Russia

Exploring the Unprecedented Fertilizer Trends of Spring 2025

Thu, 08 May 2025 21:38:28 GMT

The fertilizer market is bringing forward supply chain issues, pricing levels, and other dynamics in an unprecedented fashion.

“We came into 2025, thinking things might calm down–feel a little more steady, a little less volatile–and it’s been anything but,” says Josh Linville, vice president of fertilizer at StoneX. “Let’s just put this way, things are happening this spring we’ve never seen before.”

His top advice for farmers is stay focused on the movements in the market, be attentive and watch for opportunities.

“Farmers are not making a lot of money this year, and the forecast for 2026 doesn’t look good either,” he says. “Our natural pattern is to just stick our heads in the sand and hope it gets better. We cannot do that. Every single season, every single year, there are opportunities. Keep your head up. Keep the conversations going. Get frustrated, but don’t get so frustrated that you just shut down.”

Linville shares 5 watch points in the fertilizer market.

1. Two bright spots
Across the fertilizer industry, from the U.S. perspective, Linville sees two areas where there is some positivity in pricing: anhydrous ammonia and potash.

“Everything else has been, honestly, a little depressing,” Linville says. “Phosphate prices are sky hill. Urea prices are sky high.”

2. Sidedress pinch points
“The UAN situation is snug. We ended up having the perfect storm of events, and retailers are struggling to find any product that will ship in the month of May, and this has been going on since April,” Linville says.

He says shifts to urea for sidedress applications are being met with increased price for that product as well. So many farmers will at least look at anhydrous as an alternative.

“Farmers are resilient. They all try different things. They’ll get to the end of the road–they’ll get this thing planted, they’ll get it fertilized, they’ll get it raised,” he says.

3. Chinese exports carry major sway in the market
Whereas China previously exported between 5 and 6 million tons of year of urea, in 2024, the country exported 266,000 tons.

“It was the shock of the century,” Linville says. “And in the first quarter of 2025—January, February, March—it’s been 3,600 tons. That is not an error; I’m not missing a couple of zeroes—3600 tons. You come off a really dismal 2024, and you start ’25 this way, and the world is trying to figure out what it’s supposed to do going forward.”

Linville says he hears reports of solid Chinese stockpiles at perhaps record levels.

4. There are other urea exporters to watch
When asked if he’s worried about losing exports of urea from Iran—the world’s third biggest exporter–Linville responds, “very.”

“We spend a tremendous amount of time trying to figure out what China is going to do, and when you bring Iran into the conversation, it’s short-sighted to just reply you don’t care to buy from them,” he says. “If they shut down exports, and we lost 4.8 million tons, that’s likely losing another China.”

5. Russia and Ukraine are on the watchlist
As both key agricultural input markets, Russia and Ukraine remain at the top of the list to watch. With the recent Trump administration deal on rare earth minerals with Ukraine, Linville says this underscores where to train our eyes.
“I’m not sure just what the response from Russia is going to be,” Linville says. “That’s obviously a major, major watch point.”

In 2020, Russia and Belarus together added up to provide about 20% of the global supplies of nitrogen, phosphate and potash.

Tariffs Aren't Going To Be Our Largest Trade Issue

Wed, 08 Jan 2025 20:54:19 GMT

The most overused word in the English language since November has to be the word “tariff” as speculation runs rampant on how much a Trump 2.0 presidency will use this controversial trade negotiation tool.

Here’s a sampling, so you get the idea: “Think About Making These Purchases Before the Trump Tariffs are Enacted”, U.S. News; “U.S. Carmakers Face Rough Ride Under Trump Tariffs”, Bloomberg.com; and “Bourbon Industry Concerned About Looming Tariffs”, LEX18. You know it’s bad when tariffs threaten to make it harder to drink your troubles away!

Tariffs can disrupt almost any industry, but U.S. agriculture has already seen this movie.

During Trump’s first term, according to the USDA’s Economic Research Service, retaliatory tariffs reduced U.S. agricultural exports by $27 billion from mid-2018 when the tariffs were imposed to the end of 2019. Soybeans accounted for the majority of the decline at 71%, followed by sorghum and pork at 7% and 5%, respectively. The losses were primarily concentrated in states, such as Iowa, Illinois and Kansas, exporting these products.

As a result of ag being caught in the cross fire of a new trade war, the USDA allocated $23 billion in trade-aid payments to U.S. producers. However, the rest of the story is that the Trump administration’s tough-line trade tactics ultimately led to the China Phase I deal and record exports to China and record farm income in 2021 and 2022.

That turned out to be short-lived. Even with the Phase I deal still in place, 2024 saw a serious erosion of U.S. agricultural exports to the Chinese mainland. After reaching a high of $36.38 billion in goods in 2022, USDA ERS projected 2024’s final export tally to China was expected to come in at only $23.3 billion.

So What Exactly Went Wrong This Time Around?
One could still blame such an export freefall on some of the tariffs that are still in place. But the truth is that the U.S. is now navigating the most troubled geopolitical waters since the Cold War days of JFK and Ronald Reagan. Simply put, China and Russia—aka the old Soviet Union—are not our friends.

What should be concerning, to those in U.S. agriculture and beyond, is the influence these two countries now have over a multi-country trading alliance referred to as BRICS. That acronym is short for the Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa alliance.

The original members of BRICS held their first summit in Russia in 2009 and sought to establish themselves as a geopolitical club to counter the influence of the G7 nations: the U.S., Canada, United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy and Japan. Their agenda at that first meeting was firmly shaped by the global recession and, therefore, mostly focused on redistributing voting rights in the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in favor of the developing world. One of the most controversial statements to come out of that 2009 meeting was the calling for a new global reserve currency. From that point on, it was clear that the dominance of the U.S. dollar was being put on notice by the members of BRICS.

Today, the trading bloc is the world’s largest by population and accounts for about 37% of the world’s grain. China has been particularly aggressive in strategic moves with countries within BRICS. In 2023, Brazil was China’s largest source of agricultural imports. This movement of agricultural products accounted for more than 50% of Brazil’s total trade with China and 24.85% of China’s overall agricultural imports. No longer are U.S. farmers China’s primary source of imported soybeans or corn.

Real-Life Monopoly
Right now, China is buying up railroads in Brazil plus upgrading and expanding port facilities. Between 2007 and 2022, China invested $71.6 billion in 235 projects carried out in Brazil. The country’s investment and buying spree have been more impressive within the continent of Africa. At present, 53 out of 54 nations in Africa are part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which supports building key infrastructure projects throughout Africa, Asia and Europe. The projects intend to provide improved shipping corridors for precious raw materials and commodities. As of 2023, the two-way investment between China and its BRI partners had reached $380 billion.

If U.S. agricultural exports to China continue their decline, then it won’t be because of the “T” word. It will be because China holds a majority of railroads, utilities and low-cost properties on the world’s Monopoly board. Why buy U.S. soybeans when you can ship them from Brazil on your own railroad to your own port to your own container ship? Same goes for precious metals in Africa or oil in Russia or Iran. If you already own everything but Boardwalk and Park Place, then you don’t need the economies of the West to be involved as you plot your future livelihood.

Time To Take Control
A lot of unknowns exist as the second iteration of the Trump presidency begins. But this is clear. In 2023, the U.S. trade deficit with China was a whopping $279.4 billion. Those are the very dollars subsidizing a railroad somewhere in Brazil or a superhighway in South Africa—all to our own detriment. For the sake of our own future, we must start negotiating trade deals from a position of strength instead of begging for mercy. “Speak softly, and carry a big stick” was Teddy Roosevelt’s mantra during his time as president. When it comes to U.S. agricultural trade, we need Trump to start channeling his inner Teddy beginning Jan. 20, 2025.

Wheat Prices Rise as Frosts Damage Crops in Top Exporter Russia

Thu, 09 May 2024 18:08:42 GMT

Chicago wheat futures rose on Thursday as Russia declared a state of emergency in key grain-growing regions due to frosts, while corn and soybeans also edged up.

Three of Russia’s key grain-growing areas declared a state of emergency on Wednesday, citing May frosts that have caused severe damage to crops and will reduce this year’s harvest.

Dealers said the impact of frosts in Russia, the world’s top wheat exporter, would be closely monitored with crops entering a key period for their development.

The most-active wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) was up 1.7% at $6.45 a bushel as of 1011 GMT.

Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) bought 114,077 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that closed on Thursday.

Corn gained 0.55% to $4.61 a bushel, while soybeans rose 0.35% to $12.32 a bushel.

Argentina’s Rosario grains exchange said the leafhopper plague has ruined around 20% of the corn crop this season, while cutting its harvest estimate for 2023/24 to 47.5 million metric tons from 50 million tons.

The exchange also held its estimate for the current soybean harvest at 50.0 million tons, though it cautioned harvesting has been delayed by rains and high humidity.

China’s soybean imports in April jumped 18% from a year earlier to 8.57 million metric tons, according to the General Administration of Customs, the highest on record for April as buyers snapped up cheap and plentiful Brazilian beans.

Expectation that the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) May supply and demand and crop production reports due on Friday will show adequate supply limited the rebound.

There have been some bullish developments to spark short-covering that has driven the gains, but a USDA report due at the end of the week is expected to show a comfortable supply outlook in the United States and globally, Bergman Grains Research said.

(Additional reporting by Mei Mei Chu in Beijing; Editing by Varun H K, Subhranshu Sahu and Shounak Dasgupta)

The Untold Farmer Stories Of Ukraine: Q&A With Howard Buffett

Mon, 01 Apr 2024 17:15:15 GMT

As a farmer and global philanthropist, Howard Buffett and his namesake, The Howard G. Buffett Foundation, work where others can’t or won’t to address food insecurity, mitigate conflict, combat human trafficking and improve public safety.

After 10 trips to the front line in Ukraine (the first of which was April of 2022), Buffett shared key insights and takeaways to the attendees at the 2024 Top Producer Summit.

As Ukrainians are living day-by-day and the country’s farmers face instability in inputs, destruction of their infrastructure and the threat of landmines scattered in their fields, Buffett encourages U.S. farmers to see the threat to global food security and view this conflict through the eyes of a farmer.

Q: How do you describe your experience in Ukraine?
A: “It’s hard to imagine the amount of destruction. Many farmers lost everything they’ve had. Think about if you were to go home today and your machinery shed is completely shelled, all your equipment is burned, and you don’t know when you’re going to be able to go back in the field because there are hundreds of landmines.”

Q: How has the timing of this war affected global food security?
A: “If we didn’t have the largest corn crop we’ve ever harvested, a five-year high carryover in corn and a four-year high carryover in soybeans, and if South America didn’t have strong yields, the impact of Ukraine would be so much greater than it has been. The timing is such that we’ve avoided a serious crisis around the world with food insecurity so far, but that doesn’t mean it will stay that way.”

Q: How have you seen the support from the U.S. government show up in Ukraine?
A: “We have spent a majority of the money for Ukraine in this country in 31 states, 71 cities and 130 some production lines. We’re emptying out warehouses of ammunition that if we went to war with, we’d be surprised or disappointed with, and we’d be in trouble. I’ve been in a howitzer site, where 40% of the 155 shells firing came from the U.S. misfire, either because the ammunition is old or the electronics are corroded. We’re also replacing very old weapons systems with higher tech weapons systems, so we as the U.S. will be better prepared to fight if we have to fight.”

Q: How is the way this war is being fought different?
A: “Drones are the most important thing right now in this war. Ukraine is lacking air superiority, and that’s been a huge deficit for them and has caused a lot of casualties. The U.S. would not understand how critical drones are today if it weren’t for Ukraine. And I don’t think we’re just learning from a military standpoint; if you look at the resiliency and the commitment and the courage of Ukrainians, they’re teaching us something. After two years of the fight, sometimes you forget how it all started. This is Russia, who’s one of our biggest enemies. They would destroy America tomorrow if they could; they would take away your farm tomorrow if they could; they would take away our freedom and our democracy. They are our enemy, period.”

Q: What is the effort and timing of rebuilding?
A: “I have seen hundreds of villages in rural Ukraine that are completely leveled — there’s nothing left, there’s no families, no one can live there. They’re all mined, and you can’t even go into them. I learned a lesson in Afghanistan, seeing buildings get rebuilt, roads rebuilt in the middle of war. A Navy Seal told me, if you don’t rebuild while the war is still going on, people have no hope. If people cannot see to the future, if they cannot have any faith things are going to change, and they’re going to get better, they give up, and it gets hard to go on. So, in Ukraine, we are building schools, and we’re building police stations.”

Q: What do farmers need?
A: “As part of the Victory Harvest program, we have sent 74 combines, 84 tractors, drills and auger wagons. And so now we’ve helped get 260,000 acres of crops harvested and close to 160,000 acres planted. Some of you guys have had your own experiences with fertilizer shortages, but these farmers don’t get to buy fertilizer or walk into a bank and get an operating loan.”

There are a few groups Buffett recommends to farmers wanting to help other farmers. Farmerhood was started by a Ukrainian woman whose husband was fighting on the front line. Others include Save Ukraine and Super Humans .

