Precipitation

Warm, Dry Spring Speeds Mississippi Planting Pace as March Freeze Forces Some Replanting

Thu, 26 Mar 2026 17:59:44 GMT

An unusually warm and dry spring is accelerating planting progress across parts of Mississippi, allowing farmers to move ahead of their typical schedule while also raising concerns about crop resilience and shifting acreage decisions.

On his farm in Sunflower County, Adron Belk’s planters are already running at full speed as conditions remain favorable.

“If everything goes well, the weather keeps on like it’s going, by the end of this week we should have all of our corn in the ground and probably all of our grain sorghum or milo,” Belk says.

Farmers Hit by March Freeze

Belk notes this year’s planting pace is slightly ahead of normal for his operation, though not unprecedented.

“It depends on who you ask… for us, this is about on time. Typically we’re a little bit later. I’d say maybe we’re a week earlier than normal,” he says. “A bit south of here, some guys planted a couple weeks ago and then we got an unexpected freeze.”

Corn in Mississippi hit by the freeze earlier this month.

(Chris, Mississippi )

That freeze is now creating challenges for some producers. Reports from nearby fields suggest damage to early-emerged corn, with some needing to be replanted.

“There’s a lot of talk going around right now of some of the corn looking like about 20% has got to be replanted, which was kind of a surprise,” Belk says. “Most of the time when you get freezes like that, the corn comes out of it.”

Buggy-whipping often occurs as corn recovers from freeze. This happens as new growth temporarily hangs on dead vegetation. They should soon pull free with little adverse effects.

For reference, the corn in the last photo still made over 250 bu/a despite severe hail damage. 🌽 pic.twitter.com/ptAO0nxYst
— Erick Larson (@MStateCorn) March 26, 2026

Focus on Fertilizer

Despite broader concerns about rising input costs across the U.S., Belk says his operation has avoided major supply issues so far.

“We book fertilizer early, and we’re very much in the South, and so we have not had any problems so far with getting supply,” he says.

While Belk is maintaining a relatively steady crop rotation — roughly a 50/50 split between corn and soybeans — other parts of the Mississippi Delta are seeing more dramatic changes.

Cotton Acreage Changes

Just north in Clarksdale, crop consultant Andy Graves says cotton acreage is expected to drop sharply this season.

“In this area, this is cotton country… it’s supposed to be,” Graves says. “We’re going to be about 50% off of what we planted in 2024.”

Graves says the reduction is significant, especially considering many growers typically plant thousands of acres of cotton each year.

“I’ve got guys that have been growing cotton — my average customer is going to grow three to four thousand acres of cotton every year — and a lot of these guys are going down to 500 to 1,500 acres,” he says.

He points to a combination of economic pressures behind the shift.

“The only reason they’re doing that is because they’re tied into a gin or they have a million-dollar cotton picker sitting there that they can’t park,” Graves says. “With what’s going on with fertilizer and fuel prices right now, it makes it even more unattractive to plant the stuff. The market isn’t there.”

Dry Conditions Aid Planting Progress

84% of the South is seeing dry conditions as of March 26, 2026

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

It’s not just the dry spring causing many farmers in the region to make strong progress and run slightly ahead of their typical planting window, it’s also how dry it’s been. According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor, 84% of the South is seeing dry conditions as of March 26, 2026. If you look just at Mississippi, 68% of the state is seeing some level of drought.

Farmers say there’s enough topsoil moisture to plant the crop, but the drought picture this early in the year is a concern.

Mid-March Heat Wave Shatters Records in the West — Is This a 2012-Style Setup?

Fri, 20 Mar 2026 17:02:58 GMT

A powerful and persistent heat wave is sweeping across the western United States, shattering temperature records and fueling growing concern among farmers and ranchers about what it could signal for the months ahead.

From the deserts of the Southwest to the inland Northwest, the scope and intensity of this early-season heat event is turning heads. More than 60 daily record highs have already been set, with temperatures reaching levels far more typical of late spring or even midsummer.

Forecast high temperatures today through Monday. Tomorrow still appears to be the worst of it, before a "cold front" enters the picture...#desertfarmers #cowx #wywx #kswx #newx #okwx #txwx pic.twitter.com/vQ3NXruOrG
— Brian Bledsoe 🐊 (@BrianBledsoe) March 20, 2026

In Palm Springs, the mercury surged to a scorching 103°F. Phoenix hit its first 100°F day of the year — marking the earliest occurrence on record and breaking a longstanding record set in 1988. Meanwhile, Boise climbed to 80°F, the earliest date that threshold has been reached since record keeping began in 1875, and only the second time it has ever happened during winter.

For producers already navigating tight margins and dry pasture conditions, the question is immediate and pressing: With the current drought picture and early extreme heat, is this a similar setup to 2012?

A Stubborn Pattern Takes Hold

According to Brian Bledsoe of Brian Bledsoe Weather, the current heat wave is being driven by a dominant atmospheric feature that is effectively locking in warmth and shutting out precipitation.

“Well, the good thing about this time of year is that with the seasonal change that takes place, we usually see some weather variability take place along the way, instead of just getting locked into these things for just weeks on end,” Bledsoe explains. “And I think that’s an important thing to consider here. First of all, that I’m much happier that this is occurring now, if it has to occur — versus, say, in July or August, because we’ll see this thing break down eventually.”

The high heat in the West is forecast to stick around until at least early April.

(Brian Bledsoe, Brian Bledsoe Weather )

He says the current setup isn’t brief in the short term, with the forecast map showing the high heat sticking around through at least early April.

“If we look at our forecast temperature anomalies right through April 1, you see that big orange and red blob over the West and the Southwest. And for that matter, across a large part of the country. This ridge is not just going to impact the West. I’s going to spread its way eastward,” Bledsoe explains.

That expansion of warmth could bring above-normal temperatures to regions that have not yet experienced much seasonal heat.

“It’s going to bring a substantial amount of warmth to some areas of the country that haven’t been necessarily all that warm,” Bledsoe says. “So we’re locked in this at least through the end of March.”

Heat and Dryness Go Hand in Hand

The same high-pressure ridge driving the heat is also suppressing precipitation — a combination that is particularly concerning for agriculture.

“Precipitation anomaly-wise, that’s also going to be kind of owing to what this ridge is about, which is just kind of blocking any big storms from coming in from the Pacific,” Bledsoe says. “So, wherever you’re seeing the brown, that is likely where we’re going to see drier-than-average conditions through the same time.”

Much of the Southwest, and the central and southern Great Plains, missed out on precipitation, and instead dealt with a dry, warm and windy week.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

Why that’s so concerning is the latest U.S. Drought Monitor, which shows 41% of the nation’s corn production area is already in drought . For cotton, 89% is facing dry conditions. For cattle country, 54% of the current cattle inventory is experiencing drought.

This week’s drought picture reflects a sharp split across the country. While areas of the upper Midwest and East saw rain and snow, much of the Southwest, central and southern Plains, and parts of the western U.S. experienced a dry, warm and windy week, which worsened conditions.

Drought and abnormal dryness expanded or intensified across areas like South Dakota, Nebraska, southwest Kansas, southern Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada and parts of Oregon that missed out on meaningful moisture. Overall, while some regions saw clear improvements, the lack of precipitation and ongoing moisture deficits continue to drive worsening conditions across a broad swath of the western and central U.S.

That lack of moisture, combined with unseasonable warmth, could accelerate soil moisture depletion and stress rangeland and early-planted crops. Still, Bledsoe emphasizes the calendar offers some reassurance.

“There is some potential for this to break down, though, I think, as we get into April,” he said. “And I think, as I mentioned, that is a very important thing to consider.”

Ocean Temperatures Play a Major Role

Beyond the immediate atmospheric setup, Bledsoe points to broader oceanic influences that are helping fuel the current pattern, but more particularly what’s happening in the eastern Pacific.

“The other element of this is what’s driving this in terms of heat right now, and it has a lot to do with the sea surface temperature anomalies situated off the west and southwest coast of the United States,” he says.

“If you look at those sea surface temperature anomalies there off the Baja, that is a lot warmer than average than we should be. And if you go just to the south of there, that’s the western tip of South America, and that’s where our budding El Niño event is taking place,” Bledsoe adds.

Sea surface temperatures tell the story for what summer could bring.

(Brian Bledsoe )

Those warmer waters are part of a larger pattern known as the Pacific Meridional Mode (PDO), which can have significant impacts on U.S. weather.

“There’s a lot of warmer-than-average water that’s right there in the East and the Northeast Pacific Ocean,” Bledsoe says. “And any time you see this signature right there, especially off the southwest coast of California, the Baja, western New Mexico — that is referred to as the positive phase of the Pacific Meridional Mode.”

He says the current setup bears some resemblance to patterns seen in recent years, including 2023, when a rapid transition from La Niña to El Niño coincided with widespread heat.

“One important reference that I want to kind of draw a comparison to here is the last time we had a really positive Pacific Meridional Mode,” Bledsoe says. “This is what happened in July and August of 2023. And remember, I’ve talked about this before, but 2023 was the last that we went from a La Niña to an El Niño in a pretty quick fashion. And we also had that positive phase of the Pacific Meridional Mode.”

The result then was widespread warmth across the West and into the southern Plains and Gulf Coast. However, precipitation outcomes were more mixed.

“You might say, well, did that necessarily reflect a dry summer too? Were the precipitation anomalies dry for that? For some areas, but not everybody,” Bledsoe says. “And I’m not saying that 2023 is exactly what this upcoming year is going to be. I’m just trying to draw some parallels here from where we might see some of these things take place.”

Not the Same As 2012

Bledsoe says the current weather pattern bears watching, but it’s important not to confuse it with the historic 2012 drought. One of the biggest differences is the large-scale atmospheric and oceanic setup. In 2012, the U.S. was working from a weak La Niña base, and a persistent ridge of high pressure locked in over the central Corn Belt, cutting off moisture and allowing heat to intensify week after week. That kind of feedback loop is what turned a hot pattern into a historic drought.

Have talked about this more than once lately, but here is a look at the Ensemble Oceanic Niño Indices (courtesy of @webberweather) from 2010 through 2023. The ENS ONI for 2012 was negative early and slightly positive late. However, here is the sea surface temperature anomaly… pic.twitter.com/Q8PDo9XEhn
— Brian Bledsoe 🐊 (@BrianBledsoe) March 14, 2026

This year, the setup is fundamentally different.

“You can’t, from a sea surface temperature standpoint,” he says. “I’ve talked a lot about this on X. That same area of the ocean that I was just showing you just a little bit ago was a lot colder than average than where we are right now,” Bledsoe says. “So, there are different forces at work. When you get cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures off the west coast of North America, extended from the Baja all the way up to the Gulf of Alaska, a lot of times that is a very strong heat and drought signal for the center part of the country. And right now, that is the complete opposite.”

NOAA

(NOAA )

The transition into El Niño conditions tends to favor a more active storm track and can help keep systems moving across the country, rather than allowing a dominant, stationary ridge to take hold. Bledsoe points out while heat will still develop, especially in parts of the South and West, the overall pattern does not show the same prolonged, stagnant heat dome that defined 2012.

The current soil moisture levels and early-season precipitation are generally more favorable than they were heading into the 2012 growing season. Back then, much of the Corn Belt was already running dry before the worst of the summer heat even arrived, which allowed drought conditions to escalate rapidly. Today’s environment, while not without risk, starts from a less vulnerable position.

NOAA

(NOAA)

That said, Bledsoe cautions there are still areas to watch. While the central U.S. doesn’t appear poised for a 2012-style widespread drought, there are signals pointing toward heat and dryness across parts of Texas, the southern Plains and areas along the Gulf Coast. He notes a scenario where spring moisture gives way to drier summer conditions that could set the stage for localized flash drought concerns by mid-to-late summer.

Overall, Bledsoe says the takeaway is that while 2012 remains a benchmark for extreme heat and drought, the current setup does not mirror the same atmospheric drivers. The pattern this year appears more dynamic, with regional risks rather than a single, dominant, all-encompassing drought signal across the heart of the country.

A Critical Window Ahead

For now, the early-season timing of this heat wave may ultimately limit its long-term damage, but it does not eliminate risk.

“We obviously have to prepare for it,” Bledsoe says. “But the good thing about something occurring right now is that it’s transient. It will get out of here.”

He adds: “And I’m sure we’re going to see something that is probably more akin to that spring change soon.”

Until then, producers across the West, and increasingly across the central U.S., will be watching forecasts closely, balancing cautious optimism with the reality that the 2026 growing season is already off to an unusually hot start.

El Niño Watch: 62% Chance of Arrival This Summer, But Drew Lerner Warns Extreme Forecasts May Be Overblown

Fri, 13 Mar 2026 19:58:29 GMT

Farmers are keeping a close eye on the Pacific as La Niña, which has dominated weather patterns across much of 2026, begins to give way to El Niño. The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center (CPC) now reports La Niña persisted through February, with below-average sea surface temperatures across the east-central equatorial Pacific. However, rising subsurface ocean temperatures and weakening trade winds signal a likely shift to El Niño by this summer, potentially bringing dramatic changes to rainfall, planting conditions and crop development across the U.S.

CPC says that means the US. is now under an El Niño watch, forecasting a 62% chance that El Niño will emerge between June and August and continue through the end of 2026. But the event’s ultimate strength remains uncertain.

“There is only about a one-in-three chance that this could become a strong El Niño during October to December 2026,” CPC notes, underscoring the unpredictability farmers must plan around this year.

This transition from La Niña to El Niño could have major implications for the spring planting season in the Midwest, the central Plains, and the Southeast, where early dryness or shifting rainfall patterns may affect field work, soil moisture and crop progress.

While some meteorologists are saying there are signs this could be an extremely strong El Niño event , Drew Lerner, president of World Weather, cautions that strong of a declaration just yet.

A #LaNina advisory remains in effect. An #ElNino Watch has been issued. (2/2) https://t.co/5zlzaZ0D9Z pic.twitter.com/WpmK4dNKfn
— NWS Climate Prediction Center (@NWSCPC) March 12, 2026

Subsurface Ocean Warming Signals Early El Niño Development and Global Weather Shifts

What we do now is La Niña is making a quick exit.

Lerner says the current ocean subsurface warming is the early trigger for El Niño, which has far-reaching effects on weather patterns worldwide.

“The ocean subsurface water temperatures are anomalously warm, and we do see a strong upwelling current taking place as we move forward through the next several weeks,” Lerner says. “That will bring that warmer-than-normal water from below the surface up to the top. Once you bring it to the surface, you start shifting high and low pressure systems around the world. That’s when you’ll see El Niño beginning to influence everybody’s weather.”

Lerner notes farmers may not see immediate effects, but the pattern will begin influencing U.S. weather in a few weeks and become more pronounced by mid-summer.

“This is probably six to eight weeks before we really start to see any influence, and it will become more significant as we go through the Northern Hemisphere summer months,” he says. “We’ll likely see this El Niño become a little better defined by July and August.”

Understanding this early subsurface warming is critical for farmers to anticipate planting conditions, irrigation needs and crop development challenges.

Timing of El Niño Formation Remains Uncertain Despite Increasing Odds

While CPC forecasts a 62% chance of El Niño forming by late summer, Lerner warns several factors could shift or delay the event, making early-season planning more complex.

“There are a number of factors that could change that forecast quite a bit,” he says. “The Climate Prediction Center modified its official forecast from the raw model data. If you go to their website, you’ll see the actual forecast from their models suggests El Niño could be here in May, maybe even late April. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology also suggests it could begin in May or June. If that happens, weather around the world could start to change fairly quickly.”

Lerner stresses long-range forecast models are more reliable over three months and cautions farmers against assuming early signals guarantee timing or intensity.

“One factor is the strong easterly winds blowing across the equatorial Pacific,” he says. “If those winds lighten, it could delay the onset of El Niño. I have a lot of confidence we will move into an El Niño during the summer months, but the intensity and exact timing are still uncertain. My biggest question is how intense it will be, and at the moment, I want to play that down compared to what some forecast models have been suggesting.”

Farmers should track the weakening of trade winds and ocean temperature patterns closely, as these will influence planting schedules and fieldwork conditions in the coming months.

How Strong Could This El Niño Be?

Farmers are concerned about the potential strength of this El Niño, given its impact on rainfall, drought risk and crop yields.

“In 1998, we had a really strong El Niño that was disastrous, but it wasn’t predicted to be nearly as strong early on as it ended up being,” Lerner says. “This year is unprecedented in terms of early signals. It may also test our improved models, which attempt to forecast more than three months out. I think these models may be overreaching a little, and we could see the El Niño develop more slowly than some models suggest.”

Lerner predicts a moderately strong El Niño is possible, with peak impacts more likely in the latter part of the third quarter or into the fourth quarter of 2026.

“We might get to a very strong event, but not nearly as quickly as what some of the model data suggests today,” he says. “A moderately strong El Niño is a possibility, more likely later in the year.”

Farmers should be cautious about making early assumptions regarding extreme drought or flood events and plan for gradual changes in conditions.

Potential Impacts on U.S. Growing Season: Drier Springs, Variable Summer Rainfall

For U.S. farmers, the timing and intensity of this El Niño could bring mixed outcomes for planting and crop development. Lerner says a rapid transition from La Niña to El Niño can produce a drier bias in key agricultural regions.

“Our studies show that when we move quickly from a La Niña in January to an El Niño by June, the Midwest tends to have a drier bias in the spring,” he says. “This is particularly true in hard red winter wheat country and the central and southeastern Plains. That’s a concern because we already have dryness in some areas. A quickly developing El Niño could mean a fairly dry spring. That will help with field progress moving quickly, but crops may be limping along for a while.”

While spring dryness could help farmers get into the fields earlier, it may also stress emerging crops if rainfall does not arrive in time.

