Cash prices

Farmers Face Budget Squeeze And Balance Sheet Challenges—Echoes Of A Decade Ago

Tue, 30 Dec 2025 21:13:24 GMT

If heading into 2026 feels a little like déjà vu, you’re picking up the same vibes Chris Barron, president and CEO of Iowa-based Ag View Solutions, is experiencing. He believes the next couple of years will echo the last big downturn farmers weathered a decade ago.

“It’s kind of scary that 2025, ’26 and ’27 look essentially like a repeat of 2015, ’16 and ’17,” Barron says. “If you remember that time frame and made it through, buckle down because I think we’re going there again.”

He says one of the clearest signals farmers are about to experience a repeat of a decade ago is based on the 2026 cost-of-production data from Ag View Solutions’ clients, who are based in 23 U.S. states and three Canadian provinces:

Soybeans: About $11.87 per bushel based on a 65-bu. average yield
Corn: About $4.69 per bushel (before basis) on a 223-bu. average, with many growers needing at least $4.85.

Some growers raising non-GMO seed beans or getting premium contracts can still make soybeans compete. But for many farms, soybeans are the weak link in the current economic cycle.

Right now, Ag View Solutions clients are expected to plant roughly 62% of their acres to corn and 38% to soybeans for 2026 — essentially the same as 2025. Barron says he doesn’t expect many acres to shift away from this mix to more soybeans “unless something really changes.”

Given current price relationships and crop insurance guarantees, Ag View Solutions data shows about a $50-per-acre advantage to corn over soybeans for the year ahead. Even if the dollars trend lower, he says corn often pencils out better because of gross revenue and risk management tools.

More Cost Pressures Heading Into 2026

It’s no secret production costs are increasing heading into the next season. Some of the key factors include:

Overhead costs (what Barron calls ‘”return to management”) for family and employee expenses, including phones, fuel and business-paid personal expenses, are up nearly 5%. After the past year or two of what Barron describes as hard belt-tightening, he says deferred spending is “snapping back” at higher levels.

Land rents are holding mostly steady, supported by higher property taxes and outside investor demand.

Interest expense is climbing as operating lines grow.

Fertilizer costs are a mixed bag. On corn, fertilizer costs are up about 7%, even though Barron believes most farms are staying with removal-rate applications. On soybeans, he says fertility costs will be lower, mainly because growers are putting less fertilizer on their bean acres and leaning harder on corn nutrients.

Machinery and equipment costs are also inching higher for the year ahead.

This Is Not A Repeat Of The 1980s

Despite the “red” many farmers will see on their spreadsheets in the year ahead, Barron says the current period is not a repeat of the 1980s farm crisis, for two key reasons:

Farmer equity is strong. Debt-to-asset ratios remain healthy for many U.S. growers, even if cash is tight.
Many farmer exits are voluntary. Today, many farmers are choosing to retire or scale back in order to protect equity.

Barron offers a recent example: “I got a call the other day on 7,000 acres, a 45-year-old farmer saying, ‘I’m not going to do this anymore. I’ve got a $5 million equity position, and I’m not going to go for a couple more years and chew away another million dollars. I’m just going to be done.’”

Strategies for the Current Climate

To survive — and potentially thrive — in this “repeat” cycle, Barron suggests focusing on these four areas in the year ahead:

Do the high-dollar work. Barron says the “$500-an-hour” work is crunching numbers in the farm office. “Know your true costs, stress-test budgets, analyze each profit center. A few hours spent with good numbers can be worth far more than another round in the tractor,” he says.
Protect yield. He advises against cutting seed, chemistry or other inputs that protect or enhance yield “just to save a few cents per bushel.”
Right-size your operation. Barron says some of the most successful turnarounds he’s seen with operations lately have come when farmers “right-sizes” — they’re doing less, but doing it better — instead of trying to be everything to everyone.
Use collaborative models. Barron says he is seeing more farmers share equipment and labor with their neighbors to spread fixed costs without extra capital.

Opportunity Will Still Knock

During a Top Producer podcast, Barron told Host Paul Neiffer that the tight times ahead will create new land-rent opportunities for some farmers who want to expand. What commonly happens when margins get tight is some farmers pull back, and that’s when expansion possibilities open up for others.

“We’ve had numerous clients call us about opportunities to rent land and not like in small amounts. When times are tight and when things aren’t good, that’s when these opportunities present themselves,” he says.

Barron’s message for those farmers in expansion mode: have your numbers, working capital and lender relationships in order now, so if the right block of ground comes available, you can move quickly and confidently on it.

