Cost of Production

Canadian Farmers Look For A Fresh Start After The Driest Year In Decades

Mon, 20 Apr 2026 18:47:51 GMT

The way Tim Webster tells it, his 2025 cropping season was nearly a disaster. Summer delivered the lowest July–August rainfall his area had seen in 50 years. That lack and abnormally high temperatures pushed corn and soybeans to their limits.

“We had just enough moisture to get to the finish line,” recalls Webster, a sixth-generation farmer based just west of Lindsay, Ontario, Canada. The end result: corn and soybean yields came in at about half of normal.

Webster and fellow farmer Steve Crothers, who farms on the north shore of Lake Ontario about 50 miles east of Toronto, recently sat down with Illinois-based Farm Journal Field Agronomist Ken Ferrie to talk about how they’re adjusting cropping plans for 2026 after last year’s drought.

Drought Reshapes Farmer Expectations

For Webster, last season was a stark reminder of how quickly yield potential can evaporate. Ultimately, Webster’s bottom line took a hit.

“We’re hoping that doesn’t repeat again,” he told Ferrie.

Crothers’ experience, though slightly better, was still defined by drought. Growing corn, soybeans, wheat and edible beans along Lake Ontario, he says it was the driest of his 40-plus years in farming.

“We had a couple half-inch rains, so we kind of ended up with three-quarters of our long-term average yield. So, we fared a little bit better,” Crothers says.

Still, the season left him and Webster concerned about their cropping plans and finances for this year.

Crop Insurance As A Lifeline

Ferrie drew a comparison between Canadian and American safety nets as he listened to Crothers and Webster describe their experiences. In the U.S., Ferrie notes farmers often lean on multiple levels of crop insurance to blunt losses in a bad production year. He asked whether similar options exist for Canadian farmers.

Webster replied that growers there do have a provincial crop insurance program, but participation and coverage levels vary.
“I think we all felt after last year, maybe we should have been insured a little higher. But we were very happy to have what we had to help pay the bills, that’s for sure,” Webster notes.

Crothers says specialty crops, including edible white beans and adzuki beans, come under similar insurance frameworks as corn and soybeans, though they have higher premiums because of their higher value.

Most of the white beans grown in his part of Ontario head to the United Kingdom, while the adzuki beans (also called mung beans) are shipped to Japan, Crothers notes. Those export markets add another layer of risk to already weather-sensitive crops, making insurance an important backstop when weather or markets turn against them.

Fertilizer Sticker Shock Hits Canadian Growers

If drought defined 2025, fertilizer prices loom large over this season for Canadian farmers, much like they do for U.S. farmers.

“For 2026 our biggest thing is hope — hope for typical average rainfalls after last year’s drought,” Crothers says. “And then, of course, the economic challenges with the fertilizer situation are obviously troubling to everybody.”

He tells Ferrie most fertilizer in his part of Ontario is not prepaid “The fellows using 28% are usually prepaid, because it’s been hard to get the last few years. But generally, not near as much fertilizer is prepaid as what, in a perfect world, would have been.” Crothers reports.

That leaves many Canadian farmers more exposed to potential sticker shock as they head into spring planting.

Webster says he pre-bought some of his nitrogen (N) in February and is now leaning hard into a strategy of splitting applications and dialing back on more expensive, slow-release N options where he can.

This year, for his wheat topdress program, fertility costs didn’t pencil out, forcing a change in his plans.

“It’s $32 more [per acre] to go with the time-release product versus straight urea,” Webster notes. “So, I think on our wheat this year we’re going to do a lot of split applications.”

With diesel, fertilizer and other costs trending higher, he says, “anything you can do to save small increments adds up … for the whole operation.”

Cropping Plans: Adjust Or Stay The Course?

Both farmers describe their region as an area where crop rotations remain fairly consistent: corn, soybeans and wheat typically share the mix. Asked whether high input prices and drought fears would drive large acreage shifts this season, Webster says his own operation plans to stay the course with its rotation, helped by a marketing strategy that spreads grain sales out over time to manage risk and meet mortgage payments.

Still, he’s aware some of his neighbors are recalibrating their cropping plans.

“I know some guys are going to go less corn, more beans — just less dollars to put it in,” Webster notes. “Maybe the profits aren’t as high, but there’s less risk involved.”

Ferrie notes that, similar to Ontario, many U.S. growers also appear to be largely holding to their established crop plans, as their major fertilizer and seed commitments were already made before input costs soared.

In a region still feeling the effects of the driest season in decades, both Webster and Crothers are essentially betting on a return to something closer to normal this season — average rains, manageable input costs and no repeat of last year’s extremes.

“If we get good yields, then we can deal with those [costs],” Crothers says. “But another weather year like last year would definitely be a struggle for a lot of people.”

Crothers and Webster spoke with Ferrie during a meeting hosted by the Durham Soil and Crop Association, a grassroots group that works under Ontario’s agricultural umbrella to bring new ideas, funding opportunities and conservation programs to farmers in the region.

You can catch the entire conversation between Ferrie, Crothers and Webster on this week’s Boots In The Field podcast, available below.

The 20-Bushel Wake-Up Call One Farmer Is Using To Boost Soybean Yields

Mon, 20 Apr 2026 16:42:59 GMT

For years, Stephen Butz watched his corn yields climb while his soybeans stalled. The numbers didn’t lie: corn was steadily improving, while soybeans were “average at best,” he recalls, running hot and cold from year to year with no clear pattern.

“Our soybeans were just plateauing,” says Butz, who farms near Kankakee, Ill.

The turning point for Butz came several years ago on a 120-acre field split between two soybean varieties — 80 acres on the north side and 40 acres on the south. Everything matched: planting date, field conditions, management. The only difference was the variety planted.

At harvest, the 40-acre section of the field was 18 to 19 bushels per acre better.

A talk with Butz’s seedsman revealed the answer: the higher-yielding soybeans carried the Peking source of resistance to soybean cyst nematode (SCN). That single difference explained nearly 20-bushels-per-acre the farm had been losing to SCN for years.

“Honestly, it was just one of those deals where our seed guy had said, ‘Hey, this is a good number.’ So we’d planted the variety kind of naively,” Butz says. “But lo and behold, it was a huge benefit for us and showed us a problem we had on this farm and other farms, too.”

With the initial finding of SCN, Butz started soil testing to identify how significant the problem was across his farm. Surprisingly, soil tests revealed SCN populations ranging from the low hundreds to as high as 5,000 per sample.

“We’ve got a good amount of farms in that 3,000 to 5,000 count, which is an extremely high amount that I need to address,” says Butz, who samples fields ahead of planting.

Spring 2026: Going 100% Peking

After splitting acres for several years between non-GMO and Enlist soybeans, Butz made a decisive shift to the latter for 2026 as the non-GMO soybeans do not carry resistance to SCN.

“This spring, we are going with 100% Peking,” he says

For Butz, the move is less about chasing bonus bushels of soybeans and more about stopping the hidden losses SCN has been causing. He’s certain he’s left a lot of yield potential on the table in previous seasons.

“We’re not so much adding bushels (with the Peking) as we expect to relieve the stress that’s been taking bushels away,” he says.

Going all-Peking this season is only part of his management plan. The other piece is rotating more between corn and soybeans and, over time, between different SCN technologies, including Peking and PI 88788.

Butz’s cropping pattern follows a rough structure of thirds in any given year: about a third of his total acres in corn or soybeans and another third in continuous corn. That same structure drives his soil sampling schedule and will, in the future, he says, guide how he rotates SCN resistance traits across the landscape.

He also hopes to bring new technology into the mix, including the new SCN solution on the way from BASF Agricultural Solutions, called Nemasphere. It is the first-ever biotech trait designed specifically to address SCN.

Unlike traditional native resistance found in PI 88788 and Peking, Nemasphere is based on a transgenic trait — a Cry14 protein engineered directly into the soybean — explains Hugo Borsari, BASF vice president of business management for seeds in North America.

Beyond Yield: Logistics And Longevity

For Butz, the case for more soybeans, and especially better-protected soybeans, isn’t just agronomic. It’s logistical and financial.
Soybeans help spread out workload during planting and harvest, he explains, easing the strain of managing continuous corn acres. They also inject rotation into fields that might otherwise lean too heavily to continuous corn.

“Years of continuous corn in some spots is fine, but rotation is obviously better,” he said during a recent panel discussion hosted by BASF.

Like he found out by accident, Butz says he believes many other growers might be losing significant yield to SCN without realizing it.

“You might live in an area that you raise 75-bushel beans all the time, or 80-bushel beans, and that’s amazing. But what if the potential is 90 or 100 bushels?“ Butz asks. “There’s plenty of people out there that might be losing 10, 15 bushels off the top, and that adds up fast. You’re freaking losing $100 an acre pretty quick that would help a lot with your bottom line.”

Trump Warns Fertilizer Giants Against "Price Gouging" as Costs Soar 40%

Tue, 14 Apr 2026 15:46:55 GMT

Fertilizer market volatility is once again taking center stage as geopolitical tensions disrupt global supply lines and push input costs sharply higher. New analysis shows the increase in fertilizer prices may not be over, even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens soon.

Even with the situation in Iran pushing prices even higher, the sharp increase in fertilizer prices from 2020 to now is catching attention in Washington. Not only did President Donald Trump take to social media to warn of ‘price gouging,’ but Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins also posted on X Monday, specifically expressing frustration over Mosaic’s response to farmers.

While Rollins and USDA Under Secretary Stephen Vaden have raised concerns over fertilizer prices this year, the president posted on Truth Social over the weekend that he is closely monitoring fertilizer prices and pledged support for American farmers.

Trump said Saturday on his Truth Social platform he is “watching fertilizer prices CLOSELY” during what he described as the US “FIGHT FOR FREEDOM in Iran”, adding that the administration “will not accept PRICE GOUGING from the fertilizer monopoly”.

On Monday, Rollins posted on X, saying she was “So disappointed in this response” from Mosaic, “especially as you decide to idle two fertilizer production facilities, removing 1 MMT of supply from the world market.”

So disappointed in this response, @MosaicCompany, especially as you decide to idle two fertilizer production facilities, removing 1 MMT of supply from the world market. 🚨

Our Great President and this Administration have our farmers' backs. 💪🌾

Any sleight of hand will not be… https://t.co/GTCxcBQNgi
— Secretary Brooke Rollins (@SecRollins) April 13, 2026

Mosaic announced last week the decision to shut down major phosphate operations in Brazil, a move the that will cut production, reduce jobs, and signal a *strategic shift in how the fertilizer giant deploys its capital.

Mosaic Company announced Thursday it will idle two phosphate facilities in Brazil as part of a broader effort to cut costs and shift capital. Mosaic expects idling of the facilities to reduce annual phosphate production by approximately 1 million tonnes. CEO Bruce Bodine says the decision reflects what he calls a disciplined focus on long-term returns.

.@MosaicCompany, you’re right that U.S. farmers are facing a difficult economic situation, only made worse by the extra $6.9 BILLION they have had to spend on fertilizer since you petitioned the government to place duties on imported phosphorus. This has played a major role in… https://t.co/UuOqjE0jBu
— National Corn (NCGA) (@NationalCorn) April 13, 2026

Mosaic and Simplot have also been in the cross hairs of the push to remove countervailing duties on Moroccan phosphate . Groups like the National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) claim the CVDs are costing U.S. agriculture $1 billion each year.

