Drought

‘We Need Rain’: Dry Fields Stall Corn Planting

Thu, 14 May 2026 15:06:23 GMT

Planting season sounds different across central Kansas this year. By mid-May, planters usually run full tilt, pushing long days and short nights as growers race to get corn, soybeans, and grain sorghum into the ground. Instead, silence hangs over many fields. Drought-stressed soils, soaring fertilizer costs, and mounting economic pressures have kept many farmers from even starting, according to Matt Splitter.

“We’ve had 1.2 to 1.5 inches of rain this year during a window where we should be at 28 inches,” says Splitter, who farms in the I-35 corridor between Kansas City and Wichita. “It is dry. I can’t even find the right words for how dry it is.”

The data backs up his frustration. Approximately 65% of topsoil moisture in Kansas is currently rated as “short” or “very short,” according to the May 11 Crop Progress & Condition Report.

#DroughtMonitor 5/12: Drought worsened in large parts of the Northwest and Plains. Also the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic.

Improvements in AZ, CO, and the Southeast.

Mixed for WY, S. Plains, South, Northeast.#Drought2026’s Footprint: 51.3% of the USAhttps://t.co/mljsjQE3B9 @NOAA pic.twitter.com/ONOWe9IEfP
— NIDIS Drought.gov (@NOAADrought) May 14, 2026

On a recent school run, Splitter looked across empty fields that would typically be full of machinery.

“I took the kids to school and didn’t see one machine in a field — no tillage, no applications, no planting,” he told Chip Flory, host of AgriTalk. “Planting progress here is non-existent.”

Personally, Splitter gambled early on planting his corn, hoping the scant moisture near the soil surface would be enough to get a stand.

“We went early, thinking we were probably making the wrong decision,” he says. “We had just enough moisture for germination. The corn is up, but it can’t hang in there much longer.”

The National Picture

Corn planting in central Kansas, other parts of the High Plains and in the Southeast has been slow-going this spring. However, some states are surging ahead. Nationwide, 57% of the 2026 corn crop is in the ground, outpacing the five-year average of 52%.

The Crop Progress Report indicates the national average is being buoyed by high-efficiency corn planting in parts of the mid-South and Midwest:

The Early Birds: Tennessee and Kentucky are nearly finished, reporting 92% and 87% completion.
Midwest Movers: Iowa leads the I-states at 72% planted, while Illinois sits at 54%. Minnesota is at nearly 70% completion.
Emergence: Nationally, 23% of the crop has emerged — trailing last year’s 26% due to cooler, drier soils across the Central Plains.

Farming From A Desk in Kentucky

In central Kentucky, millennial farmer Quint Pottinger is planting corn from behind a desk, watching his fully autonomous tractor crawl across his fields, thanks to a computer screen. Pottinger says technology is his primary weapon against the brutal economic environment U.S. farmers are dealing with.

High expenses led him to equip a 100‑hp tractor with a Sabanto retrofit kit, sell his big-frame 8,000‑series tractors and 40‑foot planters, and move to a smaller 20‑foot planter. The result: he’s running a lot slower, but cheaper.

“We sold two large tractors, two big planters. That was the only way we knew how to cut costs in this economic environment we’re in, and we had no idea if it would work,” Pottinger says.

The trade-off is speed, but the gain is efficiency. “I can slow this planter down to 2.5 miles an hour to get the right depth as the soil dries out,” he adds.

Despite a smoother start than the flood-plagued springs of the last two years, weather remains a hurdle. A sudden frost during pollination “dinged” his wheat crop, causing a 20% loss in some areas.

The one bright spot? His rye grown for the whiskey industry is looking good. “It just grinds through this weather and keeps going. It’s a whole different animal,” Pottinger says.

The Fertilizer Squeeze

For both farmers, the drought collides with a second crisis: fertilizer prices. In Kansas, Splitter is trimming his nitrogen rates by 25% to 30%.

“We’re so dry that even if you apply fertilizer, the risk of volatilization is just too high,” Splitter explains. “We’re not spending as much money, because it wouldn’t do any good anyway. But there’s no truly ‘good’ decision here — it’s a perfect storm of bad options.”

Moisture outlook for farmers in Nebraska and Kansas is DEPRESSING. Opportunities this weekend are isolated in nature, and anyone who gets a drink probably deals with severe weather impacts. Another opportunity in late May, early June.

30-day outlook from EPS weeklies: pic.twitter.com/a36c7FuXWQ
— Andrew Pritchard (@skydrama) May 14, 2026

In Kentucky, Pottinger’s attempt to lock in prices failed when global political shocks in the Strait of Hormuz voided his deferred pricing contracts. He was forced to buy at market price — when he could find supply at all. He worries the fallout will last years, especially if natural gas production for nitrogen doesn’t fully recover.

“This should be a problem for 2027, not 2026,” Pottinger says. “I fear farmers will get taken advantage of in both seasons, potentially stretching into 2028.”

Searching For Optimism

Despite the stalled planters and market anxiety, both men are looking for reasons to stay positive — be it through cost-saving technology or policy shifts like higher ethanol blends that could drive demand.

“In tough times like this, everybody’s trying to find something to be optimistic about,” Splitter says. “We should be that way as an industry as a whole. We shouldn’t be pitting one guy against the other. That’s not what American agriculture is about.”

For now, optimism for Splitter and Pottinger depends on a simple, old‑fashioned variable neither farmer can control.

“We need rain,” Pottinger says. “We need rain now.”

Hear the full planting discussion and more on AgriTalk at the link below:

From 60 to 600 Bu. Per Acre: Is 1,000-Bushel-Corn Next?

Tue, 28 Apr 2026 12:23:14 GMT

Across parts of the South, farmers are sitting on the sidelines this spring, not not because fields are too wet, but because they’re too dry to plant. With dust blowing and soil moisture in short supply, planters are parked as growers wait for rain, a stark reversal of the delays they’re more accustomed to and a reminder that in agriculture, timing is everything.

“We’ve been dry all season so far and we actually stopped planting because we’ve been so dry. Can’t just get the planter in the ground,” says David Hula, a farmer in Charles City, Virginia.

After six weeks of high winds and little to no rainfall, Hula says the conditions are unlike anything he’s experienced.

“I talked to my cousin who’s a decade older than I am, and this is the driest he’s ever seen. And I’ve talked to my agronomist, he says we’re the third or fourth driest on record since 1875 for this time of year. So this is uncharted territory for me right now,” he says.

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While part of his crop remains unplanted, Hula is encouraged by what’s already in the ground.

“Everything that we’ve planted so far, I feel really good. Emergence has been spot on. Even their soybeans came up good,” Hula says. “We waited till things warmed up, you know, I’m very diligent and patient about that. And all that corn has come up awesome.”

Waiting Without Sacrificing Yield

With roughly 40 percent of his crop planted, Hula is now watching the skies and waiting for moisture before continuing.

“So the portion that you’re waiting on moisture to be able to plant at this point, you don’t feel like you’re sacrificing yield by waiting. You feel like you’re protecting yield,” we asked Hula.

“Oftentimes growers think, well, it’s too wet to plant or it’s been too cold. So they’re the things that you want to wait for. Well, we still, because we’re not late yet, we still want to make sure we get uniform emergence. That’s the key, that’s the first box every grower needs to be paying attention to,” Hula says.

He says with sporadic pockets of moisture within the dry soils, he says conditions are conducive for poor or uneven emergency when planting into drought conditions, and it’s a risk he’s not willing to take.

Hula’s World Corn Yield Record

That focus on emergence has paid off. Hula holds the world record for corn yield, producing more than 623 bu. per acre , a benchmark that underscores his disciplined approach. He says the year he grew that new record yield was in 2023, and it was a crop that wasn’t planted early.

“That was towards the end of May. I mean end of April, first part of May, but it seems like our highest yield stuff comes when we plant later,” Hula says. “And that is again, we’re checking that box of the crop coming up uniformly. And that’s the one thing I don’t know that growers really understand the importance of that. And once they do it and see it, they’ll say, you know, it might have been worth holding off for one week.”

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A Seed Legacy That Dates Back a Century

The hybrid behind that record yield — Pioneer P14830VYHR — carries a legacy that stretches back a century.

“One of the wonderful stories of Pioneer is actually the introduction of Raymond Baker,” says Dean Podlich, who leads R&D digital solutions at Corteva Agriscience, during Pioneer’s 100th anniversary celebration last week. “Raymond Baker was a college student. In 1926, he met Henry Wallace at an event at Iowa State. He was very interested in hybrid corn, and he said, I would like to get involved with hybrid corn to Henry Wallace. Together, they actually put an entry into the Iowa corn yield test, and they actually won that contest in 1927. This is actually a certificate from 1927. We actually have the ribbon.”

Podlich says that early success helped launch hybrid corn into mainstream agriculture.

“Raymond Baker actually quit college in 1928, he joined the company as a farm hand, and he would go on to lead the breeding organization for more than 40 years, especially after Henry Wallace went to Washington. And so there’s a huge amount of history that is the start of our research engine,” he says.

100 Years of Yield: 60 to 600 Bu. Per Acre

One of the inbreds behind modern hybrids, known as Baker’s Inbred or B164, still plays a role today.

“What’s fascinating is that David Hula had a world record with 623 bushels a couple of years ago. We can trace the family tree of the genetics behind that hybrid all the way back to Baker’s Inbred itself,” Podlich says.

Two kernels, 100 years apart: One yielded 60 bushels per acre in 1927; the other topped 623. They look nearly identical on the outside, but a century of genetic innovation separates them under the hood.

(Tyne Morgan)

To the eye, seeds from then and now look nearly identical. But the difference in performance tells a much larger story, from the seed yielding roughly 60 bushels per acre a century ago to more Hula’s record yield of more than 600 bu. per acre today.

“The thing that’s very striking as you look at these two sets of seeds is how similar they are. It’s really hard to see any difference, but under the hood these things are really, really different,” Podlich says. “You have 100 years of selection, 100 years of breeding, 100 years of improved agronomics, improved drought tolerance, and higher genetic potential. This one also has biotech traits in it that help increase yield, protect that yield from insects, and provide herbicide tolerance. So this is what’s so remarkable.”

Is 1,000 Bu. Per Acre Yield Next?

Even with record-setting yields already achieved, Hula believes the ceiling is still far off.

“My late granddad was the first one to break a hundred in the area. My dad, a couple hundred bushels, and we got three, four or five, and where we are now. And that has been a really steep incline. So I’m excited about where things are in the future. I have no clue what the yield potential is,” Hula says.

“Somebody was asking me what the yield potential is today. When you open up the bag, I would say it’s in excess of a thousand bushels. If that’s the case, we’re poor farmers. You know, here the country’s only averaging 180-some bushels, and if the potential is truly that, we’ve got a long way to go. But then can you imagine what price corn would be,” he says.

During Pioneer’s 100th anniversary last week, Sam Eathington, the Chief Technology Officer (CTO) for Pioneer, gave remarks to those in attendance. In his address, he not only looked at the past, but also gave a glimpse into the future. He says in 50 years when Pioneer is celebrating it’s 150th anniversary, he think it’s possible agriculture will have national average corn yield of 300 bu. per acre and record yields reaching 1,000 bu. per acre.

For Hula, he thinks that’s a very reasonable reality even less than 50 years from now.

“Within 50 years, yeah, I do think so. That’s almost doubling where we are. But think about where we have come. And then also think about the technology that’s coming about,” Hula says.

As advancements in seed technology continue and farmers gain deeper insight into soil health through biological tools, Hula says the future of yield remains wide open.

“But as they start figuring out how to allow the plant to be more efficient with what it can find in the soil, I’m excited about that,” he says. “And then the one key that nobody can duplicate is sunlight. As they start figuring out how to make plants more efficient with the sunlight that we have and the moisture, either lack or more, the sky’s the limit.”

Related Story: The Technology Poised to Revolutionize Corn Yields — Just as Biotech Did in the 1980s

Illinois Farmers Sidelined by Rain and Storms, as Southern Farmers Plant at Record Rates

Wed, 22 Apr 2026 15:21:30 GMT

While many Southern farmers are shattering speed records for the 2026 planting season, planters are sidelined for many farmers in the Midwest who are facing wet conditions. For the father-and-son duo of Dave and Chris Harrell, the 2026 season is off to a slow start. However, the corn and soybean farmers in Hancock County think the slight setback could be a setup for a successful season later.

Chris and Dave Harrell test the planter in Carthage, Ill.

(Haley Bickelhaupt)

“[There’s] little to nothing going on at all this week,” Chris Harrell said April 17.

“I know we’ve had roughly five-and-a-half inches in the last in the last two weeks,” he adds. The Harrells received 2 more inches of rain and storms last weekend.

The nation’s corn crop is currently 11% planted, sitting 2 points ahead of the five-year average. Much of that momentum is coming from Illinois and Indiana, which both had a big week in the field. Illinois is now 13% planted, and Indiana follows closely at 14%. However, the western Corn Belt is seeing a different pace. Iowa is off to a slow start, with just 2% of its corn crop in the ground as of this week.

Soybean planting is moving even faster relative to historical norms. Nationally, soybean planting is 7 points ahead of the five-year average at 12% of the soybean crop planted.

Harrell says farmers south of his family’s farm in Carthage, Ill., are further along planting. The Harrells planted one field of beans March 30 before rain paused their efforts. With 40 years of experience under his belt, Dave Harrell thinks the rain won’t set them back too far and that it will helpful in the weeks to come.

“We’ve got ample time,“ Dave says. “You know, it’s still middle of April, so we’ll be fine.”

Shown is the Harrells’ bean field as of April 17, 2026.

(Haley Bickelhaupt)

Navigating the Bottom Line: Diesel and Inputs

While the rain may eventually prove to be a blessing in disguise for yields, input costs, specifically fuel, are weighing heavily on the books. According to AAA, the average diesel price in Illinois this week is approximately $1.80 higher than it was this time last year.

“The diesel prices, I think, is No. 1 top of mind subject right now,“ Chris explains. “I mean, the price of corn’s gone up with it, but I think a lot of farmers would say it’s not gone up enough to offset some of it.”

To combat these rising costs, Dave is utilizing strip-till practices. He also relies on early contracts to lock in fuel prices.

“We lucked out and had some contracted to kind of cover our spring needs, so we’ll be OK through the spring,” he says.

(AAA)

Finding Opportunity in Non-GMO Premiums

In addition to conventional corn and soybeans, the Harrells also plant non-GMO corn from Wyffels. While the process requires more management, Dave said the financial upside makes it a win-win situation.

“It’s a little extra work on segregation and storage and clean out,” Chris says. “You just kind of have to have a little checklist and get through it all, but the premiums are nice, especially in a tougher environment like this.”

Four generations of the Harrell family stand for a photo. Dave’s dad still helps out on the farm today at 95 years old.

(Chris Harrell)

Looking Ahead

As the fields in Carthage begin to dry out, a new challenge has emerged: High winds are currently preventing spraying operations. However, the Harrells are rolling with the punches, expecting farmers in their area to potentially move back into full-scale fieldwork by Wednesday.

Chris Harrell works on the planter while waiting for fields to dry out.

(Haley Bickelhaupt)

This barn on the Harrells’ farm was built in the early 1900s. It’s been through storms and been given updates. Today, it serves as a shop for the family.

(Mike Byers)

Historic Gains in the Corn Belt South

According to latest USDA reports, corn planting in Kentucky and Tennessee is moving at its fastest rate since 2012. The numbers tell a story of an efficient window:

Tennessee — Farmers have 64% of the corn crop in the ground, which is a massive 40-point jump ahead of the five-year average and 42 points ahead of last year.
Kentucky — Growers are nearly halfway finished, sitting roughly 30 points ahead of the normal pace.

Soybeans See Record-Setting Pace

The speed isn’t limited to corn. Soybean planting is also rewriting the record books in the Deep South:

Louisiana — Leading the pack at 58% planted, which is 26 points ahead of average and the fastest pace in USDA history.
Mississippi — Currently at 55% planted, running 32 points ahead of the usual pace, another record.
Tennessee — Soybean planting has hit the 50% mark, 41 points ahead of the historical average.

The ‘Dry’ Reality: Farmers Forced to Wait

While the dry weather allowed for uninterrupted field time early on, the lack of moisture is now a major hurdle. David Hula says for growers in the Southeast, the dust has become too much.

“We’ve been dry all season so far, and we actually stopped planting because we’ve been so dry,” Hula says. “Can’t just get the planter in the ground, but it’s the first top, the first planting window. We waited till things warmed up, you know; I’m very diligent and patient about that, and all that corn has come up awesome.”

He says they stopped planting last Thursday, and there’s no measurable rain in the forecast.

“I don’t know when we’re gonna get started back,” Hula says.

Pocket of Extreme Drought

The topsoil moisture maps highlight a stark reality for the region. In a corridor stretching from Virginia to Georgia, topsoil rated “short to very short” in ranges from 83% to a staggering 97%. It has become one of the driest pockets in the country, creating a sharp contrast to the Midwest.

Canadian Farmers Look For A Fresh Start After The Driest Year In Decades

Mon, 20 Apr 2026 18:47:51 GMT

The way Tim Webster tells it, his 2025 cropping season was nearly a disaster. Summer delivered the lowest July–August rainfall his area had seen in 50 years. That lack and abnormally high temperatures pushed corn and soybeans to their limits.

“We had just enough moisture to get to the finish line,” recalls Webster, a sixth-generation farmer based just west of Lindsay, Ontario, Canada. The end result: corn and soybean yields came in at about half of normal.

Webster and fellow farmer Steve Crothers, who farms on the north shore of Lake Ontario about 50 miles east of Toronto, recently sat down with Illinois-based Farm Journal Field Agronomist Ken Ferrie to talk about how they’re adjusting cropping plans for 2026 after last year’s drought.

Drought Reshapes Farmer Expectations

For Webster, last season was a stark reminder of how quickly yield potential can evaporate. Ultimately, Webster’s bottom line took a hit.

“We’re hoping that doesn’t repeat again,” he told Ferrie.

Crothers’ experience, though slightly better, was still defined by drought. Growing corn, soybeans, wheat and edible beans along Lake Ontario, he says it was the driest of his 40-plus years in farming.

“We had a couple half-inch rains, so we kind of ended up with three-quarters of our long-term average yield. So, we fared a little bit better,” Crothers says.

Still, the season left him and Webster concerned about their cropping plans and finances for this year.

Crop Insurance As A Lifeline

Ferrie drew a comparison between Canadian and American safety nets as he listened to Crothers and Webster describe their experiences. In the U.S., Ferrie notes farmers often lean on multiple levels of crop insurance to blunt losses in a bad production year. He asked whether similar options exist for Canadian farmers.

