Retail Beef

The Shrinking Slice: Farmers Receive Less Than 6 Cents of Every Food Dollar

Tue, 31 Mar 2026 20:30:42 GMT

For the past two years, USDA has estimated farmers and ranchers received less than 6 cents of every food dollar. In 2023, that was 5.9 cents, and using the latest data from 2024, it’s 5.8 cents.

“Our oldest data point right now is 2007 [USDA updated the data series] and that’s 14.7 cents per dollar, and now we’re down all the way to 11.8 cents per dollar,” says Faith Parum, economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation. “So we’ve really seen that decline year after year. It reflects how much of the value of things in the grocery store or when you go out to eat is going to other parts of the supply chain and not necessarily to farmers and ranchers.”

Livestock vs. Crops: A Widening Gap

The aggregate decline masks a widening gap between sectors. While the overall farmer share is down, livestock and crop producers are seeing divergent trends:

Crop Farmers: Share dropped from 2.9 cents to 2.5 cents (a 2.5% year-over-year decrease).
Livestock Producers: Share increased from 3 cents to 3.3 cents.

“Overall, the farmer share is down. But we have those two markets really at odds,” Parum says. “We’ve seen that tale of two farm economies where our livestock producers maybe have seen a little bit of better days than they had had in the past, while our row crop farmers and our specialty crop farmers are really facing strong headwinds in the market.”

Effect at the Farm Gate

As highlighted by USDA, farm finances are quickly strained when farmers/ranchers are capturing a small percentage of the food dollar and even modest swings in commodity prices and/or input prices take place.

Parum adds, “when we talk about the health of our farms and the health of future generations on the farm, and being economically viable and sustainable and being able to keep their operations open, the trends we’re seeing right now are really hard for those farmers. Our ranchers are seeing a little bit of better days right now with high beef prices, but that’s not going to last forever, and with production expenses continuing to increase, we’re really going to see that that question come up of, what is sustainable if, if these dollars we’re spending in the grocery store aren’t making it back to our farmers.”

Where Does the Money Get Distributed?

The key takeaway: farmers produce the raw commodities that make food production, however, the price is clearly more determined by what happens after the products first leave the farm.

The USDA Food Dollar Series tracks how each dollar is spent by consumers and then divides it across the industries contributing to the value in the supply chain, such as farming, food processing, transportation, packaging, wholesaling, retail and food service. As noted by the USDA, with each step in the process, the additional services, labor, transportation and infrastructure add value and increase costs to the final food product.

USDA’s Economic Research Service Food Dollar Series shows in 2024, farmers received 11.8 cents of every dollar spent on domestically produced food, the remaining 88.2 cents of the food dollar went toward the ‘marketing bill’, which includes costs associated with food processing, transportation, packaging, wholesaling, retailing and food service. Over time, this shift illustrates how an increasing share of food spending is driven by services and supply chain activities rather than farm production itself.

Groceries Leave the Most on The Table For Farmers

Farmers’ share of consumer food spending varies widely depending on the type of food purchased. For example, the farm share of the food-at-home dollar was 18.5 cents in 2024, up slightly from 18.4 cents in 2023. But even in this category it means only than one-fifth of what consumers spend on groceries goes back to farmers.

As you may expect, products with minimal processing, require less of the value to be retained in that part of the food system, and therefore return a larger share of the food dollar to producers.

“The highest commodity that gets the most of that food dollar is fresh eggs,” Parum notes. “That’s just because there’s limited labor to process that food.”

Examples include:

Fresh Eggs: 69.1 cents (+6% from 2023)
Beef: 52.2 cents (+4.8%)
Fresh Milk: 50.8 cents (+5.6%)
Pork: 23.7 cents (+7.2%)
Poultry (+3.1%)
Fish (+2.8%)
Tree nuts and peanuts (-1.7%)
Fresh fruits and vegetables (unchanged)
Bakery Products: 4.8 cents (-9.4%)
Soft Drinks/Bottled Water: 1.3 cents (-7.1%)

Beef Industry Chaos: Tight Supplies, Strong Consumer Demand and Political Interference

Thu, 13 Nov 2025 19:42:19 GMT

The current state of the cattle market and beef industry has been described as chaotic. “There’s chaos in cattle,” as Chip Flory, AgriTalk host, put it.

The industry turmoil follows recent statements made by President Donald Trump regarding the need to lower beef prices as well as his request for the Department of Justice to immediately begin an investigation into meatpackers for driving up the price of beef.

Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist from Oklahoma State University, affirms these are unique times, emphasizing while political factors have always indirectly influenced agriculture, it’s unprecedented for the cattle and beef markets to be at the center of direct political debate.

On a recent AgriTalk segment, Peel points out the inherent biological and production constraints of the cattle industry — particularly the fixed timeline to raise cattle — make quick fixes impossible. Both Flory and Peel stress that no political policy can shorten the cattle production process; any effective supply response requires patience and long-term adjustment.

Packers Under Fire

The concept of industry consolidation and foreign packer ownership has long drawn scrutiny with frequent government investigations. Peel says highly concentrated industries such as beef packing have been targets for skepticism and regulatory attention for over a century, to the point suspicion of packers is almost “a cultural thing” within segments of the industry.

He characterizes the latest call as another attempt to target convenient scapegoats rather than addressing deeper systemic realities of supply and demand.

“The reason we have the industry structure we do is because the economies of size and cost efficiencies are such a powerful economic force,” Peels explains.

He confirms researchers have long studied market power, and while concentration does have a small negative price impact for producers, the efficiency and cost-savings from large-scale firms more than compensate. These benefits, he says, keep cattle prices higher for producers and beef prices lower for consumers than they would be with a less efficient structure.