Lerner adds summer rainfall will likely vary by region.

“In the summer, situations like this often show improvement in rainfall in the Midwest and Northern Plains,” he says. “But the Delta, Mid-South, and southeastern U.S. have a tendency toward a drier bias with quickly developing El Niños. We already have some moisture deficits in the Delta, Tennessee basin and southeastern states. If rain intensities remain low, dryness could worsen as we move into late summer.”

Farmers in these regions may need to plan irrigation strategies and monitor soil moisture closely to offset potential dry spells.

Planning Ahead for Crop Management: Field Decisions, Irrigation and Risk Strategy

Lerner advises farmers to monitor early signals from the Pacific closely and to prepare for variability in precipitation and temperatures throughout the season.

“A quick movement from La Niña to El Niño could cause some spring problems in the Midwest, but much better conditions in the summer,” he says. “Meanwhile, the Delta and Southeast would probably see progressively more significant dryness by late summer. Farmers need to be aware and prepare accordingly.”

The key, he says, is understanding both the speed of El Niño development and its intensity to make informed decisions for planting, irrigation and crop management strategies.

“Pay attention and prepare for a spring with potential dryness in some areas and moderate rainfall improvement in others as the season progresses,” Lerner says. “This could influence how you handle fieldwork, fertilizer application and even crop marketing as the season develops.”

Early Planting Unlikely for Much of Eastern Corn Belt as Wet Pattern Dominates Spring Outlook

Mon, 09 Mar 2026 19:37:23 GMT

While some farmers may be enjoying the recent stretch of unusually warm temperatures, the broader spring weather pattern suggests early planting will likely be difficult across much of the eastern half of the country.

Matt Griffin, meteorologist with BAM Weather, says the start of March brings temperatures well above seasonal averages in many areas, particularly across the southeastern U.S. But those warmer temperatures are coming alongside an extremely active weather pattern that continues to deliver frequent rainfall.

The forecast points to an active moisture track from the eastern half of the country through March 12th.

(Matt Griffin, BAM Weather )

“Over the next week or so, it’s just going to be very warm,” Griffin says. “It’s going to continue to be very warm and very active.”

Griffin says the warmth is widespread across the eastern half of the country. In some areas of the eastern Ag Belt, temperatures are running significantly above normal for early March.

“We’re starting off March on a very warm note,” he says. “In fact, some of those colors into the eastern Ag Belt, the eastern U.S., in some spots 20 degrees above normal.”

However, the bigger concern for farmers isn’t the temperature. It’s the amount of precipitation expected to accompany the pattern.

Griffin says forecasts show a wide swath of rainfall stretching from Texas into the Ohio Valley, with some areas expected to see multiple inches of rain in a short period of time.

“With this pattern coming, a lot of rain,” he says. “In fact, you can see this corridor of rain from near Dallas stretching into the Ohio Valley.”

Flooding Concerns Already Building

Some parts of the eastern Midwest could see particularly heavy totals.

“The folks in the Eastern Ag Belt, lots of rain,” Griffin says. “That area of pink there suggests amounts of three-plus inches of rain.”

In parts of the region, the ground is already saturated from recent systems. Griffin says the combination of previous rainfall and additional storms raises concerns about flooding. He adds that the areas receiving the heaviest precipitation could continue to deal with high water issues.

“I think anywhere you see the purples and the pink colors, and especially the blue areas, we’re going to have a continuation of flooding issues as well,” Griffin says.

Mid-March Cold Front Brings Another Shift

Even though the opening stretch of March is unseasonably warm, Griffin says that warmth likely won’t last the entire month.

A colder air mass is expected to push through the country around the middle of March.

The forecast points to an extremely mild pattern for the western half of the U.S. in March.

(Matt Griffin, BAM Weather)

“The warmer temperatures I don’t think are here to stay necessarily,” Griffin says. “If we look at the following week’s pattern, this is around March 13th to the 19th, we do see a cold front that passes through.”

That cold front will help bring temperatures closer to normal across portions of the eastern Corn Belt, he says.

“It will help, especially for some of you folks in the Eastern Ag Belt, really knock down those temperatures a little bit,” Griffin says.

In addition to cooler temperatures, the system could bring another round of precipitation and even some late-season winter weather for northern areas.

“This would be a window for a sneaky wintery weather threat,” he says. “The Northern Plains into the Great Lakes, through Michigan and into the interior Northeast—not impossible.”

Active Storm Track Through March

Even beyond that system, Griffin says the broader weather pattern remains active through the remainder of March, especially in the eastern half of the country.

“Once again, I’m going to sound a little bit like a broken record,” Griffin says. “The Eastern Ag Belt and the Northeast, where the rain I think can be above normal in those spots.”

The active storm track could also bring severe weather risks at times as the region transitions deeper into spring.

Above normal to much above normal precipitation is in the forecast for the eastern part of the U.S., along with the northern tier of the country, as we finish March.

(Matt Griffin, BAM Weather)

“At times, not only this week but last week as well, there is some potential severe weather associated with this as we head into the first half of March,” he says.

Looking further into the month, Griffin says the divide between wetter eastern areas and drier western regions becomes more pronounced.

“Later into March, I do think we continue to see this active weather pattern into the Eastern Ag Belt in particular,” he says.

Forecast maps show significantly above-normal precipitation stretching from Ohio southward through Kentucky and Tennessee.

“Our latest forecast shows much above normal rains into Ohio, down into Kentucky, into Tennessee,” Griffin says.

Because of the ongoing storm activity, he says it would not be surprising to see additional severe weather events during the period.

“That active weather pattern remains,” he says. “Wouldn’t be shocked to see some bouts of severe weather.”

Meanwhile, conditions further west are trending in the opposite direction.

“It’s going to be a bit of an Ag Belt divided,” Griffin says. “Wet east, dry to the west.”

Temperatures are also expected to fluctuate frequently as the pattern evolves.

“We’re going to see ups and downs in our temperatures,” Griffin says. “I do think it’ll be a little bit of a roller coaster ride.”

He points to another cooler stretch likely developing around the third week of March.

“We get around March 18th through the 22nd, it’s probably going to be a little colder,” he says.

El Niño Influence Builds Into Spring

As the calendar turns to April, Griffin says longer-range indicators show an emerging El Niño pattern beginning to influence weather across the United States.

“What I think starts to occur is we start to feel a little more influence of our emerging El Niño,” Griffin says.

April’s weather pattern is shaping up to be divided, with below normal precipitation for parts of the West, and above normal precip in the South, along the Atlantic Coast and in the Northeast.

(Matt Griffin, BAM Weather)

That shift could move the corridor of heavier rainfall slightly farther south and east.

“What that’s going to do is shift the above-normal rains a little bit further to the south and to the east,” he says.

Areas such as northeastern Texas and the Tennessee and Kentucky River valleys may see an increased focus for precipitation.

“Where I think the focus of the rain will be is areas into say northeastern Texas into the Tennessee, Kentucky River valleys and some of those areas as well,” Griffin says.

Even so, parts of the central Corn Belt could still see periodic rain events.

“If you’re in areas eastern Iowa to Ohio, I still think there’s some rainfall opportunities there,” he says.

Watching Frost and Moisture Into May

Temperature patterns may also turn somewhat cooler in parts of the Plains during April.

“I do think this will be a little bit of a colder pattern, especially for some of you folks in the Northwestern Plains into the Northern Plains,” Griffin says.

He also says early April could bring the possibility of additional late-season winter weather in some regions.

“We may have some early April sneaky winter events as well,” he says.

May looks to turn dry in the heart of the U.S., with below normal temperatures in the east and heat in the West.

(Matt Griffin, BAM Weather)

By May, the broader weather pattern may shift again as the El Niño signal strengthens.

“I think the colder air that we talked about in April does start to bleed to the east,” Griffin says.

At that point, rainfall may concentrate more heavily across the southern tier of the country.

“We continue to see this transition more into this El Niño,” he says. “The southern jet stream is just going to be a little bit more energetic.”

That setup could bring above-normal rainfall to the desert Southwest, Gulf Coast and southeastern U.S.

“I think that’s where the rain, above normal rains, are going to be more focused,” Griffin says.

Meanwhile, parts of the Plains may trend drier as spring progresses.

“You can see much below normal at this point into areas into the Plains—the Northern Plains, the Central Plains,” he says.

Despite those shifts, Griffin says the temperature outlook for May does not currently suggest extreme heat.

“At this point we’re not talking about any extreme temperatures one way or the other,” he says.

He notes the dryness across parts of the western Ag Belt could become a concern if it persists.

“All of the outlooks I mentioned out further to the west and to the Western Ag Belt were relatively dry,” Griffin says.

Still, he says there is at least some positive news in the seasonal outlook.

“I guess if there’s one silver lining… I don’t think we’re talking necessarily about extreme heat at this time,” he says.

One additional factor farmers will be watching closely is the possibility of a late spring frost in northern areas.

“I do think we need to watch May as far as late frost concerns,” Griffin says.

Regions such as the Northern Plains, Michigan and the Northeast may face the greatest risk.

“Those would be areas at risk for a late frost,” he says.

However, Griffin says the broader Corn Belt may largely avoid that issue this year.

“For much of the Ag Belt, to be honest, I just think this year we largely avoid that risk,” he says.

Bottom Line for Planting

For many growers, though, the biggest immediate concern is the wet start to the planting season.

With repeated storms expected across the eastern Corn Belt, Griffin says field conditions will likely remain too wet to support widespread early planting.

“Especially east of Iowa, it’s just not going to happen in my opinion,” Griffin says.

He says the persistent rainfall throughout March and April makes early fieldwork unlikely in many areas.

“It’s just too wet for March, too much rain in April,” Griffin says. “I just don’t think it’s going to happen.”

As La Niña Looks to Make One of Its Quickest Exits on Record, Strong El Niño Signals Are Now Brewing

Tue, 03 Mar 2026 01:39:06 GMT

A rapid shift in the Pacific Ocean could soon reshape weather patterns across U.S. farm country, and according to Eric Snodgrass, it’s unfolding faster than anything he’s witnessed in his career.

Speaking to U.S. Farm Report during Commodity Classic, the senior science fellow for Nutrien Ag Solutions said the current La Niña pattern is collapsing at remarkable speed.

“It’s happening fast, actually, very rapid,” Snodgrass says. “In fact, in my career, I don’t think I’ve ever seen a La Niña die as fast as this one.”

This year’s El Niño will very likely become a strong event.

Yet another series of strong westerly wind bursts over the central Pacific will trigger a new downwelling Kelvin wave that further suppresses the thermocline in the East Pacific a few months now. pic.twitter.com/mvfA6kcNHx
— Eric Webb (@webberweather) March 2, 2026

That quick exit is raising a much bigger question: How quickly does El Niño take hold, and how strong does it become? It’s the answers to those questions that could shape the moisture picture for crops and pasture this spring and summer.

But it’s something all meteorologists are watching as it’s likely this year’s El Niño coudl be a strong event.

Plains Dryness Still Front and Center

Current soil moisture across the U.S. shows areas of the Midwest and South are in desperate need of moisture.

(Eric Snodgrass )

Even as ocean temperatures shift, drought concerns remain very real across portions of the Plains.

“I’m very concerned about snowpacking the Rockies,” Snodgrass says. “I’m concerned about the snowpack on the river system that feeds into the Platte River system through Nebraska, which is very, very dry. And the whole Mississippi is still low right now.”

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows shows much every state except California, North Dakota and parts of the Ohio Valley region are seeing some level of drought entering into March.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

Portions of the U.S. have seen some moisture relief this winter, while other parts of the country are in desperate need of moisture heading into spring.

“So we’ve solved some major issues that need to be overcome,” he says. “But spring can do that. The question’s going to be, does it happen in time?”

Timing, he emphasizes, is everything. He points to last year as an example of how quickly conditions can turn around.

“Don’t forget, last year when we were at Commodity Classic, there were dust storms coming out of Texas. There was a dust storm through parts of Kansas,” Snodgrass says. “We were talking the same story, and by May, it was all erased. So I have to learn to be patient in spring. Just remember that spring can undo all of winter’s problems in a heartbeat, and that’s where we sit right now.”

Still, patience doesn’t mean ignoring the warning signs. He cautions to keep a close eye on drought pockets across the Plains.

If you look at the precipitation since November, it shows the locations that have seen the driest winter months.

(IEM)

Models Going “After Very Aggressive Rainfall”

As La Niña fades, ocean waters across the tropical Pacific are warming. That warming is already influencing long-range model projections.

“The issue here is how quickly do we get El Niño-like behavior, and what you’re going to notice is because all of the weather forecast models make the ocean temperatures very warm on both sides of North America, they’re all going after very aggressive rainfall,” says Snodgrass.

He described current precipitation outlooks as above normal precipitation for much of the country this summer.

“If you looked at a map right now of the forecast precip for the summer, it’s just like wet for everybody except for Arizona,” he says.

But Snodgrass warned that such widespread wet signals deserve scrutiny.

“That’s always concerning because anytime I see the model swing for the fences, I’m like, ‘OK, I’ve seen it lose before.’ I want to make sure that I really see how things shape up,” he says.

Forecasted precip in the middle of March shows signs if change for the Delta.

(Eric Snodgrass )

He does believe some areas are likely to see meaningful relief.

“I think they’re going to see quite a bit of rain,” he says, referring to areas from the Plains into the Delta and Mid-South. “I think we’re going to get some severe weather out of it.”

“I think we’re going to be wiping out drought throughout the Delta parts of the Southeast and maybe as far back as southern Texas,” he adds. “So it may be raining here very, very soon, with some nasty storms, too.”

The 14-day precip outlook shows areas from Texas through the East could see some heavy moisture.

(Eric Snodgrass)

AccuWeather: El Niño is Brewing

Forecasters at AccuWeather are also seeing signals that El Niño is forming.

“The trends support El Niño developing late this spring to early this summer,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Chat Merrill says in a recent outlook.

However, forecasters caution that this time of year presents forecasting challenges known as the “spring predictability barrier,” when long-range models are often less reliable.

“Typically, the stronger the signal, the more confidence on impacts for a typical El Niño season,” says AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls. “There are early signs in the Pacific Ocean that El Niño is starting to develop, but this change is slow, and there are still several months for it to fully develop.”

That slower, steady development described by AccuWeather stands alongside Snodgrass’ observation that La Niña itself is collapsing unusually fast, creating a transition period that farmers will need to monitor closely.

Bam Weather: Similar to 2023, Moderate by Summer

Bret Walts, meteorologist with BAM Weather , agrees this is one of the quicker La Niña exits in recent decades, though he sees parallels to a more recent season.

“It is one of the faster ones in the past 20-plus years, but very similar to 2023, a more recent year,” Walts says. “I see a lot of similarities to that year ahead.”

Walts expects El Niño conditions to be firmly in place by late May or early summer.

“We will be in El Niño by late May / early summer and nearing moderate territory by the end of summer,” he said. “I do think we can make a run at strong territory, but it would be more into fall.”

Even if the event peaks at moderate strength during the growing season, Walts says it would still influence temperature and moisture trends.

“A moderate El Niño would aid in less substantial heat as we head into summer,” he explains. “These years tend to actually run a bit cooler — so less GDUs — especially for the eastern belt.”

However, cooler doesn’t necessarily mean wetter everywhere.

“They can suppress moisture in the Upper Midwest, especially early in the season, and pose drier risks,” Walts says. “But they also favor timely rains as we head through mid- to late summer.”

Overall, he sees more upside than downside for crop production.

“While a few localized areas could get drier, it’s a setup that is favorable for many in terms of growing conditions,” Walts says.

Could This Be a Strong El Niño Like 2015?

Snodgrass says ocean temperature projections suggest the event could strengthen significantly.

“I think right now we’re looking at ocean temperatures that could be more than a degree and a half above average, and if you look historically, the last time we saw this would have been 2015, and that was a big one,” says Snodgrass.

The last event of that magnitude was the powerful El Niño, which significantly altered global weather patterns.
But Snodgrass cautioned against assuming a repeat.

“2023 was the most recent El Niño event, but the timing was way different,” he says. “So I don’t know that we can draw a direct correlation. I don’t know if there’s a good precedent for like, ‘Oh, go look at this year.’ And so as a result, we’re all going to be just watching it carefully to see how it transitions.”

What Farmers Should Watch

For producers, the message is to stay vigilant, according to Snodgrass. He says to

Watch the drought pockets in the Plains.
Watch the snowpack and river systems.
Watch how quickly El Niño-like behavior begins influencing storm tracks.

Because if Snodgrass is right, and this is indeed the fastest La Niña exit of his career, then 2026 may hinge on how quickly the Pacific Ocean rewrites the script for moisture this spring and summer.

When Weird Corn Ears Wreck the Bottom Line

Mon, 02 Mar 2026 15:20:06 GMT

Abnormal corn ears may look like a cosmetic problem, but depending on the severity, they can deliver a significant hit to yield, reports Osler Ortez, Ohio State University corn specialist.

“If a field is managed for 200-bushel corn but only delivers 100 bushels because abnormal ears dominate, then every pound of nitrogen, every inch of irrigation and every pass you make across that field becomes much harder to justify,” he says.

Yield losses from abnormal corn ears can range from 35% to 91% in affected plants, with typical field-wide impacts often trailing lower, Ortez reports.

For reference, an “average” corn ear generally produces 16 kernel rows with about 800 kernels per ear, according to the Iowa State Extension.

Irregularities such as zipper ears (shown below), earless plants or multiple ears, reduce grain yield through poor kernel set, abortion or reduced kernel weight.

A common abnormality called zipper ear is caused by kernel abortion or failed pollination. The issue is often triggered by severe environmental stress during early grain fill or pollination from factors including drought, high heat or nutrient deficiency.