Q: How can agricultural equipment be used for de-mining?
A: “There are hundreds of thousands of acres to de-mine. There are still farmers dying every week because of land mines. Our new project is to take what we know about equipment and apply it to de-mining with both verification and clearance. We’ve got about 11 acres and four bulldozers and four tractors dedicated to our testing — focused on using what we have and using GPS to map where we’ve run and verified where there are mines or not. The idea right now is to take a tracked John Deere 8360R, put a LaForge three point on it and build a protection plate with two rollers in the front and a big roller behind us. We are going to bring efficiency, safety and speed to this by taking technology and applying it in a completely different way.”

Q: What about the grain successfully grown and harvested in Ukraine?
A: “Of the wheat harvested in Ukraine this year, 28% of the crop is from occupied territories, which means Russia stole it. We’re putting out fires trying to figure out how to move grain out of the country. We’ve bought thousands of Ag Bags and are buying more. And we’re working toward structuring something to make it easier for Ukrainian farmers to move grain — but it’s not simple.”

Q: What are the consequences to U.S. agriculture if Russia wins?
A: “If Russia wins, they will export all the fertilizer and the crops they can as cheaply as they can to compete with us. And then worse than that, Russia will fuel all the conflicts so they are able to maintain control of the Black Sea.”

In his latest book , Howard Buffett documents the atrocities committed against Ukrainians, as well as their suffering, resilience and courage. “Courage of a Nation” documents the first two years of war in Ukraine following Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, and showcases a compilation of the thousands of images Buffett has captured over the 10 trips he has taken since the start of the war.

5 Trends To Watch In The Input Market

Thu, 29 Feb 2024 14:16:22 GMT

As fertilizer prices go through a seasonal spring elevation, experts are watching global dynamics to understand the market’s longer-term outlook in the U.S.

Among their top concerns are geopolitics, weather and low supply.

Possibility of Pipelines in Russia
Before Russia began invading Ukraine, they were the top global exporter of anhydrous. But due to their pipeline’s proximity to Ukraine, production plummeted.

Sam Taylor, farm inputs analyst at Rabobank, says the high prices that resulted from the loss of this pipeline aren’t expected to make another appearance.

“We saw the worst of the market really come and go,” Taylor says. “When we look to affordability, farmers should be able to reasonably feel comfortable in investing in a lot of these fertilizers.”

Josh Linville, vice president of fertilizer at StoneX, adds prices have the potential to significantly drop as Russia works on two new pipelines, one of which could come online as early as this year. However, the new route is also within reach of Ukraine and could be a potential target.

“You have a situation where the world’s largest exporter could pop up and start exporting again. Or, maybe they don’t,” Linville says.

The Israel/Hamas Conflict Continues
Another conflict with potential to impact the market is the situation between Israel and Hamas –even though Israel isn’t necessarily an area heavy in fertilizer production.

“This is one misstep away from the entire Middle East region jumping into the mix,” Linville says. “Sometimes the indirect impacts can have a foothold in the marketplace.”

Linville says the Middle East accounts for 51% of global urea exports and even a small reduction in supply could cause a scare and make prices jump.

China’s Unpredictability
Higher prices could also result from China–a major exporter of nitrogen–who has placed new restrictions, Those new restrictions could mean 40% less exports from the country.

“Right now, we’re going ahead with the idea that the Chinese are going to restrict exports,” Linville says. “They’re going to lower that number and that’s going to help keep prices a little bit more elevated.”

Taylor shares while tight supply may be in the near term, the longer outlook may be more positive.

“We anticipate the bulk of the exports from the Chinese market are likely to come in the second half of this year, which ultimately means a semblance of tightness in the North American market and also the global markets for the first half,” Taylor says. “There is room for optimism in the second half of this year as we look forward into 2025 to potentially see some downward pricing dynamics.”

With this in mind, Linville says it’s nearly impossible to predict what China will do, and there’s a chance the restrictions could be lifted at any time.

“The government continues to step in, play a bigger role and have a heavier hand on what happens and what doesn’t happen,” he says. “We’re watching very closely. Are they going to further restrict exports? Are they going to loosen up a little bit? We don’t know.”

The Weather Forecast
Domestically, water levels continue to be top of mind.

“The Mississippi River is an artery for our transit. When it suffers, we suffer,” Linville explains. “This is the most liquid point of fertilizer trade in the North American marketplace.

Linville says that while the Mississippi is in good shape for now, the Northern Plains have the potential to slow down the water flow due to the below-average level of snowfall they’ve received this year.

High Levels of Fall Fertilizer Applications
U.S. fertilizer applications from fall 2023 are also expected have a lasting effect on spring supply, and according to Linville, the short turnaround time between fall and spring fertilizer applications makes it difficult to restock an adequate amount of inventory.

“When we look at anhydrous, it was the third best application we’ve seen since 2000. Inventories have been drawn down very low,” he says. “You get about 90 days for the system to rebuild. There is not enough pipeline capacity, rail capacity, truck capacity or barge capacity to get the system rebuilt.”

Until inventory is rebuilt, elevated spring prices for anhydrous, phosphate and potash can be expected.

“High prices are the manufacturer’s way of saying ‘I can’t meet demand, and I am trying to shock you and scare you into using urea, UAN or something else because I can’t balance yesterday,’” Linville says.

Taylor adds while tightness in the input market isn’t quick to correct itself, next year could bring better availability.

“The current market environment still incentivizes imports into the North American market,” he says. “There should be room for inventory to build up into 2025.”

Senate Votes to Limit Foreign Land Ownership

Wed, 26 Jul 2023 20:24:53 GMT

Roughly 37.6 million acres of U.S. ag land is foreign owned, according to USDA. The majority of these deeds are held by Canada, Netherlands, Italy, United Kingdom, Germany and China. However, select purchases of U.S. land could come to an end following a Senate vote this week.

The U.S. Senate on Tuesday voted 91-7 in favor of an amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act of 2024 that, if made law, would prohibit China, Russia, North Korea and Iran from purchasing U.S. land.

Also included in the amendment is a requirement for the president to submit a report to Congress on any waiver granted to a prohibited country.

Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.), who helped push the legislative changes, says the time for foreign landownership action is now.

“These four adversaries view America as their top competitor and only wish to gain advantage and opportunities to surveil our nation’s capabilities and resources,” says Rounds. “This commonsense provision will make our homeland more secure.”

The amendments will now make their way to the House floor. If the House majority votes in favor of the provisions, they will become law.

What's the Biggest Threat to Global Grain Supplies? It's Actually Russia's Exports, Not Ukraine

Tue, 25 Jul 2023 14:58:19 GMT

Russia continues to ramp up attacks on Ukrainian ports on the River Danube. Local officials say more than 60,000 metric tons of grain have been destroyed in the past week while also crippling grain storage infrastructure.

Grain prices continue to rally in the U.S., with wheat futures closing limit up on Monday. That opened the door for expanding trading limits on Tuesday. However, agricultural economists and markets analysts point out the situation still hasn’t reached a worst-case scenario yet.

Since Russia put a halt to the UN brokered grain deal last week, the Danube is a key export route, and the grain facilities under attack are located across the river from Romania, a NATO member.

According to John Payne, after Russia targeted Odesa over the weekend, there’s one last port in Ukraine currently open, which is Izmail. He says the port is located extremely west, almost in Romania. Payne says Russia also targeted Izmail over the weekend, but to a lesser degree with grain continuing to move from that location.

“This represents close to 25% of what they are able to export,” says Payne of hEDGEpoint Global Markets. “Fifty percent goes out of Odesa, which is now closed. The last 25% leaves over land, but keep in mind the countries around Ukraine don’t want this supply because it will hurt their own farmers.”

Not only are ports being targeted, but Russia’s defense ministry said last week Russia would deem all ships traveling to Ukrainian ports to be potential carriers of military cargo. The escalation could cause shipping insurance rates to climb, another threat to moving grain out of Ukraine.

“The problem is shipping,” says Payne. Insurance companies are not going to insure vessels in the Black Sea anymore after Putin said they could be fired upon. That leaves the friendly ports in the West Black Sea, often called CVB (Contstana, Varga, Bugas). They are going to try and rail grain there, but it’s hard to get it there and expensive.”

What’s the Worst-Case Scenario for Black Sea Grain Supplies?

So, what would be worst case? The July Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor , a survey of nearly 60 ag economists from across the U.S., recently asked economists to share their views on what are some potential factors that could shape agriculture over the next 12 months but aren’t currently being discussed or highlighted enough. The survey was completed just days before Russia pulled out of the grain deal, but one economist was already concerned about an escalation.

“The current assumption is that the Ukraine grain initiative will stop, but that Ukraine will work with Turkey and the UN to continue shipments,” said the ag economist in the anonymous survey. “What happens if Russia strikes a ship, but then Ukraine strikes back by hitting an outbound ship carrying Russian wheat or crude oil? Maybe a low risk, but massive implications for the commodity markets if commodities coming out of Russia slow or halt. And two, what if an ‘accidental’ war breaks out between U.S. and China in the South China Sea, bringing a halt to commodity trade with China?”

The concern may seem extreme, but after the escalation over the past week, it seems to be a possibility. This past weekend on U.S. Farm Report, Payne said when you look at the global balance sheets, the loss of the Ukraine crop, at least the export terminals, isn’t a huge deal. He says what could be a huge deal is a lack of any commercial shipments in the Black Sea.

“The biggest question in all of this is what happens to Russia shipments,” says Payne. “Russians feed a lot of the poorer countries as well as float a lot of oil from the ports in the Black Sea. Our worry is what happens if those stop? All of the sudden the hungry of the world will come for U.S., EU and South American supply. Thankfully, the Brazilians have it now, but prices need to keep going to incentivize supply growth.”

Russia’s Grain Supply

Payne says the following Bloomberg charts show Russia’s weekly grain exports compared to Ukraine’s weekly exports. Ukraine’s grain exports tanked once Russia invaded Ukraine, increased after the grain deal was brokered, but then have seen another sharp decline since May. That compares to Russia where grain exports reached record levels in July before seeing a sharp drop.

DuWayne Bosse, of Bolt Marketing out of South Dakota, says the trade talk overnight Tuesday was that barges are still being loaded at Ukrainian ports despite the recent attacks. He says there’s also talk that Ukraine may attack Russia’s Kerch Bridge, which is the passageway for nearly half of Russia’s wheat exports.

The potential strike to Russia’s exports is one that Chip Nellinger, Blue Reef Agri-Marketing, also discussed on U.S. Farm Report this weekend. He says the commodity markets already knew there would be a massive drop in Ukraine’s production this year compared to a year ago.

“In my mind, it’s more about Russia, and they supposedly have a big crop,” says Nellinger. “That Black Sea grain corridor probably benefited Russia as much as much as it did Ukraine. And now if that’s going to really slow, and there’s been talk that Russia is going to keep some of that wheat off the market for an internal supply reserve, so to speak.”

Nellinger says bigger picture, the question is if Russia will continue to supply the world now that the Black Sea is closed, and he says India and China have been big benefactors of Russia’s grain.

Ag economists were also asked to provide their thoughts on the top three factors that could impact trade relations between the U.S. and China. Several economists responded that one of the biggest factors will be China’s support for Russia.

Moscow Halts Grain Deal After Bridge to Crimea Struck

Mon, 17 Jul 2023 15:36:18 GMT

Russia halted participation on Monday in the year-old U.N.-brokered deal that lets Ukraine export grain through the Black Sea, just hours after a blast knocked out Russia’s bridge to Crimea in what Moscow called a strike by Ukrainian sea drones.

Russia said two civilians were killed and their daughter wounded in what Moscow cast as a terrorist attack on the road bridge, a major artery for Russian troops fighting in Ukraine.

The Kremlin said there was no link between the attack and its decision to suspend the grain deal, over what it called a failure to meet its demands to implement a parallel agreement easing rules for its own food and fertilizer exports.

“In fact, the Black Sea agreements ceased to be valid today,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on a conference call. “Unfortunately, the part of these Black Sea agreements concerning Russia has not been implemented so far, so its effect is terminated.”

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, the grain deal’s sponsor, said he still believed Putin wanted it to continue. The Russian and Turkish foreign ministers would talk later on Monday, he told reporters.

“I hope that with this discussion, we can make some progress and continue on our way without a pause,” Erdogan said.

Russia’s foreign ministry said it would consider rejoining the grain deal if it saw “concrete results” on its demands.

The blast on the road bridge to Crimea could have a direct impact on Moscow’s ability to supply its troops in southern Ukraine, and reveals the vulnerability of Russia’s own Black Sea infrastructure to devices such as seaborne drones: small, fast remote-controlled boats packed with explosives.

Images showed a section of the road bridge had come down and traffic was halted in both directions, although a parallel railway bridge was still operational. Blasts were reported before dawn on the 19-km (12-mile) bridge, which Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered built after seizing and annexing the peninsula from Ukraine in 2014.

