MARKETS

Xi-Trump Summit May Yield Farm Deal, But China Has Limited Soybean Appetite

Tue, 12 May 2026 19:00:21 GMT

China and the United States may reach a farm deal at their summit this week that expands Beijing’s purchases of grains and meat, but market watchers said they did not expect major new soybean purchases beyond what was agreed in a deal last October.

Agriculture is among the less-contentious areas of the bilateral relationship, but the final shape of any deliverables from the May 14-15 summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping remains uncertain just days out, officials, traders and analysts said.

The White House is seeking bigger commitments from Beijing on soybean and other agricultural purchases, said a person familiar with the talks.

“They know it’s something that they need. They know it’s something we want to sell. So, whether it’s at the trip or shortly thereafter is to be seen,” said a senior U.S. official who briefed reporters on the trip, without specifying any products.

More than a dozen CEOs and top executives , including Brian Sikes, chair of U.S. grain trader Cargill, will join Trump on his visit, according to a White House official.

However, traders and analysts said any deal is likely to be limited by what they see as Beijing’s unwillingness to buy more soybeans, the biggest-ticket crop, beyond a commitment made last October , given weak demand and cheap alternatives from Brazil.

Instead, markets are looking for new deals for corn, sorghum and milling wheat as well as beef and poultry, some of which was hinted at during high-level talks in March.

“There’s still some space to strike purchase deals for other major U.S. exports. That could take the form of volume purchase deals for key products like corn and sorghum,” said Even Rogers Pay, director at Beijing-based consultancy Trivium China.

In 2024, before Trump returned to office, China bought roughly $4.5 billion of those products, a sum dwarfed by $12 billion in soybeans.

China’s Ministry of Commerce and Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Soybean Status Quo

China has dramatically scaled back its reliance on U.S. farm goods since Trump’s first term, sourcing roughly 20% of its soybeans from the U.S. in 2024, the year before he returned to office, down from 41% in 2016.

Last year, China bought just 15% of its soybeans from the U.S.

Markets are awaiting clarity on how China will fulfil last year’s commitment to buy 25 million metric tons of soybeans annually until 2028, which would be the most since 2022.

“China hasn’t ever officially confirmed the details of the agreement. It’s also not clear whether the targets apply to calendar years or crop years,” said Pay.

Any confirmation of renewed Chinese demand for U.S. soybeans would likely lift Chicago soybean Sv1 prices, which are already near two-month highs, partly on expectations China will step up purchases.

“When President Trump and Xi meet, we’d be thrilled to see additional purchases from China that would put us closer to the typical amount of exports in a typical year,” said Virginia Houston, director of government affairs for the American Soybean Association, declining to specify a target volume.

(Reporting by Ella Cao, Lewis Jackson and Trevor Hunnicutt in Beijing, Naveen Thukral in Singapore and Heather Schlitz in Chicago; Editing by Sonali Paul)

Farm Alarm: 8,000-acre Grower Considers Cuts, Doubts Midwest Corn-Soybean Monolith

Tue, 20 Jan 2026 14:48:16 GMT

Time to pull the handbrake. In November 2025, Ron Robbins placed 8,000 acres of farmland on the scales, spurred by two successive years of financial strain. He dropped grading categories atop his corn and soybean acres for a tale-of-the-tape judgement. Keep, improve, or cull.

“Call it a crossroads or breaking point, but traditional row crop farms are in serious trouble, and I believe the agriculture industry has gotten complacent,” Robbins says. “If you don’t step back now and take a detailed look at your acres, it could be a terribly costly mistake that I might call blind ambition.”

Nailing Numbers
In 2025, Robbins’ end-of-year crop inventory value was $1.3 million less than his end-of-year value in 2023. “We had good yields and good prices in 2023. We had decent yields and horrible prices in 2024. We had terribly challenging weather, horrible yields, and horrible prices in 2025.”

“The crop math is extremely difficult, and then who’s to say things will get better, stay the same, or get worse? After this past season in 2025, I wasn’t going to put my head in the sand and hope. It was time for a hard look at each farm, each field, our process, and how we can improve going into 2026 and beyond.”

“We now have a concrete framework to justify cutting acres if needed,” Robbins says. “It’s preparation regardless of what happens next year.”

(Photo by Robbins Grain & North Dairy Harbor)

A skip from the east end of Lake Ontario, Robbins Grain & North Dairy Harbor is tucked in the relative flats of the Lake Plain region in Jefferson County, New York. The overall operation includes 1,600 dairy cows, trucking, ag tourism, and 8,000 acres of corn silage, corn grain, soybeans, wheat, and hay.

Scattered across a 20-mile radius from his main headquarters, Robbins’ field sizes are small, averaging 40-50 acres, and soil diversity is extremely diverse, ranging from well-drained loamy limestone to heavy clay. Despite diminutive size, it’s not unusual for a single field to contain four distinct soil types—contributing to a complicated management dance.

“We’ve got feed hitting blacktop. We’ve got manure hitting blacktop. We’ve got labor hitting blacktop. It’s expensive, period, and the tiniest factors are big deals,” says Robbins. “Spread manure; plant crops; and harvest hay, all at the same time. You better have the numbers nailed down.”

As he speaks, in January 2026, unharvested 2025 corn remains in many New York State fields. “Because of very late planting last spring and a very dry summer, there’s 15-20% of grain corn acres still standing that basically never fully matured”. It speaks to the crucial need to be timely at planting. Just one more reason we’ve implemented a grading scale. Fortunately, ours was all harvested timely.”

