Top Producer Summit

Beyond the Blame Game: Navigate the Mental Toll of Modern Ag

Fri, 03 Apr 2026 14:56:34 GMT

When market pressures mount, it is easy to succumb to the “blame game.” Yet, the most resilient operations are those that anchor themselves in a mission larger than the current balance sheet. For leaders like James Burgum and Lamar Steiger, coping with stress isn’t just about managing the books, it’s about managing the mindset.

The Many Hats of the Modern Producer

James Burgum, CEO of The Arthur Companies, believes the first step in managing stress is acknowledging the sheer weight of the roles farmers play.

“One of the things I did when I stepped into my role is an exercise where I said to our team, ‘Help me understand all the hats on the farm – farmworker, agronomist, grain merchandiser, mechanic, truck driver, snow removal lead, banker, economist,’” Burgum said during a discussion at Top Producer Summit. “You start to go down the list, and its dozens and dozens of roles that an individual farmer plays.”

By recognizing the complexity of these roles, Burgum argues that producers can move toward servant leadership—prioritizing the team’s needs.

“There are things that are much more important and much bigger than the challenges we’re wrestling with on the job every day,” Burgum says. “It’s hard to juggle all the balls, but at the end of the day, we want everyone on our team to make sure they get home at night and be there for their families.”

Choosing Abundance Over Scarcity

Lamar Steiger, owner of The 808 Ranch, learned about stress through the lens of his father, a man who seemed to face every possible setback: health crises, financial downturns and missed market peaks.

The farm struggled during times of high interest rates in the late ‘70s and early ‘80s and his father was diagnosed with an autoimmune disorder, Guillain-Barre, that left him paralyzed for six months.

Still, his dad always had an attitude of abundance, not scarcity, Steiger says.

“With my brothers holding other obligations, I was left to milk the cows,” Steiger says. “We were so far behind, and all my dad would say is, ‘It could be worse.’”

Breaking the Silence

Eventually, his family lost the dairy. After hitting rock bottom and battling depression , Steiger realized that the “tough it out” mentality was a liability, not an asset.

“When the stresses pile up, you’ve got to find help,” Steiger says. “I wasn’t ‘man enough’ to step up and say, ‘Hey, something’s wrong here.’ I should have said, ‘Time out—this is not working.’”

Steiger’s advice for those feeling the weight of the current market is simple: Find your “who.” Whether it is a spouse, a neighbor or a professional, talking through the stress is the only way to separate your self-worth from the volatility of the markets.

“In agriculture, we’re so reliant on outside forces,” Steiger says. “You’ve got to have an attitude that it’s going to work out. As my Dad would say, ‘Well, we never missed a meal.’ That was his bottom line for ‘It’s okay.’”

From Constraints to Catalysts: How Ag Leaders Turn Hardships into Strategy

Thu, 02 Apr 2026 18:19:05 GMT

In an industry defined by “one-year-at-a-time” cycles, the greatest threat to a growing operation isn’t just a market downturn—it’s the inertia that comes with size. Farm Journal CEO Prescott Shibles argues that long-term survival requires a rare blend of faith and agility. To maintain an entrepreneurial mindset, leaders must lean into “conviction” as the core of a strategy that survives the lows.

Here is how four industry leaders are turning today’s constraints into tomorrow’s differentiators.

1. Build when times are hard.

When Brent Smith, president and CEO of NewLeaf Symbiotics, joined the company in 2023, the grain market was entering a significant down cycle. While some saw a risky time to lead a startup, he saw an opportunity.

“I learned in my first startup that the best time to build a business is in hard times,” Smith said said during a discussion at Top Producer Summit. “Because if you can’t withstand tough times, you’re not going to survive long term.”

For Smith, survival meant doubling down on the company’s core: science. Despite the pressure to cut costs, NewLeaf continues to spend half of its operating expenses on science.

“It would be very easy to peel that back,” he admits. “But we focused on projects that make the most impact the quickest, while keeping an eye on the long-term innovation in our pipeline.”

2. Control what you can control.

Farmers face the ultimate constraint every year: the weather. Scott Beck, president of Beck’s Hybrids, recalls the planting crisis of 2019 when constant rains kept tractors out of the fields well into May.

“I was concerned for our customers not being able to plant, but also for us not being able to plant our seed for the next year,” Beck says. “There was nothing that we could do to control the weather, but we could control how we interacted with our customers.”

Rather than retreating, the Beck’s team focused on transparency and empathy, using video series to connect with farmers and even forming small groups for prayer and support. Ultimately, they wanted farmers to know they cared and were there to support them however they could.

Despite the financial reality of what could happen if farmers didn’t plant and returned seed, Beck’s decided their course of action would not include employee layoffs. Instead, they prepared to sell land to protect their people.

“Fortunately, the weather broke and everybody was able to get planted,” he says. “Then the second miracle happened. We had the second warmest September on record, and that’s what brought the crop through to enable 2019 to not turn out as bad as it started.”

3. Turn disadvantages into advantages.

In 2014, Lamar Steiger, owner of The 808 Ranch, was tasked with a monumental challenge: helping Walmart reinvent its beef supply chain. At the time, the retail giant was at a disadvantage, forced to accept whatever the major meatpackers provided.

Steiger’s strategy was to turn that lack of control into a new kind of independence.

“I convinced the Walmart team to go around the traditional supply chain,” Steiger says. Today, Walmart sources 28% of its beef from its own “farm-to-table” supply chain.

There’s no question that decision was really good for Walmart. But Steiger says it was also really good for him personally.

“It reminded me that no matter how big you are, there are always challenges,” he says.

4. Create “white space” for the future.

When the day-to-day tasks of an operation become overwhelming, long-term strategy is often the first thing to go. James Burgum, CEO of The Arthur Companies, believes leaders must intentionally carve out “white space” for their teams.

“It’s important to find ways where people can actually spend their time working on the business, not just in the business,” he says.

By protecting time for team members to execute ideas that are three to five years out, Burgum manages the tension between short-term urgency and long-term viability.

“It’s hard to step away from the daily fires you’ll face in your operation, but it’s important,” he adds. “How we manage that tension of short term and long term is creating that white space and making sure that we consciously work on the business.

The Long Game

Ultimately, resilience in agriculture is about knowing when to push and when to pivot.

“You have to know when to put the gas down, and you need to know when to tap the brake,” Smith says. “And regardless of what you are doing, you need to stay focused on what you’re doing.”

Whether it is investing in science during a downturn or choosing customer empathy over the bottom line, these leaders say constraints don’t have to be roadblocks; they can be the very catalysts that drive an operation forward.

U.S. Soybeans at a Crossroads: Navigating China Trade and Brazil’s Rise

Thu, 12 Feb 2026 14:27:14 GMT

Deglobalization is nothing new in agriculture — the U.S. has been losing export share for decades. As rapid expansion and modernization continue around the world, the ag industry is navigating new pressures and opportunities to remain competitive. Experts who work directly in global trade say American farmers need to recognize what’s changing and what it could mean for their operations.

China Trade Framework Details

U.S. farmers were excited when President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi struck a trade truce and framework in South Korea on Oct. 30, especially the 12 MMT of soybean purchases . However, the lack of clarity on if the commitments were for the calendar year or the marketing year left the market in disarray.

At the 2026 Top Producer Summit, Jiang Lyu, minister for economic and commercial affairs at the Chinese Embassy in the U.S., confirmed the 12 MMT is for the current marketing year.

“You do hear those numbers from President Trump, Secretary Bessent and others,” Lyu says. “All I can share with you is that China is pretty sincere in terms of having a relationship that is anchored on mutual respect, reciprocity and, most importantly, mutual benefit. We believe stability in this trade relationship, including in the ag trade, is very important, and we hope this mutually beneficial relationship will continue.”

To date, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer says China has purchased 12 MMT, but the purchases have only been made by Sinograin and Cofco, which are government entities. The 13% reciprocal tariffs China still has on U.S. soybeans makes it unfeasible for private crushers to buy and is 10% higher than the tariffs on Brazilian soybeans. The question remains, when will China eliminate that tariff?

Lyu says he’s not sure on the timing, but that China would like to advance discussions between the two countries to the point that tariff could be eliminated. There is hope that can happen when the two leaders meet in April.

“This is, to borrow your word, a trade truce,” said Lyu. “So the truce has a time of one year. We would like this one year to be extended and preferably into eternity.”

Opportunities to Expand China Trade

The Chinese market is ripe for expanding trade, according to Lyu, through new areas of U.S. and China agricultural cooperation. He cites platforms, such as the China International Import Expo, will bring new opportunities for U.S. agriculture.

The China-U.S. economic and trade relations benefit both sides when they cooperate, adds the minister, but harm both when they are confrontational. However, he says the Chinese market has broad prospects and large capacity, and bilateral trade meets mutual needs.

China to Buy 8 MMT More Soybeans?

Meanwhile, President Trump posted via social media on Feb. 3 that China had agreed to buy another 8 MMT of old-crop soybeans from the U.S. Why would China purchase from the U.S. when Brazil’s soybeans are over $1 cheaper than U.S. soybeans?

While this doesn’t make economic sense, Susan Stroud with No Bull Ag says these political goodwill purchases are being made by government entities to put in their reserve. Lyu says the relationship needs to be stabilized before moving forward.

“China and the U.S. need to reposition their relationship overall so that we have a bigger-picture arrangement in which China is no longer considered as a rival competitor to an extent, not a rival or enemy of the United States,” Lyu says. “There are so many things happening here that also hamper China’s interest, such as Chinese exports into this country or the Chinese investment into this country, so we would like this relationship to be totally benign.”

Under the latest trade framework, China is also expected to buy 25 MMT of U.S. soybeans for the following three years.

“If you consider the potential for 25 million metric ton per year in three subsequent years that’s still well below the five-year average,” Stroud says. “China has yet to confirm any of these amounts that have been touted by Washington.”

There’s still the lingering question about what happens after that? The U.S. is already a secondary supplier of soybeans to China behind Brazil.

Brazil Primary Supplier of Soybeans to China

Brazil is producing over 6.5 billion bushels of soybeans annually, and Stroud says their rapid conversion of pastureland into soybean production has reshaped global flows.

“A 5% average increase in soy area annually has taken them from an emerging market to a global powerhouse in the blink of an eye,” she explains.

Brazil first outexported the U.S. in 2012. Today, exports more than double the U.S. program. Since the last trade war, Stroud says Brazil has added 30 million acres of soybeans, which is a harvested area larger than the top four U.S. soybean states combined in 2025.

“In the past 25 years, Brazil has accounted for half of all of soybean global area expansion,” Stroud says. “When you have a tremendous growth in production, naturally, you’re getting rid of it via export.”

Stroud says Brazil is actively making infrastructure improvements from farm to port to not only accommodate its expanding production but also improve efficiency. China actively has a hand in this as Brazil is their number one supplier of soybeans. On average, 50% of Brazil’s total soy demand is exported to China compared with one in four bushels of U.S. soybean demand.

Brazil Has Room to Expand Soybean Acres

Brazil has the potential to expand acreage by converting an available 70 million acres of degraded pasture to cropland. Aaron Edwards with Santos Springs LLC says Brazil’s growth is far from over.

“For every acre of row-crop land, there’s two acres of degraded pasture,” Edwards says. “Without any deforestation, a significant amount of that land could become row crops.”

Agronomically, he says, with a few tons of lime, phosphorus and minimum tillage, in two or three crops these fields could be producing on par with Midwestern “I” states.

“Every acre you bring into soybean production, about one-third also become double-crop corn or double-cropped cotton acres,” Edwards adds. “Brazil expansion is a bear.”

Then there’s the potential of improvements via irrigation. He’s hearing estimates of 10 million acres going under pivot within the next decade.

“It’s a tropical climate, so one acre of irrigation is three crops a year, depending on the mix, or seven crops in two years,” Edwards explains. “That right there is 30 million acres equivalent of production.”

Currently, they have less than 15% on-farm storage and that leaves potential for better margin management on the table.

“Basis swings on soybeans are $2 to $3,” Edwards says. “Margins can increase just by putting in on-farm storage and managing basis.”

It takes a massive amount of capital investment to drive acreage and yield growth, he adds, but it creates long-term supply pressure in global oilseeds.

The Brazil “Paradox:” Expansion Amid Bankruptcies

The paradox, Edwards says, is how does Brazil rapidly expand amid bankruptcies, but he thinks the two can coexist.

“The primary economic incentive isn’t operating margins — it’s land appreciation from converting pasture to cropland,” he says.

He thinks cash flows and aggressive expansion increase supply and lower prices, making periodic financial stress inevitable.

“The land appreciation of developing these lands is what’s causing the expansion, causing the bankruptcies and putting soybeans on the market at such a cheap price,” Edwards explains. “However, the microeconomic incentives of expansion are there as long as there’s land appreciation.”

Rethinking Global Competition in Soybeans

The U.S. still has structural advantages such as infrastructure and logistics, plus capital, strong risk management and supportive policy, according to Edwards.

“The U.S. is still the best place to do business, and at the end of the day, you run a business,” he adds. “We have better logistics, better capital markets, better infrastructure, better risk management tools and more supportive policy. Those are the things that allow you to run a successful business.”

With that said, Edwards says farmers might have to rethink global competition. This includes who produces the most soybeans, and who delivers the cheapest export supply? Where can farmers sustainably build profitable enterprises? He says leadership in volume doesn’t always equal leadership in farm profitability.

U.S. Needs to Pivot to Domestic Demand

The U.S. is already expanding crush a projected 30% in the next few years to process bean oil to meet the growing demand for low-carbon fuels. Stroud says that might be one of the best options for the U.S. to find more domestic demand and decrease its dependence on China and exports.

“Right now, we’re about 50% of the way there in the buildout,” Stroud says. “This marketing year, we are adding 115 million bushels of annual crush capacity. Compare that with typical exports to China in the 1-billion-bushel range and there’s really no comparison. But, we are moving the needle.”

She cautions this growth is policy dependent, but the U.S. is also exporting more soybean meal than ever before.

Argentina Viewpoint

Lee Trimmer with Green Shoots LLC has spent the last 25 years working in Argentina.

“We have great soils, we’re close to the ports and we can create crops at a better price than other places,” he says. “Honestly, it comes down to who can do it cheaper.”

However, there is a paradigm shift happening with Brazil becoming the largest exporter. As farmers, he says, they have had to reinvent their business model.

Trimmer says Argentina is also one of the most complex and unforgiving places to be a farmer. His plan was to buy machinery, build a storage facility, stay away from livestock, and try to start buying land. However, the business he built in Argentina was the exact opposite.

He says the key to staying competitive has been to find great mentors. He is also involved in a peer group in Argentina known as CREA in which farmers open up their farms to bring valuable experiences to other farmers. They talk about what works or doesn’t work on their farms and provide other advice.

“I think a lot of it has to come down to farmer savvy, education, getting to know your peers, finding niches and getting ideas from other producers,” Trimmer says.

He told farmers at Top Producer Summit they can’t do anything about trade wars with China or Brazil increasing exports every year. But they can look to their own farms and make changes that open up new opportunities.

“I encourage farmers to put time and money into educating themselves, not just on producing more bushels. Dig down deeper to make your farm and legacy resilient for the future,” he says.

A 2014 Repeat? Why This Meteorologist Sees 'Bumper Crop Potential' for 2026

Wed, 11 Feb 2026 17:37:04 GMT

The weather outlook for 2026 is one of “cautious optimism.” While there is less immediate concern compared to the start of 2025, Matt Reardon, senior atmospheric scientist for Nutrien Ag Solutions, says the “spring predictability horizon” remains a factor where conditions could still shift.

El Niño and La Niña are the two opposing phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. This cycle describes the fluctuations in temperature between the ocean and atmosphere in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.

“That gives us some sense of where things might tilt weather-wise, particularly in winter,” Reardon says. “In summer, there are some correlations, too.”

For many U.S. farmers, El Niño is often welcomed because it can bring increased precipitation to major growing regions, though it can also cause flooding in some areas. Meanwhile, La Niña is frequently associated with increased drought risk in the Southern Plains and Mid-South, which can lead to yield-robbing conditions if the pattern persists into the summer.

“We tend to root for El Niño, particularly in North America, as it tends to be beneficial for our growing regions with a little more precipitation,” Reardon says. “But those correlations are very far from a home run. We’re talking just a slight lean in that direction.”

He says the forecast predicts fading out of La Niña pretty quickly in spring and heading toward an El Niño, potentially by summer.

What Can Farmers Expect This Spring?

“What I’m looking at as we head toward both spring planting then summertime heat and real drought risk in June and July is that one sea surface temperature is closer to home in the Northeast Pacific,” he says. “We found, especially this decade, that as those sea surface temperatures go, our season tends to go.”

Last year, with all the drought concerns going into 2025 growing season, water temperatures in the Northeast Pacific stayed warm – actually record warm.

“We had a great growing season for the most part with plenty of moisture, if not too much, in some areas,” Reardon says. “In 2023, those water temperatures stayed a little bit cooler, and we had more drought risk.”

Reardon admits he’s learned that “cautious optimism about where things are headed” is often helpful when determining weather expectations.

As he looks toward 2026, he sees a similar start to 2014, which was a huge bumper crop year.