Kyiv gave no official account of the blasts but Ukrainian media quoted unidentified officials as saying Ukraine’s Security Service was behind it. Ukraine has long maintained that the bridge was built illegally, and its use by Russia for military supplies makes it a legitimate target. It was last hit by a massive explosion and fire in October.

Russia’s suspension of the Black Sea grain deal could drive up food prices across the globe, especially in the poorest countries. Ukraine and Russia are both among the world’s biggest exporters of grain and other foodstuffs.

The grain deal was hailed as preventing a global food emergency when it was brokered by the United Nations and Turkey last year, halting a de facto blockade of Ukrainian ports by Russia, which agreed to let ships pass after inspections in Turkey.

Global commodity food prices rose on Monday, though the increase was limited, suggesting traders did not yet anticipate a severe supply crisis. The Chicago Board of Trade’s most active wheat Wv1 contract was up 3.0% at $6.81-3/4 a bushel at 1056 GMT after earlier rising over 4%.

Putin had threatened last week to walk out of the grain deal, while also saying Russia could return to it if its demands were met.

“We can suspend our participation in the deal, and if everyone once again says that all the promises made to us will be fulfilled, then let them fulfil this promise. We will immediately rejoin this deal,” Putin said last week.

Western countries say Russia is trying to use its leverage over the grain deal to weaken financial sanctions, which do not apply to Russia’s agricultural exports.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen described Russia’s suspension of the agreement as a “cynical move” and said the EU would continue to try to secure food for poor countries.

WITHOUT RUSSIA?

Russia has agreed three times in the past year to extend the Black Sea deal, despite repeatedly threatening to walk out. It suspended participation after an attack on its fleet by seaborne Ukrainian drones in October, leading to a few days when Ukraine, Turkey and the United Nations kept exports going under the deal without Moscow.

Denys Marchuk, deputy head of the Ukrainian Agrarian Council, the main agribusiness organisation in Ukraine, said seaborne exports could proceed again without Russian agreement.

“If there will be safety guarantees from our partners, then why not conduct the grain initiative without Russia’s participation?” he told Reuters.

Any such resumption of Ukrainian sea exports without Russia’s blessing would probably depend on insurers. Industry sources told Reuters they were studying whether to freeze their coverage.

“Some underwriters will look to take advantage with a hefty increase in rates. Others will stop offering cover. The (key) question is whether Russia mines the area which would effectively cease any form of cover being offered,” one insurance industry source said.

The latest blast on Russia’s bridge to Crimea follows months of Ukrainian strikes on Russian supply lines as Kyiv pursues a counteroffensive to drive Russian forces out of its territory.

Unverified imagery showed a section of road on the bridge had split and was listing to one side, with metal barriers buckled. Dash cam footage showed drivers braking sharply shortly after the incident.

Russian officials said a Russian Su-25 fighter-bomber crashed into the Sea of Azov on Monday, but the pilot ejected successfully and there was no indication of an attack. The bridge to Crimea spans the mouth of the sea.

The Ukrainian counteroffensive, which began last month, has so far been slow going, capturing a string of small hamlets in the south and some territory around Bakhmut, the small eastern city Russia captured in May after the war’s deadliest combat. Kyiv said on Monday its forces had captured another 18 sq km of territory over the past week, bringing the total captured to more than 210 sq km.

(Reporting by Lidia Kelly in Melbourne, Guy Faulconbridge in Moscow, Max Hunder in Kyiv and Reuters bureau; Writing by Peter Graff; Editing by Philippa Fletcher)

USDA Allegedly Impacted by Russian-Speaking Hackers

Thu, 22 Jun 2023 17:04:38 GMT

USDA is investigating a possible data breach related to a broader hack of U.S. government agencies.

Officials in the Ag department say the data breach allegedly involves a contractor and impacts a small number of workers—roughly 30, which is a small pool considering USDA employees 100,000 people.

According to USDA, Russian-speaking hackers are the likely suspects and the department will contact and provide support to anyone affected.

The Office of Personnel Management and two organizations within the Department of Energy also were apparently targeted or breached.

What Could the Ukraine Dam Explosion Mean for Global Ag Markets?

Thu, 08 Jun 2023 18:34:45 GMT

Farmers in Ukraine are assessing the damage after major dam explosion in the southeastern part of the country, which has been occupied by Russia.

The critical Nova Kakhovka dam and hydroelectric power station sits on the Dnipro River. Ukraine accused Russian forces of blowing up the dam while Russian officials blame Ukrainian bombardment for it in the contested area.

According to the Ukrainian military, the incident occurred on Tuesday, June 6 at 2:50 a.m. local time (which is Monday, June 4 at 7:50 p.m, eastern time.)

Its destruction raised anxiety about potential disruption to global grain supplies pushing up some prices around the world. For example, wheat prices surged at one point up 3%.

“During the course of the evening and night when that news came out the market was up sharply. But as the day wore on, we’ve slipped back into negative territory,” says Chuck Shelby, Risk Management Commodities. “It just seems that this war continues to go on, and the market makes a reaction but doesn’t know what to make of it. World buyers have not been showing up as we would like to see.”

There are massive agricultural fields in the southern part of Ukraine where that dam burst. The collapse as endangered crops and the country’s breadbasket and threatened drinking water supplies with officials also warning of a looming environmental disaster pointing to oil escaping from the dam machinery and significant flooding.

This comes amid word that Ukraine’s ag output is expected to decline by 36% this year, compared to 2021. The estimated costs for the eventual reconstruction of Ukraine’s agricultural sector has now reached around $411 billion.

“In the long run, I do believe, though, that the production out of Ukraine as this war intensifies during the summer is certainly not going to be what it was,” Shelby says. “And how much grain gets exported out of country is going to continue to decline.”

Ag Trade Between Russia and China Increased to 153% in April

Tue, 30 May 2023 15:01:20 GMT

Russia and China are looking to increase their trade in ag goods, with Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin stating that Russian farmers are prepared to significantly increase exports to China.

Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng also expressed China’s interest in enhancing industrial and agricultural cooperation with Russia. These comments were made during a bilateral business forum held in Shanghai.

Boom in Ag Trade Between Russia and China

Amid growing international isolation over the war in Ukraine, Russia is seeking to deepen its trade ties with China, which has refrained from joining the U.S.-led sanctions against Russia. This situation has led to a boom in trade between the two nations, with Beijing’s purchases of energy and aluminum surging due to sanctions restricting supplies to the West. Furthermore, China’s exports to Russia reached a record high in April, amounting to $9.6 billion, a 153% increase from a year earlier.

Related story: Why is China Suddenly Canceling Purchases of U.S. Corn?

While the western sanctions do not directly target food and fertilizers, there is considerable potential in these sectors. During the forum, wheat and meat shipments were reportedly on the agenda. This comes at a time when China is aiming to reduce its import reliance on crops like soybeans, primarily sourced from Brazil and the US, and needed to feed its substantial pork herds.

China’s Slow Transition to Russian Ag

Over the past year, China has increased its purchases of food items from Russia. For instance, Russian edible oils, primarily sunflower and rapeseed oils, constituted a quarter of China’s total imports in the first four months of the year, up from 13% a year earlier.

Related story: 5 Fundamentals That Could Still Rally Wheat Prices

However, wheat is an exception to China’s increased buying from Russia, Bloomberg points out. Despite a surge in wheat imports by over 60% to about 6 million tons in the first four months of the year, Russia only supplied 30,000 tons. Despite Beijing’s announcement last year that it would allow wheat imports from all parts of Russia, trade has been impeded by issues like phytosanitary regulations, transportation challenges, and geographic constraints. The primary wheat-growing area in Russia is located in the south, near the Black Sea, a considerable distance from China.

BREAKING: Black Sea Grain Deal Extended for Two Months

Wed, 17 May 2023 17:35:53 GMT

The Ukraine Black Sea grain deal has been extended for two more months, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said on Wednesday, one day before Russia could have quit the pact over obstacles to its grain and fertilizer exports.

The flow of ships through the corridor had been grinding to a halt during the last few days with the deal apparently set to expire on Thursday.

Earlier on Wednesday, the last remaining ship registered to travel through the corridor had left a Ukrainian port. U.N. data showed the DSM Capella had left the Ukrainian port of Chornomorsk carrying 30,000 tonnes of corn and was on its way to Turkey.

“The Black Sea grain corridor deal has been extended by two months with the efforts of Turkey,” Erdogan said in a televised speech, also thanking the Russian and Ukrainian leaders and U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres for their help.

A spokeswoman for Russia’s Foreign Ministry said they would be commenting later on the reported extension.

The United Nations and Turkey brokered the Black Sea deal for an initial 120 days in July last year to help tackle a global food crisis that has been aggravated by Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, one of the world’s leading grain exporters.

Moscow agreed to extend the Black Sea pact for a further 120 days in November, but then in March it agreed to a 60-day extension - until May 18 - unless a list of demands regarding its own agricultural exports was met.

Open Questions

To convince Russia in July to allow Black Sea grain exports, the United Nations agreed at the same time to help Moscow with its own agricultural shipments for three years.

“There are still a lot of open questions regarding our part of the deal. Now a decision will have to be taken,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Tuesday.

Asked on Wednesday about how the talks were progressing, Peskov told a briefing he would not enter into “hypothetical discussions” on what Russia would do if the grain deal lapsed.

Senior officials from Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the U.N. met in Istanbul last week to discuss the Black Sea pact.

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said last week he thought the deal could be extended for at least two more months.

While Russian exports of food and fertiliser are not subject to Western sanctions imposed following the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Moscow says restrictions on payments, logistics and insurance have amounted to a barrier to shipments.

The United States has rejected Russia’s complaints. U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Linda Thomas-Greenfield said last week: “It is exporting grain and fertilizer at the same levels, if not higher, than before the full scale invasion.”

Officials from Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the U.N. make up a Joint Coordination Centre (JCC) in Istanbul, which implements the Black Sea export deal. They authorise and inspect ships. No new vessels have been authorised by the JCC since May 4.

Authorised ships are inspected by JCC officials near Turkey before travelling to a Ukrainian Black Sea port via a maritime humanitarian corridor to collect their cargo and return to Turkish waters for a final inspection.

In an excerpt of a letter seen by Reuters last month, Russia told its JCC counterparts that it would not approve any new vessels to take part in the Black Sea deal unless the transits would be done by May 18 - “the expected date of ... closure”.

It said this was “to avoid commercial losses and prevent possible safety risks” after May 18.

Some 30.3 million tonnes of grain and foodstuffs have been exported from Ukraine under the Black Sea deal, including 625,000 tonnes in World Food Programme vessels for aid operations in Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, and Yemen.

(Additional reporting by David Ljunggren and Nigel Hunt; Writing by Michelle Nichols and Gareth Jones; Editing by Daren Butler, Mark Potter and Alison Williams)

Kansas Winter Wheat Crop Crippled by Drought that Covers 80% of the State

Tue, 18 Apr 2023 17:24:35 GMT

The drought situation across much of the Plains hasn’t improved this year; instead, the latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows it’s growing worse. Now, farmers across a state that typically accounts for 25% of the total winter wheat production in the U.S. are staring at a bleak picture for crop prospects this year.

Doug Keesling farms near Lyons, Kan. He would typically be planting spring crops in April, but because it’s so dry, he’s playing the waiting game and needing a little moisture before he plants.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor released on Thursday shows 43% of the state is seeing the most severe level of drought. While some parts of the state are seeing the intense drought conditions, the dryness is extremely variable across the state.

“It’s amazing. If you go 30 miles east of me, it’s wetter than it is here. But if you go from here towards southwest Kansas, it’s as dry here as it is there, which is not what we’re used to,” says Keesling. “It’s been dry like this for almost a year.”

He says the variation in winter wheat crop conditions across even his own county is proof about how variable drought conditions are across the state.

“There was a lot of wheat that went in after fall crops, like after corn or soybeans, that did not germinate until later in the winter, because it was so dry,” he says. “Matter of fact, we had some wheat, that in severe cases, did not germinate until January or February when there was a light snow.”

USDA’s Crop Progress released on Monday showed 61% of the Kansas wheat crop is rated as being in poor to very poor condition.

For the week ending April 9, 2023, there were 6.6 days suitable for fieldwork, according to @USDA_NASS. Winter wheat condition rated 33% very poor, 28% poor, 26% fair, 12% good, and 1% excellent. Winter wheat jointed was 17%, near 19% last year and 20% for the five year average. pic.twitter.com/T2ZezFNiIY
— KansasWheat (@KansasWheat) April 10, 2023

Kansas Wheat says farmers across much of the state are worried about their wheat crop.

“Wheat is a pretty resilient crop, so it can hold on in some dry conditions. But especially as you get closer to southwest Kansas, a lot of it just didn’t emerge in the fall,” says Marsha Boswell, vice president of communications for Kansas Wheat. “Coming out of dormancy, it needs some moisture to start growing again, and it’s just not receiving any of the moisture that it needs.”

Back-to-Back Years of Drought

Boswell says while many farmers struggled through dry conditions last year, it’s the back-to-back years of dry weather that have been such a sharp blow to crops.

