Markets - General

Farmers Emphasize Demand, Not Payments, Is The ‘Bridge To Better Times' For Agriculture

Wed, 22 Apr 2026 22:26:14 GMT

Two Midwest farmers are pinning their hopes for the future on stronger demand for corn and soybeans — especially the latter — as they navigate tight margins, high input costs, and an uncertain price outlook.

Northern Illinois farmer Steve Pitstick and south-central Iowa farmer Dennis Bogaards say they have exhausted most cost-cutting options for this season. They believe future profitability now rests on whether demand for both crops — particularly from domestic soybean crush and fuel markets — expands enough to support higher prices.

One silver lining currently, Pitstick says, is his relatively strong position on fertilizer heading into the 2026 planting season.

“We will do pretty much the dry spread program we always do,” he says. “We cut the rates a little bit on the phosphates just because of price. We booked our 32% in September, something we traditionally do. We have all the nitrogen bought, so I feel good about 2026 from that aspect.”

While he believes additional fertilizer is available, he notes it will likely be priced at a premium.

“I believe I can get more if I need it. I may not like the price, but I can get more,” he told AgriTalk Host Chip Flory during the weekly Farmer Forum segment.

Little To No Expansion On The Horizon

As the season begins, both farmers emphasize that the coming years will have farmers focusing on survival and strategic adjustments rather than acreage expansion.

One adjustment Bogaards is making is front-loading some of his nitrogen needs this season while leaving a portion open in case prices break.

“We booked anhydrous early on for this year, back in early fall, and got an OK price,” Bogaards says. “I have a little bit of sidedress that we do. We book about half of that, and I sit open on the rest of it. I’ll wait and see where it goes.”

Bogaards remains committed to sidedressing as long as product is available and prices do not continue ratcheting up. “If I can get it, I’ll put it on, unless it is a crazy, crazy price,” he says.

Like many U.S. growers, both Bogaards and Pitstick say there is virtually no room left to cut fertilizer use without risking yields.

“There is no place to cut back. We are being as efficient as we can be,” Pitstick says.

Bogaards agrees, noting that nitrogen is not the place to skimp. “Maybe a year or so, you can cut back on the P and K a little bit, but you do not want to get caught in three or four years of that.”

He also remains reluctant to drop fungicides. “Fungicides really pay off,” he says. “In the past, we did not use them, but the last few years they really paid, and I would hate to not spray them.”

Uncertainty About The 2027 Crop Mix

While the 2026 crop is largely “business as usual,” both farmers told Flory that 2027 brings real uncertainty—especially regarding nitrogen supplies. Pitstick is concerned about how global demand could impact costs for U.S. producers.

“I am worried about the price of the nitrogen,” he says. “It may not be an issue in the United States from a supply standpoint, but the rest of the world… could export our product because of opportunity cost, and that drives the price up. It is a total wait and see.”

Flory underscored how global trade flows directly shape what American farmers pay, noting that some fertilizer shipments originally destined for the U.S. were recently rerouted.

“Some boats are diverted from the U.S. to other countries,” Flory says. “If you want your share, you have to beat the next guy in line with the price.”

If nitrogen prices soar while corn prices stagnate, Pitstick says his rotation could shift. “That might change how we do things in 2027. We may have to go to more soybeans,” he says.

Bogaards also expects to alter his corn–soybean mix, given the potential demand from domestic crush and renewable fuels.

“In the past, we were probably 60% to 65% corn,” he says. “We have been backing off of that. I still do a little bit of corn-on-corn, but I might try to go to a 50–50 rotation.”

Flory believes this shift could help rebalance supplies and improve price prospects. “If we can pull some acres away from corn and get this thing rebalanced, maybe that is our bridge to a better time,” Flory says. “Our bridge to a better time is more demand across the board and crops competing for acres — not another payment.”

Bogaards says the shifting economics are already evident. “A couple of years ago, people said soybeans are a drag on our financial statements. It looks like almost the opposite right now.”

Even so, Bogaards is cautious about making long-term decisions based on short-term signals. “I can change acres right now, but by next fall, it might be the worst decision. I think you have to go with your rotation and stick with it.”

Pitstick links his long-term outlook to fuel sector growth, noting that both corn and soybeans increasingly function as energy crops.

“Some of the most profitable years of my career were when we had high fuel prices because we were also a fuel crop,” he says. “I have some optimism that these high fuel prices will cause some demand and increase our crop prices.”

For now, both farmers say their immediate job is to manage through 2026 while keeping their options open. With high costs for fertilizer, fuel, and machinery, they see expanded demand as the only realistic path forward.

“It is just survival at this point,” Bogaards says. “We just have to make sure we can survive and keep plugging through it.”

You can listen to the complete discussion between Bogaards, Pitstick and Flory on AgriTalk at the link below:

Companies Team Up To Accelerate Ag Innovation With Artificial Intelligence

Tue, 20 Jan 2026 20:20:35 GMT

SAP SE and Syngenta have announced a multi-year strategic technology partnership designed to bring AI-driven innovation directly to the agricultural sector. For farmers, this means a more modern, data-driven approach to the products and services they rely on daily, from manufacturing and supply chain management to field-level support.

As farmers navigate the complexities of climate variability and global market uncertainty, the partnership aims to bolster the tools available to meet the challenge of feeding a projected 10 billion people by 2050, Syngenta reports. By integrating AI across Syngenta’s operations, the collaboration is positioned to unlock faster innovation and stronger operational resilience that scales to meet the needs of agricultural producers.

“AI is the catalyst for agricultural transformation and has quickly become a core competitive edge for Syngenta,” said Feroz Sheikh, chief information and digital officer, Syngenta Group, in a prepared statement. “Our partnership with SAP is transforming how we run the enterprise, modernizing core operations and unlocking new ways to work — a testament to our commitment to becoming an agriculture company with AI at its core.”

“Syngenta’s transformation sets a benchmark for digital innovation in agriculture,” said Philipp Herzig, chief technology officer at SAP SE, in a statement. “Together, we’re demonstrating how cloud and AI technologies can drive sustainable growth and efficiency in one of the world’s most critical industries. This partnership will help Syngenta future-proof its operations to feed the world responsibly.”

The transformation begins with SAP Cloud ERP Private solutions, modernizing Syngenta’s value chain to ensure the company remains agile and responsive to market shifts. For U.S. farmers, this translates to a more reliable partner capable of weathering volatility and delivering consistent results, Syngenta says.

Through the SAP Business Data Cloud, Syngenta is establishing a unified and secure data foundation essential for real-time decision-making. Combined with SAP Business AI and tools like the Joule Copilot , the company intends to drive operational efficiency and accelerate the development of new technologies. Importantly, this initiative focuses on delivering superior products and services while ensuring farmers maintain control and privacy over their proprietary information.

Corn Futures Drop Following Surprise Yield Increase in January USDA Report

Mon, 12 Jan 2026 18:44:22 GMT

The January USDA reports are the biggest of the season with final crop production for the previous year, world supply and demand estimates, quarterly stocks and winter wheat seedings for the new season. Average trade guesses ahead of Monday indicated only minor adjustments to the annual reports that are historically a huge market mover.

This year, all eyes were on final yields and production, specifically corn, and USDA provided several bearish surprises.

Corn Crop Still Big

USDA didn’t back off its big corn crop forecast, putting its final 2025 production at 17 billion bushels. The agency raised its final yield estimates from November to 186.5 bu. per acre. ( Ahead of the report , the trade was expecting a 2 bu. cut to 184 bu. per acre.) The gains also include raising acreage 4.5 million above the June survey, which analysts say is unprecedented. The final harvest area is now estimated at 91.25 million acres.

In January 2026, USDA released record corn yield and production numbers.

(USDA/Lindsey Pound)

The increase in production also lifted U.S. ending stocks to 2.227 billion bushels. That’s up from 2.029 in December 2025 and well above traded estimates. Corn futures markets sank double digits immediately following the release.

“That’s just a massive crop, 186.5 for yield, says Matt Bennett with AgMarket.Net. “I take issue with the higher corn yield considering the heavy disease pressure in parts of the Corn Belt.
A lot of people, of course, with recency bias and all the issues felt like [USDA] could take this yield down a fair amount. I would say it was definitely a shock for most people.”

USDA raised total corn usage to a record 16.4 billion bushels.

“Exports have been nothing short of incredible so far. As far as sales are concerned, we’ve actually had good shipments, but USDA left exports at 3.2, and then actually took up feed and residual usage,” Bennett adds.

Soybean Numbers Remain Steady

On the soybean side of the aisle, USDA left yields basically unchanged from the November report at an estimated 53 bu. per acre. However it did raise overall production to 4.262 billion bushels.

USDA left soybean yields basically unchanged from the November report but did raise overall production.

(USDA/Lindsey Pound)

Ahead of the report , the average trade guess lowered yield by 0.3 bu. to 52.7 bu. per acre. Jerry Gulke thought President Trump’s goal of keeping food prices low and the fact USDA is providing Farmer Bridge Assistance might dictate a bearish slant.

Ending stocks are beginning the new year at 350 million bushels. That’s higher than December’s estimates based on smaller expected exports. The increase in production and lack of exports drove futures lower following the report.

“Essentially there were minor changes [for soybeans] other than exports, which went down 60 million bushels,” Bennett explains. “You’ve got to assume it’s because USDA took that Brazil crop up to 178. It’s something I think they lagged in doing. However, a 350 million bushels soybean carryout is still tight and with exports sales running 30% behind last year, it may be a gift for now.”

Winter Wheat Seedings Down

Farmers found a reason to plant more winter wheat than previously expected at 32.99 million acres. That’s well below last year’s crop planted on 33.15 million acres but larger than the trade had anticipated. Hard red winter wheat was nearly steady with last year at 23.50 million acres. Soft red winter wheat also near a year ago at 6.14 million acres while white winter wheat plantings fell to 3.36 million acres.

Click here to hear how Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist with StoneX, breaks down the price action following the report.

Farmers Face Budget Squeeze And Balance Sheet Challenges—Echoes Of A Decade Ago

Tue, 30 Dec 2025 21:13:24 GMT

If heading into 2026 feels a little like déjà vu, you’re picking up the same vibes Chris Barron, president and CEO of Iowa-based Ag View Solutions, is experiencing. He believes the next couple of years will echo the last big downturn farmers weathered a decade ago.

“It’s kind of scary that 2025, ’26 and ’27 look essentially like a repeat of 2015, ’16 and ’17,” Barron says. “If you remember that time frame and made it through, buckle down because I think we’re going there again.”

He says one of the clearest signals farmers are about to experience a repeat of a decade ago is based on the 2026 cost-of-production data from Ag View Solutions’ clients, who are based in 23 U.S. states and three Canadian provinces:

Soybeans: About $11.87 per bushel based on a 65-bu. average yield
Corn: About $4.69 per bushel (before basis) on a 223-bu. average, with many growers needing at least $4.85.

Some growers raising non-GMO seed beans or getting premium contracts can still make soybeans compete. But for many farms, soybeans are the weak link in the current economic cycle.

Right now, Ag View Solutions clients are expected to plant roughly 62% of their acres to corn and 38% to soybeans for 2026 — essentially the same as 2025. Barron says he doesn’t expect many acres to shift away from this mix to more soybeans “unless something really changes.”

Given current price relationships and crop insurance guarantees, Ag View Solutions data shows about a $50-per-acre advantage to corn over soybeans for the year ahead. Even if the dollars trend lower, he says corn often pencils out better because of gross revenue and risk management tools.

More Cost Pressures Heading Into 2026

It’s no secret production costs are increasing heading into the next season. Some of the key factors include:

Overhead costs (what Barron calls ‘”return to management”) for family and employee expenses, including phones, fuel and business-paid personal expenses, are up nearly 5%. After the past year or two of what Barron describes as hard belt-tightening, he says deferred spending is “snapping back” at higher levels.

Land rents are holding mostly steady, supported by higher property taxes and outside investor demand.

Interest expense is climbing as operating lines grow.

Fertilizer costs are a mixed bag. On corn, fertilizer costs are up about 7%, even though Barron believes most farms are staying with removal-rate applications. On soybeans, he says fertility costs will be lower, mainly because growers are putting less fertilizer on their bean acres and leaning harder on corn nutrients.

Machinery and equipment costs are also inching higher for the year ahead.

This Is Not A Repeat Of The 1980s

Despite the “red” many farmers will see on their spreadsheets in the year ahead, Barron says the current period is not a repeat of the 1980s farm crisis, for two key reasons:

Farmer equity is strong. Debt-to-asset ratios remain healthy for many U.S. growers, even if cash is tight.
Many farmer exits are voluntary. Today, many farmers are choosing to retire or scale back in order to protect equity.

Barron offers a recent example: “I got a call the other day on 7,000 acres, a 45-year-old farmer saying, ‘I’m not going to do this anymore. I’ve got a $5 million equity position, and I’m not going to go for a couple more years and chew away another million dollars. I’m just going to be done.’”

Strategies for the Current Climate

To survive — and potentially thrive — in this “repeat” cycle, Barron suggests focusing on these four areas in the year ahead:

Do the high-dollar work. Barron says the “$500-an-hour” work is crunching numbers in the farm office. “Know your true costs, stress-test budgets, analyze each profit center. A few hours spent with good numbers can be worth far more than another round in the tractor,” he says.
Protect yield. He advises against cutting seed, chemistry or other inputs that protect or enhance yield “just to save a few cents per bushel.”
Right-size your operation. Barron says some of the most successful turnarounds he’s seen with operations lately have come when farmers “right-sizes” — they’re doing less, but doing it better — instead of trying to be everything to everyone.
Use collaborative models. Barron says he is seeing more farmers share equipment and labor with their neighbors to spread fixed costs without extra capital.

Opportunity Will Still Knock

During a Top Producer podcast, Barron told Host Paul Neiffer that the tight times ahead will create new land-rent opportunities for some farmers who want to expand. What commonly happens when margins get tight is some farmers pull back, and that’s when expansion possibilities open up for others.

“We’ve had numerous clients call us about opportunities to rent land and not like in small amounts. When times are tight and when things aren’t good, that’s when these opportunities present themselves,” he says.

Barron’s message for those farmers in expansion mode: have your numbers, working capital and lender relationships in order now, so if the right block of ground comes available, you can move quickly and confidently on it.

If you’re interested in the ROI spreadsheet Barron’s team uses to analyze market trends, email cbarron@agviewsolutions.com .

