John Phipps: There's a Wildcard in the Electric Tractor Debate

Rural America, and farmers especially are skeptical to put it mildly about electric vehicles. This attitude is reasonable, but it is also myopic. We struggle to grasp what a tiny sliver of the auto market we represent, and how little our contempt for EVs means. Some context might help.

First, global EV adoption is not and will not be driven by US consumer attitudes. China is growing to double the number of vehicles sold annually, which means car manufacturers will take their production lead from them most of the time. China’s market will not be determined by consumer whim, but by their autocratic leadership. The EU is mirroring this EV trend. China also essentially owns the car battery market along with Korea and Japan, not to mention the required raw materials supply. Adoption in the US will struggle to grow until our battery supply chain is more diversified or at least more secure. Americans will be much slower to change, and farmers slower yet. Our minuscule market share will not influence the future.

Second, Americans, and especially rural residents are justifiably leery of EV range, even though our trips are overwhelmingly short, well within EV limitations. From the ever-helpful Visual Capitalist, here is the current situation for that range anxiety. Despite rapid improvements in battery capacity, ICE (internal combustion engines) are really the only practical choice for country people. ICE vehicles have a vast infrastructure for refueling and do so quickly. Recharging stations for EVs are scarce and will be built last in rural locations, if at all. Electrification is not and may never be suitable for large equipment, like farm machinery. The wild card, however, is rural solar power adoption. We have room for arrays which makes an EV logical as a short-range vehicle.

Third, despite our huge size, America has followed a transportation path determined by our inclination for cars and airplanes. We are efficiently positioned to travel short and long distances but are completely lacking a medium distance alternative, namely trains. Consider that China has built 26,000 miles of 200+ mph rail in the last 15 years. EV range matters less with a practical mid-range alternative.

Regardless, given the size of our auto fleet, even reaching proposed EV sales goals means decades before EVs outnumber ICE vehicles on the road.

Read more commentary from John Phipps here.