Dissecting the economics of margin markets Peels explains why price changes in different parts of the beef supply chain — cow-calf, feeders, packers and retailers — don’t move in lockstep. He uses a “bungee cord” analogy to illustrate the complex, dynamic and time-lagged interactions linking cattle prices at the farm with retail beef prices.

“All cattle prices and beef prices are ultimately connected, but they’re not connected with a stick or a chain,” Peel summarizes.” They’re connected with a bungee cord. There’s just an enormous amount of dynamics in this thing.”

Regarding the foreign ownership debate, Peel says there is no evidence foreign ownership alters packer behavior within the U.S. marketplace. He emphasizes foreign firms have made large investments in U.S. facilities and continue to operate them by the same market logic that would govern domestic ownership.

He also points out it is unclear who else would be in a position to make such significant investments if these foreign companies were not involved. This pragmatic view suggests the ownership issue might be less important than is commonly believed, at least concerning everyday operations and market outcomes.

A Lot Hinges on Rebuilding the Cow Herd

In his latest article, “ All Bets are Off ,” Peel says: “The latest edition in the torrent of recent political attentions directed at the cattle and beef industry includes allegations of market manipulation against the beef packing industry. Beef packers are the one segment that has been most negatively impacted in the current market, incurring huge losses due to poor margins and limited cattle supplies.”

(Meat Institute)

Peel reports packers have been losing enormous amounts of money for about the past 18 to 24 months. According to the Meat Institute, packer margins slipped into the red in September 2024. Through the week ending Oct. 4, 2025, packer margins were a negative $126.50 per head, up slightly from a year earlier at a negative $125.65 per head, according to Sterling Profit Tracker. The outlook for the year is a negative $165.96 per head packer margin.

“There’s just simply not enough cattle for them to operate at cost efficient capacities,” Peel explains.

This negative trend was anticipated — the reduced supply of cattle has made it difficult for packing plants to function at cost-efficient capacities, leading to the accumulation of operating losses. Peel points out the combination of low unit margins and insufficient cattle supplies challenges the economic viability of packers, further illustrating the complexity of the current environment.

This decline in inventory is not the result of a single factor but is driven by several years of drought and other market pressures. It is clear high beef and cattle prices are a result of these tight supplies and, according to Peel, these high prices are likely to persist for several years. The industry simply cannot turn around production levels quickly, and it will take time — a matter of years, not months — for conditions to normalize.

“Using logic that only works in the office of a politician, packers are supposedly wielding unacceptable market power while paying record high cattle prices and artificially raising beef prices … but not enough to avoid losing a couple hundred dollars on every animal they process — certainly many millions of dollars,” Peel says. “If beef packers had any significant ability to exercise market power, I am certain that we would not have record high cattle prices and packers would not be losing money.”

Peel suggests the federal government attacks on beef packers are aided and supported by a vocal minority of the cattle industry and a few sympathetic politicians who view packers as a perennial villain and always worthy of attack anytime the opportunity is presented.

“The timing of such attacks this time is particularly puzzling as dismantling the packing industry would certainly jeopardize current record high cattle prices and the best economic returns most producers have ever enjoyed,” Peels says. “I guess some cowboys just can’t stand prosperity.”

R-CALF CEO Bill Bullard says the cattle market is fundamentally broken citing years of an inverse relationship between falling cattle prices and increasing retail beef prices when the only ingredient in beef is cattle. Read more about his perspective.

Patience not Politics

Beef and cattle prices, Peel notes, are historically high, a result of industry-wide low cattle inventory. Rebuilding the nation’s cow herd will be a long, slow process, keeping prices elevated for an extended period. And Peel says there is no definitive evidence producers are saving heifers to start the rebuilding process.

“2025 may prove to be technically the cyclical low, but 2026 is going to be barely bigger, if it is, and no growth in 2026 and probably none in 2027 ... it’s 2028 into 2029 before that turns into increased beef production,” Peel predicts.

He summarizes neither regulatory nor political action will can speed up the rebuilding process. It will take years of concerted effort, market healing and stability before the industry can expect a meaningful rebound in herd numbers and production — a reality that requires patience across the industry.

“There is absolutely nothing anybody can do to make beef prices go down, or cattle prices, other than maybe tear up the industry completely,” Peels says. “And if we tear up the industry, it’ll make cattle prices go down, but it won’t make beef prices go down. It’ll make beef prices go even higher for consumers and the only way to fix this is to give the industry time to rebuild, and that’s going to take two to four years if we ever get started.”

He says a majority of cattle producers understand the beef industry is extremely complex and all segments are critical and essential.

“Though the outcome of current political actions is uncertain, the potential for long-term harm to the industry is substantial,” Peel says. “Anytime politics trumps economics, the strong supply and demand fundamentals that have determined the outlook for the industry to this point become irrelevant. Expectations for prices and production going forward are now completely clouded…therefore… all bets are off.”

Your Next Read: You Be The Judge: The Big Bad Beef Packers Are On Trial

From Corn to Cattle: Farmers Pivot to Create Profit

Thu, 23 Oct 2025 21:03:47 GMT

With commodity prices under pressure and input costs on the rise, many row-crop farmers are evaluating their options and looking for new revenue opportunities in the process.

For Troy and Stacy Hadrick, that required making a bold shift in their farming operation about four years ago. They started converting much of their South Dakota cropland to pasture and expanding their cowherd.

It’s a path no one would describe as easy. But as Troy puts it, “You’re going to do something hard if you’re in agriculture, so choose your hard.”

The Hadricks, based near Faulkton, say moving away from commodity corn, soybeans and wheat to a more direct, value-added beef production model is giving them more control over their product and their bottom line.

“We want to take ourselves out of the ebbs and flows of the commodity market, and we believe our beef business is viable long-term,” says Troy.

