Beef - General

Beyond the Blame Game: Navigate the Mental Toll of Modern Ag

Fri, 03 Apr 2026 14:56:34 GMT

When market pressures mount, it is easy to succumb to the “blame game.” Yet, the most resilient operations are those that anchor themselves in a mission larger than the current balance sheet. For leaders like James Burgum and Lamar Steiger, coping with stress isn’t just about managing the books, it’s about managing the mindset.

The Many Hats of the Modern Producer

James Burgum, CEO of The Arthur Companies, believes the first step in managing stress is acknowledging the sheer weight of the roles farmers play.

“One of the things I did when I stepped into my role is an exercise where I said to our team, ‘Help me understand all the hats on the farm – farmworker, agronomist, grain merchandiser, mechanic, truck driver, snow removal lead, banker, economist,’” Burgum said during a discussion at Top Producer Summit. “You start to go down the list, and its dozens and dozens of roles that an individual farmer plays.”

By recognizing the complexity of these roles, Burgum argues that producers can move toward servant leadership—prioritizing the team’s needs.

“There are things that are much more important and much bigger than the challenges we’re wrestling with on the job every day,” Burgum says. “It’s hard to juggle all the balls, but at the end of the day, we want everyone on our team to make sure they get home at night and be there for their families.”

Choosing Abundance Over Scarcity

Lamar Steiger, owner of The 808 Ranch, learned about stress through the lens of his father, a man who seemed to face every possible setback: health crises, financial downturns and missed market peaks.

The farm struggled during times of high interest rates in the late ‘70s and early ‘80s and his father was diagnosed with an autoimmune disorder, Guillain-Barre, that left him paralyzed for six months.

Still, his dad always had an attitude of abundance, not scarcity, Steiger says.

“With my brothers holding other obligations, I was left to milk the cows,” Steiger says. “We were so far behind, and all my dad would say is, ‘It could be worse.’”

Breaking the Silence

Eventually, his family lost the dairy. After hitting rock bottom and battling depression , Steiger realized that the “tough it out” mentality was a liability, not an asset.

“When the stresses pile up, you’ve got to find help,” Steiger says. “I wasn’t ‘man enough’ to step up and say, ‘Hey, something’s wrong here.’ I should have said, ‘Time out—this is not working.’”

Steiger’s advice for those feeling the weight of the current market is simple: Find your “who.” Whether it is a spouse, a neighbor or a professional, talking through the stress is the only way to separate your self-worth from the volatility of the markets.

“In agriculture, we’re so reliant on outside forces,” Steiger says. “You’ve got to have an attitude that it’s going to work out. As my Dad would say, ‘Well, we never missed a meal.’ That was his bottom line for ‘It’s okay.’”

From Constraints to Catalysts: How Ag Leaders Turn Hardships into Strategy

Thu, 02 Apr 2026 18:19:05 GMT

In an industry defined by “one-year-at-a-time” cycles, the greatest threat to a growing operation isn’t just a market downturn—it’s the inertia that comes with size. Farm Journal CEO Prescott Shibles argues that long-term survival requires a rare blend of faith and agility. To maintain an entrepreneurial mindset, leaders must lean into “conviction” as the core of a strategy that survives the lows.

Here is how four industry leaders are turning today’s constraints into tomorrow’s differentiators.

1. Build when times are hard.

When Brent Smith, president and CEO of NewLeaf Symbiotics, joined the company in 2023, the grain market was entering a significant down cycle. While some saw a risky time to lead a startup, he saw an opportunity.

“I learned in my first startup that the best time to build a business is in hard times,” Smith said said during a discussion at Top Producer Summit. “Because if you can’t withstand tough times, you’re not going to survive long term.”

For Smith, survival meant doubling down on the company’s core: science. Despite the pressure to cut costs, NewLeaf continues to spend half of its operating expenses on science.

“It would be very easy to peel that back,” he admits. “But we focused on projects that make the most impact the quickest, while keeping an eye on the long-term innovation in our pipeline.”

2. Control what you can control.

Farmers face the ultimate constraint every year: the weather. Scott Beck, president of Beck’s Hybrids, recalls the planting crisis of 2019 when constant rains kept tractors out of the fields well into May.

“I was concerned for our customers not being able to plant, but also for us not being able to plant our seed for the next year,” Beck says. “There was nothing that we could do to control the weather, but we could control how we interacted with our customers.”

Rather than retreating, the Beck’s team focused on transparency and empathy, using video series to connect with farmers and even forming small groups for prayer and support. Ultimately, they wanted farmers to know they cared and were there to support them however they could.

Despite the financial reality of what could happen if farmers didn’t plant and returned seed, Beck’s decided their course of action would not include employee layoffs. Instead, they prepared to sell land to protect their people.

“Fortunately, the weather broke and everybody was able to get planted,” he says. “Then the second miracle happened. We had the second warmest September on record, and that’s what brought the crop through to enable 2019 to not turn out as bad as it started.”

3. Turn disadvantages into advantages.

In 2014, Lamar Steiger, owner of The 808 Ranch, was tasked with a monumental challenge: helping Walmart reinvent its beef supply chain. At the time, the retail giant was at a disadvantage, forced to accept whatever the major meatpackers provided.

Steiger’s strategy was to turn that lack of control into a new kind of independence.

“I convinced the Walmart team to go around the traditional supply chain,” Steiger says. Today, Walmart sources 28% of its beef from its own “farm-to-table” supply chain.

There’s no question that decision was really good for Walmart. But Steiger says it was also really good for him personally.

“It reminded me that no matter how big you are, there are always challenges,” he says.

4. Create “white space” for the future.

When the day-to-day tasks of an operation become overwhelming, long-term strategy is often the first thing to go. James Burgum, CEO of The Arthur Companies, believes leaders must intentionally carve out “white space” for their teams.

“It’s important to find ways where people can actually spend their time working on the business, not just in the business,” he says.

By protecting time for team members to execute ideas that are three to five years out, Burgum manages the tension between short-term urgency and long-term viability.

“It’s hard to step away from the daily fires you’ll face in your operation, but it’s important,” he adds. “How we manage that tension of short term and long term is creating that white space and making sure that we consciously work on the business.

The Long Game

Ultimately, resilience in agriculture is about knowing when to push and when to pivot.

“You have to know when to put the gas down, and you need to know when to tap the brake,” Smith says. “And regardless of what you are doing, you need to stay focused on what you’re doing.”

Whether it is investing in science during a downturn or choosing customer empathy over the bottom line, these leaders say constraints don’t have to be roadblocks; they can be the very catalysts that drive an operation forward.

Reciprocity and Balance: The New Blueprint for U.S. Agricultural Trade Agreements

Thu, 05 Mar 2026 21:01:55 GMT

Ambassador Julie Callahan is the chief ag negotiator at the U.S. Trade Representative, and she reports positive momentum toward rebuilding trade agreements equating to a positive U.S. ag trade balance.

“We came into a situation in January 2025 where the US ag trade deficit was ballooning in a really unsustainable manner,” she says.

At the beginning of 2025, USDA forecasted a $50 billion deficit for U.S. agricultral trade.

“Compare that to an agricultural trade surplus in 2020 when President Trump left office, of a $6 billion surplus. So we were $56 billion in the hole, you might say, at the beginning of the administration, but through the efforts of the president ensuring trading partners understand they need to treat U.S. farmers and ranchers right, we are seeing real shifts in our trade balance and chipping away at the deficit toward a surplus.”

Trade Wins Highlighted by Government Officials

Callahan points to eight signed trade agreements with: Malaysia, Cambodia, El Salvador, Guatemala, Argentina, Bangladesh, Taiwan and Indonesia. She says these are binding agreements, where the foreign governments are:

lowering tariffs for U.S. ag products
removing unfair trade practices
and lifting regulatory barriers

“These are serious binding trade agreements that will deliver real value for U.S. farmers and ranchers,” Callahan says. And when asked if Congressional action to codify agreements is necessary, Callahan says that action would be supported but should not be necessary.

“These foreign governments have made binding commitments in terms of adjusting tariff schedules, they are also making regulatory changes. USTR will be enforcing these agreements. They are enforceable.”

Examples of enforceable commitments include:

Indonesia removes its import licensing requirements
Malaysia accepts facilities on their registration list as long as FSIS has them on their list

The Future of the U.S./China Trade Relationship

At the 2026 Top Producer Summit, Lyu Jiang, minister for economic and commercial affairs at the Chinese Embassy in the U.S., characterized the U.S. and Chinese relationship being a phase of stabilization.

When prompted to react, Callahan agreed saying, “We very much want a stable, predictable, transactional relationship with our Chinese counterparts. We do want to normalize, bring reciprocity and balance back to our trade relationship and ensure that U.S. farmers, and ranchers can benefit from the Chinese market again.”

She says her office is balancing the agricultural stakeholders wanting access to the large-scale Chinese market with a strategy to also diversify trade partnerships as to not be too reliant on a single country.

“We are working through the agreement on reciprocal trade to diversify our markets so we don’t overly rely on China,” she says. “We are looking to address that very serious situation where China may see agriculture as a pain point for the United States.”

With the upcoming meeting of President Trump and President Xi in April, Callahan says her team and the larger U.S. trade team is working to prepare and set the stage for a positive outcome. Callahan points to specific issues to be worked through and market focuses spanning crops and livestock.

“Both sides want the meetings to be a success,” she says. “Certainly, in the meetings leading up to the president level discussion, we will be having open and frank conversations with China where we need to see areas of improvement. That’s not limited to soybeans to sorghum. Our beef producers don’t have access to China due to China’s unfortunate actions that are not renewing facility registrations.”

The Review of USMCA

With a goal of “reciprocity and balance across north America” the trade team is working on its review of the North American trade deal.

“We absolutely understand the importance of USMCA for U.S. farmers and ranchers,” Callahan says.

Describing this as a “comprehensive review” she says that spans:

Look at what is working
Maintain what is working
Improve on areas not be delivering the benefits U.S. farmers and ranchers expect

She brings up the overall trade balance with Canada and specifically, Canadian dairy.

“With Canada, we went from a $3 billion deficit in 2020 and now we have an $11 billion ag trade deficit. So there are certainly areas for improvement, and we’re taking all of our stakeholders’ comments into consideration,” Callahan says.

Why Did McDonald’s USA Invest $200 Million in Regenerative Agriculture?

Tue, 10 Feb 2026 19:03:00 GMT

In September, McDonald’s USA unveiled its largest investment in regenerative agriculture to date with the launch of the Grassland Resilience and Conservation Initiative . This public-private partnership with the National Fish and Wildlife Foundation (NFWF), USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) and key McDonald’s U.S. suppliers aims to scale regenerative grazing and conservation efforts across the U.S.

This initiative will invest more than $200 million over the next seven years to help promote and accelerate regenerative grazing practices, habitat restoration, water and wildlife conservation on cattle ranches spanning 4 million acres in up to 38 states.

“We know the natural resources that are required for the food system to thrive are under a lot of pressure, and so our desire to make our supply chain more resilient is really a business decision,” explains Audrey Leduc, McDonald’s U.S. sustainability director.

During the 2026 Top Producer Conference, Leduc shared McDonald’s has 13,000 U.S. restaurants that annually serve 90% of Americans. In 2024, McDonald’s bought 671 million pounds of beef in the U.S.

(McDonalds)

What Are the Core Objectives?

“There’s really two things that you need to think about when you’re thinking about a resilient supply chain,” Leduc says. “The first one is, you need to understand where are your vulnerabilities, and second, you need to understand where you’re having the most impact.”

The initiative is designed to bolster U.S. supply chain resilience while providing ranchers with the tools needed to:

Improve grazing management. Enhancing land productivity and soil health
Restore ecosystems. Protecting grasslands and wildlife habitats
Conserve water. Implementing practices that safeguard water resources
Upgrade infrastructure. Providing financial support for ranch improvements

Promoting and accelerating these practices benefits both the environment and ranchers and shows how large brands can help drive meaningful change in the food system.

“The benefits of grassland conservation are far-reaching,” says Jeff Trandahl, NFWF executive director and CEO. “When cattle are managed to optimize multiple ecological and economic values, the land holds more water, grows better grass and supports more wildlife. Conservation practices voluntarily adopted by ranchers can improve the productivity of grasslands, increase ranching profitability and strengthen the vitality of rural communities across the United States.”

What Are the Economic Incentives for Ranchers?

“We understand that the financial burden to move towards regenerative agriculture is often carried by the producer,” Leduc says. “And so how does big companies like McDonald’s get involved? Well, it’s with things like the grassland initiative.”

The initiative will help boost its U.S. supply chain resilience, including by providing participating ranchers economic returns such as incentive payments.

Participating ranchers will receive:

Incentive payments. Direct economic returns for adopting sustainable practices
Technical assistance. Access to resources for voluntary conservation efforts
Performance monitoring. Independent soil health quantification provided by Kateri and Carbon Yield

“We want to be good stewards of the land, and we’re putting money directly where our mouth is,” Leduc adds. “It’s a business decision to protect the beef supply chain, and we want to be accelerating and working alongside the producers.”

McDonald’s USA suppliers, including Cargill, Golden State Foods, Lopez Foods, OSI and The Coca-Cola Company, will provide funds to NFWF alongside McDonald’s USA.

Audrey Leduc, U.S. sustainability director for McDonald’s, shares the stage at the 2026 Top Producer Summit with Angie Denton, Drovers editorial leader, to talk about McDonald’s commitment to working with beef producers to source responsible beef and prioritize natural resource stewardship.

(Farm Journal)

What is the Timeline?

NFWF will manage and invest conservation funding to advance ranchers in their voluntary conservation efforts. NFWF is collaborating with its conservation partners across America’s grasslands to identify impactful landscape-scale projects that will generate the greatest possible benefits to both wildlife populations and the productivity of vital U.S. ranch lands.