Hear the complete discussion between Barron and Flory on Farm Journal TV . Also, you can listen to the Top Producer podcast discussion between Barron and Neiffer at the link below:

Dollars And Dirt: Navigating The Financial Reality Of Conservation Farming

Fri, 19 Dec 2025 20:48:35 GMT

Farmers like Ted Hamer and April Hemmes aren’t opposed to conservation practices or regenerative agriculture—both Iowa row crop growers already use some. What they are opposed to is taking on unmanageable risk in an environment of tight margins, volatile markets and rising input costs without clear, reliable benefits.

During their recent, wide-ranging conversation on AgriTalk, a central theme emerged: if policymakers and companies seek broader adoption of conservation and regenerative practices, they must pair expectations with practical, well-designed incentives.

Here are some of the key points the two farmers made during their discussion with Host Davis Michaelson.

‘Regenerative’ is Just Good Farming
When new programs are announced with big dollar figures and bold language, they often imply that farmers need to be “fixed.” That doesn’t sit well with farmers, many of whom have been stewarding the same land for generations.

As Hemmes, based in Franklin County, Iowa, puts it, many practices highlighted under the umbrella of “regenerative agriculture” are simply standards for good farming.

“What you’re saying is regenerative ag, I just call farming. That’s just what we do. Taking care of our ground and having healthy soils is what we farmers do because it’s our legacy to our family,” says Hemmes, who uses no-till, cover crops and water management practices.

In her and Hamer’s perspective, farmers are not resistant to regenerative practices. Instead, they dislike being told they are “farming wrong” by groups and individuals outside of agriculture who may not fully grasp the on-the-ground economic and agronomic realities.

Tight Margins Make Experimenting A High-Stakes Decision
Hamer, based in Tama County, Iowa, explains that adopting new practices—such as cover crops, reduced tillage, or diversified rotations—often means incurring upfront costs, significant management changes, and a lot of uncertainty.

“It’s terribly risky with the margins we have right now… I’ve got to make a buck… I can’t have it be so risky that I don’t see a return on my investment,” Hamer says.

This is the crux of the matter: even when farmers are supportive and willing to adopt new practices and technologies, the math has to work, and some profit must be realized.

Their collective perspective is clear: without robust ROI data, strong cost-share or incentive payments, and integrated risk-management tools (like multi-year contracts or crop insurance integration), shifting current practices is often unjustifiable.

“The margins are too tight to stick your neck out very far at this time,” Hamer says.

Incentives Must Include Technical Support
National agricultural announcements often tout the dollar amounts available, such as the recently announced $700 million Regenerative Pilot Program . While funding is crucial, Hemmes points to an equally pressing need: technical support in the field to help implement the programs effectively.

“They need more dollars for people in the field…. I’ve been a soil and water commissioner for over 30 years, and we are in desperate need for technicians out here. So, throwing money at this is one thing, but getting the people in place to carry out the programs is another,” she says.

When USDA service centers, Extension offices, and others at the local level are understaffed and technical assistance is stretched thin, good programs can stall at the farm gate. Hemmes outlines the requirements for effective incentives:

Adequate Technical Assistance: To help farmers correctly design and implement complex practices.
Reasonable Timelines: Recognizing that some benefits, like improved soil structure and organic matter, take time to develop and build.
Simple, Predictable Processes: Application and compliance should be straightforward.

Without the necessary technical support and manpower, Hemmes notes that even the best programs often just turn into frustrating paperwork exercises.

Aid Payments Don’t Fix Structural Issues
Short-term “bridge” or aid payments can help keep farms afloat during difficult years, but Hemmes and Hamer say they don’t structurally support the long-term decisions that can improve grower practices and profitability.

The main issue, they contend, is that much of the money from these aid programs never truly stays on the farm.

“This payment (the $12 billion Farmer Bridge Assistance program) isn’t for us. It’s all going to input costs, fertilizer, equipment. None of that money stays in our hands,” Hamer says.

Hemmes agrees, noting that people outside of agriculture often “don’t see what the problem is” because farmers are seemingly getting “free” money.

“It’s not like we go to Amazon and order a bunch more crap off there because we got some money,” she says. “No. It goes to everything we have to do to put the next crop in the ground.”

Ultimately, she believes, major policy change requires facing difficult truths.

“We’d love free and fair trade, but we know that’s not a possibility,” she contends. “It’s going to hurt to make a change, and I think that’s what politicians don’t like. They want to get reelected, so [their attitude is] ‘let’s just keep doing it this way.’ That’s the tough part of it all, because anything that revolves around changing policy is messy.”

Hear the complete conversation between Hamer, Hemmes and Michaelson on AgriTalk:

No More Idle Fields: How A Small Fish Could Solve Rice Farmers' Winter Revenue Gap

Wed, 17 Dec 2025 16:59:24 GMT

Researchers are pioneering a system in Arkansas to turn winter-idle rice fields there into productive fish farms, potentially offering environmental benefits and a new revenue stream for growers.

Currently, rice is planted in the spring and harvested in the fall, leaving the fields empty in winter. But what if this non-productive period could be utilized to add a second, lucrative crop?

The ‘Fish In The Fields’ Project
University of Arkansas researcher Ben Runkle is exploring that question with his multiyear research project called, “Fish in the Fields.”

Runkle says the research is being conducted on a commercial rice farm in eastern Arkansas in Lonoke County, about 45 minutes east of Little Rock.

“The concept was introduced to us by partners from California, at the Resource Renewal Institute, who are interested in exploring different types of regenerative production that are environmentally-friendly and farmer-friendly,” Runkle says.

Scientists at the Institute reached out to Runkle and his group, knowing their expertise in agriculture and farm practices and the interactions between the carbon and water cycle.

“We started designing this experiment to explore the potential for growing fish as a crop, concurrent, or in the off season, with rice,” Runkle says.
The researchers are evaluating two key potential benefits:

environmental/agronomic: The fish can help consume and degrade some of the leftover residues of the rice plant. They are also theorized to reduce methane emissions from the field in the winter period, Runkle notes. Additionally, they process and cycle nutrients, which could potentially reduce fertilizer needs for the subsequent rice crop.
economic: The fish provide an alternate source of income for the farmers if they are harvested and sold on the market.

Runkle says there are a couple of similar projects he’s aware of that are underway in the U.S. One is in Louisiana, where rice farmers are doing some rotation with crawfish in their fields. There are also some similar projects underway in California, with researchers and farmers there exploring the use of fish in the wintertime to help break down residues.

Small Fish, Big Impact
Runkle says the Arkansas project is currently focused on growing fish commonly referred to as darters.

“They’re very small fish, basically like minnows. They are most commonly used as feed for other fish,” he explains.

The 2024 winter marked the third time Runkle and his research team have raised the fish in the field. In the process, they developed a prototype system to turn the fish into a marketable product.

“They are being flash freeze-dried, packaged, and will be sold as fish food,” Runkle says.

Along with developing a marketable product, Runkle says his team’s work has demonstrated some regenerative agriculture benefits.

“My graduate student’s research has found very low methane emissions in these fields, which is an environmental benefit,” Runkle says. “We also have some evidence of the fish consuming the leftover residue in the field, which provides an agronomic benefit.”

Along with those efforts, Runkle and hist team are taking water samples to assess zooplankton and phytoplankton, and flying a drone over the field to measure chlorophyll content. “It’s a highly integrated, real-world measurement system,” he says.

De-Risking The System For Farmers
Future phases of the research will continue to look at how farmers could benefit financially from including fish as a second crop in their fields during winter while incurring a low level of risk. Being able to produce an additional “crop” on fields could provide a financial boost to rice growers in Arkansas, the No. 1 rice-producing state in the country, and potentially, for rice growers in other states.

Runkle says his group is evaluating how to “de-risk the system” by making sure it demonstrates a clear profit, does not impact farmers’ main crop of rice and offers a reliable market for the uniquely grown fish.

“We would like to study more about the methane dynamics, the fish productivity, and critical harvest methods. A major factor is improving the harvest, which currently involves draining the fields just right to congregate the fish in a ditch, and then using a special pump system to collect them. It requires year-by-year iteration to improve,” Runkle notes.

Runkle says financial support by the Southern SARE Grant (Sustainable Agricultural Research and Education) and an NRCS Conservation Innovation Grant is funding the research.

To learn more about the fish-in-fields project, listen to the recent podcast, Short Talks From The Hill , where host Hardin Young and Runkle discuss the research and the potential opportunities for farmers.

‘Farmers Can’t Outyield the Balance Sheet Anymore’

Fri, 12 Dec 2025 22:54:51 GMT

Randy Dowdy, high-yield corn and soybean farmer and agronomic consultant, paints a stark picture of the economic pressure bearing down on American farmers.

Fresh from a visit with customers, Dowdy says the same three questions dominate almost every discussion he had with growers:

Where can we cut costs?
Where do we have to spend money to stay in business?
How do we service existing debt when margins are razor thin?

Even with strong yields this year, many of the farmers, he notes, “could not outyield the balance books.” Commodity prices have not kept pace with rising costs, he says, leaving farmers struggling to keep their operations in the black.

Costs Have Soared, Partly Due To Regulations
Dowdy contrasts his early years in farming with today’s reality. When he started farming in 2008, his first tractor cost between $150,000 and $175,000. Now, he says, a similar horsepower tractor “can run roughly three times that dollar amount.”

He traces a significant part of that escalation to emissions and environmental regulations that began ramping up in the late 2000s. He recalls an initial price jump, followed by annual increases of 6% to 8% since then, compounding the burden on farm finances. The complexity that comes with the machinery systems, he argues, also has stripped farmers of their ability to repair their own equipment.

“You can’t work on [equipment] without a computer. Even the technicians can’t work on them without a computer,” he mentioned on a recent AgriTalk segment.

Noting not all of the price jump is due to emissions controls, Dowdy believes the regulatory wave gave some manufacturers cover to raise prices.

Tension Between Policy and Reality
Dowdy’s comments on AgriTalk came following a White House roundtable on Monday tied to a new $12 billion “bridge payment” plan . President Donald Trump said his administration will move quickly to ease environmental requirements affecting tractors and other farm machinery , arguing the changes will lower sticker prices and simplify repairs.

On Wednesday more news followed with Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins and Health Secretary Robert “F” Kennedy Jr., announcing a $700 million initiative for regenerative agriculture .

Dowdy said he’s not opposed to supporting agricultural niches — all of the profitable corn and soybean growers he and Total Acre business partner David Hula met with recently have some kind of specialty angle.

“If there’s a little help for those guys, I don’t have a problem with it. But at the end of the day, the row crop farmers are where the help needs to be,” he notes.

Part of the help has to do with machinery costs. He highlighted cotton pickers as one example.

“The cotton industry’s got one manufacturer that I’m aware of that makes a cotton picker. One. And it’s $1.2 million,” he says. “Where’s the competition that helps make that thing affordable?”

Dowdy doesn’t claim to have all the answers, but he would like a “seat at the table” to have a candid conversation with policymakers and regulators focused on one core goal: bringing equipment and input costs back within reach so farmers can keep their operations viable.

“I’m all for the farmer,” Dowdy says. “If the farmer wins, everybody wins.”

Dowdy and Hula address farmer profitability needs in more detail in their new Breaking Barriers With R&D podcast, available here:

You can also catch the AgriTalk discussion between Dowdy and Host Davis Michaelson below:

Cutting Through the Confusion: White House Confirms Trade Agreement With China on Soybeans

Mon, 08 Dec 2025 16:28:26 GMT

Late last week, grain markets got a jolt. A claim about China and U.S. soybean purchases spread fast , morphed into “headline certainty” and briefly fueled market chatter that the key buying framework didn’t exist.

A marketing firm reported U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said there’s no deal with China on soybeans. That report was unverified but spread through the markets.

Then, over the weekend, additional comments, reporting and other policy analysts reiterated that China is buying U.S. soybeans because that’s what they agreed to do.

“With China, it’s always: We verify and we monitor and we watch the commitments. The commitments are quite specific,” Greer said Sunday on Fox News. “So all of these things that we’ve agreed to with the Chinese recently are very concrete, we can monitor them with some ease, and so far, we’re seeing that they’re in compliance.”

Greer said China has gotten approximately “a third” of the way through its soybean purchase commitment for this growing season.

Also over the weekend, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated China is making good progress on its commitment to buy U.S. soybeans , reaching the “correct cadence,” with purchases expected to finish by February 2026, highlighting both the ongoing trade commitments and the need for continued support for farmers.

Bessent also said China’s commitment to buying 12 million metric tons (MMT) of soybeans runs through the end of February. That comment, which was seen as Bessent moving the goalpost on when China will complete its purchase commitment, also negatively impacted prices as it fueled more uncertainty.

Private exporters reported sales of 4.85 million bu. or 132,000 metric tons of #soybeans for delivery to #China during the 2025/2026 marketing year. #USDA @AgDayTV @FarmJournal @USFarmReport
— Michelle Rook (@michellerookag) December 8, 2025

Despite the mixed comments, China is still buying U.S. soybeans, a sign there is an agreement with China. USDA confirmed another 4.85 million bushel sale to China, which is 132,000 MT.

Before Monday’s confirmation, as of early December 2025, China has only booked roughly 3 MMT of U.S. soybeans toward its 12 MMT commitment for the final two months of 2025. While Bessent says China is on track to reach that commitment, the total remains far short of the target, and economists are split on whether China will meet the full volume . It’s also key to note China is actually buying, something analysts say wouldn’t happen if there wasn’t an agreement in place.

How the Market Rumor Took Off

According to Washington analyst and regular “AgriTalk” guest Jim Wiesemeyer, on Friday, at least one commodity analyst group circulated a note asserting a Trump administration official, reportedly U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, said there was no U.S.-China agreement in place for Beijing to purchase U.S. soybeans.

The problem: The claim arrived without verification. Wiesemeyer pointed out there was no transcript, no audio and no on-the-record quote. He also said there was no published statement from USTR to support the sweeping interpretation that some policy or purchasing framework had been reversed or didn’t exist.

Still, similar to what happened with a New World screwworm rumor, the rumor ricocheted through portions of ag-market media and social channels, where a single unattributed line quickly hardened into broader conclusions such as there is no agreement, the deal collapsed or China won’t buy, which according to Bessent’s comments over the weekend, isn’t true.

