Northwest (U.S.)

Goodbye, La Niña? Eric Snodgrass Dissects What the Shift Means for Weather This Spring and Summer

Fri, 14 Mar 2025 21:12:49 GMT

La Niña is weakening, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) expects neutral conditions to develop in the next month . But even with La Niña fading, meteorologists are still concerned about drought this spring and summer.

NOAA this week said forecasters expect ENSO-neutral conditions to develop in the next month and persist through the Northern Hemisphere’s summer. According to NOAA, La Niña’s signature is cooler-than-average surface water in the east-central tropical Pacific, stronger-than-average trade winds, and drier conditions over the central Pacific.

ENSO-neutral means conditions could be close to average, but Eric Snodgrass, Nutrien’s principal atmospheric scientist, says that doesn’t mean the weather will be normal this spring and summer.

“I do expect changes,” Snodgrass says. “Think about it like this: The previous winter was an El Niño winter, and it was very mild and very wet. So, we got into spring ’24 with tons of moisture. I mean, Iowa, Minnesota and South Dakota flooded out. Then we had this incredibly dry fall as the La Niña began, and it reached a peak twice. It actually hit a peak in December, and then a secondary peak about a month later at the end of January. It’s been fading ever since. The big question is, as we go into neutral conditions for this upcoming growing season, is it going to be one that paints a picture of precipitation extremes? Did it leave us with any sort of kind of problems from winter that are carrying over?”

Snodgrass says the severe weather outbreaks on Friday, that brought high winds, dust storms and wildfire warnings across the Plains, is a reminder how dry it is in the Southwest.

“We’ve got major pockets of the country that are still dealing with some pretty big drought conditions. It is fading, and that is a signal we have to pay attention to,” Snodgrass says.

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey is also concerned about what impact the shifting pattern will have on farmers this spring. But it’s not just the dryness. It’s also the fact areas are getting inundated with rains that could pose problems.

“With this stormy weather pattern in place, that is going to create some difficulty for spring field work in some areas. It looks like the primary storm track may be through parts of the middle of the country extending into the lower Midwest and eventually the interior northeast. That is one area where we already have fairly wet conditions,” Rippey says.

How sea surface temperatures in the Niño-3.4 region of the tropical Pacific changed over the course of all La Niña events since 1950 (gray lines) and 2024-25 (black line). This shows the traditional calculation for Niño-3.4, the monthly temperature compared to the most recent 30-year average (1991–2020 for the 2024 line). By this measure, the La Niña threshold was crossed in December 2024, but La Niña remains weak.

(NOAA)

La Niñas and El Niños Are Strongest in the Winter
Snodgrass points out La Niñas and El Niños are always strongest in Northern Hemisphere’s winter, which means they fade in spring and summer.

While La Niña-like conditions were a trademark in late fall, we didn’t reach the official definition of La Niña until January.

“The atmosphere way back in November was already treating our winter timeframe like a La Niña,” Snodgrass says. So, we were getting the influences of it as it comes in and goes out. And now the question is, what’s it going to do?”

February 2025 sea surface temperature compared to the 1985-1993 average. The surface of the east-central tropical Pacific is slightly below average temperature, but much of the global ocean remains warmer than average.

(NOAA )

“This is a great map to look at,” Snodgrass says, referencing the map above. “If you focus right in the middle, you see the large area of the cooler colors. Our line is now shifting to the central and West Pacific and behind it over by South America. All of the warmer water is beginning to emerge. And that’s what’s killing it because there’s a trade wind across that area from the east to the west. We’re going to watch this fade carefully during the spring. But the question is: Do we get winter’s leftovers?”

What Fueled the Dryness This Winter?
During the winter, Snodgrass points out there was no subtropical jet. That’s what fueled drought in the Southwest and Northwest.

