Morocco

Trump Considers Suspending Moroccan Phosphate Duties Amid Corn Grower Pressure

Wed, 25 Mar 2026 13:35:49 GMT

For corn farmers like Dee Vaughan, the economics of fertilizer aren’t just a simple line item on the balance sheet; they are immediate, seasonal and deeply tied to whether a crop pencils out.

As a corn grower in the Texas Panhandle, Vaughan says rising input costs have forced tough decisions in recent years, particularly when it comes to phosphate, a cornerstone nutrient for crop production. And he says a key factor behind those higher costs is a federal trade policy now under review. At the heart of the issue, Vaughan says, is access, or lack of it.

That’s why just this week more than 50 state grower groups including the Texas Corn Producers Association, are urging the U.S. Department of Commerce and the International Trade Commission (ITC) to revoke countervailing duties (CVDs) on imported phosphate fertilizers from Morocco and Russia. The groups filed a letter with the Department of Commerce, urging the agency to revoke countervailing duties on imports of phosphate fertilizer as the sunset review begins.

In addition to the letter, corn groups are on Capitol Hill this week, and that push may be gaining traction. On Tuesday, Agri-Pulse reported The Trump administration is weighing temporarily suspending countervailing applied to Moroccan and Russian phosphate.

How the Duties Took Hold

Vaughan says any action to remove those duties wouldn’t just be welcome, it would be a long time coming. He says the current dispute dates back to 2020, when fertilizer manufacturer Mosaic filed a petition alleging Moroccan phosphate imports were being subsidized unfairly. After reviewing the case, the ITC and Department of Commerce imposed countervailing duties on those imports.

“And basically what we have is a situation where The Mosaic Company came to the International Trade Commission and the Department of Commerce back in 2020 and asked for a countervailing duty, a CVD, to be placed on Moroccan fertilizer,” Vaughan says. “They were claiming that Moroccan fertilizer was coming into the United States in an unfair manner.”

He says the ruling reshaped the global fertilizer flow into the U.S. market.

“The ITC and the Department of Commerce reviewed that request and they applied a countervailing duty on Moroccan fertilizer, which effectively locked Moroccan fertilizer out of the U.S. market,” Vaughan says.

That outcome, he says, has had lasting consequences, particularly because Morocco represents one of the world’s most significant sources of phosphate.

“Morocco has the largest phosphate deposits in the world,” Vaughan says. “They have the ability to provide a lot of supply to us while our phosphate rock resources are declining here. They’re not capable of meeting the demand for the U.S. market.”

Supply Constraints Meet Rising Demand

For corn growers, phosphate isn’t optional. It’s essential for root development, plant vigor and yield potential. When supply tightens, growers feel it quickly and often adjust in ways that ripple across the entire agricultural economy.

“We need that access to the Moroccan fertilizer, but we’re blocked off from it by these countervailing duties,” Vaughan says.

Now, five years after those duties were imposed, the policy is entering its required “sunset review,” a process that allows regulators to evaluate whether the measures should remain in place.

That review begins in April, and Vaughan says corn growers see it as a critical opportunity to get the duties removed.

“Five years have gone by since those CVDs were applied, and now they are coming up for mandatory review,” he says. “There will be an opportunity to remove those CVDs.”

Measuring the Economic Impact

The push to remove the duties is backed by economic analysis.

Vaughan says conversations with lawmakers last year helped spur a deeper look at the issue. During meetings in Washington, D.C., Texas Corn raised concerns with members of Congress, including Rep. Pat Fallon, who then commissioned a study by the Texas A&M Ag and Food Policy Center. The results, Vaughan says, were significant.

“What they determined is for the program crops — corn, wheat, grains, oilseeds, rice — it had cost about $6.9 billion over the five years that the CVD has been in place,” Vaughan says.

The analysis released in January of this year added to the growing body of evidence that countervailing duties on phosphate imports have significantly impacted U.S. farmers.

