Biofuels

American Soybean Association Clears Up E15 Stance as Senate Debate Intensifies

Thu, 14 May 2026 19:09:57 GMT

The House vote to expand year-round E15 on Wednesday should have been a clean policy victory lap for ethanol supporters. Instead, it’s become a multi-layered debate involving competing economic models, social media confusion, and an increasingly complicated Senate runway that may determine whether the win in the House actually translates into law.

The House narrowly passed legislation Wednesday allowing year-round sales of E15, 218 to 203, marking a major win for ethanol advocates and corn growers. But that bill also included reallocation of Small Refinery Exemptions (SREs), which some groups say made the bill more complicated than just a straight bill that would clear the way for year-round sales E15.

But even as supporters celebrate, the conversation around what’s actually in the bill, and who benefits most, has only intensified.

And according to the American Soybean Association, much of the online backlash in recent days is rooted in a misunderstanding of the legislation itself.

“We Support Year-Round E15. 100%.”

ASA CEO Stephen Censky told Farm Journal the organization is not opposed to year-round E15.

“Absolutely. We have always supported year-round E15. We think it’s positive,” Censky says.

But Censky argues the social media controversy stems not from the ethanol provision itself, but from additional language in the House bill that deals with Small Refinery Exemptions (SREs) under the Renewable Fuel Standard.

“It’s those other provisions that provide exemptions to small refineries that undermine that positivity,” he says, also noting that multiple independent analyses suggest those provisions could shift the broader farm economy in less favorable ways.

ASA Statement on House Passage of Year-Round E15 Legislation: pic.twitter.com/bbewbGSF6c
— American Soybean Association (@ASA_Soybeans) May 13, 2026

FAPRI Study Adds Fuel Ahead of Vote

One of those studies came from the University of Missouri’s Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI). Just ahead of the House vote, new modeling from FAPRI added fresh insight into the debate show that when you add in the reallocation of SREs, the House bill is a net negative for agriculture.

The analysis found that year-round E15 alone is relatively modest in its near-term market impact, largely shifting demand between corn and soybeans. But when paired with changes to Small Refinery Exemptions, the economic picture becomes more complicated.

“It takes what is really a trade-off between corn and beans and makes it an overall negative for both what the government spends and for the farm income for the sector,” says Seth Meyer, director of FAPRI.

NCGA Disputes Modeling Assumptions

After the report was released on Tuesday, groups like the National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) pushed back on the recent economic analysis by both FAPRI and the CBO.

NCGA Chief Economist Krista Swanson argued that key assumptions in the studies underestimate both policy strength and adoption speed.

“Year-round E15 saves drivers money at the pump, supports America’s corn farmers and improves energy security for our country,” she says, adding that the group’s own modeling shows stronger outcomes for farm income.

ASA Pushes Back on “Corn vs. Soy” Narrative

Even though controversy swirled on social media, claiming ASA’s lack of support for the House version of the bill shows a split between corn and soybean groups, Censky rejects the idea.

“No, I mean, again, I think that comes from a misunderstanding or maybe too simplistic of looking at things,” he says. “We support year-round E15, so does NCGA.”

He points to shared support from the NCGA, while emphasizing that the disagreement centers on refinery exemption language, not ethanol blending policy itself.

“It’s those other provisions (SREs) that were attached to that bill that we have the problems with,” he says,.

Senate Outlook: A Far More Complicated Road Ahead

If the House vote represented momentum, the Senate introduces a much higher degree of uncertainty .

Washington analyst Jim Wiesemeyer says the House approval was still a meaningful breakthrough for ethanol supporters, but the path forward now runs into procedural hurdles, committee jurisdiction battles and a Senate math problem that doesn’t easily resolve.

“Senate passage remains uncertain,” Wiesemeyer notes, pointing to the fact that Clean Air Act authority tied to E15 summer sales rests largely with the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, not the Senate Ag Committee.

Wiesemeyer reports while Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) has expressed support for including year-round E15 in a broader farm bill effort, the jurisdiction split complicates the path forward. EPW Chair Shelley Moore Capito has supported compromise language similar to the House bill, but without the more controversial SRE-related reforms. Ranking Member Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), meanwhile, is expected to oppose expansion efforts tied to ethanol policy under Clean Air Act authority.

That leaves Senate Ag Chairman John Boozman (R-Ark.) in a key position, but without full control over the underlying regulatory levers.

But even Boozman was clear after the Senate vote that the House version could face resitance in teh Senate. Boozman, who akso serves as Chairman of the House Ag Committee, telling Politico the House version may not have enough support to make it through the upper chamber, saying after the vote, “I think we have a good chance to pass an E15 bill. I don’t know if it will be that one.”

Senate Ag Chair John Boozman tells @politico the House-passed E15 bill doesn’t seem likely to survive the Senate:

“I think we have a good chance to pass an E15 bill. I don't know if it will be that one.”

Reiterates he and other Rs have small and medium size refinery issues https://t.co/4suzybfgrr
— Meredith Lee Hill (@meredithllee) May 13, 2026

Even if a path emerges through committee, Wiesemeyer notes that a stand-alone bill would still need 60 votes for cloture on the Senate floor, an uphill climb given opposition from refining-state senators and lawmakers concerned about emissions, fuel volatility, and air-quality standards.

That bipartisan resistance could force supporters to consider alternative strategies.

One option, according to Wiesemeyer, is something increasingly discussed in Washington: attaching year-round E15 to a must-pass legislative vehicle later this year, such as a broader energy package, government funding bill, or end-of-year omnibus-style agreement, where controversial policy riders are often resolved in larger negotiations.

For now, Wiesemeyer’s bottom line mirrors the broader tone emerging from both the economic analysis and the policy debate: the House delivered a meaningful win for ethanol supporters, but in the Senate, the path forward is anything but settled, and the final outcome is still very much in play.

Where the Uncertainty Really Sits

Much of the debate now centers on variables that remain unresolved: how quickly E15 is adopted, how EPA interprets Renewable Fuel Standard obligations, and how aggressively Small Refinery Exemptions are implemented in practice.

Those unknowns, analysts say, will ultimately determine whether the legislation is a modest reshuffling of crop demand or a more meaningful shift in long-term farm income trends.

US House Passes Bill Allowing Year-Round Sales of E15 Gasoline

Thu, 14 May 2026 12:31:16 GMT

The U.S. House passed legislation on Wednesday that would allow nationwide year‑round sales of gasoline containing 15% ethanol, handing a major win to biofuel producers and farm groups while raising concerns among refiners about higher compliance costs.

The H.R. 1346 bill , or the Nationwide Consumer and Fuel Retailer Choice Act, approved by a vote of 218 to 203, would permit fuel retailers to offer E15 year‑round, removing seasonal restrictions linked to smog concerns.

The legislation would need to pass the Senate, where it needs 60% of votes, and get a signature from President Donald Trump to be enacted.

Supporters say allowing year-round E15 sales would expand biofuel demand and help lower fuel prices that have spiked since the start of the Iran war. Critics argue it risks raising costs for refiners already facing higher compliance burdens under federal biofuel mandates.

Some lawmakers have also raised fiscal concerns, with Representative James McGovern, a Massachusetts Democrat, saying the measure will add billions to U.S. debt.

The Congressional Budget Office estimates the bill would increase direct spending by $2.7 billion while raising revenues by $0.4 billion, resulting in a net deficit increase of about $2.3 billion between 2026 and 2036, based on an assumption that the legislation would take effect in August 2026.

High fuel prices due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, conduit for a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, have become a major vulnerability for President Donald Trump and his Republican party ahead of the November midterm elections.

(Reporting by Siddharth Cavale in New York; Editing by Sonali Paul)

House E15 Bill Could Boost Corn Prices While Pressuring Soybeans, FAPRI Finds

Tue, 12 May 2026 19:43:45 GMT

As the House prepares to vote on year-round E15 , there’s a new study out from the University of Missouri’s Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) , and it’s is giving agriculture and biofuels groups an early look at what expanded year-round E15 sales and changes to Small Refinery Exemptions (SRE) could mean for farmers and rural America. While there are positives for ethanol and corn demand, the report also highlights some clear tradeoffs, especially for soybean oil, biodiesel and even short-term farm income as soybeans could be negatively impacted by the House’s legislation.

According to FAPRI Director Seth Meyer, the study’s clearest takeaway is that year-round E15 alone doesn’t dramatically reshape the farm economy in the near term, but proposed changes to small refinery exemptions could pressure farm income while increasing government spending.

Meyer says the headline is pretty straightforward. The biggest market disruptions in the analysis don’t actually come from allowing year-round E15 sales. Instead, the larger economic consequences show up when the House proposal to reduce SRE reallocations gets layered into the equation.

“The key of the report is that E15 itself is not, at least in the short term, a major disruption to the market in terms of producer incomes or government costs,” Meyer says. “It becomes mostly a tradeoff between corn and soybeans.”

SRE Allocations Changes the Story

Meyer says the study found that if it was just a clean E15 bill, the results would be different. But when you factor in the SREs, and the fact it’s still unknown on how big that volume would end up being, the House version of the bill becomes a negative for the entire agriculture sector very quickly.

“I think what was important was to put out some information that says E15 in and of itself is largely, at least in the near term, a trade-off between corn and beans,” says Meyer. “It’s good for the corn part of the balance sheet, maybe a little harder on the soybean part of the ballot sheet because there are trade-offs. But then the bill also proposes small refinery exemptions that are essentially a reduction in the mandates, and that is a negative overall. That takes what is really a trade-off between corn and beans and makes it an overall negative for both what the government spends and for the farm income for the sector.”

In FAPRI’s modeling, reducing the amount of waived refinery obligations that get redistributed across the rest of the refining sector effectively lowers Renewable Fuel Standard volumes. That shift weakens biofuel feedstock demand and creates more pressure on soybean markets and farm income.

“It is the addition of the small refinery exemptions and the proposal to not reallocate 75% of those obligations that government costs we track begin to rise and farm income begins to fall,” Meyer explains. “Those SREs are the main drivers of government costs and reductions in farm income because they are, in effect, a reduction in the RVOs or mandates.”

The FAPRI analysis looked at three scenarios tied to HR 1346, the Nationwide Consumer and Fuel Retailer Choice Act:

E15 expansion alone
E15 plus 600 million gallons of SRE reductions
E15 plus 900 million gallons of SRE reductions

Under the model, E15 adoption gradually grows by 0.25% annually, eventually pushing the average ethanol blend rate to 13% by 2035. That increase would add roughly 2 billion gallons of domestic ethanol use by the mid-2030s, while simultaneously changing the balance between ethanol and biomass-based diesel under the RFS structure.

What Happens to Corn and Soybeans?

FAPRI’s findings show E15 expansion boosts corn demand and corn acreage over time. By 2035, corn prices rise about 14 cents per bushel versus baseline levels, with additional corn acres pulled into production as ethanol demand expands.

But, according to the report, the gains for corn do not translate evenly across the broader crop sector. As ethanol demand rises, biomass-based diesel demand weakens, which directly pressures soybean oil values and eventually soybean prices. That’s especially true under the SRE scenarios, where lower mandated renewable fuel volumes further reduce demand for biodiesel feedstocks.

“So while corn may benefit, a reduction in the RVO has negative implications for soybeans that outweigh those corn benefits,” Meyer explains.

The report projects soybean prices could fall between 38 and 43 cents per bushel by 2035, depending on the SRE scenario. Soybean acreage also trends lower throughout the projection period as acres shift toward corn production.

Meanwhile, soybean oil prices take an even larger hit because biodiesel absorbs much of the downside under reduced RFS obligations. Meyer says that dynamic is rooted in how current mandates are being met today.

“You see bio-based diesel decline in all cases because, at the moment, the majority of the marginal gallons to meet the mandates are biodiesel,” Meyer says. “If you expand the small refinery exemptions, those volume reductions are no longer a tradeoff between ethanol and bio-based diesel, but a reduction in the marginal gallon, which is bio-based diesel.”

Farm Income Turns Negative Before Recovering

One of the more notable findings in the study is that net farm income trends negative for several years under the SRE scenarios before eventually recovering later in the outlook period. While stronger corn demand helps offset some losses, it isn’t enough in the early years to counter the broader drag from weaker soybean and bio-based diesel markets.

Under the larger 900-million-gallon SRE scenario, net farm income falls by as much as $1 billion annually during the early 2030s before improving later in the decade. FAPRI also projects higher government outlays under the SRE scenarios as weaker commodity prices trigger additional farm program support.

Meyer says soybean losses are the biggest driver behind the weaker farm income projections. He also notes that ripple effects extend into livestock feeding costs because of tighter soybean meal supplies and higher corn demand.

“The notable driver in the outcome is the losses for soybeans as the SREs cut mandates,” he adds.

The livestock sector also sees higher feed costs as corn demand rises and soybean meal supplies tighten. Over time, those higher feed costs work their way through animal agriculture and eventually impact consumer meat prices as producers adjust inventories and production decisions.

Key Points From the Study

E15 expansion alone modestly boosts corn demand with relatively limited disruption to overall farm income.
Reduced SRE reallocation lowers effective RFS mandates and creates the largest negative impacts on crop receipts and government outlays.
Biomass-based diesel demand declines more sharply than ethanol demand under the proposed changes.
Corn acreage rises while soybean acreage falls across all scenarios.
The long-term outcome depends heavily on how quickly E15 adoption actually happens — and whether EPA eventually expands the conventional ethanol “gap” above 15 billion gallons.

That final point may be one of the biggest wildcards in the entire discussion, said Meyer. FAPRI’s analysis assumes the conventional ethanol portion of the Renewable Fuel Standard effectively remains capped near 15 billion gallons. If EPA policy or future legislation allows that cap to move higher, the economics for agriculture could look considerably different.

“You call out a very important assumption,” Meyer says. “If the passage of E15 were to drive an expansion of that 15-billion-gallon conventional gap to 16 or 17 billion gallons and raise total mandates by that same amount, this would increase benefits or reduce losses in the ag sector across all the scenarios.”

Corn Growers React, Disagrees With “Two Fundamental Assumptions”

The recent analyses examining the potential impacts of year-round E15 adoption are drawing sharp disagreement from the National Corn Growers Association (NCGA), which says key assumptions in those models undercut the policy’s real-world effects.

In response to the reports, Krista Swanson, NCGA’s chief economist, argued that the studies fail to account for recent federal biofuel policy changes and underestimate how quickly E15 could be adopted in the marketplace.

“We disagree with two fundamental assumptions with recent analyses related to year-round E15 adoption: they do not factor in the historically high final RVO volumes recently set for biomass-based diesel and they assume slower E15 adoption than industry projections,” Swanson says.

Swanson added that NCGA’s own modeling reaches a very different conclusion on the policy’s impact on farm income and fuel markets.

“NCGA has also conducted its own analysis of year-round E15 and all outcomes point in the same direction: E15 strengthens corn demand and farm income for corn farmers, most of whom also raise soybeans. Year-round E15 saves drivers money at the pump, supports America’s corn farmers and improves energy security for our country. H.R. 1346 deserves a yes vote.”

The Biggest Unknowns

Meyer says there are still several major uncertainties surrounding both E15 adoption and how EPA ultimately implements future RFS obligations. Those unknowns could significantly alter how these market impacts unfold over the next decade.

“I don’t think there is a single assumption on this complicated issue, so let me state three,” he adds. “First is the true path of E15 expansion and more importantly, the second is how that might drive changes in mandates as a result. Third, what is the true volume of exemptions that would result from the legislation? Because we don’t have this information, we did two scenarios.”

The pace of actual consumer adoption also matters. While the model assumes gradual E15 growth over time, Meyer says a slower adoption curve would likely soften some of the corn demand benefits while making the negative impacts tied to SRE reductions more apparent.

“If growth in E15 is slower and we look just at the ‘clean’ E15, it just changes the amount of tradeoffs between corn and soybeans,” Meyer said. “But if we had slower E15 growth with SRE reductions, we would show more negative impacts on crop prices and farm income from the SREs.”

The New Biofuel Boom? Historic RFS Mandates Drive 2 Billion-Gallon Expansion

Fri, 03 Apr 2026 14:54:21 GMT

The EPA’s finalized “Set 2” rule under the Renewable Fuel Standard is doing something rare in U.S. biofuel policy: it is not just stabilizing the market, it could jolt it.

With blending mandates for 2026 and 2027 set at historic highs , including a more than 60% jump over 2025 levels for biomass-based diesel, the rule is already being read across the industry as a catalyst for a new expansion cycle — one that could ripple from fuel producers back to soybean fields, livestock operations and emerging oilseed crops.

A Demand Shock, But By Design

“It sure feels like it,” says Matt Upmeyer, director of feedstock sourcing and strategy at Montana Renewables, when asked whether the policy signals the next biofuel boom. “We received a strong RVO, adding about 2 billion gallons of biomass-based diesel demand, and that’s a huge increase. And certainly feedstock demand is growing as well. That 2 billion of biomass-based diesel represents about 15 billion lb. of feedstock for the biodiesel and renewable diesel producers. And that really translates directly back to farm and agriculture growth as well.”