Time to call balls and strikes.

Adios to Guesswork
In November 2025, Robbins and his team gathered around an HQ table and shared a nine-course meal of farm data.

He placed acreage into four five-year-average planting date categories, alongside five-year-average yields: early, mid-early, mid-late and late. “We began considering each piece based on fertility, distance, and whether issues could be fixed with tile, lime, manure, or something else.”

First, Robbins noted 1,000 acres of top-drawer, highest-yielding ground—the earliest fields planted year-in and year-out, regardless of weather, between April 25 to May 5.

Scattered across a 20-mile radius from his main headquarters, Robbins’ field sizes are small, averaging 40-50 acres.

(Photo by Robbins Grain & North Dairy Harbor)

Second, he tagged 1,500 mid-early acres—accessible for planting and manure spreading in most years, May 5 to May 15.

Third, he identified 1,500 mid-late corn and soybean acres that generally are planted between May 15 and May 25, along with 1,500 acres of hay ground that must be harvested for hay silage in this same time frame.

Fourth, the late bunch, i.e., all acres planted after May 25, typically poorly-drained and the furthest away from the main farm. “These are acres we will focus on for improvements where possible, and if not possible, we’ll seed them to a grass hay crop for heifer forage or consider dropping the land.”

The result?

He’ll fallow 400 acres in 2026, designating it for improvements, including pushing back brush rows and tree lines, tile drainage, ditch cleaning, heavy manure applications, and planting fall ryegrass or wheat or triticale.

Additionally, of approximately 4,700 total corn and soybean acres, he’ll shift 500 (heavy clay soil) from soybeans to corn. “We are trying to figure out why our heavy clay soils struggle to produce decent soybean yields, but seem to produce strong corn yields each year.”

“We now have a plan in place and we can match corn variety to acres better than ever. I don’t want my employees guessing about anything. We’ve got seed varieties designated for each category. For example, it’ll be 98-day to 102-day corn in the early category. If we get to May 5 and those acres aren’t planted, we move 94-day to 98-day corn. Again, no guessing.”

“Putting our acreage in these classifications is our first move, and we’ll make tighter adjustments as we go along,” Robbins continues. “One thing we won’t do is increase our acres because we’re maxed out. Maybe there’s nothing worse than taking on land you can’t manage properly. However, we now have a concrete framework to justify cutting acres if needed. It’s preparation regardless of what happens next year.”

(For more on producers considering acreage cuts, see: Farmland Shock: Georgia Grower Drops 3,000 Acres, Warns of Unplanted Ground in 2026 )

“We’re categorizing acres according to data,” Robbins adds. “All farms have tons of data, and so much of it goes unused, but right now row crop profitability is beyond tough, and we’re done with leaving our data untouched. The details are what matter. Who’s to say this downturn in the row crop economy won’t continue?”

Translated: Robbins is acting now in case the row crop rut becomes agriculture’s new normal.

Through a Glass Darkly
Good, bad, and ugly, fourth-generation Robbins doesn’t mince words.

“I’m very worried about the future of row crop agriculture, particularly out in the Midwest. For guys married to corn and soybeans, without diversity otherwise, that means all your eggs are in one basket. For the past several decades, the blueprint on many of those operations has been a focus on growth and getting bigger, but that may have meant losing sight of the true picture. Bigger is only better if timeliness and profitability make sense.”

“Call it a crossroads or breaking point, but traditional row crop farms are in serious trouble, and I believe the agriculture industry has gotten complacent,” Robbins says.

(Photo by Robbins Grain & North Dairy Harbor)

“Growth should mean a lot of things besides buying equipment or adding land,” Robbins notes. “It should equally mean adding a side business, increasing efficiency, improving profitability and, maybe most importantly, learning from mistakes by keeping your head up and looking at what’s coming or how things are changing.”

“Personally, I believe row crops are at a fork in the road,” Robbins concludes. “Every single farmer out there has a different management situation on their land, but my encouragement is to step back, take a hard look, analyze your acres in a systematic way like you’ve never done before, and determine what is best for long-term profitability, no matter how difficult the choices. Assume nothing, because the future of farming is very tough to see right now.”

For more from Chris Bennett (@ChrisBennettMS or cbennett@farmjournal.com or 662-592-1106), see:

Farmland Shock: Georgia Grower Drops 3,000 Acres, Warns of Unplanted Ground in 2026

Sticky Fingers: USDA Fraudster Steals $200M in Stunning Scam

Government Threatens Seizure of 85-Year-Old’s Entire Farm for Irrigating Wrong Field

Frontier Justice: Cowboy Posse Corners Deer Poacher in Buck-Wild Bust

Water Witch Keeps Dowsing Tradition Alive on Nebraska Farmland

Family Farm Wins Historic Case After Feds Violate Constitution and Ruin Business

County Shuts Down 15-Yr-Old’s Bait Stand on Family Farm, Threatens Daily Fines

Corn and Cocaine: Roger Reaves and the Most Incredible Farm Story Never Told

How the Deep State Tried, and Failed, to Crush an American Farmer

Game of Horns: Iowa Poacher’s Antler Addiction Leads to Historic Bust

Ghost Cattle: $650M Ponzi Rocks Livestock Industry, Money Still Missing

Farmland Shock: Georgia Grower Drops 3,000 Acres, Warns of Unplanted Ground in 2026

Mon, 05 Jan 2026 14:04:17 GMT

How deep is the farm crisis? Adios to acreage.

