Cow-Calf News

Normal La Niña Pattern to Return By Thanksgiving

Tue, 18 Nov 2025 21:47:22 GMT

What are the primary weather events being watched by the leading ag meteorologists right now? Here’s a round-up.

A Bit of an Oddball La Niña

“We need to be really careful about making big assumptions about this La Niña. It is not a classic La Niña,” says Drew Lerner, World Weather, Inc. He points to two large rain events in the southern U.S. Plains this past week.

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey adds southern California has also received a lot of precipitation. He says it’s the timing and strength of the La Niña bringing a different pattern than could be expected.

“The big thing we’re watching is the fact that we’re in a La Niña during the month of September for the fifth time in six years,” Rippey says. “And with that, November’s been a little bit strange so far. We haven’t fully kicked into what you would expect to see with a La Niña regime.”

More Precipitation on Its Way

“We also have a lot of warm ocean water between Hawaii and California, so watch for more heavy rain, like we saw this week coming into California a little later in the winter,” Lerner says.

Rippey says people across the Great Plains can expect more storms through this week.

“Given the fact that we are heading into a La Niña winter, we need the moisture across the southern Plains now,” Rippey says. “It looks like more of a La Niña regime setting in for the latter part of November and certainly by Thanksgiving. By that I mean stormier, colder weather across the north, and some of that warm and dry weather should become more established across the South. It’ll be a while until we get there.”

The week of Thanksgiving is showing some increased chance for winter storms and perhaps travel-impactful weather events.

Droughty Conditions Bring Concerns

Dry weather persists in key grazing areas, which Matt Makens from Makens Weather says is his biggest concern for the rest of this year and early into 2026.

Lerner adds: “The northern Plains and neighboring areas of Canada’s prairies won’t see much precipitation. There’s still a big, bad drought up there, and they’re hoping for better moisture. But in the meantime, our wheat that’s in the soft wheat that’s in the lower Midwest bowl will get a nice drink of water.”

Pacific Storm Season Brought More Action Than the Atlantic

Reflecting on the ongoing hurricane season, Rippey says while it was indicated we could have an active season, there have been only 13 named storms and only five hurricanes.

Without any major storms making landfall in the U.S., Rippey points to a few factors:

“We had the African feeder storms, the thunderstorms that come off the African coast, came off a little further north than they normally would. And that put some of those thunderstorm complexes into a more hostile environment as they developed or tried to develop,” he says.
“We had a protective jet stream across the eastern United States, a little dip along the East Coast of the United States that really forced any developing storms to recurve before they ever reach the United States,” he says.

“A lot of that moisture ended up in the western United States eventually, remnant tropical moisture, and that certainly has helped to chip away at the drought across the western United States, courtesy of the active eastern Pacific season with 18 overall named storms,” Rippey adds.

Planting Season Outlook

While planting season is about five months away for many, the weather trends are tipping the scales to a slow start.

“I still have some confidence in saying that some of the northern areas of the country — northern plains, upper Midwest — could face a spring with a delayed warm-up,” Rippey says. “We could see some snowy cold conditions lingering into the early to mid-spring across some of those northern production areas. Typically coming out of La Niña, we do see a later planting season in the north, and we will have to watch drought in the south.”

La Niña Will Flip to El Niño

As for what’s ahead in the new year, Maken says while we might start with a La Niña, toward the end of the year, we’ll flip into an El Niño.

“And when you do this flip, it depends on how quickly it flips, because it can mean a lot of rainfall for a lot of folks,” he says. “And not that La Niña and El Niño are the end-all, be-alls, but they’re the major players in the room. Some really like hearing El Niño. Others really do not like the person saying that.”

Beef Industry Chaos: Tight Supplies, Strong Consumer Demand and Political Interference

Thu, 13 Nov 2025 19:42:19 GMT

The current state of the cattle market and beef industry has been described as chaotic. “There’s chaos in cattle,” as Chip Flory, AgriTalk host, put it.

The industry turmoil follows recent statements made by President Donald Trump regarding the need to lower beef prices as well as his request for the Department of Justice to immediately begin an investigation into meatpackers for driving up the price of beef.

Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist from Oklahoma State University, affirms these are unique times, emphasizing while political factors have always indirectly influenced agriculture, it’s unprecedented for the cattle and beef markets to be at the center of direct political debate.

On a recent AgriTalk segment, Peel points out the inherent biological and production constraints of the cattle industry — particularly the fixed timeline to raise cattle — make quick fixes impossible. Both Flory and Peel stress that no political policy can shorten the cattle production process; any effective supply response requires patience and long-term adjustment.

Packers Under Fire

The concept of industry consolidation and foreign packer ownership has long drawn scrutiny with frequent government investigations. Peel says highly concentrated industries such as beef packing have been targets for skepticism and regulatory attention for over a century, to the point suspicion of packers is almost “a cultural thing” within segments of the industry.

He characterizes the latest call as another attempt to target convenient scapegoats rather than addressing deeper systemic realities of supply and demand.

“The reason we have the industry structure we do is because the economies of size and cost efficiencies are such a powerful economic force,” Peels explains.

He confirms researchers have long studied market power, and while concentration does have a small negative price impact for producers, the efficiency and cost-savings from large-scale firms more than compensate. These benefits, he says, keep cattle prices higher for producers and beef prices lower for consumers than they would be with a less efficient structure.

Dissecting the economics of margin markets Peels explains why price changes in different parts of the beef supply chain — cow-calf, feeders, packers and retailers — don’t move in lockstep. He uses a “bungee cord” analogy to illustrate the complex, dynamic and time-lagged interactions linking cattle prices at the farm with retail beef prices.

“All cattle prices and beef prices are ultimately connected, but they’re not connected with a stick or a chain,” Peel summarizes.” They’re connected with a bungee cord. There’s just an enormous amount of dynamics in this thing.”

Regarding the foreign ownership debate, Peel says there is no evidence foreign ownership alters packer behavior within the U.S. marketplace. He emphasizes foreign firms have made large investments in U.S. facilities and continue to operate them by the same market logic that would govern domestic ownership.

He also points out it is unclear who else would be in a position to make such significant investments if these foreign companies were not involved. This pragmatic view suggests the ownership issue might be less important than is commonly believed, at least concerning everyday operations and market outcomes.

A Lot Hinges on Rebuilding the Cow Herd

In his latest article, “ All Bets are Off ,” Peel says: “The latest edition in the torrent of recent political attentions directed at the cattle and beef industry includes allegations of market manipulation against the beef packing industry. Beef packers are the one segment that has been most negatively impacted in the current market, incurring huge losses due to poor margins and limited cattle supplies.”

(Meat Institute)

Peel reports packers have been losing enormous amounts of money for about the past 18 to 24 months. According to the Meat Institute, packer margins slipped into the red in September 2024. Through the week ending Oct. 4, 2025, packer margins were a negative $126.50 per head, up slightly from a year earlier at a negative $125.65 per head, according to Sterling Profit Tracker. The outlook for the year is a negative $165.96 per head packer margin.

“There’s just simply not enough cattle for them to operate at cost efficient capacities,” Peel explains.

This negative trend was anticipated — the reduced supply of cattle has made it difficult for packing plants to function at cost-efficient capacities, leading to the accumulation of operating losses. Peel points out the combination of low unit margins and insufficient cattle supplies challenges the economic viability of packers, further illustrating the complexity of the current environment.