“Last year we were in a long-term drought, but what the difference is from last year is that subsoil moisture now is completely depleted. So last year in the drought, the wheat could pull from some of that subsoil moisture and go ahead and make a plant. It hasn’t been replenished, and there’s just no subsoil moisture there to pull from now.”

With sporadic chances of rain this weekend, many growers are holding onto hope at least some moisture will bring the crop out of such sluggish conditions. For some, it may already be too late.

“I was out and about and went to some areas in western Kansas, and I was told at that time that if they could get some moisture in the next week or two, this crop could pull out of this a little bit, but we haven’t seen that,” Boswell says.

The Wheat Quality Council will hold its annual wheat tour across Kansas in mid-May, a time when maturing wheat will give farmers and others a better estimate of the quality and quantity of this year’s crop.

“I think as we get farther to the west and up and around Colby that first night, and then that second day where we go from Colby to Wichita and through southwest Kansas, we’re really going to see some tough conditions and some abandoned fields,” Boswell says.

Snapshot of National Winter Wheat Crop Conditions

Nationally, USDA’s Crop Progress report showed only 27% of the country’s winter wheat crop is rated good to excellent.

“This is probably one of our weakest crop progress reports for conditions in 40 years,” says Ben Brown, agricultural economics Extension specialist for the University of Missouri. “I mean, this is tied with 1996 in some states, and 1996 was a pretty poor year for wheat producers.”

University of Missouri Extension economist Ben Brown says the eastern half of the country is seeing strong wheat conditions, with more farmers in states like Illinois, Ohio and Michigan potentially taking that crop to harvest instead of only using the wheat as a cover crop during the winter months.

“On the other side of the scale, I wouldn’t be surprised to see some pretty strong abandonment in places like the panhandle of Texas, Oklahoma, and southwest Kansas,” says Brown. “Just too poor of conditions. Maybe there will be the opportunity to plant another crop in there and hope for some rainfall later in the season.”

Possible High Abandonment of U.S. Winter Wheat

Keesling isn’t sure how much of his crop will need to be abandoned, as he says it’s just too early to know. Across the state, severely drought-stricken fields aren’t showing much promise, and the likelihood is growing that more winter wheat fields won’t be harvested this year.

“I think there’s no question there’s going to be some abandonment, probably higher than in a lot of years, because the wheat just isn’t up and it’s not growing,” says Boswell.

What makes that reality so hard is the current price of wheat, even if some question whether today’s prices truly reflect how bad this winter wheat crop really is.

“I think there’s an understanding that yes, we’re dealing with less room to spare here, if you will, but we’ve still got a pretty healthy global wheat picture, even with some of these challenges here in the United States. And then certainly with the continued challenges in the Black Sea Region,” says Brown. “So, understanding all those conditions, as well as kind of what’s weighing on some of this market a little bit.”

The Black Sea Wild Card

The future of the Black Sea Grain Initiative is currently very murky. The Russian ag minister says Russia won’t renew the grain deal until the West’s sanctions on Russian food and fertilizer are lifted.

According to Farm Journal Washington Correspondent Jim Wiesemeyer, senior Russian diplomat Mikhail Ulyanov commented on the situation on Friday, saying the West still has time to remove “obstacles” hindering the implementation of the Black Sea grain deal before a deadline set for May 18.

“Every time we’ve seen this kind of come around, and these flares that it doesn’t look like the grain deal is getting renewed, we’ve seen a 25- to 50-cent rally in the wheat market. And that’s just kind of the nature of the game right now,” says Brown.

Focus on Producing a Crop Through the Drought

As Kansas farmers work to provide the wheat needed for the rest of the world, Keesling says the reality is tough, but the drought hasn’t completely wiped out hope of producing at least some type of crop this year.

“Farmers, as a whole, have a lot of faith that there will be rain,” he says. “And so, I’m trying to be as optimistic as I can be even though sometimes some of these crop conditions behind us don’t always look it. We have faith that we will get rain and that something will turn around.”

What’s the Latest with the Black Sea Grain Deal?

Mon, 17 Apr 2023 17:38:19 GMT

Wheat and corn exports out of the Black Sea region are at risk again. Ukrainian officials say Russia’s recent actions to block inspections of ships under the Black Sea grain initiative means the grain deal is facing a murky future. That’s as the area was still able to see record wheat exports over the past year, despite the war, largely thanks to the grain deal ensuring grain exports continued to flow out of the area.

According to Farm Journal Washington correspondent Jim Wiesemeyer, the situation is growing more tense. Wiesemeyer says Ukraine’s restoration ministry is now saying the Black Sea grain initiative is in danger of being shut down after Russia again blocked inspections of ships under the deal.

“For the second time in nine months of operation of the Grain Initiative, an inspection plan has not been drawn up, and not a single vessel has been inspected. This threatens the functioning of the Grain Initiative,” the restoration ministry said.

Wiesemeyer reports Russia is now saying an extension of the deal is “still not that rosy,” as it reiterated the need to improve conditions for exports of its grains and fertilizers. More in Russia/Ukraine section.

Russia Blames the West

The recent developments come as earlier this month, the Russian ag minister says Russia won’t renew the grain deal until the West’s sanctions on Russian food and fertilizer are lifted. Even senior Russian diplomat Mikhail Ulyanov commented on the situation on Friday, saying the West still has time to remove “obstacles” hindering the implementation of the Black Sea grain deal before a deadline set for May 18.

Upcoming Crop at Risk

If You Think US Fertilizer Prices are High, Canadian Farmers Are Stuck With Surprising Fertilizer Tax

Tue, 28 Mar 2023 20:50:59 GMT

As Ontario, Canada farmer Julie Maw scouts her wheat fields, it’s the moment of truth for the record number of acres planted across the province this year.

“There’s some brown, but there’s a lot of green,” says Maw, as she digs up wheat to check the roots. “It’s a solid consistency, so I think it’ll make it.”

The soft red winter wheat crop is breaking dormancy across the region, and this year, farmers are uncovering fields with promising yield potential.

“It has some good roots, considering the winter,” Maw says.

The crop looks strong, which comes as a surprise to Maw and other area farmers.

“We haven’t seen much rainfall,” says Maw, who says last year’s crops struggled due to dry weather. “We have a lack of snow, a lack of freezing temperatures. It’s going to have an impact, I think, unless the clouds open up between now and planting. Hopefully it’s just not during planting.”

Maw and her husband, Kyle, are the third generation on their Lambton County farm. In addition to the ground they farm, the Maws have a seed business and do some custom farming work. Just this year, Maw became one of two females to ever serve on the Grain Farmers of Ontario (GFO) board of directors. All the various hats Maw wears from day to day are also what allows her to keep a pulse on agriculture beyond what she can see on their farm.

Lately, the buzz from farmers is about the uncertainty of what to plant this year, especially with high input prices.

“Last year was a tough year with input costs the way they were,” Maw says. “It wasn’t just seed that was expensive, but fertilizer was expensive, gas was expensive. People saw that fluctuation and that increase, and the larger scale farms can muffle that a little bit easier than our smaller farms. Some are waiting until spring to put in those orders because of availability of income.”

Maw says that’s a shift from the past five years, when farmers were eager to put in seed and input orders to save with early discounts. However, that changed this year, and it all has to do with concerns about prices and available cash.

Crosby Devitt, CEO of GFO, understands the angst, as he says the risk tied to this year’s crop is high.

“Going into spring, farmers probably have more invested in their crop in 2023 than they’ve ever had in their entire career of farming,” Devitt says.

Brendan Byrne farms in Essex County, Ontario, but he’s also the current chair of GFO. When we talked to Byrne a year ago, fertilizer availability was an issue. Russia had recently invaded Ukraine, which posed problems getting vessels into Canada. The uncertainty was high, but a year later, Byrne says fertilizer availability across Canada has improved. The bad news for farmers is fertilizer prices are still high.

“We were able to get the supply in last year, it was very tight, but those boats that arrived had to pay a fertilizer tax tariff when Russia lost its ‘most favored nation’ status for Canada. We were hoping that [the tax tariff] would be worked out between fertilizer companies and the government, but it ended up not being done,” Byrne says.

The fertilizer tax was imposed after many farmers had already paid for their fertilizer for the year. With the new policy put into place, it meant any vessel coming into Canada from Russia got taxed. The fertilizer tax was then passed on to farmers, which Byrne says came as a shock to many.

“After crops were planted, tariff bills arrived for farmers to then pay,” Byrne says. “[GFO is] still trying to work with the federal government to get that money back into farmers’ pockets.”

That fertilizer tariff is still in place on any products from Russia, but buyers have been able to source products from other countries, for now.

“They have said if supply is very tight, they might have to bring in a ship. [GFO is] still trying to rectify the tariff situation.”

John Phipps: If China Sides With Russia, The Move Could Cost U.S. Farmers Beyond Trade

Mon, 06 Mar 2023 23:11:10 GMT

At one year, I think it realistic to label the Ukraine War a quagmire, with no obvious end. Until recently, China , or perhaps more accurately, Xi Jinping, has been unclear on what involvement it intended.

Last week, a German newspaper reported he was considering supplying lethal weaponry, starting with dual-use weapons like drones but possibly following conventional military materiel. While the report is unconfirmed, it was credible enough the U.S. warned China of serious consequences.

Russia badly needs to replace expended and outdated Soviet arms while China needs Russian energy. That is compelling math. This is bad news not just for the heroic people of Ukraine, but Europe and the US.

Lethal weapons are a red line diplomatically and strategically. China’s massive industrial complex can easily outproduce the combined Western Alliance in sheer numbers of conventional weapons. It will become contentious political issue as Republican support for Ukraine is dropping and their admiration of strong-man dictatorships like Victor Orban of Hungary grows.

Related Story: Battle For Ukraine: The Untold Farming, People And Infrastructure Stories From The Front Lines

Meanwhile, anti-China sentiment on the right has been intense for years so that an emerging China-Russia Axis will be a pick-a-side moment. U.S. agriculture has much to lose. Grain sales are less worrisome in my opinion due to the infamous bathtub theory of commodity flows.

The almost certain stronger sanctions on Chinese trade that would follow will pressure our flexibility to reroute supply lines. Planter upgrades and combine repairs are already hobbled by ordinary steel castings and machinery tracks as we discover, often to our surprise, where stuff really comes from.

Our business with China is largely for such mundane, low profit components far more than complex technology. While I believe this would be a major geopolitical blunder for China and Russia, our economic and political systems will be tested. Our ties with partners like Japan and Europe and neighbors like Canada and Mexico will be critical.

For my money, Putin and Ukraine in 2022 have too many similarities with Hitler and Czechoslovakia in 1939. Any decision by China to ally with an invader will change Sino-American relations and commerce radically.

Is Russia's Threat to Nix Black Sea Grain Deal a Potential Ploy to Push Wheat Prices Higher?

Fri, 03 Mar 2023 18:23:36 GMT

Russia is now saying it will only extend its Black Sea grain deal if sanctions are lifted on its own agricultural products. The deal, which was brokered last year, allowed for safe passage of Ukrainian ag products.

As first reported by Reuters, Moscow says payment, insurance, and other restrictions are “barriers” to exporting its products, including products such as fertilizer.

The grain deal is set to expire on March 18. Turkey and the UN helped broker the original grain deal in 2022, and with chances that Russia will not renew the deal, the news sent wheat prices higher on Thursday.

Could the threat of no grain deal turn into reality, which would hinder the flow of grain from that area? Brian Grete, editor of Pro Farmer, says it could, but he also says this isn’t a surprising move by Russia.

Related Content: One Year After Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: How Has World Trade Realigned?

“They have record exports planned for wheat the second half of the marketing year, and so it would behoove them to talk up wheat prices if they could, just with the amount of exports going out,” says Grete. “I think this will go down to the 11th hour, the same as it did in November, and we’ll get an extension to the deal. It’s a matter of whether it’s another 120 days, or whether it’s a year as Ukraine wants. And when all said and done, though I do think the extension will be granted, and Russia will probably get a few things they’re demanding, we aren’t going to lift the sanctions from the West.”

Ukraine is asking for the new grain deal to be extended to a year. Reports currently show Ukraine exports nearly 3 million tonnes of agricultural products a month under the agreement. However, Ukraine is asking for additional ports to be added under the deal. Ukraine’s Deputy Minster for Communities, Territories and Infrastructure Development says the country could double that amount if ports in Odesa Oblast are included, and up to 8 million tonnes if Mykolaiv is added to the agreement.

Related Content: Battle For Ukraine: The Untold Farming, People And Infrastructure Stories From The Front Lines

One Year After Russia's Invasion of Ukraine: How Has World Trade Realigned?

Fri, 24 Feb 2023 19:58:10 GMT

A year ago, Russia’s initial invasion of Ukraine injected uncertainty about global grain supplies into the market. As questions swirled surrounding the amount of grain Ukraine would be able to produce and export last year, the invasion sparked a bullish run in grain prices with prices ultimately hitting a new record last year. Today, initial concerns about world grain supplies and exports have been squashed by the reality of record exports out of the Black Sea Region.