The Texas A&M Food and Agricultural Policy Center report specifically found the CVD increased the price of diammonium phosphate (DAP), a commonly used phosphorus fertilizer, by 28.6% during the period when the duty was set at its full initial rate of 19.97%. That price impact, the study notes, aligns with concerns raised by farm groups and lawmakers, as well as previous academic research.

The study also estimates the higher costs have added roughly $6.9 billion to phosphorus fertilizer expenses for U.S. producers of major crops during the 2021 through 2025 growing seasons, further underscoring the financial burden on agriculture tied to the policy.

“It’s not a silver bullet in itself that if it’s removed it’s going to make phosphate fertilizer much more affordable,” he says. “But at the same time, if we can keep a billion dollars in the farmers’ pockets, that’s a small win that we want to take advantage of.”

Fertilizer Companies Respond

Farm Journal reached out to fertilizer companies for perspective on potential action to remove the countervailing duties on phosphate imports.

In a statement, Mosiac said, “American farmers depend on a strong domestic fertilizer industry, which in turn depends on strong enforcement of US trade laws that ensure a level playing field. Mosaic is proud to support U.S. agriculture with high‑quality, reliable products produced here at home.”

Earlier this month, Nutrien told Farm Journal the evolving global supply and demand landscape for phosphate supports reconsideration of the current policy.

“Based on evolving global phosphate supply and demand dynamics since 2021, we believe removing countervailing duties on phosphate imports would be a constructive step that supports U.S. farmer economics, balanced fertilizer application and agricultural productivity,” Nutrien said to Farm Journal. “Farmers and food security are at the center of everything we do, and we continuously engage with our customers and associations on issues that are important to U.S. agriculture.”

A Broader Policy Question

While Vaughan is advocating for the removal of these specific duties, he says he recognizes the importance of trade enforcement tools more broadly.

“You know, we do have situations around the world where governments subsidize their industries, or they do things that are unfair trade practices,” he says. “And we need to protect U.S. industry in those situations.”

However, he argues this case highlights the risk of unintended consequences.

“We don’t want that CVD process abused when it’s not necessary,” Vaughan says. “And that’s the situation we feel like we’re in now.”

In his view, the duties have outlived whatever purpose they may have served — and are now doing more harm than good.

“We felt like they never should have been applied,” he says. “If you read the case, it’s very complicated, but it also makes you scratch your head and wonder why they even granted these CVDs to start with.”

Taking the Case to Washington

With the sunset review approaching, grower groups are mobilizing to make their case. Texas Corn is in Washington this week, meeting with lawmakers and encouraging them to weigh in with regulators.

“During this review period, there’s an opportunity for ag organizations to make comments and to testify at hearings,” Vaughan says. “There’s an opportunity for Congress to weigh in with the Department of Commerce.”

While the ITC operates independently, it does consider input from affected industries and elected officials.

“They’re charged with listening to the affected industries, which would be agricultural producers,” Vaughan says. “And of course members of Congress have an opportunity to weigh in with how it’s affecting their constituents at home.”

The goal, he says, is to ensure decision-makers understand the real-world impact.

Looking Ahead

For Vaughan and other corn growers, the outcome of the review could shape fertilizer markets — and farm economics — for years to come.

Restoring access to Moroccan phosphate, he says, would reintroduce competition, improve supply and help ease cost pressures across agriculture.

“It’s basically just hurting U.S. industry now,” Vaughan says. “It’s not helping.”

And while Morocco has other markets for its fertilizer, U.S. farmers have fewer alternatives when domestic supply falls short.

“It’s not really hurting the Moroccans per se,” he says. “They’re having to send fertilizer to other places in the world. But it’s hurting U.S. farmers.”

As planting season ramps up, Vaughan says the stakes are clear, not just for growers, but for the entire food system.

“We’re very hopeful that ag organizations and members of Congress take advantage of this situation and weigh in,” he says. “This is an opportunity to fix something that’s been costing agriculture for five years.”