In November 2025, Alex Harrell, among the most highly reputed producers in the U.S., dropped an old-school grading scale, A to F, across his 6,000-acre operation and slashed almost half his ground, notifying 12 landlords in a three-week window. “I can’t speak to the rest of the country, but around here, generational growers are either cutting back, quitting, falling into Chapter 12, or grasping at straws.”

Spurred by crippling inputs, Harrell’s acreage drop is an alarming indication of an agriculture economy in dire straits. “There will be significant acres in my area that won’t be planted next year,” he says. “I’m seeing it with my own eyes in real time.”

“People don’t realize there was ground here in 2025 that didn’t get planted, but you can already see what’s developing for 2026. Guys are walking away.”

Down Comes the Ax
No fat left to trim. Nothing to burn but muscle. No way to outyield cold math.

“Something has to give when you go three years and more just spinning your wheels on net profit,” Harrell, 36, explains. “The numbers aren’t complicated. When fertilizer, chemical, and machinery costs go up 300% over a short span of time, everything is upside down, especially when commodities go in the tank.”

In 2025, Harrell grew 6,000 acres of corn, soybeans, cotton, and wheat in southwest Georgia’s Lee County. “Breaking even is bad enough in farming, but we’re all way below that around here. We are literally paying to farm—not getting paid to farm. Every year, it costs more to farm input-wise, and unless something changes with these retailers, I don’t see things changing. Based on that, I took a long look at my operation.”

“We’ve now got guys with all their land and equity burned up, and we’re seeing Chapter 12 bankruptcies every day,” Harrell says.

(Photo by Chris Bennett)

But what to do when there’s nothing left to cut on the farm? Cut the farm itself.

In November 2025, Harrell put his leased acreage under the microscope, under a seven-category lens subject to grades A through F:

1. How many miles away was the land?

2. How productive is the soil?

3. What was the water source (pond, creek, or well)?

4. How was irrigation powered (electric or diesel)?

5. On base acres, how productive was the farm related to PLC and ARC?

6. How did wildlife depredation factor for deer and wild pigs (and whether landowners allowed for shooting with deer permits)?

7. How much was rent?

Harrell axed any piece of ground that scored C through F in more than two categories. The reduction totaled 45% of his crop ground.

“It’s pretty straightforward. The only way I could figure out to make things work was to break down those farms individually and grade them on a scale. Then I dropped the ones that didn’t pass—and that included the very first irrigated farm I ever rented, and ground we’ve put 16, 17 crops on that I’ve been working for years. It was time to turn them loose. Like I said, that’s how bad the farm economy is around here. In some ways, I think the worst part is still to come, but people don’t realize that yet.”

No Bidding War
Harrell’s acreage chop may go deeper. “I’ve still got considerations to make on some farms. I’ve still got ground flirting on the line. I may have to make more calls to landlords.”

“We can grow most any variety of crop in the world right here,” Harrell describes, “but we’re at the point of seeing what happens when none of them will turn a profit due to the crazy input prices.”

(Photo by Chris Bennett)

Rent on irrigated ground in Harrell’s region typically runs $275-330 per acre. How did his landlords react when he dropped acres?

“I had one that offered to drop rent a little bit, but I understand because they’re used to having 10 guys sitting there waiting to rent that land. In my opinion, I don’t think they understand the shifting dynamic of the farm economy. This time, people are not going to be beating their doors down. I’m not saying their particular acres won’t get rented, but there’s definitely not going to be a bidding war.”

“Even last year in 2025, there was irrigated land down here that didn’t get worked. In 2026, there’ll be even more. I can’t speak for anyplace else in the U.S., but in southwest Georgia, this is what we’re seeing in farmland, especially marginal ground. It’s already happening.

Yield Forfeit
Prior to Harrell’s acreage slash, his operation stretched 21 miles east, 30 miles west, 15 miles north, and 15 miles south.

“In some ways, I think the worst part is still to come, but people don’t realize that yet.”

(Photo by Chris Bennett)

“I tightened the circle. I think my furthest farm is only going to be about 10 miles from me now. When you look at fuel, labor, time, and insurance involved in running up and down the road, that kills you whenever you put a tractor on a highway.

“Next, I’ve got to consider equipment and labor cuts to drop our insurance at least a little, at the same time keeping my eye on the fine line where I’ve got to keep enough acres to spread equipment over.”

Getting bigger and going longer is out—at least for Harrell. “Yeah, that’s how I used to think: Just go across more acres, make inputs cost less, and that’ll solve everything. Not anymore. What people come to see is that spreading too far in the Southeast means that nine times outta ten, you forfeit yield, because there’s no way to look after your crops like they need.”

Translated: Irrigation, weed control, repeated fungicide applications, labor logistics, and host of other management practices create a never-ending game of catch-up.

“There are Midwest farmers out there on big, big acres that do a fantastic job, but in the Southeast, we can’t get behind a single day on irrigation, or we lose yield,” Harrell notes. “Then factor in all the other aspects people don’t think about—like wildlife damage from deer and hogs, and countless spray trips across the field—and things get really complicated. I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to say a 15,000-acre operation in the Midwest compares to a 5,000-acre in the Southeast as far as demand on a farmer. That doesn’t mean anybody is better or worse, but it sure means things are very different.”

Walking Away
On Aug. 13, 2024, Alex Harrell fired the soybean shot heard round the farm world with a bin-busting 218.28 bushels per acre, shattering his own world record of 206.79 bushels set in 2023. Back to back, he grew the highest yielding soybeans in history.