NFWF will independently award competitive grants to organizations that will assist participating ranchers in adopting practices that advance wildlife conservation and regenerative agriculture. The first round of competitive grant-making will culminate in the announcement of awards, which is expected soon.

“As a brand that serves more than 90% of Americans every year, we recognize the responsibility we have to help safeguard our food systems for long-term vitality,” says Cesar Piña, McDonald’s senior vice president and chief supply chain officer, North America. “Through our support of this initiative, McDonald’s USA is demonstrating the power of partnership between the public and private sectors and that feeding the population and stewarding our natural resources can coexist.”

For additional information about the Grassland Resilience and Conservation Initiative, visit the NFWF website .

How Do Alternative Proteins Fit Into McDonald’s Plans?

“At McDonald’s, we are not pursuing alternative protein,” Leduc says. “That’s not our sustainability strategy. Our sustainability strategy is a resilient beef supply chain in the U.S.”

USDA Trade Team Returns from Malaysia with a Focus on These Key Ag Products

Fri, 16 Jan 2026 14:53:32 GMT

As a follow up to the Oct. 26, 2025, trade deal announced by President Donald Trump, the USDA trade team just returned from a recent Trade Reciprocity for U.S. Manufacturers and Producers (TRUMP) mission.

Luke Lindberg, USDA undersecretary for trade and foreign agricultural affairs, says there were good, productive meetings toward elevating the relationship between the U.S. and Malaysia, which ranks as the 26^th largest ag trade market.

“These TRUMP missions were one of the aspects of [Agriculture] Secretary [Brooke] Rollins’ and my three-point plan to really ramp up U.S. agricultural exports. So, the president’s done a tremendous job of negotiating these new agreements around the world, and our job is to get on the ground with farmers, with U.S. agribusinesses, and start to make deals happen,” Lindberg says. “The analogy I’ve been using is the president is opening the door, and it’s our job to drive a bus through it.”

The trip to Malaysia had a delegation of 16 agribusinesses and trade associations. In recent years, the biggest U.S. agricultural exports to Malaysia have been soybeans, dairy products, cotton, vegetables and nuts.

“The whole barnyard kind of came with us this time around, because one of the things that the U.S. trade representative’s team and we did with USDA and the White House was we actually got Malaysia to agree that the U.S. food system is safe, and that’s in the language of the agreement,” he says.

Of the specific categories he shared, there was progress on many fronts including:

Soybeans — In 2024, Malaysia imported almost 452 metric tons of U.S. soybeans. Lindberg says U.S. leaders met with the largest soy crush facility, and he sees opportunities for growth.
Dairy — In total for 2024, Malaysia imported $118 million in dairy products. “We’ve seen a tremendous increase in dairy access and opportunities there, 23% growth this past year for dairy,” Lindberg says.
Ethanol — “We had a great conversation around ethanol opportunities,” Lindberg says. “Malaysia is a regional distributor of fuels, and so working ethanol into the fuel supply chain that can really spread throughout the ASEAN region, a lot of good opportunities out there.”
Beef — “We visited a very successful restaurant group in Malaysia that’s been begging for U.S. beef for a long time,” Lindberg says. “They’ve actually invested in a beef processing plant in the United States to get their beef halal certified so that they’re ready to go for when the actual duties shift and the regulations come into full force.”

Lindberg says a key tenant of the trade deal is to reduce or eliminate all tariffs.

“A lot of our producer groups haven’t been able to compete on a level playing field in Malaysia in the past, and now they have that access and that opportunity,” he explains. “When our groups can compete on a level playing field, I think we win more often than we lose.”

Next steps include a Malaysian delegation visiting Washington, D.C., next week.

“We’re marching forward here with a great opportunity on the horizon. I think it’s progressing nicely,” Lindberg says. “These rapid-response missions are largely driven by building these kind of new opportunities that really didn’t exist yesterday and exist today. In the next couple months, we’ll see full implementation of the deal, and that’ll really be the access-opening opportunity for our producers.”

Looking ahead this year, Lindberg says the USDA trade team is “hyperfocused” on fixing the agricultural trade deficit. With 2026 agribusiness trade missions announced for Indonesia, Philippines, Turkey, Australia and New Zealand, Saudi Arabia, and Vietnam, he highlights time spent in Southeast Asia is a strategy to build trade in a region with growing GDP and positive consumption trends for U.S. agricultural goods.

“It’s going to be a dynamic year for U.S. trade,” Lindberg says. “I keep saying to folks: Trade agreements are great, but sales are the goal.”

These Half-Dozen U.S. Ag Trade Missions Aim To Diversify Global Demand

Wed, 31 Dec 2025 16:39:39 GMT

Trump’s USDA team has announced its agribusiness trade missions for the year ahead.

“Our team certainly plays an important role in generating demand overseas for the products,” says Luke Lindberg, USDA undersecretary for trade and foreign agricultural affairs.

Lindberg points to a three-point plan Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins’ team is deploying:

Get better trade agreements.
Build willing buyer and willing seller relationships.
Hold trading partners accountable.

According to Lindberg, the goal is it “helps to cultivate, it helps to diversify, so we’re not solely focused on one or two key buyers. I think if you go to many business owners and ask them, would you rather have one buyer that buys 80% of your products or would you rather have some diversification to lots of buyers who have ups and downs of their own, I think many of them would say they prefer the diversification model.”

So far, six agribusiness trade missions have been announced for 2026 with the goal of growing global markets, increasing exports and strengthening the agricultural economy.

The six mission destinations, and potential agricultural focus areas, include the following.

1. February 2026, Jakarta, Indonesia

Since 2020, annual U.S. ag exports to Indonesia have hovered between $2.75 billion and $3.25 billion. Overall, it’s the 11^th largest trade partner for U.S. ag goods.

Indonesia is the fourth-largest market for U.S. soybeans following China, the European Union and Mexico. According to U.S. Census Bureau trade data, in 2024 Indonesia imported from the U.S. $1.2 billion in soybeans, $198 million in wheat and $139 million in cotton. This past July, the Indonesia private sector and the U.S. wheat industry signed a memorandum committing to purchasing at least 1 million metric tons of U.S. wheat between 2026 and 2030 plus a minimum of 800,000 metric tons of wheat in 2025 (prorated).

The Trump administration has worked to address long-standing barriers to U.S. agricultural trade and expanding market access into Indonesia with a trade agreement eliminating tariffs on more than 99% of U.S. products.

2. April 2026, Manila, Philippines

U.S. ag exports to the Philippines have more than doubled since 2010. In 2024, the total value was $3.5 billion, making it the ninth-largest customer for U.S. ag trade.

With limited domestic production, the Philippines imports nearly all of its dairy products, and specifically $365 million comes from the U.S. Poultry exports to the Philippines totaled $187 million, with a majority of that in frozen chicken leg quarters.

The U.S. gained market share for ethanol imports into the Philippines, having doubled volumes in 2024 with a value of $138 million.

Beef and beef products are the sixth-largest group of ag products the Philippines imports from the U.S. This category has also experienced recent growth by increasing 58% from 2023 to 2024. The U.S. is second to Brazil in market share for beef imported into the Philippines.

In 2024, the Philippines imported $120 million of pork and pork products from the U.S. The country’s local supply has been declining because of African Swine Fever.

According to an announcement in July, the Trump administration said the Philippines will charge zero tariffs for U.S. exports into their market, while the Philippines will pay 19% tariffs to the U.S.

3. May 2026, Istanbul, Turkey

According to USDA analysis, Turkey has grown its strength as an importer of raw materials and then reexported finished products. This includes importing wheat for flour and cotton for apparel.

Because of its geographic location, Turkey has also grown as a strategic regional transshipment hub, connecting U.S. exporters with trade partners across the Caucasus region.

In September, Turkey lifted its retaliatory tariffs on some U.S. ag products: rice, tree nuts, distilled spirits and more. The Trump administration says a focus for the upcoming agribusiness trade mission will be to address nontariff barriers to trade, which includes import bans on U.S. animal protein.

4. August 2026, Australia and New Zealand

The Trump administration says its trade breakthroughs with Australia will give greater access to U.S. beef exporters. The U.S.-Australia Free Trade Agreement is structured to give comprehensive duty-free market access.

Other protein sectors have significant trade established with Australia. In 2024, $328 million worth of U.S. pork and pork products were imported. And $173 million of U.S. dairy products were brought into the country.

New Zealand imported $520 million worth of U.S. ag goods, including: soybean meal, dairy ingredients (lactose and whey), fresh fruit and distiller’s dried grains.

5. September 2026, Saudi Arabia

This agribusiness trade mission will focus on technical issues and nontariff barriers. Saudi Arabia is the 23^rd largest ag export market for the U.S., and it is a gateway to the $3 billion market for U.S. ag goods that is the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf.

Over the past 10 years, the country has increased its imports of U.S. hay by 540% to its recent total of $152 million in 2024.

Corn, tree nuts and rice are also key ag goods exported from the U.S. to Saudi Arabia, totaling $239 million, $169 million and $123 million, respectively.

6. November 2026, Vietnam

USDA says this trade mission will focus on preferential access for specialty cheese and meats as well as improved market access for U.S. peaches and nectarines.

U.S. ag exports to the country peaked in 2018 at $4 billion and in 2023 were around $3.1 billion. Ranked from highest value to smallest, the top five ag products exported from the U.S. into Vietnam in 2023 were: cotton, soybeans, distillers grains, soybean meal and tree nuts.

For meat and meat products, the key prospects include frozen/chilled beef (boneless and bone-in), frozen chicken (leg quarters, legs and paws), and turkey.

Dairy could be a growth market for U.S. exports into Vietnam as nonfat dried milk powder has led the segment to total $146 million of imports in 2023. Fresh cheese (for foodservice/restaurants) is in demand by younger generations despite not being part of a traditional diet in the country.

USDA also points to fresh fruit as a growth category for the country, namely apples, cherries and grapes.

Normal La Niña Pattern to Return By Thanksgiving

Tue, 18 Nov 2025 21:47:22 GMT

What are the primary weather events being watched by the leading ag meteorologists right now? Here’s a round-up.

A Bit of an Oddball La Niña

“We need to be really careful about making big assumptions about this La Niña. It is not a classic La Niña,” says Drew Lerner, World Weather, Inc. He points to two large rain events in the southern U.S. Plains this past week.

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey adds southern California has also received a lot of precipitation. He says it’s the timing and strength of the La Niña bringing a different pattern than could be expected.

“The big thing we’re watching is the fact that we’re in a La Niña during the month of September for the fifth time in six years,” Rippey says. “And with that, November’s been a little bit strange so far. We haven’t fully kicked into what you would expect to see with a La Niña regime.”

More Precipitation on Its Way

“We also have a lot of warm ocean water between Hawaii and California, so watch for more heavy rain, like we saw this week coming into California a little later in the winter,” Lerner says.

Rippey says people across the Great Plains can expect more storms through this week.

“Given the fact that we are heading into a La Niña winter, we need the moisture across the southern Plains now,” Rippey says. “It looks like more of a La Niña regime setting in for the latter part of November and certainly by Thanksgiving. By that I mean stormier, colder weather across the north, and some of that warm and dry weather should become more established across the South. It’ll be a while until we get there.”

The week of Thanksgiving is showing some increased chance for winter storms and perhaps travel-impactful weather events.

Droughty Conditions Bring Concerns

Dry weather persists in key grazing areas, which Matt Makens from Makens Weather says is his biggest concern for the rest of this year and early into 2026.

Lerner adds: “The northern Plains and neighboring areas of Canada’s prairies won’t see much precipitation. There’s still a big, bad drought up there, and they’re hoping for better moisture. But in the meantime, our wheat that’s in the soft wheat that’s in the lower Midwest bowl will get a nice drink of water.”

Pacific Storm Season Brought More Action Than the Atlantic

Reflecting on the ongoing hurricane season, Rippey says while it was indicated we could have an active season, there have been only 13 named storms and only five hurricanes.

Without any major storms making landfall in the U.S., Rippey points to a few factors:

“We had the African feeder storms, the thunderstorms that come off the African coast, came off a little further north than they normally would. And that put some of those thunderstorm complexes into a more hostile environment as they developed or tried to develop,” he says.
“We had a protective jet stream across the eastern United States, a little dip along the East Coast of the United States that really forced any developing storms to recurve before they ever reach the United States,” he says.

“A lot of that moisture ended up in the western United States eventually, remnant tropical moisture, and that certainly has helped to chip away at the drought across the western United States, courtesy of the active eastern Pacific season with 18 overall named storms,” Rippey adds.

Planting Season Outlook

While planting season is about five months away for many, the weather trends are tipping the scales to a slow start.

“I still have some confidence in saying that some of the northern areas of the country — northern plains, upper Midwest — could face a spring with a delayed warm-up,” Rippey says. “We could see some snowy cold conditions lingering into the early to mid-spring across some of those northern production areas. Typically coming out of La Niña, we do see a later planting season in the north, and we will have to watch drought in the south.”

La Niña Will Flip to El Niño

As for what’s ahead in the new year, Maken says while we might start with a La Niña, toward the end of the year, we’ll flip into an El Niño.

“And when you do this flip, it depends on how quickly it flips, because it can mean a lot of rainfall for a lot of folks,” he says. “And not that La Niña and El Niño are the end-all, be-alls, but they’re the major players in the room. Some really like hearing El Niño. Others really do not like the person saying that.”

White House Drops Reciprocal Tariffs on Fertilizer, Other Ag Products Not Produced in the U.S.

Fri, 14 Nov 2025 23:50:06 GMT

President Trump signed an Executive Order Friday afternoon that modifies the scope of the reciprocal tariffs he first announced on April 2, 2025. The Executive Order now exempts several agricultural products from tariffs, including fruit, coffee and fertilizer.

In a fact sheet released Nov. 14, 2025, the administration says President Trump has determined that “certain qualifying agricultural products will no longer be subject to those tariffs, such as certain food not grown in the United States.”