The Hadricks’ business includes selling beef direct to nine restaurants, a caterer, grocery store and even to a gas station that sells high-end meat. Learn more at hadrickranch.com/

Farmers Put Marginal Crop Ground Into Grass
As the Hadricks tried to decide whether to focus more on their beef business, and less on commodity grains, two things encouraged them to move forward with cattle: the marketplace and some of their land that’s prone to erosion.

“We started thinking about what could we do on some of this crop ground to be better stewards of that land – to think about it in a different purpose,” Troy recalls.

When the Hadricks learned about a Ducks Unlimited (DU) program that fit with their goals, they signed on to convert an additional 250 acres of cropland to pasture to feed cattle.

“They help cover the cost of that land while it’s sitting idle for a couple years, allowing the grass to establish,” Troy notes.

Bruce Toay, manager of DU conservation programs in South Dakota, says the organization is working with 58 farmers across the as part of its Working Grasslands Partnership.

DU provides annual payments to farmers for the first three years of their participation in the program, based on local CRP rates. After establishment, cooperators are able to utilize the forage by haying or grazing for the remainder of the 10-year commitment.

Payment rates reflect the land quality: in southeast South Dakota, where soils are more productive, rates can be $200 or more per acre. In the northwest part of the state, rates are usually $20 to $30 per acre.

“We can help install pipelines and tanks, and sometimes drill wells—whatever it takes to ensure a reliable water source,” Toay adds. “You can’t have a good grazing plan without water.”

Currently, South Dakota farmers have enrolled 12,000 acres with DU, which aims to expand the program to 25,000 acres. The program goes through 2029.

“We’re really pushing to find more interested cooperators and get more acres back into grass,” says Toay.

Beyond DU, other organizations investing in habitat restoration in regions of the U.S. include Pheasants Forever and Quail Forever .

More Short-Term Opportunities Wanted
While the Hadricks are finding success in a long-term strategy of moving to beef production, most U.S. farmers are exploring short-term revenue streams rather than a permanent exit from row crops.

Jay Parsons, an agricultural economist at the University of Nebraska–Lincoln, says that for most farmers, converting cropland to permanent pasture rarely pencils out—unless the goal is to leave row-crop farming altogether and sell off equipment.

“Otherwise, it makes a lot more sense to go with annual forages, because it’s easier to switch back to crops when markets change,” he notes.

In some scenarios, farmers rent their ground in the fall for cattle to come in and graze cornstalks, adds Mary Drewnoski, UNL professor and beef systems Extension specialist. Another common practice is to charge beef producers a fee to graze cattle on cover crops.

“That’s probably the simplest thing for a farmer to do – have somebody else come in with cattle and graze the fields,” she says. “Basically, you give them access and get a paycheck.”

Grazing rates can vary significantly. Drewnoski says going rate in the eastern part of Nebraska is $10 to $15 an acre. In the western part of the state, farmers can charge in the neighborhood of $30 an acre.

“It’s a matter of supply and demand, and there’s more demand there,” Drewnoski explains.

She believes row-crop growers based in any area that also supports cattle production can likely find ways to add revenue from grazing cattle, either their own animals or through leasing ground to local beef producers.

The one thing she says is of utmost importance to do in the process is to develop a clear, written lease agreement spelling out the details that can keep everyone on the same page and relationships intact.

Key terms to define in a lease agreement include the rental rate, payment schedule, specific stocking rate, along with a clear outline of responsibilities for fencing, water, and general pasture maintenance. The agreement should also cover conditions for renewal or termination and any provisions for insurance, recommends Purdue University Extension.

When executed well, Drewnoski says partnerships between row-crop growers and livestock producers can be mutually rewarding. “There can be real beauty in this if you’re a crop farmer and you find the right cattleman to partner with,” she says. “It can open up doors for you both to benefit.”

Your next read: Breeding for New Markets: How University of Minnesota is Working to Boost the Oil Content in Soybeans

Are We Seeing Signs of Herd Rebuilding?

Mon, 15 Sep 2025 13:46:26 GMT

The U.S. beef cow inventory has reached its lowest point since 1962, marking what appears to be the bottom of the current cattle cycle. Tight supply is driving the strong pricing environment beef producers are enjoying today.

“For cow-calf producers right now, things are as good as they’ve probably ever been,” says Troy Rowan, University of Tennessee assistant professor. “Even though things are really good, producers are conscientious and vigilant about potential challenges,” Rowan summarizes.

Agreeing with Rowan, South Dakota cattleman Ken Odde adds while profits are currently strong, inflation quickly erodes economic gains. He stresses the importance of risk management and diversification.

Early Signs of Herd Rebuilding?

This is the million-dollar question: Are there encouraging signs of expansion?

“The beef industry is not currently in herd expansion mode, with producers hesitant to retain heifers due to high costs and economic uncertainties,” says Dave Weaber, Terrain senior animal protein analyst.

In Drovers State of Industry Report to be released the week of Sept. 15, we breakdown the July USDA cattle inventory and cattle on feed reports. While the USDA reports showed the smallest U.S. herd in history and continuing tightening numbers on feed, analysts predict producers have not experienced the highest cattle prices, yet.

“Our national herd size has the industry at an interesting point,” Rowan says. “Prices are at all-time highs, inputs are reasonable and more cow-calf enterprises are profitable than ever. When the industrywide rebuild will happen remains up in the air, but producers are keeping in mind that the high-flying industry right now is not going to stick around forever. They’re starting to adopt new technologies, leveling up their crossbreeding programs and expand opportunities for non-cattle related income on their ranches.”

Weaber adds producers need to be intentional about herd expansion, understanding the financial implications of adding new cattle.

Beef-on-Dairy Fills the Beef Supply Gap

“The current dynamics of supply is going to be a challenge,” says Jarrod Gillig, Cargill senior vice president, managing director for beef.