The initial invasion news one year ago quickly sent wheat prices skyrocketing 50 cents in one day, and corn prices shot up 30 cents after the initial news. Crude oil also hit the highest level since 2014, soaring above $100 per barrel.

At the time, Dan Basse of AgResource Company said the chaos and uncertainty between the two major grain producers would cause a “realignment of world trade,” especially considering the two countries accounted for:

31% of world wheat trade
30% of world barley trade
29% of sunflower oil trade

At the time, Basse cautioned there were still several questions after the initial invasion, including timeline and potential sanctions that could follow. A year later, the war is ongoing, yet exports from the region are not only holding strong, but hitting record levels.

“I don’t think any of us would have imagined when the war started a year ago that we would have record wheat exports out of the Black Sea,” Basse says. “Now, principally, it’s a lot of Russia exporting 45 million or 46 million tonnes. As an analyst, I would not have thought that part of the world would have record exports of grain and wheat in a time of war. Nonetheless, that’s what’s happened.”

Basse points out Russia produced a very large crop last year. He says you can argue whether it was 92 million or 102 million tonnes of wheat, but it doesn’t change the fact Russia is sitting on a big crop. Until Europe starts planting the new crop in May and the focus shifts the weather’s impact on that crop, the scenario of large wheat stocks won’t change.

“Here today, Russia is not missing a bit, and it’s a problem because world milling prices is now trading over Gulf corn, so we’re going to be losing some corn export demand just because of the cheapness of wheat,” says Basse.

Diesel Prices Up 78¢ from January 2022

Tue, 07 Feb 2023 14:14:11 GMT

According to the Energy Information Administration , the average U.S. price of diesel ran $4.62 a gal. in the week that ended Jan. 30, up 78¢ from a year earlier. On the East Coast, diesel sold for $4.84 on average, a 98¢ annual jump.

Will Electric Vehicles Actually Drive Down Prices at the Pump?

Meanwhile, Europe has announced a ban on Russian diesel fuel and other refined oil products--a move that will further curb its own energy dependence on Russian energy, while attempting to limit Russia’s gains from it’s energy sector. The ban allows for a 55-day grace period for diesel loaded on tankers prior to Sunday.

The move comes shortly after G7 countries announced a price cap on refined Russian oil products, which took effect on Sunday. Fuel oil and other low-value exports will be capped $45. A cap of $60 already applies to Russian crude.

Are Landlocked Soybean Crush Facilities Destined to Survive?

Insurers and shippers are prohibited from dealing in items covered by the cap unless they were bought below or at the designated price.

Agriculture As Seen From the Heavens–Yesterday and Today

Wed, 28 Dec 2022 15:28:14 GMT

You may have seen in the news recently that NASA sent a spacecraft capable of carrying hu-mans back to the moon. On November 16, 2022, the Artemis I spacecraft lifted off from Cape Canaveral to return to the celestial body where we as a nation left our last footprints 50 years ago.

The Apollo 17 mission, in December of 1972, was the swan song of NASA’s Apollo program. It is astronaut Gene Cernan who still holds the distinction of being the last person to walk on the moon. Hopefully, history and programs like Artemis will change that in the next couple of years. If we’re reminiscing about space milestones, we must recognize another historic space program that also dates back to 1972. This program changed how we look at planet Earth and the agricultural system that feeds the people that inhabit it.

After the cancellation of the Apollo program in the 1970’s, NASA pivoted to focus its efforts back to missions that would serve humanity and planet Earth itself. One of those missions also recently celebrated its 50th anniversary. The program was called Landsat and it revolutionized what it means to monitor agriculture, analyze crop conditions and estimate crop yields on a global scale.

As of January 2022 there were over 1,000 satellites in orbit that fall into the category of Earth observation. Earth selfies have gone so mainstream that in many cases they are now free. Google Earth is probably the best known free eye-in-the-sky example. Admit it, what farmer doesn’t want to take a look at their own farm from space — or don’t tell anybody, their neighbor’s farm — all the while browsing from the comfort of their favorite easy chair. Sure beats sitting on those un-comfortable ones down at the FSA office.

Don’t let the free selfies fool you.

Earth observation imagery and data services is an enormous business. According to a Straits Research report, in 2021 the global satellite Earth observation market was valued at $3.58 billion. By 2030, it is projected to more than double at $7.88 billion.

Given what is trending today in economics, society and politics, the industry may hit those numbers much sooner.

First, we had a global pandemic that impacted production and supply chains around the globe. It was Earth observation satellites watching the disruptions in the fields, factories and shipping ports as the Covid-19 lockdowns spread from country to country.

Second, when Russia invaded Ukraine it put the bounty of the “Breadbasket of Europe” at extreme risk. Losses of both production and actual commodity exports have sent societal shock-waves far beyond Kiev and Moscow. Because of satellite imagery we know about one-third of Ukraine’s current corn crop may not be harvested. We will also know the status of whether the grain that was harvested ever makes it on a boat and makes it out of the Black Sea to Lebanon or Egypt. Otherwise, we will watch a global humanitarian crisis unfold before our eyes.

Finally, you have subject of climate change. Translated to government and corporate business speak, that means using the three letter acronym ESG. For us common laymen, that’s short for Environmental, Social and Corporate Governance. ESG criteria is basically a set of standards that serves as sustainability “scorecards” for governments and corporations. Remotely sensed Earth observation is key to monitoring environmental criteria (the “E” in ESG) including identifying sources of water pollution and measuring progress toward sustainability. Farmer translated, the “eyes-in-the-sky” now know whether or not you planted your cover crop for your carbon credit.

From a technology and timing standpoint, satellite imagery is basking in its moment in the sun. Dramatically reduced launch costs thanks to private vendors like Space X, the miniaturization of satellites like Planet’s groundbreaking shoebox-sized “Doves”, plus quantum leaps in cloud computing and artificial intelligence are propelling the earth observation business to deliver capabilities that are far better, faster and cheaper than even just five years ago.

What is becoming clear is that Earth observation satellite technology and related services are quickly extending its lead in the imagery horserace between satellites and drones.

In what seemed like a close race just a few short years ago, satellites have pulled ahead partly because of onerous FAA regulations that have grounded most advancements in agricultural related drone technology. Plus, you can cover a lot more ground at 400 miles up than you can at a maximum altitude of 400 feet.

There are so many names, both new and old, in this space it is hard to keep track of them all. Names like Pixxel, Iceye, Orbital Insight and Planet Watchers are considered the new kids on the block. In particular, Planet Watchers, is noteworthy because of its AI capabilities in estimating crop losses and crop yields. They have already lined up clients ranging from ProAg crop insurance, Nutrien Ag Solutions, The World Bank, and even the EPA.

Tomorrow’s demands for a close eye on agriculture and the health of the planet are likely to only grow.

Plus, every farmer knows that Mother Nature does not rest. Droughts, floods, and derechos are part of the annual song and dance. Add supply chain hiccups and carbon credit verification to the mix and you’ve got a lot more high altitude picture snapping to do.

To appreciate how important Landsat’s technology is, you must consider what also happened in 1972. Ironically, Landsat was launched on the heels of the Soviet Union’s greatest grain crop failure. Although the crop failure was widespread throughout the USSR, the sheer magnitude of the shortfall remained unknown to U.S. governmental officials until months later. The lack of timely global production estimates lead to the USSR being able to purchase massive quantities of U.S. wheat at substantially lower prices than the true market value.

It became known as the great Soviet grain robbery. The Kremlin bought one-fourth of the United State’s wheat harvest in 1972. Domestically, farm prices and consumer food prices skyrocketed. Was this the match that lit the fire of runaway inflation for years to come? That’s one for the eco-nomic and political pundits to debate until the cows come home. Such a global grain failure will not be hidden in darkness like that ever again. With 1,000 eyes-in-the-sky, we can now count every cow and every corn plant in every county, country, and continent in the world. Imagine what might be possible in fifty more years.

IMF Anticipates Global Inflation Will Peak in Late 2022

Tue, 11 Oct 2022 18:10:47 GMT

The International Monetary Fund forecasts a slowdown in global growth from 6.0% in 2021 to 3.2% in 2022 and 2.7% in 2023.

The global slowdown in 2022 is as projected in the July 2022 World Economic Outlook (WEO) update, while the forecast for 2023 is lower than projected by 0.2 percentage point. In the revised forecasts , 93% of countries received downgrades to their growth outlook.

More to Come

Aside from the global financial crisis and the peak of the Covid-19 pandemic, this is “the weakest growth profile since 2001,” the IMF said in its WEO published Tuesday morning.

“The worst is yet to come, and for many people 2023 will feel like a recession,” the report said, echoing warnings from the United Nations, the World Bank and many global CEOs.

Cause for Shift

The IMF noted three major events currently hindering growth: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the cost-of-living crisis and China’s economic slowdown. Together, they create a “volatile” period economically, geopolitically and ecologically.

More than a third of the global economy will see two consecutive quarters of negative growth, while the three largest economies — the United States, the European Union and China — will continue to slow, the report said.

Inflation Timeline

The IMF anticipates global inflation will peak in late 2022, increasing from 4.7% in 2021 to 8.8%, and that it will “remain elevated for longer than previously expected.”

Global inflation will likely decrease to 6.5% in 2023 and to 4.1% by 2024, according to the IMF forecast. The agency noted the tightening of monetary policy across the world to combat inflation and the “powerful appreciation” of the U.S. dollar against other currencies.

Red Flags

The IMF also highlighted that the risk of monetary, fiscal, or financial policy “miscalibration” had “risen sharply,” while the world economy “remains historically fragile” and financial markets are “showing signs of stress.”

In an interview with the Financial Times , Pierre Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF’s chief economist, said there was as much as a 15% chance global growth could fall below 1% eventually. This level would likely meet the threshold of a recession and would be “very, very painful for a lot of people.”

“We are not in a crisis yet, but things are really not looking good,” he said, adding that 2023 would be the “darkest hour” for the global economy.

The energy crisis is also weighing heavily on the world’s economies, particularly in Europe, and it “is not a transitory shock,” according to IMF’s report. “The geopolitical re-alignment of energy supplies in the wake of Russia’s war against Ukraine is broad and permanent,” the report added. “Winter 2022 will be challenging for Europe, but winter 2023 will likely be worse,” the IMF said.

The U.S. economy is expected to stagnate over the four quarters of 2022 and then maintain a sluggish 1% growth rate in 2023.

More on inflation:

Could Food Prices Ease in 2023? USDA’s New Consumer Food Price Forecast Has a Bit of Good News
Is Out-of-Control Inflation on the Horizon? Watch These Two Indicators
John Phipps: The Inflation We Expect

Russia Sparks New Trouble in Grain and Oil Exports

Thu, 22 Sep 2022 02:56:19 GMT

Russian President Vladimir Putin appeared to threaten a deal allowing Ukraine’s grain exports to resume via the Black Sea. The news caused wheat prices to surge overnight.

Addressing the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, Putin claimed that “practically all” of Ukraine’s grain exports were being sent to the EU, rather than the poorest countries.

“I met with the leaders of the African Union, with the leaders of African countries, and promised them that we would do everything to ensure their interests and facilitate the export of Ukrainian grain,” Putin was quoted as saying. “We are honoring the agreements. (but) it turns out… that they (the West) have just royally screwed us over and not just us but the poorest countries whose interest were the pretext of doing all this.”

Putin said he now wants to renegotiate the deal, raising concerns the pact may not be able to last.

Russia on Fertilizer

Putin also said some restrictions on Russia’s fertilizer exports had been eased, but “clever sanctions” were still complicating Russian trade.

“There are no direct sanctions against products, but there are restrictions related to logistics, freight, payments and insurance. Many of these elements of restrictions remain,” Putin said.

Roadblocks on Russian trade doesn’t stop at fertilizer.

Price Caps on Russian Oil

U.S. wants a $44 per barrel cap on Russian oil prices under the agreement reached by G7 countries last week, according to U.S. Deputy Secretary of the Treasury Adewale Adeyemo, referencing the level signaled by Russia as its cost of production.

“We’re not going to set that price below Russia’s price of production,” he said, indicating the level would still encourage Russian production but not allow them to gain benefits from market turmoil. “The goal will be of our policy to try and drive down their revenues while keeping, allowing them to continue to flow energy out of Russia,” Adeyemo said.

Details of the plan are to be made by the G7 countries that agreed to the plan. The G7 price cap is entering into effect on Dec. 5 for crude oil and on Feb. 5, pending the finalization of the price caps “based on a range of technical inputs.”

Russia Fights Back

Russia stated last week that it would not sell oil to countries with a price cap in place.

Also, naysayers note the price cap coalition is simply not broad enough to make the cap work. The coalition, despite the G7’s best efforts, does not include either China or India — Russia’s two biggest oil clients.

Meanwhile, Japan, would be hard pressed to enforce the price cap, given its dependence on any and all sorts of energy imports. It was not a surprise that while Japan’s finance minister Shinuchi Suzuki celebrated the G7 decision, oil from Sakhalin-2, the Russian project, which is exported to Japan, will be excluded from the price cap.

