Cheese

Food Inflation, Threatened Tariffs: What Is The Effect On Super Bowl Snack Tables?

Mon, 03 Feb 2025 20:14:53 GMT

Whether it’s chicken wings (up 7%) or vegetables for the snack tray (broccoli is down 7%), Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute Economist Dr. Michael Swanson says consumers shouldn’t expect every snack food category to increase their budget for a traditional Super Bowl party. And he doesn’t think President Trump’s latest trade talks with Mexico, Canada and China will have a direct, immediate effect at the grocery store by Sunday’s big game.

“It’s unlikely that changes in tariffs will impact prices headed into the Super Bowl, however, we’ll see how it plays out in the coming weeks. This is certainly the year for consumers to stay food fluent,” Swanson says.

For the past four years, he’s led the team at Wells Fargo to look at popular categories for game day watch parties and analyze the pricing trends. His research aims to help consumers stay “food fluent” to find alternatives, substitutions and bargains when they can.

“We started in 2021 when we saw the first spike in food inflation. And the past three years, everything has been up—it was a question of how much a category was up that year,” Swanson says. “But for 2025, some categories are up, and some are not. Some are way up; and some are way down.”

Swanson says it’s demand keeping prices elevated—not supply.

“Take chicken wings. Did the avian influenza knock out the chicken wings? The answer is, no, it didn’t–it was mainly the egg laying flocks. We have almost more chicken wings than we did last year, but prices are up 7%. Why? It’s consumer demand,” he says.

For dairy products, the Super Bowl is one of the top three demand events.

“Between the nachos, pizzas and sundry cheese-based snacks, the industry knows that and prepares well in advance making sure all the fans have what they need,” he says. “Dairy as a category was up 1.3% from a year ago, but it has been a relatively flat pricing environment for the last 18 months. Consumers and producers have found a good balance overall.

Specific to ongoing trade developments and tariffs discussions, Swanson says the dairy industry is staying keenly aware.

“Exports are a key element for balancing U.S. dairy production and demand. The industry is preparing to see what happens with key markets like Mexico and Canada in the near term,” he says.

He says the same could play out for avocados, which is notable given the tariff discussions on Mexico—our No. 1 source country for avocados.

“The question is, is the supply substitutable. With avocados, we’re seeing a push to grow more in Ecuador, Peru, and Colombia,” he says.

While longer-term supplies may be diversified, it takes years for trees to bear fruit. And for now, per the Wells Fargo Super Bowl Report, avocado prices are up over 11%.
Two other vegetables up year-over-year are red bell peppers (up 7.4%) and prepared carrots (up 3.4%)

So what categories went down in year-to-year pricing?

Notably, some vegetables are down including celery (down 8.4), broccoli (down 7.2%) and cauliflower (down 3.8%).

A more robust supply of potatoes has yielded a decline in potato chips prices, which are 5.1% lower. Also when it comes to overall pre-packaged foods, the container prices have come down, so increases in transport costs aren’t being passed along to the consumer as they have been in the past.

If you’re looking for a “bargain” Swanson points to store brand frozen pizzas.

“Some of those carbohydrate-based components are down through competition. Something like frozen pizzas, for example are down from a year ago. And especially you look at those store Brand pizzas are way down. They’re down about 8% versus just 2% for the national brand. So if you really want to save money, competition is your friend.”
As for protein, the biggest price decline has been in shrimp with a 4% lower price this year than last.

Retail beef prices remain elevated.

“It’s not that we have poor supply of beef. We’re doing some interesting dynamics right now, exporting a little bit less, importing, a little bit more, putting more pounds on those cows,” Swanson says. “We have a decent supply of beef, but the price is still up 3.5% to 4% as a category from a year ago. The consumers love it, and they’re going to pay for it.”

His advice overall in this food economic environment is to stay a smart shopper.

“We’re entering a competitive situation right now–we’re seeing things go up and things go down. If a product matters to you, get out the on the web, shop a couple of stores, because one of the things we do find is promotions are back in the game.”

Midwest Dairy Producers Forced to Dump Milk

Fri, 04 Oct 2024 20:19:15 GMT

With much of the Upper Midwest processing capacity maxed out in terms of milk production, finding a new home for milk is not an easy task. Lucas Sjostrom, the executive director of Minnesota Milk shared that Hastings Creamery ability to discharge is shut down for 30 days, as they need to take their waste elsewhere. Sjostrom shares they are continuing operations and are accepting and diverting milk from the same farmers as needed.