If you’re interested in the ROI spreadsheet Barron’s team uses to analyze market trends, email cbarron@agviewsolutions.com .

Hear the complete discussion between Barron and Flory on Farm Journal TV . Also, you can listen to the Top Producer podcast discussion between Barron and Neiffer at the link below:

‘Farmers Can’t Outyield the Balance Sheet Anymore’

Fri, 12 Dec 2025 22:54:51 GMT

Randy Dowdy, high-yield corn and soybean farmer and agronomic consultant, paints a stark picture of the economic pressure bearing down on American farmers.

Fresh from a visit with customers, Dowdy says the same three questions dominate almost every discussion he had with growers:

Where can we cut costs?
Where do we have to spend money to stay in business?
How do we service existing debt when margins are razor thin?

Even with strong yields this year, many of the farmers, he notes, “could not outyield the balance books.” Commodity prices have not kept pace with rising costs, he says, leaving farmers struggling to keep their operations in the black.

Costs Have Soared, Partly Due To Regulations
Dowdy contrasts his early years in farming with today’s reality. When he started farming in 2008, his first tractor cost between $150,000 and $175,000. Now, he says, a similar horsepower tractor “can run roughly three times that dollar amount.”

He traces a significant part of that escalation to emissions and environmental regulations that began ramping up in the late 2000s. He recalls an initial price jump, followed by annual increases of 6% to 8% since then, compounding the burden on farm finances. The complexity that comes with the machinery systems, he argues, also has stripped farmers of their ability to repair their own equipment.

“You can’t work on [equipment] without a computer. Even the technicians can’t work on them without a computer,” he mentioned on a recent AgriTalk segment.

Noting not all of the price jump is due to emissions controls, Dowdy believes the regulatory wave gave some manufacturers cover to raise prices.

Tension Between Policy and Reality
Dowdy’s comments on AgriTalk came following a White House roundtable on Monday tied to a new $12 billion “bridge payment” plan . President Donald Trump said his administration will move quickly to ease environmental requirements affecting tractors and other farm machinery , arguing the changes will lower sticker prices and simplify repairs.

On Wednesday more news followed with Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins and Health Secretary Robert “F” Kennedy Jr., announcing a $700 million initiative for regenerative agriculture .

Dowdy said he’s not opposed to supporting agricultural niches — all of the profitable corn and soybean growers he and Total Acre business partner David Hula met with recently have some kind of specialty angle.

“If there’s a little help for those guys, I don’t have a problem with it. But at the end of the day, the row crop farmers are where the help needs to be,” he notes.

Part of the help has to do with machinery costs. He highlighted cotton pickers as one example.

“The cotton industry’s got one manufacturer that I’m aware of that makes a cotton picker. One. And it’s $1.2 million,” he says. “Where’s the competition that helps make that thing affordable?”

Dowdy doesn’t claim to have all the answers, but he would like a “seat at the table” to have a candid conversation with policymakers and regulators focused on one core goal: bringing equipment and input costs back within reach so farmers can keep their operations viable.

“I’m all for the farmer,” Dowdy says. “If the farmer wins, everybody wins.”

Dowdy and Hula address farmer profitability needs in more detail in their new Breaking Barriers With R&D podcast, available here:

You can also catch the AgriTalk discussion between Dowdy and Host Davis Michaelson below:

From Harvest to Hardship: Farmers Struggle With Cash-Flow Crunch

Tue, 25 Nov 2025 22:14:34 GMT

Across America’s heartland, most corn and soybean crops are harvested, combines have been put away, and farmers will gather with their families to enjoy the holidays ahead. But as farmers gather around dinner tables and give thanks for what they have, many are concerned about what they don’t have this fall – adequate cash flow.

That lack is the No. 1 issue facing farmers now, according to southeast Illinois farmer Sherman Newlin, who’s based in Crawford County.

“I think these low prices are starting to take a toll on guys trying to meet their cash-flow needs,” he says.

For many farmers, Newlin believes the issue isn’t just about surviving until next spring — it’s about paying land rents, covering input bills coming due, and staying afloat right now.

“Unless you’re in a good area that had really good yields, cash flow is probably going to be tight,” Newlin says.

Northeast Iowa Brent Judisch doesn’t sugarcoat the numbers he penciled out last Wednesday. “Our cash corn today is at $4.10 — that’s not going to cut it with an average yield. Our cash beans today are $10.60. With a good bean crop, that probably cash flows, but it doesn’t make any money,” he says.

