Election

30 Minutes With Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins In Her First Week On the Job

Wed, 19 Feb 2025 21:13:59 GMT

Since Saturday, Nov. 23, 2024 , Brooke Rollins has been focused on how to build the teams and the plans that impact the trajectory of agriculture and rural America. On that day, while en route with her husband and four teenagers in their motor home to Auburn, Ala., for the Texas A&M football game, she got a call from now President Donald Trump. The purpose of his call: She was his top choice to fill his final significant cabinet position, Secretary of Agriculture.

Obviously, she had to wait for confirmation, which came last week on Feb.13 when the Senate overwhelmingly confirmed her as the 33^rd Secretary of Agriculture , but since that Saturday before Thanksgiving, she’s been on the go with an accelerated enthusiasm to understand the significant challenges facing rural communities that lost 147,000 family farms between 2017 and 2022 and why the cost of inputs are up 30% as exports are down $37 billion this year and likely to fall further in the months to come.

“This is a crisis, and this is something that I understand inherently,” Rollins said to kick off Top Producer Summit in Kansas City on Tuesday. “My promise to you is this, and my commitment will never waver, that every minute of every day for the next four years I will do everything within my power, with hopefully God’s hand on all of us and our work, to ensure we are not just entering the golden age for America, as my boss, President Trump, likes to say, but we are entering the golden age for agriculture.”

What Has Rollins Been Up to the Past Four Years?
Secretary Rollins and President Trump have worked together for almost eight years. She was in the West Wing with him for years two, three and four of his first term running his domestic policy agenda.

“This real estate guy from New York City brought that vision to life, and then in the last term, was able to really do some remarkable things,” Rollins said in regard to President Trump returning power to the people who just want a chance at the American dream. “I call it the great pause, the four years in between term one and term two. But I think the great pause allowed very intentional planning. It allowed a courageous and bold leader in President Trump to become a fearless leader and to do everything he can to bring America back to greatness.”

In the “dark days of January 2021,” as she described, Secretary Rollins helped launch the America First Policy Institute, a think tank established by former Trump officials to promote conservative policies. The idea was that those policies that made America great in Trump’s first term would continue indefinitely, not just for a second term, but for four years, eight years or 36 years, Rollins described.

First Week On the Job
Since being confirmed last week, Secretary Rollins has been in the Washington, D.C., USDA office for a few hours, but most of her time has been spent in Kentucky at National Farm Machinery Show in Louisville and Gallrein Farms and in Kansas visiting Finney’s County Feeder, High Plains Ponderosa Dairy and the National Beef Packing Plant .

Describing herself as “a reader and a studier,” Rollins seems adamant to hear firsthand from farmers and ranchers. She referenced her visits to the dairy farm and National Beef facility as inspiring, in a good way but also in a way that helps her understand the real challenges at hand.

Speaking to the crowd at Top Producer Summit, she shared her appreciation for the “entrepreneurial American game changers” who are doing their part to feed the world.

“It is so inspiring and a reminder of the very beginning of our country.” Rollins said. “Our revolution was fought by farmers, our Founding Fathers, like Thomas Jefferson and George Washington. The backbone of the great American experiment is this community.”

Thank you @topproducermag for hosting @RogerMarshallMD and me in Kansas City, Missouri, with 1,000 of the Top Producers from across the US to talk about issues like expanding trade access and cutting regulatory red tape for farmers.

Biden’s ZERO trade deals and inflationary… pic.twitter.com/ejMxKxkRMG
— Secretary Brooke Rollins (@SecRollins) February 19, 2025

Farmer Q&A
Watch and listen to what Secretary Rollins, as well as Sen. Roger Marshall of Kansas, had to say on stage at Top Producer Summit about these 7 topics:

Trade and tariffs — “ Let’s go barnstorm the world , and let’s go find some more trade partners and access [to market opportunities],” Rollins said.
Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) efforts and modernizing USDA — “DOGE is a very valid and important effort across all government. The stories of waste and abuse were really just, not USDA specific but across government, beginning,” Rollins said.
Federal programs, such as CSP and EQIP — “Our commitment is that if there have been commitments made, those will be honored. Getting our arms around all of that right now is really, really, important. Again, going back to the President’s heart and commitment to our farmers, I feel confident we will be able to solve any issues that are in front of our ag community, that are potentially being compromised by the DOGE effort, while at the same time recognizing how very, very important it is,” Rollins said.
Future of USDA — “There’s no question USDA needs some modernization. I’m just beginning to lean into that as well,” Rollins said. USDA has 106,000 employees and 29 departments. “The Secretary is taking over a department where only 6% of the [D.C.] people work in the office,” Marshall added.
Renewable fuels — Prior to President Trump’s first term, he was “the first major candidate to support biofuels, and I think that carried him through Iowa in many ways. … We’ve got E15 year-round. I think that gives us some certainty as well. … The President is supporting that. I think we’re trying to figure out how to save 45Z, but we can’t let China benefit from it. Right now, China is benefiting more from [45Z] than my farmers and ranchers are, so we’ve got to fix that,” Marshall says.
Immigration policies and availability of long-term labor — “I have a full-bodied understanding of the challenges within the labor market, and I believe the President does too. … I believe that we will very soon be talking about it again. Clearly, the H-2A program needs significant reform, and Lori Chavez-DeRemer, she’s going through the [confirmation] process right now. … Hopefully she’ll get her vote very soon. We’ve got a lot of work to do,” Rollins said.
Trump’s cabinet members — “Our cabinet is comprised of people that have been working together and have been friends and colleagues for years, with a few exceptions. Bobby Kennedy is a new friend, but Lee Zeldin and I worked together in America First Works and America First Policy Institute for the last almost four years, Linda McMahon in education and John Brooks — these are our people,” Rollins said.

Do Tariffs Work? Leading Ag Economists Weigh In

Mon, 03 Feb 2025 17:00:00 GMT

Tariffs are a tool used by President Donald Trump during both his terms. But do they work? Not even ag economists are in alignment, as the answer seems to be: It depends.

This past weekend, Trump signed three executive orders for tariffs , the first time a president has used powers granted under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977. The orders also include retaliation clauses that would ramp up tariffs if the countries respond in kind. Trump cut the levy on imports of Canadian energy to 10%.

By Monday morning, Trump had agreed to delay tariffs on goods from Mexico for one month to allow more time for negotiations. The agreement happened just hours before the tariffs were set to take effect.

President Claudia Sheinbaum said U.S. tariffs against Mexico will be delayed for one month after a conversation with Trump on Monday. Trump then confirmed the news on Truth Social.

Which Input Could Be Impacted Most by Tariffs?

Tariffs on the U.S.'s top three trading partners could have a major impact on agriculture. The January Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor asked economists which input is most at risk. The top answer was fertilizer.

Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lindsey Pound)

“From a headline standpoint, it’s probably potash,” says Samuel Taylor, farm inputs analyst, Rabobank. “We get 85% to 90% of our potash from imports from the Canadian market. The residual is made up by Russia and Israel, in principle, with some other markets coming in.”

One day after Trump announced he would move ahead with planned tariffs, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stated tariffs targeting $30 billion in American products, such as alcohol, produce, household goods and industrial materials, will roll out in two phases starting Feb. 4, the same day the U.S. tariffs are set to begin.

The tariffs on the other $125 billion worth of goods will come in 21 days to allow impacted Canadian companies to adjust their supply chains. Trudeau emphasized Canada’s response would be “strong but appropriate,” while also considering non-tariff measures such as restrictions on critical minerals.

Do Tariffs Work?

With tariffs and a potential trade war brewing that begs the question: Do tariffs work?

It’s something Farm Journal asked the nearly 70 ag economists part of the Farm Journal Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor. The survey asked economists: “Do tariffs work in trade policy?” Economists views were mixed:

“Tariffs can work in trade policy — that’s why nations continue to use them. The complex part that extends beyond the tariff action is potential long-term repercussions that can result from trade flow changes.”
“In limited cases, typically only if they result in a policy response in the targeted country. Much of the time, tariffs are like cutting off one’s nose to spite one’s face.”
“Tariffs provide short-term gains but have always failed relative to free trade in the long term.”
“Absolutely, when properly applied.”
“Not over the long term. They tend to affect who gets to supply different markets around the world.”

The Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor also asked: “When tariffs are used as a ‘tool’ in trade, who pays the tariff?” Not all economists were aligned on that answer either, saying sometimes it’s farmers and consumers, but it can also be the exporting countries.

“When the U.S. imposes tariffs on imports, importers in the U.S. pay taxes to the U.S. government on their purchases from abroad. When another nation imposes tariffs, importers in that nation pay import taxes to their government on their purchases from abroad. Often, when a tariff is implemented, another nation retaliates, and you end up with importers in both nations paying the price on whatever products the tariffs apply toward.”
“If an importing country places a tariff on the exporting country, producers in the exporting country and consumers in the importing country both lose (i.e., receive lower and higher prices, respectively). Conversely, producers in the importing country and consumers in the exporting country win (i.e., receive higher and lower prices, respectively).”
“In the short run, consumers who purchase goods with a tariff might see higher prices if the tariff is not absorbed elsewhere. In the long run, the tariff might result in changes to the supply chain that result in higher prices but also create other economic opportunities in America (e.g. reshoring of domestic manufacturing).”
“The correct economist answer is: It depends. Tariffs drive a wedge between prices in the exporting country and in the importing country. It depends on the circumstances of particular markets and how much is reflected in higher prices in the importing country and reduced prices in the exporting country.”
“Both the exporting nation and the importing consumer pay some portion of the tariff depending on who has more flexibility to adjust to trade barrier. If exporting countries can easily switch to supplying other markets, they won’t have to ‘pay.’ If consumers can easily find cheap substitute goods, they won’t have to pay.”

Reports Now Say Trump to Tap Texas Native Brooke Rollins For Agriculture Secretary

Fri, 22 Nov 2024 19:53:21 GMT

Brooke Rollins, president of the America First Policy Institute, has officially been selected to serve as USDA Secretary. President-elect Donald Trump made the announcement Saturday, saying her “commitment to support the American farmer, the defense of American food self-sufficiency and the restoration of agriculture-dependent American small towns is second to none.”

Rollins is the president and CEO of the America First Policy Institute (AFPI), a think tank established by former Trump officials to promote conservative policies. AFPI has advocated for curbing foreign ownership — particularly from China — of U.S. farmland, an issue with bipartisan support in Congress. She served as the president and CEO of the Texas Public Policy Foundation (TPPF) from 2003 to 2018, where she significantly expanded the organization and positioned it as a leading state-based think tank.

During Trump’s first term, she served as the Director of the Domestic Policy Council and Assistant to the President for Strategic Initiatives. In these roles, she was instrumental in shaping key domestic policies across various sectors.

Rollins has strong ties to key figures in Trump first administration, including his son-in-law Jared Kushner. Her relationships within this network might facilitate collaboration on agricultural policies and initiatives.

Educational Background
Rollins holds a degree in agricultural development from Texas A&M University and a Juris Doctor from the University of Texas School of Law. She graduated cum laude with a Bachelor of Science in Agricultural Development from Texas A&M University in 1994, where she also became the first female student body president.

Her educational credentials are complemented by her practical experience, having grown up on a farm in Texas.

Rollins thanked Trump on X (formerly Twitter) Saturday following the announcement, saying: “It will be the honor of my life to fight for America’s farmers and our Nation’s agricultural communities. This is big stuff for a small-town ag girl from Glen Rose, TX — truly the American Dream at its greatest,” Rollins said in her X post.

Thank you, Mr. President, for the opportunity to serve as the next U.S. Secretary of Agriculture. It will be the honor of my life to fight for America’s farmers and our Nation’s agricultural communities. This is big stuff for a small-town ag girl from Glen Rose, TX — truly the… https://t.co/h91Zx3eEgl pic.twitter.com/DLgxrmZhH6
— Brooke Rollins (@BrookeLRollins) November 23, 2024

Given her educational background and professional focus, Rollins has developed insights into agricultural policies, trade issues and rural development, which are critical for USDA’s mission.

3 Key Focus Areas
In her new role, Rollins is expected to focus on several key areas, including:

Support for American farmers. Rollins has expressed a strong commitment to advocating for American farmers, emphasizing food self-sufficiency and the revitalization of agriculture-dependent small towns.
Trade policies. A significant challenge will be managing Trump’s proposed tariffs on imports, which aim to boost domestic production but could disrupt critical export markets for U.S. farmers. Rollins will need to navigate these complex trade dynamics while supporting agricultural interests.
Rural development. Her background and personal connection to rural America position her well to address issues affecting rural communities, including economic development and food assistance programs.

Of all the incredible notes and well wishes and good lucks I have received over the last 24 hours, the one that perhaps means the most came from Gary Rosenbusch, my ag teacher at Glen Rose High School who changed my life forever.

When people ask about my upbringing in a tiny… pic.twitter.com/VTQXPTtVMd
— Brooke Rollins (@BrookeLRollins) November 24, 2024

Bottomline:

Rollins is going to be an impact player in the Trump administration. And will be highly effective on issues impacting ag and food that are in the purview of other Federal Departments and agencies.

Her nomination reflects Trump’s broader strategy of appointing loyalists with deep ties to his administration as he seeks to advance his economic agenda in a potential second term. Her leadership at AFPI has prepared her for this role, aligning with Trump’s vision of prioritizing American interests in agriculture and beyond.

As she steps into this pivotal position, Rollins will be tasked with not only implementing agricultural policies, but also addressing the challenges posed by current trade practices and supporting the livelihoods of American farmers amidst changing economic conditions.

Last-Minute Change?

Trump also had considered nominating former Georgia Sen. Kelly Loeffler, whom he has already tapped to co-chair his inaugural committee, to serve as Agriculture Secretary, CNN reported Friday. CNN initially said Trump was poised to offer the post to Loeffler, who reportedly met with the president-elect at Mar-a-Lago on Friday afternoon.

CNN said there had been several discussions between Loeffler and the transition team regarding the position. “But Trump held off from announcing his Agriculture pick as he issued a slew of others Friday night, raising questions about whether Loeffler was ultimately offered the post.”

Trump’s Cabinet Nominees Now Up Odds for Expanding U.S. Trade/Economic War with China

Wed, 20 Nov 2024 17:07:41 GMT

President-elect Donald Trump’s selection of Howard Lutnick, the CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald, as Commerce Secretary highlights plans to leverage tariffs in trade negotiations, with Lutnick emphasizing their use as both a revenue source and bargaining tool.

Lutnick has called the tariffs a negotiating tool that could be used to convince other countries to bring down their own levies or to force companies to move production to the U.S. He has said Trump would avoid taxes on products U.S. companies don’t make.

Commerce oversees the International Trade Administration, an agency in charge of enforcing trade laws and investigating unfair trade practices.

The appointment raises questions about the role of Robert Lighthizer, a prominent China hawk and decoupling advocate, who might still secure a key position such as National Economic Council leader or ambassador to China. The nomination marks Lutnick’s transition from co-chair of Trump’s transition team to a pivotal role in shaping U.S. economic policy.

Of note: Trump said that the Commerce Secretary would have “additional direct responsibility for the Office of the United States Trade Representative.” The phrase means that Trump may try to fold the latter position within the Commerce Department, a move that has been tried before to combine government trade work.

Trump’s trade agenda is heavily focused on imposing substantial tariffs, particularly targeting China. He has proposed a 60% tariff on Chinese goods and 10-20% tariffs on imports from other countries. Lutnick has been a vocal supporter of these tariffs, suggesting they could replace income tax revenue over time. He believes that by making American businesses more competitive through tariffs, it could lead to lower overall tax rates.