Wiesemeyer says soybean trade headlines are uniquely prone to rumor-driven distortion, and this flare-up checked several familiar boxes:

1) Politics gets oversimplified
Many market analysts are excellent on supply-demand fundamentals but are less reliable interpreters of negotiation tactics, tariff strategy and the way trade messaging gets used as leverage.

2) Position bias creeps in
In fast markets, some commentary “fits” preexisting long or short positions. Information that supports a bias gets amplified, while contradictory context gets ignored.

The Key Point: An “Agreement” Isn’t a Simple Yes or No

China’s soybean buying is never just about one sentence or one headline. It is shaped by a stack of moving parts, including:

tariff structures and exemptions
political leverage inside broader negotiations
Chinese feed demand and crush margins
seasonal price competitiveness (U.S. versus Brazil)

That’s why a claim like “there is no agreement” can be misleading even when it contains a sliver of technical truth. Sometimes “no agreement” means no formal, binding document in the way markets imagine, not that political commitments, buying intentions or commercial flows have stopped.

In other words: A framework can still exist even if it isn’t a tidy, enforceable contract, and purchases can still occur even if every detail hasn’t been restated publicly.

A Weekend Signal Points to a “Deal” with China

Adding context to the late-week confusion: China’s state stockpiler Sinograin plans to auction 512,500 metric tons of imported soybeans on Dec. 11, according to a notice from the National Grain Trade Center. Reuters reported analysts viewed the size of the sale, and the fact it’s the first auction in three months, as a potential signal Beijing is clearing storage space ahead of additional state-directed buying.

That kind of reserve rotation doesn’t align neatly with the idea that China’s commitments have evaporated. If anything, it’s consistent with China positioning itself for additional procurement under ongoing trade expectations.

Where Do We Go From Here?

Market talk isn’t always news. Until an official statement is issued by USTR, USDA or the White House, sweeping claims that the U.S.-China soybean buying framework has “collapsed” should be treated as exactly what they are: market noise.

And producers and traders should remember the lesson from this episode: In grain markets, a rumor can move faster than a confirmation, but it shouldn’t move your decision-making faster than the facts.

Over $10 Billion Still Available To Farmers In Disaster Relief Program

Wed, 03 Dec 2025 22:43:42 GMT

The sign-up period is now underway for farmers interested in participating in the USDA Supplemental Disaster Relief Program (SDRP).

Participation in Stage 2 of the SDRP is now open to those farmers who experienced crop, tree, bush, or vine losses in 2023 and 2024 due to qualifying natural disasters that were not covered under Stage 1. This includes non-indemnified, uncovered, or quality losses from events like wildfires, floods, excessive heat, and drought, USDA says.

The agency adds that the sign up for Stage 1 participation is still ag for those farmers with indemnified losses.

Both stages have a deadline of April 30, 2026, to apply.

USDA has allocated a total of $16 billion for SDRP. To date, the agency says over $5.7 billion has been distributed to more than 381,000 farmers under Stage 1 of the program, leaving $10.3 billion of aid still available to qualifying producers.

What If You’re On The Fence About Applying?
One group of farmers who might not believe they qualify for Stage 2 of the program are those who had crop insurance the past two years but didn’t collect a payment – either because their coverage level was too low or they didn’t have quite enough yield loss, reports Paul Neiffer, The Farm CPA.

“There are a lot of farmers out there who could qualify and collect under Stage 2,” Neiffer says. “It’s probably more farmers than we might have thought initially.”

Neiffer has developed a calculator that farmers can use to estimate their potential payment. The subscription-based product is available at farmCPAreport.com.

USDA offers more information specific to Stage 2 at this link .

Update On 2025 ARC-PLC Payments
Under the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” enacted in July 2025, the legislation allows qualifying farmers to automatically receive the higher of ARC or PLC payments for each covered commodity, regardless of their initial program election. This change is projected to add an additional $3.2 billion to the estimated $13.5 billion in ARC and PLC payments for 2025.

“Based on current projections, farmers can expect between $12 and $13 billion in payments next October,” Neiffer says.

Some farmers have contacted Flory, asking whether Congress could potentially change the rules on the 2025 ARC-PLC payments, if a ‘skinny’ farm bill is passed. Neiffer says that won’t happen.

“The rules are permanently in the law right now,” he explains. “The last thing I think Congress wants to do is make any changes as far as farm bill provisions. Remember, they already kicked the 2018 farm bill down the road to September 30, 2026. That means any changes likely to come are not going to happen until sometime next year anyway, so I can’t see any way they’re going to make any changes to the 2025 ARC-PLC.”

IRS Issues Guidance On Interest Deduction
The internal revenue service (IRS) has released guidance on new bank loan interest deductions. Any bank (excluding Farm Credit banks) or life insurance company that makes loans to farmers could potentially get a 25% net deduction on their interest income.

“But then they also have to reduce their interest expense that they incur to fund that loan by 25%. So, the net benefit to the farmer, potentially is an extra 10 to 15 basis points reduction in their loan rate. So, if they’re at 8% they might get a loan at 7.85% or 7.9%,” Neiffer says.

While the benefit is small, it still is a potential money saver. “That’s not a big deal, but it certainly doesn’t hurt to ask the bank in that situation,
‘Hey, give me an extra 10 or 15 basis points, because I know you have a tax deduction here,’” Flory says.

Catch more of the Neiffer-Flory conversation on AgriTalk here:

From Harvest to Hardship: Farmers Struggle With Cash-Flow Crunch

Tue, 25 Nov 2025 22:14:34 GMT

Across America’s heartland, most corn and soybean crops are harvested, combines have been put away, and farmers will gather with their families to enjoy the holidays ahead. But as farmers gather around dinner tables and give thanks for what they have, many are concerned about what they don’t have this fall – adequate cash flow.

That lack is the No. 1 issue facing farmers now, according to southeast Illinois farmer Sherman Newlin, who’s based in Crawford County.

“I think these low prices are starting to take a toll on guys trying to meet their cash-flow needs,” he says.

For many farmers, Newlin believes the issue isn’t just about surviving until next spring — it’s about paying land rents, covering input bills coming due, and staying afloat right now.

“Unless you’re in a good area that had really good yields, cash flow is probably going to be tight,” Newlin says.

Northeast Iowa Brent Judisch doesn’t sugarcoat the numbers he penciled out last Wednesday. “Our cash corn today is at $4.10 — that’s not going to cut it with an average yield. Our cash beans today are $10.60. With a good bean crop, that probably cash flows, but it doesn’t make any money,” he says.

Farmers Took Grain To Town At Harvest
Selling grain is about the only option many row-crop growers have had this fall to meet expenses, even if the market timing isn’t ideal, Newlin says.

“Prices for corn and soybeans have come up some. At harvest, things were quite a bit lower than where they are right now,” Newlin says. “But it’s kind of hard to take advantage of a rally if you sold across the scale and didn’t come back in and reown [the crop] on paper.”

Judisch says there are some “better bids out there” for farmers who can wait to market corn in late winter, February and March.

“But for the short term, [buyers] are not having to bid up that much to get it because guys are just having to turn some stuff into cash to pay the December rents,” he says.

(Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor)

The November Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor survey reflects farmers’ current cash-flow pressure as well as their mindset in how they are approaching marketing decisions now. The survey, administered by Farm Journal, shows:

53% of ag economists say farmers are marketing defensively, prioritizing liquidity and risk reduction.
41% of ag economists say farmers are reactive, delaying decisions due to uncertainty.

Where Is The Financial Stress Most Severe?
Jackson Takach, chief economist for Farmer Mac, tells Farm Journal his reports indicate farmers’ top concern is liquidity (working capital) and their second-highest concern is farm income.

“We know cash flows are top of mind,” he says. “As prices have come down, people are talking about it more and digging into working capital, and that’s causing a little bit of distress, particularly in the grain side of the ag economy.”

Takach says the economic stress is highest in parts of the country where soybeans are farmers’ No. 1 crop.

“You look at the Delta, that’s where we’re seeing a lot of stress popping up in bankruptcies as well as late payments, because of some of that additional stress coming through with lower commodity prices specific to soybeans.”

That sentiment is similar to what was shared in the November Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor survey, though the Monitor paints a broader picture. When asked in which region farmers face the most severe financial pressure, economists reported that “cotton and rice country is suffering from especially poor profitability and weak sentiment.”

Without action, long-term farmer viability is at risk, according to John Newton, American Farm Bureau Federation economist. “Additional financial support is critical to offset trade losses and provide a bridge until farm bill enhancements from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act go into effect,” he says in a release. “This will stabilize the farm economy, sustain rural economies and maintain affordable food prices.”

Will China Come Through On Soybean Purchases?
The fate of soybean exports is on nearly everyone’s radar, especially as China’s purchases for 2025 still hang in the balance.

Reuters’ Karl Plume reports that China is starting to make good on its promises, noting that “two cargo vessels were headed for grain port terminals near New Orleans on Monday to load with the first U.S. soybean shipments to China since May, according to a shipping schedule seen by Reuters.”

But Judisch warns the window for 2025 U.S. soybean sales to China is closing fast.

“We’re going to have to see some immediate results from this agreement [with China], because if this drags into January and February and Brazil comes online, I’m not very optimistic that we’re going to make the goals that were set between the U.S. and China.”

Farmers Press On And Start Planning For Next Season
With 2026 around the corner, cautious optimism about the new year mingles with the current hard reality of farmers’ cash-flow drought.

Judisch notes that successful negotiations by the Trump administration to drop tariffs on some items, such as fertilizer, aren’t helping financially strapped farmers. He says that was a scenario of a little help that arrived too late.

“Stopping the tariffs on fertilizer this late in the game does no good for the 2026 crop because you’ve either got it on fields already or your buildings are already full of high-priced fertilizer,” Judisch contends.

“It’s kind of a bugaboo for us,” he adds. “Our costs are staying high even with the tariffs being dropped on fertilizer, but our income is just not going to be there until probably next summer.”

Cash rents for 2026 is one important aspect of the financial equation for the year ahead that 100% of ag economists surveyed this month recommend farmers dig into now. Notes one ag economist: “Cash rent could use more attention as a majority of land is rented… it would be nice if landlords knew that they may need to lower cash rent.”

(Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor)

Newlin says he and other farmers he knows in his area are sorting through crop rotations for next season – whether to plant more corn and
fewer soybeans or less corn and more soybeans.

“We’ll probably be heavier corn next year just because of our rotation, but a lot of guys are going to be heavier in corn in our area,” Newlin says.

Judisch is sticking with his 60-40 ratio of corn to beans next season. Like Newlin, he believes other farmers could lean toward more corn in the year ahead, given the financial opportunity many believe corn offers.

“We’ve seen some very good export sales on corn, so there are some good things happening,” Judisch says. “We need to keep them going in the future. That’s the biggest thing.”

Your next read: USDA Signals Possible Trade Aid Soon, Economists Warn It Could Keep Input Prices High

Potential China Deal, New Trade Pacts Brighten U.S. Soybean Outlook

Mon, 27 Oct 2025 17:35:08 GMT

Comments by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Sunday indicate China will come to the meeting with President Trump on Thursday ready to strike a deal and make “substantial purchases” of U.S. soybeans.

“Soybean farmers are going to be extremely happy with this deal for this year and for the coming years,” Bessent said yesterday on the CBS public affairs show, Face The Nation.

American Soybean Association (ASA) President Caleb Ragland responded to Bessent’s comments in a statement that, “signals of purchase commitments are a positive step” and soybean producers are “hopeful they result in a trade deal that delivers results.”

SOYBEANS! Big news this morning by our incredible @SecScottBessent and our entire team.

China’s commitment to make substantial purchases of US soybeans brings the market BACK into balance and secures years of prosperity for American producers. More good news coming shortly. https://t.co/eIjOMa0sBD
— Secretary Brooke Rollins (@SecRollins) October 26, 2025

Purdue Ag Economist Michael Langemeier says he believes a trade agreement with China can be reached.

“It makes sense to me, because we are such a big player, that we still have a place at the table in terms of selling soybeans to China, because [the Chinese] don’t want to completely rely on one country,” Langemeier says.

Jerry Gulke tells Farm Journal he thinks China needs U.S. soybeans to bridge a gap that will occur between the time the U.S. harvest ends and Brazil’s harvest starts.

“There’s some talk that they need about 10 million metric tons (MMT). That’s about 300 million bushels. And that’s about the deficit that would really help us,” says Gulke, president of the Gulke Group.

While Langemeier believes a trade deal can be reached, he doesn’t think the scope of the trade agreements U.S. has had with China will go back to previous levels. He anticipates Brazil will continue to capture a large percentage of China’s soybean business.

USDA reports Brazil produced a record soybean crop in 2025 of 169 MMT.

The increasing scope of the South American crop is one reason why Langemeier emphasizes the need to continue increasing domestic demand for U.S. soybeans.

“It’s a slow process, and it can’t absorb billions of bushels, but it can help long-term support a large acreage of soybeans in the U.S.,” he says.

Additional Trade Agreements In The Works
On Sunday, ASA announced the U.S. signed two trade deals with Malaysia and Cambodia as well as a framework for reciprocal trade with Vietnam and Thailand.

As part of these announcements, the White House has noted multiple provisions favorable to U.S. soybean exports, including:

The elimination or reduction of tariff barriers for U.S. agricultural products into all four countries
A commitment from Thailand to purchase U.S. soybean meal, among other U.S. feed commodities, on a per annum basis totaling $2.6 billion
The elimination or reduction of major non-tariff barriers in each country, including favorable language on biotechnology regulations, sanitary and phytosanitary provisions (SPS), and other non-tariff barriers.

Farmers Face Major Storage, Selling Decisions
While U.S. farmers are finishing up the 2025 harvest, most are trying to decide how much and where to store the crop until prices show some improvement.

Langemeier said there will be a need for farmers to make some sales this fall to meet cash flow demand. They’ll then store whatever they can until at least the first of the year – though that decision could change quickly, if a trade deal with China is struck.

“Certainly, storing a part of that [soybean] crop if you can afford to do until till we have a little bit more information on where prices are going to settle for the 2025 crop, would be a prudent strategy,” he says.

If no deal is struck with China, or it’s small, he encourages farmers to not hang onto the crop too long.

“My caveat there is, if things don’t look a little bit better by April and May be ready to sell them,” he says.

The Outlook For 2026 Acreage
Langemeier says there are few to no new production options for row crop farmers in the Midwest to embrace for next year.

