Weather and Flood Forecasts Point to Possibility of Prevent Plant in the Midwest, Northern Plains

Snow continues to pile up across the northern states. Farmers in those areas might be weeks away from planting, but as the markets await USDA's Prospective Plantings report this week, the flood risk is well above normal along the Mississippi River, which fuels concerns about possible prevent plant this year.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) spring flood outlook shows the highest risk for major flooding on the Wisconsin and Minnesota border and where Iowa, Illinois and Wisconsin meet. Moderate flooding is possible across the Mississippi River basin from the northern Corn Belt down through Missouri.

With at least one significant weather system a week across the Upper Mississippi River basin since February, NOAA says the snowpack is mounting. Precipitation has already reached 100% to 130% of normal across southwest Wisconsin. Some areas in the Corn Belt have already seen flooding, with rains causing minor flooding across northeast Iowa along the Turkey River.

It's still early in the year, but with flood forecasts and more snow falling over the weekend across the Northern Plains, conversations about possible prevent plant are also surfacing.

Tregg Cronin, a farmer and market analyst in South Dakota, says it’s too early to talk about prevent plant, but he points out conditions are ripe for planting delays across North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota and Wisconsin. 

“If we're experiencing the same weather conditions three weeks from now, I don't think it's going to be a stretch, and we will have some prevent plant this year. That's almost a certainty in some regions,” Cronin says. “The other thing to remember is a lot of our area ended the year fairly empty on soil moisture. A lot of what we've seen this winter has gone in the ground, so I think we're going to see a nice recharge of soil profiles.”

 As a farmer in an area of South Dakota that was plagued with drought conditions in 2022, Cronin says he’s more concerned about recharging the moisture in his soils than he is about getting into the field at this point in the season. However, there’s a caveat.

"If these forecasts don't change, and we're into the middle of April and still looking at below normal temperatures and snow to melt, then prevent plant discussions are really going to ramp up, which will be interesting with acres already so tight for everything from specialties to corn to soybeans to wheat,” Cronin says. “Everybody needs acres this year. If it does play out over the next few weeks, you're going to start to see markets get a little bit jumpy, I think.”

Thanks to an early snowpack, as well as above-normal temperatures, frost depths are much more shallow than normal, according to NOAA. The snowpack helped limit deeper frosts from developing this winter.

Both Cronin and DuWayne Bosse of Bolt Marketing think even without the discussion of prevent plant, spring wheat acres will be down in the Northern Plains this year. 

“Those reductions in spring wheat acres are at a time we really can't lose spring wheat acres,” says DuWayne Bosse of Bolt Marketing. “I think our stocks are unbelievably tight — we're down to 15-year lows for supplies in spring wheat and we need those acres.”

Bosse resides in South Dakota, an area that continues to get hammered by snowfall.

“With the snowpack up here, and a possibly colder start to the spring, that really puts into question spring wheat acres, and the market’s job might be to make sure those acres get planted. Usually that means higher prices,” Bosse says. “But to Tregg’s point, we are a little early to talk about planting delays. We don't usually see a rally until the May timeframe when the progress reports come out and they show we're behind.”

There have been reports of farmers who increased their prevent plant coverage, which could be another sign farmers in the northern Corn Belt are worried about planting issues this year.

NOAA’s spring flood outlook says snow water equivalent values (SWE) across the upper Mississippi River are the biggest factor leading to their projection of possible flooding this year due to spring melt.

As of March 20, 2023, the SWE amounts across northern and central Minnesota were between 5 and 7 inches. In Wisconsin, that amount is between 6 to 8 inches.

“These values are in the top 10% to 20% of the historical record and are the primary driver of the above-normal chance of flooding along the Mississippi River,” NOAA said in its outlook. “SWE values significantly drop along a line from roughly Austin, Minn. to Wausau, Wis.”