Mississippi River

The Key to Reversing Low River Levels and Shoring Up Critical Infrastructure

Fri, 03 Oct 2025 18:55:11 GMT

Mississippi River levels are low this fall season—for the third year in a row.

“The timing couldn’t be worse,” says Jon Davis, chief meteorologist at Everstream Analytics. “October is a critical month for barge transportation in the Mississippi River Basin. This is especially the case in the agricultural sector as crops are harvested in the Midwest and transported mainly by barge to New Orleans.”

He says this year’s river levels mimic 2024 conditions. Barge restrictions were put in place in September, and currently, the low-water restrictions for southbound vessels on the Lower Mississippi River from the U.S. Coast Guard include:

• Cairo, Ill., to Lake Providence, La., MM 869-483: Drafts no greater than 10'6" and barges no more than six wide.

• Lake Providence, La., to the Gulf of Mexico, MM 483-303: Drafts no greater than 11' and barges no more than six wide.

“August was a very dry month in the Central and Eastern Corn Belt and in the Delta, and in mid- to late August, we began to see that response in the river system overall. That was the time frame we began to watch things very closely,” Davis says. “Based on September being very dry, it looked like the overall decline in river levels was going to continue and we’re going to get into a bit more of a restrictive environment, which would certainly impact logistics on the river system.”

The weather patterns of the past seven weeks accelerated river level issues.

“The combination of recent warmth and long-term dryness has led to this decline in river levels, and if we look at the river levels now compared with the last 10 years, we’re at some of the lowest levels we’ve seen,” Davis adds.

Ohio River at Cairo, Ill. Oct 1, 2025

(USGS)

Mississippi River at Dubuque, Iowa on Oct. 1

(USGS)

Davis says there’s not much recharge for the river in the forecast — and the greatest source for getting levels back up is unfortunately a tropical system, such as a hurricane.

Mississippi River at Memphis, TN on Oct. 1

(USGS)

Mississippi River at New Orleans on Oct. 1

(USGS)

“That’s what helped last year—the storms that developed in October,” he says.

Looking at the forecast, the next seven to 10 days doesn’t show much promise for precipitation along the Mississippi River Valley or the Ohio River Valley, which notably feeds the lower Mississippi. However, the end of October could turn wetter, which might slow the finish of harvest but could recharge the vital artery in our inland waterways.

Be Prepared: Intense Storm Cluster With 75+ MPH Winds Working Through Upper Midwest Monday Evening

Mon, 28 Jul 2025 19:57:58 GMT

A powerful cluster of storms is forming in the Upper Midwest with a chance for crop-damaging winds and potential tornados in central South and North Dakota as well as southwestern Minnesota, warns The National Weather Service and meteorologist Bret Walts with BAMWX.com.

Walts expects the cluster will release a lot of wind energy this afternoon and this evening as it gathers steam moving east through the upper Great Plains. It could even intensify into a rare derecho storm with hurricane force winds.

UPDATE: The Weather Channel is now reporting a “derecho is likely to strike the Northern Plains.”

“We’ve got a stronger (atmospheric) jet stream moving in with a lot of instability in place still with the heat and humidity across parts of Iowa, Nebraska, South Dakota and Minnesota,” he says.

Walts is paying close attention to how quickly the individual storm cells merge together. He says the faster that formation occurs the more intense the storm has the potential to become.

7/28/25: Intense severe storms are expected to form this afternoon in SD and spread southeastward into MN and IA through tonight. Swaths of damaging winds, potentially 75-90 mph, are the main concern. Be prepared to take action if watches and warnings are issued for your area. pic.twitter.com/wf2rH7eUdD
— NWS Storm Prediction Center (@NWSSPC) July 28, 2025

Walts forecasts the timing as 3 p.m. to 4 p.m. CT for parts of South and North Dakota, while 7 p.m. to 11 p.m. would be the time frame for the most intense winds in northwest Iowa and southwest Minnesota.