“People don’t realize there was ground here in 2025 that didn’t get planted, but you can already see what’s developing for 2026. Guys are walking away.”

(Photo courtesy of Harrell Farms)

Harrell has a tight grasp on agronomics, crop management, and bottom-line financials. The extreme rub endured by growers over successive years is down to the bone, he warns.

“We can grow most any variety of crop in the world right here, but we’re at the point of seeing what happens when none of them will turn a profit due to the crazy input prices. We’ve now got guys with all their land and equity burned up, and we’re seeing Chapter 12 bankruptcies every day. Guys are quitting and walking away, and that eventually leads to land that doesn’t get picked up. That’s how terrible things have gotten, even if some people don’t see it yet. Cropland with no crop.”

For more from Chris Bennett (@ChrisBennettMS or cbennett@farmjournal.com or 662-592-1106), see:

Outraged Farmers Blame Ag Monopolies as Catastrophic Collapse Looms

Family Farm Wins Historic Case After Feds Violate Constitution and Ruin Business

County Shuts Down 15-Yr-Old’s Bait Stand on Family Farm, Threatens Daily Fines

Corn and Cocaine: Roger Reaves and the Most Incredible Farm Story Never Told

How the Deep State Tried, and Failed, to Crush an American Farmer

Game of Horns: Iowa Poacher’s Antler Addiction Leads to Historic Bust

Ghost Cattle: $650M Ponzi Rocks Livestock Industry, Money Still Missing

Outraged Farmers Blame Ag Monopolies as Catastrophic Collapse Looms

Tue, 09 Sep 2025 13:32:58 GMT

Farmers are not crying wolf. The wolf is real and right outside the door in the form of generational collapse.

The inescapable crop math of sustained crippling commodity prices and high input costs has many growers screaming for immediate relief, potentially via aid payments in late 2025 or early 2026. However, bailouts are Band-Aids over bullet holes.

Alarm has turned to extreme despair on many operations. On Sept. 2, 2025, a telltale farm meeting went nuclear. Field representatives from the offices of Sen. Tom Cotton, Sen. John Boozman and Rep. Rick Crawford, along with a rep sent by Gov. Sarah Sanders, initially intended to speak with a handful of growers in Brookland, Ark.

Instead, 400-plus farmers packed the house to overflow on a Tuesday — despite the pressing demands of rice and corn harvest and a mere three days’ notice — and unleashed a chain of grievances.

Where does blame lie? Where to begin digging for a long-term solution?

Amid the fallout of the Sept. 2 meeting, three farmers sound off on markets, monopolies, moratoriums and mismanagement in U.S. agriculture. They spare no sacred cows.

Adam Chappell: “This is the Worst Economy of My Lifetime ...”
Denial ain’t just a river in Egypt, says Adam Chappell. “Year after year of sweeping all this s*** under the rug and pretending it’s not happening has got us to this point. Years of barely squeaking by, surviving with a bailout and then doing it all again. That is the definition of insanity.”

Behind closed doors, Chappell says federal politicians acknowledge “monopoly influence.”

(Photo courtesy of Chappell Farms)

Growing 2,400 acres of soybeans, rice, and corn in east Arkansas’ Woodruff County, Chappell , 46, accuses USDA of head-in-the-sand policy: “I’m sick of USDA graphs saying agriculture income is set to rise. They’re baking cattle and coming payments into their recipe and pretending things are good. Bulls***.”

“This is the worst agriculture economy of my lifetime over at least the past three years, and right this minute, guys are going under — as in bankruptcy or leaving the farm,” he exclaims. “The solution is supposedly another bailout or a gap payment the following year? Wake the hell up: Where do you think that money is gonna go? It won’t go to farmers. It’ll go into supplier’s pockets.”

The entire agriculture industry — a bedrock of U.S. security — rests squarely on the shoulders of the American farmer. Ironically, that same farmer is the only player in the ag chain who cannot pass costs down the ladder.

Blame partially belongs on “Big Ag,” Chappell contends.

“Seed, chemicals or fertilizer, it’s all in the hands of a few companies that are the only game in town. You want to fix farming? Start a federal investigation on those big companies. Booming quarterly earnings and big stock dividends make no sense when farmers can’t pinch a penny.”

Farmers gathering at the benchmark Sept. 2 farm meeting in Brookland.

(Photo courtesy of Bailey Buffalo)

“If corn prices were to suddenly jump this month, nitrogen prices will magically rise the following year,” he continues. “If soybean prices explode to $15 tomorrow, a bag of beans will climb to $90. Guaranteed. Potash will hit $1,000. The monopoly problem is real.”

Behind closed doors, away from microphones and cameras, Chappell says federal politicians acknowledge “monopoly influence.”

“They all tell me they’re aware of a monopoly problem, and they don’t deny it exists. But they do nothing. Instead, we get bailouts and the money slips right out of our hands and into the big corporations we owe the money to — the monopolies. Meanwhile, those same corporations lobby for us to get the bailouts. Get it?”

“This is real talk,” Chappell describes. “This is what farmers know and experience. You can bet your ass, the monopolies will get their money. If you think otherwise, you’ve got blinders on.”

Kenneth Graves: “At Every Level of Agriculture, There Must Be a Reckoning.”
The Sept. 2 farm meeting, held a stone’s throw outside Jonesboro at Woods Chapel Baptist, was monumental, says retired Dewitt grower Kenneth Graves, 71. “I’d say 400 people or so showed up, maybe more. We’re talking about people standing outside the building in the middle of harvest. That tells you all you need to know.”

