Forecast Suggests Wet and Possible Severe Patterns into Spring

Since January 12, 2019, AgriTalk host Chip Flory has seen 41” of snow at his Waterloo, Iowa home. It doesn’t look like relief will come anytime soon for him or farmers in the Midwest and Midsouth.

Between Feb. 19 and March 14 Michael Clark of BAMWX is tracking eight storm systems—one of the most active patterns he’s forecasted. The next 10 days could bring another 10” to 15” in parts of the Corn Belt.

“A very busy pattern looks to continue at least for the foreseeable future,” Clark says. “We’ve got a couple big storms at the end of February and then a couple of bigger systems [in] mid-March where we have research even strongly suggesting tornado outbreaks.”

He says this forecast all comes back to what’s going on in the northern Pacific Ocean where there is a barrage of storms. That means the Midwest can expect to see those storms just a few weeks later.

 “I look for this active pattern to be around at least to the end of March,” Clark says. “Right now, it’s probably every three to six days there will be a storm.”

Those in the Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley should keep a sharp eye out for severe weather.

“Western Indian Ocean activity correlates strongly to the pattern here in the U.S.,” Clark says. “Not only does it favor severe weather, but it favors violent tornado outbreaks and I don’t use that term lightly. The southern Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley to the deep south the first two weeks of March and second and third week of March even can really feature some pretty strong storms that are capable of a couple severe weather outbreaks.”

If you’re in the areas he’s predicting severe weather take the time to review your disaster preparedness plans and talk with your families to make sure everyone stays safe.


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