 6,700 members across 24 counties in Arkansas. Cole started in ag lending in 1984, and he says as Arkansas farmers stare at loss on every crop they grow, it’s not a repeat of the 1980s, but it’s eerily similar.

“I can tell you this, this is the most stress I’ve seen since the ‘80s when you come to farm profitability, i.e. farmers losing money,” Cole says. “One positive we have now compared to the ‘80s is land values. Our land values are still positive, which gives some lendable equity —unlike in the 80s, when I started my career, when U.S. farmland prices plummeted in some areas up to 60%.”

With a drastic drop in commodity prices, but input prices still record or near-record high, Cole says farmers in Arkansas, specifically, have been eroding balance sheets for four straight years.

“We started seeing losses in ’22 when 40% of our producers lost money,” Cole says. “In ’23, about 50% lost money. And then last year, in ’24, 70% lost money, with the average loss of about $150 an acre. And that’s after they received about a $50 per acre ECAP payments. Today, we’re looking at where we stand now. We could have a similar level of losses in ‘25 that we had in ‘24. Even though in ’24, we had very strong yields. But now we have weaker yields.”

As mounting debt shows up on the balance sheets, Cole says there are two types of farmers seeing the most severe financial strain.

“The ones who rent most of the land, especially if they pay on the higher end of rent. And here in the Mississippi Delta, most farmers who have a lot of acres rent most of their ground,” Cole says. “And then young, beginning farmers who didn’t have the opportunity to build up a lot of equity. Those are the ones that have occurred these multiple year losses where their balance sheet debt has swollen to a level that’s hard to service a debt when you add the interest rate cost on top of it.”

Farmers On the Brink of Being Forced Out of Farming

Cole says in talking to farm credit colleagues from across the country, next to the central valley of California, farmers in the Mississippi region are in the most severe shape.

“There were 62 farm equipment sales in eastern Arkansas this past winter,” Cole says. “That’s the most I can recall, anecdotally speaking, than any time in my career since the 1980s. And I think what we’re looking at now is at least that many or more. It could be double that if we don’t get major intervention in the markets or an intervention from D.C.

Cole continues: “Really, what we need is another ad hoc payment, maybe in a form of an MFP-type payment that we received back in Covid. But we need some major help here, or we’re going to have a lot less farmers in 2026 and 2027.”

It’s a desperate plea across agriculture. Without some type of market or government intervention, some could be forced out of farming this year — similar to what happened in the 1980s.

“My dad, in 1978, went to Washington D.C., stood on the capitol and was there during that time when they drove tractors to D.C.,” Young says. “It was the same thing in Brookeland, Arkansas. And if this thing continues, I think it will go nationwide because we’ve got to get through this. And the president and congress have got to make it to where we have good markets, sustainable markets and markets that we can depend on long term.”

Largest Drop in Crop Cash Receipts Ever

It’s not just farmers in the Delta seeing the financial strain. Ag economist John Newton tells AgDay’s Michelle Rook that even though the overall net farm income picture from USDA looks strong, it’s a very different situation when you take out livestock and just look at crops.

“If you look at the data, crop cash receipts over the last three years have declined by $71 billion,” says Newton, executive head of Terrain. “When adjusted for inflation, that matches the largest decline that we’ve seen in history. So, the pressure in the crop space is very real.”

NCGA and ASA Also Sounding the Alarm

National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) is also sounding the alarm , saying agriculture is nearing a financial crisis. According to a new study released by NCGA, nearly half (46%) of U.S. farmers believe we are on the brink of a farm crisis, and 65% are more concerned now about their farm financials than a year ago.

American Soybean Association (ASA)CEO Stephen Censky also sees and hears the growing concern among farmers.

“It’s tough, and I can hear it in the stress in our members’ voices Our members and our board of directors are really concerned right now,” Censky says. “Some say if things don’t turn around, if we don’t get markets back or if we get economic assistance — which is not our first choice — this could be their last year in farming. That’s pretty scary.”

Censky says this time in agriculture is more serious than the last trade war simply because crop prices are lower than they were in 2018, and input prices are significantly higher.

“I will say while those programs we had, the market facilitation payments (MFP), they help keep folks in business. They stop the blood loss. They help farmers survive until the next year, but it’s not a replacement for markets,” Censky says. “And no farmer wants to be dependent on getting his or her income from the government, or from the mailbox, rather than from the marketplace.”

Farmers are also voicing frustration lately that when government assistance is given, they are simply a pass-through. The payments keep input prices elevated, and also seem to prop up high land values.

“One of the things is that when you provide economic assistance or any kind of government payments, whether that is through the reference prices and the ARC and PLC programs under the farm programs, yes, that helps. It helps keep farmers in business and helps them pay the bills. But longer term, any form of government assistance like that gets capitalized into land rents and land values, and that has consequences as well for farmers,” Censky says.

Yet, Censky was part of the Trump administration. He served as the United States Deputy Secretary of Agriculture from 2017 through 2020. That was also during the first trade war with China, and he knows the loss of the Chinese market is completely out of farmers’ control.

“We have not been publicly calling for another MFP-type program. Our priority has been ‘Let’s get a deal with China on soybeans’, because having that market is what soybean farmers want,” Censky says. “And by restoring and getting rid of the retaliatory tariffs, and ideally getting some purchase commitments from China, would be like we did under the Phase One trade deal with China. That would be great. And that also puts a lid on, or a damper on, Brazilian expansion, which has long-term benefits for the U.S. soybean industry as well.”

From Despair to Hope: Why a Farmer on the Brink of Suicide Chose to Keep Going

Tue, 16 Sep 2025 15:41:23 GMT

It’s starting to feel similar to the 1980s. Not only are farmers on the brink of financial collapse, but there’s another grim reality setting in: The number of farmers dying by suicide is on the rise, and it could be at a rate U.S. agriculture hasn’t seen since the 1980s.

Even though statistics on suicides among farmers aren’t reliable from the 1980s because many were deemed “accidents” during that time, some estimates point to more than 1,000 farmers dying by suicide during that crisis.

“Unfortunately, it just almost seems like it’s a pandemic situation. I mean, there’s a lot of it, and it’s sad,” says Brent Foreman, a farmer in Shelby County, Mo., who knows the impacts of farmer suicides all too well.

“From an agricultural perspective, there’s a lot of stress in this industry, especially now,” Foreman says. “And somebody that’s contemplating this. I would say, we as farmers, we like to try to fix things, and we’re pretty good at it, but you can’t fix everything. If you get to a point like that, please reach out to someone, a family member, a good friend. Just please try to get some help.”

Touched By Suicide Three Times

Foreman isn’t just a fellow farmer concerned about the number of farmer suicides today. He’s a life-long farmer who’s been impacted by farmers dying by suicide three times, and the first loss happened when he was just 12 years old.

“My grandfather was a wonderful man, the most important male figure in my life,” Foreman says. “It happened 54 years ago, and it leaves a heck of a hole in your heart still today.”

Sixteen years later, his younger brother died by suicide, another sudden and tragic loss where there were no signs something was wrong.

“And then just a little over two years ago, my brother-in-law, who was 68, took his life,” Foreman says. “I’m telling you, it’s a devastating thing for loved ones to have to go through. It is tough. It’s really tough.”

Foreman says with his brother-in-law, there were signs he was struggling. He tried to take his life one time, but didn’t succeed. That’s when the family tried to get him help, which he agreed to, even going in for treatment.

“We thought that things were getting better, but they weren’t,” Foreman says. “At the beginning, I consulted our preacher, and I said: ‘I need some prayer and I need some advice.’ And he said: ‘Well, I do want to tell you something. I want you to be able to be prepared if you fail. Can you handle that?’ And I said: ‘Well, what I can’t handle is if I don’t try. I have to try.’

Experiencing three suicides, all by loved ones he was extremely close to, has been devastating. Foreman says the emotions are still raw today.

“It’s tough to live with, going through that so many times,” he says. “When I was a youngster I always told myself, the hurt, that’s something I would never do to anyone else. I just made like a pact with myself that I would never do that, because I’ve seen and lived firsthand how it affects you. From a family’s perspective, the pain goes on and on; it doesn’t quit. My wife, from her perspective, I can just see it in her eyes almost daily, the devastation.”

‘When We Lose Hope, It’s a Dangerous Place to Be’

When a person loses hope, that’s when the situation turns bleak.

“Sadly, that is the end all for a lot of people,” Jolie Foreman, executive director at Shelby County Cares , says. “Hope is key. If you have hope, you can keep going. When you lose hope, it’s just a very dangerous place to be.”

Lafayette County, Mo., farmer Ethan Daehler has been there.

“It was actually 2019 was kind of my low point,” he says.

Just six years ago, this Missouri farmer hit rock bottom.

“I was pretty much just down in the dumps, ready to just give up on life,” he says. “Thank the Lord something happened that kind of changed my way of thinking.”

In his early 30s, Ethan Daehler knows what it’s like to be on the verge of suicide. In 2019, he hit a low point. But something saved him, and he hopes by sharing his story, he will reach other farmers in a similar state of mind, reminding them that life is worth living.

(Ethan Daehler, Missouri Farmer )

Battling ongoing pain from an accident and stress of work, as well as struggles with the dynamics of a family farm, it all compounded the issue and pushed Daehler to a breaking point.

“I had a full-time job at the time working for another farmer and trying to do my own small operation,” he says. “We had family issues, which happens to a lot of farmers. There is a lot that compounds into thoughts, it’s just not financial problems, and I think that’s what people need to understand.

Daehler is now proof that it’s worth finding a reason to live, and he is only sharing his story to possibly save someone who’s in a similar spot as he was in 2019.

“There’s more to life,” he says. “I’m in a tractor now, baling hay, this is my fourth cutting. This is what I kind of dreamed of. Find something you love doing.”

A Mission to Prevent Farmer Suicides

That pain is something that fueled his daughter-in-law’s work. Jolie Foreman is the executive director at Shelby County Cares , a nonprofit whose goal is to improve the quality of life for children, youth and adults.

“I knew that we were very resource poor,” Jolie says. “So when I heard that this opportunity was available, we jumped on it, and we’ve just grown from the bottom up. We are definitely grassroots. They had faith in us in what our vision was, and they invested in it.

Through a grant,Jolie’s initial focus wasn’t suicide, but as she started doing research, she discovered there was a desperate need to provide help.

“My family had been impacted by suicide, and that’s kind of why I had jumped on board in the beginning,” she says. “But once we sat down at the table and really started to dive into the names and being in a small town, we know all of those lives that have been lost to suicide up here, that the producer was the one that was struggling.”

Fall Typically Heightens the Stress and Struggles

Jolie says they are currently seeing an increase in the number of farmer suicides happening across the country. Some of that is due to the various stresses involved with farming, but she says the fall is typically when the number of suicides in agriculture rises even more.

“In the spring, there’s a lot of hope,” Jolie says. “You’re planting, you’re coming off of the year that may have been good, may have been bad, but there’s always hope in the spring. And come September, I think the stark reality starts to set in either the pricing and the yields.”

September is Suicide Prevention Awareness Month , and when it comes to agriculture the facts are startling. Farmers are 3.5 times more likely to die by suicide than the general population. The suicide rate among male farmers, ranchers and ag managers is 43.7 deaths per 100,000 people, according to the National Rural Health Association.

The mounting financial pressures unfolding across the agricultural economy are adding another layer to an industry that already faces one of the highest rates of suicide compared to any other profession.

“Suicide is one of those things that’s hard to put on a scale,” Jolie says. “I mean we know the lives we’ve lost. We unfortunately can’t see the lives that we’ve saved, but I do know from talking to the local ambulance district that the calls have definitely increased; 988 is a huge resource here, and those calls have gone up and increased exponentially. And just through conversations I know that that rural agricultural piece is pressing behind it.”

She says one of the most startling discoveries she’s made during her research and work is the desensitization to death among farmers. She says through various conversations, it’s a reality that’s sad but true.

It’s Not Just Financial Stress That Causes Strains on Farmers’ Mental Health

Jolie says it’s not just financial stress that causes these struggles. It’s also the fact farming comes with many stresses, and for the most part, many farmers are so isolated and might not have access to adequate healthcare.

AgriSafe says if you’re a farmer, rancher, or farmworker, you already know that your work can expose you to a variety of hazards. They believe that with proper education and access to knowledgeable health professionals, farmers can live a long, healthy, and productive life.

(The Total Farmer Health Model, AgriSafe)

According to AgriSafe’s Total Farmer Health , the financial factor is one that can compound mental health struggles, but there are other factors that lead to the risks of farmer suicides including:

Weather
Sleep
Cognition
Social
Diet
Hazards
Spirituality
Healthcare
Fitness

Signs to Watch

And for family and friends, there are signs to watch out for, including neglect of the farm or ranch or even an individual who makes a big financial moves.

“Financial moves are also huge, which is why we’ve talked to attorneys, and we also talked to the financial providers like different banks,” Jolie says. “Are they moving their money? Are they giving away prize possessions? Are they changing their wills? Are they creating a sudden will? We just want to give those resources the tools that they need just to be like, ’Are you okay?’

Daehler says his message for someone in a dark place is you’re not alone. That message is something the Foremans also wants farmers to know.

“I want them to know that we care. I want to know they feed and fuel the world, but if their bucket is empty, they can’t pour into others,” Jolie says. “It’s OK to not be OK, to talk about it, to reach out, to ask your neighbor, to not afraid if you do see something or change in behavior or more isolation. Don’t be afraid to have that conversation. And there are a lot of people that care.”

Suicide Prevent Hotlines

It’s important to remember no matter where you are, there is help. 988 is the Suicide and Crisis Lifeline .

And for farmers, there is a specific farmer crisis hotline you can call that is toll-free at 866.586.6746.

The American Farm Bureau also has a Farm State of Mind campaign which builds awareness to reduce stigma and provides access to information and resources that promote farmer and rancher mental health wellness. You can visit that list of resources here .