Farmers Took Grain To Town At Harvest
Selling grain is about the only option many row-crop growers have had this fall to meet expenses, even if the market timing isn’t ideal, Newlin says.

“Prices for corn and soybeans have come up some. At harvest, things were quite a bit lower than where they are right now,” Newlin says. “But it’s kind of hard to take advantage of a rally if you sold across the scale and didn’t come back in and reown [the crop] on paper.”

Judisch says there are some “better bids out there” for farmers who can wait to market corn in late winter, February and March.

“But for the short term, [buyers] are not having to bid up that much to get it because guys are just having to turn some stuff into cash to pay the December rents,” he says.

(Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor)

The November Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor survey reflects farmers’ current cash-flow pressure as well as their mindset in how they are approaching marketing decisions now. The survey, administered by Farm Journal, shows:

53% of ag economists say farmers are marketing defensively, prioritizing liquidity and risk reduction.
41% of ag economists say farmers are reactive, delaying decisions due to uncertainty.

Where Is The Financial Stress Most Severe?
Jackson Takach, chief economist for Farmer Mac, tells Farm Journal his reports indicate farmers’ top concern is liquidity (working capital) and their second-highest concern is farm income.

“We know cash flows are top of mind,” he says. “As prices have come down, people are talking about it more and digging into working capital, and that’s causing a little bit of distress, particularly in the grain side of the ag economy.”

Takach says the economic stress is highest in parts of the country where soybeans are farmers’ No. 1 crop.

“You look at the Delta, that’s where we’re seeing a lot of stress popping up in bankruptcies as well as late payments, because of some of that additional stress coming through with lower commodity prices specific to soybeans.”

That sentiment is similar to what was shared in the November Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor survey, though the Monitor paints a broader picture. When asked in which region farmers face the most severe financial pressure, economists reported that “cotton and rice country is suffering from especially poor profitability and weak sentiment.”

Without action, long-term farmer viability is at risk, according to John Newton, American Farm Bureau Federation economist. “Additional financial support is critical to offset trade losses and provide a bridge until farm bill enhancements from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act go into effect,” he says in a release. “This will stabilize the farm economy, sustain rural economies and maintain affordable food prices.”

Will China Come Through On Soybean Purchases?
The fate of soybean exports is on nearly everyone’s radar, especially as China’s purchases for 2025 still hang in the balance.

Reuters’ Karl Plume reports that China is starting to make good on its promises, noting that “two cargo vessels were headed for grain port terminals near New Orleans on Monday to load with the first U.S. soybean shipments to China since May, according to a shipping schedule seen by Reuters.”

But Judisch warns the window for 2025 U.S. soybean sales to China is closing fast.

“We’re going to have to see some immediate results from this agreement [with China], because if this drags into January and February and Brazil comes online, I’m not very optimistic that we’re going to make the goals that were set between the U.S. and China.”

Farmers Press On And Start Planning For Next Season
With 2026 around the corner, cautious optimism about the new year mingles with the current hard reality of farmers’ cash-flow drought.

Judisch notes that successful negotiations by the Trump administration to drop tariffs on some items, such as fertilizer, aren’t helping financially strapped farmers. He says that was a scenario of a little help that arrived too late.

“Stopping the tariffs on fertilizer this late in the game does no good for the 2026 crop because you’ve either got it on fields already or your buildings are already full of high-priced fertilizer,” Judisch contends.

“It’s kind of a bugaboo for us,” he adds. “Our costs are staying high even with the tariffs being dropped on fertilizer, but our income is just not going to be there until probably next summer.”

Cash rents for 2026 is one important aspect of the financial equation for the year ahead that 100% of ag economists surveyed this month recommend farmers dig into now. Notes one ag economist: “Cash rent could use more attention as a majority of land is rented… it would be nice if landlords knew that they may need to lower cash rent.”

(Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor)

Newlin says he and other farmers he knows in his area are sorting through crop rotations for next season – whether to plant more corn and
fewer soybeans or less corn and more soybeans.

“We’ll probably be heavier corn next year just because of our rotation, but a lot of guys are going to be heavier in corn in our area,” Newlin says.

Judisch is sticking with his 60-40 ratio of corn to beans next season. Like Newlin, he believes other farmers could lean toward more corn in the year ahead, given the financial opportunity many believe corn offers.

“We’ve seen some very good export sales on corn, so there are some good things happening,” Judisch says. “We need to keep them going in the future. That’s the biggest thing.”

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