This is good news for farmers, as certain qualifying agricultural products will no longer be subject to those tariffs, including fertilizer. However, the announcement could open the door for more beef imports, as the move also gets rid of reciprocal tariffs on beef.

The document goes on to spell out examples of products that are now exempt from the reciprocal tariffs. According to the fact sheet, “The President has thus determined that certain agricultural products shall no longer be subject to the reciprocal tariffs.”

Some of these products include:

coffee and tea
tropical fruits and fruit juices
cocoa and spices
bananas, oranges and tomatoes
beef
additional fertilizers (some fertilizers have never been subject to the reciprocal tariffs).

“I have received additional information and recommendations from various officials who, pursuant to my direction, have been monitoring the circumstances involving the emergency declared in Executive Order 14257,” stated the Executive Order. “After considering the information and recommendations these officials have provided to me, the status of negotiations with various trading partners, current domestic demand for certain products, and current domestic capacity to produce certain products, among other things, I have determined that it is necessary and appropriate to further modify the scope of products subject to the reciprocal tariff imposed under Executive Order 14257, as amended.”

President Defends Tariff Strategy, Says It’s Working

In the fact sheet, the White House went on to defend the reciprocal tariffs.

“In less than one year into his second term, President Trump has strengthened the international economic position of the United States by delivering a series of historic wins for the American people,” the fact sheet states.

The White House says through these tariffs, “President Trump is bringing manufacturing jobs back to America, revitalizing communities, and strengthening supply chains.The Administration will continue to use all available tools to protect our national security, advance our economic interests, and uphold a system of trade based in fairness and reciprocity.”

You can read the entire fact sheet here.

Beef Industry Chaos: Tight Supplies, Strong Consumer Demand and Political Interference

Thu, 13 Nov 2025 19:42:19 GMT

The current state of the cattle market and beef industry has been described as chaotic. “There’s chaos in cattle,” as Chip Flory, AgriTalk host, put it.

The industry turmoil follows recent statements made by President Donald Trump regarding the need to lower beef prices as well as his request for the Department of Justice to immediately begin an investigation into meatpackers for driving up the price of beef.

Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist from Oklahoma State University, affirms these are unique times, emphasizing while political factors have always indirectly influenced agriculture, it’s unprecedented for the cattle and beef markets to be at the center of direct political debate.

On a recent AgriTalk segment, Peel points out the inherent biological and production constraints of the cattle industry — particularly the fixed timeline to raise cattle — make quick fixes impossible. Both Flory and Peel stress that no political policy can shorten the cattle production process; any effective supply response requires patience and long-term adjustment.

Packers Under Fire

The concept of industry consolidation and foreign packer ownership has long drawn scrutiny with frequent government investigations. Peel says highly concentrated industries such as beef packing have been targets for skepticism and regulatory attention for over a century, to the point suspicion of packers is almost “a cultural thing” within segments of the industry.

He characterizes the latest call as another attempt to target convenient scapegoats rather than addressing deeper systemic realities of supply and demand.

“The reason we have the industry structure we do is because the economies of size and cost efficiencies are such a powerful economic force,” Peels explains.

He confirms researchers have long studied market power, and while concentration does have a small negative price impact for producers, the efficiency and cost-savings from large-scale firms more than compensate. These benefits, he says, keep cattle prices higher for producers and beef prices lower for consumers than they would be with a less efficient structure.

Dissecting the economics of margin markets Peels explains why price changes in different parts of the beef supply chain — cow-calf, feeders, packers and retailers — don’t move in lockstep. He uses a “bungee cord” analogy to illustrate the complex, dynamic and time-lagged interactions linking cattle prices at the farm with retail beef prices.

“All cattle prices and beef prices are ultimately connected, but they’re not connected with a stick or a chain,” Peel summarizes.” They’re connected with a bungee cord. There’s just an enormous amount of dynamics in this thing.”

Regarding the foreign ownership debate, Peel says there is no evidence foreign ownership alters packer behavior within the U.S. marketplace. He emphasizes foreign firms have made large investments in U.S. facilities and continue to operate them by the same market logic that would govern domestic ownership.

He also points out it is unclear who else would be in a position to make such significant investments if these foreign companies were not involved. This pragmatic view suggests the ownership issue might be less important than is commonly believed, at least concerning everyday operations and market outcomes.

A Lot Hinges on Rebuilding the Cow Herd

In his latest article, “ All Bets are Off ,” Peel says: “The latest edition in the torrent of recent political attentions directed at the cattle and beef industry includes allegations of market manipulation against the beef packing industry. Beef packers are the one segment that has been most negatively impacted in the current market, incurring huge losses due to poor margins and limited cattle supplies.”

(Meat Institute)

Peel reports packers have been losing enormous amounts of money for about the past 18 to 24 months. According to the Meat Institute, packer margins slipped into the red in September 2024. Through the week ending Oct. 4, 2025, packer margins were a negative $126.50 per head, up slightly from a year earlier at a negative $125.65 per head, according to Sterling Profit Tracker. The outlook for the year is a negative $165.96 per head packer margin.

“There’s just simply not enough cattle for them to operate at cost efficient capacities,” Peel explains.

This negative trend was anticipated — the reduced supply of cattle has made it difficult for packing plants to function at cost-efficient capacities, leading to the accumulation of operating losses. Peel points out the combination of low unit margins and insufficient cattle supplies challenges the economic viability of packers, further illustrating the complexity of the current environment.

This decline in inventory is not the result of a single factor but is driven by several years of drought and other market pressures. It is clear high beef and cattle prices are a result of these tight supplies and, according to Peel, these high prices are likely to persist for several years. The industry simply cannot turn around production levels quickly, and it will take time — a matter of years, not months — for conditions to normalize.

“Using logic that only works in the office of a politician, packers are supposedly wielding unacceptable market power while paying record high cattle prices and artificially raising beef prices … but not enough to avoid losing a couple hundred dollars on every animal they process — certainly many millions of dollars,” Peel says. “If beef packers had any significant ability to exercise market power, I am certain that we would not have record high cattle prices and packers would not be losing money.”

Peel suggests the federal government attacks on beef packers are aided and supported by a vocal minority of the cattle industry and a few sympathetic politicians who view packers as a perennial villain and always worthy of attack anytime the opportunity is presented.

“The timing of such attacks this time is particularly puzzling as dismantling the packing industry would certainly jeopardize current record high cattle prices and the best economic returns most producers have ever enjoyed,” Peels says. “I guess some cowboys just can’t stand prosperity.”

R-CALF CEO Bill Bullard says the cattle market is fundamentally broken citing years of an inverse relationship between falling cattle prices and increasing retail beef prices when the only ingredient in beef is cattle. Read more about his perspective.

Patience not Politics

Beef and cattle prices, Peel notes, are historically high, a result of industry-wide low cattle inventory. Rebuilding the nation’s cow herd will be a long, slow process, keeping prices elevated for an extended period. And Peel says there is no definitive evidence producers are saving heifers to start the rebuilding process.

“2025 may prove to be technically the cyclical low, but 2026 is going to be barely bigger, if it is, and no growth in 2026 and probably none in 2027 ... it’s 2028 into 2029 before that turns into increased beef production,” Peel predicts.

He summarizes neither regulatory nor political action will can speed up the rebuilding process. It will take years of concerted effort, market healing and stability before the industry can expect a meaningful rebound in herd numbers and production — a reality that requires patience across the industry.

“There is absolutely nothing anybody can do to make beef prices go down, or cattle prices, other than maybe tear up the industry completely,” Peels says. “And if we tear up the industry, it’ll make cattle prices go down, but it won’t make beef prices go down. It’ll make beef prices go even higher for consumers and the only way to fix this is to give the industry time to rebuild, and that’s going to take two to four years if we ever get started.”

He says a majority of cattle producers understand the beef industry is extremely complex and all segments are critical and essential.

“Though the outcome of current political actions is uncertain, the potential for long-term harm to the industry is substantial,” Peel says. “Anytime politics trumps economics, the strong supply and demand fundamentals that have determined the outlook for the industry to this point become irrelevant. Expectations for prices and production going forward are now completely clouded…therefore… all bets are off.”

Your Next Read: You Be The Judge: The Big Bad Beef Packers Are On Trial

'The System Is Failing Us:' Why Real Change is Needed in U.S. Agriculture

Wed, 29 Oct 2025 13:57:31 GMT

Joe Maxwell doesn’t pull punches — especially on the topic of the future of American agriculture.

“The system is failing us,” says Maxwell, co-founder of Farm Action , during a recent episode of “Unscripted.” “It’s failing the people. It’s failing family farmers and ranchers. And it’s failing consumers. We can’t keep pretending everything’s fine.”

The Missouri farmer and former lieutenant governor shares an uncomfortable truth: The economic model that has shaped U.S. agriculture no longer works for those producing America’s food.

Commodity prices remain under pressure, input costs stay stubbornly high and government payments — while keeping some farms afloat — often mask deeper structural problems.

“We’re on this hamster wheel,” Maxwell says. “Government sends out a bailout, input companies raise prices and the money flows right back up to them. We think we’re being helped, but really, we’re just passing the money through.”

From Missouri Roots to National Reform

Maxwell grew up on a family farm in Missouri and lived through the 1980s farm crisis. That experience shapes his conviction that policy, not luck, determines who survives in agriculture.

That belief lead him and Ohio farmer Angela Huffman to co-found Farm Action, a nonprofit working to “connect the dots” between policy decisions, corporate consolidation and on-farm economics.

“We see a need for a farm organization that looks up and down the entire food chain,” Maxwell explains. “Everyone’s focused on one part of the system — fertilizer here, seed prices there, meatpacking somewhere else — but no one connects them. Farm Action connects those dots and pushes for policy that works for independent producers again.”

“We Don’t Feed the World Anymore”

Maxwell challenges one of agriculture’s most familiar slogans.

“Let’s be honest — we don’t feed the world anymore,” he says. “We import 60% of our fruit, over a third of our vegetables and record amounts of beef. We have a $47 billion agricultural trade deficit. The world is starting to feed us.”

He argues that U.S. farm policy has become overly dependent on exports of feed and fuel crops, while overlooking food crops and livestock production that directly feed Americans. Maxwell calls for farm programs that reward food production rather than commodity production.

“Every year we lose up to 1.8 million acres of pasture to row crops,” he notes. “That’s a failure of policy. We make it easier and more profitable to grow corn for fuel than to raise beef or vegetables for food. That’s not national security — that’s national vulnerability.”

“Let’s quit lying to ourselves. We don’t feed the world anymore — the world is beginning to feed us.”— Joe Maxwell, Farm Action

The Growing Grip of Consolidation

Maxwell points to consolidation as the most dangerous — and least understood — threat facing independent producers. From fertilizer and seed to meatpacking and grocery shelves, he says control has concentrated into the hands of just a few corporations.

“The power dynamic in agriculture has flipped,” Maxwell explains. “Farmers used to have leverage. Now, a handful of companies control nearly every input we need to farm — and they set the prices we pay. Then they control the markets we sell into, and they set those prices, too. That’s not a free market — that’s corporate feudalism.”

He points to Farm Action’s Concentration Tracker, a public data hub that compiles market share information across the food system. It shows that:

Four companies control over 80% of beef processing.
Two companies dominate more than 75% of corn seed genetics.
Three firms hold the majority of fertilizer production capacity.
The top five grocery chains now capture nearly 65% of all food retail sales.

“When just a few players hold that kind of power, they don’t compete — they coordinate,” Maxwell says. “They can raise input costs and suppress farmgate prices, and farmers have no real alternative. That’s why our concentration tracker matters — it exposes what’s really happening behind the curtain.”

The problem, he says, isn’t just economic — it’s political.

“These corporations have so much money and influence they shape farm policy to fit their own balance sheets,” Maxwell adds. “When we go to Washington asking for help, they’re already there, writing the rules. Until we restore fair competition and transparency, every bailout, every policy tweak is just feeding the beast.”

Farm Action’s data shows concentration doesn’t just hurt farmers — it hurts consumers, too. From fertilizer to feed to food, fewer companies mean higher costs for everyone.

“You see it every time you go to the grocery store,” Maxwell says. “Beef prices are high, but cattlemen aren’t seeing that profit. Fertilizer prices spike, but farmers don’t control the market. Consumers pay more, farmers earn less, and the middle consolidates the wealth. That’s not sustainable for anybody.”

It’s a concept gaining national traction. Just this week, the Senate Judiciary Committee held a hearing on the soaring costs of inputs.

Sen. Charles Grassley (R-Iowa) also introduced legislation to address the rising costs of inputs, called the Fertilizer Research Act . But the hearing brought together the larger issue of rising costs across the board for farmers.

“This hearing is focused on competition issues. However, there is something that the Trump administration can do right now to help ease the burden for farmers: lowering the countervailing duties on phosphate from Morocco. In 2024, the Biden administration increased duties on Moroccan phosphate to 18%,” said Grassley in his opening statement. “The Biden phosphate duties have only hurt farmers by boxing out access to this important market on an essential input with no substitute. I’m calling on the Trump administration to help American farmers and get rid of the Biden phosphate duties.”

The Beef Debate: “We’re Blindsided”

For ranchers, the issue of consolidation has long been a point of contention. But recent comments by President Trump sparked a renewed push for change and a probe into who and what really controls the prices consumers are paying.

When the White House signaled it will allow more beef imports from Argentina , Maxwell says many ranchers feel blindsided.

“Our cattle herd is at a 70-year low,” he says. “Ranchers finally see light at the end of the tunnel — and then Washington steps in to import more beef. That’s not just a policy mistake, it’s a psychological one.”

He argues that the frustration isn’t only about imports; it’s about the perception that the administration doesn’t understand the complexity of the cattle market.

