Markets

Grain Prices Rise as Global Financial Markets Look Past Venezuela

Mon, 05 Jan 2026 19:14:01 GMT

Animal spirits were intact across global financial markets Monday as investors took the U.S. ouster and capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro over the weekend in stride, leaving grain and soy complex traders to focus on exports and South American weather after a weak finish to a holiday-shortened week.

March corn was up 5 1/4 cents at $4.50 3/4.
March soybeans rose 15 cents to $10.60 3.4, with March meal and March soybean oil moving higher.
March SRW wheat was up 6 cents at $5.12 1/2, with March HRW wheat up 8 1/4 cents at $5.23 1/4.

Maduro and his wife were due to appear in federal court in New York Monday to face narco-terrorism charges. The military operation that led to his capture on Saturday led investors to eagerly await the kickoff of Asia-Pacific trade Sunday night to see if the geopolitical jitters would rattle markets.

Gold and the U.S. dollar, both traditional havens, rose in overnight trade and remained higher Monday. But Asian equities also surged overnight and U.S. stocks opened higher on Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average touching a record as it pushed above the 49,000 milestone for the first time. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were also higher. Oil company stocks were among upside leaders. The stock market gains showed that while there may have been some haven-related hedging activity boosting gold, overall risk appetite remained intact.

Crude-oil futures remain the main event, initially falling in Sunday trade after President Donald Trump on Saturday said the U.S. “run Venezuela” and work with oil companies to invest in Venezuela’s long-neglected production infrastructure. “We’re in the oil business,” said Trump, who pointed to increased sales of crude to global customers. Venezuela pumps less than 1 million barrels a day of crude but has the world’s largest proven oil reserves at 303 billion barrels. Crude futures later pushed back into positive territory, with analysts citing continued uncertainty around Venezuela.

West Texas Intermediate crude for February delivery, the U.S. benchmark, was up 67 cents, or 1.2%, at $57.99 a barrel.
March Brent crude, the global benchmark, was up 64 cents, or 1%, at $61.39 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Sunday appeared to play down direct control of Venezuela, saying the administration would maintain a military “quarantine” that gives the U.S. sway over the nation’s ruling regime.

“There’s a quarantine right now in which sanctioned oil shipments – there’s a boat, and that boat is under U.S. sanctions, we go get a court order – we will seize it,” Rubio told CBS’s Face the Nation program Sunday morning.

So what matters for oil prices from here? It comes down to what kind of transition of power takes place in Venezuela, said Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING, in a note.

“Clearly, a prolonged and messy transition increases the risk for supply disruptions in the short term. However, for now, Vice President Delcy Rodríguez has taken over. While her rhetoric was initially defiant, it appears to be shifting already, with statements that Venezuela and the U.S. should work together.,” he wrote. “A smooth transition, with a government which is also more willing to cooperate with the U.S., likely leaves more downside for the market.”

In contrast, a messier transition would put around 900,000 barrels a day of supply at risk, most of which goes to China with U.S. refiners importing a little under 150,000 barrels a day, Patterson said. Losing that supply would justify some upside to current forecasts but the impact would likely be limited given a well-supplied market. Some supply losses have already been priced in since Venezuelan oil exports were pressured in December due to the U.S. blockade of sanctioned tankers moving in and out of the country, he noted.

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Farmers Face Budget Squeeze And Balance Sheet Challenges—Echoes Of A Decade Ago

Tue, 30 Dec 2025 21:13:24 GMT

If heading into 2026 feels a little like déjà vu, you’re picking up the same vibes Chris Barron, president and CEO of Iowa-based Ag View Solutions, is experiencing. He believes the next couple of years will echo the last big downturn farmers weathered a decade ago.

“It’s kind of scary that 2025, ’26 and ’27 look essentially like a repeat of 2015, ’16 and ’17,” Barron says. “If you remember that time frame and made it through, buckle down because I think we’re going there again.”

He says one of the clearest signals farmers are about to experience a repeat of a decade ago is based on the 2026 cost-of-production data from Ag View Solutions’ clients, who are based in 23 U.S. states and three Canadian provinces:

Soybeans: About $11.87 per bushel based on a 65-bu. average yield
Corn: About $4.69 per bushel (before basis) on a 223-bu. average, with many growers needing at least $4.85.