Webster replied that growers there do have a provincial crop insurance program, but participation and coverage levels vary.
“I think we all felt after last year, maybe we should have been insured a little higher. But we were very happy to have what we had to help pay the bills, that’s for sure,” Webster notes.

Crothers says specialty crops, including edible white beans and adzuki beans, come under similar insurance frameworks as corn and soybeans, though they have higher premiums because of their higher value.

Most of the white beans grown in his part of Ontario head to the United Kingdom, while the adzuki beans (also called mung beans) are shipped to Japan, Crothers notes. Those export markets add another layer of risk to already weather-sensitive crops, making insurance an important backstop when weather or markets turn against them.

Fertilizer Sticker Shock Hits Canadian Growers

If drought defined 2025, fertilizer prices loom large over this season for Canadian farmers, much like they do for U.S. farmers.

“For 2026 our biggest thing is hope — hope for typical average rainfalls after last year’s drought,” Crothers says. “And then, of course, the economic challenges with the fertilizer situation are obviously troubling to everybody.”

He tells Ferrie most fertilizer in his part of Ontario is not prepaid “The fellows using 28% are usually prepaid, because it’s been hard to get the last few years. But generally, not near as much fertilizer is prepaid as what, in a perfect world, would have been.” Crothers reports.

That leaves many Canadian farmers more exposed to potential sticker shock as they head into spring planting.

Webster says he pre-bought some of his nitrogen (N) in February and is now leaning hard into a strategy of splitting applications and dialing back on more expensive, slow-release N options where he can.

This year, for his wheat topdress program, fertility costs didn’t pencil out, forcing a change in his plans.

“It’s $32 more [per acre] to go with the time-release product versus straight urea,” Webster notes. “So, I think on our wheat this year we’re going to do a lot of split applications.”

With diesel, fertilizer and other costs trending higher, he says, “anything you can do to save small increments adds up … for the whole operation.”

Cropping Plans: Adjust Or Stay The Course?

Both farmers describe their region as an area where crop rotations remain fairly consistent: corn, soybeans and wheat typically share the mix. Asked whether high input prices and drought fears would drive large acreage shifts this season, Webster says his own operation plans to stay the course with its rotation, helped by a marketing strategy that spreads grain sales out over time to manage risk and meet mortgage payments.

Still, he’s aware some of his neighbors are recalibrating their cropping plans.

“I know some guys are going to go less corn, more beans — just less dollars to put it in,” Webster notes. “Maybe the profits aren’t as high, but there’s less risk involved.”

Ferrie notes that, similar to Ontario, many U.S. growers also appear to be largely holding to their established crop plans, as their major fertilizer and seed commitments were already made before input costs soared.

In a region still feeling the effects of the driest season in decades, both Webster and Crothers are essentially betting on a return to something closer to normal this season — average rains, manageable input costs and no repeat of last year’s extremes.

“If we get good yields, then we can deal with those [costs],” Crothers says. “But another weather year like last year would definitely be a struggle for a lot of people.”

Crothers and Webster spoke with Ferrie during a meeting hosted by the Durham Soil and Crop Association, a grassroots group that works under Ontario’s agricultural umbrella to bring new ideas, funding opportunities and conservation programs to farmers in the region.

You can catch the entire conversation between Ferrie, Crothers and Webster on this week’s Boots In The Field podcast, available below.

60% of U.S. Now Facing Moderate to Exceptional Drought

Mon, 20 Apr 2026 16:54:04 GMT

The latest drought monitor shows three-quarters of the U.S. is now dealing with some level of drought or dryness. Of that, 60% falls in the D1 moderate drought to D4 exceptional drought categories, the highest level since November 2022. To put it in perspective, drought coverage has only exceeded 60% about 30 times in recent history, 25 of those during the widespread drought of 2012 and 2013.

(NOAA/NWS)

The drought and dryness picture is even clearer in the latest root zone moisture map from NASA , which shows the amount of moisture in the top 3' of soil versus a historical average.

The soil in parts of the eastern Corn Belt, the Southeast and into the western Plains is parched and in need of a rain.

The soil in parts of the eastern Corn Belt, the Southeast and into the Western plains is parched and in need of a rain.

(NASA)

Unfortunately, those areas might not see any measurable rain for a couple of weeks, causing the drought area to further expand and deepen.

Drought Monitor Shows Expanding Footprint

“The Drought Monitor has been roughly 80% now for over a month,” says Eric Snodgrass , senior science fellow, Nutrien Ag Solutions. “Remember, that’s using all drought categories, but 80% abnormally dry to exceptionally dry is a big area that’s coming out of a winter and spring with drought concerns going into summer.”

In the Southeast, he says Arkansas is showing a 15" deficit since last October. Recent forecasts for rain have been a disappointment or missed the driest areas altogether, creating a historic drought profile.

“The Southeast is enduring one of the driest springs it has had historically going back to the late 1800s. The drought there is a rough picture,” Snodgrass says. “The high plains are absolutely bone dry. Big dust storms. Nebraska’s really taking a beating. They’re pre-irrigating the crop.”

Winter Wheat Acres Could Be Abandoned

In winter wheat country, 68% of the acres are experiencing drought. Nationally, only 34% of the winter wheat is rated good to excellent. In Texas, 54% of the hard red winter wheat crop is rated poor to very poor, indicating some areas could see acres abandoned.

“I think there’s going to be a lot of lost acres. They’re waiting on rain that now if it comes, it’s almost too late,” Snodgrass says. “I was talking to a grower on the tip of the Red River, and he said he’s already had the insurance adjuster out and was looking at 1 bu. to 19 bu. yields. The crop is gone.”

(USDA)

Any Relief in the Forecast?

Snodgrass says the quick transition over to a super El Nino could provide some drought relief to those areas ... eventually.

“I think we’re going to see rains relieving the drought pressure — not alleviating, but helping in the Plains and in the Southeast in May,” he adds.

Unfortunately, Snodgrass says that relief will not last all summer.

"Super” El Niño Talk Grows: What It Means for U.S. Farmers

Mon, 13 Apr 2026 14:39:36 GMT

Now that La Niña is out of the picture, farmers across Texas and the Southern Plains are anxiously watching both the skies and the Pacific Ocean, hoping a developing El Niño pattern will finally bring relief to ongoing drought conditions.

The updated forecasts show chances are growing that a historic El Niño is brewing this year. According to NOAA’s April 2026 outlook , there is a 25% chance of a “very strong” or super El Niño developing by late 2026 or early 2027, while NOAA is placing a 50% chance for a “strong” El Niño yet this year.

Ag meteorologist Brian Bledsoe of Brian Bledsoe Weather says the talk of a strong El Niño could be good news for the South and Plains, but the area of concern remains in the Pacific Northwest for summer and fall. And he expects El Niño to continue to be a story into 2027.

While hope for rain relief in parts of the South and West centers on El Niño, in the short term, the question remains: will it arrive in time to matter?

Rapid Shift Toward El Niño

Bledsoe says the most important piece of the forecast right now isn’t just that El Niño is forming—it’s how quickly conditions are changing.

“The thing that I’m focused on right now is just simply the rate of change from where we are right now until about June,” he says.

Bledsoe says the most important piece of the forecast right now isn’t just that El Niño is forming—it’s how quickly conditions are changing. “The thing that I’m focused on right now is just simply the rate of change from where we are right now until about June,” he says.

(ECMWF)

Forecast models are showing unusual agreement on that shift.

“If we look at the latest European seasonal model—you’ve seen this all over the place—look at how closely packed those lines are together from now through June,” Bledsoe says. “That is the model exhibiting very good confidence in not only how quickly this is changing, but also how strongly it’s going to pivot in one direction.”

Confidence decreases further out in time, but the near-term signal is strong.

“As you get out there toward October, you see the lines spread out a little bit—that’s the model saying, ‘Oh, we’re uncertain exactly how strong this is going to be,’” he says.

Still, Bledsoe’s outlook is clear.

“I do think this is going to be a strong El Niño. I’m very grounded in that opinion right now.”

What Makes a “Super El Niño”?

As mainstream headlines increasingly use the term “super El Niño,” Blesoe says the definition is straightforward, but the implications can be significant.

“It just simply means that the sea surface temperature anomalies in a particular area of the Pacific get to be greater than two degrees Celsius above average,” he says.

Some forecasts are pushing beyond even that threshold.

“If we look at some of the computer modeling that’s out there, some of these models push that to over two and a half degrees Celsius above average,” he says. “That is a huge change from where we’ve been in dealing with the La Niña phenomenon off and on for about five out of the past six winters.”

That kind of shift doesn’t just stay in the Pacific.

“When you see that big change take place, it really has a big impact as far as global weather is concerned—let alone what goes on here right in the United States,” Bledsoe says.

Uneven Rainfall Pattern Continues for April

Bledsoe says recent rains have been inconsistent, with parts of the Southern Plains missing chances of rain, while areas of Kansas saw nearly 10 inches of rain over two days. But Bledsoe says that trend isn’t over yet.

“I think some folks got shorted out of this last round of rain,” Bledsoe says. “It’s been very easterly biased. And that’s really been the big trend so far, as these storm systems just simply aren’t slow moving enough and consolidated enough to yank that moisture farther back to the West.”

Brian Bledsoe says the ridge of high pressure parked over the east, but the blue in the west is what is sending energy that’s fueling storms benefiting some areas of the Plains.

(Brian Bledsoe, Brian Bledsoe Weather )

Bledsoe says over the next 10 days, that pattern largely holds.

“The thing that I’m focused on is all of that orange in the East, that’s where the ridge of high pressure is. But the blue out West, that’s where the upper-level low pressure is, that’s where the energy is coming from,” he says. “And we’re going to continue to send pieces of energy through the West and the Southwest that will come out into the Plains that will benefit some areas; however, not everybody.”

The result is a narrow window of opportunity for precipitation.

“Texas into the Midwest looks to benefit from this the most,” Bledsoe says. “But if you look at the western High Plains—which desperately need the moisture right now—we’re still not in a great pattern to bring that moisture far enough northwest to benefit you. And that does include northwest Texas, northeast New Mexico.”

Signs of Improvement Into May

While the short-term outlook remains mixed, there are signals that conditions could begin shifting as spring progresses.

“If we look beyond that for that 30-day period—from, say, April 21st through May 21st—we start to see that dry signal diminish considerably in the middle part of the country,” Bledsoe says.

That doesn’t mean drought is gone, but it may begin to loosen its grip.

“We still stay fairly wet from Texas into the Midwest. We are still getting moisture across parts of the northern Plains,” he says. “But it’s really right there—southeast Wyoming, western Nebraska, eastern Colorado, western Kansas, down to the Panhandles and eastern New Mexico—where that dry signal kind of relaxes a little bit.”

For producers in those areas, that “relaxing” of dryness could be an early signal of a broader shift tied to El Niño.

“I think that’s kind of a tell to how the pattern is eventually going to evolve as we push into this El Niño by the time we head into May,” he says.

EURO seasonal model forecast for precipitation from May to June.

(WeatherBELL)

Historical Clues Offer Encouragement

Looking to the past can provide additional insight into what might lie ahead.

“If we look at the historical analogs here—1972, ’82, ’97, 2015, and 2023—those five years fit most closely with where we are right now,” Bledsoe says.

“If you look at what the Plains do traditionally during May—they light up. They get much wetter than where they are right now. And that is certainly some good news,” says Bledsoe.

(NOAA Composite of previous comparison years for precipitation. )

And those years, according to Bledsoe, share an important trait for Plains agriculture.

“If you look at what the Plains do traditionally during May—they light up. They get much wetter than where they are right now. And that is certainly some good news.”

Model guidance is echoing that trend.

“The European seasonal model that just got released this week—that’s the May, June, July forecast—all of that green indicates precipitation anomalies that are wetter than average,” he says. “Even if they’re a little bit overdone, the situation is better than where we are right now from a historical basis.”

Temperature trends also offer some relief.

“When we look at the modeling from a temperature side of the coin here, we don’t see any extreme heat right there east of the mountains,” Bledsoe says. “The main heat signal pivots into the Pacific Northwest.”

Managing Expectations in Drought Conditions

Even with strong signals pointing toward El Niño, Bledsoe says improvement won’t happen overnight.

“Folks’ expectations have to be measured a little bit simply because we do have some dry soil and some drought to overcome,” he says.

The key question isn’t just whether rain comes—but how quickly it can make a difference. Still, once the pattern begins to shift, conditions could improve rapidly.

“Once we get things going, then I think it’s off to the races,” Bledsoe says. “It’s a matter of getting things going.”

A Longer-Term Shift Ahead

Regardless of whether it ultimately reaches “super” status, this El Niño event is expected to stick around.

“Even if it isn’t as strong as what some of the modeling is predicting—even if it’s just strong—that El Niño is likely going to continue into at least the first half of 2027,” Bledsoe says.

For producers who have endured multiple years of La Niña-driven variability, that could mark a meaningful, and potentially welcome change in the overall weather pattern. But for now, the focus remains on the coming weeks and whether the long-awaited shift begins in time to impact the 2026 growing season.

Boost Your Bottom Line By Keeping Your Soils In Place

Wed, 01 Apr 2026 20:21:09 GMT

Not every cost on the farm shows up on an invoice. In the view of Eric Beckett, some of the most expensive losses corn and soybean growers face this spring will be invisible — soil carried away by winds moving across their fields.

Beckett, an agronomist with Sunrise FS, says a combination of windier springs, tighter margins and volatile fertilizer prices is forcing a reckoning with long-standing tillage and nutrient application habits. The goal for farmers, he contends, shouldn’t be just agronomic performance this season but risk management, as well.

“Anytime we drag a piece of tillage equipment across the field, we are essentially breaking down that soil aggregate into smaller aggregates,” Beckett says. “That makes soil more susceptible to loss.”

While Beckett isn’t calling for an end to tillage, he is urging farmers in Illinois and beyond to consider the “ramifications coming down the road” before making multiple passes to clean up winter annuals or level tile lines.

A Growing Storm in the Midwest

Beckett’s concerns are grounded in shifting weather patterns. Meteorologists like Victor Gensini at Northern Illinois University have noted a rise in the frequency of convective storms and damaging straight-line winds across the Midwest and Southeast.

Likewise, Nutrien principal atmospheric scientist Eric Snodgrass reports that the Midwest is in a rapid transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions. While this “swift exit” can open planting windows, it also creates erratic atmospheric patterns. High-velocity winds are expected to surge through the Mississippi and Missouri River valleys through early April.

Beckett offers a concerned reminder for farmers tempted to push through windy conditions: “You’ve paid good money for that fertilizer. Why would we go out there when it’s windy and we have no idea where that fertilizer is going to end up, especially if it’s a variable-rate application where we know specific areas of a field need those nutrients?”

Calculating the True Cost of a Pass

Beyond the risk of blowing nutrients, Beckett suggests farmers “crunch the numbers” on the physical cost of every pass. With diesel prices hovering around $5 a gallon currently and tractor leases reaching $300 to $400 per hour, the overhead of extra tillage adds up quickly.

Beyond hard costs, tillage in what are currently dry soils will create additional costs. Beckett describes the ground in his area as “dry as a bone” six to eight feet down.

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, this isn’t just an east-central Illinois issue: 41% of the U.S. corn-producing area and 42% of soybean acreage are currently experiencing some degree of drought. In droughty conditions, every unnecessary tillage pass further dries out the seedbed and can impact topsoil.

Navigating the Label and the Law

Wind doesn’t just steal nutrients; it creates significant legal liability. Most herbicide labels cap applications at 10 mph—a limit that is a legally binding mandate for many products, not a suggestion.

“If you are applying outside those windows and something goes wrong, you can be held liable,” Beckett cautions. To navigate these tighter windows, he suggests focusing on three tactical areas:

Carrier Volume: Increasing from 5 or 10 gallons per acre to 15 or 20 gallons can improve coverage and reduce the risk of fine, drift-prone droplets.
The Dust Factor: Even if winds are within legal limits, fine soil particles can “tie up” product and carry it off-target before it even hits the ground.
Drift-Reduction Tools: While not a license to spray in a gale, modern spray tips and drift-reduction agents are underutilized tools that can significantly improve stewardship.

The New Era Of Documentation

As new requirements tied to the Endangered Species Act take hold, Beckett says the burden of proof for compliance falls squarely on the applicator—whether that is the farmer or a custom applicator.

“Each field has got to have its own documentation,” he says. “Even if it’s just a manila folder... fill out what your mitigation practices are, what your setbacks are. Have that established in a file so the applicator can add to it as the season progresses.”

This level of detail is necessary because the industry is “under the microscope.” In an era where every passerby has a smartphone camera, Beckett says an application in a dusty field can end up on social media in minutes.

Ultimately, Beckett is asking farmers to make a deliberate pause to question habits and routine applications.

“I’m not standing here saying that everybody’s got to put cover crops on and turn every field green,” he says. “But if, collectively, everybody took it a little bit more upon themselves, I think we’d be in a lot better shape.”

Beckett addresses the topic of managing tillage and spray applications in unpredictable weather conditions during a recent episode of the Illinois Field Advisor podcast. You can watch the complete podcast here .

Warm, Dry Spring Speeds Mississippi Planting Pace as March Freeze Forces Some Replanting

Thu, 26 Mar 2026 17:59:44 GMT

An unusually warm and dry spring is accelerating planting progress across parts of Mississippi, allowing farmers to move ahead of their typical schedule while also raising concerns about crop resilience and shifting acreage decisions.

On his farm in Sunflower County, Adron Belk’s planters are already running at full speed as conditions remain favorable.

“If everything goes well, the weather keeps on like it’s going, by the end of this week we should have all of our corn in the ground and probably all of our grain sorghum or milo,” Belk says.

Farmers Hit by March Freeze

Belk notes this year’s planting pace is slightly ahead of normal for his operation, though not unprecedented.

“It depends on who you ask… for us, this is about on time. Typically we’re a little bit later. I’d say maybe we’re a week earlier than normal,” he says. “A bit south of here, some guys planted a couple weeks ago and then we got an unexpected freeze.”

Corn in Mississippi hit by the freeze earlier this month.

(Chris, Mississippi )

That freeze is now creating challenges for some producers. Reports from nearby fields suggest damage to early-emerged corn, with some needing to be replanted.

“There’s a lot of talk going around right now of some of the corn looking like about 20% has got to be replanted, which was kind of a surprise,” Belk says. “Most of the time when you get freezes like that, the corn comes out of it.”

Buggy-whipping often occurs as corn recovers from freeze. This happens as new growth temporarily hangs on dead vegetation. They should soon pull free with little adverse effects.

For reference, the corn in the last photo still made over 250 bu/a despite severe hail damage. 🌽 pic.twitter.com/ptAO0nxYst
— Erick Larson (@MStateCorn) March 26, 2026

Focus on Fertilizer

Despite broader concerns about rising input costs across the U.S., Belk says his operation has avoided major supply issues so far.