Dwarfing expectations, the line of overflow attendees wrapped around the building on Sept. 2.

(Photo courtesy of Bailey Buffalo)

Graves, chairman of the Arkansas Rice Growers Association , understands severe hardship. He farmed through the anemic ag crisis of the 1980s. However, the current unrest is a “coming disaster” unlike anything he’s witnessed across a 50-year career: “I’ve never seen this kinda look in farmers’ eyes. It’s fear. And it’s based in undeniable facts.”

In August 2025, Graves sent an open letter to media and politicians, pleading for attention to eye-popping numbers. “My letter told what things are like right now. In our geography, it looks like you need to yield 100-300-300 to stay ahead,” Graves describes. “That’s 100-bushel beans, 300-bushel rice and 300-bushel corn. Basic Arkansas averages are 56-bushel beans, 166-bushel rice and 175-bushel corn. In a nutshell, we are going over a cliff. Banks are forecasting farm bankruptcies at 25% to 40%, and the dirty secret is out. Everyone knows it; everyone feels it.”

How does the industry even begin to crawl out of the hole? Start with markets, Graves urges. “Our international competitors play under the table and get hidden subsidies. The whole dynamic is off. At every level of agriculture, there must be a reckoning. That certainly includes seed, chemical and machinery companies. Back off.”

Death of a thousand cuts, according to Graves: “It’s been building over time and now it’s on the doorstep. You can argue that guys will be able to get back in their fields next spring, but that’s just denying the inevitable. Whether this year or next year or the next, there’s a crash coming.”

“In a nutshell, we are going over a cliff,” says Kenneth Graves. “Banks are forecasting farm bankruptcies at 25% to 40%, and the dirty secret is out. Everyone knows it; everyone feels it.”

(Photo courtesy of Graves Farms)

Graves advocates for immediate political intervention. “I’m urging legislators at all levels to act now,” he says. “We’re talking about our food and agriculture security, and when that tanks, the economic effect will spill over every rural region in the country.

“Remember when that Chinese spy balloon flew over the U.S. in 2023, and our politicians did nothing? They made a lot of noise and acted too late, shooting it down after it collected data across the country,” Graves adds. “It’s past time to act. Our politicians either recognize this now or let us be some other country’s economic hostage later.”

Bailey Buffalo: “Farmers, Not the Giant Agriculture Manufacturers, Are the Ones Hurting.”

Adios to fifth- and sixth-generation farmers?

Yes, says Bailey Buffalo, 40, owner of Buffalo Grain Systems in Jonesboro, and president of Farm Protection Alliance .

“Horror stories. The pain is unreal. Worst farming situation I’ve seen in my life,” Buffalo says. “Look at Extension [University of Arkansas] numbers — corn growers losing $240 per acre; soybeans losing $144 per acre; and rice losing $380 per acre. The cotton growers may be worst of all.”

Agriculture’s handbrake must be pulled, says Bailey Buffalo, with an economic reversal contingent on a deep look at consolidation, moratoriums, and diversification.

(Photo courtesy of Buffalo Grain Systems)

Storms can be weathered during agricultural tumult, Buffalo maintains — except when a thumb rests on the scale. Consolidation, he says, has turned a market rut into a debacle.

“Basic macroeconomics (CR4) tells us that if the top four competitors in any sector control more than 40% of the market, abuses become likely and that sector is approaching a monopolistic risk. That’s where I believe we’re at in farming,” he explains. “We can’t climb out of this mess partly because we’re at the mercy of agriculture monopolies.

“Take corn, cotton, rice and soybean seed. They’re at 70% to 90% control by corporate cartels, in my opinion. Take fertilizer where the top four players control about 82% of the market,” he adds. “If 40% of any sector is a monopoly risk, then what the hell do our agriculture percentages tell us?”

Despite Buffalo’s alarm, the input market contains exceptions, he notes: “I can name small seed suppliers and fertilizer suppliers who are providing very high-quality products at fractions of what those much larger corporations are charging. The farmers just have to put the extra work into finding them and into getting their orders in early as possible. They are proving that it’s possible for small operations to sneak into corners of the market.”

Yet, exceptions do not move the overall dial. “Farmers are literally losing money per acre while Big Agriculture is making hundreds of millions of dollars and more,” Buffalo says. “How can that be sustainable? You can make all the excuses or justifications you like, but any fair-minded person knows the situation is way out of balance.”

“At every level of agriculture, there must be a reckoning,” says Kenneth Graves. “That certainly includes seed, chemical, and machinery companies. Back off.”

(Photo by Chris Bennett)

Bailout cash is a “gross Band-Aid,” according to Buffalo.

“The subsidies send farmers back to the pit, over and over. The money trickles to lenders, loans, suppliers, banks or somewhere else in chain. Bailouts are the same as kicking the can down the road,” he adds.

That “can” has grown exceedingly heavy and the end of the road is in sight, Buffalo says: “Some people blame tariffs. Some blame the current president. Some blame the last president. Some blame other politicians. In the background of all this blame, nobody is looking at where farmers spend their money. Farmers pay monopolies and often feel they have no choice.”

Agriculture’s handbrake must be pulled, Buffalo says, with an economic reversal contingent on a deep look at consolidation, moratoriums and diversification — via both a federal and state lens. In his opinion, the following four changes are in order:

1. Start with monopolies. “State constitutions have anti-trust legislation. Create smoke at the state level and force USDA and the feds to follow.”