“If that initial cell to the north shoots out of a lot of boundaries it could lead to the setup becoming a little bit messier,” Walts says. “We’ll know by five or six o’clock that if this thing is not getting organized, then we have an idea it is not going to be that intense. But I don’t anticipate that happening because the environment is very, very unstable and there’s a lot of wind energy. That combination this time of the year normally is not a good thing.”

NOAA says it expects these storms will move very quickly, and it is important to take action when warnings are issued locally. Do not wait until you see or hear signs of a strong storm because by that time it might be too late.

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Goodbye, La Niña? Eric Snodgrass Dissects What the Shift Means for Weather This Spring and Summer

Fri, 14 Mar 2025 21:12:49 GMT

La Niña is weakening, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) expects neutral conditions to develop in the next month . But even with La Niña fading, meteorologists are still concerned about drought this spring and summer.

NOAA this week said forecasters expect ENSO-neutral conditions to develop in the next month and persist through the Northern Hemisphere’s summer. According to NOAA, La Niña’s signature is cooler-than-average surface water in the east-central tropical Pacific, stronger-than-average trade winds, and drier conditions over the central Pacific.

ENSO-neutral means conditions could be close to average, but Eric Snodgrass, Nutrien’s principal atmospheric scientist, says that doesn’t mean the weather will be normal this spring and summer.

“I do expect changes,” Snodgrass says. “Think about it like this: The previous winter was an El Niño winter, and it was very mild and very wet. So, we got into spring ’24 with tons of moisture. I mean, Iowa, Minnesota and South Dakota flooded out. Then we had this incredibly dry fall as the La Niña began, and it reached a peak twice. It actually hit a peak in December, and then a secondary peak about a month later at the end of January. It’s been fading ever since. The big question is, as we go into neutral conditions for this upcoming growing season, is it going to be one that paints a picture of precipitation extremes? Did it leave us with any sort of kind of problems from winter that are carrying over?”

Snodgrass says the severe weather outbreaks on Friday, that brought high winds, dust storms and wildfire warnings across the Plains, is a reminder how dry it is in the Southwest.

“We’ve got major pockets of the country that are still dealing with some pretty big drought conditions. It is fading, and that is a signal we have to pay attention to,” Snodgrass says.

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey is also concerned about what impact the shifting pattern will have on farmers this spring. But it’s not just the dryness. It’s also the fact areas are getting inundated with rains that could pose problems.

“With this stormy weather pattern in place, that is going to create some difficulty for spring field work in some areas. It looks like the primary storm track may be through parts of the middle of the country extending into the lower Midwest and eventually the interior northeast. That is one area where we already have fairly wet conditions,” Rippey says.

How sea surface temperatures in the Niño-3.4 region of the tropical Pacific changed over the course of all La Niña events since 1950 (gray lines) and 2024-25 (black line). This shows the traditional calculation for Niño-3.4, the monthly temperature compared to the most recent 30-year average (1991–2020 for the 2024 line). By this measure, the La Niña threshold was crossed in December 2024, but La Niña remains weak.

(NOAA)

La Niñas and El Niños Are Strongest in the Winter
Snodgrass points out La Niñas and El Niños are always strongest in Northern Hemisphere’s winter, which means they fade in spring and summer.

While La Niña-like conditions were a trademark in late fall, we didn’t reach the official definition of La Niña until January.

“The atmosphere way back in November was already treating our winter timeframe like a La Niña,” Snodgrass says. So, we were getting the influences of it as it comes in and goes out. And now the question is, what’s it going to do?”

February 2025 sea surface temperature compared to the 1985-1993 average. The surface of the east-central tropical Pacific is slightly below average temperature, but much of the global ocean remains warmer than average.