“We book fertilizer early, and we’re very much in the South, and so we have not had any problems so far with getting supply,” he says.

While Belk is maintaining a relatively steady crop rotation — roughly a 50/50 split between corn and soybeans — other parts of the Mississippi Delta are seeing more dramatic changes.

Cotton Acreage Changes

Just north in Clarksdale, crop consultant Andy Graves says cotton acreage is expected to drop sharply this season.

“In this area, this is cotton country… it’s supposed to be,” Graves says. “We’re going to be about 50% off of what we planted in 2024.”

Graves says the reduction is significant, especially considering many growers typically plant thousands of acres of cotton each year.

“I’ve got guys that have been growing cotton — my average customer is going to grow three to four thousand acres of cotton every year — and a lot of these guys are going down to 500 to 1,500 acres,” he says.

He points to a combination of economic pressures behind the shift.

“The only reason they’re doing that is because they’re tied into a gin or they have a million-dollar cotton picker sitting there that they can’t park,” Graves says. “With what’s going on with fertilizer and fuel prices right now, it makes it even more unattractive to plant the stuff. The market isn’t there.”

Dry Conditions Aid Planting Progress

84% of the South is seeing dry conditions as of March 26, 2026

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

It’s not just the dry spring causing many farmers in the region to make strong progress and run slightly ahead of their typical planting window, it’s also how dry it’s been. According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor, 84% of the South is seeing dry conditions as of March 26, 2026. If you look just at Mississippi, 68% of the state is seeing some level of drought.

Farmers say there’s enough topsoil moisture to plant the crop, but the drought picture this early in the year is a concern.

Mid-March Heat Wave Shatters Records in the West — Is This a 2012-Style Setup?

Fri, 20 Mar 2026 17:02:58 GMT

A powerful and persistent heat wave is sweeping across the western United States, shattering temperature records and fueling growing concern among farmers and ranchers about what it could signal for the months ahead.

From the deserts of the Southwest to the inland Northwest, the scope and intensity of this early-season heat event is turning heads. More than 60 daily record highs have already been set, with temperatures reaching levels far more typical of late spring or even midsummer.

Forecast high temperatures today through Monday. Tomorrow still appears to be the worst of it, before a "cold front" enters the picture...#desertfarmers #cowx #wywx #kswx #newx #okwx #txwx pic.twitter.com/vQ3NXruOrG
— Brian Bledsoe 🐊 (@BrianBledsoe) March 20, 2026

In Palm Springs, the mercury surged to a scorching 103°F. Phoenix hit its first 100°F day of the year — marking the earliest occurrence on record and breaking a longstanding record set in 1988. Meanwhile, Boise climbed to 80°F, the earliest date that threshold has been reached since record keeping began in 1875, and only the second time it has ever happened during winter.

For producers already navigating tight margins and dry pasture conditions, the question is immediate and pressing: With the current drought picture and early extreme heat, is this a similar setup to 2012?

A Stubborn Pattern Takes Hold

According to Brian Bledsoe of Brian Bledsoe Weather, the current heat wave is being driven by a dominant atmospheric feature that is effectively locking in warmth and shutting out precipitation.

“Well, the good thing about this time of year is that with the seasonal change that takes place, we usually see some weather variability take place along the way, instead of just getting locked into these things for just weeks on end,” Bledsoe explains. “And I think that’s an important thing to consider here. First of all, that I’m much happier that this is occurring now, if it has to occur — versus, say, in July or August, because we’ll see this thing break down eventually.”

The high heat in the West is forecast to stick around until at least early April.

(Brian Bledsoe, Brian Bledsoe Weather )

He says the current setup isn’t brief in the short term, with the forecast map showing the high heat sticking around through at least early April.

“If we look at our forecast temperature anomalies right through April 1, you see that big orange and red blob over the West and the Southwest. And for that matter, across a large part of the country. This ridge is not just going to impact the West. I’s going to spread its way eastward,” Bledsoe explains.

That expansion of warmth could bring above-normal temperatures to regions that have not yet experienced much seasonal heat.

“It’s going to bring a substantial amount of warmth to some areas of the country that haven’t been necessarily all that warm,” Bledsoe says. “So we’re locked in this at least through the end of March.”

Heat and Dryness Go Hand in Hand

The same high-pressure ridge driving the heat is also suppressing precipitation — a combination that is particularly concerning for agriculture.

“Precipitation anomaly-wise, that’s also going to be kind of owing to what this ridge is about, which is just kind of blocking any big storms from coming in from the Pacific,” Bledsoe says. “So, wherever you’re seeing the brown, that is likely where we’re going to see drier-than-average conditions through the same time.”

Much of the Southwest, and the central and southern Great Plains, missed out on precipitation, and instead dealt with a dry, warm and windy week.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

Why that’s so concerning is the latest U.S. Drought Monitor, which shows 41% of the nation’s corn production area is already in drought . For cotton, 89% is facing dry conditions. For cattle country, 54% of the current cattle inventory is experiencing drought.

This week’s drought picture reflects a sharp split across the country. While areas of the upper Midwest and East saw rain and snow, much of the Southwest, central and southern Plains, and parts of the western U.S. experienced a dry, warm and windy week, which worsened conditions.

Drought and abnormal dryness expanded or intensified across areas like South Dakota, Nebraska, southwest Kansas, southern Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada and parts of Oregon that missed out on meaningful moisture. Overall, while some regions saw clear improvements, the lack of precipitation and ongoing moisture deficits continue to drive worsening conditions across a broad swath of the western and central U.S.

That lack of moisture, combined with unseasonable warmth, could accelerate soil moisture depletion and stress rangeland and early-planted crops. Still, Bledsoe emphasizes the calendar offers some reassurance.

“There is some potential for this to break down, though, I think, as we get into April,” he said. “And I think, as I mentioned, that is a very important thing to consider.”

Ocean Temperatures Play a Major Role

Beyond the immediate atmospheric setup, Bledsoe points to broader oceanic influences that are helping fuel the current pattern, but more particularly what’s happening in the eastern Pacific.

“The other element of this is what’s driving this in terms of heat right now, and it has a lot to do with the sea surface temperature anomalies situated off the west and southwest coast of the United States,” he says.

“If you look at those sea surface temperature anomalies there off the Baja, that is a lot warmer than average than we should be. And if you go just to the south of there, that’s the western tip of South America, and that’s where our budding El Niño event is taking place,” Bledsoe adds.

Sea surface temperatures tell the story for what summer could bring.

(Brian Bledsoe )

Those warmer waters are part of a larger pattern known as the Pacific Meridional Mode (PDO), which can have significant impacts on U.S. weather.

“There’s a lot of warmer-than-average water that’s right there in the East and the Northeast Pacific Ocean,” Bledsoe says. “And any time you see this signature right there, especially off the southwest coast of California, the Baja, western New Mexico — that is referred to as the positive phase of the Pacific Meridional Mode.”

He says the current setup bears some resemblance to patterns seen in recent years, including 2023, when a rapid transition from La Niña to El Niño coincided with widespread heat.

“One important reference that I want to kind of draw a comparison to here is the last time we had a really positive Pacific Meridional Mode,” Bledsoe says. “This is what happened in July and August of 2023. And remember, I’ve talked about this before, but 2023 was the last that we went from a La Niña to an El Niño in a pretty quick fashion. And we also had that positive phase of the Pacific Meridional Mode.”

The result then was widespread warmth across the West and into the southern Plains and Gulf Coast. However, precipitation outcomes were more mixed.

“You might say, well, did that necessarily reflect a dry summer too? Were the precipitation anomalies dry for that? For some areas, but not everybody,” Bledsoe says. “And I’m not saying that 2023 is exactly what this upcoming year is going to be. I’m just trying to draw some parallels here from where we might see some of these things take place.”

Not the Same As 2012

Bledsoe says the current weather pattern bears watching, but it’s important not to confuse it with the historic 2012 drought. One of the biggest differences is the large-scale atmospheric and oceanic setup. In 2012, the U.S. was working from a weak La Niña base, and a persistent ridge of high pressure locked in over the central Corn Belt, cutting off moisture and allowing heat to intensify week after week. That kind of feedback loop is what turned a hot pattern into a historic drought.

Have talked about this more than once lately, but here is a look at the Ensemble Oceanic Niño Indices (courtesy of @webberweather) from 2010 through 2023. The ENS ONI for 2012 was negative early and slightly positive late. However, here is the sea surface temperature anomaly… pic.twitter.com/Q8PDo9XEhn
— Brian Bledsoe 🐊 (@BrianBledsoe) March 14, 2026

This year, the setup is fundamentally different.

“You can’t, from a sea surface temperature standpoint,” he says. “I’ve talked a lot about this on X. That same area of the ocean that I was just showing you just a little bit ago was a lot colder than average than where we are right now,” Bledsoe says. “So, there are different forces at work. When you get cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures off the west coast of North America, extended from the Baja all the way up to the Gulf of Alaska, a lot of times that is a very strong heat and drought signal for the center part of the country. And right now, that is the complete opposite.”

NOAA

(NOAA )

The transition into El Niño conditions tends to favor a more active storm track and can help keep systems moving across the country, rather than allowing a dominant, stationary ridge to take hold. Bledsoe points out while heat will still develop, especially in parts of the South and West, the overall pattern does not show the same prolonged, stagnant heat dome that defined 2012.

The current soil moisture levels and early-season precipitation are generally more favorable than they were heading into the 2012 growing season. Back then, much of the Corn Belt was already running dry before the worst of the summer heat even arrived, which allowed drought conditions to escalate rapidly. Today’s environment, while not without risk, starts from a less vulnerable position.

NOAA

(NOAA)

That said, Bledsoe cautions there are still areas to watch. While the central U.S. doesn’t appear poised for a 2012-style widespread drought, there are signals pointing toward heat and dryness across parts of Texas, the southern Plains and areas along the Gulf Coast. He notes a scenario where spring moisture gives way to drier summer conditions that could set the stage for localized flash drought concerns by mid-to-late summer.

Overall, Bledsoe says the takeaway is that while 2012 remains a benchmark for extreme heat and drought, the current setup does not mirror the same atmospheric drivers. The pattern this year appears more dynamic, with regional risks rather than a single, dominant, all-encompassing drought signal across the heart of the country.

A Critical Window Ahead

For now, the early-season timing of this heat wave may ultimately limit its long-term damage, but it does not eliminate risk.

“We obviously have to prepare for it,” Bledsoe says. “But the good thing about something occurring right now is that it’s transient. It will get out of here.”

He adds: “And I’m sure we’re going to see something that is probably more akin to that spring change soon.”

Until then, producers across the West, and increasingly across the central U.S., will be watching forecasts closely, balancing cautious optimism with the reality that the 2026 growing season is already off to an unusually hot start.

El Niño Watch: 62% Chance of Arrival This Summer, But Drew Lerner Warns Extreme Forecasts May Be Overblown

Fri, 13 Mar 2026 19:58:29 GMT

Farmers are keeping a close eye on the Pacific as La Niña, which has dominated weather patterns across much of 2026, begins to give way to El Niño. The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center (CPC) now reports La Niña persisted through February, with below-average sea surface temperatures across the east-central equatorial Pacific. However, rising subsurface ocean temperatures and weakening trade winds signal a likely shift to El Niño by this summer, potentially bringing dramatic changes to rainfall, planting conditions and crop development across the U.S.

CPC says that means the US. is now under an El Niño watch, forecasting a 62% chance that El Niño will emerge between June and August and continue through the end of 2026. But the event’s ultimate strength remains uncertain.

“There is only about a one-in-three chance that this could become a strong El Niño during October to December 2026,” CPC notes, underscoring the unpredictability farmers must plan around this year.

This transition from La Niña to El Niño could have major implications for the spring planting season in the Midwest, the central Plains, and the Southeast, where early dryness or shifting rainfall patterns may affect field work, soil moisture and crop progress.

While some meteorologists are saying there are signs this could be an extremely strong El Niño event , Drew Lerner, president of World Weather, cautions that strong of a declaration just yet.

A #LaNina advisory remains in effect. An #ElNino Watch has been issued. (2/2) https://t.co/5zlzaZ0D9Z pic.twitter.com/WpmK4dNKfn
— NWS Climate Prediction Center (@NWSCPC) March 12, 2026

Subsurface Ocean Warming Signals Early El Niño Development and Global Weather Shifts

What we do now is La Niña is making a quick exit.

Lerner says the current ocean subsurface warming is the early trigger for El Niño, which has far-reaching effects on weather patterns worldwide.

“The ocean subsurface water temperatures are anomalously warm, and we do see a strong upwelling current taking place as we move forward through the next several weeks,” Lerner says. “That will bring that warmer-than-normal water from below the surface up to the top. Once you bring it to the surface, you start shifting high and low pressure systems around the world. That’s when you’ll see El Niño beginning to influence everybody’s weather.”

Lerner notes farmers may not see immediate effects, but the pattern will begin influencing U.S. weather in a few weeks and become more pronounced by mid-summer.

“This is probably six to eight weeks before we really start to see any influence, and it will become more significant as we go through the Northern Hemisphere summer months,” he says. “We’ll likely see this El Niño become a little better defined by July and August.”

Understanding this early subsurface warming is critical for farmers to anticipate planting conditions, irrigation needs and crop development challenges.

Timing of El Niño Formation Remains Uncertain Despite Increasing Odds

While CPC forecasts a 62% chance of El Niño forming by late summer, Lerner warns several factors could shift or delay the event, making early-season planning more complex.

“There are a number of factors that could change that forecast quite a bit,” he says. “The Climate Prediction Center modified its official forecast from the raw model data. If you go to their website, you’ll see the actual forecast from their models suggests El Niño could be here in May, maybe even late April. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology also suggests it could begin in May or June. If that happens, weather around the world could start to change fairly quickly.”

Lerner stresses long-range forecast models are more reliable over three months and cautions farmers against assuming early signals guarantee timing or intensity.

“One factor is the strong easterly winds blowing across the equatorial Pacific,” he says. “If those winds lighten, it could delay the onset of El Niño. I have a lot of confidence we will move into an El Niño during the summer months, but the intensity and exact timing are still uncertain. My biggest question is how intense it will be, and at the moment, I want to play that down compared to what some forecast models have been suggesting.”

Farmers should track the weakening of trade winds and ocean temperature patterns closely, as these will influence planting schedules and fieldwork conditions in the coming months.

How Strong Could This El Niño Be?

Farmers are concerned about the potential strength of this El Niño, given its impact on rainfall, drought risk and crop yields.

“In 1998, we had a really strong El Niño that was disastrous, but it wasn’t predicted to be nearly as strong early on as it ended up being,” Lerner says. “This year is unprecedented in terms of early signals. It may also test our improved models, which attempt to forecast more than three months out. I think these models may be overreaching a little, and we could see the El Niño develop more slowly than some models suggest.”

Lerner predicts a moderately strong El Niño is possible, with peak impacts more likely in the latter part of the third quarter or into the fourth quarter of 2026.

“We might get to a very strong event, but not nearly as quickly as what some of the model data suggests today,” he says. “A moderately strong El Niño is a possibility, more likely later in the year.”

Farmers should be cautious about making early assumptions regarding extreme drought or flood events and plan for gradual changes in conditions.

Potential Impacts on U.S. Growing Season: Drier Springs, Variable Summer Rainfall

For U.S. farmers, the timing and intensity of this El Niño could bring mixed outcomes for planting and crop development. Lerner says a rapid transition from La Niña to El Niño can produce a drier bias in key agricultural regions.

“Our studies show that when we move quickly from a La Niña in January to an El Niño by June, the Midwest tends to have a drier bias in the spring,” he says. “This is particularly true in hard red winter wheat country and the central and southeastern Plains. That’s a concern because we already have dryness in some areas. A quickly developing El Niño could mean a fairly dry spring. That will help with field progress moving quickly, but crops may be limping along for a while.”

While spring dryness could help farmers get into the fields earlier, it may also stress emerging crops if rainfall does not arrive in time.

Lerner adds summer rainfall will likely vary by region.

“In the summer, situations like this often show improvement in rainfall in the Midwest and Northern Plains,” he says. “But the Delta, Mid-South, and southeastern U.S. have a tendency toward a drier bias with quickly developing El Niños. We already have some moisture deficits in the Delta, Tennessee basin and southeastern states. If rain intensities remain low, dryness could worsen as we move into late summer.”

Farmers in these regions may need to plan irrigation strategies and monitor soil moisture closely to offset potential dry spells.

Planning Ahead for Crop Management: Field Decisions, Irrigation and Risk Strategy

Lerner advises farmers to monitor early signals from the Pacific closely and to prepare for variability in precipitation and temperatures throughout the season.

“A quick movement from La Niña to El Niño could cause some spring problems in the Midwest, but much better conditions in the summer,” he says. “Meanwhile, the Delta and Southeast would probably see progressively more significant dryness by late summer. Farmers need to be aware and prepare accordingly.”

The key, he says, is understanding both the speed of El Niño development and its intensity to make informed decisions for planting, irrigation and crop management strategies.

“Pay attention and prepare for a spring with potential dryness in some areas and moderate rainfall improvement in others as the season progresses,” Lerner says. “This could influence how you handle fieldwork, fertilizer application and even crop marketing as the season develops.”

Early Planting Unlikely for Much of Eastern Corn Belt as Wet Pattern Dominates Spring Outlook

Mon, 09 Mar 2026 19:37:23 GMT

While some farmers may be enjoying the recent stretch of unusually warm temperatures, the broader spring weather pattern suggests early planting will likely be difficult across much of the eastern half of the country.

Matt Griffin, meteorologist with BAM Weather, says the start of March brings temperatures well above seasonal averages in many areas, particularly across the southeastern U.S. But those warmer temperatures are coming alongside an extremely active weather pattern that continues to deliver frequent rainfall.

The forecast points to an active moisture track from the eastern half of the country through March 12th.

(Matt Griffin, BAM Weather )

“Over the next week or so, it’s just going to be very warm,” Griffin says. “It’s going to continue to be very warm and very active.”

Griffin says the warmth is widespread across the eastern half of the country. In some areas of the eastern Ag Belt, temperatures are running significantly above normal for early March.

“We’re starting off March on a very warm note,” he says. “In fact, some of those colors into the eastern Ag Belt, the eastern U.S., in some spots 20 degrees above normal.”

However, the bigger concern for farmers isn’t the temperature. It’s the amount of precipitation expected to accompany the pattern.

Griffin says forecasts show a wide swath of rainfall stretching from Texas into the Ohio Valley, with some areas expected to see multiple inches of rain in a short period of time.

“With this pattern coming, a lot of rain,” he says. “In fact, you can see this corridor of rain from near Dallas stretching into the Ohio Valley.”

