Pro Farmer Crop Tour News

How Pro Farmer 2025 Crop Estimates Compare and Contrast With USDA Expectations

Fri, 22 Aug 2025 20:35:41 GMT

As more than 100 crop scouts traversed dirt roads and two-lane highways, stopping dozens of times to sample corn and soybeans in seven Midwest states, they gathered insights to answer the question on many farmers’ minds this week: How would the Pro Farmer estimates compare to the numbers USDA-NASS released August 12?

The answer: Pro Farmer found a big corn crop but one that’s currently positioned to average 182.7 bu. per acre – 6.1 bu. below USDA’s 188.8 bu. projection.

“When we put the yield estimate out, it comes with a plus or minus 1% for corn and a plus or minus 2% for soybeans, and that’s because we know things can change yet,” says Chip Flory, host of AgriTalk and lead scout on the western leg of the tour.

“The other thing is the yield models that we use give us a range, and then, based on conditions, we can move within that range with the yield estimate that we’re going to pull,” he adds.

With that perspective in play, here’s how the Pro Farmer and USDA estimates compare:

Pro Farmer Corn Estimate (+-1%): 16.042 to 16.366 billion bushels; 180.9 to 184.5 bu. per acre average
USDA Corn Estimate: 16.7 billion bushels; 188.8 bu. per acre average

(ProFarmer)

Disease Pressure Across The Midwest Is Concerning
The 2025 growing season has been marred by heavy disease pressure in many of the corn and soybean crops Pro Farmer scouts evaluated this week.

It was an issue Lane Akre says showed up repeatedly in corn and soybean fields from the get-go, as tour scouts fanned out to check 2,000-plus fields across seven states: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio and South Dakota.

“We know disease can speed up the maturation of plants, making it difficult to keep them healthy long enough for optimal grain fill before harvest,” says Akre, Pro Farmer Economist and lead scout on the eastern leg of the tour. “We are concerned diseases like southern rust and tar spot could negatively impact corn yields in some of these states during the next few weeks.”

Soybeans Could Be the Star of the Season
USDA’s August estimate for the national soybean yield average is just slightly above what Pro Farmer scouts found in fields this week. Pro Farmer places the soybean yield average at 53.0 bu. per acre, with a total crop size of 4.246 billion bushels

By comparison, USDA expects soybeans to average a record high 53.6 bu. per acre, with a total crop of 4.29 billion bushels.

Pro Farmer Soybean Estimate (+-2%): 4.161 to 4.330 billion bushels; 51.9 to 54.1 bu. per acre

“One of the questions heading into the tour was whether the soybean crop could live up to the lofty expectations a lot of people have for it, and we found that it does,” Akre says. “There’s a massive crop out there in fields. We’re just hoping it can hold on until harvest – and outpace the disease pressure out there – to deliver on those big yields.”

Corn and Soybean Yield Summaries
Pro Farmer and AgWeb reported extensively throughout the tour — the highs and lows of each crop in each of the seven states. Here are summaries from each state. Click on the links to learn more details.

Illinois: Scouts reported an Illinois corn crop that looked lush from the road, but once they picked ears and pulled back husks, most described finding an average to above-average crop – not the record yield estimate USDA reported on August 12.

“The Illinois corn crop just wasn’t what we’d hoped,” Akre says. “USDA is anticipating a 1.7% jump from a year ago, and we’re actually down 2.2%.”

Indiana: Wet conditions from rain, fog and heavy due is causing some unevenness in Indiana corn and soybeans. Still, the state’s corn crop posted a yield number that came in 3.35% higher than its 2024 number.

From disease pressure to too much rain, some scouts found a solid soybean crop in Indiana, while other routes exposed extreme variability. Overall pod count numbers were down 2.30% from 2024.

Iowa: Scouts spent two days in the state gathering dozens of samples to gain insights and project yield estimates. Despite challenges from disease pressure, scouts reported a big corn crop with significant potential. Their estimates put the Iowa crop up 2.93% over 2024, and up 6.4% versus the three-year average.

“This Iowa crop has a very, very strong ear count, great grain inches — just a very consistent equation putting that corn yield together,” reports Emily Flory Carolan, Pro Farmer Crop Tour data consultant.

For soybeans, scouts found a massive crop, up 5.49% in the number of pods as compared to the 2024 crop.

Minnesota: The corn crop in Minnesota is currently heading for a record yield this season, if it can outpace disease pressure. Scouts recorded the longest grain inches in the corn there that have ever been measured in the tour’s history.

“That’s definitely what pulled up that yield average for us,” Carolan says.

Soybeans also show tremendous yield potential in Minnesota. Pod counts were up 20.38% this week versus 2024 counts, and up 19.9% versus the three-year average.

Nebraska: Adequate moisture is pulling up corn yields in the state this season, with some tour routes reporting 8% to 10% increases compared to 2024 and 2023. The much-improved corn yield estimates were a welcomed change, scouts say, after seeing corn there struggle in two back-to-back years of drought.

Soybeans also are promising big yield results, with pod counts up 15.0% this week over the 2024 estimate.

Ohio: Heavy rains last spring meant many farmers either got a late start to the growing season or they had to replant fields. The moisture extremes early on have resulted in considerable variability in fields from one end of the state to the other. Still, scouts say the Ohio crop has solid corn yield potential overall, citing possible records along some Pro Farmer Crop Tour routes.

The soybean pod factory in Ohio is going strong – with numbers up 4.66% this season over 2024 – but scouts caution a lack of late-season moisture is concerning. More rain is needed for the soybean crop there to finish well.

South Dakota: Based on USDA’s August crop estimates, scouts knew the possibility was there to uncover a big crop in South Dakota. Field estimates show record yield potential is possible , especially due to ample moisture this year that’s supported growth and development.

Soybeans might be an even better story in South Dakota this year. Pod counts came in at 15.9% above last year’s tour and well above the three-year average of 970.1 pods.

For more insights from the 2025 Pro Farmer Crop Tour:

Watch On-Demand: Pro Farmer Crop Tour Day 4 Results from Iowa and Minnesota

Watch On-Demand: Pro Farmer Crop Tour Day 3 Results from Illinois and Iowa

Watch On-Demand: Pro Farmer Crop Tour Day 2 Results from Indiana and Nebraska

Watch On-Demand: Pro Farmer Crop Tour Day 1 Results from Ohio and South Dakota

Crops vs. Foliar Diseases: A High-Stakes Race Underway in Midwest Fields

Fri, 22 Aug 2025 02:17:44 GMT

Two words sum up the concerns Pro Farmer Crop Tour scouts expressed about the corn and soybean crops they evaluated on Thursday in Minnesota and northeast Iowa: disease pressure.

Corn crops infected by southern rust and tar spot were a common sight in fields across both states during the fourth and final day of the tour.

“We saw disease in all of the fields we sampled today, though one of them really wasn’t too bad,” says Lane Akre, host of the eastern leg of the tour. “We saw a lot of early stages of tar spot, and we saw a lot of southern rust throughout.”

So it was no small surprise to the crowd attending Thursday night’s live broadcast when the final tally showed Pro Farmer’s corn estimate for Minnesota actually surpasses USDA’s 202-bu.-per-acre yield projection made August 12.

Pro Farmer estimates the Minnesota corn crop will average 202.86 bushels; that’s up 23.02% versus 2024 and up 13.41% versus the three-year average, according to Emily Flory Carolan, Pro Farmer Crop Tour data consultant.

“This crop is huge; it absolutely is,” Carolan says. “Minnesota is the only state on tour where we have recorded over a 200-bu. average this year. It is a record-year yield for the state.”

She adds that scouts recorded the longest grain inches in the crop that have ever been measured on the tour. “That’s definitely what pulled up that yield average for us,” she says.

Minnesota soybeans show similar yield promise, with final numbers pegged at 1247.86 pods in a 3' x 3' area. That’s up 20.38% versus last year, and up 19.9% versus the three-year average, Carolan reports.

(ProFarmer)

A Much Better Growing Season, So Far
The findings in Minnesota were a pleasant change from what scouts found in 2024, when weather seemed to jog between two extremes – drought and flooding – for much of the season.

Jaden Serbus, Pro Farmer tour scout and farmer based near Renville, Minn., says he was relieved to see Mother Nature had course corrected.

“Last year, the corn crop was only as high as my head, all yellow and stunted with very, very poor yields with all the rain,” Serbus recalls. “This year, many areas are like a garden spot.”

Minnesota District 8 & 9 (10 stops)
Nicolett, Le Sueur, Waseca, Steele, Dodge, Olmsted counties
🌱 Avg Pods in a 3X3 - 1262.80
🌽Avg Yield- 208.35#pftour25 @Feckersbrad73 pic.twitter.com/IklmOxDOTA
— McKenzie Feckers (@MFeckers) August 21, 2025

Northeast Iowa Crops Look Good, But…
As Akre and his team of scouts moved into northeast Iowa on Thursday morning, early yield estimates had Akre concerned results there could bring the state’s overall averages down.

“We saw a lot of drowned-out parts of fields, and that’s limited some of the ear size and counts as populations are down due to skips,” he says.

Despite some agronomic challenges, scouts recorded strong numbers that put the Iowa corn crop at 198.43 bu.-per-acre yield average for 2025. That’s up 2.93% versus last year, and up 6.4% versus the three-year average.

“This Iowa crop has a very, very strong ear count, great grain inches — just a very consistent equation putting that corn yield together,” Carolan reports.

Iowa soybeans are also looking to break yield records. The 2025 crop delivered a 1384.38 pod estimate average in a 3' x 3' area on Thursday; that’s up 5.49% versus last year and up 12.94% versus the three-year average.

(ProFarmer)

Linn Co. Iowa. Lots of tar spot and rust. 46 avg ear count, pretty light, but made some big ears. Yield est 208.53 but still a long way to go grain fill wise#pftour25 pic.twitter.com/efDDM6sbBG
— Lane (@iwatchcorn) August 21, 2025

“For the most part, the Iowa beans are pretty lush and the pod counts have been there, the soil moisture is up, so the potential is pretty high on beans...I think that’s been the real story the last couple of days — how many pods are out there,” Akre says.

But foliar diseases rearing up in Iowa fields have the potential to put the kibosh on record yields between now and harvest, reports Chip Flory, host of AgriTalk and lead scout on the western leg of the tour.

That concern is one reason he reminded crop tour listeners on Thursday that Pro Farmer’s current yield estimates could change before combines roll.

“When we put the corn yield estimate out, it comes with a plus or minus 1%. The soybean crop estimate comes with a plus or minus 2%, and that’s because things can change. We all know that,” Flory says.

“The other thing is the yield models that we use give us a range, and then, based on conditions, we can move within that range with the yield estimate that we’re going to pull,” he adds, noting that he wonders whether the soil moisture currently available will offset some of the discount scouts put on the crops because of the disease pressure that’s present.

At the end of the day, August 21, no one knows how the final corn and soybean yields will net out. As Flory notes, while there’s optimism about better yields coming in this harvest versus a year ago, the outcomes depend on how well the crops cross the finish line.

Watch On-Demand: Pro Farmer Crop Tour Day 3 Results from Illinois and Iowa

Watch On-Demand: Pro Farmer Crop Tour Day 2 Results from Indiana and Nebraska

Watch On-Demand: Pro Farmer Crop Tour Day 1 Results from Ohio and South Dakota

Iowa Corn Has High Potential, Illinois Crop Looks Average and Soybeans Shine in Both States

Wed, 20 Aug 2025 23:58:45 GMT

Bright orange is a great color for pumpkins but not so much for corn. Nonetheless, that was the prevailing color Brent Judisch reports seeing as he evaluated crops Wednesday morning in northwest Iowa’s Harrison County.

“Our first six or seven samples were terrible with southern rust,” says Judisch, a Pro Farmer Crop Tour scout and Iowa farmer. “We saw three fields in a row that were actually gross. I walked out of them just covered with it. After that, while we’ve seen it all day, it’s been more in the lower leaves and not nearly as drastic.”

Chip Flory, lead scout for the western leg of the tour, says the northwest Iowa crop is the best and worst he’s ever seen.

“In the snapshot that we took of it, and the measurables we saw in the field today, it is the best corn crop,” Flory reported during the tour’s nightly live broadcast.

But the disease pressure in the Iowa crop has Flory spooked.

“Disease pressure is putting a lot of bushels — a huge number of bushels — at risk,” he adds. “You can take 20, 30 bushels off of corn yield with what southern rust can do to the crop, even at this late stage in the game. It’s a dangerous crop that we’re looking at out here right now.”

Chip Flory says he was surprised to see corn that was well into R5 (dent) in northwest Iowa. “I can’t tell if it was this mature because of pressure from the southern rust, or if it was because of higher nighttime temperatures at pollination,” he reports. “I am concerned about how much disease is out here, and what it’s going to look like in another week or two.”

(Chip Flory, Host of AgriTalk)

Can The Iowa Corn Crop Still Hit A Record?
The Iowa corn results were a big shocker on Wednesday, given the amount of disease pressure scouts saw, according to Emily Flory Carolan, Pro Farmer Crop Tour data consultant.

“I would say all three districts were setting new records. They were consistently high in all measurements for corn in ear count, inches long and kernels around,” she says.

Carolan’s summary of the results scouts tallied in Iowa revealed some high yield estimates, despite the disease pressure:

*District 1 was 197.89 bushels, up 12.06% versus 2024 and up 9.89% versus the three-year average.

*District 4 was 207.25 bushels, up 5.82% versus last year and up 14.01% versus the three-year average.

*District 7 came in at 195.03 bushels, up 1.80% versus 2024 and up 6.35% versus the three-year average.

(ProFarmer)

Flory is concerned southern rust will impact standability in the Iowa crop, which he says is starting to dent in areas, and cause some of it to go down.

“I’d want to keep an eye on the stalk condition of this crop, because if this disease pressure continues, farmers are going to want to get out and prioritize fields for harvest before we get there,” he adds.

Illinois Corn Crop Looks Average
Scouts report the Illinois corn crop appears lush from the road, but once they walked out into fields, picked ears and pulled back husks, most described finding an average crop.

“We’ve seen some good corn, we’ve seen some average corn and we’ve some stuff that’s got a long way to go,” tour scout Jake Guse told U.S. Farm Report’s Tyne Morgan on Wednesday morning.

That perspective played out in the total results tallied and shared during the nightly tour meeting. Illinois corn averaged 196.19 bushels per acre, down 2.24% from last year but up 1.72% from the three-year average.

(ProFarmer)

Ninth and final stop 4 miles North of Roseville, IL. Population was very good at 34,000. The yield is 213. Kernel depth is just under a 1/2 inch. Some disease was showing up here including tar spot! Soybeans had 1778 pods in 3X3 area. #oatt #pftour25 pic.twitter.com/xAcDSxJL0q
— Darren Frye (@Frye_WSS) August 20, 2025

USDA-NASS estimates released August 12 project the Illinois corn crop will come in averaging 221 bu. per acre for the state, up 4 bushels over 2024.

That’s outside what Guse’s expectations are for the state.

“As you’re driving along the road, you can see ears that are already tipped over. I just don’t see it reaching [USDA’s projection],” he says.

Lane Akre, Pro Farmer economist and host for the eastern leg of the tour, agrees with Guse. He reports pulling several samples of corn that exceeded 200-bu. per acre as well as one that only hit 143 bushels.

“The Illinois crop just wasn’t what we’d hoped,” Akre says. “USDA is anticipating a 1.7% jump from a year ago, and we’re actually down 2.2%.”