“Cattle producers don’t set the price they’re paid — packers do,” Maxwell explains. “So when the president talks about lowering prices for consumers without addressing packer control, he’s aiming at the wrong target.”

“We’re finally seeing the light of day. Then government puts its hand back on our backs.”— Joe Maxwell on the U.S. cattle market

“It’s Time for DOJ to Step In”: Why the Beef Industry Needs an Investigation

He says instead of the Trump administration focusing on cattle prices, Farm Action thinks what happened in the egg industry during past price spikes is exactly what needs to happen now in beef: a full federal investigation.

“Two companies control 90% of hatcheries in the U.S. egg industry,” Maxwell explains. “When egg prices exploded, Farm Action presented evidence to the Department of Justice showing that those companies were profiting at historic levels while blaming avian flu. And you know what happened? DOJ opened an investigation. That’s what accountability looks like.”

Now, he says, the same pattern is playing out in beef.

“We’ve already seen price-fixing cases in the cattle sector,” he says. “Two of the major packers admitted it back in 2019. We shouldn’t have to spend years in court to prove what every rancher already knows — that a handful of companies are manipulating the market.”

The so-called “Big Four” — Tyson Foods, JBS, Cargill, and National Beef (controlled by Brazil-based Marfrig) — control roughly 85% of U.S. beef processing capacity. That concentration, Maxwell argues, allows them to influence both the price paid to producers and the price charged to consumers.

“It’s an abusive system,” Maxwell says. “They squeeze ranchers on one end and shoppers on the other, and everyone in between gets caught in the middle. The packers are the only ones guaranteed to make money, no matter what happens to the market.”

He calls for the Department of Justice to launch a new, comprehensive investigation into price manipulation and anti-competitive behavior within the beef industry — similar to what Farm Action pushed for with eggs.

“We need DOJ to do in beef what it finally did in eggs,” he says. “Follow the money, follow the profits, and hold these corporations accountable. Because right now, the people who produce our beef — the ranchers who’ve weathered drought, inflation, and decades of consolidation — are getting crushed while multinational packers report record margins.”

Maxwell says the Biden administration has taken small steps, but much more needs to be done.

“It’s not enough to tinker at the edges,” he warns. “We need enforcement — real enforcement — of the Packers and Stockyards Act, the Sherman Act, the Clayton Act. The laws are already on the books. What’s missing is the will to use them.”

Country-of-Origin Labeling: A “No-Brainer”

Maxwell says Farm Action is pushing hard for mandatory Country of Origin Labeling (M-COOL) as part of the upcoming USMCA review in 2026.

“Consumers deserve to know where their beef comes from,” he insists. “The president could fix this tomorrow by negotiating M-COOL into the trade deal. That one move would give American ranchers a fair shot.”

He dismisses claims that M-COOL violates WTO rules.

“WTO is dead in the water,” Maxwell argues. “There’s no functioning tribunal to even hear a case. The only people fighting this are the packers — JBS, Tyson, Cargill, Marfrig — because they profit when foreign beef gets a U.S. label.”

Structural Change, Not Another Bailout
When asked whether Farm Action supports another round of USDA bailouts for struggling producers, Maxwell doesn’t hesitate.

“We recognize farmers are in crisis,” he says. “We don’t want to see our neighbors driven off the farm. But we can’t just keep sending out checks without fixing the system. One day those bailouts won’t come, and then it’ll look just like the 1980s. We have to demand structural change.”

Those changes, he says, should include:

Capping farm subsidies to slow consolidation.
Rebalancing insurance and incentive programs toward food production.
Rebuilding local and regional processing capacity to compete with the “Big Four” packers who control 80–85% of the cattle market.
Stronger enforcement of antitrust laws like the Packers and Stockyards Act and the Sherman Act.

Rebuilding from the Ground Up

Despite his criticism, Maxwell frames his message as one of hope — if farmers and ranchers take the lead.

“We can’t sit back and wait for Washington to fix this,” he says. “We have to step up, be part of the conversation, and demand policies that keep family farms in business.”

He supports Rep. Thomas Massie’s Prime Act, which would expand small-scale meat processing and let states regulate local slaughterhouses directly.

“We’ve got the infrastructure,” Maxwell adds. “We just need to give it life again. Let’s rebuild local processing so farmers can sell directly to consumers and keep value in their communities.”

Why It Matters Now

Fresh data from the Farm Journal Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor shows that 76% of agricultural economists expect conditions to persist or worsen over the next year. Many see echoes of the 1980s — though they warn today’s crisis is more complex.

“It’s not the 1980s all over again,” says Unscripted host Tyne Morgan. “But the pain is real. Economists say the situation could worsen in 2026 if structural issues aren’t addressed. That’s what makes conversations like this so important.”

A Call to Action

As the conversation wraps up, Maxwell’s tone shifts from urgency to determination. His message to rural America is both a warning and an invitation.

“We have to lead,” he says, pausing before adding, “because no one else is going to do it for us.”

He says the future of U.S. agriculture depends on whether farmers choose to engage in these hard conversations — the ones about fairness, policy, and the future of independent family farms.

“Look, we can’t afford to sit on the sidelines and hope someone in Washington suddenly understands our way of life,” Maxwell says. “Every farmer, every rancher, every person who believes in feeding people instead of feeding systems has a role to play. It starts at the local level — showing up, speaking up, refusing to accept that the current model is the only way forward.”He continues:

“This isn’t about right or left, or about politics at all. It’s about survival — for the people who feed this country. We can’t keep patching the same broken system and expecting it to serve us. If we want a food system that’s fair, resilient, and rooted in our rural communities, we’ve got to build it ourselves, together. That’s the hard truth — and the hopeful one.”

Maxwell’s words linger long after the conversation ends — a challenge, but also a call for courage. Change, he insists, isn’t something that happens to farmers. It’s something that must happen through them.

Listen to the Full Conversation

Listen to the full interview: “Unscripted” with Tyne Morgan and Clinton Griffiths featuring Joe Maxwell, a vailable on Farm Journal’s YouTube channel and anywhere you stream podcasts.

'Everything’s a Game of 3D Chess': The Real Reason Behind U.S. Ties to Argentina

Fri, 24 Oct 2025 19:32:25 GMT

The U.S. is tightening ties with Argentina, and that’s raising eyebrows across farm country.

From a $20 billion bailout to plans to import Argentine beef, farmers and ranchers say the growing alliance feels like it’s coming at the expense of U.S. agriculture.

But according to Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist with StoneX, there’s more to this story, and it has everything to do with China .

A Geopolitical Chess Match

“Everything’s a game of 3D chess,” Suderman explains. “At the center of it is China.”

For years, China has been strengthening ties with Argentina, investing heavily in infrastructure and agriculture to secure long-term supply lines and influence. Suderman says the U.S. sees an opportunity to pull Argentina away from Beijing’s orbit, using economic incentives to win its allegiance.

“The White House sees this as a way to create a split between Argentina and China,” Suderman says. “It’s not just about soybeans or beef. It’s about global positioning.”

The Beef Backlash

But for cattle producers, that strategy feels like betrayal. President Donald Trump’s recent talk of importing Argentine beef sparked anger across rural America. Many worry increasing imports will undercut domestic markets.

Suderman urges producers to stay calm. He points out the announced beef imports, around 80,000 metric tons, are only equal to about two day’s worth of U.S. beef production.

“It’s not enough to impact prices,” he says, “but it does show a disconnect between Washington and agriculture.”

He adds that advisers to the president might have misunderstood how ag markets work.

“These aren’t controlled industries like pharmaceuticals,” Suderman notes. “Ag markets are driven by supply and demand, and right now, we have record demand with tight supply.”

Soybean Farmers Feel Left Behind

While beef producers protest, soybean farmers are already bruised. Argentina’s temporary suspension of export taxes earlier in the year allowed them to undercut U.S. prices and quickly sell beans to China — a major blow to American growers. Suderman says it’s a reminder that the U.S. is no longer the world’s low-cost soybean producer.

“Argentina and Brazil have a cheaper currency and lower costs,” he explains. “And China has been investing there for decades.”

Suderman says he’s been warning the industry for years that the U.S. would eventually lose China as its top soybean buyer.

“This didn’t happen overnight,” Suderman says. “China has been building toward this for 20 years. The current administration may have sped it up, but it was coming.”

Beijing’s refusal to buy American and its pivot to Brazil could be less about economics and more to do with politics. “It’s a calculated decision about control and national leverage, not about getting the cheapest beans,” says one ag economist. Read more here.

Caught in a Bigger Battle

Beyond agriculture, Suderman says the real fight isn’t over soybeans — it’s over rare earth minerals. China currently controls about 90% of the world’s processed rare earths, which are essential to making electronics and advanced defense systems.

“That’s the real leverage,” he says. “Soybeans are small compared to the rare earth battle.”

The Trump administration is now trying to expand domestic rare earth supply chains, sourcing from Australia, Greenland and even within the U.S. But Suderman says it could take two to three years before those efforts meet national defense and economic needs.

What Farmers Need to Know

To many farmers, Washington’s global strategy feels like it’s coming at their expense. While the administration is playing the long game with China, rural America is paying the short-term price. Still, Suderman sees opportunity ahead if the U.S. can continue developing new markets, strengthen biofuel demand and tap into growing trade opportunities in Africa and beyond.

“We weren’t ready to give up China,” he admits, “but we need to look forward not backward.”

Beef Producers React to USDA's Plan to Fortify Industry and Trump's Social Media Comments

Thu, 23 Oct 2025 16:03:10 GMT

In an effort to strengthen the American beef industry and reinforce and prioritize the rancher’s critical role in national security, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins and other cabinet members announced a suite of actions on Wednesday.

Since 2017, the U.S. has lost over 17% of family farms — more than 100,000 operations over the last decade. The national herd is at a 75-year low while consumer demand for beef has grown 9% over the past decade. Because increasing the size of the domestic herd takes time, USDA says it is investing now to make these markets less volatile for ranchers over the long term and more affordable for consumers.

“America’s food supply chain is a national security priority for the Trump Administration. We are committed to ensuring the American people have an affordable source of protein and that America’s ranchers have a strong economic environment where they can continue to operate for generations to come,” Rollins says in a press release . “At USDA we are protecting our beef industry and incentivizing new ranchers to take up the noble vocation of ranching. Today, USDA will immediately expedite deregulatory reforms, boost processing capacity, including getting more locally raised beef into schools, and working across the government to fix longstanding common-sense barriers for ranchers like outdated grazing restrictions.”

The plan includes three coordinated priorities:

Protecting and improving the business of ranching
- Strengthening the foundation of U.S. cattle production through endangered species reforms, enhanced disaster relief, increased grazing access (approximately 5 million acres), increased access to capital, and affordable risk management tools.
Expanding processing, consumer transparency and market access.
- Lowering long-term costs by cutting inspection costs by up to 75% for small processors, increasing marketing options for consumers with Product of USA labeling and ensuring consumers have clear, truthful information about American beef.
Building demand alongside domestic supply
- Growing the domestic herd while boosting domestic and international demand so that ranchers are not trapped in the boom/bust cycle that has defined past cattle markets. This strategy includes boosting long-term demand to reduce prices for consumers while growing markets for ranchers through significant farm-to-school grans and protein-focused dietary guidelines.

The plan is available through the USDA website.

Trump Takes to Social on Beef

President Donald Trump shared his perspective on beef industry success on X.

“The Cattle Ranchers, who I love, don’t understand that the only reason they are doing so well, for the first time in decades, is because I put Tariffs on cattle coming into the United States, including a 50% tariff on Brazil,” Trump posted.

Following the post, the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA) made a post on Facebook in response and also released a statement on the president’s steps to undercut U.S. cattle producers:

“In a misguided effort to lower the price of beef in grocery stores, President Trump said he plans to increase the volume of beef being imported from Argentina. Efforts to manipulate markets only risk damaging the livelihoods of American cattlemen and women, while doing little to impact the price consumers are paying at the grocery store.”

“The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association and its members cannot stand behind the President while he undercuts the future of family farmers and ranchers by importing Argentinian beef in an attempt to influence prices,” said NCBA CEO Colin Woodall. “It is imperative that President Trump and Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins let the cattle markets work.”

”The U.S. already faces a deep trade imbalance with Argentina, one that is made worse by the President’s plan. During the past five years, Argentina has shipped beef valued at more than $800 million to the U.S., while purchasing only $7 million of U.S. beef. Furthermore, Argentina is a nation with a long history of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), and USDA has not completed the necessary steps to ensure Argentina can guarantee the safety of the products being shipped here, further endangering America’s cattle herd.

“If President Trump is truly an ally of America’s cattle producers, we call on him to abandon this effort to manipulate markets and focus instead on the promised New World Screwworm facilities in Texas; making additional investments that protect the domestic cattle herd from foreign animal diseases such as FMD; and addressing regulatory burdens, such as delisting of the gray wolf and addressing the scourge of black vultures,” Woodall said, concluding the statement.

Your Next Read: Is Argentina Beef the Answer to Lowering Beef Prices?

USDA Has No Plans for Financial Incentives to Rebuild Cattle Herd

Fri, 26 Sep 2025 16:10:55 GMT

Colin Woodall, CEO of the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA), says currently USDA does not have plans for an incentive program to help rebuild the beef cow herd.

Woodall joined Farm Journal’s Chip Flory on “AgriTalk” Sept. 25. He was quick to dispel the idea of a herd rebuilding or replacement heifer incentive program.

“There is no financial incentive program,” he says. “Regardless of what you’ve heard, or who you have heard it from, that program does not exist.”

Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins mentioned a potential incentive program in a news release on Sept. 21 .

“In addition, USDA will soon release a significant plan to help rebuild the American cattle supply, incentivizing our great ranchers, and driving a full-scale revitalization of the American beef industry,” the release said.

Woodall explains how quickly the statement in the press release spread, noting it “lit like a grass fire” throughout the cattle industry and markets.