The CVDs on Moroccan phosphate were put into place by the International Trade Commission (ITC) in 2021. As the sunset review begins, more than 50 state grower groups including the Texas Corn Producers Association, sent a letter to the U.S. Department of Commerce and the ITC to revoke the countervailing duties on imported phosphate fertilizers from Morocco and Russia.

In separate filings by Mosaic and Simplot to the ITC and the Department of Commerce, both companies said the continuation is necessary to maintain a “level playing field.”

In a written response to Farm Journal, Mosaic said:

“American farmers depend on a strong domestic fertilizer industry, which in turn depends on strong enforcement of U.S. trade laws that ensure a level playing field. Mosaic is proud to support U.S. agriculture with high-quality, reliable products produced here at home.”

Iran War’s Current Impact on Fertilizer Prices

The message from the Trump adminstration comes as tensions escalate in the Strait of Hormuz, where the United States is weighing a potential full naval blockade. Ship traffic through the critical waterway has already dropped from roughly 135 vessels per day to the single digits. A complete shutdown could halt flows entirely, further increasing fertilizer prices.

The stakes are high as roughly one-third of global fertilizer shipments move through the strait, and the disruption is already sending prices higher, up more than 40% compared to a year ago.

It is the 6-week anniversary of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Fert price comparisons:

NOLA urea - +$230 or 49%
NOLA UAN - +$145 or 38%
Midwest NH3 - +$245 or 32%
NOLA DAP - +$130 or 21%
NOLA potash - +$10 or 3%

...corn - 2-cents or 0.5% higher#sickeningforfarmers
— Josh Linville (@JLinvilleFert) April 10, 2026

Market data shows the impact Iran is having on already high fertilizer prices. According to StoneX analyst Josh Linville says in the six weeks since the war started:

Urea prices have surged by $230 per ton, a 49% increase
UAN is up $145 per ton, or 38%
Anhydrous ammonia has climbed $245 per ton, a 32% jump.
In contrast, corn prices have barely responded, rising just two cents, or about half a percent. The divergence is putting additional pressure on farm margins.

DOJ Probe Into Fertilizer Costs Seeks Input From Farmers

The Trump administration is asking farmers to help provide information as part of an ongoing U.S. Department of Justice investigation into elevated costs for fertilizer, machinery and other key agricultural inputs, according to reporting from Bloomberg.

Bloomberg reported the effort is aimed at gathering more on-the-ground data as regulators examine whether fertilizer producers may have coordinated to raise prices. The DOJ investigation was first reported in early March, when Bloomberg said federal officials had begun looking into whether fertilizer companies engaged in price coordination.

According to the Bloomberg report, Vaden said he has already met with officials at both the Department of Justice and the Federal Trade Commission to discuss potential lines of inquiry. He also noted that farmers could play a key role in the process.

Vaden said farmers “have a lot of information that might be relevant to these investigations.”

Bloomberg previously reported in early March that the Department of Justice is investigating whether fertilizer producers colluded to increase prices.

Speaking at the North American Agricultural Journalists’ annual conference in Washington on Monday, Vaden encouraged farmer participation in the probe, emphasizing confidentiality protections.

“We need farmers to help provide us with that information on a confidential basis, so that that can help inform the investigations that are ongoing,” Vaden said, according to Bloomberg. “I think we will have a mechanism in order to help encourage that exchange of information.”

NCGA Surveys Show Not All Farmers Have Fertilizer Secured for 2026

Against that backdrop, along with fertilizer prices climbing even higher in the six weeks after the conflict started with Iran, new surveys results from NCGA highlight how those market pressures are translating to on-farm realities.

Krista Swanson, chief economist for NCGA, says the organization conducted the survey to better understand fertilizer availability from the farmer perspective. Ag Secretary Rollins has told mainstream media that 80% of farmers have fertilizer locked in for 2026, but NCGA data contradicts that figure.

“We’re hearing that number being thrown around too, which is why we really wanted to find out directly from farmers what the status is for them,” Swanson says.

NCGA Grower Survey

(National Corn Growers Association (NCGA))

A Significant Gap in Fertilizer Readiness

The surveys show that only 60% of farmers report having their nitrogen fully purchased or secured for the 2026 growing season, while 64% say the same for phosphate. That leaves a sizable portion of producers still working to lock in supplies.

“When you think about over 500,000 corn farmers in the U.S., this isn’t a small number,” Swanson says. “Our survey results indicate that over 200,000 farmers still need at least some fertilizer for this year.”

Nitrogen remains a critical input for corn production and is closely tied to yield potential. Any shortfall, whether driven by availability or cost, can directly affect productivity and profitability.

NCGA Grower Surveys

(National Corn Growers Association (NCGA))

Younger Farmers Feeling the Pressure Most

The survey also points to uneven impacts across the farm sector, with younger farmers facing greater challenges in securing fertilizer.

Swanson says younger producers reported having more nitrogen left to purchase compared to older farmers.

“You think about younger farmers that have less capital already built up in their business, maybe tighter cash flow needs because of their equity position,” she says. “This does seem to have a disproportional impact on younger farmers.”

That dynamic raises concerns about financial strain among newer operations in a high-cost environment.

Corn Acres Likely Stable, But With Reduced Inputs

Despite the challenges, most farmers are not planning to reduce corn acreage. The survey found that 80% of respondents expect to maintain their planned acres.

NCGA Grower Survey

(National Corn Growers Association (NCGA))

At the same time, fertilizer application rates may fall short. Half of the farmers surveyed say they do not expect to apply their full amount of fertilizer.

“Pairing these two together, it seems to me like we are still going to see a lot of corn acres get planted,” Swanson says. “But those corn acres will have less fertilizer than maybe what they would have otherwise had.”

That combination could limit yield potential if input reductions become widespread.

Growing Concern Shifts to 2027

While fertilizer availability remains a concern for 2026, attention is already turning to the next crop year. Fertilizer purchasing follows a rolling cycle, and planning for 2027 will begin soon.

Survey responses show that for every one farmer more concerned about fertilizer price and availability for 2026, nearly two are more concerned about 2027.

NCGA Grower Survey

(National Corn Growers Association (NCGA))

“So farmers are concerned as we look ahead to next year,” Swanson says.

The shift reflects uncertainty about how long supply disruptions and elevated prices will persist.

Supply Chain Recovery May Take Time

Even if geopolitical tensions ease, relief may not come quickly. Swanson notes that the fertilizer market is still dealing with production disruptions and supply chain backlogs.

“A short-term ceasefire has limited immediate impact on this ongoing fertilizer crisis for farmers,” she says. “Even when a permanent end to the situation is reached, we’re still looking at recovery from supply chain backlogs and halted production that could take a long time to recover from.”

Damage to key inputs such as liquid natural gas and sulfur production could take years to repair, keeping pressure on supply.

A Tightening Outlook

The NCGA survey underscores a challenging environment for corn producers. Most acres are expected to be planted this year, but not all will receive optimal fertilizer applications. At the same time, concern is building for 2027 as farmers look ahead to the next purchasing cycle.

For many producers, the issue is no longer just securing fertilizer for this season. It is navigating a period of sustained uncertainty that could shape production decisions, costs, and risk management strategies across the U.S. corn sector.

Longstanding Concerns Over Market Concentration

In September 2025, USDA and the U.S. Department of Justice signed a Memorandum of Understanding, committing both agencies to jointly examine high and volatile input costs, which included fertilizer, by scrutinizing competitive conditions in agricultural markets and enforcing antitrust laws, particularly around price setting and market concentration.

While geopolitical tensions are the latest driver of volatility, many farm groups argue the root of the problem runs deeper. Matt Perdue, president of the North Dakota Farmers Union, says ongoing federal investigations into fertilizer pricing must lead to meaningful action.

“We appreciate the administration’s investigations into input costs,” Perdue says. “But investigations don’t do anything if they’re not followed by enforcement, and they don’t do anything if we don’t learn what came out of those investigations.”

Groups like the Texas Corn Producers Association have been raising concerns about fertilizer market concentration for years. Texas farmer Dee Vaughan says the organization began studying the issue in 2020, working with the Agricultural and Food Policy Center at Texas A&M to examine pricing trends.

“We’ve been very concerned about all of our input costs, but specifically fertilizer, because it’s the one that just keeps going up almost exponentially,” Vaughan says.

He adds those studies found a shift in how fertilizer prices are determined . Historically tied closely to natural gas costs, the study found nitrogen fertilizer pricing began tracking corn prices more closely after 2010, a change Vaughan says reflects deeper structural issues.

According to Vaughan, the small number of firms controlling the market have the data and market awareness to price inputs based on farmers’ revenue potential, rather than production costs.

“They all have economists on staff,” Vaughan says. “They know exactly what our costs are, what our income is, and they’re able to extract value based on what they see as the gross income of a farmer. It’s not based on cost of production any longer.”

The New Ag Economy: Why This Downturn is a Structural Shift, Not Just a Cycle

Mon, 13 Apr 2026 21:22:19 GMT

What You Need to Know:

Structural Evolution: This downturn is a permanent market shift, not just a temporary cycle.
Friend-Shoring: Trade is moving toward geopolitical allies to ensure supply chain resilience.
Aggressive Cost-Cutting: Farmers are doubling generic input use and delaying machinery purchases to protect margins.
Financial Resilience: Better management and working capital make today far more stable than the 1980s.
Premium Protein Demand: GLP-1 medications are driving consumers toward smaller, higher-quality meat portions

As the industry enters the third year of this downturn, farmers and agribusinesses are questioning if a recovery is on the two-year horizon. While cyclical behavior is normal, two economists suggest the structural evolution within crop protection, machinery, technology, livestock and other individual sectors is creating a different kind of staying power for those who survive the recovery.

The Evolution of the Cycle

When characterizing the current economic cycle in agriculture, historical patterns provide a necessary baseline, yet the present landscape is defined by unique pressures. Typical agricultural cycles consist of roughly six years of expansion followed by four years of decline. Currently, the market is navigating a “corrective period,” returning to long-run averages.

The drivers of growth are typically demand shocks — export surges, fuel demand or policy shifts such as the Renewable Fuel Standard. However, Wes Davis, ag economist at Meridian Ag Advisors, notes the current environment is an intersection of traditional contraction and sector-specific evolution.

“What I think we’re experiencing right now is that typical cycle behavior where we see growth in some business firms, and then some contraction and pullback to adjust to the cycle going back to more of the long-run average,” Davis explains. “I think we’re also seeing evolution of individual sectors within the market where there’s adjustments happening because of the industry itself.”

In other words, this isn’t just a cycle — it’s also a structural shift.

Change Fatigue and Modern Volatility

Farmers aren’t strangers to volatility, but global trade disruptions, policy shifts and rising competition, especially from Brazil, are layering uncertainty onto already volatile markets.
Farmers are grappling with “change fatigue,” a byproduct of the high velocity of information and extreme price swings that dwarf the relative stability of the early 2000s.