Is the Ag Economy in a Recession? Why Economists and Farmers Don't Agree

Fri, 08 Aug 2025 19:34:49 GMT

Fewer agricultural economists think the row crop side of agriculture is currently in a recession, but when you consider most major row crops are seeing four consecutive years of poor profit margins, farmers argue an agricultural recession is currently underway.

Fifty-three percent of agricultural economists surveyed in Farm Journal’s July Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor say the row crops side of agriculture is currently in a recession, which is down from the 72% who responded that way in May .

For the 53% who think agriculture is in a recession, economists argue the poor profit margins and another year of projected negative returns mean any cash reserves are being drained.

In the July survey, economists said:

“While the BBB will raise reference prices for the ARC and PLC, current market prices remain low, and crops went in with expensive inputs, so most producers are going to have a hard time profiting under the current conditions. Losses may be lessening but it’s a tough situation for grain producers.”
“2025 is bringing negative returns for at least the third consecutive year across nearly all row crops, with 2026 setting up to be another negative returns year.”
“Farmers are seeing cash flow drain and lower revenues compared to the past two years.”

The negative returns projected for 2025 and 2026 aren’t just due to low commodity prices, but the fact input prices, like fertilizer, are trending higher.

The poor profitability picture is impacting nearly every major row crop in the U.S., with at least four consecutive years of negative margins when you look at just the price versus costs.

(Krista Swanson, National Corn Growers Association )

Krista Swanson, chief economist for National Corn Growers Association (NCGA), says poor profitability margins are projected for every major commodity in the U.S.

“I think the big concern, especially as we turn to looking at 2026, is that we’re talking about for almost every single crop, 2026 being at least the fourth consecutive year of negative returns, and we’re not just talking about small negative returns on average, but over $100 an acre losses, and again, that’s not accounting for crop insurance or any government payments that is specifically looking at costs and returns from those grain sales,” Swanson says.

Why Some Ag Economists Argue Agriculture Isn’t in a Recession

Additional farm program payments from Congress, along with the fact land prices aren’t declining, are two reasons 47% of ag economists argue the ag economy isn’t in a recession.

In the July survey, ag economists who say the row crop side of agriculture isn’t in a recession, gave the following reasons:

“Farm program payments and strong corn exports. Land prices also do not appear to have declined, according to the August land report from USDA.”
“Although prices are currently low, production prospects are very good, supporting expected crop revenue and lowering crop cost of production per unit.”
“Prices and income are down sharply from their 2022 peak. Defining a ‘recession’ for a sector is difficult. To me, it implies a temporary downturn, but something like current prices appears more likely to be ‘the new normal’ than a temporary blip.”
Although crop farms have been facing considerable financial challenges, so far, farm finance has been sustained by cutting down on some of their working capital. I would worry about the actual (bigger) recession possibly to come. In my opinion, tariff effects will be less likely to take place immediately in this harvest season, but the shock (without negotiation scenario) will likely hit the farm input cost first, threatening farm financial health of 2026.”
“Government payments and crop insurance guarantees are removing the downside risk that would typically allow input costs to reset.”

Ohio State’s Carl Zulauf agrees a price squeeze is impacting margins for farmers, but a big piece of why he doesn’t think U.S. agriculture is in a recession is land values.

“It’s a price squeeze on the input prices versus the cost of the output prices,” Zulauf says. “But I think for the farm economy to be in a recession, you have to see some softening land prices both on the rental side and on the ownership side. And USDA just released on the first of August their latest land estimates, and I think a fair characterization of it is that land values were up, cash rent was stable to slightly up. That does not corroborate in my mind with a sector that’s in recession.”

American Farm Bureau Federal looks at how land values have trended over time. This is based on the latest UDSA NASS data.

(American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF))

USDA’s annual land survey released earlier this month shows on average, land real estate values came in at $4,170 per acre in 2025, which is a 4.3% increase from 2024.

Zulauf says you can make an argument that land values are holding steady because of government payments.

“But the point is that government payments are at least apparently keeping the land price in check,” he says. “And that’s a really big thing because of borrowing capacity and all that that goes along with asset prices.”

Not Just the Midwest and South Feeling the Financial Pinch

July Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lindsey Pound )

The latest Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor also asked which region of the country is seeing the most severe financial pressures impact farmers.

38% responded the Midwest
15% said the Mid-South
8% responded the West
8% also said the Northwest

“The first thing I have to remind everybody is we are incredibly diverse,” says Dan Sumner, an agricultural economist with the University of California, Davis. “So the top ag commodity in California is milk. And milk isn’t doing that bad these days in terms of prices. Beef is also a huge part of our economy. So I picked the two that are doing OK. The rest of them are struggling.”

He says from tree nuts to fruit and grapes, growers in California are also struggling with lower prices and higher costs.

He says the grape industry, especially wine grapes, are struggling with a demand problem. Tariffs and the uncertainty surrounding trade is also impact tree nuts and other fruits.

“Since China used to be such a big market for them, and China, you’re dealing with the government there. So you could write down what the tariffs are, and then you write down what the government policy says to the importers, and of course they’ve got their centrally planned economy. So it’s been tough on tree nuts with the loss of that Chinese market,” he says.

What to Watch Over the Next 12 Months

Economists say trade will play a major factor in the health of the ag economy over the next 12 months. It’s not just how the tariff issues are resolved, but with which countries the U.S. is able to strike trade deals.

“What happens with trade/tariffs is likely the biggest factor now and over the next 12 months across all of agriculture. I’ve made this statement in the past, but it continues to be the biggest wild card that could boost or harm the ag sector. Another factor I’m watching in the short term is crop size,” said one economist.

When asked to outline the two most important factors that could impact the ag economy over the next 12 months, economists varied in their responses, but said:

Trade negotiations
Government payments and farm safety net programs
Crop prices versus production costs
Strength in livestock markets
Biofuel policies
Interest Rates

Economists say provisions within the One Big Beautiful Bill are also important to agriculture over the next 12 months.

“The two most significant drivers are the recently passed Big Beautiful Bill that will spend about $50 billion on commodity programs over the next 10 years, as well as recently announced trade deals,” said an economist in the anonymous survey. “Increased reference prices in the BBB will help support farm income, and it appears the administration is making a point of securing deals for ag as part of the trade pacts being negotiated. These both bode well for agriculture.”

A Silent Truth Hidden in the Farm Economy: Farmer Suicides Are on the Rise

Tue, 05 Aug 2025 13:51:10 GMT

Signs of stress in the farm economy are everywhere you turn, and with corn futures hitting fresh lows again this week, crumbling commodity prices are painting a dreary outlook for 2025, and the financial pressures are causing another bleak reality: farmer suicides are also on the rise.

In 2024, used equipment prices were plummeting at auction, with values of larger horsepower tractors dropping more than 20% . As used equipment flooded the auction market, Alex Kerr, owner of Kerr Auction and Kerr Equipment , noticed another troubling trend.

“This is really odd for me,” Kerr said in a video he posted to social media last year. “Three tractors up here that I bought on auction, and I’m not going to tell you which ones, but they came off of suicide — the reason is that the farmers are no longer here. It’s the reason I’ve got the tractors.”

Kerr noticed the silent truth happening in the midst of the current downturn in the farm economy, which was the fact he was seeing an uptick in the amount of equipment coming to auction as a result of farmer suicide.

“If anybody needs to talk, call your friends, call us. We don’t need to sell you anything. I don’t want to buy more tractors this way,” Kerr went on to say in the video.

Kerr says he typically doesn’t know all the stories behind the tractors he sells, especially if it’s a consignment auction. As an auction company and used equipment dealer, his focus is on the numbers. But at this particular auction, he was compelled to do something.

“I noticed at one point after I had bought some stuff, and I had it all sitting on my lot together advertised for sale. I’m lining this stuff up, and it just kind of hit me. I’m like, ‘What happened to these guys to get them to a point they wanted to do that rather than continue on?’ I’m lining up those tractors, and I thought about it for a while and turned around and made the video,” Kerr says.

While there aren’t any stats on the exact number of farmer suicides happening across the U.S ., according to a CDC study published in January 2020, farmers are among the most likely to die by suicide, in comparison to other occupations. And with 259 farm bankruptcies filed between April 2024 and March 2025, it’s clear the financial stress on farms is only growing more severe this year.

“In most cases, if it’s a financial problem, the stereotypical answer people will tell you is, ‘Oh, keep your head up. It’ll get better.’ Well, if its a financial thing, the odds are it’s not going to get better. If you just keep digging the same hole, it only gets worse. So, you need to stop and make changes in your life or your business,” Kerr says.

Kerr’s video ultimately reached Bridgette Readel , a retired agronomist who is bringing more awareness to mental health among farmers through her social media following on X (formerly Twitter).

“To be honest, I got Alex’s video sent to me by a mutual friend — a farmer from Wisconsin. Alex had listened to one of the Twitter chats that I do on Fridays and heard the discussion which had been about farmer suicide, depression and anxiety,” Readel says. “Alex never wanted to step in front of the limelight, but he could see a trend, particularly in the geography where he works. And he wanted to do something just to raise a little bit of awareness.”

She says Kerr’s video struck a chord because not only was it bringing awareness to a topic not often discussed, but other farmers could relate to it.

“So many folks could recognize themselves in it: ‘That’s my same tractor’ or ‘I have thought about these very same thoughts or problems. How do I get away from them?’” Readel says. “For those who are closer to my age and remember what the ‘80s were like, there were a lot of farm ‘accidents’ that weren’t accidents. And now it’s a fear of what if myself, my neighbor, my brother, my sister or someone else is that next person?”

Agriculture is full of doers. If farmers see a problem, they immediately want to fix it. But when it comes to mental health, it’s not an easy fix — and not one that can be resolved on your own.

That’s why Readel says there’s one main message farmers need to hear right now: it’s okay to not be okay, but you have to ask for help.

“My message to farmers is to remember that you’re not alone, and when you see something with one of your friends or neighbors, ask them. Don’t be afraid. You don’t have to be a professional at it. You can help them find a professional, but sometimes it’s as simple as sitting in the buddy seat and asking how they’re doing. They might not answer you the first time, so ask it the second time,” she says.

As AgWeb reported in 2024, it’s important the friends, family, and business professionals close to farmers are prepared and able to effectively communicate in a mental health crisis. You can read more in this story, Your Mental Health Toolbox: How To Recognize The Warning Signs.

In the U.S., you can call or text the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline at 988, chat on 988lifeline.org, or text HOME to 741741 to connect with a crisis counselor.

What's Really Causing the Tight Tassel Wrap Pollination Problems This Year?

Mon, 28 Jul 2025 12:42:53 GMT

The view of the corn crop from the road this year looks good. Fields have lush green corn plants and even stands, which is why farmers had high hopes for bin-busting yields.

But as farmers wade into their fields and pull back the husks, some are finding an unpleasant surprise: an issue with overly tight wrapped tassels .

“It’s a very unique phenomenon we’re dealing with, and a lot of these issues have come from tassel wrapping,” says Dan Quinn, Extension corn specialist for Purdue University.

"Tassel wrap" showing up in WC Indiana (photos taken July 10), joining the party seen across much of the Midwest. Seems linked to hybrid, planting date, and pre-symptom temp swings. Potential pollination issues also observed ~10 days after symptoms.@PurdueAgronomy @PurdueAg pic.twitter.com/qVKDr7m1Th
— Dan Quinn (@PurdueCorn) July 21, 2025

Quinn started seeing the pollination problem in some of his own fields, and once he took a closer, he says it was quick to diagnose if you caught the field at the right time.

“It’s just a function of these tassels being almost stuck in the upper leaves,” he explains. “We’re seeing those upper leaves tightly wrap around the tassel, and in many cases it’s delaying the tassel emergence.”

He says that delay from the overly tight tassels is throwing off the synchronization of pollination at a critical time, and now it’s showing up in the form of poorly pollinated ears.

“The big thing with corn is we talk about the synchrony between pollen drop and the silk emergence,” Quinn says. “[Pollination] a very fairly short window in corn. Anything that throws out that timing can cause issues with pollination.”

What’s catching so many farmers by surprise is the fact crop conditions look phenomenal across many areas of the country this year thanks to good planting conditions and timely rains. In fact, USDA’s latest Crop Progress report shows nearly three-quarters of the nation’s corn crop is rated in good to excellent condition.

“You have to get in there and peel back the husks,” Quinn says. “You have to take a look at kernel development. Another thing we often look at is when silks, or the ovules on the kernel, are fertilized. When that occurs, the silks will detach. If you carefully pull back the husk, you have to be careful, and you can actually shake the ear to see which silks fall off or which ones actually stay attached.”

Pollination Problems in Iowa

Mark Licht, an Extension cropping systems specialist at Iowa State University, first started seeing corn pollination issues in early July .

“Some of those first tasseling fields were where this really started to show up,” Licht says. “I think that’s attributed to some of the characteristics around what’s causing it, and it kept going until probably about a week ago is when we kind of stopped seeing it in the field. But then, of course, farmers that had noticed the pollination issues, and that’s when, they were still getting agronomists, myself and others out to look at their fields.”

Tightly wrapped tassels in SW IN—seems to be hybrid specific. Planter was split in each field—The other hybrid and refuge shot normal tassels. pic.twitter.com/xyJFqaG4Oy
— Hillari Mason (@HillariMason) July 21, 2025

He says the tight tassel wrap usually lasts around three to five days and is noticeable in fields during that time. But it’s a short window that growers can see the tassel tight tassel wrap in their fields. And when it grows out of it, and the tassel blossoms out like normal.

That means if farmers didn’t notice the tight tassel in that short three to five day window, they might not even know pollination problems exist in their field until they actually walk into the field and check ears to see how the corn pollinated.