(R. L. Nielsen, professor emeritus and Purdue University Corn Specialist, retired)

Ortez emphasizes no single factor explains abnormal ear development. It’s nearly always the result of an interaction between three factors that corn researchers refer to as GEM:
G — Genetics (hybrid)

E — Environment (weather, stress)

M — Management (practices)

He adds that understanding when the stress is happening, the timing of it, is also important. For instance, early-season stress can limit ear initiation and potential ear number, while midseason issues impact pollination and kernel set. Late-season stress reduces kernel fill and overall weight.

Strategic Management Levers

While the weather can’t be controlled, Ortez says understanding the GEM interaction gives corn growers more leverage than they realize.

He lists three management decisions that can help growers mitigate the risk of abnormal ear development:

1. Evaluate the genetics: Treating hybrid selection as a defensive tool against ear problems — right alongside disease tolerance and standability — is one of the clearest ways to lower risk.

2. Pick a recommended seeding rate: In Nebraska field trials, Ortez observed abnormal ears increased at both ends of the seeding rate spectrum.

“Chasing a few extra bushels with aggressive populations, especially on drought-prone or otherwise stressed acres, often backfired when stress hit at the wrong time,” he notes. Conversely, pulling populations too low also created conditions where ear development went off track.

3. Consider the planting date: Researchers found planting hybrids outside the optimal window — either very early into cold, wet conditions or very late into heat and moisture stress — made it more likely sensitive growth stages would line up with damaging stress. Matching planting date to local recommendations and the strengths of a given hybrid proved to be an important way to reduce those risky overlaps.

Ultimately, by tuning into GEM, farmers can better safeguard their investments. As Ortez points out, the more sides of that triangle a farmer can stabilize or improve, the less likely a season’s worth of hard work and inputs will be undone by a field of problem ears.

Hear Ortez share more of his research on abnormal ear development in a recent podcast sponsored by the Crop Protection Network.

Smart Strategies for Topdressing Dry Fertilizer

Mon, 23 Feb 2026 20:12:17 GMT

If you’re topdressing corn acres this spring with dry fertilizer, keep in mind how that product is managed in a high-residue system will determine whether the fertilizer feeds your crop or disappears into thin air.

Ken Ferrie notes that farmers in his area, central Illinois, commonly use ammonium sulfate, urea and potash for topdressing. He says every hour untreated urea sits on the field surface is a chance for the nitrogen (N) in the fertilizer to gas off and disappear.

“The ammonium sulfate is stable, but the urea has potential to get away when it breaks down,” explains Ferrie, Farm Journal Field Agronomist.

That “getting away” is nitrogen loss caused through volatilization—when N escapes as ammonia gas instead of being captured in the soil as ammonium. In a corn-on-corn rotation, with a lot of stalks and leaves on the field surface for instance, the risk for volatilization is even higher.

Residue Can Supercharge Urease

The problem starts with a naturally occurring soil enzyme called urease. It’s what kicks off the breakdown of urea into ammonia and then ammonium. In a corn-on-corn field with lots of residue, the urease is supercharged.

“The thing about urease enzyme here in the surface with all this residue, it is 10 times higher than it would be in the soil,” he says.
The enzyme goes to work quickly, converting urea to ammonia at the soil–air interface, and that ammonia can simply drift off into the atmosphere. The more time it spends on the surface, the higher the odds of loss.

That’s why timing and management of dry fertilizer applications are critical.

“We sometimes say you need to keep the pin in the grenade – keep the urease enzyme at bay until we can get it worked in or rained in,” Ferrie says.

Evaluate Your Risk Potential

If tillage is in the plan, your solution to prevent volatilization is simple. Apply the fertilizer, then work it into the soil as soon as field conditions allow. When urea is incorporated, even lightly, any ammonia that forms is far more likely to be captured in the soil and converted to ammonium, where the crop can use it.

“There’s probably not a lot of worry in that scenario,” he says. “You’re going to incorporate this urea, and when it gasses, it’ll be in the soil, it’ll be captured.”

But not every system or scenario involves immediate tillage. In many no-till or strip-till fields, or when soil conditions are too wet for equipment, growers end up spreading fertilizer and then waiting on the weather to do the incorporation work. In those situations,
Ferrie warns, the risk of volatilization can increase quickly.

“If it’s going to lay out here and depend on rain [for incorporation], depending on how long that’s going to be, we’re going to need a urease inhibitor to give us time to get it rained in,” he says.

Urease inhibitors can temporarily slow or stop enzyme activity, giving farmers a bigger window before significant nitrogen loss occurs. For fields with a lot of residue, that extra time can make a big difference—especially when the forecast is uncertain.

Alongside conventional urea plus a urease inhibitor, Ferrie points to another option – using ESN, a polymer-coated, encapsulated urea.

“The ESN basically keeps the urea protected,” he says. “In that situation, if we lay it on the surface, you’re going to have about 60 days of protection. If you incorporate it, in our studies, [it] would show about 30 days of protection.”

ESN uses a physical coating to regulate how quickly water gets in and dissolves the urea. For growers who want extended protection or are looking to match nitrogen release more closely with crop uptake, that can be a useful tool. Still, Ferrie’s quick to point out that this isn’t a one-size-fits-all solution.

“It’s quite a bit more expensive,” he notes, underscoring the need to weigh costs against potential risks. For some high-yield, intensively managed corn-on-corn systems, the extra investment might pencil out. For others, a urease inhibitor on regular urea, combined with smart timing and placement, might be the more economical choice.

In addition, farmers need to think through when and how the urea in a fertilizer blend will get treated, Ferrie says If a urease inhibitor is added after everything is mixed together, you end up paying to “treat” nutrients that don’t actually need it.

“Treat the urea before you add the ammonium sulfate and the potash, or you’re going to end up treating all of the product, otherwise,” he cautions.

Timing of La Niña Exit, El Niño Entrance is Unclear, Raising Questions About Dryness for Spring and Summer

Wed, 21 Jan 2026 14:32:21 GMT

Farmers across the U.S. are watching the Pacific closely this year as NOAA predicts La Niña could exit faster than expected, potentially giving way to an El Niño later in 2026. While this transition could bring shifts in rainfall patterns, experts caution the change will likely be gradual, meaning parts of the country could remain dry well into spring.

NOAA is now forecasting La Niña to exit by spring and El Niño to possibly enter the picture this year, but not all meteorologists agree on the timing of that. Drew Lerner, agricultural meteorologist and founder of World Weather , says the key is when this transition takes place, and when warming ocean temperatures occur, as to how it could change weather conditions for not just planting but also the growing season ahead.

Two Weather Patterns Driving Dryness

What’s scary for farmers today is just how dry it is across parts of the West, Southwest, Southeast and Midwest. Similar to last winter, a dry fall was only exasperated by a fairly dry winter, with drought a growing threat heading into spring.

The map that shows percent of normal precipitation shows the areas of the country desperately in need of more moisture heading into spring for both crops and pasture conditions.

(World Weather )

Farmers have a reason to be concerned. According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor drought and dry conditions remain widespread across the country:

About 35.7% of the U.S. (including Puerto Rico) is in drought (D1–D4)
More than 42.5% of the Lower 48 is also in drought conditions
Moderate to severe drought levels have worsened in parts of south-central Texas into Arkansas/Missouri and from Florida to Virginia over the past week

Meanwhile, California, long a drought focal point, has recently been reported as drought-free for the first time in about 25 years after significant winter storms.

Over the next five to seven days, much of the western half of the U.S. is anticipated to be dry from the West into the Plains. The wettest areas are anticipated to be over the Great Lakes region and into the Northeast.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

What’s driving the dryness across the rest of the country? Lerner says it’s two-fold.

“We’ve actually got two major patterns at work right now,” Lerner says. “One is La Niña, which is definitely influencing the drier tendencies across the central U.S., and the other is an upper wind flow pattern tied to the lunar cycle. Together, they’re keeping cold surges coming into eastern North America and limiting rainfall across much of the Plains.”

Subsoil moisture maps also paint the picture of how dry it is across portions of the U.S.

(World Weather )

Current soil moisture charts also show large swaths of dryness in the west-central and southwestern Plains, amplifying concerns heading into spring.

“These areas aren’t likely to get another good drink of water anytime soon; we had a little break last week, but it’s temporary,” Lerner says. “Even though the Midwest doesn’t look too bad for this time of year, much of Missouri, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana and northwestern Ohio should already have saturated soil. Still, we’re in a droughty environment.”

The Big Debate: How Quickly Will La Niña Exit?

According to NOAA models, Lerner explains, La Niña is in place but expected to exit rapidly, with a possible shift to El Niño by May.

“You can see the ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are still cooler than normal,” Lerner says “To qualify for La Niña, you need roughly half a degree Celsius below normal, and that’s exactly what we have right now.”

World Weather’s Drew Lerner says if history is any indication, NOAA’s forecast model for ocean warming temperatures may be too aggressive.

(World Weather )

However, he warns that the NOAA model predicting a quick exit has historically been overly aggressive, and last year was a perfect example of that.

“If you look back at the last two years, the model forecast La Niña would develop by May or June, but it didn’t actually arrive until the fourth quarter,” Lerner says. “I think the model is too warm for a rapid exit this year as well. My expectation is that El Niño won’t really show up until the latter part of the third quarter or into the fourth quarter.”

Earlier this month, NOAA issued its latest La Niña forecast, saying La Niña is likely to persist for now, but that’s followed by a 75% chance of a transition to ENSO neutral during January to March. ENSO Neutral, according to NOAA, is likely to develop in at least the northern hemisphere through late spring 2026.

“Here’s what I take away from this, and I’ve been chatting about this and other meteorologists have been chatting about this for a while,” says Brian Bledsoe of Brian Bledsoe Weather . “I have great respect for NOAA and the National Weather Service, but to be honest with you, I think they’re a little late to the party with how this transition is going to unfold because what’s going on in the Pacific Ocean right now is a pretty significant transition away from the La Niña. So I think we have seen this event peak, and I think it is going to exit more quickly than maybe what NOAA’s forecast is currently suggesting.”

Bledsoe says not only does he think NOAA is late to the party in forecasting La Niña’s departure, but he also thinks the U.S. will see a transition to El Niño faster than what NOAA currently shows.

“Initially what that can do, and what that can mean, is that transition period, it can still have some dryness produce across the Plains and across the Corn Belt, at least early on in that transition,” Bledsoe says. “History suggests that after that early transition is gone, that a lot of us will have wetter than average conditions try to show up during the heart of the growing season.”

Bledsoe says that is several months away and difficult to forecast, but he says there are different models that indicate this scenario and a quick transition can also bring wild weather.

Brett Walz Sees a Neutral Spring, Possible El Niño Summer

Brett Walz, meteorologist with Bam WX , also thinks we could be saying good-bye to La Niña in the next couple of weeks.

“I’m starting to see the shifts and getting away from La Niña probably in the next couple of weeks,” he tells “AgriTalk’s” Chip Flory. “We’ll warm the waters up and get into what we call ENSO Neutral as we work into spring. I really think that by summer we can get into an El Niño.”

Walz also notes ENSO-neutral springs often bring a mix of dry and volatile conditions.

“The back half of the season tends to see some dryness, especially in the Upper Midwest,” he says. “May 2023 was a very dry month leading into planting and the start of the growing season, and I see some similarities here. Before that, March and early April could be a little volatile, with some ups and downs and even early-season severe weather.”

Implications for Spring Planting

For U.S. farmers, the combination of lingering La Niña effects and a transitional ENSO-neutral spring could mean dryness persists in critical growing regions through spring.

“Parts of the central U.S., especially the western Corn Belt and hard red winter wheat areas, are going to see below-normal precipitation during spring,” Lerner says. “The Delta and lower Midwest may do a little better, but overall, we’re looking at a spring that won’t dramatically relieve the dryness farmers have been dealing with.”

He points out analogs from past ENSO years support this outlook, but then the forecast flips to more moisture in summer for more northern states, with dryness parked in the South.

“Three of the four years I’ve analyzed moved from La Niña into neutral conditions through early summer, then transitioned to a weak El Niño later,” Lerner says. “We generally see a wetter bias in the northern Plains and parts of the Midwest in summer, while the Southeast may fall back into drier conditions after a brief spring break.”

“If we were to suddenly shift into El Niño, we’d see more rainfall in the Plains and western Corn Belt during spring,” he adds. “But given the history of these forecast models, it’s unlikely we’ll see a dramatic shift until later this year.”

___________________________________________________________________________________________________
Summer Outlook: A Mixed Picture

Looking ahead, both Lerner and Walz see the potential for wetter conditions later in the growing season:

Northern Plains and parts of the Midwest could see above-average precipitation in summer
Southeastern U.S. could experience drier conditions after a brief spring respite
The western Corn Belt and hard red winter wheat regions will likely remain dry through spring

___________________________________________________________________________________________________

Impacts on South America’s Weather

Walz says these ENSO shifts have global implications, particularly for South America.

“There’s a lag in how La Niña affects South America, because their growing season is opposite ours,” he says. “Currently, we’re still seeing dryness across Argentina and Southeast Brazil, but as La Niña weakens, we may start getting rains back into Brazil, especially by the back half of February.”

But up until this point, Lerner says La Niña isn’t having much of an impact on South America’s weather, which he says is a byproduct of the very weak status of the current La Niña event.

“And if you look at the soil assessment there in Brazil and Argentina, you can see the moisture profile is really not too bad,” Lerner says. “Now we are starting to dry out portions of Buenos Aires and some of the neighboring areas there in Entre Rios and southern Santa Fe, even southern Cordova, and we do to see some significant moisture in these areas.”

Subsoil moisture maps in South America show a couple areas of dryness, but Brazil looks to have adequate moisture for now.

(World Weather )

He points out just last week some of the computer forecast models were trying to generate a La Niña-like ridge of high pressure over Argentina through these next 10 days.

“And if that happens, we will continue to dry down Argentina, but more so in the east rather than the south, and it will go ahead and spread a little bit into southern Brazil,” Lerner says. “But, as far as La Niña events is concerned, this one has not brought much dryness to South America, and most of the South America crops, up until now, have been doing very well.”

He says if La Niña does dissipate in February, then it’s going to probably start raining again in these drier biased areas.

“I think that this short-term bout of ridge development and drier bias conditions in Argentina, Brazil, will not likely last long enough to have a big impact on the bottom line,” he adds.

What U.S. Farmers Need to Know Going Forward

Spring 2026 could bring a mix of dryness, volatility and early-season severe weather in key U.S. crop areas. Irrigation management and soil moisture monitoring will be critical. Farmers should also keep an eye on South American conditions, which influence global markets, especially for soybeans and corn.

“Farmers shouldn’t rely on a sudden shift to El Niño to solve moisture deficits,” Lerner emphasizes. “Prepare for continued dry spells in spring, and be ready to take advantage of wetter periods later in the year if they arrive.”

Walz adds: “This spring will be ENSO-neutral, a transitional period, but summer could bring a true El Niño — something that isn’t common but could have significant implications for rainfall patterns and planting decisions.”

2026 Weather Outlook: La Niña’s Quick Exit, El Niño’s Potential and the Signals Farmers Should Watch

Thu, 08 Jan 2026 14:37:04 GMT

After a year that challenged nearly every long-range forecast, weather uncertainty remains a dominant theme heading into 2026. Shifting climate signals with La Niña looking to make a quick exit, evolving ocean temperatures and global production concerns are once again forcing producers and markets to stay flexible.

Eric Snodgrass, senior science fellow and atmospheric scientist with Nutrien Ag Solutions, says the lessons of 2025 serve as a reminder even confident outlooks can unravel quickly, and that adaptability is critical as weather patterns reset. But overall, he thinks 2026 could bring favorable weather, especially for crop production.

2025: A Year Forecasts Missed

Coming into 2025, a growing body of forecasts pointed toward drought risk across the western and central Corn Belt. Those concerns were based on long-term dryness signals that had appeared consistently for nearly a decade. But as spring unfolded, the atmosphere took a sharp turn.

“2025 didn’t shape up like any forecast thought it would,” Snodgrass says. “Instead of the widespread drought everyone was worried about, we ended up with flooding, excess moisture and major disease pressure.”

Heavy rains in April and May triggered widespread flooding across the Mid-South, Delta and southern Plains, replenishing soil moisture and wiping out early drought fears. While summer brought hot overnight temperatures, frequent storms in June, July and early August kept crops supplied with moisture — but created ideal conditions for disease.

“If you were in the Corn Belt, you were fighting southern rust and tar spot,” Snodgrass says. “If you hit twice with fungicide, yields were there. If not, disease pressure took a real toll.”

Warm overnight temperatures combined with frequent rainfall created ideal conditions for crop disease across much of the Corn Belt. Southern rust and tar spot became widespread issues, reinforcing how excess moisture can be just as damaging as dryness when timing and intensity aren’t favorable.

Despite those challenges, U.S. production came in strong overall, shifting attention to the global balance sheet and, in particular, South America.

South America Avoids Major Stress... For Now

With the U.S. crop largely established, concerns turned south as traders and analysts monitored planting progress and moisture conditions in Brazil and Argentina. Early delays raised questions, but recent rainfall across key growing regions helped stabilize crop conditions.

He says vegetation health indicators, including NDVI data, show little evidence of widespread stress heading into early 2026. While La Niña is typically associated with dryness risk in parts of South America, its influence so far has been muted — and that has kept weather-driven market anxiety in check.

The bigger question now isn’t how La Niña has behaved so far, but how long it will remain in place.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issued a report earlier this month that says La Niña is present and is “favored to continue for the next month or two.”

CPC says it’s important to note:

El Niño: characterized by a positive ONI (the rolling three-month average temperature anomaly) greater than or equal to +0.5ºC.
La Niña: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC.