Flooding Concerns Already Building

Some parts of the eastern Midwest could see particularly heavy totals.

“The folks in the Eastern Ag Belt, lots of rain,” Griffin says. “That area of pink there suggests amounts of three-plus inches of rain.”

In parts of the region, the ground is already saturated from recent systems. Griffin says the combination of previous rainfall and additional storms raises concerns about flooding. He adds that the areas receiving the heaviest precipitation could continue to deal with high water issues.

“I think anywhere you see the purples and the pink colors, and especially the blue areas, we’re going to have a continuation of flooding issues as well,” Griffin says.

Mid-March Cold Front Brings Another Shift

Even though the opening stretch of March is unseasonably warm, Griffin says that warmth likely won’t last the entire month.

A colder air mass is expected to push through the country around the middle of March.

The forecast points to an extremely mild pattern for the western half of the U.S. in March.

(Matt Griffin, BAM Weather)

“The warmer temperatures I don’t think are here to stay necessarily,” Griffin says. “If we look at the following week’s pattern, this is around March 13th to the 19th, we do see a cold front that passes through.”

That cold front will help bring temperatures closer to normal across portions of the eastern Corn Belt, he says.

“It will help, especially for some of you folks in the Eastern Ag Belt, really knock down those temperatures a little bit,” Griffin says.

In addition to cooler temperatures, the system could bring another round of precipitation and even some late-season winter weather for northern areas.

“This would be a window for a sneaky wintery weather threat,” he says. “The Northern Plains into the Great Lakes, through Michigan and into the interior Northeast—not impossible.”

Active Storm Track Through March

Even beyond that system, Griffin says the broader weather pattern remains active through the remainder of March, especially in the eastern half of the country.

“Once again, I’m going to sound a little bit like a broken record,” Griffin says. “The Eastern Ag Belt and the Northeast, where the rain I think can be above normal in those spots.”

The active storm track could also bring severe weather risks at times as the region transitions deeper into spring.

Above normal to much above normal precipitation is in the forecast for the eastern part of the U.S., along with the northern tier of the country, as we finish March.

(Matt Griffin, BAM Weather)

“At times, not only this week but last week as well, there is some potential severe weather associated with this as we head into the first half of March,” he says.

Looking further into the month, Griffin says the divide between wetter eastern areas and drier western regions becomes more pronounced.

“Later into March, I do think we continue to see this active weather pattern into the Eastern Ag Belt in particular,” he says.

Forecast maps show significantly above-normal precipitation stretching from Ohio southward through Kentucky and Tennessee.

“Our latest forecast shows much above normal rains into Ohio, down into Kentucky, into Tennessee,” Griffin says.

Because of the ongoing storm activity, he says it would not be surprising to see additional severe weather events during the period.

“That active weather pattern remains,” he says. “Wouldn’t be shocked to see some bouts of severe weather.”

Meanwhile, conditions further west are trending in the opposite direction.

“It’s going to be a bit of an Ag Belt divided,” Griffin says. “Wet east, dry to the west.”

Temperatures are also expected to fluctuate frequently as the pattern evolves.

“We’re going to see ups and downs in our temperatures,” Griffin says. “I do think it’ll be a little bit of a roller coaster ride.”

He points to another cooler stretch likely developing around the third week of March.

“We get around March 18th through the 22nd, it’s probably going to be a little colder,” he says.

El Niño Influence Builds Into Spring

As the calendar turns to April, Griffin says longer-range indicators show an emerging El Niño pattern beginning to influence weather across the United States.

“What I think starts to occur is we start to feel a little more influence of our emerging El Niño,” Griffin says.

April’s weather pattern is shaping up to be divided, with below normal precipitation for parts of the West, and above normal precip in the South, along the Atlantic Coast and in the Northeast.

(Matt Griffin, BAM Weather)

That shift could move the corridor of heavier rainfall slightly farther south and east.

“What that’s going to do is shift the above-normal rains a little bit further to the south and to the east,” he says.

Areas such as northeastern Texas and the Tennessee and Kentucky River valleys may see an increased focus for precipitation.

“Where I think the focus of the rain will be is areas into say northeastern Texas into the Tennessee, Kentucky River valleys and some of those areas as well,” Griffin says.

Even so, parts of the central Corn Belt could still see periodic rain events.

“If you’re in areas eastern Iowa to Ohio, I still think there’s some rainfall opportunities there,” he says.

Watching Frost and Moisture Into May

Temperature patterns may also turn somewhat cooler in parts of the Plains during April.

“I do think this will be a little bit of a colder pattern, especially for some of you folks in the Northwestern Plains into the Northern Plains,” Griffin says.

He also says early April could bring the possibility of additional late-season winter weather in some regions.

“We may have some early April sneaky winter events as well,” he says.

May looks to turn dry in the heart of the U.S., with below normal temperatures in the east and heat in the West.

(Matt Griffin, BAM Weather)

By May, the broader weather pattern may shift again as the El Niño signal strengthens.

“I think the colder air that we talked about in April does start to bleed to the east,” Griffin says.

At that point, rainfall may concentrate more heavily across the southern tier of the country.

“We continue to see this transition more into this El Niño,” he says. “The southern jet stream is just going to be a little bit more energetic.”

That setup could bring above-normal rainfall to the desert Southwest, Gulf Coast and southeastern U.S.

“I think that’s where the rain, above normal rains, are going to be more focused,” Griffin says.

Meanwhile, parts of the Plains may trend drier as spring progresses.

“You can see much below normal at this point into areas into the Plains—the Northern Plains, the Central Plains,” he says.

Despite those shifts, Griffin says the temperature outlook for May does not currently suggest extreme heat.

“At this point we’re not talking about any extreme temperatures one way or the other,” he says.

He notes the dryness across parts of the western Ag Belt could become a concern if it persists.

“All of the outlooks I mentioned out further to the west and to the Western Ag Belt were relatively dry,” Griffin says.

Still, he says there is at least some positive news in the seasonal outlook.

“I guess if there’s one silver lining… I don’t think we’re talking necessarily about extreme heat at this time,” he says.

One additional factor farmers will be watching closely is the possibility of a late spring frost in northern areas.

“I do think we need to watch May as far as late frost concerns,” Griffin says.

Regions such as the Northern Plains, Michigan and the Northeast may face the greatest risk.

“Those would be areas at risk for a late frost,” he says.

However, Griffin says the broader Corn Belt may largely avoid that issue this year.

“For much of the Ag Belt, to be honest, I just think this year we largely avoid that risk,” he says.

Bottom Line for Planting

For many growers, though, the biggest immediate concern is the wet start to the planting season.

With repeated storms expected across the eastern Corn Belt, Griffin says field conditions will likely remain too wet to support widespread early planting.

“Especially east of Iowa, it’s just not going to happen in my opinion,” Griffin says.

He says the persistent rainfall throughout March and April makes early fieldwork unlikely in many areas.

“It’s just too wet for March, too much rain in April,” Griffin says. “I just don’t think it’s going to happen.”

As La Niña Looks to Make One of Its Quickest Exits on Record, Strong El Niño Signals Are Now Brewing

Tue, 03 Mar 2026 01:39:06 GMT

A rapid shift in the Pacific Ocean could soon reshape weather patterns across U.S. farm country, and according to Eric Snodgrass, it’s unfolding faster than anything he’s witnessed in his career.

Speaking to U.S. Farm Report during Commodity Classic, the senior science fellow for Nutrien Ag Solutions said the current La Niña pattern is collapsing at remarkable speed.

“It’s happening fast, actually, very rapid,” Snodgrass says. “In fact, in my career, I don’t think I’ve ever seen a La Niña die as fast as this one.”

This year’s El Niño will very likely become a strong event.

Yet another series of strong westerly wind bursts over the central Pacific will trigger a new downwelling Kelvin wave that further suppresses the thermocline in the East Pacific a few months now. pic.twitter.com/mvfA6kcNHx
— Eric Webb (@webberweather) March 2, 2026

That quick exit is raising a much bigger question: How quickly does El Niño take hold, and how strong does it become? It’s the answers to those questions that could shape the moisture picture for crops and pasture this spring and summer.

But it’s something all meteorologists are watching as it’s likely this year’s El Niño coudl be a strong event.

Plains Dryness Still Front and Center

Current soil moisture across the U.S. shows areas of the Midwest and South are in desperate need of moisture.

(Eric Snodgrass )

Even as ocean temperatures shift, drought concerns remain very real across portions of the Plains.

“I’m very concerned about snowpacking the Rockies,” Snodgrass says. “I’m concerned about the snowpack on the river system that feeds into the Platte River system through Nebraska, which is very, very dry. And the whole Mississippi is still low right now.”

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows shows much every state except California, North Dakota and parts of the Ohio Valley region are seeing some level of drought entering into March.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

Portions of the U.S. have seen some moisture relief this winter, while other parts of the country are in desperate need of moisture heading into spring.

“So we’ve solved some major issues that need to be overcome,” he says. “But spring can do that. The question’s going to be, does it happen in time?”

Timing, he emphasizes, is everything. He points to last year as an example of how quickly conditions can turn around.

“Don’t forget, last year when we were at Commodity Classic, there were dust storms coming out of Texas. There was a dust storm through parts of Kansas,” Snodgrass says. “We were talking the same story, and by May, it was all erased. So I have to learn to be patient in spring. Just remember that spring can undo all of winter’s problems in a heartbeat, and that’s where we sit right now.”

Still, patience doesn’t mean ignoring the warning signs. He cautions to keep a close eye on drought pockets across the Plains.

If you look at the precipitation since November, it shows the locations that have seen the driest winter months.

(IEM)

Models Going “After Very Aggressive Rainfall”

As La Niña fades, ocean waters across the tropical Pacific are warming. That warming is already influencing long-range model projections.

“The issue here is how quickly do we get El Niño-like behavior, and what you’re going to notice is because all of the weather forecast models make the ocean temperatures very warm on both sides of North America, they’re all going after very aggressive rainfall,” says Snodgrass.

He described current precipitation outlooks as above normal precipitation for much of the country this summer.

“If you looked at a map right now of the forecast precip for the summer, it’s just like wet for everybody except for Arizona,” he says.

But Snodgrass warned that such widespread wet signals deserve scrutiny.

“That’s always concerning because anytime I see the model swing for the fences, I’m like, ‘OK, I’ve seen it lose before.’ I want to make sure that I really see how things shape up,” he says.

Forecasted precip in the middle of March shows signs if change for the Delta.

(Eric Snodgrass )

He does believe some areas are likely to see meaningful relief.

“I think they’re going to see quite a bit of rain,” he says, referring to areas from the Plains into the Delta and Mid-South. “I think we’re going to get some severe weather out of it.”

“I think we’re going to be wiping out drought throughout the Delta parts of the Southeast and maybe as far back as southern Texas,” he adds. “So it may be raining here very, very soon, with some nasty storms, too.”

The 14-day precip outlook shows areas from Texas through the East could see some heavy moisture.

(Eric Snodgrass)

AccuWeather: El Niño is Brewing

Forecasters at AccuWeather are also seeing signals that El Niño is forming.

“The trends support El Niño developing late this spring to early this summer,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Chat Merrill says in a recent outlook.

However, forecasters caution that this time of year presents forecasting challenges known as the “spring predictability barrier,” when long-range models are often less reliable.

“Typically, the stronger the signal, the more confidence on impacts for a typical El Niño season,” says AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls. “There are early signs in the Pacific Ocean that El Niño is starting to develop, but this change is slow, and there are still several months for it to fully develop.”

That slower, steady development described by AccuWeather stands alongside Snodgrass’ observation that La Niña itself is collapsing unusually fast, creating a transition period that farmers will need to monitor closely.

Bam Weather: Similar to 2023, Moderate by Summer

Bret Walts, meteorologist with BAM Weather , agrees this is one of the quicker La Niña exits in recent decades, though he sees parallels to a more recent season.

“It is one of the faster ones in the past 20-plus years, but very similar to 2023, a more recent year,” Walts says. “I see a lot of similarities to that year ahead.”

Walts expects El Niño conditions to be firmly in place by late May or early summer.

“We will be in El Niño by late May / early summer and nearing moderate territory by the end of summer,” he said. “I do think we can make a run at strong territory, but it would be more into fall.”

Even if the event peaks at moderate strength during the growing season, Walts says it would still influence temperature and moisture trends.

“A moderate El Niño would aid in less substantial heat as we head into summer,” he explains. “These years tend to actually run a bit cooler — so less GDUs — especially for the eastern belt.”

However, cooler doesn’t necessarily mean wetter everywhere.

“They can suppress moisture in the Upper Midwest, especially early in the season, and pose drier risks,” Walts says. “But they also favor timely rains as we head through mid- to late summer.”

Overall, he sees more upside than downside for crop production.

“While a few localized areas could get drier, it’s a setup that is favorable for many in terms of growing conditions,” Walts says.

Could This Be a Strong El Niño Like 2015?

Snodgrass says ocean temperature projections suggest the event could strengthen significantly.

“I think right now we’re looking at ocean temperatures that could be more than a degree and a half above average, and if you look historically, the last time we saw this would have been 2015, and that was a big one,” says Snodgrass.

The last event of that magnitude was the powerful El Niño, which significantly altered global weather patterns.
But Snodgrass cautioned against assuming a repeat.

“2023 was the most recent El Niño event, but the timing was way different,” he says. “So I don’t know that we can draw a direct correlation. I don’t know if there’s a good precedent for like, ‘Oh, go look at this year.’ And so as a result, we’re all going to be just watching it carefully to see how it transitions.”

What Farmers Should Watch

For producers, the message is to stay vigilant, according to Snodgrass. He says to

Watch the drought pockets in the Plains.
Watch the snowpack and river systems.
Watch how quickly El Niño-like behavior begins influencing storm tracks.

Because if Snodgrass is right, and this is indeed the fastest La Niña exit of his career, then 2026 may hinge on how quickly the Pacific Ocean rewrites the script for moisture this spring and summer.

When Weird Corn Ears Wreck the Bottom Line

Mon, 02 Mar 2026 15:20:06 GMT

Abnormal corn ears may look like a cosmetic problem, but depending on the severity, they can deliver a significant hit to yield, reports Osler Ortez, Ohio State University corn specialist.

“If a field is managed for 200-bushel corn but only delivers 100 bushels because abnormal ears dominate, then every pound of nitrogen, every inch of irrigation and every pass you make across that field becomes much harder to justify,” he says.

Yield losses from abnormal corn ears can range from 35% to 91% in affected plants, with typical field-wide impacts often trailing lower, Ortez reports.

For reference, an “average” corn ear generally produces 16 kernel rows with about 800 kernels per ear, according to the Iowa State Extension.

Irregularities such as zipper ears (shown below), earless plants or multiple ears, reduce grain yield through poor kernel set, abortion or reduced kernel weight.

A common abnormality called zipper ear is caused by kernel abortion or failed pollination. The issue is often triggered by severe environmental stress during early grain fill or pollination from factors including drought, high heat or nutrient deficiency.

(R. L. Nielsen, professor emeritus and Purdue University Corn Specialist, retired)

Ortez emphasizes no single factor explains abnormal ear development. It’s nearly always the result of an interaction between three factors that corn researchers refer to as GEM:
G — Genetics (hybrid)

E — Environment (weather, stress)

M — Management (practices)

He adds that understanding when the stress is happening, the timing of it, is also important. For instance, early-season stress can limit ear initiation and potential ear number, while midseason issues impact pollination and kernel set. Late-season stress reduces kernel fill and overall weight.

Strategic Management Levers

While the weather can’t be controlled, Ortez says understanding the GEM interaction gives corn growers more leverage than they realize.

He lists three management decisions that can help growers mitigate the risk of abnormal ear development:

1. Evaluate the genetics: Treating hybrid selection as a defensive tool against ear problems — right alongside disease tolerance and standability — is one of the clearest ways to lower risk.

2. Pick a recommended seeding rate: In Nebraska field trials, Ortez observed abnormal ears increased at both ends of the seeding rate spectrum.

“Chasing a few extra bushels with aggressive populations, especially on drought-prone or otherwise stressed acres, often backfired when stress hit at the wrong time,” he notes. Conversely, pulling populations too low also created conditions where ear development went off track.

3. Consider the planting date: Researchers found planting hybrids outside the optimal window — either very early into cold, wet conditions or very late into heat and moisture stress — made it more likely sensitive growth stages would line up with damaging stress. Matching planting date to local recommendations and the strengths of a given hybrid proved to be an important way to reduce those risky overlaps.

Ultimately, by tuning into GEM, farmers can better safeguard their investments. As Ortez points out, the more sides of that triangle a farmer can stabilize or improve, the less likely a season’s worth of hard work and inputs will be undone by a field of problem ears.

Hear Ortez share more of his research on abnormal ear development in a recent podcast sponsored by the Crop Protection Network.

Timing of La Niña Exit, El Niño Entrance is Unclear, Raising Questions About Dryness for Spring and Summer

Wed, 21 Jan 2026 14:32:21 GMT

Farmers across the U.S. are watching the Pacific closely this year as NOAA predicts La Niña could exit faster than expected, potentially giving way to an El Niño later in 2026. While this transition could bring shifts in rainfall patterns, experts caution the change will likely be gradual, meaning parts of the country could remain dry well into spring.

NOAA is now forecasting La Niña to exit by spring and El Niño to possibly enter the picture this year, but not all meteorologists agree on the timing of that. Drew Lerner, agricultural meteorologist and founder of World Weather , says the key is when this transition takes place, and when warming ocean temperatures occur, as to how it could change weather conditions for not just planting but also the growing season ahead.

Two Weather Patterns Driving Dryness

What’s scary for farmers today is just how dry it is across parts of the West, Southwest, Southeast and Midwest. Similar to last winter, a dry fall was only exasperated by a fairly dry winter, with drought a growing threat heading into spring.

The map that shows percent of normal precipitation shows the areas of the country desperately in need of more moisture heading into spring for both crops and pasture conditions.

(World Weather )

Farmers have a reason to be concerned. According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor drought and dry conditions remain widespread across the country:

About 35.7% of the U.S. (including Puerto Rico) is in drought (D1–D4)
More than 42.5% of the Lower 48 is also in drought conditions
Moderate to severe drought levels have worsened in parts of south-central Texas into Arkansas/Missouri and from Florida to Virginia over the past week

Meanwhile, California, long a drought focal point, has recently been reported as drought-free for the first time in about 25 years after significant winter storms.

Over the next five to seven days, much of the western half of the U.S. is anticipated to be dry from the West into the Plains. The wettest areas are anticipated to be over the Great Lakes region and into the Northeast.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

What’s driving the dryness across the rest of the country? Lerner says it’s two-fold.