“If it unwrapped quickly, we might only see a dozen or two dozen kernels that were not pollinating,” Licht says. “Some of them that stayed wrapped up a little bit tighter, longer, we might see 25% to a third of that ear didn’t pollinate well.”

What’s the Worst-Case Scenario in Iowa?

For Licht, he has seen fields where eight out of 10 ears had issues.

“One of the fields that I was in, it was about 80% of the ears, and it was probably in that 25% of the ear with poor pollination,” he says. “So, this pollination issues [from tight tassel wrap] could be somewhat significant. That’s a worst-case scenario. Most of this is on the fields with pollination issues that I’ve seen are on the lighter side of things where it may only be a dozen kernels or so impacted on an ear, and it might only be 20% of ears impacted.”

At Least 10 States Are Reporting Pollination Problems From Overly Tight Wrapped Tassels

Licht says the problem is widespread, but in Iowa, it appears to be primarily isolated to the central and southeast portions of the state. He’s also heard reports of tight tassel wrap impacting pollination in Minnesota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Tennessee, Illinois and Indiana.

Add those seven states with reports of the problem in Missouri, Kansas and Ohio, and the total grows to 10 states seeing pollination issues this year.

What’s Really Causing the Tight Tassel Wrap Pollination Problems This Year?

Plants experience tight tassel wrap each year, according to Licht, but he says the crop typically grows out of it before pollination. This year, the leaves stayed tightly wrapped around the tassel as the plant started to pollinate, which is where the issues occurred.

“I think we do see these plants wrap up each year. Typically it’s more in the mid-vegetative time period, so eighth leaf stage up to 13 or 14 leaf stage,” he says. “This is really rare when it’s wrapping around the tassel as the tassel is starting to shed pollen. I’ve been an agronomist for 20 plus years, and I think this is only the second time I’ve seen it.”

Record overnight temperatures.

(Eric Snodgrass, Nutrien )

Both Licht and Quinn attribute this rare occurrence of tight tassel wrap during pollination to key environmental issues, including a lot of soil moisture and a sudden switch to high temperatures. The near-record overnight temperatures are also thought to have aided the problem. It was a “perfect storm” for issues to exist, and the hybrids impacted may have been more susceptible to rapid growth syndrome this spring.

“We had rapid growth at the end of that vegetative development,” explains Licht.

Can Bad Genetics or Poor Breeding Also Be to Blame?

Farmers are looking for someone, or something, to blame. After all, they have a lot riding on this year’s crop. And considering the issue is occurring across a wide geography of the Corn Belt, some critics are questioning if the issue is all weather or environmental related.

So that begs the following questions: Is it bad genetics? Is it poor breeding, or any one thing to pinpoint as the cause? Those are the questions we asked Licht.

“I don’t think so,” Licht says. “Yes, it is hybrid specific, and it’s happening across all brands, but some of the hybrids I’m hearing about were planted last year and the year before, but the problem didn’t show up. I think it’s really a combination of the hybrid and the environment coming together perfectly, and it’s more prolific this year.”

Kind of depressing pic.twitter.com/Mgf8dJd5dz
— Lance Schiele (@schiele_lance) July 22, 2025

The Issue Is Happening Across Several Seed Brands

Similar to Licht’s assessment, Quinn says it seems to be an issue across seed brands .

“I think this issue has been the biggest surprise because the areas where we see significant tassel wrap and the pollination issues are areas you would not expect to have any issues,” Quinn says. “The fields I’ve walked are some of the best corn fields in the state. Iowa has a lot of issues with [tight tassel wrap], but they have outstanding crop conditions in that state.”

Add ND to the list of states with wrapped tassels pic.twitter.com/VyeQ41og6s
— Blase Hendrickson (@hendricksonfarm) July 23, 2025

Quinn says from the fields he’s scouted, the issue is specific to a late April or first week of May planting date.

“A lot of that corn was reaching pollination in the past couple of weeks,” Quinn says. “If you look at our planting progress, on May 5, we had about 25% of the corn acres planted in Indiana. Based on that number, I would say maybe 10% to 20% of the acres can potentially be impacted in Indiana.”

He says best-case scenario is the tight wrapped tassel caused no pollination issues. Worst case, from what he’s seen, is 20% to 30% of a field is impacted by pollination issues.
___________________________________________________

Watch the full discussion with Purdue’s Dan Quinn exclusively on Farm Journal TV .
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Quinn says that’s what makes it so hard to quantify the impact of pollination problems on the size of this year’s crop.

“We still need a lot more time to assess these fields, walk these fields, pull ears and take a look at pollination to get a better handle on the magnitude of it, Quinn says.

Why Isn’t the Corn Market Taking Note?

At the beginning of July, market analysts and traders were continuing to ramp up yield forecasts, which sprouted from the fact crop conditions are so strong, and moisture from the Gulf continued to pump rainfall across the Midwest. Some yield forecasts were as high as 189 bu. per acre, which would be well above the 181 bu. per acre national yield forecast currently projected by USDA.

With no way of knowing the scope or severity of the pollination problems, market analysts say the U.S. corn crop is still shaping up to be good. The pollination problems could trim a few bushels off the extremely high national yield forecasts being thrown around.

“From our vantage point, yes, it does help temper some of the 185, 186, 187 yield forecasts?” says Jim Emter, CEO of Van Ahn and Company. “We’re more in that tune right now of a 179 to 184 [bu. per acre national yield forecast]. It feels like we’re in a race to print the biggest one right now by a lot of people.”

Still, farmers are frustrated. They see the social media posts about pollination problems, and then some walk their own fields, only to find pollination issues firsthand. They’re frustrated the corn market isn’t reacting to what could be an unexpected production problem this year.

AgTraderTalk’s Garrett Toay was on “U.S. Farm Report” this week and was asked why the issue isn’t moving the markets yet.

“Nobody knows,” Toay says. “I’ve talked to industry contacts; I think it’s a fairly widespread issue. It’s not brand specific as we originally thought early on, and what I’m being told is the corn plant grew too quickly in some areas. It works itself out in some areas, but I think the problem of the market is it’s not too concerned about it or not paying attention to it because we don’t know how widespread it is. We don’t know if it will even have an impact on the actual yield. But it’s one of those things we’ll trade when we get there sort of thing.”

Puzzling Problem

It’s a puzzling problem, especially in fields where planting got off to a strong start, and from farmers to agronomists, it’s catching everyone by surprise.

“That’s been the biggest surprise is that we can still have issues even when things look really good out there,” Quinn says.

__________________________________________________

Watch the full discussion with Iowa State’s Mark Licht exclusively on Farm Journal TV.

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Near Ideal Growing Conditions?

There’s no secret that pollination problems are an issue in corn this year. However, critics question how weather is playing a factor when the U.S. has experienced near ideal growing conditions this year.

Nutrien’s Eric Snodgrass says moisture has been almost ideal, but the overnight temperatures mgith be playing a factor into the issues farmers are seeing. Watch his discussion, along with the rainfall forecast for the next few weeks.

The Big Debate: Just How High Could the National Corn Yield Go This Year?

Wed, 09 Jul 2025 15:28:43 GMT

If you think it’s too early to talk about possibilities surrounding the national yield this year, you aren’t alone. The yield debate is already firing up on social media, stoking anger and an intense debate, but that’s not stopping traders. As corn crop conditions improve, and big yield numbers are being thrown around, it’s pressuring corn prices, with many farmers staring at cash corn with a $3 handle.

Rains moved across the Midwest over the weekend and early this week, aiding crop conditions. Those rains, combined with the fact the U.S. didn’t announce a trade deal with China yet, pressured prices even more. And as analysts explain, you can’t deny the U.S. corn crop could be a monster, even with the possibility of an increased number of prevent plant acres in the South.

“Your rain shower pairs with all the rest that are making the shades of drought lighter with each passing week,” says Mike North, president of producer division at Ever.Ag. “As conditions improve, talk of higher yields in the July WASDE are becoming more plausible when comparing current crop progress ratings to similar years in the past. Bigger yields make the possibility of a 2-billion-bushel ending stocks number more believable”

Crop Conditions Continue to Improve

Here’s a look at USDA’s crop condition ratings released Monday, which continued the trend of improving crop conditions. Nationally, corn is rated 74% in good to excellent condition, which is a one point increase in just a week. But the bigger story is the fact this is the third-highest rating for this week in the past 10 years.

The best conditions are highlighted in the dark green, which include:

Colorado: 90% good to excellent
Iowa: 86% good to excellent
North Carolina: 78% good to excellent
Pennsylvania: 78% good to excellent

It’s not perfect across all the “I” states. Southern Illinois and Indiana suffered a wet spring, with trouble getting the crop planted this year. And prior to this week, there were dry pockets in the northern part of Illinois, as well.

USDA says 68% of Illinois’ corn is rated good to excellent with 10% rated poor to very poor. In Indiana, the corn crop has a 63% good to excellent rating today, whereas 11% of the crop is in the poor to very poor category.

The U.S. Could Crush the National Yield Record

Still, when you look at the overall crop condition ratings, this chart by Ever.Ag shows ratings are historically high. And while USDA’s crop condition ratings don’t translate to a specific yield, with strong conditions, it’s possible the U.S. will not only see a national record corn yield this year, but crush the previous record.

U.S. corn crop condition ratings compared to the trend.

(Ever.Ag)

“The chatter’s out there,” says Joe Vaclavik of Standard Grain. “You hear the talk of the potential for something in the mid 180s, even as high as 190 [bu. per acre yield]. We haven’t been above trend in U.S. corn yields since 2018. That was the last time we were above trend. But there was a string of years, 2014 through 2018, we were above trend by a few percentage points every single one of those years. If you end up 2% above trend this year, you’re close to 185 bu. per acre. If you ended up 5% above the trend, you’re at 190.”

Considering the U.S. national corn yield has never topped 180 bu. per acre, that would be a huge jump. However, Vaclavik says he doesn’t like throwing out those big yield numbers so early, as there are other factors that also matter to the market.

“The fact that we’ve got so many acres, the fact that maybe farmers reduced inputs, but the crop ratings alone in a vacuum would suggest that those sort of numbers are possible,” Vaclavik says. “I’m a little skeptical, but the statistics would say it’s a possibility.”

‘This is a Special Corn Crop’

AgResource Company founder and CEO Dan Basse agrees with Vaclavik. The national corn yield could be in the range of 185 bu. to 190 bu. per acre, especially if the weather forecasts continue to show favorable conditions.

“I hate to say it, but as we start to model out condition ratings and yield, yes,” Basse says. “We need to get into August before we get some solidarity in all of this, but today it looks good. The weather forecast for the next couple of weeks look favorable, cooler temperatures with enough rain. So this is a special corn crop.”

Record Prevent Plant Acres Cause Devastation for Southern Farmers

Fri, 30 May 2025 19:11:25 GMT

Farm Journal first reported on the somber situation in the South in April . The financial pain of growing cotton this year created a bleak outlook. At that time, National Cotton Council’s Gary Adams said, “We’ve gone beyond just losing money now that we’re to the point of losing the farm.”

Since then, the situation has grown even worse for farmers in the mid-South. It’s turned into a nightmare, with relentless rains causing devastation and preventing farmers from planting crops this year.

Wettest Spring in 133 Years

“It’s been a challenge,” says Franklin Fogleman, who farms in Marion, Ark., just across the bridge from Memphis, Tenn. “Not only have we been facing economic challenges, but we seem to have faced rain since the 1st of April that is unprecedented.”

The wettest spring in 133 years is wreaking havoc on farm fields, after what farmers thought was a strong and early start to planting.

“We got off to a very good start. The last 10 days or so of March, we had a very good run. We were in a very good position with an early start to the crop. It was dry, crops were coming up and looked good,” he says. “We received a rain around the 1st of April that wound up totaling 13" over a couple of days. We lost a substantial amount of crop at that time to flooding.”

That water stuck around for two to three weeks. They got back in the field just before Easter, before getting rained out again for a month.

“Then we received approximately 5" of rain over four days, and we’re back to having about 1,000 acres of the farm underwater that was planted and had small crops that probably won’t survive,” Fogleman says.

Farming Legacies on the Line

Fogleman’s family has been farming here since 1849. And this year, not only is it the acres he won’t be able to plant, but also the growing number of acres that need to be replanted. He’s running out of time to do both.

“We probably have 1,500 acres of rice, and I’m down to about 200 acres of beans to plant for the first time. I will probably have another 700 — maybe 800 — acres of things to replant again,” he says. “But the thing that’s tricky about that math is the roughly 1,500 acres of rice that we haven’t gotten planted, we won’t plant a crop on.”

Fogleman says once the water finally recedes on those acres — which could take days — it’s too late to plant rice. They’ve looked into planting soybeans instead, but the economics don’t support it.

“The window has basically closed on us in the last couple of days,” he says.

But the thing that’s tricky about that math is the roughly 1,500 acres of rice that we haven’t gotten planted, we won’t plant a crop on.

Franklin Fogleman, Arkansas

Farmers Face Historic Prevent Plant Acreage Numbers

That’s the reality for farmers from southern Missouri, Tennessee, Arkansas and Mississippi.

“The weather has just been terrible,” says Robert Agostinelli, who farms in Coahoma and Quitman Counties in Mississippi. ”We’ve attempted to plant four or five times, and every time we got rain within 24 hours. So, out of about 2,300 acres of cotton, we got about 550 acres planted. That’s all.”

Just 24% of his crop. That’s all this Mississippi farmer got planted this year, which marks a first.

“This has never happened before. I’ve been farming for 41 years, and this has never happened. It was just unheard of,” he says.

You can hear the devastation in farmers’ voices. What’s even more gut wrenching is Agostinelli took out 60% crop insurance coverage with ECO on top, but the ECO doesn’t cover prevent plant.

“Looking back on it, if we would have thought this was a possibility, we probably would have taken out different insurance or something,” he adds.