(NOAA )

“This is a great map to look at,” Snodgrass says, referencing the map above. “If you focus right in the middle, you see the large area of the cooler colors. Our line is now shifting to the central and West Pacific and behind it over by South America. All of the warmer water is beginning to emerge. And that’s what’s killing it because there’s a trade wind across that area from the east to the west. We’re going to watch this fade carefully during the spring. But the question is: Do we get winter’s leftovers?”

What Fueled the Dryness This Winter?
During the winter, Snodgrass points out there was no subtropical jet. That’s what fueled drought in the Southwest and Northwest.

“I’m actually kind of worried about the beginning of April having another shot at cold air after what we’ve been experiencing in March, which has been so very, very mild. Then you say, well, we’ve had so much dry air in place. Are we still worried about more dry air coming back? To be honest, these big storm systems coming through the central U.S., if we could get four, maybe five more of those by early April, we’re going to hate it. It’s nasty weather. It’s not fun, and it’s dangerous, but it returns moisture. That could be part of the mix of things, including the fading of La Niña that could help bring us away from these major early season drought risk scenarios.”

55% of corn production, 46% of soybean production, 33% of the cotton growing area and 27% of the winter wheat production are currently experiencing drought.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

Growing Drought Concerns
What if it doesn’t? What if we don’t see more of this severe weather hit the Southwest and Plains, and moisture remains absent as we get into the height of spring? Well, the area will enter into the height of the growing season dry and reduce their chances of seeing moisture this summer.

“That’s a box we check every spring,” Snodgrass says. “If the drought monitor saw a reduction in drought over winter, then that gives us a different look for spring. But what we see here is two-thirds of the country in some stage of drought, including the abnormally dry category. But it’s the epicenters of drought that are so concerning. Look at the Western Corn Belt. Look at the Southwest. We just wonder if that funnels into the Mississippi Valley as we go forward.”

At the same time some areas are seeing drought, Kentucky, southern Indiana, southern Illinois, Tennessee, Arkansas and the boot heel of Missouri are all experiencing heavy rains and flooding.

“By May 11, I want to know what the drought monitor map looks like. If it looks no different, then I’m going to be sounding alarms going into summer with concerns this will start to creep and move because as soon as we get into the summer weather, all we get is convective storms pop off. And what do they do? They just locally deliver rain - not big broad swaths of it,” Snodgrass says.

Tale of Two Weather Scenarios
He says the forecast leading up to May 11 is a tale of two weather patterns, with the Mississippi River being the dividing line for moisture.

“If you are along it and east of it, I think we’re going to have tight windows to plant. You could include a little bit more of Missouri, Iowa and Minnesota in that as well,” Snodgrass says. “I think we’re going to see repeated storm systems. The best moisture is east. It keeps avoiding that southern plains area.”

What to Watch: Where the Storm Chasers End Up
Snodgrass says if storm chasers are busying chasing severe weather across the Ohio Valley, the mid-south and the southeast, but not in Kansas and the Plains, that’s a key indicator there’s a problem with the moisture getting back into the plains.

“If it’s not there by the time we start June, it’s very difficult to rely on the atmosphere to return it once you get into the summer months if you live in the central plains, which is where they could build from,” he adds.

To watch the complete discussion with Snodgrass, visit Farm Journal TV and take advantage of the free trial.

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Hope For Drought-Stricken Land? Your Winter Weather Outlook

Mon, 28 Oct 2024 19:57:18 GMT

What is it you remember from last year’s winter? Maybe it was when the wind chill in Kansas City brought temperatures down to -30°F and Patrick Mahomes’ helmet shattered in the middle of a playoff game. A more accurate representation of the season, though, is probably Wisconsin’s snowmobile industry dubbing the season a “lost winter” from the lack of snowfall.

Regardless of how we remember it, last year’s winter was incredibly mild, with temperatures well above normal and snowfall almost nonexistent. But according to Eric Snodgrass, senior science fellow at Nutrien Ag Solutions, the consensus is that the months ahead are going to look a lot different.