“When I go talk to any industry group right now, the phrase that I hear is ‘change fatigue’, and I feel that. Every couple minutes, something shifts,” says Trey Malone, Purdue University ag econ professor. “But to be clear, it’s not that the farm economy isn’t used to volatility, it’s just the uncertainty and the volatility now is, like, ‘hold my beer relative’ to the old volatility.”

Malone attributes this to layers of uncertainty created by global trade and policy. The rise of Brazilian production, coinciding with the disruption of U.S.-China trade relations, has created a permanent state of flux. This sentiment is reflected in the Purdue Ag Economy Barometer, which shares a higher correlation with the Small Business Index (.5) than with actual commodity prices. This suggests farmers view themselves primarily as small business owners facing broad economic pressures rather than just price-takers.

“We don’t see very strong correlations even with lagged soybean prices and corn prices,” Malone notes. “The world is more complicated than just looking at what happened in the market yesterday and gauging how farmers feel.”

Global Competitiveness and the Trade Reallocation

A primary concern for U.S. producers is their position as low-cost providers. While the U.S. maintains an infrastructure advantage that lowers the cost of getting products to export ports, Brazil continues to close the gap.

“It’s a fair question farmers ask a lot: Are we actually the ones who are the low-cost producers, and do we still have a place in the global market if Brazil continues to lower the cost of production and transport their grain to export terminals?” Davis asks.

However, Davis points out that global trade hasn’t shut off; it has reallocated. Only three global regions — North America, Latin America and parts of Southeastern Europe/Central Asia — are net exporters. The rest of the world remains net importers.

“While our trade has kind of shifted around ... that shift has really reallocated stuff in different places. Those calories and products end up going somewhere. It’s just a question of where,” he says.

The Shift to “Friend-Shoring” and Resilient Supply Chains

The industry is moving from “just-in-time” (hyper-lean) procurement to “just-in-case” (inventory-heavy) strategies, a lesson reinforced by the pandemic. This shift is accompanied by “friend-shoring,” where the U.S. prioritizes trade with geopolitical allies.

“We’ve gone from offshoring to onshoring to nearshoring to friendshoring,” Malone explains. “We’ve got a paper that’ll be coming out ... where we document friend-shoring in ag and food supply chains. Over the last 10 years, there’s been a shift where we mostly in the U.S. trade with other people who vote like us in the WTO. That’s kind of one way to measure friends.”

This resilience is also visible in crop protection. In 2019, 80% of active ingredients were sourced from China. Today, that is closer to 60%, with manufacturing shifting to India and domestic sites. Davis calls these “geopolitically resilient” supply chains.

The Rise of Generics and Decision Paralysis

The economic downturn is fundamentally changing the business model for input providers. Farmers are aggressively cutting costs, leading to a massive surge in generic usage.

“The latest survey I saw shows about 60% of farmers use generics today. That was about 30% to 40% just 5 years ago,” Davis says. This forces companies to pivot from differentiation to operational volume.

In the machinery sector, high costs and economic uncertainty have led to “decision paralysis.” Farmers are extending the life of their equipment, treating machinery replacement as the most controllable variable in managing annual ROI. Davis notes the U.S. ag equipment cycle is currently 15 to 20 percentage points lower than typical low points, driven by this hesitation. Furthermore, there is significant skepticism toward subscription-based technology models.

“Farmers don’t terribly love this idea, and I think the other interesting thought here is I’m not sure that retailers like selling them either,” Malone adds.

AI: The “Undergraduate Intern”

While artificial intelligence (AI) is a major talking point, its current role in agriculture is more supportive than transformative. Malone views AI as a “highly capable undergraduate intern” — useful for processing information but incapable of replacing the trust and risk management provided by human advisors.

“I don’t think you need to be replacing your agronomist. I think your mediocre agronomist just got OK,” Malone says, noting while LLMs can pass CCA exams, they cannot manage the risk of a wrong decision. “The risk management value proposition of an in-person Claude, or whoever, is probably going to win out because there’s still a risk.”

Currently, the adoption gap is wide: While 75% of agribusiness managers see potential in AI, only 4% have implemented it, according to a Purdue University survey in 2025.

Livestock and the GLP-1 Impact

The livestock sector is facing a unique demand shift driven by weight-loss medications (GLP-1s). This is leading to “premiumization.” As consumers eat smaller portions, they are opting for higher-quality cuts.

“The explosion in demand for protein is just shocking,” Malone says. “What GLP-1s do to that calorie count is they are all shifting toward premium cuts. You don’t care how much it costs because you’re only going to have seven bites of it. But you’re going to have a steak. That premiumization is going to really, really take off in the next 10 years.”

Conversely, the hype surrounding “fake meat” has largely faded, proving to be more of an investor-led phenomenon than a market-driven one.

Financial Stability: Not the 1980s

Despite the downturn, the financial health of the American farmer remains more stable than during the crisis of the 1980s. Currently, 10% to 12% of farmers are in a “tight” financial position , compared to 20% to 30% in the 80s.

“We do have a completely different, more professional ag workforce than we did back then,” Malone says. “The farm policy we have right now does not necessarily match what we need for the future, but all of these things make me think we’re in a much more stable position.”

Farmers have built-in “shock absorbers,” Davis adds, including off-farm income and working capital built up during the expansion years. However, in his research Davis has seen how alternative financing is becoming a major tool for the 50% of farmers who use it — either to manage stress or, for larger operations, to leverage relationships with retailers.

Strategic Reassessment: Winning at the Bottom

The experts agree the “bottom of the cycle” is the time for professionalization and upskilling. Surviving — and thriving — will require sharper management. It is an opportunity to reassess farm transitions and management disciplines, such as financial management, accounting and planning, which become critical in tight margins.

“Farmers are going to have to get smarter and get more creative with how they manage,” Malone says. “This is a good opportunity to take a step back and think about what the strategy needs to be moving forward.”

Davis emphasizes relationships are solidified during these periods: “Farmers are going to remember the folks who were around when they were in the bottom of the cycle, and who were there to support them. The best farmers will continue to get better ... I get excited about what we can look like as we come out of this cycle.”

So Is This Ag Cycle Different?

These experts say yes as every cycle presents its own unique reshaping of future opportunities.

To download the full report on why this ag cycle is different and what it means for your operation, click here .

The Iran War Is Sending Fertilizer Prices Soaring at the Worst Time for Farmers

Tue, 10 Mar 2026 18:43:17 GMT

The American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) is urging the Trump administration to take immediate action to stabilize fertilizer supply chains as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East send shockwaves through global input markets just as U.S. farmers begin spring planting. But with farmers already dealing with high fertilizer prices, even before the conflict in Iran, farmers are searching for a longer-term solution. Fertilizer market analysts warn while there are several options longer-term, there is no single fix for high fertilizer prices, only a mix of short-term policy responses and long-term investments that could gradually stabilize supply.

But today, the sticker shock is hitting farmers hard, especially for those who waited to book fertilizer for spring. Fertilizer prices have shot up in just a week. Typically, retailers may receive updated pricing once or twice a month. But with the ongoing uncertainty in Iran and the impact on the Strait of Hormuz is having on fertilizer shipments, some retailers say they are getting several pricing updates a day.

The price shock is real for farmers. One local Missouri retailer told AgWeb that in just a two-week period:

Urea is up $140 per ton
NH3 has risen $100 per ton
UAN is also up $100 per ton

American Farm Bureau Calls for Intervention

In a March 9 letter to the White House , AFBF warned fertilizer and fuel prices have surged following disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy and shipping corridors. The organization says the spike in costs comes as farmers are already dealing with what it describes as a “generational decline in farm income” driven by falling crop prices and persistent inflation.

AFBF notes farmers entered 2026 on somewhat stronger footing after passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and $12 billion in emergency economic assistance. However, the group warns rapidly rising input costs could quickly erase those gains, and now U.S. producers are bracing for a system shock resulting from the disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Middle East Tensions Highlight Fertilizer Market Risks

New analysis from AFBF’s Market Intel team underscores why fertilizer markets are particularly vulnerable to geopolitical instability involving Iran and neighboring countries in the Persian Gulf. Nitrogen fertilizer supply chains are closely tied to the region, which accounts for nearly 49% of global urea exports and about 30% of global ammonia exports. Major exporters include Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Egypt.

AFBF says the Strait of Hormuz is central to energy and fertilizer trade. Oil flowing through the Strait averaged about 20 million barrels per day in 2024, roughly 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption. Because energy is a major input to fertilizer production and transportation, disruptions or heightened risk in the region can amplify volatility across agricultural input markets.

(American Farm Bureau Federation )

Large volumes of fertilizer inputs, including urea, ammonia, phosphates and sulfur, move through the Strait of Hormuz each year, creating a major choke point for agricultural supply chains. AFBF says energy markets are also closely linked to fertilizer production. Their estimates point to roughly 20 million barrels of oil per day moving through the Strait, about 20% of global petroleum consumption. Because energy is a major input in fertilizer manufacturing and transportation, disruptions in the region can quickly amplify price volatility.

AFBF economists say Iran holds some of the world’s largest natural gas reserves, and natural gas is the key feedstock used to produce ammonia, the foundational input for most nitrogen fertilizers. Urea, which contains about 46% nitrogen, is the most widely used solid nitrogen fertilizer globally and plays a central role in crop production systems.

(American Farm Bureau Federation )

The timing of the disruption is especially concerning because U.S. farmers are currently making fertilizer purchases and applying nutrients ahead of planting. Analysts on U.S. Farm Report last weekend warned higher input costs could shift up to 1 million 1.5 million acres from corn to soybeans this spring . AFBF analysts also say delayed shipments or higher prices could lead some farmers to adjust cropping plans.

Why U.S. Farmers Feel Global Price Swings

Even when the United States is not directly importing fertilizer from the Middle East, domestic prices still follow global markets.
The U.S. relies on both domestic production and imports to meet fertilizer demand. According to AFBF, the U.S. imports roughly:

97% of its potassium
18% of its nitrogen
13% of its phosphate

That global exposure means disruptions anywhere in the fertilizer supply chain can quickly affect American farmers.

A new AFBF Market Intel report shows the U.S. relies on both domestic production and imports to meet fertilizer demand, and import exposure varies by nutrient. Roughly 97% of potassium is imported, 18% of nitrogen and 13% of phosphate. This import exposure increases sensitivity to global trade disruptions, particularly during seasonal demand peaks.

(American Farm Bureau Federation)

Short-Term Fixes: Policy and Supply

In the letter sent to the White House this week, AFBF president Zippy Duvall not only pointed out the fertilizer problem farmers now face, but he also outlined several steps the administration could take immediately to prevent supply disruptions and moderate prices.

Among the recommendations:

Using the U.S. Navy to help ensure safe maritime transit for fertilizer shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
Working with international partners to maintain open shipping lanes.
Addressing insurance barriers for vessels transporting fertilizer cargo through federal tools, such as programs administered by the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation.
Ensuring domestic ports, railroads and barge systems can quickly move fertilizer supplies to farms.
Temporarily waiving the Jones Act to improve domestic shipping capacity between U.S. ports.
Suspending countervailing duties on certain imported fertilizer products.