This has never happened before. I’ve been farming for 41 years, and this has never happened. It was just unheard of.

Robert Agostinelli, Mississippi

That’s the story for farmer after farmer. Crop insurance will help, but it’s not even coming close to making them whole.

“It helps, it’s better than not having it. But the truth is it’s like putting a band-aid somewhere that you need stitches. It’s not enough, it just enough to survive, if that,” Fogleman says.

“Farmers Are Hurting... They’re Hurting Bad”

Andy Graves, a crop consultant in Clarksdale, Miss., adds, “These guys are hurting. They’re hurting bad, and this isn’t what we needed.”

Graves owns Graves Agronomy Service. Even through this rain, he’s up early walking fields and doesn’t like what he sees: flooded out fields, suffocated crops that are barely hanging on and fields overgrown with weeds.

“I don’t know what’s fixing to happen with what’s going on up here right now because it’s as close to disaster as I’ve ever seen on the cotton side, anyway,” Graves says.

We needed a home run, and we’re not going to get it.

Andy Graves, Mississippi

Graves is in the middle of cotton country. It’s a big cotton area with seven gins within 30 miles. Even before the wet weather hit, cotton was facing a mountain of challenges, the main one being price.

“It’s not good. It is more of disbelief, honestly,” Graves says. “I get up every day, and I can’t believe this has happened. We’ve had two record crop years the past two years. And most everybody has not shown a profit, so it was bleak. It was a really rough winter trying to talk to some people about what we’re going to do this year. We needed a home run and we’re not going to get it.”

Today, about 65% of the cotton in Graves’ area is planted.

“A big majority of that just went in and got 6" of rain behind it,” Graves says. “I’m hoping for the best, but it’s cold and wet right now. I’ve never seen a spring like this.”

Cotton Isn’t the Only Crop Swamped By Heavy Rains and Low Prices

It’s not just cotton that farmers are battling. Soybeans are also struggling in the ground, and the corn is wind whipped or battered by hail and sand.

“We’ve had everything. It’s a mess,” Graves says.

Even if the rain stops, the other battle for farmers in the area is the weeds that are already too tall to effectively control.

“We’re going to throw everything we can at it and do the best we can to knock it back, but losing dicamba is going to hurt in the soybean crop. A lot of my cotton up here is Enlist cotton, so I still do have the Enlist technology. We can probably clean a lot of this up with combinations of Liberty, Roundup and Enlist, but it’s going to cost a fortune to do this.”

Farmers on the Brink of Going Under

Graves has been a crop consultant for nearly 30 years. He says without any disaster aid or help, he doesn’t know if some of these Mississippi farmers will survive.

“We have some really strong farmers up here, really strong,” Graves says. “They got that way because they farm very efficient, very smart and don’t make any dumb moves. We’ve had two record yields up here with cotton, soybeans and corn the last couple of years, but they’re financial losses. Now the prices are lower this year, and we’re faced with what we got now with weather. So, I don’t know what’s going to happen.”

Devastation Hits Infrastructure and Industries Farming Supports

The devastation isn’t just impacting farms. It’s the infrastructure and industries farming supports.

“It rolls downhill,” Graves says. “I mean, if they’re out of business, I’m out of the business. We’ve got gins, airports, chemical applicators — we have a community. It’s a tough deal to be looking at right now, and it’s not just here. I’ve talked to some people in Arkansas all the way up to Missouri in the past week. It’s all over the place.”

“This is Worse Than a Drought”

Farmers know how emotionally and mentally challenging it can be to cope with a drought. But with this relentless rain this spring, farmers can’t even get their crops in the ground, and that makes it worse than dealing with drought.

“In our area of the Delta, we have irrigation. So, when it’s dry, we can cure that problem,” Fogleman says. “It can be an expensive solution, but it is a solution that’s better than nothing. When your crops are underwater, when it is too wet to get into fields to fertilize or when it’s too wet get into the fields to spray, there’s really nothing that you can do.”

Agostinelli says for cotton, it was in the red any way he looked at it this year.

“This is the kicker. The price is so low that if we farmed it, we will lose even more money. That’s how bad it is,” he says. “It’s very stressful and if there’s no assistance coming, I can just see a lot of farmers going out this year.”

Fogleman adds, “Farmers are pretty resilient and they have a lot of fight, but I have to admit, as I talk to my friends, as I talk my neighbors, these are trying times and people are feeling the impacts of it.”

This is the kicker. The price is so low that if we farmed it, we will lose even more money. That’s how bad it is. It’s very stressful and if there’s no assistance coming, I can just see a lot of farmers going out this year.

Robert Agostinelli, Mississippi

Your Next Read: Cotton Farmers Describe Somber Situation: ‘We’ve Gone Beyond Losing Money to Now Losing the Farm’

Current Weather Pattern Set To Take A Dramatic Shift: What You Need to Know

Tue, 27 May 2025 17:11:47 GMT

The forecast is calling for a hot and dry June, which is a stark contrast from the cool and wet weather pattern that’s been dominating. As rains continue to suffocate the southern Corn Belt and the mid-South, those areas could face higher amounts of prevent plant this year, while much of the West will turn dry and warm by next week.

Past 72 hour precipitation totals.

(Pivotal Weather )

Over Memorial Day weekend, parts of Oklahoma, southern Missouri and Arkansas saw up to 5" of rainfall. Texas also saw rain, with severe storms even producing large hail. Posts on social media showed grapefruit-sized hail pounding areas of the state.

Never seen hail this big before. In Afton, Texas now !! #txwx pic.twitter.com/tYMM7TML8n
— Pie☈☈e-Ma☈c Doucet (@PMDStormchaser) May 25, 2025

A massive 6-inch, 1.5-pound hailstone, roughly cantaloupe-sized, fell near Afton, Texas, leaving locals stunned. Witness Colt Forney captured the incredible moment! ( May25, 2025)

Have you ever seen hail this insanely huge? pic.twitter.com/efXuX9dA7j
— Weather Monitor (@WeatherMonitors) May 26, 2025

The forecast for the rest of this week shows that pattern shifting even farther south, with the Southeast seeing more than 4" of rain.

“We saw places in Missouri, Iowa, Minnesota — especially the Dakotas — that picked up well over 3" of rain,” says Michael Clark of BamWX . “Now going forward, the forecast for the next seven days is a much drier outlook for those areas with the heaviest rain focused across the deep South — where they don’t need it. That includes southern Missouri, southern Kansas, Oklahoma and Arkansas. They don’t need rain there right now.”

Precipitation forecast over the next 72 hours.

(Pivotal Weather )

But it’s not just the rain meteorologists are watching. The cooler temperatures are also a concern.

“This map [pictured below] shows the growing degree heat units and the anomaly, or the departure from normal, for the next 10 days,” Clark says. “You can see nobody’s really running above. We’re running quite a bit below, so we’re going to struggle to really accumulate any heating degree or growing degree days right now.”

Cooler temperatures have created a problem with growing degree units (GDUs) to end May.

(BAM Weather )

Those cooler temperatures will be short-lived, though. NOAA’s heat index forecast for the first week of June shows south Texas seeing temperatures rise above 100°F. Pockets of the Plains, Midwest, Southwest and Southeast will hit 85°F to 95°F.

Heat index forecast for the first week of June.

(NOAA )

This could be a precursor for what’s to come the remainder of June, according to Clark.

“The focus is turning to a much warmer temperature pattern this summer,” Clark says. “Our precipitation outlook for June features a risk for below-normal precipitation, and really, we might already be seeing hints of that. But it’s normal to above-normal in the rainfall department in the East and Southeast right now for the month of June.”

Precipitation outlook for June.

(BAM Weather )

Temperature outlook for June.

(BAM Weather )

The hot and dry forecasts aren’t new. Meteorologists have been concerned about dryness in the Western Corn Belt since winter. But Clark says the active weather pattern we’ve seen this spring could put those forecasts on a detour this summer.

“The models have had a tendency to dry this up and pull rain out of the forecast, but we keep seeing cold fronts and big, active pattern signals coming through. We do think that ends, but some persistence in the pattern overall might yield that we see a couple more chances of rain and cooler shots of air in the first half of June. Maybe that pattern shows up the second half of June into July,” Clark says.

The good news is leading into that drier and warmer spell to start June, the recent rains have helped improve the soil moisture.

Soil moisture map shows improvement in parts of the upper Midwest, South and West.

(BAM Weather)

As More Farmers See Initial ECAP Payments Hit, When Should They Expect The Remaining 15%?

Tue, 15 Apr 2025 17:20:18 GMT

Back in December 2024, Congress passed the American Relief Act, part of which included $10 billion in Emergency Commodity Assistance Program (ECAP) payments. Farmers are now reporting they’re starting to see those payments hit their bank accounts this week.

“Remember, they’re only getting 85% now because there was only $10 billion allocated. So the remaining 15%, plus or minus, will be issued later. I think farmers should collect the full 15%. If not, it will be really, really close,” says Farm CPA Paul Neiffer.

The emergency relief was created as a way to help offset financial losses for agricultural producers last year, and USDA then had 90 days to roll out the program. Farmers can sign up until August 15.

Farmers can use the ECAP calculator provided by USDA-FSA to get an idea of what their payment could be potentially.

(Lori Hays)

Timing of Remaining 15% of Expected Payment
The next question is: when will USDA issue the remaining 15%? Neiffer expects those payments to be issued shortly after the initial signup deadline ends.

“That likely won’t be issued until after August 15, because the sign up period doesn’t end until then. And that seems like a very long sign up period for this, but there will be certain farmers who don’t have their acres in the database, so to speak, and they’ll have to get those updated with FSA.”

According to Neiffer, there’s no reason to believe USDA won’t issue the remaining 15% of expected payments. He even says they probably could’ve issued 95% of the payments to start.

“Remember, these payment rates got reduced for corn, soybeans and wheat by a little bit,” Neiffer says. “Even at the higher payment rates with all the acres I saw, it was only about $10.2 billion. And then by the time you factor in payment limits and so on and so forth, they’re going to be under $10 billion. So, farmers should get the whole 15%.”

Payments will be made to farmers on a flat per-acre rate on 100% of planted acres, or 50% of those prevented from planting.

Neiffer says he’s hearing the initial signup period has gone smoothly. Not only has it been quick, payments are then happening within weeks of signing up.

Specific Requirements For Eligibility
To be eligible, farmers must meet the following requirements, according to Betty Resnick, American Farm Bureau Federation economist:

Be actively engaged in farming
Have an interest in input expenses for a covered commodity
Have reported acreage of eligible commodities to FSA for the 2024 crop year planted and prevent plant acres to FSA on an FSA-578, Report of Acreage form
Have reported acres that were prevented from being planted to FSA for the 2024 crop year on an CCC-576 Notice of Loss form (if applicable)

Eligible Crops And Rates
Commodities included in the program are:

Wheat: $30.69
Corn: $42.91
Sorghum: $42.52
Barley: $21.67
Oats: $77.66
Upland cotton & extra-long staple cotton: $84.74
Long & medium grain rice: $76.94
Peanuts: $75.51
Soybeans: $29.76
Dry peas: $16.02
Lentils: $19.30
Small chickpeas: $31.45
Large chickpeas: $24.02

Eligible Oilseeds:

Canola: $31.83
Crambe: $19.08
Flax: $20.97
Mustard: $11.36
Rapeseed: $23.63
Safflower: $26.32
Sesame: $16.83
Sunflower: $27.23

To calculate your potential payment, use this USDA calculator. Producers can also contact their local FSA offices with additional questions.

Hear more details from Neiffer about not only the program, but also possible tax changes this year.

Cotton Farmers Describe Somber Situation: 'We've Gone Beyond Losing Money to Now Losing the Farm'

Mon, 07 Apr 2025 17:49:05 GMT

In many areas of the South, cotton is king. It’s a dependable crop, and in turn, it’s made farmers loyal to what they grow. But with cotton prices falling below farmers’ breakeven, that crop is causing financial pain to even grow.

“I’ve been farming for 48 years, and I can’t remember anything in a year that’s been as challenging as the way it’s been the last couple of years,” says Franz Rowland, who grows cotton in Boston, Ga.

The south Georgia farmer says cheap cotton prices are one problem, and skyrocketing input costs are another.

“We’re going to plant cotton and don’t even have a clue if we’re going to get our money back,” he says. “There’s no farm bill to support us, and the reference price is so low that it’s not anything that we can depend on. So, we’re going to put several million dollars in the ground and don’t even know if we’re going to get it back.”

Cotton is a high input crop that requires a heavy dose of fertilizer and intensive pest and weed management. But in addition to that, today’s cotton farmers are dealing with the rising cost of equipment.

“It used to be a cost, but it wasn’t a terribly high cost. And today, one of the highest costs we have is machinery,” Rowland says. “Cotton pickers are over $1 million. And nobody makes a cotton picker but John Deere. So, we don’t have a choice.”

The Death of Agriculture in West Texas?
It’s a situation that’s not unique to just south Georgia, though. Cotton farmers across the entire U.S. are grappling with the same uneasiness of growing cotton in 2025. In West Texas, it’s especially hard.

The West Texas area is critical for cotton production. USDA shows Texas growers produce 42% of the country’s cotton . The area surrounding Lubbock, Texas, is known as the largest cotton patch in the U.S. And right now, nearly 68% of Texas is dealing with some level of drought.

The current U.S. Drought Monitor shows nearly 68% of Texas is experiencing drought. 29% of the state is in the “extreme drought” category.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

“It feels like the death of agriculture somewhat in our area. Dryland farms really don’t pencil out on hardly anything,” says Heath Heinrich, a cotton and sorghum farmer located south of Lubbock in Slaton, Tex.

Heinrich grows cotton, sorghum and wheat just south of Lubbock, Texas, and he says it feels like a losing battle for farming in his area this year.