“We’ve been working over the past few weeks with the farmers to find alternative markets while government officials have been looking to find a solution to keep the plant open,” he says. “We believe every milk buyer across the Upper Midwest is aware of the situation. Plants are already voluntarily dumping milk on-farm on certain days and even though we have transportation available, most plants cannot currently take the milk even for free.”

Hastings Creamery processes 150,000 lbs. of raw milk each day and purchases it from dairy farmers located in both Minnesota and Wisconsin. A variety of dairy products are under Hastings Creamery label, as well as some private labels for other companies and grocery store chains.

Justin Malone, one of the creamery’s owners, shared that it is a tough time in the dairy industry and some farmers are forced to dump milk because they can’t find any processing plants with the capacity to accept additional milk.

Other Farms Forced to Dump Milk, Too

The reality is that not only Hastings Creamery is impacted by an oversupply of milk on the market. Mitch Thompson owns and operates Thompson Family Dairy in Lewiston, Minn., and is a member-owner of Associated Milk Producers Inc. (AMPI). He shared that he had to dump milk from his herd on June 2.

“The milk hauler picked our milk up and said, ‘Well, I’m taking it to another farm’s field that just chopped rye to dump the milk in the field,’” he says, noting that he still will get paid for that dump milk, but shares the whole cooperative suffers when milk isn’t sold.

Thompson is uncertain on how long dumping milk will continue but shares that he is concerned about the current state of the dairy industry.

“We’re shipping around 70,000 lbs. of milk a day, so I worry where’s all that milk going to go,” he questions. “If they keep dumping the milk, how bad is our [milk] price going to get?”

At the time of the interview, Thompson shared that his farm’s milk was picked up and taken to the plant on June 5.

“It sounded like they were going to get a couple of other different farms and dump their milk like everybody’s taking their turn,” he shared.

Meanwhile, it’s normal business at Thompson Dairy, as cows must be milked every day. Even when the milk is then dumped into a nearby field.

“This is a real kick in the shorts. How long can you keep doing this when the milk price is so low already,” Thompson notes, sharing that he is concerned about the current situation of milk being dumped, as well as low milk prices.

“I just wonder when will things turn around,” he asks.

Flooded Milk Market

Sarah Schmidt, vice president of marketing with AMPI, says the reason producers are having to dump milk is simply because there is currently a flooded milk market.

“There is more milk on the market and fluid milk sales have declined dramatically, especially with schools closing for the summer,” she says. “Those fluid milk sales were there for the past several months and simply are not there now.”

Schmidt comments that milk from outside the Upper Midwest is pushing into the region and displacing typical, seasonal sales. She also notes all AMPI milk receiving plants are running at full capacity.

“The milk produced on member farms is exceeding our processing and marketing capacity,” she says. “The team is working hard to keep milk moving into processing facilities.”

Schmidt says unfortunately they do not see any specific signs as to when the tides are going to turn.

“What we do know is that dairy farmers produce a fantastic product and there is good demand for cheese and butter. I’m hopeful low cheese market prices make their way into the grocery stores, spurring increased sales,” she says.

Young Wisconsin Brothers Break Record for World’s Largest Grilled Cheese

Tue, 24 Oct 2023 19:23:48 GMT

Grilled cheese is a staple food for children across America. But two Wisconsin brothers decided to take their version of grilled cheese sandwich to the next level.

Exodus and Iggy Chaudhry of Delavan, Wis., have been on a mission to break a world record on their YouTube channel, “The Exodus and Iggy Show.” After conducting some research, the pair decided that making to world’s largest grilled cheese seemed like a reasonable feat.

Using a custom-welded pan, Exodus, 11, and Iggy, 10, along with family and friends, grilled up 300 lbs. of dough along with 60 lbs. of cheese. The feast took nearly one month to assemble, according to the duo.

The cheesy sandwich measured in at 6.25 feet wide, 10.9 feet long and 2.75 inches thick. Previously, the Guinness World Record title for the world’s largest grilled cheese sandwich belonged to Cabot Creamery in Vermont. They set the record in 2000 with their sandwich weighing 320 pounds and measuring 5 feet wide, 10 feet long and 2.4 inches thick.

