Beef Industry Chaos: Tight Supplies, Strong Consumer Demand and Political Interference

Thu, 13 Nov 2025 19:42:19 GMT

The current state of the cattle market and beef industry has been described as chaotic. “There’s chaos in cattle,” as Chip Flory, AgriTalk host, put it.

The industry turmoil follows recent statements made by President Donald Trump regarding the need to lower beef prices as well as his request for the Department of Justice to immediately begin an investigation into meatpackers for driving up the price of beef.

Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist from Oklahoma State University, affirms these are unique times, emphasizing while political factors have always indirectly influenced agriculture, it’s unprecedented for the cattle and beef markets to be at the center of direct political debate.

On a recent AgriTalk segment, Peel points out the inherent biological and production constraints of the cattle industry — particularly the fixed timeline to raise cattle — make quick fixes impossible. Both Flory and Peel stress that no political policy can shorten the cattle production process; any effective supply response requires patience and long-term adjustment.

Packers Under Fire

The concept of industry consolidation and foreign packer ownership has long drawn scrutiny with frequent government investigations. Peel says highly concentrated industries such as beef packing have been targets for skepticism and regulatory attention for over a century, to the point suspicion of packers is almost “a cultural thing” within segments of the industry.

He characterizes the latest call as another attempt to target convenient scapegoats rather than addressing deeper systemic realities of supply and demand.

“The reason we have the industry structure we do is because the economies of size and cost efficiencies are such a powerful economic force,” Peels explains.

He confirms researchers have long studied market power, and while concentration does have a small negative price impact for producers, the efficiency and cost-savings from large-scale firms more than compensate. These benefits, he says, keep cattle prices higher for producers and beef prices lower for consumers than they would be with a less efficient structure.

Dissecting the economics of margin markets Peels explains why price changes in different parts of the beef supply chain — cow-calf, feeders, packers and retailers — don’t move in lockstep. He uses a “bungee cord” analogy to illustrate the complex, dynamic and time-lagged interactions linking cattle prices at the farm with retail beef prices.

“All cattle prices and beef prices are ultimately connected, but they’re not connected with a stick or a chain,” Peel summarizes.” They’re connected with a bungee cord. There’s just an enormous amount of dynamics in this thing.”

Regarding the foreign ownership debate, Peel says there is no evidence foreign ownership alters packer behavior within the U.S. marketplace. He emphasizes foreign firms have made large investments in U.S. facilities and continue to operate them by the same market logic that would govern domestic ownership.

He also points out it is unclear who else would be in a position to make such significant investments if these foreign companies were not involved. This pragmatic view suggests the ownership issue might be less important than is commonly believed, at least concerning everyday operations and market outcomes.

A Lot Hinges on Rebuilding the Cow Herd

In his latest article, “ All Bets are Off ,” Peel says: “The latest edition in the torrent of recent political attentions directed at the cattle and beef industry includes allegations of market manipulation against the beef packing industry. Beef packers are the one segment that has been most negatively impacted in the current market, incurring huge losses due to poor margins and limited cattle supplies.”

(Meat Institute)

Peel reports packers have been losing enormous amounts of money for about the past 18 to 24 months. According to the Meat Institute, packer margins slipped into the red in September 2024. Through the week ending Oct. 4, 2025, packer margins were a negative $126.50 per head, up slightly from a year earlier at a negative $125.65 per head, according to Sterling Profit Tracker. The outlook for the year is a negative $165.96 per head packer margin.

“There’s just simply not enough cattle for them to operate at cost efficient capacities,” Peel explains.

This negative trend was anticipated — the reduced supply of cattle has made it difficult for packing plants to function at cost-efficient capacities, leading to the accumulation of operating losses. Peel points out the combination of low unit margins and insufficient cattle supplies challenges the economic viability of packers, further illustrating the complexity of the current environment.

This decline in inventory is not the result of a single factor but is driven by several years of drought and other market pressures. It is clear high beef and cattle prices are a result of these tight supplies and, according to Peel, these high prices are likely to persist for several years. The industry simply cannot turn around production levels quickly, and it will take time — a matter of years, not months — for conditions to normalize.

“Using logic that only works in the office of a politician, packers are supposedly wielding unacceptable market power while paying record high cattle prices and artificially raising beef prices … but not enough to avoid losing a couple hundred dollars on every animal they process — certainly many millions of dollars,” Peel says. “If beef packers had any significant ability to exercise market power, I am certain that we would not have record high cattle prices and packers would not be losing money.”

Peel suggests the federal government attacks on beef packers are aided and supported by a vocal minority of the cattle industry and a few sympathetic politicians who view packers as a perennial villain and always worthy of attack anytime the opportunity is presented.

“The timing of such attacks this time is particularly puzzling as dismantling the packing industry would certainly jeopardize current record high cattle prices and the best economic returns most producers have ever enjoyed,” Peels says. “I guess some cowboys just can’t stand prosperity.”

R-CALF CEO Bill Bullard says the cattle market is fundamentally broken citing years of an inverse relationship between falling cattle prices and increasing retail beef prices when the only ingredient in beef is cattle. Read more about his perspective.