According to Yale professors Jeffrey Sonnenfeld and Steven Tian , a price cap on Russian oil will work.

More on trade:

3 Supply Chain Trends to Look Out for in 2023, According To AEM
New Information Shows the War in Ukraine Could Have Been Prevented
Ukraine Successfully Shipped Some Grain Out This Week, But Could Now Face a Bigger Challenge

Why Did Russia Invade Ukraine? Implications for Agriculture

Mon, 04 Apr 2022 19:45:23 GMT

Before Putin’s forces even breached the Ukraine border, fear and speculation drove commodity prices skyward. Concerns are warranted: Trade disruptions in energy, fertilizer and grains are inevitable. In fact, effects are likely to last for years, possibly even longer.

While U.S. farmers do face higher prices for fuel and fertilizer, they are likely to enjoy an enhanced competitive advantage for some time to come. Here’s why:

Fuel
Fertilizer
Infrastructure
Capital/credit
Risk management/crop insurance

Where the War is at Today

See the map below provided by Zeihan. Red is where the Russians have operational control; blue is where the Ukrainians have managed to hold out. There are three main thrusts of interest to agriculture:

From the north (Belarus) to Kiev, the political capital. From there, Putin could dice up the country and it would be more manageable.
From the East – Crimea southeast to Mariupol, where WWII-style civilian obliteration is taking place. Once it falls, the rail line can transport Russians en masse from interior Russia all the way to the west.
Crimea to Odessa: The major port for the region.

Russia’s Master Plan

This map takes us a step further, Zeihan notes. The heavy dashed lines represent Russia’s “ideal western borders.” Note how that extension would greatly reduce the number of political boundaries the western-facing pipelines (red, gas; green, oil) would need to traverse. It would also give Russia added access to water transportation.

Read more coverage of the Russia-Ukraine conflict .

Nutrien to Increase Potash Production Amid Eastern Europe Supply Worries

Thu, 17 Mar 2022 20:32:02 GMT

Canada’s Nutrien Ltd, the world’s biggest fertilizer producer, said on Wednesday it plans to increase potash output by nearly 1 million tonnes this year to about 15 million tonnes in response to the uncertainty of supply from Eastern Europe.

Potash is a key input required for producing nitrogen-containing fertilizers, and Russia and Belarus are the world’s second- and third-largest producers of the commodity after Canada.

Potash prices have soared since economic sanctions were imposed against Russia after its invasion of Ukraine. Belarus, Russia’s ally, has also been subject to European and U.S. sanctions that have restricted its potash exports.

Nutrien said the additional volume of potash is expected to be produced in the second half of the year.

Meanwhile, Canadian Pacific Railway, which moves potash fertilizer into the United States, has sent a lock-out notice to its employees after talks with a union on wages and other issues failed, a move that could disrupt the supply of the commodity.

A lockdown at the rail-road company could have “serious implications” for potash transport to ports for shipment to offshore buyers, Natashia Stinka, a spokeswoman for Canpotex Ltd, a company owned by Nutrien and Mosaic Co, had said earlier. (Reporting by Akanksha Khushi in Bengaluru; Additional reporting by Shubham Kalia; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)

Bayer Announces Stoppage of ‘Non-Essential’ Business in Russia and Belarus

Thu, 17 Mar 2022 20:31:35 GMT

On March 14, Bayer released a statement saying the company was stopping all ‘non-essential’ business in Russia and Belarus.

This includes the following actions in the Russian and Belarusian markets:

Suspending all advertising and other promotional activities.
Halting capital investment projects indefinitely.
Not pursuing any new business opportunities.

The company said: “More than two weeks have passed since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. From the outset, we have utterly condemned this brutal aggression against a sovereign country. Our hearts ache as we see the devastation and death affecting innocent civilians, including children. Thousands have been killed or wounded, millions are fleeing the country, and the humanitarian situation of those who stay is deteriorating by the hour. We stand by the people of Ukraine who can fully count on our solidarity and support.”

To support Ukrainian farmers, Bayer says, “Our seeds and agricultural inputs stand ready for the planting season for farmers in Ukraine and we hope that the Ukrainian farmers will be able to secure the 2022 harvest. We are prepared to support them as the window for planting is closing in only a few weeks.”

Bayer has 700 employees in Ukraine, which will be provided with financial aid, shelter and evacuation assistance.

Additional aid will be provided by the Euro Disaster Relief Fund, which gives monetary assistance and donated health products including antibiotics, as well as the Red Cross relief campaign, which Bayer is matching employee donations to.

Bayer also said, “We have also heard voices calling for a complete stop of delivery of all our products to Russia and Belarus. We understand these concerns as the war raises moral and ethical issues for every company.”

And the company said, “We will closely monitor the political situation and decide about supplies for 2023 and beyond at a later stage, depending on Russia stopping its unprovoked attacks on Ukraine and returning to a path of international diplomacy and peace.”

Read the full statement from Bayer here.

How the Russian Oil Ban Will Impact Clean Energy Debates

Wed, 09 Mar 2022 14:16:58 GMT

On Tuesday morning, President Biden shared a ban on Russian oil imports to the U.S. following pleads from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Phil Flynn, Price Futures Group energy analyst, and U.S. Sen. Jerry Moran (R-KS) joined AgriTalk Host Chip Flory to consider the effects of the oil ban.

Is Now the Right Time?

In April 2021, the Biden administration outlined their intentions to cut U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by 50% in 2030 through clean energy avenues such as electric vehicles.

Today, Biden reaffirmed his administration has not been completely anti-fossil fuel, citing oil production being higher in his first year of office than President Trump’s first year.

Flynn told Flory he believes Biden’s comment to be “totally” misleading. He says the administration had expressed their intentions to ban oil leases when Biden first took office, which turned up the heat on oil markets and skewed any fuel production data.

Moran says President Biden seems “unwilling” to cross the environmental divide to suggest we’re going to produce more oil.

“Before the war with Ukraine, the President encouraged Russia to produce more oil to help us lower the price at the pump,” Moran says. “That shows we’re not really opposed to the use of oil; we’re opposed to the politics of suggesting we want to use oil. That’s so hypocritical.”

Outsourcing Options

The Biden administration is in the midst of negotiating imports of oil to the U.S. from Venezuela, Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

According to Flynn, these locations offer oil that is made far and away from the Biden administration’s clean future standards.

“When Texas started to run out of oil in the 50s and 60s, the U.S. built refineries for cheap oil that was readily available from Venezuela. But their oil is a very thick and sticky oil,” says Flynn. “I think Venezuela and Saudi Arabia are some of the dirtiest producers in the world.”

Biden also identified the U.S.’s need for energy independence, citing wind and solar energy as the avenues to releasing our bonds with foreign oil.

Moran does see merit in the U.S. taking up environmentally sound policies, but they must be based upon common sense. He says solar and wind power are both energy sources he supports, but he does not believe they are the oil crisis solution.

BREAKING: U.S. To Ban Russian Oil Imports

Tue, 08 Mar 2022 21:47:15 GMT

UPDATE: WASHINGTON (AP) - Biden: US ban on Russian oil a ‘powerful blow’ to ‘Putin’s war,’ warns Americans ‘defending freedom is going to cost.’

UPDATE: NEW YORK (AP) - Average price for a gallon of gasoline in the US hits a record $4.17 as the country prepares to ban Russian oil imports.

UPDATE: President Bident to speak at 10:30am EST approx. The White House says he will “announce actions to continue to hold Russia accountable”. You can watch it here .

WASHINGTON (AP) - President Joe Biden has decided to ban Russian oil imports, toughening the toll on Russia’s economy in retaliation for its invasion of Ukraine, according to a person familiar with the matter. The move follows pleas by Ukrainian President Volodmyr Zelenskyy to U.S. and Western officials to cut off the imports. Energy exports have kept a steady influx of cash flowing to Russia despite otherwise severe restrictions on its financial sector. Biden was set to announce the move as soon as Tuesday, the person said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss the matter before an announcement.

NBC News reports the ban could happen as soon as Tuesday. It’s believed the move will push energy prices even higher. The President is scheduled to deliver remarks this morning from the White House about the situation involving Russia. Oil was already starting the day up over $125 a barrel on Tuesday. Follow the markets here .

This is a developing story. Stay with us for updates.

BREAKING: Report: China Asked for Russia to Delay Attack on Ukraine Until After Winter Olympics

Wed, 02 Mar 2022 21:42:49 GMT

UPDATE: 03/02 4:40-pm-EST-(Reuters) - Senior Chinese officials told senior Russian officials in early February not to invade Ukraine before the end of the Winter Olympics in Beijing, the New York Times reported on Wednesday, citing Biden administration officials and a European official. The Times said a Western intelligence report indicates senior Chinese officials had some level of knowledge about Russia’s plans or intentions to invade Ukraine before it started last week.

UPDATE: 03/02 4:23 pm-EST-There are reports a missile struck a vessel flying under the flag of Bangladesh. Reports are that the bulk carrier has been waiting to load since February and couldn’t leave due to restrictions in the area. Videos posted to Twitter appear to show a ship on fire near Olvia Port, Ukraine. Several news reports say a Bangladeshi sailor died.

KHERSON, Ukraine - (AP) A Russian official says troops have taken the Ukrainian port city of Kherson - a claim that the Ukrainian military denies. The city is under Russian soldiers’ “complete control,” Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said Wednesday. He said that the city’s civilian infrastructure, essential facilities and transport are operating as usual and that there are no shortages of food or essential goods.

UPDATE: 03/02 3:43 pm -EST-GOTLAND, Sweden (AP)- Sweden says four Russian fighter jets violated its airspace over the Baltic Sea on Wednesday. The four aircraft - two SU-27 and two SU-24 fighters - flew briefly over Swedish airspace east of the island of Gotland, according to a statement from the Swedish Armed Forces. “In light of the current situation we are very concerned about the incident,” Swedish Air Force chief Carl-Johan Edstrom said. “This is unprofessional and irresponsible behavior from the Russian side.” Swedish fighter jets were scrambled and took photos of the Russian jets, the statement said.

KYIV, Ukraine - Ukrainian officials have reported a powerful explosion in Kyiv, between the Southern Railway station and the Ibis hotel, an area near Ukraine’s Defense Ministry.

WASHINGTON - A senior U.S. defense official says the Russian convoy still appears to be stalled outside the city center of Kyiv, and has made no real progress in the last couple days. The official on Wednesday said the convoy is still plagued with fuel and food shortages and logistical problems, as well as facing continued fierce resistance from Ukrainians.

WASHINGTON - The White House has announced additional sanctions against Russia and its ally Belarus, including extending export controls that target Russian oil refining and entities supporting the Russian and Belarusian military. Among Wednesday’s new measures are sanctions targeting 22 Russia defense entities that make combat aircraft, infantry fighting vehicles, electronic warfare systems, missiles, and unmanned aerial vehicles for Russia’s military.

UPDATE: 03/02 12:06pm-EST-KYIV, Ukraine (AP) - The U.N. General Assembly has voted to demand that Russia stop its offensive in Ukraine and withdraw all troops, with nations from world powers to tiny island states condemning Moscow. The vote Wednesday was 141 to 5, with 35 abstentions. It came after the 193-member assembly convened its first emergency session since 1997.

UPDATE: 03/02 12:05 pm-EST-MOSCOW (AP) - Russia’s Defense Ministry says 498 of its troops killed in Ukraine, 1,597 wounded in 1st report of military casualties.

UPDATE: 03/02 10:45 am-EST-Wheat prices reach $11. Follow the markets here .

UPDATE: 03/02 10:03 am-EST-WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States is “very open” to imposing sanctions on Russia’s oil and gas industry as it also weighs the potential market impact, the White House said on Wednesday as global oil prices touched eight-year highs and supply disruptions mounted.

UPDATE: 03/02 9:49 am-EST-NEW YORK (AP) - Oil prices are surging again as Russia continues its assault on Ukraine, pushing crude up to $110 a barrel.

UPDATE: 03/02 9:31 am-EST-DUBAI/LONDON, March 2 (Reuters) - OPEC+ oil producers agreed on Wednesday to stick to their plans for a modest output rise in April, ignoring the Ukraine crisis during their talks and snubbing calls from consumers for more crude even as crude prices rocketed higher.

UPDATE: 03/02 9:25 am-EST-KYIV, Ukraine (AP) - Ukraine’s State Emergency Service says over 2,000 civilians dead in week of war; independent confirmation not possible.

UPDATE: 03/02 8:55 am EST-KYIV, Ukraine (AP) - Russia renewed its assault on Ukraine’s second-largest city in a pounding that lit up the skyline with balls of fire over populated areas. That came Wednesday even as both sides said they were ready to resume talks aimed at stopping the new devastating war in Europe. The escalation of attacks on crowded cities followed an initial round of talks between outgunned Ukraine and nuclear power Russia on Monday that resulted in only a promise to meet again. It was not clear when new talks might take place - or what they would yield. Ukraine’s president earlier said Russia must stop bombing before another meeting. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has decried Russia’s bombardment as a blatant terror campaign.

