China

Trump Confirms He's Delaying China Visit By "Five or Six Weeks" Amid Iran Conflict

Tue, 17 Mar 2026 18:28:54 GMT

President Donald Trump announced Tuesday that he is postponing his long-anticipated trip to China by “five or six weeks,” citing the ongoing war with Iran as the reason for the delay. The summit, originally scheduled for late March, has been pushed back as the administration focuses on addressing escalating tensions in the Middle East.

JUST IN: WASHINGTON (AP) - Trump says he is delaying his trip to China until later next month as he focuses on the war in Iran.
— AgDay TV (@AgDayTV) March 17, 2026

“We’re resetting the meeting, and it looks like it’ll take place in about five weeks,” Trump told reporters, adding that China “were fine with it.”

The president had requested the delay during a Monday meeting in the Oval Office with Irish Prime Minister Micheál Martin, emphasizing the conflict requires his attention in Washington.

Trump on his visit to China:

Because of the war, I want to be here. I feel I have to be here.

And so we’ve requested that we delay it a month or so. pic.twitter.com/LYtj1V00aP
— Clash Report (@clashreport) March 16, 2026

When asked if he still planned to travel to Beijing later this month, Trump said: “I don’t know. We’re working on it right now. We’re speaking to China. I’d love to, but because of the war, I want to be here, I have to be here, I feel. We’ve requested we delay it a month or so ... I’m looking forward to being with them. We have a very good relationship ... there’s no tricks to it either. It’s not like ‘Oh gee, I’m waiting.’ It’s very simple: We have a war going on. I think it’s important I be here.”

Soybeans Saw Limit-Down Day For First Time in 17 Years

While soybeans were in the green on Tuesday, the news was enough to spark a sell-off in soybeans — closing down 70¢ on Monday. According to Ag Trader Talk’s Garrett Toay, soybeans closing in a limit-down move hadn’t happened in 17 years — since January 2009.

Leading up to Trump’s remarks on Monday, there was hope the planned meeting would secure China’s commitment to buy more soybeans.

The postponement comes as Trump intensifies efforts to assemble an international coalition to secure shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key passage for global oil flows that has been threatened by Iranian activity. The administration is urging allies to provide naval support to ensure the safe transit of tankers, highlighting the importance of energy market stability.

However, Trump’s call for international cooperation has been met with resistance. Germany, Japan, Italy and Australia have declined to participate, while the United Kingdom and other nations are signaling caution about becoming involved in a broader conflict. Trump criticized this reluctance as a test of allied commitment after decades of U.S. security guarantees.

China, a major consumer of Middle Eastern oil, has been a particular focus of Trump’s outreach. In a recent interview with the Financial Times, the president said Beijing should help restart tanker traffic through the Strait following disruptions caused by Iran. While U.S.-China relations remain tense after a year of tariff threats, Chinese officials have maintained only cautious communication about the postponed visit. Spokesperson Lin Jian stated Monday that China and the U.S. “are maintaining communication regarding President Trump’s visit to China,” without addressing the Strait of Hormuz issue.

For farmers and agribusinesses, the delay carries tangible implications. Not only did the news impact soybean prices this week, but rising fuel and fertilizer costs, along with disruptions to global trade, could impact the export of U.S. crops — creating deeper uncertainty.

China Signals Potential Boost in U.S. Ag Purchases

Amid the postponement of the Trump-Xi summit, China is reportedly signaling openness to buying more American farm products, even as broader geopolitical tensions remain high. Sources say officials tied to Presidents Trump and Xi held what they described as “remarkably stable” talks over the weekend in Paris, with agriculture emerging as a key topic.

China is reportedly considering increasing purchases of U.S. goods such as beef, poultry and other crops, while remaining committed to major soybean imports in the years ahead. Cotton responded positively to that news, posting new contract highs.

However, uncertainty still clouds the outlook. Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, coupled with lingering trade disputes between Washington and Beijing, could complicate progress on large-scale deals.

Soybeans remain a focal point, with questions about the timing of renewed, large-scale buying. Markets are watching closely, and any headline developments in U.S.-China agricultural trade could trigger significant price volatility.

Soybeans as a “Trade Token”?

Brian Grete of Comstock Investments offered perspective on the China-U.S. soybean dynamic, noting short-term market moves may not reflect the long-term picture. Just last week, soybean prices were fueled by news Brazil was slowing shipments of soybeans to China and warned the situation may be overbought.

“Longer term, I don’t think that slowing down Brazilian shipments is bullish,” Grete says. “They have a record crop, about 180 million tons, give or take, and that supply will eventually reach the global market, with China as the biggest buyer. Ride the wave while you can and make some sales as prices rise, because when it crashes, it may crash hard.”

On China’s potential buying of U.S. soybeans, Grete emphasizes politics may outweigh economics.

“This was a request from China’s agriculture ministry to Brazil’s ag ministry to increase phytosanitary requirements,” he explains. “China is trying to slow down Brazilian bean shipments. People say it doesn’t make sense for China to buy U.S. beans economically. But honestly, soybeans mean more politically for President Trump than for China. China will use soybeans as a trade token.”

U.S. Soybeans at a Crossroads: Navigating China Trade and Brazil’s Rise

Thu, 12 Feb 2026 14:27:14 GMT

Deglobalization is nothing new in agriculture — the U.S. has been losing export share for decades. As rapid expansion and modernization continue around the world, the ag industry is navigating new pressures and opportunities to remain competitive. Experts who work directly in global trade say American farmers need to recognize what’s changing and what it could mean for their operations.

China Trade Framework Details

U.S. farmers were excited when President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi struck a trade truce and framework in South Korea on Oct. 30, especially the 12 MMT of soybean purchases . However, the lack of clarity on if the commitments were for the calendar year or the marketing year left the market in disarray.

At the 2026 Top Producer Summit, Jiang Lyu, minister for economic and commercial affairs at the Chinese Embassy in the U.S., confirmed the 12 MMT is for the current marketing year.

“You do hear those numbers from President Trump, Secretary Bessent and others,” Lyu says. “All I can share with you is that China is pretty sincere in terms of having a relationship that is anchored on mutual respect, reciprocity and, most importantly, mutual benefit. We believe stability in this trade relationship, including in the ag trade, is very important, and we hope this mutually beneficial relationship will continue.”

To date, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer says China has purchased 12 MMT, but the purchases have only been made by Sinograin and Cofco, which are government entities. The 13% reciprocal tariffs China still has on U.S. soybeans makes it unfeasible for private crushers to buy and is 10% higher than the tariffs on Brazilian soybeans. The question remains, when will China eliminate that tariff?

Lyu says he’s not sure on the timing, but that China would like to advance discussions between the two countries to the point that tariff could be eliminated. There is hope that can happen when the two leaders meet in April.

“This is, to borrow your word, a trade truce,” said Lyu. “So the truce has a time of one year. We would like this one year to be extended and preferably into eternity.”

Opportunities to Expand China Trade

The Chinese market is ripe for expanding trade, according to Lyu, through new areas of U.S. and China agricultural cooperation. He cites platforms, such as the China International Import Expo, will bring new opportunities for U.S. agriculture.

The China-U.S. economic and trade relations benefit both sides when they cooperate, adds the minister, but harm both when they are confrontational. However, he says the Chinese market has broad prospects and large capacity, and bilateral trade meets mutual needs.

China to Buy 8 MMT More Soybeans?

Meanwhile, President Trump posted via social media on Feb. 3 that China had agreed to buy another 8 MMT of old-crop soybeans from the U.S. Why would China purchase from the U.S. when Brazil’s soybeans are over $1 cheaper than U.S. soybeans?

While this doesn’t make economic sense, Susan Stroud with No Bull Ag says these political goodwill purchases are being made by government entities to put in their reserve. Lyu says the relationship needs to be stabilized before moving forward.

“China and the U.S. need to reposition their relationship overall so that we have a bigger-picture arrangement in which China is no longer considered as a rival competitor to an extent, not a rival or enemy of the United States,” Lyu says. “There are so many things happening here that also hamper China’s interest, such as Chinese exports into this country or the Chinese investment into this country, so we would like this relationship to be totally benign.”

Under the latest trade framework, China is also expected to buy 25 MMT of U.S. soybeans for the following three years.

“If you consider the potential for 25 million metric ton per year in three subsequent years that’s still well below the five-year average,” Stroud says. “China has yet to confirm any of these amounts that have been touted by Washington.”

There’s still the lingering question about what happens after that? The U.S. is already a secondary supplier of soybeans to China behind Brazil.

Brazil Primary Supplier of Soybeans to China

Brazil is producing over 6.5 billion bushels of soybeans annually, and Stroud says their rapid conversion of pastureland into soybean production has reshaped global flows.

“A 5% average increase in soy area annually has taken them from an emerging market to a global powerhouse in the blink of an eye,” she explains.

Brazil first outexported the U.S. in 2012. Today, exports more than double the U.S. program. Since the last trade war, Stroud says Brazil has added 30 million acres of soybeans, which is a harvested area larger than the top four U.S. soybean states combined in 2025.

“In the past 25 years, Brazil has accounted for half of all of soybean global area expansion,” Stroud says. “When you have a tremendous growth in production, naturally, you’re getting rid of it via export.”