“We’re surrounded by political movements. We’re surrounded by tariffs, by markets, and then Mother Nature and business on top of it,” Heinrich says. “And it’s like we are trying to battle so many fronts right now that it’s hard to tell if we’re gaining any ground, you know, or if it’s leading to our demise.”

Drought has gripped Heinrich’s area for multiple years. It’s so dry they’ve struggled to even get the wheat that was planted in the fall to grow this past winter.

“We’re still waiting on the seed to sprout on two-thirds of our stuff,” Heinrich says.

Beyond Losing Money
As president and CEO of National Cotton Council (NCC), Gary Adams sees and hears the somber situation for U.S. cotton farmers from coast to coast. Adams says the outlook for 2025 is even worse than 2024.

“We’ve gone beyond just losing money now that we’re to the point of losing the farm. Unfortunately, where the industry is, that’s what it looks like as we’re going into 2025,” Adams says.

Adams says there’s a lot to unpack in explaining why cotton prices are so low, but the biggest reason is dwindling demand.

“If we look at world mill-use for cotton, it’s estimated right now around 117 to 118 million bales. Well, you don’t have to go too far back to see when we were consuming 123 million bales,” Adams says.

China Moves Away From U.S. Cotton
The biggest reason for the drop in world demand, according to National Cotton Council, is more competition from man-made fibers.

“You look at polyester production in China right now, they produce probably somewhere on the order of about 225 to 230 million bale equivalents. They’re almost twice the size of global cotton demand,” Adams says.

The dwindling picture of U.S cotton exports.

(National Cotton Council)

At the same time, big cotton producers, such as Brazil and Australia, are staring at big crops, which is helping global competition for the smaller market that’s left.

“We are an export-dependent industry,” Adams says. “About 85% of our cotton production is going to the export market. A strong dollar doesn’t help that competitiveness either.”

China is still a larger buyer of U.S. cotton, but there are two reasons they are buying less than they used to:

The switch to synthetic, man-made fibers
The last trade war

“If we go back to 2018, China was buying about 3 to 4 million bales. All of a sudden, we immediately saw the market share the U.S. had go from about 42% to 17%, and prices went from the mid-80s down into the mid-60s. We’re already starting in a depressed situation in terms of where market prices are compared to where they were.”

Cotton has lost market share relative to man-made fibers (MMF).

(National Cotton Council )

With so much focus on trade in Washington this week, NCC wants the Trump administration to enforce trade agreements already in place.

“A big concern we have is that you have non-qualifying product that comes in from third countries that should not be reaping the benefits of the trade agreement,” Adams says.

Some of the biggest offenders, according to NCC, are India, Pakistan and China.

“When you look at the trade date of the imported product coming in, there’s probably some Chinese, Indian and Pakistan yarn and fabric coming into those countries and then likely making its way into the U.S. in a finished good as a duty-free product,” Adams says. “That’s really where you’ve got to crack down because it ought to be either U.S. fiber or yarns produced in the region that allow you to gain the duty-free access into the U.S. market.”

Drumming Up New Domestic Demand
The cotton industry hopes to also capitalize on the momentum from the president’s America First Agenda , as one of the big domestic issues is not as much American-grown cotton is being milled here, either.

Textile/Apparel production has moved out of the U.S.

(National Cotton Council (NCC) )

In 2004, 6.7 million bales were used by U.S. cotton mills
In 2024, that dropped to 1.7 million
That equals a nearly 75% decline in the past 20 years.

One way NCC hopes to help revive the U.S. cotton industry longer term is by boosting domestic demand.

“As an industry, we are looking at some opportunities to perhaps use tax credits to reward the use of U.S. cotton in the supply chain by a brand and retailer. In other words, add some additional value to pull U.S. cotton through to the end product,” Adams says.

Farm Bill is No. 1 Priority
In the short-term, the NCC is pushing Congress to complete a new farm bill - one that applies to the 2025 crop.

“I just can’t state this strongly enough: We have to have a farm bill done by Congress this year that applies to the 2025 crop,” Adams says. “The economic assistance that was approved in the end-of-year package last year was a critical lifeline that’s allowing a number of producers to continue to get financing, but it was simply a short-term fix. It doesn’t address the 2025 crop. That’s why we’ve got to have something that helps meet some of the financial needs that producers are under right now.”

That dire plea for a farm bill is being echoed by cotton farmers, as well.

“We have to have a farm bill. Farmers can’t survive without a farm bill,” Rowland says. “The government came up with disaster and emergency relief programs, and that’s fine. But to hang your hat on something, so to speak, we’ve got to have a farm bill with reference prices that are current to the input costs.”

Rowland says the cotton industry is to a point that they are already seeing younger producers get forced out due to the lack of financing.

“What I hear from the younger guys is they’re having a really hard time getting financed. They can’t pay back the 2024 operating loan, so the banks are not wanting to go with them again in 2025,” Rowland says. “The money we got here lately from the government helped a lot, but it didn’t solve the problem.”

Rowland says the current farm bill is irrelevant, even calling it “worthless” for cotton.

“Without a farm bill, sooner or later, we’re going to be doomed,” he says.

Excitement for 2025 is Gone
Typically, planting season is one of the most exciting times of the year for Rowland, and one that signals hope and new beginnings. But this year, that excitement is gone.

“Typically my adrenaline starts going. I get all excited about making a crop and putting in a crop, and this year is completely different,” he says. “It’s just hard to get motivated to spend this money. I just spent $50,000 today on fertilizer and chemicals. Am I going to get that back? So, I’m not excited about it at all.”

Rowland says if prices don’t improve this year, it’s not just the fact he won’t be able to cover the high input costs he’s already paid, he says he could be staring at losses in the millions.

Your Next Read:

New Warning Signs Agriculture Is In A Recession
Will There Be A New Farm Bill This Year?

"The Little Farmer": The Super Bowl Commercial that Captured Hearts and Put the Spotlight on Agriculture

Fri, 14 Feb 2025 21:06:11 GMT

It was a Super Bowl commercial with a story, and one that sprouted from a real potato grower in Wisconsin. Frito Lay and PepsiCo helped put the spotlight on agriculture Super Bowl Sunday, while also celebrating real farmers.

“There’s a lot of pride that goes into growing anything in agriculture, says Jeremie Pavelski, a farmer in Hancock, Wis. , which is located in the central part of the state.

Pavelski is a fifth-generation farmer. The potatoes Pavelski produces go to Lay’s, and it’s something his family has done for 71 years.

“Most of our potatoes are going there specialized for going into potato chips, which is fairly unique,” he says.

The Super Bowl commercial that aired on Sunday was inspired by Pavelski’s story, after he hosted a farm tour for Frito Lay one day.

“They thought that was a great story that needed to be shared, and we weren’t expecting it to be shared on the big stage,” says Pavelski. “But it it was, and it’s a very emotional, very touching commercial. And it’s very rewarding, especially to be working with such great partners.”

The group was especially touched by Pavelski’s 7-year-old daughter, who is passionate abut the potatoes her family produces.

“Seeing my daughter’s eyes light up when she is going out in the middle of the field and teaching her friends where food comes from. And seeing her when she’s got her boots on, splashing around in the mud...and the joy, the delight on her face when she opens a bag of Lay’s and says, ‘I helped grow this’ along with our team, that is one of the most honestly inspirational things,” he says.

Pavelski’s daughter wasn’t the girl who actually appeared in the commercial, but it’s her story that helped the team at Frito Lay dream up an extremely touching commercial, while also helping bring light to the fact those Lay’s potato chips are grown by real farmers on real farms, like Pavelski’s.

“You can see what it took, years of hard work to do and years of learning, whether it’s from the growing side of things or from our daughter and just seeing what ends up becoming of this, and how it can really bring joy to a lot of people. I get a little choked up here, almost brings a tear to my eye,” he says.

One little potato with one big dream was the theme of the commercial. It was also a nod to U.S. family farmers all across the country — families who are the foundation of the food that fuels us all.

Pavelski was named a Top Producer of the Year finalist in 2018. You can read his story here .

The True Cost of What Farmers Argue is a Broken Immigration System in the U.S.

Tue, 11 Feb 2025 19:56:35 GMT

Situated on the west side of the San Joaquin Valley, Joe Del Bosque is a first-generation farmer in central California . The son of migrant workers, he conquered the American dream by starting his own farming operation in California in 1985.

“My father was a farm manager, so I grew up on a farm doing exactly what I’m doing today,” Del Bosque says.

He grows organic melons, including cantaloupes, honey dew and watermelons. He also grows organic processing tomatoes, as well as almonds and cherries. Del Bosque is one of the largest, if not the largest, melon grower for Whole Foods.

A Crop That Must Be Hand-Picked

Del Bosque says a lot has changed in his 40 years of running his own farm, but what hasn’t changed is the fact that most of what he produces on his operation has to be hand-picked.

“Melons are highly perishable,” he says. “When they’re ready, they’ve got to be picked.”

Del Bosque says if their crew would miss even a couple days of work, the farm would be at risk of losing a crop.

“The produce has to be picked by hand by people who can see the fruit. And these people are skilled and seeing ripe fruit and how to pick it,” he explains.

The Need for Seasonal Labor

Del Bosque and other California growers rely heavily on seasonal labor. His produce is ready to be harvested between June and October, and during those crucial months. Del Bosque relies on 150 seasonal employees to help pick the fruit.

“We have scaled back,” Del Bosque says. “I would say 6 or 8 years ago; we were at probably 300 to 350 employees.

Between water issues and the switch from conventional farming to organic, which reduced their acres, Del Bosque now employs half of what he did eight years ago. And still, one of his biggest challenges is finding enough labor.

“It’s not been easy, but we have found enough labor,” Del Bosque adds. “We try to focus mostly on local labor. That doesn’t mean they’re not immigrant labor; they are immigrants who just live locally.”

Mass Deportation Concerns

They also have crews that come from Arizona for just the season, but one thing they’re no longer able to do is find seasonal labor from Mexico that work for a few months and then return back home.

“During the Obama years, he tightened the border tremendously. And sometimes both people couldn’t come anymore. So that’s why we tried to focus more on getting people that were living permanently here in this country,” Del Bosque says.

That’s when the struggles with labor shortages started for Del Bosque and other farmers, with mass deportations in his own community.

“He tightened the border a tremendous amount,” he adds. “He deported more people than Trump and Biden put together. He departed almost 3 million people, which is a lot of people, during his two terms. I’ve heard that it was an average of 1,000 people per day. So, yes, labor got very tight then. That was when we felt probably the most of labor shortages and we lost fruit sometimes during those terms.”

As the Trump Administration took office, promises of immigration crackdown and mass deportations are back in the focus again.

According to the latest data from Statista, as of Feb. 5, the Trump administration had deported a total of 4,745 Latin American undocumented immigrants. Those individuals were returned to their country of origin and 4,094 of those deported were Mexican citizens.

With mass deportation back in focus again, Del Bosque says there’s a nervousness on farms, and in their rural communities, not felt since the Obama administration.

“There are no big cities. There are small towns of anywhere from 7 to 14,000 people. And those small towns are mostly farmworkers,” Del Bosque says. “And we would not be able to farm out here without these people.”

White House Says Ag Isn’t the Target

Stephen Miller, who serves as Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy and as Homeland Security, appeared on CNN, defending the President’s mass deportation plan and said the target isn’t agriculture.

“Only 1% of alien workers in the entire country work in agriculture. The top destination for illegal aliens is large cities like New York, Los Angeles and small industrial towns, of course, all across the heartland. None of those illegal aliens are doing farm work,” Miller says.

Bureau of Labor Statistics

(Mike Byers )

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, immigrant workers comprise nearly 20% of the U.S. workforce, contributing more than $80 billion in taxes annually.

And with shortages of labor already, the concern is mass deportation of those immigrants who follow the law, could make that shortage worse and drive inflation.

Labor Shortages

Not having enough ag labor is problem farmers are dealing with all across the country. Just ask Marc Arnusch, who used to be one of the largest onion growers in the U.S.

“There was a morning where I came out into the field and I had 250 workers helping transplant a crop out of Arizona into a field here in Colorado. And the following day I had nine employees. You just can’t control a variable like that,” the Keenesburg, Colorado farmer told AgDay’s Clinton Griffiths.

At the time, Arnusch was one of the largest growers of onions, a crop that used as Blooming Onions in popular restaurants. But when labor become too lucrative, he decided to completely walk away from growing onions.

A Broken Immigration System

Grower after grower will tell you the immigration system in the U.S. doesn’t work for agriculture.

“It’s definitely broken,” Del Bosque says.

“We’re up at 40 years from not having passed comprehensive immigration reform in this country. And it sure doesn’t look like it’s going to happen in the next year,” says Mary Kay Thatcher, senior lead for federal government relations at Syngenta.

Thatcher says even if the U.S. doesn’t pass immigration reform, H-2A is becoming too expensive for many growers to even use.

“I have been hearing story after story in the hallways here about really good producers and strong competitors having to go out of business because they just can’t afford the new effective minimum wage rate along with the other mandates that get put on them, be it transportation cost or housing cost or whatever for H-2A,” she adds.

Del Bosque says they’ve never used H-2A, and one reason is because of the cost and all the other requirements involved.

“H-2A is very expensive to use. The minimum wage for H-2A is like $3 or $4 higher than our state. Minimum wage and our state minimum wage are $16. And the H-2A minimum wage is over 19. Think about that. The guest workers have to be paid more,” he adds

With required housing and food, Del Bosque says it’s becoming too expensive to even utilize H-2A in the U.S. today.

“Fruits and vegetables that we grow here are all handpicked. And if we can’t grow the produce here, then they’re going to have to be imported from somewhere else, maybe Mexico, maybe Chile” he says. “They’re going to have to be grown where there is labor. I don’t think Americans want that. I don’t think they want to have imported food, to be relying on other countries for their food supply.”