Akre’s leg of the tour went through three Illinois counties that are typically heavy hitters for corn yields: Bureau County, Henry County and Rock Island County.

“There’s really good dirt through that area, and the farmers there are very good at actively managing their crops and what they do with fertilizer, herbicide and fungicide,” Akre notes. “We saw some poor emergence and that might’ve weighed on the samples we took.”

Soybeans Could Be the Star of the Season
Soybeans offered a better yield picture for Illinois farmers than the corn crop, Akre notes.

“We didn’t have a single sample in the state that was south of 1,300 pods in a 3’x3' square. We saw a lot of pods and a lot of potential out there,” he says.

The average counts Illinois scouts recorded was even higher than what Akre found, with an average of 1,479.22 pods in a 3’x3' square area. That is up 4.24% versus 2024 and up 12.65% versus the three-year average.

(ProFarmer)

Iowa soybean results across the three districts were equally impressive.

“This year’s crop is better than last year by far,” Greg Lehenbauer, Pro Farmer crop scout, told AgDay’s Michelle Rook. “They’ve had adequate rain across this part of Iowa almost all summer long.”

#pftour25 Day 3. Stop 2 Plymouth Co. IA. #Soybean pod count 816. @AgDayTV @FarmJournal @USFarmReport pic.twitter.com/GgmulwJ8UI
— Michelle Rook (@michellerookag) August 20, 2025

Carolan’s data confirmed the excellent soybeans that crop scouts found on Wednesday in all three districts:

*District 1 soybeans: 1,279.25 pods, up 15.38% versus 2024 and up 15.05% versus the three-year average.

*District 4 soybeans: 1,376.15 pods, up 9.73% versus 2024 and up 13.63% versus the three-year average.

*District 7 soybeans: 1,562.54 pods, up 14.37% versus 2024, and up 24.66% versus the three-year average.

(ProFarmer)

While Flory is cautiously optimistic about the Iowa soybean crop, he says stem rot and sudden death syndrome is taking root in more fields and threatening yield outcomes.

“Some of the routes through southern and west-central Iowa have seen a tremendous amount of disease issue on the soybeans, so I’ve got a feeling it’s going to look a lot different in a week than what it does right now,” he predicts. “Now, if it was September 10, that’d be one thing. But it’s August 20, and there’s still time for those bean diseases to take some yield away.”

Flory’s sentiment about what fields revealed in Iowa was shared by scout Brent Judisch.

“What it’s going to come down to here in the corn and the beans is, does the crop mature faster than the disease moves, or will disease outpace the crop?” Judisch says. “We won’t know for sure for another two or three weeks.”

Watch On-Demand: Pro Farmer Crop Tour Day 3 Results from Illinois and Iowa

Watch On-Demand: Pro Farmer Crop Tour Day 2 Results from Indiana and Nebraska

Watch On-Demand: Pro Farmer Crop Tour Day 1 Results from Ohio and South Dakota

About the Pro Farmer Crop Tour
The Pro Farmer Crop Tour is taking place Aug. 18-21, 2025. Simultaneously, the tour follows an eastern and western route, with the two culminating in Rochester, Minn. Nightly meetings in each location review daily results, scouting observations and historical comparison data. Attend nightly meetings in person or watch the nightly broadcast online at AgWeb.com/croptour .

10 Charts to Help Understand the January Data Dump From USDA

Fri, 10 Jan 2025 22:15:35 GMT

2024 Production and January 2025 Stocks

(Farm Journal)

The 2024 crop was big but not quite as large as USDA originally forecast last fall. In its annual crop production report, the agency released its final tally for 2024.

2024 Production and January 2025 Stocks

(Farm Journal)

USDA says the 2024 corn crop totaled 14.9 billion bushels, down 3% from the 2023 estimate, with a record-high average yield of 179.3 bushels per acre and ending stocks nearly 200 million bushels lower than its December forecast. That’s also well off USDA’s high of 183.8 bushels per acre from October and just slightly above the 2023 average of 177.3.

2024 Production and January 2025 Stocks

(Farm Journal)

“This report was more friendly than just about anybody had expected,” said Joe Vaclavik, the founder and president of Standard Grain. “They did adjust harvest acreage a little bit, but the end result was a crop size that was 276 million bushels smaller than what they had previously reported. This is a great thing for prices and it’s a great thing for farmers.”

2024 set a record for corn yield at 179.3 bu./acre

(USDA)

Vaclavik lamented the timing during an interview with Michelle Rook for U.S. Farm Report. He said better numbers a couple of months ago could have helped farmers make decisions during harvest about sales and storage. Corn futures rose following the report and analysts like Jim McCormick of AgMarket.Net say that’s likely to impact sales in the coming months.

“What’s it going to take to get that farmer to sell that next chunk of corn,” asks McCormick. “Fiscally, farmers are definitely feeling the pinch, and this is going to make for a little bit brighter picture. One thing to keep an eye on, though, new crop corn [futures] is not rising as fast as the old crop today.”

2024 Corn Yield by State vs 2023

(USDA)

The U.S. soybean crop is a different story in terms of production direction. USDA officially puts 2024 production at 4.37 billion bushels with a per acre average of 50.7. Both numbers are higher than last year and above USDA’s previous October per acre yield estimate of 53.1 bushels per acre.

“The report was a little bit friendlier for old crop, but the world situation is still an anchor on the whole complex,” Vaclavik says. “You’ve got these big South American crops expected and big, healthy global balance sheets for soybeans. Whereas in corn, things are tightening up a little bit.”

2024 USDA Soybeans to 50.7 bu./acre

(USDA)

The soybean futures market fought its way back above the psychologically significant $10 per bushel mark following the report release.

“With a very substantial crop, harvest underway in Brazil and selling likely to be aggressive with the Brazilian real as weak as it is, it’s hard for me to see the U.S. exceeding $11 and even then, that might be a stretch,” said Shawn Hackett with Hackett Financial Advisors.

2024 Soybean Yield and Change vs 2023

(USDA)

Looking back to the 2024 Pro Farmer Crop Tour, USDA’s numbers are right on par with the team’s estimates and margin of error. Pro Farmer put its estimates following a weeklong survey of fields in August at 14.97 billion bushels for corn on an average of 181.1 bushels per acre with a margin of error of +/- 1%. At minus 1%, the Pro Farmer estimate matches USDA final production numbers of 179.3.

“USDA’s final corn production estimate came in just 112 million bushels below where Pro Farmer pegged the crop in the third week of August following Crop Tour,” said Brian Grete, editor of Pro Farmer. “We realized the corn crop wouldn’t be as big as USDA estimated as of Aug. 1, though production ended up falling slightly more than we anticipated.”

On the soybean side, Pro Farmer was a little more optimistic, calling for 4.74 billion bushels of soybeans +/- 2% with an average yield of 54.9 bushels to the acre.

“We overestimated the soybean crop following Crop Tour,” Grete added. “At that time, the soybean crop had faced very few weather hurdles and was heavily podded. Unfortunately, a hot and dry finish robbed bushels before harvest.”

2025 Winter Wheat Plantings

(USDA)

Wheat futures ended about even following USDA’s final production tally and global outlook. It says 2024 production totaled 1.97 billion bushels on a 51.2 bushel per acre average. The wheat ending stocks of 798 million bushels were adjusted just slightly higher.

Also released in a flurry of final reports is the total acres seeded to winter wheat for the 2024/2025 crop year. This season USDA says 34.1 million acres are planted. That’s up 2% from a year ago. Crop ratings in Kansas, the nation’s largest winter wheat producer, for November, stood at 55% good to excellent. In early January good to excellent only described 47% of the state. That said, much of the winter wheat areas have seen moisture in the last couple of weeks in the form of snow, ice or rain.

Change in Winter Wheat Planted Acres from 2024 to 2025

(USDA)

Looking globally, USDA is calling for slightly larger supplies, lower consumption, reduced trade and higher ending stocks. The agency expects exports from Russia to fall by 1 million tons while India is dealing with record prices amid dwindling supplies and robust demand.

South American Production
While USDA shares its final U.S. production numbers from 2024, it’s also keeping an eye on the growing season underway in South America. In its World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) researchers are forecasting the Brazilian corn crop to be 127 million tonnes, which is right in line with its previous estimates in December but 5 million more than a year ago. Soybeans in Brazil are forecast to be 169 million tonnes. Also steady compared to previous estimates. In Argentina, widespread drought and dryness are a concern for crops now in the heart of the season. However, USDA says it’s sticking with the current production forecast calling for a 51 million ton corn crop and a 52 million ton soybean crop.

2025 WASDE Estimates for South American Crop Production

(Farm Journal)

“When you look at the Brazilian crop, they chose to leave it unchanged this time around,” said McCormick. “I think nine out of ten traders are looking for that crop to get bigger.”

PF Crop Tour Day 1: Scouts Find Higher Pod Counts in South Dakota, Lower Corn and Soybean Estimates in Ohio

Thu, 12 Sep 2024 15:29:52 GMT

The 32nd Pro Farmer Crop Tour kicked off on Monday with nearly 100 scouts in South Dakota and Ohio. The results from day 1 were released Monday night , with South Dakota and Ohio’s corn yield estimate coming in lower than what scouts found last year. Ohio’s soybean pod counts were also off from last year’s record, but scouts found higher soybean pod counts in South Dakota versus 2023.

South Dakota’s Results

South Dakota’s corn data from the Pro Farmer Crop Tour 2024

(Lori Hayes )

In South Dakota, Pro Farmer Crop Tour scouts found fields with fewer ears, but grain length was up compared with 2023.

South Dakota corn yield estimate: 156.51 bu. per acre, down 0.58% from 2023
Ear count: 84.42, down 5.11% from last year
Grain length: Up 6.44% from 2023

South Dakota’s soybean data from the Pro Farmer Crop Tour 2024

(Lori Hayes)

South Dakota’s pod counts were 1,025.89 in a 3’x3' square, which is up 1.27% from 2023.

Ohio’s Results

Ohio corn data from day 1 of Pro Farmer Crop Tour

(Lori Hayes)

Ohio’s corn yield estimate from the 2024 tour came in slightly lower than last year’s record.

Ohio corn yield estimate: 183.29 bu. per acre, down 0.35% from 2023
Ear count: 100.37, up .66% compared with last year
Grain length: Down 2.17% from last year

Ohio’s soybean data from the Pro Farmer Crop Tour 2024

(Lori Hayes)

Ohio’s soybean pod counts were down 1.84% from 2023 at 1,229.93 pods in a 3’x3' square.

Chip Flory and Brian Grete React to Day 1 of the Tour

Chip Flory, host of AgriTalk, leads the western leg of Pro Farmer Crop Tour each year. He says it was another interesting year for scouting South Dakota’s crops.

“The holes in the field, the drowned out spots, the ponded out areas, that’s putting a big question in my mind about the impact on the South Dakota corn and soybean crops,” Flory says. “We saw that in a lot of places. We saw a corn crop that had two very different planting dates. So we’ve got two very different corn crops growing in South Dakota. In terms of the beans, when you look at last year, it was dry. The beans, though, were still filling out. They had done a lot of the work that they needed to do a year ago. However, this year, that bean crop has got a ton of work to do to realize its potential.”

Flory says ear counts might have been down in South Dakota this year, but the crop made up for it in grain length.

“We had longer ears, longer grain length on this year’s crop, and that’s where we made it up,” Flory says. “We’re looking at a corn crop that’s basically the same as it was a year ago. Soybeans were up only 1.27% on the pods in a 3’x3' square, but I think we’re looking at a really different bean crop this year. Last year, it was what it was and wasn’t going to get any bigger. The bean crop in South Dakota could go either way this year. It’s got a lot of work to do, and if it doesn’t get it done, then it’s probably not going to be last year’s bean crop.”

Editor of Pro Farmer Brian Grete leads the eastern leg of the tour. He says he didn’t see the same consistency across Ohio that scouts found last year.

“I don’t think this year’s Ohio crop is what it was last year, to be honest with you,” Grete says. “Chip talked about the difference in ear counts out there. We actually had higher ear counts, so there’s more ears out there, but the grain length is less, which offsets each other and you end up down four-tenths of a percent from what we found on Crop Tour last year.”

Grete points out scouts did find some disease in the Ohio crop this year.

“We’ll see how much of the yield potential we measured actually gets into the bin,” Grete says.

An In-Depth Look At What Scouts Found In Ohio

As Pro Farmer Crop Tour scouts set out on day 1 on the eastern leg, they saw impressive corn and soybean crops in Ohio, despite the area seeing drought this year. With rains over the weekend, the soybean yields have the potential to be strong.

“We started planting our beans on April 16 and finished on the 25th,” says Michael Vallery who farms in south-central Ohio. “We started planting corn on April 26 and finished on the 30th. We’d never been done planting that early before.”

Vallery says the early start was promising, and he hopes it helps push his soybean yields higher. But the biggest concern for Ohio farmers this year has been drought.

“Our yields this year are going to be less than last year. We’ve basically had the top cut off of our crop by the fact that we’ve received about 5" less moisture than normal,” Vallery says.

According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor, 59% of Ohio is currently seeing some level of dryness. One year ago, that number was only 11%.

“So far, the drought has affected corn more than our soybeans,” he says. “We can still benefit from a late-season rain on some of the later-planted beans.”

Crawford county Ohio #pftour24 pic.twitter.com/Md6ylfJsYi
— Mike (@BerdoMike) August 19, 2024

Vallery says Ohio farmers know they’re probably not going to see the record yields they harvested last year. Still, as Grete got into corn fields on Monday and started peeling back the ears, he uncovered an extremely resilient crop.

“In terms of what’s normal out here in Ohio over the years and what we’ve seen on crop tours in the past, this is an above-average year,” Grete says.

Early updates from the West and East legs of The @profarmer Crop Tour! Stay tuned for more crop insights throughout the week! Follow along with #pftour24 pic.twitter.com/uXfPBsDYWl
— Farm Journal (@FarmJournal) August 19, 2024

Grete has led the eastern leg of the tour for nearly 20 years. He knew after last year’s phenomenal crop in Ohio, it would be hard to beat this season. Yet, even with drought, he thinks this year’s corn yields could be in the top three for the state.

“When comparing it to last year that was the record yield in the state and the gold standard. It was just a phenomenal corn crop last year in Ohio. It’s probably not going to quite live up to those standards this year, but it’s a very good corn crop based on what we’ve seen so far,” Grete explains.

When it comes to Ohio’s soybean crop, Grete was even more impressed.

“The soybeans have been pretty consistent and, actually, they’ve been probably more consistent than corn,” he says. “The fields we stopped in are highly podded. They have soil moisture since they got rain in some of these fields overnight and yesterday. Plenty of topsoil moisture is present, so they should have the ability to finish strong.”

A heavily podded soybean crop with recent rains to help pump moisture into the pods means the pod factory is still working. That could produce some bountiful soybean yields in Ohio this year.

“A heavily podded crop that has moisture in the third week of August is probably going to yield pretty well. I think that’s what we’re looking at so far on our route,” Grete says.

Scouts Found a Consistent Corn Crop in South Dakota

Despite heavy rains and flooding early in the season in southeast South Dakota, crop scouts are finding consistent corn yields, making USDA record yield projections achievable. But soybeans might fall short of the mark, due to the high variability of pod counts.

The historic flooding that occurred right after Father’s Day in the southeast part of the state definitely left its mark.

“You can see the washed-out areas, flooded-out areas, and it seems like every field has a problem of some sort,” says Chip Flory, host of AgriTalk and western leg tour leader.

