Why the Next Congress Faces Major Hurdles Crafting the Next Farm Bill

Election results are still being certified in some states, but as the calendar inches toward 2021, Karla Thieman of the Russell Group says American voters sent a clear message this past election.

“It seems like one of the messages the voters sent was they actually do want a divided government, which would make one thing that people are wanting bipartisanship,” she says.

Even with a divided Congress, there are some issues Thieman thinks can still be worked through in the next Congress.

“Infrastructure is one area that a lot of people are hopeful there can be some bipartisan progress and agreement on,” says Thieman. “You might also see some other areas where you have some piecemeal approaches that deal with climate or other things.”

As Congress works to shape the future of agricultural policy with the next Farm Bill, three of the four leaders of the previous Farm Bill will be missing. Sen. Pat Roberts (R-Kan.), Rep. Mike Conaway (R-Texas) and Rep. Collin Peterson (D-Minn.) will no longer be in Washington, D.C. Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) is the only leader remaining on either agriculture committees. And after multiple years of trade aid, followed by coronavirus relief, adhoc government relief has overshadowed farm bill programs.

“I think this next farm bill is going to be one of the most difficult to put together for that reason,” says Thieman. “There has been so much of the ad hoc spending way above farm bill levels. Losing Collin Peterson, Mike Conaway and Pat Roberts in totality, the three of them have 85 years of experience that you're losing, and a good chunk of that was spent as Chair Ranking Member of the agriculture committees. That leaves Debbie Stabenow as the seasoned hand in shepherding this farm bill through the process.”

Thieman says not only will the new leadership need to work through what the upcoming farm bill will include, but members will be under increased pressure to reduce spending.

“The farm bill expires in the first year of the next Congress, so 2023, but I think they're going to want to try to get a head start on it,” says Thieman. “The other dynamic that will make this next farm bill really difficult, I think, is that we are heading into a period of austerity. People are talking about the deficit and how high it is, and that we need to cut government spending. So, the spending levels that have been going out to farmers through the CCC, I just don't see how that continues. And I don't know how you write a farm bill to account for all of that spending, because that's not captured in what's called the baseline and the money that you have to spend in the farm bill.”

A newly appointed Secretary of Agriculture will be tasked with implementing a new farm bill. While several names have been tossed around as a possibility of the next Secretary of Agriculture, Thieman says two names have surfaced as front-runners.

“It seems like the two names that are talked about most frequently in D.C. are Sen. Heidi Heitkamp and Congresswoman Marcia Fudge,” she says. “But as my former boss Sec. Tom Vilsack reminded us, he went through this long process to get named.”

Thieman says considering the past paths of naming the next Secretary of Agriculture, she thinks it’s anyone's guess who is tapped as Agriculture Secretary, but she expects the name to be announced within the next month.