Some growers raising non-GMO seed beans or getting premium contracts can still make soybeans compete. But for many farms, soybeans are the weak link in the current economic cycle.

Right now, Ag View Solutions clients are expected to plant roughly 62% of their acres to corn and 38% to soybeans for 2026 — essentially the same as 2025. Barron says he doesn’t expect many acres to shift away from this mix to more soybeans “unless something really changes.”

Given current price relationships and crop insurance guarantees, Ag View Solutions data shows about a $50-per-acre advantage to corn over soybeans for the year ahead. Even if the dollars trend lower, he says corn often pencils out better because of gross revenue and risk management tools.

More Cost Pressures Heading Into 2026

It’s no secret production costs are increasing heading into the next season. Some of the key factors include:

Overhead costs (what Barron calls ‘”return to management”) for family and employee expenses, including phones, fuel and business-paid personal expenses, are up nearly 5%. After the past year or two of what Barron describes as hard belt-tightening, he says deferred spending is “snapping back” at higher levels.

Land rents are holding mostly steady, supported by higher property taxes and outside investor demand.

Interest expense is climbing as operating lines grow.

Fertilizer costs are a mixed bag. On corn, fertilizer costs are up about 7%, even though Barron believes most farms are staying with removal-rate applications. On soybeans, he says fertility costs will be lower, mainly because growers are putting less fertilizer on their bean acres and leaning harder on corn nutrients.

Machinery and equipment costs are also inching higher for the year ahead.

This Is Not A Repeat Of The 1980s

Despite the “red” many farmers will see on their spreadsheets in the year ahead, Barron says the current period is not a repeat of the 1980s farm crisis, for two key reasons:

Farmer equity is strong. Debt-to-asset ratios remain healthy for many U.S. growers, even if cash is tight.
Many farmer exits are voluntary. Today, many farmers are choosing to retire or scale back in order to protect equity.

Barron offers a recent example: “I got a call the other day on 7,000 acres, a 45-year-old farmer saying, ‘I’m not going to do this anymore. I’ve got a $5 million equity position, and I’m not going to go for a couple more years and chew away another million dollars. I’m just going to be done.’”

Strategies for the Current Climate

To survive — and potentially thrive — in this “repeat” cycle, Barron suggests focusing on these four areas in the year ahead:

Do the high-dollar work. Barron says the “$500-an-hour” work is crunching numbers in the farm office. “Know your true costs, stress-test budgets, analyze each profit center. A few hours spent with good numbers can be worth far more than another round in the tractor,” he says.
Protect yield. He advises against cutting seed, chemistry or other inputs that protect or enhance yield “just to save a few cents per bushel.”
Right-size your operation. Barron says some of the most successful turnarounds he’s seen with operations lately have come when farmers “right-sizes” — they’re doing less, but doing it better — instead of trying to be everything to everyone.
Use collaborative models. Barron says he is seeing more farmers share equipment and labor with their neighbors to spread fixed costs without extra capital.

Opportunity Will Still Knock

During a Top Producer podcast, Barron told Host Paul Neiffer that the tight times ahead will create new land-rent opportunities for some farmers who want to expand. What commonly happens when margins get tight is some farmers pull back, and that’s when expansion possibilities open up for others.

“We’ve had numerous clients call us about opportunities to rent land and not like in small amounts. When times are tight and when things aren’t good, that’s when these opportunities present themselves,” he says.

Barron’s message for those farmers in expansion mode: have your numbers, working capital and lender relationships in order now, so if the right block of ground comes available, you can move quickly and confidently on it.

If you’re interested in the ROI spreadsheet Barron’s team uses to analyze market trends, email cbarron@agviewsolutions.com .

Hear the complete discussion between Barron and Flory on Farm Journal TV . Also, you can listen to the Top Producer podcast discussion between Barron and Neiffer at the link below:

Why Corn Prices Aren’t Responding to Record Export Demand

Tue, 16 Dec 2025 19:45:20 GMT

From record-setting corn exports to unresolved trade negotiations and a new round of federal support payments , grain markets are sending mixed signals as producers begin to think beyond the current marketing year. While headlines point to strong demand and government assistance, underlying supply dynamics and policy uncertainty continue to weigh heavily on market confidence.