Lutnick’s vision aligns with Trump’s historical approach to trade, which emphasizes protectionism to bolster U.S. manufacturing and reduce reliance on imports. During a recent rally, Lutnick remarked that America’s economic prosperity in the early 1900s was due to tariffs rather than income taxes, indicating his belief in a return to such policies. Lutnick has said the incoming administration would use tariffs as a bargaining chip with other countries. “We’ll make a bunch of money on the tariffs, but mostly everybody else is going to negotiate with us,” he said on CNBC.

Lutnick’s appointment signals an aggressive stance on trade that could lead to increased tensions with trading partners. The Commerce Department plays a crucial role in enforcing tariffs and negotiating trade agreements, which may become contentious under Lutnick’s leadership. Economists have expressed concerns that such high tariffs could lead to retaliatory measures from other nations, potentially resulting in higher prices for consumers and disruptions in global supply chains.

On China, Lutnick has accused the country of being the source of fentanyl in the US, saying that “China is attacking America from its guts.” Kevin Chen, associate research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, told the South China Morning Post, “There is little question that he will push forward with tariffs That being said, he has also suggested that the tariffs could be used to negotiate trade deals with other countries,” he said. Chen suggested that the choice of Lutnick —alongside other China hawks joining Trump’s team including Marco Rubio as secretary of state and Mike Waltz as national security adviser — could be “very dangerous for U.S./China relations” given the Commerce Department’s oversight of export controls.

“Lutnick is likely to focus tariffs on China’s manufacturing sector, especially for goods that the U.S. already produces. The likelihood of this leading to another U.S./China trade war is too high to ignore,” he said. “Lutnick fits in well with the trend of Trump’s cabinet picks … [as] he’s a China hawk who shares Trump’s strong views on the threat posed by China and how to address it.”

Asked about Lutnick’s nomination, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian said he would not comment on U.S. internal affairs but added that a trade war “will not produce any winner and is in no one’s interest.”

Treasury Secretary Possibilities

Trump is taking a closer look at Sen. Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.) to potentially serve as Treasury Secretary, Axios reports. Hagerty, a former private-equity investor who was Trump’s ambassador to Japan, is one of three apparent finalists, along with former Fed governor Kevin Warsh and Apollo CEO Marc Rowan. The Treasury position is key as the Cabinet member will play in a key role in major issues, including:

Rising federal debt
Enacting Trump’s tax cut plan
Helping implement Trump’s tariff plans
Coming up with pay-for plans
Keeping inflation low
Implementing 45Z and other biofuel tax incentive programs (IRS)

U.S. businesses brace for potential Trump tariffs.

American companies are accelerating inventory orders ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration, fearing the implementation of his proposed tariffs on imports. Trump has suggested levies of 10-20% on all imports and up to 60% on Chinese goods. Firms are also strategizing for potential impacts, including price adjustments and diversifying away from Chinese manufacturers, the Wall Street Journal reports ( link ).

Tariffs and Pricing Impacts

Walmart acknowledged the retailer would probably raise prices on some goods if Donald Trump moves forward with plans to enact sweeping tariffs. Walmart’s CFO John David Rainey stated that prices on some items may increase but it is uncertain which products might see price hikes due to the tariffs. A Walmart spokesperson indicated that any price changes are speculative, but future tariff-induced costs could burden sensitive shoppers.

Lowe’s words were more circumspect, with the home-improvement retailer’s executives noting tariffs would lift costs but also saying they were waiting to see what happens when the new administration takes office in January.

Walmart said shoppers are resilient but are still spending more on food than they have historically.

Lowe’s said homeowners are still waiting for lower interest rates to embark on big home-improvement projects.

Your Next Read: Could Trump Actually Be Good for U.S. Ag Trade?

Ag Groups Say Stabenow’s Lame-Duck Farm Bill is Lame; Gets Lambasted for Timing, Details

Tue, 19 Nov 2024 21:05:00 GMT

Most farm bill observers wonder why Senate Ag Chairwoman Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) even bothered to release text of her long-awaited farm bill at this late date , especially after seeing its contents. Even always optimistic House Ag Chair GT Thompson (R-Pa.) signaled it’s time to focus on a 2018 Farm Bill extension by year’s end.

Sen. John Boozman (R-Ark.) characterized Stabenow’s dead-before-arrival measure as “insulting.” Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) released more extensive and biting remarks, saying:

“This morning, Chairwoman Stabenow released her Farm Bill text — a 1,400-page document that no Republican committee member has reviewed or had the opportunity to collaborate on. This is not a sincere or transparent effort to address the urgent needs of Rural America. Instead, it is a last-minute power play in the final hours- manipulating her majority power in the Senate Ag Committee before losing the gavel. Today’s move shows that Senate Democrats have walked away from meaningful bipartisan negotiations that are a tradition in this committee and have opted to play politics with the livelihoods of hard-working farmers and ranchers at a time when Rural America needs real solutions… With farmers facing record decreases in net farm income, we must put FARM back in the Farm Bill by increasing crop insurance coverage and reference prices for the American farmer.”

Stabenow offered the Republicans very little other than agreeing to language regarding Commodity Credit Corporation funding restrictions, thereby boosting the farm bill baseline. But she gave nothing on her must-not-change items dealing with food and nutrition and conservation funding. Stabenow previously chided the GOP House plan on CCC as using “magic math and wishful thinking” but now she is willing to use that same math for CCC and put it toward some additional funding.

More on Stabenow’s CCC Flip-Flop

The bill would provide $39 billion in increased funding by restricting USDA’s use of the CCC from 2025 through 2030 unless the department has congressional authority. The bill says the CCC “is authorized to use its general powers only to carry out operations as Congress may specifically authorize or provide for.”

The Congressional Budget Office would be directed to estimate the savings of the provision at $6.7 billion per year. As we previously noted, the provision could potentially restrict the ability of the Trump administration to provide aid offset the impact of retaliatory tariffs.

She told reporters her bill “embraces” the Republicans’ method of paying for increased commodity program funding, referring to the CCC restriction. She said the bill also would provide $2 billion in payments to farmers faster than they get them now under the 2018 Farm Bill.

Now What?

The death knell has sounded on the latest attempt to get a farm bill this calendar year, a fate most thought would be the case after Stabenow didn’t release text of her bill after the House Ag Committee, with the help of some Democrats, cleared its version in May.

It took Stabenow over five months to release the anemic farm bill version filed on Monday. Efforts are now gaining momentum to get a market price relief measure as part of some must-pass legislation yet this year.

The hope is that farmer payments under that legislation (similar to but likely different from a measure by GOP Rep. Trent Kelly of Mississippi) will be built into a new farm bill baseline, providing more funding whenever farm-state lawmakers pick up the Stabenow pieces and actually get serious about writing a farm bill in 2025, or even 2026.

With Thompson remaining as House Ag Chairman in the new Congress, and Boozman taking the top Ag gavel in the Senate, a more serious attempt at an omnibus farm bill is very likely, especially dealing with likely new Senate Ag ranking member Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) who has a track record of working across the aisle. She is also less fixated on specialty crops than Stabenow is, and instead will focus on corn, soybeans and wheat, key crops in Minnesota. Klobuchar said on the Senate floor Monday that lawmakers should do “anything we can” to finish a new farm bill by the end of the year.

Disaster Aid More a December Timeline Than November

Despite the Biden administration asking Congress to provide $24 billion in aid to the U.S. ag sector, as part of a $98.4 billion disaster aid package, Congress will likely modify key provisions when they return after a one-week Thanksgiving break. Look for farm-state lawmakers to include specific language on the operation of the coming ag disaster funding to avoid how USDA implemented the last aid to farmers.

Of note: Of the $24 billion for agriculture $21 billion would allow USDA to compensate farmers and ranchers for crop and livestock losses. This is significantly above the around $14 billion in disaster aid recently cited by a USDA official.

More on timing:House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said Monday that lawmakers will now “go to work” evaluating the disaster aid request, noting that estimating recovery costs is “a deliberate process.”

With many Republicans campaigning on reducing federal spending, there could be some debate about portions of Biden’s request. Meanwhile, the Senate Appropriations Committee is expected to hear Wednesday from the heads of several of the government agencies that would receive funding through Biden’s request.

It’s possible that emergency aid could be attached to any spending bill designed to keep federal agencies operating after current funding expires Dec. 20. But disaster aid will probably be packaged with a stopgap at the end of the calendar year, senior appropriator Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) told reporters.

“There’ll be some back and forth, and I’d imagine it probably would all ride on the end,” Capito said.

New Names Surface for Trump's Secretary of Ag Pick; Here's the Complete List

Mon, 18 Nov 2024 17:00:32 GMT

Agriculture continues to await President-elect’s announcement on who will be named the next U.S. Secretary of Agriculture. As the list continues to evolve, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is reportedly playing an active role in the cabinet selection.

As AgWeb first reported last week, there were originally 15 people being considered for Secretary of Agriculture. North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum has since been tapped by Trump for Interior Secretary. He will also lead the newly created National Energy Council. And Senate Ag committee member Cindy-Hyde Smith (R-Miss.) says she plans to stay in Congress.

With one addition to the original list, that leaves the 14 possible picks for the next Secretary of Agriculture:

Charles Herbster. A Trump donor who led his 2024 rural campaign coalition, Herbster is a fifth-generation farmer, born and raised in Falls City, Neb. Today, he is CEO and President of Carico Farms, Herbster Angus Farms and the Conklin Company. Trump appointed Herbster as his National Chairman of the Agricultural and Rural Advisory Committee.
Texas Ag Commissioner Sid Miller. Serving in this role since January 2015, Miller was born in 1955 in De Leon, Texas and has deep roots in the state’s agriculture industry. He is a cattle rancher, a farmer and owner of a commercial nursery business. He served six terms as a member of the Texas House of Representatives from 2001 to 2013. Miller was first elected as Texas Agriculture Commissioner in 2014 and re-elected in 2018 and 2022. He granted “amnesty to cupcakes” as his first official action, drawing attention to the repeal of a ban on junk food in schools. Recently, he issued an executive order allowing Texas farmers to use water from the Rio Grande for irrigation to address water shortage concerns. Miller has faced criticism. He awarded significant bonuses to staffers and created high-paying positions for political allies early in his tenure. Miller has recently been sounding the alarm about water shortages in Texas, particularly in the Rio Grande Valley.
Sarah Frey. She is the founder and CEO of Frey Farms, a company she established at the age of 16. Frey grew up on a struggling farm in southern Illinois as the youngest of 21 children. At the age of 15, Sarah started her own fresh produce delivery business using an old pickup. Several years later, she took over the family farm, which was facing foreclosure, and purchased it outright. This bold move marked the beginning of her entrepreneurial journey in agriculture. Under Sarah’s leadership, Frey Farms has grown into a major agricultural enterprise: It is now the largest producer of pumpkins in the U.S. The company owns approximately 15,000 acres of farmland across seven states. Besides pumpkins, Frey Farms produces watermelons, cantaloupes, sweet corn and hard squash. She is an advocate for better health initiatives, nutrition policies and economic opportunities for underserved rural communities. In 2020, she published a best-selling memoir, The Growing Season: How I Built a New Life—and Saved an American Farm.
Ray Starling. A prominent figure in agriculture policy and law with extensive experience in both the public and private sectors, Starling currently serves as the general counsel of the NC Chamber and president of the NC Chamber Legal Institute. In these roles, he sets litigation strategy and leads public policy development, focusing on issues affecting businesses in North Carolina. Previously, Starling held several high-profile positions in the federal government, including chief of staff to U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue; principal agriculture adviser to the president of the United States at the White House; and special assistant to the president for agriculture, trade and food assistance on the White House National Economic Council . He also worked as chief of staff and chief counsel for U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis. He grew up on a century family farm in southeastern North Carolina.
Aurelia Skipwith Giacometto. She is an American attorney, businesswoman and biologist who served as the director of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) from 2019 to 2021. She began her career at Monsanto in 2006, working her way up to sustainable agriculture partnership manager. When confirmed as the director of the USFWS on Dec. 12, 2019, she became the first African American to hold this position before leaving office on Jan. 19, 2021. She currently serves as the Secretary of the Louisiana Department of Environmental Quality since January 2024.
Gregg Doud. He served as the chief agricultural negotiator with the rank of ambassador in the Office of the United States Trade Representative, confirmed by the U.S. Senate on March 1, 2018. In this role, Doud was responsible for conducting and overseeing international negotiations related to trade in agricultural products. His background is deeply rooted in agriculture as he grew up on a dryland wheat, grain sorghum, soybean, swine and cow-calf operation near Mankato, Kan., which he remains involved with today. Doud is currently the president and CEO of the National Milk Producers Federation (NMPF). Prior to joining NMPF, he worked at Aimpoint Research, a global intelligence firm specializing in agriculture and food.
Kip Tom. The Indiana farmer transformed his family’s farm, Tom Farms, into one of the largest farming operations in the state. From April 2019 to January 2021, he served as the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations Agencies for Food and Agriculture , based in Rome, Italy. Tom was named the 2007 Top Producer of the Yea r by Farm Journal. Also of note, he helped celebrate Donald Trump’s victory on election night at The Mar-a-Lago Club.
Abel Maldonado. Said to be at or near the top of possibilities, Maldonado was the California Lt. Gov. from April 27, 2010, to Jan. 10, 2011. He is the oldest son of immigrant field workers and grew up working alongside his father picking strawberries to help support the family. He ran unsuccessfully for California’s 24th congressional district in 2012 and briefly ran for governor in the 2014 election. He was considered for USDA Secretary by Donald Trump in 2017, but was not ultimately nominated. He is currently the owner of Runway Vineyards in Santa Maria, Calif.
Former House Ag Chairman Mike Conaway. Now a private consultant, Conaway is the only person not in office who has negotiated a farm bill, led an investigation resulting in debunking the Russia hoax, turned USDA upside down to investigate where all the debt relief and climate money has gone, knows rural America, and aligned with Trump on needed SNAP reforms.
Current House Ag Chairman Rep. Glenn Thompson. The Republican U.S. representative currently serves Pennsylvania’s 15th congressional district and is the chairman of the House Ag Committee. Prior to entering politics, Thompson had a 28-year career in healthcare. He worked as a therapist, rehabilitation services manager and licensed nursing home administrator. Thompson was first elected to Congress in 2008, representing Pennsylvania’s 5th congressional district. In 2018, due to redistricting, he began representing the 15th district. In 2018, Thompson supported new work and job training requirements for SNAP (food stamp) beneficiaries. Thompson has been actively involved in crafting the 2024 farm bill.
Zippy Duvall. Since January 2016, he has served as the president of the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF). Duvall is a third-generation farmer from Georgia with deep roots in agriculture. He operates a farm in Georgia, currently raising beef cattle and broiler chickens and produces more than 750,000 broilers per year with his wife, Jennifer. Prior to his role as AFBF president, Duvall served as the president of the Georgia Farm Bureau for nine years.
Rep. Thomas Massie. The rebel House conservative is one most consider a long shot choice, but his name surfaced on social media last week. Massie was interviewed by Tucker Carlson in June, where he talked about his “off-the-grid home” on his Kentucky farm where he has chickens and grows food on his property. More recently, Massie has been promoting the benefits of raw milk versus pasteurized milk.
Ted McKinney. Currently, McKinney serves as CEO of the National Association of State Departments of Agriculture. Before that he was Undersecretary of Agriculture for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs (2017 to 2021) and director of the Indiana State Department of Agriculture (2014 to 2017). McKinney worked for 19 years with Dow AgroSciences and 14 years with Elanco, a subsidiary of Eli Lilly and Company, where he was director of global corporate affairs.
Jimmy Emmons. The senior vice president of climate-smart programs for Trust In Food, Farm Journal’s sustainable agriculture division , who is currently on leave of absence from Farm Journal, is also a nationally recognized no-till farmer, regenerative rancher and soil-health expert. He leads Trust In Food’s national programs to accelerate the adoption of conservation agriculture. Emmons and his wife, Ginger, own and operate Emmons Farm in Leedey, Okla. Prior to Trust in Food, he was regional coordinator for USDA’s Farm Production and Conservation, where he supported operational and business functions across the Farm Service Agency, Natural Resources Conservation Service and Risk Management Agency.