He points out that while Rollins’ team has been in contact with NCBA about potential support for cattle producers, a direct financial incentive is not part of their current plans.

“You can never rule out what the federal government might do,” Woodall says, but also emphasizes that based on current conversations, no immediate program is forthcoming.

Woodall suggests alternatives might include “rolling back some regulations” and making it “easier on cattle producers from a regulatory burden standpoint.”

A concern for Woodall is the potential market impact of an incentive. He says the NCBA team has specifically visited with Rollins’ team about how comments like an incentive program to rebuild the cow herd can have a significant market impact.

He was clear NCBA is not advocating for a financial incentive program, saying: “This is not something that NCBA is pushing for. It’s not something that we are endorsing.”

Thursday, Rollins was in Kansas City at the Ag Outlook Forum hosted by the Agricultural Business Council of Kansas City. During her comments she said because the cattle industry has seen a big drop in producers over the last decade USDA is committed to rebuilding it.

“Low inventory and high demand is not sustainable if we want to feed ourselves,” Rollins says.

She did announce there is no current plan to offer payments to beef producers.

“No plan for direct payments is even under consideration,” she explains. “The government getting involved in markets can easily mess things up.”

The plan will focus more on risk-mitigation tools and hope to attract the new generation of farmers to enter the cattle industry. She says more details will come in mid-October.

Your Next Read: The Battle at the Border

ADM, Alltech Unveil North American Animal Feed Joint Venture

Wed, 24 Sep 2025 14:20:05 GMT

ADM and Alltech have signed a definitive agreement to launch a North American animal feed joint venture, bringing together decades of experience and unparalleled capabilities to create new advantages for customers, the companies announced on Sept. 23.

“The first company name I can remember, besides our own, is ADM — a name I’ve heard since I was 3 years old, and likely even earlier,” Mark Lyons, president and CEO at Alltech, announced on LinkedIn . “My father’s very first order — and his second, for those who know the story of Alltech’s beginnings — came from ADM. That early vote of confidence helped shape our story. Over the decades, the relationship between our two companies has only grown stronger. We’ve long explored ways to partner more deeply, and now the time is right to align our passionate teams, proven products and shared values.”

Alltech will contribute its U.S.-based Hubbard Feeds and Canada-based Masterfeeds businesses, including 18 feed mills in the U.S and 15 in Canada, and ADM will contribute its 11 U.S. feed mills. The joint venture will be majority-owned by Alltech and governed by a board with equal representation from each parent company.

“This partnership combines the complementary strengths of our businesses — the expertise of our people, extensive manufacturing capabilities, trusted product portfolios and deep knowledge of nutrition science,” Lyons wrote. “Together, we are building something greater than the sum of its parts, with the shared goal of advancing animal nutrition and delivering our customers every advantage.”

As the animal nutrition industry continues to reshape itself to support a growing global population, Alltech and ADM will bring together passionate teams, proven products and shared values to ensure enhanced advantages for our customers, the companies said. They plan on evolving with purpose to offer an industry-leading range of products and solutions for livestock, equine, backyard and leisure animals.

“By joining forces, we can offer more than we ever could alone: broader capabilities, practical solutions and an uncompromising commitment to our customers’ success,” Lyons wrote. “This is a milestone moment — one that sets the stage for the continued growth of our North America feed business and enhances the advantage we can deliver to those we serve.”

The venture will be supported and strengthened by the parent companies’ leading-edge technology and R&D, broad logistical capabilities, and connections across the broader ag and feed value chains.

Alltech will retain its Ridley Block Operations, Ridley Feed Ingredients and Alltech specialty ingredients, although these business units will be partners and suppliers to the joint venture. ADM’s Canadian locations will remain with ADM, as will its U.S. premix and additive businesses, though those capabilities and products will help supply the new company.

The companies expect to complete the transaction and formally launch the joint venture in the first quarter of 2026.

Are We Seeing Signs of Herd Rebuilding?

Mon, 15 Sep 2025 13:46:26 GMT

The U.S. beef cow inventory has reached its lowest point since 1962, marking what appears to be the bottom of the current cattle cycle. Tight supply is driving the strong pricing environment beef producers are enjoying today.

“For cow-calf producers right now, things are as good as they’ve probably ever been,” says Troy Rowan, University of Tennessee assistant professor. “Even though things are really good, producers are conscientious and vigilant about potential challenges,” Rowan summarizes.

Agreeing with Rowan, South Dakota cattleman Ken Odde adds while profits are currently strong, inflation quickly erodes economic gains. He stresses the importance of risk management and diversification.

Early Signs of Herd Rebuilding?

This is the million-dollar question: Are there encouraging signs of expansion?

“The beef industry is not currently in herd expansion mode, with producers hesitant to retain heifers due to high costs and economic uncertainties,” says Dave Weaber, Terrain senior animal protein analyst.

In Drovers State of Industry Report to be released the week of Sept. 15, we breakdown the July USDA cattle inventory and cattle on feed reports. While the USDA reports showed the smallest U.S. herd in history and continuing tightening numbers on feed, analysts predict producers have not experienced the highest cattle prices, yet.

“Our national herd size has the industry at an interesting point,” Rowan says. “Prices are at all-time highs, inputs are reasonable and more cow-calf enterprises are profitable than ever. When the industrywide rebuild will happen remains up in the air, but producers are keeping in mind that the high-flying industry right now is not going to stick around forever. They’re starting to adopt new technologies, leveling up their crossbreeding programs and expand opportunities for non-cattle related income on their ranches.”

Weaber adds producers need to be intentional about herd expansion, understanding the financial implications of adding new cattle.

Beef-on-Dairy Fills the Beef Supply Gap

“The current dynamics of supply is going to be a challenge,” says Jarrod Gillig, Cargill senior vice president, managing director for beef.

Gillig summarizes the cattle industry is experiencing a critical period of transition. He doesn’t expect the cow herd to return to previous peak levels of 32 million head. Instead, he predicts the gap in supply will be filled by beef-on-dairy calves.

Nick Hardcastle, Cargill senior director of meat grading and technical specialist, explains how the beef-on-dairy calves are an upgrade to the traditional Holstein steer and the positive impact they are making on beef supply.

“Beef-on-dairy is more desirable because it helped overcome several Holstein difficulties,” he says. “Improvements include red meat yield — more meat to a consumer — as well as improved acceptance in branded programs.”

Hardcastle says the beef-on-dairy cattle are filling the supply gap by filling pens in the Plains states where feeders are needed, and they are widely accepted by feeders and packers.

Defining Future Beef Producer Success

Odde says the beef industry is not just surviving but positioning itself for significant transformation.

“Producers who remain flexible, technologically savvy and strategic in their approach will be best positioned to thrive in this changing environment,” he says.

Weaber agrees saying successful producers will be those who can adapt, manage costs effectively and align themselves with evolving market trends.

“Don’t let cost get away from you,” Weaber warns, emphasizing that “being a low-cost, high-productivity producer means you get to make money seven, eight or nine years of the cycle.”

He stresses the importance of understanding financial implications, particularly during market transitions.

“If we’re not working on the business, we can’t work in the business,” Weaber adds, summarizing his philosophy regarding producers’ need to adopt more strategic, data-driven approaches.

The State of the Beef Industry Report includes input from nearly 500 beef producers. The annual report provides information to help producers when making decisions. Click here to download the full report.

Your Next Read: 47% of Beef Producers Plan to Increase Herd Numbers

Could EPA Decision Signal The Beginning Of The End For DEF?

Thu, 31 Jul 2025 16:24:41 GMT

Mike Berdo has strong words to describe his ongoing experiences using machinery requiring DEF ( Diesel Exhaust Fluid ) on his southeast Iowa farm.

“It has been an absolute nightmare, at least for us. Mechanics make trip after trip to do little stuff that’s very expensive to fix,” said Berdo, who produces grain and beef cattle near Washington. “We had planting delays last spring … little stuff that came from it and just seemed like [an issue to deal with] day after day.”

The ongoing mechanical issues and costs are why Berdo said he is “all for” EPA rescinding the 2009 Greenhouse Gas Endangerment Finding. The Finding has enabled the agency to regulate greenhouse gas emissions under Section 202 of the Clean Air Act and, in recent years, and launch requirements such as the use of DEF systems in diesel-powered engines.

EPA Draws A Line In The Sand
On Tuesday, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin released a proposal to rescind the 2009 Finding.

If finalized, the proposal would remove all greenhouse gas standards for light-, medium- and heavy-duty vehicles and heavy-duty engines, EPA said in a follow-up press release .

The move would start with EPA’s first greenhouse gas standard set in 2010 for light-duty vehicles and those set in 2011 for medium-duty vehicles and heavy-duty vehicles and engines.

EPA said the proposal is expected to “save Americans $54 billion in costs annually through the repeal of all greenhouse gas standards, including the Biden EPA’s electric vehicle mandate, under conservative economic forecasts.”

Zeldin made the announcement to rescind the Finding in Indiana, alongside Energy Secretary Chris Wright, and called it the largest deregulatory action in U.S. history.

What The Decision Could Mean To Farmers
Specific to U.S. farmers, the proposal could potentially result in DEF systems no longer being included on new tractors and other heavy equipment using diesel-powered engines, said Chip Flory, host of AgriTalk, during a Farmer Forum discussion on Wednesday.

South Dakota farmer Ryan Wagner told Flory he has a wait-and-see perspective on how or whether the EPA proposal goes into effect. He anticipates that reversing the Finding will take considerable time and effort for EPA to implement.

“It took a long time with the interim engines and things to get into full DEF in the first place,” Wagner said. “I don’t know how long it would take to unwind all that and how quickly manufacturing will just take those systems right off, but it’ll be interesting to see what happens.”

To Wagner’s point, here’s a brief look back at some timing showing when DEF rolled out in agriculture and nonroad equipment and became mandatory . The regulations were phased in over several years based on the type of equipment and engine size:

2008: DEF became required for all new diesel engines with engine sizes over 750 horsepower.

2011: the regulations expanded to include equipment with engine sizes between 175-750 horsepower.

By 2015, all new nonroad diesel engines were required to be Tier 4 compliant and utilize DEF, regardless of equipment type or engine size.

As Wagner considers DEF, he noted its use in diesel engines has provided him with one benefit: “On the plus side, I do like that they don’t make the walls of my shop black. That’s been nice,” he said. “You can run them inside for a short time and not not feel like you’re breathing in a bunch of soot and making everything black.”

Expect Legal Challenges To EPA Decision
A number of environmental groups have already blasted the move by EPA, saying it spells the end of the road for U.S. action against climate change, according to an online article by Reuters .

Legal challenges from various environmental groups, states and lawyers are likely ahead.

That fact wasn’t lost on Flory and the Farmer Forum participants during the AgriTalk discussion on Wednesday.

“If this proposal is finalized, it’s going to start a lot of conversations … and the dominoes are going to start to fall, something that we need to keep track of, no doubt,” Flory said. You can hear the complete Farmer Forum discussion on AgriTalk here:

EPA will initiate a public comment period to solicit input. Further information on the public comment process and instructions for participation will be published in the Federal Register and on the EPA website .

Your next read: Right To Repair Granted? John Deere Launches Digital Self-Repair Tool for $195 Per Tractor

Rural America is Facing a Mounting Labor Crisis

Fri, 11 Jul 2025 21:02:49 GMT

The American labor market is reaching a critical turning point that could tighten labor availability in rural industries and slow growth across the U.S. economy. A new quarterly report from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange warns that demographic shifts and recent policy changes may start impacting businesses as soon as late 2025.

From livestock and crop operations to food processors and rural cooperatives, this labor shortage is becoming especially noticeable in the heart of America’s farmland. Many producers are already struggling to fill roles, and the challenge is expected to intensify in the coming months.

“Barring an unforeseen change in labor force participation rates or immigration policies, the pool of available workers is set to shrink sharply in the next few years,” says Rob Fox, director of CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange. “The problem will be even more serious in states with slower population growth in the Upper Midwest, Corn Belt and Central Plains.”

Demographic Pressures Mount

Fox says the warning signs have been building for years. Labor force participation has steadily declined, birth rates have dropped and immigration policy has become more restrictive.

Between 2022 and 2024, nearly 9 million immigrants arrived in the U.S., driven by global humanitarian crises and relaxed federal rules. While that influx temporarily eased labor constraints, Fox says it only masked deeper, long-term trends.

U.S. fertility rates have fallen from 2.12 children per woman in 2007 to 1.62 in 2023, meaning fewer young people are entering the workforce just as the last of the baby boomers retire. In addition, labor force participation has slipped from a peak of 67% in 2000 to 62% today. Nearly 2.5 million working-age Americans have left the labor force in the past eight months alone.

“There is no single reason people are stepping away,” Fox explains. “It’s a combination of rising caregiving responsibilities, job skill mismatches, mental health challenges and higher disability rates. These are complex issues that won’t be resolved overnight.”

Shrinking Workforce Hits Agriculture Hard

The effects are already being felt across rural America. Farms, food processors, equipment dealers and cooperatives are struggling to find and keep the workers they need to maintain daily operations. Seasonal labor has become harder to find and full-time positions, especially those requiring specialized skills or long hours, are increasingly difficult to fill.

In regions with slower population growth, such as the upper Midwest and central Plains, the challenge is even more acute. These areas often lack the population inflows that help offset workforce losses elsewhere in the country.

While labor has been tight for several years, Fox warns that conditions are poised to deteriorate further.

“What we are facing is not just a cyclical labor issue; it’s a structural one,” he says.

Border encounters have dropped sharply since August 2024, signaling a steep decline in immigration. Combined with rising political pressure to increase deportations, the agricultural labor pool could shrink even more in the months ahead.

“Immigration has long been a key pillar supporting the rural workforce,” Fox notes. “Without a steady flow of new workers, farms and agribusinesses will have to get creative, either by increasing wages, automating tasks or changing how they manage production.”