But while those actions could help ease pressure in the short term, fertilizer analysts say structural challenges in the market remain.

Are Fertilizer Prices in a Worst-Case Scenario?

While fertilizer is even more of a concern heading into spring, prices were already high, even before the situation unfolded in Iran earlier this month. According to Josh Linville, vice president of fertilizer at StoneX Group, many farmers are asking a more immediate question: Have fertilizer prices already reached the worst-case scenario?

Linville says the answer is “no.”

The reason, he explains, is that global fertilizer markets remain highly sensitive to geopolitical developments — particularly those affecting major shipping lanes.

At the moment, much of that uncertainty centers around tensions involving Iran and the potential threat to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy and fertilizer trade routes.

“Right now we still hold onto the hope that, within a couple days, we will put so much pressure on the Iranian regime and take out so many of their leaders that they become a shell,” Linville says. “All of a sudden they can no longer do the offensive attacks. They can no longer pressure the Strait of Hormuz and cause vessels to sit there and say, ‘I will not risk my ship, I will not risk my crew and I will not risk my load to go through a channel that’s that dangerous.’”

If tensions escalate to the point shipping companies refuse to move vessels through the region, fertilizer supply chains could face significant disruptions. A large portion of global nitrogen and phosphate trade flows through the Middle East, making the waterway critical to international fertilizer logistics.

But if the situation stabilizes quickly, Linville believes markets could recover just as fast.

“If we can knee-cap them to the point that they no longer have an offensive capability, and we can free flow back in the Strait of Hormuz, we’ve only lost several days — maybe a week,” he says. “And I think we can make that up very, very quickly.”

That means geopolitical risk remains one of the biggest wild cards in fertilizer markets. Prices could move sharply higher if trade routes are disrupted, but they could also stabilize if those risks fade.

What Are Possible Longer-Term Fixes?

While fertilizer prices may not have even seen the highs, especially if ships through the Strait aren’t able to get through, farmers searching for a single solution to high fertilizer prices are likely to be frustrated.

“People keep asking, ‘How do we fix this? How do we fix this?’” Linville says during a recent appearance on the Unscripted podcast . “No one answer is going to fix every fertilizer.”

Instead, Linville says the conversation needs to separate short-term relief from long-term structural fixes. When he looks at the nitrogen market, which includes urea, UAN and ammonia, Linville says there is at least one potential short-term lever policymakers could pull.

“In the short term, when I look at urea, when I look at nitrogen, my short-term view is simple: Get rid of DEF. Get rid of those regulations,” he says.

Diesel exhaust fluid (DEF), which is used in emissions systems for diesel engines, relies on urea as a key ingredient. Linville says that policy requirement diverts nitrogen away from agriculture.

“Everybody is begging for it because it’s terrible for equipment, and it puts a lot of that nitrogen back in the hands of the farmer,” Linville says. “That is a quick fix.”

But he says the bigger issue for nitrogen markets is production capacity.

Natural gas is the primary feedstock used to produce nitrogen fertilizer, and the United States and Canada have some of the cheapest natural gas supplies in the world. Yet North America still relies heavily on imported fertilizer.

“Longer term, we need to look at trying to invest more money,” Linville says. “Get similar-type loans to build new nitrogen facilities in the U.S. and Canada, wherever that might be. It needs to be a North America approach. That’s a long-term fix.”

Linville says governments have already shown a willingness to support fertilizer development projects, but those efforts have focused on the wrong nutrients.

“The government has given long-term loans to potash mines. That’s the one product we really don’t need more of,” he says. “I like that focus. I like that we’re increasing it. But potash is literally the last one that we need help with.”

Instead, he says those same financing tools should be directed toward nitrogen production facilities.

Building Fertilizer Plants Is a Massive Investment

Even if policymakers and investors move quickly, Linville says expanding fertilizer production is not a fast process. Fertilizer plants are some of the most complex and expensive facilities in the agricultural supply chain.

“It is multi-years and multi-billions of U.S. dollars,” Linville says.

To illustrate the scale of investment required, he points to a recent nitrogen plant transaction in Iowa.

“The Wever, Iowa, plant just sold not so long ago for $3-plus billion,” Linville says. “If the three of us came together and said, ‘You know what, let’s build a plant,’ a brand new world-scale facility is probably going to be $4 billion.”

Even after construction begins, production still takes time.

“You won’t see the first ton be produced and sold at a profit, at a margin, for probably at least 1.5 to 2 years, bare minimum. It’s a massive undertaking. There’s a lot of engineering, a lot of construction, a lot of land clearing. It’s not a fast process,” he says.

Still, Linville says increasing domestic production would help stabilize global fertilizer markets over time.

“If we produce here, we have more global supplies and less global demand because the U.S. and Canada are no longer calling on the rest of the world trying to buy these tons,” Linville says. “It helps smooth out the price curve.”

Should Fertilizer Companies Be Investigated?

As fertilizer prices climb, some policymakers are calling for closer scrutiny of the industry, citing concerns about consolidation and potential market manipulation. Last week, the U.S. Department of Justice launched an antitrust investigation into the U.S. fertilizer sector. According to a report from Bloomberg News, the probe is examining whether major fertilizer producers may have coordinated to push prices higher.

Companies reportedly included in the investigation are Nutrien, The Mosaic Company, CF Industries Holdings, Koch Industries and Yara International, firms that collectively represent a significant share of the U.S. nitrogen, phosphate and potash fertilizer markets.

That’s in addition to USDA also saying an investigation would occur into fertilizer pricing, calling Mosaic and Nutrien a ‘duopoly.’

Linville says those investigations are unlikely to solve the underlying issue.

“You’re going to hear a lot of farmers’ heads pop off when I say this, but I’m going to say ‘no,’” Linville says.

Instead, he points to price data from the New Orleans fertilizer market, commonly referred to as NOLA, which serves as the benchmark for U.S. urea prices.

“Look at our NOLA urea price,” Linville says. “Again, New Orleans, Louisiana, it’s the most visible market out there. NOLA to urea is the same as Chicago is to corn. It’s our base place for that trade.”

When those prices are compared to global benchmarks, Linville says the U.S. market has actually been trading below world values.

“When you look at the NOLA urea price compared to the Middle East replacement value, and we watch the Middle East because half of our urea imports come from that region, we have been operating at a discount for the entirety of this fertilizer year since July 1, 2025. There’s not been a week where our price has been a premium to the world.” Linville adds.

Because the U.S. still imports millions of tons of fertilizer each year, domestic prices inevitably follow the global market.

“It doesn’t matter if you have three dozen manufacturers or three,” Linville says. “Our price is still going to ebb and flow with that world product price because we are still a net importer.”

Tariffs on Moroccan, Russian Phosphate Imports Up for Review

While nitrogen markets are heavily tied to natural gas and production capacity, phosphate fertilizers face a different set of challenges, particularly trade policy.

The U.S. currently has countervailing duties on phosphate imports from Morocco and Russia that were implemented in 2021. Those duties are approaching a required five-year “sunset review,” which will determine whether they remain in place. That’s one thing AFBF stated this week that they’d like to see the Trump administration address.

But even before this week, groups such as NCGA have called on both the Trump and Biden administrations to remove the tariff, saying it’s only further driving up the prices farmers are paying.

“The countervailing duty against Morocco and Russia was officially put into place late March, early April 2021,” Linville says. “And it’s got a five-year sunset review. That’s exactly what we’re getting ready to move into.”

Some in the industry believe the review could result in those duties being overturned, opening the door for additional phosphate imports, but Linville isn’t convinced that outcome is likely.

“There’s a lot of excitement that they’re going to review this and overturn it,” he says. “I will say I have a higher-than-I-should optimism that they will overturn it and get rid of it. But the history of countervailing duty reviews would tell you there’s a very low chance that they’re going to overturn it.”

The reason is simple: Those reviews are supposed to be driven strictly by data. And in this case, the underlying conditions that led to the tariffs haven’t changed dramatically.

“Russia hasn’t changed practices. I don’t know that Morocco has changed enough of their practices.”

Still, he believes there is at least some possibility the political environment could influence the outcome.

“I have never seen an administration talk about fertilizer as much as this one has,” Linville says. “Because there’s been so much focus on the farmer and on fertilizer markets, there could be a political lean where they say, ‘Listen, I know what’s going on. You need to do something about this.’”

Even so, he cautions against farmers expecting a reversal.

A Complex Market With No Single Fix

Ultimately, fertilizer markets are shaped by a complex mix of energy prices, global trade flows, geopolitics and production capacity.
That means solving the fertilizer price puzzle will likely require a combination of policies, investments and international partnerships.

For farmers heading into the 2026 planting season, however, the immediate concern remains whether fertilizer supplies will arrive in time and at prices they can afford.

“It’s simple, guys,” Linville says. “But every fertilizer has a different path to fixing it.”

Control the Controllables To Capture More Bushels

Fri, 16 Jan 2026 19:37:13 GMT

A solid game plan addressing key fundamentals could be the most powerful risk-management tool farmers have going into the 2026 season, according to Randy Dowdy and David Hula. Here are four they encourage farmers to review and work on this winter:

Fuel The Crop Adequately

Hula stresses that even in low-margin years, you can’t cut corners on fundamental crop needs. He emphasizes using soil tests to manage N, P and K, looking at soil pH and applying lime where needed.

“When you think about where you’re spending dollars, you can’t waiver from that,” he says. “We have to cover the basics… there’s nothing that’s sexy about farming right now, [everyone’s] just trying to survive.”

Why Your Planter Is the Lowest Hanging Fruit for Yield

Randy Dowdy says the planter represents the “lowest hanging fruit” for yield improvement on 90% of U.S. farms.

“The planter is just not performing at the levels to reach the maximum potential that most farmers need to support and service debt,” Dowdy says.

He encourages growers to spend time in the shop, ensuring that every row unit is capable of delivering “picket fence” seed placement and performance. For Dowdy, this means every seed is placed at a consistent depth and spacing, emerging within a tight window of 10 to 12 Growing Degree Units (GDUs) of one another

“Does every seed have the same standard deviation between them, the placement from one seed to the next? Are they all singulated, and are they all coming up at the same time? If that’s not happening, that’s a big deal,” Dowdy says.

Consider Seed Size Along With Good Genetics

While every farmer is tuned into genetics, Dowdy and Hula say they can benefit from taking seed size into consideration, too.

One of the questions Hula says he often gets is, “What’s the best seed size to plant?”

After years of analyzing small rounds versus large flats, his philosophy has evolved into a practical rule of thumb.

“My answer now is simple: whatever your planter plants the best, that’s the seed you want to plant,” he says.

But that only works if you’ve done your homework on the meters—cleaning them, replacing worn parts, and calibrating them with actual seed to determine the vacuum and speed settings. Taking these steps can eliminate guesswork that leads to skips and doubles.

Generally, Dowdy observes that “Deere likes rounds, Precision likes flats.”

Both Dowdy and Hula caution against the temptation of buying plateless (mixed-size) seed just because it carries a lower price tag. Their take: if you use it, run side‑by‑side strips with good, graded seed so you can see the real yield cost.