2. Put an indefinite moratorium on all mergers and acquisitions in the food and ag sectors. “End consolidation and demand long-lasting change.”

3. Get a handle on D.C. lobbyists. According to a 2024 report, Cultivating Control : Lobbying by the agribusiness sector has steadily increased: In just the last five years, the agribusiness sector’s annual lobbying expenditures have risen 22%, from $145 million in 2019 to $177 million in 2023. And each year, agribusiness spends more on federal lobbying than the oil and gas industry and the defense sector.

A five-year “cooling off” lobbying period should be set in stone for any government official exiting office, Buffalo says: “Defense, SEC going to Wall Street, any of them, including agriculture. You should never, never be allowed to retire from an ag committee in Congress and then run over to a board at Tyson, Cargill, ADM, John Deere or any other company.”

4. The grain industry must diversify. “I think diversification must be part of any solution. I’m talking about an effort to grow all our food in this country. Our grain goes to feed and ethanol, but we need a structure to grow our own edible food as well, and protect our national security like never before.”

The entire agriculture industry—a bedrock of U.S. security—rests squarely on the shoulders of the American farmer. Ironically, that same farmer is the only player in the ag chain who cannot pass costs down the ladder.

(Photo by Chris Bennett)

At the Sept. 2 spillover meeting in northeast Arkansas, Buffalo was present, listening to the plight of the common grower. The meeting was noted by media and politicians as evidence of a dire “agriculture crisis.” Ironically, no such crisis exists, Buffalo asserts.

“They don’t get it and therefore they can’t properly find the solution,” he says. “Right now, if I was to walk into Congress and ask all the senators and reps, ‘Who thinks the agriculture industry is hurting to the point of collapse?’ all the hands would go up. Instead, the question should be, ‘Who thinks farmers are hurting to the point of collapse?’”

“There’s a giant difference between the two questions, and that difference is indicative of the separation between local Ag and Big Ag,” Buffalo concludes. “Farmers, not the giant agriculture manufacturers, are the ones hurting to the point of going belly up. There’s no solving any of this until that difference is recognized.”

For more from Chris Bennett (@ChrisBennettMS or cbennett@farmjournal.com or 662-592-1106), see:

Family Farm Wins Historic Case After Feds Violate Constitution and Ruin Business

County Shuts Down 15-Yr-Old’s Bait Stand on Family Farm, Threatens Daily Fines

City Gov to Seize 175-Year-Old Farm by Eminent Domain, Replace with Affordable Housing

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Use Corn Stand Counts To Ease The Stress In Making Replant Decisions

Mon, 19 May 2025 21:48:54 GMT

Moisture availability this week is a tale of two extremes across the Corn Belt. Farmers are reporting they either have too little, or they have way too much.

Kenneth Hartman Jr. is in the latter camp on his southern Illinois farm.

“It’s one of the worst springs I’ve seen in a long time, when it comes to water,” says Hartman, who’s based 25 miles south of St. Louis.

In April, Hartman’s area received record rainfall amounts that saturated the ground. “It’s still so wet there’s water coming up out of the ground in spots,” he says.

While Hartman is usually done with corn planting by now, he estimates he had only 30% of the 2025 crop in the ground as of Thursday.

“We’ve also got a few hundred acres of soybeans planted, but it’s just been challenging,” he told Chip Flory on AgriTalk.

A Belt Of Wet Soil Goes Across The Midwest
Hartman, president of the National Corn Growers Association, heard from a wide swath of farmers this week on what’s playing out in their fields across the country.

“I think if you look at Interstate 70 all the way across, you see this [excess moisture] goes across a big area,” Hartman says. “I know some folks in Indiana are having a lot of issues. Ohio is having a lot of issues. I know some folks in Missouri that’ve hardly started planting any corn. So, it’s pretty challenging in parts of the United States.”

Following Hartman’s line of thought, a look at the U.S. Drought Monitor released on Thursday shows that moisture levels for the most part appear adequate along the I-70 corridor, which runs east to west, until you reach Kansas. Sections of central, western and southwest Kansas are dry. Then, from central Colorado and into Utah, drought conditions appear to prevail.

A look at the route I-70 takes across the country can give you an idea of where farmers are getting rain, until it reaches central Kansas. From there and to the west, soil conditions turn dry.

(Google Maps)

The U.S. Drought Monitor released on Thursday reports 22% of the corn production area is in some level of drought, while 17% of the total soybean production is experiencing some level of drought.

Parts of the upper Midwest and the Southeast have had excess moisture in recent weeks. One Indiana farmer told Farm Journal recently, “this is the wettest drought I’ve ever seen.”

(U.S. Drought Monitor)

Some Farmers Are Restarting Their Corn Planters
Shell Rock, Iowa, farmer Jeff Reints says 98% of the corn crop in his part of northeast Iowa is planted, and he anticipates only a small percentage needs to be replanted.

“About 85% of our corn acres here are just perfect. Another 10% may not be the best but is still a keeper. And 5% of my customers are having to tear it up and replant,” says Reints who sells seed for Wyffels Hybrids, in addition to farming.

Tim Burrack says he is having to replant some corn acres, and adds that what is already emerged is causing him concerns.

“It’s highly uneven, very uneven. It just sat in the ground too long, and it was too wet,” says Burrack, who’s based in northeast Iowa, near Arlington.

Keep A Level Head To Make Replant Decisions
Whether to replant can be an emotionally charged decision this season, given the low commodity prices. Missy Bauer, Farm Journal Field Agronomist and co-owner of B&M Crop Consulting in south-central Michigan, is telling her customers to lean on the numbers to guide decisions.