“So, when push comes to shove with the plantings in 2026 you’re still looking at about 180 million acres of corn and soybeans,” he anticipates.

If the export outlook for soybeans doesn’t improve, more acres will go to corn because demand is strong despite low prices.

“Corn is firing on all cylinders with good demand from ethanol, good demand from the feed industry, and good demand from exports,” he says.

China's Trade War Playbook Keeps U.S. Soybeans Sidelined

Fri, 24 Oct 2025 18:35:25 GMT

As combines roll across soybean fields at the start of harvest, exports typically pick up. Vessels ladened with the U.S. oilseed usually begin heading to China, with the bulk of shipments made between September and January.

That’s not shaping up to be the case this year.

Not a single order for the U.S. soybean crop was placed by China at the start of harvest in September.

At about the same time, Brazil set a record for shipments to China – with sales of 2.474 billion bushels of soybeans – from January through August 2025, reports Michael Langemeier, Purdue University ag economist.

Brazil soybeans have accounted for approximately 93% of China’s total soybean imports this year, to date, according to Brazil’s National Association of Grain Exporters.

‘A More Reliable Source For Soybeans’
Langemeier expects Brazil to continue supplying the majority of China’s import needs for soybeans, a transition he says has been underway since the last round of U.S.-China trade tensions in 2017-18.

“Brazil has become a more reliable source for soybeans, if you will, than the U.S.,” Langemeier says.

He does anticipate U.S. soybean exports to China will resume eventually but not at previous levels.

“I don’t believe it’s going to go to zero – people ask me that all the time – but it’s going to be something less than what it was prior to 2025,” he says.

A large percentage of U.S. ag economists agree with Langemeier. In the latest Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor, when they were asked, ‘Do you believe U.S. agricultural exports to China will return to pre-trade war levels (e.g. 2017) in the future,’ 88% of economists responded no. Learn more here: Ag Economists Warn of Lingering Farm Economic Strain: ’Not the 1980s, But Close’

The ability of Brazil to capture more of China’s soybean business and improve its government policies pertaining to agriculture, in general, frustrates Steele, N.D., farmer Chase Dewitz.

“There’s so much progress going on there in agriculture in Brazil, outside of all the market share they’ve taken from us,” says Dewitz, referencing the country’s ethanol industry. “And here we just sit. We just keep getting backed into a corner here.”

China Prioritizes Its Own National Interests
Sandro Steinbach says China’s refusal to buy U.S. soybeans this fall is less about economics and more about politics.

“China is making a calculated move to limit its dependence on the United States,” says Steinbach, associate professor and director of the Center for Agricultural Policy and Trade Studies at North Dakota State University.

“If Chinese leaders see Washington as a strategic threat, they have the resources to pay a little more for Brazilian soybeans or draw down state reserves,” he contends. “It’s about control and national leverage, not about getting the cheapest beans.”

Steinbach adds, in an effort to not be overly reliant on either Brazil or U.S., Beijing is also working to reduce its overall need for imported soybeans through domestic feed policy changes.

“Our latest analysis shows Chinese feed mills are exploring ways to lower the share of soybean meal in livestock rations, with limited pilot programs already underway in several provinces,” he says. “If those efforts expand, even small cuts in feeding intensity could trim import needs, but they come at a cost. Lower-protein rations reduce feed efficiency and could hurt China’s livestock productivity over time.”

Faith Parum, American Farm Bureau Federation economist, points out that the ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China aren’t limited to soybeans. She says China has not “purchased any U.S. corn, wheat or sorghum this year, and pork and cotton exports continue only at reduced levels.”

USDA projects that U.S. agricultural exports to China will total $17 billion in 2025, down 30% from 2024 and more than 50% from 2022. In 2026, exports to China are expected to fall to just $9 billion, the lowest level since the 2018 trade war, Parum adds.

Trade Talks Next Week Offer Hope
Jacquie Holland, American Soybean Association economist, says upcoming meetings between President Trump and China’s Xi Jinping at next week’s APEC summit in South Korea offer farmers some encouragement that trade between the two countries will resume soon.

“If we see a de-escalation of tariffs, then China will have financial incentive to buy cheap U.S. soybeans,” Holland says.

She adds that if Brazil farmers have any delays harvesting their crop early in 2026, the Chinese could face a potential supply crunch and move to source U.S. soybeans to bridge the gap.

“But our research suggests those volumes could be minimal, based on the high volume of South American purchases China has made so far in 2025, the capacity of their state reserves, the timing of China’s hog production cycles and negative Chinese crush margins right now,” Holland says.

Farmers across Brazil have begun planting the 2025/26 crop season, with expectations for another record in corn and soybean acreage, report Purdue Ag Economists Langemeier and Joana Colussi.

“In its preliminary estimate released on October 14, the National Supply Company (Conab) projected that Brazil’s soybean acreage will increase by 3.5%, reaching 121 million acres – the largest area on record. For comparison, U.S. farmers planted 81 million acres of soybeans in the current crop season,” Langemeier and Colussi write here .

If Trade Doesn’t Resume Soon, What Then?
Unfortunately, there is no one country or market that can absorb China’s lost U.S. soybean purchases.

“There are certainly opportunities for some market expansion, as evidenced by Japan’s sentiments to increase trade on Wednesday, but the biggest constraint is that demand outside of China is limited in the short-run,” Holland says. “Long-term, we are hoping to develop these markets, but that takes time and doesn’t provide immediate relief to U.S. farmers now.”

Looking ahead to next spring, farmers are likely to plant another huge corn crop if a trade agreement isn’t reached and soybean prices remain in the basement, Langemeier anticipates.

“In that scenario, if we have two big years of corn production back-to-back, you’re going to be looking at some very sick corn prices in the fall of 2026,” he says. “That’s a big concern. That worries me.”

Holland adds there are other factors to consider, as well. She believes soybean acreage next spring will also depend on usage factors like how quickly EPA finalizes 2026 and 2027 renewable volume obligations for biofuel blendings and how fast the U.S. can expand domestic livestock consumption and export sales for soymeal.

“With all of that uncertainty and sticky input prices, I wouldn’t blame farmers for picking lower risk acreage options next spring, and I’m guessing 2026 acreage allocations are going to rightly reflect that level of risk aversion,” she says.

Holland discusses the soybean trade outlook with China in detail with Chip Flory, host of AgriTalk, here:

From Corn to Cattle: Farmers Pivot to Create Profit

Thu, 23 Oct 2025 21:03:47 GMT

With commodity prices under pressure and input costs on the rise, many row-crop farmers are evaluating their options and looking for new revenue opportunities in the process.

For Troy and Stacy Hadrick, that required making a bold shift in their farming operation about four years ago. They started converting much of their South Dakota cropland to pasture and expanding their cowherd.

It’s a path no one would describe as easy. But as Troy puts it, “You’re going to do something hard if you’re in agriculture, so choose your hard.”

The Hadricks, based near Faulkton, say moving away from commodity corn, soybeans and wheat to a more direct, value-added beef production model is giving them more control over their product and their bottom line.

“We want to take ourselves out of the ebbs and flows of the commodity market, and we believe our beef business is viable long-term,” says Troy.

The Hadricks’ business includes selling beef direct to nine restaurants, a caterer, grocery store and even to a gas station that sells high-end meat. Learn more at hadrickranch.com/

Farmers Put Marginal Crop Ground Into Grass
As the Hadricks tried to decide whether to focus more on their beef business, and less on commodity grains, two things encouraged them to move forward with cattle: the marketplace and some of their land that’s prone to erosion.

“We started thinking about what could we do on some of this crop ground to be better stewards of that land – to think about it in a different purpose,” Troy recalls.

When the Hadricks learned about a Ducks Unlimited (DU) program that fit with their goals, they signed on to convert an additional 250 acres of cropland to pasture to feed cattle.

“They help cover the cost of that land while it’s sitting idle for a couple years, allowing the grass to establish,” Troy notes.

Bruce Toay, manager of DU conservation programs in South Dakota, says the organization is working with 58 farmers across the as part of its Working Grasslands Partnership.

DU provides annual payments to farmers for the first three years of their participation in the program, based on local CRP rates. After establishment, cooperators are able to utilize the forage by haying or grazing for the remainder of the 10-year commitment.

Payment rates reflect the land quality: in southeast South Dakota, where soils are more productive, rates can be $200 or more per acre. In the northwest part of the state, rates are usually $20 to $30 per acre.

“We can help install pipelines and tanks, and sometimes drill wells—whatever it takes to ensure a reliable water source,” Toay adds. “You can’t have a good grazing plan without water.”

Currently, South Dakota farmers have enrolled 12,000 acres with DU, which aims to expand the program to 25,000 acres. The program goes through 2029.

“We’re really pushing to find more interested cooperators and get more acres back into grass,” says Toay.

Beyond DU, other organizations investing in habitat restoration in regions of the U.S. include Pheasants Forever and Quail Forever .

More Short-Term Opportunities Wanted
While the Hadricks are finding success in a long-term strategy of moving to beef production, most U.S. farmers are exploring short-term revenue streams rather than a permanent exit from row crops.

Jay Parsons, an agricultural economist at the University of Nebraska–Lincoln, says that for most farmers, converting cropland to permanent pasture rarely pencils out—unless the goal is to leave row-crop farming altogether and sell off equipment.

“Otherwise, it makes a lot more sense to go with annual forages, because it’s easier to switch back to crops when markets change,” he notes.

In some scenarios, farmers rent their ground in the fall for cattle to come in and graze cornstalks, adds Mary Drewnoski, UNL professor and beef systems Extension specialist. Another common practice is to charge beef producers a fee to graze cattle on cover crops.

“That’s probably the simplest thing for a farmer to do – have somebody else come in with cattle and graze the fields,” she says. “Basically, you give them access and get a paycheck.”

Grazing rates can vary significantly. Drewnoski says going rate in the eastern part of Nebraska is $10 to $15 an acre. In the western part of the state, farmers can charge in the neighborhood of $30 an acre.

“It’s a matter of supply and demand, and there’s more demand there,” Drewnoski explains.

She believes row-crop growers based in any area that also supports cattle production can likely find ways to add revenue from grazing cattle, either their own animals or through leasing ground to local beef producers.

The one thing she says is of utmost importance to do in the process is to develop a clear, written lease agreement spelling out the details that can keep everyone on the same page and relationships intact.

Key terms to define in a lease agreement include the rental rate, payment schedule, specific stocking rate, along with a clear outline of responsibilities for fencing, water, and general pasture maintenance. The agreement should also cover conditions for renewal or termination and any provisions for insurance, recommends Purdue University Extension.

When executed well, Drewnoski says partnerships between row-crop growers and livestock producers can be mutually rewarding. “There can be real beauty in this if you’re a crop farmer and you find the right cattleman to partner with,” she says. “It can open up doors for you both to benefit.”

Your next read: Breeding for New Markets: How University of Minnesota is Working to Boost the Oil Content in Soybeans

A New Road for Soybeans: Building New Domestic Demand

Tue, 14 Oct 2025 13:33:17 GMT

The loss of China as a dominant buyer has left a hole in U.S. soybean demand that hasn’t been easy to fill. While export sales have held up better than expected elsewhere in the world, farmers and industry leaders are still asking the same question: Where will the next big wave of demand come from?

In an unexpected twist, some engineers in Iowa believe the answer might be right beneath our wheels and in the refineries used to fuel vehicles today.

A Parking Lot That’s Anything but Ordinary

From the sky, the parking lot at Iowa State University looks like any other — smooth, black pavement stretching across rows of cars. But a closer look reveals a surprising secret: this blacktop isn’t made with conventional petroleum products. Instead, it’s paved with soybeans.

“As a chemist, you look at the soybean molecule itself — it’s just an absolute dream,” says Eric Cochran, Mary Jane Skogen Hagenson & Randy L. Hagenson Professor at Iowa State . “It’s just a playground. There are so many different things you can do with it.”

For Cochran and his team, that “playground” led them to reimagine something as ordinary as pavement and, in the process, potentially open a powerful new market for American soybeans.

A Crisis Spurs Innovation

Soybean oil had been on the sidelines for decades, mostly used in food or as a fuel source. But around 2010, Cochran and his team discovered that the long molecular chains of soybean oil could be strung together to form elastic, rubber-like materials. Those properties mirror exactly what asphalt needs to survive the extremes of summer heat and winter freeze.

Traditionally, asphalt producers rely on synthetic polymers, particularly a petroleum-based product called SPS, to provide flexibility and strength. But in 2008, a global SPS shortage triggered a crisis in the asphalt industry. Just as panic was setting in, Cochran’s lab had an idea: What if soybean oil could fill the gap?

“It wasn’t long before [the Iowa Department of Transportation] was asking if they could try our new soybean rubber in asphalt,” Cochran recalls. “And things just kind of cascaded from there.”

From Pilot Plant to Proof of Concept

At first, the idea of soy-based pavement caught one civil engineers off guard.

“No, it was not on my radar at all,” admits Chris Williams, Gerald and Audrey Olson Professor in Civil Engineering at Iowa State University . “We had seen a lot of market increases in asphalt as supply was getting tight for demand. In the U.S., when we have an economic downturn, we correct that by investing in infrastructure. Everybody benefits — safer roads, better fuel economy, smoother rides and jobs.”

The team secured initial investment to build a pilot plant, their “first flag in the ground,” as Cochran puts it, proving soybean oil could be transformed into a durable, scalable pavement solution.

By 2018, that pilot plant produced its first soy-based asphalt. Over the next five years, with support from the Iowa Soybean Association and the United Soybean Board , the team ramped up production to showcase just how tough soy pavement can be.

“We formed a startup company in 2020,” Williams says. “We’ve worked out manufacturing issues, started getting customers, and now is really the time to take advantage of all this extensive testing.”

Consistency in a Volatile Market

Beyond its performance benefits, soy polymers bring something else to the table: predictability. Unlike petroleum-based polymers, which swing wildly with the energy markets, soybean oil prices are far more stable.

“When you look at price volatility of polymers, it’s a wide range,” Williams explains. “The consistency of soybean oil pricing is a lot less volatile. When you’re planning infrastructure projects four, five, 10 years out, lower volatility reduces risk and makes costs more predictable. That’s critical for how we invest in infrastructure.”

Soy polymers also fill critical supply gaps when refiners shift between crude petroleum and natural gas. When the market leans toward natural gas, the availability of butadiene, a key polymer ingredient, drops. Soy steps in to keep supply steady.