From Underperformance to Full Throttle

For an industry coming off a sharp downturn, where biodiesel production fell significantly in 2025 and facilities idled or slowed, the scale of the mandate is not just notable — it is corrective.

“I mean, I think it is realistic,” Upmeyer says of the aggressive growth targets. “The industry is poised to meet that demand. We’ve got capacity. The renewable industry, which is both biodiesel and renewable diesel, has a combined capacity of probably around 7 billion gallons. So meeting that mandate, I don’t think is a problem.”

But meeting it will require a fundamental reshuffling of how feedstocks move through the system.

“We will definitely see some changes and shifts in the feedstock flows,” he says. “We talked a little bit about the soybean oil increase and the production of soybean oil through crush. I think also you’re going to see the tallow industry and choice white grease, the hog industry, as well as poultry fat — all of those are going to find their way into the renewable diesel and biodiesel in a greater way. I think we’ll maximize all of the available low-CI feedstocks, including distillers corn oil. And then from there, obviously, the demand will be filled with soy.”

That expansion does not stop at just soybeans. Upmeyer says there are other crops that stand to benefit from this newly released RFS.

“I think that as we expand the amount of biomass-based diesel we produce, we’re going to start looking to other feedstocks as well. So canola, there’s a fair amount of canola grown in the United States, and certainly our neighbors to the north are large canola producers,” Upmeyer says. “I think that will become an integral part of what we do. And then there’s other low-CI feedstocks that are sort of on the cusp, things like camelina and different things like that will get attracted new attention right now to see how they may fit into the future mandates and production.”

If you look at the past year, biodiesel and renewable diesel facilities reportedly shut down or ran well below capacity in 2025, which led to a one-third drop in U.S. biodiesel production compared to 2024.

When asked if these new RVOs from EPA will reverse that trend and give them enough confidence to bring that production back online, Upmeyer says it should.

“The biodiesel industry got hit hard. Their production costs are higher than renewable diesel, and so they certainly felt that when we had a lower RVO under the Set 1 rule. I think we’re getting close to a point where these plants will start back up. Margins have improved dramatically.”

He adds nuance to that recovery, noting cost pressures still linger.

“Biodiesel producers have a slightly different process than renewable diesel,” he says. “They take fats, oils and greases, combine them with methanol and catalysts to make biodiesel. And methanol costs have shot up, right? So I think the marginal producers on biodiesel are still probably not super inclined to start up, but certainly the integrated biodiesel plants will be running hard. And I do believe that even the marginal biodiesel players will get a chance to restart those assets in the near term.”

A Policy Twist: The Half-RIN Question

One of the most debated elements of the rule — the proposed “half-RIN” provision for 2028 — adds another layer of complexity, particularly for feedstock sourcing and trade.

“We just couldn’t get our heads around the administrative burden that might be associated with a half-RIN,” Upmeyer says. “How do you account for feedstocks coming in from some Canadian origin, some domestic, some from foreign sources? So I think there was an administrative burden that was certainly problematic.”

“This is certainly in line with the administration’s desire to maintain energy independence in the U.S. and to have a U.S.-based and U.S.-centric market for our crop inputs and fuels,” he says. “So I think there were a lot of things that went into this. But at the end of the day, it’s still on the table for 2028. I don’t think there’s clear guidance yet, but it certainly left that door open to address this issue in the Set 3 rule.”

A Win for Agriculture

When asked if he would classify this is a “win for U.S. agriculture,” Upmeyer said the immediate impact of the record-high blending mandates for 2026 and 2027 is already clear to those closest to the supply chain.

“I think it’s a great win,” Upmeyer says. “Again, we’re really underpinning the demand for soybeans and crush. We’ve got a strong demand for the rendered products that come from the beef industry and hog industry. So, I think this is a win for agriculture and for the renewable fuels industry. We certainly applaud the administration’s commitment to energy independence, to the renewable space and ultimately to agriculture.”

White House Sets Record Biofuel Volumes for 2026 and 2027

Fri, 27 Mar 2026 18:36:32 GMT

In the 20th year of the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) program, the White House has established the renewable fuel volume requirements for 2026 and 2027 at the highest levels in program history. The Set 2 final rule, announced at the White House Great American Agriculture Celebration in front of 650 invited attendees, realigns the program with Congress’ intent to increase the use of homegrown American biofuels.

“Today’s announcement is truly historic for our nation’s farmers and energy producers. These numbers represent the highest levels of biofuels ever required to be blended into our fuel supply,” says Brooke Rollins, Secretary of Agriculture. “With President Trump and Administrator Zeldin’s leadership, these historically high volumes are expected to create a $3 to $4 billion increase in net farm income. The Renewable Fuel Standard Set 2 Rule will create a $31 billion dollar value for American corn and soybean oil for biofuel production in 2026, which is $2 billion more than in 2025. Our farmers are stepping up to grow American energy dominance.”

Just this week, EPA renewed emergency waivers for E15 gasoline sales during the summer driving season.

What Does the Set 2 Final Rule Mean for Farmers

To meet the 2026 and 2027 volume levels, EPA estimates biodiesel and renewable diesel production and use will need to increase by more than 60% versus 2025 volumes. The increase was above the initial proposal.

“The proposal that we saw nine months ago was extremely robust,” explained Kurt Kovarik of the Clean Fuels Alliance America. “In fact, our industry, along with the petroleum sector and the soybean growers, asked for a volume requirement for 2026 of 5.25 billion gallons. They proposed 5.61 billion gallons. And today’s proposal is right in that neighborhood between 5.5 to perhaps as high as 5.6 or 5.7. There’s a little bit of math yet that needs to be done.”

He said that in 2025, biodiesel and renewable diesel facilities were forced to shut down or run far below prior-year production levels due to market uncertainty. U.S. biodiesel production declined by one-third in 2025, compared to 2024.

“Biodiesel and renewable diesel represent 10% of the value of every bushel of U.S.-grown soybeans, contributing to President Trump’s desire for American energy dominance and domestic market demand for agriculture commodities,” said Kovarik. “American farmers and other feedstock providers are eager for the growing domestic clean fuel market to drive value in agriculture, along with economic growth and job creation in rural communities. American consumers are desperate for secure, affordable domestic energy. Today’s rule is a clear win for the nation’s energy security.”

With the benefits Set 2 will bring to America’s farmers, EPA estimates the rule will generate more than $10 billion for rural economies and create more than 100,000 new jobs in the agricultural and manufacturing sectors. To provide continued certainty for American corn growers and ethanol producers, EPA will maintain the 15 billion conventional biofuel level for 2026 and 2027.

Based on EPA’s latest release on March 27

(EPA)

What are Renewable Volume Obligations?

RVOs are targets set by EPA to determine how much renewable fuel must be blended into the U.S. transportation fuel supply. EPA determines the total volume of different categories of biofuels that should be used in the country for multi-year periods. Once decided, EPA converts the total volumes into percentage standards, which represent the ratio of renewable fuel to the total amount of gasoline and diesel expected to be consumed in the U.S. that year.

Each “obligated party,” typically refiners and importers of gasoline and diesel, calculates its RVO by multiplying EPA’s percentage standards by the total volume of non-renewable gasoline and diesel they produce or import. To prove they have met their RVO, obligated parties must use a serial number attached to each gallon of biofuel, known as Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs). When the biofuel is blended into the fuel supply, the RIN is “separated” from the physical fuel.

At the end of the compliance year, obligated parties must submit to EPA enough RINs to cover their specific RVO. If a refiner blends more biofuel than required, they can sell their excess RINs to other refiners who have not met their obligations.

Adjusted Small Refinery Exemptions

The EPA also finalized the reallocation of the volumes from Small Refinery Exemptions from 2023 through 2025. Those are now set at 70%.

“Adding it to the top line volume for 2026 and 2027, the volumes that were waived over those three years will be made up in 2026 and 2027,” Kovarik. “For our industry, that’s somewhere between an additional 200 to 250 million gallons a year.”

He says that is on top of the already robust minimum volume that EPA set. The agency claims the RFS rule will create $31 billion in value for American corn and soybean oil.

Renewable Fuels Association (RFA) President and CEO Geoff Cooper noted that while they advocated for full reallocation of the 2023-2025 SREs, the 70 percent reallocation included in today’s rule is better than other options that were under consideration. EPA had proposed 50 percent reallocation as an option and also solicited public feedback on no reallocation at all.

“We continue to believe small refinery exemptions are completely unjustified, and the SRE petition process—including EPA’s reliance on the Department of Energy’s ‘scoring matrix'—is fundamentally flawed,” Cooper said. “SREs distort the market, undermine fair competition, and destabilize the RFS program. And while RFA appreciates EPA’s efforts to minimize market disruptions by reallocating most of the renewable volume lost to SREs, we believe the Agency has a duty to fully restore all exempted volumes.”

RVO Reaction Pours In

The Renewable Fuels Association (RFA) and other farm groups applaud the RVO announcement from EPA.

“Today’s RFS rule supports continued growth in American-made renewable fuels like ethanol and brings much-needed certainty and stability to the marketplace,” said RFA on X.com .

Today’s RFS rule supports continued growth in American-made renewable fuels like #ethanol and brings much-needed certainty and stability to the marketplace. We are grateful to @POTUS and @epaleezeldin.https://t.co/FdovzBqLUr
— Renewable Fuels Association (@EthanolRFA) March 27, 2026

“Congress intended year-to-year renewable fuel blending to increase under the RFS and today’s announcement with the highest-ever volume obligations helps fulfill their intention,” said Brian Jennings, CEO for American Coalition for Ethanol. “We’ve consistently advocated for strong final blending obligations for 2026 and 2027, reflecting the full potential of the RFS and ensuring small refinery exemptions (SREs) do not erode demand for renewable fuels.”

Jennings says the integrity of the RFS depends on ensuring volume obligations translate into real-world demand. Any gap between required volumes and actual blending undermines the program and creates uncertainty for ethanol producers, farmers, and rural communities.

“We appreciate President Trump, Administrator Zeldin and Secretary Rollins for delivering strong RVO volumes and doing so in a way that recognizes the importance of American farmers,” said NSP Chair Amy France, a farmer from Scott City, Kan. “These volumes provide critical certainty for sorghum producers and help strengthen demand across the biofuels sector.”

NSP also highlighted EPA’s decision to reallocate 70 percent of previously exempted volumes, helping ensure that promised demand is realized.

“Maintaining the integrity of the Renewable Fuel Standard is essential,” France said. “Reallocating those gallons helps protect the market opportunities farmers depend on. We need to build on this momentum and get year-round E15 across the finish line.”

Ohio farmer and National Corn Growers Association President Jed Bower, who was present at the White House for the announcement, also weighed in on the latest volumes.

“Our deep thanks go to President Trump and Administrator Zeldin for releasing these robust RVO numbers in an exceptionally timely manner and, appropriately, during an event honoring America’s farmers. This action provides certainty to corn farmers across the country who rely on a stable biofuels industry. Today’s announcement, coupled with the Trump administration’s E15 summertime waiver earlier this week, is a positive move for the nation’s corn growers who are navigating an exceptionally difficult economic environment. There is still more to be done to help our growers, and we look forward to working side-by-side with the president and our allies in Congress to get permanent year-round E15 legislation over the finish line.”

Fuel and Fertilizer Costs Surge

While there’s hope that embracing biofuels can help bolster the farm economy and lower prices at the pump, farmers are feeling the fallout of higher oil prices. According to AAA on Friday, the national average for a gallon of diesel fuel was $5.38. That’s nearly $2 per gallon higher than it was just a year ago, and it’s happening right as farmers gear up for the spring planting season.

“To help lower gasoline prices for farmers and consumers, this week, I issued an emergency order to allow immediate sales of E-15 — and just as I promised in the campaign, I’m seeking Congressional action to allow E-15 all-year-round,” said President Trump.

Fertilizer prices are also significantly higher in the last few weeks. While some farmers pre-applied acres last fall and others bought earlier in 2026, there are still a number of acres left to cover.

President Trump to Announce Actions to Help U.S. Farmers on Friday

Thu, 26 Mar 2026 17:56:45 GMT

President Donald Trump on Thursday said his administration will announce actions to help U.S. farmers on Friday, as the White House prepares to host hundreds of farmers, ranchers and executives for an event highlighting the agricultural sector.

.@POTUS Trump LOVES America's farmers and our farmers LOVE him back!!

Our Administration is working around the clock to to deliver real relief and boost the farm economy and make necessary long term structural changes to our trading relationship, putting our farmers first.… pic.twitter.com/bVGgdzFfna
— Secretary Brooke Rollins (@SecRollins) March 26, 2026

The move comes as the administration is expected to release long-awaited biofuel blending quotas under the Renewable Fuel Standard, a policy closely watched by corn growers, ethanol producers and oil refiners that dictates how much renewable fuel must be mixed into the nation’s gasoline and diesel supply.

Reuters reported that the Trump administration will release its 2026-27 biofuel blending volume obligations this week, according to two sources familiar with the matter. The rule will not differ materially from volumes proposed by the EPA prior to the onset of the Iran war , the sources said.

Trump, speaking to reporters at a cabinet meeting on Thursday, said U.S. farmers had been mistreated by some countries and touted the multibillion-dollar bailout farmers received to help offset losses related to tariffs .

The biofuel decision ‌comes ⁠at a fraught moment for both the oil and farm sectors, with the White House balancing pressure from refiners worried about gasoline prices and farmers counting on stronger biofuel demand to support crop markets.

(Reporting by Steve Holland, Doina Chiacu and Humeyra Pamuk; Editing by Daphne Psaledakis and Caitlin Webber)

What the Treasury’s Announcement on 45Z Tax Credits Means to Farmers

Tue, 03 Feb 2026 22:56:55 GMT

On Feb. 3, the Treasury Department confirmed farmers will have a seat at the table to benefit from 45Z tax credits with its release of a 170-page document stating its proposed rule.

“They made a bunch of clarifications for the biofuel producers today — who qualifies, what qualifies, how to calculate and how to register,” says Mitchell Hora, an Iowa farmer and founder of Continuum Ag. “It says farmers are going to a have a seat at the table, too, which is what we’ve been advocating for this whole time.”

There have been questions over the past nearly four years since 45Z was first proposed as a biofuel producer tax credit based on carbon intensity of feedstocks. It’s had iterations through the Biden administration’s Inflation Reduction Act, and now the Trump administration’s “One Big Beautiful Bill.”

As written in the proposed rule, biofuels feedstocks would be limited to be sourced from the U.S., Canada and Mexico.

“Clearly, the Treasury has been very concerned about foreign feedstock, especially foreign used coconut oil and palm oil,” Hora says.

For farmers, three big questions remain.

1. What’s the model used to calculate carbon intensity?

Before today’s announcement, there were two competing models, one from the Department of Energy (known as GREET) and one from USDA announced last January. Today, the Treasury confirmed it’ll be a model from USDA, though it’s a new version now called 45Z FD-CIC.

“It’s going to be something different altogether, which is a combo of the two,“ Hora says. “We don’t know all the details yet, but we know they are going to utilize the language from USDA regarding verification, traceability and audits.”

Hora expects the model to use ag practices in its calculations, including cover crops, reduced tillage, fertilizer efficiency, manure and yield.

As for when the final USDA-driven 45Z FD-CIC will be released, Hora says ‘hopefully soon.’

2. Which chain of custody methodology will be used?

Hora is advocating for book and claim, which he says is more straightforward and would allow a farmer to sell their crop based on the carbon intensity (CI) score of a field, avoiding identity preservation or blending. The alternative is mass balance.

“The big thing that we want to see happen in the USDA rules is that the farmer data should be accounted for via a book and claim,” he says.

3. How much is this worth to the farmer?

Hora says today’s announcement clarifies a lot of the rule for the biofuels producer, which is the recipient of the tax credit. How much of that value will be shared with the farmer is still unknown.

“We’ve shown that farmers could contribute an average CI reduction of 18 CI points, which could translate to pretty substantial value, upwards of close to a dollar a bushel,” he says. “That’s to the ethanol plant, though. The biofuel producer gets the money. A farmer would get a portion of that, and we don’t know how the pie is going to be split, but the total pie that the farmers could contribute to, under the current models, the math ends up being $1.08 per bushel.”

While today’s announcement doesn’t mean money will start moving, Hora says we’re closer than ever to having opportunities for farmers.

Moving Forward With What is Known

Hora says while those questions have yet to be answered, he knows record keeping is paramount to seize on the opportunity. As such, he’s encouraging farmers to get their field-level data in order, including as applied maps, receipts, shape files, aerial imagery, etc.

“At least we got clarity today that this thing is going to happen. [There’s] still a process ahead, but farmers have a seat at the table. It’s a huge day for American ag,” Hora says.

Industry groups reacted in support of the Treasury’s proposed rule.

“Treasury’s proposal is a definite step in the right direction and will allow corn growers to transition into and supply the aviation sector,” Ohio farmer and National Corn Growers Association President Jed Bower says in a news release. “Being able to fuel commercial planes with fuel derived from corn would be important to the long-term economic viability of farming. After today we are one step closer to that possibility.”

The American Soybean Association (ASA) and the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) sent a joint release emphasizing how the 45Z rule should be in conjunction with a final Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) blend target announcement.