“But things can change,” Reardon adds. “There’s that spring predictability horizon we’ve got to leap over here.”

Is Drought Likely in 2026?

One of his concerns is that the latest USDA Drought Monitor shows some overwinter drought, which he says isn’t uncommon.

“We’ve seen a lot of that this decade. Spring rains can quickly make up for a lot of that,” Reardon says.

On Feb. 9, the Southern Plains saw a lot of grass fires. He says some of those were prescribed burns, but winds will be picking up again over the next 10 days.

“We are keeping an eye on the Southern Plains,” Reardon says. “They are getting some rain over the next seven days, but that’s an area that’s so prone to drought, especially in spring. If we see it build there and then try to leach over to Little Rock or Nashville, that can start to become a concern.”

In big yield-robbing drought years, it often flares in the Mid-South or even the Southeast over into the southern plains, first in April or May, and then tends to spread north.

“That’s a common behavior of some of these big concerning years of the past like 2006 or 2012, so we are keeping an eye on that right now,” he says. “But the good news is, in the next 10 days, we are going to get some moisture into the ground.”

A Crisis of Confidence: Inside the Ag Economy and How Farmers Are Preparing for What’s Next

Wed, 11 Feb 2026 15:11:32 GMT

If there is one word that defines the U.S. agricultural economy in early 2026, it’s confidence, or more precisely, the lack of it. It’s not just an eroding confidence in data, but declining confidence in policy and whether the traditional tools used to stabilize farm income still work.

The first Farm Journal Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor of 2026, coupled with input from producers and ag retailers, reveals an industry that broadly agrees it is in trouble, but sharply disagrees on why, who should fix it and how farmers will survive it.

Across the economists, farmers and retailers surveyed, the results paint a picture of a crop sector stuck in recession, magnified by the squeeze caused by high input costs and low commodity prices.

Factors Driving the Health of the Ag Economy Today

Economists in January’s survey pointed to a familiar but intensifying split in the ag economy: strength in livestock, particularly beef cattle, versus persistent financial stress across much of the row-crop sector. Tight cattle supplies and strong global demand for animal protein continue to support profitability in the livestock sector, even as economists warn that future prospects remain uncertain. At the same time, global surpluses of corn, soybeans and wheat, combined with weak export demand for certain commodities, are weighing heavily on crop prices.

(January 2026 Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor)

Across nearly all responses, margin pressure emerged as a dominant concern. Elevated input costs, rising interest rates and tightening access to operating loans are pushing break-even costs above market prices for many producers, especially in grain production.

Economists repeatedly cited policy uncertainty, ranging from trade relations to biofuels policy, as a pivotal factor. While government assistance and expectations of additional ad hoc payments are providing some near-term relief, many note those funds are largely being used to service debt rather than reinvest in operations, underscoring ongoing liquidity challenges in farm country.

In the anonymous survey, when asked the two factors driving the health of the ag economy today, the economists said:

“Continued strength in the cattle business and that the world is awash in corn, wheat and soybeans.”
“Cost-price margins: Agriculture’s economic health is being driven first by whether commodity prices are high enough to cover still-elevated input, labor and operating costs.”
“Policy uncertainty hurting export demand and biofuels demand — cattle receipts providing lucrative returns but with uncertain future prospects.”
“Break-even costs above market prices, demand uncertainty on multiple fronts.”
“Persistent high input costs and uncertainty regarding trade, particularly trade with China.”
“Access to operating loans and the amount of debt producers are carrying from the previous two years of down revenue.”
“Positives include strong beef cattle margins and relatively stable land prices; negatives are burdensome crop supplies, high input prices and very low liquidity.”

A Crop Sector in Recession By Consensus

January 2026 Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lori Hayes )

On the state of the economy itself, there is little debate:

76% of economists say the U.S. crop sector is in a recession.
74% of producers agree.
More than 76% of economists believe conditions are worse than a year ago.

January 2026 Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lori Hayes )

Economists warn this environment is accelerating consolidation, with 72% expecting low prices and high costs to push weaker operations out of the market with 80% of retailers saying it will increase consolidation in the industry.

When you look at what’s preventing profitability, high input costs remain the dominant hurdle for producers:

67% of producers cite input prices as their biggest obstacle.
62% of economists agree that high input costs are a hurdle for farmers in 2026.

Sticky costs for fertilizer, labor, interest rates and materials, combined with soft commodity prices, have pushed many producers to sell at or below break-even.

January 2026 Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lori Hayes)

“Maximum Is Rarely Optimum:” How Farmers Say They’ll Stay Alive and Competitive in 2026

When asked a simple but heavy question: “What can you do to be successful in 2026,” farmers didn’t sugarcoat the challenge. Their answers reflect pressure, fatigue and uncertainty. But underneath the blunt language is a clear, consistent strategy emerging across operations: protect cash, defend ROI and stay flexible long enough to outlast the cycle.

While several producers said they’re looking to diversify as a key to success, the most dominant theme was cutting costs to the bone, especially when it comes to capital spending. Farmers repeatedly emphasized zero, or near-zero, capex, delaying equipment upgrades and scrutinizing every purchase.

January 2026 Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lori Hayes )

The mindset is not panic, but discipline. In this month’s survey, farmers said the key to success is:

“Zero capital spending or as close to zero as possible.”
“Don’t buy anything that isn’t absolutely necessary.”
“Hold off on major capital expenditures.”
“Ask yourself before you purchase something, is it a want or a need. Wants can break you fast.”

Many farmers framed this as a return to fundamentals: preserving working capital, maintaining flexibility, and avoiding irreversible decisions in an uncertain margin environment.

The Federal Aid Gap: Band-Aid or Lifeline?

January 2026 Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lori Hayes )

Few issues expose the disconnect between economists and producers more clearly than federal aid.

There is broad agreement on one point: Ad hoc farm payments are not a long-term solution. Just under 60% of both economists and producers describe them as “a Band-Aid that won’t heal the wound.”

January 2025 Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lori Hayes )

Beyond that, thoughts on federal aid differ.

51% of producers believe more than $20 billion in additional aid is required to stabilize the ag economy.
28% of economists believe no additional aid is needed at all while the remainder are split across ranges from $11 billion to $20 billion.

January 2026 Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lori Hayes)

This gap matters because it directly influences behavior. Both groups agree that government policy will be a major driver of planting decisions in 2026, with a clear bias toward corn . Expectations around payments, programs and biofuels demand are shaping acres before a seed ever goes in the ground.

January 2026 Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lori Hayes )

Biofuels: One Industry, Two Visions of Salvation

No policy area reveals the philosophical divide between “on the ground” agriculture and “on the spreadsheet” analysis more clearly than biofuels. Producers want more demand now, whereas economists are looking five to 10 years out.

Producers and retailers overwhelmingly prioritize E15 expansion, viewing it as the single fastest way to generate real, immediate demand for corn and reduce reliance on government support.

January 2026 Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lori Hayes)

Economists, while supportive of E15, are more focused on structural, longer-term demand drivers, particularly:

45Z tax credit
Development of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) markets

Among economists, 39% ranked the 45Z tax credit as the most impactful policy, while SAF ranked much higher than it did among producers where 44% ranked SAF as least impactful.

The Collapse of Trust in USDA Data

USDA’s January Crop Production Report was a point of contention last month. With much debate about the validity of the latest yield, acreage and production data from USDA, Farm Journal’s January survey results is the near-universal erosion of trust in USDA data, not only among producers, but also economists and retailers.

68% of economists say they are not as confident in USDA reporting as they were in the past.
73% of producers agree.
78% of retailers say their confidence in USDA has waned.

January 2026 Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lori Hayes)

For economists, the concern centers on revisions, lagging indicators and the challenge of modeling markets amid policy uncertainty. For producers, the distrust is far more emotional and personal. Open-ended responses frequently referenced “market manipulation,” “bearish curveballs” and a sense that official numbers no longer reflect what’s happening at the farm gate.

In a market environment already defined by thin margins, the loss of confidence in baseline data further complicates marketing, risk management and lending decisions. When trust in the numbers erodes, so does the ability to plan.

Political Support Remains, But Confidence Is Slipping

One year into the Trump administration, producers remain broadly supportive of the president. But confidence in Washington’s ability to improve the ag economy is fading.

52% of economists say they are less confident the administration can improve agriculture.
44% of producers report declining confidence as well.

January 2026 Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lori Hayes)

The divide between the groups is notable. Only 8% of economists feel more confident than a year ago, while 34% of producers say their confidence has increased, suggesting optimism on the farm still exists, even as economists grow more skeptical.

Trade uncertainty, shifting biofuels policy signals and questions about the future of ad hoc aid have all contributed to a sense that political alignment does not automatically translate into economic relief.

Strategy vs. Survival

Where the survey becomes most revealing is in the open-ended responses about survival. Economists see a severe but cyclical downturn. Many producers see a structural breaking point.

Economists speak the language of optimization. Their recommendations include:

Margin-first decision-making
Defensive marketing
Strategic planning
Focusing on high-productivity acres
Driving down per-unit input costs

Producers speak the language of survival, saying the key to weathering this story will be:

“Find an off-farm job”
“Send my spouse back to work”
“Sell out”

Some responses went further, referencing bankruptcy and financial collapse, a level of personal desperation absent from economists’ professional analysis.

One producer wrote: “I am facing financial crisis and homelessness … in the worst financial situation ever.”

An economist, by contrast, said: “Key to profitability lies in driving input costs down… a shift from maximizing inputs to optimization.”

Navigating 2026: From Maximum Yield to Maximum ROI

Despite the pressure, confidence in farmers themselves remains surprisingly strong.

Between 62% and 80% of respondents believe producers will find a way through, by abandoning the long-held pursuit of maximum yield in favor of maximum return on investment.

January Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lori Hayes)

How that transition looks will vary, according to economists and producers, including:

More defensive marketing
Reduced input intensity
Greater scrutiny of every acre
More off-farm income
Tough conversations with lenders

The 2026 ag economy will not be defined by a single policy fix or market rally. It will be shaped by trust, or the lack of it, by how quickly demand can be grown without government intervention and by how much pain producers can absorb before the structure of the industry permanently changes.

Bottom Line for the Ag Industry

The U.S. ag economy enters 2026 in a clear crop-sector recession, but the deeper crisis is one of confidence. High input costs, weak prices, policy uncertainty and eroding trust in data have pushed many producers from planning for profitability into fighting for survival. Economists largely view the downturn as cyclical and manageable through optimization, while farmers experience it as a structural stress test on their operations and livelihoods.

How 2026 ultimately unfolds will depend less on short-term aid and more on rebuilding trust, growing demand without permanent government support and farmers’ ability to preserve cash, adapt quickly and endure a prolonged margin squeeze.

Fertilizer Prices Top List of 2026 Profitability Threats as Global Supply Tightens

Wed, 11 Feb 2026 19:00:02 GMT

When Farm Journal asked economists, farmers and ag retailers what could threaten profitability in 2026 in the latest Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor , fertilizer prices rose to the top. Despite farmers cutting back on fertilizer and increased political scrutiny, analysts say the odds of meaningful relief remain slim.

“There’s never a moment where I like to say prices can’t come down,” says Josh Linville, vice president of fertilizer at StoneX Group. “Because the second you do that, the market will humble you. But when I look at everything that’s happening globally, and I look at how little time we really have between now and the start of spring, I see a lot more roads that lead to flat or higher prices than I do to lower ones.”

Cutting Back Fertilizer Has Limits

Farmers are clearly responding to high prices, particularly on nutrients where application can be adjusted. Linville says phosphate took the brunt of those cuts last fall.

“If you go back to the fall season, we believe phosphate application in North America was down about 20% from normal,” Linville said at the 2026 Top Producer Summit . “That’s exactly what we expected to see. We had high fertilizer prices, low grain prices and phosphate sitting there saying, ‘I’m the highest-cost input, and I’m variable-rate.’ If you’re a farmer looking to cut costs, that’s where you go first.”

What happens next remains uncertain, and if you ask Linville, that uncertainty itself is a risk to the market.

“The question we don’t know yet is what that means for spring,” Linville says. “Is spring demand down another 20%? Or does some of that fall reduction just get pushed into the spring window?”

Even with reductions, acreage levels keep overall demand elevated.

“At the end of the day, we’re still talking about planting roughly 93 million acres of corn in 2026,” Linville says. “There are people making a very good argument for 95 million acres. I’m not ready to move our team there yet, but even at 93, that’s still a massive amount of demand.”

And for certain nutrients, farmers simply don’t have a choice.

“If you’re going to plant corn, if you’re going to plant wheat, you have to have nitrogen,” Linville points out. “There’s no getting around that.”

“Waning Optimism” on Price Relief

From Rabobank’s perspective, the outlook is growing more discouraging. Samuel Taylor, farm inputs analyst for Rabobank, says hopes for relief on fertilizer affordability are fading.

“To be honest, I think we’re going to be talking about high input prices and poor affordability through most of this year, and even into the third and fourth quarters,” he says. “Some nutrients might see short-term improvement, but phosphate remains the biggest concern.

“There is some optimism around ammonia,” he adds. “We do have new North American capacity coming online, and over a longer time period that should help. But when it comes to phosphate affordability, we actually run the risk that average phosphate prices this year could be higher than last year.”

A Hard Message for 2026

Neither analyst downplays how difficult the current environment is for farmers.

“Farmers should be frustrated. They should be angry, upset, every negative emotion under the sun. When you look at urea relative to corn prices for this time of year, we’ve never seen that ratio this high going back to at least 2018,” Linville says. “Phosphate ratios are as high as ever starting a year.”

And prices are moving the wrong direction.

“Since the first half of December, urea is up about $100 a ton,” Linville says. “UAN looks like it’s about ready to jump. Anhydrous looks like it’s about ready to go. Phosphate is likely to rally as soon as spring demand shows up.”

Taylor is blunt in his assessment, as he thinks it’s unlikely we’ll see fertilizer prices come down.

“I’m fairly bearish on the outlook for input prices coming down,” he says. “In many ways, we’re just kicking the can down the road.”

Phosphate Prices Are Being Set Globally

Both analysts point to phosphate as the clearest example of why fertilizer prices might stay elevated and why the problem is structural.

“When we talk about phosphate, we’re not talking about a lack of competition,” Linville says. “We’re talking about a lack of global supply.”

Production and exports are concentrated in just five countries: China, Russia, Morocco, Saudi Arabia and the United States. China alone dominates global trade.

“Normally, China exports 8 to 10 million tons of phosphate,” Linville says. “In 2025, they exported just over 5 million tons. As we sit here right now, with the information we have, China is not exporting phosphate until August.”

The impact of that absence ripples through the entire market.

“If the world’s biggest exporter is not participating for several months of the year, global prices are going to be higher,” Linville says. “There’s nothing the U.S. can do about that. We move up with the global market.”

Taylor sees the same dynamic playing out, and he doesn’t believe it will resolve quickly.

“China is looking like an unreliable supplier to the global market again,” Taylor says. “When you combine that with geopolitical risks in other key producing regions, this is starting to look much more structural than temporary.”

High Costs Are Forcing Production Offline

Even if demand softens, analysts say prices have a built-in floor because production costs have surged.

“One of the biggest things people miss is intermediate pricing,” Taylor says. “Sulfur prices ran up in the third and fourth quarters, and that’s pulling marginal phosphate production off the market.”

That squeeze is already visible, according to both Taylor and Linville.

“The stripping margins for phosphate producers have collapsed through the floor,” Taylor says. “In certain geographies, the stripping margin, which is essentially your gross margin, is actually negative.”

“We’ve already seen an [Single Superphosphate] facility in Brazil shut down because the cost of production was higher than the value of the finished product,” he says. “If we try to push prices lower from here, you’re not going to get cheaper fertilizer. You’re just going to get less of it.”

In the U.S., phosphate rock availability adds another constraint.

“We only have so much phosphate rock left. Producers aren’t going to mine it at a loss. As soon as you get back to breakeven or worse, production shuts off, and that lost supply fixes the price again,” Linville adds.

Consolidation Isn’t the Whole Story

With fertilizer prices high, consolidation in the industry has drawn increasing scrutiny from policymakers . Taylor acknowledges the frustration but cautions against simplistic conclusions.

“I’m not sure I’m the right person to say whether there are anti-competitive practices,” Taylor says. “But what I do think gets missed in this conversation is the sheer cost of bringing new production online.”

He points to multibillion-dollar investments, long permitting timelines and environmental obligations.

“Look at the Canadian potash expansion projects. We’re talking about $8 billion in capital. Look at retirement obligations at phosphate facilities. Look at the cost of building a nitrogen or ammonia plant today. You need a very strong balance sheet just to survive that process,” Taylor says.

That reality creates economies of scale that are difficult to avoid.

“We do need some semblance of consolidation,” he adds. “That’s not necessarily the answer farmers want to hear, but if you aim for total self-reliance, particularly in potash, you might actually end up paying more, not less.”

Nitrogen Shutdowns Aren’t Manipulation

Accusations of intentional supply restriction are especially common in nitrogen markets. Linville, who previously worked for a nitrogen manufacturer, pushes back on that idea.

Plant outages, he says, are often misunderstood and planned shutdowns are often a safer option.