Centerville, S.D., farmer Craig Andersen received 18" of rain in 48 hours, destroying many of his fields. He wasn’t alone with that experience.

“Using the satellite information, we figured it was over 40,000 acres in this area, right alongside the Vermillion River,” he says.

Acres that weren’t zeroed out will likely see lower yields from increased weed pressure, variable maturity and reduced pod counts.

“A year ago, our pod counts in South Dakota were 1,013,” Flory says. “We started off in the 1,300 range but we’ve also been as low as 400.”

Considering he’s finding such an inconsistent soybean crop, Flory says it might be a stretch for the state to reach USDA’s 47 bu. per acre yield estimate.

“I’m not seeing anything that makes me think it’s a 47-bu. bean crop in South Dakota,” he says.

🌽Four stops in northeast Nebraska on #pftour24 (Knox, Cedar, Pierce Counties). Here's how the #corn yield has averaged (in bu/acre) on this exact route through four stops in the last four years:
2024: 161.6
2023: 158.3 (1 irrigated)
2022: 133.5 (1 irrigated)
2021: 178 pic.twitter.com/w3BcK2PyA8
— Karen Braun (@kannbwx) August 19, 2024

Western leg scout Tim Gregerson found more uniformity in the corn despite a sample that just pollinated last week.

“I’'ve seen a lot of consistent corn,” he says.

He encountered a few surprises with Southern rust and no signs of nitrogen loss from heavy rains that fell early in the season.

“So far the color of the corn is pretty good, though the holes are evident. They’re a little bit bigger than normal in this area of South Dakota than in a normal year, the drowned-out spots. But it’s amazing how tight we’ve seen the yields range, between 170 and 174 bu.,” Gregerson says.

But is it the record 162 bu. per acre yield USDA predicted for the state? That’s yet to be seen.

“The ear count has been consistent enough that it’s definitely possible,” Gregerson says.

Plus, he says the northern half of South Dakota might make up for the deficits in the southeast region.

For more than 30 years, Pro Farmer Crop Tour scouts have been providing the agriculture industry with insights into potential corn and soybean production, gathering scout reports from 2,000-plus fields across Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio and South Dakota.

This year’s event takes place August 19-22. Register now to attend in-person or watch results live each night at 8 p.m. Central Standard Time.

______________________________________________________________________________________________
For exclusive access to professional grade news, analysis and advice, subscribe to Pro Farmer here .

How Pro Farmer's 2024 Yield Estimates Compare to USDA Expectations

Fri, 23 Aug 2024 19:41:02 GMT

For four days this past week, more than 100 crop scouts sampled 2,000 to 3,000 fields in seven Midwest states as part of the one-of-a-kind Pro Farmer Crop Tour . Building on the boots-on-the-ground data and observations, Pro Farmer considers crop maturity and historical differences in Crop Tour data versus USDA’s final yields to release its national production estimates.

“One of the major questions heading into Crop Tour was whether the corn and soybean crops could live up to the lofty expectations,” says Brian Grete, editor for Pro Farmer. “Of the two crops, I was more impressed with soybeans than corn, and the corn crop is stellar.”

Here are the 2024 Pro Farmer National Production Estimates.

Corn Yield Estimates

“The first two days of the tour all we did was move bushels from South Dakota and Nebraska to Ohio and Indiana compared with USDA estimates,” says Chip Flory, host of “AgriTalk.” “We had laid the groundwork for a really good crop in Iowa, but in northwest Iowa, we ran into problems, which we anticipated after too much rain during the planting season. In our final day running the routes, we’ve got a nice crop in Iowa, but Minnesota is another story.”

On the eastern side of the Corn Belt, Grete and fellow scouts found a strong corn crop.

“USDA put a record yield on corn for five of the seven states,” he says. “Ohio isn’t one of those — but if we weren’t talking about last year’s record crop in Ohio, this year would be up there. This year is comparing to last year’s gold standard.”

Indiana: Trouble spots are few and far between. The corn crop posted higher numbers across the board for ear count, grain length and the number of kernels around the cob compared to the 2023 crop.

Illinois: While scouts saw variability in Illinois, the high-yielding fields far exceeded those that fell short, and the state is holding a big crop . Plant health looks good, and even the lower leaves are still green.

Iowa: Yield potential looks promising , especially in the southeast corner, the garden spot, of the state. The corn in east-central Iowa looks good, but the variability is more noticeable in the northeast.

Minnesota: The corn crop in Minnesota doesn’t look too good from the road, and it seems to have ran out of gas . Record rainfall during planting hurt the crop out of the gate, causing drowned out spots and yellow corn, followed by a dry summer.

Nebraska: Despite hail damage and fewer ears, the Nebraska corn crop looks promising with better numbers for grain length and kernels around the cob compared with 2023. Some dryland corn looks as good as irrigated acres thanks to cooperative weather.

Ohio: Despite drought conditions this year (59% of Ohio is currently seeing some level of dryness), the corn crop is proving to be resilient .

South Dakota: Historic flooding that occurred right after Father’s Day in the southeast part of the state left its mark. Scouts found fields with fewer ears , but grain length was up compared with 2023. It’s obvious the corn crop had two very different planting dates, so there’s two very different crops growing in the state.

Soybean Yield Estimates

“Soybeans could be spectacular as long as there isn’t a weather event that derails the crop ahead of harvest,” Grete says. “Typically, there’s some concern with either the corn crop, soybean crop or both coming out of Crop Tour. There aren’t concerns this year.”

Indiana: If soybeans can get a rain or two, yields should finish strong .

Illinois: Uniformity, heavily podded plants and good soil moisture — Illinois has all the ingredients for a big yield , which is a pleasant surprise. “For beans that don’t look that impressive, they certainly have a lot of pods on them,” says crop scout Mark Bernard.

Iowa: Soybean fields are consisten t and show minimal pest and weed pressure across the state, boasting big pod increases versus last year.

Minnesota: Soybeans seem to have handled the excess water better than the corn crop, but yield will be lucky to top 50 bu. per acre .

Nebraska: More pods and pods with three and four beans are good signs.

Ohio: The pod factory is still working. Plants are heavily podded and recent rains pumped moisture into the pods. The drought seems to have had little impact on yield potential.

South Dakota: Soybeans are inconsistent and could go either way this year. The crop is still filling out and has a ton of work to do to realize its potential, Flory says. If it doesn’t get it done, then it’s probably not going to be last year’s bean crop.

Tyne Morgan, host of “ U.S. Farm Report ,” sits down with Chip Flory and Brian Grete to recap the highlights and lowlights from the 32nd Pro Farmer Crop Tour.

Your Next Read — Take Our Poll: How Are Your Yields Shaping Up This Year?

Pro Farmer Crop Tour, Final Day: Iowa Corn Crop Sets 32-Year Record, Minnesota Corn Ran Out Of Gas

Fri, 23 Aug 2024 01:09:55 GMT

The fourth and final day of the 32^nd Pro Farmer Crop Tour wrapped up on Thursday, Aug. 22 with numbers from Minnesota and eastern Iowa samples combined for full Iowa results.

Scouts sampled the Iowa corn yield average to be 192.79 bu. per acre for the state, while Minnesota’s corn yield estimate was 164.90 bu. per acre.

Iowa’s Crop Tour Results

2024 Pro Farmer Iowa Corn Numbers

(Pro Farmer)

In Iowa, Pro Farmer Crop Tour scouts found a strong crop — better than last year and the three-year average. In fact, it sets a new Crop Tour record.

Iowa corn yield estimate: 192.79 bu. per acre, up 5.46% from 2023
Ear count: 102.66, up 0.67% from last year
Grain length: 6.98, up 6.08% from 2023

2024 Pro Farmer Crop Tour Iowa Soybeans

(Pro Farmer)

Iowa’s pod counts were 1,312.31 in a 3’x3’, which is up 10.24% from 2023.

Minnesota’s Crop Tour Results

2024 Pro Farmer Crop Tour Minnesota Corn

(Pro Farmer)

In Minnesota, Pro Farmer Crop Tour Scouts found a corn crop sampling 15 bu. below last year’s.

Minnesota corn yield estimate: 164.90 bu. per acre, down 9.07% from 2023
Ear count: 99.52, up 0.11% from last year
Grain length: 6.04, down 4.43% from 2023

2024 Pro Farmer Crop Tour Minnesota Soybeans

(Pro Farmer)

Minnesota’s pod counts were 1,036.59 in a 3’x3’ square, which is up 5.24% from 2023.

Crop Tour’s Front and Back Half Tell Different Stories

“The first two days of the tour all we did was moved bushels from South Dakota and Nebraska to Ohio and Indiana, compared to the USDA estimates,” says Chip Flory, host of AgriTalk and leader of Pro Farmer Crop Tour’s western leg. “We had laid the groundwork for a really good crop in Iowa, especially in southwest Iowa and south central Iowa. In northwest Iowa, we ran into problems, which we anticipated with having too much rain during the planting season.”

Flory adds the crop in Illinois is frankly, really good.

“In our final day running the routes, we’ve got a nice crop in Iowa, but Minnesota is another story,” Flory says.

Iowa’s Variability Is Overpowered By A Strong Crop Overall

Pro Farmer Crop Tour Scouts sampled a record high corn crop in Iowa and found a heavily podded soybean crop.

Pod counts so good corn samplers are waiting on the soybean samplers to count pods! #pftour24 pic.twitter.com/HQlMmWmTjo
— Bruce Lantzky (@Lantzkyfarms) August 22, 2024

“Last year we had a very good crop, a record crop and most spots. And this year we just–we won’t be there. We’ll be off a solid probably 10 to 15%,” says Zach Egesdal, a farmer from Mason City, Iowa, which experienced a soggy planting season.

From what the scouts collected, Iowa’s garden spot may be the southeast part of the state in 2024.

“My best crop was 2018, and I really think I had the potential to have a better crop than 2018 right now,” says Dustin Guy from Booker, Iowa.

And while Scout Bryan Kaufman, who farms in southeast Iowa says he thinks his area may see corn yields top 250 bu. to 260 bu. He shares his soybean crop is also strong—maybe in his top two or three of all time.

Minnesota’s Corn Crop Leaves A Lot To Be Desired

“The corn crop in Minnesota looks like it ran out of gas,” Flory says.

Record-setting rains throughout the planting season set up the Minnesota crop on the wrong foot. And then a dry summer brought another set of challenges.

10 stops along my route in southwest Minnesota. Not a single #corn field looked good from the road, and that largely held true inside. Corn was yellow and uneven everywhere. Average yield 164 bu/acre. This same route was 177 last year, 210 in 2022 and 201 in 2021. #pftour24 pic.twitter.com/EvemmtXGqm
— Karen Braun (@kannbwx) August 22, 2024

“For our farm, it’s looking like 175-180 bu. corn which we should have 225 bu. And soybeans I don’t know. We’re lucky to get 50 bu. and they should be 60 bu. plus,” says James Willers, a farmer from Beaver Creek, Minn.

Reflections On The Eastern Leg Of The Tour

As eastern leg tour lead, Pro Farmer editor Brian Grete shares the strength of this crop will still depend on getting it across the finish line.

“On the eastern side of the corn belt, it’s a strong crop, but it should be,” Grete says. “USDA put a record yield on corn for five of the seven states. Ohio isn’t one of those—but if we weren’t talking about last year’s record crop in Ohio, this year would be up there. This year is comparing to last year’s gold standard.”
__________________________________________________________________________________________________
View Day 3 Results
View Day 2 Results
View Day 1 Results
__________________________________________________________________________________________________
For more than 30 years, Pro Farmer Crop Tour scouts have been providing the agriculture industry with insights into potential corn and soybean production, gathering scout reports from 2,000-plus fields across Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio and South Dakota.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________
For exclusive access to professional grade news, analysis and advice, subscribe to Pro Farmer here .

Pro Farmer Crop Tour, Day 3: Soybeans Steal The Show in Iowa, Illinois Corn Crop Makes Crop Tour Record

Thu, 22 Aug 2024 01:15:17 GMT

Going into day 3 of the 2024 Pro Farmer Crop Tour, expectations were high. While the crop might not have quite lived up to those expectations, scouts are still seeing big increases over 2023 — especially in soybeans.

The results from day 3 were released Wednesday night :

District 1 Iowa: 176.59 bu./acre
District 4 Iowa: 195.86 bu./acre
District 7 Iowa: 191.59 bu./acre
Illinois: 204.14 bu./acre

Are Recent Rains Enough In Iowa?
Scouts knew if Iowa is going to hit record yield numbers, moisture levels from timely rains would play a big role.

In District 1, estimates show a 3.28% yield decrease from last year’s numbers.

Iowa District 1 Corn Yield Estimate: 176.59 bu./acre
Ear Count: 102.18
Grain Length: 6.52

Crop Tour Day 3 Iowa District 1 Corn

(Lori Hays)

District 4 showed the best numbers of the three areas sampled with a slight yield increase estimate of 2.24% from last year.

Iowa District 4 Corn Yield Estimate: 195.86 bu./acre
Ear Count: 100.09
Grain Length: 7.08

Crop Tour Day 3 Iowa District 4 Corn

(Lori Hays)

This year’s yield estimate in District 7 is a 3.65% increase from 2024 and 4.31% over the three-year average — something Roger Cerven, farmer and scout in Stanton, Iowa, predicted while scouting.

“Southwest Iowa in District 7 is going to be a lot better than what it was a year ago,” he says.

Iowa District 7 Corn Yield Estimate: 191.59 bu./acre
Ear Count: 98.31
Grain Length: 7.09

Crop Tour Day 3 Iowa District 7 Corn

(Lori Hays)

Chip Flory, Pro Farmer Crop Tour director for the western leg, says this Iowa region has been the most impressive of the week.

Soybean fields showed minimal pest and weed pressure along the route, which led to big pod increases versus last year in some parts of the state.

Crop Tour Day 3 Iowa District 1 Soybeans

(Lori Hays)

In District 1, pod counts were estimated at 1,108.76 in a 3’x3' square, which is a 2.5% decrease over 2023.

Crop Tour Day 3 Iowa District 4 Soybeans

(Lori Hays)

District 4 found pod counts at 1,254.09 in a 3’x3' square — an 11.94% increase from last year.

Crop Tour Day 3 Iowa District 7 Soybeans

(Lori Hays)

District 7 kept up the trend, showing a 1,366 pod count in a 3’x3' square — a 16.74% increase from 2023.

Iowa route report on #pftour24 (from my finger to Spencer, 11 stops): #soybeans were great, pod counts safely above the last 3 years on same route. #Corn avg yield was 183.5 bu/acre, roughly 10 better than last 2 years but below 188.2 in 2021. Flood issues evident at very end. pic.twitter.com/nh8tvJ24h5
— Karen Braun (@kannbwx) August 21, 2024

“We pulled our No. 2 sample and found 2,800-some pods,” says Denny Rollenhagen, Wells, Minn., farmer and scout. “From the way they look now, if they finish they’ll be really good beans.”

Illinois’ Corn Crop Makes Crop Tour Record

Crop Tour Day 3 Illinois Corn Chart

(Lori Hays)

With USDA’s yield estimate of 225 bu. per acre in mind, the third day of the 2024 Pro Farmer Crop Tour didn’t quite meet expectations. Overall, the word of the day for the state’s corn is “variable.”