Stroud says Brazil is actively making infrastructure improvements from farm to port to not only accommodate its expanding production but also improve efficiency. China actively has a hand in this as Brazil is their number one supplier of soybeans. On average, 50% of Brazil’s total soy demand is exported to China compared with one in four bushels of U.S. soybean demand.

Brazil Has Room to Expand Soybean Acres

Brazil has the potential to expand acreage by converting an available 70 million acres of degraded pasture to cropland. Aaron Edwards with Santos Springs LLC says Brazil’s growth is far from over.

“For every acre of row-crop land, there’s two acres of degraded pasture,” Edwards says. “Without any deforestation, a significant amount of that land could become row crops.”

Agronomically, he says, with a few tons of lime, phosphorus and minimum tillage, in two or three crops these fields could be producing on par with Midwestern “I” states.

“Every acre you bring into soybean production, about one-third also become double-crop corn or double-cropped cotton acres,” Edwards adds. “Brazil expansion is a bear.”

Then there’s the potential of improvements via irrigation. He’s hearing estimates of 10 million acres going under pivot within the next decade.

“It’s a tropical climate, so one acre of irrigation is three crops a year, depending on the mix, or seven crops in two years,” Edwards explains. “That right there is 30 million acres equivalent of production.”

Currently, they have less than 15% on-farm storage and that leaves potential for better margin management on the table.

“Basis swings on soybeans are $2 to $3,” Edwards says. “Margins can increase just by putting in on-farm storage and managing basis.”

It takes a massive amount of capital investment to drive acreage and yield growth, he adds, but it creates long-term supply pressure in global oilseeds.

The Brazil “Paradox:” Expansion Amid Bankruptcies

The paradox, Edwards says, is how does Brazil rapidly expand amid bankruptcies, but he thinks the two can coexist.

“The primary economic incentive isn’t operating margins — it’s land appreciation from converting pasture to cropland,” he says.

He thinks cash flows and aggressive expansion increase supply and lower prices, making periodic financial stress inevitable.

“The land appreciation of developing these lands is what’s causing the expansion, causing the bankruptcies and putting soybeans on the market at such a cheap price,” Edwards explains. “However, the microeconomic incentives of expansion are there as long as there’s land appreciation.”

Rethinking Global Competition in Soybeans

The U.S. still has structural advantages such as infrastructure and logistics, plus capital, strong risk management and supportive policy, according to Edwards.

“The U.S. is still the best place to do business, and at the end of the day, you run a business,” he adds. “We have better logistics, better capital markets, better infrastructure, better risk management tools and more supportive policy. Those are the things that allow you to run a successful business.”

With that said, Edwards says farmers might have to rethink global competition. This includes who produces the most soybeans, and who delivers the cheapest export supply? Where can farmers sustainably build profitable enterprises? He says leadership in volume doesn’t always equal leadership in farm profitability.

U.S. Needs to Pivot to Domestic Demand

The U.S. is already expanding crush a projected 30% in the next few years to process bean oil to meet the growing demand for low-carbon fuels. Stroud says that might be one of the best options for the U.S. to find more domestic demand and decrease its dependence on China and exports.

“Right now, we’re about 50% of the way there in the buildout,” Stroud says. “This marketing year, we are adding 115 million bushels of annual crush capacity. Compare that with typical exports to China in the 1-billion-bushel range and there’s really no comparison. But, we are moving the needle.”

She cautions this growth is policy dependent, but the U.S. is also exporting more soybean meal than ever before.

Argentina Viewpoint

Lee Trimmer with Green Shoots LLC has spent the last 25 years working in Argentina.

“We have great soils, we’re close to the ports and we can create crops at a better price than other places,” he says. “Honestly, it comes down to who can do it cheaper.”

However, there is a paradigm shift happening with Brazil becoming the largest exporter. As farmers, he says, they have had to reinvent their business model.

Trimmer says Argentina is also one of the most complex and unforgiving places to be a farmer. His plan was to buy machinery, build a storage facility, stay away from livestock, and try to start buying land. However, the business he built in Argentina was the exact opposite.

He says the key to staying competitive has been to find great mentors. He is also involved in a peer group in Argentina known as CREA in which farmers open up their farms to bring valuable experiences to other farmers. They talk about what works or doesn’t work on their farms and provide other advice.

“I think a lot of it has to come down to farmer savvy, education, getting to know your peers, finding niches and getting ideas from other producers,” Trimmer says.

He told farmers at Top Producer Summit they can’t do anything about trade wars with China or Brazil increasing exports every year. But they can look to their own farms and make changes that open up new opportunities.

“I encourage farmers to put time and money into educating themselves, not just on producing more bushels. Dig down deeper to make your farm and legacy resilient for the future,” he says.

Economists Forecast Farm Economy to Stabilize, But High Costs and Policy Uncertainty Block a 2026 Rebound

Wed, 07 Jan 2026 18:26:39 GMT

As 2026 ushers in a fresh start, agricultural economists say the U.S. farm economy has stopped sliding, but it’s far from fully healed.

The December Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor shows month-to-month sentiment is improving, but deep structural strain remains — especially in row crops. Meanwhile, livestock markets continue to provide strength. Crop producers face another year of tight margins driven by high input costs, weak prices and unresolved trade and policy uncertainty.

“There’s cautious optimism,” the economists say, “but very little belief that 2026 will bring a meaningful rebound without cost relief or stronger demand.”

Those themes mirror the perspective of Seth Meyer, former USDA chief economist and now director of the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at the University of Missouri. In a recent interview, Meyer connected the dots between narrow margins, policy responses and what might actually move the dial for U.S. agriculture heading into 2026.

Stabilizing, Not Recovering

December Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lori Hayes )

Economists see the ag economy holding its ground — but not gaining strength.

54% say the ag economy is somewhat better than one month ago.
Compared with a year ago:
- 42% say conditions are worse
- 33% say they are better
Looking ahead 12 months:
- 46% expect conditions unchanged
- 38% expect improvement
- 15% expect conditions to worsen

“Momentum has improved since mid-2025,” Meyer notes, “but tight margins have been with us for a long time. Turning that around requires demand growth, not just price stabilization.

Farm Journal’s December Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lori Hayes )

Grant Gardner, assistant Extension professor at the University of Kentucky, tells AgriTalk’s Chip Flory: “I think as we move into kind of this next marketing year, you’re looking at what looks like a breakeven and not a loss, but breakeven still doesn’t look great after three years of breakeven or losses.”

He says even with the $11 billion in Farmer Bridge Program payments , it won’t drastically change the outlook for the farm economy.

“Purdue had a good survey about a month ago, where they looked at what were these payments going to go to, and research would show that a lot of these payments go into long-term assets, and so land tractors, but I think over 60% of producers right now are in such a tight cash crunch that you’re going to see a lot of these payments go into that short-term debt,” Gardner says.

Consolidation a Growing Threat

Economists are nearly unanimous that the crop sector remains under extreme financial stress. 83 percent say row crops are currently in a recession. That isn’t about production declines — acres and yields haven’t collapsed — but about persistently weak profitability.

“Negative returns for at least the third consecutive year across nearly all row crops,” one economist wrote in the survey.

Another said: “Margins remain below full costs of production for many producers.”

Farm Journal’s December Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lori Hayes)

Meyer traces that back to how abruptly agriculture moved from the high prices of 2021 and 2022 into today’s tighter margins.

“We moved very quickly from a very high price environment and good profitability in 2022 to very tight margins,” he says. “That usually happens coming off price peaks, but this time it happened really rapidly.”

A minority of survey respondents argued farms are “treading water,” supported by strong land values and government aid rather than eroding further, which Meyer acknowledged aligns with how risk and safety nets have interacted this year.

But when you look at how the current stress in the farm economy could impact consolidation, the ag economists say it’s the economic pressure combined with demographic trends causing the acceleration. In fact, 92% of them say consolidation is underway and unavoidable.

“Markets go to the lowest-cost producers,” one economist wrote. “That sorting is consolidation on the production side.”

Aging producers exiting and rent-heavy operations under pressure only add fuel to that trend, with one economist saying: “Consolidation happens because producers have to exit, not because they want to.

What’s Driving the Farm Economy Right Now

When economists were asked to identify the two most important factors shaping agriculture’s economic health today, their responses clustered around a familiar, but increasingly sharp, divide: strong demand in livestock and the protein sector versus persistent oversupply and cost pressure in crops, all layered with trade and policy uncertainty.

Several economists pointed to continued strength in beef demand, both domestically and through export channels, as a key stabilizing force. While the dairy sector is an area that shows signs of weakness for 2026.

“Livestock revenues are a bright spot,” one respondent noted, underscoring why the livestock sector continues to outperform crops financially.

Looking to 2026, economists overwhelmingly point to input costs, not interest rates, as the biggest barrier to profitability. Nearly 70% cited input prices as the largest challenge as well, far ahead of trade concerns or capital availability.

Farm Journal’s December Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lori Hayes )

“We have too much supply and not enough demand for row crops,” one economist wrote.

Another said: “Input costs are still too high.”

Trade remains a central wild card, especially relationships with China and uncertainty around global supply. Several respondents cited trade disputes and agreements as critical factors, along with questions about the size of South American crops and how that could shape global competition in the months ahead.