Technology Offers a Path Forward

In response, more agricultural businesses are turning to technology to help offset the labor gap.

“The key to addressing labor scarcity always lies in innovation,” Fox says. “AI and robotics are no longer limited to the factory floor. They are increasingly being used in fields, dairies and food plants.”

A recent Gallup poll found that nearly one in five workers already uses artificial intelligence in some form each week. At the same time, the cost of robotics has dropped by nearly half in the past decade, making automation more accessible for a broader range of farms and agribusinesses.

CoBank’s report notes that many farm supply customers are using new tools to increase efficiency, improve decision-making and free up time for employees to focus on higher-value responsibilities.

Planning for What Comes Next

As producers look toward 2026, a combination of labor constraints, volatile input costs and shifting policy landscapes will continue to shape decision-making. Fox thinks adaptability will be essential.

“Technology will be critical to agriculture’s future,” he says. “AI and robotics can help farmers do more with fewer workers, boosting efficiency and margins. But investment decisions must be made carefully, especially in this uncertain economic environment.”

Until clearer policies emerge on trade, labor and energy, rural America will need to prepare for continued pressure.

“This is a pivotal moment,” Fox concludes. “Farms that plan ahead, embrace innovation and stay flexible will be best positioned to succeed.”

Overcoming Burnout in the Agriculture Industry

Tue, 01 Jul 2025 12:56:36 GMT

Burnout isn’t always about doing too much. Sometimes it’s about doing the wrong mix of work or carrying all of the mental load on top of the physical. That’s according to Kacee Bohle, who runs AgriMinds , a group coaching business for members of the agriculture industry.

“You can still have a full plate and feel fine, especially if you’re doing stuff that energizes you,” she says. “But what happens when every single part of your day feels like a chore, even the stuff that you used to love? That’s when you know stuff is starting to get off. You can feel burnt out, even when you love or loved the type of work that you do.”

For business owners, farmers, ranchers and ag professionals, Bohle says people often judge themselves for having negative thoughts about the work they have chosen to do in a field they love. There is pressure to carry on the family legacy and love every part of it, and to feel proud of the work.

“Burnout doesn’t care who you are,” she says. “Burnout doesn’t care who’s in charge. It shows up when you’re over extended, misaligned, and you’re trying to carry all the things all the time without any support,” she explains.

Sometimes the work isn’t optional. The gate needs fixed. The field work needs done. The livestock need fed. Bohle points out even when the tasks can’t change, the conversation can. Sometimes it’s not the physical work that is causing burnout, but the mindset surrounding the work.

“What I mean is I want you to start noticing what expectations, pressure or guilt that you’ve been piling on top of the already heavy stuff,” she explains. “Sometimes what’s extinguishing you isn’t the work, it’s the story that you’re telling yourself about the work.”

For example, it could look like thoughts that are similar to: I should be able to handle this. I shouldn’t be tired. I chose this. I don’t have time to feel burnt out. I just need to push through this. It’ll eventually go away.

As Bohle points out, pushing through only works so long.

“There’s only so much you can brush under the rug before it starts seeping out, bulging and tripping you up,” Bohle says. “Eventually, your energy runs out, and if your mindset isn’t giving you any grace or flexibility, everything is just going to continue to feel harder.”

Can you extinguish burnout? Start with what you can control.

An exercise to address burnout is to create two lists. Write down what gives you energy and what drains you, Bohle suggests.

Notice one item on this list that drains you that you can shift or do differently, she says. Then look at the list of things that gives you energy and intentionally add back in something that gives you energy — even if it’s for just five minutes.

“This is not about trying to fix everything,” she explains. “It’s not even about trying to fix stuff overnight. This exercise is just about noticing what’s going on beneath the surface, giving yourself permission to make some small shifts here. Control what you can control.”

Four mindset shifts to keep in mind:

You’re not lazy or failing.
You’re likely mentally, physically, and emotionally maxed out.
Focus on awareness and small, intentional changes.
Remember, the goal is not to fix everything overnight, but to start noticing and making small, manageable changes.

Your next read: Overcome the No. 1 Challenge in Passing Down Your Family Farm

July Weather Outlook: Goodbye Rain, Hello Heat

Tue, 24 Jun 2025 20:11:21 GMT

The Pacific Jet Stream has been going strong since early spring, sending heavy rains down through the Ohio River Valley, delaying farmers’ planting efforts there, then more recently, moving large amounts of moisture into the central Corn Belt.

“Nobody would have thought three months ago that we were going to have this much rain occurring across key crop areas, especially in the southern half of the Plains and in the Delta and Tennessee River Basin,” says Drew Lerner, president and senior agricultural meteorologist of World Weather.

But be advised, the engine driving that jet stream is about to turn off, says John Hoomenuk of EmpireWeather.com . He anticipates that by early July, some farmers will see those heavy rain events turn into a trickle.

Weather outlook for early July.

(BAM Weather)

Weather Brewing For July

“As we get into the second week of July or so, we’ll see the ridge push a little further north, and we’ll see some drier forecasts starting to appear, starting in Kansas and Nebraska, and then spreading a little bit into southwestern and central Iowa at times as well,” Hoomenuk says.

“That’s really caught our attention, because we just haven’t seen that [pattern] so far this year, and it’s a pretty big change compared to where we’ve been,” he adds.

As July goes on and August nears, Hoomenuk says the weather data indicate the jet stream will go up into Canada and drop into the Great Lakes.

If that occurs, he says farmers in Indiana, Illinois and Ohio are likely to get some precipitation dropping on the east side of the ridge. But across the Central Plains, Kansas, Nebraska, Dakotas, and maybe even into parts of Iowa, farmers will see their conditions trend a little drier.

“I think that’s not a huge concern just yet, but it’s a pretty big change up compared to where we’ve been the last couple of weeks,” Hoomenuk told AgriTalk host, Chip Flory, on Tuesday.

Drought Risks Remain In Place

The outlook for drier weather in July is not a surprise, based on the patterns some meteorologists saw shaping up last winter.

“The central United States is at about a 60% drought risk. Some of the best weather forecast models we have out there are trying to put the epicenter of that drought somewhere between Missouri, Nebraska, South Dakota, Iowa and southern Minnesota by the time we get into July and August,” says Eric Snodgrass, principal atmospheric scientist for Nutrien.

Much of the western U.S. has been enduring dry, hot conditions already this year. Much of the central Midwest is about to experience the same.

(The National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.)

“When you think about those particular states, developing drought from spring to summer in any year is somewhere in the neighborhood of 28% to 38%,” he says. “Essentially, the risk is doubled this year.”

Snodgrass explains the canary in the coal mine for a drought will come from a combination of the Gulf of Alaska ocean temperatures and the Bermuda high, which is an area of high pressure that can influence weather patterns and tropical systems. If the Gulf of Alaska ocean temperatures begin dropping this summer, that’s a sign moisture will be lacking.

The silver lining, Hoomenuk says, is many farmers have either had excess or sufficient moisture this spring, so no alarm bells have been ringing yet for corn and soybean crops that are now in rapid growth.

His concern is the current weather patterns will stagnate, causing temperatures to rise.

“Most of the long-range data we’re seeing, if you look at July as a whole, is showing some pretty substantial [temperature] numbers in the Central Plains. We’re talking somewhere between four and five degrees above normal in some areas of Kansas and Nebraska, two or three degrees above normal for the month on average, surrounding that in parts of southwestern Iowa and the Dakotas,” he says.

As for states further east, such as Indiana, Michigan and Ohio, Hoomenuk says farmers there will likely see temperatures “closer to normal” for July, based on data he’s reviewed.

“The thing I keep seeing is temperatures looking to be about normal, maybe slightly warmer than normal – just a couple days of heat followed by a cool down and some rain, which is is pretty ideal,” he says. “It doesn’t seem like we’ll get into that long-term heat there in those eastern regions of the U.S, so the concern level out there is pretty low right now heading into July.”

Your next read: Crop Quality in the Midwest: Most States Soar, Some Flounder

U.S. Ag Trade Deficit Hits Record High In First Four Months Of 2025

Mon, 23 Jun 2025 21:02:20 GMT

Three years and counting – that’s how long U.S. agriculture has been in an agricultural trade deficit – reports Faith Parum, American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) economist.

“From January through April, the United States imported $78.2 billion in agricultural products while exporting just $58.5 billion. This $19.7 billion deficit is the largest ever recorded for the first four months of a year and signals that the 2025 deficit could surpass previous records,” Parum says in a new AFBF report .

(AFBF Calculations; USDA FAS)

In early June, the USDA raised its forecast of the U.S. agriculture trade deficit for fiscal-year 2025 to $49.5 billion, from the $49 billion it previously forecast in February.

Imports of high-value food items, such as fruits and vegetables, have driven the growing deficit, according to Parum, who says they represent the largest trade deficit category.

Have The Deficit Numbers Already Peaked?

While the forecast is concerning, Stephen Nicholson, Rabo AgriFinance global sector strategist for grains and oilseeds, says he is hopeful the agricultural trade deficit for 2025 has already reached its peak.

“My expectation is that we should see that trade deficit in agriculture come back a little because we have all this product, food, in our warehouses now, ready for consumers,” Nicholson told Farm Journal.

(USDA FAS GATS, USDA ERS Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade: May 2025)

Essentially, Nicholson says, many buyers made and imported larger food purchases than usual this spring to get those products into the U.S. ahead of potential trade tariffs the Trump administration announced would be imposed on Liberation Day, April 2.

“You know, when we saw that chart (from President Trump on the planned tariffs), I think a lot of us were pretty taken back by some of the eye-popping numbers we saw there. And then, of course, we came back a week later and they were cut in half.”

No One Knows ‘The Rules Of The Road’

Nicholson says the lack of certainty on tariffs, and other factors – ranging from conflict in the Middle East to high input costs and interest rates – has created challenges for all agricultural industries and farmers, including livestock producers.

“No one knows the rules of the road today,” he says. “Right now, no one wants to plan or invest or expend capital for plants, for expansion, because we don’t know what the economic environment is going to look like as we go six months to a year down the road.”

At the core of the problem is a rapidly evolving global marketplace that the U.S. appears increasingly ill-equipped to navigate, according to an article by Pro Farmer editors .

From shifting supply chains to aggressive trade strategies by key competitors like Brazil, Australia, and the EU, the landscape for ag exports is changing fast — and the U.S. is falling behind, they contend.

“We have no plan — none — to deal with this growing trade gap,” one senior industry executive says. “It’s not just bad policy; it’s no policy at all.”

Trade Deals Could Help The Situation

Farm groups continue to urge the White House to prioritize new trade deals that open markets for ag products.

But some industry insiders say the administration is too focused on broad tariff threats and “reciprocal tariffs,” while neglecting granular trade promotion and technical access issues that matter most for ag commodities, Pro Farmer reports.

At the grassroots level, Nicholson encourages corn and soybean to stay focused on market opportunities that could come up in the next week, given the weather conditions across the U.S.

“We’re in this very hot weather across the Corn Belt right now. If this forecast doesn’t quite pan out for the rest of the week, and more hot weather, and more rain or no rain, the market may react. Be prepared for those rallies in the market, and reward those rallies,” he encourages.

Your next read: Lift the Fog: 4 Drivers of Farm Profitability To Watch in 2025

Fast Delivery, Competitive Prices and Simplicity Drives FBN Customer Satisfaction

Tue, 17 Jun 2025 19:13:33 GMT

A one-stop shop for farm and ranch input needs, Farmers Business Network (FBN) serves more than 13,000 livestock producers from across the U.S. FBN is expanding its livestock offering to include Ridley Feeds, Farmers First Mineral, fencing supplies, equine products as well as pet care.

Crop and cattle producer Kyle Burk, Burk Land & Cattle in Marionville, Mo., has been a customer of FBN for two years. Initially using FBN for its competitive chemical pricing, Burk now purchases approximately 90% of his mineral products for his livestock through the company.

“We background a lot of cattle for Joplin Regional Stockyards,” Burk says. “I feel the cattle have gained tremendously better with the FBN mineral program, whether it be fly control or other attribute.”

Burk manages a 2,000-acre farm primarily focused on feed production for his family’s stock cows, dairy and grow yard. He says FBN has become an integral part of his agricultural strategy — providing not just products, but comprehensive support across purchasing, financing and consulting.

“The website is extremely easy to use,” Burk explains.

The platform’s intuitive design allows him to quickly locate and order the exact items he needs for his diverse operation.

Customer service is another key to Burk’s FBN experience. He appreciates how the company proactively contacts customers within 24 hours of an unusual order to confirm it’s correct.

Beyond product ordering, Burk has also utilized FBN’s financial services. After an accident last year, he turned to FBN classifieds to purchase a replacement silage truck and secured financing through FBN within a day. The rate, he says, was more competitive than his local bank.

Burk says he recommends and appreciates the FBN professionals who have helped him with purchasing decisions. When drought led him to switch to conventional corn, he worked FBN’s chemical specialist for product support.

“It’s probably the cleanest corn we’ve ever had,” Burk says.

Expanding Livestock Catalog

Livestock is FBN’s fastest-growing segment, powered by producer trust in speed, value and reliable delivery. According to Emily Zollinger, FBN director of livestock, the platform’s latest offerings include:

Ridley Feeds (a division of Alltech) : Sweetlix mineral and tubs now available with live, daily pricing
Farmers First Mineral : A new, simplified line of cattle mineral dynamic pricing and clear online descriptions
Fencing Supplies : Including barbed wire, woven wire, pipe, cable and other fencing tools
Equine Care : Products for grooming, nutrition, deworming, hoof care and vaccinations
Pet Health: Vaccines, parasite control, nutrition, and prescriptions filled with vet approval

“We’re building a marketplace where ranchers and livestock producers get not only great prices, but convenience and service they can count on,” Zollinger says.