Just finished our sixth stop in northern Illinois today. Averaging 198.0 bushels/acre so far but fields have been variable.
Beans continue to look pretty good across our route#PFTour24 pic.twitter.com/oQ67NV5pCu
— Lane (@iwatchcorn) August 21, 2024

“From a yield perspective, it’s been a bit more variable than I anticipated. If you’re going to get to the 225, it has to be pretty stellar on a consistent basis,” said Brian Grete, eastern leg director. “But, there are some really big yields out there in some of these fields and that can help offset some of the ones that didn’t quite get there.”

However, the state is still holding a big crop. In fact, Grete says it hit a new Crop Tour record. This year’s estimate is 5.38% higher than 2023’s number and 5.46% above the three-year average.

Illinois Corn Yield Estimate: 204.14 bu./acre
Ear Count: 107.75
Grain Length: 7.02

“We had two stops where three of the six ears were 9" in length. Baseball bats as I like to refer to them,” Grete says.

Bloomington, Ill., farmer Dennis Wentworth says he’s still excited about the potential for a record crop.

“We’re not seeing tar spot, and you see really good plant health here,” Wentworth says. “Even the lower leaves are still green — we haven’t run out of nitrogen. We’re excited about this.”

Crop Tour Day 3 Illinois Soybean Chart

(Lori Hays)

Like southern Iowa, Illinois’ soybeans were a pleasant surprise. The state’s pod counts in a 3’x3' square are estimated at 1,419.11 — a whopping 11.69% increase from 2023.

Grete says Illinois has had all the ingredients for a big yield — uniformity, heavily podded, and good soil moisture.

The Illinois beans are starting to play a game of "find Alejandra". The next sample was over her shoulders! 😂 #pftour24 pic.twitter.com/DXPWR2asNc
— Kristi Goedken (@KristiGoedken12) August 21, 2024

“For beans that don’t look that impressive, they certainly have a lot of pods on them,” says scout Mark Bernard.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________
View Day 2 Results
View Day 1 Results
__________________________________________________________________________________________________
For more than 30 years, Pro Farmer Crop Tour scouts have been providing the agriculture industry with insights into potential corn and soybean production, gathering scout reports from 2,000-plus fields across Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio and South Dakota.

This year’s event takes place August 19-22. Register now to attend in-person or watch results live each night at 8 p.m. Central Standard Time.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________

For exclusive access to professional grade news, analysis and advice, subscribe to Pro Farmer here .

Pro Farmer Crop Tour, Day 2: High-Yielding Indiana and Nebraska Crops Aim for State Records, Could Fall Short

Wed, 21 Aug 2024 01:21:04 GMT

As Day 2 of the 32nd Pro Farmer Crop Tour wrapped up on Tuesday, Indiana and Nebraska average corn and soybean yield estimates were coming in at higher levels than scouts saw in either state a year ago.

The results from day 2 were released Tuesday night . Scouts tapped the Indiana average corn yield estimate at 187.54 bu. per acre for the state, while Nebraska’s corn yield estimate was 173.25 bu. per acre.

Indiana’s Results

Pro Farmer Crop Tour estimates for Indiana corn crop.

(Lori Hays)

In Indiana, Pro Farmer Crop Tour scouts found a corn crop that posted higher numbers across the board for ear count, grain length and the number of kernels around the cob, compared to the 2023 crop.

Indiana corn yield estimate: 187.54 bu. per acre, up 3.68% from 2023
Ear count: 102.77, up 1.51% from last year
Grain length: 6.84%, up 1.18% from 2023

Pro Farmer Crop Tour soybean yield estimate results.

(Lori Hays)

Indiana’s pod counts were 1,409.02 in a 3’x3' square, which is up 7.56% from 2023.

Nebraska’s Results

Pro Farmer Crop Tour yield estimates for the 2024 Nebraska corn crop.

(Lori Hays)

In Nebraska, Pro Farmer Crop Tour scouts found corn fields had fewer ears, but the grain length and number of kernels around the cob were higher compared with the 2023 crop.

Nebraska corn yield estimate: 173.25 bu. per acre, up 3.61% from 2023
Ear count: 90.91, down 0.19% from last year
Grain length: 7.03, up 3.38% from 2023

Pro Farmer Crop Tour soybean yield estimates for the 2024 Nebraska soybean crop.

(Lori Hays)

Nebraska’s pod counts were 1,172.48 in a 3’x3' square, which is up 1.07% from 2023.

Nebraska Sees Corn And Soybean Yields Rebound From 2023

Just a year ago at this time, temperatures in parts of Nebraska were a withering 105 degrees F as Pro Farmer Crop Tour scouts on the western leg of the event stopped for the night to regroup, compare data and chart their yield estimates.

This season, Mother Nature did a 180, delivering sunny weather and a mild temperature that barely topped 75 degrees on Tuesday in Nebraska City, Neb., as scouts pulled off for their evening report.

The 2024 weather and overall crop conditions were a much-welcomed change from last year, said Chip Flory, host of AgriTalk and leader of Pro Farmer Crop Tour’s western leg. Flory said his initial dryland corn yield estimates from the first five stops of the day were unexpected, coming in at a low of 107 bu. per acre and a high of 141 bu. per acre. As his team headed east, however, dryland yield estimates improved significantly.

“The corn really came around as we went along. I had dryland corn estimates go (in order) 149.9, 162, 231 and 197,” Flory said.

Heading across northeast Nebraska, Brent Judisch, an Iowa farmer and scout on the western leg of the tour, said he saw good dryland corn yields on Tuesday, ranging from 180 bu. per acre to 200 bu. per acre.

“As we went south, it was a bit drier but we still had some good dryland yields for both corn and soybeans,” Judish said. “For the most part, the crops I looked at there were consistent.”

Stop 7. Butter Co, NE. Ok, I’ve been seeing ear worms on almost every stop of the tour but they seem to be getting worse. The yield check on this field was 230.9 but I also calculated an average of 70 ear worms in a 30’ row. #pftour24 pic.twitter.com/6GVnVZh3E7
— Ted Seifried (@TheTedSpread) August 20, 2024

Nebraska Record Yield Potential Tripped Up By Hail, Pests?

Whether the Nebraska corn and soybean crops will reach USDA’s record yield projections of 194 bushels for corn and 59 bushels for soybeans, based on August 1 conditions, Flory said it’s probably not likely, given what scouts saw in fields on Tuesday.

One of Flory’s main concerns for corn is the amount of Western bean cutworm pressure he observed in fields.

“Of the five fields we looked at this morning first thing, four of them had it,” he said. “If you’re in Nebraska and have not been out to check for Western bean cutworm, you should probably go out and scout for it. You don’t want to be surprised by that pest this fall.”

Judisch’s one concern regarding both corn and soybean yield potential was an area in southern Nebraska with extensive hail damage.

“There’s probably a 9- or 10-mile long area where we saw hail damage and there was nothing to sample,” he said.

Kevin Keller, Pioneer field agronomist, added that south-central Nebraska corn has endured several rounds of hail damage this season. “When you look at some of the key corn-producing counties that were hit hard by hail, like Phelps County, that’s going to have a significant impact on the state’s final yield results.”

Tour scout Leon Dorn, who farms near Adams, Neb., said the soybean crop in his area looks good to excellent.

“We are definitely up from where we were last year with soybeans,” Dorn said. “We’re finding more pods, and the pods look like they have a lot of three and four beans in them. The crop is coming along really well. I think the 59 bushels USDA projected is possible, but we’ll have a better sense of that in the next month.”

Indiana Corn And Soybeans Yields Are Coming On Strong

Brian Grete did crop estimates in crop district 5 in central Indiana and crop district 4 in west-central Indiana on Tuesday. He said he found really strong corn and soybean yield potential along his route.

“Our average for the dryland corn yield along my route was 201.3 bu. per acre,” said Grete, editor of Pro Farmer and leader of the eastern leg of the Tour.

Soybean plants were heavily podded with beans, Grete added.

“They didn’t have as much topsoil moisture as what we saw in Ohio yesterday and in eastern Indiana, but it wasn’t dire by any means,” he said. “If the soybeans get a rain or maybe two – and they don’t have to be all that great of rains – they could finish really well.”

USDA currently has Indiana’s state-wide corn yield projected at 207 bu. per acre, which is up 2 percent over last year. USDA has the state’s soybean yield pegged for 62 bu. per acre, which is a 1.6 percent increase from 2023.

Grete said if the rest of this growing season continues as well as it has up to this point, those new records could potentially be realized though it would likely be a stretch.

Tour Scouts Are Upbeat About Indiana Crop Potential

Richard Guse, a Minnesota farmer who is a scout on the eastern leg of Crop Tour this year, agrees with Grete.

“When we got into Indiana, our soybean pod counts went way up Monday afternoon. Then, this morning we were getting really good pod counts,” Guse said. “If the trend continues, and the other routes see what we’re seeing, Indiana has the potential for a record soybean crop, the way it would appear to me.”

Lane Aker in the field on the Pro Farmer Crop Tour in Indiana, explaining how crop predictions are made. #pftour24 pic.twitter.com/ow18t0N5aX
— Farm Journal (@FarmJournal) August 20, 2024

It was a similar story in the corn fields that were on Guse’s route.

“The corn that we measured this morning has been really good,” Guse said. I would say the consistency on the routes I’ve been on in Indiana is what stood out. On the corn, it’s been pretty consistent.”

Tour scouts measure not just ear counts, but also grain length and they count kernels around the cob. Guse said ear counts and grain length were both up in the fields he was in.

“The three ears in this last field were between 8” and 9” in length, and it had really good ear count,” he said. “The one thing that’s going to hurt it a little bit is they were only 16 kernels in diameter.”

This estimate of 231 in Cass county, IN has James dropping ears 😂 #PFTour24 pic.twitter.com/tOC2uqy8MN
— Kristi Goedken (@KristiGoedken12) August 20, 2024

While this route did produce a couple anomalies with giant ragweed in a corn field, those trouble spots were few and far between.

Scouts saw the potential for a large crop, and if you ask local agronomists, the stage is set for this crop to top last year’s yields.

“I’d say we’re better off this year compared to last year because we had that extended period of dry weather last year where things were almost going to start dying in the field,” said Phil Brunner, a senior field agronomist for BASF.

Bruner lives just outside of Noblesville, Ind. He said the weather has simply been more favorable this year compared to what Mother Nature delivered in 2023.

“We kind of always wait for that one part where something bad happens, and we’re not to the finish line yet, but fingers crossed, things have looked really, really good,” he said.

Other than some high winds impacting small pockets of corn fields, and a few cases of white mold starting to creep in, Brunner said 2024 looks like a banner year for Indiana.

“Everything’s set up pretty dadgum good right now,” Brunner said. “I think it’s a bumper crop.”

See the Day 1 Results from the 2024 Pro Farmer Crop Tour:
Pro Farmer Crop Tour, Day 1: Higher Pod Counts in South Dakota, Lower Yield Estimates In Ohio Versus 2023

For more than 30 years, Pro Farmer Crop Tour scouts have been providing the agriculture industry with insights into potential corn and soybean production, gathering scout reports from 2,000-plus fields across Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio and South Dakota.

This year’s event takes place August 19-22. Register now to attend in-person or watch results live each night at 8 p.m. Central Standard Time.
______________________________________________________________________________________________
For exclusive access to professional grade news, analysis and advice, subscribe to Pro Farmer here .

Will 5 States Along the Pro Farmer Crop Tour Shatter Their Record Yields?

Fri, 16 Aug 2024 18:45:12 GMT

Every year, row crop farmers eagerly await news from the Pro Farmer Crop Tour, during which scouts travel thousands of miles and go into more than 2,000 fields in seven Midwestern states to gather first-hand data that is used it to predict yields. This year, however, there’s even more excitement surrounding the tour.

The latest WASDE report from the USDA forecasts record-breaking yields in five of those states —Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, Nebraska and South Dakota. Illinois could see an amazing average corn yield of 225 bu. per acre.

“On Crop Tour, we want to see what’s really out there,” says Pro Farmer editor Brian Grete on the latest edition of Unscripted , a new Farm Journal podcast. “We’re the first real hands-on look across the bulk of the Midwest.” During the tour, scouts pull approximately 1,700 samples and report their observations from four days of field study.

Unscripted hosts Clinton Griffiths and Tyne Morgan won’t be getting much sleep during the tour, as they’ll be broadcasting each night from four cities along the tour’s Eastern route. With sagging commodity prices, the mood among corn and soybean growers remains low, but generally good weather in much of the Midwest this season has helped produce healthy crops.

Grete notes that the lack of drought has been a key factor, as has a good balance of rain and sun. “Crops have had very little stress this year,” he says. “Now, we know about the flooding in the northwestern Corn Belt and that’s going to take away some harvested acres, but yield-wise what’s out there is very strong.”

Because Pro Farmer Crop Tour scouts are actually in the fields, the final forecasts tend to be more accurate. They’re not just relying on grower surveys and satellite images. Grete says that he does hear occasionally from ag industry people claiming that the tour’s scouts tend to cherry-pick the best-looking fields. “Nothing could be further from the truth,” he says, adding that fields are picked at random. “I don’t care what a field looks like.”

Having led the eastern leg of the tour for 17 years, Grete is keeping his emotions in check about what this tour will reveal. “We don’t want to have any preconceived notions going into crop tour,” he explains. “But with that said, it’s impossible to ignore all the data that’s out there. Two-hundred and twenty-five for a corn yield would not just beat the current record of 214, it would absolutely annihilate it.”

Listen to the full episode of Unscripted.

What To Expect From This Year’s Crop Tour

Wed, 14 Aug 2024 13:48:35 GMT

Crop Tour is a fact-finding mission with a goal of getting a strong, objective view of corn yield potential from one big field across the seven states we sample during the third full week of August. While that’s the objective every year, it’s nearly impossible to block out all the data we’ve gathered about the crop ahead of Crop Tour. In fact, some of that data helps shape Pro Farmer’s opinion of crops outside of the areas we pull samples from on Crop Tour.

Watch live: Pro Farmer Crop Tour nightly meetings at 8 p.m. Central / 9 p.m. Eastern

Heading into this year’s tour, we knew there were areas that received excessive moisture through June in northwestern areas of the Corn Belt that resulted in some lost acres due to flooding and washouts. We also knew southern and eastern areas of the Corn Belt that trended drier through June received timely rains ahead of pollination. From our 31 previous years of experience and data collecting, we know the recipe for a strong yield is to rush the crop to pollination and then slow it down through grain fill.

As of July 7, corn development was ahead of average, with 24% of the crop silking (five-year average of 14%) and 3% in dough stage (average of 2%). Early conditions for pollination were favorable. The second portion of the yield formula is grain fill, which will be determined from mid-July into harvest.

As of July 7, USDA rated the U.S. corn crop as 68% good to excellent and 9% poor to very poor. The good/excellent rating was one point above the 10-year average. Of the seven states we sample from on Crop Tour, only Minnesota had a lower-than-average rating for corn as pollination began (59% good/excellent versus a 10-year average of 70.2%). The others: Illinois 67% versus 62.4%; Indiana 67% versus 59.2%; Iowa 76% versus 74.6%; Nebraska 80% versus 73%; Ohio 74% versus 61%; and South Dakota 72% versus 63.7%.

There’s no direct correlation between crop condition ratings and final yield. Last year was a good example, as corn crop conditions ran below average throughout the growing season, but the final yield was a record 177.3 bu. per acre. However, there tends to be a stronger yield correlation as the growing season progresses. While conditions were below average last year, they didn’t post the typical decline after pollination, which was a precursor to the strong result.

