Meteorologist: 2018 Weather Pattern To Parallel 2012
As temperatures heat up across the Corn Belt, many are wondering what’s in store for the remainder of the growing season. In short, it’s going to stay hot and precipitation will likely be limited.
When asked by AgriTalk host Chip Flory to compare what farmers can expect from 2018’s weather to a year in recent memory BAMWX.com chief meteorologist Michael Clark said 2012.
listen “In a nutshell, 2012,” he said. “Do I think it's a severe? No, I do not. Let that be clear. I do not think this is a think repeat by any means, but with all the drivers and everything lining up, 2012 is at the top of my list right now.”
What does that mean for farm country? The heat is going to stick around for a while and rain will be limited. According to Clark, the models continue to show the heat ending and then as the 11 to 15-day period rolls into the six to 10-day period it just keeps getting hotter.
listen “So, the models will say, ‘Hey, it's going to get cold in the east, it's going to cool off, the heats going to back off,’ and then you get into the six to 10 and the heat is still there,” he explained. “So, with that being said, I mean, could there be a relax? You know, the second week of June, it could maybe relax a little bit, but I think that this ridge and the resiliency of this ridge and the heat, especially mid to late June can come back and possibly a big way.”
Overall, he doesn’t see it cooling off in the Corn Belt anytime soon. He expects periods of more and less intense heat, a cycle that resembles La Nina behavior.
listen “We’re coming out of a La Nina, Chip. But just because we're coming out of the La Nina doesn't mean that the atmosphere can't still resemble those characteristics and behavior,” Clark explained. “A lot of what we're seeing is indicating coming into mid to late June that, the La Nina forcing could reemerge.”
In fact, he says the entire country being above normal through the end of July is possible.
listen “I know that's not the popular opinion yet right now, but we feel like it's possible,” he said.
Will it rain? Maybe. listen “The biggest question we need to ask ourselves is ‘Where does this ridge setup?’” explained BAMwx.com meteorologist Kirk Hinz.
For example, next weekend models are picking up on temps around 100 degrees across the central plains and into part of the Ohio Valley, which is extremely warm for June, he said.
listen “What that does is it sets up a really tight thermal gradient. So, it allows moisture to kind of ride over the top of that,” Hinz explained. “To kind of give you a picture to illustrate it, it could be somewhere across like the North Central Plains, a piece of energy can ride over the top of that ridge.”
A storm cluster could ride over the ridge and land in the Ohio Valley, for example.
“That's just a generalized idea. There is moisture possible,” Hinz said adding that precipitation in the Grain Belt will be limited because of the ridge.