“You either shut it down with the people, the parts and the plan in place, or you wait for something to break, and then it’s down even longer,” Linville exp From the outside, it can look like manipulation. From the inside, it’s just reality.”

Policy Is Blurring Market Signals

Taylor says domestic policy is also preventing markets from correcting.

“Government support is blurring the demand falloff we might otherwise see, and that demand destruction is often what helps correct prices,” Taylor says.

But then when you throw in trade policies, Taylor says that adds another layer of cost.

“We’ve seen reciprocal tariffs, countervailing duties and those costs are passed straight through to farmers,” Taylor says. “There are mechanisms within our control that could help, but there’s very little we can do about Chinese domestic policy or geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, which sit right at the heart of global fertilizer production.”

What Farmers Need to Know for 2026

Despite the frustration, both analysts stress discipline.

“My advice is always the same: Farm to return on investment, not to yield,” Taylor says.

“Be emotional right now, that’s human,” Linville adds. “But when it comes time to make decisions for your fields or your marketing, leave that emotion at the door. That’s where people get hurt.”

For now, fertilizer remains one of the biggest threats to farm profitability in 2026 and one that might not offer easy relief.

Tight Margins, Tough Choices: How Row Crop Farmers Can Weather Today’s Financial Squeeze

Tue, 10 Feb 2026 20:16:40 GMT

Row crop farmers across the U.S. are facing a financial environment that leaves little room for error. Rising production costs, persistently high interest rates and commodity prices that have failed to keep pace are combining to pressure margins at nearly every level of the operation.

From the ag lending perspective, Alan Hoskins, president and national sales director at American Farm Mortgage and Financial Services, says the current cycle is forcing producers to rethink not just their numbers, but how they approach decision-making altogether.

During the 2026 Top Producer Summit, Hoskins says both farmers and ag lenders need to remember there’s a clear differentiation between profit and cash flow. And he says when it comes to cash flow, that’s something farmers should be looking at on a monthly basis.

“There are definitely a fair number of challenges out there,” Hoskins says. “When you look at 2026, the numbers don’t have the appearance of being better than what we saw in 2025.”

Input Costs Lead the Pain

Among the many pressures facing producers, Hoskins says higher input costs remain the most immediate and widespread challenge.

“Over the past few months, the increase in input costs is a significant driver in what we’re seeing across agriculture,” he says. “Commodity prices being where they are certainly contributes to that as well.”

Hoskins notes that while producers are keenly aware of rising costs, marketing decisions can sometimes compound the problem. In volatile markets, hesitation to price grain can leave margins exposed.

“There are times where there’s a little bit of inertia on the part of producers to take advantage of sales opportunities when they present themselves,” he says. “There’s always the hope that the margin will improve, but that’s exactly where a written marketing plan becomes extremely valuable.”

A marketing plan, Hoskins says, helps remove emotion from pricing decisions and provides structure during uncertain times.

Where Farmers Still Have Levers to Pull

Despite the headwinds, Hoskins believes producers still have meaningful opportunities to manage costs — particularly by scrutinizing inputs more closely.

“Looking at fertility levels across different farms and making sure you’re applying the proper amounts of fertilizer is one place to start,” he says. “Every field doesn’t necessarily need the same approach.”

He also encourages producers to evaluate field operations carefully, weighing whether a tillage pass truly adds value compared to alternative chemical applications.

“These are the kinds of decisions that, taken individually, may not seem significant. But collectively, they can have a real impact on the bottom line,” Hoskins says.

Insurance is another area he believes deserves renewed attention.

“With the increases we’ve seen in equipment values and real estate values, it makes sense to revisit property and casualty insurance,” he says. “There may be opportunities to adjust coverage levels and capture some savings without increasing risk.”

Financial Stress Is Real, And It’s Growing

From a lender’s vantage point, Hoskins says the financial strain facing row-crop producers is increasingly visible. While not every farmer lost money in 2025, many operations ended the year with thinner working capital and less flexibility.

“Were there producers who made it through 2025 without losing money? Yes, but they were more the exception than the rule,” Hoskins says.

Looking ahead, he doesn’t expect conditions to ease quickly. That makes proactive planning and communication critical.

“When challenges exist, don’t try to solve them on your own,” Hoskins says. “Use the resources available to you: your lender, your accountant, your advisers.”

He cautions against reacting too aggressively in ways that could harm long-term viability.

“The goal is to weather this cycle,” he says. “It’s not to cut the meat completely off the bone and compromise your ability to operate when conditions do improve.”

Adjustment to Higher Interest Rates

Higher interest rates remain a sticking point for many producers, particularly those accustomed to historically low borrowing costs. Hoskins says perspective is important.

“While rates are much higher than what we’ve been used to over the last 25 years, if you look historically, they’re not that far out of line with the last 40 or 50 years,” he says.

The bigger challenge, he adds, may be mental rather than mathematical.

“We were in a very low-rate environment for a long time,” Hoskins says. “Adjusting to today’s rates requires a shift in expectations.”

To adapt, he advises producers to closely examine their borrowing structure across operating loans, equipment financing and real estate debt.

“If you’ve got debt that’s been out there for 12 or 18 months, there may be opportunities to restructure,” he says.

He also encourages producers to take advantage of low- or zero-percent financing options on inputs when available and to maintain open communication with lenders.

“Your interest rate is a product of your risk profile,” Hoskins says. “Having honest conversations with your lender helps you understand where you stand and what options you have.”

Are More Farmers Exiting?

With margins compressed and financing tighter, Hoskins says some producers are choosing to exit the business, but for different reasons.

“There are producers looking at 2026 and even 2027 and saying, ‘I don’t see things improving materially,’” he says. “They don’t want to see any more working capital erosion or equity erosion, so they’re making that decision on their own.”

At the same time, Hoskins acknowledges others may not have a choice.

“There will be producers who are unable to obtain the funding they need to go another year,” he says. “In those cases, the decision to step away isn’t voluntary.”

Still, he does not expect a widespread collapse.

“I wouldn’t characterize this as something that’s going to be across the board,” Hoskins says. “But with the challenges we’re facing, we will see examples of both.”

Mindset Matters As Much As Math

While financial statements tell part of the story, Hoskins believes mindset plays an equally important role in determining how producers navigate difficult cycles.

“The key truly has nothing to do with numbers,” he says. “It has everything to do with mindset.”

Hoskins encourages producers to define clear goals, not just for the coming year, but over a longer horizon.

“What are your one-year goals? Your three-year goals? Your five-year goals?” he asks. “Having that longer-term perspective changes how you view short-term challenges.”

He believes producers who approach decisions with a clear sense of priorities tend to make more measured, sustainable choices.

“When you understand your priorities as people first and foremost, you start looking at the financials differently,” Hoskins says. “That ultimately leads to better decisions.”

USDA Numbers Confirm the Reality

USDA issued its first net farm income forecast for 2026 just last week, but the bigger surprise was the fact the agency revised its net farm income forecast for 2025, showing sharper declines than earlier estimates. Hoskins says those revisions align with what they are seeing on the lending side.

“It doesn’t surprise me that USDA lowered 2025 farm income,” he says. “As more data becomes available, it gives a clearer picture of where reality really lies.”

While the outlook remains challenging, Hoskins stresses agriculture has endured difficult cycles before.

“We’re not going to lose all of America’s farmers and ranchers,” he says. “But we do have challenges within this industry that need to be addressed.”

For producers willing to plan ahead, stay disciplined and lean on trusted advisers, Hoskins believes there is still a path forward, even in one of the tightest margin environments in recent memory.

One Big Beautiful Bill Might Force Farmers to Rethink Farm Business Structures

Tue, 10 Feb 2026 15:02:09 GMT

At a time when farm income is under growing pressure, the One Big Beautiful Bill is reshaping the farm safety net in ways that go well beyond bigger checks or better crop insurance coverage. According to Farm CPA Paul Neiffer, the legislation could quietly push producers toward fundamental changes in how their farm businesses are structured, decisions that could have long-term implications for taxes, payments, and succession planning.

While the bill was signed into law in July of 2025, there’s still guidance that needs to be set before farmers can make vital decisions. And some of the most favorable changes- like to crop insurance coverage- won’t go into effect until late this year.

While much of the early conversation around the bill has focused on higher reference prices and stronger crop insurance subsidies, during the 2026 Top Producer Summit, Neiffer told attendees the real impact may not be fully understood yet, and farmers should be paying close attention.

“This bill changes the rules we’ve all been operating under for the last 20 years,” Neiffer says. “And when the rules change, the structure of the farm suddenly matters a lot more than it used to.”

Financial Stress Is Already Building in Farm Country

The bill arrives against a backdrop of tightening farm finances. USDA’s updated net farm income forecast showed a sharper-than-expected decline for 2025 , with early projections for 2026 offering little comfort, particularly for row-crop producers, a trend doesn’t surprise Neiffer.

“It peaked out in 2022, and it’s definitely been going down ever since,” he explains. “If you’re a row-crop farmer, 2026 is probably going to look a lot like 2025 unless something changes on the price side.”

While government payments will help stabilize income, Neiffer is blunt about what would happen without them.

“Without ARC, PLC, the FSA payments, the SDRP top-ups, without all of that, most row crop farmers would absolutely be struggling right now,” he says.

Payments tied to the One Big Beautiful Bill are expected to start flowing in October, providing a critical backstop during a period when margins remain thin and balance sheets are tightening across large parts of the country.

Crop Insurance: One of the Bill’s Biggest Wins

Neiffer gives the crop insurance provisions in the One Big Beautiful Bill high marks , calling them one of the clearest positives for producers.

“I’d give it a B-plus to A-minus,” says Neiffer.

Why such a high grade? The bill boosts premium subsidies across most revenue protection levels:

Coverage levels from 55% to 75% receive a 5 percentage-point increase in premium subsidies.
80% and 85% coverage levels see a 3 percentage-point increase.
Supplemental Coverage Option (SCO) now extends up to 90% coverage, and farmers can now pair ARC with SCO, something previously prohibited.
SCO subsidies jump from 65% to 80%, making higher coverage far more affordable.

For many producers, especially wheat growers, these changes significantly reduce out-of-pocket costs while expanding protection.

Beginning farmers also receive a major boost. Previously limited to a 10% premium subsidy bump for five years, the bill expands the benefit to 10 years, with even higher subsidies in the early years.

“For young farmers, it can now make financial sense to farm on their own instead of with their parents,” Neiffer said. “From a family standpoint, they’re actually going to make more money.”

Prevent Plant Still a Pain Point

Not everything is a win. One of the main reasons Neiffer doesn’t give the crop insurance changes a straight A is because of changes to prevent plant, something that remains a concern, especially in high-risk regions like Arkansas and the Dakotas.

Under previous rules, farmers could buy up an additional 10% of coverage. That was later reduced to 5%, and Neiffer says USDA’s Risk Management Agency is still discussing cutting or eliminating that option entirely.

“That extra 5% really matters when you’ve got too much water,” he said.

While not enough to outweigh the bill’s positives, the issue drags down what could otherwise be a near-perfect crop insurance package.

Beginning Farmers See Expanded Incentives

The bill also significantly expands benefits for beginning farmers, extending premium subsidy incentives from five years to ten , while also increasing the subsidy percentages in the early years.

“Before, they got a 10% bump, but only for five years,” Neiffer says. “Now it’s 15% in years one and two, 13% in year three, 11% in year four, and 10% all the way through year ten.”

That change, he says, could alter how farm families bring the next generation into the operation.

“For a lot of young farmers, it may actually make more sense financially to farm on their own instead of farming with their parents,” Neiffer says. “If they’re part of the parents’ operation, they may or may not qualify for those premium subsidies. On their own, they do.”

From a purely financial standpoint, Neiffer says some families could generate more income overall by restructuring how younger operators enter the business.

Prevent Plant Remains a Lingering Concern

Despite the positives, not every provision landed well with producers. Prevent plant coverage remains a contentious issue, particularly in regions prone to excess moisture.

“Under the old rules, you could buy up an extra 10% of prevent plant coverage,” Neiffer adds. “That got cut to 5%, and now RMA is still talking about cutting or eliminating that extra 5% altogether.”

For producers in places like Arkansas and the Dakotas, that reduction matters.

“When you’ve got too much water, that extra coverage helps mitigate a really bad situation,” he says. “Losing it would hurt.”

Even so, Neiffer says the overall crop insurance package remains strong.

“That’s really the only thing dragging it down just a little bit,” he said.

ARC and PLC Changes Offer Ongoing Protection

Beyond insurance, Neiffer points to ARC and PLC changes as one of the most important income stabilizers in the bill, especially because they are designed to work over time, not just in a single marketing year.

“The increase in reference prices and effective reference prices isn’t a one-shot deal,” he says. “It happens this year, it happens next year, and it keeps happening as long as prices stay depressed.”

The bill also includes what Neiffer describes as an “automatic put” built into ARC and PLC, designed to cushion farmers during prolonged periods of weak prices.

“That’s going to help smooth out income over multiple years, and right now, that’s exactly what farmers need,” says Neiffer.

The Structural Shift Farmers May Not Be Ready For

The most overlooked part of the One Big Beautiful Bill, and potentially what may be the most consequential part of the legislation, is how it changes payment limits tied to farm business structure.

Under old rules, LLCs and S corporations were often limited to a single payment cap. The new law shifts that framework, allowing multiple payment limits based on the number of equal owners , depending on how the operation is structured.

That opens the door to significant restructuring. According to Neiffer:

General partnerships may move to LLCs for liability protection and expanded payment eligibility.
C corporations, which remain stuck with a single payment limit, may convert to S corporations.
Some farms are already making the switch.

“I’ve talked to several farmers already that either have switched or will be switching,” Neiffer says. “And it’s completely because of the One Big Beautiful Bill.”

Still, he urges caution. USDA guidance on how these new rules will be applied has not yet been released.

“Before I tell anyone to change their structure, we need that guidance,” Neiffer says. “Otherwise, you risk unintended consequences that wipe out the benefit.”

A Note of Caution on Taxes and Spending

Neiffer also warns producers not to let tax provisions drive equipment purchases or expansion decisions.

“There are a lot of good tax provisions in this bill,” he said. “But farmers tend to get hooked on them.”

He points specifically to bonus depreciation as an area of concern.

“They go out and buy something just because they can deduct it,” he says. “If they finance it with debt, they don’t always think about what happens the next year, or the year after that, or the year after that.”

The result, he says, can be financial strain that lasts long after the tax benefit fades.

Guidance Still Needed Before Big Decisions

Despite the potential advantages of restructuring, Neiffer urges farmers to have patience. USDA guidance on how the new payment limit rules will be applied has not yet been released.

“Before I’m telling anybody to change their structure, we really need that guidance,” he says. “I worry about the law of unintended consequences, where we think the rule is going to work one way, and then something else kicks in and negates the benefit.”

Farmers were expecting clarity by the end of 2025. That hasn’t happened yet.

“We’re already almost to March,” Neiffer says. “But we should have it any day now.”

When it arrives, Neiffer believes it could prompt some of the most significant farm business decisions producers have faced in years , driven not just by markets, but by policy.

44 Million Acres: The New Frontier of Farm Consolidation and Growth

Tue, 10 Feb 2026 17:46:42 GMT

At the 2026 Top Producer Summit , Farm Journal Intelligence unveiled new farmland insights derived from predictive modeling and deep-data analysis. The research focused on the shifting landscape of land acquisition, identifying which operations are at risk of consolidation, who is positioned for growth and where the most significant opportunities lie.

Here are the six primary findings for farm businesses:

1. Scale Does Not Immune Operations from Consolidation.

(Farm Journal)

While smaller operations face the highest risk — with 58% of small farms “at risk” for sale or acquisition before 2030 — size is not a complete safeguard. Research shows the risk of consolidation or ownership transfer never drops below 27%, even for the largest operations. Furthermore, crop diversity made minimal impact on these odds; the likelihood of transition remains constant whether a farm produces one crop or more than 11.

2. Geography Trumps Diversification.

(Farm Journal)

Regional location is increasingly becoming a primary driver of financial success, often outweighing the benefits of operational diversification. As regional market divides grow, farmers and ranchers are finding that local market conditions and individual circumstances dictate their trajectory more. State-level or even county-level effects are more indicative of their situation than national trends.

3. The 44-Million-Acre Transition.

(Farm Journal)

Nearly 15% of American cropland is projected to change hands within the next three years, driven by generational transfers, continued consolidation and economic pressures. Farm Journal data identifies the Midwest as the epicenter of this shift, with roughly 12 million acres likely to transition. Nationwide, that total reaches a staggering 44 million acres.

4. Mapping the “Sweet Spot” for Expansion.

(Farm Journal)

By plotting cost per cropland acre against the volume of land likely to transition, clear opportunities for expansion emerge. For producers looking to grow their footprint, the most viable opportunities are currently concentrated in Kansas, Texas, North Dakota, Missouri, and Oklahoma, according to this research.

5. Integrity Is the Top Currency in Rental Markets.

(Farm Journal)

When more than 400 landowners were surveyed about tenant selection, integrity ranked as the most critical factor. Interestingly, age was reported as the least important factor. For producers looking to secure rented ground, a reputation for character and experience outweighs both seniority and youth.