“I’d really challenge [anyone using plateless seed] to plant some graded seed next to it… just so you could know what it’s costing you. It’s costing you money,” says Hula.

Take Only Calculated Risks, ‘Miss Small’

Dowdy says this is the year to “control the controllables” and stick with practices you know consistently pay. He warns that farmers can’t afford big mistakes in this economy. While he’s not afraid of trying new practices, he is afraid of not being profitable and not being able to service debt, so due diligence and ROI have to come first.

“If we’re going to have a fail, we don’t need to fail in a big way. We need to miss small in an economy like this,” Dowdy says. “I’ll put my big toe in the water, but it won’t be my whole foot and a bunch of acres.”

A Checklist For Reference This Winter

Here are additional highlights of recommendations Dowdy and Hula listed during their most recent Breaking Barriers With R&D podcast. These are not all-inclusive, but rather a starting point for farmers preparing for spring:

1. Soil and Fertility Basics

Lime and pH: Check pH by zone or grid. Apply lime only where pH is low. Avoid wasting inputs on ground at 6.5 or higher.
Manganese Alert: Watch for potential deficiencies in high pH spots (above 6.8).
P and K Strategy: Use recent soil tests to determine if Phosphorus can be reduced. Keep Potash a priority where base saturation justifies the spend.

2. The Planter Bar and Row Units

Parallel Arms: Inspect for “oblong” wear or side play. Replace any arms that aren’t tight.
Double-Disc Openers: Use a jig to check run-out. Only use blades that meet tight tolerances for a clean V-trench.
Gauge Wheels: Lift by hand. If they feel loose or drop instantly, adjust or replace the bushings and arms.
Alignment: Use a tape measure to verify every row is exactly on target (e.g., 30 inches). Ensure the toolbar is perfectly level front-to-back at operating height.

3. Seed Trench and Closing System

Centering: Run the planter across concrete. Ensure closing wheel marks are perfectly centered over the seed path.
Row Cleaners: Adjust “trash whippers” to move residue without gouging a deep furrow that could lead to erosion or crusting.

4. Seed and Meter Calibration

Match Seed to Meter: Generally, John Deere/ExactEmerge systems prefer rounds, while Precision Planting systems prefer flats.
The Meter Test: Replace worn belts and brushes. Calibrate meters annually on a test stand using your actual seed to determine the exact vacuum and speed settings.
The “Plateless” Warning: Avoid the temptation of cheap, mixed-size seed. If you use it, run a side-by-side strip against graded seed to measure the true cost of lost bushels.

5. Management Mindset

Miss Small: This is the year for calculated risks. Put your “big toe” in the water with new tech, but don’t commit the whole farm until you see a proven ROI on your own soil.
Check Strips: Always leave a clean, untreated check strip when trying new products for evaluation.

Hear the latest Breaking Barriers With R&D to learn more about Hula and Dowdy’s recommendations at Farm Journal TV and the YouTube link below.

Farmers Face Budget Squeeze And Balance Sheet Challenges—Echoes Of A Decade Ago

Tue, 30 Dec 2025 21:13:24 GMT

If heading into 2026 feels a little like déjà vu, you’re picking up the same vibes Chris Barron, president and CEO of Iowa-based Ag View Solutions, is experiencing. He believes the next couple of years will echo the last big downturn farmers weathered a decade ago.

“It’s kind of scary that 2025, ’26 and ’27 look essentially like a repeat of 2015, ’16 and ’17,” Barron says. “If you remember that time frame and made it through, buckle down because I think we’re going there again.”

He says one of the clearest signals farmers are about to experience a repeat of a decade ago is based on the 2026 cost-of-production data from Ag View Solutions’ clients, who are based in 23 U.S. states and three Canadian provinces:

Soybeans: About $11.87 per bushel based on a 65-bu. average yield
Corn: About $4.69 per bushel (before basis) on a 223-bu. average, with many growers needing at least $4.85.

Some growers raising non-GMO seed beans or getting premium contracts can still make soybeans compete. But for many farms, soybeans are the weak link in the current economic cycle.

Right now, Ag View Solutions clients are expected to plant roughly 62% of their acres to corn and 38% to soybeans for 2026 — essentially the same as 2025. Barron says he doesn’t expect many acres to shift away from this mix to more soybeans “unless something really changes.”

Given current price relationships and crop insurance guarantees, Ag View Solutions data shows about a $50-per-acre advantage to corn over soybeans for the year ahead. Even if the dollars trend lower, he says corn often pencils out better because of gross revenue and risk management tools.

More Cost Pressures Heading Into 2026

It’s no secret production costs are increasing heading into the next season. Some of the key factors include:

Overhead costs (what Barron calls ‘”return to management”) for family and employee expenses, including phones, fuel and business-paid personal expenses, are up nearly 5%. After the past year or two of what Barron describes as hard belt-tightening, he says deferred spending is “snapping back” at higher levels.

Land rents are holding mostly steady, supported by higher property taxes and outside investor demand.

Interest expense is climbing as operating lines grow.

Fertilizer costs are a mixed bag. On corn, fertilizer costs are up about 7%, even though Barron believes most farms are staying with removal-rate applications. On soybeans, he says fertility costs will be lower, mainly because growers are putting less fertilizer on their bean acres and leaning harder on corn nutrients.

Machinery and equipment costs are also inching higher for the year ahead.

This Is Not A Repeat Of The 1980s

Despite the “red” many farmers will see on their spreadsheets in the year ahead, Barron says the current period is not a repeat of the 1980s farm crisis, for two key reasons:

Farmer equity is strong. Debt-to-asset ratios remain healthy for many U.S. growers, even if cash is tight.
Many farmer exits are voluntary. Today, many farmers are choosing to retire or scale back in order to protect equity.

Barron offers a recent example: “I got a call the other day on 7,000 acres, a 45-year-old farmer saying, ‘I’m not going to do this anymore. I’ve got a $5 million equity position, and I’m not going to go for a couple more years and chew away another million dollars. I’m just going to be done.’”

Strategies for the Current Climate

To survive — and potentially thrive — in this “repeat” cycle, Barron suggests focusing on these four areas in the year ahead:

Do the high-dollar work. Barron says the “$500-an-hour” work is crunching numbers in the farm office. “Know your true costs, stress-test budgets, analyze each profit center. A few hours spent with good numbers can be worth far more than another round in the tractor,” he says.
Protect yield. He advises against cutting seed, chemistry or other inputs that protect or enhance yield “just to save a few cents per bushel.”
Right-size your operation. Barron says some of the most successful turnarounds he’s seen with operations lately have come when farmers “right-sizes” — they’re doing less, but doing it better — instead of trying to be everything to everyone.
Use collaborative models. Barron says he is seeing more farmers share equipment and labor with their neighbors to spread fixed costs without extra capital.

Opportunity Will Still Knock

During a Top Producer podcast, Barron told Host Paul Neiffer that the tight times ahead will create new land-rent opportunities for some farmers who want to expand. What commonly happens when margins get tight is some farmers pull back, and that’s when expansion possibilities open up for others.

“We’ve had numerous clients call us about opportunities to rent land and not like in small amounts. When times are tight and when things aren’t good, that’s when these opportunities present themselves,” he says.

Barron’s message for those farmers in expansion mode: have your numbers, working capital and lender relationships in order now, so if the right block of ground comes available, you can move quickly and confidently on it.

If you’re interested in the ROI spreadsheet Barron’s team uses to analyze market trends, email cbarron@agviewsolutions.com .

Hear the complete discussion between Barron and Flory on Farm Journal TV . Also, you can listen to the Top Producer podcast discussion between Barron and Neiffer at the link below:

Beyond Bushels: Align High-Yield Strategies With Your Crop Budget

Mon, 29 Dec 2025 20:31:39 GMT

A practical crop budget can serve as a valuable farming playbook, offering essential direction and guidance from planting through harvest, according to farmers and business partners David Hula and Randy Dowdy.

“Return on Investment (ROI) is the primary focus for the year ahead,” says Dowdy, who farms near Valdosta, Ga. “Everybody is trying to figure out how to survive this lean time, because we don’t have $8 corn or $15 beans.”

Start The Season Strong

For Hula, the strategy for achieving both high yields and ROI begins with selecting the right hybrids and using excellent planting practices, followed by consistent nutrition.

“You want to feel optimistic that you’re going to have high yield potential starting out,” he says. “Then, you need to make sure the crop has all the groceries it needs, because if it runs out of juice at any one time, you’ve just hit the minus button.”

Power Of Finishing The Crop

Hula highlights that another critical component of maximizing ROI, even in current tight markets, is finishing the crop well.

He shares that despite having a challenging growing season this year, his dryland acres achieved their third-best farmgate average. He attributes that to ensuring the crop received the necessary resources late in the season, especially a fungicide application.

“We felt pretty confident [the crop] was going to deliver... and that was mostly because we finished it well. We were picking 66.7 to 67 pounds test weight corn at harvest,” reports Hula, who is based near Charles City, Va.

“Finishing the crop is by far where a lot of people leave a lot of yield on the table,” adds Dowdy.

Use ‘Bushels’ To Track Costs

The current market outlook for 2026 necessitates a sharp focus on expense management, Dowdy notes.

“Obviously servicing debt is still on everybody’s mind. A farmer should never cut out anything that he or she knows makes money. But the problem is sometimes they don’t always know what that is,” he says.

When planning the budget, Hula urges growers to shift their perspective away from the cost of the input and toward the bushel return needed to justify it.

He offers, as an example: “For me to do in-furrow, that requires seven bushels. If I’m not going to get a seven-bushel return per acre, I’m not going to do it.”

Hula believes the bushel ROI mindset should be applied to all inputs. By framing decisions in terms of bushels rather than dollars, he says growers can more easily see the economic impact of each investment they make.

Make Every Input Pay Its Way

Hula and Dowdy are spending significant time this winter consulting with growers on budget strategies through their business, Total Acre . In many cases, they are stressing the importance of refining in-season input applications to make them more efficient, rather than cutting them completely.

“We can keep some of the in-season applications and make them more efficient by placement,” Dowdy says. “The goal is not merely to cut costs, but to find better, more efficient ways to invest money that directly leads to a higher ROI.”

Dowdy and Hula discuss their budgeting recommendations in more detail in their latest Breaking Barriers With R&D podcast discussion on Farm Journal TV and YouTube via the link here:

You can also hear Hula and Dowdy’s latest discussion on AgriTalk here:

Maximize Yields and Savings with Proven Nutrient Strategies

Tue, 23 Dec 2025 15:09:25 GMT

The outlook for fertilizer costs versus commodity prices for next season is a tough one for corn and soybean growers across the country.
With that fact in mind, we have compiled a number of our “best of” nutrient stories from 2025 for your consideration.

Our hope is one or more of the following five articles will help you reduce expenses, reallocate resources and build a solid fertility program for the 2026 that works well for your crops and gives you some peace of mind in the process.

26 Ways To Cut Costs Without Sacrificing Yields
If you made deep cuts to your fertility program this season, are you considering whether you can cut even deeper next year?

If so, be sure to check out this article: 26 Ideas To Cut Fertilizer Costs In 2026 . It offers a variety of suggestions from agronomists and other farmers on where you might be able to reduce product use and reallocate resources.