Policy uncertainty was also featured prominently, with economists pointing to domestic biofuels policy, government payments and broader market signals as factors influencing both short-term cash flow and longer-term demand growth.

Overall, economists say the ag economy is being pulled in opposite directions: strong livestock demand providing support, while crops struggle under high costs, oversupply and unresolved trade and policy questions — a dynamic that helps explain why the broader farm economy feels stable, but far from healthy, as 2026 approaches.

Livestock: A Continued Bright Spot

Livestock continues to stand out as the most financially healthy segment of the ag economy. Every economist surveyed rated beef as above average or excellent, supported by strong domestic demand and tight supplies. Dairy and pork were viewed as stable to moderately strong.

That success creates a stark contrast with row crops, where corn and cotton were cited by 38% each as the commodities most at risk financially in 2026.

What Could Move Crop Prices in the Next Six Months

Looking ahead to the first half of 2026, economists say crop prices will hinge less on domestic fundamentals and more on global supply, trade flows and policy clarity.

Across responses, South America emerged as the dominant influence, with economists repeatedly citing Brazilian weather, the size of the South American harvest and how those supplies compete with U.S. exports. Several noted that clarity around South American production will be critical in setting price direction for corn, soybeans and wheat.

Trade, particularly with China, remains another key swing factor. Economists emphasized not just the announcement of trade agreements, but whether purchases translate into actual shipments.

“China purchases of U.S. crops, but also if and when actual shipments occur,” one respondent noted, adding that details within any trade deal, including purchase commitments, will matter just as much as headlines.

Domestic factors still play a role, but economists see them as secondary in the near term. Input prices, early U.S. planting conditions and assumptions about 2026 acreage were all cited as important — especially as markets begin to trade expectations for next year’s crop mix.

Policy uncertainty also hangs over the outlook. Economists pointed to ongoing questions around trade policy, biofuels policy and broader economic conditions as variables that could amplify or mute price moves.

Economists say crop prices over the next six months are likely to be driven by how global supply unfolds, whether export demand materializes and how quickly policy uncertainty is resolved, rather than by any single domestic production shock.

Biofuels Policy: A Potential Turning Point?

One of the clearest themes Meyer highlights as a possible game changer for demand, and ultimately prices, is biofuels policy.

For economists, policy levers like year-round E15, Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) volumes, 45Z investment tax credits and how small refinery exemptions are handled could meaningfully influence demand for corn and soybeans in 2026 and beyond.

“It’s one of the places where policymakers actually have levers to help with tight margins in the row crop sector,” Meyer says.

He emphasizes that final rules on RFS volumes and how biobased credits are implemented could impact feedstock demand.

“For the next couple of crop seasons, RVO (Renewable Volume Obligations) and how EPA reallocates small refinery exemptions are big factors,” Meyer says. “Should we raise the RVO to soak up that pool like a sponge? Should imported feedstocks get full 45Z credit? Those decisions could move demand.”

On year-round E15, a long-sought policy priority for corn growers, Meyer is cautiously optimistic.

“I do think it matters,” he says. “Maybe it’s not a huge swing this year, but offering certainty and building demand over multiple seasons is supportive. Other countries like Brazil are ramping up their biofuels production too, so this isn’t happening in a vacuum.”

Policy Uncertainty Still Looms

Economists also flagged top priorities for 2026 policy action:

Year-round E15 (row crops)
Trade policy clarity (row crops & livestock)
Labor reform and regulatory issues (livestock)

They also highlighted under-covered risks, which include pressure on land rents and values, labor shortages, biofuels policy details (such as 45Z credits) and slower population growth affecting long-term demand.

What Could Move Livestock and Dairy Prices in the Next Six Months

When economists look ahead to livestock and dairy markets in early 2026, they see a mix of strong demand signals, supply-side risks and policy uncertainty shaping price direction.

Consumer demand remains the cornerstone of the outlook, particularly for beef. Several economists pointed to continued buying interest from U.S. consumers as the primary support for cattle prices, even as affordability pressures rise. At the same time, some warned that a more “K-shaped” economy could begin to shift demand, pulling some consumers away from beef and toward pork.

Supply dynamics and herd trends are another major focus. Economists cited herd size, potential herd expansion and the availability of feeder cattle as critical variables. The expected resumption of feeder cattle imports from Mexico was highlighted as a key factor that could influence cattle supplies and pricing, depending on timing and volume.

Animal health risks also remain on the radar. Issues such as avian influenza, screwworm and other disease threats were mentioned as potential disruptors that could quickly alter supply conditions in both livestock and dairy markets.

Policy and trade uncertainty continues to hover over the sector. Economists pointed to ongoing questions around tariffs, restrictions on live animal trade with Mexico and the next steps under the USMCA as factors that could impact both imports and exports. Political uncertainty more broadly was also cited as a potential source of market volatility.

For dairy, economists noted that beef-on-dairy dynamics are likely to continue weighing on milk prices by increasing beef supplies while complicating dairy herd decisions.

Taken together, economists say livestock and dairy prices over the next six months will be driven by a delicate balance between strong consumer demand, evolving supply conditions and unresolved trade and policy questions, with any shift in one of those areas capable of moving markets quickly.

Acreage Expectations: Stress, Not Shock

Despite margin pressure, economists do not expect dramatic acreage pullbacks in 2026. Most expect:

Corn: 93 to 95 million acres
Soybeans: 84 to 86 million acres
Wheat: 44 to 45 million acres
Cotton: 9 to 10 million acres

Corn acreage expectations have edged lower since November, as economists backed away from another year above 95 million acres. At the same time, soybean acreage expectations have firmed, with 75% now targeting 84 to 86 million acres, suggesting stronger relative economics for beans.

“Export demand has helped keep corn acres supported,” Meyer says. “The question is whether that demand holds and whether policy supports it.”

As for acreage, the major impact on prices would be a large acreage reduction, which is unlikely.

“That’s what it comes down to, too. What I’ve been thinking about is what else can you use land for? And you’ve got the pushback on urban sprawl, you’ve got pushback on other uses for ag land. But right now, the simple fact is we’ve got way too much production. Without that slowing, or a drastic increase in demand, I don’t see prices improving to very lucrative levels,” Gardner says.

Overall, The Ag Economy Is a Grind, Not a Rebound

When you look at all the results from the December Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor, economists paint a picture of an industry that has stopped getting worse, but has not yet found a path to durable profitability.

Crops remain mired in margin compression; livestock continues to outperform but remains sensitive to policy decisions. Government aid is buying time but not addressing structural challenges, but it’s policy outcomes, especially around biofuels, trade and E15, that could be decisive in shaping 2026 outcomes.

For now, the farm economy has found a floor. The tougher question, economists say, is whether policy can help lift it, or if it will continue to grind forward without a genuine rebound.

Related News: As Screwworm Inches Closer, When Could the U.S. Reopen the Southern Border to Cattle Imports?

Christmas Comes Early: Trump Administration Announces $12 Billion in Bridge Payments for Farmers

Tue, 09 Dec 2025 00:35:23 GMT

Help is on the way for farmers impacted by the Trump administration’s trade policies. The White House released some details of its long-anticipated trade aid package, totaling $12 billion .

Up to $11 billion will go toward a newly designed “Farmer Bridge Assistance” program targeted toward row crop farmers hit hardest by trade disruptions. Those payments will be sent by the end of February, according to U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins. The remaining $1 billion will be set aside and is designated for other crops affected by the ongoing disputes.

President Donald Trump announced the package Monday, joined by Rollins, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and several growers. Trump said during the roundtable that tariffs will be used to fund the payments, while a release from USDA says the bulk of the funding will run through a new Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) Program, administered by the Farm Service Agency (FSA) and funded under the Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC).

Rollins framed the package as near-term help while trade and farm-safety-net updates ramp up. She made comments during the roundtable on Monday, surrounded by farmers.

“President Trump will not let our farmers be left behind, so he directed our team to build a bridge program to see quick relief while the president’s dozens of new trade deals and new market access take effect,” Rollins says. “The plan we are announcing today ensures American farmers can continue to plan for the next crop year … it will allow farmers to leverage strengthened price protection risk management tools and the reliability of fair trade deals so they do not have to depend on large ad hoc assistance packages from the government.”

FARMER VERY GRATEFUL TO @POTUS: "YOU BROUGHT CHRISTMAS TO FARMERS"

Cordt Holub, Corn and Soybean Farmer from Iowa: What you're doing here in D.C. is working... I'll be able to potentially pass on a farm to my children because of you. pic.twitter.com/E3vq6jsTMM
— Real America's Voice (RAV) (@RealAmVoice) December 8, 2025

When Are Farmer Assistance Payments Expected?

Based on information released from USDA on Monday, the timing of the payments are as follows:

Dec. 19, 2025 (5 p.m. ET): Deadline for producers to make sure 2025 acreage reporting is accurate.
End of December 2025: USDA expects to release commodity-specific payment rates.
By Feb. 28, 2026: USDA says eligible FBA payments should be released.
Oct. 1, 2026: USDA points to farm bill-related improvements in the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” (OBBBA), including higher statutory reference prices for major commodities, reaching eligible farmers starting on this date.