“Updating federal biofuel policies to prioritize soy-based fuels is a key ASA priority, and we applaud Treasury for this action which will help build domestic markets for U.S. soybeans,” says Scott Metzger, ASA president and Ohio farmer. “While Treasury’s work to update tax guidance is critical, ASA strongly urges the administration to immediately finalize RFS blending targets that complement the work of Treasury and Congress, by setting robust biofuel volumes and implementing new policies that will prioritize the utilization of U.S. soybeans in production.”

“These policies work hand in hand,” says Devin Mogler, NOPA president and CEO. “Treasury’s updated 45Z guidance is an important step forward, but it must be reinforced by finalizing the RFS as proposed. A strong RFS that includes the import RIN reduction mechanism is critical to putting American farmers and rural manufacturing first and providing the certainty our industry needs to continue to invest and grow so we can crush more soybeans right here in the U.S.”

What President Trump's Support Means for E15 and Corn Farmers

Thu, 29 Jan 2026 16:40:29 GMT

While speaking in Clive, Iowa, on Tuesday , the president said the passage of E15 will happen.

“I did. I promised E15 year-round if I got elected,” he said. “I want to let you know we’ll start right now.”

Trump said he is trusting House Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune to broker a deal in Congress.

“We’ve got it for farmers, consumers and refiners, including small and midsize refiners. In other words, to get E15 approved, and they’re working on it, they’re very close to getting it done. I just wanted to let you know that,” he added.

President Would Sign E15 Bill Immediately

USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said in a press release Tuesday evening that “yet again President Trump is honoring his commitment to America’s farmers and energy producers today in Iowa by announcing his support for the nationwide year-round sale of E15. As Congress continues to work through the details, the president has been clear — get a bill that allows nationwide E15 to his desk, and he will sign it to unleash American homegrown row crops for biofuels use like never before.”

Iowa Biofuels Groups Say President’s Support is Critical

Iowa biofuels groups, including the Iowa Renewable Fuels Association (IRFA), took out ads and wrote President Trump a letter prior to his visit to urge his support for E15. IRFA executive director Monte Shaw says the president directing Congress to get E15 done could be the key to finally getting it passed.

“He said he would sign it without delay. We think that was key. There are branches of government, you know the president is not Congress and Congress is not the president. But when he calls up the congressional leaders and says, ‘Hey, I want to get something done’, it’s usually gotten done and got to his desk,” Shaw says.

Legislative Path for E15

Shaw says the legislative path for E15 could be a delayed spending bill, or even a stand-alone bill, since the newly formed E15 council has been given a deadline of Feb. 15 to bring back a deal, with the hope of passage by Feb. 28.

“They did a rule that created the E15 council to keep working on it. This was before President Trump weighed in, and it gave them a date certain for a vote,” Shaw says.

Even if approved, Shaw admits the market impact won’t be felt overnight. But in five to seven years, E15 could mean another 2.4 billion bushels of corn usage annually, and the impact on corn prices could be substantial.

“Two billion bushels is not a small number, but I think people need to understand it won’t happen overnight. Even as penetration starts to grow, you start to grind a lot of corn very quickly,” he adds.

Iowa Farmers Speak To Trump

Kevin Ross, past National Corn Growers Association president, spoke directly with President Trump about E15 at the Machine Shed restaurant. He felt the president was listening.

“He’s said E15 more times in that setting than he has since probably back at the rally down at the [Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy] ethanol plant. I think he’s definitely focused on getting this across the finish line, doing what he can do and that’s really good to see,” Ross says.

He is excited about the possibility of E15 passage and what it could eventually mean for increased demand.

“I would assume the market’s going to take things positively, which we desperately need,” Ross says.

Trump Confirms Support for Year-Round E-15 Deal

Tue, 27 Jan 2026 23:18:12 GMT

President Donald Trump made a planned visit to Iowa — his first since July 2025 — on Tuesday, focusing on affordability, saying Iowa families are “winning” again under his leadership. Standing in front of a packed crowd in Clive, Iowa, with signs posted on the stage and scattered throughout the crowd that said “lower prices” and “bigger paychecks,” the visit unofficially kicked off the midterm elections where costs for consumers are expected to be one of the main political talking points.

While in Iowa, President Trump highlighted what the White House calls improving economic conditions for Iowa families, pointing to lower fuel prices, tax savings and agriculture-driven growth as signs the state is “winning again.” The President touted all the trade wins, including China buying soybeans and the EU agreeing to buy U.S. ethanol. He says by removing those trade barriers, exports are starting to flow to countries that had stopped buying U.S. ag goods before he took office.

But the reality is agriculture is at a crossroads, especially on the row crop side. Even with the recent trade deals, current economic pressures are creating a crisis in agriculture. Trump did briefly mention that crisis, blaming it on former President Joe Biden.

Trump Pushes Year-Round E15 During Iowa Visit

During his speech in Iowa, President Trump reaffirmed his campaign promise to support year-round E15, signaling a major win for corn growers and the ethanol industry.

“But I’m also working hard to expand your markets domestically,” Trump says. “In the campaign, I promised to support E15 all year round. I did. E15 all year round if I get elected, and I want to let you know, we’ll start right now.”

The statement sparked applause as Trump emphasized that efforts are underway in Congress to finalize approval, calling on House Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Leader John Thune to deliver a deal that benefits farmers, consumers, and refiners, including small and mid-sized operations.

“I’m trusting Speaker Mike Johnson, who’s great, and Leader John Thune, who’s great, to find a deal that works. They’re very close to getting it done,” he says. “And I will sign it without delay.”

The president framed year-round E15 as a key part of his broader strategy to expand markets for U.S. corn, support rural communities, and strengthen domestic energy production.

🚨 BREAKING: President Trump announces Congress is actively working on a deal to allow E15 ALL YEAR ROUND that works for farmers, consumers, & refiners.

"Congress is working on a deal, and when they send it to my desk — I will sign it without delay."pic.twitter.com/TOpo3VUDI4
— The White House (@WhiteHouse) January 27, 2026

Trump Highlights “Historic Turnaround” for U.S. Manufacturing, Touts Deere’s Stock Hitting All-Time High

During his Iowa visit, President Trump touted what he called a historic one-year economic turnaround, pointing to manufacturing growth and new investments across the country.

“And America is respected all over the world like they’ve never been respected,” Trump says. “I thought it would take us two years. This has been the most dramatic one-year turnaround of any country in history in terms of the speed.”

Trump spotlighted John Deere as an example of American manufacturing success. He welcomed the company’s chairman at the event and praised the expansion of production facilities, including what he called two massive new plants.

“You’re opening one in North Carolina, one someplace else, and then you’re expanding all over the place. You’re doing a great job,” he says. “I bought a lot of John Deere stuff. Great country, great company, it’s an honor to have you here.”

The president attributed much of the growth to tariffs and economic policies aimed at attracting investment back to the U.S.

“It is because of tariffs and it is also because of the fact that we had such a tremendous November 5th. That November 5 brought spirit back to our country,” Trump says.

Trump then said that proof in the growth is in the stock market’s performance, including Deere stock hitting an all-time high of 529.51 on January 21, 2026.

But with strains in the farm economy, farm equipment sales saw a steep decline in 2025. Deere and Company, which has a large footprint in the Quad Cities and Des Moines, has laid off over 3,500 employees since October 2023. That downsizing, which the company says is driven by decreasing demand and lower sales, has hit the company’s manufacturing facilities hard, including locations in Waterloo and Ankeny.

John Deere Expands U.S. Manufacturing with Two New Facilities

President Trump highlighted John Deere’s plans to open two major U.S. facilities, marking a significant boost for American manufacturing and rural jobs. The president saying Deere’s decision was due to tariffs.

After the president’s remarks, the company sent out a press release, with John Deere announcing a major expansion with two new U.S. facilities coming soon to the U.S .

Dere says it will build:

A state-of-the-art distribution center near Hebron, Indiana, and a $70 million excavator factory in Kernersville, North Carolina, both set to open within the next year.
The North Carolina factory will bring excavator production back from Japan to the U.S., making John Deere the top domestic producer of excavators.

Together, Deere says the projects are expected to create hundreds of new American jobs, strengthen local economies, and advance John Deere’s commitment to $20 billion in U.S. manufacturing investments over the next decade.

John Deere executives emphasized the expansion as a continuation of their mission to “build America”, enhance innovation, and support the nation’s agriculture, construction, and manufacturing sectors.

The Strong Push for E15 to Help Turn The Ag Economy Around

As corn growers pressed for year-round E15 ahead of the president’s visit, ethanol advocates say the issue is no longer about executive action. It’s about Congress finishing the job.

Emily Skor, CEO of Growth Energy, says the Trump administration has already taken every step available to it through regulatory action.

Leading into Tuesday’s talk, biofuels leaders pushed for the president to focus on E15, saying rural America’s financial stress is colliding with a narrow policy window to get things like E15 done, and that could generate more demand, quickly changing the outlook for corn and soybean growers.

“What we hear from the team around the president is he did what he could,” Skor told Chip Flory during “AgriTalk” on Tuesday. “He issued an executive order. EPA gave us the summer waivers for last summer. We all know that what we need right now is an act of Congress.”

Skor says the White House wants lawmakers to deliver a bill that can be signed into law and end the seasonal E15 debate for good.

“The conversation has to be ‘Congress, do your job,’” she says. “The White House wants to see Congress get something done so they can bring a bill to his desk, so he can sign it and we can be done with this once and for all.”

That urgency is being echoed across agriculture, she says.

“I’ve got CEOs of all kinds of agriculture trade groups calling me saying: ‘What can we do to be helpful? We’ve got to get this done,’” Skor says. “All of agriculture is supportive of this.”

Iowa’s Reality: Corn Prices Below Cost of Production

Ahead of Trump’s second visit to Iowa in less than a year, corn growers and renewable fuels advocates used the moment to renew pressure for nationwide, year-round access to E15. Corn groups say the timing is critical, as lawmakers continue to stall on permanent E15 access despite strong Midwestern support. To make the push even more visible, Iowa Corn and the Iowa Renewable Fuels Association (IRFA) released an open letter on Tuesday , thanking the president for his past support of E15 and urging him to help push the policy across the finish line in Congress, while also running a full-page ad in Tuesday’s “Des Moines Register”.

ICGA and @iowafuel today released an open letter thanking @POTUS for his constant support of nationwide, year-round #E15 and asking for his help to finally push E15 access through Congress @realDonaldTrump pic.twitter.com/cxACXijKMN
— Iowa Corn (@iowa_corn) January 26, 2026

According to the letter, corn growers across the country, and especially in Iowa, are struggling as prices remain well below the cost of production. That pressure, they say, is rippling through the broader state economy.

The groups cite recent data from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank, which ranked Iowa 50th among states for economic growth. They say expanding E15 is one of the fastest ways to reverse that trend.

“The best way to boost corn prices and create meaningful market demand is the immediate authorization of nationwide, year-round E15,” the letter states.

After Trump’s announcement on Tuesday, saying a deal is close, Iowa Corn Growers Association Vice President and farmer from Knoxville, Iowa, Steve Kuiper, expressed Iowa Corn’s appreciation, while highlighting what this could mean for farmers at a critical time.

“Iowa’s corn growers appreciate President Trump shining light on E15 and recognizing the weight this legislation holds to us as corn growers. Farmers are struggling with low commodity prices, high input costs and lack of markets. Passage of year-round E15 is the lifeline many of us need to be able to continue farming,” says Kuiper. “A recent study by Iowa Corn and the Iowa Renewable Fuels Association shared the positive effects year-round E15 would mean for corn growers. This is a goal we have been working towards for over a decade and getting this issue to the president’s desk and across the finish line is a win we all desperately need. The fact that the President sees this problem and promises a solution is coming is very encouraging and valued by us as farmers.”

Fun fact: today when @realDonaldTrump referenced supporting year-round E15 on the campaign trail, that started on January 19, 2016 at the Iowa Renewable Fuels Summit, where he was a speaker.

The next Summit is on February 5th and is FREE and open to the public. You might want to… https://t.co/g0G57UWrbF
— Iowa Renewable Fuels Association (@iowafuel) January 28, 2026

Leading up to today’s statements by Trump, both Iowa Corn and Iowa Renewable Fuels reminded the Trump administration that year-round E15 would immediately expand domestic demand for corn at a time when farmers are under intense financial pressure. Even with the latest round of financial aid through the Farmer Bridge Assistance Program payments, 92% of agricultural economists surveyed in Farm Journal’s December Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor said the row crop side of agriculture is in a recession. More than 90% said that will accelerate consolidation in agriculture — something Iowa agriculture is seeing firsthand.

Biofuels Seen as Economic Pressure Point and Opportunity

Kurt Kovarik, vice president of federal affairs at Clean Fuels Alliance America, appeared on “AgriTalk” before Trump’s talk on Tuesday. He says the group sent a letter to the president earlier this week urging the administration to focus on two immediate policy opportunities.

“We’re excited to see him head to Iowa,” Kovarik says. “We were briefed that the purpose of the conversation was to highlight economic opportunity, perhaps domestic energy dominance.”

Kovarik says Clean Fuels asked the administration to spotlight progress on renewable fuels, particularly finalizing renewable volume obligations under the Renewable Fuel Standard and issuing long-awaited guidance on the 45Z clean fuel production tax credit.

“I’m sure you’ve had a lot of conversations around E15 — that’s in the hands of Congress,” he says. “So, what we want to do is highlight for the president the EPA’s efforts to finalize the renewable volume obligations under the RFS as an opportunity to provide market certainty and growth for our industry, as well as finalizing the 45Z clean fuel production tax credit guidance, which we do not yet have.”

That certainty, Kovarik says, has been missing, and the consequences have been felt across rural America.

“Our industry had a really, really tough 2025,” he says. “Following a really great ’24, ’25 was really poor, as it was along the farm economy.”

He says the downturn wasn’t driven by demand alone, but by uncertainty around federal policy.

“It was a lack of profit, lack of margin, which meant reduced capacity,” Kovarik says. “In fact, we’ve had a lot of plants idling.”

After producing more than 5 billion gallons of clean fuels domestically in 2024, Kovarik says output dropped sharply in 2025. Plants across the industry operated at just 60% to 70% of capacity.

“In some cases that may be a plant dialing back to 80%,” he says. “In a lot of cases, particularly the smaller plants, maybe in Iowa, those that don’t produce their own feedstock came offline entirely.”

But it’s not just corn at a crossroads. He says that slowdown directly affects farm demand, especially for soybean oil.

“If our industry got those two things in the near term, we would flip around this industry nearly immediately,” Kovarik says. “Turn these plants back on, buy more soybean oil, add value to the soybean farmer and get this fuel to the consumer.”

Kovarik points to renewable volume obligations as a key pressure point. Under the Biden administration’s final three-year RFS rule, biomass-based diesel volumes for 2025 were set at 3.35 billion gallons — well below what the industry was capable of producing.

“We produced over 5 billion gallons in 2024,” he says. “So, that’s part of the reason our industry had a tough year.”

Looking ahead, Clean Fuels, petroleum refiners and agriculture groups asked EPA to raise 2026 volumes to 5.25 billion gallons. EPA’s proposal came in even higher.

“EPA actually proposed an estimate around 5.6 billion gallons,” Kovarik says. “They were even above ours.”

If final numbers land near that range, Kovarik says it would send a powerful market signal.

“Our feeling is if it comes down anywhere in the neighborhood between what we asked and what EPA proposed, it’s going to be a very, very strong market signal,” he says.

Timing matters, too. Kovarik says EPA has indicated the rule could be finalized soon.

“Our expectation is EPA is committed to have it done within the first quarter of 2026 — that means the end of March,” he says. “Hopefully early- to mid-March.”

As corn growers push for year-round E15 and broader biofuels support during Trump’s Iowa visit, Kovarik says optimism is returning, even after a difficult year.

“Although most folks are really feeling bad about how ’25 was, they’re also very optimistic about 2026,” he says. “Because of what we feel we’re on the cusp of.”

Corn Growers Disgusted as Congress Leaves E15 Out of Government Spending Bills

Just last week, E15 and corn groups were dealt a blow. That’s because year-round E15 was left out of the latest spending package , something corn and renewable fuels groups had been pushing to get included in the latest bill.

When asked how year-round E15 failed to advance earlier this year, Skor points to political realities inside the House.

“Parochial politics,” Skor said on AgriTalk Tuesday. “It’s incredibly frustrating.”

Despite broad ag support and mounting corn supplies, Skor says narrow vote margins and competing interests stalled progress.

“We have been a chorus saying, ‘We want markets, not handouts. We want markets,’” she says. “Look at how much corn we’ve grown in the U.S. We need to find markets.”

Skor says House leadership ultimately pulled the issue from budget negotiations due to concerns over securing enough votes, particularly from members tied to small refinery interests.

“He knew that he could not get the votes he needed to pass the budget,” she says. “So he said, ‘We’re going to table this. We’re going to create a council. We’re going to deal with this separately.’ And that’s what happened.”

Looking ahead, Skor says attaching year-round E15 to a must-pass spending bill remains possible, but unlikely in the near term.

“I’m never going to say never,” she says. “But I think the realistic, immediate path for us is trusting our champions.”