(FBN)

Why Producers Choose FBN

Initially founded in 2014, FBN expanded into livestock in 2020. Today, the platform is designed to make purchasing fast, transparent and farm-friendly.

Key features include:

Free membership
Build your own online order
Fast shipping (typically two business days)
Nationwide logistics network across the U.S. and Canada
Flexible support ranging from self-service to dedicated account reps
Educational tools including blogs and resource hubs
Financing options with competitive rates
Prescription support working directly with your vet to verify orders

Zollinger says FBN’s mission is to deliver prosperity to family farmers and ranchers through every season, every segment and every challenge.

“We’re not just selling inputs,” she summarizes. “We’re giving farmers and ranchers a platform — with tools, pricing transparency and support they can build a business on.”

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Chinese Scientist Accused Of Smuggling ‘Potential Agroterrorism Weapon’ Into the U.S.

Wed, 04 Jun 2025 21:22:46 GMT

Two Chinese nationals have been charged with trying to smuggle a fungus, Fusarium graminearum, into the United States.

Yunqing Jian, 33, and Zunyong Liu, 34, citizens of the People’s Republic of China, were charged in a criminal complaint with conspiracy, smuggling goods into the U.S., false statements and visa fraud.

The charges against the pair were unsealed in the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Eastern District of Michigan, on Tuesday.

The U.S. Attorney’s Office references Fusarium graminearum online as a “dangerous biological pathogen … which scientific literature classifies as a potential agroterrorism weapon.”

Fusarium graminearum causes significant diseases in a number of U.S.-grown food crops, including corn, wheat, barley, soybeans and rice.

Diseases caused include Fusarium head blight (scab) in wheat, and two corn diseases Gibberella ear rot and Gibberella stalk rot , which can lower yield and feed quality of silage corn, according to the Crop Protection Network, a partnership of land grant universities.

Toxins the fungus produces can cause vomiting, liver damage, reproductive defects and mycotoxin-induced immunosuppression in humans and livestock, including cattle, hogs, horses and poultry.

One Scientist Arrested, One Returned To China
The 25-page criminal complaint alleges Liu tried to smuggle the fungus through the Detroit Metropolitan Airport (DMA) in July 2024, so he could study it at a University of Michigan laboratory where his girlfriend, Yunqing Jian, worked at the time.

Jian had been living in the U.S. and working at the university laboratory since 2022.

The roots of the case involving Yunqing Jian, 33, and her boyfriend, Zunyong Liu, 34, stretch back to March 2024. That is when Liu applied for a B2 tourist visa to enter the U.S.

(The Detroit News and Sanilac County Jail)

According to the criminal complaint, Jian and Liu had both previously conducted work on the fungus in China.

Officials further allege Jian received funding from the Chinese government for her research on the pathogen in China. They also claim she is a member of the Chinese Communist Party.

Jian, who was arrested by the FBI, remains in federal custody. On Thursday, her detention hearing was adjourned until 1 p.m. June 13 to allow time for a new defense attorney to get up to speed.

Liu was sent back to China last year after changing his story during an interrogation at the Detroit airport about red plant material discovered in a wad of tissues in his backpack, the FBI says.

The U.S. does not have an extradition treaty with China, which makes Liu’s arrest unlikely unless he returns.

In a statement released on June 3, the University of Michigan said it condemns “any actions that seek to cause harm, threaten national security or undermine the university’s critical public mission.”

“It is important to note that the university has received no funding from the Chinese government in relation to research conducted by the accused individuals,” the university added. “We have and will continue to cooperate with federal law enforcement in its ongoing investigation and prosecution.”

In a statement released on June 3, the University of Michigan said it condemns “any actions that seek to cause harm, threaten national security or undermine the university’s critical public mission.”

(Michigan News Source)

Boyfriend Spills Intentions To Investigators
An article in The Detroit News said Liu told investigators during an interrogation at the Detroit airport he planned to clone the different strains and make additional samples if the experiments on the reddish plant material failed, according to the government.

“Liu stated that he intentionally hid the samples in his backpack because he knew there were restrictions on the importation of the materials,” an FBI agent wrote. “Liu confirmed that he had intentionally put the samples in a wad of tissues so CBP officers would be less likely to find and confiscate them, and he could continue his research in the United States.”

Liu told investigators he planned on using UM’s Molecular Plant-Microbe Interaction Laboratory to research the biological materials, the FBI agent wrote.

“Liu stated that, while he was in the United States, he would have free access to the laboratory at the University of Michigan on some days, and that other days his girlfriend would give him access to the laboratory to conduct his research,” The Detroit News article reported.

Before preventing Liu from entering the U.S. and sending him back to China, the investigators found messages between the couple that indicate Jian previously smuggled biological material into the U.S., the FBI agent wrote.

The messages are from August 2022 and discuss smuggling seeds into the U.S.

Lawmakers Respond To The Criminal Complaint
Attorney General Pam Bondi said in a statement that the Justice Department “has no higher mission than keeping the American people safe and protecting our nation from hostile foreign actors who would do us harm.”

“Thanks to the hard work of our excellent DOJ attorneys, this defendant — who clandestinely attempted to bring a destructive substance into the United States — will face years behind bars,” the attorney general says.

“I can confirm that the FBI arrested a Chinese national within the United States who allegedly smuggled a dangerous biological pathogen into the country,” FBI Director Kash Patel said on Tuesday.

(FBI)

FBI Director Kash Patel addressed the arrest of Jian late Tuesday on X, formerly Twitter.

“This case is a sobering reminder that the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) is working around the clock to deploy operatives and researchers to infiltrate American institutions and target our food supply, which would have grave consequences … putting American lives and our economy at serious risk.”

U.S. Custom and Border Protection, Director of Field Operations Marty C. Raybon says the criminal charges against Jian and Liu are indicative of CBP’s critical role in protecting the American people from biological threats that could devastate its agricultural economy and cause harm to humans.

“This was a complex investigation involving CBP offices from across the country, alongside our federal partners,” says Raybon in a prepared statement. “I’m grateful for their tireless efforts, ensuring our borders remain secure from all types of threats while safeguarding America’s national security interests.”

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Ag on WOTUS: We Need Predictability, Dependability and Consistency

Thu, 01 May 2025 21:42:49 GMT

It was a full virtual house during the Waters of the U.S. listening session for industry and agriculture. The May 1 morning session was part of an ongoing outreach effort by the Environmental Protection Agency and the Army Corps of Engineers in reworking WOTUS to bring it into alignment with the U.S. Supreme Court’s 2023 Sackett decision .

Over 40 speakers gave public comments and dozens more on the waiting list were left when the almost three-hour listening session ended.

The message from speakers — agricultural and industrial alike — was resounding: ‘We need clear, consistent, predictable and dependable definitions on WOTUS that everyday people can understand.’

Clear, consistent, predictable, dependable and understandable

“Agriculture bears the brunt of expansive and ambiguous WOTUS definitions,” said Norm Semanko, an environmental lawyer speaking for Family Farm Alliance. This perspective was echoed in dozens of ways by almost every agricultural voice at the hearing.

Garrett Hawkins, president of the Missouri Farm Bureau, put a fine point on the issue.

“We’ve seen WOTUS definitions, guidance and legal arguments change with each administration,” he said, “and farmers, land owners and small businesses are the ones who suffer the most when we don’t have clear rules.”

“This uncertainty forces us to hire experts just to get guidance on whether we can use common agricultural practices on our farms,” he continued. Other speakers pointed out that getting it wrong is not an option for those in agriculture.

“The costs associated with non-compliance of the Clean Water Act are just simply too high for farmers,” said Jay Bragg, commodity and regulatory activities associate director for the Texas Farm Bureau. Instead, farmers “should be able to make these determinations without consultants or engineers.”

This was a theme repeated by speaker after speaker. Many quoted the direct text of the original Clean Water Act and its focus on “ordinary parlance” related to definitions of a water of the U.S.

“A practical WOTUS definition will allow the average landowner — not an engineer, not an attorney, not a wetland specialist — to walk out on their property, see a water feature, and make, at minimum, a preliminary determination about whether a feature is federally jurisdictional,” said Kim Brackett, vice president of the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association.

Ditches, converted crop land and other categories

The hosts of the listening session called the issue of jurisdictional determinations on ditches one of critical importance. Agricultural commenters agreed and called for wide, if not complete, exemption of agricultural ditches under the WOTUS definition.

“No farm ditches should ever be included as a WOTUS. They should be excluded because they are neither streams, oceans, rivers or lakes,” said Michael Formica, chief legal strategist for the National Pork Producers Council, effectively summarizing the arguments of dozens of commenters.

Those who commented from outside the agricultural industry also stressed the importance of excluding most if not all ditches from jurisdictional waters definitions. Several representatives from building organizations cited concerns related to especially road-side ditches being considered jurisdictional.

Though fewer commenters spoke on the issue of prior converted cropland and its place in WOTUS, those who did made similar arguments appealing to common sense.

“Broadly speaking, land should not be classified as a jurisdictional water,” said Christina Gruenhagen, government relations counsel for the Iowa Farm Bureau. “Prior converted cropland should be considered land and not a jurisdictional water.”

Almost every speaker referenced the need for WOTUS definitions to conform with the U.S. Supreme Court’s 2023 Sackett decision . Most also called for the agencies to significantly reduce the categories of jurisdictional waters.

“The Sackett decision helps us to clarify that there are three — and only three — primary categories of WOTUS waters,” said Andy Rieber, public lands consultant for Humbolt County, Nev. These are the traditional interstate navigable waters, waters with a relatively permanent flow connected to them, and wetlands which are adjacent to either of those two prior categories.

“It is important for the EPA and the Army Corps of engineers to ensure that their definition of WOTUS reflects those three —and only those three — categories.”

Future engagement opportunities on WOTUS

The agency hosts of the May 1 morning listening session for industry and ag told attendees there is another listening session planned for the public. That listening session has not yet been scheduled, however. They urged those who were unable to give testimony to keep watch on the EPA’s WOTUS site .

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Grassley: I Still Support Trump, But Congress Should Lead On Trade, Tariffs

Mon, 07 Apr 2025 21:09:41 GMT

With financial markets spiraling deeper into the red, Senator Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) is pounding the table in support of a bill that would wrestle back the executive branch’s authority to enact unilateral world trade decisions without Congressional approval.

The senior senator from Iowa has long held the belief the U.S. Constitution gives Congress direct oversight in regulating foreign commerce. Grassley says the legislature has deferred this authority to the executive branch since the 1960s, and it’s time to claw that power back within the walls of Congress.

“The impression is that I’m doing this because of what Trump did last week. It has nothing to do with that,” Grassley told AgriTalk host Chip Flory on Monday. “This president is doing what Congress gave him the power to do, right? I felt the same way in 2019 and I tried to get some changes then.”

Now, Grassley says he is simply piggybacking on the heightened awareness of trade tariffs after last week’s “Liberation Day” announcements from the Rose Garden. He still supports the President’s overall agenda and is hoping for the best-case scenario – which would entail a worldwide negotiation process to balance trade deficits among the U.S. and its trade partners.

“If he’s successful in putting tariffs on other countries to get them to sit down at the table to bring all tariffs down, I’m going to say he did a better job than my approach of negotiating tariffs down,” Grassley says, adding that the administration can immediately help farmers by supporting a new 5-year Farm Bill and directing the EPA to approve year round E-15 fuel availability.

Under the proposed bipartisan legislation – which is co-sponsored by a handful of U.S. Senators from across the nation – the Trade Review Act of 2025 would require congressional approval of new unilateral tariffs proposed by the executive branch within 60 days.

Over the weekend, senior Trump administration officials, including USDA chief Brooke Rollins, made the rounds on the Sunday morning political TV programs to try to assure corn and soybean farmers – who have suffered profit line hits from two years of inflated operating expenses and low commodity prices – that the President’s tariff strategy would eventually pencil out to long-term gains in domestic manufacturing and crop export markets.

Then, on Monday morning, Trump posted on social media saying he will impose an additional 50% in tariffs (on top of the current 54% rate) on China by April 9 if the country did not back off the 34% retaliatory tariffs it enacted on American goods. Ag economists say the China tariffs will have a devastating impact on U.S. crop and meat exports, and many believe the tariffs have effectively handed Chinese feed and fiber demand to Brazil.

Related: As China Retaliates and Hits U.S. With a New 34% Tariff, What’s the Possible Impact on Ag?

(iStock/Lori Hays)

The U.S. today is China’s largest ag trading partner, but 2024 import data shows that relationship could be fading fast: shipments of U.S. farm goods into China nearly halved from 2022 levels, when China purchased almost $43 billion in U.S. ag products. Last year, that figure plummeted to $29 billion, and many expect the tariffs will slash that figure even lower. China has also torn up or suspended several trade deals with U.S.-based poultry producers, and some experts fear a decrease in demand for U.S. pork products could be devastating to American hog farmers.

Related: Pork Producers Resist Urge to Panic, Respond to New Tariffs

Overall, despite alarm bells being sounded from basically every corner of the economy, the senate’s current longest-tenured member is hopeful there’s a light at the end of this long, roller coaster tariff tunnel for America’s farmers and ranchers.

“If we can export our stuff in a free way, it’s going to help the economy of the United States, and it’s going to help our consumers if we don’t have tariffs on products coming into the United States,” Grassley says. “I’m supportive of the President’s effort to get a better deal for Americans, especially for our farmers because we export about a third of our production, and that’s where farmers want to get it.”

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China Strikes Back: U.S. Beef Now Faces a 56% Tariff, Pork is 81%

Fri, 04 Apr 2025 19:52:33 GMT

Just days after President Donald Trump announced responsive tariffs impacting 186 countries, China is hitting back. On top of the tariffs China already has in place, it’s matching the additional 34% tariff the U.S. announced on April 2.

As China slaps back, U.S. pork exports will now face a 81% tariff, while the tariff on beef is now 56%.