While there are no easy answers to address the cost of fertilizer and other inputs, having conversations with your suppliers and financial providers now can help you leverage your buying power and minimize potential impacts from marketplace uncertainties. For more insights, check out this article: Navigate 2026 Input Costs with A Proactive Strategy .

Reallocate Nutrients And Still Support Yields
Farmers know that nitrogen is the main gas that fuels corn yields. Other macronutrients and micronutrients such as zinc, iron, and manganese also contribute to yield performance. Be sure to check out our article 300-Bu. Corn Has a Big Appetite for N, P and K to learn more.

If you’re looking specifically at how to make phosphorus more efficient, be sure to check out our Farm Journal Test Plot article on the topic: 7 Tips To Make Your Phosphorus Work For You

Every agronomist says to soil test your fields to make sure they are up to the challenge of delivering profitable yields in the most cost-effective way possible. While you’ve probably heard that advice a thousand times, it’s still valuable.That’s where this article comes into play, which features national corn yield champions’ perspective: In This High-Stakes Farming Economy, Some Practices Still Deliver ROI

For even more ideas on how to create a fertility plan best-suited to your needs, check out:

The 4Rs of Fertility
Focus on fertility to prevent pollution and boost profits.

The Challenge of Nitrogen
In your quest for high yields, nothing is more crucial, or more difficult, than managing corn’s most important nutrient.

A Moving Target
Preventing corn from going hungry requires balancing nitrogen and other factors, from year to year and field to field.

The Great Escape
Stabilizers and controlled-release products help keep the Houdini of nutrients where your crop needs it.

In the “Lime” Light
Correct acidity to create diverse microbial populations, which decompose residue and release soil nutrients.

Potassium Insight
Drought emphasizes the value of this vital nutrient.

Hope on the Horizon: Farmers Anticipate 'Bridge Payment' Announcement

Tue, 02 Dec 2025 21:31:03 GMT

Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said on Tuesday that the Trump administration will announce a “bridge payment” for farmers next week that will provide short-term relief while longer trade and aid packages are finalized. The dollar amount has not been disclosed, though some groups have estimated the total amount will be in the neighborhood of $12 billion.

While many growers acknowledge the necessity of such ad-hoc payments amid mounting financial challenges, other farmers question whether the stopgap measures offer real solutions. Northeast Iowa farmer Tim Burrack says he is in both camps regarding the payments.

“Yeah, there’s people that can really use them. Everyone can use them,” says Burrack. “Our cost structure is terrible – our costs versus our returns. But in the big picture, I think these ad-hoc payments just kind of pacify us. We’re not getting real solutions.”

Farmers Want Market Opportunities
Burrack ticks off a short list of actions he believes the Trump administration needs to take that can help corn and soybean farmers. Chief among them, more export market opportunities and reduced trade barriers.

“We’re not getting our biofuel solutions,” Burrack adds. “We’re not getting E15, and now it looks like we still may allow imported feedstocks from China.”

Despite time to do so, Congress has not voted on legislation that would allow consumers across the country to access E15 year-round, according to Jed Bower, Ohio farmer and National Corn Growers Association president.

Northeast Kansas farmer Ken McCauley shares Bower’s sentiment. “President Trump has to come through on this. E15 is a no-lose deal,” says McCauley.

Like Burrack, McCauley favors the use of ad hoc payments to farmers in the short-term. “These payments do help, but I think they give a poor signal to input suppliers that we can keep this up, that everything’s going to work out. But it might not work out,” he says. “We’re talking some high numbers [of farmers at risk]. It’s not like the ‘80s, but it could get there pretty quick.”

Burrack says he is more concerned about the long-term future for American farmers and consumers, as well.

“My bigger concern is the federal government and the debt,” he says. “The issue is the American people are not prepared for the pain that’s coming because of the deficits. Either we’re going to be paying a lot more taxes, or people are going to have a lot less services, and no one wants to do either one. I don’t know how that’s going to turn out, but that’s the big concern I have.”

For more insights from Burrack and McCauley, listen to their discussion on AgriTalk with Host Chip Flory:

Avoid The Pitfall of Leasing Farmland With Low Fertility

Mon, 01 Dec 2025 22:46:59 GMT

Farmland often changes hands in the fall, and such exchanges are currently underway across the country as farmers and landlords look to finalize deals for the 2026 season. But some of the ground changing hands is in poor condition with regard to fertility, according to Ken Ferrie, Farm Journal Field Agronomist.

“I’m really shocked at how poor the stewardship is on some of these farms,” says Ferrie, who is seeing the issue in central Illinois, where he’s based. “We have seen multiple pieces of ground this fall that have been literally sucked dry of fertility and are sitting in bad shape on pH.”

While Ferrie isn’t sure how widespread the issue is, he says more farmers have reached out to him about the problem than in previous years. He attributes much of the issue to non-operating, absentee landowners who might not understand the need for good stewardship practices to keep ground productive. In other cases, he is concerned some landowners are simply interested in financial gain.

“It’s often land they inherited, [and they’re] two or three generations away from farming,” Ferrie says. “They look at it like an investment in the stock market.... In many cases, their relatives, the original landowner, would be turning over in their graves if they could see what’s happening to some of this ground.”

Conservation Practices On Rented Ground
Around 40% of all farmland in the U.S. is rented — in some U.S. counties that number is nearing 80%. According to USDA data, 283 million acres (30% of all farmland) are owned by non-operator landlords — those who own land used in agricultural production but are not actively involved in farming it.

The American Farmland Trust (AFT) reports that many non-operating landowners are unfamiliar with conservation practices or have difficulty discussing long-term goals with their renters. One survey found that 65% of non-operating landowners rely on their farm operator or someone else to make decisions on conservation practices.

“This dynamic can lead to a lack of investment in practices that improve productivity and resiliency of the land,” AFT reports. “Some of the areas with the highest rates of rental agricultural land are also those experiencing high rates of soil erosion and nutrient losses.”

Due Diligence Can Prevent A Costly Investment
Leasing land with low fertility levels can create financial hardship for unsuspecting growers. Such “hidden” costs frequently impact younger farmers who have limited resources and opportunities to rent ground.

“Many times, it’s our younger growers looking for land to expand their operation that seem to get caught up in these sucked-dry, short-term cash rent scenarios,” Ferrie says. “For short-term leases, that could be an anvil around your neck. There may not be a way to gain profitability short-term on some of these farms.”

While cash rents are softening slightly in some states for 2026, they still represent a huge investment for growers who are unlikely to see improved commodity prices to counter their investment in land and other inputs.

Table 1 provides average USDA cash rents across 4 land classes defined by soil productivity index (SPI). Average cash rents declined for the excellent, good, and average land classes while average rents slightly increased for areas classified as fair. Table 1 also provides average cash rents by land class as reported by the Illinois Society of Professional Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers (ISPFMRA). Average rents on professionally managed farmland tend to be higher than the averages reported by USDA.

(USDA and others as noted)

Ferrie’s advice for farmers looking to pick up more ground: do your homework thoroughly before signing on any dotted line. Here are three steps he recommends farmers take as they consider renting new ground for the year ahead:

1. Avoid making assumptions. “Don’t assume just because a piece of land is being managed, that stewardship is being followed,” Ferrie cautions. “Farm managers work for landlords/owners. If they want the farm taken care of so it can be passed down to future generations, they’ll make it happen. If the landlord wants the highest return without any regard to stewardship that, too, is the farm manager’s job,” he explains.

2. Ask for current soil tests and yield maps. That will provide some insights on how the ground has been treated and its general productivity.
“If the leaser is not supplying any information, talk to the neighbors, if possible. Ask whether they ever see a lime truck on the farm,” he says.

Another option is to ask the leaser if you can pull some spot soil samples to get a feel for fertility in the field.

“If the answer or situation is no, ask about a conditional lease based on soil fertility levels once you do get the field tested,” Ferrie advises.

3. Gather information about past practices on the ground. For example, Ferrie says if you no-till, you’ll want to evaluate whether there are horizontal layers present in the field.

“I’ve seen in many situations where the No. 1 hurdle is removing compaction layers left by the previous tenant,” Ferrie says. “If you rent the ground, you’ll need a plan with your agronomist on how to address that.”

Different Factors Influence Farmers Who Are Buying Land
Ferrie points out that poor soil fertility across a parcel of ground might not be as concerning for farmers who are purchasing the property.

“I’ve been told by more than one realtor and farm manager that soil fertility doesn’t matter when selling a piece of ground, and that low-fertility fields will bring the same as farms that have received good stewardship. And this is apparently true based on what I’m seeing on farms that we are testing,” he reports.

He believes the reason is those farmers often have confidence that they can bring their new ground up to speed production-wise over time. And time is on their side as most buyers make the investment planning to hold onto the ground for the long haul.

Your next read: Ag Lenders Anticipate Only Half of U.S. Farm Borrowers to Turn a Profit in 2025

New House Bill Pushes For Fertilizer Price Transparency

Thu, 20 Nov 2025 19:57:32 GMT

A companion bill to the Fertilizer Research Act has been introduced in the U.S. House of Representatives.

The House version, sponsored by U.S. Congresswoman Ashley Hinson (R-IA), echoes the same goal as the Senate’s Fertilizer Research Act of 2025 (S.2808) – to provide U.S. farmers with more clarity and certainty regarding fertilizer costs and supply.

“America’s farmers are being squeezed by high fertilizer costs and low commodity prices, making it incredibly difficult to afford the inputs needed to maintain strong yields,” Hinson said in a statement on Thursday, noting that farmers tell her they need greater fertilizer price transparency and stability.

The legislation, if passed, would require the USDA to conduct a study on the competition and trends in the fertilizer market and their subsequent impact on fertilizer prices and then provide a comprehensive report of the agency’s findings.

The study would examine market competition and trends, the impact of these trends on fertilizer prices, the size and value of the U.S. market over the past 25 years, and the impact of anti-dumping and countervailing duties on retail fertilizer prices. It would also assess market concentration and the regulatory environment.

Within one year of the bill’s passage, the Secretary of Agriculture, in consultation with the Economic Research Service, would be required to issue a report on USDA’s website regarding the U.S. fertilizer industry.

Mark Mueller , an Iowa farmer and president of the Iowa Corn Growers Association, had said during a Senate hearing last month that increases in fertilizer costs are “crushing corn growers” in Iowa and other states.

“We need to assess the fertilizer industry to better understand pricing practices, tariffs and the exertion of market power by companies within the industry,” Mueller added. “The continued commitment to highlighting the impact of fertilizer prices on corn farmers does not go unnoticed by Iowa’s corn growers.”

Co-sponsors of the bipartisan House bill included Republican Randy Feenstra of Iowa, and Democrats Nikki Budzinski of Illinois and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez of Washington.

Budzinski noted, “Fertilizer is an essential tool for farmers to maximize their crop yields, but they often lack insight into how fertilizer prices are determined – making it harder to balance their books. I’m proud to introduce this common-sense, bipartisan legislation to give our farmers more transparency and ensure that farm inputs are priced fairly.”

Hinson said that the House bill is supported by the American Soybean Association, the National Farmers Union, the Iowa Farmers Union, the Iowa Farm Bureau, the Iowa Corn Growers Association, and the Iowa Soybean Association.