She points to Rep. Randy Feenstra of Iowa as a key leader on biofuels policy.

“He’s fantastic on our issues,” Skor says. “He proved to be very, very strong in advocating for the Clean Fuel Production Tax Credit, 45Z.”

Skor says biofuels groups are now unified behind a legislative compromise that protects liquid fuels while expanding growth opportunities for American ethanol.

“We have the vast majority of liquid fuels united behind a legislative proposal,” she says. “We’ve done a really good job coming up with a compromise that has a future for liquid fuels and growth opportunities for American biofuels.”

As farmers look for demand-side solutions amid tight margins and large corn supplies, Skor says the message to Washington during Trump’s Iowa visit is straightforward: permanent E15 isn’t a wish list item. It’s a market fix agriculture needs now.

In the letter Iowa Corn and IRFA sent this week, both also pointed to Congress’ decision to sidestep E15 language in recent spending bills, instead creating a task force to study the issue. That task force, which is co-chaired by Feenstra, is scheduled to take action by February 28.

“Without permanent access to this market, the long-term viability of our state’s largest economic driver is at serious risk,” the groups wrote. “Today, we are asking for your help to finally push E15 access through Congress.”

It’s that same sentiment that was relayed in a statement from National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) president Jed Bower last week, who said corn growers “were disgusted, disappointed and disillusioned” after spending years of calling on Congress to pass E15.

“I met with Speaker Johnson back in November. He said he was frustrated because DOGE had pulled this out last year. He said he would get something done, and here we are again,” said the Ohio farmer. “The same thing we get all the time. Let’s step on and push on the farmers because there’s not very many of them and we can get away with it.”

Small Refiners Still a Roadblock to Year-Round E15

Even with support from major oil groups, Skor says a small group of refiners continues to wield outsized influence in Washington — enough to stall year-round E15 despite broad backing from agriculture and much of the energy sector.

“Well, enough that they could hamstring the speaker and they could hold up the votes on the budget,” Skor says, responding to questions about whether small refiners still carry weight in Congress.

Skor says the current proposal on the table represents a significant compromise, one she believes should be moving now.

“Let’s get year-round E15. Let’s reform the small refinery program so fewer refiners get it and we have more clarity,” she says. “We are supportive of that.”

She argues the small refinery exemption program has been abused, pointing to a growing number of legal challenges.

“There are over 15 lawsuits that have been filed in 2025 because of these small refiners. They’re greedy,” Skor says. “They’re whiny. They claim and allege hardship, and then they get on investor calls and talk about all the money they made in the quarter. You can’t have it both ways.”

Skor says the ethanol industry and its allies are now focused on exposing what she calls that hypocrisy while maintaining pressure on lawmakers.

“We have a very strong coalition now that should win the day,” she says.

Corn Growers Argue E15 Is a ‘No-Cost’ Solution

Iowa Corn and IRFA frame E15 as both an economic and regulatory fix, calling the current restrictions outdated and unnecessary.

“Removing the outdated regulatory hurdle for E15 is exactly the type of government efficiency you’ve worked for,” the groups wrote, urging Trump to continue applying pressure as Congress debates the issue over the coming weeks.

They also emphasize permanent E15 access would come at no cost to taxpayers, while strengthening American energy dominance and providing a critical lifeline to corn producers.

“Permanent nationwide access to E15 is a common-sense, no-cost solution,” the letter sent earlier this week concludes. “Now is the time.”

With the task force deadline looming and the president back in Iowa, corn growers hope the renewed push will translate into action and finally deliver year-round E15 access they’ve been seeking for more than a decade.

Trump Defends Tariffs, Says Farmers Will Be “Biggest Beneficiary”

Ahead of his Iowa talk, President Trump made an appearance at the Machine Shed restaurant in Urbandale, where he had an exclusive interview with Fox News. During that interview, Trump strongly defended his use of tariffs, calling them “indispensable” to economic growth and long-term benefits for farmers.

“Tariffs have been indispensable toward success,” Trump says. “We’ve taken in $600 billion in tariffs.”

Trump says some of that revenue has already been directed back to agriculture, including the Farmer Bridge program payments, which are scheduled to be in farmers’ bank accounts by the end of February.

“I gave the farmers $12 billion last week and took them out of tariff money,” he says.

When asked about concerns from Iowa farmers who worry tariffs could hurt exports and commodity prices, Trump says the benefits will take time to materialize.

“It’s going to take a little while to kick in,” he says. “But I think the farmers are going to be the biggest beneficiary.”

Trump points to protections against foreign crops being sold into the U.S. at below-market prices.

“When you used to have people coming in and dumping their crops into the United States, you guys were hurt,” he says. “They’re not allowed to do that because we’re tariffing those crops.”

He also draws parallels to his first-term trade battles, particularly with China.

“The farmers stuck with me the first time, and I was right,” Trump says. “We gave them $28 billion then. Now we gave them $12 billion, sort of a minimal payment.”

While acknowledging legal challenges could arise as the Trump administration awaits the Supreme Court’s ruling, Trump still signaled tariffs, or similar tools, will remain part of his strategy.

“If the Supreme Court strikes down the tariffs, we will find something — some other way of doing a similar thing,” he says. “But it’ll be more inconvenient.”

As Trump delivers his message in Iowa, tariffs remain a flashpoint for rural America, balancing promises of long-term protection with near-term uncertainty for farmers navigating tight margins and volatile markets.

Economists Forecast Farm Economy to Stabilize, But High Costs and Policy Uncertainty Block a 2026 Rebound

Wed, 07 Jan 2026 18:26:39 GMT

As 2026 ushers in a fresh start, agricultural economists say the U.S. farm economy has stopped sliding, but it’s far from fully healed.

The December Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor shows month-to-month sentiment is improving, but deep structural strain remains — especially in row crops. Meanwhile, livestock markets continue to provide strength. Crop producers face another year of tight margins driven by high input costs, weak prices and unresolved trade and policy uncertainty.

“There’s cautious optimism,” the economists say, “but very little belief that 2026 will bring a meaningful rebound without cost relief or stronger demand.”

Those themes mirror the perspective of Seth Meyer, former USDA chief economist and now director of the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at the University of Missouri. In a recent interview, Meyer connected the dots between narrow margins, policy responses and what might actually move the dial for U.S. agriculture heading into 2026.

Stabilizing, Not Recovering

December Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lori Hayes )

Economists see the ag economy holding its ground — but not gaining strength.

54% say the ag economy is somewhat better than one month ago.
Compared with a year ago:
- 42% say conditions are worse
- 33% say they are better
Looking ahead 12 months:
- 46% expect conditions unchanged
- 38% expect improvement
- 15% expect conditions to worsen

“Momentum has improved since mid-2025,” Meyer notes, “but tight margins have been with us for a long time. Turning that around requires demand growth, not just price stabilization.

Farm Journal’s December Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lori Hayes )

Grant Gardner, assistant Extension professor at the University of Kentucky, tells AgriTalk’s Chip Flory: “I think as we move into kind of this next marketing year, you’re looking at what looks like a breakeven and not a loss, but breakeven still doesn’t look great after three years of breakeven or losses.”

He says even with the $11 billion in Farmer Bridge Program payments , it won’t drastically change the outlook for the farm economy.

“Purdue had a good survey about a month ago, where they looked at what were these payments going to go to, and research would show that a lot of these payments go into long-term assets, and so land tractors, but I think over 60% of producers right now are in such a tight cash crunch that you’re going to see a lot of these payments go into that short-term debt,” Gardner says.

Consolidation a Growing Threat

Economists are nearly unanimous that the crop sector remains under extreme financial stress. 83 percent say row crops are currently in a recession. That isn’t about production declines — acres and yields haven’t collapsed — but about persistently weak profitability.

“Negative returns for at least the third consecutive year across nearly all row crops,” one economist wrote in the survey.

Another said: “Margins remain below full costs of production for many producers.”

Farm Journal’s December Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lori Hayes)

Meyer traces that back to how abruptly agriculture moved from the high prices of 2021 and 2022 into today’s tighter margins.

“We moved very quickly from a very high price environment and good profitability in 2022 to very tight margins,” he says. “That usually happens coming off price peaks, but this time it happened really rapidly.”

A minority of survey respondents argued farms are “treading water,” supported by strong land values and government aid rather than eroding further, which Meyer acknowledged aligns with how risk and safety nets have interacted this year.

But when you look at how the current stress in the farm economy could impact consolidation, the ag economists say it’s the economic pressure combined with demographic trends causing the acceleration. In fact, 92% of them say consolidation is underway and unavoidable.

“Markets go to the lowest-cost producers,” one economist wrote. “That sorting is consolidation on the production side.”

Aging producers exiting and rent-heavy operations under pressure only add fuel to that trend, with one economist saying: “Consolidation happens because producers have to exit, not because they want to.

What’s Driving the Farm Economy Right Now

When economists were asked to identify the two most important factors shaping agriculture’s economic health today, their responses clustered around a familiar, but increasingly sharp, divide: strong demand in livestock and the protein sector versus persistent oversupply and cost pressure in crops, all layered with trade and policy uncertainty.

Several economists pointed to continued strength in beef demand, both domestically and through export channels, as a key stabilizing force. While the dairy sector is an area that shows signs of weakness for 2026.

“Livestock revenues are a bright spot,” one respondent noted, underscoring why the livestock sector continues to outperform crops financially.

Looking to 2026, economists overwhelmingly point to input costs, not interest rates, as the biggest barrier to profitability. Nearly 70% cited input prices as the largest challenge as well, far ahead of trade concerns or capital availability.

Farm Journal’s December Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lori Hayes )

“We have too much supply and not enough demand for row crops,” one economist wrote.

Another said: “Input costs are still too high.”

Trade remains a central wild card, especially relationships with China and uncertainty around global supply. Several respondents cited trade disputes and agreements as critical factors, along with questions about the size of South American crops and how that could shape global competition in the months ahead.

Policy uncertainty was also featured prominently, with economists pointing to domestic biofuels policy, government payments and broader market signals as factors influencing both short-term cash flow and longer-term demand growth.

Overall, economists say the ag economy is being pulled in opposite directions: strong livestock demand providing support, while crops struggle under high costs, oversupply and unresolved trade and policy questions — a dynamic that helps explain why the broader farm economy feels stable, but far from healthy, as 2026 approaches.

Livestock: A Continued Bright Spot

Livestock continues to stand out as the most financially healthy segment of the ag economy. Every economist surveyed rated beef as above average or excellent, supported by strong domestic demand and tight supplies. Dairy and pork were viewed as stable to moderately strong.

That success creates a stark contrast with row crops, where corn and cotton were cited by 38% each as the commodities most at risk financially in 2026.

What Could Move Crop Prices in the Next Six Months

Looking ahead to the first half of 2026, economists say crop prices will hinge less on domestic fundamentals and more on global supply, trade flows and policy clarity.

Across responses, South America emerged as the dominant influence, with economists repeatedly citing Brazilian weather, the size of the South American harvest and how those supplies compete with U.S. exports. Several noted that clarity around South American production will be critical in setting price direction for corn, soybeans and wheat.

Trade, particularly with China, remains another key swing factor. Economists emphasized not just the announcement of trade agreements, but whether purchases translate into actual shipments.

“China purchases of U.S. crops, but also if and when actual shipments occur,” one respondent noted, adding that details within any trade deal, including purchase commitments, will matter just as much as headlines.

Domestic factors still play a role, but economists see them as secondary in the near term. Input prices, early U.S. planting conditions and assumptions about 2026 acreage were all cited as important — especially as markets begin to trade expectations for next year’s crop mix.

Policy uncertainty also hangs over the outlook. Economists pointed to ongoing questions around trade policy, biofuels policy and broader economic conditions as variables that could amplify or mute price moves.

Economists say crop prices over the next six months are likely to be driven by how global supply unfolds, whether export demand materializes and how quickly policy uncertainty is resolved, rather than by any single domestic production shock.

Biofuels Policy: A Potential Turning Point?

One of the clearest themes Meyer highlights as a possible game changer for demand, and ultimately prices, is biofuels policy.

For economists, policy levers like year-round E15, Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) volumes, 45Z investment tax credits and how small refinery exemptions are handled could meaningfully influence demand for corn and soybeans in 2026 and beyond.

“It’s one of the places where policymakers actually have levers to help with tight margins in the row crop sector,” Meyer says.

He emphasizes that final rules on RFS volumes and how biobased credits are implemented could impact feedstock demand.

“For the next couple of crop seasons, RVO (Renewable Volume Obligations) and how EPA reallocates small refinery exemptions are big factors,” Meyer says. “Should we raise the RVO to soak up that pool like a sponge? Should imported feedstocks get full 45Z credit? Those decisions could move demand.”

On year-round E15, a long-sought policy priority for corn growers, Meyer is cautiously optimistic.

“I do think it matters,” he says. “Maybe it’s not a huge swing this year, but offering certainty and building demand over multiple seasons is supportive. Other countries like Brazil are ramping up their biofuels production too, so this isn’t happening in a vacuum.”

Policy Uncertainty Still Looms

Economists also flagged top priorities for 2026 policy action:

Year-round E15 (row crops)
Trade policy clarity (row crops & livestock)
Labor reform and regulatory issues (livestock)

They also highlighted under-covered risks, which include pressure on land rents and values, labor shortages, biofuels policy details (such as 45Z credits) and slower population growth affecting long-term demand.

What Could Move Livestock and Dairy Prices in the Next Six Months

When economists look ahead to livestock and dairy markets in early 2026, they see a mix of strong demand signals, supply-side risks and policy uncertainty shaping price direction.

Consumer demand remains the cornerstone of the outlook, particularly for beef. Several economists pointed to continued buying interest from U.S. consumers as the primary support for cattle prices, even as affordability pressures rise. At the same time, some warned that a more “K-shaped” economy could begin to shift demand, pulling some consumers away from beef and toward pork.

Supply dynamics and herd trends are another major focus. Economists cited herd size, potential herd expansion and the availability of feeder cattle as critical variables. The expected resumption of feeder cattle imports from Mexico was highlighted as a key factor that could influence cattle supplies and pricing, depending on timing and volume.

Animal health risks also remain on the radar. Issues such as avian influenza, screwworm and other disease threats were mentioned as potential disruptors that could quickly alter supply conditions in both livestock and dairy markets.

Policy and trade uncertainty continues to hover over the sector. Economists pointed to ongoing questions around tariffs, restrictions on live animal trade with Mexico and the next steps under the USMCA as factors that could impact both imports and exports. Political uncertainty more broadly was also cited as a potential source of market volatility.

For dairy, economists noted that beef-on-dairy dynamics are likely to continue weighing on milk prices by increasing beef supplies while complicating dairy herd decisions.

Taken together, economists say livestock and dairy prices over the next six months will be driven by a delicate balance between strong consumer demand, evolving supply conditions and unresolved trade and policy questions, with any shift in one of those areas capable of moving markets quickly.

Acreage Expectations: Stress, Not Shock

Despite margin pressure, economists do not expect dramatic acreage pullbacks in 2026. Most expect:

Corn: 93 to 95 million acres
Soybeans: 84 to 86 million acres
Wheat: 44 to 45 million acres
Cotton: 9 to 10 million acres

Corn acreage expectations have edged lower since November, as economists backed away from another year above 95 million acres. At the same time, soybean acreage expectations have firmed, with 75% now targeting 84 to 86 million acres, suggesting stronger relative economics for beans.

“Export demand has helped keep corn acres supported,” Meyer says. “The question is whether that demand holds and whether policy supports it.”

As for acreage, the major impact on prices would be a large acreage reduction, which is unlikely.

“That’s what it comes down to, too. What I’ve been thinking about is what else can you use land for? And you’ve got the pushback on urban sprawl, you’ve got pushback on other uses for ag land. But right now, the simple fact is we’ve got way too much production. Without that slowing, or a drastic increase in demand, I don’t see prices improving to very lucrative levels,” Gardner says.

Overall, The Ag Economy Is a Grind, Not a Rebound

When you look at all the results from the December Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor, economists paint a picture of an industry that has stopped getting worse, but has not yet found a path to durable profitability.

Crops remain mired in margin compression; livestock continues to outperform but remains sensitive to policy decisions. Government aid is buying time but not addressing structural challenges, but it’s policy outcomes, especially around biofuels, trade and E15, that could be decisive in shaping 2026 outcomes.

For now, the farm economy has found a floor. The tougher question, economists say, is whether policy can help lift it, or if it will continue to grind forward without a genuine rebound.

Related News: As Screwworm Inches Closer, When Could the U.S. Reopen the Southern Border to Cattle Imports?

Hope on the Horizon: Farmers Anticipate 'Bridge Payment' Announcement

Tue, 02 Dec 2025 21:31:03 GMT

Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said on Tuesday that the Trump administration will announce a “bridge payment” for farmers next week that will provide short-term relief while longer trade and aid packages are finalized. The dollar amount has not been disclosed, though some groups have estimated the total amount will be in the neighborhood of $12 billion.

While many growers acknowledge the necessity of such ad-hoc payments amid mounting financial challenges, other farmers question whether the stopgap measures offer real solutions. Northeast Iowa farmer Tim Burrack says he is in both camps regarding the payments.