6. The “Willingness” Factor in Technology.

(Farm Journal)

Producers most inclined to expand share a common trait: a higher comfort level and rate of adoption with technology. Crucially, this is not necessarily tied to technical skill or existing expertise, but rather to mindset and action. The most growth-oriented producers are defined by their willingness to try new technologies rather than their current mastery of them.

Download the Full Report

Preserving the Future: How Tennessee is Protecting Farmland While Driving Development

Tue, 10 Feb 2026 19:06:29 GMT

How is Tennessee, one of the fastest-growing states in the country, balancing economic development while still protecting farmland? Gov. Bill Lee says it’s one of the state’s greatest challenges, but he believes there is a way to do both.

Last year, Lee signed the Tennessee Farmland Preservation Act into law, tasking the Tennessee Department of Agriculture with developing a grant program to incentivize farmland owners to voluntarily enroll their land in a permanent conservation easement.

“We lose 9 acres an hour to development,” Lee said at the 2026 Top Producer Summit . “We recognize that agriculture is our No. 1 driver of our economy, so we have to preserve farmland. This act will incentivize farm property, and agriculture property in particular, to be put in land trusts so it can never be developed. This effort has been widely accepted by farmers and is beginning to take effect.”

Where is the Push for Economic Development in Tennessee?

Although economic development is taking place in many different forms, the state of Tennessee is seeing a big push for data centers. For some farmers, this could be the revenue generator they’ve been waiting on, but for others, it’s a contentious issue.

“If we are going to have a data center, it has to work for all of us,” Lee says. “Most important is that the impact on the grid for power is one that our state can effectively manage.”

He believes the data centers and the companies behind them should be partners with the state and with regulatory bodies.

“They should come in and say, ‘If we’re going to come here, this is what we will deliver to the state,’” Lee says. “Besides just the investment in dollars and what they will take from the grid, how will they deliver to the state?”

AI, a major data center and supercomputing facility in Memphis, is an example of a good partnership, he says.

“They are producing their own power and contributing to the grid. It’s a great partnership and model for things that we should be looking for in the future,” Lee adds.

How is Tennessee Helping Farmers?

Tennessee crop farmers are feeling pain right now like their peers across the country.

“It’s a tough environment for crop farmers,” Lee says. “We’ve seen the staggering losses some of our producers have experienced. But they’re very resilient people. They know that a few years ago, crop prices were good. Right now, they’re really bad. A lot of patience is required in farming, and they know that.”

Stability and predictability are nearly impossible to have in agriculture, he says. But he’s working to help provide stability and predictability from a federal standpoint through ag policy efforts.

“I think that’s what farmers look for more than anything,” Lee says. “They don’t want a rescue or an immediate solution to the problem they have. I think farmers want some indication of what stability looks like and what predictability looks like and what they can expect in the future.”

From a livestock standpoint, Tennessee has been investing heavily in the development of more local processing options.

“We do believe that locally sourced products are helpful to our own ag community,” he says. “To the degree that we can facilitate that in this state, we ought to do it. We’ve broadly expanded our ability to process beef in this state. We’re not nearly where we need to be, but we’re headed in the right direction.”

Creating a Pipeline for Agriculture

Lee is passionate about thinking about the future and creating pathways for skilled trades, especially in the agriculture industry. His experience running a company in the skilled trades business — plumbers, pipefitters, electricians and welders — has helped him see the need firsthand.

“One of the most important things we can do is recognize that kids’ giftings are really different,” Lee says.

Lee’s passion to better meet the demand for skilled labor came to fruition through the Governor’s Investment in Vocational Education (GIVE) Act.

“It created, initially, a $1-million program in high schools for vocational, technical and agricultural education programs,” he says. “It led to $500 million in middle school career and technical education programs, and ultimately $1 billion in our colleges of technology that deliver ag education, technical education and vocational education. We have removed the waitlist for our colleges of technology. We’re delivering 10,000 more workers a year who are skilled tradesmen.”

He believes it’s one of the reasons Tennessee has so many global companies making the decision to come to the state.

“We have a lot of activity here economically because the state with the workers is going to win every time,” Lee says. “We started seven years ago by creating a workforce that was much more diverse than what it had been previously, and that includes agricultural education.”

As a cattle producer and proud Tennessean, Lee says he’s most proud of how he’s helped support the state’s future in agriculture by investing in youth and the technologies that will be the future.

“It will be fun for me to look back years from now and say, ‘I’m really glad we did that. Ag was No. 1 in Tennessee when I was there, and ag is still No. 1 in Tennessee now that I’ve been gone,’” he says. “That’s what I hope for.”

Atlanta Fed Chair Bostic Recognizes Sectors of Agriculture Are in Crisis

Tue, 10 Feb 2026 00:20:02 GMT

Is an economic crisis brewing in farm country? That’s the question Raphael Bostic, outgoing president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, is watching as balance sheets carry over operating expenses into the 2026 season.

“There’s a lot of distress in agricultural marketplaces and in a lot of our agricultural enterprises,” Bostic says. “I do think there’s a significant crisis here.”

During a fireside chat at the 2026 Top Producer Summit , he recognized the challenges facing farmers in today’s financial environment.

“I get to talk to a lot of smaller family farms and I worry about them, especially because the big operations, they are so large scale, it gives you a diversity of possible strategies,” Bostic explains. “You can tap into different types of credit that can allow you to weather volatility a bit more readily, and we don’t see that for a lot of the smaller folks.”

To help, USDA is set to release $12 billion in “ Farmers Bridge Assistance ” payments toward the end of the month.

“This is a short-run patch on something that could be a long-run problem,” Bostic says.

Rising Expenses and the Growing Debt Burden

USDA is expecting net farm income to be $153.4 billion, which is down $4.1 billion from 2025. Economists say this year’s latest outlook continues to reflect declining receipts and an ongoing reliance on help from the government, which is expected to increase by 45% in 2026 alone.

“Total production expenses are forecast to increase almost $5 billion or 1%,” says USDA economist Carrie Litkowski. “On the farm sector balance sheet, assets, debt and equity are all forecast to increase.”

The latest Purdue University - CME Group Ag Economy Barometer in January found 21% of farmers surveyed expect their operating loan to increase over a year ago. Of those, a third say it’s because they’re carrying over unpaid operating debt from the prior year. In 2023 that number was only 5%.

“We know that input prices for a host of products are up,” Bostic says. “We know that competition at a global level is up. We know that the tariffs have put tremendous pressure on the competitiveness of American products overseas because of those dynamics, and we also know many commodity prices haven’t changed to offset these things. These are all incredibly challenging dynamics to wrestle with, and how we move forward is really an open question.”

Fed Policy: Why Patience is Required for Rate Cuts

The Fed’s primary mandate of stable prices and maximum employment provides an environment with predictable growth, giving people the opportunity to invest for the long haul without having to worry about where the economy will be in five to 10 years.

“First we have to diagnose the problem,” Bostic says. “Is this an issue with labor availability, an issue in new technology or shifting climate patterns, etc., and then we need to think about what strategies will work for all of these new things.”

That mandate requires patience in seeing how current monetary policy impacts the market. Bostic notes inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%, but economic growth has been and will continue to be robust. One thing he’s not advocating for is a continuation of interest rate cuts.

“The government shutdown actually prevented a lot of data from being produced, so it is actually going to make the numbers a bit choppier in the next several months,” Bostic explains. “The usual signals we would get from those [reports] are actually going to be weaker than they would be otherwise. For me, that’s another reason why I think we want to be cautious. We want to be patient, and I think that’ll be prudent.”

Patience ahead of additional rate cuts would allow the Federal Reserve to see how tax cuts and deregulation stimulate growth into 2026 before cutting rates, which could spur inflation even further above the Fed’s target.

At the 2026 Top Producer Summit, Raphael Bostic, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, joins Bill Watts, Pro Farmer editor, to share insights into the economic forces shaping monetary policy and what that could mean for agriculture.

(Farm Journal )

The ag economy is seeing similar challenges to the economy as a whole. Bostic remarks while the top end of the economy is doing remarkably well, there is a growing number of U.S. consumers who are living paycheck to paycheck, evidenced by the increased rhetoric around a K-shaped economy. That has made itself evident in the ag economy by higher consolidation, with big farms getting bigger and smaller farms going out of business.

“This economy has continued to perform well at an aggregate level; consumers have continued to be resilient, and that’s a good thing,” Bostic says. “My outlook is that the resilience we’ve seen for much of 2025 will continue into 2026 and might even get a bit stronger, so we might actually see some of the tax benefits, some of the deregulation, those things could actually spur the economy to do even more than what it did last year.”

Consolidation and the Transformative Potential of AI

The latest red flag, a sluggish labor market has Bostic waiting on data and wondering if technology or AI are having an outsized role in the current new-hire economy.

“When you think about AI, for example, and those technologies, businesses are experimenting with ways to have AI introduced into their production processes to allow productivity that doesn’t require people,” Bostic admits. “You may have heard reports about a lot of entry-level hiring has happened at a much lower pace than it has in previous years. A lot of that is because the promise of AI has folks thinking, well, maybe I don’t need to do those hires, and I can get that same amount of productivity. That’s a structural change.”

From a farming perspective, those opportunities are also presenting themselves. Given the current challenges in agriculture, Bostic says it might be time to look at new ways to build toward the future.

“To the extent that work can be done, that is, generative, without necessarily needing a person to be there all the time, that’s potentially transformative,” Bostic says. “I know the day is long, seasons are hard, and if you can use technology to take two hours out of it that gives you space to do other things. The opportunity there is what do you do with that extra space?”

Why Did McDonald’s USA Invest $200 Million in Regenerative Agriculture?

Tue, 10 Feb 2026 19:03:00 GMT

In September, McDonald’s USA unveiled its largest investment in regenerative agriculture to date with the launch of the Grassland Resilience and Conservation Initiative . This public-private partnership with the National Fish and Wildlife Foundation (NFWF), USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) and key McDonald’s U.S. suppliers aims to scale regenerative grazing and conservation efforts across the U.S.

This initiative will invest more than $200 million over the next seven years to help promote and accelerate regenerative grazing practices, habitat restoration, water and wildlife conservation on cattle ranches spanning 4 million acres in up to 38 states.

“We know the natural resources that are required for the food system to thrive are under a lot of pressure, and so our desire to make our supply chain more resilient is really a business decision,” explains Audrey Leduc, McDonald’s U.S. sustainability director.

During the 2026 Top Producer Conference, Leduc shared McDonald’s has 13,000 U.S. restaurants that annually serve 90% of Americans. In 2024, McDonald’s bought 671 million pounds of beef in the U.S.

(McDonalds)

What Are the Core Objectives?

“There’s really two things that you need to think about when you’re thinking about a resilient supply chain,” Leduc says. “The first one is, you need to understand where are your vulnerabilities, and second, you need to understand where you’re having the most impact.”

The initiative is designed to bolster U.S. supply chain resilience while providing ranchers with the tools needed to:

Improve grazing management. Enhancing land productivity and soil health
Restore ecosystems. Protecting grasslands and wildlife habitats
Conserve water. Implementing practices that safeguard water resources
Upgrade infrastructure. Providing financial support for ranch improvements

Promoting and accelerating these practices benefits both the environment and ranchers and shows how large brands can help drive meaningful change in the food system.

“The benefits of grassland conservation are far-reaching,” says Jeff Trandahl, NFWF executive director and CEO. “When cattle are managed to optimize multiple ecological and economic values, the land holds more water, grows better grass and supports more wildlife. Conservation practices voluntarily adopted by ranchers can improve the productivity of grasslands, increase ranching profitability and strengthen the vitality of rural communities across the United States.”

What Are the Economic Incentives for Ranchers?

“We understand that the financial burden to move towards regenerative agriculture is often carried by the producer,” Leduc says. “And so how does big companies like McDonald’s get involved? Well, it’s with things like the grassland initiative.”

The initiative will help boost its U.S. supply chain resilience, including by providing participating ranchers economic returns such as incentive payments.

Participating ranchers will receive:

Incentive payments. Direct economic returns for adopting sustainable practices
Technical assistance. Access to resources for voluntary conservation efforts
Performance monitoring. Independent soil health quantification provided by Kateri and Carbon Yield

“We want to be good stewards of the land, and we’re putting money directly where our mouth is,” Leduc adds. “It’s a business decision to protect the beef supply chain, and we want to be accelerating and working alongside the producers.”

McDonald’s USA suppliers, including Cargill, Golden State Foods, Lopez Foods, OSI and The Coca-Cola Company, will provide funds to NFWF alongside McDonald’s USA.

Audrey Leduc, U.S. sustainability director for McDonald’s, shares the stage at the 2026 Top Producer Summit with Angie Denton, Drovers editorial leader, to talk about McDonald’s commitment to working with beef producers to source responsible beef and prioritize natural resource stewardship.

(Farm Journal)

What is the Timeline?

NFWF will manage and invest conservation funding to advance ranchers in their voluntary conservation efforts. NFWF is collaborating with its conservation partners across America’s grasslands to identify impactful landscape-scale projects that will generate the greatest possible benefits to both wildlife populations and the productivity of vital U.S. ranch lands.

NFWF will independently award competitive grants to organizations that will assist participating ranchers in adopting practices that advance wildlife conservation and regenerative agriculture. The first round of competitive grant-making will culminate in the announcement of awards, which is expected soon.

“As a brand that serves more than 90% of Americans every year, we recognize the responsibility we have to help safeguard our food systems for long-term vitality,” says Cesar Piña, McDonald’s senior vice president and chief supply chain officer, North America. “Through our support of this initiative, McDonald’s USA is demonstrating the power of partnership between the public and private sectors and that feeding the population and stewarding our natural resources can coexist.”

For additional information about the Grassland Resilience and Conservation Initiative, visit the NFWF website .

How Do Alternative Proteins Fit Into McDonald’s Plans?

“At McDonald’s, we are not pursuing alternative protein,” Leduc says. “That’s not our sustainability strategy. Our sustainability strategy is a resilient beef supply chain in the U.S.”

Farmers Watch As Next-Generation Biofuels Chase Market Growth In 2025

Fri, 28 Feb 2025 16:55:12 GMT

Optimism remains high that growth in the biofuels industry will continue under the new Trump administration. In late February, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin announced year-round E15 sales in eight Midwest states.

“Today’s decision underscores EPA’s commitment to consumer access to E15 while ensuring a smooth transition for fuel suppliers and refiners,” said EPA Administrator Zeldin in a press release .

In Congress, permanent E15 bills with broad bi-partisan support have been reintroduced in both chambers. A permanent E15 rule would increase ethanol demand by 5 to 7 billion gallons a year.

“The President has been, I believe, fairly unequivocal in stating his support for the importance of biofuels in the larger energy independence picture, and he also understands how important it is to our farmers and our ranchers who produce it,” said U.S. agriculture secretary Brooke Rollins during Top Producer Summit.

While the industry is watching the administration closely, green fuel mandates around the globe and those implemented during the Biden administration helped spark a flurry of investment in the renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) markets.

Farmdoc Daily at the University of Illinois counted 23 renewable diesel plants in operation by the end of 2026 with a total capacity of 5.261 billion gallons.

“I do believe U.S. agriculture’s future is in green diesel and green fuels, including sustainable aviation fuel. That’s where our demand growth is going forward,” says Dan Basse, president and CEO of AgResource. “It takes policy and it takes someone at the helm with a budget to make sure that it happens.”

As those investments mature and as a compliment to renewable diesel, manufacturers are also looking to grow the SAF market. In 2021, the Biden Administration set a goal of 3 billion gallons of SAF by the year 2030. Farmdoc Daily estimates that in 2025, there will be six plants online with a capacity to produce 834 million gallons.

(U.S. Energy Information Administration)

“Just in the U.S. alone, there’s about 30 billion gallons of conventional jet fuel used every year,” says Jeff Davidman, the vice president of state and local government affairs at Delta Airlines. “The U.S. airline industry has made a commitment as an industry to replace 10% of their conventional jet fuel with SAF by 2030. That’s 3 billion gallons. In 2022, there were 25 million gallons made.”

This means the industry can scale quickly to meet those targets as long as the demand for these fuels continues. Delta isn’t alone - other airlines like Southwest touted SAF usage in 2024. The airline is reportedly cutting staff, and looking to pull back on sustainable targets.

However, investments in these “green” fuels continue to be announced. On Feb. 3, 2025, Gevo, Inc. announced the acquisition of Red Tail Energy’s ethanol production plant in Richardton, N.D., where it will focus on SAF.

“We’re primarily focused on sustainable aviation fuel and commercializing essentially a brand new industry,” says Kent Hartwig, director of state government affairs at Gevo. “We’ve been able to utilize ag products for renewable fuels for four decades now. As we see changes in fuel usage, that’s going to mean potential changes in ethanol production. How do we continue to sustain this industry? It’s through new markets. Having a new outlet, like sustainable aviation fuel, is an important market driver to keep farm profitability high.”

Even as a new administration takes over in Washington, Hartwig remains bullish despite the vocal calls to increase domestic oil production.

“The president has been crystal clear on his administration’s desire to see domestic energy dominance,” Hartwig says. “We’ve seen multiple executive orders that have laid out his plan for how we continue to be dominant in that area and in both he specifically calls out biofuels. So, while ‘drill, baby, drill’ is what the President has been saying, I also think he means ‘grow, baby, grow’.”