Of note: If Trump makes his selection soon, it will be quicker than previous nominations for the position. Trump’s previous USDA secretary nomination, Sonny Perdue, did not occur until Jan 19, 2017, the day before inauguration and more than two months after the election. Under the Biden administration, multiple news sources reported then President-elect Joe Biden selected Tom Vilsack as his nominee for Secretary of Agriculture on Dec. 9, 2020.

Burgum As Energy Czar

Burgum, who’d previously been in the running for possible Agriculture Secretary, was named Trump’s energy czar in addition to leading Interior. This announcement came Friday. Burgum, North Dakota governor and former software executive, is positioned to become a pivotal figure in U.S. energy and climate policy under President-elect Donald Trump’s administration. Appointed as both Interior Department chief and head of the newly formed National Energy Council, Burgum will have extensive influence over federal energy policies and agencies. His focus on oil, gas production, carbon capture, and hydrogen energy aligns with advancing domestic energy goals, though environmentalists criticize his pro-fossil fuel stance and lack of conservation expertise. While not dismissing climate concerns outright, Burgum’s approach contrasts with Trump’s skepticism about climate change.

Trump also nominated Chris Wright as Energy Secretary. He currently is CEO of Colorado-based Liberty Energy Inc. and is known for his support of oil and natural gas fracking. He has championed fossil fuels as essential to global prosperity, while downplaying the severity of climate change. In his statement, Trump highlighted Wright’s contributions to the U.S. energy sector, noting his role in advancing the American shale revolution. Trump emphasized Wright’s experience in various energy fields, including nuclear, solar, geothermal, and oil and gas. Wright’s confirmation would place him on a new Council of National Energy, which will be led by Doug Burgum, Trump’s pick for Interior Secretary.

Your Next Reads:

Trump Taps Lee Zeldin to Lead EPA; What Does It Signal for Agriculture?

Washington Insiders Weigh in on What the Election Means for Agriculture

Could 100% Bonus Depreciation Make a Return Under a Trump 2.0 Administration?

Unscripted: Will New Policies Reshape the Ag Industry’s Future?

Mon, 18 Nov 2024 15:01:31 GMT

As new presidential and congressional administrations prepare to grab the governmental reins, ag professionals wonder what the new leadership will mean for the industry. Will we finally get a new farm bill? Who will be the next secretary of agriculture? Will we get clarification on nagging questions about biofuels? Will producers continue to face rising input costs and low commodity prices?

Washington D.C. ag economist John Newton sees opportunities for improving the industry’s financial outlook with new leadership in place. On the latest episode of the Unscripted podcast , Newton asks, “What needs to happen to turn this around?” and answers his question with “it all starts with demand.” Noting that corn exports have been strong, he says, “All eyes are going to be on this next administration for how we proceed with agricultural exports to our top markets.”

Increasing exports can give the ag economy a much-needed boost, and he’s optimistic about that possibility. “I’m focused heavily on the opportunities we have ahead of us in U.S. agriculture,” he says. “We’re the best in the world at what we do, we have the highest quality products, we just need an opportunity to deliver those products to the global market.”

He also has a positive outlook on the long-awaited farm bill, which currently remains in the hands of the lame-duck Senate ag committee.

“I’m optimistic we can get it done, but the clock is ticking,” he says. “There’s an opportunity to do something bipartisan for ag, for rural America.” From updated crop insurance to risk management tools to funding for rural childcare and health care to ag trade promotion programs, the bill could address many persistent issues that producers face. “The list,” says Newton, “is long.”

While he recognizes the major obstacles preventing a turnaround for the ag economy, he’s also optimistic about the candidates for the next secretary of agriculture. “There are a number of highly qualified people on the list,” he says. “It’s important to have somebody in that seat who works well with agriculture and is a good ambassador for us in the Oval Office.”

Watch the full episode of Unscripted.

Trump Trade Policy Seen As Wild Card for U.S. Soybean Farmers, Opportunity for Crushers

Wed, 13 Nov 2024 21:45:58 GMT

By Karl Plume and Renee Hickman

American farmers are worried that President-elect Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff plans will curb their access to top soy buyer China, but tariffs could also lure companies to build more U.S. crushing plants, hungry for domestic supplies.

Trump’s plans to roll out blanket import tariffs could slam the door on imported vegetable oil supplies, which renewable energy analysts said could in turn lure the U.S. crush industry to revive lagging plans to build new plants and expand capacity.

Such expansion has faltered over the past year, as the U.S. market was flooded with cheaper global supplies of diesel feedstocks like used cooking oil (UCO) from China, tallow from Brazil and canola oil from Canada.

Now, these supplies are likely targets for Trump’s tariffs while global supplies of other vegoils are tightening and prices climbing, analysts said. USDA data projects that global rapeseed oil supplies will shrink by 13% over the coming year with sunflower seed oil stocks down 24%. Indonesian palm oil shipments have dropped as that country plans to boost biodiesel production next year.

Potential new demand helped send Chicago Board of Trade soy oil futures jumping nearly 6% last week to the highest in seven months, traders said.

Analysts cautioned it remained too soon to know how, or if, the Trump Administration will change President Joe Biden’s law providing a decade of lucrative subsidies for clean-energy projects. Building domestic demand for such crops is key for eating through excess stocks, especially without access to the Chinese export market, agricultural economists said.

Hefty global competition could dent incomes for farmers who just harvested the second-largest U.S. soybean crop ever at a time when crop prices hover near four-year lows.

If tariffs prompt retaliation by global U.S. soybean importers, big soy processors such as Bunge Global and Archer-Daniels-Midland Co could benefit from a larger and likely cheaper supply of beans for them to crush in the U.S., industry analysts said.

“If Trump goes the tariff direction, it is friendly for the U.S. crushing industry and capacity,” said Kent Woods, owner of advisory firm CrushTraders. Woods added that U.S. soyoil demand would also rise if Trump blocks imported oils from benefiting from renewable fuel tax credits.

Farmers in rural Evansville, Wis., were still waiting for the state’s first commercial-scale soybean crushing plant, which had been slated to break ground last year.

For Nancy Kavazanjian and husband Charlie Hammer, the plant would mean an end to the nearly 400-mile round-trip to haul their soybeans to an Illinois buyer.

The savings would be huge, Kavazanjian said. “It’s manpower, it’s fuel and it’s time.”

Promise of Riches
Soaring vegoil demand from biofuels makers triggered a flood of projects to build new soy processing plants three years ago.

A mix of state and federal programs aimed at boosting lower carbon intensity fuels got a lift from Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) climate legislation in 2022. Since 2021, U.S. renewable diesel production capacity soared 200%.

Six new soybean processing facilities or plant expansions in Iowa, Nebraska and North Dakota opened in less than two years. At least four more projects in Nebraska, Ohio, Indiana and Louisiana are slated to launch through 2026.

Yet in about a half-dozen Midwestern towns, the lucrative promise of riches has stalled.

Crushers blame the delays on the flood of biofuel feedstock imports, soaring construction costs and the end of cheap financing as interest rates surged to a 23-year high.

U.S. farmers looking to boost domestic soyoil demand have unsuccessfully tried to get Biden’s Treasury Department to exclude imported biofuel feedstocks from IRA subsidies known as 45Z. It remains too soon to know if Trump will try to alter the IRA’s clean energy provisions or limit imports of used cooking oil, said Susan Stroud, founding analyst at No Bull Ag consulting.

Election Results
Some firms slammed the brakes on oilseeds plant expansions in order to wait and see how the election will impact biofuels policy. Permitting delays have stalled plant expansions by global oilseeds processor Bunge and joint venture partner Chevron in Destrehan, Louisiana, and Cairo, Illinois, along with slow approvals by the two companies, Bunge told Reuters.

Industry sources said Bunge scrapped plans to expand its massive plant in Council Bluffs, Iowa. Bunge declined to comment.

Work on United Cooperative’s smaller-scale plant in Waupun, Wisconsin, lagged after construction costs rose and interest rates soared, said Woods of advisory firm CrushTraders.

United Coop CEO David Cramer said it will be online within two years; the only delays were in getting equipment.

Soy processors also expect higher construction costs next year. Tariffs on imported steel and processing plant equipment could prove unpalatable for crushers that have yet to break ground.

Evansville Mayor Dianne Duggan said CHS had spoken about approving construction of the local facility as early as spring of 2023. The plant would be able to crush 70 million bushels of soybeans annually - or about two-thirds of Wisconsin’s total crop production, according to company and government data.

Today, it’s an empty field. CHS said the project is still under consideration.

(Reporting by Karl Plume in Chicago and Renee Hickman in Evansville, Wisconsin, additional reporting by P.J. Huffstutter in Chicago; Editing by David Gregorio)

Why John Thune's Election as Senate Majority Leader is Considered Beneficial for U.S. Agriculture

Wed, 13 Nov 2024 20:58:53 GMT

Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) wins Majority Leader race. Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) was eliminated on the first ballot. And Thune beat Sen. John Cornyn (R-Tex.) 29-24 on the second ballot.

The Thune selection is good for the U.S. ag sector. He has one of the best staff in Congress.

The leadership race unfolded in two rounds of voting: 

In the first ballot, Scott was eliminated. 
In the second and final ballot, Thune secured 29 votes, defeating Cornyn, who received 24 votes.

Donald Trump stayed out of the contest but did make public demands that the incoming majority leader allow him to make recess appointments to his Cabinet. All three men quickly agreed.

Thune’s election as Majority Leader is considered beneficial for the U.S. ag sector for several reasons: 

Agricultural background: Thune has a deep background in ag policy and is a member of the Senate Agriculture Committee. 
Farm bill experience: He has been involved in writing several farm bills, demonstrating his expertise in agricultural legislation. 
Conservation programs: Thune is an avid supporter of conservation title programs like the Conservation Stewardship Program and Conservation Reserve Program.
Bipartisan approach: He is a skilled negotiator, working for the benefit of all.
Constituency focus: Coming from South Dakota, an agriculture-based state, Thune is likely to keep agricultural interests at the forefront of his agenda.  • Experienced staff: Thune has one of the best staffs in Congress, which can be crucial for effective policymaking and implementation.

Of note: This leadership change marks the end of Mitch McConnell’s (R-Ky.) 18-year tenure as the Senate’s Republican leader. Thune will assume the role of Majority Leader for the next two years, coinciding with President-elect Donald Trump’s second term. While Thune has had differences with Trump in the past, he has recently worked to improve their relationship and has pledged to advance Trump’s legislative agenda.

Trump Taps Lee Zeldin to Lead EPA; What Does It Signal for Agriculture?

Tue, 12 Nov 2024 15:36:34 GMT

President-elect Donald Trump has selected former New York congressman Lee Zeldin to lead the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in his upcoming administration. This appointment signals a potential shift in environmental policy and regulatory approach. Here are the key points about this nomination:

• Zeldin is a former Republican congressman who represented New York’s 1st congressional district from 2015 to 2023.
• He lacks extensive experience in environmental policy, having not served on committees with direct oversight of environmental issues during his time in Congress.
• Zeldin has a lifetime score of only 14% from the League of Conservation Voters, indicating a record of frequently voting against environmental legislation.

Trump stated that Zeldin would “ensure fair and swift deregulatory decisions” to “unleash the power of American businesses.” The administration aims to maintain “the highest environmental standards, including the cleanest air and water on the planet” while pursuing deregulation.

Zeldin is expected to focus on restoring “U.S. energy dominance” and revitalizing the auto industry.

He may be tasked with rolling back several Biden administration environmental regulations, particularly those targeting power plant pollution and vehicle emissions. There are plans to end the pause on constructing new natural gas export terminals and potentially withdraw the U.S. from the Paris climate agreement.

Zeldin joined Trump and Sen.-elect Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania for a roundtable on agriculture during Trump’s campaign in September. Zeldin praised Trump for addressing the “threat” of foreign entities buying U.S. agricultural land and highlighted Trump’s trade policies, including the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which prioritized American farmers and strengthened supply chain resiliency.

Of note to the biofuels sector, In November 2015, Zeldin and several other members of Congress sent a letter to EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy expressing concerns about the proposed 2016 Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) program. The lawmakers worried that the proposed 2016 RVOs would require blending more ethanol than could be absorbed by the E10 gasoline market, effectively “breaking through” the blend wall. There were concerns that exceeding the blend wall could drive up the price of E10 gasoline for consumers. Ultimately, the EPA did finalize 2016 RVOs that were lower than originally proposed in the RFS statute, but still represented an increase over previous years. The agency attempted to balance the competing interests and technical constraints in the fuel market.

Meanwhile, discussions are underway about possibly relocating the EPA headquarters outside of Washington, D.C.

Environmental advocates criticized the nomination, viewing it as a potential regression in environmental policy. Zeldin’s record includes opposition to several climate-related bills and support for increased fossil fuel production.

Zeldin’s appointment as EPA Administrator will require Senate confirmation.

Could 100% Bonus Depreciation Make a Return Under a Trump 2.0 Administration?

Fri, 08 Nov 2024 20:58:10 GMT

President-elect Donald Trump is preparing for his second term as president. While it’s not two consecutive terms, his history during the first term could serve as a possible playbook on how the next four years could impact agriculture.

“You have to remember, Trump is a populist,” says Jim Wiesemeyer, Farm Journal Washington correspondent. “He learned a lot from his first four years. So, he’s better prepared now. He won’t choose a lot of cabinet people who will eventually write books negative about him. He learned that lesson.”

The parlor game of whom will be named to key cabinet positions, including the U.S. Secretary of Agriculture , will continue during the next few months. One of the biggest anticipated changes that could impact farms across the U.S. is the possible change to the tax policy.

“You can up the odds that you’re going to have many, if not most, of the expiring Trump 2017 tax cuts that expire at the end of 2025 renewed. That’s good for the U.S. sector because of the estate tax exemptions will probably remain as they currently are,” says Wiesemeyer.

While anticipated changes continued to be weighed by political analysts, one agricultural tax expert thinks farmers can count on one major thing.

“I think we’re definitely going to see no tax increases. That’s for sure,” says Paul Neiffer, Farm CPA and contributor to AgWeb.

Neiffer says even though Trump campaigned on no tax on tips and no taxes on social security, Neiffer doesn’t see those proposals passing, as it would leave too big of a hole in the federal budget deficit.

“But certainly, the lifetime exemption that next year will be almost $14 million, I think that’s going to be made permanent. And that’s great news for our farmers that possibly are facing some estate taxes,” Neiffer says.

Neiffer also thinks the Section 2032A deduction, which permits an alternative method for valuing certain real property used either as a farm for a farming purpose or in a trade or business other than farming, is something that could get bumped up to $14 million per taxpayer. He believes it would be a “good deal” for farmers.

The other benefit, according to Neiffer, is the extension of the Section 199A Deduction and additional changes he expects to occur with the corporate tax rate.

“The lower rates for 199A capital will likely to be extended,” Neiffer says. “We could even see a reduction in the corporate tax rate down to maybe 15% for farmers. And if that happens, you could see a lot of farmers switching from being an individual farmer to being a corporate farmer.”

According to Neiffer, 100% bonus depreciation could also make a comeback under Trump.

“We think, perhaps, 100% bonus depreciation might be coming back for farmers,” says Neiffer. “When they buy equipment or buildings, farm buildings, etc., they’ll be able to deduct 100% of that in the year of purchase.”

Neiffer points out farmers need to be careful and make sure they optimize their depreciation related to their debt, but the idea of 100% bonus depreciation would be a welcome change for farmers.

Wiesemeyer also says the relief for farmers is there will be no major changes to capital gains taxes, which is something the democratic nominee Kamala Harris had proposed during her campaign.