The Executive Briefing: September 11

Mon, 11 Sep 2023 02:50:22 GMT

Thoughts for the week ahead

Never Forget. We begin this week with a heavy heart for two reasons:

First, today marks 22 years since the September 11th terrorist attack on the World Trade Center Towers and the U.S. Pentagon. Several of our team had been working in New York and Washington, DC at that time, and thus we honor friends, colleagues, first responders and all others that perished during that tragic event.
Second, a 6.8 magnitude earthquake struck Morocco on Friday, causing widespread property damage and killing more than 2,000 people. Morocco is an important region of the world for phosphate, a natural source of phosphorous, a key element that is an essential ingredient in fertilizer.

Beyond Morocco, other items we are focused on this week include the September WASDE report, the latest CPI and PPI readings, and several ag-centric outlooks. (More details on upcoming events can be found later in this week’s package.) This week’s Briefing also includes a slide on Chicken Wings (which are preparing for takeoff), an insurance catastrophe monitor, and a few slides on recent spot commodity price performance.

The Watch List

Fertilizer Sector

Likely disruptions in Moroccan phosphate fertilizer production due to last Friday’s earthquake.

Grain Sector

Low water levels (again!) on the Mississippi River threaten ag exports out of the Gulf and shipments of inputs into the Midwest.

Government

Shutdown risk is back on the table for October 2023.

Monetary Policy

The next Federal Reserve rate decision comes next week.

Student Debt

Some 43 million people, or around 17% of adults in the U.S., have federal student loan debt, with payments due beginning 10/1/2023. The typical monthly student loan payment falls between $209 and $314, equating to a pay cut of around 4% to 5% pretax of U.S. median household, according to a Wells Fargo analysis.

Upcoming Events

Monday, 9/11/2023

September 11th Terrorist Attack Remembrance Day
Weekly Grain Exports & Crop Progress

Tuesday, 9/12/2023

World Agricultural Production (WASDE), USDA-NASS Crop Production, Grains & Oilseeds World Markets & Trade, Farm Journal Insurance & Weather Webinar

Wednesday, 9/13/2023

Consumer Price Index (CPI) (3.6% total and 4.3% core expected yr./yr.) U.S. Senate will hold its first AI Insight Forum
EIA Weekly Ethanol Production , Meat Price Spreads

Thursday, 9/14/2203

Initial Jobless Claims, Product Price Index (PPI), U.S. Retail Sales, Business Inventories, European Central Bank monetary policy decision statement.
Weekly Grain Export Sales, USDA Outlooks: Oil Crops, Wheat, Rice, Feed, Cotton & Wool

Friday, 9/15/2023

Empire State Manufacturing Survey, Industrial Production & Utilization, University of Michigan (GO BLUE!) Consumer Sentiment
Feed Grains Yearbook Tables

Wednesday, 9/20/2023

Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision

Saturday, 9/23/2023

25 years ago today the U.S. Government bailed out Long-Term Capital Management, a large hedge fund that failed.

Morocco Earthquake & Fertilizer Facts

What Happened?
A 6.8 magnitude earthquake struck Morocco on Friday, causing widespread damage at killing more than 2,000 people based on initial estimates reported by major newspapers. Morocco is an important region of the world for phosphate, a natural source of phosphorous, an element that is an essential ingredient in fertilizer.

Phosphate Facts*

Global phosphate supply is dominated by China (85 million tons), Morocco (38 million tons) and the United States (22 million tons.) Russia (12.5 million tons) and Jordan (9.2 million tons) round out the top five producers.
The distribution of global phosphate reserves looks quite different.
Morocco is largest at 50 billion tons (70% of global reserves), followed by China (3.2 billion tons), Egypt (2.8 billion tons), and Algeria (2.2 billion tons.)
Brazil and South Africa each have 1.6 billion tons of reserves.
The United States has 1.0 billion tons of phosphate reserves, putting it in 10th place.

Key Players in Phosphate Fertilizer**
1. EuroChem Group AG
2. Coromandel International Ltd.
3. Israel Chemicals Ltd.
4. Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co. Ltd.
5. Jordan Phosphate Mines Co. PLC
6. Nutrien Ltd.
7. Maaden – Saudi Arabian Mining Co.
8. OCP SA
9. The Mosaic Co.
10. PhosAgro AG
*Source: KSB Mining, April 4, 2023. **Straits Research

September WASDE Preview

Slightly bullish outlook for the September WASDE.