What Farmers Need to Know

Here’s how the new tariff-funded aid package breaks down and what producers can expect it to mean for their operations.

$12 billion total in one-time assistance tied to 2025 conditions, framed as a short-term bridge while new trade access and longer-term safety net changes take effect.
Up to $11 billion is slated for the FBA Program focused on row crops, using a “simple, proportional” national formula intended to cover a portion of modeled 2025 crop-year losses.
$1 billion is reserved for commodities not covered by FBA, including items such as specialty crops and sugar, but USDA says details and timelines are still being developed.
No crop insurance link required to receive FBA payments, though USDA is urging producers to use OBBBA risk management tools going forward.

Which Crops Are Covered Under the New FBA?

USDA says FBA applies to producers of a broad list of row crops and oilseeds, including:

Barley
Corn
Cotton
Peanuts
Oats
Rice
Sorghum
Soybeans
Wheat
Plus crops such as canola, flax, mustard, rapeseed, safflower, sesame and sunflower, among others.

Is $12 Billion Enough?

The administration had been expected to roll out as much as $15 billion in aid back in October, but Rollins said the 43-day federal government shutdown pushed back the timeline.

During his first term, Trump directed about $23 billion in aid to farmers. Reuters reports producers this year were already on track to receive nearly $40 billion in ad-hoc disaster and economic assistance.

The new trade aid package is widely welcomed, but many U.S. farmers say the damage from the trade war, and China’s boycott of U.S. soybeans through harvest, has already taken its toll. Billions of dollars in lost soybean sales pushed China toward South American suppliers, creating long-term financial and market consequences.

While USDA finally unveiled its long-needed trade aid package, delayed by the 43-day government shutdown, many question whether it’s sufficient. Ed Elfman, senior vice president of agriculture and rural banking policy at the American Bankers Association, says the support will help but won’t fix structural issues.

“Any aid will help,” Elfman says. “It’ll help make cash flow work a little better. It’ll make the margins look a little better. Profitability will go up, but at the end of the day, it’s just a Band-Aid. It’s not a long-term solution.”

For some farmers already in financial distress, the relief comes too late.

“A financial bridge is vital for keeping many of our farmers in business going into 2026,” says Caleb Ragland, president, American Soybean Association. “There are some deep losses that have been incurred, and it’s been piling up over a two- or three-year period.”

Northwest Corn Belt Saw Wide Basis

In the northwest Corn Belt, the trade truce and renewed Chinese soybean purchases were too late to prevent wide basis levels and a storage crunch during harvest.

“A lot of producers were forced to sell that crop early, maybe earlier than what they wanted to,” says Kevin Deinert, president, South Dakota Soybean Association. “Given that we had some very depressed prices at that beginning October time frame before any trade deals were announced, some farmers are still reeling from that.”

Elfman says the financial strain is uneven across the country.

“One thing we’re learning from bankers, it’s creeping into the upper Midwest. The ‘I states’ are starting to feel it more and more, but really the mid-South to the South has been feeling it for three or four years now,” Elfman notes.

And while the aid helps slow the losses, he warns it doesn’t erase them.

“We are seeing with our surveys when we talk to bankers right now that they believe 50% of their producers will not be profitable next year,” Elfman says.

Ragland adds that soybean producers appreciate the lifeline but ultimately want reliable markets.

“We do not want to be dependent on the next aid program or financial bridge to stay in business,” he notes. “We need opportunities within the market.”

Meanwhile, trade negotiations with China continue. China’s Vice Premier held a video call Friday with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer.

Reports say both sides engaged in an in-depth and constructive exchange on implementing the consensus reached in an October meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi.

Under that agreement, the U.S. committed to trimming tariffs on China in exchange for Beijing cracking down on illicit fentanyl trafficking, resuming U.S. soybean purchases and maintaining rare earth exports.

Senators React, Thank Trump For Having Farmers’ Backs

Senate Agriculture Committee Chairman John Boozman, R-Ark., praised the White House’s newly announced farm assistance package, calling it a bridge to help producers until the benefits of recent trade deals and the “One Big Beautiful Bill” show up in farm country.

In a statement, Boozman said farm families share Trump’s goal of expanding market access and that delivering the assistance will bridge the gap until farmers see gains from the new trade agreements and added certainty from the legislation. He added the announcement provides “much needed relief to rural America” and said the Senate Agriculture Committee is prepared to pursue additional steps to support farm families.

Boozman attended the White House roundtable for the announcement alongside Trump, Rollins, Bessent and farmers from across the country.

U.S. Sen. Deb Fischer, R-Neb., a member of the Senate Agriculture Committee, was also in attendance on Monday. She praised the USDA farm assistance package announced by Trump during a White House agriculture roundtable on Monday.

“Today’s farm assistance package is welcome news as we work to get the farm economy back on track,” Fischer said. She credited Trump and Rollins for stepping up to support producers and said she looks forward to working with the administration to expand trade opportunities and strengthen markets for Nebraska agricultural products.

Cutting Through the Confusion: White House Confirms Trade Agreement With China on Soybeans

Mon, 08 Dec 2025 16:28:26 GMT

Late last week, grain markets got a jolt. A claim about China and U.S. soybean purchases spread fast , morphed into “headline certainty” and briefly fueled market chatter that the key buying framework didn’t exist.

A marketing firm reported U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said there’s no deal with China on soybeans. That report was unverified but spread through the markets.

Then, over the weekend, additional comments, reporting and other policy analysts reiterated that China is buying U.S. soybeans because that’s what they agreed to do.

“With China, it’s always: We verify and we monitor and we watch the commitments. The commitments are quite specific,” Greer said Sunday on Fox News. “So all of these things that we’ve agreed to with the Chinese recently are very concrete, we can monitor them with some ease, and so far, we’re seeing that they’re in compliance.”

Greer said China has gotten approximately “a third” of the way through its soybean purchase commitment for this growing season.

Also over the weekend, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated China is making good progress on its commitment to buy U.S. soybeans , reaching the “correct cadence,” with purchases expected to finish by February 2026, highlighting both the ongoing trade commitments and the need for continued support for farmers.

Bessent also said China’s commitment to buying 12 million metric tons (MMT) of soybeans runs through the end of February. That comment, which was seen as Bessent moving the goalpost on when China will complete its purchase commitment, also negatively impacted prices as it fueled more uncertainty.

Private exporters reported sales of 4.85 million bu. or 132,000 metric tons of #soybeans for delivery to #China during the 2025/2026 marketing year. #USDA @AgDayTV @FarmJournal @USFarmReport
— Michelle Rook (@michellerookag) December 8, 2025

Despite the mixed comments, China is still buying U.S. soybeans, a sign there is an agreement with China. USDA confirmed another 4.85 million bushel sale to China, which is 132,000 MT.

Before Monday’s confirmation, as of early December 2025, China has only booked roughly 3 MMT of U.S. soybeans toward its 12 MMT commitment for the final two months of 2025. While Bessent says China is on track to reach that commitment, the total remains far short of the target, and economists are split on whether China will meet the full volume . It’s also key to note China is actually buying, something analysts say wouldn’t happen if there wasn’t an agreement in place.

How the Market Rumor Took Off

According to Washington analyst and regular “AgriTalk” guest Jim Wiesemeyer, on Friday, at least one commodity analyst group circulated a note asserting a Trump administration official, reportedly U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, said there was no U.S.-China agreement in place for Beijing to purchase U.S. soybeans.

The problem: The claim arrived without verification. Wiesemeyer pointed out there was no transcript, no audio and no on-the-record quote. He also said there was no published statement from USTR to support the sweeping interpretation that some policy or purchasing framework had been reversed or didn’t exist.

Still, similar to what happened with a New World screwworm rumor, the rumor ricocheted through portions of ag-market media and social channels, where a single unattributed line quickly hardened into broader conclusions such as there is no agreement, the deal collapsed or China won’t buy, which according to Bessent’s comments over the weekend, isn’t true.

Wiesemeyer says soybean trade headlines are uniquely prone to rumor-driven distortion, and this flare-up checked several familiar boxes:

1) Politics gets oversimplified
Many market analysts are excellent on supply-demand fundamentals but are less reliable interpreters of negotiation tactics, tariff strategy and the way trade messaging gets used as leverage.

2) Position bias creeps in
In fast markets, some commentary “fits” preexisting long or short positions. Information that supports a bias gets amplified, while contradictory context gets ignored.

The Key Point: An “Agreement” Isn’t a Simple Yes or No

China’s soybean buying is never just about one sentence or one headline. It is shaped by a stack of moving parts, including:

tariff structures and exemptions
political leverage inside broader negotiations
Chinese feed demand and crush margins
seasonal price competitiveness (U.S. versus Brazil)

That’s why a claim like “there is no agreement” can be misleading even when it contains a sliver of technical truth. Sometimes “no agreement” means no formal, binding document in the way markets imagine, not that political commitments, buying intentions or commercial flows have stopped.

In other words: A framework can still exist even if it isn’t a tidy, enforceable contract, and purchases can still occur even if every detail hasn’t been restated publicly.

A Weekend Signal Points to a “Deal” with China

Adding context to the late-week confusion: China’s state stockpiler Sinograin plans to auction 512,500 metric tons of imported soybeans on Dec. 11, according to a notice from the National Grain Trade Center. Reuters reported analysts viewed the size of the sale, and the fact it’s the first auction in three months, as a potential signal Beijing is clearing storage space ahead of additional state-directed buying.