President Biden is talking about the situation in Ukraine in his State of the Union speech. It starts tonight at 9 pm EST. Watch it here .

UPDATE: 03/01 4:48 pm-EST-(Reuters) - Apple Inc (AAPL.O) said on Tuesday it has paused all product sales in Russia in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

UPDATE: 03/01 4:41 pm-EST-(AP) WASHINGTON - The U.S. on Tuesday injected a strong note of caution into the persistent reports that Russian military progress - including by the massive convoy outside Kyiv - has slowed, plagued by food and fuel shortages and logistical problems.

One senior Defense official said that the U.S. has seen Russian military columns literally run out of gas, and in some places running out of food, and that morale is suffering as a result.

But the official added that it is important to be pragmatic. The Russians still have a significant amount of combat power that has not yet been tapped, and “they will regroup, they will adjust, they will change their tactics.”

UPDATE: 03/01 3:38 pm-EST-WINNIPEG, Manitoba, March 1 (Reuters) - Canada’s Nutrien Ltd (NTR.TO) , the world’s biggest fertilizer producer, said on Tuesday that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could result in prolonged disruptions to the global supply of potash and nitrogen crop nutrients.

Interim Chief Executive Ken Seitz said Nutrien will boost potash production if it sees sustained supply problems in Russia and Belarus, the world’s second-and third-largest potash-producing countries after Canada.

UPDATE: 03/01 2:00 pm-EST-(Reuters) The world’s three biggest container lines are temporarily suspending cargo shipments to and from Russia. They are Swiss-headquartered MSC, Denmark’s Maersk, and France’s CMA CGM. Maersk also added that the suspension covering all Russian ports, would not include foodstuffs, medical and humanitarian supplies.

UPDATE: 03/01 11:10 am-EST-FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) - International Energy Agency says 31 member countries agree to release 60 million barrels of oil from reserves.

UPDATE: 03/01 10:57 am-EST-KYIV, Ukraine (AP) - Ukrainian parliament says Russian forces have hit the TV tower in Ukraine’s capital of Kyiv.

UPDATE: 03/01 10:46 am-EST-Crude oil futures continue to trade above $100.

UPDATE: 03/01 10:37 am-EST- Corn, soybeans and wheat all up double digits. Follow the markets here .

UPDATE 03/01 9:35 am-EST-From Farm Journal Washington Analyst Jim Wiesemeyer: U.S. oil jumped to a 7-year high above $101 a barrel as the Russian assault prompts supply oil shortage fears. The U.S. and other countries are discussing releasing around 70 million barrels of strategic oil reserves, but the major unknown is whether OPEC will boost production, with an important meeting on the topic tomorrow. Pressure continues on Biden and U.S. allies to include oil trade in sanctions on Russia.

UPDATE: 03/01 9:20 am-EST-KYIV, Ukraine (AP) - Russian strikes pounded the central square in Ukraine’s second-largest city and other civilian targets, and a 40-mile convoy of tanks and other vehicles threatened the capital. Ukraine’s embattled president accused Moscow on Tuesday of resorting to terror tactics to press Europe’s largest ground war in generations. With the Kremlin increasingly isolated by tough economic sanctions that have tanked the ruble currency, Russian troops advanced on Ukraine’s two biggest cities. In strategic Kharkiv, explosions tore through the region’s Soviet-era administrative building and residential areas on Day 6 of an invasion that has shaken the 21st century world order.

U’PDATE: 02/28 5:05 pm-EST-WASHINGTON, Feb 28 (Reuters) - Americans should not be worried about nuclear war, U.S. President Joe Biden said on Monday, the day after Russian President Vladimir Putin put Russia’s nuclear deterrent on high alert amid Moscow’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. The President was asked about by a reporter it while attending a White House celebration of Black History Month.

UPDATE: 02/28 4:54 pm-EST-KYIV, Ukraine (AP) - Russian forces are shelling Ukraine’s second-largest city, rocking a residential neighborhood, and closing in on the capital, Kyiv, in a 17-mile convoy of hundreds of tanks and other vehicles.

UPDATE: 02/28 3:57 pm-EST-TORONTO - Canada will be supplying Ukraine with anti-tank weapons systems, upgraded ammunition and is banning all imports of crude oil from Russia.

UPDATE: 02/28 3:32 pm-EST-BRUSSELS (AP) - The European Union has slapped sanctions on 26 more Russians, including oligarchs, senior officials and an energy insurance company, in response to the country’s invasion of Ukraine, bringing the total of people targeted to 680.

THE HAGUE, Netherlands (AP) - International Criminal Court prosecutor to open probe into possible war crimes or crimes against humanity in Ukraine.

BEREGSURANY, Hungary (AP) - The mass exodus of refugees from Ukraine to the eastern edge of the European Union has showed no signs of stopping as they flee Russia’s burgeoning war. The U.N. estimated Monday that more than 500,000 people have already escaped.

UPDATE: 02/28 3:10 pm-EST-KYIV, Ukraine - Satellite images show Russian troops are attacking Ukraine on multiple fronts and are advancing on the capital city of Kyiv. On Monday, a convoy consisting of hundreds of armored vehicles, tanks, artillery and support vehicles was just 17 miles (25 kilometers) from the center of Kyiv. The city is home to nearly 3 million residents. The images from Maxar Technologies also captured signs of fighting outside Kyiv, including destroyed vehicles and a damaged bridge.

UPDATE: 02/28 1:13 pm-EST-LONDON (AP) - Shell says it pulling out of Russia as President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine costs the country’s all-important energy industry foreign investment and expertise. Shell announced its intention Monday to exit its joint ventures with Gazprom and related entities, including its 27.5% stake in the Sakhalin-II liquefied natural gas facility, its 50% stake in the Salym Petroleum Development and the Gydan energy venture. Shell also intends to end its involvement in the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project.

UPDATE: 02/28 11:59 am-EST-KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — A top adviser to Ukraine’s president says the first round of talks with Russia about ending the fighting in Ukraine has concluded, and more talks could happen soon.

UPDATE: 02/28 11:45 am-EST-KYIV, UKRAINE (AP) - Ukraine’s leader Zelenskyy applies for Ukraine to join the 27-nation European Union on the 5th day of Russian invasion.

Picture posted to Twitter:

UPDATE: 02/28 10:53 am-EST-NEW YORK (AP) - Markets quivered Monday amid worries about how high oil prices will go and how badly the global economy will get hit after the U.S. and allies upped the financial pressure on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. Stocks fell, investors herded into gold in search of safety and the Russian ruble tumbled to a record low below a penny at one point.

UPDATE: 02/28 10:18 am-EST-(Reuters) - Energy giant BP, global bank HSBC and the world’s biggest aircraft leasing firm AerCap joined a growing list of companies looking to exit Russia on Monday, as Western sanctions tightened the screws on Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine. Russia’s economy was already reeling on Monday. The rouble plunged as much as 30% to an all-time low, while the central bank doubled its key interest rate to 20%, kept stock markets and derivative markets closed and temporarily banned brokers from selling securities held by foreigners

UPDATE: 02/28 9:54am-EST-LVIV, Feb 28 (Reuters) - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Monday asked the European Union to allow Ukraine to gain membership under a special procedure immediately as it defends itself from invasion by Russian forces.

“Our goal is to be with all Europeans and, most importantly, to be equal. I’m sure that’s fair. I am sure we deserve it,” he said in a video speech shared on social media.

UPDATE: 02/28 9:02 am-EST-KYIV, Ukraine (AP) - Russian and Ukrainian delegations met for talks amid high hopes but low expectations for any diplomatic breakthrough. The talks Monday come after Moscow unleashed the biggest land war in Europe since World War II but met unexpectedly stiff resistance. As outgunned but determined Ukrainian forces slowed the Russian advance and sanctions crippled the Russian economy, the military confirmed that its nuclear forces were on high alert. While that raised the unimaginable specter of nuclear conflict, it was unclear what practical effect it had. A tense calm reigned Monday in Kyiv, explosions and gunfire were heard in embattled cities in eastern Ukraine, and terrified Ukrainian families huddled overnight in shelters, basements or corridors.

UPDATE: 2/27 3:56 pm-EST-Brussels (AP)-The European Union agreed Sunday to close its airspace to Russian airlines, spend hundreds of millions of euros on buying weapons for Ukraine and ban some pro-Kremlin media outlets in its latest response to Russia’s invasion.

In what he described as “a defining moment for European history,” EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said that the bloc’s 27 foreign ministers had greenlighted the unprecedented support for Ukraine and that those actions would take effect within hours.

Kyiv, Ukraine (AP)-President Vladimir Putin ordered Russian nuclear forces to be put on high alert Sunday, while Ukraine’s embattled leader agreed to talks with Moscow. Right now, Putin’s troops and tanks are driving deeper into the country. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s office announced that the two sides would meet Monday at an unspecified location on the Belarusian border, where a Russian delegation was waiting Sunday.

(CNN)-Ukraine has filed an application to institute proceedings against Russia before the International Court of Justice (ICJ) for a “dispute … relating to the interpretation, application and fulfillment of the 1948 Convention and Prevention of Punishment of the Crimes of Genocide,” according to an ICJ news release on the filing.

The following was tweeted by Ukraine’s president:

UPDATE: 5:15 pm-EST-(Reuters) - Ukraine and Russia are discussing a place and time for talks, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s spokesman said on social media on Friday.

“Ukraine was and remains ready to talk about a ceasefire and peace,” spokesman Sergii Nykyforov added.

UPDATE: 5:12 pm-EST-RICHMOND, Va.-Criminal ransomware operators are posting messages on the dark web pledging to launch retaliatory cyberattacks if Russia is attacked.

The ransomware group Conti, which experts say has ties to Russia, said in a note on its dark web site Friday that it would “use all our possible resources to strike back at the critical infrastructures of an enemy.”

Ransomware gangs are mostly Russian-speaking and operate with near impunity out of Russia and allied countries.

In a follow up note, the Conti group stressed it was not an ally of any government and said: “we condemn the ongoing war.”

Major ransomware attacks in the last year, including against the biggest U.S. fuel pipeline, have underscored how gangs of extortionist hackers can disrupt the economy and put lives and livelihoods at risk. The U.S. government has been warning critical infrastructure entities to prepare for possible attacks and to make sure their defenses are up to date.

Non-state hackers have promised to be active in both sides of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The online collective Anonymous recently pledged to conduct cyberattacks to support Ukraine.

UPDATE: 4:06 pm-EST-WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Russian assault on Ukraine was more brutal on Friday with attacks on civilian infrastructure and Kyiv, but Moscow’s forces did not advance as planned and the capital remained firmly in Ukrainian control, Ukrainian Ambassador to the United States Oksana Markarova said. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy remains in Kyiv and he held a “very productive” phone call with President Joe Biden on Friday, the ambassador told reporters.

Russia has deliberately targeted some of Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure and hospitals, she said, and Ukrainian officials are gathering war crimes evidence to present to the International Criminal Court.

UPDATE: 3:47 pm-EST-WASHINGTON (AP) - Biden plans move to freeze assets of Putin, Russian foreign minister, matching EU sanctions against Russian leadership.

UPDATE: 1:14 pm-EST-Tweet from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy:

UPDATE: 1:06 pm-EST-BRUSSELS (AP) - NATO chief says leaders agree to send rapid response troops to protect allies near Russia and Ukraine.

UPDATE: 10:03 pm-EST-NEW YORK (AP) - Relief flowed through Wall Street on Friday, even as deadly attacks continued to rage in Ukraine. Stocks rose, oil fell and investors turned away from gold and other traditional havens they favor when fear is high.

UPDATE: 12:12 pm-EST-BRUSSELS (AP) - The European Union has agreed to freeze the assets of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, according to Latvia’s foreign minister. A decision to freeze Putin and Lavrov’s assets indicates that Western powers are moving toward unprecedented measures to try to stop Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine neighbor and a major war in Europe. Latvian Foreign Minister Edgards Rinkevics said in a Tweet on Friday that he and the EU’s other foreign ministers adopted a second sanctions package and “the asset freeze includes President of Russia and its Foreign Minister.”He said the EU plans to prepare another package of sanctions.

UPDATE: 11:33 am-EST-CNN Business is reporting China is relaxing restrictions on imports of Russian wheat. It says the decision to allow imports of wheat from all regions of Russia was made when Russian President Putin met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping during the Olympics earlier this month. It says the details of the plan were only announced by China’s customs administration this week. Russia is the world’s top producer of wheat. Previously, Beijing had restricted wheat imports from Russia out of concerns about dwarf bunt fungus.

UPDATE: 11:12 am-EST-Concern is growing about exports from the region, specifically fertilizer. Arlan Suderman of StoneX tweeting this:

UPDATE: 11:10 am-EST-BRUSSELS (AP) - Council of Europe suspends Russia at Europe’s foremost human rights organization.