Gillig summarizes the cattle industry is experiencing a critical period of transition. He doesn’t expect the cow herd to return to previous peak levels of 32 million head. Instead, he predicts the gap in supply will be filled by beef-on-dairy calves.

Nick Hardcastle, Cargill senior director of meat grading and technical specialist, explains how the beef-on-dairy calves are an upgrade to the traditional Holstein steer and the positive impact they are making on beef supply.

“Beef-on-dairy is more desirable because it helped overcome several Holstein difficulties,” he says. “Improvements include red meat yield — more meat to a consumer — as well as improved acceptance in branded programs.”

Hardcastle says the beef-on-dairy cattle are filling the supply gap by filling pens in the Plains states where feeders are needed, and they are widely accepted by feeders and packers.

Defining Future Beef Producer Success

Odde says the beef industry is not just surviving but positioning itself for significant transformation.

“Producers who remain flexible, technologically savvy and strategic in their approach will be best positioned to thrive in this changing environment,” he says.

Weaber agrees saying successful producers will be those who can adapt, manage costs effectively and align themselves with evolving market trends.

“Don’t let cost get away from you,” Weaber warns, emphasizing that “being a low-cost, high-productivity producer means you get to make money seven, eight or nine years of the cycle.”

He stresses the importance of understanding financial implications, particularly during market transitions.

“If we’re not working on the business, we can’t work in the business,” Weaber adds, summarizing his philosophy regarding producers’ need to adopt more strategic, data-driven approaches.

The State of the Beef Industry Report includes input from nearly 500 beef producers. The annual report provides information to help producers when making decisions. Click here to download the full report.

Your Next Read: 47% of Beef Producers Plan to Increase Herd Numbers

Why Aren't High Beef Prices Causing Sticker Shock With Consumers?

Wed, 23 Jul 2025 19:37:01 GMT

Gound beef prices across the U.S. continue to reach new highs. Retail prices for ground beef hit its highest level in history in June climbing above $6 per pound, while steaks were up 8% at $11.49 per pound.

(Bureau of Labor Statistics )

“The record high retail beef price reported by the most recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) has prompted a lot of calls about why prices are record high and whether there is any relief in sight,” says David Anderson, Texas A&M Extension economist for livestock and food product marketing. “While we often write about the great cattle prices for producers who are selling, there is a flip side, and that is consumers who are buying beef.”

Anderson explains reduced slaughter and beef production, especially in the second quarter of the year, cut supplies just as grilling season heated up for seasonal beef demand. The combination led to a spike in wholesale prices and retail beef prices.

Don Close, Terrain senior animal protein analyst, says: “What we have seen so far is consumers have been incredibly loyal to protein collectively, but they have been especially loyal to beef, and beef is actually continuing to gain market there, even at the current prices at the expense of the other protein.”

Wages Are Keeping Pace With Beef Prices

Close says when he correlates the monthly all fresh beef price to hourly wages he found they are in lock step.

“Yes, beef prices have escalated, but beef prices have not risen any faster than the improvement in overall hourly wage,” he explains. “So from the consumer’s perspective, their share of their paycheck committed to beef is essentially the same as it’s been on a comparative basis for years.”

(Don Close, Terrain )

Other contributing factors to beef demand include consumers’ craze for protein and the impact of GLP-1 diets on protein consumption.

Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says: “I think beef demand has just proven time and time again — hey, consumers want it. It’s a great healthy protein, and I think it’s got a lot of good traction here over the last year of being a good quality source of food.”

High Quality Attracts Consumer Spending

Plus, with 82% to 84% of the beef produced grading Choice or better, the high quality of beef is pushing demand.

“I don’t see any weakness really in the consumers or their spending habits,” says Mike Minor, professional ag marketing. “We actually are eating more Prime meat today than Choice for the first time ever. So, people like their expensive meat still.”

How Long Will High Cattle and Beef Prices Last?

Last week USDA reported average fed cash cattle prices hit the second-highest level in history at $237.78, up 57¢ from the average the prior week.

The high cattle and beef prices continue to be driven by tight cattle numbers, the Mexican boarder closing due to New World screwworm and looming import challenges.

Yet, Close says the role of strong demand can’t be ignored and is likely to continue.

“I think it’s certainly through 2026 and really more realistic somewhere deep into 2027,” he adds.

Anderson explains normal seasonal production and demand would suggest prices falling from recent highs. Evidence from the wholesale beef market over the last couple of weeks indicates lower prices.

“Seasonal price patterns would suggest that there is a chance for a little bit of relief from record high beef prices,” Anderson says. “But, only if we compare to the peak price this summer. Wholesale beef prices are already declining.”

He adds there is a time lag from lower wholesale prices showing up at retail, but lower wholesale prices combined with normal seasonality of various cut prices should lead to the expectation of falling prices in the coming months.

“But, it’s not likely that prices will decline below year-ago levels,” Anderson emphasizes.

Inventory Reports Release on July 25

Close says more will be known about supply levels after the USDA Cattle on Feed and Cattle Inventory reports on Friday.

“While market analysts expect lower placements, marketings and cattle in feedyards than a year ago, the really interesting number will be the number of heifers on feed on July 1,” Anderson summarizes. “The heifers on feed will provide some insight into heifer retention. Also, look for placements in Texas due to the ban on Mexican feeder cattle. The lack of spayed heifers coming from Mexico is important in evaluating the number of heifers on feed.”

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Is Food Inflation Heating Up July 4th Grills?

Wed, 25 Jun 2025 17:44:50 GMT

Two industry reports are shining a light on the cost of a July 4^th barbecue.

The economists at Wells Fargo calculate an at-home holiday party for 10 will cost $130. The menu includes chicken breasts, beef sliders, hot dogs, fresh fruit, a vegetable platter, potato salad, corn bread, cake, apple pie, ice cream, beer, wine and soda.