To be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, CPC says it’s those thresholds that must be exceeded for a period of at least five consecutive overlapping three-month seasons.

The Growing Likelihood of El Niño in 2026

The move to possible ENSO neutral conditions.

(CPC )

Snodgrass says as La Niña is in place to start 2026, it’s a pattern that typically brings cooler, wetter conditions to the northern U.S. and warmer, drier weather to the South. However, he adds the event may not last.

“I was wrong earlier when I thought 2026 might mirror 2025,” he admits. “That dialogue is gone.”

Most major forecasting centers, particularly European models, suggest La Niña could exit quickly in January or February. By spring, there’s roughly a 50% chance El Niño conditions could emerge — a major departure from last year’s pattern.

“That fast exit changes everything,” Snodgrass says.

CPC agrees. In a statement released Thursday, January 8 , CPC says there are now growing chances of an El Niño this year.

“La Niña may still have some lingering influence through the early Northern Hemisphere spring 2026. For longer forecast horizons, there are growing chances of El Niño, though there remains uncertainty given the lower accuracy of model forecasts through the spring,” says the CPC. “In summary, La Niña persists, followed by a 75% chance of a transition to ENSO-neutral during January-March 2026. ENSO-neutral is likely through at least Northern Hemisphere late spring 2026.”

The IRI multi-model predictions indicate ENSO-neutral will emerge during January-March (JFM) 2026.

(CPC )

What a Faster Transition Could Mean for Spring

If La Niña fades quickly, spring could offer more favorable planting opportunities across key production regions. Drier periods and fewer prolonged storm systems would be favorable for spring planting.

“Two of the analogs I’m watching closely are 2009 and 2018,” Snodgrass says. “Those were pretty good crop years across much of the Midwest.”

Still, Snodgrass cautions confidence will increase only as March and April weather patterns become clearer. Until then, flexibility remains essential. He says at this stage, however, the pattern looks supportive rather than threatening.

“Right now, I like what I see,” Snodgrass says.

The Most Important Signals to Watch in 2026

While ocean temperatures remain important, particularly in the Gulf of Alaska, Snodgrass says one indicator stands above the rest as spring approaches.

“Watch where the severe weather sets up,” he says.

If spring storms focus across the Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio River valleys, including the Delta and surrounding states, then Snodgrass explains that typically reduces the risk of summer drought. But if severe weather stays concentrated farther west, like in western Kansas, Colorado or western Nebraska, that’s when concerns begin to rise.

“If the storm chasers are far away from the Mississippi River, my ears perk up,” Snodgrass says. “If they’re chasing storms all through that valley, I feel much better about moisture and drought risk.”

Global Weather Still Shapes the Market

Even with improving signals at home, global production remains a major market driver. As U.S. farmers prepare for planting, attention will also remain on South America’s safrinha corn crop.

“Does that crop go in on time? Does it have moisture stress late?” he asks. “Those questions still matter, and they can tug on markets while we’re focused on planting here.”

Late-season moisture stress or planting delays there could tighten global supplies and inject volatility into prices. That makes spring a uniquely complex period, one where weather developments across multiple continents can influence market direction simultaneously.

What Farmers Need to Keep in Mind

After a year defined by surprises, 2026 is shaping up with a different set of risks — and opportunities. A faster La Niña exit, improving spring conditions and historically favorable analogs provide cautious optimism, but weather remains an ever-moving target.

“These are early signals, not guarantees,” he says. “But knowing what to watch, and when, makes all the difference.”

For producers and markets alike, the key will be watching the right signals at the right time.

La Niña Versus El Niño: Why the Difference Matters

La Niña and El Niño are opposite phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and each carries distinct implications for U.S. and global agriculture.

La Niña Typically Brings:

Cooler, wetter conditions across the northern U.S.
Warmer, drier weather across the southern Plains and Southeast
Increased drought risk in the Delta and parts of South America
Greater risk of spring temperature extremes and uneven rainfall

El Niño Typically Brings:

Wetter conditions across the southern U.S.
Milder winter temperatures in much of the Midwest
Reduced drought risk in key U.S. production regions
Higher rainfall potential in South America during critical growth stages

A fast shift from La Niña to El Niño can dramatically alter planting windows, early-season moisture availability and disease risk. For markets, these transitions often drive volatility as traders reassess yield potential and global supply outlooks.

Understanding when the transition occurs can be just as important as which phase dominates.

Meteorologists Say to Prepare For An Active December

Wed, 26 Nov 2025 19:03:07 GMT

For those in the Midwest, a low pressure system arrived Tuesday night bringing strong winds — a wide area of wind advisories — and for some winter precipitation.

“Wisconsin is having an amazing snow event today,” says Eric Snodgrass, meteorologist for Nutrien, in his latest YouTube update. “There’s a blizzard warning in northern Wisconsin.”

Are there more rounds of snow coming and will it be widespread?
While Snodgrass says for most, Thanksgiving Day itself will be quiet-weather-wise, the day after brings increased interest for travel-effecting weather, especially for those east of the Rocky Mountains.

“There will be 10°F to 20°F temp drops through the northern Plains to the Gulf coast,” Snodgrass says. “Snow is more probably because of the cold temperatures — the transition line between rain and snow on Saturday night — we don’t know. It’s going to be a fine line.”

He points to parts of Missouri, Illinois, most of Iowa, Minnesota and all of Wisconsin and Michigan to see some snow. With Wisconsin and Michigan seeing models indicating snow totals from 1’ to 2’. There will be better precipitation chances for the southeast in the form of rain.

The precipitation event forecast comes with greater confidence heading into the holiday weekend.

“I was happy to see the models align this morning,” Snodgrass says.

Eric Snodgrass highlights the latest ECMWF Ensemble forecast for getting at least 3" and 6" of snow through Thanksgiving weekend.

(AgWx.com)

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey notes some will see extreme cold for the first time this winter.

“Look for our first outbreak of sub-zero temperatures of the 25/26 winter season,” Rippey says. “And by Monday morning, December 1, those sub-zero temperatures will encompass large parts of the northern Plains and upper Midwest.”

And then early next week, there’s another system moving from the Mississippi delta through the southeast to bring additional rainfall totals.

Some areas that will remain dry through early December include the Canadian prairies, California and the southwest.

The First of Many
“It’s the post-Thanksgiving period that I’m most concerned about. We will be looking at a series of storms moving out of the northwest and eventually reaching the nation’s midsection,” Rippey says. “If you’re going to wait a little bit for heading home after the holiday, do look for some potential for very disruptive weather late Sunday into Monday, eventually reaching airports like Denver and spreading toward Chicago as we head into the first day of December.”

Rippey adds as we head into the winter months it’s reasonable to expect it to be colder and much more stormy across a vast swath of the country.

Widespread Warmth, Lingering Drought Dominate Early November Outlook

Wed, 05 Nov 2025 16:07:22 GMT

It’s been an unusually warm start to November, a trend that’s gripping the West and preventing moisture from reaching areas that need it. But that trend could shift later in the month, at least in terms of temperatures.

Several parts of the U.S. experienced their warmest November days on record in 2025, including Denver, Colo., and Tucson, Ariz. Other locations like Goodland, Kan., Sidney, Neb., and La Junta, Colo., also set daily record highs. But just how high are we talking?

Denver : Broke its all-time record November high, reaching 83°F and significantly exceeding the previous record of 78°F
Tucson : Set a record for the hottest day of the year on Saturday with 88°F, then broke its own record the next day with 92°F
Cheyenne : Recorded its latest-ever 70°F
San Jose : Reached 80°F

Meteorologist Brian Bledsoe, of Brian Bledsoe Weather, says through the first half of November, he expects above-normal temperatures across the western two-thirds of the country, with the Southeast seeing slightly cooler conditions.

“The western two-thirds of the country are just going to be a blowtorch,” he says.

Not Good News for Chances of Rain

It’s not just the warmth, but also the lack of moisture in the forecast. Bledsoe says rain chances will stay limited for most regions, especially the Mid-Mississippi Valley and the Gulf Coast, where below-normal precipitation is likely. The Pacific Northwest and parts of the Northern Rockies are the exceptions, potentially seeing wetter-than-average conditions.

“We’re continuing to build on some of these dry areas that have expanded across much of the country,” Bledsoe says. “If you look at the current drought monitor, there’s still a good bit of the country suffering from drought.”

The most recent look at the U.S. Drought Monitor paints a troubling picture heading into winter.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

He notes that drought persists in the Southwest, where the monsoon season failed to deliver consistent rainfall. Washington, Idaho, and northwest Montana are also struggling with dryness, while parts of the Corn Belt — and even sections of the Northeast — remain abnormally dry.

“Absolutely, we have areas we need to work on,” he says. “But the current pattern just isn’t conducive to big storms bringing widespread moisture.”

Ridge Holds Firm Across the West

Bledsoe explains a strong ridge of high pressure anchored over the interior West — covering Utah, Colorado, Arizona, and New Mexico — is pushing most storm systems northward.

A look at how the warmth will shift in November.

(Brian Bledsoe )

“That ridge is basically diverting the storm track,” he says. “Meanwhile, farther east — across the eastern Great Lakes and into the far eastern Corn Belt — we’ll be under the influence of a trough of low pressure. That brings a few chances for colder air and maybe some brief moisture, but it’s not a setup for big storms.”

Pattern Shift Possible Later in November

There is some hope for change as the month progresses. Long-range European models show the upper-level ridge beginning to weaken, opening the door for a more active storm track.

“As that ridge gradually breaks down, we’ll start to see less of the drier-than-average pattern,” Bledsoe says. “Areas farther north will likely see moisture first, and then hopefully that extends farther south into the Plains.”

Precipitation outlook for the first half of November.

(Brian Bledsoe )

Snow in the Forecast?

While the heat was the headline to start November, and continues to be the case in the western U.S., there will be a blip of not just cooler air, but much colder air that could bring snow to the central and eastern parts of the country. But it won’t last long.

AccuWeather says you’ll need to brace for a big change this weekend and early next week in the central and eastern United States . AccuWeather meteorologists warn the weather pattern indicates a surge of cold air and at least one storm capable of producing a band of accumulating snow across parts of the Midwest, followed by lake-effect snow and perhaps a bit of snow in portions of the Appalachians to the south.

AccuWeather says cold air will fail to gain a lasting foothold for the remainder of this week, with significant temperature swings from one day to the next in the Midwest and Northeast.

(AccuWeather)

AccuWeather is calling it “Christmastime cold” that’s on the way.
Their meteorologists say a large push of cold air arrives this weekend, which will cause conditions to drastically change.

A significant dip in the jet stream is forecast to begin this weekend for the Central and Eastern states.

“Temperatures will feel more like mid-December or even Christmastime in many places by next week,” AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok says.

A storm is forecast to track along the boundary of the advancing cold air from this weekend in the Midwest to early next week in the Northeast.

(AccuWeather )

But the cold air will fail to gain a lasting foothold for the remainder of this week, with significant temperature swings from one day to the next in the Midwest and Northeast, according to AccuWeather.

It may be temporary, but the colder air will bring chances of accumulating snow in areas of the Midwest and the Appalachians that are farther south and rather low in elevation, according to AccuWeather. The storm is forecast to track along the boundary of the advancing cold air from this weekend in the Midwest to early next week in the Northeast.

“As we see it now, the most likely time for snow showers in Chicago that can bring a small accumulation is late Saturday night to Sunday morning,” Pastelok says. “Around Detroit the most likely timing for accumulating snow showers is from Sunday morning to Sunday midday.”

While an excessive accumulation of snow is not anticipated on the roads, AccuWeather says the snow can fall at a heavy enough rate near the Interstate 94 and 80/90 corridor to make for slushy conditions in some areas.

Is It Time To Stop Planting Corn In April?

Tue, 28 Oct 2025 15:04:31 GMT

Planting corn later – as in May versus April – has resulted in higher yields for some central Illinois growers the past three years in a row. Each time, May-planted corn edged out the yields of the April plantings because of moisture availability. With that frustration top of mind, one Illinois corn grower asked Ken Ferrie this week whether it’s time to throw in the towel on planting corn in April.

“My advice for farmers here in central Illinois is if we have a green light in April, plant some corn,” says Ferrie, Farm Journal Field Agronomist, who’s based just south of Bloomington.

However, Ferrie says Illinois farmers shouldn’t be afraid to wait until May to get a green light from Mother Nature to start the planting process.
“We never know how the rest of the year will play out. So, breaking the planting window up is a good way to mitigate risk and take the jam out of the fall of having everything ready at the same time,” he explains.

What Happens At Pollination Time Is Huge
A case in point is one hybrid that Ferrie and team planted on April 28 and again on May 7 in a Farm Journal large-scale test plot this year.
The corn planted on April 28 ended up getting caught trying to pollinate during a three-and-a-half day stretch of foggy weather.

“It was only about 50% pollinated when the fog came in, and we sat four days without dropping pollen,” Ferrie recalls. “Once it dried up, we got pollinated, but we had half an ear on the bottom that was yellow and the top half was white. The top half aborted hard, as it always does.”

When doing yield estimates for the April 28 planting, Ferrie anticipated harvesting between 215 and 220 bushels per acre. Surprisingly, the hybrid delivered a 241-bushel-per-acre average.

He attributes the better than anticipated yield result to the hybrid being a D hybrid – one that increases yield late season by packing on starch during grain fill. Increasingly, Ferrie notes, seed companies are producing more D-type hybrids.

“I knew from our hand harvest plots that it could produce 57,000 kernels per bushel, but that’s still a lot of kernel fill, especially compared to how ugly the tip back looked,” he says.

What Ferrie didn’t anticipate is how much better that specific hybrid would perform yield-wise in a field planted on May 7 – just nine days after the April 28 planting.

“It had a 263-bushel per acre average. I was no longer happy with my 241 performance, once I found out the May 7 corn was 22 bushels better,” Ferrie laughs.

He attributes the difference in how that hybrid performed to the fog that impacted pollination negatively in the April 28 field.

“But it took field scouting to explain what went on in this plot. Without scouting, we’d have blamed the yield loss on the April planting date. This plot is a good example of why you don’t want all your eggs in one basket when it comes to pollination,” Ferrie says.

Soybeans Are A Different Story Altogether
Soybean yields in Illinois continue to show a strong positive correlation with earlier planting dates, Ferrie reports.

Early planting allows soybeans to take advantage of the long days leading up to the summer solstice by extending their vegetative growth and triggering earlier reproductive stages. This leads to more robust plants, increased pods and seeds per plant, and ultimately, higher yields – barring a hard frost, which is always a risk.

Data from 2025 Farm Journal test plots revealed that soybeans planted on April 14 achieved 101 bushels per acre, significantly outperforming those planted on May 13 (84 bushels) and May 29 (81 bushels).

Poor Fungicide Applications Play Havoc With Yield Results
Farmers have been sending Ferrie pictures of fungicide streaking in their corn crops where the fungicide was sprayed by air. In some cases, the fields were sprayed twice by air. That issue was caused by not keeping a tight spray pattern during the application process.

“Guys are seeing 20- to 40-bushel swings in these skips,” Ferrie says.

He encourages operators who see fungicide streaks to make notes of their location, because they will likely come up during yield map meetings this winter and potentially cause confusion.

“Fungicide streaks and pollination issues can create some wild swings from field to field, or even within a plot in the same field, that’ll leave you scratching your head this winter without some timely ground truthing from your field scouts,” Ferrie says.

La Niña Watch Is On — Here’s How It Could Shake Up Drought and Winter Weather

Fri, 17 Oct 2025 16:42:11 GMT

Farmers across the U.S. are gearing up for a potentially volatile winter as the National Weather Service has placed the country under a La Niña Watch. But what does that really mean for the months ahead? Eric Snodgrass, principal atmospheric scientist for Nutrien Ag Solutions , says this winter’s pattern could be one to watch closely.

Weather Highlights from Now Through December

Expect an early-peaking La Niña, with the strongest impacts likely around Christmas.
Look for cold, snowy conditions in the north and dryness in the south.
Watch for frequent Arctic intrusions and an active Ohio Valley storm track.
Recharging soil moisture before freeze-up is critical, especially in the Midwest.
Persistent Cotton Belt drought could influence next summer’s Corn Belt outlook.
South America faces a wetter north/drier south split, which could affect global crop markets.

What a La Niña Watch Means

The Climate Prediction Center says there’s a 71% chance of La Niña conditions developing from October through December. CPC also issued a La Niña Watch , which means conditions are favorable for the development of La Niña within the next six months.

“La Niña just means the trade winds are fast across the equator,” Snodgrass explains. “When that happens, it tends to give us a very loopy jet stream throughout winter.”

That looping pattern is something Snodgrass says influences everything from temperature swings to precipitation.

“When you think about La Niña winters, they all have different flavors,” he says. “We’ve had four La Niñas in the last five winters. This would be the sixth one in that time frame. And the big question we have is: Is it going to deliver typical La Niña conditions?”

Historically, La Niña brings colder and snowier conditions across the northern U.S. and drier conditions in the South.

“We typically find that we’re dry from the Southwest, the Sun Belt to the Cotton Belt,” Snodgrass says. “We tend to be snowier and colder to the north — across parts of the Pacific Northwest, Northern Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes. La Niña winters tend to be cold, tend to snow, but that’s not a guarantee — it’s a tendency.”

Early Peak, Quick Exit

This year’s La Niña is expected to be relatively short-lived.

“We think it’s going to peak early, probably right around Christmas, and probably quickly exit,” Snodgrass notes. “The big question I have is: What’s going to happen to the drought monitor between now and next April when we’re thinking about a La Niña winter?”

Moisture Deficits Are a Big Concern

Moisture is already top of mind for many growers. After an unexpectedly wet spring in some regions, conditions turned dry quickly, leaving soil moisture depleted.