What’s Next? Rethinking the Refinery

Cochran and Williams believe the implications go far beyond the road surface. By redirecting soybean oil from fuel use to industrial materials, they say the U.S. can make its refineries more efficient and economically viable — at a time when refinery closures are becoming more frequent.

“Rather than burning it for energy, we could use it to really transform how the oil processing industry operates,” Cochran says. “Every ton of soybean oil we produce can become a permanent part of the pavements we drive on, and allow us to get more energy out of every barrel of crude oil.”

Williams notes there are just over 60 active refineries in the U.S., down from previous decades. Soy polymers could help keep these facilities competitive while enabling the production of more jet fuel and exportable products — boosting both rural and industrial economies.

From Fields to Freeways

While that might be more long-term, today, soy oil for asphalt is a reality. And years of research is finally paying off.

The researchers say each bushel of soybeans yields about 10.7 lb. of oil, and researchers are working on ways to squeeze even more value out of every drop. Their efforts have been fueled by farmer checkoff investments through the Iowa Soybean Association and United Soybean Board — groups that both Cochran and Williams say made the research possible.

It’s a road less traveled, quite literally. But this innovation is paving the way for a new domestic demand engine for U.S. soybeans — one that isn’t dependent on international trade flows or the whims of a single buyer.

And for farmers looking for the next “shining star” of soybean demand, the answer might already be under their tires.

Kansas Farmer Harvests Corn Yields 30%-Plus Above APH

Thu, 09 Oct 2025 22:02:41 GMT

For some Kansas corn growers like Matt Splitter yields are shaping up to be well above average this harvest, and maybe even a record – a welcomed change from the past two years, which were plagued by drought.

The central Kansas farmer says moisture at key times kept his corn crop growing early and then packing on test weight at the back end of the season. While he is grateful for the rains, he is ready for them to stop.

“We got another inch-and-a-half of rain, oh, two nights ago. So, we are picking around on some corn and trying not to get stuck,” says Splitter, a fifth-generation farmer based near Lyons.

After roughly 10 days of harvest, he estimates corn yields are coming in about 30% to 40% above his average production history (APH).

“Volume always wins,” Splitter says. “Prices are not great, but holy cow, we’ve cut more bushels in the first eight days of corn harvest than we probably have for the last two years combined because of drought.”

Despite the federal government shutdown, the U.S. Drought Monitor map and its associated products remain unaffected and will continue to be released on schedule, according to the National Drought Mitigation Center.

(NDMC)

Record Harvest Projected For 10 States
The USDA September forecast for total corn production projects U.S. yields will come in about 13% above last year, with 10 states expected to see record numbers.

In Kansas, farmers are likely to harvest a yield range of 131 to 146 bushels on average, according to Greg Ibendahl, an agricultural economist at Kansas State University. He calculated the yield range in early September using U.S. Drought Monitor data.

Even with the extra bushels, Splitter is concerned they won’t be enough for him and other Kansas farmers to completely resolve financial shortfalls.

“If we’d have come into this year on an even keel, this season would’ve been a home run on volume, but I don’t know if it’s going to cause us to get whole again,” he says.

Splitter estimates he and other Kansas farmers would need double to two-and-a half-times the bushels he’s combining to regain their economic footing.

“Financially, there’s a lot of holes that people are going to have to dig themselves out of. And I just don’t think we can. I don’t think we can bushel all our way out of it,” he says.

(Photo: Nick Hemphill)

Is Financial Aid On The Way?
The Trump administration is said to be preparing an aid package that would provide financial relief to farmers. Dollar ranges from $10 billion to $15 billion have been reported.

USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said on Fox News that “We will be announcing a program as soon as the shutdown ends on what we’re going to do in the short term for these row croppers, including our soybean farmers.”

Brooke Rollins: "Farmers just want to sell their product. They don't want checks from the government. But until we get there with all these new trade deals opening up markets by the president, onshoring our food supply for health reasons but national security reasons -- we will… pic.twitter.com/d00bTL7h8h
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) October 9, 2025

More than 200 state and national agricultural organizations sent a letter to President Trump earlier this week, saying many farmers need help now. To view the letter and those who signed it click here .

Splitter, like most farmers, wants the marketplace to reward him and other farmers for yield results and not a financial bailout. He adds that if aid does come out at the end of 2025, it won’t do as much good if he has to pay a huge amount of taxes on the dollars.

“We’re making decisions now to create income or mitigate losses, you know. There has to be something put into place where I can roll some of this into 2026, if I need to,” he says.

Hear the conversation AgriTalk host Chip Flory had on Wednesday with Splitter and Chad Ingels, Iowa farmer and representative:

Corn Growers' New Leader Says Profitability Is Top Priority

Wed, 08 Oct 2025 21:54:40 GMT

The new farmer leader for the National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) says profitability is his No. 1 priority as he starts his one-year term and plans for the year ahead.

“It’s just not where it needs to be at the farm level. We’re looking at a 90-some-cent loss per bushel as we look at next year’s crop to put out,” says Jed Bower, NCGA president and a fifth-generation farmer from Fayette County, Ohio.

While Bower says export numbers are good, he notes the market doesn’t reflect that positive picture, and more opportunity for U.S. corn is needed.

It’s why, during a recent conversation with USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins, Bower encouraged her to “go after the big players” domestically and abroad to boost market opportunities for corn.

“We need to move large volumes. The small volumes are great, but large volumes are going to be what helps rural America,” Bower told AgriTalk Host Chip Flory earlier this week.

For the same reason – to boost profitability – Bower says NCGA continues to encourage Congress to pass legislation that would increase consumer access to higher blends of ethanol year-round.

Corn grower leaders have repeatedly claimed that one of the quickest ways to create more demand for corn is by passing the Nationwide Consumer and Fuel Retailer Choice Act of 2025. It would remove an outdated regulation under the Clean Air Act that bans the sale of fuel with 15% ethanol blends during the summer months.

“We’re pushing for this E15 thing – almost had it over the line last December,” Bower says. “We’re close again, but there’s just so many things that aren’t going on in Washington right now that we need to keep having those conversations.”

Positive Action By California Governor Newsom
Significant encouragement regarding E15 came by way of Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-Calif.) just last week, when he signed a bill on Oct. 2 legalizing fuels with 15% ethanol blends.

“The potential volume for California alone is just tremendous,” Bower says. “I never thought I would be thanking the governor of California for signing that in, you know. That’s just not something that was on my radar, and I’m super pumped about it.”

Bower’s hope is the support Newsom gives for E15 puts leverage on the Trump administration and Congress to act immediately.

“Because, as we’ve talked numerous times, E15 cost taxpayers nothing,” Bower says. “It lowers the cost of gas at the pump for all their constituents, and for every 1% that we raise the blend, you’ve got 450-plus million bushels more grind. That helps make our corn worth a little more, and in turn, that strengthens rural America.”

The Need For More Trade And Fewer Regulatory Hurdles
During Bower’s time on AgriTalk, Flory asked him about his initial interactions with USDA Secretary Rollins and Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lee Zeldin.

Bower says Rollins “appears to be a quick study,” and he appreciates how much she is advocating in the world marketplace on behalf of U.S. agricultural products.

“I think that is huge,” Bower told Flory. “We’ve seen Brazil doing that the past couple years for their products, and beating us to a lot of punches. We really appreciate Secretary Rollins for taking the time to travel around the world to push American ag products.”

Regarding Secretary Zeldin, Bower says he looks forward to meeting him in the near future, and that Zeldin seems to be bringing “common sense” back to the regulatory playing field.

“A lot of these regulations drive up the cost of what we need to do as farmers,” Bower says. “Secretary Zeldin has been accessible to a lot of our staff, and I’m looking forward to diving into some of the regulatory issues we have and see if we can’t get a little more relief in some of those areas.”

For more insights into Bower’s perspective on market opportunities for corn and his hope for reducing regulatory pressures on farmers, be sure to listen to his conversation with Flory on AgriTalk, available here:

From Setback to Comeback: Sorghum Looks For More Market Opportunity

Tue, 07 Oct 2025 17:58:52 GMT

2025 has been a year of extremes for U.S. row-crop farmers, including grain sorghum producers. Many will harvest one of their best crops in recent memory – often referred to as milo – while they simultaneously endure some of the worst export markets agriculture has seen in the last four decades.

“There’s a lot of commodities that are hurting, I won’t deny that. But the loss of the Chinese market and any significant trade opportunities is more severe for sorghum than any other commodity,” contends Amy France, chair of the National Sorghum Producers (NSP).

That’s not rhetoric but reality for sorghum growers.

China historically purchased up to 90% of all U.S. sorghum exports. Those sales ceased in April, on the heels of tariffs and retaliatory tariffs. The remaining 10% of U.S. exported sorghum went to Africa to combat hunger. That market closed in January, when the Trump administration abruptly canceled the Food For Peace program.

Prices for the nutrient-rich grain dropped precipitously. Bids have been as low as $2.35 in key sorghum states, according to John Duff, founder of Serō Ag Strategies and a consultant to NSP.

For over a decade, China has been the No. 1 export market for U.S. grain sorghum. Countries in east Africa have been a distant second, while Mexico has been third. The National Sorghum Producers sees tremendous potential for trade with India. While the road forward will require patience it’s promising, as India became a net importer of coarse grains for the first time in modern history just last year.

(USDA)

Laser Focused On Opportunity
France is on a mission to move sorghum’s story from one of recent struggle to success. She’s working to identify new opportunities, expand upon those that exist domestically – such as with ethanol and gluten-free foods – and spur legislators to restore trade with China and other countries.

“We want trade first and foremost, but if we’re going to keep going with [these tariffs], then our farmers are going to need some help,” says France, who started her second term as NSP chair on Oct. 1.

The following week, in the midst of the federal government shutdown, France saw an opportunity for connection with legislators when others might have expected only closed doors. She flew to Washington, while NSP staff made calls to set up meetings with senators and representatives from the sorghum belt, which runs from South Dakota to South Texas, and includes Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Colorado.

“I want to ensure our producers and the next generation can continue to farm, and that equates to what we are doing on the Hill,” she explains.

A Fresh Perspective
France took a unique path to the leadership role for the NSP. The daughter of two music educators, she embraced agriculture when she met her husband, Clint, 25-plus years ago. They farm, along with their five children, near Scott City, Kan., growing corn, sorghum, wheat and black Angus cattle.

Through their local Farm Bureau, France recognized her passion for creating opportunity via agriculture policy.

“I always say Farm Bureau opened the door for me. I just got involved on the county level and then kept going. I’m not afraid to ask tough questions and dig deeper,” she says.

Some of France’s tenacity was inspired by her late father-in-law, Leon, who told her grain sorghum kept him from losing the family farm in the 1980s.

“He told me, when I went onto the board, it was the only crop he could afford to put in the ground, because it didn’t have as much input costs as other commodities, and he would reap a good harvest,” she recalls.

France keeps their conversation in mind as she works to build a better future for sorghum and the farmers who grow it.

“In navigating the current farm economy, I think about what crop can farmers afford to put in the ground and still reap a harvest? I believe sorghum is that for a lot of farmers,” she says.

“We have the best product – far and above better than what any other country can grow,” she adds. “We just need markets, and that’s what is top of mind for me.”

Your next read: New Seed Treatment Offers A Solution to Soybean Cyst Nematode

‘We Need Action, Not Just Financial Aid’

Tue, 30 Sep 2025 16:55:01 GMT

Caleb Ragland describes 2026 as a year of extremes, whether the focus is on U.S. trade policy for soybeans or initial crop yields coming out of his Kentucky farm fields.

The frustration in his voice was palpable as he multitasked on Monday, harvesting with one of his three sons, Carter, in the combine and talking with Chip Flory, host of AgriTalk, at the same time.

“Our corn yields are about 25% below APH (average production history) … and soybean yields are kind of all over the board,” says Ragland, a LaRue County, Ky., farmer and president of the American Soybean Association (ASA).

Poor yield outcomes are no surprise, Ragland says, given excessive spring rains that delayed planting. Then, the water faucet shut off mid-summer, just after July 4, and it never turned back on.

“I’m thankful yields aren’t lower than what they are,” he notes. “It’s disappointing but not unexpected.”

The same is true for U.S. soybean trade opportunities.

Ragland says the soybean industry and farmers have a “five-alarm fire” on their hands, due to the lack of sales to China this year.

Potentially adding to the flames was the Trump administration’s recent pledge of a $20-billion taxpayer-funded economic rescue package for Argentina.

The decision was questioned and criticized by lawmakers on both sides of the political aisle last week.

“Why would USA help bail out Argentina while they take American soybean producers’ biggest market??? We shld use leverage at every turn to help hurting farm economy Family farmers shld be top of mind in negotiations by representatives of USA,” Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) said on X, formerly Twitter.

Argentina Sells Shiploads Of Soybeans To China

The American Soybean Association reports that Argentina turned around and sold 20 shiploads of soybeans to China soon after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced the U.S. was exploring a financial package to shore up Argentine President Javier Milei.

Ragland believes the situation is just a continuation of what’s been going on much of this year: China doesn’t want to buy American soybeans due to ongoing retaliatory tariffs and trade disputes. In the process, U.S. soybean growers are caught in the middle between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and President Trump.

“Unfortunately, I think that’s the situation we’re in, and that doesn’t have a likely, quick, positive outcome,” he says. “But it’s pretty obvious that if we had the opportunity price wise, that our soybeans would sell, but I think that it’s likely a long battle that we’re in for here.”

Farmers Want Opportunity, Not A Handout

Ragland says ASA Economist Scott Gerlt estimates U.S. soybean growers will lose “well over” $100 an acre this year.

Furthermore, Ragland notes that rural communities are suffering from the lack of economic infusion that soybean sales and exports specifically to China would provide. He says when farmers spend money in their local communities, those dollars get turned over six to eight times, supporting small businesses and the entire rural economy.

One answer to the economic pain in rural America is an infusion of financial aid, Trump contends.

He told a group of reporters in Washington last Thursday his administration would “take some of that tariff money that we made, we’re going to give it to our farmers, who are, for a little while, going to be hurt until the tariffs kick into their benefit. So, we’re going to make sure that our farmers are in great shape, because we’re taking in a lot of money.”

Ragland says farmers don’t want to be dependent on the government for aid to meet their financial obligations. It’s a message he has said repeatedly this year in farmer and legislative meetings and to media.