“I’m actually kind of worried about the beginning of April having another shot at cold air after what we’ve been experiencing in March, which has been so very, very mild. Then you say, well, we’ve had so much dry air in place. Are we still worried about more dry air coming back? To be honest, these big storm systems coming through the central U.S., if we could get four, maybe five more of those by early April, we’re going to hate it. It’s nasty weather. It’s not fun, and it’s dangerous, but it returns moisture. That could be part of the mix of things, including the fading of La Niña that could help bring us away from these major early season drought risk scenarios.”

55% of corn production, 46% of soybean production, 33% of the cotton growing area and 27% of the winter wheat production are currently experiencing drought.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

Growing Drought Concerns
What if it doesn’t? What if we don’t see more of this severe weather hit the Southwest and Plains, and moisture remains absent as we get into the height of spring? Well, the area will enter into the height of the growing season dry and reduce their chances of seeing moisture this summer.

“That’s a box we check every spring,” Snodgrass says. “If the drought monitor saw a reduction in drought over winter, then that gives us a different look for spring. But what we see here is two-thirds of the country in some stage of drought, including the abnormally dry category. But it’s the epicenters of drought that are so concerning. Look at the Western Corn Belt. Look at the Southwest. We just wonder if that funnels into the Mississippi Valley as we go forward.”

At the same time some areas are seeing drought, Kentucky, southern Indiana, southern Illinois, Tennessee, Arkansas and the boot heel of Missouri are all experiencing heavy rains and flooding.

“By May 11, I want to know what the drought monitor map looks like. If it looks no different, then I’m going to be sounding alarms going into summer with concerns this will start to creep and move because as soon as we get into the summer weather, all we get is convective storms pop off. And what do they do? They just locally deliver rain - not big broad swaths of it,” Snodgrass says.

Tale of Two Weather Scenarios
He says the forecast leading up to May 11 is a tale of two weather patterns, with the Mississippi River being the dividing line for moisture.

“If you are along it and east of it, I think we’re going to have tight windows to plant. You could include a little bit more of Missouri, Iowa and Minnesota in that as well,” Snodgrass says. “I think we’re going to see repeated storm systems. The best moisture is east. It keeps avoiding that southern plains area.”

What to Watch: Where the Storm Chasers End Up
Snodgrass says if storm chasers are busying chasing severe weather across the Ohio Valley, the mid-south and the southeast, but not in Kansas and the Plains, that’s a key indicator there’s a problem with the moisture getting back into the plains.

“If it’s not there by the time we start June, it’s very difficult to rely on the atmosphere to return it once you get into the summer months if you live in the central plains, which is where they could build from,” he adds.

To watch the complete discussion with Snodgrass, visit Farm Journal TV and take advantage of the free trial.

Your Next Read:
Ag Meterologists Worry More Drought Lies Ahead For Spring

A Tale Of Two Crops: Farmers Struggle Against Flooding And Drought

Tue, 25 Jun 2024 15:23:00 GMT

This week’s USDA crop progress report shows conditions continuing to decline for corn and soybeans. For corn, 69% is in good to excellent condition (down 3% from last week). The total soybean crop in good to excellent condition is also down 3% - from 70% last week to 67% this week.

And while some growers have severe drought to blame, others can point to extreme flooding.

This June has held two different extremes--

💧One of the wettest on record for the Upper Midwest/Northern Plains

☀️While being one of the driest on record for the Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic

👉The rest of the month? More rain for the Upper Midwest while drier than normal… pic.twitter.com/aWVZ1o5gsB
— BAM Weather (BAMWX) (@bamwxcom) June 23, 2024

In Iowa, growers might need to grab a life jacket before going to check their fields.

Abby and I went out and scouted a little bit of corn this afternoon. pic.twitter.com/yBBLsAjFkp
— Pete Crew. (Not the sharpest knife in the drawer). (@pete_90210) June 23, 2024

Last year we had 5.5" rain during growing season and this farm averaged 240 bu. This year 16" so far in May/June. pic.twitter.com/wOsGJsH4hm
— Living the dream (@NeIowaFarmer) June 22, 2024

Rock Valley, IA Flooding today. What a trainwreck pic.twitter.com/rumOfxyslQ
— Chris VB🐷🐖🌾🚤⛳ (@chrsvnbk) June 22, 2024

South Dakota farmers are having a similar experience - with this operation reporting 10" of rain in one day.