Your next read: Fertilizer Prices Under Fire: Monopoly or Markets to Blame?

In This High-Stakes Farming Economy, Some Practices Still Deliver ROI

Tue, 28 Oct 2025 20:47:45 GMT

Some agronomic decisions do provide an annual return-on-investment (ROI) you can count on, according to corn yield champions David Hula and Randy Dowdy. One of those, they say, is soil testing fields in 1-acre grids and then using the resulting information to guide fertility decisions.

“If people are used to going across the field and watching a yield monitor vary significantly, say from 300 bushels down to 200 bushels in a pass, there’s a reason why that is and a lot of it has to do with soil fertility,” says Dowdy, who farms near Valdosta, Ga. “Pulling samples in a 1-acre grid can help you identify where variability is in the field better than a 2.5-acre grid or a zone sample can.”

Hula agrees and uses a medical analogy to explain the value of 1-acre grids. “It’s like the more detailed information you can get from an MRI versus an X-ray,” says Hula, who farms near Charles City, Va.

Dowdy and Hula encourage farmers to prioritize soil tests this fall, starting with any ground they own. “Every acre I own would definitely get tested, starting with the tiled ground because it’s going to give you the biggest ROI versus the not tiled ground,” Hula says.

Making Assumptions Can Be Costly
Growers who are reluctant to soil test this year because of costs might want to reconsider, as one of Hula’s recent experiences demonstrates.

Hula says he had not limed his farm ground for several years, due to a lack of product availability. “First, the lime quarries broke down, and then they ran out of lime, so we just couldn’t get it done,” he recalls.

As a result, Hula anticipated spreading 6,000 tons of lime across his corn ground this year. But instead of simply making that assumption, he pulled soil samples in 1-acre grids across 4,000 acres.

To Hula’s surprise, soil sample results showed his fields needed a lot less lime than anticipated.

“We only needed 2,600 tons of lime spread,” Hula reports. “Yes, there were costs associated with the testing, but the savings we got was more than enough to cover that.”

Dowdy and Hula, who work as partners in Total Acre , offered more money-making and saving ideas during their latest Breaking Barriers With R&D podcast, available on YouTube.

Consider Lime Type And Source
The goal, Dowdy says, is to have a soil pH in the neutral to 6.8 range across all acres. “An old timer told me a long time ago, ‘the cheapest fertilizer you’ll ever buy is lime,’ because it’s going to help you get the maximum efficacy from all your nutrients,” he explains.

If tests indicate soils need a pH adjustment, give careful consideration to the type of lime that will provide the biggest ROI in 2026.

“Understand the source of lime, whether you need magnesium or not and also understand whether it is a coarse or a fine-textured lime,” Hula advises.

The finer textured lime is what’s needed for a spring application. A coarse lime can take a couple of years to break down and become available for soil uptake.

Farmers who applied a coarse lime last fall need to be aware of that, so they don’t over-correct on lime applications this next spring. “You don’t want a situation where it all kicks in on the same year,” Hula cautions.

“Likewise, don’t use that as an excuse to not lime, if what you applied two years ago still hasn’t shown up. Understand what kind of lime or other fertility need your soils have now going into the season,” Dowdy advises.

Dowdy and Hula addressed the value of soil testing in more detail during their recent conversation with Chip Flory on this episode of AgriTalk. Listen to it here:

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From Corn to Cattle: Farmers Pivot to Create Profit

Thu, 23 Oct 2025 21:03:47 GMT

With commodity prices under pressure and input costs on the rise, many row-crop farmers are evaluating their options and looking for new revenue opportunities in the process.

For Troy and Stacy Hadrick, that required making a bold shift in their farming operation about four years ago. They started converting much of their South Dakota cropland to pasture and expanding their cowherd.

It’s a path no one would describe as easy. But as Troy puts it, “You’re going to do something hard if you’re in agriculture, so choose your hard.”

The Hadricks, based near Faulkton, say moving away from commodity corn, soybeans and wheat to a more direct, value-added beef production model is giving them more control over their product and their bottom line.

“We want to take ourselves out of the ebbs and flows of the commodity market, and we believe our beef business is viable long-term,” says Troy.

The Hadricks’ business includes selling beef direct to nine restaurants, a caterer, grocery store and even to a gas station that sells high-end meat. Learn more at hadrickranch.com/

Farmers Put Marginal Crop Ground Into Grass
As the Hadricks tried to decide whether to focus more on their beef business, and less on commodity grains, two things encouraged them to move forward with cattle: the marketplace and some of their land that’s prone to erosion.

“We started thinking about what could we do on some of this crop ground to be better stewards of that land – to think about it in a different purpose,” Troy recalls.

When the Hadricks learned about a Ducks Unlimited (DU) program that fit with their goals, they signed on to convert an additional 250 acres of cropland to pasture to feed cattle.

“They help cover the cost of that land while it’s sitting idle for a couple years, allowing the grass to establish,” Troy notes.

Bruce Toay, manager of DU conservation programs in South Dakota, says the organization is working with 58 farmers across the as part of its Working Grasslands Partnership.

DU provides annual payments to farmers for the first three years of their participation in the program, based on local CRP rates. After establishment, cooperators are able to utilize the forage by haying or grazing for the remainder of the 10-year commitment.

Payment rates reflect the land quality: in southeast South Dakota, where soils are more productive, rates can be $200 or more per acre. In the northwest part of the state, rates are usually $20 to $30 per acre.

“We can help install pipelines and tanks, and sometimes drill wells—whatever it takes to ensure a reliable water source,” Toay adds. “You can’t have a good grazing plan without water.”

Currently, South Dakota farmers have enrolled 12,000 acres with DU, which aims to expand the program to 25,000 acres. The program goes through 2029.

“We’re really pushing to find more interested cooperators and get more acres back into grass,” says Toay.

Beyond DU, other organizations investing in habitat restoration in regions of the U.S. include Pheasants Forever and Quail Forever .

More Short-Term Opportunities Wanted
While the Hadricks are finding success in a long-term strategy of moving to beef production, most U.S. farmers are exploring short-term revenue streams rather than a permanent exit from row crops.

Jay Parsons, an agricultural economist at the University of Nebraska–Lincoln, says that for most farmers, converting cropland to permanent pasture rarely pencils out—unless the goal is to leave row-crop farming altogether and sell off equipment.

“Otherwise, it makes a lot more sense to go with annual forages, because it’s easier to switch back to crops when markets change,” he notes.

In some scenarios, farmers rent their ground in the fall for cattle to come in and graze cornstalks, adds Mary Drewnoski, UNL professor and beef systems Extension specialist. Another common practice is to charge beef producers a fee to graze cattle on cover crops.

“That’s probably the simplest thing for a farmer to do – have somebody else come in with cattle and graze the fields,” she says. “Basically, you give them access and get a paycheck.”

Grazing rates can vary significantly. Drewnoski says going rate in the eastern part of Nebraska is $10 to $15 an acre. In the western part of the state, farmers can charge in the neighborhood of $30 an acre.

“It’s a matter of supply and demand, and there’s more demand there,” Drewnoski explains.

She believes row-crop growers based in any area that also supports cattle production can likely find ways to add revenue from grazing cattle, either their own animals or through leasing ground to local beef producers.

The one thing she says is of utmost importance to do in the process is to develop a clear, written lease agreement spelling out the details that can keep everyone on the same page and relationships intact.

Key terms to define in a lease agreement include the rental rate, payment schedule, specific stocking rate, along with a clear outline of responsibilities for fencing, water, and general pasture maintenance. The agreement should also cover conditions for renewal or termination and any provisions for insurance, recommends Purdue University Extension.

When executed well, Drewnoski says partnerships between row-crop growers and livestock producers can be mutually rewarding. “There can be real beauty in this if you’re a crop farmer and you find the right cattleman to partner with,” she says. “It can open up doors for you both to benefit.”

Your next read: Breeding for New Markets: How University of Minnesota is Working to Boost the Oil Content in Soybeans

8 Expert Tips for Choosing the Best Seed Corn for 2026

Fri, 17 Oct 2025 16:08:43 GMT

Think of seed selection for next year as an opportunity for profit enhancement. With low commodity prices and higher input costs, identifying corn hybrids that are a good fit for your soil types and environmental conditions is more important than ever – and can give you a leg up on higher yields from the get-go next spring.

Here are eight top tips Farm Journal Field Agronomist Ken Ferrie offers that will help you in your seed corn selection process.

1. Put performance and yield performance above the price. Yes, seed corn is expensive, but focus on what the hybrid can deliver instead of how much cheaper one hybrid is over another and pencil out the potential ROI.

“If I ask a grower what hybrids he is going to plant and he reels off a list of maturity ranges, rather than specific hybrids or traits, I know he spent too much time looking for the best deal and too little time seeking the best performers,” Ferrie says.

2. Spread your risk. Midwest corn growers often plant their crop in five to seven days so don’t plant just one or two outstanding hybrids. That could create the unacceptable risk of all your corn pollinating at the same time and being subject to heat and other stresses that are present at that point.

“Not long ago, one hybrid had two big years, so growers planted a lot of it the following season,” Ferrie says. “Only then did they discover that the hybrid couldn’t handle 96°F temperatures during pollination and ear fill — it got kicked in the teeth on yield. That hybrid still won a lot of plots that year, but only in northern areas, where temperatures were cooler. If a disease problem had shown up, growers could have managed it by applying a fungicide; but you can’t manage against heat.”

3. Make new hybrids prove themselves. Don’t build your whole starting lineup for next season with hybrid rookies or one-hit wonders.

“Put a few of them on the bench, and keep them on a small number of acres until they prove their way,” Ferrie advises.

“Also, don’t throw out hybrids just because you’ve been told they’re old, and that the new kid is here to replace them. Keep those hybrids as long as they continue to perform, and make the new kids earn their way into the lineup through performance,” he adds.

Back to spreading risk — once your draft board is picked from multiple maturities, and are all-star performers, then group them into early- mid- and late-season hybrids so you have a large pool of hybrid candidates to choose from.

4. Use information from test plots. The purpose of test plots is to help guide your seed choices for next year. But you must know the right way to use the information.

“First, understand the difference between show plots and test plots,” Ferrie advises. “Don’t make your seed choices based only on show plots. Show plots have value in demonstrating higher-end genetics. But they are planted next to a road to show off hybrids in ideal conditions.

“Show plots may have received extra nitrogen and two fungicide applications. If you don’t sidedress nitrogen or apply fungicides on your own farm, show plot results may be meaningless to you.”

Study actual test plots that were planted with soil, climate and management practices similar to your own. Taking factors like these into account may add another 15 bu. or 20 bu. per acre, compared with picking hybrids based on general plot performance, Ferrie says.

Although test plots are valuable, it’s possible to rely on them too much, he cautions. “Weather makes hybrids shine,” he says. “Look at regional plot data over a period of years. It will tell you if a hybrid is not suited for your conditions, such as high temperatures.”

5. Make sure you are getting a mix of genetics. When analyzing test plot data, keep in mind that genetically identical hybrids may be marketed by several companies.