“We didn’t really have a winter last year,” Snodgrass says. “This year, we have a better chance of a storm track coming through the “I” states and out through the Ohio Valley toward the northeast. So, the forecast is a little wetter there with periods of colder air. It doesn’t mean it will get cold, stay cold and not stop snowing, but it’s certainly going to be different than a year ago.”

That’s because this winter brings about a 75% chance for La Niña to develop, which is when the trade winds across the equatorial Pacific are strong. With La Niña in the forecast, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is predicting wet conditions in the north and dry, warm weather in the south.

The 2024-2025 U.S. Winter Outlook map for temperature shows the greatest chances for cooler-than-average conditions in the Pacific Northwest of the U.S.

(NOAA)

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey says La Niña can also bring chances for extreme cold events.

“Not every La Niña is like this, but I will say two prime examples were in 1989 and 2021 — that latter outbreak was when Texas pretty much lost power,” Rippey says.

Drought Dangers
With dry conditions in the forecast, Snodgrass says the big story this winter will be whether or not there will be enough moisture to work against the drought that has been building.

“The best winters for agriculture are the ones we hate and remember as being terrible — we get good, hard freezes and plenty of moisture comes in,” Snodgrass says. “If we don’t see that, we get into a situation where we become very dependent on spring rains and may have a conversation about 2025 drought risk.”

The 2024-2025 U.S. Winter Outlook map for precipitation shows wetter-than-average conditions are most likely across the Great Lakes region of the U.S.. Drier-than-average conditions are forecast for parts of the U.S. Gulf Coast.

(NOAA)

Snodgrass explains drought is often a multiseason effect, and Rippey says this one has been building since June.

“There’s been a four-fold increase in drought to now affecting about 50% of the country,” Rippey says. “That was great for summer crops, dry down and harvesting, but now the problem is what will happen with winter wheat, cover crops, pastures and range land.”

While much of the north will have the opportunity for relief from this growing drought, that likely won’t be the case in the south.

“We are expecting a generally warmer- and drier-than-normal winter across the entire southern tier of the United States, reaching all the way from Southern California to the middle and southern Atlantic coast. That does include important winter wheat production areas into the Southern Great Plains,” Rippey says. “There’s not much reserve right now in terms of soil moisture, and this could amplify already existing dry conditions.”

That brings concern for river transportation as the bump in water levels that came from Hurricanes Milton and Helene has worked its way through the system now.

“Historically, those levels tend to bottom out around January at the latest,” Rippey says. “We’re probably talking about a few more months of low water issues, and then you start to turn a corner around February because plants don’t use as much water during the winter.”

Timing Will Be Everything
Because winter is technically the country’s dry season, it won’t be easy to break drought in the months ahead. For the wet forecast in the north to make a difference, Rippey says it will all come down to timing.

“It’s important to start getting moisture before it gets too cold,” Rippey explains. “When you go into a cool season like this with limited soil moisture, if the cold air comes in too quickly, you freeze the soils before you get moisture, which can limit the absorption of rain and snow into those soils.”

The timing of when La Niña really starts to take effect will be important as well.

“December is going to be the month where we test if this La Niña really has what it takes to give us the things we expect,” Snodgrass says. “Normally, La Niñas peak around Christmas, and then they start to fade. If we miss that opportunity, we will watch all of the sub-seasonal things and hope they can deliver good winter weather to knock out the risk of drought going into 2025.”

But even with a few “drought risk” boxes being checked, it’s still too soon to speculate or worry about what next year’s growing season will look like.

“2022 had major fall drought, and then what happened? It rained in July, didn’t get terribly hot, and we had a decent crop. Indiana had one of its best crops ever in 2023, even though it was so dry in spring,” Snodgrass says. “We have to remember that the crop has many ways by which to stay alive and do well, and we’ve engineered that seed to be better performing even when there is some stress. We can’t make big, broad assumptions that 2025 is going to be a year of substantial drought risk that destroys yield.”