“We have to have opportunities within the market. That’s key, but we’ve got to have a level playing field,” he says.

Even so, a farm aid package is likely in the works. According to an article posted to Politico Trump officials expect “Congress will need to authorize the use of tariff revenue for the farm aid package and are hoping lawmakers will include it in their omnibus package due by Nov. 21. That means the rollout of cash will likely start in early 2026.”

Your next read: Breaking Down the 4 Biggest Challenges Facing the Ag Economy

Breaking Down the 4 Biggest Challenges Facing the Ag Economy

Mon, 29 Sep 2025 19:15:37 GMT

Farm Journal’s Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor, an anonymous survey sent to nearly 70 ag economists each month, shows growing concern about the farm economy. “AgriTalk” host Chip Flory breaks down the latest results, pointing to four key findings.

1. Recession Calls Hit a Survey High

A record 91% of ag economists now say the farm economy is in a recession. That’s the highest level since the survey began, fueled by record input costs while commodity prices remain depressed. Still, about 10% pushed back, arguing that as long as farmland values hold strong, agriculture’s store of wealth remains intact and technically keeps the sector out of a recession.

“Basically what they’re saying is that we’re not going to be in a recession until we see land prices start to pull back,” Flory explains. “That’s where agriculture stores its wealth. As long as those land prices hold up … we are not going to be in a recession as long as that store of wealth remains safe.”

91% of ag economists say the crops sector of agriculture is currently experiencing a recession, which is a survey high.

(September Ag Economists’. Monthly Monitor )

2. Bleak Outlook for 2026

46% of ag economists say the economy situation is “somewhat worse off” compared to last month and 27% say it’s “much worse off” compared to last year.

(Lindsey Pound, September Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor )

While opinions about the next 12 months are mixed — 50% expect some improvement, 30% think it will worsen — the longer-term picture is troubling. Economists expect 2026 corn and soybean crops to be breakeven at best, with potential losses of up to $200 per acre.

“The expectations on the ’26 crops are that, at best, it’s going to be breakeven on corn and soybeans,” Flory says. “There’s expectations for losses up to $200 an acre among the survey respondents … We’ve drained a lot of working capital out of the industry already. And it’s really going to get tight in 2026 if this continues.”

Results from the latest Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lindsey Pound, Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor )

3. Soybean Exports Under Pressure

Economists see U.S. soybean demand as vulnerable. USDA currently projects 1.705 billion bushels in exports, but survey respondents say that’s a best-case scenario. Some expect exports could fall below 1.4 billion bushels, a 300-million-bushel drop that could be catastrophic.

“China is obviously doing everything that it possibly can to avoid buying U.S. soybeans,” Flory says. “The current USDA export estimate … is a best-case scenario that the economists expect. Some see it all the way down under 1.4 billion bushels. To take another 300 million bushels off of bean export demand might be catastrophic.”

There are still a majority of economists who think China will still buy soybeans from the U.S. this year, with 54% responding “yes.”

Even though China has bought zero new crop soybean cargoes from the U.S., more than half of economists still think China will come to the table in 2025.

(Lindsey Pound, September Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor )

4. Screwworm Detection Near Border Raises Concerns Over Mexican Cattle Imports

This week, New World screwworm was detected just 70 miles from the U.S.–Mexico border, sparking renewed debate over cattle imports and whether USDA should keep the border closed to live cattle imports.

In the September Farm Journal Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor, economists were asked: Should the U.S. reopen its border to cattle imports from Mexico? Eighty percent said no.

91% of ag economists say the crops sector of agriculture is currently experiencing a recession, which is a survey high.

(September Ag Economists’. Monthly Monitor )

Their concern is the risk of screwworm spreading to U.S. herds.

“It’s important we continue to protect the health of our beef herd. Screwworm could have a devastating effect,” said one economist.
“Each day of delay [on reopening the border] gives more time to develop effective treatments/response,” was another response.

With the U.S. cattle herd already at a 75-year low, screwworm infestations can cause massive losses in livestock, threatening both animal health and, according to economists, the ag economy.

The Bright Spot: Beef Demand Stays Strong

There is a bright spot. Despite record-high retail prices, which economists thought would taper the hunger for U.S. beef, beef demand is holding firm. Two-thirds of economists say beef demand is inelastic, meaning consumers keep buying even as prices rise.

Even with record retail beef prices, the majority of ag economists say beef demand is proving to be inelastic.

(Lindsay Pound, Ag Economsits’ Monthly Monitor )

“It’s quality. Quality is a big part of the reason why,” Flory says. “We’ve done an unbelievable job responding to consumer demands to put choice and prime beef in the meat case … Consumers recognize the improvement in quality, and they’re responding by continuing to buy beef. The other thing is … high protein diets. That is a real thing that we need to adjust to, not only in beef, but in pork too.”

You can see the full results of the latest Monthly Monitor here .

Is the U.S. Corn and Soybean Crop Getting Smaller?

Fri, 29 Aug 2025 18:31:26 GMT

From disease to drought, this 2025 crop has been thrown a curve ball late in the season. It’s also pushing the crop to maturity quicker. And with USDA projecting currently projecting a record yield and crop, many analysts say the U.S. crop is likely going backwards in terms of yield, but that doesn’t necessarily mean USDA will cut yield projections next month.

USDA’s August crop production report showed a record-high 2025/26 U.S. corn yield projection of 188.8 bu. per acre and a record-high soybean yield estimate at 53.6 bushels per acre.

But as AgWeb reported earlier this week , southern rust could take a big bite out of the U.S. corn crop this year. The disease is causing turmoil for farmers who have a large crop in the making. In some cases, a Hail Mary fungicide application at R4 up to early dent (R5) might make sense this season, say agronomists. But in severe cases, the disease can wipe out 45% of the yield potential in a field, according to the Crop Protection Network (CPN) .

A map of counties where Southern Rust has been confirmed or reported in 2025.

(CPN )

Add to that fresh concerns about drought, as the latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows drought is now covering 33% of the country. When it comes to agriculture, 5% of the corn crop is now considered in drought, 11% of the soybean crop and 30% of the cotton crop.

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey authored the Monitor this week, saying the drought picture has drastically changed over the past month.

“We’re seeing rapid expansion flash drought across the mid-south, lower Midwest into the Northeast,” Rippey says. “All of this drought has come on in just the last few weeks. At the end of July, we were virtually drought free in the Midwest, so to see these yellows and tans starting to light up, that is reflective of the overall dryness. Of course, it’s a different story in the West where we’ve got drought really deeply entrenched. But from the big picture here, a lot of focus on those developing drought areas from the mid-South into the northeast.”

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows how the dry August is impacting the drought picture across the country.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

Rippey says as the taps turned off for some areas, some portions of the Eastern Corn Belt are seeing their driest August on record. He says that dryness is extending westward into parts of the southern and eastern Corn Belt.

“Agriculturally, all eyes are on the Northern Mississippi Delta into the Ohio Valley and the southern Corn Belt. A lot of those areas are receiving less than half of the normal rainfall during the month of August. A few areas have less than 25% of normal,” Rippey says. “And with those taps turning off, that is depleting topsoil moisture. We’re going to have to wait and see with crop production in September to see how the crops have handled this late dryness.”

The map showing the percent of normal precipitation proves areas of the Corn Belt, West and Northeast have turned off dry to end the summer.

(Brad Rippey, USDA)

Rippey says, on a positive note, temperatures have remained mild. So, even though the moisture has been sparse or absent, at least temperatures didn’t amplify the situation. But a dry August is still a concern.

Impact on Yield
Peter Meyer, who helped lead Pro Farmer Crop Tour in the east last week, says with the amount of dryness that’s entered the picture —and the fact that disease has exploded in many Midwest fields over the past week — he thinks the crop is getting smaller, not bigger. But that’s something that likely won’t show up until USDA factors in test weight, which will be the October report.

“I think the crop has gone backward since [Pro Farmer] Crop Tour,” Meyer says. “When I start to look at some of these numbers for the month of August, it was extremely dry in many, many areas. We’re talking the top 10 or 15 dry years out of the last 150, 160 years. So, that’s why the crop ran out of gas. It had a lot of moisture. The heat was there. It pushed a crop further and faster. I think we have an issue.”

Meyer says based on those factors, he’s dropped his yield estimate from the 183 bu. per acre he personally projected during Crop Tour last week.

“But I’m still not below 180 [bu. per acre]. I think we’re going to have an early harvest, and I think we’re going to have an earlier harvest in beans, too. That’s represents a problem here as far as the market is concerned.”

“It definitely feels like it’s going backward,” said Jim McCormick with AgMarket.net on U.S. Farm Report. “When we talk to our clients, which we have some all across the country, they are really concerned about it. Probably a little bit more in the east and the west where we’ve seen some of the driest conditions in 130 years in parts of Ohio. Is it a disaster? No, but it’s definitely taking the top end off the crop.”

Dan Basse, who’s AgResource Company’s president and founder, agrees the U.S. corn and soybean crops could be losing yield, but he warns that it may not be a dramatic cut.

“I think its going backward, but maybe not to the degree that the farmer would like,” Basse said on U.S. Farm Report. “We dropped our yield estimate from 189.2 to 187.1 [bu. per acre]. So, we’re down a skosh from USDA, but this is still a big crop. And some of the early deal data we’re getting out of Kentucky, Missouri and Kansas is above what expectations were. When you think about this crop, southern rust is a bad disease if you get it into blister or early milk stage. But when it happens at dent, you’re looking at yield losses of zero to 4%. So, let’s hope that farmers applied one application of fungicide and that kept them until the crop got in the dent. I’m hoping that’s going to limit yield losses going forward.”

USDA’s next yield revision could come Sept. 12. That’s when the agency is slated to release its latest crop production report. But if you look at USDA’s methodology in September, which is to factor in ear counts and pod counts, Basse thinks USDA could potentially raise its yield estimate next month.

“I think, in general, they tend to grow a little bit bigger,” McCormick says of USDA’s historical pattern of yield estimates from August to September. “I mean, look at last year’s analog year. The crop was big in August, it got bigger in September, then again in October before they started revising it down. It would not be a surprise that they will go bigger, but there’s gonna be a lot of pushback, like Dan said, from the disease pressure. There’s going to be a wide range on the estimate for the September WASDE when it’s all said.”

Basse adds: “I wouldn’t be surprised if USDA raises yield next month. Even on the Pro Farmer Crop Tour, it showed us record ear counts and record pod counts. Those are the two most important ingredients for the September report. Now, in October, we’ll have more to know about pod weights and ear weights. But for September, I’m kind of expecting USDA is going to be a few bushels, if you will, from the August estimate. It’s the October report that will determine how big is big.”

$8 Soybeans? That's the Reality for Some Farmers as China Remains Absent From Buying

Tue, 26 Aug 2025 20:25:12 GMT

Farmers in the Northern Plains are facing cash soybean prices below $9, and with China absent from the soybean export market, $8 soybeans could continue to be a reality this harvest. In fact, Dan Basse, president and founder of AgResource Company, says the Chinese government is continuing to instruct Chinese importers to not buy U.S. soybeans. Until that changes, soybean prices are likely to remain low.

Even with Washington and Beijing extending a tariff truce for 90 days earlier this month, China hasn’t officially purchased a single bushel of new crop U.S. soybeans, something the U.S. hasn’t seen since 2010.

Similar to the previous trade war, it seems farmers are on the edge of the spear when it comes to the impact, with soybean prices sliding to levels well below break-even. With basis crashing, North Dakota seems to be hit especially hard. Just how low are prices?

In Maddock, N.D., basis is negative $1.65, with cash soybeans sitting at $8.83 on Tuesday.
In Carrington, N.D., basis is negative $1.45, which brings the price to $9.03 cash.

At those levels, farmers are looking at losing even more equity this year. The American Soybean Association sent a letter to President Trump last week warning of dire long-term economic outcomes for farmers if the country continues to not buy U.S. soybeans.

Also last week, Beijing’s ambassador to Washington specifically called out farmers, saying U.S. protectionism is undermining agricultural cooperation with China and warning farmers shouldn’t bear the price of the trade war between the world’s two largest economies.

Chinese Importers Are Being Told to Not Buy U.S. Soybeans
Last week, President Donald Trump urged China to step up its purchasing, posting on his Truth Social social media site.

“China is worried about its shortage of soybeans,” Trump wrote. “I hope China will quickly quadruple its soybean orders. This is also a way of substantially reducing China’s Trade Deficit with the USA.”

That single post caused soybean prices to surge more than 2%, but Basse says there is no sign of China following through on Trump’s ask.

“I cannot find China buying soybeans today,” Basse told U.S. Farm Report late last week. “I cannot find any evidence of anything changing. Secretary of Treasury Bessent indicated the negotiations with China are working well. Soybeans will be included in the final pact, which I think we all expected. But although the talk of China buying U.S. beans was evident today, I can’t find it in any of my commercial clients that they’ve made any sales.”

Basse says soybean importers aren’t just snubbing U.S. soybeans. They are specifically being told by the Chinese government to not buy U.S. beans.

“So, if you’re a Chinese importer or a Chinese crusher, you’ve been told by the government not to buy U.S. soybeans until they tell you to. This is how China works. Today the Chinese have a stronghold on buying United States soybeans, even though our prices are nearly $1 a bushel cheaper than what they’re buying in Brazil. This is the pressure that I believe the Chinese government is trying to apply on the Trump administration during a trade negotiation,” Basse says.

Farmers Can’t Afford Casual Trade Policies
China is the world’s largest soybean buyer, but as of late, it has been turning to Brazil for beans amid trade tensions with the U.S. To put it into perspective, Beijing bought 54% of U.S. soybean exports in the 2023/24 marketing year.

According to the American Soybean Association (ASA ), farmers can’t afford casual trade policies when China walks away from U.S. soy.

ASA points out China is the world’s top soybean buyer, and there’s no competition in that space. ASA says over the last five soybean marketing years, China has imported an average of 61% of the world’s traded soybean supplies — more than the rest of the world combined.

Smaller percentages of U.S. soybeans are going to China, according to USDA data.

(American Soybean Association )

In 2024, China was the biggest buyer of U.S. soybeans, with exports to China valued at $12 billion in 2024.