Dr. Michael Swanson, chief agricultural economist within Wells Fargo’s Agri-Food Institute, says year-over-year food inflation is 2.2%.

For notable food prices from the July 4^th report, he cites the following:

Ground beef: Up 7.4%
Boneless chicken breasts: Up 1%
Watermelon and strawberries: Down 0.6%
Potatoes: Up 1%
Egg prices: Up 40%
Ice cream (1.5 quart): Up less than 1%

Swanson says beef prices year over year have been running 6% to 8% higher.

“When you talk to somebody who’s a processor or a packer, there’s not a part of the cow that moves independent from the other parts of the cow so it’s all right in that category 6% to 8% on a year over year basis the last couple of months based on CPI,” he says.

He says for cost-savings, chicken offers the greatest opportunities in the protein category.

“When you look at the composite pricing from USDA, it’s right around $2.42 to $2.45 a pound — including everything from wings and breasts,” he says.

As for hot dogs, Swanson says the blend inside the casing will drive the price.

“If you go with the all-beef frankfurters, yes, they’re up substantially. If you look for a sausage or bratwurst that has a blend of pork and beef in it, you’re probably finding a much better bargain. Pork has been pretty flat year over year,” he says.

Swanson says the effects of highly pathogenic avian influenza are still being reflected in higher egg prices for menu items such as deviled eggs and salads.

As for ice cream, Swanson says the increase in cost is being attributed to additional labor expense in production.

“We’re seeing a little bit of inflation in that category, but just very modest. We have a good supply of cream and milk in the country right now. The dairymen are doing wel. So, what that reflects is kind of that cost of transformation,” he says.

Wells Fargo uses NeilsenIQ data for its analysis.

American Farm Bureau Market Basket Survey
Using its annual survey, The American Farm Bureau Federation says this year’s food prices are resulting in the second-highest cost for an at-home July 4^th barbecue since 2013 when the survey began.

“High prices don’t mean more money for farmers, however. Farmers are price takers, not price makers. Their share of the food retail dollar is just 15%. The cost of running their farm is up — from labor and transportation to taxes,” says AFBF associate economist Samantha Ayoub.

Per AFBF, this year’s cost for an Independence Day cookout will cost $70.92 for 10 people. Included in the calculations are cheeseburgers, chicken breasts, pork chops, potato salad, strawberries and ice cream.

Last year was the highest cost found by the survey at $7.39 per person.

Year-over-year retail price increases in 2025 include:

2 lb. of ground beef: Up 4.4% to $13.33
Pork and beans: Up 20¢ to $2.69
Potato salad: Up 6.6% to $3.54

Notable reductions, compared to 2024, in food prices per the survey were:

3 lb. package of pork chops: Down 8.8% to $14.13
Chips: Down 10¢ to $4.80 a bag
Hamburger buns: Down 2.6% to $2.35

Trump Plans to Ease Trade Tensions by Reducing Tariffs On Chinese Goods

Thu, 24 Apr 2025 13:48:40 GMT

Comments President Donald Trump made at a White House press briefing on Tuesday have signaled the U.S. trade war with China is about to de-escalate.

The 145% import tax rate imposed on Chinese goods will “come down substantially, but it won’t be a zero,” Trump said.

“I don’t know if we can call what President Trump did on China a U-turn, but some people are calling it that,” AgriTalk Host Chip Flory said on Wednesday. He asked guests what their level of support is for what the Trump administration is doing on trade currently.

“I think he’s doing what needed to be done,” said Scott McGregor a cattleman and grain producer from northeast Iowa, near Nashua.

McGregor said he wants to see a level playing field for the U.S. in its trade efforts and negotiations with China.

“China needs to be a trade partner, not just a trading destination. That’s a lot of it,” McGregor said. Get the complete AgriTalk discussion here .

Financial Losses In The U.S. Beef Industry

Beef producers are reported to be “losing up to $165 per head on cattle currently, due to the absence of Chinese competition for high-value cuts like short rib and chuck. That’s a $4 billion annual blow to the U.S. beef sector…,” reported The Scottish Farmer last week.

McGregor said he would like to see the U.S. open up new markets for its beef and grain products to increase opportunities and minimize potential risks from future tariffs.

“China is not our only destination for our ag products, right? We need to expand our horizons as much as we can,” McGregor said.

When U.S. cattlemen start talking about market opportunities, Flory said they often turn their focus on Australia. The U.S. imports about $3-billion worth of beef from Australia a year.

“Australia doesn’t import any beef from the U.S., and there’s cattlemen here that would like to see that fixed,” Flory said. “But the issue is, there’s only, what, 30 million people in Australia?”

Furthermore, Australia has a lot of beef to export that the U.S. needs for use in hamburger, McGregor said.

“I know people don’t want us to import it, but Nellie bar the door if we couldn’t import beef from Australia for grinding,” he said. “Our demand is so huge here in the United States that we have got to import it. It has to meet all the specs that our beef does for importation, and it isn’t like we’re just willy-nilly importing some beef. We need it bad. And yes, it’d be great if they took some of our beef, but they don’t have the population.”

China has turned its attention and dollars to accessing more Australian beef, as well. According to Meat and Livestock Australia, Australian grain-fed beef exports to China surged almost 40% in February and March year-on-year, according to The Scottish Farmer article.

“Australian beef finds itself in a rare sweet spot – a prime cut of opportunity in a world of lean margins,” the article said.

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Food Inflation, Threatened Tariffs: What Is The Effect On Super Bowl Snack Tables?

Mon, 03 Feb 2025 20:14:53 GMT

Whether it’s chicken wings (up 7%) or vegetables for the snack tray (broccoli is down 7%), Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute Economist Dr. Michael Swanson says consumers shouldn’t expect every snack food category to increase their budget for a traditional Super Bowl party. And he doesn’t think President Trump’s latest trade talks with Mexico, Canada and China will have a direct, immediate effect at the grocery store by Sunday’s big game.