“We need to get a lot of moisture before the ground freezes in parts of the Midwest,” he says. “If we can do that, we’ll lock that in and save it for spring.”

But getting there might involve a bumpy ride.

“There are a lot of indications right now that this winter could be fun,” Snodgrass says with a laugh. “When I say fun, that’s fun for me to forecast. That means most people don’t like those kinds of winters. They’re probably going to be pretty volatile — frequent but brief intrusions of really Arctic air.”

He says we recently saw a hint of that with the rain that hit the East Coast last week.

“That’ll set up an active storm track through the Ohio Valley most likely. We already saw our first nor’easter go up the East Coast just last weekend, and you look at all of that and you’re going, is this kind of the way things are going to shake down,” he adds.

If the pattern develops as expected, it could dramatically shrink drought coverage , which currently is covering 73% of the continental U.S.

“You add La Niña into the mix, and it could be a winter that takes the drought monitor from 73% maybe down to 43% or even below that,” he explains. “But the question will remain: Where did the drought stick around?”

Snodgrass is particularly concerned about lingering drought in the South.

“What I always worry about with La Niña winters is if Cotton Belt drought survives, especially in the Delta. And if it’s there by the time we get to spring, then I start to worry about Corn Belt drought the next summer,” he says. “So yes, this is going to be a critical winter for us.”

Analog Years Point to a Volatile Pattern

When asked about potential analog years, Snodgrass points to a recent and familiar one.

“The best analog is actually last year, 2024, which is kind of funny,” he says. “There are five different areas around the globe, and the ocean temperatures, plus the fall drought in the Mississippi basin, plus what’s going on in the Indian Ocean, plus what’s going on in South America — all of these things are like, hey, we just saw this. It was called last October, November.”

That year brought some memorable weather swings. Does that mean we should set ourselves up for a mild rest of fall and then a brutally cold January and February where it snows as far south as New Orleans? That’s what the U.S. experienced last winter, followed by a super wet spring.

“I hate to say it, but 2024 is kind of setting itself up to be an interesting analog to this year,” Snodgarass says. “But like I said, there’s no such thing as a perfect analog — we’ll have to sit and wait to see how it all unfolds.”

South America’s Split Forecast

La Niña’s impacts won’t be confined to the U.S.

“It tends to split South America from Brazil to Argentina,” Snodgrass explains. “Brazil tends to have a decent monsoon — tends to be wetter. They tend to love La Niña if you’re in the Cerrado. If you’re in southern Brazil, they start to get worried. They tend to see drier conditions. You get into Argentina, historically, it’s drier.”

Some areas have already received favorable early rains, while others are still waiting for the monsoon to ramp up. Not only have areas of Brazil seen good rains, but they’ve also been able to plant at a rapid pace.

“And others are going, wait a minute, we haven’t seen this monsoon get really going yet, and they’re waiting. I think it’s going to be a north versus south issue — wetter north, drier south,” Snodgrass says.

Drought Persists Despite Recent Rain, Forecast Points to Dry October

Tue, 30 Sep 2025 19:36:38 GMT

Rain finally fell across parts of the Midwest this past week, but for many farmers, it was a case of “too little, too late.” Much of the corn had already died down rather than matured fully before drying down, and soybeans had already finished.

Eric Snodgrass, Nutrien’s Principal Atmospheric Scientist, says the dry August and September is causing moisture problems in both the corn and soybean plants this year, with farmers running into issues with the crop drying down.

“Some people were trying to harvest because the beans finished and the corn didn’t dry down, it died down,” says Snodgrass. “So even when the rain finally showed up, for many farmers it wasn’t the help they needed at the right time.”

Latest look at the U.S. Drought Monitor

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

That drought is also showing up in harvest conditions, with many farmers reporting a lot of dust this year, making it hard to see.

Little dusty in the drought zone. #harvest25 pic.twitter.com/B75PXPolTa
— Noggle Farms (@Noggle_Farms) September 30, 2025

A dusty and dry harvest so far. #harvest25 pic.twitter.com/H9LmQKEzxA
— Kent (@kecasson) September 30, 2025

Blame the Dryness on the Bermuda High

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor showed slight improvement across portions of the Midwest, Southern Illinois and the Plains, but there was also drought expansion across much of the East.

What’s the driver? Snodgrass says the expanding drought, which started in August, can be blamed on the Bermuda high.

Changes in the U.S. drought picture shows scattered improvement over the past week, but deepening dryness and drought across much of the East and Southeast, as well as areas of Texas and the Northwest.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

“About a month, even 45 days ago, we watched the Bermuda high drift off to Africa, and that mostly shut down our open access to Gulf moisture for most of the Corn Belt,” Snodgrass says. “Now, the Western Corn Belt did get some rain, and earlier last week a storm system came in and dumped what was left of the moisture into some key areas. But even with that rain, it really didn’t put a big dent in the drought in the Mississippi, Ohio, Missouri basin. Drought continued to build into the Southeast as well.”

The Two-Week Outlook: Dry Harvest Conditions Ahead

Looking forward, Snodgrass said farmers can expect dry harvest conditions — but that comes with trade-offs.

“We’re going to blow open the harvest windows in the midsection of the country,” he explains. “It will get drier again, it’s going to stay very mild, which is great for combines rolling. But the downside is that the soil isn’t recharging with the moisture we need for fall fieldwork and the next growing season.”

Rainfall forecast over the next 14 days.

(Eric Snodgrass, Nutrien)

Still, not all regions will share that pattern. Looking ahead, a strong ridge pattern is expected to dominate North Central North America. That means much of the country’s midsection will see dry, mild conditions — favorable for an open harvest window but not for replenishing soil moisture.

West Coast: Rain systems are forecast.
Southeast: Rain will arrive, but from a tropical system with the potential to deliver extreme rainfall, possibly 8–12 inches in localized areas depending on what the tropical system does.

Global Weather Watch: Brazil in Focus

Snodgrass also pointed to Brazil, where recent rains have kick-started soybean planting. However, high pressure systems aren’t positioned to sustain rainfall over the next two weeks, raising concerns about early-season dryness that could hamper crop establishment.

“Brazil had a front come through this week that delivered rain, and that’s going to spark a lot of planting,” Snodgrass said. “But the problem is, the high pressure that feeds the moisture is not in the right spot, so for the next two weeks it’s going to be drier across much of Brazil. That could hamper planting. If they can build momentum, they’ll get a lot going just after these rains, but they’re going to need more to sustain it.”

Forecast for South America

(Eric Snodgrass, Nutrien)

Bottom Line

For now, U.S. farmers can expect drier harvest conditions through October, but with lingering drought across key growing regions and uncertainty in global weather patterns, soil moisture recharge may be delayed until later in the season.

“Weather’s going to take front stage for the next few weeks — North America, South America, everywhere,” Snodgrass said. “We’re in a critical stretch where timing, rainfall, and temperature patterns are going to have a big impact on harvest and planting alike.”

You can watch Snodgrass’ full forecast below.

Ferrie: Why Your Corn Crop Could Be Drying Slowly This Fall

Tue, 23 Sep 2025 21:16:53 GMT

While some Illinois corn growers are heading into harvest early, others are telling Ken Ferrie their corn is drying slowly in the field – they’re seeing moisture levels drop only one point per week.

The rule of thumb historically is that mature corn that dies after reaching black layer will dry in the field at a rate of 0.5% to 1.0% per day in September, and then 0.25% to 0.5% per day in October, according to Iowa State University Extension .

Generally, it takes about 30 GDDs to lower grain moisture each point from 30% down to 25%. Drying from 25% to 20% percent requires about 45 GDDs per point of moisture, according to Peter Thomison, Ohio State University retired Extension state specialist for corn production.

But many agronomic factors come into play that influence dry down, including genetics, delayed planting, nutrient use, weather conditions — especially temperature, humidity, and rainfall — and disease issues.

Reaching Black Layer Prematurely Plays A Role

One reason for a slow drydown process in some fields is a result of the crop dying prematurely.

Premature corn death occurred in parts of the Midwest crop and for multiple reasons. In dry and droughty areas of Illinois, farmers saw high heat kill their corn crop prior to black layer. Likewise, Ferrie says many Iowa and Minnesota growers had corn that died before black layer due to southern rust and other disease pressure – even where the crop had adequate water.

“Corn that dies before black layer from dry weather, high heat or disease pressure can dry down slower,” says Ferrie, Farm Journal Field Agronomist, in this week’s Boots In The Field podcast.

The damage caused by adverse weather or disease can cause the plants to reach physiological maturity (black layer) prematurely, leading to poor dry-down and higher grain moisture, according to Purdue University corn specialists in an online article.

“When it comes to corn that dies pre black layer, you are at the mercy of God’s corn dryer,” says Ferrie, who encourages farmers to keep checking corn moisture levels and stalk quality to determine when to start harvest.

He offers three additional recommendations:

1. Don’t forget to calibrate combine yield monitors. “We need good, calibrated maps for when we analyze this crop at your yield map meetings this winter,” Ferrie says. “What these maps will teach us is invaluable in helping us shape our plans going forward, especially for you guys that are on the high-res program.”

2. Stay on top of harvest losses. Dry crops will mean more header loss for both corn and beans. “The tip pullback we’re seeing in [central Illinois] corn means we’re going to have to work a little harder to get this stuff off the cob. So keep a close eye on your thrashing losses,” he says.

3. Be proactive with your soybean harvest. “If they’re testing but cutting tough, keep grinding them out at that higher moisture. Don’t let that get away from you,” Ferrie says. “If you can knock beans out of the pod and they’re testing, even though that combine’s groaning, keep going as these moistures drop.”

Ferrie gives an update on yields he’s seeing across Illinois in this week’s Boots In The Field podcast here:

West Central Illinois Farmer Says Corn Yields Are Down 20 to 30 Bu. Per Acre From Last Year

Wed, 17 Sep 2025 12:25:15 GMT

Perched on the edge of what’s considered to be abnormally dry to moderate drought, west central Illinois farmer Brent Johnson had high hopes for yields at the start of this year. A strong start with even emergence set the groundwork for a solid crop. Instead, as harvest rushes in, the reality of an extremely dry finish to summer is also setting in.

“The corn right now, the general consensus is it’s off 20 to 30 bushels [per acre] from last year and soybeans are off by about 8 to 15 [bu. per acre],” Johnson says.

Johnson started combining on September 3. Two weeks into harvest, he’s finding a good crop — but definitely not as good as last year.

“We didn’t have the finish that we did last year in corn or soybeans. Nothing is ideal, right? But with 98 million acres of corn, maybe we didn’t need that finish. But yields are off,” he says.

Latest look at the U.S. Drought Monitor shows abnormally dry to severe drought conditions across much of the growing region, including Illinois. It’s was a dramatic shift after such a wet start to the growing season.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

Some of Johnson’s fields haven’t seen rain in seven weeks. For other fields, it’s been as much as nine months since they’ve had measurable rainfall. And not only has it turned dry in their area of Illinois, but temperatures have soared over the past couple of weeks with temperatures above 90°F. In fact, where he farms just outside of Springfield, Ill., they recorded the hottest day of the year so far over the weekend.

“Oddly enough, as much heat as we’ve received, the corn is not drying as fast as I thought it would,” Johnson says. “We tried to harvest a field this morning that was planted end of April and it was still 30% moisture. So, we moved and we’re here now.”

Not Just Drought Eating Into Yields

Johnson says the dry weather definitely trimmed yield in their area, but there were other factors he thinks played a role as well.

“Between the dry weather, the extreme heat, the high nighttime temperatures — and then something we don’t often see — but the hazy days, the Canadian smoke, it impacted the crop. It just wasn’t a perfect year,” he says.

Kernel Weight is an Issue This Year

Johnson says the other surprise is kernel weights, and the fact it’s taking more kernels to make a bushel this year.

“That’s really where we see our highest yields year in, year out is when we have good, easy finishes to this corn crop in August and September, and we bring it to the finish line slowly. We expand those kernels. It’s kind of like going back to a buffet three, four or five times and finishing off that bowl of ice cream. They just swell, and that’s where we get our kernel weight. We don’t have that this year. We’re just racing to the finishing line,” Johnson says.

May Planted Corn May Be Hit the Hardest

The opposite happened this year. A quick finish is compromising kernel weight. And now what he’s concerned about is what the late-summer dryness could mean for his later-planted corn.

“I am a little concerned that maybe the May corn won’t be as good as it normally is because of the weather — similar to what we talked about with the later-maturity beans finishing later. So, it’s going be interesting,” Johnson says.

Johnson says for the past several years, his May planted corn has been his best yielding corn. But this year, he doubts that will hold true. He says some of his corn and soybean fields could still benefit from a rain, but it doesn’t look promising from the forecast.

Dry Weather Means Disease Pressure is Low

It may not be a perfect finish or a record crop, but one thing Johnson is thankful for is that they haven’t been overwhelmed by disease.

“Because we were so dry — we were much drier here than Iowa — we don’t have the Southern Rust pressure here that I’m seeing on social media and reading about that Iowa has,” he adds.

Soybean Yields Could Suffer

Johnson says even though yields are off, he’s actually impressed with how this corn crop finished this year in spite of the lack of rain and the heat. But with no rain in August, soybeans could be a different story.

“Beans are tricky so far because normally, we would be running pretty hard in. We use a fungicide, so we’re used to green stems and some green pods. But the beans are not maturing all at one time from what we’ve seen. So, the moisture in our sample of beans is relative to how many green beans and how many green pods are actually in the sample when they pull it at the elevator. We have yet to get a very good sample in beans, but again, we’ve only cut two fields. They were disappointing in yield. [We were] thinking that our late Group 2s would be some of our best, which gives me worry about some of the later stuff,” Johnson says.

Johnson says he if he had to describe this year’s crop, it would be “just ho-hum.”

A ho-hum crop, and one that had such a promising start here in west central Illinois, reveals record yields aren’t on tap in Illinois this year.

What caused the sudden shift to dry and hot weather? Watch the video below as Drew Lerner of World Weather looks at the drivers and how long it could last.

5 Critical Insights From The Southern Rust Rampage In Midwest Corn

Tue, 16 Sep 2025 18:34:36 GMT

Northeast Iowa farmer Elliott Henderson sprayed a fungicide on part of his corn crop three times this season and nearly all of his crop twice, battling to break the chokehold of southern rust in his fields.

Henderson, who farms in Buchanan County, wasn’t alone in his struggle to contain the disease. Iowa State University (ISU) Extension estimates southern rust reached all 99 counties in the state.

Most corn growers were aware of the disease but hadn’t experienced the ruthless destruction it could cause.

For many, that changed this season.

The farmers Henderson routinely connects with are finding extreme yield losses now, as they start combining a corn crop that in many cases dried down and died prematurely. What occurred is common to southern rust – the disease pustules ruptured corn leaf surfaces, making it hard for plants to retain or regulate moisture.

“I made some calls around to see what guys are getting, and yields are down. I mean, we’re talking 30 to 60 bushels,” says Henderson. “We’re seeing guys with a 240-bushel APH, and they’re talking 180-bushel corn.”

An update on this field. The kernels are many but extremely small. The cob is almost rubbery. One ear doesn’t tell the full story, but this field did not handle southern rust well. #ISUCrops https://t.co/QDDtBWHa0r pic.twitter.com/fiYUboKN1E
— Meaghan Anderson (@mjanders1) September 12, 2025

Yield losses of up to 45% can occur from southern rust in severe cases, according to the Crop Protection Network (CPN).

Along with the yield loss, Iowa test weights are also taking a hit and could result in lower prices for growers. The official minimum test weight in the U.S. for No. 1 yellow corn is 56 lbs. per bushel and for No. 2 yellow corn is 54 lbs. per bushel, according to Purdue University Extension.

Henderson says he’s hearing farmers share test weight numbers well below those.

“We’re seeing lows in the 40s, some upper 40s, so it’s definitely being affected,” he says.

A Perfect Storm Of Disease Pressure
Plant health issues were the biggest challenge many corn growers in the Midwest encountered this season, Randy Dowdy contends.

“It was not a pollination issue. It was not a kernel development issue. We didn’t see the tight tassel wrap. It was disease pressure — that was by far the limiting factor for growers this year,” says Dowdy.

When he participated in the Pro Farmer Crop Tour in mid-August, Dowdy says he saw corn crops from Ohio to Iowa that were affected by multiple diseases. The four main ones were southern rust, gray leaf spot, northern corn leaf blight and tar spot — sometimes all four were on the same leaf in Iowa.

“Those growers that sprayed and stayed on it and understood that a fungicide couldn’t last but for 21 days at best, and made multiple applications, I think they’re going to reap the benefits,” says Dowdy in this week’s Breaking Barriers With R&D podcast.

You can watch this episode of the podcast on YouTube: Breaking Barriers with R&D: Late-Season Wins and Soil-First Strategies

The Crop Protection Network map shows where southern rust was confirmed in counties across the U.S. as of September 16. Notice how far north the disease traveled in Minnesota, South Dakota and Wisconsin.

(CPN)

Both Dowdy and David Hula, business partners in Total Acre , lament that many Midwest growers didn’t take a cue from their southern brethren and spray fungicides multiple times this season.

“Industry, in general, says if you spray at VT or tassel time, you can get by with one time. That is mostly accurate under a normal weather year,” Hula says. “But this year [some Midwest states] just had that explosion of southern rust, so they were dealing with a disease that’s historically not been a problem. You just had the environment for it.”

With growers beginning to plan what to do next season, Dowdy and Hula spent some time this week considering how growers can build an effective agronomic management plan for 2026.

Here are five of their key takeaways:

1. Formalize a plan to address disease (and pests, too).

“You have to stay proactive with your scouting and be willing to go with earlier fungicide or multiple applications, depending on what shows up,” Hula says.