“I have seen growers plant the three or four top hybrids in local plots and then discover they all contained the same genetics, only from different companies,” Ferrie says. “That does not diversify risk.”

To avoid planting identical genetics from several companies, check the seed tags. Under the Federal Seed Act, companies are required to include the unique variety name (as opposed to the company’s brand name or number).

You also can ask your seedsman to help identify similar genetic lines sold by other companies. Or you can buy all your hybrids from one company.

6. Consider each field’s environment and match it to your hybrids. Look at each individual field and make a list of its strengths and weaknesses.

“We need to add players to the team that will help strengthen the weak areas in our present hybrid lineup,” Ferrie says. “In the process of truly identifying a field’s weaknesses and strengths, the farm management, operators, and the pest team must come together and compare notes.”

The reason to involve those various individuals or teams is because each one has a different perspective on what’s important and needed in a hybrid and in each specific field.

“Management may be looking at volume discounts or non-GMO contracts; whereas, the operating crew is looking at how tough it is to get corn up in a certain field or how quick it runs out of water in another. Likewise, the pest team may be concerned about diseases or resistant weeds that they are trying to control,” Ferrie explains.

7. Follow your plan and keep good records. “Often, I see growers lay out a nice plan, showing where each hybrid is going to go, based on soil conditions,” Ferrie says. “But in the stress of planting season, they fail to plant each hybrid where they intended.

“This leads to all kinds of unfavorable consequences. I’ve witnessed growers put a hybrid that resists deer damage next to a highway instead of next to their woods. Others plant herbicide-resistant hybrids where conventional hybrids were supposed to go, leading to misapplication of herbicides,” Ferrie says. “Losing track of which hybrids go where has caused some growers to plant their refuge hybrids without an insecticide.”
As you implement your plan, record keeping is critical.

“If planting conditions force you to deviate from your plan, be diligent in recording what you did. It will keep you from spraying a conventional hybrid with Roundup or Liberty herbicide or failing to apply an insecticide on conventional hybrids,” Ferrie says.

With newer planter monitors, you can build an as-applied map, showing what hybrid was planted in each field, on which date.
“If you have an older planter, you can record this information in a book in the tractor cab,” Ferrie says. “Some growers do both, in case they have a computer problem and lose some data.”

8. Make sure you utilize your best resource – your seedsman. Many farmers don’t use their seedsman enough, Ferrie contends.

He says there are a lot of good seedsmen out there, and they understand their products. Most have seen all of their hybrids under a variety of conditions and management styles, and they can relate that experience to your operation.

“Discuss your situation and your management techniques, such as your rotation, tillage and fertility program. Talk about your harvest schedule and things like how much wet corn you can handle,” he says.

Drill down and ask about hybrid strengths and weaknesses—like disease and insect resistance, drought tolerance, emergence and standability. “If you identify a top-yielding hybrid, ask your seedsman how you can farm out its weakness and manage around it,” Ferrie advises.

Darrell Smith contributed to this article.

Your next read: Manage Corn Yield Drag with Hybrid Selection

Corn Growers' New Leader Says Profitability Is Top Priority

Wed, 08 Oct 2025 21:54:40 GMT

The new farmer leader for the National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) says profitability is his No. 1 priority as he starts his one-year term and plans for the year ahead.

“It’s just not where it needs to be at the farm level. We’re looking at a 90-some-cent loss per bushel as we look at next year’s crop to put out,” says Jed Bower, NCGA president and a fifth-generation farmer from Fayette County, Ohio.

While Bower says export numbers are good, he notes the market doesn’t reflect that positive picture, and more opportunity for U.S. corn is needed.

It’s why, during a recent conversation with USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins, Bower encouraged her to “go after the big players” domestically and abroad to boost market opportunities for corn.

“We need to move large volumes. The small volumes are great, but large volumes are going to be what helps rural America,” Bower told AgriTalk Host Chip Flory earlier this week.

For the same reason – to boost profitability – Bower says NCGA continues to encourage Congress to pass legislation that would increase consumer access to higher blends of ethanol year-round.

Corn grower leaders have repeatedly claimed that one of the quickest ways to create more demand for corn is by passing the Nationwide Consumer and Fuel Retailer Choice Act of 2025. It would remove an outdated regulation under the Clean Air Act that bans the sale of fuel with 15% ethanol blends during the summer months.

“We’re pushing for this E15 thing – almost had it over the line last December,” Bower says. “We’re close again, but there’s just so many things that aren’t going on in Washington right now that we need to keep having those conversations.”

Positive Action By California Governor Newsom
Significant encouragement regarding E15 came by way of Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-Calif.) just last week, when he signed a bill on Oct. 2 legalizing fuels with 15% ethanol blends.

“The potential volume for California alone is just tremendous,” Bower says. “I never thought I would be thanking the governor of California for signing that in, you know. That’s just not something that was on my radar, and I’m super pumped about it.”

Bower’s hope is the support Newsom gives for E15 puts leverage on the Trump administration and Congress to act immediately.

“Because, as we’ve talked numerous times, E15 cost taxpayers nothing,” Bower says. “It lowers the cost of gas at the pump for all their constituents, and for every 1% that we raise the blend, you’ve got 450-plus million bushels more grind. That helps make our corn worth a little more, and in turn, that strengthens rural America.”

The Need For More Trade And Fewer Regulatory Hurdles
During Bower’s time on AgriTalk, Flory asked him about his initial interactions with USDA Secretary Rollins and Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lee Zeldin.

Bower says Rollins “appears to be a quick study,” and he appreciates how much she is advocating in the world marketplace on behalf of U.S. agricultural products.

“I think that is huge,” Bower told Flory. “We’ve seen Brazil doing that the past couple years for their products, and beating us to a lot of punches. We really appreciate Secretary Rollins for taking the time to travel around the world to push American ag products.”

Regarding Secretary Zeldin, Bower says he looks forward to meeting him in the near future, and that Zeldin seems to be bringing “common sense” back to the regulatory playing field.

“A lot of these regulations drive up the cost of what we need to do as farmers,” Bower says. “Secretary Zeldin has been accessible to a lot of our staff, and I’m looking forward to diving into some of the regulatory issues we have and see if we can’t get a little more relief in some of those areas.”

For more insights into Bower’s perspective on market opportunities for corn and his hope for reducing regulatory pressures on farmers, be sure to listen to his conversation with Flory on AgriTalk, available here:

Tiny Tech, Big Impact: Purdue Researchers Harness Nanotechnology to Transform Farming

Tue, 07 Oct 2025 00:01:41 GMT

At Purdue University, researchers are working at the tiniest scale to tackle some of agriculture’s biggest challenges. While their innovations may be microscopic, their impact could transform how the world grows its food.

Unlocking the Power of Nanoparticles in the Field

Tucked away in a quiet upstairs lab, scientists are developing “nanocarriers"— ultra-tiny particles designed to deliver pesticides, fungicides and herbicides more precisely to plants.

“We work with agrochemicals from insecticides to fungicides and [are] even starting to work with herbicides now,” says Caleb Fretz, a Purdue PhD student. “The goal is to try to increase the delivery efficiency of those active ingredients using nano delivery as a way of getting them to their biological targets.”

Currently, less than 0.1% of pesticides actually reach their intended targets. Purdue’s team hopes to boost that to 1% or more — a tenfold leap that could revolutionize efficiency and cut costs for farmers.

“If we can get even 1% of our pesticide to its target, that’s a huge leap in efficiency,” adds Luke Johnson, a fellow PhD student in Agricultural and Biological Engineering.

Assistant professor Kurt Ristroph , who leads related nanotechnology work at Purdue, highlights the broader vision.

“Our team’s focus on nanocarriers could make crop agriculture more sustainable and climate-resilient,” he says.

Precision Targeting: How Nano-Encapsulation Works

These particles, often organic and built with a protective shell, are engineered to shield and deliver their active ingredients exactly where crops need them most. The nano-shells allow them to travel through a plant’s leaf, stem and roots to get closer to the target.

Citrus Greening, a disease currently devastating orange trees in Florida, often takes up residence in the tree’s phloem. That area is traditionally a hard-to-access region where pests and diseases hide.

“We can tune what we put on the surface and the size [of the particle] to better reach those targets,” Johnson says.

They’re also able to engineer surface charges and add biomolecules, like sugars, in order to direct treatments to precise locations inside plants.

“If we can translocate our nanopesticide through the leaf, stem and down to the roots where pests lay eggs, we can dramatically reduce the amount of chemicals needed,” explains fellow researcher Bilal Ahmed.

Tracking these particles is also crucial as the technology prepares to undergo regulatory approval.

“I am developing ways to track these particles using metals, tagging them with different receptors,” Fretz says. “That way, we know exactly where they go — whether to the roots, inside the phloem or elsewhere.”

Collaboration and the Road to Sustainable Agriculture

This research is part of a larger collaboration across academia, industry and government.

Ristroph recently organized a major symposium on nanotechnology for plant drug delivery, with findings published in Nature Nanotechnology.

“The precise delivery enabled by nanotechnology could revolutionize agriculture,” notes Professor Greg Lowry from Carnegie Mellon University, a co-author of the study. “But, there are still technical challenges we must address.”

For Purdue’s team, practical application is just as important as scientific discovery.

“It needs to be something you can load in your sprayer and apply just like current formulations,” Fretz says.

The aim is to make the transition seamless for farmers, enabling quick adoption and scaling.

As agriculture faces rising costs, climate variability, and a need to limit environmental impact, this nano-scale innovation offers hope.

“We want to apply less pesticide, less often —improving farmers’ bottom lines and reducing chemicals in the environment,” Johnson says.

It’s a tiny idea with the potential for a giant leap in global farming — one that could make agriculture more efficient, affordable and sustainable for generations to come.

Fertilizer Decisions: Balance Costs, Yields and Sustainability

Mon, 29 Sep 2025 20:11:35 GMT

Illinois farmers will invest approximately $229 per acre on fertilizer for corn and $61 per acre for soybean nutrients in 2026, according to a recent survey conducted by University of Illinois agricultural economists.

The projected costs for growers are slightly elevated from 2025, reflecting farmer sentiment in Illinois and across the Midwest. Seventy-three percent of the 262 farmers surveyed expect higher fertilizer costs in the year ahead.

Fertilizer prices have come down from 2022 peaks but remain high relative to crop prices, notes Gary Schnitkey, professor and agricultural economist. That fact is what makes prices today such a high pain point for growers.

“If you go back and compare anhydrous ammonia prices to what they were in 2017 through 2020, they are still higher than back then, and we had roughly the same corn price. So you’re going to see that cause a tilting away from corn profitability,” says Schnitkey. He adds that the costs cited are based on data reported by the USDA Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS).

The next three slides show Illinois fertilizer costs for nitrogen, DAP and MAP, and potash. Paulson and Schnitkey say Extension economists in other parts of the country are also able to provide farmers with state-specific cost information for key nutrients:

Some individual farmers got bids for anhydrous ammonia earlier this month in the $730 to $740 range, Schnitkey reports.

(University of Illinois)

In the case of DAP, farmers have seen a “pretty significant increase from kind of the low $800 range to the high $800 range just in this calendar year,” Paulson says.