“We’ve actually got two major patterns at work right now,” Lerner says. “One is La Niña, which is definitely influencing the drier tendencies across the central U.S., and the other is an upper wind flow pattern tied to the lunar cycle. Together, they’re keeping cold surges coming into eastern North America and limiting rainfall across much of the Plains.”

Subsoil moisture maps also paint the picture of how dry it is across portions of the U.S.

(World Weather )

Current soil moisture charts also show large swaths of dryness in the west-central and southwestern Plains, amplifying concerns heading into spring.

“These areas aren’t likely to get another good drink of water anytime soon; we had a little break last week, but it’s temporary,” Lerner says. “Even though the Midwest doesn’t look too bad for this time of year, much of Missouri, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana and northwestern Ohio should already have saturated soil. Still, we’re in a droughty environment.”

The Big Debate: How Quickly Will La Niña Exit?

According to NOAA models, Lerner explains, La Niña is in place but expected to exit rapidly, with a possible shift to El Niño by May.

“You can see the ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are still cooler than normal,” Lerner says “To qualify for La Niña, you need roughly half a degree Celsius below normal, and that’s exactly what we have right now.”

World Weather’s Drew Lerner says if history is any indication, NOAA’s forecast model for ocean warming temperatures may be too aggressive.

(World Weather )

However, he warns that the NOAA model predicting a quick exit has historically been overly aggressive, and last year was a perfect example of that.

“If you look back at the last two years, the model forecast La Niña would develop by May or June, but it didn’t actually arrive until the fourth quarter,” Lerner says. “I think the model is too warm for a rapid exit this year as well. My expectation is that El Niño won’t really show up until the latter part of the third quarter or into the fourth quarter.”

Earlier this month, NOAA issued its latest La Niña forecast, saying La Niña is likely to persist for now, but that’s followed by a 75% chance of a transition to ENSO neutral during January to March. ENSO Neutral, according to NOAA, is likely to develop in at least the northern hemisphere through late spring 2026.

“Here’s what I take away from this, and I’ve been chatting about this and other meteorologists have been chatting about this for a while,” says Brian Bledsoe of Brian Bledsoe Weather . “I have great respect for NOAA and the National Weather Service, but to be honest with you, I think they’re a little late to the party with how this transition is going to unfold because what’s going on in the Pacific Ocean right now is a pretty significant transition away from the La Niña. So I think we have seen this event peak, and I think it is going to exit more quickly than maybe what NOAA’s forecast is currently suggesting.”

Bledsoe says not only does he think NOAA is late to the party in forecasting La Niña’s departure, but he also thinks the U.S. will see a transition to El Niño faster than what NOAA currently shows.

“Initially what that can do, and what that can mean, is that transition period, it can still have some dryness produce across the Plains and across the Corn Belt, at least early on in that transition,” Bledsoe says. “History suggests that after that early transition is gone, that a lot of us will have wetter than average conditions try to show up during the heart of the growing season.”

Bledsoe says that is several months away and difficult to forecast, but he says there are different models that indicate this scenario and a quick transition can also bring wild weather.

Brett Walz Sees a Neutral Spring, Possible El Niño Summer

Brett Walz, meteorologist with Bam WX , also thinks we could be saying good-bye to La Niña in the next couple of weeks.

“I’m starting to see the shifts and getting away from La Niña probably in the next couple of weeks,” he tells “AgriTalk’s” Chip Flory. “We’ll warm the waters up and get into what we call ENSO Neutral as we work into spring. I really think that by summer we can get into an El Niño.”

Walz also notes ENSO-neutral springs often bring a mix of dry and volatile conditions.

“The back half of the season tends to see some dryness, especially in the Upper Midwest,” he says. “May 2023 was a very dry month leading into planting and the start of the growing season, and I see some similarities here. Before that, March and early April could be a little volatile, with some ups and downs and even early-season severe weather.”

Implications for Spring Planting

For U.S. farmers, the combination of lingering La Niña effects and a transitional ENSO-neutral spring could mean dryness persists in critical growing regions through spring.

“Parts of the central U.S., especially the western Corn Belt and hard red winter wheat areas, are going to see below-normal precipitation during spring,” Lerner says. “The Delta and lower Midwest may do a little better, but overall, we’re looking at a spring that won’t dramatically relieve the dryness farmers have been dealing with.”

He points out analogs from past ENSO years support this outlook, but then the forecast flips to more moisture in summer for more northern states, with dryness parked in the South.

“Three of the four years I’ve analyzed moved from La Niña into neutral conditions through early summer, then transitioned to a weak El Niño later,” Lerner says. “We generally see a wetter bias in the northern Plains and parts of the Midwest in summer, while the Southeast may fall back into drier conditions after a brief spring break.”

“If we were to suddenly shift into El Niño, we’d see more rainfall in the Plains and western Corn Belt during spring,” he adds. “But given the history of these forecast models, it’s unlikely we’ll see a dramatic shift until later this year.”

___________________________________________________________________________________________________
Summer Outlook: A Mixed Picture

Looking ahead, both Lerner and Walz see the potential for wetter conditions later in the growing season:

Northern Plains and parts of the Midwest could see above-average precipitation in summer
Southeastern U.S. could experience drier conditions after a brief spring respite
The western Corn Belt and hard red winter wheat regions will likely remain dry through spring

___________________________________________________________________________________________________

Impacts on South America’s Weather

Walz says these ENSO shifts have global implications, particularly for South America.

“There’s a lag in how La Niña affects South America, because their growing season is opposite ours,” he says. “Currently, we’re still seeing dryness across Argentina and Southeast Brazil, but as La Niña weakens, we may start getting rains back into Brazil, especially by the back half of February.”

But up until this point, Lerner says La Niña isn’t having much of an impact on South America’s weather, which he says is a byproduct of the very weak status of the current La Niña event.

“And if you look at the soil assessment there in Brazil and Argentina, you can see the moisture profile is really not too bad,” Lerner says. “Now we are starting to dry out portions of Buenos Aires and some of the neighboring areas there in Entre Rios and southern Santa Fe, even southern Cordova, and we do to see some significant moisture in these areas.”

Subsoil moisture maps in South America show a couple areas of dryness, but Brazil looks to have adequate moisture for now.

(World Weather )

He points out just last week some of the computer forecast models were trying to generate a La Niña-like ridge of high pressure over Argentina through these next 10 days.

“And if that happens, we will continue to dry down Argentina, but more so in the east rather than the south, and it will go ahead and spread a little bit into southern Brazil,” Lerner says. “But, as far as La Niña events is concerned, this one has not brought much dryness to South America, and most of the South America crops, up until now, have been doing very well.”

He says if La Niña does dissipate in February, then it’s going to probably start raining again in these drier biased areas.

“I think that this short-term bout of ridge development and drier bias conditions in Argentina, Brazil, will not likely last long enough to have a big impact on the bottom line,” he adds.

What U.S. Farmers Need to Know Going Forward

Spring 2026 could bring a mix of dryness, volatility and early-season severe weather in key U.S. crop areas. Irrigation management and soil moisture monitoring will be critical. Farmers should also keep an eye on South American conditions, which influence global markets, especially for soybeans and corn.

“Farmers shouldn’t rely on a sudden shift to El Niño to solve moisture deficits,” Lerner emphasizes. “Prepare for continued dry spells in spring, and be ready to take advantage of wetter periods later in the year if they arrive.”

Walz adds: “This spring will be ENSO-neutral, a transitional period, but summer could bring a true El Niño — something that isn’t common but could have significant implications for rainfall patterns and planting decisions.”

2026 Weather Outlook: La Niña’s Quick Exit, El Niño’s Potential and the Signals Farmers Should Watch

Thu, 08 Jan 2026 14:37:04 GMT

After a year that challenged nearly every long-range forecast, weather uncertainty remains a dominant theme heading into 2026. Shifting climate signals with La Niña looking to make a quick exit, evolving ocean temperatures and global production concerns are once again forcing producers and markets to stay flexible.

Eric Snodgrass, senior science fellow and atmospheric scientist with Nutrien Ag Solutions, says the lessons of 2025 serve as a reminder even confident outlooks can unravel quickly, and that adaptability is critical as weather patterns reset. But overall, he thinks 2026 could bring favorable weather, especially for crop production.

2025: A Year Forecasts Missed

Coming into 2025, a growing body of forecasts pointed toward drought risk across the western and central Corn Belt. Those concerns were based on long-term dryness signals that had appeared consistently for nearly a decade. But as spring unfolded, the atmosphere took a sharp turn.

“2025 didn’t shape up like any forecast thought it would,” Snodgrass says. “Instead of the widespread drought everyone was worried about, we ended up with flooding, excess moisture and major disease pressure.”

Heavy rains in April and May triggered widespread flooding across the Mid-South, Delta and southern Plains, replenishing soil moisture and wiping out early drought fears. While summer brought hot overnight temperatures, frequent storms in June, July and early August kept crops supplied with moisture — but created ideal conditions for disease.

“If you were in the Corn Belt, you were fighting southern rust and tar spot,” Snodgrass says. “If you hit twice with fungicide, yields were there. If not, disease pressure took a real toll.”

Warm overnight temperatures combined with frequent rainfall created ideal conditions for crop disease across much of the Corn Belt. Southern rust and tar spot became widespread issues, reinforcing how excess moisture can be just as damaging as dryness when timing and intensity aren’t favorable.

Despite those challenges, U.S. production came in strong overall, shifting attention to the global balance sheet and, in particular, South America.

South America Avoids Major Stress... For Now

With the U.S. crop largely established, concerns turned south as traders and analysts monitored planting progress and moisture conditions in Brazil and Argentina. Early delays raised questions, but recent rainfall across key growing regions helped stabilize crop conditions.

He says vegetation health indicators, including NDVI data, show little evidence of widespread stress heading into early 2026. While La Niña is typically associated with dryness risk in parts of South America, its influence so far has been muted — and that has kept weather-driven market anxiety in check.

The bigger question now isn’t how La Niña has behaved so far, but how long it will remain in place.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issued a report earlier this month that says La Niña is present and is “favored to continue for the next month or two.”

CPC says it’s important to note:

El Niño: characterized by a positive ONI (the rolling three-month average temperature anomaly) greater than or equal to +0.5ºC.
La Niña: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC.

To be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, CPC says it’s those thresholds that must be exceeded for a period of at least five consecutive overlapping three-month seasons.

The Growing Likelihood of El Niño in 2026

The move to possible ENSO neutral conditions.

(CPC )

Snodgrass says as La Niña is in place to start 2026, it’s a pattern that typically brings cooler, wetter conditions to the northern U.S. and warmer, drier weather to the South. However, he adds the event may not last.

“I was wrong earlier when I thought 2026 might mirror 2025,” he admits. “That dialogue is gone.”

Most major forecasting centers, particularly European models, suggest La Niña could exit quickly in January or February. By spring, there’s roughly a 50% chance El Niño conditions could emerge — a major departure from last year’s pattern.

“That fast exit changes everything,” Snodgrass says.

CPC agrees. In a statement released Thursday, January 8 , CPC says there are now growing chances of an El Niño this year.

“La Niña may still have some lingering influence through the early Northern Hemisphere spring 2026. For longer forecast horizons, there are growing chances of El Niño, though there remains uncertainty given the lower accuracy of model forecasts through the spring,” says the CPC. “In summary, La Niña persists, followed by a 75% chance of a transition to ENSO-neutral during January-March 2026. ENSO-neutral is likely through at least Northern Hemisphere late spring 2026.”

The IRI multi-model predictions indicate ENSO-neutral will emerge during January-March (JFM) 2026.

(CPC )

What a Faster Transition Could Mean for Spring

If La Niña fades quickly, spring could offer more favorable planting opportunities across key production regions. Drier periods and fewer prolonged storm systems would be favorable for spring planting.

“Two of the analogs I’m watching closely are 2009 and 2018,” Snodgrass says. “Those were pretty good crop years across much of the Midwest.”

Still, Snodgrass cautions confidence will increase only as March and April weather patterns become clearer. Until then, flexibility remains essential. He says at this stage, however, the pattern looks supportive rather than threatening.

“Right now, I like what I see,” Snodgrass says.

The Most Important Signals to Watch in 2026

While ocean temperatures remain important, particularly in the Gulf of Alaska, Snodgrass says one indicator stands above the rest as spring approaches.

“Watch where the severe weather sets up,” he says.

If spring storms focus across the Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio River valleys, including the Delta and surrounding states, then Snodgrass explains that typically reduces the risk of summer drought. But if severe weather stays concentrated farther west, like in western Kansas, Colorado or western Nebraska, that’s when concerns begin to rise.

“If the storm chasers are far away from the Mississippi River, my ears perk up,” Snodgrass says. “If they’re chasing storms all through that valley, I feel much better about moisture and drought risk.”

Global Weather Still Shapes the Market

Even with improving signals at home, global production remains a major market driver. As U.S. farmers prepare for planting, attention will also remain on South America’s safrinha corn crop.

“Does that crop go in on time? Does it have moisture stress late?” he asks. “Those questions still matter, and they can tug on markets while we’re focused on planting here.”

Late-season moisture stress or planting delays there could tighten global supplies and inject volatility into prices. That makes spring a uniquely complex period, one where weather developments across multiple continents can influence market direction simultaneously.

What Farmers Need to Keep in Mind

After a year defined by surprises, 2026 is shaping up with a different set of risks — and opportunities. A faster La Niña exit, improving spring conditions and historically favorable analogs provide cautious optimism, but weather remains an ever-moving target.

“These are early signals, not guarantees,” he says. “But knowing what to watch, and when, makes all the difference.”

For producers and markets alike, the key will be watching the right signals at the right time.

La Niña Versus El Niño: Why the Difference Matters

La Niña and El Niño are opposite phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and each carries distinct implications for U.S. and global agriculture.

La Niña Typically Brings:

Cooler, wetter conditions across the northern U.S.
Warmer, drier weather across the southern Plains and Southeast
Increased drought risk in the Delta and parts of South America
Greater risk of spring temperature extremes and uneven rainfall

El Niño Typically Brings:

Wetter conditions across the southern U.S.
Milder winter temperatures in much of the Midwest
Reduced drought risk in key U.S. production regions
Higher rainfall potential in South America during critical growth stages

A fast shift from La Niña to El Niño can dramatically alter planting windows, early-season moisture availability and disease risk. For markets, these transitions often drive volatility as traders reassess yield potential and global supply outlooks.

Understanding when the transition occurs can be just as important as which phase dominates.

Iowa Farmer Battles Today's Pests While Eyeing Tomorrow's 'Mean Sixteen' Threats

Fri, 12 Dec 2025 18:55:16 GMT

For Worth County, Iowa, farmer Sarah Tweeten, the list of high-priority agronomic threats isn’t a political abstract — it’s a harsh reality she deals with every season.

Farming with her parents, Brian and Julie, and her uncle Roger, Tweeten has been steering the partnership toward more resilient cropping practices since joining the operation in 2021. This includes shifting from conventional tillage to strip tillage and splitting nitrogen applications.

The changes are part of a broader mindset: Protecting yields today from weeds, disease and insects while aggressively preparing for the next generation of agronomic threats. This forward-thinking approach is what led Tweeten to Washington, D.C., earlier this week as a Farm Journal Foundation farmer ambassador to help introduce a new report: “ The Mean Sixteen: Major Biosecurity Threats Facing U.S. Agriculture and How Policy Solutions Can Help. ”

Today’s Battles and Tomorrow’s Warnings
Researched and developed by Stephanie Mercier, PhD, the report takes an in-depth look at 16 significant pest issues U.S. farmers face now or could realistically in the future.

Tweeten is already battling a couple of the problems that underpin the urgency behind the research. For example, Palmer amaranth (pigweed) is gaining ground in her fields and across Iowa. The pervasive broadleaf weed can drastically reduce yields, with studies showing corn yield reductions between 11% and 91% and soybean yield reductions of 17% to 68%.

“We’ve struggled with pigweed as it continues to establish more resistance to our herbicides in our toolkit,” Tweeten says.

Two additional agronomic issues the report details include:

1. Asian Soybean Rust. First detected in the U.S. in Louisiana in 2004, this fungal disease has spread to southern states like Georgia and Mississippi. Scientists warn that warming winters could enable its migration to the Midwest, adding to existing disease pressures.

2. Corn Ear Rot. It can lead to aflatoxin production, making corn unmarketable and posing risks to humans and livestock. Aflatoxin is an issue Pickens County, Ala., farmer Annie Dee says is an ongoing problem for corn growers in her area.

“If we have aflatoxin, it can be impossible to sell the corn,” says Dee, also a Farm Journal Foundation Farmer ambassador.

A more recent threat she references is the impact of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (bird flu) on local poultry farms.

Since January 2022, HPAI has been confirmed in a commercial or backyard poultry flock in all 50 states.

(USDA)

“An important market for us is poultry feed meal, so that’s a constant worry. The trickle-down effect is if we can’t move our corn then we can’t meet our financial obligations,” Dee adds.

Despite agricultural R&D offering a high ROI — $20 in benefits for every $1 spent — the Farm Journal Foundation report notes public funding for ag research has been declining over the past two decades.

“Farmers urgently need sustained support for aflatoxin research and prevention because these risks threaten our yields, our markets and the trust consumers place in American agriculture,” Dee says.

U.S. public spending on ag research and development has been falling for two decades.

(USDA-ERS)

African Swine Fever Has ‘Devastating Potential’
Looking to the future, Tweeten says she is concerned about African swine fever (ASF) and its potential to impact crop farmers as well as hog producers. The highly contagious swine disease hasn’t been detected in the U.S. mainland, but it isn’t far away. ASF has been confirmed in the Caribbean countries of Haiti and the Dominican Republic, roughly 700 miles from Miami, Fla.

“Being a farmer from Iowa, where we have probably eight times the amount of pigs as we do people, an outbreak of ASF would be just devastating to our state,” Tweeten says.

Hogs are among the biggest customers for the corn and soybeans Tweeten and her family grow. If African swine fever were to shut down hog production or exports, it wouldn’t just be a blow to livestock producers – it would hurt the entire agricultural community, she contends.

Read about 5 livestock diseases that could impact U.S. food security and economic stability.

Food Security Is National Security
When it comes to justifying funding for ag research, Tweeten knows there’s competition for every federal dollar. But she believes agriculture deserves a front-row seat — not only because of its economic weight and impact on farmers, but because of its role in national security.

“There’s that argument that food security is national security,” she says. “If there’s one thing COVID made us aware of, it’s that a disruption to our food chain can be terrifying, quite frankly.”

The pandemic made consumers and policymakers more aware of supply chain vulnerability. In 2020, the shock to the supply chain came from a human disease and logistical bottlenecks.

(Sarah Williams Photography)

Next time, Tweeten says, the disruption could just as easily come from animal or plant disease — whether African swine fever in hogs, Asian soybean rust or some other pathogen in crops. She worries about scenarios where farmers could face a fast-moving disease or crop pest while critical tools are still hung up in regulatory delays.