WASDE Offers Encouragement, But Supply Still Looms Large

The December WASDE report is typically considered a low-impact release, but this year’s update, released last week, caught the market’s attention with another sizable increase in corn export projections. That adjustment immediately invited comparisons to last year, when a similar move marked the beginning of a multi-month rally.

“We’re watching the price reaction off that WASDE because the similarities to last year are pretty incredible,” says Garrett Toay, principal with AgTraderTalk. “Last December, we had a 150-million-bushel increase in exports — the largest on record. We have 125 million this week. This week last year is when the rally in corn started and lasted through February.”

Despite that demand-side improvement, Toay says the broader supply picture remains difficult to ignore. Ending stocks are still large by historical standards, and upcoming USDA adjustments could reshuffle the balance sheet without meaningfully tightening supplies.

“We still have a fairly large carryout,” Toay says. “If we do get a yield reduction in January when they come in with final production numbers, I still feel there’s enough corn out there to keep the carryout relatively burdensome.”

U.S. ending stocks projections released in the December WASDE report.

(Lori Hayes/USDA Data )

He also notes that much of the demand strength is already embedded in USDA assumptions, leaving limited room for additional bullish surprises.

“We have a 600-million-bushel year-over-year increase in feed residuals,” Toay explains. “There’s a lot of demand that’s kind of baked into these S&Ds that could possibly be whittled away if they do cut supply.”

Record Exports Highlight Demand, But Prices Still Lag

Even as exports surge, corn futures have struggled to reflect that strength, raising questions about where the disconnect lies. For corn growers, the issue isn’t whether demand exists, but whether it’s translating into meaningful price support.

“We’re talking about record corn exports — 3.2 billion bushels — and we’re about 70% above where we were a year ago,” says Krista Swanson, chief economist for the National Corn Growers Association. “We’re off to a great start, but while this is a record in terms of volume, it’s not a record in terms of value.”

That distinction matters, she says, particularly in an environment of high input costs and tight margins.

“One of the problems is how does that value get back to the farmer?” Swanson says.

Looking ahead, acreage decisions will play a major role in determining whether supply growth continues to overwhelm demand gains. Swanson points to the soybean-to-corn price ratio as an early indicator of producer behavior.

“The soybean-to-corn price ratio is coming in really close to 2.5,” she says. “Above that favors soybeans, below that favors corn.”

After a historically large corn acreage year, some pullback appears likely — but even modest reductions would still leave the U.S. with substantial production capacity.

“Coming off such a high corn acreage year, we’re likely to see acres come down a little bit,” Swanson says. “But even if we came down to 95 million acres, that’s still a high corn acre year.”

That reality brings the focus back to demand expansion, both domestically and abroad.

“So, where does the demand come from?” she says. “We’ve seen good progress in trade agreements. Southeast Asia — Vietnam, Thailand — those markets have good potential. Diversified exports are one of corn’s strengths.”

Policy also remains central to that discussion, particularly ethanol blending.

“We are pushing for E15 to get done before Jan. 30,” Swanson says. “That’s the next funding deadline when Congress either has to act or go into shutdown.”

China Trade Uncertainty Weighs On Soybeans

Trade disruptions are a major reason those payments exist in the first place, and nowhere is that uncertainty more apparent than in ongoing negotiations with China. Conflicting messages around timing, volume commitments and enforcement have kept markets on edge.

“It feels like there’s a lost-in-translation aspect of these negotiations,” Toay says. “The White House wants China to buy a lot of soybeans. China wants to end the trade war and appease the White House, but we still don’t have a trade deal signed.”

While China has made purchases, Toay says they don’t reflect a return-to-normal commercial trade flows.

“The purchases we’ve seen have largely been from Cofco and Sinograin,” he says. “Those are government entities, and the beans are going into state reserves.”

Toay says while government entities might be buying, private crushers remain cautious about the current status of trade relations between the two countries.

