Acreage Battle Heats up in Northwestern Corn Belt: What will the Acreage Mix Look Like?

Farmers in the northwestern corn belt have had normal to above normal moisture this winter which will play into planting intensions, but so will commodity and input prices. 

Commodity prices are still historically strong to start 2023 but the big difference this spring is input prices like fertilizer have dropped, which will influence acreage decisions.    Theresia Gillie farms near Hallock, Minnesota and says she was able to lock in some of her fertilizer prices last fall.  "I was able to last fall buy my fertilizer when it kind of took that downturn.  Right now, I did put some fertilizer on last fall because we were trying to get a few steps ahead for 2023."  

Supply chain issues are easing and so the availability of inputs including crop protection products is also better than the last two seasons according to Chris Kolstoe, CHS Agronomy Department Manager in Warren, Minnesota. "I would say availability looks better than it did last year.  There's some things that have gone up in price coming into this year and there's some reductions like glyphosate and glufosinate are down compared to a year ago."

So, with this in mind, what do market experts think the acreage mix will look like in the northwestern corn belt and in North Dakota specifically?

Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag says, "You know I think we're going to see more corn acres, especially in the southeast part of the state, last year was a good indication that corn can make it through just about anything.  So, I think we will see an increase.  I think prevent plant will be a little bit lower this year.  That'll help with some of the increase in acreage.  Spring wheat I think is going to lose some average.  I don't see the incentive to plant wheat especially with the losses we've seen as of late, and I think bean acres will see a little bit of an increase."  

Tommy Grisafi, Advance Trading says, "When you talk about North Dakota you've got to talk about Ukraine also because a lot of the oilseeds that can be grown in Ukraine can also be grown in North Dakota and so sunflower, sunflower oil, canola, we have these new plants that are supposedly opening up that this market is on fire for oil seeds and we're going to need every acre we can up here."  

Planting decisions are also influenced by February crop insurance guarantees with lower prices for soybeans and spring wheat verses a year ago.   

Tag - Plus with the diversity of crops that can be planted especially in North Dakota there will be an intense battle for acres.  But of course, Mother Nature has the final say.  I