This decline in inventory is not the result of a single factor but is driven by several years of drought and other market pressures. It is clear high beef and cattle prices are a result of these tight supplies and, according to Peel, these high prices are likely to persist for several years. The industry simply cannot turn around production levels quickly, and it will take time — a matter of years, not months — for conditions to normalize.

“Using logic that only works in the office of a politician, packers are supposedly wielding unacceptable market power while paying record high cattle prices and artificially raising beef prices … but not enough to avoid losing a couple hundred dollars on every animal they process — certainly many millions of dollars,” Peel says. “If beef packers had any significant ability to exercise market power, I am certain that we would not have record high cattle prices and packers would not be losing money.”

Peel suggests the federal government attacks on beef packers are aided and supported by a vocal minority of the cattle industry and a few sympathetic politicians who view packers as a perennial villain and always worthy of attack anytime the opportunity is presented.

“The timing of such attacks this time is particularly puzzling as dismantling the packing industry would certainly jeopardize current record high cattle prices and the best economic returns most producers have ever enjoyed,” Peels says. “I guess some cowboys just can’t stand prosperity.”

R-CALF CEO Bill Bullard says the cattle market is fundamentally broken citing years of an inverse relationship between falling cattle prices and increasing retail beef prices when the only ingredient in beef is cattle. Read more about his perspective.

Patience not Politics

Beef and cattle prices, Peel notes, are historically high, a result of industry-wide low cattle inventory. Rebuilding the nation’s cow herd will be a long, slow process, keeping prices elevated for an extended period. And Peel says there is no definitive evidence producers are saving heifers to start the rebuilding process.

“2025 may prove to be technically the cyclical low, but 2026 is going to be barely bigger, if it is, and no growth in 2026 and probably none in 2027 ... it’s 2028 into 2029 before that turns into increased beef production,” Peel predicts.

He summarizes neither regulatory nor political action will can speed up the rebuilding process. It will take years of concerted effort, market healing and stability before the industry can expect a meaningful rebound in herd numbers and production — a reality that requires patience across the industry.

“There is absolutely nothing anybody can do to make beef prices go down, or cattle prices, other than maybe tear up the industry completely,” Peels says. “And if we tear up the industry, it’ll make cattle prices go down, but it won’t make beef prices go down. It’ll make beef prices go even higher for consumers and the only way to fix this is to give the industry time to rebuild, and that’s going to take two to four years if we ever get started.”

He says a majority of cattle producers understand the beef industry is extremely complex and all segments are critical and essential.

“Though the outcome of current political actions is uncertain, the potential for long-term harm to the industry is substantial,” Peel says. “Anytime politics trumps economics, the strong supply and demand fundamentals that have determined the outlook for the industry to this point become irrelevant. Expectations for prices and production going forward are now completely clouded…therefore… all bets are off.”

Your Next Read: You Be The Judge: The Big Bad Beef Packers Are On Trial

From Corn to Cattle: Farmers Pivot to Create Profit

Thu, 23 Oct 2025 21:03:47 GMT

With commodity prices under pressure and input costs on the rise, many row-crop farmers are evaluating their options and looking for new revenue opportunities in the process.

For Troy and Stacy Hadrick, that required making a bold shift in their farming operation about four years ago. They started converting much of their South Dakota cropland to pasture and expanding their cowherd.

It’s a path no one would describe as easy. But as Troy puts it, “You’re going to do something hard if you’re in agriculture, so choose your hard.”

The Hadricks, based near Faulkton, say moving away from commodity corn, soybeans and wheat to a more direct, value-added beef production model is giving them more control over their product and their bottom line.

“We want to take ourselves out of the ebbs and flows of the commodity market, and we believe our beef business is viable long-term,” says Troy.

The Hadricks’ business includes selling beef direct to nine restaurants, a caterer, grocery store and even to a gas station that sells high-end meat. Learn more at hadrickranch.com/

Farmers Put Marginal Crop Ground Into Grass
As the Hadricks tried to decide whether to focus more on their beef business, and less on commodity grains, two things encouraged them to move forward with cattle: the marketplace and some of their land that’s prone to erosion.

“We started thinking about what could we do on some of this crop ground to be better stewards of that land – to think about it in a different purpose,” Troy recalls.

When the Hadricks learned about a Ducks Unlimited (DU) program that fit with their goals, they signed on to convert an additional 250 acres of cropland to pasture to feed cattle.

“They help cover the cost of that land while it’s sitting idle for a couple years, allowing the grass to establish,” Troy notes.

Bruce Toay, manager of DU conservation programs in South Dakota, says the organization is working with 58 farmers across the as part of its Working Grasslands Partnership.

DU provides annual payments to farmers for the first three years of their participation in the program, based on local CRP rates. After establishment, cooperators are able to utilize the forage by haying or grazing for the remainder of the 10-year commitment.

Payment rates reflect the land quality: in southeast South Dakota, where soils are more productive, rates can be $200 or more per acre. In the northwest part of the state, rates are usually $20 to $30 per acre.

“We can help install pipelines and tanks, and sometimes drill wells—whatever it takes to ensure a reliable water source,” Toay adds. “You can’t have a good grazing plan without water.”

Currently, South Dakota farmers have enrolled 12,000 acres with DU, which aims to expand the program to 25,000 acres. The program goes through 2029.

“We’re really pushing to find more interested cooperators and get more acres back into grass,” says Toay.

Beyond DU, other organizations investing in habitat restoration in regions of the U.S. include Pheasants Forever and Quail Forever .

More Short-Term Opportunities Wanted
While the Hadricks are finding success in a long-term strategy of moving to beef production, most U.S. farmers are exploring short-term revenue streams rather than a permanent exit from row crops.

Jay Parsons, an agricultural economist at the University of Nebraska–Lincoln, says that for most farmers, converting cropland to permanent pasture rarely pencils out—unless the goal is to leave row-crop farming altogether and sell off equipment.

“Otherwise, it makes a lot more sense to go with annual forages, because it’s easier to switch back to crops when markets change,” he notes.

In some scenarios, farmers rent their ground in the fall for cattle to come in and graze cornstalks, adds Mary Drewnoski, UNL professor and beef systems Extension specialist. Another common practice is to charge beef producers a fee to graze cattle on cover crops.

“That’s probably the simplest thing for a farmer to do – have somebody else come in with cattle and graze the fields,” she says. “Basically, you give them access and get a paycheck.”

Grazing rates can vary significantly. Drewnoski says going rate in the eastern part of Nebraska is $10 to $15 an acre. In the western part of the state, farmers can charge in the neighborhood of $30 an acre.

“It’s a matter of supply and demand, and there’s more demand there,” Drewnoski explains.

She believes row-crop growers based in any area that also supports cattle production can likely find ways to add revenue from grazing cattle, either their own animals or through leasing ground to local beef producers.

The one thing she says is of utmost importance to do in the process is to develop a clear, written lease agreement spelling out the details that can keep everyone on the same page and relationships intact.

Key terms to define in a lease agreement include the rental rate, payment schedule, specific stocking rate, along with a clear outline of responsibilities for fencing, water, and general pasture maintenance. The agreement should also cover conditions for renewal or termination and any provisions for insurance, recommends Purdue University Extension.