“I don’t think you see private crushers in China buying U.S. soybeans until we have a trade deal,” Toay says. “There’s just too much risk.”

But he points out that uncertainty has also influenced speculative positioning.

“The funds started getting long when it looked like we were going to have a deal,” he says. “Now, with uncertainty about timing, they’re paring that back. If we get everything signed, sealed and delivered, the funds will know we’re good to go.”

Could Corn Enter The China Conversation?

While soybeans, sorghum and cotton dominate trade discussions, corn could still play a role if negotiations advance.

“I definitely think there’s a possibility,” Swanson says. “China is a big corn producer, but they’re also a big importer.”

She notes questions surrounding China’s domestic supply estimates.

“I’ve heard some rumblings that their corn production maybe wasn’t as big as the numbers indicate,” Swanson says. “If we have a deal, anything’s on the table, even though we haven’t seen that yet.”

Federal Payments Factor Into 2025 Outlook

Beyond market fundamentals, government support is shaping income projections for the coming year. USDA’s recently announced farmer bridge payments are designed to offset trade disruptions and weak prices, and early estimates suggest they could be meaningful for row-crop producers.

“We’re coming in with an estimate of about $45 for corn and $25 for soybeans,” says Gary Schnitkey, agricultural economist with the University of Illinois. “The corn payment is a little higher than the ECAP payment, and the soybean payment is a little lower.”

Schnitkey’s estimates are based on calculations by Nick Paulson of University of Illinois. He estimates the USDA per acre bridge payment will be:

Corn: $46
Soybeans: $25
Wheat: $39
Cotton: $115
Oats: $92
Rice: $134
Peanuts: $64
Sorghum: $48
Barley: $21

While final rules have not yet been released, Schnitkey says the estimates are broadly consistent with other analyses across the industry. When you combine that with anticipated ARC and PLC payments, the amount of government payments that will go on this year’s balance sheets will be significant, but still makes margins tight.

“As we’re looking at incomes for 2025, we’re looking at almost $100 of federal payments [for corn and soybeans],” Schnitkey says. “That gives us a positive income projection for 2025.”

However, those payments largely arrive after expenses have already been incurred.

“That’s also putting about $100 of receivables on the balance sheet,” he says. “These payments are significant, but we will have cash flow issues for a while.”

‘We Need Action, Not Just Financial Aid’

Tue, 30 Sep 2025 16:55:01 GMT

Caleb Ragland describes 2026 as a year of extremes, whether the focus is on U.S. trade policy for soybeans or initial crop yields coming out of his Kentucky farm fields.

The frustration in his voice was palpable as he multitasked on Monday, harvesting with one of his three sons, Carter, in the combine and talking with Chip Flory, host of AgriTalk, at the same time.

“Our corn yields are about 25% below APH (average production history) … and soybean yields are kind of all over the board,” says Ragland, a LaRue County, Ky., farmer and president of the American Soybean Association (ASA).

Poor yield outcomes are no surprise, Ragland says, given excessive spring rains that delayed planting. Then, the water faucet shut off mid-summer, just after July 4, and it never turned back on.

“I’m thankful yields aren’t lower than what they are,” he notes. “It’s disappointing but not unexpected.”

The same is true for U.S. soybean trade opportunities.

Ragland says the soybean industry and farmers have a “five-alarm fire” on their hands, due to the lack of sales to China this year.

Potentially adding to the flames was the Trump administration’s recent pledge of a $20-billion taxpayer-funded economic rescue package for Argentina.

The decision was questioned and criticized by lawmakers on both sides of the political aisle last week.

“Why would USA help bail out Argentina while they take American soybean producers’ biggest market??? We shld use leverage at every turn to help hurting farm economy Family farmers shld be top of mind in negotiations by representatives of USA,” Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) said on X, formerly Twitter.

Argentina Sells Shiploads Of Soybeans To China

The American Soybean Association reports that Argentina turned around and sold 20 shiploads of soybeans to China soon after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced the U.S. was exploring a financial package to shore up Argentine President Javier Milei.