“It’s unlikely that changes in tariffs will impact prices headed into the Super Bowl, however, we’ll see how it plays out in the coming weeks. This is certainly the year for consumers to stay food fluent,” Swanson says.

For the past four years, he’s led the team at Wells Fargo to look at popular categories for game day watch parties and analyze the pricing trends. His research aims to help consumers stay “food fluent” to find alternatives, substitutions and bargains when they can.

“We started in 2021 when we saw the first spike in food inflation. And the past three years, everything has been up—it was a question of how much a category was up that year,” Swanson says. “But for 2025, some categories are up, and some are not. Some are way up; and some are way down.”

Swanson says it’s demand keeping prices elevated—not supply.

“Take chicken wings. Did the avian influenza knock out the chicken wings? The answer is, no, it didn’t–it was mainly the egg laying flocks. We have almost more chicken wings than we did last year, but prices are up 7%. Why? It’s consumer demand,” he says.

For dairy products, the Super Bowl is one of the top three demand events.

“Between the nachos, pizzas and sundry cheese-based snacks, the industry knows that and prepares well in advance making sure all the fans have what they need,” he says. “Dairy as a category was up 1.3% from a year ago, but it has been a relatively flat pricing environment for the last 18 months. Consumers and producers have found a good balance overall.

Specific to ongoing trade developments and tariffs discussions, Swanson says the dairy industry is staying keenly aware.

“Exports are a key element for balancing U.S. dairy production and demand. The industry is preparing to see what happens with key markets like Mexico and Canada in the near term,” he says.

He says the same could play out for avocados, which is notable given the tariff discussions on Mexico—our No. 1 source country for avocados.

“The question is, is the supply substitutable. With avocados, we’re seeing a push to grow more in Ecuador, Peru, and Colombia,” he says.

While longer-term supplies may be diversified, it takes years for trees to bear fruit. And for now, per the Wells Fargo Super Bowl Report, avocado prices are up over 11%.
Two other vegetables up year-over-year are red bell peppers (up 7.4%) and prepared carrots (up 3.4%)

So what categories went down in year-to-year pricing?

Notably, some vegetables are down including celery (down 8.4), broccoli (down 7.2%) and cauliflower (down 3.8%).

A more robust supply of potatoes has yielded a decline in potato chips prices, which are 5.1% lower. Also when it comes to overall pre-packaged foods, the container prices have come down, so increases in transport costs aren’t being passed along to the consumer as they have been in the past.

If you’re looking for a “bargain” Swanson points to store brand frozen pizzas.

“Some of those carbohydrate-based components are down through competition. Something like frozen pizzas, for example are down from a year ago. And especially you look at those store Brand pizzas are way down. They’re down about 8% versus just 2% for the national brand. So if you really want to save money, competition is your friend.”
As for protein, the biggest price decline has been in shrimp with a 4% lower price this year than last.

Retail beef prices remain elevated.

“It’s not that we have poor supply of beef. We’re doing some interesting dynamics right now, exporting a little bit less, importing, a little bit more, putting more pounds on those cows,” Swanson says. “We have a decent supply of beef, but the price is still up 3.5% to 4% as a category from a year ago. The consumers love it, and they’re going to pay for it.”

His advice overall in this food economic environment is to stay a smart shopper.

“We’re entering a competitive situation right now–we’re seeing things go up and things go down. If a product matters to you, get out the on the web, shop a couple of stores, because one of the things we do find is promotions are back in the game.”

USDA Says Farm-level Egg Prices Could Jump Another 45.2% in 2025 Due to Avian Flu

Fri, 24 Jan 2025 20:54:38 GMT

The January 2025 Food Price Outlook released Friday shows while food price inflation has slowed overall, key sectors like eggs and beef remain volatile due to supply chain and input cost pressures.

Egg prices saw the biggest spike, according to USDA’s data, up 37% year-over-year. But the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows the price of Grade A eggs in December was up 93% since January 2024. And when you look ahead, USDA expects outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza to continue to cause egg prices to climb.

When it comes to USDA’s specific outlook released Friday, the agency uses recent trends in food prices based on Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data through December 2024.

Key Highlights of the report include:

Overall inflation trends:
- Food prices increased by 2.5% year-over-year as of December 2024
- Food-at-home prices rising by 1.8% and food-away-from-home prices increasing by 3.6%.
2025 forecasts:
- Food prices expected to rise by 2.2%, slower than the historical average.
- Food-at-home prices predicted to grow by 1.3%, while food-away-from-home prices are forecast to increase by 3.6%.
Insights Within Categories:
- Egg prices saw a sharp rise of 36.8% year-over-year in December 2024, with 2025 prices projected to climb by 20.3% amid ongoing supply constraints.
- Beef and veal prices are expected to increase modestly by 1.5% in 2025, following a 4.9% rise in 2024.
- Pork and fats/oils prices are forecast to decline in 2025, with decreases of 0.8% and 1.6%, respectively.
- Fresh fruit prices are anticipated to rise by 0.7%, while dairy product prices are expected to increase by 1.3%.

Producer Price Insights:

The PPI, which tracks wholesale prices, suggests continued volatility in farm-level and wholesale markets, with significant fluctuations predicted for eggs, milk, and fruits due to factors such as extreme weather and disease outbreaks. Farm-level egg prices are expected to see a sharp increase of 45.2% in 2025, with a wide prediction interval reflecting uncertainty.

Overall, while food price growth is expected to moderate compared to recent years, specific categories remain susceptible to sudden price shifts driven by global and domestic factors.

What’s the Deal with Egg Prices?

Sticker shock with eggs stared shoppers in the face to end 2024. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the increase is even more staggering. They show the average cost of a dozen Grade A large eggs was $4.15 in December, up from $3.65 in November and $2.15 in January 2024.