If you want your food grown in America, Del Bosque says you have to have the workforce to grow your food and harvest.
And he says that’s why all of agriculture, no matter where you live or what you grow, must be united.

“We’re a little minority as farmers,” Del Bosque adds. “We farmers don’t have an any political clout, neither here in California or anywhere else in the United States. We need to stick together.”

Your Next Reads:
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With More Arctic Air Set to Blast the U.S., Why This Winter Could Be Remembered for Its Extremes

Mon, 13 Jan 2025 21:04:44 GMT

After ice and blizzard conditions blasted the Midwest, South and East to start January, another round of frigid temperatures is set to blanket much of the U.S., and this time, temperatures could fall even lower than the previous round of cold.

Much of the U.S. is still seeing snow cover, with temperatures too cold to melt the recent snow. But now, we’re bracing for even colder temperatures as what’s called the “Siberian Express” is set to arrive this weekend. What exactly is the Siberian Express? Well, it gets its name from the cold air’s geographic origins. It’s when arctic air spills into the U.S., and it can have multiple sources, including Arctic Canada, Alaska, and in this case, Russia’s Siberia region, which is home to the coldest place on earth.

snow cover

(Weather Undground)

Meteorologists say the active start to January is a sign of what’s ahead.

“We’ve tried to bring some moisture back into places that have not seen it,” says Eric Sodgrass, principal atmospheric scientist with Conduit. “I’ve had this concern for a while about the lack of good flow in the atmosphere and what that’s meant toward building drought in some places through fall and now early winter. And I hate to say it, but nasty winters tend to give us a much better outlook for the next year. So, hey, let’s keep these things going for the rest of January and February, too.”

It’s not just the cold that’s turning heads, but it’s also the amount of snow that’s fallen since the start of the year, and it’s setting records. Take Kansas City, Mo., for example. That area has seen 13.” of snow in January, which makes it the second snowiest start to January in Kansas City history. Some parts of Arkansas saw as much as 15" of snow last week. That compares to areas that typically see snow, such as Chicago, recording little to no snowfall so far this year.

pic.twitter.com/rC9Dbh0qHE
— NWS Climate Prediction Center (@NWSCPC) January 13, 2025

The Winter of Extremes and Episodic Cold Outbreaks

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey thinks the winter of 2025 will be remembered for the extremes.

“With this pattern set up, it’s going to be too dry in the Southwest, stormy in the Northwest, and episodic cold outbreaks across the country,” he says. “Everybody remembers those because especially embedded in an otherwise relatively mild winter, you really remember those hard hitters.”

Cold

(GFS Model )

And that’s exactly what we are in for later this week. According to Rippey, the upcoming Arctic blast is one of those “episodic cold outbreaks” we typically see during La Niña, and what he describes as a re-amplification of the pattern we’ve been seeing for much of the month.

“Sunday night’s GFS model is showing this for extreme minimum temperatures over the next seven days,” says Rippey. “Bitter cold should stay out of the Deep South, but it may get a bit colder than this early next week before it gets better.”

Cold

(GFS Model )

Recent Moisture Helps Drought in Places
What about the moisture? The recent moisture is helping drought conditions in parts of the upper Midwest and some areas of the plains.

“But as you move to the south, that’s where I have concerns, that southwestern quadrant of the country, southern California, to the High Plains, like West Texas, western Kansas, western Oklahoma,” Rippey says. ”All I can say is it’s very fortunate those areas in the central and southern plains had a wet November because it doesn’t look good for the foreseeable future.”

But what about areas farther north, like Montana and the Dakotas? Lerner doesn’t expect widespread relief this winter.

“We’re getting some waves of snow to come across Montana and the Dakotas, but it’s a dry, powdery snow, and it’s really not providing high volumes of moisture,” says Drew Lerner, founder and senior agricultural meteorologist at World Weather, Inc. “This pattern will continue for the next several weeks, so we’ll put out a little bit more snow up that way. But as far as being able to get a big soaking rain type, you’re going to have to wait until spring.”

Meteorologists say one thing we are seeing that’s consistent with La Niña, is the sharp dividing line between wetter conditions and drought. And NOAA’s seasonal outlook shows that divide with below normal precipitation forecast for much of the southwest and Deep South over the next 90 days. Above normal in areas of the northwest and east.

Precip. Outlook

(NOAA)

Temp Outlook

(NOAA )

Drought Watch
Lerner thinks parts of the upper Midwest and northern Plains could see more active weather with rain into spring.

“So, I’m not too terribly concerned about the fact that we’re still seeing persistent dryness in those areas,” Lerner says. “Not all of that region will get relief when we get to the spring, but I would say probably two-thirds of that region will.”

But even with more moisture across other parts of the U.S., Snodgrass says he’s concerned about drought in other areas due to the weak La Niña.

“We tend to be wet through the Mississippi valley and east going into spring. There tends to be lots of storms, but we tend to see the drought that’s in West Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, the Sunbelt expand up toward Colorado,” Snodgrass says. “Most models want to bring dry conditions out of the southern Canadian prairie into Montana, and that’s kind of funneling toward the western Corn Belt. And I’ve based this off historical analogs looking at a lot of different years that looks something like this one. We just tended to be a bit hotter and drier.”

He says looking back, six out of 10 years that we’ve seen a similar pattern, we’ve ended up with heat and dryness in key months of July and August.

“To be honest with you, this is the first time in fall and winter that I’ve been kind of saying, ‘Hey, I think our risk is elevated for drought,’” Snodgrass says.

He says something extremely important to watch is what happens in the Gulf of Alaska.

“If between March and June, if that’s where it gets cold, the risk of drought in the Midwest goes way up. Watch that March time frame,” Snodgrass says. “I think that’s where our risk factor is going to be going forward. So I’m watching winter, but I’m more concerned about spring/summer.”

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What We Learned in 2024: The U.S. Dollar Matters, A Lot

Thu, 02 Jan 2025 20:11:15 GMT

2024 was full of lessons in the commodity markets. One of the biggest lessons just might be how critical the value of the U.S. dollar can be, according to AgResource Company founder and president Dan Basse. And to start 2025, the U.S. dollar continued its impressive run.

The first trading day of 2025 saw the U.S. dollar reach the highest level since September 2022. Not only does the news mean the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates at elevated levels, but there’s also expectations the U.S. dollar will remain strong this year due to policies proposed by President-elect Donald Trump.

Looking back at 2024, though, Basse says the biggest thing we learned is the U.S. dollar matters.

“Thursday morning, the Russian Ruble was at 115; the Brazilian Real was at 6.21. This is stimulating production around the world outside of the United States. And I think that’s something we really need to understand and learn from going forward,” says Basse. “Our margins are bad in United States. But for Brazilian farmers and for Russian farmers, they are still making money and willing to expand. So, I don’t have any expectations for any supply lever to pull global production back. And I think that’s going to be very important as we look towards the new year.”

Basse points out the Brazilian real was down 23% in 2024, which ranked the worst of all emerging currencies. The ruble was not far behind.

The Real and Ruble rates.

(AgResource Company )

China’s Crumbling Currency

Basse says the other important lesson from 2024 deals with China, and the fact China doesn’t have to come to the U.S. to buy commodities.

“The Chinese really have slowed down their corn and wheat imports this past year. I think that’s important for next year. And for soybeans, they’ve really tapped on the brakes,” says Basse. “With that in mind, I don’t have a demand driver that really keeps markets heading higher for long periods of time outside of weather scares.”

According to Reuters, China’s yuan fell to 14-month lows as worries about the health of the world’s second-biggest economy, as well as the prospect of increased tariffs under Trump. Pro Farmer Washington correspondent Jim Wiesemeyer calls China a major wild card to watch in the new year.

“You have to watch China because they’re flexing their muscles, but they have a relatively weak for them economy,” Wiesemeyer says. “I think that’s part of the problem in their import side. So for China, not only from a market aspect, but geopolitical stance and Taiwan there are concerns.”

5 Biggest Policy Takeaways from 2024

Wiesemeyer provided his list of the top 5 takeaways from 2025 when it comes to policy and politics.

Your Next Read: China 2025: 5 Predications to Watch

An 11-Year Old's Idea Sparked An Idea That's Grown Into an Annual Toy Drive Giving Out 13,000 Toys Each Year

Tue, 24 Dec 2024 15:02:29 GMT

The season of giving for Reed Marcum doesn’t just happen during Christmas. For this 19-year, the season of giving is year-round.

“I came up with the idea back in 2016 when I realized that I wanted to help put another toy under someone’s tree that year,” says Marcum, who’s now a Pittsburg County, Oklahoma 4-H Ambassador.

At just 11 years-old, this 4-H member had an idea: Collect toys and give them out to children in his local community.

“He came home one day, he talked to me and his stepfather, and he said, ‘Mom, I want to help some kiddos in my class for Christmas,” remembers Angie Miller, Reed’s mother. “I said, ‘OK, what can we do?’ I told him he could do a little work, and he was like, ‘No, I want to give out toys.”

Reed Marcum at 11-Years-Old

(Angie Miller)

Started Out As a Small Idea
That first year, Reed’s small idea turned into a huge success, giving out around 5,000 toys at his stepfather’s law office. Little did this family know that was just the start of something grand.

“It was something we didn’t expect to do, especially have that much success and community reaction. They really loved it. We did not expect that,” Reed says.

J Michael Miller Toy Drive
What’s called the J Michael Miller Toy Drive has grown each year, even during COVID.

“What happened was COVID hit, and we had told Reed that it just can’t happen that year. And he said, ‘It can happen, Mom,’” Angie says.

And it did. With the help of the community, Reed moved the toy drive to Ragan’s Auto, a decision that helped this drive grow even more.

“He spoke with Mr. Ragan, and he told Reed we can do this. They moved all their cars out by noon that day. We moved in around 1:00, and we would set up all night long, and then we open the doors, they would start driving through,” Angie says.

The annual J. Michael Miller Toy Drive gave out 13,000 toys this year.

(SUNUP)

Within a couple years, they even outgrew that space. Last year, Reed moved his toy drive again, this time, to the McAlester Expo Center.

“We are orchestrating with the local Expo Center here in McAlester for people to come, and it’s just an amazing venue for what we’re doing here. And it’s an amazing process that we have to set up and do,” Reed says.

Biggest Toy Giveaway Yet
On Dec. 7,2024, Reed had his biggest giveaway yet.

“We collected a ton, but we were able to give out around 13,000 this year, that day,” Reed says.

What started as one small idea has brought generosity through toys that touched 13,000 lives this year alone.

“It’s a year-long process,” Angie says. “The entire year we’re looking for toys, collecting them and getting donations from people. But when the day gets near and close, it really starts to ramp up.”

Cars line up 3 to 4 miles long for the annual toy drive.

(Bryan Fuller)

Recipients Come From Surrounding States
Since 2016, this toy drive has given away more than 64,000 toys, an annual event that people wait in line for hours to receive. And as the event grows each year, lines of cars that now stretch three to four miles long, all with kids eager to receive toys that year.

“I was working the line this year, and we did see license plates from Texas and Arkansas. That’s normal,” says Greg Owen, Pittsburg County, Oklahoma 4-H educator. “I would ask the people in the line, ‘What was the experience like?’ And this year, I heard the comment ‘It was literally perfect.’”

Vital Volunteers
But for Reed, this wouldn’t be possible without volunteers, all 100 of them.

“They can help us move the toys from point A to point B when we’re holding them or in help, give the toys, help, walk the line, be dressed up in costumes to help entertain the kids, give out small items that go through the lines. The kids aren’t just sitting there bored,” Reed says.

Loss Turned Into Love
Reed’s toy drive has become a beloved experience attracting thousands of people from miles away. But this kid who has brought so much joy to others has also seen heartache along the way.

“He had the most difficult year of his life his junior year,” Angie says. “We were moving to Ragan’s that year, and on July 28, he lost his grandmother that he was extremely close to.”

Reed’s brother, Sergeant Miles Tarron

(SUNUP)

Not even four months later, Reed suffered another devastating loss, just weeks away from his toy drive in 2021.

“We were notified by soldiers that Reed’s brother had passed in the military,” Angie says. “I talked with Reed and I told him I didn’t think we can do the toy giveaway. And he said, ‘Mom, brother would want us to do the toy giveaway, so we’re going to do the toy giveaway.’”

And he did, with an entire community rallying around Reed as a way to give back to one of their own who had done so much.

“They helped us get it over to Ragan’s. We got it all set up. And then they just helped us all the way through it,” Angie says. “After that, Reed had already created the Hudson Strong Foundation for a little boy that had cancer. And they provided some help with the costs of the storage buildings. Then after his brother passed, Reed created the Sergeant Miles Tarron Foundation, and that supports his toy giveaway, his backpack giveaway and his silent auction. His brother always had a hand in supporting him and sending money. So, now the Sergeant Miles Tarron Foundation and the Hudson Strong Foundation support those storage buildings.”

Reed has nine storage buildings, all bursting with donated toys each year. But this success is also because of one lady Reed deeply admired: his 4-H leader, Miss Donna Curry.

“After he lost his brother, June 28, 2022, he lost Miss Donna Curry, who was like a second mother to him, who got him into 4-H, and she supported this project thoroughly,” Angie says.

Today, Reed doesn’t just give away toys. Miss Donna had another idea two years before she died: to give out pajamas, socks and undergarments to those in need.

“We named it Miss Donna’s Closet. And when they drive through the toy giveaway, they get the pajamas, they get socks, they get undergarments all through the toy line. They get snacks. And so when we lost Miss Donna, Reed promised at that point that he would carry her tradition on.”

Reed is Now Inspiring Others
Reed’s heart of service is always on display, and it’s now inspiring others.

“It’s literally the goal that we try to set for our 4-H members. We hope that they’ll develop a level of mastery in their project work, and for Reed, his project has been civic engagement,” Greg says. “And when they get to that point, we’ll hope we hope that they’ll utilize that to teach and impact others to follow in their footsteps, which is exactly what Reed has done.”