“Yeah, there’s people that can really use them. Everyone can use them,” says Burrack. “Our cost structure is terrible – our costs versus our returns. But in the big picture, I think these ad-hoc payments just kind of pacify us. We’re not getting real solutions.”

Farmers Want Market Opportunities
Burrack ticks off a short list of actions he believes the Trump administration needs to take that can help corn and soybean farmers. Chief among them, more export market opportunities and reduced trade barriers.

“We’re not getting our biofuel solutions,” Burrack adds. “We’re not getting E15, and now it looks like we still may allow imported feedstocks from China.”

Despite time to do so, Congress has not voted on legislation that would allow consumers across the country to access E15 year-round, according to Jed Bower, Ohio farmer and National Corn Growers Association president.

Northeast Kansas farmer Ken McCauley shares Bower’s sentiment. “President Trump has to come through on this. E15 is a no-lose deal,” says McCauley.

Like Burrack, McCauley favors the use of ad hoc payments to farmers in the short-term. “These payments do help, but I think they give a poor signal to input suppliers that we can keep this up, that everything’s going to work out. But it might not work out,” he says. “We’re talking some high numbers [of farmers at risk]. It’s not like the ‘80s, but it could get there pretty quick.”

Burrack says he is more concerned about the long-term future for American farmers and consumers, as well.

“My bigger concern is the federal government and the debt,” he says. “The issue is the American people are not prepared for the pain that’s coming because of the deficits. Either we’re going to be paying a lot more taxes, or people are going to have a lot less services, and no one wants to do either one. I don’t know how that’s going to turn out, but that’s the big concern I have.”

For more insights from Burrack and McCauley, listen to their discussion on AgriTalk with Host Chip Flory:

Is EPA Reversing Course on RFS Proposal? Agency Pushes Back on Rumors as Ag Sector Awaits Final Rule

Fri, 21 Nov 2025 20:07:50 GMT

The EPA says it is “working expeditiously” to finalize Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) volumes after proposing record-high blending requirements for biomass-based diesel earlier this year — levels that could deliver a major boost in domestic soybean demand. But with rumors swirling about potential delays or softened requirements, agriculture stakeholders are asking: Is EPA reversing course?

In an exclusive interview with U.S. Farm Report, EPA deputy administrator David Fotouhi says the agency is committed to getting the RFS rule “exactly right,” and strongly disputes reports suggesting the administration may scale back or delay the proposed increases.

EPA Still Won’t Commit to a Date, But Says Final RFS Rule Is “On Track”

While agriculture groups continue pressing for clarity on when EPA will finalize its Renewable Fuel Standard volumes orignally proposed in June , the agency maintains that the process remains on schedule — though it’s still without a specific public release date.

The deputy administrator emphasizes the RFS rulemaking has been a top priority since the new EPA leadership took office in January.

“We understand how important it is to get this exactly right,” he says. “From day one, administrator Zeldon has been laser focused on ensuring that the RFS strikes the right balance and carries out our statutory obligation to set volumes, considering the factors that are in the Clean Air Act.”

He notes the original proposal, which was unveiled in January, and the June update were shaped under difficult circumstances.

“When we came to the agency here in January, we had an unprecedented backlog of small refinery exemptions that the Biden administration had failed to consider,” he explains. “We also had a Renewable Fuel Standard program that was behind on setting volumes.”

To address that, EPA not only advanced its main proposal but also issued a supplemental notice proposing how to reallocate volumes connected to those outstanding small refinery exemption decisions.

“We’ve invested a lot of time and effort in the proposal that you just described, as well as the supplemental notice on reallocation of those SRE-exempted volumes,” he says. “That comment period just recently closed, and we’re looking at all the comments we received on the initial proposal from the summer, as well as on the supplemental notice that we just issued.”

(EPA)

The comments are now being reviewed collectively as EPA weighs what the final RVOs should look like.

“We’re taking all of that on board and considering that when deciding how to set the final RVOs,” he continues. “And we are working expeditiously to do that because we know farmers across the country and all the other stakeholders implicated by this program need certainty.”

Pressed on whether the final rule could realistically land this winter or slip into spring, he again declined to give a specific timeframe but reiterated the agency’s urgency.

“What I can say is that we’re working expeditiously to provide that level of certainty,” he says. “We know that we need to set these volumes so that stakeholders can adjust and act accordingly and start meeting the standards. We are working as quickly as we can to take final action on that proposal.”

EPA Slams Reuters Report on Imported Biofuel Incentives

EPA’s frustration with outside reporting was on full display when asked about a Reuters article suggesting the administration is considering delaying proposed cuts to incentives for imported biofuels — a key piece of EPA’s June proposal that was intended to prioritize domestic production. Reuters reported refiners had pushed the administration to dial back or postpone the shift, prompting widespread speculation that EPA might be reversing course.

The deputy administrator forcefully rejects that narrative.

“What I can say now is that there are a lot of rumors and speculation about what we might or might not do,” he says. “We can’t prejudge the outcome of where we’re going. We’re still looking at all of the public comments.”

He made it clear the agency views the Reuters report as misleading and potentially harmful to agricultural markets.

“It’s very frustrating, frankly, when a news agency like Reuters comes out and spreads rumors and innuendo about where we may or may not be going,” he says. “They do it in a way that actually moves markets and causes commodity prices to be affected before we’ve even made a decision.”

The deputy administrator stressed the imported biofuel incentive changes laid out in June remain on the table — and nothing has been rolled back behind the scenes.

“As you said, it was an integral part of our proposal,” he notes. “We’ve received a lot of public feedback on it that we are reviewing from stakeholders across the board, and we’ve made no final decisions yet on that issue.”

He went even further, directly questioning the appropriateness of the Reuters reporting.

“It is irresponsible for Reuters to be speculating about that at this time,” he says. “We are taking this seriously, we are reviewing the comments, and we will make a decision based on the law and the record — not based on rumor.”

The agency’s direct pushback underscores the sensitivity surrounding EPA’s final RVO decision. Every signal about imported biofuels, biomass-based diesel volumes or domestic versus foreign supply carries major implications for commodity markets, soybean crush demand and the renewable fuel industry.

EPA’s message to farmers: Ignore the rumors, wait for the rule and understand that:

No decisions have been finalized
Public comments are still being reviewed
Reports of policy shifts are premature
Certainty for farmers is a guiding priority

More Background on the RFS Proposal

As Farm Journal originally reported in June , EPA’s proposed rule is a potential game changer for farmers. The proposal would increase biomass-based diesel requirements, from 3.35 billion gallons in 2025 to 5.61 billion gallons in 2026, supporting American row-crop growers in the process.

The proposal includes at least three key regulatory shifts that would accompany the volume increases:

Heightened quotas for cellulosic biofuel, biomass-based diesel (BBD) and advanced biofuels.
Prioritization of soybean oil and ethanol produced in the U.S. Imported biofuels would earn just 50% of the Renewable Identification Number (RIN) value compared to U.S.-based fuels.
Removal of renewable electricity (eRINs) as a qualifying fuel, reinforcing liquid biofuels as the RFS centerpiece.

EPA Signals a Broader Deregulatory Strategy

Beyond the RFS, the agency is emphasizing cost-cutting and regulatory relief as core priorities — offering a stark contrast to Biden-era policy approaches.

In August, EPA finalized its decision not to impose new wastewater discharge rules on meat and poultry processors, reversing a previous proposal the deputy administrator says would have cost facilities “millions, if not tens of millions of dollars” with limited environmental benefit.

He argues the change is part of a coordinated administration-wide effort to reduce the cost of living, noting that avoiding new regulatory burdens could help keep grocery prices lower.

Earlier this year, EPA also announced what it called the largest deregulatory action in agency history, spanning 31 changes intended to reduce energy and regulatory costs for farmers, ranchers, and manufacturers.

“One of our biggest focuses is reducing the cost of energy,” he says. “We’re working across agencies — USDA, DOE, Interior — to identify ways to lower input costs for producers. That’s a priority for the president.”

Breeding for New Markets: How University of Minnesota is Working to Boost the Oil Content in Soybeans

Thu, 23 Oct 2025 13:37:13 GMT

At the University of Minnesota, soybean breeders are looking far beyond the next harvest; they’re developing varieties that can withstand pests, push yields higher and meet new demands from renewable fuels. That also means breeding soybeans to contain higher oil content that traditional varieties today, an innovation that could cater to the possible new demand.

Aaron Lorenz, a professor of agronomy and plant genetics, has spent the past decade leading efforts to ensure farmers have tools that work today and decades down the road. Standing in a research plot near St. Paul, he gestures toward rows of soybeans that tell the story of decades of progress.

“In the front we have varieties released in the 1940s and 1950s,” Lorenz explains. “You can see that they’re falling down. They don’t have very many pods on them. They’re very tall and lanky — not very good agronomically.”

Those early varieties might have been cutting-edge at the time, but they pale in comparison to today’s resilient, high-yielding soybeans.

“On average, breeders have increased yield by about a half a bushel per year,” Lorenz says. “Right now, the varieties farmers are growing yield about two and a half times more than what their predecessors grew back in the 1940s and 1950s. On-farm yield has increased two-and-a-half to three times — and a big chunk of that has been due to breeding better varieties. It’s been a long, continual investment. Incremental, but over time it adds up to something much better.”

Battling a Hidden Threat: Soybean Cyst Nematode

Yield isn’t the only focus. Lorenz and his team are also taking on one of the most persistent, and invisible, enemies of soybean farmers: the soybean cyst nematode (SCN).

“Soybean cyst nematode is No. 1,” Lorenz says. “The main concern is that the current resistance most Minnesota farmers use comes from one single source that researchers discovered 40 or 50 years ago. It’s been used so long and so often that there’s now resistance breakdown occurring on the landscape. The nematodes are evolving to overcome our current source of resistance.”

That means farmers who believe they’re protected might not actually be, and once they discover thee issue, it’s often too late.

“A farmer may plant a resistant variety, thinking they have protection,” Lorenz explains, “but if the nematode population in their field has changed and overcome that resistance, they may be losing yield and not even know it. That’s why it’s good to get a soil test and rotate your sources of resistance.”

Lorenz says his breeding program is working to stay ahead of that curve, developing new varieties before the old ones lose their power.

“We’re working with projects with Minnesota Soybean and the United Soybean Board,” he says. “We’re not just discovering new sources of resistance; we’re breeding with different ones. We know which genes have good resistance for new SCN populations, and we’re getting those into elite varieties that farmers may want to grow.”

Some of those experimental lines are already showing promise.

“We’ve had some varieties that have done quite well,” Lorenz says. “They’re not quite ready for farmers to use right now, but we’re hopeful. Getting them into better varieties will eventually give us strong performers in the future.”

Breeding for New Markets: Renewable Diesel and High-Oil Soybeans

Beyond yield and pest resistance, Lorenz’s team is also thinking about how soybeans will fit into the future of energy. With renewable diesel demand growing, farmers are being asked to produce crops with higher oil content.

“We understand there’s a lot of potential future demand for renewable diesel, which is going to require a lot more oil,” Lorenz says. “We’d like to increase the oil content in soybeans, from around 22% to maybe closer to 30%, to make it a higher-oil crop and more valuable from that standpoint.”

That work started when the Minnesota Soybean Growers Association approached the university with a challenge: Breed soybeans that can meet the renewable fuel industry’s needs.

“We work very closely with those grower groups to identify target traits we should be working on,” Lorenz explains. “They have their ears closer to the ground. They can see what the industry needs better than we can and help direct our research. It’s been a very fruitful collaboration.”

He says it’s also possible soybeans looks more like canola, as a way to capture more of the oil content from every plant. But that research is just a hint of what may be to come.

Looking Ahead

From fields filled with the tall, spindly soybeans of the 1940s to test plots growing varieties rich in oil and nematode resistance, the University of Minnesota’s breeding program reflects decades of continuous innovation.

Each seed planted represents a future crop, and a future challenge, already being met by researchers like Lorenz and his team.

“As long as we continue the incremental progress of selecting and developing better varieties,” Lorenz says, “over the long term we’ll always have something that’s a lot better.”

Can Biofuels Make Up for Lost China Soybean Export Demand?

Mon, 08 Sep 2025 18:21:07 GMT

China has still not bought one bushel of new crop soybean exports from the U.S. and they may not with U.S. product facing up to a 23% tariff.

Last year at this time China had bought 250 million bu. of U.S. soybeans but this year is buying from South America and without a China deal the U.S. could miss its prime export window which will further pressure soybean prices.

Can BioFuels Make Up for Lost China Export Business?

Due to the expected increase in demand for biofuels like renewable diesel and SAF the soybean processing industry was planning a 30% increase in crush capacity with the use of soybean oil as a feedstock.

With recent biofuels policy wins that finally looks more promising but experts says the biofuels ramp up won’t come soon enough to make up for lost exports to China.

Trifecta of Biofuels Policy Wins

The U.S. biofuels industry has had a trifecta of policy wins the last few months including EPA’s higher than expected proposed blending mandates for biomass based diesel according to Dr. Scott Irwin, Agricultural Economist, University of Illinois.

He says, “It started with the June Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOS’s) which were very healthy and included a what is called a half RIN proposal for imported biofuels or domestically produced biofuels made with imported feed stocks.”

A second positive was, as part of the One Big Beautiful Bill, the industry saw some much needed changes to the 45 tax credit program.

Steve Censky, Chief Executive Officer, American Soybean Association says the bill delivered many of the components they had asked for.

“Number one was to extend it because it was going to be expiring in 2028. And so it’s been extended for a couple of years. And then second thing is that we push to make the 45Z tax credit only available to fuels made with U.S. feed stocks,” he ssays.

Irwin says the third part of the hat trick was EPA’s decision on the backlog of Small Refinery Exemptions.

Irwin says, “We got an SRE refinery exemption u decision uh that stretches back going all the way back to 2016 that uh I believe is quite favorable as well.”

Biofuels Industry Awaiting Guidance on RVOs and 45Z

However, the biofuels industry has been waiting nearly two years for Treasury guidance on 45Z to get certainty for investment.

Irwin says, “We still have to wait to see what that guidance looks like. But the important point is that historically historically when those tax credits are awarded either to the uh blender or the producer they bid most of that into their feed stock prices.”

Censky says they also need finalized RVO levels from EPA, which are expected by October 31.

Censky, “f we can finalize the volumes that have been proposed by the EPA, and they propose to expand biomass-based diesel volumes by 67% from 2025 levels. So really historic announcements about the volumes. That really gives potential here for the biomass-based diesel industry.”

But that demand won’t kick in until January of 2026, so can biofuels make up for the loss of China?

Biofuels Ramp Up Too Late to Offset Lost China Exports

Irwin says, “The big thing of course is no matter how bullish you want to get on biofuels it doesn’t replace China on the soybean export side.”

Censky says that’s because while the U.S. soybean industry diversified its export portfolio since the 2018 trade war with China, it still buys over 25% of the soybean crop annually.

“I mean they import more soybeans than the rest of the world combined and so you can’t make up the loss of the China market by gaining a little bit here or there,” he explains.

And with up to 23% tariffs on U.S. soybeans, Censky says China is out of the new crop export market.

“So you’re talking 200 to 400 million bushels of soybeans that they would have purchased already that would be on the books and right now we have zero and what we’re hearing is that they’ve taken care of their needs for October, they’re taking care of their needs for November.” he says.

And without a deal, China could stay out of the U.S. export arena waiting for Brazil’s new crop soybeans to come to market.

EPA Decision on Small Refinery Exemptions Good News For Biofuels

Mon, 25 Aug 2025 18:19:15 GMT

The Environmental Protection Agency had a big announcement on Small Refinery Exemptions (SREs) on Friday.

The agency is acting on a backlog of more than 175-petitions from 38-small refineries dating all the way back to 2016.

EPA officials says the goal is to get the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) program back on track but biofuels industry officials are unclear about how that will work.

SRE Decision a Mixed Bag

EPA granted full SREs on 63 petitions to the Renewable Fuel Standard, and partial exemptions on 77. The agency also denied 28 petitions and deemed 7 ineligible.

Paul Winters, Director of Public Affairs, Clean Fuels Alliance America says the result was a good news, bad news story for the industry.

“The exemptions apply to more than 7 billion RIN gallons from prior years. However, EPA is indicating that it’s only returning RINs for 2023 and 2024, which is about 1 .4 billion RINs. Those RINs would still be valid to meet the 2024 RFS volume requirements.”

Will the 2023 to 2025 SREs be Reallocated?

The biofuels industry exoects multiple refiners to object to the decision. So the question remains: how or if the SREs from 2023 to 25 will be reallocated.

Winters says, “1.4 billion RINs returned to the market is a substantial number, especially for 2024 and 2025 where the Biden administration set volumes for biomass based diesel way below where they should have.”

EPA Proposes New Formula for Reallocating SREs

In addition, EPA has proposed a new formula to reallocate gallons exempted from 2023 and later years.

This means EPA still has 57 total exemption requests pending that will be used in finalizing blending levels for 2026 and 2027.

“So what EPA has indicated is that they are going to propose a rule, a supplement to the 2026 and 2027 volumes and they will reallocate the these small refinery exemptions to other refiners,” he says.