According to livestock economists at Texas A&M University, the widespread outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza, or HPAI, continue to be the culprit, driving egg prices to record highs across the U.S. Commercial laying flocks have been hit especially hard.

“There is seasonality to egg prices based on demand, but the cutting of supplies, in this case by disease, has driven prices higher,” says David Anderson, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension economist and professor in the Texas A&M Department of Agricultural Economics . “I wouldn’t be surprised to see them go higher in the next report, but there is price volatility when you consider the supply and demand factors in play.”

USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service reports since first detected in 2022, 1,410 flocks have been impacted, including 637 commercial operations. As a result, 134.7 million birds have been culled.

Georgia Hit for First Time By Avian Flu

Just last week, the largest poultry producing state in the nation reported its first case of avian flu. The Georgia Department of Agriculture confirming the virus at a farm in Elbert County. In reaction, the Georgia Depart of Agriculture says all poultry exhibitions, swaps, meets and sales have been suspended as a precaution. The Department says cleanup is currently underway and nearby operations are under quarantine.

According to Greg Archer, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension poultry specialist and associate professor in the Texas A&M Department of Poultry Science , one reason the HPAI is spreading so quickly is because of environmental conditions. According to Archer, the disease prefers temperatures below 90 degrees.

“Farmers take biosecurity seriously because they’ve been dealing with the threat for years,” he said. “The big question this time is the strain mutations and how outbreaks in poultry facilities are occurring.

Archer also says migratory birds have historically been the main carrier of the disease. The pathogen will enter the poultry house through migratory bird feces on the bottom of the show or by a truck of vehicle that transports materials or feed between farms.

The Time It Takes to Rebuild

Once a flock is hit, the operation culls the animals, and replacing lost birds takes times. According to Archer, it can take 20 or more weeks for birds to develop from incubated eggs to pullets to production-ready laying hens.

In some cases, entire farms are wiped out. Archer says farmers bring those farms back online in phases to stagger their production by new and older birds.

As they do so, the eggs produced by younger and older birds are typically smaller while hens in their prime lay large to jumbo eggs.

And the key in building back the supply of eggs in the U.S., according to Archer, is rebuilding the flocks impacted by avian flu.

The other recent wild card, is recent transmission patterns in new animals, including dairy cows and pigs.

Consumer Demand and the Unknown

Now the question is how much consumers are willing to pay, and if it will impact demand?

“Producers will be expanding their flocks to produce more eggs to meet demand and capitalize on the high prices, while consumers might cut back,” says Anderson. “That combination aligning with fewer instances of avian influenza as the weather warms up would likely put downward pressure on prices. There is a natural ebb and flow to egg prices from seasonal supply and demand, and HPAI has just added volatility to the market.”

Three Florida Men Sentenced in $9-Million Frozen Meat Crime Ring

Wed, 23 Aug 2023 14:35:15 GMT

Arrested for approximately 45 thefts totaling over $9 million in loss, three Florida men have been sentenced for stealing semi-loads of frozen beef and pork from packing plants across six Midwest states.

Starting in June 2021, the criminal enterprise, based in Miami, Fla., targeted meat packing plants in Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, South Dakota, North Dakota and Wisconsin.

Two of nearly 45 theft events include $100,000 in pork products stolen from the JBS plant in Ottumwa, Iowa , and three semi-trailers loaded with beef stolen from the JBS USA plant in Grand Island, Neb.

Investigators at the Lancaster County Nebraska Sheriff’s Office, along with Homeland Security Investigation (HIS) Omaha, utilized cell phone records and GPS tracking devices to identify and arrest three suspects involved in the criminal enterprise on Oct. 20, 2022.

Yoslany Leyva Del Sol, 39; Ledier Machin Andino, 38; and Delvis L. Fuentes, 40, were charged with transportation of stolen goods and money laundering in Florida’s federal court.

After pleading guilty to possession of stolen goods, in the U.S. District Court of the Southern District of Florida, the three men were sentenced to two years in federal prison, followed by three years of supervised release. The men were also ordered to pay, in total, more than $206,000 in restitution.

Post-Pandemic Meat Processing Plants: Survival of the Fittest

Tue, 18 Jul 2023 18:56:12 GMT

The U.S. meat processing industry has become a focus of policymakers following the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2021, USDA announced a $1 billion investment to expand meat and poultry processing capacity in small and medium plants. Support for U.S. meat processing is increasing after President Biden issued an executive order in 2021 to promote competition in the U.S. economy, with a focus on supporting small family farms.

A recent study by Rural and Farm Finance Policy Analysis Center and the University of Illinois sheds light on factors contributing to the rise and fall of these plants.

The research analyzes characteristics related to the probability of meat processing plant survival, finding that business diversification is most important for smaller plants and local context is more important for larger plants.

On average, plants in the U.S. lasted for 9.7 years before failing, and most of them were found in counties with a higher population due to their proximity to workers and consumers.

The study revealed several additional insights:

Smaller plants that diversified into retail and wholesale meat markets were more likely to survive than those that did not.

Large plant survival was mostly associated with workforce quality and quantity, the availability of labor and higher concentrations of local plants in nonmetro areas.

Technical assistance might be needed to help smaller plants diversify into operating retail or wholesale meat markets, but this solution is not a one-size-fits-all approach and local demand and income will need to be sufficient to support the products.

Workforce solutions such as safety investments, automation research and development, and increasing work visas could improve the survival of large food processing plants in rural America.
Female-operated rural plants have higher failure rates, suggesting they might need additional technical assistance.

What Meat Product is Your State Most Hungry For? Data Shows Top Meat Volume Growth

Wed, 03 May 2023 16:44:19 GMT

When it comes to meat, what is your state most hungry for?