“China has not been shy about its strategies to circumvent freshly harvested U.S. supplies this fall. China imported record volumes of Brazilian soybeans between April and July 2025, growing domestic stockpiles of soymeal to the point at which Chinese soybean processors are facing negative margins,” ASA recently released in a report. “In early August 2025, traders announced a first-time export sale of Argentine soymeal to China to be delivered this fall to reassure Chinese feed mill buyers anxious about hog feed availability amid the ongoing trade dispute.”

Soybean prices

(ASA)

ASA says that’s equated to more than a $0.51/bu. (5%) price drop in less than three weeks.

“And it’s not just Chicago where the losses are piling up. In the Northern Plains, where the majority of the soybeans produced have traditionally been exported to China via the Pacific Northwest (PNW), there are currently zero orders for new crop soybeans on the books, according to BNSF Railway and exporters in the PNW,” ASA says. “Cash prices have tumbled across North Dakota, South Dakota and Nebraska as a result, with nearby basis in Alton, N.D., widening from -$0.95/bu. on July 15 to -$1.20/bu. on August 8 due to the lack of export buyers.”

ASA says the bottom line is time is running out — and farmers could pay the price.

Mike Steenhoek, executive director of the Soy Transportation Coalition (STC), agrees while there is time for China to still come to the table to buy, time is running out — especially considering the tariff truce in place is for another 90 days.

“The concern is there’s this November date when this pause will then be up for renegotiation, and that’s really starting to get pretty late,” he shared in an episode of “AgriTalk”. “This whole six-month period of time is really important to us. Not only are we looking for the volume of exports, but timing is really critical. That’s something we’re really trying to express to our state elected officials and decision makers.”

Steenhoek says it’s also important to note that China is a unique market. When the soybean industry strategized who the ideal customer would be for U.S. soybeans, the list was simple:

A country with a large population
Growing per capita income
Increasing demand for protein, like pork and poultry
A significant amount of cooking oil usage for frying foods

“When you look around the globe, there are some countries that maybe have two or three of those bullet points, but really none that have all of those bullet points, and particularly in the same font size, where China has them in really big font size,” Steenhoek says. “That kind of encapsulates, in a nutshell, why the Chinese market is so important to us. Yes, we have some diversity of our customers. When you take the imports of soybeans to China, they import more than all of our other international customers combined. That really just shows that, yes, we can diversify — but also we need the Chinese market.”

ASA points out harvest will be especially painful if the situation doesn’t change soon.

“The tariffs implemented this year have had a limited impact on soy to this point as they occurred outside the major export window. That is quickly changing. Combines will start rolling through fields in the next month to harvest soy. At that point, the lack of export bookings will quickly become problematic, as the main destination for the oilseed contains significant barriers. The problem will compound through the fall as more of the crop is harvested. By mid-October, almost half of the crop will be entering the supply chain,” ASA says.

Market analysts say if China would step up and start buying, it could change the soybean price picture almost overnight.

USDA Ends Consideration of Race, Gender in Many Farm Programs

Fri, 11 Jul 2025 18:14:31 GMT

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced an about face on Thursday with regard to how it will consider farmer applications for loans and programs, moving forward.

Specifically, the agency says it will no longer consider a farmer’s gender or race in the decision-making process for how dollars in such programs will be awarded.

The decision ends a longstanding effort by the agency and the Trump administration to address bias and discrimination.

“Moving forward, USDA will no longer apply race- or sex-based criteria in its decision-making processes, ensuring that its programs are administered in a manner that upholds the principles of meritocracy, fairness, and equal opportunity for all participants,” said acting General Counsel Ralph Linden.

According to the 2022 Census of Agriculture, roughly 4.5% of farmers are considered persons of color or of mixed race.

The New Rule Is In Effect

While many rules are posted as a draft first for public comment, agency officials posted this rule in its finalized form without soliciting input. The rule went into effect immediately, July 10.

“These actions collectively support the conclusion that past discrimination has been sufficiently addressed and that further race- and sex-based remedies are no longer necessary or legally justified under current circumstances,” a consortium wrote in the Federal Register.

The groups weighing in included: Office of the Secretary, Federal Crop Insurance Corporation, Natural Resources Conservation Service, Farm Service Agency, Commodity Credit Corporation, Rural Business-Cooperative Service, Rural Housing Service, and Rural Utilities Service, USDA.

Trump Administration Dismantles DEI Policies

The new rule is part of the Trump administration’s directives to dismantle diversity, equity and inclusion policies across the federal government.

In a prepared statement, USDA Secretary Brooke L. Rollins reprimanded former President Joe Biden and USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack, respectively, for looking at “any way possible to give taxpayer dollars to anyone they could based on the color of their skin, not based on merit or need.”

Rollins added, as long as she is Secretary of Agriculture, “when we find leftover Biden discrimination in our programs, we will hold those persons who have committed these insidious acts accountable and take swift action to correct these illegal actions.”

Previous Lawsuits Played A Role

In making the new rule, USDA referenced various lawsuits over its prioritization of racial groups.

Black farmers and other groups in agriculture have long alleged discrimination in the agency’s lending and farm programs. As recently as 2024, the USDA made payments to tens of thousands of farmers who experienced past bias.

In addition, white farmers, some backed by prominent Republicans, have sued the agency, claiming discrimination.

Your next read: Is This The Starting Point for A New Farm Bill?

U.S. Ag Trade Deficit Hits Record High In First Four Months Of 2025

Mon, 23 Jun 2025 21:02:20 GMT

Three years and counting – that’s how long U.S. agriculture has been in an agricultural trade deficit – reports Faith Parum, American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) economist.

“From January through April, the United States imported $78.2 billion in agricultural products while exporting just $58.5 billion. This $19.7 billion deficit is the largest ever recorded for the first four months of a year and signals that the 2025 deficit could surpass previous records,” Parum says in a new AFBF report .

(AFBF Calculations; USDA FAS)

In early June, the USDA raised its forecast of the U.S. agriculture trade deficit for fiscal-year 2025 to $49.5 billion, from the $49 billion it previously forecast in February.

Imports of high-value food items, such as fruits and vegetables, have driven the growing deficit, according to Parum, who says they represent the largest trade deficit category.

Have The Deficit Numbers Already Peaked?

While the forecast is concerning, Stephen Nicholson, Rabo AgriFinance global sector strategist for grains and oilseeds, says he is hopeful the agricultural trade deficit for 2025 has already reached its peak.

“My expectation is that we should see that trade deficit in agriculture come back a little because we have all this product, food, in our warehouses now, ready for consumers,” Nicholson told Farm Journal.

(USDA FAS GATS, USDA ERS Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade: May 2025)

Essentially, Nicholson says, many buyers made and imported larger food purchases than usual this spring to get those products into the U.S. ahead of potential trade tariffs the Trump administration announced would be imposed on Liberation Day, April 2.

“You know, when we saw that chart (from President Trump on the planned tariffs), I think a lot of us were pretty taken back by some of the eye-popping numbers we saw there. And then, of course, we came back a week later and they were cut in half.”

No One Knows ‘The Rules Of The Road’

Nicholson says the lack of certainty on tariffs, and other factors – ranging from conflict in the Middle East to high input costs and interest rates – has created challenges for all agricultural industries and farmers, including livestock producers.

“No one knows the rules of the road today,” he says. “Right now, no one wants to plan or invest or expend capital for plants, for expansion, because we don’t know what the economic environment is going to look like as we go six months to a year down the road.”

At the core of the problem is a rapidly evolving global marketplace that the U.S. appears increasingly ill-equipped to navigate, according to an article by Pro Farmer editors .

From shifting supply chains to aggressive trade strategies by key competitors like Brazil, Australia, and the EU, the landscape for ag exports is changing fast — and the U.S. is falling behind, they contend.

“We have no plan — none — to deal with this growing trade gap,” one senior industry executive says. “It’s not just bad policy; it’s no policy at all.”

Trade Deals Could Help The Situation

Farm groups continue to urge the White House to prioritize new trade deals that open markets for ag products.

But some industry insiders say the administration is too focused on broad tariff threats and “reciprocal tariffs,” while neglecting granular trade promotion and technical access issues that matter most for ag commodities, Pro Farmer reports.

At the grassroots level, Nicholson encourages corn and soybean to stay focused on market opportunities that could come up in the next week, given the weather conditions across the U.S.

“We’re in this very hot weather across the Corn Belt right now. If this forecast doesn’t quite pan out for the rest of the week, and more hot weather, and more rain or no rain, the market may react. Be prepared for those rallies in the market, and reward those rallies,” he encourages.

Your next read: Lift the Fog: 4 Drivers of Farm Profitability To Watch in 2025

Is The Trump Administration Trying To Make Trade Deals With Too Many Countries at Once?

Tue, 10 Jun 2025 20:35:01 GMT

The U.S.-China talks continued on Tuesday, as the Trump administration pushes to speed up the trade negotiation process. The U.S. sent a letter to trade partners as a “friendly reminder” that President Trump’s self-imposed 90-day pause on sweeping “reciprocal” tariffs is set to expire July 9.

While some news reports framed the letter as an ultimatum, other reports have described the letter as a way to steer ongoing trade talks rather than an ultimatum.

Either way, trade negotiation progress to date has been slow. The only agreement so far has been with the United Kingdom (UK) and called the U.S.-UK Economic Prosperity Deal (EPD), a framework agreement announced by President Trump in May.

Specific to agriculture, the EPD includes commitments to remove the UK’s 20% retaliatory tariff on U.S. beef and offers duty-free quotas for U.S. beef and ethanol. However, the agreement is not legally binding.

Too Many Countries At The Table

Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) said on Monday that part of the challenge is the Trump administration is trying to negotiate with too many countries at one time.

“You’re having real serious negotiations with 18 countries, including China, South Korea, Japan, Europe, England, Indonesia, India – all of those are big trading partners of ours. But instead of trying to do 18 all at once, I would like to have you bring some certainty and the impression that you’re accomplishing something, reach an agreement with one or two and announce it,” Grassley advised. “That’s what I think would be good.”

The senior senator from Iowa, serving since 1981, said he is concerned about how the protracted trade and tariff discussions are impacting the U.S. economy.

“You keep reading in the business newspapers and publications about the fact that business is holding up making decisions because they don’t know what’s really happening out there in the trade world,” he said. “And if you have these big tariffs that go up [on July 9] … I think it just slows down the economy, I guess is the best way to say it.”

Does Congress Need More Authority Over Tariffs?

In a discussion on AgriTalk , Host Chip Flory asked Grassley whether Congress should have more say on whether and when tariffs are used by the U.S.

“Yeah, we made a big mistake back in 1974,” Grassley replied, referencing the Trade Act of 1974 , a significant step Congress took to delegate more tariff authority to the executive branch.

“Once [authority] is delegated away, I’m telling you, it’s hard to get it back, because unless you have a two-thirds vote of Congress to get it back, you’ve got to count on the president giving up any authority that Congress has given them,” he said. “And I’m not talking just about Trump. I’m talking about any president in the past or any president in the future. They’ve got this power and are not going to want to give it up.”

It’s one reason why Grassley said he decided to co-sponsor a bill with Washington Democratic Sen. Maria Cantwell that would require presidents to justify new tariffs and secure congressional approval within 60 days; otherwise, the tariffs would expire.

Grassley said he was working on the bill before the current trade tariff issues became a major focus.

“It’s not affecting what Trump’s doing right now. I know he won the election, he has a mandate to do what he’s doing, and I hope he’s successful,” Grassley told Flory.

If passed, the “Trade Review Act of 2025” would require congressional approval of tariffs proposed by the executive branch.

The bill restores Congress’ authority and responsibility over tariffs as outlined in Article I, Section 8.

Under this legislation, the president must notify Congress of the imposition of (or increase in) the tariff within 48 hours. The notification must include an explanation of the president’s reasoning for imposing or raising the tariff and provide analysis of potential impact on American businesses and consumers, according to the bill’s text .

“In the future, the way I [see this] is the president puts on a tariff, and within 60 days Congress can review it, and we can reject it,” Grassley said.

During the wide-ranging discussion on AgriTalk, Grassley also weighed in on the budget reconciliation bill (the “one big, beautiful bill”), saying progress is being made. He expects the Senate to have a bill ready for review by the end of the week.

Grassley said the bill would include provisions likely to be supported by the Senate Agriculture Committee. Hear more of the key highlights, including Grassley’s expectations on reference pricing and funding for exports on AgriTalk:

Your next read: What’s Missing in the Big Beautiful Bill When It Comes to Agriculture?

Commodity Brokers Call CFTC's Proposal to Expand Ag Futures Trading to 24/7 a 'Nightmare'

Fri, 23 May 2025 16:23:05 GMT

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is proposing to expand agricultural futures trading hours to a 24/7 schedule. CFTC says the change would make the market more vibrant, while brokers and commercial hedgers say it would lead to more volatility and more costs.

CFTC says the proposal is one that better reflects the changing dynamics of the markets.

“As I have long said, the CFTC must take a forward-looking approach to shifts in market structure to ensure our markets remain vibrant and resilient while protecting all participants,” says acting Chairman Caroline D. Pham. “One evolving trend is the move to 24/7, 24/6 or 24/5 trading hours. I look forward to the public comments on this market innovation.”

According to the National Grain and Feed Association (NGFA), who opposes the change, the move to expand trading hours would increase costs and spur more volatility.

“Our members have been clear — expanding trading hours to 24/7 would disrupt current risk management practices, increase operational costs, and create unnecessary exposure,” says Mike Seyfert, president and CEO of NGFA, an organization with commercial hedgers as part of its membership base. “We hope the CFTC will recognize that longer trading hours do not equal stronger markets.”

The proposal is currently in a comment period. In NGFA’s feedback and formal letter, the organization listed five reasons why it is against the proposal, including:

Spreading liquidity across a wider trading time frame would create unnecessary volatility, potentially widen bid/ask spreads and expand potential for market manipulation.
The underlying cash market does not trade 24/7, thus having futures markets open for more hours while cash markets are closed would create additional exposure and risk for our members.
Its members perform their daily reconciliation functions when markets are closed. This function is critical in managing risk and exposure in cash markets.
A pause in trading in futures markets is essential for physical deliveries. This pause allows those involved in physical deliveries to assess what is changing in cash markets as well as in futures markets and ultimately their delivery economics. NGFA says that actions in the delivery market are what lead to convergence, and convergence is a critical function of the agricultural futures contracts that benefits it members.
Staffing costs for its members would unnecessarily increase to add monitoring of futures markets during the expanded weekday hours and weekends.