“That’s the best thing with 4-H; they always want you to strive to be the best version of yourself. And that’s something this project really does every year,” Reed says. “It’s not just staying the same or leveling out each year. It’s getting bigger and better than the last.”

True Gift of Giving
Reed’s one idea in 2016 continues to spread joy year-round, as it showcases the true gift of giving.

“Little 11-year-old Reed could never see such a thing happening, especially when I was so young and couldn’t even talk to a group of ten people, let alone do something like this. I never thought it would reach this,” Reed says.

“I always share this. That came from the idea of an 11-year-old child. That shows the impact of the 4-H program. That shows the impact of a student that wants to give, that wants to make a difference and wants to make a positive impact on their community,” Greg says.

Reed Accepts Donations Year-Round
In order to make the annual toy drive possible, Reed accepts donations year-round. If you’d like to contribute to the annual toy drive or Reed’s other service projects, you can donate here .

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How This 29-Year-Old Farmer is Calculating His Costs on Every Acre in Real-Time

Mon, 23 Dec 2024 17:48:56 GMT

At just 29-years-old, Illinois farmer Chase Sailer is always exploring unconventional ways to be more productive.

“This is one of the things that we can probably see the biggest return on investment,” Sailer says, pointing to the GPS Ditch Grader in his machine shed. “Spots that used to yield 20 bu. [per acre] for soybeans are now getting all the way up to 50 to 70 bu. [per acre] in those wet holes.”

Sailer, who farms near Carmi, Ill., says it’s been one of the biggest game changers on his farm.

“It’s pretty much a surface drain drainage tile, if you want to look at it that way. It’s a lot cheaper than putting drainage tile on a field. But we can go out there, take the topography of any field, and we’re overlaying that with yield maps, to see where trouble spots are,” Sailer says.

Chase Sailer

(Russ Hnatusko)

Instead of guessing why low-yielding spots are an issue in any given field, they use all that data to know exactly what the culprit is.

“And then we’re able to go out there with this ditcher and grade it; we’re able to make sure that water flows to where it needs to,” Sailer says.

It’s that attention to detail, along with Sailer’s ability to turn to technology to solve problems on the farm, that makes this southern Illinois farmer a true maverick.

“We’re going to admit when we’re wrong, and we’re always willing to learn,” he says. “So, I think that’s a huge role, and the key in trying to be better is really dive in deep each year on what you did wrong. Because if you only focus on the things you did right, you’re never going to have growth,” he adds.

The Push for Precision

Another way Sailer Farms is taking the guesswork out of farming, is by fulling grasping onto precision farming. Now, Sailer is able to drill down their decisions to the acre.

“Right now we’re using about every part of precision technology that you can possibly use, and that’s going all the way from obviously auto row guidance with AutoTrac , which is kind of the bare minimum, to section control on your planters . And now we’re going into tramlines where we’re trying to limit the compaction zones on all of our fields,” Sailer says.

Aerial of Sailer Farms, Carmi, Illinois

(Russ Hnatusko )

In this area of southern Illinois, the two biggest limiting factors to yields are either too much or too little water, as well as compaction.

“So, with the use of tramlines and AutoPath from John Deere Ops Center, we’re able to pull into the field, already have the field mapped out and the route that we want to take. And we’re taking that same 60-foot pass on every application that we do. So that’s allowing us to come in here in the fall and in-line rip only where our equipment’s ran,” Sailer says.

Data-Driven Decisions

What goes into every decision the Sailers make, well, that all comes down to data.

“We have so much data anymore, all the way from our soil tests that we do every other year, and this is where we’re working really close with our agronomist. So, we’re pairing up different seed varieties to different soil types to make sure that we’re getting the biggest bang for our buck in that aspect,” he says.

Chase Sailer, Carmi, Illinois

(Russ Hnatusko )

Getting Rid of Bad Data

Sailer admits their farm used to comb through bad data, but now, through Ops Center, they finally have good data they go through not monthly or weekly, but daily.

“Even from our See & Spray maps where we’re going out with our sprayer, we’re getting these weed pressure maps and each year we’re able to learn and build off of that and make sure in that particular field that we’re doing a better job. And it’s helping us make decisions on what type of chemicals to use for certain fields,” Sailer says.

From being better able to decide which chemicals to use, to knowing which seed variety needs to be planted on every acre, Harvest Profit is another tool Sailer Farms now relies on heavily.

“Harvest Profit is a neat tool where we’re able to put in every overhead cost that we have in our farming operation, all the way from our employees to the random bills we get from the parts stores, so you get a true number of how much does it cost to run this one acre,” Sailer says. “And then, when we’re spraying and spreading throughout the field, we have all of our chemical prices and our fertilizer prices in Harvest Profit. And it’s just continually giving you a calculator throughout the field on a per acre basis.”

Chase Sailer, Carmi, Illinois

(Russ Hnatukso )

There’s no shortage of technology and precision tools on this farm, but what may be Sailer’s biggest key to success is the people they surround themselves with.

“As a farm, it’s just like a sports team. You’re only as good as your weakest link. We have 12 different guys and all of them play a huge role, whether it’s planting, harvesting, spreading, spraying. Every row needs to be done just as good as the best guy, and I feel like we have that as a team,” Sailer says.

At not even 30-years-old yet, Sailer just may be wise beyond his years. But as he looks ahead, he has big plans for the next 30 years.

“I’m a third-generation farmer,” says Sailer. “We’re always looking towards that next generation, trying to make decisions and set up the farm to where we’re successful for years to come. I hope to be here for another 100 years.”

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Get a Rare Look Inside Iowa State University's Advanced Kent Feed Mill and Grain Science Complex

Mon, 07 Oct 2024 21:28:50 GMT

Take a tour through Iowa State University’s Kent Feed Mill and Grain Science Complex, and you’ll encounter state-of-the-art technology advancing the feed industry.

“This is our thermal processing treatment. Our feed is mixed in batches and undergoes heat treatment. The high heat and extended retention time help eliminate salmonella and E.coli, improving feed quality and nutrition,” explains Lexi Lambros, a master’s student in agricultural engineering.

The facility is not a commercial feed mill, but rather a teaching facility located at the edge of Iowa State’s Ames campus.

“We aim to increase student awareness of career opportunities in the broader feed and grain industry. This project is designed to drive that,” says Dirk Maier, Director of the ISU Kent Feed Mill Grain Science Complex.

Valued at $35 million, the project began in 2015 and has since developed into a fully automated system, providing students with hands-on experience, while also being precisely placed.

In 2023, Iowa ranked as the top corn producing state in the country, churning out 2.5 billion bushels of corn. What happens with all the crop harvested, and how it’s processed, is something they take seriously at Iowa State. September marked the one-year anniversary of ISU opening the Kent Feed Mill Grain Science Complex, a state-of-the-art teaching, research and extension grain facility, which is truly one-of-a-kind.

Automation and Scale at the Facility

“When you sum it all up, we have around 3,000 input-output points. These include sensors that control gates, motors, valves, and detect temperature and vibrations,” Maier states.

The size of the feed mill is comparable to commercial operations, though it runs on a smaller scale. Instead of processing 100 tons per hour, it handles five tons per hour, mirroring industry operations to train students effectively.

Current Capacity and Expansion Plans

With a monthly processing capacity of 1,000 tons, the facility is currently processing 200 tons weekly.

“We’re getting close to achieving our goal of processing 1,000 tons per month, and we’re on the verge of reaching that capacity,” Lambros says.

Iowa’s Prime Location

Situated in central Iowa, the facility is located in one of the world’s largest food production regions.

“If Iowa were a country, it would rank as the fourth largest corn producer globally,” Maier explains.

The facility supports the industry’s demand for future employees, training students for roles in feed mills, livestock, and poultry facilities.

Hands-On Learning for the Next Generation

The facility doesn’t focus on feed formulation, but students learn how to program different rations for various animals.

“We ensure the right ingredients are in place for the correct rations, following the instructions of animal nutritionists,” Maier adds.

As part of both the College of Agriculture and Life Sciences and the College of Engineering, students get to apply classroom lessons in a practical setting at the grain complex.

A Unique Educational Opportunity

“There are few institutions offering this kind of hands-on learning in feed science and technology, particularly in management and animal nutrition,” Maier emphasizes.

For Lambros, the facility offered a personal journey. As a second-year master’s student in agricultural engineering, her interest in food science shifted her focus.

“With my engineering background, I’m passionate about food science on a large scale, and I want to contribute to feeding the future by designing and producing food products,” she says.

After earning a bachelor’s degree in chemical engineering, Lambros sought a new challenge in agriculture, which she found through this program.

Expanding Opportunities for Students Across Disciplines

The facility opens doors for students from diverse backgrounds, from those new to agriculture to those who always knew this was their path.

“This facility offers great opportunities to bring together majors like animal science, nutritional science, agribusiness, and various engineering fields—mechanical, electrical, chemical, and agricultural,” Maier says.

Your Next Read: An Idea Out of This World: University of Nebraska Researchers Work to Launch Agriculture in Space

Love For Lexi: A Wisconsin Dairy Farm Kid's Big Battle For a New Heart

Mon, 07 Oct 2024 15:35:38 GMT

Lexi Anderson looks like a typical 12-year-old kid. The sixth grader is full of life and so much spunk.

“How long have you been coming to World Dairy Expo,” I asked.

“12 years,” said Lexi.

Her entire life, she’s been traveling to World dairy Expo with her family to show cows. An annual trip that’s always packed with family fun. But Lexi’s life took a dramatic turn nearly 10 months ago, just two months after she showed during the 2023 World Dairy Expo.

“In December of 2023, she [Lexi] started feeling dizzy on the basketball court. And at first, we weren’t really sure what was going on, whether it was dehydration or what it was,” said Tamala Anderson, who is Lexi’s mom.

Unsure how serious it was, it wasn’t until Lexi blacked out on the court that they knew something wasn’t right.

“They decided to bring me in to the doctor. And then we figured out that I had this heart problem,” Lexi said.

The Diagnosis

It wasn’t just a minor problem. The diagnosis? Restrictive cardiomyopathy (RCM).

“It’s a hardening of the heart, the lining of the heart. So, the walls of the heart are eventually going to harden and stop pumping” Tamala explained.

“It’s really rare,” Lexi said. “Only like 2% of the world has it.”

Lexi Anderson

(Tamala Anderson)

Restrictive cardiomyopathy is a less common type of cardiomyopathy. According to the Pediatric Cardiomyopathy Registry, the average age of diagnosis is 5 to 6 years.

Lexi’s diagnosis meant her only cure would be a heart transplant

“When we first got the news, it was extremely hard to get that news,” said Tamala. “To hear that your daughter…. sometimes kids only have a year and a half after they’re diagnosed with this. It’s such a hard thing to hear that your daughter could die,” she said.

A heartbreaking diagnosis that shocked the family, but Tamala says they were sent to specialists at the children’s hospital in Milwaukee and got connected with an amazing team of doctors that immediately planted seeds of hope.

“We’ve got a great team. They don’t even let us look at the negative. They told us that we didn’t need to worry about it. They said they we’re going to find it [a heart] and fix it,” Tamala said.

Her New Normal

At 12 years old, Lexi’s life quickly turned to anything but normal. She has doctor visits at least every six weeks with strict orders to cut out physical activity that could stress her heart.

“I got banned from playing all sports, to stop it from growing,” Lexi said.

Lexi’s favorite sport is softball, a sport she can’t play until she receives her heart transplant.

(Tamala Anderson)

Lexi was extremely active before, playing basketball, riding horses and playing softball, which she says is her favorite sport.

“I really miss playing softball,” said Lexi.

“It’s hard,” said Tamala. “I kind of do have her wrapped up in a bubble as she has strict orders at school. All of her teachers know the strict orders. She’s not allowed to run, and she’s not allowed to do any of that stuff that might affect her. So she’s kind of limited in every aspect.”

Lexi loves all things outdoors, which includes riding horses and going fishing.

(Tamala Anderson)

Helpless in so many ways, Tamela did the only thing she could and that was to protect her little girl, all while waiting on the call that could save her life.

“Her timeline went from living 60 years, 80 years, down to we don’t know what,” said Tamala. “We could get a phone call at any time.”

Waiting on the Life-Saving Call

It’s that phone call that Tamala, Lexi and her entire family are anxiously awaiting.

“Honestly, my bags are packed in the car,” said Tamala. “I’ve got Lexi’s bags packed in the car. We’re waiting, and we’re ready.”

“Are you scared at all or are you nervous at all,” I asked Lexi.

“I’m a little nervous. I don’t know when I’m going to be able to get back home. And I don’t know if they’re going to hold me for the three months recovery, but hopefully they let me go home and just recover at my house.”

Love for Lexi

At 12 years old, Lexi’s courage is contagious and her support is inspiring. She has an army of family and friends who are rooting her on, with a group called “Love for Lexi.”

“A couple of her friends at home decided to do a website, it’s called Love for Lexi, where we have Caring Bridge connected,” said Tamala “Some of it’s to raise money. Some of it’s just to let people know how she’s doing.”

Whether it’s at the County Fair or World Dairy Expo, you’ll find Lexi shining in the show ring.

(Tamala Anderson)

That love was put on center stage this summer, when Lexi’s friends Hattie and Holly Hargrave gave the ultimate gift of generosity with a lamb for Lexi.

“We went to a county fair, and I was showing sheep, and I didn’t make the sale, and one of my friends did and that raised over $27,000 and she gave it to me for the benefit,” said Lexi.

“It was amazing,” Tama said. “It was absolutely amazing. Honestly, the first buyer, when the first buyer bought the lamb, I was in tears . Then, he’s like, ‘Nope, I want to sell it again.’ And he so he gave it back and they sold it again. And I mean, it sold four times.

That sale raised $27,000 from four business who all came together to show Lexi love and support.