Your Next Read: Washington Insiders Weigh in on What the Election Means for Agriculture

Who Will Be the Next U.S. Secretary of Agriculture?

Thu, 07 Nov 2024 19:34:46 GMT

Donald Trump won all battleground states in a virtual red wall. Trump is the first candidate in over a century to reclaim the White House after losing it. Trump, who won election in 2016 as the 45th president, now will be the 47th and just the second candidate in U.S. history to win nonconsecutive White House terms.

Now that the results are in, it begs the question: Who will be the new USDA Secretary? That parlor game has returned with a host of possibilities which include:

Abel Maldonado, said to be at or near the top of possibilities, was former California Lt. Gov. from April 27, 2010, to Jan. 10, 2011. He is the oldest son of immigrant field workers and grew up working alongside his father picking strawberries to help support the family. He ran unsuccessfully for California’s 24th congressional district in 2012 and briefly ran for governor in the 2014 election. He was considered for USDA Secretary by Donald Trump in 2017, but was not ultimately nominated. He is currently the owner of Runway Vineyards in Santa Maria, California.
Zippy Duval, American Farm Bureau President, serving in that role since January 2016. He is a third-generation farmer from Georgia with deep roots in agriculture. He operates a dairy farm on land in Georgia, currently raising beef cattle and broiler chickens. He produces over 750,000 broilers per year with his wife, Jennifer. Prior to his role as AFBF President, Duvall served as the President of the Georgia Farm Bureau for nine years.
Kip Tom, Indiana farmer who transformed his family’s farm, Tom Farms, into one of the largest farming operations in Indiana. From April 2019 to January 2021, he served as the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Agencies for Food and Agriculture, based in Rome, Italy.
Former House Ag Chairman Mike Conaway, now a private consultant. He is the only person out there, not in office, who’s negotiated a farm bill; led an investigation resulting in debunking the Russia hoax; auditor who would turn USDA upside down investigating where all the debt relief and climate money has gone; knows rural America; aligned with Trump on needed SNAP reforms.
Texas Ag Commissioner Sid Miller, serving in this role since January 2015. Miller was born in 1955 in De Leon, Texas and has deep roots in the state’s agriculture industry. He is a cattle rancher, farmer, and owner of a commercial nursery business. He served six terms as a member of the Texas House of Representatives from 2001 to 2013. He was first elected as Texas Agriculture Commissioner in 2014 and re-elected in 2018 and 2022. He granted “amnesty to cupcakes” as his first official action, drawing attention to the repeal of a ban on junk food in schools. Recently issued an executive order allowing Texas farmers to use water from the Rio Grande for irrigation, addressing water shortage concerns. Miller has faced criticism. He awarded significant bonuses to staffers and created high-paying positions for political allies early in his tenure. Miller has recently been sounding the alarm about water shortages in Texas, particularly in the Rio Grande Valley.
Rep Thomas Massie (R-Ky.). He is a rebel House conservative that most consider a long shot choice.
Ray Starling: A prominent figure in American agriculture policy and law with extensive experience in both the public and private sectors. Currently serves as the general counsel of the N.C. Chamber and president of the N.C. Chamber Legal Institute. In these roles, he sets litigation strategy and leads public policy development, focusing on issues affecting businesses in North Carolina. Previously, Starling held several high-profile positions in the federal government: Chief of Staff to U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue; Principal agriculture advisor to the President of the United States at the White House; Special Assistant to the President for Agriculture, Trade and Food Assistance on the White House National Economic Council. He also worked as Chief of Staff and Chief Counsel for U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis. He grew up on a Century Family Farm in southeastern North Carolina.
Ted McKinney, CEO of the National Association of State Departments of Agriculture. Before that he was Undersecretary of Agriculture for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs (2017-2021); Director of the Indiana State Department of Agriculture (2014-2017): He served in this capacity before his appointment to the federal government. McKinney worked for 19 years with Dow AgroSciences and 14 years with Elanco, a subsidiary of Eli Lilly and Company, where he was Director of Global Corporate Affairs.
North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, who ran briefly for the Republican presidential nomination against Trump before campaigning for him. His term expires in December. Burgum is also being considered for other Cabinet positions. Of note: Every agriculture secretary since Mike Johanns in 2005 was a former governor.

— Potential candidates for U.S. Trade Representative in a second Trump administration include:

Robert Lighthizer is seen as a top contender to reprise his role as U.S. Trade Representative. However, reports signal Lighthizer wants to be either Commerce Secretary or Treasury Secretary. As Trump’s USTR during his first term, Lighthizer was a key figure in implementing Trump’s trade policies, including leading negotiations for the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) to replace NAFTA; Overseeing trade negotiations and disputes with China; Advocating for and implementing tariffs on various imports. Lighthizer remains close with Trump and is widely viewed as a leading candidate for USTR or another top economic post, especially given Trump’s promises to pursue even more aggressive trade policies in a second term.
Bill Hagerty. The Tennessee senator and former ambassador to Japan under Trump is considered a contender for multiple Cabinet posts, including USTR.
Jamieson Greer. Served as chief of staff to Lighthizer at USTR during Trump’s first term and is reportedly a top choice to lead the office.
Robert O’Brien. Trump’s former national security advisor is seen as a candidate for Secretary of State or other foreign policy roles, which could potentially include USTR.

Of note: Trump has expressed a desire to pursue even more aggressive trade policies, including broader tariffs, in a potential second term. This suggests he may favor someone like Lighthizer who has a track record of implementing such policies. However, the final selection will likely depend on various factors as Trump assembles his full economic and foreign policy teams.

— Who will be Donald Trump’s chief of staff? This is one of the most important personnel decisions Trump faces. There are several prominent contenders being considered for the position:

Brooke Rollins: A trusted Trump associate and CEO of the America First Policy Institute, Rollins is seen as a top contender for the Chief of Staff role. She previously served as an advisor on domestic policy during Trump’s first term and is perceived as a more moderate Trump ally.
Susie Wiles: Having led Trump’s successful 2024 campaign, Wiles is also being considered for the Chief of Staff position. Her pivotal role in Trump’s electoral success, particularly after joining his campaign following her work on Ron DeSantis’ campaign in Florida, has put her in a strong position for this role.
Kevin McCarthy: The former House Speaker, who had an unceremonious exit from Washington in October 2023, is widely seen as a top contender for the Chief of Staff position. McCarthy’s intimate knowledge of how Washington works is considered a significant asset for this role. Some people, however, say he likes the money he is making currently.
Robert Lighthizer: While primarily known for his role as a trade representative, Lighthizer is also mentioned as a potential candidate for Chief of Staff. However, he is also being considered for other positions such as Treasury Secretary or Commerce Secretary.

Bottom line: The final selection will likely depend on various factors, including their relationship with Trump, their ability to navigate Washington politics, and their alignment with Trump’s vision for his second term.

Your Next Read: Washington Insiders Weigh in on What the Election Means for Agriculture

Washington Insider Weighs In on What the Election Means for Agriculture

Thu, 07 Nov 2024 16:57:50 GMT

Donald Trump secured a second term in the White House after wins in key battleground states over Democratic challenger vice president Kamala Harris.

President-elect Trump garnered even stronger support in rural America this time around than in 2016.

Farm Journal Washington analyst Jim Wiesemeyer says the support from the heartland was likely backlash against the ag policy moves of the Biden-Harris Administration.

The election results are a bit of a double-edged sword for agriculture.

The good news is a Trump presidency and Republican-controlled Senate might result in fewer regulations and lower taxes, as well as at least partial support for biofuels policy.

The bad news is the U.S. could be headed for a possible trade war with China and other countries.

The future of trade is top of mind post election.

Washington insiders such as Mary Kay Thatcher say President Trump’s trade agenda won’t include renegotiation of a trade deal with China because they didn’t comply with Phase One.

Instead, he’ll immediately increase tariffs on China and other trading partners, which could mean a trade war and the demise of U.S. export markets.

Thatcher, who is senior manager of federal government and industry relations for Syngenta, says: “You have to believe that because President-elect Trump was so strong on doing tariffs before that it’s very likely he’ll follow through now. He’s talked about, at a minimum, 20% tariffs on everybody. He’s talked about 60% on China, who’s still our No. 1 ag export customer, likely to fall to two or three, but still a very important market. He’s also talked about Mexico if Mexico doesn’t stop as many people coming across the border.”

On taxes, it’s possible most of the expiring 2017 tax cuts will be renewed. Yet it might depend on if the House is controlled by Republicans or Democrats since she doesn’t believe Congress will want to increase the deficit.

“Just extending the things that will expire at the end of 2025, such as estate taxes, 199A taxes on co-ops and individual income tax rates — that’s $4 .6 trillion on top of an already really sad budget deficit.”

On energy policy, Thatcher sees at least partial support for biofuels because of rural America’s support for Trump in the election. That includes programs, such as 45Z, tied to climate and conservation and supported in Congress.

However, she says energy policy might be trimmed.

“I don’t look for him to go in and overturn the whole thing, especially if you think about some of those initiatives that have to do with agriculture. There are numerous farmers out there who have benefited from those programs and are going to speak up in support,” Thatcher explains.

There will be fewer regulations under this President and Congress. In fact, Thatcher expects a large share to go by the wayside even before Trump takes office and more to follow.

“Again, if there’s a Republican House, they’ll be using what they call the Congressional Review Act, which means they can look back at regulations written within the last 60 legislative days and they can try to overturn those,” she explains.

Another big election outcome for agriculture, is there are 50 to 60 new members of Congress that need to be educated about the importance of farming and ranching to the country.

Trump Return Likely to Slow, Not Stop, U.S. Clean-energy Boom

Thu, 07 Nov 2024 00:10:45 GMT

Donald Trump’s return to the White House will refocus the nation’s energy policy onto maximizing oil and gas production and away from fighting climate change, but the Republican win in Tuesday’s presidential election is unlikely to dramatically slow the U.S. renewable energy boom.

Investor fears of a reversal under Trump sent clean-energy stocks down sharply on Wednesday. The MAC Global Solar Energy index was down 10% in midday trade, while shares of top renewable project developer and owner NextEra Energy slid 6.2%.

A Biden-era law providing a decade of lucrative subsidies for new solar, wind and other clean-energy projects would be near-impossible to repeal, however, thanks to support from Republican states, while other levers available to the next president would only have marginal impact, analysts say.

“I don’t think a Trump president can slow the transition,” said Ed Hirs, energy fellow at the University of Houston. “This is well under way.”

Renewable energy sources such as solar and wind are the fastest-growing segments on the power grid, according to the Department of Energy, driven by federal tax credits, state renewable-energy mandates, and technology advancements that have lowered their costs.

President Joe Biden in 2022 signed into law the Inflation Reduction Act guaranteeing billions of dollars of solar and wind subsidies for another decade as part of his broader effort to decarbonize the power sector by 2035 to fight climate change.

Before the election, Trump slammed the IRA as being too expensive and promised to rescind all unspent funds allocated by the law - a threat that, if accomplished, could pour cold water over the U.S. clean energy boom. But dismantling the IRA would require lawmakers, including those whose states have benefited from IRA-related investments such as solar-panel factories, wind farms and other projects, to vote to repeal it.

“The jobs and the economic benefits have been so heavy in red states, it’s hard to see an administration come in that says, ‘we don’t like this,’” said Carl Fleming, a partner at law firm McDermott Will & Emery, who advised the Biden White House on renewable energy policy.

Many of Trump’s allies also benefit from the IRA through their investments in clean-energy technologies, Reuters has previously reported.

Fleming said Trump could, however, slow things down around the margins by hindering federal agencies that deliver IRA grants and loans, or by reducing federal leasing for things such as offshore wind.

“You could see a new administration come in and they can very quickly begin to cut budgets or restrict budgets or restrict the freedom of agencies to do certain things that are tied to funding,” he said. “But I think that’s a smaller subset of the larger renewables market that’s really relying on those, so I don’t think it would have a shocking effect.”

The Biden administration has rushed to ensure it spends the majority of available grant funding under the IRA before a new president arrives, Reuters has previously reported.

One way Trump could slow the transition is through executive action by changing public lands leasing, analysts said. The Biden administration had sought to expand lease auctions for offshore wind in federal waters, along with solar and wind on land.

“I think you would see more preference given to fossil-fuel extraction on public lands and waters,” said Tony Dutzik, associate director and senior policy analyst at Frontier Group, a non-profit sustainability think-tank.

That could have an outsized impact on the offshore-wind industry, which aims to site projects in federal waters. Most onshore solar and wind projects are located on private property, as is the vast majority of oil and gas drilling. Trump has said he intends to end the offshore-wind industry “on day one,” arguing it is too expensive and poses a threat to whales and seabirds, a dramatic policy reversal after his first administration supported offshore-wind development.

Bernstein Research said Trump is likely to enact a moratorium on new offshore-wind lease sales. Meanwhile, U.S. fossil-fuel production is likely to look much the same under Trump, experts said. The U.S. has already become the world’s largest oil and gas producer, under the watch of Biden, thanks to a drilling boom in fields such as the Permian Basin under Texas and New Mexico.

The production boom started under former President Barack Obama and has continued through the Trump and Biden presidencies. Even so, Trump’s campaign has sought to claim credit, saying his efforts to slash regulatory red tape during his 2017-2021 term paved the way, and arguing he could further expand U.S. fossil-fuel production in a second term by rolling back Biden’s climate initiatives.

“Presidents can make a lot of noise about plans for U.S. oil and gas, but ultimately it’s individuals and companies responding to prices of a global commodity that make the decisions on when to drill,” said Jesse Jones, head of North American upstream at Energy Aspects.

Dan Eberhart, Trump donor and CEO of oilfield-services company Canary, LLC, said he supports Trump’s encouragement of increased oil-and-gas drilling, saying it could further lower energy prices for businesses and consumers.

He added he would also welcome a move by Trump to once again withdraw the United States from international climate cooperation, like he did in his first term, arguing other big greenhouse-gas emitters were not doing enough.

“The Paris accord was aspirational and meaningless if China and India don’t participate,” he said, referring to a landmark U.N. deal in 2015 to limit global warming.

A Win for Private Property Rights, Voters Reject Carbon Pipeline Measure in South Dakota

Wed, 06 Nov 2024 20:24:19 GMT

A key state ballot issue in South Dakota is poised to go against carbon pipelines, according to Farm Journal Washington Correspondent Jim Wiesemeyer. The referendum let voters decide whether to uphold a pipeline bill that was passed by legislators.

90% of votes were in as of mid-morning Wednesday, and 60% voted no and 40% voted yes. A “no” vote means the state law in question would be rejected, and that raises fresh questions about the Summit Carbon Solutions pipeline and similar projects.

Proponents of the law argued it would create a revenue stream for counties with a a $1-per-foot surcharge of pipeline projects. They also argued it would serve as a compromise between landowners and pipeline companies.

However, landowners didn’t agree and fought against he bill saying the law would take power out of the hands of the counties and infringe on personal property rights.

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Carbon Pipeline Plans

The vote could have a direct impact on Summit Carbon Solutions pipeline. The company’s planned Midwest Carbon Express pipeline would be the largest in the country, spanning across 2,500 miles. It would cover several hundred miles in eastern South Dakota and is estimated to cost $8 billion.

The company said the goal is to remove carbon dioxide (CO2) from the exhaust stream of 57 ethanol plants in a five-state region in Iowa, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota and Nebraska, according to Jimmy Powell, chief operating officer for the Ames, Iowa-based company.

On June 25, the Iowa Utilities Board approved the permit for the pipeline. For construction on the pipeline to begin, permits must be secured in North Dakota and South Dakota.

Referred Law 21 was originally passed by legislators and signed by Gov. Kristi Noem (R). The law was meant to ease the path of carbon dioxide pipeline construction. But after garnering enough signatures, the law was put on the November ballot.