So, while the administration is trying to support the biofuels industry, it’s still negative according to Winters.

“They exempted far more small refineries than anyone thought would have,” he explains.

Timeline Unclear

Winters says EPA will send a proposal to the White House next week for a 30 day review, followed by a comment period and hearing on the new proposal.

Eventually the plan is to add this proposal to, for the new framework or small refinery exemption decisions and add it to the 2026 and 2027 RFS rule.

Winters says CFAA will work with EPA on the re-allocations but his will delay the final 2027 RFS rule past the November 1 deadline — adding more uncertainty.

5 Things Farmers Should Know Now 45Z Is A Real Thing

Mon, 07 Jul 2025 22:09:52 GMT

The One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) delivered additional surety for the 45Z biofuel blender tax credit.

After almost three years of talking about what could be spelled out by 45Z, Mitchell Hora says farmers can now get “locked in” to capitalize on the program.

“This 45z deal could be absolutely game changing for my family’s farm, and I think it will be game changing for other family farmers across the country,” Hora says. “It’s going to have a ripple effect that could change global agriculture. So that’s why I’m just so adamant that we have got to get this right, and we’ve got to hit the ground running.”

Hora, an Iowa farmer and founder of Continuum Ag, says there are five things every farmer should know about what the OBBB has laid out. He also says there are unanswered questions.

1. It’s happening.

“They [lawmakers] cut almost all of the other green funding programs within the Inflation Reduction Act. They cut a bunch of that old stuff, but they kept the 45Z program,” Hora says. “It’s alive, it’s locked in, it’s going to happen.”

What sets 45Z apart from previous biofuels tax provisions is how it measures the grain—the program uses a scorecard to assess every bushel (not acre) with a carbon intensity (CI). Any score under 50 points receives a tax credit to the biofuels producer.

“This program shows how you can score a farmer’s carbon footprint, how you can audit it, verify it, track it through the supply chain, and how to monetize it,” Hora says.

2. OBBB gave 45Z an extension

The 45Z program now has additional momentum behind it as the OBBB outlined an extension now into 2029.

“Now biofuels producers have more time to really capitalize on this,” Hora says.

The program is currently active for the 2025 tax year. This means farmers could be selling 2024 grain into the 2025 biofuels production year. And the program is available through 2029.

3. Only North American feedstocks are eligible.

Imported used cooking oil has become a focus for may who have critiqued previous blend credits as feedstocks from other countries were not limited.

Now, only feedstocks from North American sources can be used as part of this program. This includes corn, soybeans, used cooking oil, beef tallow, and canola.

“Without foreign feedstocks being included this drives more demand and more value for U.S. farmers,” Hora says.

4. Current language ignores indirect land use change.

“This single thing lowers everyone’s CI score across the board. It definitely helps corn and corn based ethanol and the soybean side as well,” Hora says.

5. Tax credits are transferrable.

Biofuels producers can take their tax credits and sell them to another buyer if they aren’t going to use them themselves.

Additionally, this makes it easier for farmer-owned co-op ethanol plants to process their taxes.

Additional considerations and unanswered questions.

Farmer data is key to unlock the potential.

“The overall 45Z impact is ag data is extremely valuable. It’s setting a precedent as to the value for data,” Hora says. “Iin order for the ethanol plant to generate 45Z credit using your low carbon farming practices, they have to prove it in an audit, and likely an audit at every point of aggregation, so that farmer data is really the key to unlock value here.”

As for the monetary value of the CI score, Hora says after talking to hundreds of ethanol plants, the range of sharing the value of the credit varies between 30% to 50% of the value.

This 45Z program update does effect sustainable aviation fuel—particularly alcohol to jet.

“Under the current version of 45z the alcohol to jet pathway not going to happen at any type of real pace, not at any type of accelerated rate of innovation. The math just doesn’t work out,” Hora says. “You’d be much better off under the current 45Z rules to just sell it as ethanol.”

The Final IRS Guidance Matters

Forthcoming final rules from the IRS will set which of the two calculators will be used: GREET FD-CIC or USDA FD-CIC

Also, the IRS sets if the credits will be tracked with mass balance or book and claim method.

“Here’s the takeaway for farmers. You can continue to wait. But you’re money ahead to get your data organized,” he says.

The money is flowing—yet.

“There may be small amounts, pennies on the dollar to get things started and get farmers enrolled. This didn’t unlock the flood gates. But it locked it in. It’s here to stay. They are going to get these rules out. We’ve got to get some movement on the work ahead to get the data and the people ready,” Hora says.

You may want to pump the brakes on signing up for a new private carbon program, Hora says. Because all previous guidance has not allowed for signing up an acre for one program and selling a bushel under 45Z from the same land.

There will be ripple effects (and opportunities) for animal agriculture.

Hora says, “If you are in animal ag, talk to people in your supply chain. And talk about how to capitalize on this precedent setting program.”

Breaking Down the Biggest Differences in the Big Beautiful Bill Proposals and Potential Impact on Agriculture

Fri, 20 Jun 2025 14:14:36 GMT

Senate republicans are racing against the clock to finish their version of President Donald Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill. As the Senate continues to roll out its versions of the reconciliation bill, there are some differences between the House and Senate proposals when it come to agriculture.

The main variations come down to changes in the tax provisions, but it’s key to note proposed changes to the farm safety net are similar in both the House and the Senate.

What’s Next?
The House and Senate will now need to work out their differences in the two versions of the Big Beautiful Bill. President Trump said he wants to sign the legislation on July 4, but many reports cast doubt Congress can meet that approaching deadline. Politico even reported this week the Senate GOP’s version of the bill is “facing major headwinds in the House.”

Read More: Big, Beautiful Bill: What’s in it for Agriculture?

Farm CPA Paul Neiffer believes the July 4 deadline isn’t likely as the debate heats up, but he still remains optimistic the bill is close to the finish line.

“I think July is the date, but not July 4,” Neiffer says. “They’ll get it done before the August recess. I think they’re actually pretty close. The media out there talks about how they’re really far apart on Medicaid and state and local taxes. But I think when push comes to shove, the president has a lot of clout, and they’ll come up a compromise. So, I’m pretty optimistic they’ll get it done.”

Weighing the Differences Between the Senate and the House
Neiffer says he would grade the Senate’s overall budget reconciliation proposal as a “B” for ag, which is slightly below how he rated the House’s proposal. One reason is what the Senate is proposing for Section 199A:

The Senate has a Section 199A deduction of 20%, while the House’s version is 23%.
Both the House and Senate are calling for 100% bonus depreciation, but the Senate’s would be permanent. The House’s version would expire at the end of 2029.

“With the Senate making that permanent, that’s a really good deal for ag,” Neiffer says. “They would now have some certainty all of the assets that a farmer purchases — combines, tractors, buildings and everything but land — they can deduct 100%.”

Neiffer says another difference is on state and local tax deductions.

The Senate is keeping the current $10,000 deduction and reducing the benefit of the pass-through entity tax deduction.
The deduction is at the $40,000 level in the House and retains the pass-through entity deduction in full for farmers.

Beefed Up Farm Safety Net
Under the Senate’s version, Neiffer says farmers would be paid the higher calculated payment rate under Price Loss Coverage (PLC) or Agricultural Risk Coverage (ARC) during the 2025 crop year.

The Senate Ag Committee’s proposal also increases the reference price formula, and instead of having a floor based on 85% of the Olympic moving average marketing year price, the Senate is proposing an increase up to 88%.

“That actually results in a boost on the corn PLC price by about $0.15. And I think on soybeans, it’s about $0.35,” Neiffer says. “So, that’s very beneficial. Now, I was hoping they were going to boost the ceiling. Right now, the ceiling is 115% of the EFR. And they had talked last year about boosting it up to 120%. I think that was too much for the budget, so they kept it at 115%.”

The Differences on 45Z
When it comes to the 45Z Clean Fuels Production Tax Credit, there’s one major difference. The Senate allows foreign feedstocks to be eligible for the credit, just with a 20% “haircut.”

In the House’s version, only feedstocks produced or grown in the United States or Canada qualify for the tax credit. That change would help detour some of the used cooking oil imports from China.

“To me, a 20% haircut means there’s got to be some senators out there maybe pandering to somebody that I don’t know about. Because really, they should eliminate the whole foreign feedstock and just give you a credit based on domestic production,” Neiffer says.

The Bigger Issue with 45Z
Peter Meyer of Muddy Boots Ag says no matter what version of the 45Z tax credit makes the final cut, there’s a bigger issue at hand. The Trump administration needs to provide guidance and rules around 45Z — something the Biden administration failed to do during its time in office.

“We’re just clamoring for clarification, right? All I want is clarification. They can say all they want about extending this to 2030. That’s great. That’s a positive. But tell me what the rules are. We still don’t know the rules,” Meyer says.

Meyer knows there’s been so much talk about 45Z and sustainable aviation fuel, but little action in terms of demand. Meyer says the lack of action in terms of demand is largely because there’s no clarity around the tax credit.

“We need more demand for the ethanol they’re producing,” Meyer says. “Soybean oil can be converted to sustainable aviation fuel. But you just cannot produce sustainable aviation fuel without a credit. You can’t.”

EPA’s Proposed Rule A Potential ‘Game Changer’ for Farmers

Wed, 18 Jun 2025 21:32:27 GMT

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) proposed Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) for 2026 and 2027 have the potential to be a game changer for agriculture.

The EPA’s proposed rule, which comes under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) – and named the Set 2 Rule – would increase biomass-based diesel requirements, from 3.35 billion gallons in 2025 to 5.61 billion gallons in 2026, supporting American row-crop growers in the process.

“It creates a great opportunity to move from 3.35 to 5.61; it’s a massive increase,” says Caleb Ragland, a Kentucky farmer and president of the American Soybean Association (ASA).

“We have long lobbied for giving the American farmer a chance to sell American soybeans. Crush them here, use the oil to make American fuel and keep our economy going, ” Ragland told AgriTalk host Michelle Rook, on Wednesday.

Three Regulatory Takeaways

There are at least three key regulatory shifts that would accompany the volume increases:

1. Heightened quotas for cellulosic biofuel, biomass-based diesel (BBD), and advanced biofuels.

2. Prioritization of soybean oil and ethanol produced in the U.S. Imported biofuels would earn just 50% of the Renewable Identification Number (RIN) value compared to U.S.-based fuels.

3. Removal of renewable electricity (eRINs) as a qualifying fuel, reinforcing liquid biofuels as the Renewable Fuel Standard centerpiece.

In a press release, EPA said that these measures will cut U.S. oil import reliance by roughly 150,000 barrels per day across 2026 and 2027, backing domestic biofuel producers and strengthening rural economies.

“This [proposed rule by EPA] is not only good for farms, it’s good for rural communities. All of that trickles down and stays here in America. It’s a wonderful thing,” Ragland says.

An Update And Outlook On 45Z

The 45Z Clean Fuel Production Tax Credit was one of the few Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) incentives spared in the House’s proposed budget reconciliation bill. That’s likewise the case in the Senate. Both versions extend 45Z from 2027 to 2031.

“That’s a huge win … that certainly gives us a little bit of certainty in the world of uncertainty we’re living in right now,” Amy France, a Kansas farmer and chair of the National Sorghum Producers, said on AgriTalk.

Ragland agrees but noted ASA is concerned about some “last-minute” changes that are being proposed in the Senate version regarding the 45Z tax credit and foreign feedstocks.

While the House version modifies 45Z to prevent the use of certain foreign feedstocks outside of North America, such as used cooking oil, the Senate committee’s proposal allows use of feedstocks outside the U.S. but cuts the tax credit by 20%.

“We want to encourage that to get reversed … there’s no reason to give American dollars as tax credits to foreign entities that are bringing in foreign used cooking oil,” Ragland says. “We need to get that ironed out, and hopefully we will, but, but overall, there’s great opportunity here.”

France says she is encouraged by the extension granted 45Z. “We were thrilled to hear EPA specifically calling out sorghum as a dependable, low-cost biofuel feedstock. It just goes to show that recognition for sorghum and the realm we’re playing in today.”

Ragland and France weigh in on a variety of additional topics – from trade to state of current crops across the country to the need for a new Farm Bill – on this segment of AgriTalk. Listen to it here:

Biofuels in Flux: What 3 Key Policy Decisions Will Shape the Future of the Industry?

Thu, 12 Jun 2025 13:36:42 GMT

The future of the biofuels industry in the U.S. is uncertain as decisions on three specific policy areas are in flux.

1. Renewable Volume Obligations

The Office of Management and Budget is currently holding stakeholder meetings on EPA’s proposed Renewable Volume Obligations (RVO), or mandated blending levels.

Biofuels group worked with the American Petroleum Institute to submit recommendations to EPA asking for RVO levels of 15 billion gallons for ethanol and 5.25 billion gallons for bio-mass based diesel.

There has been speculation and rumor that the draft EPA sent to the White House had proposed levels that fell below these amounts.

However, biofuels officials have refuted that conjecture and say EPA has assured them the levels may even exceed their recommendations.

2. Small Refinery Exemptions

At the same time, the EPA is also considering the backlog of Small Refinery Exemptions (SREs) carried over from the Biden administration, according to Troy Bredenkamp, senior vice president of government and public affairs for the Renewable Fuels Association.

Some of those date back several years and have expired.

“There are 169 of these pending small refinery exemptions that have been building up from court cases and remands,” he explains. “Our calculation is that’s about 8.5 billion gallons, so it’s a significant number.”

That’s why the industry has asked EPA to make the two policy decisions together so the SREs can be reallocated to other refiners through the blending levels set under the Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS).

“We’ve said whether you have expired RINs you’re issuing or you have active RINs for the current compliance years, make a three-year average and take that number and include it back into this round of RVOs,” Bredenkamp explains.

3. 45Z as Part of the Budget Reconciliation Bill

The future of 45Z also hangs in the balance awaiting Senate action, after the House included an extension of the biofuels tax credit to 2031 in their budget reconciliation bill.

Paul Winters, director of public affairs for Clean Fuel Alliance America, says that was good news for the industry.

“That essentially puts the credit for liquid fuels on par with the credits for other technologies and gives them the same length of time to access this tax credit,” he says.

The House bill also excludes the biofuels tax credit to entities outside North America, such as China.

“There are restrictions to feedstocks solely from Canada, Mexico and the United States. There are other provisions to restrict the involvement of foreign entities of concern,” Winters adds.

The question now is will the Senate adopt the House’s 45Z language in their bill?

Geoff Cooper, president and CEO of the Renewable Fuels Association, says so far there’s been good support in the Senate for the program.

“We do expect 45Z will be maintained, protected as the Senate takes up budget reconciliation, but there very well could be additional changes made to the 45Z program,” he states.

In fact, biofuels groups have asked the Senate to make 45Z more workable, according to Cooper.

“They should specify in the law that agricultural practices need to be part of that emissions rate scoring process. That’s the only way we’re going ensure farmers have the ability to participate in this opportunity,” he says.

And so farmers can share in the revenue stream.

Missouri Farmer Calls Ford Out for Abandoning Ethanol Flex Fuel in New F-150 Trucks

Mon, 31 Mar 2025 20:23:50 GMT

Missouri Corn Growers Association CEO Bradley Schad, who still helps out around the family farm in his spare time, is calling on Ford Motor Company to reconsider a recent decision he believes will cause long-term harm to U.S. farmers.

“They stopped selling new flex fuel vehicles, so now they don’t have a single new engine platform option for growers to purchase,” Schad says. “The F-Series truck is one of the most important vehicles that we have on the farm today. They’re trying to change that (series) to an electric fleet, and we don’t like that.”

Farm Journal reached out to Ford for comment via a contact form for media on its website. We will update this post if we hear back from anyone at Ford Motor Company.

According to Schad, Ford’s F-150 is not only the top-selling truck in the U.S., but also the top-selling used vehicle in the top five corn-producing states: Iowa, Illinois, Nebraska, Minnesota and Indiana. It is also No. 1 in a handful of ag-friendly states like Missouri, Kansas, Kentucky, Mississippi, the Dakotas and the Carolinas.

Model Year 2023 was the last iteration of the F-150 that Ford offered with the V8 5.0-liter Flex Fuel option. Schad, who is a longtime F-150 owner, says he’s not interested in criticizing Ford for the change. After all, recent regulations removed many of the manufacturer incentives that used to exist for flex fuel and E-85 vehicles.

Bradley Schad, Missouri Corn Growers Association

(Photo courtesy Missouri Corn Growers Association )

“We’re just trying to bring some awareness and work with Ford to change the legislation and regulations and help bring that (option) back,” Schad says. “We realize it’s not entirely their own fault necessarily, but work with us to pass some beneficial legislation that helps farmers and rural consumers purchase a more economical fuel and reduce our dependence on foreign oil.”

Schad says Ford is still supporting its higher-ethanol compatible engines in South America. Brazil, for example, has a minimum ethanol blend in its fuel of 27.5%.

The company’s chief truck-building rivals at GM still offer flex fuel as an engine option on new base models of the Chevy Silverado and the GMC Sierra. Ford, it would seem, is stepping away from the same farmers that helped catapult its trucks to the top of the auto industry, he argues.