Her message: Farmers need a full toolbox, not one that’s half-built by the time a threat arrives.

“Ag needs to be in a good position when these sorts of emerging diseases and pests come into the country,” she says, “to have the tools in our toolbox ready for farmers to pull out.”

About the Farm Journal Foundation
The Farm Journal Foundation is a farmer-centered, non-profit, nonpartisan organization established in 2010. It works to advance agricultural innovation, food and nutrition security, conservation, and rural economic development.

USDA Launches New Round of Disaster Aid: What Producers Need to Know to Sign Up

Fri, 21 Nov 2025 17:35:13 GMT

USDA is launching the next phase of its Supplemental Disaster Relief Program (SDRP) , aimed at farmers who suffered losses from natural disasters in 2023 and 2024 . This new round — Stage 2 — was unveiled on Monday and is expected to be significantly more complex than earlier programs and will likely include a surge in enrollment from specialty crop growers.

Under Secretary for Farm Production and Conservation Richard Fordyce says this latest stage fills major gaps for producers who either lacked crop insurance altogether or whose losses didn’t quite trigger an indemnity payment. He also says this round of disaster aid is complex, and there are a few things producers can do in advance to make the sign-up process a little easier.

Stage 2 Designed for “Shallow Losses” and Quality Loss

Fordyce explains the scope of eligible disasters is much wider than many producers realize.

He says the qualifying events including everything from drought and wildfires to a derecho. He adds that the program is specifically geared toward losses that fell through the cracks of traditional programs.

“This supplemental disaster relief program is going to assist producers that either did not have crop insurance or their crop insurance didn’t trigger an indemnity, but it was close,” he says. “We call those shallow losses. And there’s also a quality loss component we haven’t really been able to address in previous programs.”

Fordyce says with this stage being more complex, there are two things he wants producers to know:

“I think I think number one, if you are in an area that had a weather disaster in 2023 and 2024, if you’re a producer, you think back, did I have a severe weather event, right? Hurricane, wildfire, derecho, freeze, drought, whatever, and it impacted my crop, then you’re probably eligible,” says Fordyce. “So just think back to 23 and 24. And then, contact that local FSA county office, go to the website. There’s resources on that website as well, and then just be thinking about documentation that could prove that loss. And I mean, I think depending on the crop, depending on the geography, you know, that documentation’s gonna be different.”

Specialty Crops Expected to Be a Major Share of Applicants

What crops will be covered? Fordyce emphasizes many specialty crop operations will find Stage 2 particularly valuable.

“What we think will be crops that will probably have a higher subscription rate through this program are gonna be specialty crops. So it’ll be again what you think of as conventional specialty crops, you know, grapes, so it’s trees, vines, bushes would be you know, probably more more of those crops that would be included,” he says.

He notes that Stage 1 was largely focused on crops with well-established crop insurance data streams, such as major row crops.

“This one’s going to be harder, more complicated, because the data isn’t as uniform and the crop mix is so diverse,” he says.

Producers MUST Enroll in Person, Fordyce Urges Them to Prepare Now

One of the biggest changes in Stage 2 is how growers must apply. Unlike Stage 1, USDA is not mailing pre-filled applications. Producers must go to their FSA county office and work through the application with staff.

Fordyce says with this round being more complicated, preparation is key, but USDA has created a clear and concise checklist to help .

“We’re asking folks to call the local county office to set up an appointment,” he says. “We want to use the producer’s time in the best way we can. This is not something where you just walk in and hope to get it done quickly. There are documents we need, and the more a producer gets ahead of that, the smoother the process will be.”

USDA has published a detailed checklist at FSA.usda.gov/SDRP , and Fordyce encourages producers not to wait.

“It’s a list of documents you really should start getting your hands on, and if you don’t have documentation for something, the checklist also lays out acceptable ways you can substantiate the loss,” he says. “Depending on the crop and the geography, what counts as documentation is going to be different. That’s why we want folks to look at it now, not when they’re sitting in the county office.”

He stresses early preparation will matter because demand will be high.

“This one’s more complicated than Stage 1, no question, and it’s going to take more work from producers and from our county offices,” he says.

Billions Already Distributed And Billions More to Come

SDRP Stage 2 is part of the $30 billion disaster and economic assistance package Congress authorized.

Fordyce explains: “SDRP Stage 2 is part of the $30 billion Congress appropriated back in December. The first $10 billion was the economic aid program, then $6 billion for SDRP Stage 1. When we wrap up SDRP Stage 2, we will have administered all $30 billion in disaster and economic relief.”

What Farmers Need to Know

1. You must enroll in person at your FSA county office.

No prefilled applications will be mailed.
Call ahead to schedule an appointment.
Expect longer processing due to program complexity.

2. Stage 2 covers 2023 through 2024 weather-related losses.

Includes “too hot, too cold, too wet, too dry, too windy” and other major events.
Eligibility includes shallow losses and quality losses.

3. Specialty crops likely benefit most.

Trees, vines, bushes, grapes and other specialty crops are expected to represent the majority of applicants.

4. Prepare documents in advance.

Use the SDRP checklist at FSA.usda.gov/SDRP .
Documentation varies by crop and region.

Market Loss Payments Still Being Debated, Prices at Harvest Are a Concern

Producers are still asking about potential market loss payments tied to tariff impacts and trade disruptions. While some hope an announcement will come before year-end, Fordyce cautions nothing is final.

“We’re having conversations almost daily with the Secretary’s office, the chief economist’s office, the White House,” he says. “When and if we do something, we want it to be well informed through the data we have. We want it to reflect where we are today, but also, it has to reflect where we were because many producers sold crops at harvest when prices were low. We know that.”

He stresses any decision must accurately reflect the full picture.

“There’s nothing decided yet, no imminent announcement I’m aware of, but the points producers are raising are the same ones we’re discussing internally,” Fordyce says.

Cotton Farmers and Other Struggling Commodities Are Part of the Conversation

Fordyce says USDA is closely tracking severe distress in cotton country.

“There are multiple commodities that are part of the conversation,” he says. “China is the big name because of soybean and sorghum exports, but there are other factors affecting other commodities too. When we make a decision, it’s going to be informed, it’s going to be representative of where we are, and it’s going to rely on the data we have access to.”

Borrower Limits Remain a Roadblock

As lenders warn of widespread stress, many producers want USDA to raise loan limits for beginning farmers and other borrowers. Fordyce says USDA cannot make that change without congressional action.

“Loan limits are statutory,” he explains. “We had a significant increase in 2018, but prices, land values and equipment costs have all shifted since then. We have champions in Congress who understand the inadequacies of our loan limits, and they want to increase them. We’ll see where that goes.”

USDA Leadership Knows the Stakes

Fordyce says USDA leaders understand, personally, the financial strain farmers face.

“My first operating loan was in 1983 at about 18% interest,” he says. “And I still wanted to farm. There are people up and down the hallways of USDA leadership who have farmed, who are farming or who have direct ties to a farm. There’s absolutely a 100% understanding of what’s happening both broadly and commodity by commodity, region by region.”

AgriTalk’s Chip Flory also talked to Farm CPA Paul Nieffer about the latest round of disaster aid. You can listen to that conversation as he outlines what farmers need to know.

Drought Conditions Require Careful Attention To Fall Tillage Practices

Fri, 07 Nov 2025 17:57:39 GMT

With harvest now in the rearview mirror in many areas, farmers are focusing their attention on fall tillage. The soil type you’re working in and where you farm are making a big difference on how fall tillage is going, according to Ken Ferrie, Farm Journal Field Agronomist.

Some fields in Illinois and surrounding states that had excessive rainfall last spring have ruts and compaction to address but are currently in the midst of D2 and D3 drought levels. With that challenge in mind, Here’s a look at some tillage options by system:

Strip-Till: In lighter soils – particularly light silt loams – Ferrie says farmers are creating good strip-till berms, with few to no chunks or clods that will have to be addressed next spring.

“These will mellow out and create a pretty decent seedbed next spring. Even though the soil is hard and dried out, the lighter soils are stripping nice,” he reports.

That’s not the case where farmers are working heavier ground with clay to clay-loam soils. Strip tilling in these soils is creating a rougher environment that Ferrie is afraid will lead to some tough seedbeds next spring.

“If you’re running a strip freshener next spring, much of this problem can be corrected, but only if you’re running that freshener before these large clods become dried clods in the spring,” he says. “Clods that get smashed into the furrow by the planter next spring will create some germination issues.”

If you use a strip freshener, one avenue Ferrie says you might consider is to bypass the fall strips and just freshen them in the spring to achieve a good seedbed. But if conditions continue to be dry going into next spring, he would advise farmers to conserve available moisture and just no-till the field.

Conventional-till: To eliminate ruts in conventional-till, use a chisel plow or disk ripper on cornstalks, then follow with a leveling pass next spring. Run a chisel plow at a slight angle across the wheel tracks to break up soil compaction.

In bean stubble with 4" ruts, use a soil finisher and level in the spring. If ruts are 6" to 8", use a chisel plow to fill them in first. If possible, spot chisel to fix only the areas in the field with ruts. Follow with a soil finisher pass next spring. Use aerial imagery from the growing season to help determine whether you can patch the field or if it all needs to be worked.

Vertical-till: In a corn-to-soybean rotation with ruts or severe pinch rows, use a chisel plow in the cornstalks followed by a vertical-till leveling pass next spring. When using a chisel plow, make sure you achieve full width shatter from shank to shank for optimum results, Ferrie says.

In a soybean-to-corn rotation, use an in-line ripper in bean stubble when dealing with pinch rows and 4" ruts. Run the in-line ripper at an angle to make sure you cross the ruts or pinch rows. If you run with the rows, it might not bust wheel tracks apart; it will only pick them up and set them back down. In these scenarios, it will likely take two passes with a vertical-till leveling tool next spring to eliminate the tracks.

In 6" to 8" ruts, don’t use an in-line ripper. Instead, Ferrie suggests using a chisel plow. If ruts are spotty, chisel them in first and then in-line rip the entire field, leaving a large portion of the field covered in residue. If deep ruts appear across the entire field, run the chisel plow across it all.

Be sure to respect land contour to eliminate erosion.

Deep ruts usually aren’t an issue in strip-till and no-till fields because the soil is more firm. However, take action to fix tracks and 2" to 4" ruts, as the benefits far outweigh the risks.

No-till: Ruts usually aren’t too big of an issue in no-till fields because the soil is firm. However, don’t let a 4" rut or pinch rows fool you. Both can be hard on ear counts the following year.

If you’re dealing with wheel tracks in a no-till soybean scenario, there’s a good chance freezing and thawing paired with a vertical-harrow tool will do the trick. If fixed, you can return to no-till the following year.

With 4" to 6" ruts in cornstalks followed by soybeans, plan to shallow chisel the field to achieve full width shatter and then level with a vertical harrow. Once fixed, the field can return to no-till the following year.

In soybean stubble with ruts in small portions of the field, patch it with tillage and continue to no-till the rest of the field. If pinch rows or ruts are present across the entire field, use vertical tillage to address the problem and then return to no-till in future years.

“Ultimately, in order to avoid long-term yield effects, fields might have to come out of no-till or strip-till to fix ruts and compaction issues,” Ferrie says. “Ruts often show up in aerial imagery for two to three years. As soon as the problems are fixed, the field can return to no-till or strip-till.”

Anhydrous Ammonia Considerations In Dry Soils
Without some rainfall in areas suffering from drought, Ferrie is concerned anhydrous ammonia (NH3) applications will be challenging to seal. In some cases, when growers are smelling ammonia a day after application, that means the product is making its way to the soil surface and being lost.

Ferrie says you should be able to stand out in the field as NH3 is applied and not see it or smell it. That was not the case this past week in some central Illinois fields.

“I saw one field that had cracks big enough that you could put your hand down in them. The anhydrous bar was not only smoking around the knives, gas was coming out through the cracks in the soil between the knives,” Ferrie reports.

Anhydrous ammonia will move in soils until it finds enough soil moisture to convert from ammonia to ammonium. In dry soils, an inhibitor will be ineffective because it is designed to stop nitrification and not volatility.

“That’s why growers wonder why they can smell ammonia leaking out of a dry soil when they use N-Serve. It doesn’t work like that. You’re not protected against volatility,” Ferrie explains.

Instead, N-Serve acts to slow down the bacteria that converts ammonium to nitrate, keeping nitrogen in the ammonium form longer.

European Corn Borer Populations Rebuild
Ferrie says he had a number of farmers call in this fall regarding certain hybrids that were dropping ears. Most of the fields contained non-GMO hybrids, and in many cases the problem was caused by European corn borer and the hybrid was not at fault.

Ferrie advises farmers to inspect ears from the fields in question, if still available, for telltale signs of the pest. “Look at that butt of the ear in the shank,” he says. “Corn borer will leave a tunnel in the shank, or through the center of the cob, coming out the butt of the ear into the shank.”

Ferrie says he is seeing populations of the pest starting to rebuild in areas where non-GMO corn has been grown multiple years.

“Corn borers have been gone so long, most growers have forgotten about them, or they’re too young to have farmed when corn borer was a threat,” he explains. “Inspecting some ears now will give you insights on what you’re dealing with and a leg up on what you need to plan for next season.”

Learn more of Ken Ferrie’s recommendations on how to address tillage, NH3 and pest control in his latest episode of Boots In The Field:

Your next read: Unpacking the Disappointment: 5 Reasons Some Iowa Growers Had Ho-Hum Corn Yields

Arctic Blast to Bring Single-Digit Temps to Northern Plains, Freezes Deep into the South

Fri, 07 Nov 2025 15:59:13 GMT

A powerful burst of Arctic air is on the move, set to drive a dramatic temperature plunge across much of the U.S. this weekend into early next week. Meteorologist Drew Lerner of World Weather Inc. says this upcoming cold surge could deliver the most widespread chill of the season so far, and it’s being intensified by key factors: dry soils and dry air.

From Record Heat to Bitter Cold

Just days after record-breaking heat scorched the West , a sharp reversal is underway. A surge of frigid air straight from the Arctic is diving south, bringing widespread frost and freezing conditions well beyond the northern states.

According to Lerner: “Temperatures below freezing could stretch all the way down to the Delta,” with single-digit lows possible in parts of the northern Plains and teens across the upper Midwest.

“This is an air mass that’s coming straight from the Arctic,” Lerner explains. “And when that kind of air travels over dry land, especially with the drought conditions we have across the Plains and Canadian Prairies, there’s nothing to moderate it. The cold becomes even more intense.”

That blast will drop temperatures well below normal across the central and eastern U.S., with freezing temperatures stretching all the way down to the Delta by Monday morning.

(Drew Lerner )

Dry Soils Make Cold Air Colder

The ongoing drought, reflected in the latest U.S. Drought Monitor , is playing a major role in how extreme the cold feels. Without moisture in the soil or atmosphere to absorb and hold heat, temperatures swing dramatically — soaring well above normal ahead of a front, then crashing well below normal once Arctic air settles in.

“The dry bias we have right now isn’t going to change when that cold air arrives,” Lerner notes. “So we’re going to see temperatures just plummet.”

That means agriculture producers, particularly in the Southern and Eastern states, need to be on alert. Lerner expects frost and freezes to reach as far east as the Carolinas and Georgia, potentially stressing late-season crops and winter wheat stands that haven’t fully hardened off.

While this particular cold surge may only last a few days, Lerner says it’s part of a larger pattern that will repeat through winter — alternating bursts of warmth and cold, driven by La Niña and jet stream fluctuations.

(Drew Lerner )

A Pattern That Could Repeat

While this cold snap will be short-lived, Lerner warns it’s likely a preview of what’s to come this winter. He expects the pattern of alternating warm and cold spells to persist, driven by La Niña and the configuration of the jet stream.

“This is something we’re going to see periodically over the winter,” Lerner says. “We’ll get these big bursts of cold air into the eastern U.S., followed by warmer intervals that bring storminess to the Pacific Northwest and the central Rockies.”

Those intermittent storms might deliver some much-needed moisture to the upper Midwest, but much of the central and southwestern Plains is expected to remain drier than normal through at least early winter.

What Farmers Can Expect

Coldest Morning: Monday, with single digits in the northern Plains and lows near freezing across the Deep South.
Freeze Risk: Frost and light freezes likely as far east as the Carolinas and Georgia.
Moisture Outlook: Continued dryness in the central U.S. under La Niña.
Pattern Ahead: More frequent cold surges alternating with warm, stormy spells in the West.

Looking Ahead

Lerner suggests producers might need to wait until January or February before seeing any meaningful change in the moisture pattern. Until then, temperature swings will be the norm — and the upcoming Arctic outbreak will be a sharp reminder that winter is knocking at the door.

“I’m not ready for single digits either,” Lerner adds with a laugh.

Widespread Warmth, Lingering Drought Dominate Early November Outlook

Wed, 05 Nov 2025 16:07:22 GMT

It’s been an unusually warm start to November, a trend that’s gripping the West and preventing moisture from reaching areas that need it. But that trend could shift later in the month, at least in terms of temperatures.

Several parts of the U.S. experienced their warmest November days on record in 2025, including Denver, Colo., and Tucson, Ariz. Other locations like Goodland, Kan., Sidney, Neb., and La Junta, Colo., also set daily record highs. But just how high are we talking?

Denver : Broke its all-time record November high, reaching 83°F and significantly exceeding the previous record of 78°F
Tucson : Set a record for the hottest day of the year on Saturday with 88°F, then broke its own record the next day with 92°F
Cheyenne : Recorded its latest-ever 70°F
San Jose : Reached 80°F

Meteorologist Brian Bledsoe, of Brian Bledsoe Weather, says through the first half of November, he expects above-normal temperatures across the western two-thirds of the country, with the Southeast seeing slightly cooler conditions.

“The western two-thirds of the country are just going to be a blowtorch,” he says.

Not Good News for Chances of Rain

It’s not just the warmth, but also the lack of moisture in the forecast. Bledsoe says rain chances will stay limited for most regions, especially the Mid-Mississippi Valley and the Gulf Coast, where below-normal precipitation is likely. The Pacific Northwest and parts of the Northern Rockies are the exceptions, potentially seeing wetter-than-average conditions.

“We’re continuing to build on some of these dry areas that have expanded across much of the country,” Bledsoe says. “If you look at the current drought monitor, there’s still a good bit of the country suffering from drought.”

The most recent look at the U.S. Drought Monitor paints a troubling picture heading into winter.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

He notes that drought persists in the Southwest, where the monsoon season failed to deliver consistent rainfall. Washington, Idaho, and northwest Montana are also struggling with dryness, while parts of the Corn Belt — and even sections of the Northeast — remain abnormally dry.