In the process of being prepared to make multiple applications, keep in mind that you might not need all of them. While tar spot overwinters in stubble, southern rust doesn’t. The latter might not be a severe problem next season, as it is blows in from warmer climes.

Dowdy believes the weather system bringing southern rust to the Midwest this season originated in the Delta.

2025 Colfax County Nebraska Crop Tour results: 12 dryland fields, 207.5 bu. 2nd highest yield on record (2021 was 214). Stands were slightly lower than expected. Tar Spot lighter than expected. Southern Rust probably will reduce this yield. #25croptour pic.twitter.com/72VZCFMdZQ
— Chris Clausen (@ChrisClausen34) September 11, 2025

“Let’s face it, the incubator for you was the fact that you were wet and then had high, nighttime temperatures. It was hot, and you had corn everywhere, and you had a perfect environment,” he says.

Henderson agrees, noting moisture at the wrong time and too much heat were factors.

“We had a lot of heat right after pollination into that blister stage. We were stacking GDUs up really fast on that early-planted corn,” he recalls. “I do think some of this later planted corn is probably going to have a better experience finishing out.”

2. Work with like-minded farmers, agronomists and industry experts.

Be aware of disease pressure that is around you or headed in your direction by tapping into a local agronomist or groups such as the Crop Protection Network, and stay abreast of what’s happening in other regions.

“Everybody here is on pins and needles about southern rust every season, and we are constantly getting feedback from county [Extension] agents and industry, who are pushing the information out to the farmer, because everybody is well aware of the ramifications of southern rust,” Dowdy says.

Henderson, who works with Dowdy and Hula via their Total Acre program, also has a network of farmers in Iowa that he connects with on a regular basis.

“It’s a network of dozens of us farmers that call each other, bounce ideas off each other,” he says. “The things we’re talking about are often time-sensitive. It can be a daily thing.”

3. Understand how to use fungicides for maximum ROI, if you have given them little consideration in the past.

“It’s all about coverage,” Dowdy says. “Drone applications can be fine, but no matter what you do, if a guy is spraying two to three gallons, and you compare it to a ground rig spraying 15 to 25 gallons, I mean, there’s just no comparison in that coverage.”

Another aspect of coverage, Hula adds, is making sure the fungicide gets into the plant canopy far enough to have the desired effect.

“Fungicides have a tendency to work from the leaf they’ve come in contact with and move up,” Hula says. “So, if you’re trying to protect at least that ear leaf – and I like to protect the leaf opposite and below the ear – you’ve got to get penetration with that product.”

For a drone application, Hula says growers might have to spend a couple extra dollars to get sufficient volume for the product to get down below the canopy.

“If that’s what needs to be done, let’s do it,” he encourages. “If I’m spending $30 or more an acre, then I want to at least have the success that I’m paying for.”

4. Use products labelled for the disease issue you face.

That sounds like a no brainer, but in the heat of battle the wrong product can get applied, or you can select a product that isn’t up to the task.

With a tough disease like southern rust or tar spot, using newer chemistries with more than one active ingredient is also a plus.

5. Stay with your crop throughout the season; don’t walk away.

Today’s corn genetics tend to have more back-end potential to add yield through kernel fill.

It’s a key reason to evaluate what a fungicide application can do for a crop that’s advanced into one of the later reproductive stages, say Hula and Dowdy.

Brian Herbek, who farms near DeWeese, Neb., has leaned into their advice the past few years.

“I found out a couple of years ago, there’s a lot of hidden yield out there that a lot of us leave on the table,” Herbek reports.

What he learned from Hula and Dowdy is corn has the genetic ability – some hybrids more so than others – to pack starch into its kernels late-season to create higher test weights.

He scouts corn late-season to decide where to make “the finishing pass,” an application of fungicide or nutrients or some combination of the two.

“It’s not for every field. I’ll tell everybody that right now, there are certain fields that don’t deserve that attention,” Herbek says. “But if you know what you’re looking for, and you have that potential, that application does makes sense, but you’ve really got to know what’s out in your field.”

Dowdy and Hula share additional thoughts on how farmers can improve next season’s corn crop in the face of disease pressure in the latest edition of their Breaking Barriers With R&D podcast on Farm Journal TV and YouTube .

More ideas and recommendations are available from the two corn yield champions on the Tuesday morning edition of AgriTalk with Host Chip Flory. Catch their discussion here:

Your next read: Farmer Finds A Silver Bullet For High Corn Yields

Focus On Stalk Quality To Maximize Harvest Results

Mon, 08 Sep 2025 18:37:21 GMT

As Caleb Hamer evaluated his corn last weekend, he says the crop looked like it flipped a switch and decided it was done growing for the season.

“Between the southern rust, some tar spot, and I think the heat, that’s all pushed stuff along. I think the corn shut down probably sooner than need be, which is slightly alarming,” says Hamer, who farms in northeast Iowa.

Severe foliar disease can weaken corn stalks.

Test stalks using the pinch test and prioritize harvest for that field if 10 percent or more stalk rot.

Ask local Extension for more info. @alisonrISU @DTelenko @MandyBish1 @maddishires @MartinChilvers1 @badgercropdoc @tjcksn… pic.twitter.com/qz24gae8aM
— Crop Protection Network (@CropNetwork) September 3, 2025

Farmers Adjust Corn Yield Expectations
Some combination of extreme disease pressure, moisture at the wrong times and too much heat are factors likely to pull some states’ corn yield averages down from USDA’s August 12 WASDE report, which made a record 188.8 bushels per acre average yield projection.

Hamer says he has already adjusted yield expectations for his corn crop.

“I kind of had us shooting for some sort of single digit percentage over last year, and last year was a really good crop in our area. Now I’m hoping we’ll be on par with last year, but I don’t think we’re going to beat it at this point,” Hamer told AgriTalk Host Chip Flory. “I think a lot of that’s related to how fast the crop matured in August, because you’d like it to be slow, not fast in August.”

1/ #Illinois crop progress and condition, for the week ending Sept. 7:

- #Corn condition: 53% good-to-excellent (down 2% from last week)
- Corn dented: 87% (up from 72%)
- Corn mature: 27% (up from 15%)
- Corn #harvested: 2%https://t.co/Sqv7OB25Ou pic.twitter.com/4wwFi9wIZF
— FarmPolicy (@FarmPolicy) September 9, 2025

The fast maturation underway means a lot of corn in the Midwest, especially in parts of Iowa and Illinois, had a more shallow kernel fill than desired which will result in lower yields, according to Ken Ferrie, Farm Journal Field Agronomist.

“I still expect an average crop in Illinois, but not the bin buster we thought was possible early on this season,” he says.

Bloomberg's #corn and #soybeans crop production survey for the September WASDE report on Friday, 9/12. Corn yield estimated at 186.0 bpa and soybeans at 53.2 bpa. Good luck!!! pic.twitter.com/jbVnlt4v62
— HTS Commodities (@HTSCommodities) September 8, 2025

Make A Harvest Plan For Each Field
Ferrie says some central Illinois fields were caught in wind events last week and corn went down, and fields were also plagued by foliar disease pressure in much of the state.

Iowa fields have also been hit hard by foliar disease, especially southern rust, according to Alison Robertson, Iowa State University Extension field crops pathologist. What she says commonly happens is when severe leaf disease impacts corn plants, they remove carbohydrates from the stalk and roots in order to fill kernels in the ears.

“That leads to stalk rots, which leads to poor standability,” Robertson explains “If you have a field that has shut down, you will need to get into that field and harvest early.”

The severity of southern rust across Iowa this summer has Robertson thinking corn yield losses could reach up to 30% in those fields where no fungicide was applied. She discussed the issue on Monday with Chip Flory, host of AgriTalk. Listen to their discussion here:

Ferrie offers advice similar to Robertson’s. “Put these fields high on your harvest list to get corn out before the plants go down anymore and ear molds set in. Spend a little money on dryer gas and keep the harvest loss as low as possible,” he says.

Kentucky farmer Ryan Bivens says he is trying to stay positive despite seeing much of his corn crop die prematurely from a combination of foliar disease and too much heat.

“We’re probably 25%, 30% off our yield expectations, so it’s really tough out here,” says Bivens, who farms south of Louisville. “I’ve said all along, if we can come out of this year with 150- to 160-bushel yield, which is substantially lower than our APH, I think we better be happy.”

We’ve been shelling corn for a few days. Yields are 20% off last year across the board. pic.twitter.com/tXRCw9vZpc
— Eric Schwenke (@erschwenke) September 8, 2025

As farmers evaluate and prioritize fields for harvest, Missy Bauer recommends three steps that can help you in the process:

1. Split stalks open to gauge stalk health.
“When you split stalks open this time of the year, we should still see some integrity down in these stalks,” says Bauer, Farm Journal Field Agronomist. “If the stalk is cannibalized, and has a Styrofoam appearance, there’s little to no integrity left in the stalks.”

2. Do the pinch test. Pinch the stalk at one of the lowest two internodes with your thumb and fingers. If the pressure causes the stalk to collapse, it fails the pinch test, and that field needs to be toward the top of your harvest calendar.

3. Try the push test.
Another way to evaluate stalk integrity is with the push test. “You grab the plant right about the height of the ear, and extend the stalk over toward the other row a full arm length,” says Bauer.

If the stalk snaps off, or stays leaning over, then you know you have a greater potential for down corn in that field. Again, move that field toward the top of your harvest list.

For your planning purposes, here’s a summary of harvest considerations from Pioneer:

When prioritizing fields for harvest:
· Estimate corn yield. The Pioneer Corn Yield Estimator or the Yield Estimator in the Granular Mobile app provides quick, in-field yield estimates

Manually estimating corn yield:
· Measure one one-thousandth of an acre
· Count harvestable ears
· Determine average kernels per row (avoid tip kernels)
· Count kernel rows per ear
· Calculate: Estimated yield (bu/ac) = (ears × kernel rows × kernels per row)/90 — Example: (32×16×28)/90 ≈ 159 bu/ac

Assess stalk strength:
· Scout 2–3 weeks before harvest and use the push test; harvest weaker fields first to reduce lodging risk
· Check ear molds and calibrate monitors
· Watch for mold issues, especially in corn-on-corn or high-population fields

Calibrate yield monitors and re-check periodically during harvest.

Identify disease, insect and weather stress:
· Flag stressed fields and move them up in the harvest sequence

Operational tips:
· Consider starting at 20–25% grain moisture to spread workload and reduce field and standability risk
· After harvest, review the season’s performance to inform next season’s hybrid selection

Your next read: Corn Market Resilience Continues

Frost Forecast Threatens Corn And Soybeans This Week

Wed, 03 Sep 2025 11:35:59 GMT

Frost isn’t a four-letter word, but it sure seems like one at this point in the growing season, when corn and soybeans are packing on starch and finalizing yield.

Brett Walts, meteorologist with BAMWX.com, predicts a potential frost for multiple days now for parts of the north-central U.S. and southern Canada. He says this is the earliest he has ever forecast freezing temperatures.

“Much of North Dakota is under that risk, and northern parts of Minnesota as well. For central Wisconsin I wouldn’t 100% roll out the risk in outlying and low-lying areas, even into parts of South Dakota and southern Minnesota,” Walts tells Chip Flory, host of AgriTalk.

We continued to be concern about frost risks in the N. Plains and Upper-Midwest later this week into the weekend.

Latest blend forecast for Thursday, Saturday and Sunday indicate multi-day risk and *typically* these trend cooler with time. pic.twitter.com/rarcKEGgCK
— BAM Weather (@bam_weather) September 2, 2025

A corn-killing freeze occurs when temperatures dip to 32 degrees Fahrenheit for four hours or 28 degrees for minutes, according to an online article by University of Minnesota Extension. A killing freeze can still happen with temperatures above 32, especially in low and unprotected areas when there’s no wind.

How much corn yield could be lost to freeze is tough to predict, but it could be significant, according to Troy Deutmeyer, Pioneer field agronomist.

“It is extremely difficult to predict but corn around half-milk line that dies will have yields cut around 10% according to older studies. With today’s late-season grain fill and kernel flex I feel the number is closer to 15%,” he says in a post to X. See his full comments below.

How much yield will premature death in my corn cut yield???

It is extremely difficult to predict but corn around half milk line that dies will have yields cut around 10% according to older studies. With today's late season grain fill and kernel flex I feel the number is closer… pic.twitter.com/U97lfOU6uy
— Pioneer Troy (@deutmeyer_troy) September 2, 2025

“Between the fourth [of September] and the eighth, it’s going to be pretty consistently down into the 30s and 40s for temperature lows in that region,” Walts says.

Timing-wise, Walts anticipates the frost threat is a multi-day risk, moving in by late tonight or early Thursday and staying through Sunday.

Corn Is Vulnerable In Cold, Wet Conditions

“We’d talked about how the corn crop needs some cooler temperatures, but these are not the kind of cooler temperatures we were talking about, that’s for sure – especially up in North Dakota, northern South Dakota, into central Minnesota,” Flory says.

Freeze damage in corn near Nicollet, Minn., that occurred Sept. 13, 2014. Notice how the corn leaves appear water-soaked.

(University of Minnesota Extension)

“There’s a lot of corn up there that could still benefit from a lot more growing season,” he adds “If we get into this prolonged period ofcold temperatures, even if we don’t see a frost, it can have a negative impact on the yield potential up there. No question about that.”

Walts says as the calendar moves past Sept. 10, temperatures will moderate for several days, but he doesn’t expect the warming trend to stay. Instead, he says it will be short-lived, with another cold front arriving in the same region around September 15.

Rain Could Add To The Frost Problem

Walts adds there is the likelihood that some of the areas under the frost watch could endure bouts of rain, though he anticipates they will be patchy.

“It’s going to be these messy, scattered showers and storms along these fronts,” he notes. “I would say areas that could pick up maybe more than a half an inch of rain will be across Minnesota, maybe northern parts of Iowa. But I think the further south and east you go across Illinois and Indiana, eastern Missouri, the messier that it is, and more likely some areas will be skipped over.”

Some of the skipped over regions include the far Northwest and West, both of which are likely to remain rain-free over the next week, Walts adds.

His complete forecast is available on AgriTalk here:

Your next read: Southern Rust Set To Take Big Bite Out Of Midwest Corn Crop?

Corn, Soybeans Thrive While Drought Hits Other Crops Harder

Mon, 25 Aug 2025 18:47:32 GMT

For a summer that many meteorologists predicted would be characterized by dryness over much of the Midwest, that scenario has not materialized for the most part in corn-soybean growing areas.

The U.S. Drought Monitor released August 21 reports only 5% of corn and 9% of soybean acres are experiencing some level of drought currently.

Just last week Pro Farmer released estimates from its annual Crop Tour for both crops, predicting 182.7 bu. per acre average for corn and a 53 bu. per acre projection for soybeans.

Furthermore, temperatures across much of the Midwest for the week ahead are expected to drop into a cooler-than-usual range for late August, according to the NOAA.

(NOAA)

But not all crops are in a garden spot this summer. Some are in double digit drought conditions. That includes 52% of barley, 22% of cotton, 49% of rice, 32% of sugarbeet and 31% of wheat acres.

Areas Where Dry Conditions Are Settling In
Meteorologist Jack Van Meter called out parts of the rice-growing region on Monday where dry conditions have increased in recent weeks.

“The big dis-improvement in the country, if you will, is down in the Mississippi River Valley,” he reported on AgDay TV. “We’re talking over by Arkansas, Tennessee and Mississippi. We can see moderate drought starting to spread throughout [that area].”

The No. 1 rice producting state, Arkansas, is enduring dry conditions. California, Missouri, Texas and Louisiana are other top rice producing states that are experiencing varying degrees of dryness or drought currently.

(U.S. Drought Monitor)

USDA data shows Arkansas ranks first among rice-producing states, accounting for more than 40 percent of the country’s rice production.

One of the concerns Van Meter says he is watching is what the lack of rainfall in those states will mean to water levels on the Mississippi River.

“If water levels drop, that will mean it’s harder for shipping to get through and start to transport goods out of the country and, actually, into the country for that matter, as well,” he adds.

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers reports it has been performing maintenance dredging throughout August to keep navigation channels open on the upper Mississippi. Navigation on the lower Mississippi continues to be affected by persistently low water levels, despite recent rainfall.

Rain In The Forecast This Week
Van Meter says a good slug of moisture will come in from the Rocky Mountains this week and across Oklahoma. That rain pattern will then move lower into the Southeast.

This week's precip forecast by @NOAA's @NWSWPC.

Large parts of the West finally see needed monsoon precip. The S. Plains into the Lower Miss River Basin are expected to see inches of rain. FL too.

Little to no rain for the Midwest (except MO) and Mid-Atlantic. #drought @NWS pic.twitter.com/2gt1vrEsjF
— NIDIS Drought.gov (@NOAADrought) August 25, 2025

“We’re going to be watching the Southeast for some impressive rainfall over by northern Florida and also by Georgia and South Carolina,” he says. “We could be seeing some impressive moisture moving in from the Gulf – obviously, something we’ll be keeping a rather close eye on.”

As the end of August plays out, Van Meter says it appears a dry pattern will set up for the Great Lakes area in the Midwest, just as the country heads into Labor Day weekend and the final, unofficial weekend of summer.

Parts of the western U.S., where farmers are dealing with severe (D2) and extreme (D3) drought this summer, are expected to see rain by the end of the week.

“We are going to be seeing some abnormally wet conditions, or at least wetter than normal conditions to end the month, out there in Oklahoma. That is actually going to continue through much of the Rocky Mountains and head over to the West Coast,” he says.