UPDATE: 10:15 am EST-John Deere Co. says its offices in Ukraine are now closed. John Deere told WQAD-TV “We are closely monitoring the developments in these countries and are actively assessing the potential impact to our people.” Deere officials report employees in Ukraine were evacuated at the start of the year.

UPDATE: 9:44 am EST-Global farm commodities trader Cargill Inc (CARG.UL) said on Thursday that an ocean vessel it chartered was “hit by a projectile” on the Black Sea, but that the ship remained seaworthy and all crew were safe and accounted for.

The incident occurred offshore from Ukraine on Thursday after Russia launched an invasion of the major grain-producing country where Cargill operates an export terminal.

UPDATE: 9:40 am EST-From Farm Journal’s Jim Wiesemeyer:

WSJ report: U.S. agriculture companies operating in Ukraine are closing offices and shuttering facilities there in response to Russia’s attack. WSJ details:

— Archer Daniels Midland Co. said Thursday that it had stopped operating its facilities in Ukraine, where, a company spokeswoman said, the crop trader and processor employs more than 630 people. ADM’s Ukraine facilities include an oilseed crushing plant in Chornomorsk, a grain terminal in the port of Odessa, six grain silos and a trading office in Kyiv.— Bunge Ltd. closed company offices as well as temporarily suspended operations at processing facilities in two cities in Ukraine, the company said Thursday. Bunge employs more than a thousand workers in Ukraine who operate two processing facilities as well as grain elevators and a grain export terminal in various parts of the country.— CHS Inc., a farm cooperative and major grain shipper and retailer of seeds and chemicals, said it has been drawing down its export activity in Ukraine for the past few weeks. It employs 46 people in the region but doesn’t own port operations in the country.

UPDATE: 8:43am EST-There were several key developments overnight: KYIV, Ukraine (AP) - The Kremlin says Russia is ready to send a delegation to Belarus for talks with Ukrainian officials. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he is willing to discuss a non-aligned status for Ukraine. Moscow has demanded Ukraine drop its bid to join NATO, and adopt a neutral status. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Friday that Russian President Vladimir Putin is ready to send the delegation in response to that offer.

Russian troops are bearing down on Ukraine’s capital, with gunfire and explosions resonating ever closer to the government quarter. The invasion of a democratic country has fueled fears of wider war in Europe and triggered worldwide efforts to make Russia stop. Amid growing casualties from the deadly warfare were increasing signs that Vladimir Putin’s Russia may be seeking to overthrow Ukraine’s government. It is his boldest effort yet to redraw the world map and revive Moscow’s Cold War-era influence. The U.S. and other global powers slapped ever-tougher sanctions on Russia as the invasion reverberated through the world’s economy and energy supplies. U.N. officials said they were preparing for millions to flee Ukraine.

Russian military says it has seized strategic airport outside Ukrainian capital; claims it cut Kyiv off from the west.

Pope Francis has made a personal, in-person visit to the Russian Embassy to “express his concern about the war,” in Ukraine. It was an extraordinary, hands-on gesture that came on the same day the Vatican announced he was canceling upcoming events because of an “acute” flareup of knee pain.Usually popes receive ambassadors and heads of state in the Vatican, and diplomatic protocol would have called for Francis, as the Vatican head of state, to summon the ambassador to him. For Francis to leave the Vatican and travel a short distance to the Russian embassy to the Holy See outside the Vatican walls was a sign of his anger at Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine and his willingness to appeal personally for an end to it.Vatican officials said they knew of no such previous papal initiative.

Twenty million dollars in U.N. humanitarian funds for Ukraine. A raft of new, stronger sanctions against Russia from Japan, Australia, Taiwan and others. And a cascade of condemnation from the highest levels. As Russian bombs and troops pounded Ukraine during the invasion’s first full day, world leaders began to fine-tune a response meant to punish the Russian economy and its leaders, including President Vladimir Putin’s inner circle. While there’s an acute awareness that a military intervention isn’t currently feasible, the strength, unity and speed of the financial sanctions - with the striking exception of China, a strong Russian supporter - signal a growing global determination to make Moscow reconsider its attack.

UPDATE: 5:22 pm EST-MOSCOW, Feb 24 (Reuters) - Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke by phone to French President Emmanuel Macron on Thursday and gave him an “exhaustive” explanation of the reasons for Russia’s actions in Ukraine, the Kremlin said.

The Kremlin said the call took place at Macron’s initiative, and he and Putin agreed to stay in contact.

Macron undertook strenuous diplomacy in recent weeks to try to avert a Russian invasion of Ukraine, including holding talks with Putin in the Kremlin.

UPDATE: 5:18 pm EST-President Biden has sent out the following tweet, saying that sanctions imposed on Russia are already having an effect.

UPDATE: 5:11 pm EST- WARSAW (AP)- Some of the first refugees from Ukraine have arrived in European Union member Poland by road and rail.

A scheduled train from Kharkiv in eastern Ukraine arrived Thursday afternoon in the Polish town of Przemysl, near Ukraine’s western border, carrying a few hundred passengers.

The passengers of various ages, arriving with bags and backpacks, told The Associated Press they were fleeing war. Some live in Poland and were returning urgently from visits to their homeland.

The chief of Poland’s border guards, Gen. Tomasz Praga, said there was a visible increase in the number of people wanting to cross into Poland.

Officials said Poland has prepared at least eight centers with food, medical care and places to rest.

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said that “innocent people are being killed” in Ukraine and appealed to the Poles to extend every possible assistance to the Ukrainians who have found themselves in need of help.

UPDATE: 4:31 pm EST-NEW YORK (AP) - U.S. markets stabilized and ended higher Thursday after an early swoon brought on by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Technology stocks, in particular, rebounded strongly, erasing an early drop of 3.4% in the Nasdaq and leaving the tech-focused index up 3.3%. The S&P 500 also came back from an early loss and ended up 1.5%. Oil prices had surged earlier but ended with moderate gains.

UPDATE: 3:44 pm EST-KYIV, Ukraine (AP) - Ukraine’s health minister: 57 Ukrainians killed as a result of the Russian invasion, 169 more wounded.

UPDATE: 3:00 pm EST-Farm Journal Live-analysis of what has transpired today in Ukraine. AgDay’s Clinton Griffiths hosts a panel discussion with Standard Grain’s Joe Vaclavik and Dan Basse of AgResource Company. See what they had to say about the market moves today and what to watch going forward. Click here .

UPDATE: 2:36 pm EST-Key points from President Biden’s speech:

-President announced a new round of sanctions targeting Russian banks, oligarchs, and high-tech sectors

-Says Putin “chose this war” and that his country will bear the consequences of his actions

-U.S. will be deploying additional forces to Germany to help NATO

-President Biden held off on cutting Russia out of the SWIFT payment system. It allows the transfers of money from bank to bank around the world

-No sanctions were announced on Russia’s energy sector

UPDATE: 2:25 pm EST-WASHINGTON (AP) - US sanctions Belarusian banks, defense industry, security officials over support for Russian invasion of Ukraine.

UPDATE: 2:01 pm EST-WASHINGTON (AP) - Biden says US deploying additional forces to Germany to bolster NATO in face of Russian invasion of Ukraine.

UPDATE: 1:50 pm EST-WASHINGTON (AP) - Biden: ‘Putin chose this war’ in Ukraine, and he and Russia ‘will bear the consequences’ of new sanctions.

UPDATE 1:22 pm EST-President Biden expected to address the nation at any moment. Watch it here .

UPDATE: 12:55 pm EST -KYIV, Ukraine (AP) - A presidential adviser says Ukraine has lost control of the Chernobyl nuclear site after a fierce battle.

UPDATE: 12:33 pm EST - (Reuters) - Global agricultural commodities trader Bunge Ltd. (BG.N) said Thursday it has shuttered company offices in Ukraine and temporarily suspended operations at two oilseed crushing facilities in Nikolaev and Dnipro following a Russian military invasion.

Bunge employs more than 1,000 people in the country and also owns and operates grain elevators and an export terminal in Ukraine, the company said. It also operates a corn milling plant via a joint venture.

UPDATE: 12:30 pm EST - MOSCOW (AP) - Russia gave its first confirmation that its ground forces have moved into Ukraine, saying troops entered from Crimea.

UPDATE: 11:35 am EST -UNITED NATIONS (AP) - US official: UN Security Council to vote on resolution condemning Russia’s attack on Ukraine despite expected veto.

UPDATE 11:18 am EST - From The Associated Press: A senior U.S. defense official says Thursday’s attack by Russia appears to be the first phase in what will likely be a multi-phased, large-scale invasion.

The official said it began around 9:30 p.m. U.S. EST, with land- and sea-based missile launches. The official said that roughly more than 100 missiles, primarily short-range ballistic missiles, but also medium-range ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, surface-to-air missiles and sea-launched missiles, were launched in the first few hours of the attack.

The official said the Russians are moving on three axes: From Crimea to Kherson, from Belarus toward Kyiv, and from the northeast to Kharkiv.

The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said it’s not clear how many Russian troops are in Ukraine now, and the main targets of the air assault have been barracks, ammunition warehouses and 10 airfields. The official said Russian ground forces began to move into Ukraine from Belarus around 5 a.m. EST.

UPDATE 11:11 am EST - White House tweets photo of President Biden meeting with the National Security Council in the White House Situation Room:

UPDATE: 10:36 am EST- AgDay’s Clinton Griffiths just spoke with Farm Journal Washington Analyst Jim Wiesemeyer about what’s happening in Ukraine, and what to watch for next.

UPDATE 10:26 am EST-Tweet from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy:

UPDATE 10:22 am EST-Ukraine’s deputy interior minister Anton Gerashchenko just made the following post on Facebook:

UPDATE: 10:08 am EST- President Biden will address Russia’s attack on Ukraine at 12:30 pm EST. You can watch it live here .

UPDATE: 10:03 am EST- The U.S. government is now on high alert for possible Russian cyberattacks. A senior FBI cyber official is warning businesses and local government they should be vigilant against potential ransomware attacks. In fact, some of the biggest cyberattacks against U.S. infrastructure in the past two years have been linked to suspected Russian hackers.

UPDATE: 9:49 am EST- The S&P 500 sank 2% on opening. It’s now down almost 14% from the record high it set in early January. Here’s a look at the big commodity moves happening right now:

March corn:

March soybeans:

March wheat:

UPDATE: 9:38 am EST- A White House official says that President Biden met with the National Security Council this morning in the Situation Room to discuss the situation going on in Ukraine. The President is expected to address the nation this afternoon, during which he is expected to announce “further consequences” the U.S. and its allies will impose on Russia. Click here to read the latest statement from the White House. Markets continue to move. Follow them here .

UPDATE: 9:33 am EST- Dow sinks nearly 800 points following the attack on Ukraine.

UPDATE: 9:21 am EST- Ukraine’s military has now suspended operations at its ports because of the invasion by the Russian military, furthering concerns about the flow of supplies out of the area. Reuters reports that Russia had earlier suspended movement of commercial vessels in the Azov sea until further notice but kept Russian ports in the Black Sea open for navigation.

“The market is still struggling to get a clear picture about the actual military situation on the ground. The ports in the Azov and the Black Sea so far seem not to have been damaged according to the initial shipping agency reports,” one European grain trader told Reuters.

Russia produced 76 million tonnes of wheat last year and is expected by the U.S. Department of Agriculture to export 35 million tonnes in the July-June season, 17% of the global total.

UPDATE: 9:11 am EST- The financial and commodity markets reacted strongly to word that Russian President Vladimir Putin had launched military action in Ukraine. Global markets tumbled overnight and U.S. markets pointed toward a sharply lower open. Oil prices jumped by more than $7 per barrel, climbing above $100 a barrel, and futures for Wall Street’s benchmark S&P 500 index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average were off by more than 2.5%.

Market benchmarks in Europe and Asia fell as much as 5%.

Meanwhile, commodities such as corn, soybeans and wheat soared. Soybean prices rose above $17. Wheat prices surged past a nine-year high and are now up 20% since the start of the year.

Russia is the world’s largest wheat exporter and, together with Ukraine, supplies more than a quarter of the world’s wheat exports. There’s concern about supplies from both countries being disrupted because of military action.

Experts say that, with wheat being a staple element for human and livestock diets, any disruption can have an impact on prices.

Besides reaction from the financial markets to the situation, world reaction has been swift.

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg says Russia has launched a war on Ukraine and shattered peace on the European continent. Stoltenberg is now calling for a summit of NATO alliance leaders for Friday.

The European Union says it is planning the “strongest, the harshest, package” of sanctions it has ever considered.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said “the target is the stability in Europe and the whole of the international peace order, and we will hold President (Vladimir) Putin accountable for that.”

An adviser to Ukraine’s president says about 40 people have been killed so far in the Russian attack on the country. There are reports of airstrikes or shelling on cities and bases in the country, with people in Ukraine attempting to flee by piling into trains and cars.

This is a developing story. Keep watching for updates.

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Tomorrow’s demands for a close eye on agriculture and the health of the planet are likely to only grow.

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