That kind of reserve rotation doesn’t align neatly with the idea that China’s commitments have evaporated. If anything, it’s consistent with China positioning itself for additional procurement under ongoing trade expectations.

Where Do We Go From Here?

Market talk isn’t always news. Until an official statement is issued by USTR, USDA or the White House, sweeping claims that the U.S.-China soybean buying framework has “collapsed” should be treated as exactly what they are: market noise.

And producers and traders should remember the lesson from this episode: In grain markets, a rumor can move faster than a confirmation, but it shouldn’t move your decision-making faster than the facts.

Can China Live Up to Its 12 MMT Soybean Promise?

Mon, 01 Dec 2025 21:14:40 GMT

As year-end approaches, soybean markets are entering what is normally a quiet stretch, but this year, the calm might be deceptive. Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist at StoneX, says two uncertainties could spark volatility: the EPA’s final biofuel regulations and China’s ability to follow through on its promise to purchase 12 million metric tons (MMT) of new U.S. soybean sales.

And as USDA weighs market loss payments due to tariffs and trade disruptions, which are reportedly coming this week , ag economists cast doubt on if China will buy 12 MMT yet this year, Suderman says the market might have have already priced in a lower amount.

Markets in a Holding Pattern But Not for Long

Suderman describes the current market tone as typical for late November and December, saying: “We’re in a holding pattern right now, and typically between Thanksgiving and Christmas, you get kind of sluggish markets as we’re waiting for new direction after the first of the year.”

But he immediately adds that this year could carve its own path.

“I think this year we have more potential for volatility, perhaps in both directions, because over the next few weeks, we anticipate getting direction from the EPA on the final regulations for the biofuel program,” he adds. “That could be very bullish, it could be bearish. Our bias is to the positive side, but until we know, that’s an unknown that the market’s really not pricing in yet at this point.”

The Million-Dollar Question: Can China Really Buy 12 MMT?

A major focus remains China’s pledge to buy 12 MMT of soybeans in 2025, but even the timing of those purchases is unclear.

“The White House says it’s new purchases for the calendar ’25. China hasn’t given their side of it. That’s why we need to see the agreement, and we hope to get that this week. That should detail it out in addition to details on the other commodities,” Suderman explains.

Beyond the calendar debate, he says there are real logistical limitations.

“What we hear from our cash sources on the ground in China is they don’t have enough storage space if their state grain buyers are going to buy all these because it’s not economical for the private crushers,” he says. “So the only way they could do it would be to wash out some purchases from Brazil. Now that would be bearish for Brazil, cause their basis to collapse, and then some customers who normally buy from us might go to Brazil instead, kind of rearranging the deck chairs, so to speak.”

Suderman says the core issue is straightforward and there are two looming questions that only China can answer.

“How it all plays out is a big question mark. But I think the big key is: Does China make the full 12 million metric tons of new purchases by the end of the year? And when do they take shipment? They can make the purchases and not take shipment till the next marketing year, or they could take shipment in the next few months. That’ll have a big impact on the dynamics of this market,” says Suderman.

Economists Cast Doubt

U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins and the White House have said China will live up to its promise to buy 12 MMT of soybeans this year, but ag economists aren’t so sure.

Farm Journal’s November Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor , an anonymous survey, found more than three-quarters (76%) of economists surveyed say China won’t purchase that amount of soybeans this year; 24% of economists think China will.

(Farm Journal)

Those same economists are also divided on whether additional trade aid is needed. Exactly half of economists say yes, trade aid is still necessary, while the other half say no.

But economists overwhelmingly agree on two key risks:

U.S. agriculture has become too reliant on ad hoc payments. A striking 94% say the industry has become “too addicted” to emergency programs. And it’s not just farmers, but also industry and input suppliers who have become reliant upon these payments. Many economists say repeated aid packages distort land values, cash rents, equipment purchases and overall decision-making.
One hundred percent of economists argue tariff-aid payments will keep fertilizer prices high. Every economist surveyed says tariff aid would keep input prices elevated, particularly fertilizer.

November Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lori Hayes )

But this also leads to a bigger issue: Is there enough competition in the fertilizer market? Two-thirds (67%) of economists surveyed say there is not enough competition in fertilizer markets.

Fertilizer prices track crop prices, not energy costs — a sign of market power.
The market is concentrated and driven by a handful of global producers.

“The fertilizer market appears to be very concentrated, limiting competition,” said one economist in the anonymous survey. “In a competitive fertilizer market, fertilizer prices should track more closely with energy costs as the primary input cost in fertilizer production (supply) instead of tracking more closely with crop prices as the primary demand for fertilizer. Prices correlating more closely to production costs suggest a competitive supply-driven market. Prices correlating more closely with crop prices suggest a demand-driven market with some market power.”

“More competition is always better, but closing out competition with trade barriers right now is a bad idea,” one economist said.

“While we only have a few suppliers, there is not competition to offer lower prices. Fixing this is a whole other issue,” said another economist in the monthly survey.

“Economies of scale are so large that firms will be few in number. Breaking them up may lead to more competition but also higher prices as economies of scale are lost,” was another comment in the November survey.

What Traders Are Actually Pricing in

Right now, Suderman says the market is assuming something less than the full 12 MMT pledge.

“I think the market has priced in expectations that maybe they’ll take 8 to 10 million metric tons, and they’ll take it during the marketing year between now and the end of August,” he says.

He adds that traders expect the 25 MMT earmarked for 2026 could be purchased sooner but shipped later.

U.S. Soybeans Still Too Expensive for Private Buyers

Even if China lifts its 10% retaliatory tariff, as many expect, it still won’t make U.S. soybeans the cheaper option for commercial crushers.

“For the private crushers, what they would have to pay if there were no additional tariff—and there still is a 10% retaliatory tariff—we expect that to come off soon. But even if it comes off, our U.S. soybeans are priced 70 to 80 cents above Brazilian soybeans landed at the port in China,” he says. “And so we’re still not competitive from that standpoint. And with new crop harvest just weeks away in Brazil now, we’re probably not going to get competitive. So it’s going to have to be state purchases.”

Livestock Margins, Not Disease, Are the Real Drag on Feed Demand

While there are recurring late-year rumors of disease in China’s hog herd, Suderman doesn’t see unusual issues at the moment.

“Every year we hear this time of year about disease in China,” he says. “We don’t see anything at this point that’s out of the ordinary.”

Instead, he points to weak margins across all major protein sectors.

Instead, he says the real challenge is weak livestock economics.

“The bigger problem is the poor returns, the poor margins for livestock feeding—be it pork, be it poultry, be it all forms of protein right now. Demand for protein is simply not there,” Suderman explains. “So they’re shrinking the size of their herds, their flocks, etc. And that’s reducing demand for corn consumption. They actually expect to see corn consumption go down next year versus prior year. That’s a reversal of the normal trend for soymeal demand as well.”

He adds that China is still buying soybeans for a strategic reason and one that agriculture needs to prepare for now.

“Soybean demand is only being held up right now by China building its reserves so that when President Trump’s no longer in office, they can never buy another soybean from us again.”

If the U.S. Must Rely Less on China, What’s the Quickest Way to Do So?

Rollins recently warned that reducing reliance on China will be difficult. Suderman agrees but insists it’s necessary and will take not only striking new trade deals and finding new markets, but building domestic demand.
That includes:

A strong biofuel program
New trade agreements
Expanded global access
Domestic demand growth

“I’ve been saying that for four or five years, that we were going to lose China. Let’s go to all of the above,” he says.

He believes some recent trade pacts signed by Trump are “very good for demand,” though he cautions nothing can fully replace China’s market size.

Still, Suderman says there is reason for optimism as biofuel infrastructure.

“With the all-of-the-above approach, we do have a bright picture down the road,” he says.

What to Watch Through the End of the Year

China’s ability to follow through on its 12 MMT soybean promise remains highly uncertain. Storage constraints, price disadvantages, and weak domestic protein margins are all complicating factors.

Suderman says the market is prepared for 8 MMT to 10 MMT but not the full pledge.

What China does, or doesn’t do, over the next few weeks could shape the soybean market well into 2026.

“Some of these trade packs that President Trump has signed are very good for demand. It’s not going to replace China by any means. You can’t do that, it’s not the same size market. But I think with the all-of-the-above approach, we do have a bright picture down the road as we get the biofuel infrastructure built up,” says Suderman.

Is China a National Security Threat to U.S. Agriculture?

Thu, 06 Nov 2025 22:13:00 GMT

It’s been more than a decade since China made very public, very large investments in its future to feed its own people and gain greater control over international agribusiness.

In 2013, WH Group (then known as Shuanghui International) purchased Smithfield Foods for $4.7 billion, which was a U.S. company with 25 U.S. plants, 460 farms, and contracts with 2,100 producers in 12 states. A year later in back-to-back months, COFCO (China National Cereals, Oils and Foodstuffs Corporation) bought two major agricultural trading companies: Noble Agri and Nidera. Then in 2017, ChemChina acquired Swiss-based Syngenta for $46 billion.