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Recession or Not: The Consumer Has Reached Their Breaking Point

Fri, 11 Nov 2022 17:39:40 GMT

Whether we are in a recession or not is to be determined, but I think we all can agree that we are feeling the impacts of a looming recession. Tanner Ehmke, a leading dairy economist with CoBank, says that we are not in a recession—not quite just yet.

“We’re going to be in one, probably soon,” he says. “That’s mixed news for those of us in agriculture. We want a strong consumer to buy our products. At the same time, we’re also competing for labor.”

Speaking of consumers, Ehmke says they are feeling the pinch every time they walk into the grocery store. The consumer has hit the level of how much price absorption they can take.

“We’ve hit that level,” Ehmke says. “The consumer is not going to take any more cost increase.”

The savings that the consumer was able to accumulate throughout the pandemic has dwindled thanks to higher fuel, higher rents, higher groceries and more.

“Through higher costs of everything now, those savings have been depleted,” Ehmke says. “Credit card debt is now going up. And that’s an indication for a lot of people that they’ve run out of cash.”

With all that being said, people no longer can absorb higher costs. Ehmke says that lighter foot traffic is seen in some grocery stores, while discount retailers have seen a significant increase in foot traffic.

“Even your wealthier consumers have decided that they cannot afford cost increases anymore,” he shares. “For their shopping, they’re trading down from branded products to private label store brands. They’re trading down from premium products to lower-priced commodity products. After they’ve done all of those things -- shifted retailers, shifted from brands to private label, shifted to commodity versus premium -- the next step then is for them to reduce how much volume they buy.”

Mike North, president with Ever.Ag, concurs with Ehmke and says that the looming recession is naturally top of mind for everyone. North also says that while consumers are very notably showing changes in spending, the dairy case has performed very well relative to other protein categories.

“Moreover, down trading in the food service universe can still include a lot of cheese as fine dining frequency is substituted with quick casual and delivery,” North says. “However, this may come at the expense of other fats/creams.”

Ehmke says it is going to be a balancing act between the farmers and processors going forward.

“You simply can’t pass that cost on to the consumer anymore,” he says. “It’s just going to compress margins.”

North says yes, the recession is a big story and advises producers to be mindful of normal seasonal demands that will taper into the new calendar year.

Food Inflation Makes Your Super Bowl Party Cost More

Fri, 23 Sep 2022 21:14:16 GMT

The economists at Wells Fargo, led by Dr. Michael Swanson, have some insights on how this year’s snacks for the Super Bowl are reflecting the trend of food inflation.

“Food inflation is a hot topic,” Swanson says noting that overall prices in the category are running at 6% higher than a year ago, whereas typically year-to-year food inflation is 1%.

The economists pulled data from USDA, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Nielsen data at the supermarkets, and insights from the bigger team at Wells Fargo.

Broadly, the categories more dependent on packaging and general logistical resources show the highest increases comparing at-store prices this year to last year.

By category here are some key takeaways from their findings:

Chips are only up 1%.

“We’re a great potato growing country, and so we have a good supply of potatoes this year. The chip manufacturers are very efficient at turning them into potato chips. And so even though they’ve had challenges with their packaging and their labor and their freight, they’ve kind of kept a lid on the potato chip and chip prices,” Swanson says.

Two popular dips, two different stories.

Guacamole is only up 1%.

“Avocados and guacamole have become really popular. Most people should know but maybe they don’t that most of our avocado is coming from Mexico and Peru. And we’ve seen a lot of expansion down there. They’ve found it profitable to grow avocados and turn them into guacamole,” he says. Salsa is up 6%.

“It wasn’t so much in the tomato and chilies, but it’s the packaging and labor and transportation that caught up with salsa prices,” Swanson says.

Go for bulk packaged vegetables

Swanson shares as a category you can evaluate vegetables as either bulk goods or the pre-package convenience options. He shares to save a bit on the inflationary costs, go with bulk carrots and celery and wash and chop them yourself so you are only exposed to 2 to 3% higher prices. He says the packaged salads and other such products are seeing higher cost increases.

Proteins are more expensive—some showing double digit higher prices

“We’ve seen almost every protein jump up,” Swanson says. “This is where we’re starting to see some double digit, you know, between 15 and 25% type increases depending on what protein and cut you’re talking about. So far pork has really been the bargain, in terms of increases. You can still find some really good values in the pork category,” he says.