This is the first WASDE report of the year to include field-collected data, and likely includes changes to projected planted and harvested acres based on FSA and RMA data. USDA estimates the harvest at 82.7 million acres of soybeans and 86.3 million acres of corn

As of September 5th, soybeans were rated 53% good to excellent (vs. 58% last year) and 17% poor to very poor (vs. 14% last year). Corn was rated 54% good to excellent (vs. 56% year) and 18% poor to very poor (vs. 19% last year).

Ending stocks/carryover for next year are likely to be trimmed based on old crop exports but remain at historically high levels.

Key item to watch will be the global stocks forecast, however, since South American crops are not yet planted, that remains a wildcard. Another key issue will be if there is sufficient rain between now and harvest, something that won’t be reflected in the WASDE report.

WASDE is also going to revise the Canadian and Australian wheat crop estimates with new numbers that recently came out from StatsCan and ABARES.

	Dow Jones Yield Range	Avg	August WASDE	Dow Jones Production	August WASDE
Corn	171-175 bpa	173.3 bpa	175.1 bpa	14.994 bln bu	15.111 bln bu
Soybeans	49-51 bpa	50bpa	50.9 bpa	4.139 bln bu	4.205 bln bu

Insurance / Catastrophe Monitor

It continues to be another year of extreme weather with the June 2023 transition from La Nina to El Nino
The extreme weather has resulted in numerous property losses impacting agriculture production, commercial non-farm agribusinesses, and supply chains.

The situation continues to result in higher property insurance premiums for grain and farm supply cooperatives, a subject we will be discussing in a webinar on Tuesday, September 12.

As of August 8th prior to Hurricane Idalia) there have been 15 confirmed weather/climate disaster events with losses exceeding $1 billion in the US that resulted in the deaths of 113 people.

The 15 events compares to an average of 8 events from 1980–2022 annually and 18 events from 2018–2022 (CPI-adjusted).

Source: National Centers for Environmental Information https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/

Numbers of Interest

6.5% Expected increase in employer provided health insurance costs for 2024 (WSJ)
18.2% Price change in U.S. Diesel #2 from June 5, 2023 ($3.80/gal) to September 4, 2023 ($4.49/gal) driven by Russian and Saudi cuts of sour and medium sour crude oil. (EIA)
20% Commercial real estate (CRE) exposure held by banks relative to their deposits (WSJ)
-8.8% China’s outbound shipments declined 8.8% in August y/y, compared to a 14.5% year/year drop in July.
10.7% 1 month price performance for the S&P Energy Index
$267 billion In 2023, nearly 5,650 animal food manufacturing facilities will generate a total of $267 billion in total sales with 80,000 direct employees, according to the American Feed Industry Association’s annual report,
$177.5 billion USDA estimate for Agricultural Trade for Fiscal Year 2023 as of August, down $3.5 billion from its May forecast, due to decreasing corn, wheat and tree nut exports

Kenneth Scott Zuckerberg is Lead Industry Analyst, Farm Supply & Biofuels, CoBank

John Phipps: Is the World On the Verge of Running Out of Phosphates?

Wed, 01 Mar 2023 20:35:37 GMT

I was skimming through a science news website when photos of the Bou Craa mine and conveyor belt brought back a memory of touring a Moroccan phosphate mine and fertilizer plant with an ag group in 1988.

Taken from a satellite and an astronaut’s camera, they show the longest conveyor belts system in the world – about 60 miles through Western Sahara, before loading ships at the ocean. Incidentally the longest single conveyor is over 30 miles in Australia.

This manmade feature is visible from space with the naked eye, due to the while trail from phosphate dust. Western Sahara, which I thought was just a region name, is kind of a country. The UN classifies the area as a “non-self-governing territory.” It’s a basically uninhabited desert whose emptiness prompted Morocco to help itself to the massive Bou Craa deposits, ignoring any disputed boundary lines.