According to legal expert John Dillard, state governments have the primary authority to approve the siting and construction of CO2 pipelines as well as the eminent domain authority of the pipeline companies. These laws vary state-to-state, but they generally require pipeline companies to address safety and environmental concerns, provide notice to potentially impacted landowners, and minimize damage to landowner property. Some states preempt or restrict the authority of local governments to restrict pipelines while others allow zoning laws that would make construction difficult or impossible.

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Buoyed by Stronger Support from Rural America than 2016, Trump Wins Second Term as President

Denver Voters Reject Slaughterhouse Ban: Win for Animal Ag

Buoyed by Stronger Support from Rural America than 2016, Trump Wins Second Term as President

Wed, 06 Nov 2024 18:08:07 GMT

Donald Trump won all battleground states in a virtual red wall while the blue wall (Pa., Wis., Mich.) cratered for Democratic challenger Kamala Harris as she faced the greatest political comeback in U.S. history.

Trump also won battleground states of North Carolina and Georgia and was close in Nevada and Arizona, two states not yet officially called. It looks like Trump will eventually garner over 300 electoral votes. Trump is the first candidate in over a century to reclaim the White House after losing it. Trump, who won election in 2016 as the 45th president, now will be the 47th and just the second candidate in U.S. history to win nonconsecutive White House terms.

The Republican Party was on track to win the popular vote for the first time since 2004.

“America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate,” Trump told supporters as he declared victory.

Trump garnered even stronger support in rural America versus his still robust rural vote in this first administration. That is likely a backlash against the ag policy moves of the Biden/Harris administration that focused on underserved and minority rural citizens.

Trump also won strong support among working-class voters. The AP VoteCast survey, which included more than 120,000 registered voters nationally, showed he won 55% of voters without a college degree. That was up from 51% in 2020 in his race against Biden. Harris, meanwhile, struggled to pull together the diverse coalition that elected Biden in 2020, and she was weighed down by negative views of the economy under the Biden administration.

— It’s Trump’s GOP and his party has changed in a massive realignment. It now focuses on the working class, younger Americans, including young Black men, and Hispanics. It already focused on rural Americans; Trump gained even more rural votes in this election.

—“A new star is born,” Trump said in his acceptance speech: Elon Musk, who helped Trump and the GOP in campaign funding and messaging. It is unclear what role Musk will play in the next Trump administration, but the president-elect previously said he wants Musk to lead an effort to make the government more efficient. Of note: Musk vowed to keep his political action committee going beyond the presidential election, a sign the world’s richest person is building a political machine to support Trump.

— Republicans did much better than most expected in Senate races, with a likely pickup of four seats, to 53 (perhaps more), up from their 49 total in the current Congress. They include:

• West Va.: Open seat (Joe Manchin). Jim Justice (R) beat Glenn Elliott (D)

• Mont.: Incumbent Jon Tester (D) lost to Tim Sheehy (R)

• Ohio: Incumbent Sherrod Brown (D) lost to Bernie Moreno (R)

• Pa.: Incumbent Bob Casey Jr. (D) lost to Dave McCormick (R)

• Mich.: Open seat (Stabenow). Elissa Slotkin (D) is clinging to a 4,600 vote lead over former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers.

• Wis.: Incumbent Tammy Baldwin (D) is slightly ahead of Eric Hovde (R)… after late results from Milwaukee and Racine put her in the lead.

• Nev.: Incumbent Jacky Rosen (D) leads Republican Sam Brown in both Washoe and in Clark County, where the outstanding vote likely benefits her. With many absentee ballots, this race may not be called for a while, much like the 2022 Senate contest.

• Ariz.: Open (Kirsten Sinema). Ruben Gallego (D) beat Kari Lake (R)

• Neb.: Incumbent Deb Fischer (R) squeaked by Dan Osborn (Independent)

• Texas: Incumbent Ted Cruz (R) beat Colin Allred (D)

• Current GOP Sens. Deb Fischer (Neb.) and Ted Cruz (Texas) both won their races that Democrats thought they had a chance of winning.

— What the GOP Senate tally means: This will mute to some degree GOP Senate moderates in the new Congress, including Sens. Susan Collins (Maine), Lisa Murkowski (Alaska), newly elected John Curtis (Utah) and Bill Cassidy (La.). The Senate GOP count gives Republicans powerful leverage in tax and spending battles.

— Several House races are still too close to call, but it appears Republicans will hold on to its narrow majority in the chamber. But Democrats were leading in some close races and several California races could still tip the House chamber to the Democrats. If the GOP keeps control of the chamber, that means another contentious House Speaker vote perhaps changes in its rules.

— Election winners include:
• Trump and his campaign strategy. Also, Trump’s victory coattails helped Republicans win a few Senate contests previously mentioned and helped keep the House in GOP control.
• GOP issues, including the border, tax/economic/inflation policy, energy, reduced regulations and a push for a reciprocity trade policy.
• Sen. Steve Daines from Montana played a significant role in the 2024 Senate races as the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC). In this position, he was responsible for leading the Republican efforts to flip control of the Senate from Democratic to Republican majority.

— Losers include:
• Kamala Harris who mostly refused to answer questions and make clear the policies she wanted. Her strategy of focusing on abortion and women voters was not enough to beat Trump.
• Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), who led the maneuvers to get President Joe Biden to relinquish his re-election run for president and pushed Harris to pick Tim Walz of Minnesota as her vice president when election experts thought she should have picked Pa. Gov. Josh Shapiro.
• Harris’ campaign strategy that at the end relied on elite musical entertainers, a failed strategy that Hillary Clinton also tried. Nearly $16 billion were spent this election season, with Democrats spending a lot more than Republicans. The GOP saw the benefit of podcasts, which were a free way of getting their message across to voters.
• Pollsters who underestimated Trump voters for the third consecutive presidential election. Another loser: Iowa pollster Ann Selzer, who on Saturday predicted Harris over Trump in Iowa by 3 points; Trump won the state by double digits. Her poll turned out to be an outlier.
• President Biden’s family who helped push him to run for re-election only to wait until it was very late to see him pushed aside and forced to drop out.
• Most of the mainstream (legacy) media who clearly favored Harris and did several things that showed their bias.

— Now what?
• Trump should have learned from mistakes during his first term and will not likely make poor choices of some Cabinet and other personnel who ended up writing negative books about him.
• Trump’s Cabinet: The new GOP Senate next year will be able to provide the votes for Trump to get the Cabinet he wants. Unclear is what role RFK Jr. will play in Trump 2.0. He would not likely be confirmed by the Senate for any Cabinet position.
• High odds that a Trump favorite, Doug Burgum of North Dakota, will come into Trump 2.0 administration, perhaps as Energy Secretary, Burgum will bring ag-related interests relative to the RFS and tax incentive programs like 45Z/Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF). On global climate policy, Carbon Brief said Trump’s return to the White House would likely result in the U.S. missing its climate pledges “by a wide margin,” though it noted that some Biden administration policies such as a mammoth clean-tech spending program may “prove hard to unpick.”
• The lame-duck session of Congress may be encouraged to complete lingering business, including fiscal year (FY) 2025 funding, disaster aid, and perhaps a new farm bill and an ag economic aid measure.
• Foreign policy: Trump will take a more aggressive role in foreign policy rather than the near pacificist approach taken by Biden/Harris.
• Supreme Court: In the next few years, one to several existing SCOTUS members could likely depart.
• Republicans are now in position to reshape the federal judiciary.

— Budget reconciliation: With Republicans capturing the White House and Senate, and perhaps keeping control of the House, that means several budget reconciliation measures until 2026 elections could alter that situation. That means higher odds that Trump will get a lot of what he wants relative to 2017 Tax Act policies which mostly expire at the end of 2025.

— During the first days of his second term, Trump will issue executive orders dealing with border issues and energy-related matters, topics which Biden altered in recent years. Trump will also put into play that for every new regulation, up to ten regulations must be swept away.

— The ag sector will focus on Trump 2.0’s trade policy. Trump has said “tariffs” is his favorite word in the dictionary and has consistently said he would use them against China. He has also said he would put 10% to 20% tariffs on imports from other countries, but that is seen as leverage in discussions with countries for a key goal of his new term: reciprocal trade agreements. Key will be if former U.S. Trade Rep Robert Lighthizer comes into the new Trump administration as most expect and if so, under what role. It may be as Commerce or Treasury Secretary. Trump recently said he would slap on tariffs against Mexico if their new president doesn’t comply with holding illegal immigrants into her country.

— International reactions to Donald Trump’s return to political prominence:
• Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu referred to the outcome as “history’s greatest comeback,” signaling strong approval and a continued bond between the two leaders.
• Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi referred to Trump as a “friend,” reflecting close ties and potentially anticipating cooperative efforts.
• Cautious optimism from Western leaders: France, Britain, and Italy’s leaders expressed a diplomatic hope for future collaboration, signaling their willingness to maintain stable relations with Trump while hedging their tone.
• Far-right leaders in Europe cheered, indicating ideological alignment or a belief that Trump’s policies resonate with their political goals.
• Measured Response from Ukraine: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy gave restrained praise by highlighting appreciation for a “peace through strength” approach. This suggests caution from Zelensky, likely stemming from Trump’s past relationship with Russia and potential implications for Ukraine’s security situation.

— Market reactions:
• Bitcoin is bullish on the news as Trump and Musk are supporters. Bitcoin jumped to a record high above $75,000.
• U.S. equities will likely show a continuation of higher levels as Trump’s wins will mean better tax/investment opportunities than if Harris had won.
• Banks, brokers: Robust stock markets and an end to the Biden administration antitrust crackdown should mean more profits for banks and brokers… and less regulation. Bank of America, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, Charles Schwab and Goldman Sachs are all up 6% or more in premarket trading.
• Treasury yields jumped, and the dollar surged on the election results (While Trump has advocated for a weaker dollar, many investors say his policies will achieve the opposite). Treasury yields are soaring on the view that Trump’s agenda — more spending, low taxes, tariffs, restricted immigration — will fuel inflation. The 10-year US Treasury note edged towards 4.5%, a level not seen in about six months, before pulling back a bit. Bitcoin spiked to a record and the Mexican peso lost as much as 3.5%.
• Oil, gold: A stronger greenback makes dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for international buyers, so crude and precious metals are falling.
• The yuan weakened the most in two years and Chinese stocks fell on the specter of Washington slapping tariffs of up to 60% on Chinese goods. The move could further weaken the world’s second-largest economy and disrupt global supply chains.
• Ag markets will be cautious over Trump’s aggressive trade policies. Soybeans dropped given concerns about trade tensions with China, the biggest buyer.
• Federal Reserve policymakers will watch to see if Trump’s policies via across-the-board tariffs and aggressive tax cuts are inflationary.

— A key state ballot issue in South Dakota is poised to have gone against carbon pipelines. This referendum let voters decide whether to uphold a pipeline bill that was passed by legislators. With 82% of votes in, 60% have voted no and 40% voted yes. A no vote would mean the state law in question would be rejected and that raises fresh questions about the Summit Carbon Solutions pipeline and similar projects.

Which Presidential Candidate Would Have the Biggest Impact on Ag?

Fri, 01 Nov 2024 22:40:06 GMT

With early voting well underway in the presidential election, agriculture producers must decide which candidate will better serve their needs and what they want the next president to do. On the latest episode of Farm Journal’s Unscripted podcast , long-time Washington insider Jim Wiesemeyer shares what he’s hearing about who that next president could be. He tells hosts Tyne Morgan and Clinton Griffiths that early voting among Republicans could make a big impact.

With polls showing razor-thin margins between the candidates, it’s still too close to call, particularly in the swing states, Wiesemeyer says. At a recent event in Colorado Springs, CO, he heard David Wasserman from the Cook Political Report give Donald Trump a 60 percent chance of winning. “Republicans historically vote far more than Democrats on election day,” he says. “This year, more Republicans have voted early. They could gain some key votes in key states simply by voting earlier.”

On the podcast, Clinton offers, “It feels like there’s so much pressure at the polls to get it right. Everybody’s kind of on edge, which I’m okay with. I want it to be right.” When the counting is done, however, which candidate will be better for agriculture? Tyne reveals that surveys in this month’s Ag Economist’s Monthly Monitor and a Farm Journal survey of more than 4,000 ag producers tell different stories.

Key issues for the industry include the 45Z program for biofuels, farm policy, tariffs, crop insurance and inflation. Jim says, “When I talk to top producers, one thing is clear on differentiating the candidates — tax policy. Farmers like that 20 percent pass-through. They like less estate taxes, less capital gains taxes. When you talk to farm country, production agriculture, those are the things I’m told.”

They agree that the delay in clarification on the 45Z biofuels tax credit is, as Tyne says, “a complete disaster.” Is it going to happen next year? Soybean processing plants are slowing purchases because they’re not sure about receiving the credit. “As for why it’s taking so long, it’s up to the treasury department and the IRS, because it’s tax incentives,” Jim explains. “They just don’t know agriculture. Companies are starting to pull back their investment plans because they don’t know the rules. We have to know if corn-based ethanol is going to comply.”

It’s a spirited, illuminating discussion on a range of issues that farmers, ranchers and other ag professionals need to consider seriously as they cast their votes.

Watch the full episode of Unscripted.

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A Possible Recession Still Hangs Over the Ag Economy, But Positive Shifts Are Starting to Surface
As the Wizard of Yield, Ken Ferrie Reveals His Secrets on Unscripted

A Possible Recession Still Hangs Over the Ag Economy, But Positive Shifts Are Starting to Surface

Fri, 01 Nov 2024 21:12:11 GMT

In September, 75 percent of ag economists warned of an impending agricultural recession. October brought slight optimism to the Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor, attributed to rising U.S. corn export demand and forecasts about cattle herd rebuilding. Yet, economists remain cautious about the potential impact of the upcoming election.

Harvest is winding down across the Midwest, and some farmers saw a record harvest pace in 2024. Harvest is typically the time of year the market sets harvest lows, but this year, commodities, like corn and wheat, came to life.

“I think over the last month, we’ve seen a little bit of a rebound or stabilization of prices, if you will. Some of that’s simply been fund short covering that is supported, some of it is a little better long-term picture for wheat and for corn, although for soybeans, it’s still looking somewhat bleak long-term,” said Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist with StoneX Group.

The latest Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor, which is a survey of nearly 70 ag economists and conducted by Farm Jounal each month, reflected that with short-term sentiments among economists seeing a slight improvement, but a bigger jump when asked to compare them to last year.

“We could have told you two to three years ago that, after a period of high prices, eventually we were going to have a recovery in production and that was going to suppress prices probably more than input costs. We knew that. I think when you take into account expectations heading into the year, has it deteriorated more than expectations? Probably not. We just know that we’re worse off today than where we were,” said Ben Brown, an agricultural economist with the University of Missouri.

Each month, the Monthly Monitor asks economists to list the factors that could impact crop prices over the next six months. In the latest survey, economists said:

South American weather
U.S.-China trade relations
Election outcomes
Global geopolitical risks
Biofuel demand

The Biggest Wildcard: South America

“The biggest thing that will l impact the markets is going to be South American weather. What happens in Brazil and Argentina and what’s the size of the soybean crop they’re going to get? Right now, it is raining. The crop is being planted late. Our people on the ground in Brazil are expecting a big crop if these rains continue,” Suderman said.

While the soybean crop could see suppressed prices if Brazil grows a big crop this year, the later-planted crop could eat into the supplies of corn.

“Even where we’re at today could have an impact on that second-crop corn, given that I anticipate that we’re going to see a very robust corn export picture even without a shrinkage in that second-crop Brazilian corn. I still think there’s an upside potential for the corn market, and it’s going to be based on the size of that second-crop corn in Brazil,” said Brown.

A Recent Surge in Corn Sales

The corn export demand picture has been strong, which is thanks to a surge in sales to Mexico. T hat’s one significant factor currently fueling corn prices .