Here’s How Pro Farmer's 2023 Yield Estimates Stack Up to USDA Expectations

Fri, 25 Aug 2023 22:17:31 GMT

It’s Friday in Pro Farmer Crop Tour week, which means the highly anticipated production estimates for the 2023 U.S. corn and soybean crops are now available.

These estimates are based on Crop Tour data and observations collected this past week by more than 100 crop scouts who sampled 3,000+ fields spanning Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa and Minnesota.

Corn yield estimates

“We built record corn yields ahead of these extreme heat-indexed days. That’s the key point as we looked across the Corn Belt as a whole this week—we got ahead on yield early-on in order to hit average after the losses to heat,” Brian Grete of Pro Farmer says.

Indiana: Corn plants in Indiana look good , but kernel counts around will take a bite out of yield. With incidences of tar spot popping up all over the state, the yield could quickly change. Without tar spot, Indiana could hit yield average.

Illinois: Wildfire smoke and overnight temperatures won’t stop Illinois corn from hitting average yield. Tar spot, however, could blow up in pockets in coming weeks, which would pack a punch in the kernels’ starch and test weights.

Iowa: Five days with 103° heat index equated to five weeks of stress on corn crops in Iowa. The crops clearly ran out of energy and will see a just-below-average yield.

Minnesota: Burn is eating up the state’s corn crop up to one leaf below the ear . Kernel depth will push the crop below average yields.

Nebraska: The Nebraska corn fields had plenty of ear s, but they are already hanging. Irrigated acres will hit average, but non-irrigated will take a hit.

Ohio: A surge of moisture saved the crop this week. Despite being behind on growing degree days, the crop is more consistent than 2022 and looks to yield above average.

South Dakota: Rain in many regions of South Dakota resulted in a 180° from 2022’s crop. There’s no tip back in the Southeast corn for the state, yet. Final weeks of the season could shrink grain depth, but with little effect.

Soybean yield estimates

“We saw extremely stressful conditions this week. Thanks to the management put on the crop, hybrid and varieties available, the ability of both the corn and soybean crops to build a yield in these conditions has been unbelievable,” Chip Flory, AgriTalk host says. “The question now is whether or not they can hold on to it.”

Indiana: Moisture deficiencies are playing out heavily in Indiana ’s soybeans. However, the plant is proving resilient with high pod and seed counts. The state will yield higher than last year.

Illinois: Months-long drought followed by a derecho caused whiplash in Illinois soybeans. But the storm caused more good than bad, resulting in short nodes and short beans, with high pod counts. The state will see slightly above-average harvest numbers.

Iowa: Dry conditions produced yellow-green marbled fields . Despite dry conditions, pod counts in Iowa will trump Illinois. But seed size and count will cause a yield penalty.

Minnesota: Heat stress and drought are throwing punches at soybean yield in Minnesota. The state is patchy, with two-bean pods spotted in the state’s Southwestern corridor while other areas will have an average-yielding crop.

Nebraska: The bean crop appeared to be dying out instead of drying out. With no chance of rain in the forecast, the crops won’t have a chance to fill.

Ohio: Rains this week in Ohio greened-up crops at a pivotal growth stage. The state’s soybean crop won’t be better than 2021, but it will be better than 2022.

South Dakota: Pod counts are above normal for what scouts would usually see in the state, thanks to late-season moisture. Yield will likely come out average, or slightly above.

Pro Farmer Crop Tour, Day 3: Heat and Stress Take a Toll on Corn in Iowa and Illinois

Fri, 25 Aug 2023 19:41:10 GMT

Temperatures topped 100 °F on both legs of the 2023 Pro Farmer Crop Tour on Wednesday. The heat looks to be cooling down as in some regions, with scouts reporting less crop stress as they move across each leg of tour.

Western leg: Nebraska City, Neb., to Spencer, Iowa

As they made their way to Spencer, Iowa, scouts continued to see improvements from 2022’s drought-stricken fields. However, not all fields received the precipitation they needed.

Roger Cerven, a farmer from Stanton, Iowa, says the region’s spotty rains made for drastic differences in corn yields in his fields this year.

“We will have farms that will do 140 and farms that will pull 200. If we end up in that 170-bu. range it’s a win,” Cerven says.

Lack of moisture and high-heat days have Iowa locals concerned about cannibalized stalks. Ryan Beccard, a Pioneer seed rep, says it’s not so much about the heat levels as it is the timeframe.

#Soybeans averaging 1265 pods in a 3x3' plot versus 1257 last year and 1425 in 2021. That sixth stop (1800) brought the average up. Lots of flat pods still and some fields are already in the very early stages of maturity. Unsure if they can maximize current potential. #pftour23 pic.twitter.com/xt9twYJtBN
— Karen Braun (@kannbwx) August 23, 2023

“The heat of 100° is nothing new for August in Iowa. How long the temps hold on — five, six or seven days in a row — will hold the crop off from finishing out,” Beccard says.

While Cerven estimates a 30-bu. blow to corn due to late-season heat, soybeans likely won’t take the same hit, according to Nate Quam, BASF’s western Iowa technical service rep.

“It is hot right now, but we started the month cooler and wet, so soybeans were getting the August rains that make good yield. We’ve seen pretty consistent numbers on soybeans this year,” Quam says.

Disease concerns, such as sudden death syndrome, were brought to question on the western leg on Wednesday. But Quam doesn’t foresee it becoming a catastrophic issue.

“Right now, I’m only seeing it in pockets of fields. I think on soybeans we’ll come out pretty good,” Quam says.

Eastern leg: Bloomington, Ill., to Iowa City, Iowa

Drought carved out a notch in crops on the eastern leg of the tour from Ohio to Illinois, but moisture drew a clear line in the sand in western Illinois, based on scout Meghan Yandell’s findings.

“Around the Bloomington, Ill., area, they were very dry earlier in the year, which created shorter nodes, thereby, short soybeans,” Yandell says. “A field in Farmington, however, had plants with pod counts around 212.”

Locals say fields were dry from May 7 until June 29. Then a derecho flipped the switch on soil moisture, according to Cody Pettit, a local Pioneer agronomist.

1st stop Lee County IL. 164 corn but not sure 1/3 of ears look this bad. Would be 200 if 3rd ear didn’t count. Still seeing plenty of 2 or less beans per pod. #pftour23 pic.twitter.com/iHTFXKm23y
— Bruce Lantzky (@Lantzkyfarms) August 23, 2023

“We got from 2” to 6” of rain in Will County, Ill. It was a big stretch of time between rains, and I feel soybeans took it harder than corn. Corn got stressed, but not as bad as we thought it would,” Pettit says.

Overnight temperatures and wildfire smoke from Canada played roles in both corn and soybeans. But tar spot is adding another stressful element to corn.

“At this stage in the game, I’m not overly concerned. If tar spot does blow up, we could get some potential stock issues,” Pettit says.

But this week’s heavy morning dew, coupled with 2021’s similarly dry June, has some agronomists, such as BASF’s Vince Davis, on their toes.

“In my opinion, we’re eight to 10 days early from really determining whether tar spot is going to be problematic this year or not. There’s still 35% to 40% yield left to be packed in those kernels from a starch and dry weight standpoint,” Davis says.

While the derecho might have helped the corn crop more than hindered it, scouts don’t expect a record-breaking yield for Illinois.

Tune in tonight at 8pm to hear Day 4 results broadcast live here .

For exclusive access to professional grade news, analysis and advice, subscribe to Pro Farmer here .

Pro Farmer Crop Tour, Day 4: “Extreme” Variability Spans Iowa and Minnesota

Fri, 25 Aug 2023 02:18:52 GMT

The Pro Farmer Crop Tour commenced on Thursday, with scouts rallying in Rochester, Minn., to share images of fields they ranked as some of the worst they’d seen all week.

Here’s what scouts found on their final stretch of the tour.

Eastern leg: Iowa City, Iowa to Rochester Minn.

Variability was the theme on the eastern leg on Thursday, as Peter Meyer of S&P Global says Iowa’s corn crop is the patchiest he’s seen in his 17 years on Crop Tour.

“This crop didn’t get enough moisture and ran out of energy. It’s certainly not a disaster, but when you look at the ears and consider the potential, it could have been a monster crop,” Meyers says.

The same variability concerns only grew in soybeans as scouts made their way north. Some said they struggled to determine whether the crop was dying or drying out.

Stop 6 Howard County. Lack of moisture and hail. 119 corn and 734 pods. #pftour23 pic.twitter.com/Xgq2uZR2Xt
— Bruce Lantzky (@Lantzkyfarms) August 24, 2023

“You’ll come up on a particular field with 50% a dried yellow color. I really don’t know if it’s sudden death syndrome, or if it’s their time to go,” Meyer says. “We’re sitting here with two to three days of 103° heat index. Soybeans are an August crop, so this crop will not finish very well.”

Despite the dry conditions, pod counts in Iowa look to trump those in Illinois. But the burden will be revealed within the pods, according to Jim Lafrenz, an Iowa field agronomist for Pioneer.

“Seed size will ultimately be the penalty in the next three or four weeks,” Lafrenz says.

Western leg: Spencer, Iowa to Rochester Minn.

On the western leg, Brad Nelson, a Minnesota farmer, found the state’s south-central soybeans could fare worse than in Iowa.

“The first two or three counties I stopped in, their fields’ two-bean pods were very noticeable. The first plant I counted for the day had 48 pods, and at least half of those were two-bean pods. This is very concerning,” Nelson says.

Heat stress, coupled with drought, cuts each plant’s yield by 20% to 25%. Ron Obermoller, a Brewster, Minn., farmer, says he’s still betting on average-yielding beans.

“I think last year the state came in at 52 bu. Our state checkoff is still estimating 50 bu. beans,” Obermoller says.

Corn showed the same stress as soybeans. Scout Tim Gregerson says the fields he walked showed signs of burn.

“The corn is fired up one leaf below the ear. You can clearly see there’s been drought stress here in Minnesota,” Gregerson says. “We also don’t have the kernel depth to have a monster yield, nor finish above average.”

Guess I'm just not seeing the good #corn on #pftour23. Six stops in southwest Minnesota (Nobles, Murray, Cottonwood Counties). #Corn yield averaged 176 bu/acre versus 223 in this same stretch last year and 211 in 2021. Grain length and kernel rows are lighter than usual. pic.twitter.com/UKiDsv33ON
— Karen Braun (@kannbwx) August 24, 2023

Dale Lucht, a Jackson, Minn., farmer, finds the 2023 corn crop is similar to 2021. He says that year, his yields came in near insurance levels. With this week’s heat in tow, he anticipates the same yield outcome this fall.

For exclusive access to professional grade news, analysis and advice, subscribe to Pro Farmer here .

30 Days Left for Iowa Corn Crop to Complete Fill, Pack On Yield

Thu, 24 Aug 2023 22:54:29 GMT

Before Thursday is over, Pro Farmer Crop Tour scouts will have evaluated corn and soybean crops in every single one of the 99 counties in Iowa this week.

What scouts are finding are what Pioneer agronomist Jim Lafrenz describes as highly variable crops, showing wide swings in performance depending on their location within the state.

“I think this might be the most complicated time of the season, as we’re looking at yield estimates trying to understand the productivity in the crops,” he tells Farm Journal’s Tyne Morgan. “It’s dynamic; we still have 30 days of fill left in a lot of corn hybrids, and it’s a similar situation in soybeans.”

Uneven Corn Emergence Costs 5% To 9% In Yield

The season started out tough for Iowa’s farmers, many of whom planted over a 40-day period of fitful starts and stops before getting all their fields seeded.

The tough start resulted in corn that didn’t achieve the much-desired picket fence pattern corn growers want to achieve to optimize yield potential.

An uneven corn crop means growers can count on a 5% to 9% yield loss just because of the uneven emergence. And the season has continued with weather ups and downs ever since.

I’ve got a solid corn crop in some areas, and I’ve got some areas that are very droughty with 150 bu. and less yield potential on some very good soils that have had very little rain,” Lafrenz says.

Roger Cerven, a farmer from Stanton, Iowa, says the region’s spotty rains have made for drastic differences in his cornfields this season.

“We will have farms that will do 140 bu. and farms that will pull 200. If we end up in that 170-bu. range, it’s a win,” Cerven says.

Soybeans Tell A Similar Story

Soybeans across most of Iowa are at R5 going into R6 and need more moisture to pack bigger seeds in the pods. “We won’t lose pods so much now, but we’ll lose bean size. That’s really what the penalty will be,” Lafrenz says.

He estimates that some parts of Iowa have received only 50% to 60% of their normal precipitation.

“In southeast Iowa farmers have seen only 9” to 10” of rain until now, and they’re short that much as well,” Lafrenz says.

“Respiration is taking more energy from the plants. We’re in day four of these high temperatures, and they’re not ideal for fill – corn and soybeans don’t like 95-degree temperatures,” he adds.

But the bigger concern is what he doesn’t see coming on the horizon: rain.

As soybeans go through the seed-fill process, their size is determined and water demand is at its highest point, according to Matt Duesterhaus, Crop-Tech Consulting research agronomist for west-central Illinois and northeast Missouri. He says a soybean crop needs 6" to 7" of water at the beginning of R5 for good seed fill.

“This is why soil moisture in August and those August rains are so crucial,” Duesterhaus says. “Likewise, if your crop is under irrigation, be prepared to meet its water demands.”

Pro Farmer Crop Tour, Day 3: Heat and Stress Take a Toll on Corn in Iowa and Illinois

Want to Take More Beans to the Bin at Harvest? Pay Attention to Soybean Growth Stages

Midwest Crops Swelter In High Temperatures, Little Relief Ahead

Split, Pinch And Push Stalks If Tar Spot Strikes Now

Pro Farmer Crop Tour, Day 1: Mostly Green in Ohio and South Dakota

Thu, 24 Aug 2023 22:26:22 GMT

The 31st Pro Farmer Crop Tour kicked off on Monday, as nearly 100 crop scouts pointed their headlights toward Grand Island, Neb. and Indianapolis. Ind., this morning.

Here’s what scouts found on Day 1.

Western Leg: South Dakota to Nebraska

This time last year, more than 36% of South Dakota was covered in drought. This year, that number dropped to 14%, with very little of the state in the severe and extreme drought categories. The moisture changes in the West became apparent in Monday’s estimates.

Sherman Newlin, Pro Farmer Crop Tour scout, says many regions of South Dakota have seen a 180° turnaround from 2022.

“Last year, this region had very low yields because of drought. This year they’ve been catching a lot of rain,” Newlin says. “There’s no tip back here, yet. The dryness coming up could shrink the grain depth and have a small affect.”

July and August rains in South Dakota greened-up the state’s soybeans. Karen Braun, Pro Farmer Crop Scout, foresees South Dakota’s average hitting higher than USDA’s August prediction of 42 bu. per acre.

“Our pod counts are really strong and up from what we would normally see in this state,” Braun says. “If I continue to see these higher pod counts, I think we could come out with a bit higher estimate than USDA’s.”

After four stops in northeast Nebraska (Knox, Cedar County area), #soybeans are averaging 1295 per 3x3' plot versus 1200 on this exact route last year. One irrigated each year, so a very comparable view. #pftour23 pic.twitter.com/m0OUx7T4QO
— Karen Braun (@kannbwx) August 21, 2023

Watch AgDay’s recap of Day 1 on the western leg:

Eastern Leg: Ohio to Indiana

USDA estimates Ohio’s corn yield will hit 191 bu. per acre, but Pro Farmer scouts revealed a lower number for Ohio on Monday. The yields are still an improvement from last year.