Ag secretary Rollins echoed those same sentiments during a fireside chat at Top Producer Summit in February.

“Remember during his first primary election, President Trump was the first major candidate to support biofuels, and I think that carried him through Iowa in many ways,” Rollins says. “He hasn’t forgotten that.”

“I think what you see in the policy space is the need to have these fuels available in the future,” says Cory-Ann Wind, director of state regulatory affairs for Clean Fuels Alliance America .

Her organization focuses on advancing biodiesel, renewable diesel and SAF policies.

“I think as long as the regulations or the policies evolve, you’re going to see more and more innovation in this industry,” Wind says.

Wind says regardless of what happens in Washington, state mandates and private industry goals are helping keep the momentum going.

“We’re looking at any mode of transportation that uses diesel,” Wind says. “We’re talking about trucks, ag equipment, construction equipment, long-haul semis and even marine.”

As global demand for these new-era biofuels continues to rise, it’s building a domestic market with the potential to improve prices on the farm.

“In 1979, the U.S. accounted for 62% of world agricultural trade and today that number’s down to 12%,” Basse says. “We now need to find another demand driver for U.S. agriculture.”

In 2024, the U.S. exported a record 1.9 million gallons of ethanol around the globe. CoBank put out a report that says those exports are the key to that industry’s growth. It says exports could top 2 billion gallons in 2025 and 2026.

“This is a real opportunity for the Midwest and Midwest farmer to lead in this space,” Davidman says. “This isn’t just U.S. or Delta demand. This is global demand.”

What to Expect During USDA's Ag Outlook Forum This Week

Wed, 26 Feb 2025 15:41:26 GMT

USDA’s 101st Annual Agricultural Outlook Forum will be held Feb. 27-28 near Washington, DC, with the theme of “Meeting Tomorrow’s Challenges, Today.” The look at corn and soybean acreage under current conditions will be among the key focal points during the event, but it will also be key to see how USDA paints an export outlook with so much uncertainty surrounding tariffs and trade.

Farm Journal Washington correspondent Jim Wiesemeyer says USDA produced its budget-related figures last fall that were part of the agricultural projections publication that was released ahead of the conference.

“It is not clear how much the figures released next week will change relative to the initial budget-related outlooks,” Wiesemeyer says.

We interviewed Seth Meyer, chief economist with USDA, during the Top Producer Summit last week. He provided a preview for the Ag Outlook Forum, saying he will talk about farm income margins for crops and livestock, which are two very different stories. Meyer says one of the challenging parts is trying to forecast the trade picture, even with the uncertainty around tariffs. USDA will also look at the impact of foreign animal diseases on the livestock sector during the Ag Outlook Forum this week.

What’s Meyer’s overall outlook on 2025? It’s a tad more positive than 2024.

“This is a strange statement to appear bullish, but maybe we’ve hit the bottom. Six months ago, things were getting pretty bad, pretty fast. Hopefully we’ve hit a bottom on some of this and seen a little bit of rebound and maybe a little bit better on demand, especially on corn, as we see a little bit of a rebound. So, I’m kind of hopeful that maybe things aren’t going to get a bunch worse on the crop side,” Meyer says.

While he’s more optimistic, Meyer points out here are still a plethora of challenges in the ag economy, especially with tight margins on the crops side.

“For things like cotton, we’ve continued to see price erode,” Meyer says. “We started at an 80 cent forecast. We’re now down to 64.5 cents, and 80 cents wasn’t going to make you a bundle of money at the time either. So I think we go through these periods of crop prices where input prices are slower to correct. And it makes a really disruptive time as that adjustment happens, and we’re in that disruptive time.”

The Difficulty of Forecasting Trade
USDA analysts in the forecasts released later this week are not expected to make any assumptions on the impact of potential tariffs on U.S. agricultural commodities. For the WASDE report, the analysts use the policy actions that are in effect at the time and their outlooks presented next week should follow that track.

“We will produce an outlook which is policy in place,” Meyer says. “So, while there’s been a lot of talk about tariffs, reciprocal tariffs, tariffs on Canada and tariffs on Mexico, right now, we don’t have anything in place. So we’ll do an outlook absent that.”

Meyer says the team at USDA is in the middle of building tools to show the possible impacts of tariffs on trade.

“We’re making sure we have the tools in place to understand what the impact on agriculture is from such actions. So we are prepared internally to do the calculations necessary to support the secretary of agriculture,” Meyer said.

2025 Acreage in Focus
This is USDA’s first glimpse at acreage. Even though it’s not the survey-based estimate, which will be released at the end of March, it’s still the market’s first 2025 acreage data to digest. While Meyer couldn’t reveal any early acreage projections, he acknowledged the trend for more corn acres this year, but says soybeans are also trying to compete for acres.

Meyer wasn’t able to give his acreage estimates, but Dan Basse, founder and president of AgResource Company, says if USDA is aggressive and pencils a 94 million acre number on corn, that could be bearish to the market.

“We’re at 93 million acres at AgResource Company, and I just got back from a conference in Jonesboro in the Delta, and I was just shocked how many Delta farmers want to plant corn and abandon cotton and rice,” Basse told U.S. Farm Report. “We will do a survey again in the middle of March, but our surveys are pointing upward, and I wouldn’t be surprised by 94 million plus at some point.”

Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist for StoneX Group says his current estimates aren’t quite to 94 million, but close.

“Right now we’re at 93.5 million acres, which is up about 3 million from last year,” Suderman said during the live taping of U.S. Farm Report during the Top Producer Summit. “But I have an alternate scenario I’m using right now, which is 95.5 million acres, which would be 5 million acres, essentially, higher than last year. We’re going to do another survey and collect more data right around March 1 when USDA does, because we’re just hearing enough of the feedback from the seed industry about how big their corn seed sales are versus their soybean seed sales. And so if there’s a bias to it, it’s to the upside right now.”

All Ag Outlook Forum sessions will be streamed on a virtual platform this week.

When is USDA Going to Release the Nearly $10 Billion of American Relief Act Payments for Farmers?

Mon, 24 Feb 2025 18:29:09 GMT

It’s been just over two months since Congress passed the American Relief Act , which contains $9.8 billion in market relief payments. Congress gave USDA 90 days to issue the payments, and with less than 30 days left before the deadline, farmers are asking one question: when will those payments be released?

That’s exactly what AgriTalk’s Chip Flory asked U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins in an exclusive interview during Top Producer Summit last week. Rollins told Flory it’s her second top priority, right after addressing the avian flu outbreak.

“It’s got to move quickly. And now that I’m there, other than avian flu, that’s probably when I walk out of here, I’ll jump on the phone and we’ll start figuring out again why that isn’t moving more quickly and what we need to do,” Rollins told Flory. “But as you can imagine, I just got confirmed a couple of days ago. We have eight undersecretaries at USDA, and one that manages this portfolio. He hasn’t even had his hearing yet. So, we’re doing a little bit of band-aiding and duct-taping and bubble-gumming this thing together. But please know, and all of your listeners and those watching on TV should know, that this is of the highest priority. We have the best team in place, and we are going to move as quickly as humanly possible.”

Possible Payments to Producers
The economic aid for farmers was passed by Congress as part of the continuing resolution in December 2024, keeping the government funded through March 14, 2025. The “Economic Loss Assistance Program” earmarked $10 billion in direct payments for farmers.

USDA will make the final calculations, meaning the following, current calculations will likely change. But based off Farm CPA Paul Neiffer ‘s early estimates, per-acre producer payments will be the following:

Corn: $43.80
Soybeans: $30.61
Wheat: $31.80
Cotton: $84.70
Rice: $71.37

While USDA will determine the finalized per acre payments, these are the estimated American Relief Act payments for farmers.

(Lindsey Pound )

According to analysis by the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI), the top 10 states based on estimated total payments for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, sorghum, rice, barely, oats and peanuts are:

Texas: $963 million, primarily because of its status as the largest cotton producer
Iowa: $846 million, with strong support for corn and soybean farmers
Illinois: $790 million
Kansas: $787 million
Nebraska: $625 million
Minnesota: $616 million
North Dakota: $597 million
South Dakota: $497 million
Indiana: $400 million
Missouri: $391 million

Approximately $9.7 billion will be paid out for the major nine crops.

(FAPRI/RaFF)

Corn, soybeans and wheat are expected to make up 80% of the total estimated payments, or about $7.9 billion. That number increases to 98%, or about $9.7 billion, when including cotton, rice, sorghum, barley, oats and peanuts.

Earlier in February, USDA issued its first look at 2025 net farm income, showing a surge in net farm income for this year. That’s not because of a dramatic change in the markets. The surge is from an expected staggering 345% increase in government payments — from $9.3 billion in 2024 to $42.4 billion in 2025. That not only includes the nearly $10 billion from the American Relief Act, but the also $21 billion in disaster aid, which USDA still needs to disperse.

What’s at Stake for Farmers?
Ben Brown, an agricultural economist with the University of Missouri, says some producers are banking on those payments, even making business decisions based on the projected payment calculations released so far.

“It’s been interesting to go around and talk to producers about it. I think, broadly, there are questions about when it’s coming, making sure that it is coming. People have made decisions, business decisions, both at the farm gate level and then at the agribusiness sector, depending on these payments. So, if they had any challenges in implementing those or if they were strongly delayed, I think we would see some ripple effects.”

Brown also points out in conversations he’s having with farmers and ag lenders across the country, the reactions are mixed about the payments and the impact they could have on costs in 2025.

“The other challenge is that you look at the $40-plus per acre on corn and, the common phrase I’m hearing from producers is that there’s six different people out there asking for $10. And you’re sitting there saying, ‘well, that’s $60,’ and I’m really getting $43 or $42 an acre for my corn production. So, how does that compute? I think, as we sit here today, this might increase input prices or keep them a little higher than where we maybe would have anticipated them. That’s one of the challenges. But certainly, there’s a lot to learn as this gets implemented across the countryside.”

Anticipated Payments Fuel Improved Net Farm Income Picture
In an exclusive interview with USDA Chief Economist Seth Meyer, we asked Meyer to explain USDA’s updated net farm income forecast, which some argue paints the ag economy more positively than it actually is.

“We use the policy in place, and we look at what the administration has said and their desire to get these payments out,” says Meyer. “So, while we don’t know exactly what the payments will look like, if you dig into some of the geographic maps within what we produce, you will see we are having to make assumptions about where all those dollars will go. But we’ve made our best guess and we’ve asserted that they’re determined to get these dollars out the door. And so we put them into the farm income number.”

Meyer says as he talks to farmers across the country, he understands farmers don’t want to get their income from government payments; they prefer to get it from the markets. But he also points out the crops net farm income scenario and the picture for livestock are drastically different, but there are some exceptions.

“When you look at the net farm income numbers, and you take those government payments away, and you say, ‘What’s coming from the market?’ And then you take livestock and you separate out crops ... with crops today, we have increased competition around the world. We’ve got tighter margins, input prices that are sticky, challenges in exports because we sell bulk commodities and there’s where we’re facing competition. On the livestock side, you say, ‘Well, you know, the livestock side must be doing well.’ But at the same time, we’re short on dairy heifers to expand. We continue to be in a contraction phase of the cattle cycle. And yes, we’ve got record-high feeder and fed cattle prices, but we haven’t turned yet. Folks are not making the decision yet that this is something that they want to invest in in the long run.”

Meyer also points out the egg side of the equation is presenting another layer of challenges. He says if a producer hasn’t been hit by avian flu, they are making money. But for the producers who’s had their flocks infected by HPAI, that’s creating a financial strain.

“So, on the crops side, we are seeing narrow margins,” says Meyer. “The livestock side is better, but some constraints are continuing to expand there.”

Ag Economists Weigh In On Impact of Projected Payments
The January Monthly Monitor asked economists if those payments are needed in agriculture. Sixty-four percent said yes, and 36% said no.

In the survey, of the economists who said the payments are needed, some of the reasons why include:

Land values continue to climb
Input costs will remain elevated, and inefficient farmers that over-leveraged themselves the past couple years will remain in business
Delays producers cutting fixed costs, especially cash rents

But not all economists agree the payments are needed, warning of some unintended consequences, including prolonging what some economists argue are adjustments needed in the industry. In the survey, economists said:

“I think there could be some pushback when the longer-term farm bill comes up for authorization with budget hawks pointing to the $10 billion as a down payment of sorts.”
“This will slow some adjustments that arguably are needed. For example, land rents are generally higher than can be justified by current market returns. Getting approval for another round of payments in 2025 is far from certain, so unless markets improve considerably, there could be a renewed financial squeeze in 2026.”

Ahead of Congress passing the Continuing Resolution (CR) in late December, AgWeb asked farmers in a poll whether Congress should pass economic aid for farmers before year-end, as well as if Congress should raise reference prices in a farm bill extension. The poll garnered more than 2,500 responses:

71% of respondents said Congress should approve emergency economic aid
29% responded no
81% of farmers said Congress should raise reference prices when extending the 2018 farm bill.
19% said no.

Your Next Read:
30 Minutes With Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins In Her First Week On the Job

Kansas Farmer Chase Larson's Ability to Overcome Adversity, and Still Grow, Will Inspire You

Fri, 21 Feb 2025 19:33:50 GMT

A pilot by training and a farmer by trade, Chase Larson runs his Kansas operation more like a Fortune 500 company than he does a farm.

“Being able to get outside of what you’re doing every day and hearing other people’s experience is crucial to making a successful company,” says Chase Larson, CEO of Bestifor Farms , which is based in Belleville, Kansas.

The Decision to Make Chase CEO
From regular board meetings to his involvement in peer groups, Chase took over as CEO just over a year ago.

Chase Larson sits in the company’s board room.

(Tyne Morgan, Farm Journal)

“He was doing a lot of the responsibilities up to that point, as far as negotiations, cropping decisions, and relationships - everything it takes to run a farm. He earned that respect and my feeling the time was right,” says Thayne Larson, Chase’s dad who also now serves as Bestifor board president.

Chase recalls the point his dad decided it was time to fully transition, “He walked in, and actually my mom was there too, and said, ‘You are CEO of all of Bestifor.”

An aerial view of harvest for Bestifor Farms.

(Chase Larson)

That moment was a surprise in a way, but Chase has always been an integral part of the operation, even buying and brokering loads of hay in college.

“That’s how I really got into it was through logistics and shipping and negotiating when we got into the trucking business,” Larson says.

Bestifor Farms is one of six companies for this sixth-generation farm family.

(Matt Mormann, Farm Journal )

Today, Bestifor Hay Company and Bestifor Farms are just two of the six businesses that make up the Bestifor family of companies.

“We hired better and better people and provided benefits. We worked off of that model, and we’re still working off that model today. But not only the farm and the hay company, but all the additional companies that we have surrounded that support it,” Thayne says.

Bestifor family of brands includes six companies today.

(Matt Mormann, Farm Journal)

Pursuit to Enter Into Pet Food
With 40 employees, 30 of which are full time, each of the Bestifor companies inject values into the overall Bestifor brand, and one of the businesses that’s sprouted within the last decade is a company called Grandpa’s Best.

“We realized we had some really good talent around us being in the hay business for a long time. We said, ‘How hard can it be to start a pet food company?’ And turns out, it’s really hard,” Chase says.

Grandpa’s Best is a small family company committed to providing premium quality Timothy Hay, Orchard Grass Hay, Alfalfa Hay, and native Kansas Prairie Hay to small herbivores and exotic animals.

(Matt Mormann, Farm Journal)

The wild idea to start a pet food company didn’t come from Chase or Thayne. The idea came from Chase’s late wife Celine.

“She came out here and she just got a curious mind,” Thayne says. “She walked the pastures and she was a K-State grad who grew up in California. She said, ‘I wonder what else can eat this grass besides cattle. So, she got seven or eight or 10 different species of grasses, and she sent samples to K-State for research asking what else will eat this? And it came back with rabbits and gerbils.”

They hired a firm to help explain the pet food business, uncovering a $3 billion pet food market worldwide.

“And we said, ‘Well, sure, there’s a piece of that we can find,’” Thayne says.

And they did - a business that’s doubled in sales every year since 2019.

“Chase and Celine, they brought a different side to the operation,” Thayne says. “They showed us there’s more to this than just local and quality for what we’re trying to accomplish as a family. And they have just taken it to another level and put it on steroids. It’s taken off in a whole different direction, and we’re excited about it.”

Constantly uncovering new opportunities, Chase’s late wife Celine was the one who came up with the idea for Grandpa’s Best.

(Chase Larson )

The Battle Against Cancer
Celine Larson was a light on the farm, in their family and in their community.

“She was someone who was an entrepreneurial spirit,” Larson says. “She enjoyed agriculture.”

In 2017, Celine was diagnosed with cancer. Their four kids were 2, 4, 6 and 8 at the time, and Chase’s focus shifted from farming, to fighting for Celine’s life with treatments in Texas.

“I think the longest stint was like 36 days that we never came back,” Chase says. “My mom took the girls to school every day, got them ready, fed them and took over that role while we were down there fighting cancer.”

Chase, along with his late wife Celine, have four daughters.