Your next read: How Pro Farmer 2025 Crop Estimates Compare and Contrast With USDA Expectations

How Pro Farmer 2025 Crop Estimates Compare and Contrast With USDA Expectations

Fri, 22 Aug 2025 20:35:41 GMT

As more than 100 crop scouts traversed dirt roads and two-lane highways, stopping dozens of times to sample corn and soybeans in seven Midwest states, they gathered insights to answer the question on many farmers’ minds this week: How would the Pro Farmer estimates compare to the numbers USDA-NASS released August 12?

The answer: Pro Farmer found a big corn crop but one that’s currently positioned to average 182.7 bu. per acre – 6.1 bu. below USDA’s 188.8 bu. projection.

“When we put the yield estimate out, it comes with a plus or minus 1% for corn and a plus or minus 2% for soybeans, and that’s because we know things can change yet,” says Chip Flory, host of AgriTalk and lead scout on the western leg of the tour.

“The other thing is the yield models that we use give us a range, and then, based on conditions, we can move within that range with the yield estimate that we’re going to pull,” he adds.

With that perspective in play, here’s how the Pro Farmer and USDA estimates compare:

Pro Farmer Corn Estimate (+-1%): 16.042 to 16.366 billion bushels; 180.9 to 184.5 bu. per acre average
USDA Corn Estimate: 16.7 billion bushels; 188.8 bu. per acre average

(ProFarmer)

Disease Pressure Across The Midwest Is Concerning
The 2025 growing season has been marred by heavy disease pressure in many of the corn and soybean crops Pro Farmer scouts evaluated this week.

It was an issue Lane Akre says showed up repeatedly in corn and soybean fields from the get-go, as tour scouts fanned out to check 2,000-plus fields across seven states: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio and South Dakota.

“We know disease can speed up the maturation of plants, making it difficult to keep them healthy long enough for optimal grain fill before harvest,” says Akre, Pro Farmer Economist and lead scout on the eastern leg of the tour. “We are concerned diseases like southern rust and tar spot could negatively impact corn yields in some of these states during the next few weeks.”

Soybeans Could Be the Star of the Season
USDA’s August estimate for the national soybean yield average is just slightly above what Pro Farmer scouts found in fields this week. Pro Farmer places the soybean yield average at 53.0 bu. per acre, with a total crop size of 4.246 billion bushels

By comparison, USDA expects soybeans to average a record high 53.6 bu. per acre, with a total crop of 4.29 billion bushels.

Pro Farmer Soybean Estimate (+-2%): 4.161 to 4.330 billion bushels; 51.9 to 54.1 bu. per acre

“One of the questions heading into the tour was whether the soybean crop could live up to the lofty expectations a lot of people have for it, and we found that it does,” Akre says. “There’s a massive crop out there in fields. We’re just hoping it can hold on until harvest – and outpace the disease pressure out there – to deliver on those big yields.”

Corn and Soybean Yield Summaries
Pro Farmer and AgWeb reported extensively throughout the tour — the highs and lows of each crop in each of the seven states. Here are summaries from each state. Click on the links to learn more details.

Illinois: Scouts reported an Illinois corn crop that looked lush from the road, but once they picked ears and pulled back husks, most described finding an average to above-average crop – not the record yield estimate USDA reported on August 12.

“The Illinois corn crop just wasn’t what we’d hoped,” Akre says. “USDA is anticipating a 1.7% jump from a year ago, and we’re actually down 2.2%.”

Indiana: Wet conditions from rain, fog and heavy due is causing some unevenness in Indiana corn and soybeans. Still, the state’s corn crop posted a yield number that came in 3.35% higher than its 2024 number.

From disease pressure to too much rain, some scouts found a solid soybean crop in Indiana, while other routes exposed extreme variability. Overall pod count numbers were down 2.30% from 2024.

Iowa: Scouts spent two days in the state gathering dozens of samples to gain insights and project yield estimates. Despite challenges from disease pressure, scouts reported a big corn crop with significant potential. Their estimates put the Iowa crop up 2.93% over 2024, and up 6.4% versus the three-year average.

“This Iowa crop has a very, very strong ear count, great grain inches — just a very consistent equation putting that corn yield together,” reports Emily Flory Carolan, Pro Farmer Crop Tour data consultant.

For soybeans, scouts found a massive crop, up 5.49% in the number of pods as compared to the 2024 crop.

Minnesota: The corn crop in Minnesota is currently heading for a record yield this season, if it can outpace disease pressure. Scouts recorded the longest grain inches in the corn there that have ever been measured in the tour’s history.

“That’s definitely what pulled up that yield average for us,” Carolan says.

Soybeans also show tremendous yield potential in Minnesota. Pod counts were up 20.38% this week versus 2024 counts, and up 19.9% versus the three-year average.

Nebraska: Adequate moisture is pulling up corn yields in the state this season, with some tour routes reporting 8% to 10% increases compared to 2024 and 2023. The much-improved corn yield estimates were a welcomed change, scouts say, after seeing corn there struggle in two back-to-back years of drought.

Soybeans also are promising big yield results, with pod counts up 15.0% this week over the 2024 estimate.

Ohio: Heavy rains last spring meant many farmers either got a late start to the growing season or they had to replant fields. The moisture extremes early on have resulted in considerable variability in fields from one end of the state to the other. Still, scouts say the Ohio crop has solid corn yield potential overall, citing possible records along some Pro Farmer Crop Tour routes.

The soybean pod factory in Ohio is going strong – with numbers up 4.66% this season over 2024 – but scouts caution a lack of late-season moisture is concerning. More rain is needed for the soybean crop there to finish well.

South Dakota: Based on USDA’s August crop estimates, scouts knew the possibility was there to uncover a big crop in South Dakota. Field estimates show record yield potential is possible , especially due to ample moisture this year that’s supported growth and development.

Soybeans might be an even better story in South Dakota this year. Pod counts came in at 15.9% above last year’s tour and well above the three-year average of 970.1 pods.

For more insights from the 2025 Pro Farmer Crop Tour:

Watch On-Demand: Pro Farmer Crop Tour Day 4 Results from Iowa and Minnesota

Watch On-Demand: Pro Farmer Crop Tour Day 3 Results from Illinois and Iowa

Watch On-Demand: Pro Farmer Crop Tour Day 2 Results from Indiana and Nebraska

Watch On-Demand: Pro Farmer Crop Tour Day 1 Results from Ohio and South Dakota

Crops vs. Foliar Diseases: A High-Stakes Race Underway in Midwest Fields

Fri, 22 Aug 2025 02:17:44 GMT

Two words sum up the concerns Pro Farmer Crop Tour scouts expressed about the corn and soybean crops they evaluated on Thursday in Minnesota and northeast Iowa: disease pressure.

Corn crops infected by southern rust and tar spot were a common sight in fields across both states during the fourth and final day of the tour.

“We saw disease in all of the fields we sampled today, though one of them really wasn’t too bad,” says Lane Akre, host of the eastern leg of the tour. “We saw a lot of early stages of tar spot, and we saw a lot of southern rust throughout.”

So it was no small surprise to the crowd attending Thursday night’s live broadcast when the final tally showed Pro Farmer’s corn estimate for Minnesota actually surpasses USDA’s 202-bu.-per-acre yield projection made August 12.

Pro Farmer estimates the Minnesota corn crop will average 202.86 bushels; that’s up 23.02% versus 2024 and up 13.41% versus the three-year average, according to Emily Flory Carolan, Pro Farmer Crop Tour data consultant.

“This crop is huge; it absolutely is,” Carolan says. “Minnesota is the only state on tour where we have recorded over a 200-bu. average this year. It is a record-year yield for the state.”

She adds that scouts recorded the longest grain inches in the crop that have ever been measured on the tour. “That’s definitely what pulled up that yield average for us,” she says.

Minnesota soybeans show similar yield promise, with final numbers pegged at 1247.86 pods in a 3' x 3' area. That’s up 20.38% versus last year, and up 19.9% versus the three-year average, Carolan reports.

(ProFarmer)

A Much Better Growing Season, So Far
The findings in Minnesota were a pleasant change from what scouts found in 2024, when weather seemed to jog between two extremes – drought and flooding – for much of the season.

Jaden Serbus, Pro Farmer tour scout and farmer based near Renville, Minn., says he was relieved to see Mother Nature had course corrected.

“Last year, the corn crop was only as high as my head, all yellow and stunted with very, very poor yields with all the rain,” Serbus recalls. “This year, many areas are like a garden spot.”

Minnesota District 8 & 9 (10 stops)
Nicolett, Le Sueur, Waseca, Steele, Dodge, Olmsted counties
🌱 Avg Pods in a 3X3 - 1262.80
🌽Avg Yield- 208.35#pftour25 @Feckersbrad73 pic.twitter.com/IklmOxDOTA
— McKenzie Feckers (@MFeckers) August 21, 2025

Northeast Iowa Crops Look Good, But…
As Akre and his team of scouts moved into northeast Iowa on Thursday morning, early yield estimates had Akre concerned results there could bring the state’s overall averages down.

“We saw a lot of drowned-out parts of fields, and that’s limited some of the ear size and counts as populations are down due to skips,” he says.

Despite some agronomic challenges, scouts recorded strong numbers that put the Iowa corn crop at 198.43 bu.-per-acre yield average for 2025. That’s up 2.93% versus last year, and up 6.4% versus the three-year average.

“This Iowa crop has a very, very strong ear count, great grain inches — just a very consistent equation putting that corn yield together,” Carolan reports.

Iowa soybeans are also looking to break yield records. The 2025 crop delivered a 1384.38 pod estimate average in a 3' x 3' area on Thursday; that’s up 5.49% versus last year and up 12.94% versus the three-year average.

(ProFarmer)

Linn Co. Iowa. Lots of tar spot and rust. 46 avg ear count, pretty light, but made some big ears. Yield est 208.53 but still a long way to go grain fill wise#pftour25 pic.twitter.com/efDDM6sbBG
— Lane (@iwatchcorn) August 21, 2025

“For the most part, the Iowa beans are pretty lush and the pod counts have been there, the soil moisture is up, so the potential is pretty high on beans...I think that’s been the real story the last couple of days — how many pods are out there,” Akre says.

But foliar diseases rearing up in Iowa fields have the potential to put the kibosh on record yields between now and harvest, reports Chip Flory, host of AgriTalk and lead scout on the western leg of the tour.

That concern is one reason he reminded crop tour listeners on Thursday that Pro Farmer’s current yield estimates could change before combines roll.

“When we put the corn yield estimate out, it comes with a plus or minus 1%. The soybean crop estimate comes with a plus or minus 2%, and that’s because things can change. We all know that,” Flory says.

“The other thing is the yield models that we use give us a range, and then, based on conditions, we can move within that range with the yield estimate that we’re going to pull,” he adds, noting that he wonders whether the soil moisture currently available will offset some of the discount scouts put on the crops because of the disease pressure that’s present.

At the end of the day, August 21, no one knows how the final corn and soybean yields will net out. As Flory notes, while there’s optimism about better yields coming in this harvest versus a year ago, the outcomes depend on how well the crops cross the finish line.

Watch On-Demand: Pro Farmer Crop Tour Day 3 Results from Illinois and Iowa

Watch On-Demand: Pro Farmer Crop Tour Day 2 Results from Indiana and Nebraska

Watch On-Demand: Pro Farmer Crop Tour Day 1 Results from Ohio and South Dakota

Iowa Corn Has High Potential, Illinois Crop Looks Average and Soybeans Shine in Both States

Wed, 20 Aug 2025 23:58:45 GMT

Bright orange is a great color for pumpkins but not so much for corn. Nonetheless, that was the prevailing color Brent Judisch reports seeing as he evaluated crops Wednesday morning in northwest Iowa’s Harrison County.

“Our first six or seven samples were terrible with southern rust,” says Judisch, a Pro Farmer Crop Tour scout and Iowa farmer. “We saw three fields in a row that were actually gross. I walked out of them just covered with it. After that, while we’ve seen it all day, it’s been more in the lower leaves and not nearly as drastic.”

Chip Flory, lead scout for the western leg of the tour, says the northwest Iowa crop is the best and worst he’s ever seen.

“In the snapshot that we took of it, and the measurables we saw in the field today, it is the best corn crop,” Flory reported during the tour’s nightly live broadcast.

But the disease pressure in the Iowa crop has Flory spooked.

“Disease pressure is putting a lot of bushels — a huge number of bushels — at risk,” he adds. “You can take 20, 30 bushels off of corn yield with what southern rust can do to the crop, even at this late stage in the game. It’s a dangerous crop that we’re looking at out here right now.”

Chip Flory says he was surprised to see corn that was well into R5 (dent) in northwest Iowa. “I can’t tell if it was this mature because of pressure from the southern rust, or if it was because of higher nighttime temperatures at pollination,” he reports. “I am concerned about how much disease is out here, and what it’s going to look like in another week or two.”

(Chip Flory, Host of AgriTalk)

Can The Iowa Corn Crop Still Hit A Record?
The Iowa corn results were a big shocker on Wednesday, given the amount of disease pressure scouts saw, according to Emily Flory Carolan, Pro Farmer Crop Tour data consultant.

“I would say all three districts were setting new records. They were consistently high in all measurements for corn in ear count, inches long and kernels around,” she says.

Carolan’s summary of the results scouts tallied in Iowa revealed some high yield estimates, despite the disease pressure:

*District 1 was 197.89 bushels, up 12.06% versus 2024 and up 9.89% versus the three-year average.

*District 4 was 207.25 bushels, up 5.82% versus last year and up 14.01% versus the three-year average.

*District 7 came in at 195.03 bushels, up 1.80% versus 2024 and up 6.35% versus the three-year average.

(ProFarmer)

Flory is concerned southern rust will impact standability in the Iowa crop, which he says is starting to dent in areas, and cause some of it to go down.

“I’d want to keep an eye on the stalk condition of this crop, because if this disease pressure continues, farmers are going to want to get out and prioritize fields for harvest before we get there,” he adds.

Illinois Corn Crop Looks Average
Scouts report the Illinois corn crop appears lush from the road, but once they walked out into fields, picked ears and pulled back husks, most described finding an average crop.

“We’ve seen some good corn, we’ve seen some average corn and we’ve some stuff that’s got a long way to go,” tour scout Jake Guse told U.S. Farm Report’s Tyne Morgan on Wednesday morning.

That perspective played out in the total results tallied and shared during the nightly tour meeting. Illinois corn averaged 196.19 bushels per acre, down 2.24% from last year but up 1.72% from the three-year average.

(ProFarmer)

Ninth and final stop 4 miles North of Roseville, IL. Population was very good at 34,000. The yield is 213. Kernel depth is just under a 1/2 inch. Some disease was showing up here including tar spot! Soybeans had 1778 pods in 3X3 area. #oatt #pftour25 pic.twitter.com/xAcDSxJL0q
— Darren Frye (@Frye_WSS) August 20, 2025

USDA-NASS estimates released August 12 project the Illinois corn crop will come in averaging 221 bu. per acre for the state, up 4 bushels over 2024.

That’s outside what Guse’s expectations are for the state.

“As you’re driving along the road, you can see ears that are already tipped over. I just don’t see it reaching [USDA’s projection],” he says.

Lane Akre, Pro Farmer economist and host for the eastern leg of the tour, agrees with Guse. He reports pulling several samples of corn that exceeded 200-bu. per acre as well as one that only hit 143 bushels.

“The Illinois crop just wasn’t what we’d hoped,” Akre says. “USDA is anticipating a 1.7% jump from a year ago, and we’re actually down 2.2%.”

Akre’s leg of the tour went through three Illinois counties that are typically heavy hitters for corn yields: Bureau County, Henry County and Rock Island County.

“There’s really good dirt through that area, and the farmers there are very good at actively managing their crops and what they do with fertilizer, herbicide and fungicide,” Akre notes. “We saw some poor emergence and that might’ve weighed on the samples we took.”

Soybeans Could Be the Star of the Season
Soybeans offered a better yield picture for Illinois farmers than the corn crop, Akre notes.

“We didn’t have a single sample in the state that was south of 1,300 pods in a 3’x3' square. We saw a lot of pods and a lot of potential out there,” he says.

The average counts Illinois scouts recorded was even higher than what Akre found, with an average of 1,479.22 pods in a 3’x3' square area. That is up 4.24% versus 2024 and up 12.65% versus the three-year average.

(ProFarmer)

Iowa soybean results across the three districts were equally impressive.

“This year’s crop is better than last year by far,” Greg Lehenbauer, Pro Farmer crop scout, told AgDay’s Michelle Rook. “They’ve had adequate rain across this part of Iowa almost all summer long.”

#pftour25 Day 3. Stop 2 Plymouth Co. IA. #Soybean pod count 816. @AgDayTV @FarmJournal @USFarmReport pic.twitter.com/GgmulwJ8UI
— Michelle Rook (@michellerookag) August 20, 2025

Carolan’s data confirmed the excellent soybeans that crop scouts found on Wednesday in all three districts:

*District 1 soybeans: 1,279.25 pods, up 15.38% versus 2024 and up 15.05% versus the three-year average.

*District 4 soybeans: 1,376.15 pods, up 9.73% versus 2024 and up 13.63% versus the three-year average.

*District 7 soybeans: 1,562.54 pods, up 14.37% versus 2024, and up 24.66% versus the three-year average.

(ProFarmer)

While Flory is cautiously optimistic about the Iowa soybean crop, he says stem rot and sudden death syndrome is taking root in more fields and threatening yield outcomes.

“Some of the routes through southern and west-central Iowa have seen a tremendous amount of disease issue on the soybeans, so I’ve got a feeling it’s going to look a lot different in a week than what it does right now,” he predicts. “Now, if it was September 10, that’d be one thing. But it’s August 20, and there’s still time for those bean diseases to take some yield away.”

Flory’s sentiment about what fields revealed in Iowa was shared by scout Brent Judisch.

“What it’s going to come down to here in the corn and the beans is, does the crop mature faster than the disease moves, or will disease outpace the crop?” Judisch says. “We won’t know for sure for another two or three weeks.”