“You need to know how good your corn stands are, because all the decisions we make the rest of the season are based on those numbers and how uniform the crop is,” she says. “Say you have 33,000 plants out there, how uniform are they? The uniformity can help us decide where to invest available dollars on inputs moving forward.”

In the process of doing stand counts, Bauer says to also take into consideration hybrid type.

“If it’s a real fixed ear that needs a lot of population, then maybe your trigger to replant is going to be a little bit higher of a number where you’ve got to have more final stand out there than if it was a hybrid that flexes a lot and can really add ear length under less population,” she explains. “With this second one, maybe I can let the numbers go down a little before I’d pull that replant decision in the corn.”

Be Proactive In Scouting Fields
At this point in the season, the important thing is to be proactive in evaluating stands, says Ken Ferrie, Farm Journal Field Agronomist and owner of Crop-Tech Consulting, Heyworth, Ill. Ferrie recommends using a drone to fly over fields, which could speed up the scouting process.

“With corn, take the entire stand out and then replace it,” he advises. “Do not attempt to thicken up old corn stands.”

“If you can’t bring yourself to tear it out, your stand is good enough,” he adds. “Don’t let the coffee shop tell you how to handle your replant decisions. This is not a decision where the majority rules. Each field needs to be called on its own.”

Ferrie offers a replant calculator online to help Illinois farmers make replant decisions. You can access Ferrie’s online calculator here .

Bauer adds that most university Extension agronomists also provide corn and soybean replant charts online.

Next Steps To Consider If You Keep The Crop
Ferrie says to be aware that fields pounded by rains will likely benefit from being hoed to help the crop with emergence.

“If you don’t have a hoe, use your planter,” Ferrie advises. “Set it the same way that we do when we use our planters to row fresh. Use the most shallow depth setting you can to get pressure off your closing wheels. Use your row cleaners with downforce to break that crust,” he adds.

Michelle Rook and Tyne Morgan contributed interviews for this article.

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USDA's Rollins: 'Let's Go Barnstorm The World And Find New Partners' For Trade

Tue, 18 Feb 2025 18:09:21 GMT

On Brooke Rollins’ first full week on the job as Secretary of Agriculture, she addressed the 600 farmers, ranchers and industry leaders in Kansas City for the 2025 Top Producer Summit.

High on Rollins’ list of priorities was the topic of trade and President Donald Trump’s vision for U.S. agriculture moving forward.

While Rollins did not shy away from addressing the administration’s decision to implement trade tariffs, noting “farmer and rancher concerns are legitimate,” she focused on what she sees as her role ahead.

“My job is to ensure that as President Trump and our trade representatives are making their decisions that I am in the room and advocating on behalf of our people, on behalf of all of you,” she told Top Producer Summit attendees.

One of her key objectives, she says, is to find and expand market access for U.S. agricultural products domestically and abroad.

“Let’s go barnstorm the world, and let’s go find some more trade partners and access [to market opportunities],” she says.

Rollins says her goals for trade are a reflection of Trump’s vision and his determination to make agriculture part of the “golden age” he sees ahead for the U.S.

Trump is the consummate deal maker, Rollins notes, able to side-step bureaucracy and red tape in the process to work with world leaders.

“I don’t know that in the last 250 years, we’ve had anyone in office like President Trump,” she says. “He is a very unusual, remarkable and fearless man, and he wants to make a deal, and in the best way, and put America first.”

Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins spoke to a crowd of 600 farmers, ranchers and industry leaders at the 2025 Top Producer Summit.

(Jim Barcus)

Making Headway With Trade
Sen. Roger Marshall of Kansas, who moderated the conversation with Rollins, highlighted Trump’s work to build trade during his first term.

“He redid USMCA, and now that’s our largest ag partnership, with Mexico and Canada,” Marshall says. “He gave us South Korea and Japan, which has been so important to Kansas and our cattle industry, as well as trade 1.0 with China.”

Marshall then mentioned the headway he believes Trump and team have made with India.

“I see India replacing China as our major trade partner, as well that China is growing right now,” Marshall says. “I think there’s huge opportunities in India.”

U.S. ethanol, cotton and tree nuts are three of the top agricultural exports to India, a country that has in the past impeded agricultural trade with tariffs and non-tariff barriers alike. Trump called out the barriers to trade following recent conversations with India’s Prime Minster Modi.

A joint statement after the Trump-Modi meeting said Washington welcomed New Delhi’s recent steps to lower tariffs on select U.S. products and increase market access to U.S. farm products, while seeking to negotiate the initial segments of a trade deal by the fall of 2025.

Rollins says the progress underway with India was just one step forward to address what she described as a trade crisis for the U.S.

“Our exports are down $37 billion this year and likely to be down $42 billion in the months to come. This is a crisis, and this is something that I understand inherently,” Rollins says.

“We have a tremendous amount of work to do,” she adds. “But my promise to you is this, and my commitment will never waver, that every minute of every day for the next four years, I will do everything within my power with hopefully God’s hand on all of us and our work to ensure that we are not just entering the golden age for America, as my boss, President Trump, likes to say, but that we are entering the golden age for agriculture.”

Secretary Rollins joined Chip Flory on AgriTalk. Listen to their discussion about trade policy and tariffs; avian flu; and disaster and economic aid.

