Pro Farmer Crop Tour, Day 1: South Dakota Conditions 'Disappointing,' Grain Length Takes a Hit in Ohio
Nearly 90 crop scouts hit the road on Monday to collect growing season information on corn and soybean production potential for the 30th Pro Farmer Crop Tour.
Some fields looked exactly as scouts expected while other fields showed surprises.
Western Leg Yield Estimates and Analysis
Leading up to the week, scouts knew crops on the western leg of the tour were in dire need of water. While recent rain greened up vegetation, some say it’s too little too late, especially for corn in South Dakota. Scouts say day one can be summed up in one word: Disappointing.
A first for me and my counterparts. Herman, NE. No ears. #pftour22 pic.twitter.com/86TVY2yO6p — Jarod Creed (@JrodCreed) August 22, 2022
“When you get into an area where the planting date wasn’t anything spectacular, it was a little bit late,” says AgriTalk Host Chip Flory. “The heat we had during pollination is showing up in ear samples due to shotgun pollination, or not getting pollinated on the butt or tip of the ear.”
Flory estimates the 100-bu. corn yield might get knocked down to 80 bu. due to reduced kernel size.
Western Crop Tour consultant Brent Judisch saw drought stress from the beginning, and said it got worse as he traveled west.
"The corn had major pollination problems, some with 'zipper' ears and no viable kernels," he explains. "This is my 10th time through South Dakota on Crop Tour and it was the worst I've ever seen it by far."
The soybean crop seems to be faring better than corn on the western leg.
5 stops in northeast Nebraska (Cedar, Knox, Pierce, Wayne Counties), 1 irrigated. Average pod count on #soybeans 1119 in a 3x3 foot plot vs the 3yr tour avg in this district of 1181. Not terrible, but many of those pods may not survive without rain soon. #pftour22 pic.twitter.com/3BcFeW4TPn — Karen Braun (@kannbwx) August 22, 2022
“The nodes on these plants are further apart than what you would like to see the nodes or where the pods forming,” says Flory of Monday’s South Dakota beans. “You'd like to see three, four, even five bean pods per node. Instead, we're seeing one, two, maybe three bean pods per node.”
Possibilities of moisture in the area might salvage the bean crop, but Flory doesn’t feel the plants are quite “up and running” yet in South Dakota.
Judisch reports an average soybean pod count of 1,330 and says the crop likely won't finish that strong.
"There are a lot of beans suffering, and many pods will be aborted," he says. "Many bean plants are basically while with leaves upside down and some aborting pods, and that's going to keep happening unless they get rain help very soon."
Eastern Leg Yield Estimates and Analysis
Extreme weather situations, including the annual Derecho, hit regions on the eastern leg of the tour earlier this year. While the eastern Corn Belt might not be nearly as dry as its western counterpart, yield potential looks lower than a year ago, reports AgDay’s Michelle Rook.
Fields were still wet this morning after rain fell over the weekend in Ohio, which should be especially beneficial for the soybean crop. Pro Farmer’s Brian Grete says soybeans were variable, though not as extreme as corn. Pod counts ranged from 650 to 2,500, though most were 1,000 or higher, he says.
Central Ohio farmer Josh Yoder says late planting, replanting and water damage sealed the deal on a lower-than-average soybean crop this year. However, he remains hopeful.
Beans and corn are ‘okay’ in northwest Ohio. But grounds are saturated, pods are small. Decent potential *IF* we start seeing warm dry weather soon. #pftour22 pic.twitter.com/3Vtq575UpQ — forecastguy (Jason Cali) (@forecastguy) August 22, 2022
USDA’s August WASDE report estimated a 57-bu.-per-acre average, which some, including Yoder, are unsure will be attainable.
On the heels of 2021, the best crop Grete has ever seen in Ohio, he says the 2022 crop is “maybe a little better than a typical Ohio crop based on my initial small sample size.” In 2021, corn averaged 185 bu. per acre, which was 16 bu. above the three-year average.
Yoder says their corn APH is around 200 bu., but he thinks they will have fields above and below that mark.
Last 4 stops in Indiana on day 1, getting worse as we move west toward Indy #pftour22 pic.twitter.com/NxgmXJCf1z — Andy Wold (@AndyWold01) August 22, 2022
“We’re going to have relatively low yields on fields that don’t have good drainage. I would say somewhere in the 150-bu. range,” Yoder says. “But I would expect our well-tiled and drained fields will yield early-to-mid 200s.”
Eastern Crop Tour Consultant Mark Bernard says there were a lot of wet fields and standing water. He saw some disease pressure in corn and soybeans, but nothing too serious.
"Right out of the chute, we had a 266 bu. per acre estimate in Marion County and then estimates fell back into a more normal corn yield trend for Ohio in the 150 bu. to 170 bu. per acre range," he says. "Soybean pod counts were variable. We had a high of 1, 824 in Seneca County and then a zero in the same county, which is probably a replanted field that was flowering but had no pods."
Bernard says the overall crop health is decent but it's going to have to dry out and stay on the warmer side.
"This crop will need all of September for full development to occur," he adds. "We saw very little dented corn. In some bean fields, the pods were flat."
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