(Photo courtesy Missouri Corn Growers Association)

“We need Ford to stand strong with farmers – the No. 1 customer base of F Series trucks in the nation. I don’t think there’s any business sector that buys more F Series trucks than the agriculture sector,” he says. “We need Ford to give us the option to use our own product and help build demand for corn-based ethanol.”

RELATED - Grassley: Farmers Can Feed And Fuel The World At The Same Time. It’s Not Either/Or

Schad is optimistic a long-awaited-but-yet-to-be-passed new Farm Bill will include some type of carve out supporting ethanol-based fuels. Republican Iowa Senator Chuck Grassley has also been advocating for year-round E-15 fuel availability for years. Grassley and Nebraska Senator Deb Fischer (R) reintroduced the Nationwide Consumer and Fuel Retailer Choice Act of 2025 in February. If passed, that bill would enable year-round, nationwide sales of ethanol fuel blends up to 15%.

“We need permanency and predictability with ethanol and biodiesel,” Grassley recently told AgriTalk host Chip Flory.

And while Schad admits he has heard all the critiques of ethanol-based fuels - subpar performance, increased engine problems, etc. - his experience is that higher ethanol fuels are clean burning, high performing and safe.

“There’s nothing more helpful to a farmer than having a strong truck with a strong fuel providing more horsepower and torque in these engines,” Schad says. “Octane is key, and we want to make sure to partner with everyone we can. Hopefully Ford is willing to help us pass some beneficial legislation that brings ethanol the ability to be produced and consumed across the nation.”

Today, U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins announced USDA will release funding under the Higher Blends Infrastructure Incentive Program (HBIIP) for 543 projects totaling $537 million in 29 states. Established at USDA Rural Development during President Trump’s first term, HBIIP helps expand the production of domestic biofuels by helping fueling stations install the pumps, storage containers and other necessary infrastructure needed to offer biofuel options at the pump.

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Grassley: Farmers Can Feed And Fuel The World At The Same Time. It’s Not Either/Or

Mon, 24 Mar 2025 21:14:17 GMT

A still-agitated Sen. Chuck Grassley spoke to AgriTalk Host Chip Flory on Monday, detailing a list of frustrations from the town hall meeting Grassley hosted last Friday night at the Franklin County Courthouse in Hampton, Iowa.

The event marked the kickoff for Grassley’s 45th annual tour to each of Iowa’s 99 counties, done so he could hear directly from Iowans.

He heard from them all right.

About 150 Iowans worried and upset about funding cuts and mass firings of federal employees, led by Elon Musk and the Department of Government Efficiency, showed up and volleyed questions at the senior senator from Iowa.

In the overflow crowd were also a number of corn and soybean growers and county-based Republican party leaders Grassley and team had personally invited.

“A lot of them showed up. I’d have assumed I’d got a friendly question… And do you know that for a whole hour, not a single farmer or a single Republican leader asked me a single question,” the senator told Flory.

Instead, Grassley said he had to listen to “an hour of people complaining about President Donald Trump, Musk and Congress,” claiming the latter is not doing enough to provide a check on the president’s authority.

“Why wouldn’t they take an opportunity to ask Grassley something about international trade, or about the five-year farm bill or stuff like that?” Grassley asked Flory.

“I’ll ask you right now,” Flory responded. “Let’s talk about E15 and year-around availability. There’s a big push for it right now. Is that going to happen?”

“I think so, but I don’t know exactly when, because you’ve got to be bipartisan,” noted Grassley, who has long-championed year-round E15.

E15 Decision Requires Bipartisan Support

In mid-February, Grassley and Deb Fischer (R-Neb.), both members of the Senate Agriculture Committee, had reintroduced the Nationwide Consumer and Fuel Retailer Choice Act of 2025. The legislation is currently the only permanent, nationwide solution they said that will unleash the power of E15. The legislation would enable the year-round, nationwide sale of ethanol blends higher than 10 percent, helping to lower fuel prices and provide certainty in fuel markets for farmers and consumers.

“We’re hoping all those things get done, but we need permanency and predictability with ethanol and biodiesel,” Grassley told Flory. “And we need certainty, and this administration ought to give us that certainty.”

On his first day in office of his second term, President Trump directed the Environmental Protection Agency to explore the benefits of making E15 available year-round through his Executive Order Declaring a National Energy Emergency.

“We got plenty of leadership here in the Midwest, and all the president would have to do is say, ‘Well, why doesn’t Congress get off of its butt and get something passed to help and bring certainty to this very important industry, because we have the capability of feeding the world, and we have the capability of fueling the world,” Grassley said.

Trump Tariffs Are Concerning

Grassley has been very consistent over the years in his messages to American farmers and the public at large that he is not a proponent of using tariffs to negotiate trade decisions.

Flory asked Grassley what his take is on what’s currently happening on the trade front, and whether he anticipates any long-term gains resulting from implementing tariffs.

“I’m a free and fair trader. I want to negotiate tariffs down,” Grassley replied. “If the president’s plan works, I’m going to say, ‘Praise the Lord.’ And if it doesn’t work, I’m going to say, ‘I told you so.’ But I’m not telling him that yet.”

Grassley said while he’s been in the Senate, he has spent 40 years trying to eliminate or reduce tariffs. “If he (Trump) can do it in a better way, I’m going to honor him for doing it.”

Another trade-related issue Grassley brought up is the decision by the Trump administration to impose fees of up to $1.5 million on Chinese-built vessels entering U.S. ports as part of the administration’s efforts to revive the U.S. shipbuilding industry.

“I don’t know that the president understands what he’s doing,” Grassley said. “The president is just creating a problem every time a ship docks in the United States, putting up to a million-dollar-plus cost on it. It is going to make it much more difficult for us from a competitive standpoint. I don’t know if they really think this stuff through or not.”

Augusto Bassanini, president of the United Grain Corporation, said as much in a March 21 letter to U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. Bassanini, quoted in an online article by the South China Morning Post, said the “unintended consequences” of the proposed actions “are already beginning to surface, with global shipping markets reacting by reducing bookings to U.S. ports, increasing shipping rates, and modifying contractual terms.”

Are More Tough Economic Times Ahead?

Flory asked Grassley if the various issues are signaling a prolonged period of tough economic times for agriculture. “Should we be anticipating some payments to farmers like, you know, the market facilitation program payments under the first Trump administration?” Flory asked.

“Well, already we got the $29 for soybeans and $42 for corn going out now to farmers. That was the $10 billion appropriation of the previous bill, but that deals with the Biden economics,” Grassley replied.

“The only thing I’ve got to tell you is when (Trump’s) tariffs screwed up our sale of soybeans to China, then he put $28 billion out through the CCC (USDA’s Commodity Credit Corporation), which I think is too liberal of a delegation of authority to the president of the United States. But anyway, farmers want their money from the marketplace, not from the federal treasury,” Grassley added.

Flory’s final question to Grassley was regarding the timeline on tax cuts and budget reconciliation in the Senate.

Grassley said, “I hope today the chairman of the committee tells me he’s put together a bill. If he does that today, that will give us an opportunity to get something moving. Because until now, we’ve had 10 weeks of nothing but talk, talk, talk, going over the same thing week after week, and we got to move.”

The full discussion between Sen. Grassley and Flory on AgriTalk is available here.

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Farmers Watch As Next-Generation Biofuels Chase Market Growth In 2025

Fri, 28 Feb 2025 16:55:12 GMT

Optimism remains high that growth in the biofuels industry will continue under the new Trump administration. In late February, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin announced year-round E15 sales in eight Midwest states.

“Today’s decision underscores EPA’s commitment to consumer access to E15 while ensuring a smooth transition for fuel suppliers and refiners,” said EPA Administrator Zeldin in a press release .

In Congress, permanent E15 bills with broad bi-partisan support have been reintroduced in both chambers. A permanent E15 rule would increase ethanol demand by 5 to 7 billion gallons a year.

“The President has been, I believe, fairly unequivocal in stating his support for the importance of biofuels in the larger energy independence picture, and he also understands how important it is to our farmers and our ranchers who produce it,” said U.S. agriculture secretary Brooke Rollins during Top Producer Summit.

While the industry is watching the administration closely, green fuel mandates around the globe and those implemented during the Biden administration helped spark a flurry of investment in the renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) markets.

Farmdoc Daily at the University of Illinois counted 23 renewable diesel plants in operation by the end of 2026 with a total capacity of 5.261 billion gallons.

“I do believe U.S. agriculture’s future is in green diesel and green fuels, including sustainable aviation fuel. That’s where our demand growth is going forward,” says Dan Basse, president and CEO of AgResource. “It takes policy and it takes someone at the helm with a budget to make sure that it happens.”

As those investments mature and as a compliment to renewable diesel, manufacturers are also looking to grow the SAF market. In 2021, the Biden Administration set a goal of 3 billion gallons of SAF by the year 2030. Farmdoc Daily estimates that in 2025, there will be six plants online with a capacity to produce 834 million gallons.

(U.S. Energy Information Administration)

“Just in the U.S. alone, there’s about 30 billion gallons of conventional jet fuel used every year,” says Jeff Davidman, the vice president of state and local government affairs at Delta Airlines. “The U.S. airline industry has made a commitment as an industry to replace 10% of their conventional jet fuel with SAF by 2030. That’s 3 billion gallons. In 2022, there were 25 million gallons made.”

This means the industry can scale quickly to meet those targets as long as the demand for these fuels continues. Delta isn’t alone - other airlines like Southwest touted SAF usage in 2024. The airline is reportedly cutting staff, and looking to pull back on sustainable targets.

However, investments in these “green” fuels continue to be announced. On Feb. 3, 2025, Gevo, Inc. announced the acquisition of Red Tail Energy’s ethanol production plant in Richardton, N.D., where it will focus on SAF.

“We’re primarily focused on sustainable aviation fuel and commercializing essentially a brand new industry,” says Kent Hartwig, director of state government affairs at Gevo. “We’ve been able to utilize ag products for renewable fuels for four decades now. As we see changes in fuel usage, that’s going to mean potential changes in ethanol production. How do we continue to sustain this industry? It’s through new markets. Having a new outlet, like sustainable aviation fuel, is an important market driver to keep farm profitability high.”

Even as a new administration takes over in Washington, Hartwig remains bullish despite the vocal calls to increase domestic oil production.

“The president has been crystal clear on his administration’s desire to see domestic energy dominance,” Hartwig says. “We’ve seen multiple executive orders that have laid out his plan for how we continue to be dominant in that area and in both he specifically calls out biofuels. So, while ‘drill, baby, drill’ is what the President has been saying, I also think he means ‘grow, baby, grow’.”

Ag secretary Rollins echoed those same sentiments during a fireside chat at Top Producer Summit in February.

“Remember during his first primary election, President Trump was the first major candidate to support biofuels, and I think that carried him through Iowa in many ways,” Rollins says. “He hasn’t forgotten that.”

“I think what you see in the policy space is the need to have these fuels available in the future,” says Cory-Ann Wind, director of state regulatory affairs for Clean Fuels Alliance America .

Her organization focuses on advancing biodiesel, renewable diesel and SAF policies.

“I think as long as the regulations or the policies evolve, you’re going to see more and more innovation in this industry,” Wind says.

Wind says regardless of what happens in Washington, state mandates and private industry goals are helping keep the momentum going.

“We’re looking at any mode of transportation that uses diesel,” Wind says. “We’re talking about trucks, ag equipment, construction equipment, long-haul semis and even marine.”

As global demand for these new-era biofuels continues to rise, it’s building a domestic market with the potential to improve prices on the farm.

“In 1979, the U.S. accounted for 62% of world agricultural trade and today that number’s down to 12%,” Basse says. “We now need to find another demand driver for U.S. agriculture.”

In 2024, the U.S. exported a record 1.9 million gallons of ethanol around the globe. CoBank put out a report that says those exports are the key to that industry’s growth. It says exports could top 2 billion gallons in 2025 and 2026.

“This is a real opportunity for the Midwest and Midwest farmer to lead in this space,” Davidman says. “This isn’t just U.S. or Delta demand. This is global demand.”

USDA's Interim Rule for Climate-Smart Crops Used As Biofuel Feedstocks Viewed Favorable for Farmers

Wed, 15 Jan 2025 18:35:12 GMT

Today, USDA announced the publication of an interim rule on Technical Guidelines for Climate-Smart Agriculture Crops Used as Biofuel Feedstocks. The interim rule establishes guidelines for quantifying, reporting, and verifying the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with the production of biofuel feedstock commodity crops grown in the United States.

USDA says these guidelines “will facilitate the recognition of climate-smart agriculture within clean transportation fuel programs, creating new market opportunities for biofuel feedstock producers while enhancing climate benefits.”

Highlights:

Farmers can choose one or more of the CSA actions — no-till or reduced-till, cover crops, and nutrient management.
Unlike prior rules, farmers no longer have to use all three on the same field at the same time.
Corn, soybeans, and sorghum are the crops specified as was noted in 45Z guidance.
USDA will release a beta version of what is called the USDA Feedstock Carbon Intensity Calculator (USDA FD-CIC) to facilitate the farm-level, crop-specific reductions.
There will be a final version established and results via the beta version should be viewed as preliminary.
60-day comment period on the interim final rule.
Key will be the chain of custody and traceability and recordkeeping requirements.

“The new guidelines are a win for farmers, biofuel producers, the public, and the environment. The action today marks an important milestone in the development of market-based conservation opportunities for agriculture,” said USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack.

He added that today’s action builds on the prior work to create greater opportunity for homegrown, renewable biofuels. From making E15 more widely available at gas station pumps and approving record biofuel levels, to investing in infrastructure to help communities invest in biofuels, to accelerating a future for Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF).

“America’s farmers play a critical role in building the clean energy economy,” said White House Senior Advisor for International Climate Policy John Podesta. “Today’s announcement from USDA reinforces the important role climate-smart agriculture plays in our rural economy, including in fueling clean transportation solutions, as well as the importance of providing pathways for unbundled, science-based accounting of the carbon benefits of climate-smart practices that help farmers earn more for what they grow.”

The rule establishes a framework to connect climate-smart agriculture (CSA) practices applied in the production of feedstock crops with reductions in the carbon footprint of biofuels.

The rule includes three feedstock crops: corn, soy, and sorghum. It also covers CSA practices that could reduce GHG emissions or sequester carbon, including reduced till and no-till; cover cropping; and nutrient management practices, such as the use of nitrification inhibitors.

Importantly, the interim rule allows for adoption of CSA practices both individually or in combination. This means that participating farmers would have the flexibility to adopt the CSA practices that make sense for their operation, while still being able to produce feedstocks with reduced carbon intensities under the rule.

Through this interim rule, USDA is establishing standards that can be used to quantify, track, and report the impacts of these practices. The interim rule establishes voluntary guidelines that may inform the development of requirements for other programs which incentivize low-carbon biofuels.

USDA says establishing quantification and verification standards for climate-smart practices helps to ensure that the net GHG emissions reductions from these practices are real, thereby improving credibility and confidence, which could facilitate market opportunities for U.S. farmers growing biofuel feedstocks. Besides reducing GHG emissions and increasing carbon sequestration, CSA practices can also generate additional environmental benefits, including improved water quality and soil health.

The interim rule includes guidelines on the following:

Biofuel feedstock crops and entities in the biofuel supply chain;
Quantification of farm-level crop-specific carbon intensity;
Chain of custody standards for entities in the biofuel supply chain, including traceability and recordkeeping standards;Auditing and verification requirements; and
Climate-smart agriculture practice standards for the biofuel feedstock crops included under the rule.

USDA is also publishing a beta version of the USDA Feedstock Carbon Intensity Calculator (USDA FD-CIC) to facilitate the quantification of farm-level crop-specific carbon intensity. USDA FD-CIC allows for the calculation of a farm-scale carbon intensity in line with the standards in the interim rule. USDA will complete a peer-review process to finalize the methodology and resulting carbon intensities included in USDA FD-CIC.

USDA will evaluate and respond to the public feedback and peer-review provided on USDA FD-CIC, after which USDA will establish a final version. Until that time, USDA says users should consider values from USDA FD-CIC as preliminary. As part of this process of testing and feedback prior to finalization, the public will have the opportunity to examine and download USDA FD-CIC to experience how it would operate.

Next Steps

USDA is requesting public comment on the interim rule to help inform future revisions or additions to the final rule. Interested parties are welcome to submit comments on any aspect of the rule. Interested parties may submit comments during the 60-day public comment period at regulations.gov.

Biden Administration's 45Z Announcement Leaves More Questions Than Answers

Mon, 13 Jan 2025 21:16:34 GMT

The Treasury Department and Internal Revenue Service (IRS) issued preliminary guidance on the 45Z tax credit on Friday, which was created by the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA/Climate Act), including the addition of sorghum as a crop that could qualify as a feedstock for a fuel that can claim the 45Z credit if certain climate smart agriculture (CSA) practices are followed.

The program aims to incentivize the production of clean transportation fuels, including sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). Today’s announcement was a “notice of intent to propose regulations” for 45Z, meaning some important details of interpreting the tax code will be left to the incoming Trump administration.

Treasury also released a notice that provides the emissions rate table for the 45Z credit. And the updated GREET model will also be released soon, according to the Department of Energy.