“If we didn’t have it, corn prices would be a lot lower today than where they are,” said Brown.

“When we look at the export pace that we’re on right now, it’s stronger than what we normally have at this time of year, and it’s largely been because of Mexico. Mexico has been a very aggressive buyer of U.S. corn here, at what they perceive to be the harvest lows,” Suderman said.

Outlook for Livestock and Dairy

The October Monthly Monitor asked economists to list the factors that could impact livestock and dairy prices over the next six months. Economists said:

Herd size and tight cattle supplies
Outcome of the election
Health of general economy in the U.S. and consumer demand changes
Disease issues (H5N1, etc.)
Developments in China and other major importers
Consumer demand given high meat and dairy prices
Weather in the Corn Belt and Great Plains

When Will Beef Producers Start to Rebuild Their Herds?

October Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lindsey Pound)

The October survey also asked economists when they think producers will start to rebuild their cow herds:

50 percent said in the first half of 2026
30 percent think it’ll happen the second half of 2025
20 percent said in the first half of next year.

“We’ve seen a slowdown of cow slaughter. That’s step one, but that’s not rebuilding,” said Suderman. “It really comes down to when do we turn this weather pattern around and start getting the pasture, the feed necessary in the West in order to incentivize rebuilding the cowherd? That is the problem right now.”

Other than weather, what else is preventing producers from starting to rebuild? Economists say it’s the average age of producers, replacement costs and heifer prices.

“I also think there is this economic pull on producers of ‘how can I justify retaining these heifers when they’re bringing the prices that they are?’” said Brown.

The Inflation Factor

When you look at what could impact both livestock and row crop producers over the next six months, a major wild card is interest rates. The October survey asked economists how much farm interest rates need to fall to find economic stability for farmers, and 46% said 2%.

Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lindsey Pound )

But even with the Fed cutting the benchmark interest rate last month, interest rates have actually gone up, not down.

“The two-year break-even inflation rate is what the market trades. It’s expectations of what inflation’s going to average over the next two years. And over the last six weeks or so, we have seen it jump a full percentage point. That is a significant short-term jump, saying that reinflation fears are coming back in a hurry,” Suderman said.

Suderman points out the Fed can influence mid- and longer-term rates, but the agency can’t control them. And it’s concerns about inflation that are pushing those rates back up again.

“That could all change over the next couple of weeks, or it could be reinvigorated. I think longer term, what I’m looking for is a return to the interest rates that we saw in the ‘90s and early 2000. But I think there’s going to be a lot of volatility in getting there,” Suderman said.

Election Impact on Ag

October Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lindsey Pound)

Ahead of the election, the Monthly Monitor asked economists which presidential candidate will be more effective at taming inflation. Fifty-three percent said Donald Trump.

When it comes to providing more certainty on farm policy and crop insurance, 61 percent of economists said Trump will provide more certainty.

However, when looking at policies that benefit biofuels, 53 percent of economists said Kamala Harris.

Today, there is no clarity on 45Z that’s causing soybean processors like Cargill and Bunge to possibly slow or even idle production by the end of the year.

“We have industry looking to shut down production of biofuel. If we don’t get the 45Z requirements here released soon, and that doesn’t look likely, unfortunately, that’s going to hurt demand for soybean crushing for soybeans per se,” Suderman said.

“The fact that we don’t have those today, I think, is impeding investment in the sector. And people are asking for that before they spend millions of dollars to do that. And I think that has been a hiccup,” said Brown.

Role of the Federal Government

Heading into a crucial election with not just the presidential race, but also the House and Senate, the October Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor asked, “What is the most important role of the federal government?”

Forty-six percent of economists ranked financial aid as the top priority. Nearly 43 percent said it’s passing a farm bill.

October Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lindsey Pound)

“There’s all this discussion that the safety net is inadequate relative to commodity programs, and there’s the potential for some rather large ARC and PLC payments to come,” said Brown. “But are they too late? That’s the question. Is it too late in the cycle? Does any type of ad hoc support through a farm financial package bridge that gap?”

The October survey of economists also asked them to weigh in on the fate of the farm bill. The majority of economists think Congress will pass a new farm bill in 2025, but 21 percent think it could be 2026 before it crosses the finish line.

Farm Bill Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lindsey Pound )

Conclusion

The October Monthly Monitor reflects cautious optimism in certain areas of agriculture, marked by export strengths and potential price recoveries. But the optimism is shadowed by long-term rebuilding challenges, weather dependencies and the impact of the upcoming election.

A New Era: The Ag Equipment Industry's Sugar High Is Over

Thu, 31 Oct 2024 18:36:04 GMT

One of my first story assignments as an agricultural journalist was covering a liquidation auction of repossessed farm machinery in Columbia, Missouri.

It was late summer 1985, and the 1980s farm crisis was at its zenith. I can still envision the endless row of used corn heads across the length of the fairgrounds. In total, 174 pieces of agricultural equipment hit the auction block that day.

This was certainly not the “feel-good” story I had envisioned to start my journalistic journey in the field of agriculture, but I learned about our industry’s fragility.

Fast forward to today, and I’m reading a story by Bloomberg news that proclaimed used equipment, not new technology, was this year’s star of the Farm Progress Show. The article highlighted that BigIron Auctions, a provider of used farm machinery and one of the show’s exhibitors, had its biggest-ever offering. Although this may be good news for the auction company, it is likely a prophecy of bad news to come for the rest of the industry.

You may ask, how bad? When agricultural equipment manufacturers start shedding union line workers, shuttering plants and shifting factories to Mexico, and there’s a glut of used equipment covering dealer lots, you know the tide is quickly turning.

What Goes Up Comes Down
Many of us have observed farm economic cycles. This time, despite the sharp rise in input costs, commodity prices more than kept pace, and ultimately, net farm income tallied $182 billion in 2022. Those good times are in the rearview mirror, though. For 2024, projected net farm income drops to $140 billion.

Not surprisingly, farmers bought fresh paint during the boom period. U.S. farm equipment manufacturers and machinery dealers recorded some of their best sales in more than a decade in 2021, and strong sales continued through most of 2023. Although sales of new small- and medium-sized tractors peaked in 2021, sales of bigger horsepower tractors and combines held their own—until early this year.

The Party’s Over
This most recent sugar high for the ag equipment industry was foiled by high inflation, high interest rates and falling crop prices. New machinery prices ramped up 30% on average in the past four years. In 2020, the average price of a new tractor was $363,000. In 2023, it skyrocketed to $491,800.

Since March 2022, the Federal Reserve has raised the interest rate 11 times to curb inflation. So not only does that fresh paint cost at least 30% more, but also the money borrowed to purchase capital items is 161% higher. Now with commodity prices falling faster than either interest rates or equipment prices, this boom time hayride is over.

The Fallout
The Association of Equipment Manufacturers says June 2024 sales of new two-wheel drive tractors were down 16.3% versus 2023. Combine sales were down 31%.

Farm Journal’s machinery analyst Greg Peterson, who leads the popular online platform Machinery Pete, says BigIron Auctions’ expanded presence at Farm Progress is a sign dealers are trying to get ahead of the train. He notes the night-and-day difference in the OEM-dealer response to this downturn compared to the previous one in 2014 to 2015. This time around, dealers have been aggressively paring down large late-model used inventory. In the first eight months of 2024, the market saw a 450% increase in the raw number of one- to two-year-old equipment units taken to auction compared with ’14 and ’15.

Peterson projects used equipment values will continue to deteriorate in the short term. However, the change in those values may not rival the percentage drops seen in the previous down market. Why? Online bidding.

It is a market force that was in its infancy a decade ago. Machinery auctions used to be a local affair. Now, they are regionalized, perhaps nationalized. Even 65-year-old-plus farmers are bidding on tractors being sold eight states away.

Despite the unprecedented number of large late-model used equipment transactions, Peterson points to a potential silver lining in seeing such a quick spike. The sooner the glut of inventory turns, the sooner the equipment industry will return to brighter times. How quickly this happens is going to depend on a lot of things, so it may be prudent to nudge the market in the right direction.

Craving Certainty
With the politics of this election behind us, there’s a lot that could be done to give the marketplace more certainty. I made a “to-do list” for our newly elected officials to follow to address this issue.

Pass a new farm bill. This is the roadmap for everything from conservation programs to public food policy. Get it done!
Make the expanded Section 179 and bonus depreciation incentives permanent. Incentives from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 are winding down or expiring. U.S. ag manufacturers don’t need less incentive for customers to buy.
Pause new EPA and climate change regulations. Saddling manufacturers with more regulations in a crisis is simply not smart.
Do not raise corporate or personal tax rates. Raising taxes domestically only gives U.S. manufacturers another reason to relocate more factories and jobs out of this country. Maybe it’s time Washington, D.C., starts viewing U.S. agricultural manufacturing to be as important as producing semiconductor chips domestically. If semiconductor chip production is that critical to our national security, then I would argue food security ranks right up there.

According to market analysts, we will be at the bottom of this rollercoaster ride for the next year or so. The good news is that long-term, all signs point to a very healthy recovery of agricultural manufacturing by the end of the decade. As robotics, AI and information systems become increasingly integrated, the U.S. ag machinery sector is poised to grow from $39.56 billion this year to $53.7 billion in 2029.

Of course, hitting such numbers depends on how rough the road is financially between now and then. All I know is we do not need history repeating itself. The last thing I want is to have one of the last stories of my journalistic career mimic the heartbreaking one I started with nearly 40 years ago.

Government Price Controls Didn't Work The First Time, And They Won't Now Either

Fri, 20 Sep 2024 19:38:11 GMT

Do you ever get the feeling that you may be living in a time warp? I mean, doesn’t it seem just a little weird that bell-bottom pants and Marcia Brady hairstyles are the latest rage? I don’t know about you, but one trip through the 1970s was good enough for me.

Unfortunately, bad fashion sense and bad hairdos are not the only bad idea that has been resurrected from this tumultuous decade. Recently, the idea of reviving government price controls on food and other consumer staples has been injected into the public forum.

Why Now?
It’s an election year, and a presidential election year at that. We all know politicians will say almost anything if it will mean just one more vote come election day.

On Friday, August 16, Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris floated a public policy that hasn’t been tried since the Nixon administration. To address rising food prices, Harris proposed a federal ban on price gouging, focusing on “excessive” and “unfair” mergers and acquisitions that give big food companies the power to “jack up” food and grocery prices.

There is a reason that such a heavy-hand tampering by the government in the supply and demand workings of the marketplace was banished from the political landscape as we know it. Former president Richard Nixon tried it, and it failed miserably! It would have been prudent for Vice President Harris to have brushed up on her history before rolling out this bad batch of political candy to lure the last group of undecided voters.

The twist of historical irony is that Nixon rolled out his first series of economic control measures, including wage and price freezes, almost 53 years to the day that Harris publicly floated her ideas. On August 15, 1971, in a nationally televised address, Nixon announced, “I am today ordering a freeze on all prices and wages throughout the United States.”

After a 90-day freeze, increases would have to be approved by a pay board and a price commission, with an eye toward eventually lifting controls — conveniently, after the 1972 election. Unfortunately the American people would pay the price — but not until after Nixon coasted to a landslide re-election in 1972 over Democratic Senator George McGovern.

Not Then, Not Now
By the time Nixon reimposed a temporary freeze in June 1973, Daniel Yergin and Joseph Stanislaw explain in “The Commanding Heights: Battle for the World Economy,” it was obvious price controls didn’t work: “Ranchers stopped shipping their cattle to market, farmers drowned their chickens, and consumers emptied the shelves of supermarkets.”

When price controls were implemented in 1971, inflation stood at 5.8%. By the summer of 1975 it had ballooned to 8.7%. For the rest of the decade, inflation totally derailed the U.S. economy. The real pain came with what it took to ultimately slow that train. The Federal Reserve took the Fed Funds rate from a low of 3.75% in 1971 to an astronomical 19.29% in 1981.

For U.S. agriculture, these were the worst of times. As interest rates rose and land and commodity prices bottomed, U.S. agriculture endured one of the darkest periods in modern history. The final governmental gut punch came in 1979 with President Jimmy Carter imposing a grain embargo on the Soviet Union, resulting in a 20% decline in agricultural exports.

Farmers saw the rally cry to “plant fencerow to fencerow” and “feed the world” turn into prayers so that they could feed their family. Bankruptcies and suicides became all too common as the fabric of rural America ripped apart. Government had failed them, and their best hope was that Willie Nelson would show up to do another Farm Aid concert in their back 40.

With farm income expected to record its largest year-to-year dollar drop in history, now is not the time to roll out love me ’til election day economic proposals. Still reeling from supply chain chaos caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agriculture is in a weakened state.

The Real Drivers
It is important that all links of the U.S. food supply chain remain strong. With average profits of less than 3% for farms and only 1.6% for grocery stores, one has to wonder who the government is going to have to squeeze if price controls were implemented. Vice President Harris specifically pointed her finger at large corporate food processing companies and suppliers.

Although the Harris proposal was light on specifics, it marshals the Federal Trade Commission and state attorney generals with new authority to “impose strict new penalties” on companies that price gouge. She also said her administration would address “unfair mergers and acquisitions” that contribute to higher priced food and groceries.

One would hope if these government agencies were currently doing their day job, then the above mentioned issues should not be a problem in the first place. We don’t need a governmental “grocery czar” telling us what a box of Cheerios should or shouldn’t cost.

Our government needs to look in the mirror to see the key factors that have really driven up grocery prices. Energy costs and interest rates are two of the biggest. Both have a huge impact on food production costs and the price paid at the grocery store. Over the past four years, the consumer price index for energy has risen 32%. In that same time, the prime interest rate has gone from 3.25% to 8.50%.

Even Captain Obvious could connect the economic dots from the current administration’s policies and legislative actions to the reality that is happening to consumers at the checkout line. On day one in office, President Biden canceled the Keystone XL pipeline, and he and Harris have continued for the past three-and-a-half years to throttle the traditional fossil fuel industry at every turn. Meanwhile, the Congressional Budget Office projects that under Biden’s four-year term $7.902 trillion will have been added to our overall national debt. Such actions and polices have been a lead foot on the gas pedal that is driving inflation.

It’s That Bad
So, before we grant our government Wizard of Oz powers over the nation’s food supply chain, it might behoove Vice President Harris and her economic advisers to address the root cause of inflation. Instead of trying to fix it artificially through failed policies of the past and election year pandering, they should address the real issues behind high food prices and inflation as a whole. When friendly press allies such as the New York Times, Washington Post and CNN all shot the Harris plan down from the moment it left her lips — you know it’s bad. The Washington Post called it a “populist gimmick”, and personal finance guru Dave Ramsey said, “It’s not sustainable because it’s artificial.”

Let us hope and pray that such policies will forever remain as a footnote in our history books and not become part of our future economic reality. Whenever I hear something like this I’m always reminded of what Ronald Reagan considered the nine most terrifying words of the English language, “I’m from the government, and I’m here to help!”

Where Do Harris and Trump Stand On Ag Policy Issues?

Fri, 13 Sep 2024 21:57:55 GMT

The American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) released the unedited responses from Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump to its questionnaire on federal agricultural policy. This initiative allows Farm Bureau members to directly compare each candidate’s platform.

AFBF has been collecting and sharing responses from presidential candidates across parties for over 40 years to provide transparency on key agricultural issues.

Overview
Trump supports increasing commodity price supports, improving crop insurance, and focusing on innovation to keep ahead of China. He also pledged to lower energy bills and end Biden’s net-zero emissions policies.

Harris highlights the Biden administration’s initiatives to protect small farmers from unfair competition, citing Trump’s previous proposals for deep cuts to critical farming programs.