Growing degree day units might be behind, according to locals. However, scouts saw a more consistent crop this year compared with 2022, according to Brian Grete.

“Ohio is, generally, a hit-or-miss state. There’s a good-quality corn crop here this year, and it’s looking like a hit,” Grete says.

1st stop in Van Wert county OH district 1. We found the corns. Yield check - 233. But plz send rains #PFtour23 pic.twitter.com/SHLAi84aNQ
— Ted Seifried (@TheTedSpread) August 21, 2023

The same story is told in the state’s soybeans, as Josh Yoder’s operation planted the earliest ever recorded.

“We had a nice window to get soybeans planted early,” Yoder says. “Overall, I don’t think we’re going to have a better crop than we saw in 2021, but it will be better than what we saw last year.”

While the early part of Ohio’s growing season saw dry weather, recent rainfalls in the region allowed the crops to bounce back. But fears of nutrient deficiency remain a concern.

“We’ve seen some potassium deficiency flash on our soybeans early in the season. As the next few weeks play out, we’ll find out what kind of impact that lack of moisture really had,” Yoder says.

Growers in Ohio look to retain these projected yields in the last stretch of the growing season through any means necessary, including last-minute fungicide applications put on mere weeks ago.

Watch AgDay’s recap of Day 1 on the eastern leg:

For exclusive access to professional grade news, analysis and advice, subscribe to Pro Farmer here .

Pro Farmer Crop Tour, Day 2: Drought in Nebraska, Tar Spot in Indiana

Thu, 24 Aug 2023 22:22:13 GMT

Extreme heat rolled down Midwestern highways on Tuesday, along Pro Farmer’s Crop Tour scouts as they made their Day 2 journey.

This heat has been lingering in Nebraska for quite some time, based on the scouts’ findings. Here’s what they saw on Tuesday.

Western leg: Grand Island, Neb. to Nebraska City, Neb.

As scouts made their way to the eastern portion of Nebraska, the state’s extreme-to-exceptional drought conditions (15%) were obvious in corn. The region’s crops are likely to yield higher than 2022, thanks — in most part — to record amounts of irrigation, according to Maverick Widdowson, a Shelkon Neb. farmer.

“It’s been nonstop since we planted. A lot of pre-watering early on, and we’ve had to keep pumping as much as we can, even into September,” Widdowson says.

Calvin Rupe, Pioneer field agronomist, says the lack of moisture will be measured in corn’s test weight in non-irrigated corn. He anticipates an average-yielding year for irrigated corn stands, however.

Beans at my last stop in Otoe Co NE (not pictured) were beautiful - 1250 pod count. Beans in picture from Gage Co had a 1411 pod count and won’t yield as well as last stop. Beans in Gage had some twisted pods and very little fill. #PFTour23 pic.twitter.com/4EqOINjRK4
— Chip Flory (@ChipFlory) August 22, 2023

Prior to the heat wave that cast a wide net over the Midwest two weeks ago, some eastern Nebraskans thought the non-irrigated soybean crop would come in above APH. Now, some, including Pro Farmer Crop Tour scout Brent Judisch, aren’t convinced.

“In the fields I’m seeing, they’re going to lose that top cluster. They’ll lose 10% to 12% minimum because they won’t have a chance to fill due to lack of rain in the forecast,” Judisch says.

Eastern leg: Noblesville, Ind. to Bloomington, Ill.

Scouts in the east saw more of a mixed bag for corn on Tuesday compared with the first day of Crop Tour. Scout Mark Bernard says he was more impressed by Monday’s fields in Ohio.

“The first sample out of the chute today looked really good, but it was only 14 kernels around. Those numbers will take a bite out of your yield,” Bernard says.

Bernard says his corn counts on Tuesday were in the 190-bu. range, which he doesn’t think is disappointing, but it’s below what he had expected.

Bushels counts could quickly change in coming weeks with the threat of tar spot on the horizon, according to Brian Shrader, Pioneer agronomist who covers northeast Indiana.

“We’ve seen tar spot move further south and east earlier this year than we ever have in my geography,” Shrader says. “I’m seeing it at significantly higher levels than what I’ve seen in past years.”

Stop 5 Jasper County, Indiana. Corn will probably be used for silage (Fair Oaks) Drought stressed. 129 bu appraised.

Same stop. Bean pod count is 528. Lots of 2 bean pods (see photo). pic.twitter.com/sX5IziAkli
— Bruce Lantzky (@Lantzkyfarms) August 22, 2023

With a mid-to-late May planting date, followed by a dry spell in June, moisture deficiencies are playing out heavily in Indiana’s soybeans.

“We’re seeing very deeply rooted plants in general on Crop Tour, including in Ohio. That means the plants are breaking off at the stem instead of coming out by the roots — something unusual,” Bernard says.

Due to the plant’s root change, Bernard says the soybean crop will be more resilient, especially in this week’s heat.

For exclusive access to professional grade news, analysis and advice, subscribe to Pro Farmer here .

Double-Edged Sword: Did Rains from Derecho Save Illinois Corn and Soybeans?

Wed, 23 Aug 2023 19:41:47 GMT

June 29 was a turning point for Illinois corn and soybean crops which had been hanging on in the powder-dry soils, according to Pioneer agronomist Cody Pettit.

He says little to no rain had fallen in central Illinois since May 7. “It had been so dry the crops hadn’t grown much,” he recalls.

Then, what Pettit describes as a mini derecho swept across central and southeast Illinois in the late morning of June 29, turning into a double-edged sword for area farmers. Below is a picture of what farmers faced just before noon:

The National Weather Service reports wind gusts of 70 to 110 mph tore through fields. With them came pounding hail and a handful of tornadoes, flattening soybean and corn crops – the latter was on the cusp of pollination.

But with the storm came life-giving rains, enabling the corn crop to pollinate successfully.

“I know there might have been some pollination issues as you get into Indiana, but for us in Illinois (pollination) was good,” Pettit says.

Pro Farmer Editor, Brian Grete, is moving through northern Illinois today and he says the corn crop improved as he moved out of Indiana.

“The corn yields have come up. The biggest change has been in crop maturity,” says Grete, who’s leading the eastern leg of the tour. “Every sample has been in dent stage. Crop maturity is much more advanced and building weight.”

The highest sample scouts have estimated is 238 bu. per acre for corn in Illinois. “But everything has been above 200 bushels,” Grete says.

Grete weighs in during AgriTalk on what he’s seeing in Indiana and Illinois fields and how the crops compare to last year. Catch his comments here:

Hiccups On The Western Leg Of Crop Tour

Chip Flory and his team of 50-plus scouts finished estimating crops in Nebraska on Tuesday and are in Iowa today, Wednesday.

Flory says the Nebraska irrigated corn might warrant the 191-bu. average yield USDA predicted on August 1. However, he says the dryland crop will pull that average down.

“I think the stress that showed up in late June before it started getting rain that shortened up the ears, even in the irrigated fields,” says Flory, team lead for the western leg of the tour and host of AgriTalk. “You want 40-kernel rows on corn, and there are a lot of 32s,” he adds.

Soybeans look even worse than the corn in Nebraska, in Flory’s opinion. “I felt like I was watching a dryland bean crop died,” he says. “You can tell a bean crop that’s dying from heat stress, and I felt that’s what I was seeing.”

Flory’s team is now on its way to Spencer, Iowa. “I’m not happy with what I’m seeing so far, especially in Woodbury County. There’s a lot more tip back than I’d expected. Corn’s already giving it up.”

Flory says the Iowa soybean crop is stagnant. “I’m looking at a bean crop that’s not building yield,” he says.

There are 99 Iowa counties and before the event concludes, Pro Farmer scouts will make yield estimates in every county in the state.

You can hear Flory’s full report from the western leg of the tour here:

'No Monster Yields' but Nebraska Irrigated Corn has Above-Average Potential

Tue, 22 Aug 2023 17:29:57 GMT

It was a crop-withering 105 degrees F with a hot wind blowing when Pro Farmer Crop Tour scouts on the western leg of the four-day event pulled into Grand Island, Neb., last night to regroup, compare data and chart yield results for the day.

“If we get that heat for the next three days, what’s that going to do to this crop we saw in South Dakota and northeast Nebraska on day one of the tour? I wish I had a crystal ball into that,” Chip Flory told his crew. “The best thing I can say is that it’s not going to be good.”

On Monday, scouts estimated a final 157.42 bu. per acre average corn yield for South Dakota versus a 118.45 bu. per acre estimate in 2022 – a 32.9% increase.

Final corn and soybean results for South Dakota and Ohio from Day one of the tour are available here: Pro Farmer Crop Tour, Day 1: Mostly Green in Ohio and South Dakota

Tuesday Morning Corn Yield Counts Start Strong

On Tuesday morning, scouts on the western leg of the tour started the day in Nebraska – headed south of the Platte River and east of Grand Island – where they are evaluating fields of irrigated corn.

Maverick Widdowson, a fifth-generation farmer from central Nebraska, near Shelton (above), told Farm Journal’s Michelle Rook that moisture will make or break his family’s corn crop this year. The crop is 90% irrigated and 10% dryland.

“I think the irrigated corn will be all right, but some pivots are definitely short,” Widdowson says. “The dryland crop looks pretty tough. This last week’s kind of been the final nail in the coffin, as we don’t have any moisture reserves for it. We’ll see what we get but it won’t be very good, though.”

Widdowson says he is concerned in general because “central Nebraska is in a dry hole,” and irrigation doesn’t eliminate the problem.

“We’re trying to put anywhere from 1.5" to 2" of water on our irrigated corn. Some of our wells can do that, and some can’t and then the gravity wells are running nonstop.”

Brent Judisch, an Iowa farmer and scout from near Cedar Rapids, said the irrigated corn yields his group of scouts evaluated in their first three stops Tuesday morning were solid. Scouts calculated 208 bu. per acre in a field of white corn, then made 234 and 235 bu. per acre estimates for two fields of conventional yellow corn.

“Sometimes we get some monster numbers, like 280 bushels, but I haven’t heard that so far. Someone did call in a 250-bu. estimate this morning. But for the most part, we’re seeing solid crops with a lot of potential,” Judisch says. “I think the humidity and dew are what’s helping even these crops under irrigation right now.”

Farmers Lack Total Control Over Water Availability

Farmers don’t have total control over when they can irrigate crops and how much water they can deliver, Flory says. There are watering restrictions and power use restrictions.

“Boy, when it’s 100-and-some degrees and the sun is shining and the wind is blowing, you’d sure like to be able to run your irrigators throughout the day,” he says. “But depending on the various power districts in the state, the electricity is shut off to the pivot irrigation systems in some cases as early as 10 o’clock in the morning, or as late as 2 o’clock in the afternoon.”

Looking ahead, Flory says he’s heard some reports that the dryland corn in south-central and southeastern Nebraska are in some really rough conditions and likely to pull the state’s averages down. Likewise, he says north of the area scouts tour, the corn yields typically pull down the state average.

“I don’t think they’re going to pull it down much this year. There might even be some better yields up north of the tour area that we’ll have to take into consideration later,” he says.

Indiana Corn Looks OK, Not A Bin Buster

As the eastern leg of the tour got underway this morning, Pro Farmer Crop Scout Mark Bernard says he was a bit disappointed by his first four corn crop estimates.

“They looked good, but some them were only 14 kernels around, and that takes a bite out of your yield potential,” he says. “There’s been some moisture stress through here too, we’ve got some cracks on the ground, even though it’s moist on the soil surface right now.”

Yield-wise, Bernard says he would place the Indiana crops he’s evaluated at an average of 190 bushels.

“That’s not bad, but it isn’t 200-plus like I was expecting to see on corn,” he says. But with morning stops only under his belt, he says there is a lot to see in Indiana yet today.

How Do Your Crops Look?

How are your crops looking as the growing season moves into late August?

Let us hear from you by sharing your crop comments here: https://www.agweb.com/crop-comments

Hear more about what scouts are seeing this week from our Pro Farmer Crop Tour team of agronomists and reporters on the Eastern and Western legs of the tour. Check out the two videos here:

Corn and Soybeans Look 'Darn Good' In Ohio, Similar to 2021

Mon, 21 Aug 2023 20:49:20 GMT

Ohio might not be Iowa, Illinois or Indiana, but the state’s farmers have corn and soybean crops that are holding their own compared to what farmers in the I-states have in their fields this season.

“Everything looks pretty darn good for the state of Ohio from what I’ve seen here initially this morning,” says Brian Grete, Pro Farmer editor, who leads the Eastern leg of the four-day tour. “Their soils aren’t as good here as they are in the central Corn Belt, and they have to have better weather here for high yields, but we haven’t seen any pests or disease. This year is looking like a hit for Ohio farmers.”

In fact, the Eastern Corn Belt looks like the garden region -- and the big story for row crops this season -- according to Monday’s U.S. Farm Report. You can watch it here .

Grete and a crew of 50-plus scouts – some of whom have participated in the tour for more than 20 years – started out in Columbus this morning and had made two stops to evaluate crops before 8 a.m. Eastern. By early afternoon, Grete had this to say:

In all, more than 100 crop scouts are fanning out across fields to project corn yields and estimate soybean pods in seven states, including Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio and South Dakota. In Iowa, scouts will sample and measure corn and soybean crops in all 99 counties.

Plenty Of Variability Present This Year

“The first two stops this morning in Ohio showed corn-yield extremes and also the randomness of the stops the tour makes,” Grete says. “We saw bad corn and good soybeans on the first stop, and good corn and not as good a soybean crop on the second stop.”

In the first stop, the crop was really short, pollination was poor and the field was in rough shape. “We projected 92 bushels per acre in that first field of corn,” Grete says.

At stop No. 2 the cornfield held a solid, well-pollinated crop with large ears, dark green leaves and excellent plant health. “We projected 208 bushels per acre there,” Grete says.

Last year, scouts sampled nearly 3,400 corn and soybean fields on the tour. Here are the final results tallied for 2022, which can be referenced and compared to this season’s results:

Hoping For A Repeat Of 2021

Josh Yoder, who farms near Plain City, about 20 miles northeast of Columbus, Ohio, says he’s encouraged by the crops he’s growing this season and by what he’s seeing on the tour today.

“I think it’s going to be a better corn crop than what we had last year. I don’t know if it’s going to be as good of a crop as what we had in 2021, but we’re set up to have an above-average crop,” Yoder says.

Here’s a look at the three-year average for Ohio corn crops:

On the soybean side, scouts in Ohio projected 1,500 pods in the first field today and 799 pods in the second field. Scouts don’t calculate soybean yields. Instead, they calculate soybean pods in a 3’ x 3’ plot in fields to get a rough sense of yield potential.

Yoder says his soybean crop looks good, though he has some concerns about disease pressure.

“Sudden Death has really reared its ugly head if you will the last couple of years,” he says. “Adding in an extra seed treatment specifically for that is becoming more commonplace here in Ohio. The biggest question mark I have for this season is what did the early season dry conditions do to do to the crop both corn and beans.”

Headed West To Indianapolis Tonight

Today, Grete’s scouts are headed west through central Ohio on their way to Indianapolis, Ind., where they’ll stop for the night, compare notes, evaluate the data and provide yield projections for the state.

“We’ll finalize our Ohio numbers at the end of today and release those this evening. The goal is to find out what the yield potential is in the state of Ohio,” Grete says.

“We will also be into eastern Indiana today, but we’ll release the Indiana results tomorrow,” Grete adds.

