Prospective Plantings Preview: Seed Sales Point to 90 to 92 Million Acres of Corn in 2021

Just days away from USDA releasing its 2021 Prospective Plantings report, some farmers are still making decisions on what to plant this year.  Early private estimates are already coming in, pointing to possible seed decisions for 2021.

“We got some analysis on those numbers, and it points to 93.4 million on the planet corn acreage adjustment and 88.9 million [on soy] gets you to that 182.3 million total,” says Chip Flory, host of AgriTalk radio.

Pro Farmer’s member survey confirmed what USDA said in February—with improved prices, farmers could plant a record number of acres this year. Though most private estimates point to an increase in total planted acres this year, some say more acres may not be a bearish move.

“90 million is not bearish,” says Flory. “If we would get all the way to 90 million planted soybean acres, it doesn't feel like a bearish number to me.”

It’s not just the record prevent plant acres in North Dakota last year that will come into play in 2020, fall field work in 2020 also saw a record.

“As you compare this year to last year, we saw about a 50% increase in anhydrous applications in the fall of 2020 versus 2019,” says Graham Utter, area sales manager for Growmark.

Utter adds fall fertilizer didn’t get applied everywhere in 2020, and those acres may be up for grabs.

“In the South where farmers did not make those decisions yet because they weren't applying the anhydrous so they didn't have nitrogen on those fields, those are the areas that I think you'll see battle for corn or beans one way or the other; particularly with the way prices have gone up on fertilizer,” says Utter.

Based on current fall and spring seed sales, Growmark says the numbers indicate corn acres could hit between 90 and 92 million this year.

“A little tough to gauge what that actually means to overall corn acres, but we know, particularly in spring, when we get an early start, that usually means more corn acres,” says Utter.

Depending on what the Prospective Plantings report says Wednesday, some acres could still switch for farmers not in the field yet.

“The bean market really acts like it wants to see a 90 number, like it wants to get 90 million planted acres,” says Flory. “If we don't get 90 million planted acres, it feels like maybe the markets are going to make a last-ditch effort and try to get some of those acres bought yet.”

“When you when you get down to it, I think you're probably talking about somewhere around 2 million acres that you really could see go one way or the other, versus what the reports are going to say,” Utter adds.

Related stores on the 2021 acreage battle:

Acreage Battle: Record Fall Fertilizer Applications Need to Factor Into Acreage Debate

Crop Insurance Price Guarantees are Jockeying Acres More than the Futures Market