These acquisitions highlight the production and power China has amassed, and it’s being called into question by policy thinktank America First Policy Institute (AFPI).

“We know that many of these state-owned enterprises have an obligation to the CCP, and that is to report in and turn in all of the intellectual property they collect around the world or trade secrets and turn it in the Chinese Communist Party, giving them an edge and their ability to offshore a lot of our production from the United States,” says Ambassador Kip Tom, Indiana farmer and AFPI expert.

In a recent report, AFPI spotlighted the following vulnerabilities for U.S. farmers and consumers:

Smithfield controls 23% of U.S. pork processing
The U.S. market accounts for 23% of The Syngenta Group’s revenues
DJI drones are used by U.S. farmers to collect field data

One policy recommendation from AFPI is for Syngenta and Smithfield Foods to “divest to a domestic company or, at a minimum, a company not principally managed by an adversary of the United States.”

“Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party pose a threat to American farmers and U.S. food security,” says Congressman John Moolenaar (R-Mich.), Chairman of the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party. “They’re engaged in economic aggression against the United States. We must protect our farms, feed mills, processing plants, and slaughterhouses. The CCP strategy is two-fold, undermine U.S. food security while siege-proofing their own.”

The full report is available here.

Ambassador Tom says in addition to direct or majority ownership by the CCP, global supply chains have evolved over recent decades resulting in U.S. farmers being more susceptible to negative impacts.

“We’re going to need to do everything we can do in our regulatory regime to make sure we can bring back these supply chains,” Tom says. “With the amount of sourcing that we’ve done in chemistries around the world, our fertilizer production, computer chips that run our tractors, everything, we are very vulnerable.”

Another aspect of Chinese ownership that has come into focus is foreign owned land in the U.S. The most recent reports peg a minimum of 35 million acres of farmland (3.4% of all U.S. ag land) is foreign owned, with Chinese companies owning around 350,000 acres. Of that, Brazos Highland owns 102,345 acres, and Smithfield owns 97,975 acres. The topic garnered attention at the state level with more than a handful of states passing legislation limiting foreign farmland ownership.

“Farmland is critical in the United States,” Tom says. “We know that the Fufang Group tried to place a [corn milling] plant up near Grand Forks, North Dakota, near an Air Force base, that was a strategic problem. That same group came to Indiana, and we stood up and said the same thing, ‘no, this shouldn’t be allowed.’ So it comes back to the states to get involved and make sure we put the measures in place to not allow this to happen.”

AFPI applies a skeptical eye on DJI drones, a Chinese company currently the largest manufacturer of drones worldwide.

“I would be very supportive, and I hope many of us farmers would be, to see the DJI drones go away. We should never underestimate the Chinese ability to use any information that they gather from the United States,” Tom says. “But we need to make sure that we shore up the production of drones here in the United States with American parts and information that’s processed here in the United States.”

In addition to their agribusiness investments, China has ramped up its public-funded research . Since 2008, China has outspent the U.S. in comparable public sector spending for agricultural research, and furthermore, since 2019, China has spent twice as much, or double, as the U.S.

“This is all part of the BRICS initiative, Brazil, Russia, India, and China. And we know that actually the Brazil has fast forward their agriculture development in their nation,” Tom says. “We know that now they are leading suppliers and a lot of the commodities that are produced in the world today, whether it’s corn, soybeans, wheat, beef, hogs, and they’re getting into the biofuels. Because of the theft of some of these intellectual property products that we had here in the United States, namely genetics, corn genetics, we know that China in a few years here will probably be self -sufficient on corn.”

Setting the Record Straight: What China Actually Agreed to Buy—And When Those Ag Purchases Will Happen

Mon, 03 Nov 2025 23:05:30 GMT

The White House announced a sweeping new U.S.–China trade agreement late last week that includes substantial commitments from Beijing to purchase U.S. agricultural products — marking what officials call a “breakthrough” in restoring and expanding trade flows between the two countries.

According to the White House fact sheet , China will buy 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans by the end of 2025 and 25 million metric tons annually through 2028. The deal also restores trade in sorghum, hardwood logs, and a range of other commodities while lifting retaliatory tariffs on U.S. beef, pork, dairy, wheat, corn, cotton, and other farm products.

Yet, with mixed messages from the White House and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, there was some confusion on whether China would purchase an additional 12 million metric tons of soybeans, of if it was 12 million total.

As AgMarket.Net’s Jim McCormick pointed out, the U.S. already sold China 5.9 million metric tons earlier this year, before the trade war broke out. Comments from Bessent made it sound like China would be 12 million metric ton total, which would have equated to only buy an additional 6.1 million metric tons yet this year.

However, the White House Fact Sheet released over the weekend cleared the air, saying, “China will purchase at least 12 million metric tons (MMT) of U.S. soybeans during the last two months of 2025 and also purchase at least 25 MMT of U.S. soybeans in each of 2026, 2027, and 2028. Additionally, China will resume purchases of U.S. sorghum and hardwood logs.”

What This Means for U.S. Farmers

For U.S. row-crop producers and livestock farmers alike, the agreement could spell renewed demand from one of the world’s largest agricultural importers. The 25 MMT annual soybean commitment alone represents a major market opportunity for U.S. producers, especially in key states such as Iowa, Illinois and Minnesota — and for U.S. sorghum growers in the High Plains. The lifting of tariffs on beef, pork and dairy also opens additional channels for livestock- and dairy-product exporters.

At Kansas State University, Dr. Allen Featherstone, head of the Department of Agricultural Economics, calls the deal an encouraging sign for U.S. farmers — especially after years of market turbulence.

“It certainly is a bright spot and big news,” Featherstone says. “Traditionally, China has been buying between 25 and 34 million metric tons. So certainly, the 25 million for the next three years will put that in the range of what historically has been done. The 12 million between now and January certainly is a heavy lift but also a big buy.”

Timing And The Broader Picture

According to the White House, the buys start immediately: 12 MMT in the last two months of 2025 and then on into each of the next three years. The scope of the deal also signals more than agriculture: China has agreed to suspend retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods announced since March 4, 2025 and to remove its “unreliable entity” and end-user listing measures.

Featherstone says that timing matters, since late fall and early winter are when China typically turns to U.S. soybeans before switching to Brazil in February and March.

“Based on current prices, it’s about a $4.5 billion deal between now and January,” he explains. “If you look at where we are the next three years, it’s about a $10 billion deal — and that’s good news.”

He points out that soybeans remain the No. 1 U.S. export to China, making the commodity a central part of trade negotiations.

“For the last three years, soybeans are the number one import in China from the U.S.,” Featherstone says. “As they’re trying to get leverage over the U.S., the soybean market is one of the places where they can have leverage.”

The Next Hurdle? Tracking the Purchases Amid a Government Shutdown

While the commitments are substantial, Featherstone cautions that verifying China’s purchases will be more difficult due to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which has delayed USDA export reporting.

“Tracking will be important,” he says. “Last week they purchased three vessels — about 180,000 metric tons. There are sources besides the government, but certainly not having the government data is a problem.”

Without weekly USDA export reports, private-sector analysts are relying on commercial shipping data and trade wire confirmations to track shipments. Economists warn that these unofficial estimates often vary widely, adding uncertainty to market reactions.

Opportunities and Caveats

Agribusiness groups, U.S. exporters and farm economists will be tracking how the commitments translate into actual purchases and shipping logistics. The upside is clear: large volume commitments from China boost U.S. export potential, may help stabilize or raise soybean, sorghum and other commodity prices, and can provide relief to ag sectors hard-hit by prior trade disruptions.

But there are caution flags too. Commitments do not always guarantee immediate shipments. Market conditions, logistics, currency movements, and China’s domestic production may influence actual demand and timing.

Exporters will want to monitor how quickly China follows through, whether the buys are genuinely incremental (vs. simply re-directing existing purchases) and how U.S. logistics chain handles increased volumes.

How This Will Impact Farmers and Ranchers in the Months Ahead

According to the White House fact sheet, here’s how the trade and economic deal, reached between President Donald J. Trump and President Xi Jinping of China, China committed to buying large amounts of soybeans, but China also said it would start purchasing sorghum again. On the livestock front, tariffs were suspended on beef, pork, dairy and more.

So, what should farmers and ranchers watch in the months ahead?

Soybeans: Given the huge volume — 12 MMT in 2025, then 25 MMT annually — soybean exporters will want to watch new crop availability, global competition (e.g., Brazil, Argentina) and U.S. export origination points.
Sorghum & hardwood logs: These categories were specifically called out for resumption of trade, suggesting new or renewed market access in China.
Livestock, dairy & other ag products: With tariffs suspended on beef, pork, dairy, and aquatic products, U.S. meat and dairy exporters may gain longer-term access to Chinese markets.
Tariff & non-tariff measures: The removal of retaliatory tariffs and other counters means fewer barriers for U.S. ag exports, but exporters should still watch for regulatory or sanitary measures that often influence trade.
Supply chain & logistics readiness: Meeting large volume commitments will test U.S. export capacity, shipping, port access and coordination between exporters and farmers.

Looking Ahead

The China-U.S. deal marks a potentially significant turning point for U.S. agricultural exports in 2025: large-scale Chinese commitments, tariff relief, and expanded access could open new markets and relieve pressure in certain ag sectors.