Farm policy and programs

Trump emphasized strengthening crop insurance and risk management programs, as well as supporting beginning farmers and ranchers. He highlighted his previous administration’s efforts, including signing a “massive Farm Bill” that improved agriculture programs and increased borrowing limits for farmers.
Harris focused on defending programs that allow farmers and ranchers to prosper, criticizing Trump’s proposed cuts to essential farming programs. She emphasized the importance of crop insurance and risk management tools.

Regulatory issues

Trump pledged to slash regulations that he believes stifle American agriculture and increase costs. He cited his previous administration’s efforts to cut regulations, claiming it saved farmers and taxpayers hundreds of millions of dollars annually.
Harris committed to reducing excessive red tape while maintaining necessary protections.

On labor, both were vague.

Trump said he supports merit-based immigration.
Harris advocates for immigration reform to benefit the economy and farmers.

Environmental issues

Trump emphasized increasing ethanol production and reducing EPA regulations. Trump promised to end Biden’s net-zero emissions policies.
Harris underscored the importance of clean water and conservation efforts.

Trade policy

Trump promised to fight barriers to agricultural exports and highlighted his previous administration’s trade deals, including the Phase 1 agreement with China.
Harris vowed to stand firm against unfair trade practices, especially from China. She criticized Trump’s previous trade war, citing the costs to farmers and taxpayers.

Endangered Species Act

Trump suggested focusing on incentive-based programs for species recovery, criticizing the current law’s effectiveness.
Harris emphasized the need for cooperative initiatives that consider all Americans, including farmers and ranch owners, in conservation efforts.

Ag Experts: The Election is Big, New Farm Bill is Bigger

Thu, 12 Sep 2024 15:30:08 GMT

The start of a new school year and the warm glow of Friday Night Lights signals the end of summer and the start of fall.

Those same indicators also portend – every four years, anyways – the impending presidential election season . And while presidential politics are certainly influential within the agriculture industry at large, our nation’s farmers currently have a much more pressing need in today’s faltering farm economy: passage of a new Farm Bill.

There hasn’t been a five-year Farm Bill since 2018, and that legislative extension is about to be sidelined by its own expiration.

When can farmers expect a new Farm Bill?
Back in June, Farm Journal asked its Ag Economists Monthly Monitor panel when they expected passage of a new Farm Bill. A combined 68% of the 70 experts surveyed indicated it could be passed in 2025, while just 19% said it could happen before the end of the year. Perhaps the worst-case scenario – nothing on the books until 2026 – is the prediction of 13% of those surveyed.

Farm leaders are beginning to grow impatient, pacing their respective sidelines like the hot seated, anxious head coach trying to rally the troops for that one last, potentially magical two-minute drill that would get this Farm Bill into the end zone. That would signify a big win for farmers, as well as the companies that help them get a quality crop into and out of the ground each year.

As of today, however, it feels like more of a Hail Mary than a one-yard Tush Push to get it over the goal line.

Making the Case
“We need a proper Farm Bill,” states Kurt Coffey, Case IH, vice president – North America. “We need to work beyond an extension and get a farm bill.

“Whether that happens later in the year, during the lame duck period – depending on who’s elected, or next year – the extension for funding that safety net goes through the end of 2024.” he adds. “So, whether we get an extension, the safety net side of crop insurance and the other things that come with it, we need to have that grassroots mobilization.”

Paul Neiffer – The Farm CPA – also strongly supports American agriculture getting the certainty that a new Farm Bill would provide . The agricultural economy is seemingly in a recession, and without an updated Farm Bill, farmers may struggle even more with net farm income expected to be substantially lower in 2025, and existing crop insurance no longer able to provide sufficient relief.

Then, if the upcoming election alters the political landscape in Congress – some are predicting control of the Senate and House could potentially flip-flop – Neiffer thinks that could cause further delay and legislative gridlock.

This whole deal could end up looking like yet another extension of the 2018 Farm Bill coming down on October 1, and then one more in 2025, which nobody really wants, Neiffer believes.

“It’s going to be a struggle,” Neiffer told AgriTalk’s Chip Flory recently. “You know, right now a lot of farmers are still okay for this year, in that we have a higher crop insurance price. But you know, when we go into next year and let’s say the projected price on corn is $3.50 and soybeans are $9. Crop insurance is not going to help us next year.”

Neiffer also shared a troubling development that he’s heard. USDA is reportedly asking some farmers to repay ERP (Emergency Relief Program) payments due to issues with crop insurance coverage on certain acres. This has created additional financial stress for farmers who received these payments based on previous calculations.

“Because once you fail to insure one acre – we’re talking one acre – but once you fail to insure one acre, they go back and recalculate your payment,” he explains. “Now instead of qualifying for the 10% loss coverage, you now must qualify for the 30% loss coverage. So therefore, you don’t qualify for any payment. You have got to pay the full amount back.

“In parts of the Midwest, that is a huge, huge deal,” Neiffer adds, noting he has heard this directly from a handful of farmers and crop insurance agents.

No matter your view of things: analyst, farmer, equipment manufacturer, or even ag retail business leader, we can all agree on one thing. America needs a new Farm Bill, sooner rather than later.

“There needs to be resolution,” Landus CEO Matt Carstens recently told CNBC’s The Exchange. “Farmers are anxious for that and getting it right, and ensuring that it happens is as important as anything right now.”

Your Next Read: Crop Insurance Provides Price Security For U.S. Farmers That’s Not Available To Counterparts In Other Countries

Biden Steps Aside in 2024 Presidential Election

Sun, 21 Jul 2024 19:06:44 GMT

President Joe Biden made the historic decision Sunday to drop out of the 2024 presidential race, less than four months after being declared the Democratic Party’s presumptive nominee and days after a dismal debate showing.

Biden, 81, announced Sunday he will no longer seek another four years in office after his physical and mental acuity were called into question.

“It has been the greatest honor of my life to serve as your President. And while it has been my intention to seek re-election, I believe it is in the best interest of my party and the country for me to stand down and focus solely on fulfilling my duties as President for the remainder of my term,” Biden wrote in a letter posted to social media.

The president said he would address the nation later in the week about his decision. He did not immediately endorse vice president Harris or any other candidate to be the party’s nominee in November.

“For now let me express my deepest gratitude to all those who have worked so hard to see me re-elected,” Biden wrote. “I want to thank Vice President Kamala Harris for being an extraordinary partner in all this work. And let me express my heartfelt appreciation to the American people for the faith and trust you have placed in me.”

Of note: In another post on X, Biden said: “Today I want to offer my full support and endorsement for Kamala to be the nominee of our party this year. Democrats — it’s time to come together and beat Trump. Let’s do this,” he says in a post on X.

If Trump Wins in November, There Are 2 Front-Runners For Ag Secretary, And There Were Both at Saturday's Rally

Tue, 16 Jul 2024 17:55:48 GMT

Two potential candidates in the running for Ag Secretary if former President Donald Trump wins in November were also at the rally in Butler, Pa., when Trump was shot in the ear on Saturday. Sid Miller, Texas Ag Commissioner, and Kip Tom, an Indiana farmer who served as the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations during the Trump administration, were both in attendance Saturday.

Both men recounted their first-hand experience, while also saying the silver lining after the event is how Americans — especially those at the rally — came together to help one another. And what’s followed since, has been a sense of unity and patriotism that is changing the tone of the Republican National Convention taking place in Wisconsin this week.

“It almost feels a little bit like what 911 did,” Tom told “AgriTalk’s” Chip Flory Monday morning during an exclusive interview. “People seem more unified. When I watched the people leave where the rally was being held there in Butler, Pa., you saw people that didn’t know at the other ones, they’re helping the elderly get out, they helped them with their children. Everybody put their arms around each other and worked as one as they left in a very calm situation. I can think of other things that could have happened, it could have been people stampeding out the place, but the reality is people remain calm, they reunify, they’re talking to each other. And I’m telling you, today I’m up here at the RNC convention in Milwaukee, and you just feel the vibes of what it’s like to see a unified party and how people are trying to make sure we make America great again.”

Tom joined “AgriTalk” Monday morning to explain what he saw and heard during the assassination attempt on Saturday as he had a front-row seat.

“I want to start out by saying, you know, my heart and condolences go out to the family that lost a husband and a father, a neighbor, a firefighter who was sitting about 50' behind me with his family when bullets that were coming into the theater area where the President was speaking. So I also want to say thank you to all of the Armed Service guards who were there from the Secret Service through the local sheriffs and counties that were there to make sure that we had a safe environment,” Tom said. “Unfortunately, I feel that there was probably a failure at the very top of the Secret Service, providing adequate resources in terms of human talent, and the technical knowledge to get things done at that event to protect us all.”

Tom says there were tens of thousands of people in attendance on Saturday, which started when the gates opened at 8 a.m. He describes it as a hot and humid day, with temperatures reaching 95°F.

“These people were here to hear Donald Trump speak and talk about his plan for America,” he says. “I had a front row seat, but I think everybody in that audience actually had a front row seat, just see what happened on July 13 in Butler, Pa. So once the shooting started, people took notice to it.”

Tom says as soon as he heard the gunfire and saw Trump immediately go down, the first thing that flashed in his mind was the JFK assassination.

“Just all that transpired after the JFK assassination, and how our nation actually changed course, when we went under Lyndon B. Johnson, and just how the administration at that time dealt with plenty of issues that our country was facing at that time. So this could have been a big event changing the pathway for our nation going forward in the future. But fortunately, for the president, he’s okay,” Tom says.

Tom went on to say the assassination attempt should have never happened, and the failure falls on the Secret Service considering the Secret Service determines what level of security they want to provide different diplomats of the U.S.

“In the case of a former president, when someone is the presumed nominee, it really doesn’t change anything. When they’re the nominee, it elevates a little bit more. And of course, when they’re the president they have full on support of the Secret Service to make sure that a commander in chief remains safe,” Tom explains. “But in the case here, obviously Donald Trump isn’t the presumed nominee, he is the nominee, even though we’re holding convention this week, he’s got the ballots. He’s got the votes to make it happen.”

Tom says what he hopes to see is an increase in security for Trump, but also an investigation into Saturday’s shooting.

“I think there will be a hearing probably in the Senate or the House very soon, or maybe both chambers to address these issues with the director of the Secret Service to say, ‘How could this happen?’ This isn’t just about the president, it’s about Americans who were in that audience that were not protected from a man who’s 140 yards from the podium,” Tom says.

Farm Journal Washington correspondent Jim Wiesemeyer reports Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller was close to former President Donald Trump when Trump was shot in the ear at the rally this weekend. Standing just 30' away, Miller described the scene to KHOU-11, a Houston TV station. Wiesemeyer says Miller initially mistook the gunshots for a balloon pop and then a firecracker, Miller realized the danger when Trump stopped speaking. It wasn’t until the third shot that Miller realized it was gunfire. The incident lasted about five to six seconds.

Miller, who is a potential candidate for USDA Secretary if Trump wins the presidency again, shared his experience on social media, expressing shock and gratitude that Trump was not seriously injured. He also expressed sorrow for the innocent bystander who was killed and emphasized the need for unity and courage. Miller plans to campaign for Trump this summer and was heading to the Republican National Convention after the rally. His presence at the shooting has garnered significant media attention in Texas.

In the aftermath of the shooting, Miller observed that three people directly behind him were hit:

• A man who was struck in the head and died
• A woman hit in the chest, who remained in critical condition
• Congressman Ronnie Jackson’s, R-Texas, nephew, who sustained a superficial neck wound

In response to the incident, Miller called for increased mental health support and a reevaluation of security measures for political candidates. He also urged the Biden administration to provide security detail for Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who currently lacks such protection.

During the RNC this week, the tone is changing to a more unified one, according to Tom, who is representing Indiana at the convention his week.

“I know Trump is changing many of his speeches that he’ll be delivering throughout the convention time frame from Monday through Friday,” Tom says. “I know that he’s going to try to get people more unified, and he wants to unify the nation. Let’s face it, we’ve had fringes in both parties that have been kind of controlling the narrative, and I hope that we can bring those together and make sure we get our country on the right path to make sure we do always stand for all Americans.”

Also of note during the RNC this week, Wiesemeyer reports Jim Chilton a fifth-generation rancher from Arivaca, Ariz., will be speaking. His family has been in the cattle business for nearly 140 years. Chilton’s ranch extends to the U.S./Mexico border and is located in a top corridor for drug smuggling and human trafficking.

Wiesmeyer says Chilton appears to have been selected to speak at the convention to address immigration and border security themes from the perspective of a rancher whose property is directly affected by these issues.

He has testified before Congress multiple times about the challenges faced by ranchers in border areas. His inclusion aligns with the Republican Party’s focus on border security and immigration policy for the upcoming election.

In 2003, Chilton was named Rancher of the Year by the Arizona Cattle Growers’ Association. He has also received other awards, including: The True Grit award from the Arizona Cattle Growers, the Individual of the Year award from an unspecified organization, the Arizona Farm Bureau Oscar for outstanding achievement and the Farm Bureau Environmental Stewardship award. His wife, Sue Chilton, purchased the ranch near Arivaca with her husband in 1987, and they later expanded their operation by buying the neighboring Flying X ranch in 1991. Together with Jim, Sue implemented grazing management programs and conducted detailed environmental monitoring on their ranch.

They have been recognized as cooperators with the U.S. Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) since 1980. Sue was appointed by Arizona Governor Jane Hull to serve a five-year term on the Arizona Game and Fish Commission. In this role, she worked to improve relations between the Game and Fish Department and rural residents who provide wildlife habitat.

Washington Insider Goes Off Script to Forecast 2024 Election

Mon, 13 May 2024 13:23:56 GMT

While he says it’s still too early to get a clear picture of the upcoming elections, Capitol Hill veteran analyst Jim Wiesemeyer foresees the possibility of a Republican sweep of the White House, Senate and House of Representatives. He cites polling by his friend David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report and other sources that suggest a very close race for president but adds, “Law and order will prevail, much like it did in the 1968 election.”

Wiesemeyer provides a number of insights on Unscripted, a new Farm Journal podcast hosted by AgDay’s Clinton Griffiths and U.S. Farm Report’s Tyne Morgan. Each week, the podcast features Farm Journal hosts and editors sharing behind-the-scenes observations on the stories they’ve covered, giving viewers a unique opportunity to meet the personalities behind the personalities.

The inaugural episode of Unscripted was posted on Friday, May 10.

On that first episode, Wiesemeyer, a long-time D.C. analyst for Pro Farmer and regular guest on AgriTalk, offers informed insights on everything from the upcoming election to the importance of the next farm bill. “I think whoever wins the presidential race, that ups the odds that his party will win the House,” Wiesemeyer says, adding the races will be critical in determining extensions of the 2017 tax cuts and biofuel tax incentives.

But Unscripted is not just all about politics and gravitas. There’s a lot of levity, too. Segments are named using current Gen Z slang phrases, from “Talkin’ Tea” to “What the Sigma?”. The hosts and guests choose the craziest headline they’ve read or written during the week, and they also share what’s happening with their families. “This is where we get personal,” says Morgan. On the first episode, they discuss juggling kids’ events while meeting professional obligations and debate the best restaurant in Kansas City. In the end, Morgan christens Wiesemeyer “the O.G. of Ag reporting.”

“We’re not just going off-script,” Morgan says. “We’re throwing out the script altogether.” Look for new episodes of Unscripted every Friday on the Farm Journal YouTube channel.

New CoBank Report says Federal Reserve is on the 'Horns of a Dilemma’

Tue, 16 Apr 2024 15:47:20 GMT

The U.S. economy outperformed many economists’ expectations in 2023 and into the first quarter of this year, thanks to high employment numbers and consumer spending.

But Rob Fox, director of the Knowledge Exchange Division at CoBank, told AgriTalk Host, Chip Flory, there are worrisome clouds on the horizon. Namely, unruly inflation is not cooperating with the Federal Reserve’s efforts to tame it.

“Inflation numbers are not coming down as fast as they’d hoped,” Fox said. “The Fed has said as much that inflation is going to be a little bit higher for longer.”