Morocco is sitting on 75-85% of proven global phosphate reserves. Almost all experts basically agree on this reserve share, but recoverable supplies numbers are all over the place.

I discovered financial advisors, whose business is to encourage investors, tend to be more hysterical about future phosphate shortages and higher prices and profits than independent or government scientists. As a result, you can find projections of phosphate depletion running from 50 to 300 years. These numbers, however, are based on extraction using current technology.

Maybe there is no fracking surprise for phosphate, but I suspect concerns about peak phosphate are overblown. It reminds me of the oil reserve debates of the 90’s. Morocco is the largest rock phosphate exporter by far. Typically for developing countries, however, it is far from the largest phosphate fertilizer supplier.

The Bou Craa conveyor demonstrates the problem. It was built by European countries who are under pressure now to terminate maintenance contracts to punish Morocco for seizing the mine area from Western Sahara. This could shut down the conveyor. Regardless roughly one-sixth of global phosphate rock production is carried on this belt at 2000 tons per hour, so its shutdown would be noticed. Or maybe not.

The U.S. has consistently vetoed sanctioning the Moroccan annexation of Western Sahara at the UN because of the effect on fertilizer prices Like many other ag inputs, the small number of suppliers exert considerable pricing power regardless of actual supply numbers.

Market for Meal: Morocco Holds Promise As A Key Buyer for U.S. Soybean Products

Fri, 17 Feb 2023 17:33:59 GMT

The soybean processing industry is expanding in the U.S. due to the push for green fuels, such as renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel made from soybean oil. The result of that increased crush will be an excess of soybean meal.

“We need to have an outlet for this new soybean meal to go,” says Jeff Thompson, a farmer from Colton, S.D.

CUSTOMER EXPANSION

One such outlet could be Morocco. Thompson, second vice president of the South Dakota Soybean Association (SDSA), and several other SDSA members and members of the South Dakota Soybean Research and Promotion Council recently traveled to the African country with the goal of expanding the market for soybean meal.

Morocco is already one of the largest soybean meal customers for the U.S., according to Brent Babb, regional director of Europe and Middle East/North Africa at the U.S. Soybean Export Council (USSEC).

“It’s always in the top 10 soybean importers from the U.S.,” he says. “It’s around 400,000 tons annually.”

With Morocco’s arid climate, they must import most of their feed ingredients. Because U.S. soybean meal is known for its quality, Khalid Benabdeljelil, USSEC country representative in Morocco, says the U.S. holds about 60% of soybean meal market share.

NEW FEED FOCUS

The largest feed mill in Morocco, Alf Sahel, produces 1.2 million metric tons of feed annually, with 70% used in poultry rations including for its own vertically integrated operation. General Manager Yousef Mikou says they buy based on price and quality, but also prefer U.S. meal because of its nutritional value.

“We buy amino acids because amino acids are better than crude protein,” Mikou says. “Even if the price of soybean meal in the U.S. is high, it’s better to use it because of the amino acids that they have.”

This represents a shift taking place in the global feed industry, says Jerry Schmitz, SD Soybean executive director.

“In the past, crude protein has been the bar that everybody has set,” he says. “But really proteins are made of essential amino acids, and there are specific amino acids that are important to livestock and to human development, and we have those in our soybeans.”

“Extra protein just ends up being wasted, so the amino acid profile is truly what they’re seeking, and we offer some of the very best amino acids profiles,” adds Tim Ostrem, director on the South Dakota Soybean Research and Promotion Council and farmer from Centerville, S.D.

Soybeans grown in northern regions of the Corn Belt, such as South Dakota, have higher essential amino acids, which research shows is more digestible and help livestock and poultry gain weight more efficiently.

MORE SUPPLY, MORE DEMAND

Morocco is home to 37 million people, and its population is projected to hit 46 million by 2025. The Moroccan government also wants to increase tourism to 26 million by 2030 (up from 13 million tourists in 2019), which will mean increased demand for protein.

Currently, Morocco annually produces 3.5 million dairy and beef cattle, 21 million sheep and goats and 413 million chickens and turkeys, according to USSEC.