When executed well, Drewnoski says partnerships between row-crop growers and livestock producers can be mutually rewarding. “There can be real beauty in this if you’re a crop farmer and you find the right cattleman to partner with,” she says. “It can open up doors for you both to benefit.”

Your next read: Breeding for New Markets: How University of Minnesota is Working to Boost the Oil Content in Soybeans

USDA Has No Plans for Financial Incentives to Rebuild Cattle Herd

Fri, 26 Sep 2025 16:10:55 GMT

Colin Woodall, CEO of the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA), says currently USDA does not have plans for an incentive program to help rebuild the beef cow herd.

Woodall joined Farm Journal’s Chip Flory on “AgriTalk” Sept. 25. He was quick to dispel the idea of a herd rebuilding or replacement heifer incentive program.

“There is no financial incentive program,” he says. “Regardless of what you’ve heard, or who you have heard it from, that program does not exist.”

Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins mentioned a potential incentive program in a news release on Sept. 21 .

“In addition, USDA will soon release a significant plan to help rebuild the American cattle supply, incentivizing our great ranchers, and driving a full-scale revitalization of the American beef industry,” the release said.

Woodall explains how quickly the statement in the press release spread, noting it “lit like a grass fire” throughout the cattle industry and markets.

He points out that while Rollins’ team has been in contact with NCBA about potential support for cattle producers, a direct financial incentive is not part of their current plans.

“You can never rule out what the federal government might do,” Woodall says, but also emphasizes that based on current conversations, no immediate program is forthcoming.

Woodall suggests alternatives might include “rolling back some regulations” and making it “easier on cattle producers from a regulatory burden standpoint.”

A concern for Woodall is the potential market impact of an incentive. He says the NCBA team has specifically visited with Rollins’ team about how comments like an incentive program to rebuild the cow herd can have a significant market impact.

He was clear NCBA is not advocating for a financial incentive program, saying: “This is not something that NCBA is pushing for. It’s not something that we are endorsing.”

Thursday, Rollins was in Kansas City at the Ag Outlook Forum hosted by the Agricultural Business Council of Kansas City. During her comments she said because the cattle industry has seen a big drop in producers over the last decade USDA is committed to rebuilding it.

“Low inventory and high demand is not sustainable if we want to feed ourselves,” Rollins says.

She did announce there is no current plan to offer payments to beef producers.

“No plan for direct payments is even under consideration,” she explains. “The government getting involved in markets can easily mess things up.”

The plan will focus more on risk-mitigation tools and hope to attract the new generation of farmers to enter the cattle industry. She says more details will come in mid-October.

Your Next Read: The Battle at the Border

Are We Seeing Signs of Herd Rebuilding?

Mon, 15 Sep 2025 13:46:26 GMT

The U.S. beef cow inventory has reached its lowest point since 1962, marking what appears to be the bottom of the current cattle cycle. Tight supply is driving the strong pricing environment beef producers are enjoying today.

“For cow-calf producers right now, things are as good as they’ve probably ever been,” says Troy Rowan, University of Tennessee assistant professor. “Even though things are really good, producers are conscientious and vigilant about potential challenges,” Rowan summarizes.

Agreeing with Rowan, South Dakota cattleman Ken Odde adds while profits are currently strong, inflation quickly erodes economic gains. He stresses the importance of risk management and diversification.

Early Signs of Herd Rebuilding?

This is the million-dollar question: Are there encouraging signs of expansion?

“The beef industry is not currently in herd expansion mode, with producers hesitant to retain heifers due to high costs and economic uncertainties,” says Dave Weaber, Terrain senior animal protein analyst.

In Drovers State of Industry Report to be released the week of Sept. 15, we breakdown the July USDA cattle inventory and cattle on feed reports. While the USDA reports showed the smallest U.S. herd in history and continuing tightening numbers on feed, analysts predict producers have not experienced the highest cattle prices, yet.

“Our national herd size has the industry at an interesting point,” Rowan says. “Prices are at all-time highs, inputs are reasonable and more cow-calf enterprises are profitable than ever. When the industrywide rebuild will happen remains up in the air, but producers are keeping in mind that the high-flying industry right now is not going to stick around forever. They’re starting to adopt new technologies, leveling up their crossbreeding programs and expand opportunities for non-cattle related income on their ranches.”

Weaber adds producers need to be intentional about herd expansion, understanding the financial implications of adding new cattle.

Beef-on-Dairy Fills the Beef Supply Gap

“The current dynamics of supply is going to be a challenge,” says Jarrod Gillig, Cargill senior vice president, managing director for beef.

Gillig summarizes the cattle industry is experiencing a critical period of transition. He doesn’t expect the cow herd to return to previous peak levels of 32 million head. Instead, he predicts the gap in supply will be filled by beef-on-dairy calves.

Nick Hardcastle, Cargill senior director of meat grading and technical specialist, explains how the beef-on-dairy calves are an upgrade to the traditional Holstein steer and the positive impact they are making on beef supply.

“Beef-on-dairy is more desirable because it helped overcome several Holstein difficulties,” he says. “Improvements include red meat yield — more meat to a consumer — as well as improved acceptance in branded programs.”

Hardcastle says the beef-on-dairy cattle are filling the supply gap by filling pens in the Plains states where feeders are needed, and they are widely accepted by feeders and packers.

Defining Future Beef Producer Success

Odde says the beef industry is not just surviving but positioning itself for significant transformation.

“Producers who remain flexible, technologically savvy and strategic in their approach will be best positioned to thrive in this changing environment,” he says.

Weaber agrees saying successful producers will be those who can adapt, manage costs effectively and align themselves with evolving market trends.

“Don’t let cost get away from you,” Weaber warns, emphasizing that “being a low-cost, high-productivity producer means you get to make money seven, eight or nine years of the cycle.”

He stresses the importance of understanding financial implications, particularly during market transitions.

“If we’re not working on the business, we can’t work in the business,” Weaber adds, summarizing his philosophy regarding producers’ need to adopt more strategic, data-driven approaches.

The State of the Beef Industry Report includes input from nearly 500 beef producers. The annual report provides information to help producers when making decisions. Click here to download the full report.

Your Next Read: 47% of Beef Producers Plan to Increase Herd Numbers

Fast Delivery, Competitive Prices and Simplicity Drives FBN Customer Satisfaction

Tue, 17 Jun 2025 19:13:33 GMT

A one-stop shop for farm and ranch input needs, Farmers Business Network (FBN) serves more than 13,000 livestock producers from across the U.S. FBN is expanding its livestock offering to include Ridley Feeds, Farmers First Mineral, fencing supplies, equine products as well as pet care.

Crop and cattle producer Kyle Burk, Burk Land & Cattle in Marionville, Mo., has been a customer of FBN for two years. Initially using FBN for its competitive chemical pricing, Burk now purchases approximately 90% of his mineral products for his livestock through the company.

“We background a lot of cattle for Joplin Regional Stockyards,” Burk says. “I feel the cattle have gained tremendously better with the FBN mineral program, whether it be fly control or other attribute.”

Burk manages a 2,000-acre farm primarily focused on feed production for his family’s stock cows, dairy and grow yard. He says FBN has become an integral part of his agricultural strategy — providing not just products, but comprehensive support across purchasing, financing and consulting.

“The website is extremely easy to use,” Burk explains.