And popularity has propelled one poultry product very high.

Wells Fargo economists quote USDA data showing prepared chicken wings are up 14% to 26% (bone-in and boneless respectively). The IQF (individually quick frozen) chickens are up 26%. So IQF wings are $3.57 per pound, and $7.24 per pound is the average for prepared wings.

Double dip on cheese, perhaps

“The American dairy complex and American dairy producers have really stepped up,” Swanson says. “We’re actually seeing about a 7% decline as a cheddar cheese from a year ago. Dairy is a category where it’s actually helping control the budget, without any runaway inflation.”

Some beverage categories quench your thirst with less inflation

Swanson’s team evaluated the costs of soft drinks, beer and wine. The report shows how packaging and logistics have swelled soft drink prices by 14%. However, market dynamics have kept beer and wine inflation more in check. He says beer prices have only increased 4%--mostly due to diversification in the market with more craft breweries in production. Wine prices are up only 3% thanks to a global market supply of products from Australia, Chile, South Africa and Europe.

Fighting Food Insecurity with Football: Here’s What Joe Burrow and Farmers Have in Common

Thu, 10 Feb 2022 17:19:13 GMT

My children and I watched live on television when the Cincinnati Bengals selected Athens, Ohio native Joe Burrow as their number one NFL draft pick in 2020. The 2019 Heisman trophy winner used his instant fame as a national platform to highlight poverty and food insecurity facing Southeast Ohio.

“Coming from Southeast Ohio, it’s a very, very impoverished area. The poverty rate is almost two times the national average,” Burrow said. “There are so many people there that don’t have a lot, and I’m up here for all those kids in Athens and Athens County that go home to not a lot of food on the table, hungry after school. You guys can be up here, too.”

That NFL draft speech from Joe Burrow struck a chord with me and easily makes me want to cheer for his team come this Super Bowl Sunday. You see, my father grew up poor, beyond my comprehension. My late father and his sister were frequently left abandoned by their single mother growing up. The only food the sibling pair could find is a bag of flour, to which they’d add some water to eat. Food scarcity is a topic that our household frequently openly talks about, as we know firsthand how blessed we are.

The statistics are alarming—according to Feeding America, 1 in 7 Americans struggle with hunger. It is now estimated that 42 million people, including 13 million children, face food insecurity. COVID-19 drew a big light and much needed attention to this issue. Having celebrities and athletes like NFL Quarterback Joe Burrow bring attention to this topic is also needed. Burrow’s 2019 speech led to a Facebook support page that quickly raised more than $350,000. Then in 2020, it led to the creation of the “Joe Burrow Hunger Relief Fund.”

In December, Burrow laced up his special orange-and-green cleats for the NFL’s “My Cause, My Cleats” campaign to help support and campaign for his hunger relief fund. On one side, Burrow’s cleats say, “Foundation for Appalachian Ohio.” On the other side, “Athens County Food Pantry.” On the back, “Joe Burrow Hunger Relief Fund.”

Again, Burrow used his platform and national spotlight to focus on food insecurity in Athens.

“It’s had a big impact to provide meals for people when they need it in the area where I’m from,” Burrow said. “The last number I saw, a couple months ago, we raised, at that point, over $6 million for people in the area. There’s a lot of stories I’ve heard where it’s really helped some people, and that means a lot to me.”

So, while all my kids can talk about is the arm of the young quarterback kid from Athens High School in Ohio, what makes me smile is his big platform that shines a big light on food insecurity. At a young age, Joe Burrow understands that he is one of the lucky ones. Not because he went onto LSU to play football or was drafted to play football in the NFL or because he is taking his team to the Super Bowl for the first time in 34 years. Like most of us, Burrow feels he is one of the fortunate ones, simply because he has food on his table. Something that many in his community, and around the world, don’t.

In 2021, more than 2.2 billion servings of milk, cheese and yogurt have been distributed through the Feeding America network. That all translates to 664 million pounds of dairy distributed to families in need.

One way to prepare for the Super Bowl is to follow Joe Burrow’s lead and help fight food insecurity. Donate by making a gift to Joe Burrow Hunger Relief Fund at www.JoeBurrowFund.org or donate to Feeding America at www.feedingamerica.org.