(Chase Larson )

On Dec. 9, 2019, a little over two years since she was first diagnosed with Stage 4 melanoma, Celine Larson passed away at the age of 35.

“When she passed away, it changed our perspective on what’s important in life,” Chase says. “You rethink what you want to do, what you don’t want to do. But the family support on both sides was unbelievable. And most people think, ‘How do you get through things like that?’ But it these negatives are not negatives.”

Thayne adds, “He hasn’t talked about his faith, but it’s rock solid. He’s just such an inspiration and so dedicated. And that’s part of the balance of his life.”

Water Management Software Built By Farmers
Constantly striving for balance, Chase is also always uncovering new ways to grow. One example is through is latest endeavor, which is an app for real-time water management called VandWater, a company that was built by farmers for farmers.

“We figured out how to write it, got the right coders, hired them and went from concept to that in three months,” Chase says.

Chase Larson created VandWater two years ago, which is software for anyone who manages water. The goal is to make comprehensive water management more simple through software.

(VandWater )

Today, VandWater is a fully web-based app, available on any iPhone or Android. It has thousands of wells on the system across three states.

The new ventures are allowing the operation to grow in new ways, all while not losing sight of their roots, which is the farm. Bestifor Farms has managed to double in size over the last 16 years - growing to 12,000 acres today.

Sixth Generation Farm With Sights Set on the Future
And Chase says this sixth-generation farm isn’t finished growing yet.

“We’re very entrepreneurial driven,” Chase says. “We’re not afraid to fail, not to figure out a mistake here or there. You’re not going to grow without constant change and being outside of your borders.”

Chase’s constant hunger to find value, while not losing sight of the fact quality is their legacy here, makes Chase Larson a finalist for 2025 Top Producer of the Year.

Your Next Reads:

2025 Top Producer of the Year Marc Arnusch Looks for Success Beyond Commodity Farming

How Iowa Farmer Mark Hanna is Investing in Innovation and Giving Ag Startups a Fighting Chance

Dalton Dilldine: Next-Generation Producer Follows in His Father’s Footsteps

Texas Rancher Kimberly Ratcliff Trades the Big Apple for Community Beef Business

Ag Meterologists Worry More Drought Lies Ahead For Spring

Fri, 21 Feb 2025 16:53:29 GMT

As Eric Snodgrass looks six weeks out to the end of March, he doesn’t like the weather pattern he sees shaping up for spring planting season – more dry conditions.

Varying levels of mild to moderate drought have dogged much of the upper Midwest, West and Southwest since last fall, and the outlook is for more of the same, according to Snodgrass, a leading U.S. meteorologist.

Check out the soil moisture deficit currently in the upper Midwest and West. At the opposite extreme, a broad band of soil moisture shows up in blue across much of the Ohio Valley region.

(Eric Snodgrass)

“I’m concerned about the way the central United States and the western Corn Belt, in particular, are going to be dealing with the risk of drought building into spring,” Snodgrass told farmers attending the Top Producer Summit in Kansas City earlier this week.

History shows that drought tends to beget drought. In six of the past 10 years with a really dry fall, Snodgrass says the spring to follow was also dry.

The weekly U.S. Drought Monitor echoes his observations. The Monitor released Thursday (Feb. 20) shows drought is impacting 45% of corn production acres, 36% of soybean production acres, 40% of spring wheat and 20% of winter wheat acres, respectively.In addition – of particular concern to beef and dairy producers – 49% of the U.S. alfalfa hay production acres are also experiencing drought.

Arctic Air Is Contributing To Drought Conditions
Snodgrass spells out what usually happens in late winter to create the moisture farmers need at planting time in the Corn Belt.

As the jet stream moves across the Pacific Ocean, it typically splits and sweeps into the West Coast from two positions – one from the northern North Pacific Ocean and the other from the southern North Pacific Ocean, close to Hawaii. The two portions of the jet stream usually then scream across U.S. western mountain ranges, picking up moisture they then deposit in portions of the Corn Belt before moving on to the East Coast and exiting the U.S. in Maine.

This year, the portion of the jet stream that normally comes from Hawaii has veered from its usual course and possibly even stalled. One indicator of that happening, Snodgrass says, is a drop off in ocean temperatures in the Baja of California and the Gulf of Alaska. The result is dry, arctic air has been moving into portions of the U.S.

In years when the Gulf of Alaska is in a warming trend, U.S. crop yields tend to be higher. The opposite is true when the Gulf cools.

(Eric Snodgrass)

For some parts of the U.S. the cold, arctic air has brought snow along with it. But the snow holds little moisture that would help alleviate the frozen dry soils. “We have some deep snow in areas right now, but it’s only got maybe two-tenths of an inch of liquid in it,” Snodgrass explains.

That’s bad news for farmers who need a full profile of soil moisture going into spring and don’t have one.

“If I’m in Iowa, Minnesota, northern Illinois, the Dakotas, even parts of Nebraska and Missouri, I’m going, holy smokes, that arctic air has prevented any sort of meaningful precipitation coming back at this point of the year,” he says.
Similar concerns were voiced by Drew Lerner, founder and president of World Weather, Inc., during the Top Producer Summit.

“If we continue bringing these cold shots of air through North America, we will have a below-normal precipitation bias [for the western Corn Belt] as we go forward through spring planting season,” Lerner explained during the taping of the U.S. Farm Report.

This map shows what the precipitation could look like in March. But remember, Mother Nature is unpredictable. It’s certainly feasible she could change course and bring moisture to the states west and southwest of the Mississippi River.

(Eric Snodgrass)

That’s not the meteorologists’ expectation for the eastern Corn Belt and portions of the Southeast. Lerner and Snodgrass agree those areas are likely to have plenty of moisture going into spring planting.

More Weather Trouble Brewing For Summer
If the current cold conditions continue through March, which Lerner and Snodgrass anticipate will be the case, what will likely occur is a knee-jerk reaction in the atmosphere: a warming trend will start in late March or early April and build through late spring and into early summer.

“If we warm up quickly in the spring, which is a high possibility, we could end up falling behind the eight ball a little bit more on soil moisture,” Lerner says.

While some meteorologists point to this year’s La Niña as a cause of the continued move to dryer conditions, Snodgrass and Lerner say that’s not the case.

“La Niña will be gone by the time we get into mid-March,” Lerner predicts. “This La Niña hasn’t lasted long enough to really have a big footprint in the atmosphere. As we get into April, it’ll be pretty much a non-event.”

Keep An Eye On The Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Lerner and Snodgrass believe a negative phase of what scientists call the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) could be a primary contributor to ongoing drought and higher temperatures by April. The PDO is a long-term climate pattern that affects the temperature of the Pacific Ocean and can influence weather patterns across the globe.

While the PDO has not had what Lerner calls a “tremendous amount of impact” in past years in the U.S., it’s looking more influential for the 2025 growing season.

“I’m seeing some additional cooling off the West Coast of North America that may end up leading us into a greater ridge building with all the dryness that’s in the soil and that negative PDO,” Lerner says. “I’m not ready to go all the way over with [that prediction], but that’s where I’m headed.”

The Surprising Solution To Drought
If Mother Nature continues on her worrying course, Snodgrass says continued low temperatures in the Gulf of Alaska would be a signal in early summer for farmers.

“If we get into June and it’s cool there, that is telling me that the atmosphere is not moving. And if it doesn’t move, well, all of a sudden we could find ourselves in a situation in late June into July with more drought and excess heat,” Snodgrass says.

The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) is a seasonal forecasting system, showing this summer could be a dry one in portions of the West and upper Midwest and into Canada. However, summer is still months away, and Mother Nature could change course. However, being forewarned can help farmers plan ahead.

(Eric Snodgrass and NMME)

Another worrying sign he says to watch for is where the active spring weather pattern falls. If areas of Kansas and the Great Plains see an active tornado season, Snodgrass says that means the weather pattern is more favorable for rains to fall across the Corn Belt. But if tornado warnings blare across the Southeast, Snodgrass says that’s a signal drought could be a problem this summer.

There is a solution to the troubling weather patterns, he adds, one most farmers won’t welcome – a big, wet snow on the Northern Plains.

“The No. 1 thing I’m praying for right now is an April 4 blizzard. I want a foot of snow,” Snodgrass told farmers at Top Producer Summit, many of whom laughed.

Snodgrass laughed, too, and added, “You’ll hate me for about a week, and then love me through the rest of May.”

Your next read: ‘Stay Tuned, We’ll Be Right Back With Your Forecast’

EXCLUSIVE: As DOGE Works to Stop Wasteful Spending, Secretary Rollins Says Vital Farm Programs Aren't at Risk

Thu, 20 Feb 2025 22:44:32 GMT

The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has stormed Washington since President Donald Trump took office, working to uncover what it calls wasteful spending. That includes a comprehensive review of the money going out the door at USDA.

Before Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins was even confirmed, DOGE produced findings from its initial review of USDA. Those findings were something Rollins highlighted during her first address to more than 400 USDA staffers and others immediately following her confirmation.

“I welcome DOGE’s efforts at USDA because we know that its work makes us better, stronger, faster and more efficient. I will expect full access and transparency to DOGE in the days and weeks to come,” said Secretary Rollins during her address.

The American people gave us a mandate: end waste, fraud, and abuse in their government — and we are delivering.

🚨Here are just several contracts we terminated @USDA:

-Media contracts, including Politico subscriptions: $2.77 million

-Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion…
— Secretary Brooke Rollins (@SecRollins) February 15, 2025

According to Rollins, since Jan. 20, USDA has reviewed contracts, personnel, employee trainings and DEI programs. Based on that review, she announced USDA would terminated 78 contracts, which totaled more than $132 million, calling them “bold reforms.” That includes:

Media contracts, including Politico subscriptions: $2.77 million
Diversity, Equity and Inclusion Onboarding Specialist: $374,000
Diversity Dialogue Workshops: $254,000
International Development for Historically Underrepresented Communities: $298,000
Brazilian Forest and Gender Consultant: $229,000
Women and Forest Carbon Initiative Mentorship Program: $121,000

Today’s contract update:

95 cancellations with savings of ~$115M (ceiling value of ~$235M), including two USDA contracts:
- $265k for a “food and nutrition service 3 day leadership retreat in Atlanta”
- $30K for “Malaysia study tour facilitation services” pic.twitter.com/U5IMTpvPLe
— Department of Government Efficiency (@DOGE) February 21, 2025

Just a week later, DOGE posted an update saying the current update at USDA include:

95 cancellations with savings of ~$115M (ceiling value of ~$235M)
That includes two USDA contracts:
- - $265k for a “food and nutrition service 3 day leadership retreat in Atlanta”
- $30K for “Malaysia study tour facilitation services”

Live update from our @DOGE_USDA team’s meeting tonight 👇

Look what we just found (and cancelled!): $324,671 grant for “Increasing DEIA Programming for Integrated Pest Management” … you can’t make this up🤦🏻‍♀️

cc: @DOGE @elonmusk pic.twitter.com/GOaYpIeM13
— Secretary Brooke Rollins (@SecRollins) February 21, 2025

Secretary Rollins also providing an update Thursday, saying the agency canceled a $324,671 grant for “Increasing DEIA Programming for Integrated Pest Management.”

DOGE USDA
DOGE USDA took to X (formerly Twitter), seeking help and input from the public. That one post caused a flood of input, with more than 2,000 comments and suggestions. While some went as bold as asking DOGE USDA to abolish USDA reports, others asked DOGE to look into funding for solar on farmland and where the money has been spent to combat avian flu.

DOGE is seeking help from the public! Please DM this account with insights on finding and fixing waste, fraud and abuse relating to the US Department of Agriculture. Thank you.
— DOGE USDA (@DOGE_USDA) February 17, 2025

Are Farm Programs at Risk?

While farmers seem generally open to a USDA that wants to tackle waste, there’s also concern about what it could mean for crop insurance or other vital farm programs.

In an exclusive interview with Farm Journal during the 2025 Top Producer Summit , we asked Secretary Rollins how much push back she will have on DOGE and what assurances she can give producers that farm programs won’t be at risk.

“DOGE has brought, I think, a lot of excitement to all of America,” Rollins said. “I think there is not one person, except for maybe Elizabeth Warren and a few democrats ... everyone realizes at this moment in time in American history this is really important. Having said that, the United States Department of Agriculture, and since President Lincoln founded it in 1862, I believe, this agency is important to our farmers and ranchers with programs like the farm loans, etc., and imperative to a thriving rural America.”

Thank you @topproducermag for hosting @RogerMarshallMD and me in Kansas City, Missouri, with 1,000 of the Top Producers from across the US to talk about issues like expanding trade access and cutting regulatory red tape for farmers.

Biden’s ZERO trade deals and inflationary… pic.twitter.com/ejMxKxkRMG
— Secretary Brooke Rollins (@SecRollins) February 19, 2025

Rollins also pointed to President Trump’s approval rating within the rural community, as another reason this USDA will work to protect those programs.

“The farmers and the ranchers have been with him since he came down the escalator in 2015. I sincerely believe that those programs that are essential to keeping those communities thriving and hopefully even more prosperous going forward, that we’ll work with those to ensure that there is an understanding of how important those are,” said Rollins.

Checkoff Programs and DOGE
When DOGE took to X to ask for input, there were several comments about DOGE investigating agricultural checkoff programs. According to Pro Farmer Washington Correspondent Jim Wiesemeyer, DOGE is reportedly actively reviewing agricultural checkoff programs as part of its broader initiative to evaluate and potentially reform agricultural policy and spending.

AgriTalk’s Chip Flory asked Rollins if Checkoffs had become a target for DOGE.

“That is to be determined,” Rollins said. “I have not even begun to look at those. I know we’ve got a team looking at them. We’re going to get through the next few weeks and then we’ll start evaluating.

According to Wiesemeyer, USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service oversees 22 checkoff programs, which vary in legal authority and regulatory structure. Some operate under commodity-specific statutes, while others fall under the Commodity Promotion, Research, and Information Act of 1996. State-level checkoff programs also exist, often independently from federal programs, covering commodities such as corn, rice, apples, and table grapes.

The Pros/Cons of Ag Checkoff Programs
Wiesmeyer reports agricultural checkoff programs provide collective marketing, research, and education benefits, but they also face criticism for transparency, fairness and mandatory participation.

Pros

Market development: Expands markets and funds large-scale advertising.
Research & innovation: Improves farming practices, technology, and sustainability.
Education & trust: Enhances consumer confidence in agricultural products.
Return on investment: Studies show benefits outweigh costs, with high benefit-to-cost ratios.

Cons

Transparency issues: Small farmers criticize unclear fund allocation.
Favoring large producers: Benefits may tilt towards larger operations.
Mandatory fees: Farmers must contribute, even if they disagree.
Potential misuse: Allegations of lobbying and mismanagement exist.
Harm to specialty producers: Organic farmers may not benefit but still pay.
Legal challenges: Constitutional disputes over mandatory participation.

Wiesemeyer reports while checkoff programs drive industry growth, concerns over equity and governance continue to spark debate and calls for reform.

Watch Rollins’ full interview with AgriTalk’s Chip Flory.

Your Next Read:

USDA’s Rollins: ‘Let’s Go Barnstorm The World And Find New Partners’ For Trade

How Iowa Farmer Mark Hanna is Investing in Innovation and Giving Ag Startups a Fighting Chance

Thu, 20 Feb 2025 21:49:36 GMT

You’ll still find Iowa farmer Mark Hanna behind the wheel of his combine every fall. The technology and automation is a signature of their farm, and what helps keep running the combine still fun for someone who’s been farming for 46 years.

But the landscape of equipment and technology today looks drastically different from when he started farming in 1979.

“I joined my dad’s operation where I was basically the labor force to help me get started,” Hanna says, who farmers in Joyce, Iowa. “I would trade my labor for the use of his machinery.”

The Cusp of the 1980s Farm Crisis
Right on the cusp of the 1980s farm crisis, Hanna’s rookie years of farming were tough.

“It was a horrible time. It was 1979 and my grandpa, Dewey, whose farm we actually bought in 1980, said he was always going to sell me that farm, even when I was little,” Hanna remembers. “And it came about in 1981, and a year later, the farm was worth half of what we bought it for.”

Hanna describes farming as an occupation of risks and rewards. And the risks then were high.

“The bank got concerned and said, ‘Boy, your equity is going backward here. Your net worth isn’t good.’ And I said, ‘Well, I have a private contract with my grandpa. And as long as I make that, it really doesn’t matter to you.’”

The Mortgage Lifters
With interest rates at 18%, Hanna weathered that storm. One way he did was with farrow to finish hogs.

“I figured out they were the mortgage lifters,” he says. “So, I just raised as many as I could in every nook and cranny on the farm for about five or six years. And that kept me making my payments and kept me farming.”

Throughout the ‘90s, Hanna expanded more and more, moving all his hogs and pigs into an environment he could control.

“By 1998, I had even my sows inside as fully confinement buildings,” Hanna says. “But 1998, that was a pretty tough. We had 8 cent hogs in December. I had all my buildings full. We had just built two new buildings. It turned out to be a $30,000 a month loss with no end in sight.”

The Hog Market Crash of 1998
In 1998, Hanna met his biggest challenge yet. With margins in the red and the debt mounting, he knew he needed to find additional income. So, he decided to take a job in town working nights, while also still raising hogs.