“These rates represent the sum total of China’s 12% most-favored-nation tariff, plus retaliatory duties previously imposed by China, plus the new duties set to take effect April 10,” says Dan Halstrom, U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) CEO.

The tariff rates now placed on U.S. meat are hefty, and USMEF says the impact could be significant, especially for pork.

“U.S. beef already faces major obstacles in China related to plant eligibility, so an increase in retaliatory duties puts exports in even greater jeopardy. Unfortunately, taking China out of the export mix also impacts the price U.S. beef cuts command in markets like Korea, Japan and Taiwan,” Halstrom says. “China’s duties on U.S. pork were already daunting and will now be massive, which severely impacts exports of pork variety meat. These exports equate to about $10 per U.S. hog, with China accounting for more than half of that total. USMEF remains hopeful that negotiations will be held soon to address these issues.”

While this does create new challenges and makes U.S. meat even less competitive for China, U.S. pork exports hit a record-high in 2024.

According to USMEF, China accounted for 15% of total U.S. pork export volume last year and 13% of export value. Variety meat was much higher. China took 54% of U.S. pork variety meat shipments, accounting for 59% of the value of these products.

As for beef, China accounted for 14% of total U.S. beef export volume last year and 15% of export value.

What’s at Risk for Ag?
It’s no secret China isn’t the giant export destination it was before the previous trade war. For years, China remained the top destination for U.S. ag exports, but now Mexico holds the top spot and Canada is second. In 2023, U.S. ag exports to China decreased, and China’s share of total U.S. exports fell to a four-year low.

What caused the shift? Economists say there are a number of factors, including fallout from the first trade war, increased competition from other countries, changes in Chinese import policies and a slowdown in China’s demand for certain U.S. ag products. It’s important to note, Brazil’s market share in China has been growing.

34% Tariff is in Addition to 20% Tariffs Already in Place for Other Ag Goods
Even before China’s retaliation this week, American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) analysis from March showed Beijing had specifically targeted 15 products, including beef, cotton, grain sorghum, pork, corn and dairy along with fresh fruit.

AFBF shows China has made up a quarter or more of U.S. global agricultural exports for 10 targeted products over the last five years:

Macadamia nuts (99%, $12 million)
Frozen swine carcasses (96%, $25 million)
Grain sorghum (88%, $1.3 billion)
Frozen swine offal (75%, $593 million)
Soybeans (53%, $12.8 billion)
Frozen unboned hams, shoulders and cuts thereof (45%, $7 million)
In-shell hazelnuts (38%, $8 million)
Cotton, not carded or combed (29%, $1.5 billion)
Frozen boneless bovine meat (27%, $1 billion)
In-shell pistachios (25%, $627 million)

Economists say while it’s too early to measure the full impact of the tariffs on U.S. agriculture, they believe it will certainly decrease demand for U.S. products in China.

Comparing the Possible Impact of Trade War 2.0
The March Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor found while 92% of economists think the U.S. is already in a trade war, 69% say they don’t think a trade war today would have the same impact it did 2018 through 2020.

“When you look at China, Brazil and soybeans, we don’t have as much of the market to lose as we did the first round,” one economist said.

Ag Econoimsts’ Monthly Monitor

(Lindsey Pound)

However, many economists think a trade war, this round, will have a more severe impact on agriculture.

“The trade war in 2018/19 also had the African swine fever [ASF] in China in the mix,” one economist said in the monthly survey. “Because of ASF, they did not need the soybeans anyway. It will be hard to figure out what impacted the U.S. markets/prices more, but the market reaction should not be as great this time.”

“It would be a bigger impact,” said another economist in regard to another trade war with China. “The first round of trade wars in agriculture were largely used as a wedge for negotiation or renegotiation of agreements that provided improved access and growth opportunities for ag trade. This round seems to be championed based on reshaping the entire trading system, a system that U.S. agriculture largely benefited from over time.”

(Farm Journal)

When economists were asked who ultimately wins in a trade war, none said the U.S. The majority of ag economists (73%) say it’s ultimately one of the United States’ biggest competitors: Brazil. Eighteen percent, however, think China will benefit from the latest trade war.

What Do Foot-and-Mouth Disease Outbreaks in Europe Mean for the U.S.?

Mon, 31 Mar 2025 13:19:03 GMT

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is rearing its ugly head in Europe. After an outbreak in water buffalo in Germany in January, an outbreak in cattle in Hungary in early March and an outbreak in cattle in Slovakia last week, why now? What is the U.S. doing to keep this foreign animal disease out and protect the country’s livestock industry?

“FMD is caused by a virus that affects cloven-hoofed animals so that can include cattle, pigs, sheep and goats,” explains Megan Niederwerder, DVM, who serves as the executive director of the Swine Health Information Center (SHIC). “It does not affect humans and is not a threat to food safety, but it has significant trade implications once it is introduced into a country.”

FMD has been fairly quiet in these European countries – with no cases reported for decades. Other parts of Europe have seen outbreaks more recently like the 2001 outbreak in the United Kingdom that caused a crisis in British agriculture and tourism and resulted in the cancellation of the World Pork Expo held in Des Moines, Iowa.

“FMD really decimated the United Kingdom,” says Barb Determan who was serving as president of the National Pork Producers Council (NPPC) at the time. “It became very apparent that we couldn’t guarantee the safety for our U.S. pig herd because of the high numbers of international travelers that would be at the show. We had to cancel World Pork Expo out of an abundance of precaution.”

Although there is still a lot to be discovered about how FMD was introduced into these populations, it’s a significant warning to the U.S. to be on alert.

(Lori Hays)

That was the first time, but not the only time World Pork Expo was canceled. The event was also canceled in 2019 because of the African swine fever outbreak in China and again in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

“That was a hard financial decision,” Determan says. “We had just completed the separation agreement between NPPC and the National Pork Board. NPPC was very tightly budgeted at that time, so it was a huge hit.”

However, keeping the U.S. pig herd safe was the most important thing on everyone’s mind. She says they made their decision after hearing reports from veterinarians who had been to England to better understand the extensiveness as well as from the USDA that had sent veterinarians over to help.

“At that time, we didn’t have near the biosecurity practices and things that we do now with the disinfectant foot mats,” Determan says. “We also don’t have live pigs on the on the grounds now compared to how we did things many years ago. We used to have live pigs everywhere on the fairgrounds in the early 2000s from genetics companies with pigs in their displays to the pigs in the live shows.”

The Truth About FMD
The clinical signs of FMD are similar to what the name implies. It can cause vesicles or blisters on the feet, mouth and tongue of animals that are infected. The U.S. has not had a case of FMD since 1929.

“We certainly want to keep it that way, as the economic implications for producers are significant if the virus is introduced,” Niederwerder says.

Compared to many viruses, FMD is a highly stable, non-enveloped virus that allows it to be infectious for longer periods. It’s very contagious and highly transmissible. Not only are there risks with transmission of the virus through infected meat products that may come in through illegal trade, but it can also be carried on contaminated clothes or equipment or supplies of humans.

“The human would not be infected, but certainly people can carry the virus on contaminated clothing,” Niederwerder says. “That’s why it’s really important as we think about prevention of entry into the U.S.”

FMD causes fever and pain. It results in excessive salivation and causes reduced milk production in dairy cattle.

“When you think about the impact, certainly there’s an impact on animal health with regards to the clinical signs, but even further is this impact on trade restrictions and the economic losses for producers,” Niederwerder says. “When you try and contain the virus, that oftentimes results in those infected animals being culled or euthanized so the disease no longer has the chance to spread.”

Why Should the U.S. Pay Attention?
When a virus moves into a new geographical range or is reintroduced into a country that has maintained a negative status for a long period, Niederwerder says it’s critical to reassess the risk to the U.S.

“In January, Germany reported their first case in over 30 years in water buffalo near Berlin,” she explains. “It was 14 animals, and those animals were all culled after the infection was confirmed but certainly trade restrictions and implications on surrounding areas of that Berlin farm were significant.”

Fast forward to March when two additional countries have reported cases. Hungary reported FMD in a single farm of cattle in the north part of the country for the first time in over 50 years. Shortly thereafter, the virus appeared in Slovakia (who also hadn’t seen a case in over 50 years) in multiple herds of cattle.

“Just recently, another herd was a suspect herd in Slovakia, near the southern border near Hungary,” Niederwerder says. “This is certainly concerning about how this virus is being reintroduced. Is it associated with contaminated fomites that may be in the country or traveling to new locations? Is it associated with wild boar? Could it be associated with infected hay?”

Although there is still a lot to be discovered about how FMD was introduced into these populations, it’s a significant warning to the U.S. to be on alert .

“We need to do everything we can to make sure it doesn’t get reintroduced into the U.S.,” Niederwerder says. “How can we amp up any biosecurity measures that are necessary to reduce our risk? We also need to think about reducing the risk of introduction into our country through travel and illegal trade.”

Be on Alert
Livestock operations should reevaluate biosecurity protocols. If any of your farm’s employees travel to areas where there are infected animals, implement a quarantine period for entry back into your U.S. farm, she advises.

“Be vigilant,” Niederwerder urges. “One of the challenges of FMD is that it does cause these characteristic lesions of vesicles or blisters on the mouth, nose or the hoof. What becomes very tricky is that those clinical signs are indistinguishable from other vesicular diseases such as Senecavirus A. If producers and veterinarians see these lesions, they must report it immediately so it can be investigated and confirmed that it is not FMD virus.”

FMD is not just a disease of pigs and cattle, she points out. Sheep, goats and cloven-hoofed zoo animals may also be impacted by FMD. This increases the breadth of what the industry needs to monitor.

“The world is very small now,” Niederwerder says. “Not only do people travel more internationally, but animals move around more than ever, too. It’s extremely important for those of us that are producers to keep our eyes open and pay attention to what’s going on worldwide so we can be as prepared as possible for any change in disease risk.”

That’s one of the ways that SHIC is trying to help producers. SHIC provides timely domestic and global disease updates to producers.

“Watching the SHIC global disease report is really important for producers,” Determan says. “It comes out every month and really gives you a feel for what’s happening in the entire world from a swine health standpoint. The biggest lesson we learned from the 2001 FMD outbreak is that looking farther out than just our own farm gate is so important.”

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Texas Teen Charged with Deadly Conduct After Letting Steers Loose at Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo

Tue, 25 Mar 2025 14:56:47 GMT

A Texas teenager was arrested and charged with deadly conduct for his behavior at the Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo on March 19.

Alonso Apodaca, a 17-year-old fairgoer, was worried the steers were tied up too tightly, ABC 13 News reports. He went up to a steer, took off its halter and let it loose. Then, he continued to do this for another steer, the article says.

He went up to a third steer and was petting it when someone asked him not to do that, ABC 13 reports. He was tackled to the ground and handcuffed soon after this.

Apodaca was charged with deadly conduct, a misdemeanor. He was taken to jail where he remained overnight as his mother told local reporters that she wanted to teach him to control his actions and emotions better. The teenager took responsibility for his decisions and later told ABC 13 News that he learned an important lesson to think before taking action next time.

Although none of the steers got out and nobody was injured, stock show officials expressed their concern about the unpredictability and danger of loose 1,200+ lb. animals in a crowd of people.

A record-breaking 2.7 million people attended the Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo this year.

(Brianna Knowlton/Next Level Images)

Show Livestock Require Proper Animal Handling Skills
While show cattle might appear calm and friendly, they still require experienced handling and restraint, says Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo Calf Scramble Judge Jon DeClerck.

“For the safety of both the public and our exhibitors, it is critical no one interacts with livestock without the owner’s permission and assistance,” says DeClerck, incoming executive vice president of the American Simmental Association. “A loose steer in a busy environment can pose serious risks, from injuring pedestrians and junior exhibitors to causing accidents. As a judge we greatly appreciate everyone’s respect for these animals and the hard work exhibitors put into their care and safety.”

Signs clearly ask people not to touch the animals. This is not only for the safety of animals and fairgoers, but also for the health of both animals and people.

A record-breaking 2.7 million people attended the Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo this year. A crew of 35,000 volunteers give their time to help make the 20-day event that brings in more than 12,000 head of livestock a success.

Know the ‘Why’ Behind Proper Show Conduct
Jeff Langemeier, one of the event’s volunteers with decades of experience in the stock show industry, says the majority of the volunteers come from cities and there is a need for more rural volunteers who have livestock experience. That’s one of the reasons why he volunteers to help at the show – to help share his practical knowledge of the livestock industry in this volunteer role.

“This instance brings to the forefront the safety of all attending and these valuable projects are of the utmost priority,” Langemeier says. “Safety protocols are in place for all committees and instilled in the behaviors of all involved.”

Beyond the component of human and animal safety, it is important for exhibitors to be diligent and engaging in the ‘why’ behind their conduct at livestock shows, particularly with large public crowds, says Clay Zwilling, CEO of the National Swine Registry.

“We often take for granted our daily and routine tasks,” Zwilling says. “This is an example of stepping back and thinking about why we may have common practices, or more importantly, how we remain diligent to protect fairgoers and fellow exhibitors.”

Emily Ellis, director of communications and content for Animal Agriculture Alliance, agrees that this story emphasizes the continued need for members of the animal agriculture community to proactively communicate what they’re doing on the farm and why certain practices are important for animal welfare, animal health, environmental stewardship and other valued issues.

“This highlights the unintended consequences of members of the public taking matters into their own hands when they don’t understand or agree with a practice being used in agriculture,” Ellis says. “In some instances, as it appears in this case, it’s due to a misunderstanding. In other instances, it’s connected to more extreme ideologies like animal rights activism.”

Zwilling adds that everyone is very lucky that no people or animals were hurt or caused themselves or others damage.

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Ag on WOTUS: We Need Predictability, Dependability and Consistency

Clear, consistent, predictable, dependable and understandable

Ditches, converted crop land and other categories