The platform’s intuitive design allows him to quickly locate and order the exact items he needs for his diverse operation.

Customer service is another key to Burk’s FBN experience. He appreciates how the company proactively contacts customers within 24 hours of an unusual order to confirm it’s correct.

Beyond product ordering, Burk has also utilized FBN’s financial services. After an accident last year, he turned to FBN classifieds to purchase a replacement silage truck and secured financing through FBN within a day. The rate, he says, was more competitive than his local bank.

Burk says he recommends and appreciates the FBN professionals who have helped him with purchasing decisions. When drought led him to switch to conventional corn, he worked FBN’s chemical specialist for product support.

“It’s probably the cleanest corn we’ve ever had,” Burk says.

Expanding Livestock Catalog

Livestock is FBN’s fastest-growing segment, powered by producer trust in speed, value and reliable delivery. According to Emily Zollinger, FBN director of livestock, the platform’s latest offerings include:

Ridley Feeds (a division of Alltech) : Sweetlix mineral and tubs now available with live, daily pricing
Farmers First Mineral : A new, simplified line of cattle mineral dynamic pricing and clear online descriptions
Fencing Supplies : Including barbed wire, woven wire, pipe, cable and other fencing tools
Equine Care : Products for grooming, nutrition, deworming, hoof care and vaccinations
Pet Health: Vaccines, parasite control, nutrition, and prescriptions filled with vet approval

“We’re building a marketplace where ranchers and livestock producers get not only great prices, but convenience and service they can count on,” Zollinger says.

(FBN)

Why Producers Choose FBN

Initially founded in 2014, FBN expanded into livestock in 2020. Today, the platform is designed to make purchasing fast, transparent and farm-friendly.

Key features include:

Free membership
Build your own online order
Fast shipping (typically two business days)
Nationwide logistics network across the U.S. and Canada
Flexible support ranging from self-service to dedicated account reps
Educational tools including blogs and resource hubs
Financing options with competitive rates
Prescription support working directly with your vet to verify orders

Zollinger says FBN’s mission is to deliver prosperity to family farmers and ranchers through every season, every segment and every challenge.

“We’re not just selling inputs,” she summarizes. “We’re giving farmers and ranchers a platform — with tools, pricing transparency and support they can build a business on.”

Your Next Read: 5 Steps to Successful Transition Planning

Did the U.S. Cattle Inventory Shrink Even More in a Year? 60% of Ag Economists Think So

Fri, 31 Jan 2025 19:49:00 GMT

Last year’s USDA Cattle Inventory Report showed the smallest cattle herd in 73 years . And with no strong signs of rebuilding underway, along with strong prices providing no incentive to retain heifers, agricultural economists think the U.S. cattle inventory has shrunk even more since last year.

Last year, USDA’s Cattle Inventory report showed as of Jan. 1, 2024, the All Cattle and Calves inventory was 87.15 million head, a 2% reduction in just a year. Ahead of the 2025 report, the January Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor asked economists to project inventory as of Jan. 1, 2025.

50% said they expect inventory to fall to 86 to 86.9 million head.
20 percent expect inventory to remain similar to levels last year
An additional 20% think inventory will rise to 88 to 88.9 million head.
And 10% think cattle numbers could to 85 to 85.9 million head.

What would change a producer’s minds and give them confidence to grow their herds again? That’s exactly what we asked in the latest Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor, which is an anonymous survey of nearly 70 ag economists from across the country. While some said it will just take time, others pointed to the economics of strong cow-calf returns, weaker fed cattle prices and lower prices at the sale barn.

Other economists said:

“Today’s high prices are certainly incentive, along with the expectation of moderate feed costs.”
“Government policies, global demand, price cycle”
“Better spring forage supplies could be the most important factor in growth. More quality labor could be critical, too.”
“Confidence that the general economy outlook is positive and that there are unlikely to be negative policy shocks. And, of course, there has to be adequate forage.”
“Improved weather pattern in the West, along with profitable margins.”

Record-High Prices

January Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lindsey Pound )

Cattle prices continued to hit records this week. And with no signs of those record prices slowing down, it’s a question of how high these prices will actually go.

Is it the supply side or the demand side driving prices? According to economists in the survey, it’s both. And that’s why out of the 10 major commodities, economists are most bullish on cattle in 2025.

January Monthly Monitor

(Lindsey Pound )

Advice to Manage Risk
Even with no end in sight, the Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor asked economists, “What advice you would offer beef producers to consider to make sure they are in the right position to take advantage of high prices now and to be prepared for when the market changes?” Here’s what they had to say:

“Stay sold forward, and avoid over-leveraging.”
“To just keeping looking at their genetics, retaining those with the best traits to continually improve herd quality and meat marketability.”
“For those with adequate forage availability, the near-term outlook for cattle profitability is very positive. Remember, though, that all good things come to an end—those who wait too long may only have more animals to market when prices turn back down again.”
“Consider all options for their risk management strategy, including both insurance products, futures, options, or other strategies.”
“You must have something to sell.”
“Today, there is more downside price risk for cattle prices. Risk management against a significant decline in future cattle prices should be considered today.”
“Hedge sales and inputs both. Hedge the crush!”

Oregon Ranchers Are Continuing to Battle Grueling Wildfires as Financial Losses Mount

Wed, 07 Aug 2024 17:11:49 GMT

As of Friday, more than 1.1 million acres has burned in Oregon. Lightning continues to spark new fires and with the flames still not under control, it will go down as one of the most devastating wildfire fires in the state’s history.

Clint Sexson ranches in eastern Oregon. He says between cattle lost and grazing areas burned, it’s been a grueling summer. The exact livestock losses are unknown at this time.

“I don’t even want to speculate,” Sexson says. “I mean, the one that’s pretty public is that the 300 head in the Durkee Fire that were lost,” Sexson says. “I know one producer who has lost probably hundreds.”

That particular fire, the Durkee Fire, has been a monster. At 86% contained, it’s already scorched 295,000 acres.

Plenty of Fuel for Fires

Just this week, lightning sparked more fires. Sexson says the reason the fires have been so bad is the amount of grass available to fuel the fires.

“There’s more fuel on the ground,” Sexson says. “Some of these areas have burned before. There hasn’t necessarily been a clean up after a burn, so there’s just a lot of fuel.”

A Devastating Loss of Grass to Graze

The livestock losses are heartbreaking and severe, but the amount of grass burned is causing concern in the state. As the fires rage, the losses of valuable grazing ground are mounting, which impacts livestock producers across the state.

“This part of the world is different,” Sexson says. “A lot of people don’t feed cows, but maybe 30, 60 days a year. The rest of the year, we are grazing cattle. It’s a budgetary thing and a management thing that they will have to work through. Emotionally, it’s tough on those people, especially those generational ranches.”

Sexson was fortunate. On July 20, as the fires raged and closed in on his land, he was able to get cattle out thanks to fellow ranchers who showed up with trucks and trailers.

“I work for Select Sires and every one of those trucks that showed up, they were all customers,” he says, as his voice cracks and tears fill his eyes. “We got the cattle out and right back to a customer’s feedlot. They were ready for them, and we were pretty fortunate.”

An Emotional Sale of Support

That emotion was felt late last week as Superior Livestock Auction sold special benefit lots as part of their video sale in Winnemucca, Nev. This was an example of ranchers helping ranchers. That money went to the Oregon Fire Relief Fund, which will help those producers in need.