“Absolutely, we have areas we need to work on,” he says. “But the current pattern just isn’t conducive to big storms bringing widespread moisture.”

Ridge Holds Firm Across the West

Bledsoe explains a strong ridge of high pressure anchored over the interior West — covering Utah, Colorado, Arizona, and New Mexico — is pushing most storm systems northward.

A look at how the warmth will shift in November.

(Brian Bledsoe )

“That ridge is basically diverting the storm track,” he says. “Meanwhile, farther east — across the eastern Great Lakes and into the far eastern Corn Belt — we’ll be under the influence of a trough of low pressure. That brings a few chances for colder air and maybe some brief moisture, but it’s not a setup for big storms.”

Pattern Shift Possible Later in November

There is some hope for change as the month progresses. Long-range European models show the upper-level ridge beginning to weaken, opening the door for a more active storm track.

“As that ridge gradually breaks down, we’ll start to see less of the drier-than-average pattern,” Bledsoe says. “Areas farther north will likely see moisture first, and then hopefully that extends farther south into the Plains.”

Precipitation outlook for the first half of November.

(Brian Bledsoe )

Snow in the Forecast?

While the heat was the headline to start November, and continues to be the case in the western U.S., there will be a blip of not just cooler air, but much colder air that could bring snow to the central and eastern parts of the country. But it won’t last long.

AccuWeather says you’ll need to brace for a big change this weekend and early next week in the central and eastern United States . AccuWeather meteorologists warn the weather pattern indicates a surge of cold air and at least one storm capable of producing a band of accumulating snow across parts of the Midwest, followed by lake-effect snow and perhaps a bit of snow in portions of the Appalachians to the south.

AccuWeather says cold air will fail to gain a lasting foothold for the remainder of this week, with significant temperature swings from one day to the next in the Midwest and Northeast.

(AccuWeather)

AccuWeather is calling it “Christmastime cold” that’s on the way.
Their meteorologists say a large push of cold air arrives this weekend, which will cause conditions to drastically change.

A significant dip in the jet stream is forecast to begin this weekend for the Central and Eastern states.

“Temperatures will feel more like mid-December or even Christmastime in many places by next week,” AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok says.

A storm is forecast to track along the boundary of the advancing cold air from this weekend in the Midwest to early next week in the Northeast.

(AccuWeather )

But the cold air will fail to gain a lasting foothold for the remainder of this week, with significant temperature swings from one day to the next in the Midwest and Northeast, according to AccuWeather.

It may be temporary, but the colder air will bring chances of accumulating snow in areas of the Midwest and the Appalachians that are farther south and rather low in elevation, according to AccuWeather. The storm is forecast to track along the boundary of the advancing cold air from this weekend in the Midwest to early next week in the Northeast.

“As we see it now, the most likely time for snow showers in Chicago that can bring a small accumulation is late Saturday night to Sunday morning,” Pastelok says. “Around Detroit the most likely timing for accumulating snow showers is from Sunday morning to Sunday midday.”

While an excessive accumulation of snow is not anticipated on the roads, AccuWeather says the snow can fall at a heavy enough rate near the Interstate 94 and 80/90 corridor to make for slushy conditions in some areas.

Unpacking the Disappointment: 5 Reasons Some Iowa Growers Had Ho-Hum Corn Yields

Mon, 03 Nov 2025 22:44:33 GMT

A growing season that started with tremendous potential in east-central Iowa finished with yield results that left many growers in the area disappointed by average or below-average results, according to Agronomist Nicole Stecklein.

Stecklein details five key factors she believes contributed to disappointing 2025 yield results. Here are her key takeaways from this season as well as some recommendations for 2026.

1. A ‘planting date effect’ occurred: Stecklein says she is an early-plant advocate and likes to see farmers start planting when the soil is fit and a good weather forecast is in the cards.

“In eight years out of 10 years, that usually turns out pretty good. In a lot of cases, the early planted corn will be your best corn, but that wasn’t the case this year,” she says.

Early-planted corn, particularly those hybrids in early to mid-maturities, generally underperformed.

Stecklein identified two main culprits. First, there was considerable localized soil crusting. Even with rotary hoeing, significant variability in ear development and inconsistent pollination impacted the crop and contributed to yield loss.

A second culprit was that the earlier planted corn seemed to bear the brunt of later-season stresses, particularly from disease issues, heavy moisture and above-average temperatures.

Too much rain and disease were problems for Ward Hunter, Ogden, Iowa, especially southern rust. He told U.S. Farm Report’s Tyne Morgan that his early corn hybrid yields were disappointing, coming in at around 220 bu. per acre, even though he applied a fungicide.

“We were at about our APH,” he says. “If it hadn’t been for disease pressure, I think we could have been in the 270s or so [with early maturing hybrids] here in central Iowa.”

FBN Poll Results: This week's poll, with over 1,700 responses, shows 50% of participating FBN members seeing corn yields below expectations. Review the full results and share your thoughts: https://t.co/37lji8uYSc #farmersfirst #harvest25 #corn pic.twitter.com/LoijKZGnJ5
— FBN (@FBNFarmers) October 31, 2025

For farmers wondering if they should move to later planting dates across the baord in 2026, Stecklein says probably not. Instead, she says to continue to evaluate soils and weather conditions at planting.

Ken Ferrie offers similar advice to farmers in central Iowa and central Illinois. “My advice for farmers is if we have a green light in April, plant some corn,” says Ferrie, Farm Journal Field Agronomist.

However, Ferrie says farmers shouldn’t be afraid to wait until May to get a green light from Mother Nature to start the planting process.

“We never know how the rest of the year will play out. So, breaking the planting window up is a good way to mitigate risk and take the jam out of the fall of having everything ready at the same time,” he explains.

2. High winds were a blow to corn performance: June brought a series of severe high-wind events to large swaths of east-central Iowa.

The damage manifested in root lodging, green snap, and willowing. Corn that had already tasseled before the winds hit fared better, thanks to better developed root systems and brace roots, Stecklein reports.

Conversely, corn that had not yet tasseled suffered the most severe root lodging and green snap, as its rapidly growing, brittle nodes were highly susceptible.

Willowing, which occurs where corn plants bend at the waist, proved to be a stealthy yield robber this summer. The stress from bending, particularly around the developing ear node, led to poorly pollinated ears with short husks, leaving grain exposed to elements, birds and disease, significantly impacting quality and yield.

Tons of sub 150 corn in our area. Harrison and Pottawattamie county Iowa. Too much wind/greensnap and too much diesese. It’s the crop that never was.
— Brandon Clark (@clarkbrandon44) November 3, 2025

While wind is an unavoidable reality across the state, Stecklein would advise farmers in consistently windy areas to consider prioritizing root and green snap scores when selecting hybrids for 2026.

“This is not a foolproof way to get around the wind. It’s just knowing that some hybrids have a lower possibility of getting hit by wind in a window when they’re vulnerable, because all corn is vulnerable. The wind is all about timing. But if you shorten that window, then you’re decreasing the chances that you’ll get hit at a vulnerable time,” she explains.

3. Heat took a bite out of yield potential. Another major factor impacting 2025 yields in east-central Iowa was the pervasive overnight heat during grain fill, specifically in July and August.

Stecklein says the general rule of thumb is for each night during grain fill that temperatures stay at 70 degrees Fahrenheit or above, your corn crop will experience about a 1% yield loss in each 24-hour period.

What happens is the result of a lack of equilibrium between the process of photosynthesis during the day and then respiration at night.

“During the day, the plant is taking sunlight and carbon dioxide and making sugars. It’s creating energy,” Stecklein explains. “Overnight, you have respiration occurring. Respiration is using energy to repair cells, And the rate of these processes is very temperature dependent.”

When nighttime temperatures remain high, the rate of respiration dramatically increases. This means the plant burns through its energy reserves much faster.

Stecklein says that in July and August, parts of east-central Iowa had 15 nights that stayed at 70 degrees or greater.

“If you’re good at math, that means a 15% yield loss. If you had 300 bushels to lose at tassel, that brings you straight down to 255, bushels, just based on overnight temperatures,” she says.

4. Disease pressure reached unprecedented levels for some farmers. The big gorilla this season was southern rust, which took most Iowa farmers by surprise.

”Southern rust is the one that everybody is talking about, because it’s so aggressive and because, honestly, in Iowa, we were not prepared for how aggressive it was going to be,” Stecklein says.

Unlike tar spot, southern rust is not a disease that overwinters in residue. It must “blow in” from the South, and it also needs corn to infect to complete its life cycle. For those reasons, Stecklein would advise Iowa farmers to not make hybrid decisions for next year based on concerns for southern rust.

However, she would advise them to take tar spot into consideration as they evaluate which hybrids to plant in 2026.

“If you are going to spray [a fungicide], you’re going to be OK if you do choose a hybrid that’s susceptible, because there are some very good hybrids out there that aren’t super tolerant to tar spot. Make sure that you’re planning on at least making one fungicide pass at tassel. But if you will not spray two passes of fungicide, do not choose a hybrid that has a very poor tar spot rating, because if we get the weather that’s very conducive to tar spot, you’re going to lose some bushels,” she adds.

5. Phantom yield loss showed up at harvest. Based on phantom yield loss data, Stecklein says there’s about 2 bushels lost per percent of moisture. How that translates into a yield loss: if you like to harvest at 22% moisture but the crop is at 16% moisture when you finally combine it, you’re looking at a loss of 12 bushels per acre.

If you find yourself consistently harvesting corn at a drier level than you want, Stecklein would say it’s time to adjust your hybrid maturities. If phantom yield loss isn’t a consistent issue you face, then you’re probably OK to stick with your current maturities.

Her final advice for 2026: “I keep wanting to say that every year I learn something unique, but at the end of the day, my key takeaways from every year have almost always been the same: if you plan for failure and if you give up, you’re going to be met with failure. However, if you are persistent through hardships and manage according to those hardships, you’re setting yourself up for success.”

Watch Stecklein’s recent video, Corn 2025: What happened , for more insights on the east-central Iowa corn results.

La Niña Watch Is On — Here’s How It Could Shake Up Drought and Winter Weather

Fri, 17 Oct 2025 16:42:11 GMT

Farmers across the U.S. are gearing up for a potentially volatile winter as the National Weather Service has placed the country under a La Niña Watch. But what does that really mean for the months ahead? Eric Snodgrass, principal atmospheric scientist for Nutrien Ag Solutions , says this winter’s pattern could be one to watch closely.

Weather Highlights from Now Through December

Expect an early-peaking La Niña, with the strongest impacts likely around Christmas.
Look for cold, snowy conditions in the north and dryness in the south.
Watch for frequent Arctic intrusions and an active Ohio Valley storm track.
Recharging soil moisture before freeze-up is critical, especially in the Midwest.
Persistent Cotton Belt drought could influence next summer’s Corn Belt outlook.
South America faces a wetter north/drier south split, which could affect global crop markets.

What a La Niña Watch Means

The Climate Prediction Center says there’s a 71% chance of La Niña conditions developing from October through December. CPC also issued a La Niña Watch , which means conditions are favorable for the development of La Niña within the next six months.

“La Niña just means the trade winds are fast across the equator,” Snodgrass explains. “When that happens, it tends to give us a very loopy jet stream throughout winter.”

That looping pattern is something Snodgrass says influences everything from temperature swings to precipitation.

“When you think about La Niña winters, they all have different flavors,” he says. “We’ve had four La Niñas in the last five winters. This would be the sixth one in that time frame. And the big question we have is: Is it going to deliver typical La Niña conditions?”

Historically, La Niña brings colder and snowier conditions across the northern U.S. and drier conditions in the South.

“We typically find that we’re dry from the Southwest, the Sun Belt to the Cotton Belt,” Snodgrass says. “We tend to be snowier and colder to the north — across parts of the Pacific Northwest, Northern Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes. La Niña winters tend to be cold, tend to snow, but that’s not a guarantee — it’s a tendency.”

Early Peak, Quick Exit

This year’s La Niña is expected to be relatively short-lived.

“We think it’s going to peak early, probably right around Christmas, and probably quickly exit,” Snodgrass notes. “The big question I have is: What’s going to happen to the drought monitor between now and next April when we’re thinking about a La Niña winter?”

Moisture Deficits Are a Big Concern

Moisture is already top of mind for many growers. After an unexpectedly wet spring in some regions, conditions turned dry quickly, leaving soil moisture depleted.

“We need to get a lot of moisture before the ground freezes in parts of the Midwest,” he says. “If we can do that, we’ll lock that in and save it for spring.”

But getting there might involve a bumpy ride.

“There are a lot of indications right now that this winter could be fun,” Snodgrass says with a laugh. “When I say fun, that’s fun for me to forecast. That means most people don’t like those kinds of winters. They’re probably going to be pretty volatile — frequent but brief intrusions of really Arctic air.”

He says we recently saw a hint of that with the rain that hit the East Coast last week.

“That’ll set up an active storm track through the Ohio Valley most likely. We already saw our first nor’easter go up the East Coast just last weekend, and you look at all of that and you’re going, is this kind of the way things are going to shake down,” he adds.

If the pattern develops as expected, it could dramatically shrink drought coverage , which currently is covering 73% of the continental U.S.

“You add La Niña into the mix, and it could be a winter that takes the drought monitor from 73% maybe down to 43% or even below that,” he explains. “But the question will remain: Where did the drought stick around?”

Snodgrass is particularly concerned about lingering drought in the South.

“What I always worry about with La Niña winters is if Cotton Belt drought survives, especially in the Delta. And if it’s there by the time we get to spring, then I start to worry about Corn Belt drought the next summer,” he says. “So yes, this is going to be a critical winter for us.”

Analog Years Point to a Volatile Pattern

When asked about potential analog years, Snodgrass points to a recent and familiar one.

“The best analog is actually last year, 2024, which is kind of funny,” he says. “There are five different areas around the globe, and the ocean temperatures, plus the fall drought in the Mississippi basin, plus what’s going on in the Indian Ocean, plus what’s going on in South America — all of these things are like, hey, we just saw this. It was called last October, November.”

That year brought some memorable weather swings. Does that mean we should set ourselves up for a mild rest of fall and then a brutally cold January and February where it snows as far south as New Orleans? That’s what the U.S. experienced last winter, followed by a super wet spring.

“I hate to say it, but 2024 is kind of setting itself up to be an interesting analog to this year,” Snodgarass says. “But like I said, there’s no such thing as a perfect analog — we’ll have to sit and wait to see how it all unfolds.”

South America’s Split Forecast

La Niña’s impacts won’t be confined to the U.S.

“It tends to split South America from Brazil to Argentina,” Snodgrass explains. “Brazil tends to have a decent monsoon — tends to be wetter. They tend to love La Niña if you’re in the Cerrado. If you’re in southern Brazil, they start to get worried. They tend to see drier conditions. You get into Argentina, historically, it’s drier.”

Some areas have already received favorable early rains, while others are still waiting for the monsoon to ramp up. Not only have areas of Brazil seen good rains, but they’ve also been able to plant at a rapid pace.

“And others are going, wait a minute, we haven’t seen this monsoon get really going yet, and they’re waiting. I think it’s going to be a north versus south issue — wetter north, drier south,” Snodgrass says.

The Key to Reversing Low River Levels and Shoring Up Critical Infrastructure

Fri, 03 Oct 2025 18:55:11 GMT

Mississippi River levels are low this fall season—for the third year in a row.

“The timing couldn’t be worse,” says Jon Davis, chief meteorologist at Everstream Analytics. “October is a critical month for barge transportation in the Mississippi River Basin. This is especially the case in the agricultural sector as crops are harvested in the Midwest and transported mainly by barge to New Orleans.”

He says this year’s river levels mimic 2024 conditions. Barge restrictions were put in place in September, and currently, the low-water restrictions for southbound vessels on the Lower Mississippi River from the U.S. Coast Guard include:

• Cairo, Ill., to Lake Providence, La., MM 869-483: Drafts no greater than 10'6" and barges no more than six wide.

• Lake Providence, La., to the Gulf of Mexico, MM 483-303: Drafts no greater than 11' and barges no more than six wide.

“August was a very dry month in the Central and Eastern Corn Belt and in the Delta, and in mid- to late August, we began to see that response in the river system overall. That was the time frame we began to watch things very closely,” Davis says. “Based on September being very dry, it looked like the overall decline in river levels was going to continue and we’re going to get into a bit more of a restrictive environment, which would certainly impact logistics on the river system.”

The weather patterns of the past seven weeks accelerated river level issues.

“The combination of recent warmth and long-term dryness has led to this decline in river levels, and if we look at the river levels now compared with the last 10 years, we’re at some of the lowest levels we’ve seen,” Davis adds.

Ohio River at Cairo, Ill. Oct 1, 2025

(USGS)

Mississippi River at Dubuque, Iowa on Oct. 1

(USGS)

Davis says there’s not much recharge for the river in the forecast — and the greatest source for getting levels back up is unfortunately a tropical system, such as a hurricane.

Mississippi River at Memphis, TN on Oct. 1

(USGS)

Mississippi River at New Orleans on Oct. 1

(USGS)

“That’s what helped last year—the storms that developed in October,” he says.

Looking at the forecast, the next seven to 10 days doesn’t show much promise for precipitation along the Mississippi River Valley or the Ohio River Valley, which notably feeds the lower Mississippi. However, the end of October could turn wetter, which might slow the finish of harvest but could recharge the vital artery in our inland waterways.

California's Water Crisis: Farmers Warn Water Rules Could Cripple Central Valley Agriculture

Wed, 01 Oct 2025 10:52:47 GMT

On Hansen Ranch in the Central Valley, fifth-generation farmer Erik Hansen grows a little bit of everything — pistachios, almonds, pomegranates, alfalfa, corn for silage and cotton.

“We farm 15, 16 different crops,” Hansen says. “Cotton is our biggest acreage crop, and that’s in the form of Pima cotton.”

That diversification has long been the Hansen family’s survival strategy. But in spring 2023, no amount of crop rotation could shield them from disaster.

“Where we’re standing right now was underwater,” Hansen recalls. “A mile from here, over by that PG&E substation, was the edge of the lake.”

The flood wiped out 600 acres of pomegranates and 400 acres of pistachios. One thousand acres of permanent crops gone in one season.

“It was a massive hit,” Hansen says. “We had about 5,000 to 6,000 acres under water. Some of that water lasted for over a year.”

From Too Much Water to Not Enough

The irony is hard to ignore: In 2023, floodwaters destroyed thousands of acres. Now, Hansen says it’s the lack of access to water that could cripple farms across the Central Valley.

“The last projections I heard were anywhere from 1 million to 1.2 million acres totaled in the valley,” he says, referring to farmland that could be idled by the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) .

Passed in 2014, SGMA requires local agencies to reduce groundwater overdraft and achieve sustainable use by 2040. On paper, Hansen says, that makes sense.