“After two weeks of that, I decided, ‘You know what? There’s more important things in life. I’m doing the best I can. And if I’m doing the best I can and I can’t make it, so be it.’ So, I kept breeding sows and keeping all the facilities full. And by July that year we had $60 hogs. I had full buildings, and I made more money than I ever thought I would and got my debt taken care of,” Hanna says.

It’s that moment in Hanna’s career that his son, Philip, says was a pivotal point for their family farm.

“It really stuck out to me is that he just focused on ‘what can I do and not worry about the things that I can’t control and just focus on that’,” says Philip Hanna.

The Next Generation
Hanna’s sons, Philip and Andrew, are now partners in their family farm. And they say the thing they admire most about their dad is his vision and ability to take risks.

“I feel like technology-wise, our biggest thing is being able to variable rate our planting, planting our split application of 32% and our fertilizer in the fall. That’s been huge,” says Andrew Hanna.

Mark’s sons, Andrew and Philip, are now partners on the farm.

(Tyne Morgan )

From the latest technology to the decision to dive into strip till in 2018, even Hanna’s employee of 20 years will tell you he admires Hanna’s intelligence and ability to always look ahead.

“They’re just really good people to work for,” says Larry Severson, a long-time employee. “I mean, they’re very innovative. They try new things like the strip tower. We were the first ones in this area to make that leap. And they went headfirst into it and it worked out really well for them.”

Mark Hanna was one of the first in his area to try strip till, and it wasn’t just a few acres. Hanna went all-in.

(Matt Mormann )

Investing in Innovation
What may be the biggest mark of success is how Hanna is investing in innovation through Ag Ventures Alliance .

“We help startups in ag thrive and be successful,” he says. “We offer them a wealth of information and knowledge and help to get them going.”

Ag Ventures Alliance and AgLaunch now select their top 10 startups each year, offering advice and financial investment.

“Out of that spun AgLaunch Farmers LLC , which we started two years ago. Farmers actually get a stake in each company. They have to put up $100,000 and pledge it to the AgLaunch Farmer LLC. When they’re successful, the farmers will get paid back with their stake in the equity in the company,” Hanna says.

Ag Ventures Alliance was created to accelerate ag tech innovation and redefine resilience and profitability for American farmers.

(Ag Ventures Alliance )

For Hanna, investing in others and helping start-up companies launch into the ag field is one of the most rewarding parts of his job today.

“I like to see new innovations. We like to try the newest thing that’s coming out there on our own farm,” he says.

For his sons, Hanna’s ability to give back and support others is just a glimpse into the strong character he instilled in both of them.

“I came out of high school wanting to be just like my dad, wanting to be a farmer like he has been in the past and to grow with him in the future,” Andrew says.

Phillip adds, “I hope with my brother and me, when my dad starts phasing out, that we’re going to continue to be on the new technology like my dad was and just keep on improving things on the farm and not be afraid of trying new things and new technology.”
Congratulations to Mark Hanna, a finalist for the 2025 Top Producer of the Year.

Your Next Reads:
2025 Top Producer of the Year Marc Arnusch Looks for Success Beyond Commodity Farming

Dalton Dilldine: Next-Generation Producer Follows in His Father’s Footsteps

Texas Rancher Kimberly Ratcliff Trades the Big Apple for Community Beef Business

30 Minutes With Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins In Her First Week On the Job

Wed, 19 Feb 2025 21:13:59 GMT

Since Saturday, Nov. 23, 2024 , Brooke Rollins has been focused on how to build the teams and the plans that impact the trajectory of agriculture and rural America. On that day, while en route with her husband and four teenagers in their motor home to Auburn, Ala., for the Texas A&M football game, she got a call from now President Donald Trump. The purpose of his call: She was his top choice to fill his final significant cabinet position, Secretary of Agriculture.

Obviously, she had to wait for confirmation, which came last week on Feb.13 when the Senate overwhelmingly confirmed her as the 33^rd Secretary of Agriculture , but since that Saturday before Thanksgiving, she’s been on the go with an accelerated enthusiasm to understand the significant challenges facing rural communities that lost 147,000 family farms between 2017 and 2022 and why the cost of inputs are up 30% as exports are down $37 billion this year and likely to fall further in the months to come.

“This is a crisis, and this is something that I understand inherently,” Rollins said to kick off Top Producer Summit in Kansas City on Tuesday. “My promise to you is this, and my commitment will never waver, that every minute of every day for the next four years I will do everything within my power, with hopefully God’s hand on all of us and our work, to ensure we are not just entering the golden age for America, as my boss, President Trump, likes to say, but we are entering the golden age for agriculture.”

What Has Rollins Been Up to the Past Four Years?
Secretary Rollins and President Trump have worked together for almost eight years. She was in the West Wing with him for years two, three and four of his first term running his domestic policy agenda.

“This real estate guy from New York City brought that vision to life, and then in the last term, was able to really do some remarkable things,” Rollins said in regard to President Trump returning power to the people who just want a chance at the American dream. “I call it the great pause, the four years in between term one and term two. But I think the great pause allowed very intentional planning. It allowed a courageous and bold leader in President Trump to become a fearless leader and to do everything he can to bring America back to greatness.”

In the “dark days of January 2021,” as she described, Secretary Rollins helped launch the America First Policy Institute, a think tank established by former Trump officials to promote conservative policies. The idea was that those policies that made America great in Trump’s first term would continue indefinitely, not just for a second term, but for four years, eight years or 36 years, Rollins described.

First Week On the Job
Since being confirmed last week, Secretary Rollins has been in the Washington, D.C., USDA office for a few hours, but most of her time has been spent in Kentucky at National Farm Machinery Show in Louisville and Gallrein Farms and in Kansas visiting Finney’s County Feeder, High Plains Ponderosa Dairy and the National Beef Packing Plant .

Describing herself as “a reader and a studier,” Rollins seems adamant to hear firsthand from farmers and ranchers. She referenced her visits to the dairy farm and National Beef facility as inspiring, in a good way but also in a way that helps her understand the real challenges at hand.

Speaking to the crowd at Top Producer Summit, she shared her appreciation for the “entrepreneurial American game changers” who are doing their part to feed the world.

“It is so inspiring and a reminder of the very beginning of our country.” Rollins said. “Our revolution was fought by farmers, our Founding Fathers, like Thomas Jefferson and George Washington. The backbone of the great American experiment is this community.”

Thank you @topproducermag for hosting @RogerMarshallMD and me in Kansas City, Missouri, with 1,000 of the Top Producers from across the US to talk about issues like expanding trade access and cutting regulatory red tape for farmers.

Biden’s ZERO trade deals and inflationary… pic.twitter.com/ejMxKxkRMG
— Secretary Brooke Rollins (@SecRollins) February 19, 2025

Farmer Q&A
Watch and listen to what Secretary Rollins, as well as Sen. Roger Marshall of Kansas, had to say on stage at Top Producer Summit about these 7 topics:

Trade and tariffs — “ Let’s go barnstorm the world , and let’s go find some more trade partners and access [to market opportunities],” Rollins said.
Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) efforts and modernizing USDA — “DOGE is a very valid and important effort across all government. The stories of waste and abuse were really just, not USDA specific but across government, beginning,” Rollins said.
Federal programs, such as CSP and EQIP — “Our commitment is that if there have been commitments made, those will be honored. Getting our arms around all of that right now is really, really, important. Again, going back to the President’s heart and commitment to our farmers, I feel confident we will be able to solve any issues that are in front of our ag community, that are potentially being compromised by the DOGE effort, while at the same time recognizing how very, very important it is,” Rollins said.
Future of USDA — “There’s no question USDA needs some modernization. I’m just beginning to lean into that as well,” Rollins said. USDA has 106,000 employees and 29 departments. “The Secretary is taking over a department where only 6% of the [D.C.] people work in the office,” Marshall added.
Renewable fuels — Prior to President Trump’s first term, he was “the first major candidate to support biofuels, and I think that carried him through Iowa in many ways. … We’ve got E15 year-round. I think that gives us some certainty as well. … The President is supporting that. I think we’re trying to figure out how to save 45Z, but we can’t let China benefit from it. Right now, China is benefiting more from [45Z] than my farmers and ranchers are, so we’ve got to fix that,” Marshall says.
Immigration policies and availability of long-term labor — “I have a full-bodied understanding of the challenges within the labor market, and I believe the President does too. … I believe that we will very soon be talking about it again. Clearly, the H-2A program needs significant reform, and Lori Chavez-DeRemer, she’s going through the [confirmation] process right now. … Hopefully she’ll get her vote very soon. We’ve got a lot of work to do,” Rollins said.
Trump’s cabinet members — “Our cabinet is comprised of people that have been working together and have been friends and colleagues for years, with a few exceptions. Bobby Kennedy is a new friend, but Lee Zeldin and I worked together in America First Works and America First Policy Institute for the last almost four years, Linda McMahon in education and John Brooks — these are our people,” Rollins said.

The Tax Man Cometh To The Farm

Wed, 19 Feb 2025 15:52:13 GMT

Everyone can benefit from a practical reminder from time-to-time. In this case, Paul Neiffer wants to remind farmers that the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act is set to expire at the end of 2025.

“We’ve had these tax cuts for eight years now, but farmers may not be thinking about this and what it could mean for them,” said Neiffer, principal of FarmCPAReport.com and a Top Producer columnist.

Neiffer addressed the topic of what farmers need to know now and address from a tax standpoint during the 2025 Top Producer Summit in Kansas City.

“Certainly, farmers are aware of the lifetime estate tax exemption dropping in half after this year. But I think a lot of these other provisions that would hit them, they’re probably not quite as aware of them,” he said.

Neiffer highlighted three provisions he believes U.S. farmers are likely most interested in seeing extended or made permanent. They include:

1. The 100% Bonus Depreciation. Neiffer said he believes the 100% provision will be made permanent, though it’s currently only 40%.

“We think that will come back to farmers,” he said. “The practical benefit is when they purchase equipment or farm buildings they’ll be able to deduct 100% of that item in the year of purchase. Also, there is a chance that trade-in of farm equipment will be similar to the old rules and non-taxable in most situations.”

2. The increase in the lifetime exemption for estates. If the current law is left unchanged, as of Jan 1, 2026, the present lifetime estate and gift tax exemption will be cut approximately in half. It currently is almost $14 million.

Neiffer is optimistic about the exemption. “I think the likelihood on the estate exemption is very good. I think that’ll stay at least at the current level,” he said.

3. The Section 199A Cap. This provision allows individuals, trusts and estates with pass-through business income to deduct up to 20% of qualified business income (QBI) from taxable ordinary income. Schedule F farmers are also granted the 20% deduction.

While Neiffer said there is some bipartisan support in Congress for extending the Section 199A deduction beyond 2025, he is ambivalent about that happening. “With that 20%, it would be a lot more costly to enact,” he noted.

Practical Next Steps Farmers Can Take
Looking ahead, Neiffer said he believes the likelihood of having a major tax bill before the end of 2025 is slim. At best, the bill would be ready by November or December.

For that reason, Neiffer’s recommendation to farmers is for them to plan on pushing income into 2026 but to have the flexibility to bring that income back into 2025.

“The reason is if the tax cuts don’t get extended that means 2026 tax brackets are going to be a lot higher,” Neiffer explained. “So, we would want to bring income into 2025. Now, farmers have the ability to do that using deferred payment contracts and some other elections that they can make – but only if they plan ahead accordingly. They definitely want to make sure they do that,” he added.

Your next read: It’s Tax Time: Your Guide To Calculate Farm Income

Dalton Dilldine: Next-Generation Producer Follows in His Father's Footsteps

Wed, 19 Feb 2025 14:38:25 GMT

Fourth-generation Arkansas farmer Dalton Dilldine always dreamed of farming and following in his father’s footsteps.

“I knew I wanted to farm and really couldn’t imagine doing anything else,” he says.

But Dilldine’s dad unexpectedly passed away when he was a senior in high school with a limited succession plan in place — leaving him with the choice to take over the operation, start his own farm or go to college.

He chose all three.

“I would go to school and come home every weekend. After I graduated, I started taking over the whole operation and really tried to do things that my father would be proud of - and that I could be proud for myself. I just tried to do my best every day.”

Expanding With Innovation
Located in the Delta of Arkansas, he co-managed Half Moon Farm with his mother until 2010 when he went on his own, creating Mezza Luna Farms. Now, Dilldine grows 6,000 acres of cotton, soybeans, wheat, corn and rice. Of those acres, 2,700 are owned and the rest rented. The farm also has four full-time employees and several H-2A workers.

His strategy for the operation is continuous improvement with a focus on profitability.

“One of my big goals is to just try to be efficient, whatever can be done. We use technology and buy bigger equipment to be able to do more with less,” he says. “Just finding people who want to work on our farm and want to help and understand how a farm works has been a big help for us.”

He also pushes his yields, working with NRCS on conservation programs and quickly adapting to new technology.

“We have moisture sensors in our fields that will tell me the optimal time to start and turn off irrigation. There’s automation in most of our wells, too. I can start them with my phone and turn them off. They’ll tell me if something’s going on,” he explains. “Our equipment with GPUs are an asset to see what’s going on in the field from my office. That’s been a huge blessing.”

Dilldine also purchased a commercial grain entity during the 2022 harvest season amid a drought that was leading to significant decreases in basis due to low river levels.

“It’s about 750,000 bushel storage. Right now, we can use about 600,000 of that capability,” he says. “I can dump trucks in about six minutes, and I can load them out in about 12 - which is pretty fast for a private grain facility.”

Adversity Strikes Twice
On top of losing his father, the beginning of Dilldine’s farming career was made even more challenging when he suffered a major injury that crushed two vertebrae in his back.

“I had a long road of recovery right in the beginning of farming,” he remembers. “I had to do a whole lot of talking on the phone and teaching somebody else how to run that sprayer. It was a lot to deal with.”

But he learned a valuable lesson that has served him well on the farm.

“I taught myself to be a whole lot more patient and to not be wide open all the time,” he says.

Dilldine’s wife, Skiver, who also assists on the farm when she’s not busy as a nurse practitioner, says she couldn’t be prouder of his progress.

“He didn’t have a mentor in his younger years to kind of guide him through some of the hard farming lessons, and he’s learned those on his own with the help of others. He’s just really put in a lot of legwork, a lot of tears and blood, and just really powered through all the adversities to come out on top,” she says.

Despite these challenges, Dilldine says he’s reached many of his farming goals - and others can too.

“I want young farmers to be aware that you can do it. It’s not impossible as often as it feels like,” he adds.

USDA's Rollins: 'Let's Go Barnstorm The World And Find New Partners' For Trade

Tue, 18 Feb 2025 18:09:21 GMT

On Brooke Rollins’ first full week on the job as Secretary of Agriculture, she addressed the 600 farmers, ranchers and industry leaders in Kansas City for the 2025 Top Producer Summit.

High on Rollins’ list of priorities was the topic of trade and President Donald Trump’s vision for U.S. agriculture moving forward.

While Rollins did not shy away from addressing the administration’s decision to implement trade tariffs, noting “farmer and rancher concerns are legitimate,” she focused on what she sees as her role ahead.

“My job is to ensure that as President Trump and our trade representatives are making their decisions that I am in the room and advocating on behalf of our people, on behalf of all of you,” she told Top Producer Summit attendees.

One of her key objectives, she says, is to find and expand market access for U.S. agricultural products domestically and abroad.

“Let’s go barnstorm the world, and let’s go find some more trade partners and access [to market opportunities],” she says.

Rollins says her goals for trade are a reflection of Trump’s vision and his determination to make agriculture part of the “golden age” he sees ahead for the U.S.

Trump is the consummate deal maker, Rollins notes, able to side-step bureaucracy and red tape in the process to work with world leaders.

“I don’t know that in the last 250 years, we’ve had anyone in office like President Trump,” she says. “He is a very unusual, remarkable and fearless man, and he wants to make a deal, and in the best way, and put America first.”

Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins spoke to a crowd of 600 farmers, ranchers and industry leaders at the 2025 Top Producer Summit.

(Jim Barcus)

Making Headway With Trade
Sen. Roger Marshall of Kansas, who moderated the conversation with Rollins, highlighted Trump’s work to build trade during his first term.

“He redid USMCA, and now that’s our largest ag partnership, with Mexico and Canada,” Marshall says. “He gave us South Korea and Japan, which has been so important to Kansas and our cattle industry, as well as trade 1.0 with China.”

Marshall then mentioned the headway he believes Trump and team have made with India.

“I see India replacing China as our major trade partner, as well that China is growing right now,” Marshall says. “I think there’s huge opportunities in India.”

U.S. ethanol, cotton and tree nuts are three of the top agricultural exports to India, a country that has in the past impeded agricultural trade with tariffs and non-tariff barriers alike. Trump called out the barriers to trade following recent conversations with India’s Prime Minster Modi.

A joint statement after the Trump-Modi meeting said Washington welcomed New Delhi’s recent steps to lower tariffs on select U.S. products and increase market access to U.S. farm products, while seeking to negotiate the initial segments of a trade deal by the fall of 2025.

Rollins says the progress underway with India was just one step forward to address what she described as a trade crisis for the U.S.