Water running into lake, yes my folks have house here! My farm is completely engulfed, can’t get within 15 miles. Animals safe, daughter safe we appreciate all of the kindness. Stay safe ❤️ pic.twitter.com/NvVMjqXDas
— ChelLewis (@LewisEQAcademy) June 24, 2024

The Oklahoma Pork Council has even started work to help those affected by the flood.

We are working to support our friends in the panhandle with food and other assistance as they recover from severe flash flooding. If you know of a direct need that our alliance of great community members can help meet, please give us a call or email us at kdeniz@okpork.org. pic.twitter.com/KT0meG0k5H
— Oklahoma Pork (@Okpork) June 19, 2024

But it seems the rain is only falling in one part of the country as farmers further east are hoping the skies open up soon.

Somewhere between the flood and us

It is just right pic.twitter.com/jUvV2wWBTY
— Stephen Ellis 190/58 (@sellis_1994) June 22, 2024

Hot Weather and Recent Dryness Create Favorable Conditions for Rapid Drought Development. https://t.co/UMw8lZcKJV pic.twitter.com/Unqb9Al6oa
— NWS Climate Prediction Center (@NWSCPC) June 24, 2024

Click here to let us know how your crops are progressing.

A Potential Setback For Fieldwork Is On The Way

Thu, 21 Mar 2024 13:46:36 GMT

Though we’ve passed the official first day of spring, winter weather still poses a threat to growers in the North itching to start planting. USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey says changes are on the way over the next several days for the Northern Plains and Midwest regions that could delay planting progress.

“We are expecting a snowstorm to arrive across the Northern Plains and upper Midwest Thursday, and a second storm arriving over the weekend into early next week,” Rippey says.

He adds areas that have been experiencing snow drought this winter, such as Minnesota and northern Iowa, could potentially see more snowfall in the next few weeks than they have all winter. This map from NOAA shows snowfall accumulation - or lack thereof - across the country between late September and mid-March.

But while winter weather attempts to slowdown planting in the North, Rippey says growers in the South have gotten a significant head start. As of March 17, Texas reported 34% of corn and 27% of sorghum acreage has already been planted, while Arizona has completed 2% of cotton planting.

“The bottom line is, for many parts of the country, spring has come early and we expect planting to be normal or ahead of normal given soil conditions,” he says. “But as we focus on some of those northern areas, we do expect deteriorating conditions for pre-planting fieldwork due to these late-season snowstorms.”

Rippey adds rain is in the outlook for the South, but he doesn’t anticipate it delaying planting progress.

New Survey Shows Labor is Serious Challenge for Ag Industry

Thu, 28 Dec 2023 18:00:19 GMT

A new survey from the Minneapolis Fed found ag bankers rank labor availability as a top concern for their farm clients.

The survey, which was conducted with ag bankers from the ninth district (Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wisconsin), found the issue is viewed as a “serious challenge” for 63% of respondents and a minor challenge for the majority of the remaining 37%.

“It’s becoming more and more difficult to obtain the labor needed to operate,” a Minnesota-based banker told the Minneapolis Fed.

The availability of livestock workers was seen as more limited than crop workers and those surveyed also shared that finding long-term help is more difficult than temporary help due to the seasonal nature of the ag industry.

As far as how this compares to past conditions, 39% of respondents said labor availability has gotten “much worse” over the past five years and 44% said it’s “a little worse”.

The Minneapolis Fed attributes this challenge to the region’s low influx of migrant workers and aging workforce.

According to U.S. Census Bureau data, 10% of animal production employees in the area are foreign born, compared to 18% nationally. The number is even lower for crop production with just 5% of workers being foreign born, compared to 32% nationally.