Initial Report From The Western Leg

Chip Flory, host of AgriTalk, is leading crop scouts on the western leg of the tour. He anticipates seeing some struggles underway in dryland crops in some states on the western tour.

“There’s some severe drought that has impacted eastern and northeast Nebraska, so I know we’re going to see some dryland crops that aren’t all that spiffy,” he says. “But from what we can see so far, the irrigated corn crop is in really pretty good shape and carrying some good yield potential out there.”

Flory adds that the soybean crop is showing some signs of drought stress and disease pressure. “On the drive over we saw some yellowing in the crop, so we will be looking for sudden death syndrome as we check fields,” he says.

Some good news is scouts are seeing better corn and soybeans in South Dakota, according to Farm Journal’s Michelle Rook.

Looking Ahead The Next Four Days

The goal for the week, Grete says, is to let farmers know what scouts are finding in each state so they can compare the results to what they have in their own fields. “We want farmers to be able to say at the end of the day, ‘OK, here’s where my crop stacks up versus what we had in these areas over the past three years for an average,’” he says.

Pro Farmer’s National Crop Production Estimates will be released on Friday. Follow along this week here on AgWeb and via social media. For X, check out #pftour23.

Are You Ready? Why the Eastern Leg of Pro Farmer Crop Tour Could Be the Big Story in 2023

Will Soybeans Swelter in the Heat? Here’s What to Watch During Pro Farmer Crop Tour

AgDay TV Markets Now: Bryan Doherty says Corn and Beans May be Forging a Low Waiting for Confirmation on Yield

Behind-the-Scenes Look: How Pro Farmer Crop Tour Scouts Gather Data

Tue, 15 Aug 2023 20:30:10 GMT

Pro Farmer Crop Tour ‘s data-gathering methods are disciplined, which produces consistent results. Those numbers then have a big impact on Pro Farmer’s annual crop production estimates released on Friday at the conclusion of Crop Tour.

Scouts: More than 100 “scouts” (farmers, media, agribusiness and Pro Farmer staff) are organized into teams that fan across 20 pre-determined Midwest routes Monday through Thursday.

Read More: How Scouts Use Their Tour Observations

The Eastern leg begins sampling in western Ohio, working its way across Indiana, Illinois, eastern Iowa and then southern Minnesota. The Western leg begins in southern South Dakota, then across eastern Nebraska, western Iowa and into southern Minnesota. Both sides of Crop Tour conclude in Rochester, Minn., on Thursday, Aug. 25.

Scouts attend a training session prior to the Crop Tour and each team of two to four people includes at least one experienced scout. The assigned routes that the scout teams travel have been consistent over the years to assure comparability.

During Crop Tour, scouts stop every 12 to 15 miles along a marked route (or at least once in every county). Each team of scouts gathers about 15 samples per day, preferably where corn and soybean fields are together.

While scouts will search fields during the day, nightly meetings give farmers the unique opportunity to hear those results first-hand. Below is a schedule of the nightly meetings. Click here to register.

2023 In-Person Crop Tour Meetings

WESTERN TOUR
Grand Island, Neb.
Monday, Aug. 21
Riverside Golf Club | 2820 Riverside Drive | Grand Island, NE 68801

Nebraska City, Neb.
Tuesday, Aug. 22
Lied Lodge and Conference Center | 2700 Sylvan Road | Nebraska City, NE 68410

Spencer, Iowa
Wednesday, Aug. 23
Clay County Fair and Events Center | 800 West 18th Street | Spencer, IA 51301

EASTERN TOUR
Noblesville, Ind.
Monday, Aug. 21
Embassy Suites Noblesville | 13700 Conference Center Drive S. | Noblesville, IN 46060

Bloomington, Ill.
Tuesday, Aug. 22
DoubleTree by Hilton | 10 Brickyard Drive | Bloomington, IL 61701

Iowa City, Iowa
Wednesday, Aug. 23
Hyatt Regency Coralville | 300 East 9th Street | Coralville, IA 52241

FINALE
Thursday, Aug. 24
Rochester, Minn.
Mayo Civic Center | 30 Civic Center Drive SE | Rochester, MN 55902

Register to Attend Crop Tour!

Less than 60% of the U.S. Corn Crop in Good or Excellent Condition

Mon, 24 Jul 2023 18:31:07 GMT

The U.S. corn crop is consistently declining in condition. Currently 57% of the crop has a good or excellent rating, according to the latest Crop Progress report from USDA . Last week 58% of the crop was in good or excellent condition.

This current rating ties with 2019 for the week’s worst corn condition rating since 2012.

The latest weekly decline in corn condition was led by 9% drop in South Dakota, a 7% drop in Iowa and a 5% drop in Missouri.

Meanwhile, Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota and North Carolina all saw a 4% or more increase in the good-to-excellent category.

As of mid-August, 94% of the corn crop is silking versus a 97% average; 62% of the corn crop is at the dough stage versus a 65% average; and 16% of the crop is dented versus a 20% average.

For soybeans, 58% of the crop is in good-to-excellent condition. That is a one percentage point decline from last week.

The states that saw the biggest weekly decline in soybean good or excellent condition include:

Louisiana: -9%
Nebraska: -6%
Iowa: -8%
Kansas: -5%
South Dakota: -5%

Arkansas, Michigan, North Carolina, Tennessee and Minnesota all saw a 4% or more increase in the good-to-excellent category.

In terms of soybean growth stage, 93% blooming of soybeans are blooming, which is average; and 74% is setting pods versus a 77% average.

As of Aug. 9, 66% of the U.S. was experiencing abnormal dryness/drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor . Drought conditions improved across the northern and eastern Corn Belt over the past week, while they worsened in western and southern areas.

Currently, drought is prevalent in southern Iowa and much of Missouri. Much of southern Minnesota is also experiencing at least some notable degree of dryness. East of the Mississippi River, dryness and drought cover less area, but small areas of D1 can be found in northern Wisconsin, east-central Michigan, and in a swath extending from east-central Illinois into west-central Tennessee.

View from the Field

The annual Pro Farmer Crop Tour provides insights into potential corn and soybean production and gathers scout reporting from 2,000+ fields across Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio and South Dakota.

The 2022 event will run from Aug. 22 -25. Register to attend a nightly meeting !

“Heading into this year’s Tour, we know the corn crop is behind average in maturity after planting delays in some areas,” says Brian Grete, Pro Farmer editor. “It’s debatable how much crop condition ratings equate to final yield, but this year’s crop was just a tad below average when pollination started. A key to this year’s Tour is if we find enough bushels in the good areas to offset the poorer areas.”

Read More: 2022 Crop Tour: A View From The Field

Pro Farmer Crop Estimates Far Below USDA Expectations

Wed, 05 Oct 2022 18:44:12 GMT

Pro Farmer shared its much-anticipated production estimates today for the 2022 U.S. corn and soybean crops after analyzing information from the 30th annua l Pro Farmer Crop Tour and other sources. The estimates are informed by Crop Tour data and observations collected this past week by more than 100 crop scouts who sampled nearly 3,400 fields across Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa and Minnesota.

Corn Yield Estimates

“The question heading into Crop Tour was whether there would be enough bushels in the eastern Corn Belt to offset the bushels lost in the drier western areas,” says Brian Grete, Pro Farmer editor . “After Crop Tour, the answer is: Clearly, there won’t be enough in the east to offset the west, not nearly enough.”

Illinois: Corn in Illinois was relatively consistent, but it lacked the “wow” factor required to produce a superior yield. The crop in southern Illinois, which isn’t on the Pro Farmer Crop Tour route, isn’t poor, but it won’t pull up the state average.

Indiana: The Indiana corn crop has plenty of ears, but grain length is an issue. Many of the ears pulled during Crop Tour had notable kernel abortion at the tip.

Iowa: Of all the states sampled on Pro Farmer Crop Tour, Iowa had the most variability . The state has plenty of exceptional corn, and some areas will produce the best yields ever. But there’s also a fair amount of average and sub-par fields in the state.

Minnesota: Central and southeastern areas of Minnesota will carry the load this year. Other areas of the state have some issues.

Nebraska: Dryland corn in the Nebraska is baked, and even the irrigated corn was hurt by the heat and dryness. Plus, the state had damage from hail and wind. There has been too much stress on the crop.

Ohio: Ohio has a very good corn crop, but it won’t rival 2021’s record yield. There’s far more variability in the state this year, especially on grain length, which will hold back the crop.

South Dakota: Pro Farmer Crop Tour samples the southeast portion of South Dakota, which is normally the sweet spot . That isn’t the case this year. Areas north of where the Tour samples will be better, but the state as a whole has issues.

Soybean Yield Estimates

“From what I’ve seen, the yield factor is there for soybeans to have a strong finish if weather is favorable leading up to harvest, I just don’t think it’s quite as strong as what USDA estimated because of the dryness in Nebraska, western Iowa and South Dakota,” said Grete.

Illinois: There is loads of potential with the Illinois soybean crop , and there is plenty of soil moisture to fill pods. Another rain would push much of the state’s soybean crop to the finish line.

Indiana: It rained ahead of and right after Crop Tour. Indiana has plentiful soybean moisture to finish strong. The Tour found some fields that were still flowering, but there should be enough moisture to set and fill pods.

Iowa: Iowa’s soybean crop is disease and weed-free . Recent rains came in time to help much of the western Iowa crop, though this area will need September rainfall to finish strong. Some eastern areas of the state have enough moisture to finish.

Minnesota: Sudden Death Syndrome has reared its ugly head in some areas of Minnesota . The next one to two weeks will determine if disease pressure hurts yield potential. Moisture supplies are strong enough to finish the crop.

Nebraska: Dryland soybeans are hanging on and a late-season rain could allow plants to maintain their pods. Nebraska farmers haven’t given up on irrigated soybeans and are actively pumping water.

Ohio: Ohio has a slightly less mature crop than Indiana, but there’s plenty of moisture to get it to the finish line. Maturity of the crop is far enough along to finish given the typical extended season in the far eastern Belt.

South Dakota: There’s not much to say other than the South Dakota crop has been severely damaged by heat and dryness. The worst areas have already given up and others aren’t far from that level. Even a late-season rain wouldn’t do much to benefit some of the crop at this point.

Watch the broadcast of the Pro Farmer estimates:

The national estimates reflect Pro Farmer’s view on production and yields. They take into account data gathered during Crop Tour and other factors, such as crop maturity, historical differences in Crop Tour data versus USDA’s final yields and areas outside those sampled on Crop Tour. As a result, the state yield numbers differ from Crop Tour figures released the past week.

Based on August FSA-certified acreage data, Pro Farmer increased soybean acreage by 500,000 acres but made no adjustment to corn acreage.

Pro Farmer Crop Tour, Day 2: Weather Scars Mark Nebraska, Indiana Fields Hit-Or-Miss

Wed, 05 Oct 2022 18:44:12 GMT

Last Thursday, USDA’s drought monitor showed D1 to D4 drought levels spanning the West, including Nebraska.

Tuesday’s Crop Tour trek through eastern Nebraska gave scouts a glimpse at the moderate to exceptional drought Mother Nature has brought down on soil and crops this growing season.

Western Leg of Pro Farmer Crop Tour 2022

Brent Judisch, western leg scout and Iowa farmer, says Nebraska’s stress-riddled corn crop is even more bizarre than he could have imagined.

“We had some ears with tip-back from the top three inches to the bottom two inches,” he says. “Zipper ears and top throwback is common, but not on both ends of the ear — it was consistent from top-down and bottom-up. That’s something I’ve never seen before.”

Cass co NE is dry. Big cracks in the soil #pftour22 pic.twitter.com/HyfnLjT1xQ
— Ted Seifried (@TheTedSpread) August 23, 2022

Lack of rain is only one part of the stress story this season, according to Judisch, He says drought, heat and hail created the perfect storm, pushing down yields in the 17 to 35 bu. per acre range.

Irrigated corn managed to hang on, but didn’t hold an average. Scouts counted 140 bu. to 150 bu. per acre in some fields, which is down roughly 35 bu. to past years. Local producers, however, feel all hope is lost.

“These ears are still upright, for the most part. A lot of mine have dropped, which means rain is not going to help,” says Randy Huls, Cortland, Neb. farmer. “We’re looking at [harvesting] next week for those short season, early plants.”

Huls says he hasn’t harvested in August since 2012.

Soybean’s story is even more grim than corn in Nebraska, as Judisch reports the state’s 2022 soybean crop is the worst he’s seen in his 10 years of Crop Tour.

“This year, these beans are showing stress in the afternoon when the leaves are upside down,” he says. “There are areas in the field where there’s some browning going on, where they’ve given up.”

While scouting in the Western leg of #PFTour22 today, we saw some challenges as a result of late plantings, replant on both corn and beans, a late May frost, and multiple hail storms. pic.twitter.com/9Mmn6JxgDY
— Taranis Ag (@TaranisAg) August 23, 2022

Historically, Nebraska soybeans have performed well; particularly in the past few years according to year-over-year data from USDA.

The view from Indiana looks much different than Nebraska, with some saying the eastern leg’s crops are mixed and patchy.

Eastern Leg Pro Farmer Crop Tour 2022

Driving up to corn fields in Indiana, the crop looks healthy, according to AgDay’s Michelle Rook. However, as eastern leg crop consultant Mark Bernard got into the field, he was disappointed to find spots with brittle-snap and tip-back.

“This goes back to the moisture situation and heat,” Bernard says. “It’s certainly not the seven- to-eight-inch-type ear we like to see.”

Local producers know this tale all too well, as late planting got the best of some Indiana and Illinois corn fields this spring, followed by extreme weather .

Some nasty storm damage in McLean County, Illinois. The band of shredded, and lodged corn went for 4 miles. #pftour22 pic.twitter.com/suDqGDgSMX
— Zach Egesdal (@ZachEgesdal) August 23, 2022

Greg Chalfant, Winchester, Ind., farmer says his corn averaged 205 bu. per acre in 2021. This year, he foresees an average of 190 bu. per acre.

The drought has let up a bit in Indiana and Illinois allowing for late-planted soybeans to shift into high gear.

This year’s pod counts are running higher than last year and the three-year average of 1,149 pods.

McLean county Illinois really clean beans #pftour22 pic.twitter.com/v8NIp3iV2R
— Mike (@BerdoMike) August 23, 2022

“Soybeans are looking really good,” says Kevin Lemenager, Morovia, Ind., farmer. “We’ve had timely rains in August, and that’s usually when beans are made. “I’ve got a lot of high hopes about our soybean yields.”

For exclusive access to professional grade news, analysis and advice, subscribe to Pro Farmer here .

Pro Farmer Crop Tour, Day 1: South Dakota Conditions 'Disappointing,' Grain Length Takes a Hit in Ohio

Wed, 05 Oct 2022 18:44:12 GMT

Nearly 90 crop scouts hit the road on Monday to collect growing season information on corn and soybean production potential for the 30th Pro Farmer Crop Tour .

Some fields looked exactly as scouts expected while other fields showed surprises.

Western Leg Yield Estimates and Analysis

Leading up to the week, scouts knew crops on the western leg of the tour were in dire need of water. While recent rain greened up vegetation, some say it’s too little too late, especially for corn in South Dakota. Scouts say day one can be summed up in one word: Disappointing.

A first for me and my counterparts. Herman, NE. No ears. #pftour22 pic.twitter.com/86TVY2yO6p
— Jarod Creed (@JrodCreed) August 22, 2022

“When you get into an area where the planting date wasn’t anything spectacular, it was a little bit late,” says AgriTalk Host Chip Flory. “The heat we had during pollination is showing up in ear samples due to shotgun pollination, or not getting pollinated on the butt or tip of the ear.”