How Drought's Grip on the Mississippi River is Already Costing Farmers

Fri, 25 Oct 2024 14:40:27 GMT

For the third consecutive year, historically low water levels on the lower Mississippi River are impacting the supply chain. While it isn’t translating into lost export business for the U.S., it’s having a negative impact on basis levels as higher transportation costs are passed on to farmers in the form of lower cash prices.

According to Pro Farmer , a lack of rain has led to reduced barge draft and tow sizes along the Mississippi river system, causing delays and groundings near Hickman, Ky., according to USDA’s Grain Transportation Report.

Pro Farmer reports grain transport along the river has fallen below last year’s levels and the seasonal average.

The Drought Picture Plaguing the Corn Belt

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows just under 50% of the country is experiencing moderate to exceptional drought.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows just under 50% of the country is experiencing moderate to exceptional drought. Sixteen states are seeing extreme drought and five states are experiencing exceptional drought.

Most of the increases in drought over the past week took place in the Eastern Plains, Midwest and South.

Precip amounts

(National Weather Service )

Impact of Lower Mississippi River on Soybeans

At St. Louis, water levels rebounded with ample rain during spring and early summer, but both declined significantly past mid-July. The same pattern followed at Memphis with the exception of a short-lived uptick in water levels due to Hurricane Helene.

“It did result in a pretty dramatic 15-foot-plus spike in a short period of time. But now we’re basically back where we were prior to the hurricane with low water levels resuming. The concern is that it impacts barge transportation,” says Mike Steenhoek, executive director, Soy Transportation Coalition.

Mississippi River Levels

(AgDay)

How Farmers Bear the Cost

Steenhoek says barge restrictions are once again lowering the number of barges in tow and how heavy barges can be loaded.

“Every foot of reduced water depth or draft is the equivalent of loading 7,000 fewer bushels of soybeans on an individual barge,” he adds. “You can see an overall reduction of 10% to 15% on the modest end of the spectrum all the way up to 30% to 40% reduction, which is really considerable.”

In turn, that raises barge freight rates and cash basis takes the hit.

“The shippers tend to not absorb that themselves. What typically happens is those costs are passed on to the farmer in the form of a lower price at that point of delivery or a more negative or wide basis,” Steenhoek says.

The timing couldn’t be worse for soybeans as it’s coming during harvest season and the peak export window.

“You’ve got to move the volume because South America is going to be a viable supply option come the first of the year or certainly not long after that,” says Alan Brugler of Brugler Marketing. “This is not ideal. Fortunately, the Panama Canal is in better condition than it was a year ago, so that’s one thing that’s different.”

However, more soybean exports will shift to the rail system to move through the Pacific Northwest, thus raising rail costs, which are also passed onto the farmer.

New Supply Chain Setbacks: Mississippi River Levels Hit All-Time Low

Tue, 18 Oct 2022 23:12:16 GMT

Levels of the Mississippi River in Memphis have just hit a new all-time low record of -10.77 feet. Meanwhile, companies are not loading as much cargo onto ships — so they can travel safely and not bottom out — while fewer barges are included in each tow.

According to the American Commercial Barge Line , the industry has agreed to a 25-barge tow max size, which translates into around a 17-38% reduction in capacity.

Dredging by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has been helpful to keep the traffic flowing, but new challenging spots can surface any day.

“While the public and media generally understand that our economy depends upon viable international ocean shipping, trucking, and rail transportation, the essential role of our inland waterways is often overlooked,” said Peter Friedmann of the Agriculture Transportation Coalition . “Our members depend upon adequate water levels in the Mississippi River system, to reach domestic and international export markets. The low water disruption of the supply chain will be felt not only by our U.S. producers of food, farm, and fiber but also by U.S. and international consumers as well.”

More on river level impacts:

How Low Will it Go? Harvest Barge Traffic Slows Due to Low River Levels
Low Mississippi Water Levels a Growing Concern for U.S. Exports and Basis Levels at and After Harvest