In a recent CoBank webinar featuring experts from Circana, Inc., data shows meat eaters across the nation are looking for variety and are open to trying new things, whether that’s experimenting with different cuts on the grill or air frying something typically cooked in other ways.

From chicken wings and thighs to pork shoulder to beef chuck and brisket, Melissa Rodriguez, principal in client insights at Circana, Inc., notes that the trends have a geographic component, creating “pockets” of consumer preferences.

According to data ending in March of this year, Rodriguez shares the following map, highlighting the top meat volume growth across the U.S. by state.

Rodriguez notes that consumers are looking for variety, including different meat sources and cuts of meat. Unfortunately, when looking at the meat department as a whole in the start of 2023, consumers have been found to buy less fresh meat by volume.

Specifically, 91% of shoppers said the cost of groceries is much higher than one year ago, with 24% also claiming to buy less meat and poultry.

While all meat options show a decrease in volume to start 2023, chicken has declined the least and has actually increased in total dollars of growth.

In the first quarter of 2023, Rodriguez suggests chicken reaped the benefits of retailers showcasing chicken breast as the “go-to” meat.

Circana estimates the net volume change, as a result of consumers switching protein choices, led to an increase in chicken purchases, pulling some market share from beef, pork and turkey. However, Rodriguez explains the volume increase in chicken is minimal.

Overall, shoppers continue to purchase across all proteins, she notes, but it’s more concerning that consumers are purchasing less.

So, how will the meat case re-attract consumers?

Along with decreased prices and inflationary pressures, Rodriguez says there are many opportunities in protein for the remainder of the year.

She believes relating to the consumer and connecting the various generations, including Boomers, Millennials and Generation Z, back to the meat case will be key. This includes education on how to prepare the different meats available, whether it be on the grill, the smoker or other cooking appliance, Rodriguez suggests.

Social media, especially through video content, may be a great driver to get consumers back to the meat case, she says, and the industry needs to be part of the conversation.

Convenience will also be a driver in 2023, helping consumers make mealtime easier and quicker in their homes.

As a whole, Rodriguez explains that there will likely be shifts and changes within the grocery stores in the coming months, where some aisles and departments “win” and others “lose.”

As a producer, what can you do to help be part of the conversation and encourage consumers to favor the meat case?

Munching on Mealworms: The Next Meat-Alternative Snack?

Wed, 05 Oct 2022 18:44:12 GMT

While plant-based meat alternatives seem to have lost their hype, scientists are working to develop another protein alternative—mealworms.

Over 2 billion people across the globe consume insects as part of their diet, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, while the thought of eating mealworms, grasshoppers and beetles sounds rather unappealing to most people in the U.S.

A recent Science Daily article claims, “insects are edible and could be a healthful alternative to traditional meat protein sources.”

With the rising cost of animal proteins such as beef , pork and lamb, as well as environmental concerns, the project’s principle investigator, In Hee Cho, Ph.D., explains there has been an increased interest in eating insects.

Containing high amounts of fatty acids, vitamins, minerals, fiber and high-quality protein, insects can be considered both a nutritious and healthy food source, the article claims.

Yet, the idea of munching on a mealworm remains unappetizing for a majority of meat-eaters.

Meat-like Mealworms

Scientists have set out to understand the insect’s flavor profile, comparing aromas of its lifecycle in egg, larva, pupa and adult stages.

Through a variety of cooking techniques, the mealworms gave off a diverse range of aromas. For instance, raw larvae had wet soil-like, shrimp-like and sweet corn-like aromas, while roasted or fried larvae had shrimp-like and fried oil-like attributes and created flavor compounds similar to those formed when meat and seafood are cooked.

Additionally, the mealworms were cooked with sugar to create caramelization reactions, producing meat-like and savory flavors.

Though mealworms will not likely take down the livestock industry any time soon, Cho is hopeful that the study’s results “will contribute to the commercial development of meat-like and savory flavorings and seasonings, and will encourage the convenience food industry to include edible insects in their products.”

Beef jerky, pork rinds or mealworm mix? Someday that could be up to you to decide.

McDonald's Targets Net Zero Emissions by 2050

Mon, 04 Oct 2021 21:16:55 GMT

McDonald’s Corp on Monday set a new target to cut global greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2050, from the beef in its burgers to the light bulbs in its restaurants.

The burger chain also said it was working with the nonprofit Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi) to revamp its existing climate change targets. It aims to lower absolute emissions by about a third for both its suppliers and its nearly 40,000 company-run and franchised restaurants around the world by 2030.

“We’re trying to send a signal to our partners, to our investors, to our suppliers, to other brands in the global community, to policymakers, that we share that vision for 2050,” McDonald’s Chief Sustainability Officer Jenny McColloch told Reuters in an interview.

United Nations scientists say the world’s net emissions must fall to zero by 2050 to limit the rise in global temperatures to no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius versus pre-industrial levels.

Net zero plans require companies to decrease carbon dioxide emissions and offset any remaining emissions using projects that capture the gas.

More than 1,000 companies have signed similar pledges through the UN or SBTi.

On Wednesday, funds managing nearly $30 trillion in assets called for 1,600 of the world’s most polluting companies to set science-based emissions targets, as wildfires, droughts and floods make slowing climate change more urgent. read more

McDonald’s is one of the largest beef purchasers in the world. Roughly 80% of its total emissions come from its supply chain, in particular its use of beef, chicken, dairy and other proteins. It will use new guidelines from SBTi, with which it already works, to focus on cutting emissions in agriculture, land use and forestry.

“Beef is a big opportunity to help drive impact in the world with our farmers and rancher partners,” McColloch said.

McDonald’s 2050 net zero goal includes emissions from direct sources like corporate offices and restaurants and indirect sources, particularly franchised restaurants and suppliers’ goods and services.