The region also has some of the lowest unemployment rates in the U.S.

At the same time, the median age of workers in the region rose from 51 to 56 in 2021. The number of workers between 45 to 54 has declined over the past decade with a small increase of those between the ages of 25 to 44 and a large increase of those over 55.

2024 Land Value Influencers in Your Region

Mon, 04 Dec 2023 21:41:34 GMT

Using a combination of data with boots on the ground experience, Peoples Company has released its fourth annual land values report.

The report shows a three-year period of remarkable land appreciation across the country – something Bruce Sherrick, professor and director of the TIAA Center for Farmland Research at the University of Illinois, says has not been surprising.

“We kind of have a rolling narrative around this and quite often people will remark it’s shocking that farmland almost anticipated inflation or that it’s shocking how well that’s done through time. And I don’t think I’m surprised by that,” he says. “I’m surprised by the accuracy or the degree or the strength of that relationship if anything.”

Annual rates of return have been in the double digits for many regions. In the Northern Plains region specifically, the rate of change in the past year has been especially high.

“In the last year, what we’ve seen is really quite remarkable in the middle of the country,” Sherrick says. “That area has kind of caught up to previous years in the Midwest and Lake states.”

As far as what’s affecting land values in the rest of the country, Peoples Company breaks the data into eight regions.

Pacific West

Annual performance on permanent cropland in the Pacific West and California has suffered in recent years due to a period of low nut prices, tariffs, water challenges and high operating capital.

3 Unique Characteristics of The Permanent Crop Industry

Steve Bruere, president of Peoples Company, anticipates a lot of land transactions in the California market in 2024.

“The amount of irrigated, plantable acreage is shrinking,” he adds. “The acreage left standing will be more valuable over time because of the optionality of what you can grow on it.”

Pacific Northwest

Similar to the Pacific West, the Pacific Northwest has had a period of good returns and offers a lot of optionality of what can be grown on the land. The land values in comparison to its western neighbors, however, are much lower to produce a similar product. That factor – alongside increased access to water resources – allows the region to absorb displaced production from other areas.

“We’re seeing at least that phase of exploration on some of those fresh market crops that may have some compressed acreage and higher water costs to deal with in California looking at the Pacific Northwest, the Columbia River Basin area in particular, as a transition point,” says Dave Muth, Peoples Company’s capital markets managing director.

Southern Plains

The Southern Plains region – Texas and Oklahoma – is experiencing good land value returns despite water issues and labor complications. As these challenges continue, renewable energy projects are becoming key to the region’s profitability.

“Think about it: 20,30, or 40 years ago, when someone was looking to buy a ranch, if transmission lines ran across it, that might take it off the list. Now those same transmission lines are seen as a huge asset,” says Eric O’Keefe, editor of The Land Report. “This emphasis on energy, whether it be in terms of oil and gas or renewables including direct carbon capture, is going to be a complete game changer. I think it’s going to be driving land values in Texas for decades to come.”

Northern Plains

Total returns per year in the Northern Plains over the past three years are averaged at 18.5% - the highest in the country.

“The increase in values have been rather dramatic compared to other parts of the country in the last three-year period. Part of that’s driven by relative yield gains, but it’s also the genetics and the attention to doing genetics for this part of the country by the major seed corn and other seed producers,” Sherrick says. “It has made this a possible competitor for the rest of the country.”

The focus on foreign and corporate ownership in this area also makes it unique in comparison to other regions.

“You see a difference in these types of markets where the farmers aren’t driving values,” Bruere says. “If you take that institutional investor out of the market, it definitely impacts land values and we saw that real time this summer and Kansas and Colorado.”

Delta Market

The Delta Market – Mississippi, Louisiana and Arkansas – has seen the most stable returns over time when compared to other regions across the country, which makes it attractive to outside investors.