“These are primarily purebred breeders who have made donations in sale credit or semen credit,” Sexson says. “They’re not directly focused on their customers alone. They’re just focused on the general beef industry in Oregon and the devastation some of these people are dealing with. I know two or three people who had their entire ranches burned by the fires. They may not have lost a cow, but it burnt all their private grazing ground.”

The special sale was a touching gesture, as the ranching community comes together at a time of need and the fires continue to burn. Emotions are high, losses are mounting and cattle producers impacted are feeling the financial pain.

Young Farmer Cashes In On Corn With Cattle

Mon, 07 Aug 2023 15:10:31 GMT

At a mere 28 years old, Tony Schwarck jumped headfirst into a high-effort and high-risk business venture. After a decade of working with his parents and grandparents on their row-crop operation, he knew his future in farming would need to take a different path. Farmland and cash rents were sky-high in his competitive area of northern Iowa, so expanding their corn and soybean acreage to support three families was a big hill to climb.

Tony and his wife, Aarika, began researching ventures to complement their existing operation and generate new income. They had two resources during the winter months—time and corn. The couple explored several diversification options , but it was beef finishing that finally penciled out. The Riceville, Iowa, couple became farmer feeders, and in that first year, 2013, they marketed 300 beef heifers.

“We wanted to utilize our homegrown corn,” Tony says. “A young producer has time and not a lot of equity, so livestock is a great fit. We take the corn we raise, feed it to cattle and they are giving us a byproduct we can apply to our fields to help us grow better corn. It’s really added value to our acres of corn, and now we concentrate on marketing corn through cattle.”

This year, the Schwarcks are on track to market 2,500 head of cattle. They have also expanded their crop business to 1,200 acres of corn and soybeans, up from the first 160 acres Tony rented on his own in 2006.

Tony is armed with considerable management skills and sheer nerve. His ability to reimagine and build a venture from the ground up are just a few of the reasons he earned the 2019 Tomorrow’s Top Producer Horizon Award .

“Tony’s work ethic and decision-making abilities are unparalleled,” says Robert Williams, a CPA with Hogan Hanson and the Schwarcks’ long-time adviser.

Analyze. Monitor. Act. When the Schwarcks decided to become farmer feeders, they faced a big challenge: a lack of capital. They knew their plan could work. They just needed to get the bank on board.

This new venture created an opportunity to find a new lending partner. Their lender, Eric Paulson, helped them restructure debt and set them up on a borrowing base. Each month, the Schwarcks and Paulson analyze that borrowing base.

“This monthly review has made me a better manager, as it allows me to constantly know our financial numbers,” Tony says. “Every month Eric is looking at our numbers. If we have a good month, he points out what we did correctly. If we have an off month, we can identify problems and potential problems a lot quicker.”

“Tony and Aarika have utilized timely financial analysis toward managing their growth and improving efficiencies,” says Paulson, senior agricultural loan officer with Wells Fargo in Mason City, Iowa. “They are constantly asking for ways to improve both day-to-day and strategic operations.”

Aarika has taken over the farm’s record keeping and accounting. She created two accounts, one for cattle and one for grain, so they could properly assess financial decisions.

Numbers were always the basis of decisions for the Schwarck family, starting with Tony’s grandfather, Chris Schwarck and father, Dan Schwarck. “When we had meetings, even when I was young, the numbers were discussed,” Tony says.

This process of sharing financials with successors is key in making successful management transitions, says Dick Wittman, a family business consultant and Idaho farmer.

“Doing so exposes your successor to your business culture,” Wittman says. “Plus, someone wanting to join the operation needs to know the scale and scope of the business.”

“Feeding cattle has made me a better farmer.”

Comfortable Cows. Strict financial analysis led the Schwarcks to expand their finishing operation in 2017. They built a state-of-the-art cattle facility that houses 600 head. The building’s monoslope pitched roof and curtains allow sunlight and cool air in but keep snow and rain out.

“We can can’t completely control the environment, but we can really help it,” Tony says.

The Schwarck team uses a cloud-based software program, Performance Beef Livestock Analytics, to track data such as the cattle’s weights, feed ingredients and costs. Every day the cattle’s rations are automatically recorded using an iPad linked with the scale on the feed truck.

“This lets us track performance and weight,” Tony says. “We keep track of all costs, including freight, vaccines and vet expenses, death loss and any money we have invested in a hedge account. This allows us to be current on breakevens and billing.”

Typically, the feeder calves arrive at Schwarck Farms straight from a breeding ranch and weigh 550 lb. to 650 lb. Around 220 days later, they are ready to be sold, weighing around 1,400 lb.

The Schwarcks’ row-crop operation provides 60% of the corn they feed to the cows. The balance of their corn production is sold to local ethanol plants, from which they buy distillers’ grain.

To reduce costs, the Schwarcks traded their hopper trailer for a belt trailer so they can haul corn to the ethanol plant and reload it with distillers’ grain for the feed yard. “This alone saves our operation roughly $800 per week,” he says.

This constant eye on costs helps Tony smartly buy feeder cattle. “That’s one thing I have to work on,” he says. “If the numbers don’t work—pass. They sell feeder cattle every day of the year.”

Constantly, Tony sees how his experience as a farmer feeder improves his crop operation and vice versa. “Raising a market steer is the same philosophy as growing an acre of corn,” he says. “It’s the little things that count—that’s what separates big yields from small yields. Feeding cattle has made me a better farmer.”

For instance, having interests on both the supply and demand sides of the marketing ledger provides perspective. “Farmers are sitting on corn waiting for a better market, and we are moving that corn all the time and catching profit on it with the cattle,” Tony says.

For grain marketing, Tony develops what he calls a “strike zone” for prices. “When the market rises over our cost of production, I start making small sales. As the market continues to rise, I continue to sell until we are 60% sold,” he says.

Time To Delegate. As Tony has shifted into his leadership role, he’s assessed how he spends his time. “Being a young producer, I felt I needed to be the one who planted, fed the cattle, sprayed, etc.,” he says. “Now I know employees place a stronger bond with their jobs when they realize they have purpose and take pride in their work.”

Beyond family members, Tony employs two full-time and two part-time team members. His goal is to align employee strengths with daily roles and to provide a professional environment.

Tony says he’s lucky to have both his father and grandfather as mentors because they fall on two ends of the spectrum when it comes to risk. “I’ve learned from my dad to not bite off more than you can chew, and I’ve learned from my grandpa an opportunity doesn’t present itself very often, so be ready,” Tony says.

Looking forward, Tony is focused on fine-tuning his cost of production and maximizing profit.

“We’re margin operators in every aspect of our operation—whether that’s growing an acre of corn or producing a market-ready calf. The margin is thin, so we want to maximize every dollar we spend.”

Watch a video about Tony Schwarck’s operation and learn more about the Tomorrow’s Top Producer Horizon Award at bit.ly/Tony-Schwarck

A Snapshot of Schwarck Farms

A Family Affair: Tony Schwarck is a fourth-generation farmer in Riceville, Iowa. In 2004, he joined his family farm, which includes his parents, Dan and Laurie Schwarck, and grandparents, Chris and Ann Schwarck. “It’s a father’s dream to have your son follow in your footsteps,” Dan says. Tony and his wife, Aarika have a daughter, Annalee, 2.

