Avocado Industry News

Food Inflation, Threatened Tariffs: What Is The Effect On Super Bowl Snack Tables?

Mon, 03 Feb 2025 20:14:53 GMT

Whether it’s chicken wings (up 7%) or vegetables for the snack tray (broccoli is down 7%), Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute Economist Dr. Michael Swanson says consumers shouldn’t expect every snack food category to increase their budget for a traditional Super Bowl party. And he doesn’t think President Trump’s latest trade talks with Mexico, Canada and China will have a direct, immediate effect at the grocery store by Sunday’s big game.

“It’s unlikely that changes in tariffs will impact prices headed into the Super Bowl, however, we’ll see how it plays out in the coming weeks. This is certainly the year for consumers to stay food fluent,” Swanson says.

For the past four years, he’s led the team at Wells Fargo to look at popular categories for game day watch parties and analyze the pricing trends. His research aims to help consumers stay “food fluent” to find alternatives, substitutions and bargains when they can.

“We started in 2021 when we saw the first spike in food inflation. And the past three years, everything has been up—it was a question of how much a category was up that year,” Swanson says. “But for 2025, some categories are up, and some are not. Some are way up; and some are way down.”

Swanson says it’s demand keeping prices elevated—not supply.

“Take chicken wings. Did the avian influenza knock out the chicken wings? The answer is, no, it didn’t–it was mainly the egg laying flocks. We have almost more chicken wings than we did last year, but prices are up 7%. Why? It’s consumer demand,” he says.

For dairy products, the Super Bowl is one of the top three demand events.

“Between the nachos, pizzas and sundry cheese-based snacks, the industry knows that and prepares well in advance making sure all the fans have what they need,” he says. “Dairy as a category was up 1.3% from a year ago, but it has been a relatively flat pricing environment for the last 18 months. Consumers and producers have found a good balance overall.

Specific to ongoing trade developments and tariffs discussions, Swanson says the dairy industry is staying keenly aware.

“Exports are a key element for balancing U.S. dairy production and demand. The industry is preparing to see what happens with key markets like Mexico and Canada in the near term,” he says.

He says the same could play out for avocados, which is notable given the tariff discussions on Mexico—our No. 1 source country for avocados.

“The question is, is the supply substitutable. With avocados, we’re seeing a push to grow more in Ecuador, Peru, and Colombia,” he says.

While longer-term supplies may be diversified, it takes years for trees to bear fruit. And for now, per the Wells Fargo Super Bowl Report, avocado prices are up over 11%.
Two other vegetables up year-over-year are red bell peppers (up 7.4%) and prepared carrots (up 3.4%)

So what categories went down in year-to-year pricing?

Notably, some vegetables are down including celery (down 8.4), broccoli (down 7.2%) and cauliflower (down 3.8%).

A more robust supply of potatoes has yielded a decline in potato chips prices, which are 5.1% lower. Also when it comes to overall pre-packaged foods, the container prices have come down, so increases in transport costs aren’t being passed along to the consumer as they have been in the past.

If you’re looking for a “bargain” Swanson points to store brand frozen pizzas.

“Some of those carbohydrate-based components are down through competition. Something like frozen pizzas, for example are down from a year ago. And especially you look at those store Brand pizzas are way down. They’re down about 8% versus just 2% for the national brand. So if you really want to save money, competition is your friend.”
As for protein, the biggest price decline has been in shrimp with a 4% lower price this year than last.

Retail beef prices remain elevated.

“It’s not that we have poor supply of beef. We’re doing some interesting dynamics right now, exporting a little bit less, importing, a little bit more, putting more pounds on those cows,” Swanson says. “We have a decent supply of beef, but the price is still up 3.5% to 4% as a category from a year ago. The consumers love it, and they’re going to pay for it.”

His advice overall in this food economic environment is to stay a smart shopper.

“We’re entering a competitive situation right now–we’re seeing things go up and things go down. If a product matters to you, get out the on the web, shop a couple of stores, because one of the things we do find is promotions are back in the game.”

Villita launches new products

Tue, 15 Nov 2022 07:36:32 GMT

Villita Avocados Inc. has a couple of major projects in the works.

First, the Pharr, Texas-based grower-shipper planned to release its first-ever line of guacamole products and avocado pulp the second week of August, and the company will kick off the first commercial harvest of hass avocados in south Texas within two to three years.

Vertically integrated Villita Avocados grows, harvests, packs and handles the logistics for its avocado program in Michoacan, Mexico, and in Peru, said Aaron Acosta, corporate relationship manager.

“Now we will be adding on processed avocado offerings,” he said.

The new line will include three flavors of guacamole — mild, original and spicy — and plain avocado pulp.

Packaging will range from a 2-ounce single-serve container to a 3-pound foodservice bag.

They will be made completely in-house based on family recipes that have been tweaked for the American consumer’s taste profile, Acosta said.

The company has installed the largest high-pressure pasteurization machine in Latin America in a new Primus Labs-certified facility built next to its packing plant, he said.

The product won’t look like “avocado slurry,” Acosta said.

“It has the consistency — visually and tastewise — comparable to homemade guacamole.”

It will be sold under Villita’s We Love Guac brand.

Villita Avocados also is experimenting with a new program in the U.S.

There have been a few green-skin avocado plots in Texas, Acosta said.

“We’ve taken that a step forward and are now commercializing the first hass orchards in south Texas.”

Villita’s farm in Cameron County has a little more than 100 acres and has planted about 20 acres with trees that are in various stages of maturity.

“We have some trees that are already providing fruit,” he said.

But he does not expect the company to have any significant production for two to three years.

Villita is in the process of tenting most of the acreage to protect the avocados from the sun and heat.

The property is surrounded by water on three sides, which prevents big jumps in temperatures, he said.

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Avocado market peaking with strong Super Bowl demand

Tue, 15 Nov 2022 07:27:33 GMT

With Super Bowl promotions running hot, the avocado market was even hotter in early February.

Size 48-count Mexican avocados crossing through south Texas were $50 to $54 fob on Feb. 4, up from about $26 to $30 per carton the same time a year ago.

Shipments of avocados from all origins were running below year-ago levels, according to statistics from the USDA.

For the week of Jan. 23-29, shipments were 2.71 million 25-pound cartons of avocados, down about 25% from 3.67 million cartons the same week a year ago. For the last week of January, Mexico accounted for nearly 94% of total avocado shipments, with the remaining volume from California, Colombia and the Dominican Republic.

U.S. retail promotions of avocados were reported in 12,800 stores by the USDA on Feb. 4 at an average ad price of 83 cents each. That level of promotion is down compared with the same time a year ago, when the USDA reported 18,588 stores promoted avocados at a comparatively lower average price of 70 cents each.

In a Feb. 4 update, Houston-based foodservice supplier Sysco Corp. reported in its Market Corner report that small avocados were seeing better demand because of an improved domestic market in Mexico. While California shippers were packing in light numbers, significant volume from the state won’t arrive until after the Feb. 13 Super Bowl, according to the report.

“Demand is very high for avocados right now,” said Gary Caloroso, regional business development director for the Los Angeles-based Giumarra Cos .

Volume is expected to be stable, with overall volumes increasing somewhat after the Super Bowl.

Caloroso said demand through the Super Bowl selling period will be strong, with in-store promotions and bin displays featuring Drew Brees from Avocados From Mexico finding widespread use.

“I think it was a record amount of (promotional bins) that Avocados From Mexico sold this year,” he said. “It was a big, big hit.”

An AFM commercial featuring comedian Andy Richter is set to air during the Super Bowl, so social media chatter about avocados is expected to be high, he said.