Continued, high inflation contributed to the theme and title of CoBank’s new report released last week, “Sticky Inflation Puts Fed on the Horns of a Dilemma.” The report can be read here .

“The horns of the dilemma that I’m describing is that our economy is doing better than what everybody or a lot of people thought,” Fox told Flory on Monday. “Most people, economists, at the end of the year figured, ‘Hey, we’re probably going to have a recession. We’ve gone through the highest, fastest rate-increase cycle in the past 40 years. It’s almost impossible that we don’t have a recession.’ Well, as it turns out, we’ve avoided a recession, we’re doing much better than people thought,” he added.

Clouds On The Horizon

But Fox said some metrics are deteriorating and the Fed is watching them closely.

“For example, if you look at the broader unemployment numbers, and you include people who consider themselves to be under-employed, those numbers have been creeping up for the past year,” he said.

“Job openings have been declining for the past 18 months. Fewer people are quitting jobs, because they know it’s harder to find one,” he added.

Along with that, Fox said that real disposable income growth – which drives consumption and is the biggest part of the economy – has been trending downward for the past 18 months.

He cited information released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta in its weekly GDP forecast, called GDPNow, as another indicator that there are cracks beginning to show up in the economy.

“At the beginning of February, they predicted that the Q1 GDP for the year estimate would be 4% today, and (instead) they’re seeing 2.4%,” Fox said. “So, not bad, but a definite deceleration is happening right now.”

Wildcards In The Deck

In addition, he highlighted some wildcards that the Fed is monitoring:

Oil prices: They are approximately $90 a barrel now, and economists say they are likely to hit $100 by mid- to late summer. “That would be a big damper on the economy,” Fox said.

Federal debt: Fox said the federal debt is out of control “That’s driving up borrowing costs for everybody,” he said. “That’s driving up market interest rates, without the Fed having to do anything. So, federal spending is taking care of those rate hikes for them.”

Stock market: Fox said he sees similarities between now and what happened when the dot-com bubble burst in March 2000. “That bubble bursting back in the day was one of the main contributors to a recession the following year,” Fox said.

How is the Federal Reserve likely to respond in the near term?

“My bias today, right now, is that they’re hoping to push this economy stronger and crossing their fingers that within the next couple of months, this inflation doesn’t get worse than it is.”

Fox told Flory he believes the Fed will continue on its stated path to making three cuts to interest rates in 2024, unless some extenuating circumstances arise.“You know, we’ve seen a lot of crazy geopolitical things going on, and you never know, but the Fed rarely changes its stated policy,” Fox said. “I’m an outlier in the world of economists here, but I’m sticking with this position.”

Despite the national election being less than eight months out, Fox said he doesn’t expect that to influence the Fed’s decision.

“In my mind, they completely ignore it because as we know, these cuts take some time to take effect, and that won’t happen until after the election,” he said.

For more AgWeb articles, see:

Will We See a Hard Fall or Soft Landing? It’s the Million Dollar Question for the Farm Economy This Year

Gulke: What’s Causing All the Volatility in Commodity and Financial Markets?

Why Did Grains Give Back Friday’s Gains? Will Selling Escalate into Month End?

Infrastructure Woes To Watch: Potholes Plague Global Ag Trade

The AgriTalk discussion between Fox and Flory is available here.

Exclusive: Presidential Candidate Nikki Haley Shares Her Vision For The U.S., Agriculture

Tue, 09 Jan 2024 19:26:13 GMT

Nikki Haley, a candidate for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, joined AgriTalk on Tuesday to share her plans for the U.S. and U.S. agriculture if successful in her run for president.

Haley is a former ambassador to the United Nations and former governor of South Carolina.

AgriTalk has extended an invitation to all presidential candidates to join Host Chip Flory and answer five standard questions about what they would do if elected. That information follows below. You can also listen to the full conversation between Haley and Flory here:

Q1: What’s your motivation to be President? Why do you want the job?

A: The long answer to that is that my parents came here 50 years ago to an America that was strong and proud and full of opportunity. I want them to know that country again. I’m doing this for my husband, who is a combat veteran and who’s currently deployed. I’m doing it for him and his military brothers and sisters, because they need to know their sacrifice matters. They need to know that we love our country.

I’m also doing this for my daughter who just got married. I saw how hard it was for her and her husband to own a home. The average homebuyer right now is 49 years old. And I’m doing this for my son who’s a senior in college. I’m tired of watching him write papers and things he doesn’t believe in just to get an A. That’s not us.

Right now, 81% of Americans don’t think their kids are going to have as good of a life as we did. We can’t be OK with that. I’m not OK with that. I think we have a country to save, and I’m determined to do it.

Q2: What’s the No. 1 issue or challenge for America? How and when will you address it as President?

A: I think the first thing we have to do is end this national self-loathing that’s taken over our country – the idea that they say America is bad or rotten or racist. Our kids need to know to love America, they need to be saying the Pledge of Allegiance when they start school every day. And once we get that national self-loathing out of the way, we can start focusing on the economy and getting inflation back on track. We can start focusing on getting our kids reading again and going back to the basics with education. We can start focusing on securing our border with no more excuses. We can start focusing on law and order in our country, and we can start focusing on a strong America that we can all be proud of.

Q3: Let’s talk rural America, agriculture, farming and ranching. What issues will you address as President?

A: Well, you know, I grew up in an agricultural state, and I was governor of an agricultural state. So, I know the challenges. The first thing would be to get the EPA out of the way. Right now, they care more about sagebrush lizards than they do about whether we can afford our utility bill. Then, we need to start seeing producers as the partners that they are. Food security is national security; that’s always been the case, and we can’t ever be OK with getting our food from overseas. We have to make sure not only do we have enough food produced here in America, but that we have more than enough that we can export overseas so we can make it the powerhouse that we know it can be.

That’s the same with energy. You’ve got biofuels here in Iowa, and it’s hugely important that we see that for the opportunity that it is. So the biggest thing is, get the EPA out of the way, and let producers know that we’re partners and support them through the process. The one thing I saw in South Carolina is farmers are the ultimate survivors. They can’t control the weather, they can’t control pricing. So, the last thing they need is to … have government go and put other mandates on them, whether it’s water, whether it’s anything else. We’ve got to stop all that.

Q4: Describe your energy and renewable energy policy plans.

A: First of all, things that Russia, China and Iran never wanted us to have are a strong military, and they didn’t want us to be energy independent. I don’t want to be energy independent. I want to be energy dominant. We need to make sure that we do that by getting the EPA out of the way. We should roll back Washington’s old rules dictating when we can sell E15 fuel. The rules don’t make sense anymore, and we should get rid of them.

As president, I’ll roll back all of the Biden administration’s green mandates, especially the ones on electric cars that he’s trying to force on us. And when we start to focus on that, then we can see what economic incentives we have to make sure that we grow biofuels and biodiesel in a way we can export it. Let consumers decide which fuels they prefer. I think that’s the biggest thing. I’ll be completely supportive of Iowans and completely supportive of biofuels, and that includes supporting the Renewable Fuel Standard.

Q5: How will businesses small and large view the fiscal policies of a Haley administration?

A: If you put an accountant in the White House magic happens (Haley has a bachelor of science degree in accounting and finance from Clemson University). I will tell you that we are $34 trillion in debt, and we’re having to borrow money just to make our interest payments. China owns some of that debt. What we need to do is we need to stop the wasteful spending. We’re seeing that in both Republicans and Democrats.

The first thing that we’ll do is we’ll stop the spending, we’ll stop the borrowing. I’ll eliminate all these pet projects, and I’ll veto any spending bill that doesn’t take us back to pre-Covid levels. Secondly, we’ll move as many federal programs as we can to the state level. That way, you’re reducing the size of the federal government, but you’re empowering people on the ground and moving more of those resources to let the people decide how best to use them. Then, we want to let the middle class breathe, and the way we’ll let the middle class breathe is we will eliminate the federal gas and diesel tax in this country.

Then, we’ll cut taxes on the middle class and simplify the brackets, and then we’ll make sure that we make the small business tax cuts permanent. They made corporate tax cuts permanent, but they made small business tax cuts temporary. We’ll stop double-taxing farmers the way they are right now, which is keeping them from having generational farms taking place. When you do those types of things that’s when you really get spending back on track. You get inflation under control, and you help those that really need it. I know small businesses are the heartbeat of our economy. We need to start acting like it.

Q: On trade policy, former President Trump says he’s going to invoke at least a 10% tariff on all imports into the U.S. Is that something you would consider?

A: No, because you can’t. When you do that you’re costing Americans more money. The time you want to apply tariffs is when you’re dealing with an adversary, when you’re dealing with a situation where you need to go and make sure that you’re making things harder for them. We need to do more trade with more friends, and we need to do it in a way that we’re exporting as much as we possibly can. As governor, I focused on how to (help) businesses export as much as they could. As president, it should be no different. I would be the No. 1 salesperson of American products, of American produce, of American things.

If you just start doing tariffs on everybody, guess what? They do it right back to you, and then everybody suffers the consequences. So, you have to be strategic. You have to be smart. That’s when you can make sure that it’s more of an advantage and you use it as leverage. You don’t just use it as an across-the-board plan.

To date, along with Ambassador Haley, AgriTalk has also talked with presidential hopeful Ron DeSantis. That conversation is available here:

Exclusive Q&A With Presidential Hopeful Ron DeSantis

Exclusive Q&A With Presidential Hopeful Ron DeSantis

Thu, 21 Dec 2023 20:03:50 GMT

Ron DeSantis, candidate for 2024 Republican presidential nomination and current Florida governor, joined AgriTalk to share his plans for the agriculture industry if successful in his run for president.

AgriTalk has extended an invitation to all presidential candidates to join Chip Flory and answer the same set of questions.

Q: What’s your motivation to be President? Why do you want the job?

A: We’re in jeopardy of being the first generation of Americans to leave our kids and grandkids in an America that is less prosperous and less free than the one we inherited. As a father of a first grader, kindergartener and preschooler, that is not acceptable to me. I am not going to sit idly by and watch the managed decline of this country. We are going to reverse the country’s decline, we are going to usher in a new birth of freedom and we are going to create a revival of the American spirit. I’m running for president to get the job done.

Q: What’s the No. 1 issue or challenge for America? How and when will you address it as President?

A: I think it’s multifactor. I think it’s the economic struggles, the lack of sovereignty at our southern border and then the poor energy policy. So, we’ll do all that on day one. We’re going to take “Bidenomics” – the rules, regulations, executive orders – we’re going to reverse that. We need to get inflation prices and interest rates down. There’s more to do than just the “Bidenomics,” but we are going to do the “Bidenomics” and get rid of that.

We also need to declare a national emergency for our southern border on day one. I’m going to end this invasion. I’m going to build a border wall and I’m going to hold the Mexican drug cartels accountable for poisoning our people and killing them by the tens of thousands.

Then we’re going to reverse Biden’s disastrous Green New Deal energy policy. We’re not going to force people to buy electric vehicles. We are going to open up our domestic energy for production. We need low price and reliable energy in this country. It’s good for individuals, it’s good for businesses and it’s good for national security.

Q: Let’s talk rural America and ag, farming, ranching, etc. What issues will you address as President?
A: We’re going get the federal bureaucracy off the back of the agriculture industry, particularly our family farmers and ranchers. EPA is not going to be able to go on your property because you have a puddle and say it’s Waters of the United States. We’re going to rein in the EPA, we’re going to rein in the USDA. Farmers know how to take care of their land better than government bureaucrats.

We’re also going to reverse Biden’s electric vehicle mandate so we can support liquid fuels. We’re going to do year-round E15 and also allow for higher blends to be sold as people want to do it. I think there’s a market for it.

We are going to go against states like California who are doing things like Proposition 12, which is impacting how people are producing pork in Iowa. California should not be telling Iowa pork producers how to do their job. We’re going to provide relief there.

We want to eliminate the death tax, particularly for family farms. We shouldn’t have to sell the farm just to be able to pass it down to the next generation. It’s very important we do that.

Then we’re going to work to make sure what our farmers are producing can be sold all over the world. We want to increase access to markets in other parts of the world.

Q: When you say “rein in USDA,” are you talking specifically about some of the climate-smart farming programs at USDA?

A: We’re going to absolutely kneecap all of the climate-related impositions on agriculture, and I think it’s more than just USDA. This whole ESG movement – they’re trying to do it through the Securities and Exchange, all these other things. Ultimately, the movement behind this views agriculture as a big problem to what they’re trying to accomplish, so they target agriculture as being a source of all these problems. If those policies go into effect, it will create a food crisis in this country. It is not going to work. It’s very dangerous. I’m going to provide relief for that not just in USDA, but across the board. ESG will be dead on arrival in my administration.

Q: The Iowa Corn Growers and the Iowa Renewable Fuels Association, and others, say you are the only candidate who checks all the boxes with your support for biofuels. Describe your energy and renewable energy policy plans.

A: We want American energy and yes, that means opening up federal lands. That means doing things like Keystone and Marcellus Shale, but it also means producing biofuels here in the Midwest, here in the United States. [It’s an] important part of the economy and helps with affordability, so we’re going to be a supporter of that. Yes, we’ve checked all the boxes across the board because we understand how important it is.

As these issues come up with agriculture and biofuels, I have so many great people I’m friends with here in Iowa who will provide great counsel. From Gov. Reynolds, the members of your legislature, to so many great members of your farming community. I’m excited to be able to work with the folks here in Iowa as we advance good policy for them over many years in the future.

Q: One of the policies from the Trump administration made rather liberal use of the small refinery exemptions. Where would that stand in a DeSantis administration?

A: That would be a case-by-case thing. I know Trump had done some of that stuff. I don’t know really what all went into it. But obviously we understand there are stakeholders here in Iowa on that and we want to make sure we make everybody happy.

Q: How will businesses (small and large) view your fiscal policies?
A: It would be a big improvement over what we’re seeing now. You can just look at my record in Florida. We’ve cut taxes every single year, we’ve run big budget surpluses and I’ve actually paid off 25% of our state’s total debt that we’ve accumulated since the inception of Florida as a state in the 19th century. Imagine if you could do that in Washington. We’re the No. 1-rated economy in all 50 states. We’re No. 1 for new business formation, No. 1 for entrepreneurship, No. 1 for talent development and No. 1 for education. We’re going to downsize the federal bureaucracy.

In the state of Florida, we have one of the lowest, if not the lowest, state employees per capita, anywhere in the country. Our budget, even though we have millions of more people than New York state, is half the size of New York state. Yet, when people move from New York to Florida, they tell me our services are better, our roads are better and our schools are better. So, we’re doing all this at half the cost and in a much smaller government.

The bureaucracy that small businesses have had to contend with is way out of bounds. It’s way excessive. We’re going to be taking that off the backs of our small- and medium-sized businesses. The big corporations tend to do fine with big government because of all the rules and regulations and red tape that give them a competitive advantage over smaller companies. The people who get killed by the federal bureaucracy are the small family-owned businesses. Those are going to be the businesses I want to see succeed in this country. Washington’s no longer going to be a roadblock for their success.

Q: On trade policy, former President Trump says he’s going to invoke at least a 10% tariff on all imports into the U.S. Is that something you would consider?

A: No. First of all, that would raise prices for Americans. It would hurt the inflation we’re seeing, and then it would lead to retaliation from other countries. That would end up hurting farmers because they would cut off access to some of our agricultural products. I will be willing to use, strategically, trade policy to make sure we could restore key elements of our economy visa vie China. I think that’s important, and I think Trump talked about that. I don’t think they had great success at it. But if he does a global tariff, Americans will pay more for things, and there will be reverberations in the agriculture community.

Q: Final question. Yes or no: Should former President Trump be on the primary ballot in Colorado?
A: Yes, he should. That was a mistake the Supreme Court there made.