Crop Farming: Tony’s crop operation includes 1,200 acres of corn and soybeans, while the family’s combined operation is 2,600 acres. The Schwarcks analyze soil and yield maps to set yield goals. Last year, they overhauled their 16-row corn planter with high-speed planting capabilities. “It was almost like getting a bigger planter since we can cover more acres in day,” Tony says.

Beef Finishing: In 2013, Tony and Aarika started a beef finishing operation. In the first year, the couple marketed 300 beef heifers. In 2019, they will market 2,500 head of cattle. Nearly all the cattle they finish are Black Angus, and they use the Iowa Cattle Marketing Group to negotiate the best price for fat cattle.

Leadership: The Schwarcks support many local organizations and causes, such as the Riceville Fire Department, Riceville First Foundation, Wapsie Great Western Bike Trail and the Riceville FFA Chapter. They are also members of the Iowa Cattlemen’s Association.

Photos: Pat Lichty, Top Producer

Pasture to Plate: A Culture-Driven Beef Business

Wed, 26 Jul 2023 17:09:52 GMT

The Ducheneaux family reconnects consumers with their food source

Kelsey Ducheneaux-Scott sat on her front porch, stared out across rolling pastures and thought, “What the hell did I do?” She had just heaved box after box into freezers in the living room, kitchen and laundry room — carefully dispensing 1,700 lb. of ground beef.

Exhausted from the haul (and hoping the circuits wouldn’t blow due to strategically placed freezers) Ducheneaux-Scott couldn’t believe the sheer amount of work before her. How was she going to sell so much grass-fed burger in three months, before her next butcher appointment? Anxiety and stress seeped in during that cold March night in 2020. Little did she know how quickly that product would move.

“COVID hit and there was no beef in any of our stores,” Ducheneaux-Scott recalls. “We sold out of that 1,700 lb. in a matter of three weeks. People realized how easily local grocery stores can be disrupted here in rural South Dakota.”

PASTURE TO PLATE

With a focus on feeding those around her, Ducheneaux-Scott is leading a transformation of her family’s operation. DX Ranch was established in the 1930s near Eagle Butte, S.D., on the Cheyenne River Sioux Indian Reservation. It began with beef cattle and draft horses.

Today, Ducheneaux-Scott and her husband, Monte Scott, work alongside her family raising quarter horses and 280 head of cow-calf pairs in a regenerative production system.

“I am a fourth-generation rancher on DX Ranch, and I’m the 125th generation to steward this landscape,” Ducheneaux-Scott says. “We’ve focused on ensuring we’re not just thinking about the livestock above ground but also thinking about the livestock below ground.”

FATHER-DAUGHTER DUO

For her entire life, Ducheneaux-Scott has worked alongside her father, Zach Ducheneaux. That was until early 2021, when Ducheneaux was selected by the Biden administration to serve as the Farm Service Agency administrator (he received the call for the position while they were at the sale barn).

Luckily, Ducheneaux had prepared his daughter to be a leader on the ranch and in life. They are members of the Lakota tribe, which is a matriarchal society.

“My dad never let me think I couldn’t do something because I was a girl,” Ducheneaux-Scott says. “He empowered me to believe I could do things better because I was a girl and had a different perspective.”

After college, Ducheneaux-Scott wanted to be a rancher and bought into the family’s cowherd in 2016.

“I was obsessive in watching those calves grow that year,” she says. “I might as well have had names and birth certificates for every calf.”

After selling that calf crop, Ducheneaux-Scott headed back to the ranch and pondered the future.

“I drove through two counties that face food insecurity,” she says. “I thought, golly, the system is so broken. We have up to 80,000 head of cattle grazing on 3.2 million acres here on the Cheyenne River Sioux Indian Reservation, and there isn’t any local beef being packaged and made available for purchase. The beef grown here is phenomenal, but none of us get to actually eat it.”

At home, she scribbled down a bunch of ideas and started a business plan. That plan morphed into DX Beef , which has a simple mission: Provide nutritious and local beef that improves its communities.

The direct-to-consumer business featuring their 100% grass-fed beef has expanded in the past two years and is helping the family move away from the commodity market model.

“For the first 90 years of our existence, we’d largely been victim to the commodity markets just like everyone else,” Ducheneaux says. “Behind the effort of Kelsey, in 2020, for the first time, we sold more beef in the box than we did on the hoof. A tremendous advocate for buying, selling and serving

locally, she’s found a way to provide healthier, grass-finished beef to our fellow reservation residents at a price they can afford.”

In 2019, the family sold 12 head of cattle through their business. In 2020, they sold close to 80. This year the total will top 110.

All beef is processed and mostly sold through their online store. To meet local needs, it is sold by the pound or portion of the whole beef. They even do wholesale orders for nearby restaurants.

CULTURE AND TRADITION

The hurdles of small-scale direct marketing are difficult to overcome. Yet Ducheneaux-Scott is seeing great success thanks to her marketing and organizational skills. Through storytelling, which is rooted in their Lakota culture, the family uses technology to share the story of their ranch and products.

“Family comes before the dollar in this operation,” Ducheneaux says. “We’re not solely about monetizing the value of that product, and we realize there are other values to our beef.”

Their story is shaped by their love and respect for the 7,000 acres of tribal land they manage through a tribal lease.

“I’m a grass and soil nerd,” Ducheneaux-Scott says. “Soil health is so critical to a resilient ecosystem. Our grazing system is focused on mimicking nature. This ecosystem evolved from having cloven-hoofed bison and other wildlife graze at a pace that allowed for a robust rest period, so we practice rotational grazing.”

The DX Ranch herd is an Angus base, influenced with breeds that will help the cattle handle the sometimes-brutal central South Dakota climate, Ducheneaux-Scott says. From changing their calving season to May to decrease cattle stress to steadily increasing soil health, the Ducheneaux family aims to work with Mother Nature.

“We have flexibility in our management so we can listen to what the landscape is telling us because she knows better than we do,” Ducheneaux-Scott says. “We

are simply another biological species that’s a part of this greater ecosystem.”

Listen as Kelsey Ducheneaux-Scott discusses her operation with Andrew McCrea on the “Farming the Countryside” podcast:

OTHERS BEFORE ONESELF

As a producer, business owner and member of her nation, Ducheneaux-Scott says she is driven by the opportunity and honor to feed others.

“I’ve come to appreciate having someone tell say your beef tasted good or how they brought their family together around our product,” she says. “Those are the experiences that make feeding cows in a blizzard, slopping through the mud to check calves and sleepless nights all worth it.”

Snapshot of DX Ranch

Operation: DX Ranch includes quarter horses and 280 head of cow-calf pairs in a regenerative production system on the Cheyenne River Sioux Reservation near Eagle Butte, S.D. The ranch is also home to DX Beef, a direct-to-consumer business featuring their 100% grass-fed beef.

Family: Following in the footsteps of her father, Zach Ducheneaux, Kelsey Ducheneaux-Scott is the fourth generation of her family to ranch. She and her husband, Monte Scott, work with several members of her family in the operation.

Leadership: Ducheneaux-Scott is the director of programs for the Intertribal Agriculture Council, which provides a voice for the Native American community on ag policy and programs. In 2021, Ducheneaux was selected to lead the Farm Service Agency, where he oversees 10,000 employees.