Patience not Politics

Beef and cattle prices, Peel notes, are historically high, a result of industry-wide low cattle inventory. Rebuilding the nation’s cow herd will be a long, slow process, keeping prices elevated for an extended period. And Peel says there is no definitive evidence producers are saving heifers to start the rebuilding process.

“2025 may prove to be technically the cyclical low, but 2026 is going to be barely bigger, if it is, and no growth in 2026 and probably none in 2027 ... it’s 2028 into 2029 before that turns into increased beef production,” Peel predicts.

He summarizes neither regulatory nor political action will can speed up the rebuilding process. It will take years of concerted effort, market healing and stability before the industry can expect a meaningful rebound in herd numbers and production — a reality that requires patience across the industry.

“There is absolutely nothing anybody can do to make beef prices go down, or cattle prices, other than maybe tear up the industry completely,” Peels says. “And if we tear up the industry, it’ll make cattle prices go down, but it won’t make beef prices go down. It’ll make beef prices go even higher for consumers and the only way to fix this is to give the industry time to rebuild, and that’s going to take two to four years if we ever get started.”

He says a majority of cattle producers understand the beef industry is extremely complex and all segments are critical and essential.

“Though the outcome of current political actions is uncertain, the potential for long-term harm to the industry is substantial,” Peel says. “Anytime politics trumps economics, the strong supply and demand fundamentals that have determined the outlook for the industry to this point become irrelevant. Expectations for prices and production going forward are now completely clouded…therefore… all bets are off.”

Your Next Read: You Be The Judge: The Big Bad Beef Packers Are On Trial

Fast Delivery, Competitive Prices and Simplicity Drives FBN Customer Satisfaction

Tue, 17 Jun 2025 19:13:33 GMT

A one-stop shop for farm and ranch input needs, Farmers Business Network (FBN) serves more than 13,000 livestock producers from across the U.S. FBN is expanding its livestock offering to include Ridley Feeds, Farmers First Mineral, fencing supplies, equine products as well as pet care.

Crop and cattle producer Kyle Burk, Burk Land & Cattle in Marionville, Mo., has been a customer of FBN for two years. Initially using FBN for its competitive chemical pricing, Burk now purchases approximately 90% of his mineral products for his livestock through the company.

“We background a lot of cattle for Joplin Regional Stockyards,” Burk says. “I feel the cattle have gained tremendously better with the FBN mineral program, whether it be fly control or other attribute.”

Burk manages a 2,000-acre farm primarily focused on feed production for his family’s stock cows, dairy and grow yard. He says FBN has become an integral part of his agricultural strategy — providing not just products, but comprehensive support across purchasing, financing and consulting.

“The website is extremely easy to use,” Burk explains.

The platform’s intuitive design allows him to quickly locate and order the exact items he needs for his diverse operation.

Customer service is another key to Burk’s FBN experience. He appreciates how the company proactively contacts customers within 24 hours of an unusual order to confirm it’s correct.

Beyond product ordering, Burk has also utilized FBN’s financial services. After an accident last year, he turned to FBN classifieds to purchase a replacement silage truck and secured financing through FBN within a day. The rate, he says, was more competitive than his local bank.

Burk says he recommends and appreciates the FBN professionals who have helped him with purchasing decisions. When drought led him to switch to conventional corn, he worked FBN’s chemical specialist for product support.

“It’s probably the cleanest corn we’ve ever had,” Burk says.

Expanding Livestock Catalog

Livestock is FBN’s fastest-growing segment, powered by producer trust in speed, value and reliable delivery. According to Emily Zollinger, FBN director of livestock, the platform’s latest offerings include:

Ridley Feeds (a division of Alltech) : Sweetlix mineral and tubs now available with live, daily pricing
Farmers First Mineral : A new, simplified line of cattle mineral dynamic pricing and clear online descriptions
Fencing Supplies : Including barbed wire, woven wire, pipe, cable and other fencing tools
Equine Care : Products for grooming, nutrition, deworming, hoof care and vaccinations
Pet Health: Vaccines, parasite control, nutrition, and prescriptions filled with vet approval

“We’re building a marketplace where ranchers and livestock producers get not only great prices, but convenience and service they can count on,” Zollinger says.

(FBN)

Why Producers Choose FBN

Initially founded in 2014, FBN expanded into livestock in 2020. Today, the platform is designed to make purchasing fast, transparent and farm-friendly.

Key features include:

Free membership
Build your own online order
Fast shipping (typically two business days)
Nationwide logistics network across the U.S. and Canada
Flexible support ranging from self-service to dedicated account reps
Educational tools including blogs and resource hubs
Financing options with competitive rates
Prescription support working directly with your vet to verify orders

Zollinger says FBN’s mission is to deliver prosperity to family farmers and ranchers through every season, every segment and every challenge.

“We’re not just selling inputs,” she summarizes. “We’re giving farmers and ranchers a platform — with tools, pricing transparency and support they can build a business on.”

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