Watch On-Demand: Pro Farmer Crop Tour Day 3 Results from Illinois and Iowa

Watch On-Demand: Pro Farmer Crop Tour Day 2 Results from Indiana and Nebraska

Watch On-Demand: Pro Farmer Crop Tour Day 1 Results from Ohio and South Dakota

About the Pro Farmer Crop Tour
The Pro Farmer Crop Tour is taking place Aug. 18-21, 2025. Simultaneously, the tour follows an eastern and western route, with the two culminating in Rochester, Minn. Nightly meetings in each location review daily results, scouting observations and historical comparison data. Attend nightly meetings in person or watch the nightly broadcast online at AgWeb.com/croptour .

R5 Growth Stage Holds Hidden Yield Potential

Wed, 20 Aug 2025 16:09:55 GMT

As your corn crop turns the last corner of the 2025 growing season and heads for the finish line and harvest, there is still a lot of potential yield to be made or lost in the process.

The R5 growth stage (dent) – the next to last growth stage for corn – is one of those key times in the season where your management practices and Mother Nature’s cooperation up to that point can influence harvest outcomes.

Dan Quinn, Purdue University Extension corn specialist, explains the reason: kernel dry matter content in a corn crop at the beginning of R5 is only at roughly 45% of the eventual final accumulation.

Another way to look at that – there is still up to 55% of the kernel dry weight left to be accumulated by the crop, starch that can contribute significantly to grain fill and yield.

“Therefore, if significant environmental stress (drought, nutrient deficiency, etc.) were to occur during beginning R5, significant yield losses can still occur,” Quinn writes in this online article .

Many of the newer hybrids seed companies have developed are designed to add bushels by increasing the amount of starch in kernels, according to Ken Ferrie Farm Journal Field Agronomist.

“That’s one way we obtain yield increases without raising populations,” Ferrie says.

Keying Into The R5 Growth Stage
Michigan farmer Nathan Baker addresses the importance of R5, in his most recent video, posted to YouTube on Monday .

In the video (starting at about 24 mintues), Baker is evaluating his early-April planted corn, which is starting to reach dent (R5). Of his entire 2025 crop, he says it is the most advanced field of corn he has, noting there is some disease pressure present.

“That is northern corn leaf blight. You can see it started with a lesion here, and it has spread. There’s another one. I don’t like to see that…but there’s nothing drastic,” Baker says, pointing to some damaged areas on a corn leaf.

Baker says he used fungicide to rein-in disease pressure. In some fields, he made two applications.

(Nathan Baker)

Knowing the importance of late-season grain fill is a key reason Baker says he made the investment in applying a foliar fungicide some weeks earlier.

“That’s why it’s important that we … take care of these plants late in the season and keep packing that starch in there, giving it all the nutrients and the things that it needs. It’s why I still really, really want some rain, because we can still use it to help make this corn crop better,” he says.

Baker gives a shout out to his AgriGold agronomist, Wayde Looker, for the insights he learned about the R5 growth stage.

Look For The Milk Line In Kernels
As corn moves into the R5 stage, you can start to see a distinct line near the top of kernels, which is the milk line. This line indicates the division between the dry and liquid material in the kernel.

The R5 growth stage in corn can occur approximately 30 – 40 days following silking and is defined when nearly all kernels are ‘dented’ at the crown of the kernel and hard starch or solid endosperm has begun to form.

(Dan Quinn, Purdue University Extension Corn Specialist)

As kernels harden, the line moves from the top of the kernel down to where the base attaches to the cob. Keeping an eye on the milk line’s progression is useful to corn growers who cut crop for silage or are trying to determine when to stop irrigating. It’s also helpful for growers trying to determine how much time is left before the corn reaches maturity and will be ready to combine.

Quinn says corn moves through the early part of R5 quickly and then slows as it nears physiological maturity (R6, black layer). Overall, from the beginning of R5 to maturity is about 33 days:

3 days — from the start of R5 to the quarter milk line stage
6 days — from quarter to half milk line
10 days — from half to three-quarters milk line
14 days — from three-quarters milk line to black layer

Actual time to black layer may vary depending upon the hybrid and the environment. However, this is a guide that lets you know what to expect and help you plan for harvest, Quinn says.

Your next read: Understanding Ear Flex

Ken Ferrie: Central Illinois Corn Yields Look Close To 5-Year Average

Thu, 14 Aug 2025 17:34:22 GMT

Disease pressure is ramping up in central Illinois corn but the crops have widely varying degrees of infection, according to Ken Ferrie, Farm Journal Field Agronomist.

The biggest issues area growers are dealing with now are tar spot, southern rust and some northern leaf blight. Some farmers are responding by making a second fungicide application, while others are sitting tight, given the tough economic climate.

Understanding it’s a tough call on whether a fungicide application will pay for itself, Ferrie tells growers to stay the course with their fields and make crop evaluations so they can adjust yield expectations and marketing decisions, if need be.

“I’m out here looking at these fields every day, and each one’s kind of its own surprise,” he says.

Corn Yield Potential Is Still Solid
Ferrie recalls that last season he saw a lot of central Illinois fields come in at harvest with 300-plus bushel yields. That’s not his expectation this season, though he thinks farmers could still see an above-average crop depending on what happens during the next few weeks.

“My highest yield estimate so far this season has been 297 bushels, dividing by 80. So there’s definitely a difference in what we’re yield-checking here in central Illinois compared to a year ago,” he says.

“If we compare it to the five-year average, we’re probably going to be satisfied. If we compare it to last year, we could be disappointed,” he adds.

Check Disease Tolerance Scores By Hybrid
Where hybrids had rain in July, Ferrie is seeing tar spot explode in the ear zone. With southern rust, the disease is more scattered in fields, with some more heavily infected by the disease than others.

Matt Duesterhaus is more concerned currently with southern rust in western Illinois, where he’s based, though he expects tar spot could come on stronger in a couple of weeks. He tells farmers hybrid susceptibility needs to be a consideration in the decision whether to spray a fungicide now.

“Once we get from beginning dent into full dent, it’s pretty hard to make a fungicide pay unless you’ve got a susceptible hybrid, one that makes a lot of its yield in kernel depth. So we’ve got to pay attention to those hybrid ratings,” says Duesterhaus, field research agronomist for Crop-Tech Consulting.

He encourages farmers to check their hybrid scores for tolerance to diseases they identify in their specific fields and then weigh the decision whether to make a fungicide application now.

“The tolerance gives you a starting point on scouting,” Duesterhaus says. “Depending on the tolerance, southern rust can take down one hybrid to where you’ll be picking up [combining] down corn, versus in the next hybrid, it might only be a 10- or 20-bushel hit.”

Along with evaluating disease tolerance in hybrids, Ferrie says to consider whether your hybrids are D hybrids—those that count on depth of kernel fill to get their yield punch.

“Their depth of kernel comes at the end of grain fill — the last half of the 60 or so days after pollination through black layer,” Ferrie explains. “They need to stay green as long as possible and finish the season strong. Many new hybrids are D types.”

Check out Ferrie’s latest episode of Boots In The Field podcast for more agronomic insights and recommendations on how to finish strong this season:

Your next read: Analyst Flags Potential Overshoot in Corn Yield Estimate And Why It Matters

Gorgeous Corn Crop Masks A Tough Reality For Central Illinois Growers

Tue, 12 Aug 2025 21:03:42 GMT

For more than a decade, Jerry Gidel has done annual yield checks on corn in central Illinois – walking fields, making estimates, and evaluating how the crop is stacking up compared to those in previous years.

On Tuesday, Gidel reports field checks in seven counties that circle the community of Bloomington, Ill., indicate corn yields there are going to average 198.3 bushels per acre.

At first blush, that might sound like an OK corn crop average until you look back at the yield average he calculated for the area in 2024 – 213.7 bushels. That’s a whopping 15.4 bushels more per acre than what Gidel and scouting partner, Jack Scoville, an analyst with The Price Futures Group, found in central Illinois fields last Saturday, August 9.

Gidel and Scoville say the crop there looks big, lush and beautiful, so what gives?

“I think it had to do with high overnight temperatures, which continue to be a nemesis,” Gidel told AgriTalk Host Chip Flory on Tuesday.

Pollinating Corn Likes Cooler Nighttime Temps
When corn gets little to no relief at night from high daytime temps, yields tend to suffer.

“When you keep the humidity in the atmosphere, you prevent the temperature from cooling off at night. And what ends up happening is you keep those stressful night lows around. And so it’s just not ideal,” explains Eric Snodgrass, senior science fellow at Nutrien Ag Solutions.

Cooler nights (in the 60s) help to slow respiration, preserving sugars for grain development and maximizing yield, reports the Agronomic Crops Network .

Above-average nighttime temperatures were common the past few weeks in the Midwest, according to news reports on AgWeb .

What Happened In Central Illinois?
In central Illinois, the pollination issue was not only heat related, according to Ken Ferrie, Farm Journal Field Agronomist, who is based there. Nor was it a result only from the phenomenon of overly tight tassel wrap Farm Journal has reported on extensively.

Instead, Ferrie believes wet conditions at the wrong time contributed to much of the poor pollination in corn crops around the Bloomington, Ill., area.

At pollination time, many farmers saw three or four consecutive days of heavy fog and rainfall. The moisture prevented corn pollen sacks from opening on time, essentially interrupting the pollination process, Ferrie recalls.

“It caused some significant issues with our kernel set,” says Ferrie. “I’m seeing yield losses of 15- to 40-bushel hits in affected fields.”

What Corn Stand Evaluations Show
As Gidel and Scoville scouted central Illinois corn, they saw the results of poor pollination throughout the seven counties.

“When you get in there and pull husks off the ears, we found smaller ears and a lot of tip back, and that’s really what seemed to do this crop in,” Scoville says.

“That’s how you end up getting our averages for our central Illinois tour,” adds Gidel.

Flory honed in on Gidel and Scoville’s yield estimates from three Illinois counties that show how significantly they are off this season versus last year:

Ford County: 221.5 bu/a in 2024; 207.6 this year
Iroquois County: 236 bu/a in 2024; 221.9 this year
Woodford County: 257.2 bu/a in 2024; 213.6 this year

“These three are the biggest-yielding counties you guys have seen over the past couple of years,” Flory told Gidel and Scoville. “That is a fairly consistent reduction on top-end yields from a year ago, and it certainly makes me think that that the central Illinois crop is not going to be what it was a year ago.”

Gidel agrees, noting that the highest yield he and Scoville found in central Illinois this year was 222 bushels per acre. “Last year, it was 257 bushels – so 35 bushels less is a huge difference. That definitely eliminates some of your potential,” he says.

Gidel adds what he and Scofield saw in Illinois has him concerned about what the national corn yield average will total.

“It definitely doesn’t give you [the confidence] that we’re going to see the nationwide number that some people are projecting, that 185, 187 bushels versus last year’s 179.6,” he says.

Will Pro Farmer Find The Same Yield Potential As USDA?
With USDA’s bigger than expected production estimate announced Tuesday — a record high 188.8 bushels per acre for corn and 53.6 bpa for soybeans — farmers will be analyzing Pro Farmer Crop Tour reports to see if in-field observations support or contradict the agency’s estimates.

The annual Pro Farmer Crop Tour gets underway next Monday, August 18. Scouts will be sharing reports from 2,000-plus fields across Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio and South Dakota. Learn more about the event here .

Get more of the details on what Gidel and Scoville shared regarding the central Illinois corn crop with AgriTalk’s Chip Flory here:

Your next read: USDA Shocks the Market With Corn Yields

Silver Linings: Farmers Share What’s Gone Right & Wrong This Season

Fri, 08 Aug 2025 16:42:29 GMT

What you can’t hear, reading this brief article, is the laughter.

In some cases the farmers attending this year’s Farm Journal Corn & Soybean College were laughing because the stories others in the room were telling were just downright funny.

In other cases, it was the laughter of commiseration – the ‘I understand-what-you-are-going-through’ kinds of chuckles.

Either way, the camaraderie was cathartic. It lifted spirits, gave encouragement and reminded this group of farmers they were with people who understood their worries but were doing their darnedest to press on and find silver linings in a year marked by dismal markets.

Below are comments from five different farmers who shared how their growing season is going. I hope you’ll be able to relate to some of their experiences:

East-central Iowa: “We’re just sitting in a pocket that’s had ample rain. Planting went well. The corn crop looked fabulous the moment it came out of the ground, and it just hasn’t looked back. I think it’s going to be a whopper.”

Northern Illinois: “I’ve got several neighbors coming up and saying mine’s the best crop they’ve seen, but we’ve been blessed with rain. I’ve got cattle in a (feedyard) so having extra rain isn’t always the greatest thing for that, but it is what it is.”

Southwestern Ontario, Canada: “It was a cool, wet spring. Most of our corn took at least three weeks to get out of the ground. We’re just starting to tassel now here (in late July). The crop is very uneven. There was a lot of burn, a lot of urea was put on 4-foot-tall corn. We ran out of 28% and 32% UAN. People bought it in October, and it never showed up.”

Eastern Oregon/central Washington. “We pretty much irrigate everything. If you’d look at the Google Earth map, everything you see brown is dryland wheat and everything you see that’s green is irrigation. I grow primarily fresh market potatoes. The corn’s our rotation. Everything we do, onions, alfalfa, etc., is irrigated. We don’t (have) rain. We’ll turn the switch on and start pumping. It’s costly. Hearing you guys talk about two, three inches of rain, I’d love to have it, but it never comes.”

Northeast Kansas: “Everything has been like perfect (conditions) for our corn all the way through, so far. We’ll see if that carries out to yield, but right now the corn looks fabulous. 2014 was our best crop ever, and we think we’re going to be right there this year, if things continue the way they have.”

Also, check out the brief video I did with two growers during the event. I appreciated their willingness to share their thoughts on what’s gone right for them this season. They did their best to share some words of encouragement for anyone who’s watching. My sincere thanks – Pat Gannon, Colfax, Iowa, and Doug Bontekoe, Marion, Michigan – for letting me talk with you between sessions.

Your next read: Ready For What’s Next: How An Iowa Farmer Survived the ‘80s Farm Crisis and Now Invests In Others

National Corn Yield Predictions Are Trending Higher Thanks To Summer Moisture

Tue, 05 Aug 2025 21:39:27 GMT

Six months ago, no one saw this coming – abundant rainfall and then some for the 2025 growing season throughout much of the Corn Belt.

“It has been six years since we’ve seen a rainfall growing season map like what we have seen for 2025,” says Brad Rippey, USDA agricultural meteorologist.

“You have to go back to 2019, which was the year of too much rain. This year, if anything, it’s just about perfect,” says Rippey, who describes this summer as “almost like a Goldilocks growing season, to date.”

(NOAA-National Weather Service)

Three Months Of Moisture, And Counting
The percent of normal precipitation in the U.S. May through July shows above-average moisture levels across key corn and soybean production areas. Many states recorded at least 90% of their normal precipitation on the low end and upwards of 150% of their normal precipitation levels on the high end.

“You have a pretty consistent pattern everywhere east of the Rockies – look at all the greens and blues on the map – pockets of wetness. Certainly, just about everybody from the Plains eastward is looking at adequate to abundant moisture,” Rippey shared with Clinton Griffiths during the U.S. Farm Report.

(USDA-NASS)

The abundant moisture is helping fuel higher corn quality levels. USDA reports the corn crop nationally is at 73% in good too excellent condition – a 5% increase over this same time in 2024.

That rating is likely to stand going into the August 12 USDA-NASS Crop Production report, which the agency will conduct by satellite imagery.

“I know corn conditions and crop conditions in general, as reported by USDA-NASS, are not the end all in the conversation. It really matters when they go out into the fields and look – but look at that Iowa number of 87% good to excellent,” Rippey says.

He believes the current stats in combination with the results from USDA’s satellite imagery reviews will drive average yield estimate numbers for corn higher.

“What they’re going to see is an awfully good-looking corn crop,” Mark Schultz, chief market analyst for Northstar Commodity, told Michelle Rook during U.S. Farm Report.

“The question gets to be, do they bump it immediately – up to 184, 185, something like that? I would say it’s probably what we’re trying to trade into the market at the present time,” Schultz says. “That appears to be where most of the privates are going to into that category. You know, they’re not going to see anything terrible, that’s for sure.”

Corn Growth Heads Into The Home Stretch
Insights from USDA data provide some perspective on just how well this year’s corn crop is shaping up as the growing season turns the corner and heads for the finish line.

(USDA-NASS)

“You have to go all the way back to 2016 to see a higher crop condition index for corn this time in the growing season,” Rippey reports.

A map showing production outcomes for nearly the past decade illustrates how 2025 ranks near the top of the pack for corn crop conditions.

“The 2015, 16, 17, 18 seasons were all above-trend yields for corn, and the only year we have been above trend since then – and just barely – was 2021,” he says.

Moisture conditions the past few years have run to the dry side, a problem many mainstream meteorologists predicted would repeat this growing season.

“We found out the hard way last year that late summer dryness can take a toll on the crop, and we did come down off of some of that yield potential,” Rippey recalls.

The two key questions now are how will the 2025 corn crop finish out the growing season, and what will Mother Nature do between now and harvest?

(NOAA National Weather Service)

According to the National Weather Service, farmers in the Eastern Corn Belt will potentially see more moisture. There are also indications below-normal rainfall and drier conditions will take root in parts of the western Corn Belt in the weeks ahead, starting sometime this month.

“But if that happens beyond the month of August, there is not going to be a significant impact on corn or soybeans,” Rippey predicts. “All indications are for bumper crops for just about everywhere in the country, except Montana and points West.”

Your next read: Funds Sell Corn and Soybeans on Weather and Record Yields