Travel to Gettysburg, S.D., and virtually visit DX Ranch.

North Dakota Ranchers Should Prepare for Flooding

Mon, 27 Mar 2023 19:20:06 GMT

Ranchers should make plans for moving feed and livestock to higher ground before flooding this spring, according to North Dakota State University Extension specialists.

The latest flood forecast shows a high probability of moderate to major spring flooding along the Red River Basin, as well as minor to moderate flooding potential along portions of the Souris River. In addition to riverine flooding, there is the potential for overland flooding due to snowpack across the state. The risk of flooding will be dictated by additional precipitation and the melt/thaw cycle. Due to overland flooding, many areas that typically do not flood may be flooded this year.

“Floodwaters can rise quickly, potentially cutting off access to feed and/or water sources for livestock,” warns Miranda Meehan, NDSU Extension livestock environmental stewardship specialist. “Beef cattle out on pasture are especially susceptible to displacement by flooding.

“Although cattle will move to higher ground if possible, they may move to areas where rescue is not possible. Trying to rescue cattle and other large livestock in deep-water situations is dangerous and can be deadly to animals and people. Plans should be made weeks ahead of a potential disaster, with consideration given to pens, loading facilities, transportation, evacuation routes and final destination of livestock.”

Floodwaters often prevent producers from reaching feed supplies either directly or through damage to roads.

“Having feed supplies on hand is important because feed assistance may not be available during a flood,” says Karl Hoppe, Extension livestock systems specialist at NDSU’s Carrington Research Extension Center. “Ranchers should pre-select sites on high ground for hay, emergency water supplies, and fencing supplies or panels.”

Ranchers also need to be aware that moving feed may cause problems. For example, moving big round hay bales to higher ground can result in hay loss because twine- or net-wrapped bales may be frozen to the ground. Also, road weight restrictions can limit ranchers’ ability to haul in new feed if they use coproducts such as beet pulp, beet tailings or distillers grains to feed their cattle.

Hoppe advises ranchers to ensure accessible storage facilities and an adequate supply of feedstuffs.

If forage resources are inaccessible for small ruminants of sheep and goats, have a plan for grain supplementation at or near the barn. Springtime has vulnerable ewes and does and their offspring that can be managed by meeting energy requirements needed during lactation if flooding occurs.

“Consider where barns are located when being used for livestock shelter,” says Zac Carlson, NDSU Extension beef specialist. “If a barn is located in a flood plain like most old barns built close to water, then provide an escape route for the cattle to leave if an overnight flood occurs. Do not shut the barn door unless you check livestock every few hours.”

While not all areas will experience flooding, mud will likely be an issue on many farms and ranches this spring.

Mud can reduce the insulation value of hair coats, increase energy requirements, and increase the potential for foot rot and other health issues.

Mud also may chill or trap newborn calves and lambs, and can carry a variety of pathogens that can affect calves and lambs directly or through contact with dirty udders.

There are few options once muddy conditions are in place; therefore, preventive practices are key.

These recommendations can aid in reducing muddy conditions:

Scrape lots to maintain a 3% to 5% slope away from the feed bunk.
Reshape mounds to ensure quick drainage.
Move livestock to temporary feeding areas such as stockpiled pastures with adequate drainage or fields containing crop residue such as corn stalks. Be aware of the high risk of soil compaction when placing livestock in saturated crop fields in the spring and the potential for challenging planting conditions.

“The potential for high water tables during spring thaw can cause issues for North Dakota livestock owners who have dirty-water containment ponds and manure stacking areas,” says Mary Keena, Extension livestock environmental management specialist based at NDSU’s Carrington Research Extension Center.

During spring thaw, dirty-water containment ponds should be inspected daily.

If your manure management dirty-water containment pond looks like it is going to overtop, is showing signs of major bank erosion or is being encroached upon by floodwaters, contact the North Dakota Department of Environmental Quality, Division of Water Quality at 701-328-5210 to report these issues before they happen.

“Ranches should evaluate their potential for flooding and plan accordingly,” says Keena. “If you do not have access to higher ground, you may need to consider moving livestock off-site until the risk of flooding subsides. If you need help evaluating options, contact your NDSU Extension agent or emergency management office.”

Visit NDSU Extension’s flood website at www.ndsu.edu/agriculture/ag-hub/ag-topics/disasters/flood for more information and resources to aid in flood preparations on your operation.

Restocking Will Be a Slow-Go

Fri, 17 Feb 2023 20:59:09 GMT

Decimated by a second mega-drought this century, America’s ranchers are struggling to survive. Last year’s perfect storm of economic and weather-related challenges led to the fourth consecutive year of declining cattle inventories.

The US Department of Agriculture’s annual cattle inventory report, issued Jan. 31, confirmed the dramatic herd liquidation analysts expected. The total inventory of cattle and calves was 3% lower, dropping under 90 million head for the first time since 2015.

More importantly, America’s beef cow herd declined below the prior cycle low in 2014 to 28.9 million head, the smallest since 1962. Last year saw 13% of the beef cow herd sent to slaughter, the highest percentage since 1984, resulting in an inventory reduction of 1.06 million beef cows (3.6%), with the 12 states making up the Central Plains hit hard.

Those 12 states – TX, OK, KS, AR, MO, CO, NE, IA, SD, ND, MT and WY – account for 62% of the total inventory of beef cows, and last year’s liquidation of 711,000 cows accounted for 67% of the nation’s total decline. Only two of those 12 states saw beef cow numbers increase, Missouri and Colorado, but combined the two only recorded a total increase of 8,000 head.

That the southern half of the Central Plains were hardest hit by drought is reflected in declining cow inventories. Oklahoma recorded the largest decline of beef cows at 140,000, followed by Texas at 125,000, Kansas at 106,000, and Nebraska at 99,000. Those four states, then, accounted for 44% of the nation’s total reduction of beef cows.

Further zeroing in on the drought, Oklahoma appears to have been the bullseye. The Sooner state recorded a 7% decline in beef cows and an 11% decline in total inventory, the largest of the leading cattle states. Kansas also saw a 7% decline in beef cows with a 4% decline in total inventory.

RESTOCKING TIMELINE

While shrinking cattle inventories will lead to higher prices, ranchers remain at the mercy of the weather. Any thoughts of restocking are on hold until rain replenishes the forage supply. Hay stocks in January were already at a 50-year low which means the cupboard is bare as the 2023 growing season begins.

“Even if the rains come and ranchers can begin to restock, there’s indications that many who liquidated their herds over the past two years have no intention of getting back in the business,” says Sterling Marketing president John Nalivka. “Those that plan to restock are likely to take a very cautionary approach to herd rebuilding.”

That’s one reason Nalivka and other industry analysts believe restocking this cycle will be slow, with further inventory declines likely in 2024 and 2025.

“The industry slaughtered 37.3% of its Jan. 1, 2022, inventory last year, the highest number since 1978,” Nalivka says. “Last year we slaughtered 52% of the heifers weighing more than 500 pounds, the highest percentage since 2004. The recent inventory reported heifers weighing more than 500 pounds down 4% and the lowest since 2014. Additionally, the number of beef replacement heifers was down 6% and the lowest since 2011. So, the total number of heifers in the inventory was nearly one million head fewer.”