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Navigating Trade Wars, Tariffs and More in the New Year

Wed, 11 Dec 2024 16:04:29 GMT

As the ag industry prepares to flip the calendar and head into a new year, even experts and insiders have more questions than answers. The long-delayed farm bill and 45Z biofuels tax credit guidance have kept the industry in a frustrating limbo, while high interest rates and low commodity prices push it toward recession.

Some economists are already calling the current situation a recession. Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist for StoneX, a financial services provider for global markets, is one of them.

“By definition, a recession is when you have back-to-back quarters of contraction in GDP [Gross Domestic Product],” he tells hosts Tyne Morgan and Clinton Griffith on Farm Journal’s Unscripted podcast. “We’re not growing as an industry, we’re contracting.”

However, he believes that comparisons to the 1980s, a historically bleak period for agriculture, are misguided.

“I don’t think we’re in that type of scenario,” he says. “Fortunately, as an industry, we’re not as highly leveraged as we were in the 1980s, particularly when you think of land. We have some safeguards in place.”

In fact, he tells the hosts that he’s more optimistic about the ag economy than he was just a few months ago, noting that a new tax policy and less regulation under the Trump administration could lead to renewed growth.

Suderman is also optimistic about global trade, foreseeing new agreements with major partners, such as Mexico, Canada and even China. Those countries, he says, are in weaker negotiating positions than they were during the first Trump administration. “We’re hearing from our people in China that maybe there might be some type of trade deal hopes,” he says. “That would mean more agricultural products bought from the United States in exchange for Trump easing up on tariffs on consumer goods.”

Of course, many challenges and questions will persist as the new administration takes over. How can the industry boost domestic demand for soybeans, corn and pork? Will the Trump administration show more support for biofuels than it did in its previous time in office? How can U.S. soybean exports succeed despite growing competition from countries such as Brazil and Argentina?

For Suderman, the clearest certainty is that changes will occur quickly in the new year. The president-elect knows that losing control of Congress in the mid-term elections is a possibility, so he will enact his new policies with as much speed as possible. “He has two years to get his agenda done,” Suderman says. “So we’re going to see things happen fast and furious.”

Watch the full episode of Unscripted

USDA Reports Show Glimmers of Hope and Challenges

Wed, 11 Nov 2020 06:24:43 GMT

Well, it wasn’t as bad as it could have been. The May 12, 2020, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports show increased supplies and some increasing demand.

Here are the details:

Corn: The corn crop is projected at a record 16.0 billion bushels. Total corn supplies are forecast record high at 18.1 billion bushels. With total U.S. corn supply rising more than use, 2020/21 U.S. ending stocks are up 1.2 billion bushels from last year and if realized would be the highest since 1987/88.
Soybeans: The soybean crop is projected at 4.125 billion bushels, up 568 million from last year on increased harvested area and trend yields. Despite lower beginning stocks, soybean supplies are projected up 5% from 2019/20 to 4.720 billion bushels. U.S. soybean exports are forecast at 2.050 billion bushels, up 375 million from the revised forecast for 2019/20. U.S. ending stocks for 2020/21 are projected at 405 million bushels, down 175 million from the revised 2019/20 forecast.

See the full report.

“I went into the report most interested in watching the change in total Chinese soybean import number,” says Jarod Creed, owner of JC Marketing Services. “The 2019/20 marketing year saw an increase to 92 million metric tons of soybean imports with 2020/2021 estimates starting at 96 million metric tons. That gets us back on track to where we were a few a years ago prior to trade war and ASF for total Chinese bean imports. So, we have that working in the right direction.”

USDA won’t change corn and soybean acres or yields until its June report. Just how big the corn and soybeans crops are will have a major influence going forward.

“I do think corn acres will shrink as we go through the year,” says Jim McCormick, hedging strategist with AgMarket.net. “So hopefully we’re seeing some of the worst supply numbers of the year with this report right now.”

McCormick says USDA lowered the ethanol demand by 100 million, but they raised exports, which is a good sign.

“I think that shows them they’re optimistic China’s going to come in and do some more buying,” he says. “The price of corn in China right now is at a five-year high. The price of corn in the U.S. is at a 10-year low. Economically it makes a lot of sense for China to come in and buy our grain.”

For new-crop demand, McCormick says USDA was aggressive with its estimates.

“It is going to be an awful high hill to slide up unless we can get this pandemic under control very, very fast,” he says.

Creed agrees: “At this point, it seems like demand is stretched pretty hard given the big production number forecasted. Production could change by nothing to as high as 750 million bushels depending on planted acres. The same is true for soybeans.”

From a soybean standpoint, Creed says a few friendly factors are at place. The carryout is manageable, and China is importing more beans.

“But in the background, we have the headwind of continued expansion in South America, so competition will stay fierce,” he says.

For corn, today’s report provided a little reprieve from the recent steady stream of negative factors.

“The corn market has been shown a significant amount of negative news over the last couple months,” Creed says. “Barring dramatic changes to planted acres and yield, corn could still have downside risk given the dramatic increase in carryout. We will see adjustments to corn acreage number, but I’m not confident enough to say it can make a bullish environment.”

USDA pegged the 2020/21 U.S. season-average corn price at $3.20 per bushel, down 40 cents from 2019/20 and the lowest since 2006/07. For soybeans, the projected price is $8.20 per bushel, down 30 cents from 2019/20.

“The uncertainty in livestock markets related to coronavirus definitely throws a little bit of negative shade over feed grain,” Creed says. “There is still lots of concerns around long-term demand in both from perspective of COVID-19. The market needs to build momentum of good news.”

Read More

WASDE Projects Record Corn Crop, Lower Soybean Ending Stocks