“You don’t get necessarily the same swings that we get in the Midwest in this market. And I’m really bullish – you’ve got plenty of water and you’ve got large fields,” Bruere says. “One of the issues we do struggle with in this market is the tenant pool. You don’t have that same competitive nature for tenants that you’ve gotten Midwest.”

Southeast Market

The Southeast – Florida, Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina – has seen moderate returns in comparison to the other regions. The increase in severe weather as well as development in the area leads Sherrick to expect quite a bit of transition in the future.

“I’m actually not worried about land values, hardly at all in this region, for traditional agricultural things,” he says. “Land that gets displaced for a retirement community, a park, golf course or major league baseball facility aren’t reductions in value. They’re just a reduction in the use of it for agriculture.”

Lake States

The Great Lakes region is one Sherrick describes as “still trying to figure out who they’re going to be”.

“There’s great optionality, reasonable acquisition prices and massive increases in land values that have kind of kept the returns high, very correlated with inflation as well,” he says.

Though the yields in the region may not be as high as in the corn belt, the area’s total returns per year over the past three years have averaged 14%.

Corn Belt

Sherrick refers to Illinois and Indiana as indicators and predictors of what’s happening in the agriculture industry.

The region continues to have high appreciation values and above average farm incomes, though transactions have slowed in 2023. The corn belt is anticipated to have continued interest from non-operating investors.

Looking at 2024
Overall, Peoples Company reports the driving factors behind land values are income, interest rates and inflation. As we move into 2024, they expect this will begin to normalize.

Buyer demand is also expected to remain a key player.

“There’s more money that wants to own farmland in there as farmland for sale. That dynamic is not going to change in 2024,” says Bruere. “Right now it feels like interest rates are pulling back a little bit and I think the landmark is going to remain pretty stable in 2024.”

Did Frost Bite Your Corn Or Soybeans? Use These Tips to Assess Damage

Mon, 23 May 2022 15:40:06 GMT

The frigid air that blew through the northern Corn Belt and Mountain States over the weekend left its mark on corn and soybean fields. From burnt leaf tissue to blotchy, curled leaves, Farm Journal Field Agronomist Missy Bauer shares these tips to evaluate frost damage.

To ensure the growing point is OK, Bauer says to split open the plant from the base of the crown up.

“If the plant is a bright white to yellow color (not brown or mushy) then it should keep growing,” she explains. “Don’t be alarmed if the plant has some buggy whipping [twisted whorls] – that’s just the new tissue replacing the old tissue.”

If you see a field with some blotching and leaf damage — a white or greyish cast as you drive by — that is the damaged soybean tissue and leaves that have rolled or flipped over.

“Pay particular attention to the low-lying areas and sandier soils,” she says. “No-till fields, in many cases, are worse.”

Be diligent about scouting soybean fields to evaluate stands and determine final plant population, Bauer advises. “I am most concerned about fields already marginal on stand counts due to prior frost events,” she adds.

Bauer is comfortable keeping stands of 65,000 to 70,000, if they are uniform. To determine plant populations, follow the instructions outlined in this Purdue University Extension tip sheet to use a hula hoop for 15” and narrower rows and a yardstick for 20” and 30” rows. The Extension bulletin also has information on percent of normal yield based on final populations, which is helpful when making replant decisions.

When counting plants be sure to only count ones that will survive, Bauer adds. If the unifoliate leaves are burnt off but the cotyledons are healthy, those plants will survive. If a plant is burnt below the cotyledons, it won’t survive. If the stem below the cotyledons is not firm and doesn’t have good turgor pressure, it will also likely not survive.

At this point, Bauer says, it’s important you don’t add any more stress to corn and soybeans already under stress.

“We recommend holding off on applying your post-emergent herbicides for 120 growing degree days (or heat units) from the time of the frost,” she says. “Soybean fields that have good stands and limited frost damage can be rolled. Wait until after the 120 growing degree days and the proper growth stage on fields with heavy frost damage where plants must regrow from new growing points.”