But the real story will be how fast, how reliably, and how fully China follows through with purchases — and how U.S. producers, exporters, and logistics systems respond.

As Markets Search for Clarity, USDA Says NASS Will Issue Key Reports in November Despite Government Shutdown

Fri, 31 Oct 2025 17:37:32 GMT

The federal government’s continued shutdown is no longer just a Washington standoff — it’s becoming a real-world problem for farmers and ranchers. As the days drag on without resolution, three Kansas State University economists warn that even with FSA offices back open, the absence of key USDA reports is rippling through every corner of the ag economy, from commodity markets to cattle prices and farm-level business planning.

But on Friday, USDA-NASS issued a bit of surprise. The agency says NASS will release key data in November for the following reports , some with a delay:

Milk Production – Nov. 10 (previously scheduled for Oct. 22)
Crop Production – Nov. 14 (previously scheduled for Nov. 10)
Cattle on Feed – Nov. 21 (as previously scheduled)
Milk Production – Nov. 21 (as previously scheduled)
The World Agricultural Outlook Board will release the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) in conjunction with the Crop Production report on Nov. 14.

With much of the agency still furloughed, there are questions regarding how NASS will have enough staff to provide those key reports. The release didn’t offer any additional details, only saying those key reports will be released in November.

However, there are a few key reports still missing, which includes daily flash sales reports and weekly export sales information.

A Data Blackout Hits the Heart of Agriculture

Until now, the shutdown has silenced the regular flow of government data that producers, analysts and traders depend on — reports like the weekly export sales, crop progress and Cattle on Feed updates, as well as the highly anticipated World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE).

“The fact that the government is still shut down means we aren’t getting those weekly export sales reports,” says Allen Featherstone, head of the department of agricultural economics at Kansas State University. “That’s a real problem because we rely on that information to confirm what’s actually happening in the market.”

Is China Actually Buying? The Absence of Flash Sales Reports Creates Confusion

With the U.S. and China negotiating renewed agricultural trade commitments , there are fresh promises of more purchases in the weeks and months ahead. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Thursday that China has agreed to buy 12 million metric tons of American soybeans during the current season through January and has committed to buying 25 million tons annually for the next three years as part of a larger trade agreement with Beijing.

Featherstone notes that while China claims it is buying U.S. soybeans, the lack of USDA verification makes it difficult to gauge the truth and confirm those buys are happening. And in USDA’s announcement Friday, there was no indication the flash sales and weekly export sales will resume.

“Earlier this week, China reportedly purchased three vessels, about 180,000 metric tons, but not having official data from USDA is a major issue,” he says. “Tracking purchases becomes challenging when the normal reporting mechanisms are down.”

Despite some optimism around U.S.-China trade progress, Featherstone says markets are hesitant to believe much until concrete export numbers appear.

“If China doesn’t come through, that will lead to more negativity in prices given the size of this year’s crop,” he says. “China imports roughly 60% of the world’s soybeans, and if they don’t buy from us, that’s a big problem.”

Featherstone emphasizes the importance of diversifying U.S. export markets.

“We need to broaden who’s buying our products,” he says. “Relying too heavily on one trade partner makes us vulnerable, and this shutdown is a reminder of just how fragile that system can be when government data and diplomacy both stall.”

No November WASDE?

While some private companies attempt to replicate USDA’s data models, those efforts often fall short, according to Terry Griffin, K-State’s precision agriculture economist.

“We’re not likely to have a November WASDE because all the footwork that leads up to it hasn’t happened,” Griffin explains. “Even if the shutdown ends this weekend, that report won’t be ready. There’s just too much groundwork that hasn’t been done.”

He says the lack of USDA reports has forced brokers, trading firms and agribusinesses to depend on private estimates that vary widely.

“They’ve become so reliant on USDA’s National Ag Statistics Service that they’re struggling right now to do their business,” Griffin says. “It’s throwing off everything from national models to local crop forecasts.”

Griffin also points out the shutdown’s impact reaches beyond the boardroom and into academia.

“We have a graduate student working on a peanut production forecasting model, and she’s using crop progress data that come out every week,” he explains. “Without those reports, she can’t validate her model. The data blackout affects research, innovation and business planning all at once.”

Cattle Producers Face Growing Uncertainty

The shutdown’s effects extend deeply into the livestock sector, where missing data is already creating confusion and volatility. Glynn Tonsor, K-State livestock economist, says the absence of reports like Cattle on Feed and slaughter estimates makes it difficult to assess market fundamentals.

“The Cattle on Feed Report is something we normally get monthly. Historically, it has a steer and heifer breakdown, which would be quite useful at the moment as the most recent insight about whether we’re expanding the herd or not, and we’re not going to have that detail,” says Tonsor. “There’s also been a lot of discussion about beef prices and some accusations or desires to make those lower, and we’re actually already behind on what the beef price is in this country. So there’s lots of examples that we could give you that are not just livestock and not just crops. And the longer the shutdown goes, the longer those data gaps exist and build, the harder it is for anybody, whether it’s an academic like us up here or private sector or individual producers, to adjust.”

He notes while we did see life in the cattle market this week, if you look at what happened since President Trump made comments about cattle prices being too high , the cattle market has pulled back significantly in recent weeks.

“Roughly $200 per head has come off the value of cattle in just 10 days,” Tonsor says. “If you’re a cow-calf producer, you’re still positioned for 2025 to be a good year, but uncertainty is the biggest risk right now. Anything that elevates uncertainty delays long-term investments, whether that’s expanding the herd or making capital improvements.”

That uncertainty isn’t only about market data. Tonsor says the political noise out of Washington, including renewed calls for mandatory Country of Origin Labeling (MCOOL), adds to the confusion.

“Taste remains the main driver of beef demand,” he says. “Origin and traceability rank much lower for the average consumer. There are niche opportunities, but for most people, it’s not what decides their protein purchases.”

A Cloud of Uncertainty Over Rural America

For now, K-State’s economists agree on one thing: The shutdown’s ripple effects are growing with every passing day. From grain markets to livestock pricing, from academic research to on-farm decision-making, the absence of reliable government data leaves agriculture flying blind.

“The longer the shutdown goes, the more those data gaps build,” Tonsor says. “And the harder it becomes for anyone, whether you’re an academic, a trader or a producer, to adjust.”

Political Blame Game in Washington

The political blame game continues in Washington, and it’s creating a stalemate. The Democrats are blaming the GOP, and the GOP is blaming the Democrats, both claiming the other party doesn’t care about every day Americans, otherwise the other side would make concessions to reopen the government.

House Committee on Agriculture Chairman Glenn “GT” Thompson, R-Pa., released a statement on Friday, the day before SNAP benefits are set to expire, saying the prolonged government shutdown is caused by Democrats in the U.S. Senate.

“Because Senate Democrats insist on keeping the federal government shut down, more than 40 million Americans — including children, seniors, veterans and military families — will not receive their November SNAP benefits beginning this weekend. The No. 2 House Democrat acknowledged that suffering families are their ‘leverage’, confirming that this is a political choice.”

U.S. Representative Angie Craig, D-Minn., and Ranking Member of the House Ag Committee, says the onus falls on President Donald Trump and Congressional Republicans.

“Secretary Rollins said one honest thing today: The government is failing the American people. Republicans control the House, Senate and White House. The Trump administration has the legal authority and funds necessary to get November SNAP benefits out the door. They are illegally withholding food from 42 million Americans, and it is shameful,” said Craig in a statement on Friday.

USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden says the fallout extends well beyond the Capitol. From families losing access to food assistance to disruptions in beef and soybean markets, Vaden warns that the consequences are real and immediate.

In an interview on “AgriTalk,” Vaden accuses congressional Democrats of blocking a “clean continuing resolution” and says the resulting gridlock could harm both consumers and producers.

“If they don’t vote to reopen the government, then 40-plus million SNAP recipients see no extra money added to their benefit cards this weekend,” Vaden says. “We shouldn’t be playing politics with people’s lives and people’s dinner tables.”

SNAP and WIC Funding Hang in the Balance

Vaden says USDA manages to keep the Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) program funded for now by reallocating money from other programs. But the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), which costs about $9 billion each month, has no such cushion.

“When it comes to SNAP, we’re talking about more than 9 billion — with a B — dollars,” he explains. “We don’t have that kind of money lying around here at USDA. The contingency fund people talk about is nowhere close to that amount, and it’s meant for natural disasters. We surely don’t want to be spending that and then hoping there’s no hurricane while Congress continues this shutdown.”

Without congressional action, Vaden says 40 million Americans might not receive their grocery benefits at the start of November — a moment when both food demand and household strain typically rise ahead of the holidays.

“That’s 9 billion dollars of groceries,” Vaden emphasizes. “And those groceries include beef, pork and poultry. These are markets that are sensitive to even a 1% shift in demand.”

“A Lump of Coal” for the Holidays

As the shutdown looms, Vaden says the timing is especially painful.

“We’re heading into the holiday season; it’s supposed to be a time of good cheer,” he says. “Unfortunately, Senator Schumer and Representative Jeffries are giving everybody a lump of coal. This needs to stop. We shouldn’t be playing games with people’s lives.”