Flory estimates the 100-bu. corn yield might get knocked down to 80 bu. due to reduced kernel size.

Western Crop Tour consultant Brent Judisch saw drought stress from the beginning, and said it got worse as he traveled west.

“The corn had major pollination problems, some with ‘zipper’ ears and no viable kernels,” he explains. “This is my 10th time through South Dakota on Crop Tour and it was the worst I’ve ever seen it by far.”

The soybean crop seems to be faring better than corn on the western leg.

5 stops in northeast Nebraska (Cedar, Knox, Pierce, Wayne Counties), 1 irrigated. Average pod count on #soybeans 1119 in a 3x3 foot plot vs the 3yr tour avg in this district of 1181. Not terrible, but many of those pods may not survive without rain soon. #pftour22 pic.twitter.com/3BcFeW4TPn
— Karen Braun (@kannbwx) August 22, 2022

“The nodes on these plants are further apart than what you would like to see the nodes or where the pods forming,” says Flory of Monday’s South Dakota beans. “You’d like to see three, four, even five bean pods per node. Instead, we’re seeing one, two, maybe three bean pods per node.”

Possibilities of moisture in the area might salvage the bean crop, but Flory doesn’t feel the plants are quite “up and running” yet in South Dakota.

Judisch reports an average soybean pod count of 1,330 and says the crop likely won’t finish that strong.

“There are a lot of beans suffering, and many pods will be aborted,” he says. “Many bean plants are basically while with leaves upside down and some aborting pods, and that’s going to keep happening unless they get rain help very soon.”

Eastern Leg Yield Estimates and Analysis

Extreme weather situations, including the annual Derecho , hit regions on the eastern leg of the tour earlier this year. While the eastern Corn Belt might not be nearly as dry as its western counterpart, yield potential looks lower than a year ago, reports AgDay’s Michelle Rook.

Fields were still wet this morning after rain fell over the weekend in Ohio, which should be especially beneficial for the soybean crop. Pro Farmer’s Brian Grete says soybeans were variable, though not as extreme as corn. Pod counts ranged from 650 to 2,500, though most were 1,000 or higher, he says.

Central Ohio farmer Josh Yoder says late planting, replanting and water damage sealed the deal on a lower-than-average soybean crop this year. However, he remains hopeful.

Beans and corn are ‘okay’ in northwest Ohio. But grounds are saturated, pods are small. Decent potential *IF* we start seeing warm dry weather soon. #pftour22 pic.twitter.com/3Vtq575UpQ
— forecastguy (Jason Cali) (@forecastguy) August 22, 2022

USDA’s August WASDE report estimated a 57-bu.-per-acre average, which some, including Yoder, are unsure will be attainable.

On the heels of 2021, the best crop Grete has ever seen in Ohio, he says the 2022 crop is “maybe a little better than a typical Ohio crop based on my initial small sample size.” In 2021, corn averaged 185 bu. per acre, which was 16 bu. above the three-year average.

Yoder says their corn APH is around 200 bu., but he thinks they will have fields above and below that mark.

Last 4 stops in Indiana on day 1, getting worse as we move west toward Indy #pftour22 pic.twitter.com/NxgmXJCf1z
— Andy Wold (@AndyWold01) August 22, 2022

“We’re going to have relatively low yields on fields that don’t have good drainage. I would say somewhere in the 150-bu. range,” Yoder says. “But I would expect our well-tiled and drained fields will yield early-to-mid 200s.”

Eastern Crop Tour Consultant Mark Bernard says there were a lot of wet fields and standing water. He saw some disease pressure in corn and soybeans, but nothing too serious.

“Right out of the chute, we had a 266 bu. per acre estimate in Marion County and then estimates fell back into a more normal corn yield trend for Ohio in the 150 bu. to 170 bu. per acre range,” he says. “Soybean pod counts were variable. We had a high of 1, 824 in Seneca County and then a zero in the same county, which is probably a replanted field that was flowering but had no pods.”

Bernard says the overall crop health is decent but it’s going to have to dry out and stay on the warmer side.

“This crop will need all of September for full development to occur,” he adds. “We saw very little dented corn. In some bean fields, the pods were flat.”

For exclusive access to professional grade news, analysis and advice, subscribe to Pro Farmer here .

Follow along with Crop Tour:
Understand the Pro Farmer Crop Tour Data-Gathering Process
Anticipation Is High Ahead Of Pro Farmer Crop Tour, Analysts Caution It Could Be A Big Market Mover
Here Are the Big Questions Analysts Want Answered on Pro Farmer Crop Tour

Anticipation Is High Ahead Of Pro Farmer Crop Tour, Analysts Caution It Could Be A Big Market Mover

Thu, 22 Sep 2022 02:42:54 GMT

The commodity markets started and ended the week under pressure. A week ago, USDA’s August crop production estimates pointed to a smaller corn crop, but that yield reduction didn’t seem to matter to the markets this week.

Arlan Suderman of StoneX Group says immediately following the report release a week ago, the initial reaction from the algo computers was bearish, as he says those trades are only reaction to what they’ve been programmed.

“That tells me the funds programming those algos had expectations that we’re going to see USDA slash the yields for corn and soybeans, and they were disappointed USDA did not,” he says. “So they sold off those markets hard, then the human element brought those markets back. That was encouraging.”

Suderman says even though USDA didn’t make a large adjustment to soybeans, it’s too early to know where yields could land.

“Are there problem areas? Yes. Are there some really good areas? Yes, I really can’t argue with a trend yield for Aug. 1, because that possibility is still there,” Suderman says .

Suderman says USDA’s decision to trim the national corn yield to 175.4 bu. per acre is something he thinks will be trimmed even more in the months ahead.

“Corn maturation was sped up more by the heat we had this summer, and that tends to lead to smaller kernels, although we’ve cooled down since then,” he says. “But we still have a lot of areas that are dry,” he says. “I think we’re going to see those yields drop down to low 170s. Maybe even more than that. But we’ll learn a lot next week about crop health across the Midwest.”

What the Markets Are Watching

Kristy Van Ahn-Kjeseth of Van Ahn and Company says next week’s Pro Farmer Crop Tour could reveal a lot about this year’s crop potential, especially considering areas of the upper Midwest have seen conditions dry out recently.

“Iowa did get some great rains, some slow, perfect rains the other day, but there’s a lot that needs to come for those other areas and we have a crack at it over the next five days,” she says. “That’s going to be the biggest question. Do we actually see that happen?”

Do USDA’s Yield Projections Stack Up

Suderman says he’s also watching Pro Farmer Crop Tour closely next week, as he wants to see if the scouts discover the same reports he’s hearing anecdotally.

“This Crop Tours is our first opportunity to see how widespread the good is versus how widespread the bad is,” he says, “and to really get a feel for not only ear health on the corn, but how long are the ears? What’s the girth of the ears? How widespread are the tip back problems we’ve been hearing about?”

He’s also keeping a close eye on pod counts. There are reports of shorter beans across the country, but sometimes short soybeans can produce strong pod counts.

Suderman says the 2022 Pro Farmer Crop Tour has the potential to be an even bigger market mover than normal.

“I think there’s a lot of potential energy in this market, so we’ll be looking to see if the Tour does reveal anything that would give the funds that reason to jump back into this market after they’ve liquidated a lot of their positions,” he says. “If it doesn’t, then it comes down to harvest data. But that opportunity is certainly there for it to be a big market mover.”

Van Ahn-Kjeseth says USDA has been aggressive on adjusting the corn yield lower, so next week’s Tour will give some insight into if those cuts are justified.

Follow complete coverage of the 2022 Pro Farmer Crop Tour .

Pro Farmer Crop Tour, Day 4: Saved the Best Crop Conditions for Last

Fri, 26 Aug 2022 01:40:45 GMT

Pro Farmer Crop Tour attendees made their way to Rochester, Minn., this evening.

The trek north came with wet fields, pests and the best crops some scouts found this week.

Western Leg of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour 2022

Brad Nelson, a Minnesota farmer, says a wet spring and late planting didn’t hurt his corn yields.

“It was May 7 when I started, but we had a really good week of weather after we planted,” he says. “After we planted, it was up in eight days — it all came up, which was a big key to our success.”

Thanks to timely rains, Nelson is confident he will have record corn yields come harvest.

4th stop 204.9. green leaves all the way to the ground.
Soybeans very short 428 pod count. Lincoln county#pftour22 pic.twitter.com/IfB5aXajlV
— Corey Hulke (@coreyhulke) August 25, 2022

Tim Gregerson, a scout and Nebraska farmer, says his Minnesota samples have more kernel depth than three-quarters of the samples he’s taken all tour.

“The one thing that impressed me most is the ear count,” he says. “Here in southern Minnesota, ear count ... is better than Iowa on the samples we’ve taken today.”

Soybeans took a hit in Minnesota, along with other stops on the western leg this year. While the plants look decent, counts aren’t up to par.

“All summer long, I didn’t feel like beans had the oomph to really get over the top,” Nelson says. “Some of our pod counts aren’t even 1,000, so we’re a little bit light this year.”

Sudden Death Syndrome (SDS) lingers in fields near Nelson. He’s preparing for the worst and hoping for the best.

SDS showing up in Cottonwood county. Beans have a lot of potential in that field, but need to finish filling pods. #pftour22 pic.twitter.com/qR8aW7Hbq2
— Chip Flory (@ChipFlory) August 25, 2022

“We have a little bit of SDS here and there, and I know a couple of my friends have found some white in low-lying soil,” he says. “It’s out there, but whether now or whether later it’ll be a big factor in yield remains to be seen.”

Eastern Leg of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour 2022

In 2021, tar spot and corn rootworm wreaked havoc on yields in the east. This year, producers are more optimistic as pest pressure has remained at bay.

“We’re gonna be above the trend line,” says Scott Hingtgen, a Bellevue, Iowa, farmer. “We typically range in yield from 200 to 230 bu. and there’s an outside chance of getting 250.”

Johnson county, IA #pftour22 great start for the final day! pic.twitter.com/jQTlXdJIJE
— Kristi Goedken (@KristiGoedken12) August 25, 2022

According to Pro Farmer’s Brian Grete, he thinks Iowa’s corn yields will tip over 2021’s totals.

“There were some holes in eastern Iowa last year, especially in the northeast,” he says. “I’m not seeing those this year, anywhere. I think we’ll probably be above 2021.”

Grete also sees plenty of yield potential in soybeans, so long as they “get the moisture and finishing” they need before the season’s out.

984 on 15” rows and 1872 on 20” row soybeans on first two stops in IA. #pftour22 pic.twitter.com/kF1XOdJpHN
— Michelle Rook (@michellerookag) August 25, 2022

Eastern Iowa producers think they’ll hit at or above their APH.

“If we could catch a rain here, we could fill out what I call ‘bonus bushels’, says Rob Roettger, Dysart, Iowa farmer. “I really think our yields will resemble something in that 75 range.”

The big question for both corn and soybeans: Can the east make up for the problems in western Iowa? Grete says corn has a real shot, “but it’s too early to know on beans.”

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Home Stretch for Crop Tour: A mix of Baseball Bats for Corn and SDS in Soybeans

Thu, 25 Aug 2022 18:57:58 GMT

On day four of the 2022 Pro Farmer Crop Tour, morning found team leads Chip Flory pulling crop samples in Minnesota while Brian Grete was making his way into Iowa from Illinois.

“I’m finding more consistent crops here (near Waterloo, Iowa) than we saw in Indiana and Ohio but no real wow factor,” Grete told Davis Michaelsen, guest host of AgriTalk, on Thursday. “Iowa is going to have a really good crop, just not as good as last year.”

Grete said he was also encouraged by the corn crop he sampled in Illinois on Wednesday.

“We saw a 190.71-bushel corn average in Illinois. That’s down from the 196-bushel average we sampled in Illinois in 2021 but above the three-year average of 185.6 bushels,” he said.

“No baseball bats this year?” Michaelsen asked.

“They’re out here,” Grete replied. “There are some heavy ears. When you pull them off the stalk, that’s what gives you that baseball bat-like feel.”

With the Illinois soybean crop, Grete said scouts’ samples on Wednesday averaged 49.7 bu. per acre.

“Soil moisture ratings are up, which will help the soybeans,” he said. “The pods are there, and they’ll plump up. We just need good finishing weather—adequate sunshine and rain, and they’ll be fine. It’s a very good crop in Illinois, just depends on what weather we get between now and harvest as to yield outcome.”

More insights on the Illinois crop are available here: Corn Prices Chug Higher on Disappointing Pro Farmer Crop Tour Findings

Are Farmer Expectations Holding Up?
Chip Flory dropped in on the phone conversation and asked Grete whether what he saw in Illinois corn and soybeans lined up with the USDA report released on August 1.

“I’m trying to gauge what you saw against expectations in the August 1 survey,” Flory said. “Do you think farmer expectations (in Illinois) have changed?”

“Very little,” Grete replied. “For the most part, I’d say farmer expectations are about the same now as they were at the beginning of the month.”

With weeks to go before harvest, however, there’s plenty of time for those expectations – and the crops – to change.

Grete added that the best analysis of this year’s data will be to compare state-by-state results to past Pro Farmer Crop Tour data, with close attention to the percentage changes. You also need to factor in the historical difference for each state, he encouraged.

“We know the corn yield calculated during Tour will be different than USDA’s final yield for each state,” said Grete, Pro Farmer Newsletter editor. “On average since 2001, the Tour yield has been 6.3 bu. above USDA’s final national average corn yield.”

In The Home Stretch
In Minnesota, Flory was about halfway across the state this morning and had stopped in Blue Earth county to talk.

“North of where I’m at right now, I think scouts are looking at consistency in corn samples from field to field to field, between 190 to 210 bushels, and they’re not really seeing many of the outlier ears,” Flory told Michaelsen.

“I haven’t run into that consistency yet,” he added. “I’m on one of the southern (Minnesota) routes and am not seeing that consistency between fields in the samples I’ve pulled so far.”

In the three corn samples Flory had checked, he described them as having “one good ear, one so-so ear and one dud because of pollination that didn’t happen with the kernels at the end of the ear.”

On the other hand, he said, “I pulled one 230 bu. sample here, so we’re seeing a mix.”

Grain length of the ears he checked were a bit shorter than he liked to see. He attributed that to higher plant populations of 33,000-plus farmers planted last spring.

“Here in Minnesota, they tend to push population a little harder because the growing season isn’t as hot here as in Nebraska or even southern Iowa,” Flory said. “If you end up seeing a grain length that’s a bit shorter than what we had in Iowa but a bigger yield, it’s likely because there’s just more ears out here per acre.”

Currently, the bean crop in southern Minnesota looks good to Flory, but he has some concerns.

“One thing I noticed on my first and second stops in southern Minnesota is you could see Sudden Death Syndrome (SDS) starting to show up in the beanfield. Those fields have a ton of potential, but the SDS is going to move that crop along,” he said.

Since those stops, Flory said he’s been paying closer attention to all the soybeans fields he drives by.

“The soybean crop is not without its issues, and the corn crop is not without its issues, but boy, there are good corn and soybean crops here,” Flory said. “We just need to get them home.”

The Tour concludes tonight in Rochester, Minn. You can join the meeting or tune in at 8 p.m. Central for a 15-minute overview of the results and crop report: Register to attend

Read more coverage of the 2022 Pro Farmer Crop Tour .

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