In the long-awaited guidance, the U.S. is moving to curb imports of used cooking oil, which have been flooding into the country, for biofuels production. The guidance would prevent foreign supplies used to make biofuels from qualifying for the tax credit. This decision is seen as a win for U.S. farmers. The guidance notes Treasury and IRS concern with UCO relative to the “improper identification” of substances included that are not UCO such as virgin palm oil. There is no mention of imported UCO being eligible relative to the 45ZCF-GREET model.

Of note: There is a question whether the CORSIA model could be used for imported UCO, but it cannot be measured for GHG reductions under the 45ZCF-GREET model.

“This tax credit is essential to U.S. competitiveness and to reduce emissions in the transportation sector with more affordable, cleaner fuel,” Deputy Energy Secretary David Turk said. “The final guidance released today provides clarity and certainty to America’s world-leading biofuel industry.”

Ag Groups Criticize the Guidance for Lacking Details

U.S. biofuels and corn groups criticized the overall guidance as lacking details on what qualifies for tax credits.

Geoff Cooper, chief executive officer of ethanol trade group Renewable Fuels Association, said it fell short of expectations and doesn’t give producers of corn-based U.S. ethanol the certainty they seek.
Emily Skor, CEO of ethanol lobbying group Growth Energy, said the guidance “still lacks the critical details that are needed to help ensure that American biofuel producers and their farm partners can lead the world in clean fuel production.”
The National Corn Growers Association said more clarity is needed about the specific environmental practices that will be required for accessing the credit. “What a missed opportunity for growers,” said President Kenneth Hartman Jr., an Illinois farmer.

The Only Real News
The only real news from the Treasury Dept. seems to be that foreign origin used cooking oil will not qualify for 45Z tax incentives under the so-called GREET model, a Department of Energy tool used to determine the full sweep of greenhouse gases emitted from the transportation and energy industries.

But some question whether the CORSIA model could be used for imported UCO, but it cannot be measured for GHG reductions under the 45ZCF-GREET model. The globally accepted Corsia standard established by the United Nations governing body for aviation, green jet fuel made with foreign feedstocks would have access to the credit, some note.

Others say UCOs still qualify for the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) program and California’s LCFS. Fuel made with UCO is highly valued in low-carbon fuel markets like California because of its relatively small carbon footprint. Some details and alerts:

Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS)
Under the RFS program administered by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), used cooking oil is an approved feedstock for producing renewable fuel. Specifically: UCO falls under the “Biomass-Based Diesel” category of the RFS. Fuels produced from UCO must demonstrate a life cycle greenhouse gas emissions reduction of at least 50% compared to petroleum diesel. Biofuel producers using UCO can generate Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs), which are credits used for RFS compliance.

California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS)
UCO also qualifies under California’s LCFS program: It is considered a low-carbon intensity feedstock for renewable diesel production. UCO-derived renewable diesel can generate LCFS credits due to its lower carbon intensity compared to petroleum diesel. The California Air Resources Board (CARB) has approved fuel pathways for renewable diesel produced from UCO. However, it’s important to note that there are some recent developments and potential changes regarding UCO in these programs:

EPA has been conducting audits of supply chain documentation for imported UCO used in renewable fuel production. This is to ensure the legitimacy of UCO sources and prevent potential fraud.
CARB is proposing new requirements for feedstock traceability and sustainability certification, although these may focus more on crop-based feedstocks rather than waste oils like UCO.
There are discussions about potentially capping the use of certain biofuel feedstocks in the LCFS, but these proposals have primarily focused on crop-based oils rather than waste oils like UCO.

Soybean oil futures for March jumped by the exchange limit in Chicago on Friday, surging 7%, the most since June 2023.

Additional Details About Friday’s Announcement

The guidance states: “Under section 45Z, a fuel must be “suitable for use” as a transportation fuel. Treasury and the IRS intend to propose that 45Z-creditable transportation fuel must itself (or when blended into a fuel mixture) have either practical or commercial fitness for use as a fuel in a highway vehicle or aircraft. The guidance clarifies that marine fuels that are otherwise suitable for use in highway vehicles or aircraft, such as marine diesel and methanol, are also 45Z eligible. Specifically, this would mean that neat SAF that is blended into a fuel mixture that has practical or commercial fitness for use as a fuel would be creditable.

Additionally, natural gas alternatives such as renewable natural gas (RNG) would be suitable for use if produced in a manner such that if it were further compressed it could be used as a transportation fuel.

Electricity is not included in the definition of transportation fuel used in the guidance so electricity production is not eligible for the 45Z credit.

“Today’s guidance states that Treasury intends to propose rules for incorporating the emissions benefits from climate-smart agriculture (CSA) practices for cultivating domestic corn, soybeans, and sorghum as feedstocks for SAF and non-SAF transportation fuels. These options would be available to taxpayers after Treasury and the IRS propose regulations for the section 45Z credit, including rules for CSA, and the 45ZCF-GREET model is updated to enable calculation of the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions rates for CSA crops, taking into account one or more CSA practices.”

Treasury said that it and IRS intend to define several key concepts and provide “certain rules” in a future rulemaking to:

Make clear their intent to provide that the “the producer of the eligible clean fuel is eligible to claim the 45Z credit. Consistent with the statute, compressors and blenders of fuel would not be eligible.”
Provide that under 45Z, a fuel must be “suitable for use” as a transportation fuel. “Treasury and the IRS intend to propose that 45Z-creditable transportation fuel must itself (or when blended into a fuel mixture) have either practical or commercial fitness for use as a fuel in a highway vehicle or aircraft.”

Treasury and IRS also expect there will be a requirement for “unrelated party certification of CSA crops, including information related to chain of custody of CSA crops throughout the biofuel supply chain.”

Treasury noted the CSA pilot program that was launched in relation to the SAF credit (40B) which had limited benefit for corn and soybean producers as it required corn producers to use three CSA practices —no-till farming, planting cover crops, and applying enhanced efficiency nitrogen fertilizer — on the same acres and soybean producers to use two practices — no-till farming and planting cover crops. “Treasury has received and continues to consider substantial feedback from stakeholders on that pilot program,” the agency said.

USDA is currently developing voluntary technical guidelines for CSA reporting and verification. Treasury and IRS will consider those guidelines in proposing rules recognizing the benefits of CSA for purposes of the section 45Z credit. USDA has sent to the Office of Management Budget (OMB) an interim final rule that would set voluntary technical guidelines for CSA reporting and verification. “Treasury and IRS will consider those guidelines in proposing rules recognizing the benefits of CSA for purposes of the section 45Z credit,” Treasury said.

Comments on the guidance are due by April 10.

Sort Out The Biofuels Provisions Of The Inflation Reduction Act

Sun, 01 Dec 2024 14:00:00 GMT

Enacted in August 2022, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) restructured biofuels tax credits in three ways: extend the Biodiesel Blenders Tax Credit (40A), create a sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) tax credit (40B) and transition future biofuel tax credits to a carbon intensity (CI) (45Z).

“Both 40A and 40B become part of 45Z, transitioning blending to a production credit,” says Susan Stroud with No Bull Ag. “As the end of 2024 draws near, which is the end of 40B providing a $1 per gallon subsidy in the form of a blender tax credit for every gallon of biodiesel and renewable diesel blended into U.S. fuel supplies, oil share has somewhat been buoyed, as mandates are increasing at the same time we are disincentivizing fuel imports. This should spell more demand for soybean oil.”

As the hand off to 45Z nears, there’s a lack of clarity for the opportunity for farmers.

“USDA is trying to put guidance together to help the Department of Treasury with the 45Z rules,” explains Mitchell Hora, founder of Continuum Ag. “But climate smart commodities and low carbon feed stocks for biofuels are not the same thing.”

Whereas bundles were used with 40B and other previous programs are an all or nothing approach, Hora contends 45Z needs to use the Department of Energy’s GREET model.

“If bundles are used, it stifles farmer innovation — it waters down the impact,” he says. “We have to get this done right. The weight of this decision is massive. The ripple effect 45Z could have is tremendous.”

Legislation has been introduced to extend the biofuels tax credit through 2025 as we are still waiting on the Treasury to issue 45Z guidance.

Unscripted: Will New Policies Reshape the Ag Industry’s Future?

Mon, 18 Nov 2024 15:01:31 GMT

As new presidential and congressional administrations prepare to grab the governmental reins, ag professionals wonder what the new leadership will mean for the industry. Will we finally get a new farm bill? Who will be the next secretary of agriculture? Will we get clarification on nagging questions about biofuels? Will producers continue to face rising input costs and low commodity prices?

Washington D.C. ag economist John Newton sees opportunities for improving the industry’s financial outlook with new leadership in place. On the latest episode of the Unscripted podcast , Newton asks, “What needs to happen to turn this around?” and answers his question with “it all starts with demand.” Noting that corn exports have been strong, he says, “All eyes are going to be on this next administration for how we proceed with agricultural exports to our top markets.”

Increasing exports can give the ag economy a much-needed boost, and he’s optimistic about that possibility. “I’m focused heavily on the opportunities we have ahead of us in U.S. agriculture,” he says. “We’re the best in the world at what we do, we have the highest quality products, we just need an opportunity to deliver those products to the global market.”

He also has a positive outlook on the long-awaited farm bill, which currently remains in the hands of the lame-duck Senate ag committee.

“I’m optimistic we can get it done, but the clock is ticking,” he says. “There’s an opportunity to do something bipartisan for ag, for rural America.” From updated crop insurance to risk management tools to funding for rural childcare and health care to ag trade promotion programs, the bill could address many persistent issues that producers face. “The list,” says Newton, “is long.”

While he recognizes the major obstacles preventing a turnaround for the ag economy, he’s also optimistic about the candidates for the next secretary of agriculture. “There are a number of highly qualified people on the list,” he says. “It’s important to have somebody in that seat who works well with agriculture and is a good ambassador for us in the Oval Office.”

Watch the full episode of Unscripted.

Trump Trade Policy Seen As Wild Card for U.S. Soybean Farmers, Opportunity for Crushers

Wed, 13 Nov 2024 21:45:58 GMT

By Karl Plume and Renee Hickman

American farmers are worried that President-elect Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff plans will curb their access to top soy buyer China, but tariffs could also lure companies to build more U.S. crushing plants, hungry for domestic supplies.

Trump’s plans to roll out blanket import tariffs could slam the door on imported vegetable oil supplies, which renewable energy analysts said could in turn lure the U.S. crush industry to revive lagging plans to build new plants and expand capacity.

Such expansion has faltered over the past year, as the U.S. market was flooded with cheaper global supplies of diesel feedstocks like used cooking oil (UCO) from China, tallow from Brazil and canola oil from Canada.

Now, these supplies are likely targets for Trump’s tariffs while global supplies of other vegoils are tightening and prices climbing, analysts said. USDA data projects that global rapeseed oil supplies will shrink by 13% over the coming year with sunflower seed oil stocks down 24%. Indonesian palm oil shipments have dropped as that country plans to boost biodiesel production next year.

Potential new demand helped send Chicago Board of Trade soy oil futures jumping nearly 6% last week to the highest in seven months, traders said.

Analysts cautioned it remained too soon to know how, or if, the Trump Administration will change President Joe Biden’s law providing a decade of lucrative subsidies for clean-energy projects. Building domestic demand for such crops is key for eating through excess stocks, especially without access to the Chinese export market, agricultural economists said.

Hefty global competition could dent incomes for farmers who just harvested the second-largest U.S. soybean crop ever at a time when crop prices hover near four-year lows.

If tariffs prompt retaliation by global U.S. soybean importers, big soy processors such as Bunge Global and Archer-Daniels-Midland Co could benefit from a larger and likely cheaper supply of beans for them to crush in the U.S., industry analysts said.

“If Trump goes the tariff direction, it is friendly for the U.S. crushing industry and capacity,” said Kent Woods, owner of advisory firm CrushTraders. Woods added that U.S. soyoil demand would also rise if Trump blocks imported oils from benefiting from renewable fuel tax credits.

Farmers in rural Evansville, Wis., were still waiting for the state’s first commercial-scale soybean crushing plant, which had been slated to break ground last year.

For Nancy Kavazanjian and husband Charlie Hammer, the plant would mean an end to the nearly 400-mile round-trip to haul their soybeans to an Illinois buyer.

The savings would be huge, Kavazanjian said. “It’s manpower, it’s fuel and it’s time.”

Promise of Riches
Soaring vegoil demand from biofuels makers triggered a flood of projects to build new soy processing plants three years ago.

A mix of state and federal programs aimed at boosting lower carbon intensity fuels got a lift from Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) climate legislation in 2022. Since 2021, U.S. renewable diesel production capacity soared 200%.

Six new soybean processing facilities or plant expansions in Iowa, Nebraska and North Dakota opened in less than two years. At least four more projects in Nebraska, Ohio, Indiana and Louisiana are slated to launch through 2026.

Yet in about a half-dozen Midwestern towns, the lucrative promise of riches has stalled.

Crushers blame the delays on the flood of biofuel feedstock imports, soaring construction costs and the end of cheap financing as interest rates surged to a 23-year high.

U.S. farmers looking to boost domestic soyoil demand have unsuccessfully tried to get Biden’s Treasury Department to exclude imported biofuel feedstocks from IRA subsidies known as 45Z. It remains too soon to know if Trump will try to alter the IRA’s clean energy provisions or limit imports of used cooking oil, said Susan Stroud, founding analyst at No Bull Ag consulting.

Election Results
Some firms slammed the brakes on oilseeds plant expansions in order to wait and see how the election will impact biofuels policy. Permitting delays have stalled plant expansions by global oilseeds processor Bunge and joint venture partner Chevron in Destrehan, Louisiana, and Cairo, Illinois, along with slow approvals by the two companies, Bunge told Reuters.

Industry sources said Bunge scrapped plans to expand its massive plant in Council Bluffs, Iowa. Bunge declined to comment.

Work on United Cooperative’s smaller-scale plant in Waupun, Wisconsin, lagged after construction costs rose and interest rates soared, said Woods of advisory firm CrushTraders.

United Coop CEO David Cramer said it will be online within two years; the only delays were in getting equipment.

Soy processors also expect higher construction costs next year. Tariffs on imported steel and processing plant equipment could prove unpalatable for crushers that have yet to break ground.

Evansville Mayor Dianne Duggan said CHS had spoken about approving construction of the local facility as early as spring of 2023. The plant would be able to crush 70 million bushels of soybeans annually - or about two-thirds of Wisconsin’s total crop production, according to company and government data.

Today, it’s an empty field. CHS said the project is still under consideration.

(Reporting by Karl Plume in Chicago and Renee Hickman in Evansville, Wisconsin, additional reporting by P.J. Huffstutter in Chicago; Editing by David Gregorio)

Trump Taps Lee Zeldin to Lead EPA; What Does It Signal for Agriculture?

Tue, 12 Nov 2024 15:36:34 GMT

President-elect Donald Trump has selected former New York congressman Lee Zeldin to lead the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in his upcoming administration. This appointment signals a potential shift in environmental policy and regulatory approach. Here are the key points about this nomination:

• Zeldin is a former Republican congressman who represented New York’s 1st congressional district from 2015 to 2023.
• He lacks extensive experience in environmental policy, having not served on committees with direct oversight of environmental issues during his time in Congress.
• Zeldin has a lifetime score of only 14% from the League of Conservation Voters, indicating a record of frequently voting against environmental legislation.

Trump stated that Zeldin would “ensure fair and swift deregulatory decisions” to “unleash the power of American businesses.” The administration aims to maintain “the highest environmental standards, including the cleanest air and water on the planet” while pursuing deregulation.

Zeldin is expected to focus on restoring “U.S. energy dominance” and revitalizing the auto industry.

He may be tasked with rolling back several Biden administration environmental regulations, particularly those targeting power plant pollution and vehicle emissions. There are plans to end the pause on constructing new natural gas export terminals and potentially withdraw the U.S. from the Paris climate agreement.

Zeldin joined Trump and Sen.-elect Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania for a roundtable on agriculture during Trump’s campaign in September. Zeldin praised Trump for addressing the “threat” of foreign entities buying U.S. agricultural land and highlighted Trump’s trade policies, including the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which prioritized American farmers and strengthened supply chain resiliency.

Of note to the biofuels sector, In November 2015, Zeldin and several other members of Congress sent a letter to EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy expressing concerns about the proposed 2016 Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) program. The lawmakers worried that the proposed 2016 RVOs would require blending more ethanol than could be absorbed by the E10 gasoline market, effectively “breaking through” the blend wall. There were concerns that exceeding the blend wall could drive up the price of E10 gasoline for consumers. Ultimately, the EPA did finalize 2016 RVOs that were lower than originally proposed in the RFS statute, but still represented an increase over previous years. The agency attempted to balance the competing interests and technical constraints in the fuel market.

Meanwhile, discussions are underway about possibly relocating the EPA headquarters outside of Washington, D.C.

Environmental advocates criticized the nomination, viewing it as a potential regression in environmental policy. Zeldin’s record includes opposition to several climate-related bills and support for increased fossil fuel production.

Zeldin’s appointment as EPA Administrator will require Senate confirmation.