Ragland believes the situation is just a continuation of what’s been going on much of this year: China doesn’t want to buy American soybeans due to ongoing retaliatory tariffs and trade disputes. In the process, U.S. soybean growers are caught in the middle between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and President Trump.

“Unfortunately, I think that’s the situation we’re in, and that doesn’t have a likely, quick, positive outcome,” he says. “But it’s pretty obvious that if we had the opportunity price wise, that our soybeans would sell, but I think that it’s likely a long battle that we’re in for here.”

Farmers Want Opportunity, Not A Handout

Ragland says ASA Economist Scott Gerlt estimates U.S. soybean growers will lose “well over” $100 an acre this year.

Furthermore, Ragland notes that rural communities are suffering from the lack of economic infusion that soybean sales and exports specifically to China would provide. He says when farmers spend money in their local communities, those dollars get turned over six to eight times, supporting small businesses and the entire rural economy.

One answer to the economic pain in rural America is an infusion of financial aid, Trump contends.

He told a group of reporters in Washington last Thursday his administration would “take some of that tariff money that we made, we’re going to give it to our farmers, who are, for a little while, going to be hurt until the tariffs kick into their benefit. So, we’re going to make sure that our farmers are in great shape, because we’re taking in a lot of money.”

Ragland says farmers don’t want to be dependent on the government for aid to meet their financial obligations. It’s a message he has said repeatedly this year in farmer and legislative meetings and to media.

“We have to have opportunities within the market. That’s key, but we’ve got to have a level playing field,” he says.

Even so, a farm aid package is likely in the works. According to an article posted to Politico Trump officials expect “Congress will need to authorize the use of tariff revenue for the farm aid package and are hoping lawmakers will include it in their omnibus package due by Nov. 21. That means the rollout of cash will likely start in early 2026.”

Your next read: Breaking Down the 4 Biggest Challenges Facing the Ag Economy

See Why Crop Tour Scouts Had a Tough Time Measuring Derecho Damage

Thu, 25 Mar 2021 16:37:35 GMT

As Pro Farmer Crop Tour scouts crossed into eastern Iowa on Tuesday, they were greeted by field after field of devastation.

“The (crops) seem to be standing good enough they may make it into the combine,” says Kyle Wendland, an Iowa farmer who spent the week scouting the eastern leg of the tour. “I have my doubt on some of these,” he adds.

Wendland and other scouts were stepping over flattened corn, trying to make sense of what where the crop was planted before the story.

“It’s not a good situation by any means,” he says, trying to measure a damaged field.

Corn stalks tangled together, some kinked, while other stalks were broken and turning brown. Those were some of the sights Eastern leg Pro Farmer scout tour lead Brian Grete saw this week. Grete lives in eastern Iowa, and even he was surprised just how much damage there is.

“It’s a mess out here,” says Grete. “This one had a fermented smell. So, some of those stalks are snapped off. You’re starting to get that smell as you go into the field.”

Corn abruptly turning brown was a sign of a sudden mess for an eastern Iowa crop that showed great promise in early August.

“This corn is dented, so it was maturing pretty rapidly, but now it’s a race against time in terms of how much you can get out of here even on what your potential is left,” Grete adds.

Pro farmer Crop Tour trying to measure potential in recently damaged fields.

“One of the difficulties is we go past the end rows, and then we start pacing out 35 paces, in some of the cases, it’s really hard to tell where the end rows are to begin with,” says Grete.

A difficult job to measure what is damaged and lost, and what can still be salvaged.

“If it’s snapped below the ear, obviously that won’t be able to be harvested,” he says. “In a lot of cases, you have to get down and actually pull the stock up to see what row it’s in to separate them. And then whether or not it has a viable ear still left on it and/or has been snapped off, and the process just takes quite a bit longer than our normal stop would.”

While scouts tried to make sense of it all, area farmers are also trying to hurry and create a game plan for this fall.

“We talked to a couple of farmers yesterday, and they indicated that they’ll go after every bushel that they can,” says Grete. “I’d like to talk to a couple more farmers today to get their opinions as we move further through this wind damage story.”

A tough job for tour scouts trying to measure damage, but an even harder job for farmers who have a slow and grueling harvest ahead.