He adds that USDA can move quickly once Congress passes appropriations.

“You want people to receive their SNAP benefits? It’s real simple,” Vaden says. “Give us our normal appropriations, and USDA will do what it does so well: get those benefits onto people’s cards quickly and efficiently.”

China to Buy 12 Million Metric Tons of Soybeans This Season, Bessent Says

Thu, 30 Oct 2025 12:38:21 GMT

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Thursday that China has agreed to buy 12 million metric tons of American soybeans during the current season through January and has committed to buying 25 million tons annually for the next three years as part of a larger trade agreement with Beijing.

Bessent said other countries in Southeast Asia have agreed to buy another 19 million tons of U.S. soybeans, but did not specify a timeframe for those purchases.

“So our great soybean farmers, who the Chinese used as political pawns - that’s off the table, and they should prosper in the years to come,” Bessent told Fox Business Network.

LETS GOOO!!! Soybeans! Sorghum! 🇺🇸🚜 BIG news out of President Trump’s historic meeting with President Xi!

More details coming soon. THANK YOU, MR. PRESIDENT!!! pic.twitter.com/5hHpKbX70F
— Secretary Brooke Rollins (@SecRollins) October 30, 2025

Soy bean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade were about 1% higher in early U.S. trading on Thursday after Bessent’s interview with “Mornings with Maria.”

In 2024, the U.S. exported nearly 27 million metric tons of soybeans to China.

Trump wrote in a social media post overnight following his meeting with Xi in South Korea that the Chinese leader had authorized China to begin the purchase of massive amounts of soybeans, sorghum and other farm products.

U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins applauded Trump’s comments on soybeans and sorghum in a post on X.

(Reporting by David Lawder, Andrea Shalal, Daniel Burns, Leah Douglas and Maiya KeidanEditing by Tomasz Janowski and Doina Chiacu)

China Buys US Soybean Cargoes Ahead of Trump-Xi Meet, Sources Say

Wed, 29 Oct 2025 17:05:25 GMT

China’s state-owned COFCO bought three U.S. soybean cargoes, two trade sources said, the country’s first purchases from this year’s U.S. harvest, shortly before a summit of leaders Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.

As the two nations battle over trade tariffs, the lack of Chinese buying has cost U.S. farmers billions of dollars in lost sales, after they largely supported Trump in his campaigns for president.

Today’s purchase by China of multiple ships of American soybeans signals @POTUS’ strong dealmaking and a positive step forward for our farmers.

This purchase, coming directly ahead of the Trump-Xi talks, shows that America means business and that we will restore balance, give…
— Secretary Brooke Rollins (@SecRollins) October 29, 2025

Although COFCO’s deal for December-January shipment of about 180,000 metric tons of soybeans was China’s first such buy in months, traders do not expect a significant resumption in demand for U.S. cargoes after recent large South American purchases.

COFCO did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.

“COFCO has proceeded to purchase U.S. beans even before the two leaders have reached a trade agreement,” said a trader at an international trading company that supplies Chinese crushers.

“The volumes booked by COFCO are not that large, three cargoes for now.”

Benchmark Chicago soybean futures prices Sv1 jumped this week to their highest in 15 months, rebounding from recent five-year lows on hopes for a U.S.-China trade deal.

The prime U.S. soybean export season normally runs from October through January, but China has shunned soybeans from the autumn U.S. harvest this year, amid protracted trade friction with Washington, turning instead to South American suppliers.

Reuters was the first to report China’s purchase of three cargoes.

Lackluster Demand

China, which takes more than 60% of world soybean imports, has nearly completed booking cargoes from Brazil and Argentina through November, with limited purchases expected for December and January ahead of the Brazilian harvest.

“U.S. suppliers have missed out on most of oilseed crushing business,” said a second oilseed trader, who expected China to need about 5 million tons of shipments in December and January, for which market conditions favour Brazil.

U.S. soybeans, which traded at a steep discount to Brazilian cargoes in recent weeks due to subdued Chinese demand, have strengthened this week and are now priced at parity at about $2.45 per bushel above Chicago futures, traders said.

Private Chinese buyers tend to prefer Brazilian soybeans for their higher protein content, which typically brings a premium over U.S. soybeans, said Jeffrey Xu, general manager of Shanghai-based OCI, a soybean consultant and two other traders.

Still, China could take about 8 million tons of U.S. soybeans for its strategic reserves in the period from December to May, traders said, buying through state-owned enterprises such as Sinograin, which would be worth roughly $4 billion.

(Reporting by Ella Cao and Naveen Thukral; Additional reporting by Karl Plume in Chicago; Editing by Tony Munroe and Clarence Fernandez)

'Everything’s a Game of 3D Chess': The Real Reason Behind U.S. Ties to Argentina

Fri, 24 Oct 2025 19:32:25 GMT

The U.S. is tightening ties with Argentina, and that’s raising eyebrows across farm country.

From a $20 billion bailout to plans to import Argentine beef, farmers and ranchers say the growing alliance feels like it’s coming at the expense of U.S. agriculture.

But according to Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist with StoneX, there’s more to this story, and it has everything to do with China .

A Geopolitical Chess Match

“Everything’s a game of 3D chess,” Suderman explains. “At the center of it is China.”

For years, China has been strengthening ties with Argentina, investing heavily in infrastructure and agriculture to secure long-term supply lines and influence. Suderman says the U.S. sees an opportunity to pull Argentina away from Beijing’s orbit, using economic incentives to win its allegiance.

“The White House sees this as a way to create a split between Argentina and China,” Suderman says. “It’s not just about soybeans or beef. It’s about global positioning.”

The Beef Backlash

But for cattle producers, that strategy feels like betrayal. President Donald Trump’s recent talk of importing Argentine beef sparked anger across rural America. Many worry increasing imports will undercut domestic markets.

Suderman urges producers to stay calm. He points out the announced beef imports, around 80,000 metric tons, are only equal to about two day’s worth of U.S. beef production.

“It’s not enough to impact prices,” he says, “but it does show a disconnect between Washington and agriculture.”

He adds that advisers to the president might have misunderstood how ag markets work.

“These aren’t controlled industries like pharmaceuticals,” Suderman notes. “Ag markets are driven by supply and demand, and right now, we have record demand with tight supply.”

Soybean Farmers Feel Left Behind

While beef producers protest, soybean farmers are already bruised. Argentina’s temporary suspension of export taxes earlier in the year allowed them to undercut U.S. prices and quickly sell beans to China — a major blow to American growers. Suderman says it’s a reminder that the U.S. is no longer the world’s low-cost soybean producer.

“Argentina and Brazil have a cheaper currency and lower costs,” he explains. “And China has been investing there for decades.”

Suderman says he’s been warning the industry for years that the U.S. would eventually lose China as its top soybean buyer.

“This didn’t happen overnight,” Suderman says. “China has been building toward this for 20 years. The current administration may have sped it up, but it was coming.”

Beijing’s refusal to buy American and its pivot to Brazil could be less about economics and more to do with politics. “It’s a calculated decision about control and national leverage, not about getting the cheapest beans,” says one ag economist. Read more here.

Caught in a Bigger Battle

Beyond agriculture, Suderman says the real fight isn’t over soybeans — it’s over rare earth minerals. China currently controls about 90% of the world’s processed rare earths, which are essential to making electronics and advanced defense systems.

“That’s the real leverage,” he says. “Soybeans are small compared to the rare earth battle.”

The Trump administration is now trying to expand domestic rare earth supply chains, sourcing from Australia, Greenland and even within the U.S. But Suderman says it could take two to three years before those efforts meet national defense and economic needs.

What Farmers Need to Know

To many farmers, Washington’s global strategy feels like it’s coming at their expense. While the administration is playing the long game with China, rural America is paying the short-term price. Still, Suderman sees opportunity ahead if the U.S. can continue developing new markets, strengthen biofuel demand and tap into growing trade opportunities in Africa and beyond.

“We weren’t ready to give up China,” he admits, “but we need to look forward not backward.”

Ag Economists Warn of Lingering Farm Economic Strain: ’Not the 1980s, But Close’

Thu, 23 Oct 2025 22:35:02 GMT

The October Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor paints a tough picture for U.S. farmers heading into 2026: weak trade demand, stubbornly high input costs and continued consolidation across agriculture. While experts say today’s challenges don’t match the full-blown crisis of the 1980s, most agree the current downturn is dragging on with few signs of a quick turnaround.

“High input costs and the inability of domestic soybean crush growth to offset lost Chinese demand” continue to weigh heavily on profitability, one economist explains.

Another adds: “The lack of trade opportunities, and high input costs, are doing the most damage right now.”

A third economist sums it up more bluntly: “Margins are collapsing, and optimism is evaporating fast.”

By the numbers, here are highlights from the latest Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor.

(Lori Hayes )

Conditions Expected to Continue or Worsen Into 2026

One of the major themes in the latest survey is the fact negative margins could be a theme for row crop agriculture for the foreseeable future.

Nearly 60% (59%) of economists say the farm economy is worse off than a month ago, and almost 90% believe it’s weaker than last year. 76% expect the situation to persist or even worsen through 2026, while only a quarter expect any improvement in the next 12 months. As one economist puts it: “It’s not a collapse, but it’s a grind.”