Which suggests restocking will be a slow-go even with drought relief. Some heifers that were slated as feeder heifers could still be shifted back to the breeding herds this spring, but most analysts see that as unlikely. That suggests this fall will be the next opportunity to retain heifer calves, which seems more likely given the drought recovery most regions will require. That time table puts heifers retained this fall on schedule to calve in the spring of 2025, reinforcing the idea that any expansion won’t appear until at least 2026.

Such a scenario means calf crops will decline this year and next, and heifer retention will continue to tighten the available supplies of feeder cattle and calves.

Tackle Tough Weeds in Pastures Like you Would in Corn and Soybeans

Tue, 24 Aug 2021 16:02:27 GMT

Farmers routinely tackle tough weed problems in corn and soybeans, understanding that crops yield better with less competition for moisture, nutrients and sunlight.

The same is true for forages, according to Scott Flynn. He encourages producers to view their operations as profit-per-acre businesses, rather than focusing on the price they get for an individual animal.

The shift in mindset requires producers to evaluate the number of pounds of beef they produce per acre of pasture.

“Forages are the cheapest source of energy available and key to our economic success,” explains Flynn, a Missouri-based field scientist for Corteva Agriscience.

He estimates it costs 45 cents a day to feed a cow or steer on pasture, while feeding hay costs considerably more. It’s why Flynn encourages producers to evaluate their pasture weed-control measures.

“For every pound of weed pressure in a field, you remove 1 lb. to 1.5 lb. of forage production, so losses can quickly add up,” he explains.

“By eliminating weeds, the producer often has more options. They could choose to increase the number of cattle on pasture to take advantage of the increased forage available, or they might extend the grazing period further into the fall and save some dollars in feed costs,” he adds.

Here are five weed-control considerations that can help you add more pounds of beef per acre.

1. Identify and address the specific weed species in your fields. This is the single most important step to take, says Glenn Detweiler, North Carolina Extension area agent. He says to walk pastures several times over the course of the growing season to identify and locate weeds.

Record the weeds you have, along with when and where you see them, which can help you evaluate how well your weed-control program is working. In the process, keep in mind that weed species differ on when they emerge. For instance, biennial and winter annual weeds begin to emerge in late summer and fall, notes J.D. Green, University of Kentucky Extension weed scientist.

“You can treat some problem weeds, like musk thistle and poison hemlock, into October and sometimes even November as long as daytime temperatures are above 60 degrees F°,” he says. “2,4-D does a pretty good job on those weeds when they’re in the younger vegetative growth stages and actively growing.”

If not treated this fall, address cool-season weedy species in the early spring while plants are still small, adds Daren Redfearn, University of Nebraska Extension forage and crop residue specialist.

2. Consider interseeding to thicken forage stands. Green says that summer annual weeds, such as common ragweed and cocklebur and even weedy grasses like foxtail, are indications you may have a thin stand of desirable forages. “If you can get out there this fall and interseed, that’s ideal for thickening up desirable forage grasses so they can better compete with weeds next season,” he says. “Spring interseeding is a good time for thickening grass forage stands with clovers,” he adds.

3. Don’t neglect soil fertility. Forages with adequate fertility and soil pH levels are healthier, and therefore, more competitive against opportunistic weeds, Green says.

4. Evaluate your grazing practices and pasture rotation schedule. Over-grazing weakens forages and opens the door to weed growth. Under-grazing allows cattle to be more selective about what they consume, allowing less-desirable weedy plants to flourish. Redfearn says using pasture rotation can help you adjust the area available to cattle for grazing and minimize the opportunity for either issue.

For cool-season grasses, Flynn recommends keeping at least 3” of grass. For warm-season grasses, keep at least 6” to 8” of growth.

“At that point, allow the forage to recover a bit,” he says. “I’ve seen the practice of resting actually double the amount of forage available. A great saying that I like and that’s so true is ‘grass grows grass.’”

5. Consider multiple approaches to weed control. Mowing, herbicide applications and even the use of goats and sheep can sometimes be useful to addressing weed problems in pasture. If you wonder whether it’s time to use a herbicide, one way to evaluate return-on-investment is to evaluate the ratio of weeds to forage.

“We find that if 25% to 30%, of your herbage in the field is made up of non-desirable species – that if we can get those under control and convert that back over to forage biomass – it would justify spending upwards of $20 to $25 an acre for a herbicide and the application,” Flynn says.

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How to Respond to TIME’s Person of the Year

Fri, 20 Nov 2020 05:53:42 GMT

TIME magazine announced Greta Thunberg, 16, as its person of the year on Wednesday. Thunberg is a Swedish climate activist who gained international attention this year with scathing criticism of world leaders for their inaction on the climate crisis.

“Thunberg has become the biggest voice on the biggest issue facing the planet—and the avatar of a broader generational shift in our culture that is playing out everywhere from the campuses of Hong Kong to the halls of Congress in Washington,” Time editor-in-chief Edward Felsenthal wrote.

Since 1927 when Charles Lindbergh was named TIME’s first person of the year, the magazine has featured the most influential person, group, movement or idea of the previous 12 months. Last year, it was “The Guardians,” a group of journalists who have been targeted or assaulted for their work. In 2017, it was “The Silence Breakers,” the group of people who came forward to report sexual misconduct. President Donald Trump was selected in 2016 and Germany’s Angela Merkel in 2015.

Thunberg becomes the youngest person to be recognized, blossoming on the world stage when she began organizing school strikes and protest marches to call attention to a climate crisis that she says older generations are not taking seriously enough. She has famously called out world leaders for debating scientific facts and failing to stop a global warming trend that will affect the world’s children more than it affects anyone who’s currently in power.

Greta Thunberg (Photo: Bloomberg)

Thunberg’s recognition is a watershed event and if you are involved in agriculture you should take notice. And let’s be clear, whether you believe in climate change or think it’s a hoax is irrelevant. What matters is that climate is an issue gathering world-wide attention and is rapidly becoming the motivational force behind how a generation of people are living their lives.

I recognize many of you harbor some strong opinions about climate change, but please, don’t send them to me. There is no argument – pro or con – that I haven’t already heard, and such arguments are pointless because this movement is not about what you or I believe but about your customers.

Indeed, over the past decade we have witnessed a seismic shift in the way consumers buy all goods and services. Modern Americans have always demanded quality, only now quality means much more to younger consumers. For many quality means products must meet certain criteria for sustainability and environmental impact. Repeatedly, we’ve seen studies that show consumers believe our food system is broken – or at least in need of change. One criticism is that American diets are the most resource-intensive on the planet.

American farmers and ranchers can argue their production systems are the most efficient on the planet. True enough, but that doesn’t always resonate with younger consumers – especially those trained to believe cows are the root cause of climate change. To those young consumers – many of whom are becoming vegan – arguing that climate change is a hoax or sustainability is hogwash is simply irrational.

If you’re wary of how new environmental regulations or land use restrictions may impact your farm or ranch you must become more involved in the process. That doesn’t mean making the hoax argument at every opportunity because that ship is dead in the water with millennials. No, arguing with your customers about what they want is not a winning strategy.

Ultimately, the global movement on climate change will require that you make some changes to your operation, to quality control and resources management. It’s likely that future farmers and ranchers will be required to submit to a third-party audit of their operation to verify compliance with certain environmental and animal welfare standards.

I’m not campaigning for those changes. But the world is rapidly shifting to views similar to Greta Thunberg’s.

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