“To some extent it is good because you have to have a way to manage the overdraft,” he explains. “The problem is there are surface water facilities we developed back in the 50s and 60s that we’re just not using. A lot of that water is going out to the Pacific Ocean.”

For Hansen, the politics sting. He believes decades of state decisions — prioritizing fish and wildlife, reallocating water, and neglecting infrastructure — set up today’s crisis.

“I’m frustrated because the families that have been farming here for years, some decades, sometimes even more, are being footed with a bill for problems that somebody else created,” Hansen says. “If the state doesn’t look in the mirror, I think we’re going to find ourselves in the same position again.”

Young Farmers Face the Same Struggles

Forty miles south, 30-year-old Elizabeth Keenan is navigating the same regulatory headwinds. Her grandfather Charlie started Keenan Farms in 1972, acquiring one of California’s first pistachio orchards. Today, Elizabeth farms alongside her parents and brother.

“Rolling with the regulatory punches can be complicated,” she admits. “Despite pistachios being such a high-value product, despite having optimal land and weather conditions, we really have everything set up beautifully — except for legislation.”

Water, she says, is the most difficult hurdle.

“We’re up to a 50% allocation,” Keenan explains. “The base allocation is 2.2 acre-feet, so we get 1.1 acre-feet to use. Otherwise, we have to have open fallow fields. To pump more water, we have to buy it on the open market, and that’s expensive too.”

A Political Battle Over Flows

Signs line highways across the Central Valley warning that 80% of California’s river water flows out to the Pacific instead of farms. Assemblyman David Tangipa, a freshman lawmaker representing the 8^th District, says those numbers are real.

“It’s 100% happening,” Tangipa says. “Almost 83% of all water in the state is automatically pushed out for environmental purposes.”

California averages about 200 million acre-feet of water each year, Tangipa notes, but despite record rainfall, farms often get less than half of their allocations.

“We’ve prioritized so much environmental legislation that more than 80% of our water is pushed out immediately to the ocean, unnaturally,” he says. “Meanwhile, farmers get less water and more land goes out of production.”

Proponents of Current Water Flows

There are proponents of the current way the water flows, mainly for environmental reasons and to prevent saltwater contamination of freshwater sources.

California releases water into the ocean to prevent saltwater intrusion into freshwater supplies, protect endangered aquatic species and ecosystems, and maintain the delicate balance of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta estuary, a critical source of drinking and irrigation water.

A portion of released water is also used for stormwater management to prevent flooding, as it can be difficult and impractical to capture and store all of it.

And those in favor of environmental water releases say it’s essential to support broader ecosystem benefits like water filtration and carbon sequestration, which are important for overall environmental health.

The Ripple Effect

The Central Valley of California is a powerhouse in food production for the U.S. That area alone produces approximately half of all the fruits and vegetables grown in the U.S., as well as a large portion of the nation’s nuts and other foods. When you break down the numbers, the Central Valley accounts for about 60% of the nation’s fruits and nuts, and about 30% of the nation’s vegetables.

For Thomas Putzel, who works with farmers across the Central Valley, the impact of regulations isn’t just measured in acre-feet. It’s measured in livelihoods and the food supply.

“The environmentalists try to say farmers are wasting water,” he says. “But when we look at what farmers provide, we’re planting forests. One acre of almonds will capture 18 metric tons of carbon a year. That’s like taking 29 million cars off the road.”

Putzel says California voters already approved a water bond to build new storage a decade ago, but no new projects have been built.

“Not one shovel has gone in the ground in 10 years,” he says. “Actually, they took some of that money and tore dams down.”

Meanwhile, permanent crops wither when water isn’t available, leaving behind dead orchards that invite pests and rodents into neighboring fields.

“SGMA’s not necessarily a bad thing,” Putzel says. “But you’ve asked growers to run a marathon with their legs tied together. People don’t understand; food doesn’t come from a grocery store. It comes from a farmer. If California stopped shipping produce for one week, our stores would be empty.”

“Is Farming in California’s Best Interest?”

For Erik Hansen, the question is bigger than water allocations or acreage lost.

“Government is probably the biggest problem right now,” he says. “It just seems California hasn’t really decided whether farming is in their best interest. Politicians like to say they’re for small business and small farming, but virtually every piece of legislation makes it more difficult to survive.”

As the Central Valley wrestles with the challenges of floods, drought and regulations, one reality is clear: The fate of these farms is tied not just to weather and soil but to political decisions that could shape the future of food in America.

Drought Persists Despite Recent Rain, Forecast Points to Dry October

Tue, 30 Sep 2025 19:36:38 GMT

Rain finally fell across parts of the Midwest this past week, but for many farmers, it was a case of “too little, too late.” Much of the corn had already died down rather than matured fully before drying down, and soybeans had already finished.

Eric Snodgrass, Nutrien’s Principal Atmospheric Scientist, says the dry August and September is causing moisture problems in both the corn and soybean plants this year, with farmers running into issues with the crop drying down.

“Some people were trying to harvest because the beans finished and the corn didn’t dry down, it died down,” says Snodgrass. “So even when the rain finally showed up, for many farmers it wasn’t the help they needed at the right time.”

Latest look at the U.S. Drought Monitor

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

That drought is also showing up in harvest conditions, with many farmers reporting a lot of dust this year, making it hard to see.

Little dusty in the drought zone. #harvest25 pic.twitter.com/B75PXPolTa
— Noggle Farms (@Noggle_Farms) September 30, 2025

A dusty and dry harvest so far. #harvest25 pic.twitter.com/H9LmQKEzxA
— Kent (@kecasson) September 30, 2025

Blame the Dryness on the Bermuda High

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor showed slight improvement across portions of the Midwest, Southern Illinois and the Plains, but there was also drought expansion across much of the East.

What’s the driver? Snodgrass says the expanding drought, which started in August, can be blamed on the Bermuda high.

Changes in the U.S. drought picture shows scattered improvement over the past week, but deepening dryness and drought across much of the East and Southeast, as well as areas of Texas and the Northwest.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

“About a month, even 45 days ago, we watched the Bermuda high drift off to Africa, and that mostly shut down our open access to Gulf moisture for most of the Corn Belt,” Snodgrass says. “Now, the Western Corn Belt did get some rain, and earlier last week a storm system came in and dumped what was left of the moisture into some key areas. But even with that rain, it really didn’t put a big dent in the drought in the Mississippi, Ohio, Missouri basin. Drought continued to build into the Southeast as well.”

The Two-Week Outlook: Dry Harvest Conditions Ahead

Looking forward, Snodgrass said farmers can expect dry harvest conditions — but that comes with trade-offs.

“We’re going to blow open the harvest windows in the midsection of the country,” he explains. “It will get drier again, it’s going to stay very mild, which is great for combines rolling. But the downside is that the soil isn’t recharging with the moisture we need for fall fieldwork and the next growing season.”

Rainfall forecast over the next 14 days.

(Eric Snodgrass, Nutrien)

Still, not all regions will share that pattern. Looking ahead, a strong ridge pattern is expected to dominate North Central North America. That means much of the country’s midsection will see dry, mild conditions — favorable for an open harvest window but not for replenishing soil moisture.

West Coast: Rain systems are forecast.
Southeast: Rain will arrive, but from a tropical system with the potential to deliver extreme rainfall, possibly 8–12 inches in localized areas depending on what the tropical system does.

Global Weather Watch: Brazil in Focus

Snodgrass also pointed to Brazil, where recent rains have kick-started soybean planting. However, high pressure systems aren’t positioned to sustain rainfall over the next two weeks, raising concerns about early-season dryness that could hamper crop establishment.

“Brazil had a front come through this week that delivered rain, and that’s going to spark a lot of planting,” Snodgrass said. “But the problem is, the high pressure that feeds the moisture is not in the right spot, so for the next two weeks it’s going to be drier across much of Brazil. That could hamper planting. If they can build momentum, they’ll get a lot going just after these rains, but they’re going to need more to sustain it.”

Forecast for South America

(Eric Snodgrass, Nutrien)

Bottom Line

For now, U.S. farmers can expect drier harvest conditions through October, but with lingering drought across key growing regions and uncertainty in global weather patterns, soil moisture recharge may be delayed until later in the season.

“Weather’s going to take front stage for the next few weeks — North America, South America, everywhere,” Snodgrass said. “We’re in a critical stretch where timing, rainfall, and temperature patterns are going to have a big impact on harvest and planting alike.”

You can watch Snodgrass’ full forecast below.

Ferrie: Why Your Corn Crop Could Be Drying Slowly This Fall

Tue, 23 Sep 2025 21:16:53 GMT

While some Illinois corn growers are heading into harvest early, others are telling Ken Ferrie their corn is drying slowly in the field – they’re seeing moisture levels drop only one point per week.

The rule of thumb historically is that mature corn that dies after reaching black layer will dry in the field at a rate of 0.5% to 1.0% per day in September, and then 0.25% to 0.5% per day in October, according to Iowa State University Extension .

Generally, it takes about 30 GDDs to lower grain moisture each point from 30% down to 25%. Drying from 25% to 20% percent requires about 45 GDDs per point of moisture, according to Peter Thomison, Ohio State University retired Extension state specialist for corn production.

But many agronomic factors come into play that influence dry down, including genetics, delayed planting, nutrient use, weather conditions — especially temperature, humidity, and rainfall — and disease issues.

Reaching Black Layer Prematurely Plays A Role

One reason for a slow drydown process in some fields is a result of the crop dying prematurely.

Premature corn death occurred in parts of the Midwest crop and for multiple reasons. In dry and droughty areas of Illinois, farmers saw high heat kill their corn crop prior to black layer. Likewise, Ferrie says many Iowa and Minnesota growers had corn that died before black layer due to southern rust and other disease pressure – even where the crop had adequate water.

“Corn that dies before black layer from dry weather, high heat or disease pressure can dry down slower,” says Ferrie, Farm Journal Field Agronomist, in this week’s Boots In The Field podcast.

The damage caused by adverse weather or disease can cause the plants to reach physiological maturity (black layer) prematurely, leading to poor dry-down and higher grain moisture, according to Purdue University corn specialists in an online article.

“When it comes to corn that dies pre black layer, you are at the mercy of God’s corn dryer,” says Ferrie, who encourages farmers to keep checking corn moisture levels and stalk quality to determine when to start harvest.

He offers three additional recommendations:

1. Don’t forget to calibrate combine yield monitors. “We need good, calibrated maps for when we analyze this crop at your yield map meetings this winter,” Ferrie says. “What these maps will teach us is invaluable in helping us shape our plans going forward, especially for you guys that are on the high-res program.”

2. Stay on top of harvest losses. Dry crops will mean more header loss for both corn and beans. “The tip pullback we’re seeing in [central Illinois] corn means we’re going to have to work a little harder to get this stuff off the cob. So keep a close eye on your thrashing losses,” he says.

3. Be proactive with your soybean harvest. “If they’re testing but cutting tough, keep grinding them out at that higher moisture. Don’t let that get away from you,” Ferrie says. “If you can knock beans out of the pod and they’re testing, even though that combine’s groaning, keep going as these moistures drop.”

Ferrie gives an update on yields he’s seeing across Illinois in this week’s Boots In The Field podcast here:

Drought Conditions Intensify Threat Of Field And Combine Fires

Mon, 22 Sep 2025 19:57:26 GMT

High temperatures and low humidity across the eastern and western Corn Belt this past week have increased the risks for field and combine fires as harvest ramps up across the country.

With the dry conditions, Ken Ferrie encourages everyone to have plans A and B in place, ready to implement if fire occurs.

“If your plan A is to call the fire department, remember, in rural America, most of our great volunteer firemen are running their own combines, so response time is a challenge,” he says.

While Ferrie believes you – or someone on your team – needs to call the fire department or 911 to get help, he says to consider making containment your Plan A.

In the case of a field fire, keep a tillage tool or spray tender nearby. “Have it in the field with you ready to go,” he advises.

Crops that are extremely dry coupled with even a bit of wind can set up a fast-moving scenario you need to snuff out quickly. Time is of the essence, as a fire can double in size within a mere minute or two.

“That situation won’t wait for you to go home, find a tractor, dig out a tillage tool or stick a hose in your spray tender and get to your field,” Ferrie says. “You won’t have the time to do that.”

A fully engulfed corn crib fire spread to nearby fields in Foosland this Friday.
📸: Mackenzie Wichtnerhttps://t.co/XkFERxHVf6 pic.twitter.com/1sG1uVVlMW
— WICS ABC 20 (@wics_abc20) September 19, 2025

In case of a combine fire, turn off the engine, get away from the machine, and phone for help.

Then, attack with fire extinguishers if it is safe to do so, advises Joshua Michel, Iowa State University field agronomist, in an online article .

“Try to fight from the ‘black,’ the area already burned,” Michel says. “Attacking a fire from areas with combustibles (e.g. dry corn stalks) is much riskier. Always stay upwind of a fire to minimize the risk of exposure from smoke, heat and possible flames.”

Keeping a shovel on the combine to throw dirt on a fire can also help.

Five Practical Steps To Be Ready For A Fire

Here are five additional things you can do to address a fire or prevent one from occurring this harvest:

1. As you combine fields, Ferrie says to keep in mind the wind direction. “Combine downwind, if possible, on windy days so if we have a combine fire it burns away from the crop,” he advises.

2. Have a daily maintenance plan for your equipment, including blowing off chaff and debris, properly lubricating chains/bearings, and cleaning up spills, advises Ohio State University Extension (OSU).

“The majority of harvester fires start in the engine compartment. Contributing factors for heat sources include faulty wiring, over-heated bearings, leaking fuel or hydraulic oil,” report Wayne Dellinger and Dee Jepsen at OSU, in this online article .

3. Have two ABC-rated fire extinguishers on hand. Keep a smaller 10-pound unit in the cab and a larger 20-pound extinguisher at ground level on the combine. Keeping an extra fire extinguisher on other pieces of machinery or trucks that are out in the field is also a good idea.

4. Invert the fire extinguisher once or twice during the season to ensure that machine vibrations don’t compact the powder inside.

5. Review your fire emergency plan with family and employees. As part of that, create a list with the 911 addresses for each of your field locations prior to harvest and have them easily accessible to family members and farm employees, Michel encourages. When a fire is called in with a 911 address, dispatch can more readily identify the incident location and relay this information to the fire department. This can save precious time as some fields may be in remote locations.

Your next read: 5 Critical Insights From The Southern Rust Rampage In Midwest Corn

West Central Illinois Farmer Says Corn Yields Are Down 20 to 30 Bu. Per Acre From Last Year

Wed, 17 Sep 2025 12:25:15 GMT

Perched on the edge of what’s considered to be abnormally dry to moderate drought, west central Illinois farmer Brent Johnson had high hopes for yields at the start of this year. A strong start with even emergence set the groundwork for a solid crop. Instead, as harvest rushes in, the reality of an extremely dry finish to summer is also setting in.

“The corn right now, the general consensus is it’s off 20 to 30 bushels [per acre] from last year and soybeans are off by about 8 to 15 [bu. per acre],” Johnson says.

Johnson started combining on September 3. Two weeks into harvest, he’s finding a good crop — but definitely not as good as last year.

“We didn’t have the finish that we did last year in corn or soybeans. Nothing is ideal, right? But with 98 million acres of corn, maybe we didn’t need that finish. But yields are off,” he says.

Latest look at the U.S. Drought Monitor shows abnormally dry to severe drought conditions across much of the growing region, including Illinois. It’s was a dramatic shift after such a wet start to the growing season.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

Some of Johnson’s fields haven’t seen rain in seven weeks. For other fields, it’s been as much as nine months since they’ve had measurable rainfall. And not only has it turned dry in their area of Illinois, but temperatures have soared over the past couple of weeks with temperatures above 90°F. In fact, where he farms just outside of Springfield, Ill., they recorded the hottest day of the year so far over the weekend.

“Oddly enough, as much heat as we’ve received, the corn is not drying as fast as I thought it would,” Johnson says. “We tried to harvest a field this morning that was planted end of April and it was still 30% moisture. So, we moved and we’re here now.”

Not Just Drought Eating Into Yields

Johnson says the dry weather definitely trimmed yield in their area, but there were other factors he thinks played a role as well.

“Between the dry weather, the extreme heat, the high nighttime temperatures — and then something we don’t often see — but the hazy days, the Canadian smoke, it impacted the crop. It just wasn’t a perfect year,” he says.

Kernel Weight is an Issue This Year

Johnson says the other surprise is kernel weights, and the fact it’s taking more kernels to make a bushel this year.

“That’s really where we see our highest yields year in, year out is when we have good, easy finishes to this corn crop in August and September, and we bring it to the finish line slowly. We expand those kernels. It’s kind of like going back to a buffet three, four or five times and finishing off that bowl of ice cream. They just swell, and that’s where we get our kernel weight. We don’t have that this year. We’re just racing to the finishing line,” Johnson says.

May Planted Corn May Be Hit the Hardest

The opposite happened this year. A quick finish is compromising kernel weight. And now what he’s concerned about is what the late-summer dryness could mean for his later-planted corn.

“I am a little concerned that maybe the May corn won’t be as good as it normally is because of the weather — similar to what we talked about with the later-maturity beans finishing later. So, it’s going be interesting,” Johnson says.

Johnson says for the past several years, his May planted corn has been his best yielding corn. But this year, he doubts that will hold true. He says some of his corn and soybean fields could still benefit from a rain, but it doesn’t look promising from the forecast.

Dry Weather Means Disease Pressure is Low

It may not be a perfect finish or a record crop, but one thing Johnson is thankful for is that they haven’t been overwhelmed by disease.

“Because we were so dry — we were much drier here than Iowa — we don’t have the Southern Rust pressure here that I’m seeing on social media and reading about that Iowa has,” he adds.

Soybean Yields Could Suffer

Johnson says even though yields are off, he’s actually impressed with how this corn crop finished this year in spite of the lack of rain and the heat. But with no rain in August, soybeans could be a different story.

“Beans are tricky so far because normally, we would be running pretty hard in. We use a fungicide, so we’re used to green stems and some green pods. But the beans are not maturing all at one time from what we’ve seen. So, the moisture in our sample of beans is relative to how many green beans and how many green pods are actually in the sample when they pull it at the elevator. We have yet to get a very good sample in beans, but again, we’ve only cut two fields. They were disappointing in yield. [We were] thinking that our late Group 2s would be some of our best, which gives me worry about some of the later stuff,” Johnson says.

Johnson says he if he had to describe this year’s crop, it would be “just ho-hum.”

A ho-hum crop, and one that had such a promising start here in west central Illinois, reveals record yields aren’t on tap in Illinois this year.

What caused the sudden shift to dry and hot weather? Watch the video below as Drew Lerner of World Weather looks at the drivers and how long it could last.