“Poultry production is the most dynamic element of animal production in Morocco,” says USSEC’s Benabdeljelil. “Over 55% of their meat consumption is poultry.”

By 2025, protein production in Morocco is projected to grow by 20%.

Poultry and livestock production is still 90% small farmers who have just a few head and sell locally. However, demand shifts are occurring, says David Struck, South Dakota Soybean Research and Promotion Council vice chairman and farmer from Wolsey, S.D.

“The younger people have a tendency to want to buy processed chicken from supermarkets, where the older generation still wants to buy from the wet market, which is mostly supplied by the small individual farmers,” he says.

These positive market factors are creating great potential for U.S. soybean exports to Morocco.

Michelle Rook uses her South Dakota rural roots to provide farmers with the information they need to drive the business of agriculture.

Destination Morocco: With Expanding U.S. Soybean Processing Industry it's a Growth Market for Meal

Mon, 13 Feb 2023 16:24:17 GMT

The soybean processing industry is expanding in the United States due to the push for green fuels like renewable diesel and Sustainable Aviation Fuel made from soybean oil. The result of the increased crush will be an excess of soybean meal. South Dakota soybean farmers are taking the lead in developing new markets for that meal and leadership of the South Dakota Soybean Research and Promotion Council and South Dakota Soybean Association conducted a recent trade mission to Morocco, Africa.

“There will be a surplus of soybean meal because we’re crushing for oil, you have to find a way to get rid of it.” says Mike McCranie, who farms near Claremont, SD. A new plant is planned for Mitchell and McCranie says it will be great for the state, but leaves them with two options for the meal, either grow livestock production or export it. Colton, SD farmer Jeff Thompson says they believe it’s time to be proactive, “So coming here having a presence gives us the opportunities to hopefully make some sales in the future.”

Morocco is already one of the largest soybean meal customers for the U.S. Brent Babb, Regional Director of Europe and Middle East/North Africa at the U.S. Soybean Export Council (USSEC) says, “It’s always in the top 10 of our soybean importers from the U.S. It’s usually around 400,000 tons annually.” Khalid Benabdeljelil, with USSECin Morocco says, “We have been using U.S. soybean meal. A product that is known for its quality, for reliability, for stable quality and constant quality over time. And market share is about 60% and has been 60% over the last five or six years.”

Moroccan feed customers like U.S. soybean meal because it is more consistent than South American product. According to Yasser Amri, Technical Director, with Societe Nouvelle Eddik. “The soybean meal that comes from Argentina sometimes they have a problem with cooking and digestibility. So, we prefer to work with U.S. soybean meal.”

Morocco’s largest feed mill, Alf Sahel, produces 1.2 million metric tons of feed annually, with 70% used in poultry rations. They buy based on price and quality and prefer U.S. meal because of its nutritional value. General Manager Yousef Mikou says, “Right here we buy amino acids. Amino acids is better than crude protein. Even if the price of soybean meal of USA is high it’s better to use it because of the amino acids that they have.”

This represents a shift taking place in the global feed industry. Jerry Schmitz, SD Soybean executive director, says it’s a big selling point for northern states like South Dakota that grow soybeans that are higher in essential amino acids. “In the past protein has been the bar that everybody has set but really proteins are made of essential amino acids and there are specific amino acids that are important to livestock and to human development and South Dakota, North Dakota, Iowa and Nebraska have those essential amino acids in great quantity.”

Research shows EAAs are more digestible and help livestock and poultry gain more efficiently. Tim Ostrem, Centerville, SD farmer states, “Extra protein just ends up being wasted so the amino acid profile is truly what they’re seeking, and we offer some of the very best amino acids profiles that there are.”

Mikuo says they also watch the currency exchange and are relieved the U.S. dollar backed off 20-year highs to make imports more affordable. However, Babb says as the U.S. ramps up meal production prices may be more attractive for countries like Morocco. He says, “We expect with larger production of meal, we’ll have a little bit lower price. You add in quality and sustainability, and we’ve got to have a lot of good markets for that U.S. meal.”