“Our exports are down $37 billion this year and likely to be down $42 billion in the months to come. This is a crisis, and this is something that I understand inherently,” Rollins says.

“We have a tremendous amount of work to do,” she adds. “But my promise to you is this, and my commitment will never waver, that every minute of every day for the next four years, I will do everything within my power with hopefully God’s hand on all of us and our work to ensure that we are not just entering the golden age for America, as my boss, President Trump, likes to say, but that we are entering the golden age for agriculture.”

Secretary Rollins joined Chip Flory on AgriTalk. Listen to their discussion about trade policy and tariffs; avian flu; and disaster and economic aid.

Your next read: Senate Overwhelmingly Confirms Brooke Rollins as 33rd Secretary of Agriculture

BREAKING: USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins and Sen. Roger Marshall to Join Farmers At Top Producer Summit

Sun, 16 Feb 2025 21:24:21 GMT

Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins and Sen. Roger Marshall of Kansas will speak Tuesday morning at this week’s Top Producer Summit in Kansas City. The event is among the secretary’s first public appearances since being confirmed Feb. 13 . The fireside chat will cover key topics driving the future of agriculture.

A one-day pass to the event is available to give the agriculture industry a chance to hear Secretary Rollins share her vision for U.S. agriculture. Advanced registration is required due to security protocols. Register now with discount code ONEDAY to receive the special rate.

Secretary Rollins, originally from Glen Rose, Texas, serves as the 33rd Secretary of Agriculture. Most recently, she was founder, president and CEO of the America First Policy Institute. During President Donald Trump’s first administration, she was the director of the Domestic Policy Council and assistant to the President for Strategic Initiatives in the White House. She also previously served as director of the Office of American Innovation.

Sen. Marshall is a physician and U.S. Senator for Kansas. As a fifth-generation farmer from Butler County, Sen. Marshall became the first in his family to attend college. In the Senate, he serves on the Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry. He is the chairman of the Subcommittee on Conservation, Climate, Forestry, and Natural Resources and a member of the Subcommittee on Food and Nutrition, Specialty Crops, Organics, and Research.

Tickets are still available to attend the entire Top Producer Summit , which is agriculture’s premier educational and networking event for forward-thinking farmers and ranchers. The event will bring producers of nearly a dozen commodities together at the Loews Kansas City Hotel to share business opportunities and ideas for taking their operations to the next level.

In addition to the fireside chat with Secretary Rollins and Sen. Marshall, the agenda includes:

The Future of Farming with Byron Reese, futurist, technologist and entrepreneur
Conquer Decision Paralysis with Rena Striegel, Transition Point Business Advisors
How Income Taxes May Change Due To The Election with CPA Paul Neiffer
Land Diversification: What to Know Before Exploring Renewable Energy and Conservation Opportunities with Quint Shambaugh, Pinion
What’s Ahead for Farm Input Pricing with Sam Taylor, Rabo AgriFinance
What to Watch With the Weather in 2025 with Eric Snodgrass, Principal Atmospheric Scientist, Conduit Ag
Global Fertilizer Market Overview: What It Means At Your Farm Gate with Josh Linville, StoneX

Some of the nation’s most outstanding farm operations will be recognized, including winners of the 2025 Top Producer of the Year award , the 2025 Women in Ag award and the 2025 Next Gen award .

Do Tariffs Work? Leading Ag Economists Weigh In

Mon, 03 Feb 2025 17:00:00 GMT

Tariffs are a tool used by President Donald Trump during both his terms. But do they work? Not even ag economists are in alignment, as the answer seems to be: It depends.

This past weekend, Trump signed three executive orders for tariffs , the first time a president has used powers granted under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977. The orders also include retaliation clauses that would ramp up tariffs if the countries respond in kind. Trump cut the levy on imports of Canadian energy to 10%.

By Monday morning, Trump had agreed to delay tariffs on goods from Mexico for one month to allow more time for negotiations. The agreement happened just hours before the tariffs were set to take effect.

President Claudia Sheinbaum said U.S. tariffs against Mexico will be delayed for one month after a conversation with Trump on Monday. Trump then confirmed the news on Truth Social.

Which Input Could Be Impacted Most by Tariffs?

Tariffs on the U.S.'s top three trading partners could have a major impact on agriculture. The January Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor asked economists which input is most at risk. The top answer was fertilizer.

Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lindsey Pound)

“From a headline standpoint, it’s probably potash,” says Samuel Taylor, farm inputs analyst, Rabobank. “We get 85% to 90% of our potash from imports from the Canadian market. The residual is made up by Russia and Israel, in principle, with some other markets coming in.”

One day after Trump announced he would move ahead with planned tariffs, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stated tariffs targeting $30 billion in American products, such as alcohol, produce, household goods and industrial materials, will roll out in two phases starting Feb. 4, the same day the U.S. tariffs are set to begin.

The tariffs on the other $125 billion worth of goods will come in 21 days to allow impacted Canadian companies to adjust their supply chains. Trudeau emphasized Canada’s response would be “strong but appropriate,” while also considering non-tariff measures such as restrictions on critical minerals.

Do Tariffs Work?

With tariffs and a potential trade war brewing that begs the question: Do tariffs work?

It’s something Farm Journal asked the nearly 70 ag economists part of the Farm Journal Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor. The survey asked economists: “Do tariffs work in trade policy?” Economists views were mixed:

“Tariffs can work in trade policy — that’s why nations continue to use them. The complex part that extends beyond the tariff action is potential long-term repercussions that can result from trade flow changes.”
“In limited cases, typically only if they result in a policy response in the targeted country. Much of the time, tariffs are like cutting off one’s nose to spite one’s face.”
“Tariffs provide short-term gains but have always failed relative to free trade in the long term.”
“Absolutely, when properly applied.”
“Not over the long term. They tend to affect who gets to supply different markets around the world.”

The Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor also asked: “When tariffs are used as a ‘tool’ in trade, who pays the tariff?” Not all economists were aligned on that answer either, saying sometimes it’s farmers and consumers, but it can also be the exporting countries.

“When the U.S. imposes tariffs on imports, importers in the U.S. pay taxes to the U.S. government on their purchases from abroad. When another nation imposes tariffs, importers in that nation pay import taxes to their government on their purchases from abroad. Often, when a tariff is implemented, another nation retaliates, and you end up with importers in both nations paying the price on whatever products the tariffs apply toward.”
“If an importing country places a tariff on the exporting country, producers in the exporting country and consumers in the importing country both lose (i.e., receive lower and higher prices, respectively). Conversely, producers in the importing country and consumers in the exporting country win (i.e., receive higher and lower prices, respectively).”
“In the short run, consumers who purchase goods with a tariff might see higher prices if the tariff is not absorbed elsewhere. In the long run, the tariff might result in changes to the supply chain that result in higher prices but also create other economic opportunities in America (e.g. reshoring of domestic manufacturing).”
“The correct economist answer is: It depends. Tariffs drive a wedge between prices in the exporting country and in the importing country. It depends on the circumstances of particular markets and how much is reflected in higher prices in the importing country and reduced prices in the exporting country.”
“Both the exporting nation and the importing consumer pay some portion of the tariff depending on who has more flexibility to adjust to trade barrier. If exporting countries can easily switch to supplying other markets, they won’t have to ‘pay.’ If consumers can easily find cheap substitute goods, they won’t have to pay.”

What A Battle Over the Panama Canal Means For U.S. Agriculture

Mon, 27 Jan 2025 21:14:26 GMT

The Panama Canal is in President Donald Trump’s crosshairs with him pledging in his inaugural address to take it over due to Chinese influence. As a result, Panamanian authorities have initiated an audit of Panama Ports Company. Because any disruption in access to this critical logistics channel would hurt U.S. ag exports, the industry is closely watching the developments.

The Panama Canal has been at the center of controversy since the U.S. turned it over to Panama in 2000 under a treaty signed in 1977.

“An ingredient of that treaty is the canal must be neutral. It can’t prefer one country over the other,” says Mike Steenhoek, executive director, Soy Transportation Coalition. “If that ever was in danger or peril, U.S. military intervention would be justified.”

The Areas in Question
While Trump has called Chinese influence in Panama a national security issue, Steenhoek says the specific issue is their influence at two regional ports.

“Two of the five are actually operated by a Hong Kong-based company called Hutchison Port Holdings,” Steenhoek says. “The company originally received a 25-year concession to operate those two ports: one on the Pacific side and one on the Atlantic side in the late 1990s. Just recently, that 25-year concession came up and was re-extended.”

Trump also claims U.S. ships have been unfairly charged for using the canal. Steenhoek attributes higher freight charges to the drought, which limited service, but also points out the tolls are transparent and governed by the treaty signed with the U.S.

“Part of the treaty made sure it had to be governed on a neutral basis, so one country or one industry didn’t receive preferential treatments,” Steenhoek says. “The tolls are very public and how they’re assessed is based on different types of vessels and different types of tonnage that’s utilizing the canal.”

Meanwhile, Panama’s president has declared Panama’s control of the canal as “non-negotiable.” The ag industry can only hope for a resolution that doesn’t disrupt trade.

Watch this 3-minute video to learn more about the Panama Canal:

Your Next Read: D.C. Insider Jim Weisemeyer Explains How Trump’s Return Could Shape Ag’s Future

Farmers Select Eight Tech Startups For AgLaunch Accelerator Program

Thu, 09 Jan 2025 15:44:00 GMT

AgLaunch announces its next cohort of startups to participate in the two-year AgLaunch365 Accelerator Program.

“Our farmer-driven approach ensures these startups develop impactful, scalable solutions to agriculture’s biggest challenges,” said Pete Nelson, President of AgLaunch. “This year’s cohort represents the best in labor-saving robots, rapid diagnostics, new traits and sustainable biologics selected to help farmers now and build a bridge to a more resilient farming system.”

The teams are:

● Barn Owl Precision Agriculture deploys the Autonomous Nano Tractor (ANT) as a service to support small farmers in securing our food supply, combating climate change, and rekindling a passion for farming. Designed for precision weeding in row crop environments, the system offers operational support throughout the farming cycle—from planting to harvest.

● Barnwell Bio is an animal health data platform powered by wastewater analysis. By offering early identification of health trends, we help minimize livestock mortality and maximize productivity, removing guesswork from animal health management.

● BugBiome harnesses nature’s own defenses to protect crops from pests safely and
sustainably. By leveraging plant microbiomes and innovative hardware to study insect behavior, the team discovers bioprotectants that pose no harm to people or pollinators.

● IngateyGen specializes in developing innovative peanut varieties using CRISPR genome editing technology. Our traits improve safety and nutritional value, delivering enhanced
health and wellness benefits for consumers.

● Kalix gives farmers real-time control over animal health with rapid disease testing results delivered in just one hour—compared to the typical 5–7 days required for external lab testing.

● MicroMGx delivers nature’s solutions for global agriculture. Proprietary technology identifies novel chemicals from microbes 100 times more efficiently than traditional methods. Our lead product is a naturally produced herbicide with a groundbreaking mechanism of action—the first in 35 years.

● Mycologics offers a biofungicide manufacturing platform derived from microbial natural products, providing sustainable solutions for crop protection.

● Rogue.ai develops the most advanced spraying drones on the market, powered by a hybrid-electric powertrain. Our technology significantly reduces operational costs while enhancing on-field productivity.

AgLaunch uniquely combines tailored investments (led by Ag Ventures Alliance, Countryside Angels and a national network of aligned investors), on-farm trials (supported by AgLaunch’s network of farmer-partners across the U.S.), and access to valuable agricultural data to fast-track the commercialization of transformative technologies.

“This program is unique because it’s driven by farmers,” said Alex Forsbach, Tennessee farmer and member of the national network. “The hands-on involvement from me and my partner farmers across the US ensures these technologies deliver real-world impact.”

Another unique part of the program is the partnership with Farm Journal, which includes these startup teams participating in the Smart Farming pitch session at the Top Producer Summit in Kansas City.

Then, the 2025 cohort will give their investment focused pitch as the finale at the AgLaunch Portfolio Showcase and Demo Day, a one-day event in Memphis, Tennessee, on February 27, 2025.

Trump’s Cabinet Nominees Now Up Odds for Expanding U.S. Trade/Economic War with China

Wed, 20 Nov 2024 17:07:41 GMT

President-elect Donald Trump’s selection of Howard Lutnick, the CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald, as Commerce Secretary highlights plans to leverage tariffs in trade negotiations, with Lutnick emphasizing their use as both a revenue source and bargaining tool.

Lutnick has called the tariffs a negotiating tool that could be used to convince other countries to bring down their own levies or to force companies to move production to the U.S. He has said Trump would avoid taxes on products U.S. companies don’t make.

Commerce oversees the International Trade Administration, an agency in charge of enforcing trade laws and investigating unfair trade practices.

The appointment raises questions about the role of Robert Lighthizer, a prominent China hawk and decoupling advocate, who might still secure a key position such as National Economic Council leader or ambassador to China. The nomination marks Lutnick’s transition from co-chair of Trump’s transition team to a pivotal role in shaping U.S. economic policy.

Of note: Trump said that the Commerce Secretary would have “additional direct responsibility for the Office of the United States Trade Representative.” The phrase means that Trump may try to fold the latter position within the Commerce Department, a move that has been tried before to combine government trade work.

Trump’s trade agenda is heavily focused on imposing substantial tariffs, particularly targeting China. He has proposed a 60% tariff on Chinese goods and 10-20% tariffs on imports from other countries. Lutnick has been a vocal supporter of these tariffs, suggesting they could replace income tax revenue over time. He believes that by making American businesses more competitive through tariffs, it could lead to lower overall tax rates.

Lutnick’s vision aligns with Trump’s historical approach to trade, which emphasizes protectionism to bolster U.S. manufacturing and reduce reliance on imports. During a recent rally, Lutnick remarked that America’s economic prosperity in the early 1900s was due to tariffs rather than income taxes, indicating his belief in a return to such policies. Lutnick has said the incoming administration would use tariffs as a bargaining chip with other countries. “We’ll make a bunch of money on the tariffs, but mostly everybody else is going to negotiate with us,” he said on CNBC.

Lutnick’s appointment signals an aggressive stance on trade that could lead to increased tensions with trading partners. The Commerce Department plays a crucial role in enforcing tariffs and negotiating trade agreements, which may become contentious under Lutnick’s leadership. Economists have expressed concerns that such high tariffs could lead to retaliatory measures from other nations, potentially resulting in higher prices for consumers and disruptions in global supply chains.

On China, Lutnick has accused the country of being the source of fentanyl in the US, saying that “China is attacking America from its guts.” Kevin Chen, associate research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, told the South China Morning Post, “There is little question that he will push forward with tariffs That being said, he has also suggested that the tariffs could be used to negotiate trade deals with other countries,” he said. Chen suggested that the choice of Lutnick —alongside other China hawks joining Trump’s team including Marco Rubio as secretary of state and Mike Waltz as national security adviser — could be “very dangerous for U.S./China relations” given the Commerce Department’s oversight of export controls.

“Lutnick is likely to focus tariffs on China’s manufacturing sector, especially for goods that the U.S. already produces. The likelihood of this leading to another U.S./China trade war is too high to ignore,” he said. “Lutnick fits in well with the trend of Trump’s cabinet picks … [as] he’s a China hawk who shares Trump’s strong views on the threat posed by China and how to address it.”

Asked about Lutnick’s nomination, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian said he would not comment on U.S. internal affairs but added that a trade war “will not produce any winner and is in no one’s interest.”

Treasury Secretary Possibilities

Trump is taking a closer look at Sen. Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.) to potentially serve as Treasury Secretary, Axios reports. Hagerty, a former private-equity investor who was Trump’s ambassador to Japan, is one of three apparent finalists, along with former Fed governor Kevin Warsh and Apollo CEO Marc Rowan. The Treasury position is key as the Cabinet member will play in a key role in major issues, including:

Rising federal debt
Enacting Trump’s tax cut plan
Helping implement Trump’s tariff plans
Coming up with pay-for plans
Keeping inflation low
Implementing 45Z and other biofuel tax incentive programs (IRS)

U.S. businesses brace for potential Trump tariffs.

American companies are accelerating inventory orders ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration, fearing the implementation of his proposed tariffs on imports. Trump has suggested levies of 10-20% on all imports and up to 60% on Chinese goods. Firms are also strategizing for potential impacts, including price adjustments and diversifying away from Chinese manufacturers, the Wall Street Journal reports ( link ).

Tariffs and Pricing Impacts

Walmart acknowledged the retailer would probably raise prices on some goods if Donald Trump moves forward with plans to enact sweeping tariffs. Walmart’s CFO John David Rainey stated that prices on some items may increase but it is uncertain which products might see price hikes due to the tariffs. A Walmart spokesperson indicated that any price changes are speculative, but future tariff-induced costs could burden sensitive shoppers.

Lowe’s words were more circumspect, with the home-improvement retailer’s executives noting tariffs would lift costs but also saying they were waiting to see what happens when the new administration takes office in January.

Walmart said shoppers are resilient but are still spending more on food than they have historically.

Lowe’s said homeowners are still waiting for lower interest rates to embark on big home-improvement projects.

Your Next Read: Could Trump Actually Be Good for U.S. Ag Trade?