Market Analysts Weigh In

Brian Splitt of AgMarket.net agrees with NGFA’s analysis, saying expanded trading hours has been tested before in livestock, and it led to more volatility.

“It sounds like a nightmare to me,” Splitt said on U.S. Farm Report. “There’s a reason that the exchange tightened the trading hours for livestock. We used to trade livestock overnight, similar to what we do with the grains, and the volatility was just ridiculous. It didn’t take a lot of contracts to make the market move quite a bit. And so, I think the market just needs a rest period. I don’t see a reason why the market needs to trade 24 hours a day.”

Splitt argues the markets need some type of pause, especially with fewer traders who participate in the overnight markets. And with fewer traders, it takes fewer individuals to influence the market, which Splitt argues is dangerous.

“I agree with Brian, I think it’d be horrible,” says DuWayne Bosse, a farmer who also is the founder of Bolt Marketing. “I think the trading hours are actually too long right now. We have this kind of long pauses in between market news that the market just gets pushed and shoved by algos and volume traders, and that makes what I would call kind of wrong technical pictures on the chart. So, I think it would be a mistake.”

Comments on the proposal, which could be submitted electronically through the CFTC Comments online process , were accepted through May 21.

China Plans 'World's Biggest Export Terminal' For Brazil Amid U.S. Trade Talks

Thu, 15 May 2025 12:53:55 GMT

The ongoing U.S.-China trade discussions and decisions are important to Matt Splitter, but the central Kansas farmer says they can be a challenge to stay current on day-to-day.

“You know, I can’t keep up. Everything’s kind of flipping and flopping all day, every day,” says Splitter, who farms near Lorraine.

At the end of the day, Splitter, like a lot of farmers, says he wants to see the two countries stop sparring over trade and find mutual opportunity.

“I’m a very optimistic guy, so anything that we can do to resolve trade issues, for sure, would be great,” he told Chip Flory, host of the AgriTalk Farmer Forum , on Wednesday.

A 90-Day Roll Back On Tariffs
The United States and China agreed on Monday to drastically roll back tariffs on each other’s goods for an initial 90-day period. Specifically, the U.S. will temporarily lower its overall tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, while China will cut its levies on American imports from 125% to 10%, according to a joint statement by the two countries.

In the process, they also acknowledged, “the importance of a sustainable, long-term, and mutually beneficial economic and trade relationship.”

Tim Burrack, who farms in northeast Iowa near Arlington, says he’s concerned by the continued trade turmoil and how it’s impacting farmers and U.S. agriculture at large.

“If Trump can pull this off with China, and they’re back in the market, I will be a Trump supporter wholeheartedly,” Burrack says. “But right now, China and Brazil are getting together. They’re going to build infrastructure, and they’re going to make SAF and they’re going to build railroads, and it’s not good for us and our future. That’s why we need new markets.”

China To Build World’s ‘Biggest Export Terminal’
China’s state firms are already major investors in South America’s energy, infrastructure and space industries, according to the Council on Foreign Relations.

The Wall Street Journal reported on Monday that COFCO, a Chinese state-owned food processing holding company, plans to build the world’s biggest export terminal in Brazil to substitute U.S. soybeans and other foodstuffs. The Council on Foreign Relations adds that China has surpassed the United States and is now South America’s largest trading partner.

“[South America] is excited, you know. China’s just coming to them, and they’re coming to China,” Burrack says. “[These trade agreements] are going to be a tough nut to crack for the future.”

A High Level Of Financial Anxiety
Splitter told Flory he’s “pretty negative currently” on the state of the U.S. agriculture economy. “We don’t have good prices. Crop insurance guarantees are down. I mean, it could be devastating,” Splitter says.

That refrain is one Flory says he’s hearing repeated by farmers across the country.

“I think there’s a high level of financial anxiety out there among the younger producers, and it may not just be the younger producers,” Flory says. “I’m hearing it almost every day now, from producers from Ohio to Missouri to Kansas. I’m hearing it across a wide range, and I think it’s real.”

Splitter says he thinks about his marketability, in terms of whether he might want to take an off-farm job. “Every day you’re back on the farm, and you’re your own boss, you become a really bad employee for somebody else,” he says, only half joking.

“There’s nothing else I’d rather do [than farm], but when a single entity, let’s say the government, is causing this much pain and anxiety in your life, I mean, that’s not right,” Splitter adds.

Flory looked to Burrack, a longtime Iowa grain farmer, to provide some perspective for Splitter.

“I understand everything he said, it’s for the love of farming,” Burrack says. “We love it so much, sometimes we’ll do it for nothing. Once you survive the ‘80s, if you survived the ‘80s, you can survive this. And you know, I’ve never been a fan of creating this much turmoil, but maybe Trump’s plan will come to fruition.”

Trade Discussions Are To Continue
Looking ahead, the U.S. and China have agreed to establish “a mechanism to continue discussions about economic and trade relations,” led by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, according to the joint statement the countries released.

No timeline has been set for additional trade talks, as of Wednesday afternoon.

“These discussions may be conducted alternately in China and the United States, or a third country upon agreement of the Parties. As required, the two sides may conduct working-level consultations on relevant economic and trade issues,” the countries’ joint statement added.

Hear Burrack and Splitter weigh in with additional thoughts regarding trade on the latest AgriTalk Farmer Forum . They discuss their planting progress, tech issues that have held up the process, and share some thoughts on the Iowa State Senate vote against a CO2 pipeline via eminent domain.

Your next read: May WASDE Changes The Outlook For New-Crop Markets

Land Values Show Signs Of Softening, But Farmers And Small-Town Investors Remain Bullish

Thu, 08 May 2025 19:56:09 GMT

The land market across the Midwest continues to show strength in the second quarter of 2025, though there is a bit of price softening showing up in some areas.

“We have historic low supply and good demand, so that has really kept prices at a pretty stable level,” said Colton Lacina, vice president of real estate at Farmers National Company (FNC), based in Omaha, Neb., on Thursday.

“Looking across the different land groups, land is probably down 1% to 2%, but farmland has been on an upward trend for the last three to five years and is still strong. This is the first year recently of it turning a bit to the negative side, though nothing extreme,” he added.

Across the industry, FNC reported in January that land listings are down, on average, 25% from the active and accelerating value market experienced between 2020-2023.

Trends In Bellwether States
Lacina said higher interest rates, lower commodity prices and ongoing trade disputes have contributed to the slight downward movement of farmland values. The small reductions in value have shown up in key farming states, including Illinois and Iowa.

The 2024 Iowa State University Land Value Survey, released in mid-December, reported a 3.1% drop in farmland prices last year, bringing the average price per acre down year to $11,467.

“This decrease marks the end of a five-year trend of rising land prices, which included dramatic annual increases of 29% and 17% in prior years,” wrote Brooke Bouma Kohlsdorf, for American Farmland Owner .

While the nominal value in Iowa is lower than in 2023, it remains above 2022 levels. That reflects the lingering strength in the market today despite the correction, Kohlsdorf wrote.

In Illinois land values are likely to see a 3% decline in 2025, according to Nick Paulson, Gary Schnitkey and Carl Zulauf at the University of Illinois. However, they said multiple arguments for continued strength in farmland values could also be made.

“First, farmland remains an attractive asset with total returns (current plus capital returns) that are competitive with other asset classes, particularly over longer holding periods,” the Illinois economists wrote in a farmdoc Daily article last November. Second, turnover rates for farmland are expected to continue to remain low meaning that purchase opportunities are scarce. Finally, as farm operations continue to expand and alternative uses for farmland continue to grow, demand for an asset in fixed or declining supply will continue to remain strong.”

A report by the National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries shows that U.S. farmland delivered an annualized return of 10.2% over the past 30 years , outperforming many traditional real estate assets.

Farmland has been a solid investment for the long-term.

(National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries)

Off-Farm Investors In Play
Lacina said he sees farmland purchases remaining strong this year with farmers and nonfarmers alike, noting he is seeing an uptick in off-farm investors, which he said fall into two different camps.

“We have institutional investors, and then we have what we call more of a local investor, and we’ve seen a lot more local investor interest in the last month,” he noted. “Potentially a businessman or businesswoman in town, who maybe own the hardware store, and are looking to diversify and get into farmland,” he said.

With the ongoing turbulence in the stock market, Lacina said he expects interest from buyers in rural communities to continue as land is seen as a stable investment for the long-term. He also doesn’t anticipate farmers will stop buying land, either, as the opportunities to purchase local parcels arise. Many farmers are paying cash.

“We’re still seeing a lot of cash transactions with our largest buying group, which is the agricultural producers,” he said. “We do see some farmer land purchases being financed, but I’d say most are still cash buys.”

Three additional types of individuals and organizations Lucina said he sees buying farmland now include:

1. Individuals interested in growing their own produce and/or developing a local market for produce. “There’s definitely an increase in demand for smaller acreages that are going into large gardens for what I call micro-farming,” Lacina said.

2. Recreational activities continue to drive land sales in many areas. “Individuals are looking to get out of the city and have 80 acres and a little cabin. We’ve seen strong demand there, and I don’t see that falling off, really,” he said.

3. There is increased demand by individuals and companies that want to use solar energy. “The wind business has slowed down, while solar has picked up,” Lacina said.

He pointed out that there are two different kinds of land purchases commonly made for solar. One is individuals who either want solar for their own home or as an investment in supplying local communities. The second type is for a corporation’s use.

“Geographically, there are certain areas where that’s really hot right now. Some areas in Illinois have seen a lot of activity. Also down in South Texas, with the new data centers being built, we’re seeing a large request for land around those data centers for solar,” Lacina explained. “There’s increased demand for electricity, which can take years to come on the grid if you have to build a coal plant or a nuclear plant, and solar is much quicker.”

Lacina said spring historically is the slowest sales period for the land market year-over-year, and that has been true for 2025.

“As we work through summer here and into the early fall, we will probably see an uptick in supply,” he said. “How big that supply is going to be, we don’t know, but we believe there will be more opportunities coming to market.” Those opportunities have the potential to benefit buyers and sellers alike, he added.

Get more of Lacina’s insights about land values and where they’re headed on AgriTalk .

Your next read: Farmers Back U.S. Efforts To Rebalance Trade With China Despite Economic Hardship

Farmers Back U.S. Efforts To Rebalance Trade With China Despite Economic Hardship

Wed, 07 May 2025 21:34:47 GMT

Willing to endure short-term pain for long-term gain might best describe U.S. farmers’ current sentiment regarding ongoing trade and tariff troubles with China and other countries.

Bill Flory, who grows wheat in northern Idaho near Lewiston, said he likes how the U.S. is handling current negotiations with its trade partners, especially China. Officials from the two countries are set for talk trades this weekend in Switzerland.

“I’ll just say that the Trump administration is doing some excellent, excellent heavy lifting, a lot of tough negotiations that will have direct and indirect impacts on production ag,” Flory said on Wednesday.

A similar sentiment appears to be shared on a broad scale by U.S. farmers, according to the latest Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer, which was released Tuesday.

The Barometer, a nationwide measure of the health of the U.S. agricultural economy, showed improved farmer outlook in April, climbing 8 points to a reading of 148. This was driven by farmers’ optimism, despite their ongoing concerns about the impact of trade wars and tariffs, reported Jim Mintert, emeritus professor of economics at Purdue University.

“The improvement in farmer sentiment came as a bit of a surprise to us,” Mintert said.

As he dug deeper into the survey results, he was able to identify how farmers were thinking about their finances in the present as well as the future.

“When farmers were asked about what tariffs might mean for their finances in 2025, over half (56%) said they believe there’s a good chance that tariffs will reduce farm income in 2025,” Mintert reported.

“But when we came back and asked them how they feel about tariffs’ impact on the ag economy from a long-term perspective, 70% said they think tariffs will be beneficial long-term to U.S. agriculture,” he added.

Farmers Want Trade To Pay Their Way
Illinois farmer Chad Leman said he is glad to see trade “back in the conversation” at the national level. “We haven’t had any trade talks for the last number of years, and now we’re talking trade again,” said Leman, a third-generation farmer raising corn, soybeans and hogs near Eureka, Ill. “As always with this administration there’s a lot of noise, and you have to try and figure out where it’s headed. But it also brings some volatility to these markets, which, if we play that correctly, can be beneficial to us.”

Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins has promised to have a plan, such as the Market Facilitation Program (MFP), ready for farmers, if needed. In 2019, MFP provided direct payments to producers impacted by retaliatory tariffs that resulted in the loss of traditional exports.

“Everything is on the table right now. Everything. I know that President Trump, whom I speak with regularly, realizes the state of the farm economy in this country,” Rollins told Farm Journal earlier this year.

Market Facility Program Outlook
Both Leman and Flory expressed their dislike for Market Facility Programs and other financial relief-type payments to farmers.

I’m probably swimming upstream a little here, but I really hate to hear talk about another MFP,” Leman said. “I really wish we could get through this without a subsidy of some sort. I wish [the U.S. government] would focus more on the commodity credit loans or something. I mean, we’re looking at 7% borrowing interest on operating right now. And if they would look more at low interest money to get farmers through, I think that would be a win-win for farmers, and it sure looks better from a public perception standpoint,” he added.

The Ag Economy Barometer reported that more farmers believe an MFP could be on the way. “Eighty percent of farmers surveyed say they think an MFP is likely, if [trade talks] cause lower prices for ag products,” Mintert said.

“It’s the market, not a subsidy that we want to put the priority on,” Flory emphasized, recalling the Trump administration’s negotiations with China during his first term.

“The first Trump administration had a large trade deal with China, though China did not fully uphold their quantities and the terms,” Flory said. “But talks with China are extremely important, because they have been such a large [buyer of U.S. commodities], and South America is taking advantage of that.”

Given the ongoing financial upheaval in commodity markets and other economic uncertainty for agriculture, Mintert said the Ag Economy Barometer picked up on increased farmer interest in getting a farm bill passed in 2025.

“For a while there we didn’t have very many people too worried about a farm bill. Now, 45% of the farmers surveyed said it’s very important that a farm bill be passed in 2025, and another 27% say it’s important,” Mintert said. “When you put those two percentages together, you’ve got 72% of the people surveyed saying a farm bill is important. That wasn’t true a year and a half, two years ago. People weren’t worried about a farm bill then. That’s really changed.”

Flory and Leman were part of the Farmer Forum on AgriTalk on Wednesday. Get the full conversation here .

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