“We live in a really, really great community,” Tamala said.

“I feel really, really loved,” said Lexi.

Lexi looks happy and normal, but as her heart works in overdrive, the reality is Lexi’s body is tired and worn down.

“Some days it takes her breath away just to walk across the parking lot. Some days she is jumping around saying, ‘I’m ready to go,’” Tamala said.

Success at World Dairy Expo

This week during the World Dairy Expo in Madison, Wisc, Lexi was determined to go in the ring, and she brought home hardware, as well as memories she won’t forget. One of the best memories was when her cousin won Junior Champion of the World Dairy Expo Junior Show.

“I was super happy, because it’s like a victory for the farm,” said Lexi. “We just cheered each other on and we started supporting each other and stuff.”

That’s who Lexi is; a spirited kid who’s always supporting those around her.

“She’s a great kid, honestly,” said Tamala. “She’s got such a big heart. If she sees someone down or if she sees someone even getting bullied, she’s more of a protector. So she’s just a great kid.”

Lexi’s big heart is now what’s needing saved, but it’s a constant showing of love and support that’s getting this family through.

Yes, the Farmland Market is Shifting, But That Doesn’t Necessarily Mean Prices Are Falling

Tue, 01 Oct 2024 15:45:08 GMT

There’s no doubt the land market is seeing a shift. With more “no sales” flaring up across the country, it’s clear the land market is still adjusting to the current reality of lower grain prices. However, just when you think the pressure will cause land prices to fall, some eye-popping sales prove good-quality farm ground is still in high demand.

Last week, a piece of farm ground in Clinton, Iowa, sold for $18,100 per acre. In Missouri, a parcel of 696 acres in Ray County sold for $17,241 per acre.

How would you describe the current farmland market? According to Robin Reid, an Extension associate in the department of agricultural economics at Kansas State University , the focus is on land values. She says there is a slowdown taking place, but overall values have still been quite resilient.

“We are really looking a lot like we did back in 2014 to 2015, where we had lower commodity prices, but land values did hold fairly steady, even though farm income wasn’t supporting the values that we had,” Reid says.

She says the increases in cropland values over the past few years, specifically in Kansas, have been in the range of 18% to 20% for cropland. And while rates have managed to hold steady, Reid says there are signs of the start of a slowdown in the run-up in farmland values.

“USDA forecasts us to see about 8% increase this year over what we has been an 18% to 20%, but the point is we’re still going up,” Reid adds. “And I would say that’s probably going to just start slowing down, but not necessarily decreasing in the short-term.”

Farmers are still in the driver’s seat, but the direction of land values in the months and years ahead relies on one major factor: how long low profitability for row crop farmers persists.

“If we’re just in this for a couple of years, we probably won’t see a big effect on land values locally, but we’ll see more of a flattening of the market,” Reid says. “If we do experience this downturn for a number of years, I would expect we’re going to start seeing an impact on land values and definitely cash rental rates. We’re already hearing from farmers trying to negotiate those back down for next year.”

Rabail Chandio, an assistant professor of economics and Extension economist at Iowa State University (ISU) , says the land market is softening for a couple reasons.

“As we are coming out of the pandemic highs with high government payments no longer there, with high farm income no longer supporting the land value, the market began to soften in 2023,” says Chandio, who is also the lead researcher of the ISU Land Value Survey . “What we’ve already experienced is a whole year of softening and then maybe slight falling of land values in certain parts of the of the state as well.”

She’s watching to see how much softer land values end up being in 2024, and now the question is if the softening will turn into a decrease in land values or just a solid plateau.

“I expect there to be some adjustments, slight falls, kind of like what we experienced at the end of 2017 to 2019, because we had very, very high land values, which are not really sustainable. We saw percentage increases of 17% year after year. That has to balance out a little bit,” Chandio explains. “We won’t see a crash in the market, from what I expect, but we will more than likely see slight decreases that are less than 5% or less than 10%, is my expectation. And that won’t really be unusual for the land markets either.”

Pasture and Range Prices Remain Strong

Farmers who rely on crops might be feeling the pinch, but higher cattle prices are creating a different story for cow-calf producers, which, in turn, is having a different impact on the value of pasture and rangeland.

“We have very high cattle prices right now, which is good for our cow-calf producers, but it does put a little more margin squeeze on those buying stockers or buying feedlot animals,” Reid says. “The hunting pressure has really helped our pasture and rangeland prices remain strong. As a result, that’s the category that will probably be more resilient than our cropland in Kansas.”

Reid says it’s not just livestock producers on the hunt for pasture and range to buy; it’s also those outside of traditional agriculture.

“Here in Kansas, if there’s pasture land, especially with hunting potential, we’re seeing a lot of out of state or even within state hunting pressure on land values. A lot of times they are competing with what our cattle producers can pay and then also looking at the purchase as an investment,” she explains.

Who’s Buying All This Farmland?

Navigating the land market is an ever-evolving job, and Reid has done extensive research on who owns land across Kansas and who’s buying.

“When my research started in 2015, 84.5% of all of our ag ground in the state was still owned by people here in Kansas,” Reid says. “If we fast forward seven years, the last time I was able to look at these data, we did see about a 2.5% uptick in the amount of land that’s moving out of state.”

She says some of that can be attributed to farm sales, but she’s also noticing a surge in the number of Baby Boomer landowners who are retiring or transitioning that land to the next generation, many of whom don’t necessarily still live in the state.

“There’s going to be a lot of heirs that just want to sell their parcel, so I do anticipate a lot of land being on the market,” Reid explains. “If we don’t have the farm income to support those purchases, we do have other sources of people who are willing to buy ground that will hopefully help stabilize our ag economy and the land market.”

Who owns the land and who’s buying is one of the biggest questions Reid consistently fields, especially with the growing conversation about foreign-owned farmland. Contrary to headlines, she says it’s still farmers.

With a surge in solar and wind leases across the state, it looks like more foreign investors are gobbling up farmland, but Reid says that’s actually not true.

“When the Agricultural Foreign Investment Disclosure Act was put into place back in the 1970s, nobody thought about wind and solar leases,” Reid says. “As you look at the report, it can be a little alarming the amount of area in our state that is foreign held. As I dove into that data itself, it’s actually a very small percentage, less than 0.25% of all of our public land here in the state is foreign held at the moment.”

Your Next Read: Changes To Expect In The Farmland Market This Fall

USDA Surprises the Market By Raising U.S. Corn Yield Estimate, Leaves Soybean Yield Stagnant

Thu, 12 Sep 2024 21:00:07 GMT

USDA’s September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) produced a bit of a surprise with the agency raising their national corn yield estimate. USDA left the soybean yield estimate unchanged, which sparked a bullish reaction in the markets. However, analysts chalk it up to how early it is in the year and the uncertainty around soybean yields in early September.

Leading into the report, surveys showed analysts expected USDA to decrease yields. Instead, the agency bumped the national corn yield by a half a bushel.

USDA’s updated September forecast shows

U.S. corn yield: 183.6 bu. per acre
Corn production: 15.2 billion bushels, up 39 million bushels from August
U.S. soybean yield: 53.2 bu. per acre
Soybean production: 4.6 billion bushels, down 3 million bushels from August

USDA’s September WASDE report is the first time USDA actually goes into fields to measure yields. The field samples, along with farmer surveys, are then used to update their yield and production forecasts. The change to the national corn yield caught analysts by surprise, according to Matt Bennett with AgMarket.net.

“The crop didn’t finish great,” Bennett said. “I think overall the Corn Belt was fairly dry in the month of August. But I think what USDA found is that obviously there’s a lot of ears out there, and it looks like it’s going to be a pretty good size ear. Corn looks like you’re going to have a pretty big crop.”

Where did USDA’s higher yields come from? The state-by-state breakdown shows even though USDA trimmed the Illinois state yield estimate by 3 bu. per ace, the agency raised Iowa’s yield by the same amount compared to August.

The largest increases came in Texas, where the agency raised the yield from 117 bu. per acre in August to 121 bu. per acre in September, which is a 3.4% increase for the state. Pennsylvania’s yield was increased 3%, from 135 bu. per acre in August to 139 bu. per acre this month.

The biggest declines came to North Carolina where drought has hammered the crop there. USDA now forecasts the state yield to drop to 88 bu. per acre, a 12% decline from August.

Corn yield changes from August to September

(USDA NASS )

Arlan Suderman of StoneX Group points out even with the increase in yields, the corn balance sheet isn’t a disaster.

“I originally thought USDA came up really kind of back in May, fluffed up their demand estimates to keep sending stocks down around below 2.1 billion bushels,” said Suderman. “I feel better about the number now because we have a smaller Black Sea crop and we’re generally expecting acreage to be planted in Argentina to be down 20 to 25%, granted, that’s going to soybeans and that’s bearish soybeans. But if you have a much smaller crop in Argentina, you have a smaller crop in the Black Sea that could boost our exports in the last half the marketing year. I generally agree with the stronger ethanol demand. Cheaper prices are creating demand.”

USDA also adjusted ending stocks for corn, lowering it 55 million bushels to 1.8 billion bushels of old crop. That adjustment was based on increased exports. The agency is forecasting 2 billion bushels of new crop corn.

“USDA raised ethanol by 15 million bushels, you raised exports 40 million bushels,” Bennett added. “And so that 55 million bushels basically of a lower carry out coming into this year offset the 39 million bushels more corn that they came up with production. So, you actually brought carryout down.”

U.S. Ending Stocks

(Data Source: USDA; Graphic: Lori Hays)

Bullish for Beans?

The soybean side of USDA’s latest report was more mundane. USDA’s decision to leave soybean yields unchanged from the last report, despite the late season dry weather that could impact the crop, might have been the safe move for USDA this early in the season.

“I think the trade was really bracing for much higher yields,” said Suderman. “I think they saw the possibility that maybe we would be up there close to 55 bushels per acre. That was kind of the whisper number, so to speak, not necessarily the average trade guess that was published. So there’s a little bit of a sigh of relief.”

USDA also made revisions to carryout, with old crop soybean carryout now sitting at 340 million bushels, according to USDA. New crop was revised down 10 million bushels from last month to 550 million.

“When you see USDA increased domestic crush a little bit, 5 million bushels for the old crop, not making any adjustments upward on yield overall, you think, ‘Okay, maybe the bad news is into this market.’ I don’t know that we can really take that assumption this early in the game because soybeans are still fill in pods and so there’s a lot of potential changes. I think USDA mostly just took a safe route this month,” Suderman said.

Suderman says what was one of the more interesting details of the changes to soybeans were the soybean pod counts from USDA.

“It was interesting to note that pod counts in this in this report were below year ago levels. And that was a little bit surprising considering the pod populations that Pro Farmer found on their Crop Tour last month. Maybe we lost a lot of pods there in late August. That would be a possibility. But on the other hand, what counters that is you do the math and USDA’s numbers suggest a pretty good sized seed size. You don’t usually lose a lot of pods if you have conditions conducive for good seed size.”

Suderman said bottomline is he thinks USDA wasn’t comfortable in making big changes when the soybeans aren’t fully mature. He called USDA’s September report a “safe route” for siybeans.

“Over the last five years, pod counts have gone up every year of the last five years from September to October by varying amounts, sometimes significantly. So I don’t really think we’ll have a good handle on the soybean crop size until the October report,” Suderman said.

Nonetheless, Bennett points out you can’t discount how hot and dry the month of August was for parts of the U.S., a trend that has continued into September.

“August was pretty darn dry,” Bennett said. “I would say coming into the month of August, most people had a pretty full soil moisture profile. And so you’ve got to think that maybe some of these early beans, especially, had plenty to get to the finish line. Whenever you look at the USDA report, I mean, essentially there wasn’t a whole lot in the way of changes. The crop size didn’t change or just marginally, if you look at the balance sheet, it’s just a slight amount.”

Soybean yield changes from August to September

(USDA NASS)

USDA made some steep revisions to their yield estimates in Ohio, Kentucky and Tennessee. USDA lowered the Ohio yield estimate by 6.8%, now at 55 bu. per acre. Tennessee was revised 6% lower, to 46 bu. per acre.

However, Louisiana’s yield was increased 6% to 52 bu. per acre. USA also raised Iowa’s state yield to 63 bu. per acre, a 3% increase from August.

Old crop soybean carryout sits at 340 million bushels, according to USDA. New crop was revised down 10 million bushels from last month to 550 million.

“Carryout did come down 10 million bushels, but it’s still at 550 [million],” Bennett said. “And so this is a big enough crop considering we’re carrying a pretty darn big crop to boot. Now most of the time whenever you raise a soybean yield, it’s like 80% of the time Pro Farmer goes up from the August USDA report, USDA in September also typically goes higher, and that was not the case, but again, there are a lot of pods out there. We just didn’t have enough rain to fill them.”

Burning Question This Fall: Do You Store or Sell at Harvest?

The heat and dry weather means harvest is rapidly approaching for some, while it’s well underway for others. And as farmers weigh the current commodity prices, it’s a big decision this fall: do you store the crop or sell it off hte combine?

Suderman says there are three things farmers need to keep in mind this fall when making that decision.

Rapid Harvest: “It looks like we’re going to have a weather pattern that facilitates a rapid dry down, which means that harvest of both record corn and soybean crops coming in very quickly, really stretching our our storage facilities,” said Suderman.
Low Water Levels and Possible Port Strike: “We also could end up with some problems on the Mississippi River with low water levels. There’s even a risk of a port strike by longshoremen on the East Coast as well as the Gulf Coast, and that could create some problems for exports as well,” added Suderman.
Basis at Risk: “With all of those factors, basis could be at risk. Amount of grain coming on at harvest time could be at risk. So depending on your on farm storage, you need to really pay attention to that risk. If you don’t have the on farm storage, you need to take steps to protect yourself, protect the equity that you’ve built into your farm,” Suderman said.

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